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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting CROs PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined as always by mister bau mcbrair.

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Speaker 2: The PGA tour heads north of the border. This week.

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Speaker 1: We are going to preview the RBC Canadian Open from

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Speaker 1: a betting perspective. We'll also do a very quick recap

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Speaker 1: of the Charles Schwab Challenge and at the end of

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Speaker 1: the show we will give you our one and done

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Speaker 1: picks for the week. The Betting Pros PGA podcast is

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Speaker 1: sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is the place to go

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Speaker 1: for fantasy football basketball contest, but you might not have

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Speaker 1: known that Underdog has golf contests too. Visit Underdog Fantasy

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Speaker 1: dot com or find Underdog in the app store, and

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Speaker 1: don't forget to register with the promo code BP Golf

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Speaker 1: to claim your special pick and to get a first

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Speaker 1: time deposit offer up to two hundred and fifty dollars

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Speaker 1: in bonus cash.

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Speaker 2: More on Underdog and its golf contest.

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Speaker 1: A little bit later, before we get to the recap

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Speaker 1: of the Charles Schwab Challenge. The golf world was shaken

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Speaker 1: by the news that Grayson Murray had taken his own

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Speaker 1: life on Saturday in the field at the Charles Schwab,

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Speaker 1: but withdrew after Friday during his Friday round, citing illness.

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Speaker 1: Then came the shocking news at the start of Saturday's

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Speaker 1: telecast that Murray had died. Murray won the Sony Open

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Speaker 1: back in January, the second PGA Tour win of his career.

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Speaker 1: Murray had publicly acknowledged his battles with depression and alcoholism.

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Speaker 1: I can't imagine how difficult it would be to deal

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Speaker 1: with those demons in addition to the immense pressure of

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Speaker 1: being a tour pro. Rest in peace, Grayson Murray Davis

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Speaker 1: Riley won the Charles Schwab Challenge. It was the first

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Speaker 1: solo win of his career. Riley's only previous tour victory

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Speaker 1: came in last year's Yer Classic of New Orleans, the

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Speaker 1: two man team event that he won with Nick Hardy

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Speaker 1: and Riley won comfortably at Colonial, finishing five shots ahead

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Speaker 1: of Scotti Scheffler and Keegan Bradley. Riley was fourteen under par,

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Speaker 1: the lowest winning score at Colonial since Jason Cookrak also

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Speaker 1: finished fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Under to win in twenty two. Twenty one.

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Speaker 1: We certainly weren't on the Davis Riley Bandwagon last week BO,

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Speaker 1: and there was really seemingly no reason beyond him going

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Speaker 1: into the Charles Schwab. He had missed the cut in

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Speaker 1: half of the fourteen events he had played this year

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Speaker 1: and had just one top twenty five all season, a

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Speaker 1: tie for fourteenth at the Houston Open. I think everyone

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Speaker 1: was expecting Scotty Scheffler to tackle Davis Riley from behind

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. I mean Scheffler opened the tournament with the

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Speaker 1: two over par seventy two on Thursday, then carted a

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Speaker 1: sixty five Friday into sixty three on Saturday to get

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Speaker 1: within four shots heading into the final round. But Scotty

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Speaker 1: just couldn't get anything cooking on Sunday, one over par

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Speaker 1: on the day and didn't make his first birdie until

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Speaker 1: the thirteenth hole, so he never seriously threatened BO.

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Speaker 2: Any takeaways from Davis Riley's win at Colonial.

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Speaker 3: Tip your cap to that guy. Y had his great,

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Speaker 3: great four rounds put together, and that's kind of what

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Speaker 3: you can expect every once in a while on the

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Speaker 3: PGA Tour. All of these guys are so good that

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Speaker 3: even a guy who came in seventy third in my

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Speaker 3: model still has a chance to win. His stats didn't

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Speaker 3: tell you that it was gonna come that week at

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Speaker 3: that golf course. But all of those guys are capable

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Speaker 3: of putting it together for four rounds like he did,

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Speaker 3: and not just that, but not just put Scotti Scheffler away,

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Speaker 3: but to pretty much just act like he wasn't even

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Speaker 3: there in the same final pairing. That was impressive enough,

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Speaker 3: as Scotty was battling his own swing for the first round,

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Speaker 3: and then of course he did his normal gist on

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Speaker 3: Friday and Saturday, and then on Sunday, it kind of

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Speaker 3: looked like Scotty was the one putting more pressure on

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Speaker 3: himself than was actually there. Because in a realistic situation

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Speaker 3: where you're guessing what's gonna happen, Scotti Scheffler is the

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Speaker 3: one that chases down the guy who only has one

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Speaker 3: tandem win in his career. But those guys have been

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Speaker 3: competing against each other since junior days. They showed back

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Speaker 3: at the US Junior Amateur when Scotty bested Davis Riley

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Speaker 3: down the stretch of that tournament, and it just it

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Speaker 3: just goes to show that you never know who's gonna win.

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Speaker 3: And and just to address the Grace and Murray thing.

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Speaker 3: That's just it's so sad because everybody has their own demons.

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Speaker 3: Everybody's going through their own stuff. Some of them completely

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Speaker 3: do it in silence. They try to hide it from everybody,

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Speaker 3: even the ones that love them the most. And Grace

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Speaker 3: and Murray wasn't that he was outward with it. He

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Speaker 3: let everybody know what he went through and he's still

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Speaker 3: it still wasn't enough to calm it down. So I mean,

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Speaker 3: that just goes to show that there's people out there

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Speaker 3: everywhere you look that are going through their own stuff.

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Speaker 3: So just be nice, be nice to everybody, be nice

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Speaker 3: to yourself. That's the tough part, being nice to yourself,

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Speaker 3: giving yourself some grace. That's the hardest thing in the

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Speaker 3: world to do right now, That's that's all you can do.

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Speaker 3: Take away from that is when somebody like that, who's

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Speaker 3: outward with their own troubles succumbs to that illness, that's

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Speaker 3: that's that's that's a tough pill to swallow for the

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Speaker 3: whole golf commun unity and anybody who's come across somebody

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Speaker 3: who's battling depression.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, said Bowie. Was a tough week for the PGA.

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Speaker 1: Tour for sure, and we saw some nice testimonials from

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Speaker 1: some of you know, from some of Grayson Murray's friends

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Speaker 1: on the tour.

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Speaker 2: Peter Malnatty gave a really.

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Speaker 3: Nice yeah, he played with them in the first two days.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a tough week for sure.

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Speaker 1: We will get to the RBC Canadian Open in just

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Speaker 1: a minute, but first, our friends at Underdog Fantasy are

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Speaker 1: letting you make picks on your favorite golfers all season long.

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Speaker 1: Just pick higher or lower on selected stats for two

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Speaker 1: to five golfers and you can win up to twenty

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Speaker 1: times your money in a single day. You can also

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Speaker 1: make rivals picks, choosing, for example, which of two golfers

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Speaker 1: will shoot a better score in a round. Golf picks

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Speaker 1: can be combined with player stats from other sports too.

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Speaker 1: Go sign up at Underdog Fantasy with the promo code

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Speaker 1: a first time to posit off er up to two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus cash. Let's see if

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four RBC c Canadian Open can match

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Speaker 1: the excitement of last year's Canadian Open, when Nick Taylor

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Speaker 1: rolled in a seventy two foot eagle pot to beat

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Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff and become the first Native

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Speaker 1: Canadian to win the Canadian Open in sixty nine years.

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Speaker 1: The Canadian Open is returning to the Hamilton Golf and

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Speaker 1: Country Club. It was last played there in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 1: when Rory McElroy finished twenty two under par and basically

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Speaker 1: lapped the field, winning by seven shots. Rory shot at

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Speaker 1: sixty one on Sunday. The tournament's only been played in

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Speaker 1: Hamilton three times in the last twenty years. Scott Pearcy

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Speaker 1: won there in twenty twelve, finishing seventeen under par, and

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Speaker 1: Jim Furick won in Hamilton in two thousand and six,

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Speaker 1: finishing fourteen under par. The Hamilton Golfing Country Club is

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Speaker 1: a par seventy covering seven thy eighty four yards. Despite

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Speaker 1: the low winning scores here, Hamilton isn't a complete pushover.

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Speaker 1: The cut line was minus two in twenty nineteen. Minus

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Speaker 1: won in twenty twelve. It's not really a bombers course.

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Speaker 1: In twyd nineteen team the top ten was littered with

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Speaker 1: players who had a high percentage of fairways during the week,

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Speaker 1: and Rory and Sung J. M were the only players

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Speaker 1: in the top ten who gained strokes in the driving

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Speaker 1: distance category that week.

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Speaker 2: Putting is going to be key.

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Speaker 1: Hamilton's got big, undulating greens, ben grass that are going

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Speaker 1: to challenge the pros. And as noted by John Hasselbauer

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Speaker 1: of the Lions, when Rory won in Hamilton in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 1: each of the top six finishers in that event finished

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Speaker 1: in the top seven in strokes gained putting.

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Speaker 2: So I think that's telling.

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Speaker 1: But what do you make of the Hamilton Golf and

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Speaker 1: Country Club and what sort of players do you expect

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Speaker 1: to farewell there?

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Speaker 3: Ball strikers. This is a it's a great ball strikers course.

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Speaker 3: And yes, Rory McElroy is a longer hitter than most

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Speaker 3: of the people at any tournament. And even though the

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Speaker 3: advantage here is not to the bomber, it's to the

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Speaker 3: guy who can put the ball in the fairway. Rory

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Speaker 3: is a great combination of distance and accuracy. That's what

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Speaker 3: we saw at Quail Hollow a few weeks ago. That's

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Speaker 3: what we're probably going to see here, where the best

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Speaker 3: players are gonna hit more fairways, they're gonna hit more greens,

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Speaker 3: They're going to be closer to the pin, and that

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Speaker 3: is kind of what goes kind of underneath the stats

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Speaker 3: from twenty nineteen is Rory McElroy made all sorts of putts,

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Speaker 3: but they're mostly from makeable distances. He didn't really have

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Speaker 3: to do much battling. He was on fire. He like you,

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Speaker 3: went sixty to sixty one on the final round. He

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Speaker 3: was making everything. He was sticking it close from everywhere.

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Speaker 3: And if you can get a guy who can find

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Speaker 3: the fairway put himself within a good putting distance for

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Speaker 3: birdy opportunities, those undulating greens. Yes, you want to have

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Speaker 3: a good putter, or at least a hot putter, but

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Speaker 3: it's not going to matter as much as we think.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be the great equalizer. It's going to

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Speaker 3: be your tiebreaker of sorts. But I'm looking at ball strikers.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at guys from tee to green who are

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Speaker 3: hot right now, who are playing well, and maybe who

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Speaker 3: have a little bit more chip on the shoulder for

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Speaker 3: this exact event. I'm looking at you, loonies.

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Speaker 1: We will get to the odds in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: and we'll talk more about Rory in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: But first, if you want a chance to win a

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Speaker 1: free one year premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment

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Speaker 1: below in this video and that's it. We'll be announcing

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Speaker 1: a winner right here on the channel, so make sure

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Speaker 1: to turn on those notifications so you can be alerted

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Speaker 1: when new episodes are up and to claim your prize now.

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Speaker 1: For the odds, These are courtesy of DraftKings. As of

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Speaker 1: Monday afternoon. Rory McElroy opens as an overwhelming favorite at

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Speaker 1: plus three sixty.

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Speaker 2: No surprise there.

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Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood is plus sixteen hundred, see Heath Degalis plus

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Speaker 1: eighteen hundred. Shane Lowry and Cameron Young and Alex Norin

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Speaker 1: are plus twenty two hundred, Corey Connors and Sam Burns

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Speaker 1: plus twenty five hundred, Adam Scott plus three thousand, Keith

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Speaker 1: Mitchell plus thirty five hundred, Maverick McNeely plus four thousand,

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Speaker 1: and at plus forty five hundred, we've got Aaron Raie Mackenzie, Hughes,

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Speaker 1: Davis Thompson, Tom Kim and Akshay Battia. Who do you

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Speaker 1: like from this group? Boh, when do you see any

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Speaker 1: value in betting Rory at such short odds plus three sixty.

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Speaker 3: In a way, yes, but I'm also gonna be kind

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Speaker 3: of giving him the Scottie Shuffler treatment, where if he

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Speaker 3: starts off a little slow, we know what he's done

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Speaker 3: at this golf course in the past, so I wouldn't

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Speaker 3: really put him out of reach at any stretch. So

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Speaker 3: where last week it didn't quite pan out where we

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Speaker 3: got Scotty at ten to one after Thursday's overpower round,

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Speaker 3: he jumped all over that and Scotty came up just short. Rory,

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Speaker 3: if he shows up and is a little off on thursdayance,

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at the same kind of thing where if

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Speaker 3: he falls to eight or ten to one, then I'm

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Speaker 3: pouncing because Rory is the class of this field and

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Speaker 3: it's a pretty top heavy field. Other than that, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna skip most of these top guys because I think

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Speaker 3: they're way too short. And I really do think that

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Speaker 3: you're gonna see a good variety of long shots chase

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Speaker 3: this win. It's not gonna be. It might be just

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Speaker 3: like last year where Nick Taylor came out of nowhere

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Speaker 3: to win this thing over a guy who supposed to win,

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Speaker 3: Tommy Fleetwood. This is it's gonna be that same kind

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Speaker 3: of thing. I think this course is very fair and

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Speaker 3: it's going to reward the hot guy that gets hot

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Speaker 3: from beginning to end. And I don't necessarily favor anybody

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Speaker 3: at the top, but Corey Connors is where I start

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Speaker 3: twenty two to one, twenty five to one, somewhere in there.

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Speaker 3: Him and Sam Burns are the miss prices here. And yes,

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Speaker 3: Corey Connors is a terrible putter, but everywhere else in

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Speaker 3: his game, this guy is nails, great off the tee, great, great,

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Speaker 3: great on approach. We're talking one of the best approach

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Speaker 3: players in the world, and his short game has improved

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Speaker 3: this season. His putting is terrible, but I don't put

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Speaker 3: as much stock on that, but I expect him to

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Speaker 3: be closer to the pin than a lot of his contemporaries.

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Speaker 1: Bau mcbray is finally on Corey Connors, and it's a

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Speaker 1: week where first time for everything, right, Yeah, exactly, And

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Speaker 1: I'm normally the big Corey Connor stand and I'm not

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Speaker 1: feeling it, Paul. I feel like I feel like putting

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Speaker 1: is going to be too important this week. And granted,

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Speaker 1: Corey Connors is an amazing ball striker, maybe he just

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Speaker 1: you know, shines through so much in that department, the

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Speaker 1: putting doesn't matter as much.

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Speaker 2: But man, I worry about the putting.

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Speaker 1: Getting back to Rory for a second at plus three sixty,

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Speaker 1: So there are only two par fives here. We've got

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Speaker 1: twelve par fours, and only two of the par fours

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Speaker 1: measure more than four to sixty. So I feel like

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Speaker 1: there are gonna be a lot of wedges into these greens,

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Speaker 1: and I just can't take Rory when we know that's

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Speaker 1: sort of the Achilles Heel in his game, you know,

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Speaker 1: those wedge appro shots.

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Speaker 2: So it's been out on him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, is this the line.

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Speaker 2: A little bit better?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's see, since the start of April, Tommy Fleetwood

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Speaker 1: has two top ten finishes in five events, plus another

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Speaker 1: top fifteen. But he does rank one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: fifty in strokes gained approach BO, So I can see

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Speaker 1: why you might not want to be in on him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and betting on outright on a guy who's never won, true, true.

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Speaker 1: And I know that's also going to be or hang

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Speaker 1: up with Alex Norin, who has eight straight top twenty

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Speaker 1: five's bow hasn't finished outside the top twenty five since

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Speaker 1: the Phoenix Open way back on Super Bowl weekend. But

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Speaker 1: he only has two top tens during that stretch, a

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Speaker 1: third at the Houston Open in a ninth at the

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Speaker 1: Cognizant Classic. So yeah, he's He's not a guy who

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Speaker 1: really has excelled at sealing the deal. What about Shane

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Speaker 1: Lowry bo sixth at the PGA a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: second to Rory at the Hamilton Golf and Country Club

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Speaker 1: back in twenty nineteen, albeit a very distant second.

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Speaker 3: Shane Lowry is interesting for me because I really like him,

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Speaker 3: but he's in the kind of same mold as as

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Speaker 3: Corey Connor's where his putting has been the downfall. He's

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Speaker 3: actually even worse than Corey Connors in this field putting

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Speaker 3: on the Poana Bent blend that we have here. I

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Speaker 3: am intrigued by the fact that we can get good

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Speaker 3: numbers on Lowry because it's like, oh, yeah, Lowry has

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Speaker 3: been kind of on this year. He looks good this year,

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Speaker 3: But I'm looking at him next to other guys that

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Speaker 3: maybe have fit this golf course better, and I'm just

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Speaker 3: who is the guy you said right before? Lowry?

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry it wasn't Norn, Was it Nouren?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I have to I have to address Norn. I've

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Speaker 3: been trying to figure out how Norn is always in

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Speaker 3: the top five of my model no matter what I run.

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Speaker 3: But I found out why he's always at the top

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Speaker 3: of my model and he's never in the top in

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Speaker 3: other models like that of people I respect to analyze

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Speaker 3: golf the same as I do, and Norn always burns

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Speaker 3: me because he never finishes higher than what eighteenth? It

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Speaker 3: seems like he's he's the guy that pops right to

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Speaker 3: the top end fools you with his stat, darling self.

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Speaker 3: The stat that separates Alex Noran and puts him on

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Speaker 3: the back burner is opportunities gained. And in this field,

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Speaker 3: which isn't very strong, Alex Norn is one hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighteenth in opportunities gained and it's a pretty important Stat's

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Speaker 3: that's it kind of separates O. If you made the fairway,

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Speaker 3: did it put you in position to make a birdie?

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Speaker 3: If you stuck it close on a hole, did it

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Speaker 3: actually turn into a birdie? Opportunities gained? Alex Norn is

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Speaker 3: a huge weak spot there. That's why he doesn't win anything.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't place highly in these events despite having good

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Speaker 3: exterior stats. So Alex Norn is out and now he's

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Speaker 3: probably gonna win.

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Speaker 1: Let me ask you about one more guy from this group,

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Speaker 1: since it seems like I'm more concerned about putting this

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Speaker 1: week and you're more concerned about ball striking.

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Speaker 2: So I'm surprised you didn't mention.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rye, who he's top ten in both driving accuracy

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Speaker 1: and strokes gained approach, and he's playing fairly well lately.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's.

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Speaker 1: Not not contending for wins, but he's, you know, been

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Speaker 1: sniffing around the top of leader boards lately.

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Speaker 2: I just he's not a good potter though.

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Speaker 3: No, he's a terrible putter. And when I drilled it down,

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Speaker 3: he really fell off in the approach metrics. When I

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Speaker 3: filtered for shorter golf courses, his mid to long iron

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Speaker 3: approaches are pretty strong. His short iron and wedge approaches

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Speaker 3: are terrible's He's outside of the top one hundred and

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Speaker 3: many many stats, including bogie avoidance on short courses, birdie's

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Speaker 3: gained on short courses, and he's dead last or almost

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Speaker 3: dead last, one hundred and forty sixth in this field.

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Speaker 3: In fair and Strokes gained on approach on short courses.

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Speaker 3: That's pretty bad. He's one hundred and forty ninth. And

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Speaker 3: another very important exterior stat here, which is Strokes gained

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Speaker 3: on par threes nearly dead last on par threes when

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Speaker 3: you got some pretty tough ones on this golf course.

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Speaker 3: It really really in my craw there because forty fifth

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Speaker 3: on the short approach. Yeah, he fell off my board

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Speaker 3: in a big hurry when I drilled down for shorter

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Speaker 3: golf courses like this one, which is barely over seven

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Speaker 3: thousand yards.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it sounds like I need to take Aaron Rye

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Speaker 1: off my betting card, and yeahry.

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Speaker 3: There's there's better people here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And what you were saying about the par threes fall,

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Speaker 1: I think four or three of the four are two

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00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 1: hundred yards or longer. I think one is like two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty, and then the fourth, the short one,

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00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 1: is one eighty. So yeah, it's a tough collection of

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00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 1: of par thre's. I think some of them are too

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Speaker 1: elevated green, so that's gonna be challenging and maybe Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rye is not the best guy to take on him.

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Speaker 3: Is Aaron Riott? Forty to one it's I think it's

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Speaker 3: way too short for a guy of his caliber. I'd

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Speaker 3: rather have Adam Scott. I'd rather have Tom Kim around

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Speaker 3: the same night, or even if they're a little shorter.

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Speaker 3: Tom Kim has been really warming up lately. Adam Scott's

347
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Speaker 3: always always an assassin. He's always the type of guy

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Speaker 3: who's gonna be in the mix, especially when the field

349
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Speaker 3: isn't quite as strong. Fifteen years ago, he could pretty

350
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Speaker 3: much compete anywhere. In this stage of his career, he

351
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Speaker 3: more likely to compete on these types of events where

352
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Speaker 3: the field is maybe not as strong. The next three

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Speaker 3: guys on my card are all long shots, So.

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Speaker 1: All right, yeah, let's at least talk through some of

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Speaker 1: the mid range options. We have Eric Van Royan at

356
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 1: plus five thousand, Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Adam Hadwin at

357
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Speaker 1: plus fifty five hundred, Kevin You and defending Canadian Open

358
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 1: chant Nick Taylor at plus six thousand, Daniel Berger's plus

359
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,920
Speaker 1: sixty five hundred, Matt Wallace, Doug Gim, Ben Griffin and

360
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:41,679
Speaker 1: Nikolai Hoyguard are all plus seven thousand. Mark Coverard, Ryan Fox,

361
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Speaker 1: Bo Hostler and Robert McIntyre plus seventy five hundred and

362
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 1: at plus eight thousand, Torborne, Olison, Davis Riley, Eric Cole

363
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Speaker 1: and real Heisatsuni. How do we feel about some of

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Speaker 1: these mid range plays.

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Speaker 3: I'm not against going back to the well and Nick

366
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Speaker 3: Taylor because he actually it's not better on this golf

367
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Speaker 3: course than he did on last year's course really where

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Speaker 3: he won in dramatic fashion. Of course, I really like

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Speaker 3: his setup with this golf course because he's an accuracy

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Speaker 3: based player. Nick Taylor is one of the best, like

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00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 3: straight line accuracy off the tee and pretty decent approach

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Speaker 3: player in his own right. He also has a pretty

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Speaker 3: solid short game to boot. I don't think Nick Taylor

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Speaker 3: is going to beat himself and at sixty five to one,

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Speaker 3: we can do a lot worse, a lot worse in

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Speaker 3: this group. A lot of these guys are falling off

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Speaker 3: my board in that range just because they haven't done

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Speaker 3: anything lately, or they're very obviously stat darlings, where it's

379
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Speaker 3: just superficial. You're not getting the results out of the stats.

380
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Speaker 3: A lot of the long shots popped up to the top,

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Speaker 3: and of course, of course some of the favorites were

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Speaker 3: they're at the top but that's the one that stands

383
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Speaker 3: out to me as the defending champ himself.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for anyone hoping for lightning to strike twice in

385
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Speaker 1: rapid succession with another Canadian winning the Canadian Open, you know,

386
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 1: after a sixty nine year drought, why not have two

387
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Speaker 1: in a row. Taylor Pendrith is Canadian. He won the

388
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Speaker 1: Byron Nelson earlier this month. I just don't know if

389
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Speaker 1: he's good enough Tea Green Baul like, that's.

390
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Speaker 3: Kind of now its game And a lot of these

391
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Speaker 3: guys have burned me before, but this is the Canadian Open,

392
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Speaker 3: and I do think there is merit in playing some

393
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 3: of these Canadian golfers. A lot of them are playing

394
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 3: really well right now. The next one on my list

395
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 3: is just I think it's on the cusp of mid

396
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Speaker 3: range to long shot, and that's Adam Spenson, who completely

397
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,439
Speaker 3: obliterated me a month or two ago, where I was like,

398
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Speaker 3: oh yeah, Adam spencent Adams Spenson and he missed the

399
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 3: cut and pretty much got dead last. So Adam Spenson,

400
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 3: usually dead to me, is very very highly rated in

401
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 3: my model this week, and he's been playing better lately.

402
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,639
Speaker 1: Now I'm sort of interested in a different Canadian Adam

403
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 1: Bowl mister Adam Hadwin. He finished sixth here back in

404
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, so he has shown some aptitude at Hamilton

405
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: statistic Adam Hedwin is not putted all that well this year.

406
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 1: I think he might be outside the top one hundred,

407
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 1: but he is usually one of the best putters in

408
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 1: the world, and I think he's good enough Teita Green

409
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 1: to contend, doing fairly well in driving accuracy, and I

410
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: think Strokes gained approach this year, so he interests me.

411
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 2: Bo.

412
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Speaker 1: I'm interested in Nikolai Hoygard just because I think he's

413
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,199
Speaker 1: too good to be seventy to one, and I know

414
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 1: his only decent finish over the last three months is

415
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 1: a sixteenth at the Masters. He's missed the cut in

416
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 1: five of his last eight. But I want to bet

417
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: on the talent. Like we saw him playing, he was

418
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 1: in a much better place early in the season. I

419
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: just wonder if this could be a get well track

420
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Speaker 1: for him, and it's seventy to one, I'm willing to

421
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Speaker 1: take a flyer on it.

422
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Speaker 3: Yeah, music's to my ears. It would be a nice

423
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 3: change of pace for how badly he's been playing the

424
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Speaker 3: last few weeks. Nikolai Hoyguard extremely talented, ice ice cold

425
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 3: these days. This is it. I'm not gonna knock your

426
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 3: pick because I've been on Hoyguard for two years now

427
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 3: waiting for something to pop other than on the DP

428
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 3: World War. Let's let's go Nikolai or Rasmus. Either either

429
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 3: one of the Hoyguard brothers is fine for me. I'm

430
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 3: rooting for them both. I just I can't do it

431
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 3: this week, but I won't. I won't knock you for trying.

432
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 2: I hear you.

433
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: And then two guys, I'll just make a quick mention

434
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 1: of Robert McIntyre has three top fifteens in his last

435
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 1: or is it two top fifteens in his last three events?

436
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 2: Sorry, And if.

437
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 1: I'm right about putting being the key here, Paul, we

438
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 1: should probably at least show a little interest in Eric

439
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 1: Cole at eighty to one.

440
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's another ice ice cold guy that rates up.

441
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: That's the only issue he has not done much of

442
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 1: late number two model really number two.

443
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, airic cold number two in my model, and it

444
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 3: scares me because he's probably gonna make the DFS pool.

445
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 3: But even at ninety to one, I got to see

446
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: him play better he's been playing so badly last two much.

447
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: How about long shots, anyone longer than eighty to one

448
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: who might be worth a flyer?

449
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 3: Going back to mister fly swatter, Channler Phillips, he was

450
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: in the pool last week and finished very highly, and

451
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go way down deep for this last one.

452
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 3: Chez Revey came in third in my model. Is a

453
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 3: short course specialist. He doesn't make over half of his

454
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: cuts any year, but the ones he makes are on

455
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 3: short courses where out of nowhere, chez Revey comes out

456
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 3: there and shoots the first round sixty four, and you're like, huh,

457
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 3: there's chez Revy. The course must be under seventy two

458
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 3: hundred yards because he never competes in any of the

459
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 3: longer courses or even the average courses. But this is

460
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 3: a shorter one. Chez Reby very very accurate. He has

461
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: an outstanding short game, outstanding putter. He just can't muscle

462
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 3: up and he if he misses the fairways, he's done.

463
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: Like this guy doesn't get around out of any trouble.

464
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 3: So if I'm just gonna throw it out there, three

465
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one right now, Chas Reeby is

466
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 3: probably gonna show up.

467
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: I'll mention sam Ryder at one hundred and thirty to one.

468
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: It has not been in great form admittedly, which is

469
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: why he has such long odds, but he is in

470
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: the top twenty five in strokes gained approach and the

471
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 1: top fifty in strokes gained putting, so he might have

472
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: the right combination for this course. At one hundred and

473
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 1: thirty to one, there's some appeal there for me.

474
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: Yeah.

475
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: Man, that's that's a good number because Sam Ryder is

476
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: a brilliant player. He's just you know, a lot of

477
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 3: these guys are gonna use this week, like you said

478
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 3: with Hoyguard, just to get right, get their game back

479
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 3: in shap this is a perfect place to do it. No,

480
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 3: it's not an easy golf course, but no, it's also

481
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 3: not as tough as what they've been dealing with the

482
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 3: last few weeks. Some of these guys have just been

483
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: waiting for this tournament to come up so they can

484
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 3: get their get their form back. Yeah.

485
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 1: And by the way, I think I glossed over weather earlier.

486
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 1: I don't think they're They're expecting a dry week and

487
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 1: just moderate winds, so whether should be a big factor.

488
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 3: So we're gonna get torrential downpours and problem gusty wins

489
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 3: all four days. Okay, gotcha. That's what it's been like

490
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 3: this whole season.

491
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 2: That's true. What do you have on your betting card

492
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 2: as of now ball?

493
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 3: I have Corey Connors and Sam Burns. I have I

494
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 3: still haven't decided between Adam Scott and Tom Kim. They

495
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,199
Speaker 3: both rate out similarly. They're both playing relatively well for

496
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 3: their betting number around thirty five to one. I have

497
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 3: Svenson at seventy five to one, Chandler Phillips at one

498
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty and Chez Revy at three hundred and

499
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 3: fifty with top twenty kickers.

500
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,679
Speaker 1: On the last two, I've got saeath Agala at plus

501
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred, Shane Lowry at plus twenty two hundred, Adam

502
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 1: had went outright at plus five thousand, and top ten

503
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: at plus five hundred. I'm taking that flyer on Nikolai

504
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 1: Hoyguard at seventy five to one, and also one on

505
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 1: Sam Ryder at one hundred and thirty to one. Now,

506
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: before we get to our one and done picks, if

507
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: you are playing in a one and done golf pool,

508
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: or if you're playing in any sort of tears based

509
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,000
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510
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,159
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511
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512
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513
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514
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516
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518
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521
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522
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,359
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523
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: Last week at the Charles schwab Bo took Tom Kim.

524
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: He tied for twenty fourth and earned seventy eight hundred

525
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: and sixty six dollars. I took Jordan Speed. He tied

526
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 1: for thirty seventh. And earned thirty eight, six hundred and

527
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: seventy five dollars. Bow gains ground, but I'm still ahead

528
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: by about a million dollars. I'm up first this week.

529
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: I've already burned a lot of my Canadians bow. I've

530
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: used Corey Connors, Adam Hadwin, Davis Riley. So let's go

531
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: with the Englishman at the Canadian Open. I'm gonna take

532
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood. You know, I know it's it's not the

533
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: same course where he fared so well last week and

534
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: got into the playoff, But I don't know. I think

535
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: he's got the decent enough overall game to contend here.

536
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 2: Who are you taking?

537
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: So first off? You might have already looked up what

538
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 3: is the prize for runner up at the Harvey C

539
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 3: Canadian Open. That's probably what you're going to top out

540
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 3: at with that pick. And as much as I would

541
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 3: love to pick Rory here, since I haven't burned that

542
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: one yet, if Rory doesn't win here, then I'm losing

543
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 3: a big chip in a tournament without an elevated purse.

544
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 3: I don't want to burn that chip yet. So I'm

545
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 3: gonna go with Corey Connors because I don't see any

546
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 3: other way, I'm gonna play him.

547
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: That makes perfect vents and we had to get at

548
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: least one Canadian into the one and in the Canadian Open.

549
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 2: And that's going to do it.

550
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: For this week's show, I want to thank our sponsor

551
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,480
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552
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,879
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553
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554
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555
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: join Bow and I again next week when we'll be

556
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: previewing the Memorial, always one of the best non majors

557
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: of the year.

558
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone.

559
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,679
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

560
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

561
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

562
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:38,000
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563
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,920
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564
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:42,880
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565
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,200
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566
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:58,680
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