1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: All right, here we go. 2 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 2: Da Cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, Cody five fifty 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 2: and the kick. 4 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: Is black the college ball stunner. 5 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 2: Oh my godness, he's stumble the. 6 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: Latter turn? Do you The lad. 7 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 3: Came up the day of the night. 8 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 2: It's not the size on the dog in the fight, 9 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: it's the size of the fight in the dog. 10 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 1: Welcome to Big Bets on Campus. I'm your host, Mike Calvary's. 11 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Mike Ianello of the Action Network for 12 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: this week eleven group of five deep Dive. We're going 13 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: to be uncovering all of the moneymakers here in the 14 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: Mountain West Conference, USA, the fun Maction time, all of 15 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: it is on the table for us, and we're gonna 16 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: need it because last week we got our bell rung, 17 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: so to speak. You know, back in the day you 18 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,479 Speaker 1: could say somebody got jacked up, somebody got their bell rung. 19 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 1: I would say, now we're in the concussion protocol because 20 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: we got to beat around pretty good there in week 21 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: number ten, So no need to do a full autopsy 22 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: on where we were wrong. Came up short a few 23 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: one possession losses, but no one really cares about how 24 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: you do it. You know, it's either wins or losses 25 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,680 Speaker 1: on the card, So hopefully we can bounce back here, 26 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: and to do so, we'd like to do a little 27 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: springboard into positivity with our g five heroes of the week. 28 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: I'll get it started here. And this is what I've 29 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: been holding in my back pocket really since mid October, 30 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: just waiting for UNLV to get their first victory of 31 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: the season, and their first victory under Marcus Arroyo, their 32 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: new head coach, which is exciting. YadA, YadA, YadA. The 33 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: UNLV is on the right track. But what I really 34 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about is with a win, now we 35 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: can highlight one of the best gimmicks in college football. 36 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 2: Here comes the Rebel Roller, just unveiled today, a giant 37 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 2: slot machine used in the wake of any UNLV score 38 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: or turnover forced. And the first to pull the lever 39 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 2: is the Chuck Wagon Charles Williams. 40 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: Those kids are sprinting right over to the machine with 41 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: the emblazoned seven oh two area code a top of it, 42 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: pulling the lever. UNLV just spinning out cash, spinning out winners. 43 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: So one of the coolest things going in college football 44 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: right now, and Finally we can talk about it in 45 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 1: a positive light now that they're on the board with 46 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: their first win of the season. This is one of 47 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,679 Speaker 1: those programs that has never really got it together in 48 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: my lifetime. You know, other than Randall Cuttingham in the eighties, 49 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: they haven't had a consistent, dynamic offensive player to kind 50 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: of hang their hat on. I would love to see 51 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: UNLV put together in the Mountain West. Maybe the recruiting angle, 52 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: with the slot machine, the brand new stadium, new head coach. 53 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: Hopefully they can have themselves a good offseason, even if 54 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 1: they just got to Bowl eligibility on an annual basis. 55 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: I think it would be a great story for college football. 56 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: I know, what are you pulling for your G five Hero. 57 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 3: Of the Week from my G five here, I'm going 58 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 3: to go with South Florida backup running back Brian Battie. 59 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 3: I think it's bronounced Batty. 60 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: I believe if we're going to do your G five 61 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: hero justices, it's Beati not Batty. Want to make sure 62 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: we get that on the record so that he can 63 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: play that for hopefully his mother, because we are a 64 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: big podcast when it comes to G five moms. Shout 65 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: out to matt Riza's mom who keeps sitting us up 66 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: on social media. 67 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 3: Brian, he had a explosive twenty nine yard touchdown run, 68 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: also had two one hundred yard kick return touchdowns. Granted, 69 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: South Florida did not win the game, but they at 70 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 3: least covered the spread thanks in large part to Brian 71 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 3: Batty's three touchdowns. And I think he had like two 72 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty total yards of offense, so two one 73 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 3: d kick returning touchdowns. I know we love shouting out 74 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: the specialists on this podcast. Usually it's more of the 75 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 3: kickers or the punters, but I'm gonna give a little 76 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 3: bit of love to a returner here, hero of the week. 77 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna go ahead and jump to our 78 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: best bets here in week eleven. I'm going to start 79 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: with an over and I think this is the time 80 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: of year to really take advantage of defenses that have 81 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: proven through a robust body of work that they can't play. 82 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: And that's why I'm starting with Arkansas State and University 83 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: of Louisiana Monroe. Arkansas State is probably the worst defense 84 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: in the country. No defense gives up more play from 85 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: scrimmage of thirty or forty yards or more, and you all, 86 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,479 Speaker 1: Monroe really needs that. In offense, it's kind of been 87 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 1: a hit or missed. It's been stuck in neutral a 88 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: little bit. In the last couple of weeks. They did 89 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: play well against South Alabama, which is really where this 90 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: play is coming from. From my perspective. Chandler Rogers is 91 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: a quarterback who can' big plays both with his legs 92 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: and with his arm. And the fact that he did 93 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: it against the South Alabama Jags defense that has been 94 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: pretty salty this year. I think there's lots of upside 95 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: and nothing can put you in the driver's seat faster 96 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 1: than facing that Red Wolves defense that as I mentioned 97 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: in previous episodes, they're just bags and leaves out there 98 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: on the parimter. You can run by them, you can 99 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 1: run slants in front of them, whatever you want to do. 100 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: Just get the ball in the air and good things 101 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: are going to happen. And the other part of it is, 102 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: you know you need two to tango when it comes 103 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: to a total like this. Sitting at sixty six, Arkansas 104 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: State's going to throw the ball a lot. They've thrown 105 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: it forty four times per game. But I look for 106 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: a bounce back here because honestly, when you look at 107 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: their last four games, they haven't been contributing to overs 108 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: in the way that you would like to see. They 109 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 1: would give you confidence. And the reason why this is 110 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: my best bet of the week, here's the thing. They 111 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: play the four toughest Sun Belt defenses back to back 112 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: to back to back. They went Coastal Louisiana, South Alabama, 113 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: APP State. Now they face a University of Louisiana Monroe 114 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: defense that's allowing opponents to complete sixty eight percent of 115 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: their passes, one of the worst figures in college football. 116 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: And also, the Warhawks cannot get to the passer, so 117 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 1: they're not going to make life difficult on the two 118 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: quarterback system. The Arkansas State's tried them out there, and finally, 119 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: you got to always think of the pace perspective. Arkansas 120 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: State nearly is the twenty fifth fastest team in the country, 121 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: using Monroe not far behind at thirty seventh. So I 122 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: like a lot of plays, a lot of points here, 123 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: And honestly, if one of these two teams went for 124 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: fifty o and to be shocked, my power rankings call 125 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: for this to be seventy four and a half. So 126 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: sixty six, I think is an over correction by the 127 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: market looking at Arkansas State's recent slate and seeing them 128 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: get handled you pretty easily by the best Sun Belt defenses. 129 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 1: The Warhawks are not that so look for a high 130 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: scoring game here. All right, what do you got? I know, 131 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: let's pair one up for our best bet segment. 132 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 3: So, Mike, before we get in to our best bets, 133 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 3: I just want to take a second and offered a 134 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 3: secere apology. To meet me and UTSA, I had to 135 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 3: pick between our favorite kids. I picked the wrong kid, clearly. 136 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 3: The other one was always the smarter, prettier, more successful child. 137 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 3: That we picked the wrong child. I will never fade 138 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 3: UTC again. That is my promise. And as bad as 139 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 3: last week was and as much as we look like 140 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 3: absolute muppets, I'm not going to quit. However, there is 141 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 3: a team I think very well could quit, and that 142 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 3: is the Temple Owls. I think Temple is an absolute 143 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 3: quit team for me, And at this time of year, 144 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 3: that's kind of how I like to start looking, is 145 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 3: who's giving up, who's quitting on the year Temple started 146 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 3: the year three and two? Eh, you know, beat Acran, 147 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 3: beat Wagner. They did get a good win against Memphis, 148 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 3: I'll give them that. Since then, lost to Cincinnati fifty 149 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 3: two to three, lost to South Florida thirty four to fourteen, 150 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 3: lost to UCF forty nine to seven, lost to ECU 151 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 3: forty five to three. In Temple's last four games, they 152 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 3: have been outscored one hundred and eighty to thirty seven. Yeah, 153 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 3: this team, this team is quit. They're in their third 154 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 3: season under Rod Carey. Here's another best bet for you. 155 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 3: Rod Carey might get fired next Sunday, and if not 156 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 3: next Sunday, at some point this year, they're just twelve 157 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 3: and seventeen under him. They're four and twelve in the 158 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 3: last two years. They're playing the Houston team that has 159 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 3: looked very good. They're eight and one, lost Texas Tech 160 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 3: Week one. They've won eight straight games. Clayton Tune, you know, 161 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 3: I've talked about not really believing on him because he 162 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 3: doesn't make a lot of turnovers, but he's klient of 163 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 3: cleaned that up this year. You know, he's completing seventy 164 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 3: point eight percent of his passes, nineteen touchdowns, six interceptions. 165 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 3: He's got a great weapon in Nathaniel Dell who's averaging 166 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 3: ninety three yards per game with eight touchdowns. They run 167 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 3: the ball well with McCaskill and Henry McCaskill's twelve touchdowns. 168 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 3: The offense is seventeenth to pass success thirty two in 169 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 3: big plays. They're tenth in finishing drives, whereas Temple's defense 170 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: is one hundred and twenty six at preventing finishing drives. 171 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 3: This temple Is offense is a mess. I'm pretty sure 172 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 3: Dewan Mathisk got hurt last week. I don't know that 173 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 3: he's playing. Even if he does play, I mean, who cares. 174 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 3: They're averaging less than seven points per game over the 175 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 3: last four weeks. They rank eighty ninth in rush success, 176 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 3: one hundred and sixteenth in past success, one hundred and 177 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 3: tenth in big plays one hundred and twenty six and 178 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 3: finishing drives. Their special teams are a mess. They can't 179 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 3: tackle at all. And we've talked about the Houston defense. 180 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 3: You know, something we brought up a coop skill is 181 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 3: that we don't know if we believe the Houston defense 182 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 3: because you know, they've just dominated against bad teams. Well, yeah, 183 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 3: Temple's a bad team. This defense drinking seventh in rush success, 184 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 3: eighth in past success. They're number one in the country 185 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 3: at pass rush their twelfth in Havoc. Their D line 186 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 3: is unbelievable. Their d line is so good. David and Ninny, 187 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 3: Derek Parrish, Logan Hall, the Anthony Jones, all these guys 188 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 3: are so good at getting after the quarterback. Temple might 189 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 3: not score here. They honestly might not score point. And 190 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 3: if they do, I can't picture them scoring more than 191 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 3: you know, ten. I'll be shocked if they get to ten. 192 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,200 Speaker 3: So he's in twenty four and a half. I think 193 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 3: they run it up here. We've seen them run it 194 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 3: up the last you know, four weeks. Temple's got in 195 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 3: it run up. Like I said, I think Temple is 196 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 3: a absolute quit team right here. I think there's a 197 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 3: good chance Rod Carey's fired on Sunday. It's not at 198 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 3: the end of the year. So I'll lay the twenty 199 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,199 Speaker 3: four and a half with Houston. I mean i'd lay 200 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 3: thirty with them at the point the way Temples looked, 201 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 3: So I'll lay the points with Houston. 202 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,959 Speaker 1: It's always wise to look for their situational plays, and 203 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: I know that sometimes it's a stretch when you start 204 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: to dabble in that emotion and how players are feeling, 205 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: coaches are feeling. You know, our coaches one foot out 206 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: the door, either in a positive way for a promotion 207 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: to a better job or in a negative way where 208 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: they're coaching for their livelihood. But I agree, Temple just 209 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: does not seem to have that emotional core that they 210 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:33,959 Speaker 1: need to be able to circle the wagons and say 211 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 1: we're not going to go down like this. They're rolling over, 212 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: So I totally agree. I think that's a nice play. 213 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 1: Houston has been a pleasant surprise within the AAC this year, 214 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: certainly exceeding expectations, and even though we tried to poke 215 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: some holes in their cistical resumes throughout the year, particularly 216 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: on the pass defense side of things, Temple's not in 217 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: a position to take advantage of that. So I think 218 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: this would be a nice game for Clayton tune and 219 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: I like that as your best bet here in Week. 220 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:05,719 Speaker 4: Eleven, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for 221 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 4: the money line parlay now for a big money maker. 222 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: We've paired together some underdog parlays here in the past, 223 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 1: so this is our G five deep dive underdog money 224 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 1: line parlay. I'm going to get things started going to 225 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: the Mountain West Utah State plus one to sixty five 226 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: at San Jose State. I'm going to be honest, this 227 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: number didn't make a whole lot of sense to me. 228 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: It's almost as though this was handicapped in twenty twenty 229 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: and not in twenty twenty one. The San Jose State 230 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: has just not been the same team. You know, their offense, 231 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: despite all the they returns and what should have been 232 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 1: consistent quarterback play, has been stuck in neutral and their 233 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: pass defense has really taken a step back. They're allowing 234 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: sixty two point five completion percentage to opposing teams. That's 235 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: seventy seventh nationally. They're not picking off passes, just barely 236 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 1: cracking the top one hundred, and they can't get to 237 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,599 Speaker 1: the quarterback. And that's a really bad combination against a 238 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: Utah State team that's absolutely cooken in the passing game, 239 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: there's seven two on the season, twelfth nationally in passing 240 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: the football. I'm surprised that they're not a bigger story nationally. 241 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: I think what they've been able to do is turn 242 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: things around has been tremendous, and the Logan Bonner Devin 243 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: Thompkins connection is just full on out of control. The 244 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 1: last two weeks, they've connected sixteen times for three hundred 245 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: and ninety one yards and two touchdowns. I see more 246 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:22,319 Speaker 1: of that happening here. It's not going to be easy 247 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: against the San Jose State team that is wont to 248 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: kind of muck things up a little bit and play 249 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: at a slower pace and a lower scoring game. But 250 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: I think they have a punter's chance here, and I'll 251 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: take plus one sixty five. I think that's very, very 252 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 1: generous in a game that my Power Rankings call is 253 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: to pick them. So I'll go ahead and take the 254 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: plus money here with the aggies. I know what are 255 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,199 Speaker 1: we putting together here for our Week eleven money line 256 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:47,439 Speaker 1: under dog parlay. 257 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 3: I'm going back to a team we cashed earlier this year. 258 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell, cue the music. We're going to Club Lit. 259 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 4: The Charlotte forty nine ers. 260 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: Will Heally and coach to Charlotte, Come j miss Club. 261 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: I am missing Club Lit a lot. 262 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 2: Been working extremely hard on my dad vod so look 263 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 2: forward to being I'm gonna be back in there a 264 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 2: newly renovated Club Low. 265 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 3: I'm taking Charlotte plus two hundred at Louisiana Tech. Deck's 266 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 3: another team, you know, maybe on quit watch Skip Holtzy, 267 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 3: maybe on the hot seat. They're two and seven. They've 268 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 3: lost five straight. Charlotte's five and four, and that's another 269 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 3: thing I like to look at this time of year. 270 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 3: They need one more win for Bowl eligibility. They play 271 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 3: Marshall next week and then they play Old Dominion, which 272 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 3: is obviously you know, they're probably lose some Marshalls. So 273 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 3: that means between La Tech and Old Dominion, they got 274 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 3: to win one of those to go bowling. I think 275 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 3: they're gonna know that we've seen Charlotte. They beat Duke, 276 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 3: beat Gardner, Web, beat Middle Tennessee, they beat FYU. You know, 277 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 3: they lost obviously close to to FA. They got blorn 278 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 3: up by FAU, lost to Western Kentucky, and then they 279 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 3: beat Rice in overtime last week in a pretty good game. 280 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 3: You know, Chris Reynolds looked really good. He's been awesome 281 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 3: this year. He's got nineteen touchdowns five and he's actually 282 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 3: second in Conference USA in passing touchdowns. Only Bailey Zappi, 283 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 3: our boy, Baily Zappi, has more passing touchdowns than Chris Reynolds. 284 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,439 Speaker 3: He's everything two hundred and twenty eight yards per game. 285 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 3: He also has three scores on the ground. Charlotte has 286 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 3: two great receivers in Grand Dubo and Victor Tucker. Both 287 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 3: of them are averaging over sixty yards per game. They 288 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 3: got two good running backs. They don't run the ball great, 289 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 3: but they are twenty fifth in rushing explosiveness, so they 290 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 3: do create big plays. And this Louisiana Tech defense is 291 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: one hundred and fifteenth in success rate against the pass 292 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 3: and they're ninety seventh against the run. So Louisiana Techs 293 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 3: defense is futrid and the Charlotte offense is like just 294 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 3: kind of sneaky underrated. And the one area they've kind 295 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 3: of gotten beat a lot this year is on the ground. 296 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 3: They've been really bad at run defense. But LA Tech's 297 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 3: just one hundred and twenty fourth in rushing success rate, 298 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 3: so I don't know they could take advantage of it. 299 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 3: And on the other side of the law Tech Austin 300 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 3: Kendall didn't play last wee. He has a back injury 301 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 3: and there's nowhere to when he's coming back. But even 302 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 3: if he does, I mean, he's not looked as good 303 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 3: as I think people maybe thought he'd be. He's got 304 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 3: thirteen touchdowns nine interceptions this year. US four games, He's 305 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 3: got six touchdowns, six interceptions. He's completing just sixty percent 306 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 3: of his passes of this season. So I mean, Kendall's 307 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 3: not as scary as maybe you recognize the name, obviously 308 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 3: coming from Oklahoma West Virginia, but he really hasn't played 309 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 3: well the last couple of weeks. And if he's out, 310 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 3: then they're starting freshman JD. Head. I don't know about that, 311 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 3: so you know, I guess I this LA Tech team 312 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 3: is kind of reeling. Skip Holtze could be getting hotter, 313 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 3: and Charlott's still fighting for that bowlan LA Tech last 314 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 3: week lost their seventh games, so now they know they're 315 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 3: not going bowling. Charlotte still has that fight. Give me 316 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 3: club let at plus two hundred. 317 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: You know, this partly inching up close to seven to one, 318 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: I think demonstrates the kind of value you're getting on 319 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: these two teams. And honestly, when you're trying to pair 320 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: together underdogs late in the season, it helps when they're 321 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: good teams with clear goals. And I agree Charlotte knocking 322 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 1: on the or a Bowl eligibility. They're clearly gonna play motivated. 323 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: Utah State is having a great season, so there's no 324 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 1: reason for them to pack it in in a road trip, 325 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: you know, to San Jose. So I like both of 326 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: these going together. And I also give you kudos for 327 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: showing some restraint because early in the season you tapped 328 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: Charlotte in that upset against Duke. You were all about 329 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: Club litt but I think you bided your time. You 330 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: waited for the right moment, the right situational spot, to 331 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: get back in with this forty nine er team. So 332 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: I plaud you, and hopefully that patience pays off. You know, 333 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: close to seven to one for us and our listeners. 334 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 4: The G five High five? 335 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 2: Should we high. 336 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 3: Five high five? 337 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: All right now, We're gonna hop to the G five 338 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: High five round robin here in week eleven. That means 339 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 1: a five pack of picks. You're gonna put them in 340 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: a round robin together for you. I'm gonna get things 341 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: started with a team that we haven't mentioned a lot 342 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: on this podcast, just kidding. It is a Utet Minor 343 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: Nation podcast. 344 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 4: We're talking minor nation out in the. 345 00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: West Texans town of l Past So going with the 346 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: Miners minus one bounce it back off of their beatdown 347 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: against UTSA. And here's the thing. They're traveling to North Texas. 348 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: This is a North Texas team that when they play 349 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,959 Speaker 1: quality defenses, they get shut down. And they played two 350 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: this year. They played Liberty and they played UAB. They 351 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: averaged sixteen points per game in those games. The rest 352 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: of the season they average goes to thirty points per game. 353 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 1: So it's a team that feasts on bad defenses. UTEP 354 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 1: is not that they're allowing just fifty three percent completions 355 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 1: against them six point six yards per attempt. And the 356 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: other part of UTEP that I haven't even really touched 357 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: upon much in this podcast this season is that not 358 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: only are they playing a great brand of football on 359 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 1: the defensive side of things, but they're just not penalized. 360 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 1: They're not beating them celts. They're one of the most 361 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 1: disciplined teams in the country. And when it comes to 362 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: what should be a coin flip game, at least by 363 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 1: odds makers, I want the team that has more reliability, 364 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: both in terms of their defense and the fact that 365 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: they're not going to shoot themselves in the foot. Another 366 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: bonus here is that DeAndre Torri the star running back 367 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: for unt is banged up. He was listed on the 368 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 1: depth chart that came out on Wednesday, but he has 369 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: been a limited practice participants. So you're going to want 370 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: to go ahead and keep tabs on that all the 371 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: way leading up to the game because he's a big 372 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: part of their offensive engine and when he's in there, 373 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: he's somebody who can run for over one hundred yards 374 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: and gives them an added dimension Without him, I think 375 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: that's going to be an opportunity for uteph to really 376 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 1: tighten the screws on a North Texas team that I 377 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: think is a little bit overvalued both by bookmakers and 378 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: the public. Because they beat Rice in Southern miss in 379 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 1: the last two weeks. You know, play the kazoo noise 380 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: on that one. Those two teams stink, so I'm glad 381 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 1: that they stuck out wins in those two. That's artificially changing. 382 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: This line should be maybe UTEP minus four or five. 383 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 1: The fact that it's essentially a coin flip and minus one, 384 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and take that value. And then finally, 385 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 1: it's encouraging despite the last two losses that Gavin Harrison 386 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: has thrown five touchdowns across those two games. He remains 387 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 1: boom or bust. He's not a high completion percentage guy. 388 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 1: If he's a fifty five percent, it's a good game 389 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: for him. But he does want to challenge teams throwing 390 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: the ball down the field. So the fact that he's 391 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: put together five TVs through the air in the last 392 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: two I think that boat boats well for a bounce 393 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: back here for a hugeup. All right, I know, let's 394 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: get started on your two picks here for the G 395 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: five round robin. 396 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 3: All right, for my first round robin pick, I'm going 397 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 3: back to play. We tried a couple weeks ago. It 398 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 3: didn't work well. I'm going back to I'm going back 399 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 3: to the Rainbow Warriors. Give me Hawaii minus three at UNLV. Look, 400 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 3: I know UNOV got that their first win last week 401 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 3: against New Mexico, but I mean this is still a 402 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 3: un V team that's you know, one hundred and nineteenth 403 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 3: in sp plus, they're one hundred and twenty first in 404 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 3: offensive success rate. This is just too short of a 405 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 3: number against the UNLV team. Why he's thirty third in 406 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 3: exposed to this on offense, I expect a really big 407 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 3: game from Calvin Turner here. I don't think this UNLV 408 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 3: defense has anybody that can stop him. I really hope 409 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 3: Data Hunter is back for this play. There's you know, 410 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 3: they're kind of not sure when they'll be back. They 411 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 3: keep going. They've been going to day to day for 412 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 3: like four weeks, so it's point that day has to come. 413 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 3: And ideally if he's back, that's huge for this offense. 414 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,360 Speaker 3: Like I said, you know, the defense is very bad 415 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 3: against the pass, and Cordero has been better. I still 416 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,199 Speaker 3: don't love him, but I trust him a lot more 417 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 3: than Cameron Friel, who's been playing because Brumfield's still Hurtel's yeah, 418 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 3: just eight. He has eight interceptions this year and just 419 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 3: six touchdowns. And Hawaii leads the Mountain West with twenty 420 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 3: one takeaways. So if you turnover prone, playing against the 421 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 3: Hawaii defense is probably not good because they've been really 422 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 3: good at taking away the ball. Yes, Hawaii also turns 423 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 3: the ball over, but you know, he's not as good 424 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 3: as taking the ball away as Hawaii is. And like 425 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 3: I said, I trust Cordero more than I trust Friel, 426 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 3: and I just think the weapons that Hawaii has and 427 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 3: their explosiveness is way too much for you know, via handle. 428 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 3: I'll lave the three here with the Rainbow Warriors. 429 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, the rebel roller will still be there on the sideline. 430 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: I just don't know how many times they're going to 431 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: cash in against a Hawaii team that's traveling to the mainland. Yes, 432 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 1: there are a bit of concerns, but in a lot 433 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: of cases when White's does come to the mainland, those 434 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 1: are lower scoring games, and I think the Rainbow Warriors 435 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: have proven that they can grind out some wins this season. 436 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: Let's not overreact to you, and I'll be finally getting 437 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: on the board. I like that play. Let's keep it going. 438 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: What do you have next? 439 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 3: All right? For my last play, I'm gonna cheat a 440 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 3: little bit and I'm just gonna play a nice favor 441 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 3: on the money line, and I think has a pretty 442 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 3: good chance to cash this. I don't really want to 443 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 3: lay the four and a half points, so instead I'll 444 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 3: play Marshall minus two hundred against UAB. First, let's talk 445 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 3: on the field. Marshall stumbled early in its first year 446 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 3: under Charles huff. Over the last four games, they are 447 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 3: four to zero and they have outscored their opponents one 448 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty five to forty seven. That's important to 449 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 3: me that they're finally, you know, obviously new system. New coach. 450 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 3: Grant Wells is a quarterback who is super frustrating to 451 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 3: bet on. I will admit that he's very inconsistent, but 452 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 3: I still trust him more than I trust Dylan Hopkins. 453 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 3: Well has eleven touchdowns and eleven interceptions this year. Not great, 454 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 3: but he has twenty three big time throws and twelve 455 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,719 Speaker 3: turnover worthy plays, whereas Hopkins has just nine big time 456 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 3: throw in ten turnaver worth he plays. The main reason 457 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 3: I like this Marshall offense, though, has been the emergence 458 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 3: of freshman running back Rashene Ali. This dude is unbelievable. 459 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 3: He leaves the country with seventeen rushing touchdowns. He has 460 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 3: two touchdowns in each of the last three games and 461 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 3: six multi score games this year. Shocker a stud running 462 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 3: back under Charles Sooft. For those of you that don't know, 463 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 3: Huff was the running backs coach at Penn State for 464 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 3: Sakwon Barkley and Miles Sanders, and then he was the 465 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 3: running backs coach at Alabama for Najie Harris. He just 466 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 3: you know, talent under him thrives at running back. So 467 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 3: Rashine Ali has been terrific, and in uab's three losses 468 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 3: this year, they've allowed an average of one hundred and 469 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 3: seventy two point seven rushing yards, so when they beat 470 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 3: on the ground, they've lost. And I love this Marshall 471 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 3: offense again hoping wells plays well because he is very 472 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 3: hot and cold, but if he's on, he's pretty hard 473 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 3: to beat. UAB offense is just sixty fifth in past success. 474 00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 3: They're seventy first and finishing drives, and this Martiall defense 475 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 3: is seventh at preventing finishing drives. So I think a 476 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 3: AB is gonna struggle the score once it gets the 477 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 3: ball pass to forty and Marsh's gonna be able to 478 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 3: do enough to keep them out of the end zone. 479 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 3: This is also, you know, looking more at the off 480 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 3: the field motivation aspects, there's two big ones here. A 481 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 3: Marshall lost twenty two to thirteen to ua B in 482 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 3: the Conference USA Championship last year, so you have the 483 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 3: big revengee factor and that was the first loss UAB, 484 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 3: first loss to UAB at home that Marshall has taken. 485 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 3: They are eight and three against UAB in in this 486 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 3: series and five and one at home in their eleven meetings. 487 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 3: So that was the first loss. You can bet they're 488 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 3: gonna want to bounce back and avenge that. This second 489 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 3: factor Saturday is November thirteenth. November fourteenth, the next day 490 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 3: is the anniversary of the team playing Crash. Marshall is 491 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 3: wearing helmets with the names of the seventy five people 492 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 3: who died in that playing crash. I always love little 493 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 3: factors like that. You know they're gonna be talking about 494 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 3: the story all week. They'll probably talk about it in 495 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 3: the locker room. I think that'll be a big touching point, 496 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 3: and just too on the anniversary of this of the crash. 497 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 3: Last year, they whooped Middle Tennessee forty two to fourteen, 498 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 3: and like I said, I also think they're going to 499 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 3: want to avenge the conference championship loss. And they're just 500 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 3: playing really good football, so all factors tightened. Gimme Marshall 501 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 3: against UAB. 502 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: You might be surprised me a bit this year. Expected 503 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: more from their defense. Bill Klark has generally put together 504 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 1: a pretty consistent brand of football, but they've been up 505 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 1: and down a lot this year, and those emotional elements 506 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: for Marshall and really Grant Wells. I'm a big Grant 507 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: Wells fan. I think, honestly, if you know they didn't 508 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 1: have Ali in the backfield and featured him a little 509 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 1: bit more, he'd be a top ten kind of passer 510 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 1: in the country, and certainly someone who would be mentioned, 511 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 1: you know more on podcasts like this talking about the 512 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 1: G five. But I want to give Grand Wells his shine. 513 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: I think he deserves it all right to finish out 514 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 1: the G five High five round robin here in week eleven, 515 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,639 Speaker 1: I got two and we're going to go back to 516 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 1: the well. We already mentioned you tep, so you know, 517 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 1: not far behind is Bailey Zappi. 518 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 4: Bailey ZAPPI, pull out. 519 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 1: Your zap guns because Western Kentucky is going to score 520 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: a lot of points on Saturday. I like them over 521 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: their team total of forty and a half depending on 522 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: the book you're looking at, essentially any number below that 523 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: six touchdown threshold, I like them to go over. You know, 524 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: since they flipped over the conference to USA play, they're 525 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: averaging forty three point two points per game. They're even 526 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 1: adding in a little bit of balance Adam Cofield before 527 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 1: he went down Noe Winnington as well, just giving them enough, 528 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 1: you know, in that fifty sixty yard per game range. 529 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 1: From you know, their featured running back that gives them 530 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: a little bit of balance to go with Zapi and 531 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,959 Speaker 1: Jared start into the passing game that's been so dynamic. 532 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 1: They're up again. It's a Rice past defense that just 533 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 1: isn't very good. You know, they're not going to slow 534 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: this train down. And from you know, a ball security 535 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 1: long drive perspective. I'm not sure that Rice is going 536 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 1: to be able to muck this game up enough to 537 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: prevent the Western Kentucky offense from getting hot, because really 538 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: this is an offense that they gets score four touchdowns 539 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 1: in a quarter. You know, just give Zapi the opportunity 540 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 1: to get cooking. And you know that's been a good 541 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 1: bet of season. So I'm not going to overcomplicate it. 542 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the treads year and I love 543 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,680 Speaker 1: the Hilltoppers to score a lot against the Elves. 544 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 4: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the pride of the commonwealths. 545 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 2: Oh no, no, hell no, oh no, hell no. 546 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: And then finally, a MAC game that's being played to 547 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:30,399 Speaker 1: night on Wednesday nights in central Michigan. Mount pleasants be 548 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 1: kidding me, now, this is peak maction. It is peak maction, 549 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: the Golden Flashes. I mean they've gone thermonuclear since mac 550 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: plays started. Thirty eight points per game in mac play 551 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 1: last four games for Dustin Crumb eight passing touchdowns, six 552 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns, zero turnovers, and then he throwing markuz Cooper. 553 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,360 Speaker 1: He's had three one hundred yard games mac play six 554 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,200 Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns since conference play has started. So they have 555 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: that balance as well, and the Central Michigan defense is 556 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 1: not equipped to slow that tow on their ninetieth and 557 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,440 Speaker 1: total date, one hundred and twenty first in plays of 558 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 1: twenty yards or more and one hundred and twenty fourth 559 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: in place of thirty yards or more. So, if you 560 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 1: saw that Kent State game against Northern Illinois last week 561 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 1: where they were going up and down the field, hit 562 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: in huge plays, there was a massive scoring outbreak in 563 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 1: the second quarter, I think you're going to see something 564 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: similar here. It's going to be a shootout. The question 565 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:23,640 Speaker 1: is ken Kent State and their ragtag paper mache defense 566 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: hold just long enough to get off the field a 567 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,880 Speaker 1: couple times in this game or force a few turnovers 568 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: because they're going up against running back from the Chips 569 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: Lou Nichols the third. He's averaged one hundred and seventy 570 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,360 Speaker 1: yards per game on the ground in his last four 571 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 1: and the only way they're going to stop it. It's 572 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 1: not run into the football, it's not putting extra guys 573 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: in the box. It's game flow. And here's the thing. 574 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: When you look at Kent's box scores in the last month, 575 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 1: when they jumped ahead of Ohio, when they got ahead 576 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 1: on Northern Illinois, and they flipped that game flow and 577 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 1: took the running game away just by virtue of teams 578 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: trying to play catch up. They kept both of those 579 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,439 Speaker 1: opponents under one hundred and fifty rushing yards and they 580 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,120 Speaker 1: won those games. In the cupboard. When Western Michigan got 581 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 1: rolling and they were able to lean on the running game, 582 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:07,679 Speaker 1: they went well over three hundred yards against this Kent 583 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: State team. So the offense here is really doing double 584 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: duty for Kent State. Not only are they going to 585 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: jump out to a lead hopefully and put the pressure 586 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 1: on Central Michigan, but they can also, you know, de 587 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: facto take the running game away. That's what's going to 588 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: be needed here. I'm going to keep going with Dustin 589 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 1: Crumb and the Golden Flashes. 590 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 3: Love it, Love the lineup. I think we're having a 591 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 3: bounce back week. I can feel it on my bones. 592 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,480 Speaker 3: Mactions back. We're back. Let's let's bounce back this week. 593 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: That's crack ship for Sidify right now. For a quick 594 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: rundown on all our picks in one handy place. For 595 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: our best bets, we like Houston lane twenty four. 596 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 4: The Houston Cougars, Arkansas. 597 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 1: State and Louisiana Monroe over sixty six. 598 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 4: Louisiana Monroe Warhawks govers. 599 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 1: Our underdog moneyline parlay combines Charlotte plus. 600 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 4: Two hundred the Charlotte forty nine ers. 601 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 1: Utah State plus one sixty. 602 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 4: Five the Utah State Aggies for a. 603 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: Payout just shy of seven to one, and for a 604 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,560 Speaker 1: G five high five round robin. Here in week eleven, 605 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: we like Marshall minus two hundred on the money line. 606 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: I want to talk about our opponent this afternoon. 607 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,720 Speaker 3: On paper, they're just better. 608 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 1: I don't want to tell you something that they don't know. 609 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 1: They don't know your heart. Hawaii laying three on the. 610 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 4: Mainlands, the Hawaii Warriors. 611 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 1: UTEP minus one. 612 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 4: We're talking minor nation. 613 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: The Western Kentucky team total over forty eight and a 614 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 1: half Bailey Zappi and Kent State minus two and a 615 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 1: half the. 616 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 4: Kent State Golden Flashes. 617 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 1: All right, that's it for the week eleven episode of 618 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: the Group of Five Deep Dive under the Big Bets 619 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: on campus banner. A reminder to our listeners that you 620 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 1: can catch Stucky and colin Thursday night and Friday mornings 621 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,719 Speaker 1: breaking down the entire college football card. On Saturdays. They 622 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 1: also have a live show Saturday Mornings which is can't 623 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: miss where they get into all the final tweaks and 624 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 1: alterations to their full cards, injuries, coaching changes, anything that 625 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 1: is brewing they're going. 626 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 2: To be on top of. 627 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 1: And now that we are adding in a whole other layer, 628 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: which is college basketball to the buffet that is this 629 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: collegiate sports gambling content machine, the three man weave every 630 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 1: single week on Wednesday morning, so be sure to catch 631 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: that as well. For Mike, I know, I'm Mike Calvary's 632 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 1: thanks so much for listening.