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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and eighty one percent of young Americans

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Speaker 1: say the economy is bad. We have such a great

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Speaker 1: show for you today, Platypus Economics. Justin Wolfers comes on

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Speaker 1: to update us on Trump's economy. Then we'll talk to

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Speaker 1: the economists Steve Mazie about our Supreme Court's terrible, terrible instincts.

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Speaker 2: But first the news, Smiley, we have a deluge of

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Speaker 2: votes that came through our congressional body yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Let's shock you they're not good.

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Speaker 1: Well, last night the Senate worked late. They were up

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Speaker 1: late passing votes and also not They had a vote

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Speaker 1: rama and there was a lot of stuff that went down.

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Speaker 1: Someone through, some did not. But they did pass the

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Speaker 1: Ice and Border patrol funding. The irony here is ice

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Speaker 1: in border patrol already so funded. They have so much

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Speaker 1: money in the billions. But Murkowski voted no, Bennett did

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Speaker 1: not vote, and otherwise on party lines fifty two forty seven.

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Speaker 1: They were a series of Democratic amendments that were put

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Speaker 1: on there to make Republicans have to vote against what

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Speaker 1: might help them win in twenty twenty eight, and this

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Speaker 1: I think is important. Bill Cassidy had to defeat a

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Speaker 1: Democratic proposal targeting the Anti Weaponization Fund. Now, the Anti

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Speaker 1: Weaponization Fund is Donald Trump's slush fund for giving money

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Speaker 1: to his people. Are they a private militia? Well, the

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Speaker 1: anxiety is that they would become that with the seventeen

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Speaker 1: seventy six billion dollars that they would get for doing

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Speaker 1: things Trump wanted and so and I think this is

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Speaker 1: this smart. You know, Chuck Schumer has had a few

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Speaker 1: wins recently, and we should give them to him, Jesse

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Speaker 1: or you Okay, And one of them is that he's

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Speaker 1: trying to outlaw this. And I think that he's right to. Like,

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Speaker 1: if we've seen one thing about this admin is so

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Speaker 1: you cannot take them at their word.

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Speaker 3: That is correct.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I'll keep staying silent on Chuck Schumer. So

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Speaker 2: next we have in this delusion votes, Senator Cassidy is

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Speaker 2: trying very hard to kill Trump's slush fund.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, there is a thing called the Yolo Caucus.

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Speaker 1: It is Cassidy Cornyan from Texas tillis. Those are three

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Speaker 1: Republicans who would be running for reelection if Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: hadn't gotten mad at them, that's the truth. And he

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Speaker 1: primary two of them, and he created a world where

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Speaker 1: the third just could not run in North Carol. So

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Speaker 1: this is I think important because it is a fifty

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Speaker 1: three forty seven Senate and you have three senators who

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Speaker 1: are no longer on Team Trump, which means you could

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Speaker 1: have a fifty to fifty Senate. And then you have

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Speaker 1: people like Mitch McConnell, who has voted against Trump any

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Speaker 1: number of times, Lisa Murkowski, who can do whatever the

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Speaker 1: fuck she wants, and of course Susan Collins, who would

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Speaker 1: be would be an normal election fighting for her political life,

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Speaker 1: but because she's caught a break, she's still you know,

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Speaker 1: she has an election coming up.

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Speaker 2: She caught a terrible, terrible pull today. That's still that

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Speaker 2: was up to date just two days ago, and it's

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Speaker 2: not looking good for her. So the Trump administration had

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Speaker 2: a second amendment Tsunami.

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Speaker 1: This administration hates regulation. Why do they hate because they

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Speaker 1: just don't want the government to exist. I mean it's

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Speaker 1: a larger distault of not wanting the government to exist

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Speaker 1: at all. So they are undertaking a broadest firearm deregulation

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Speaker 1: in years. Why would you do this. Why already America

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Speaker 1: is awash with guns. Mexico gets their guns from US,

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Speaker 1: Canada gets their guns from US. The rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: We're like arms dealers to the world, and the ADMIN

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Speaker 1: would like to make it easier to get guns here.

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Speaker 1: So basically they're going to modernize regulations, which means just

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Speaker 1: end them. And again, like this is so so so shortsighted,

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Speaker 1: and you know, I mean, I don't understand why they

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Speaker 1: think we need this, but I guess that it's going

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Speaker 1: to be more guns. It's going to be more gun violence,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be more of this just complete disaster scenario.

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Speaker 1: And it's like, you know, when they're legislating, they're doing

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Speaker 1: either trying to end regulation or trying to take stuff

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Speaker 1: away from fore mothers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they really like that. So the other big vote

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Speaker 2: is the House GOP, with the help of four Dems,

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Speaker 2: voted to take food aid from millions of women and kids.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So this is like one of the things that

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Speaker 1: this is the legacy of Elon Musk, who's about to

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Speaker 1: become a trillionaire. My man does not like giving money

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Speaker 1: to poor women. Two thirteen to ten four Democrats. You

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Speaker 1: should by the way primary the hell out of those

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Speaker 1: Democrats Vince Gonzalez from Texas, Adam Gray from California, Marie

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Speaker 1: Gustin klamp Perez, and Don Davis from North Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Especially Marie. We can primary to hell.

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Speaker 1: It would cut fruit and vegetable benefits for young kids

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Speaker 1: and pregnant and part of women under snap Why because

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Speaker 1: they don't give a fuck. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 1: what to tell you. Nearly five point four million doddlers,

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Speaker 1: preschoolers and pregnant postpartum women and children. They received twenty

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Speaker 1: six dollars for fruits and vegetables, and postpartum women receive

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Speaker 1: forty eight. Breastfeeding participants receive fifty two dollars. They want

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Speaker 1: to cut it elon musk trillion dollars. It's just a

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Speaker 1: completely insane and needlessly painful and evil way to do business.

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Speaker 1: And it was all started by the richest man in

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Speaker 1: the world, a guy who wanted to save taxes. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we have, like we're living in a country where there

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Speaker 1: are people with unspendable wealth, wealth that is so unspendable

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Speaker 1: that it is just there's no world in which it

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Speaker 1: can be spent. And these people are taking food away

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Speaker 1: from pregnant and children. Justin Wolfers is the founder of

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Speaker 1: Platypus Economics. Welcome, Welcome, Justin Wolfers.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Mollie, job support. Let's go big one, mate. It's

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Speaker 3: not often I say that to you. It's not often

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Speaker 3: I say one data point should change your mind, but

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Speaker 3: this one should. Employment growth really strong. We created one

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Speaker 3: hundred and seventy two thousand jobs. Comes hot on the

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Speaker 3: heels of two strong jobs reports, both of which were

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Speaker 3: revised up. So the story of mid to late twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five had been an economy in the doldrums, Billy

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Speaker 3: doing anything. Happy Kevin used to have to go out

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Speaker 3: to face the cameras and you had to make facts up.

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Speaker 1: What this that let the record just those for those

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Speaker 1: who have not been just completely obsessed with Justin Wolfer's

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Speaker 1: and his many millieus. Happy Kevin is Kevin Hassett, who

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Speaker 1: is Minister for Propaganda, very smiling but also a big liar. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's fair.

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Speaker 3: Just gave up his credibility. He just said, here you go,

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Speaker 3: do you want it? I don't want it anymore. I'm

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Speaker 3: not using this integrity. Apparently it's not required inside this house.

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Speaker 1: Happy Kevin, big liar, handsome Vin soon to ruin himself

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Speaker 1: for a Trump.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Kevin is running the fair. We are in a

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Speaker 3: feast of Kevin's. Yeah, I see your favorite of Kevin flavor,

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Speaker 3: not favor, I mean you could pick your favorite Kevin too.

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Speaker 3: So look happy. Kevin this time is going to be

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Speaker 3: smiling and not lying, which has been a long time

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Speaker 3: between drinks for him. I want to come on, I

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Speaker 3: want to tell your audience. I am so excited. I

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Speaker 3: love good news about the economy. I think when my

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Speaker 3: liberal friends sit in the corner and silk and wish

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Speaker 3: it was worse so it would bring home the worst

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Speaker 3: of our feelings about the administration. We're forgetting what we

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Speaker 3: care about.

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Speaker 1: Who is just the American people.

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Speaker 3: That's right, And the American people are getting jobs and

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Speaker 3: have been for the last couple of months. The important

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Speaker 3: thing coming out of today's report, there's all sorts of

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Speaker 3: ways you can cut it. The really important thing is

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Speaker 3: it's not a good time to use the word recession.

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Speaker 3: Take that out of your vocabulary. She just great, It's fantastic.

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Speaker 3: I'm so happy about it. I love your joy about

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Speaker 3: this too, Molly. And let's just you know, maybe have

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Speaker 3: a drink, to the American worker, to the families that

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Speaker 3: are finding a little easy to get by, to those.

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Speaker 1: Wait, but let's can we just talk about that for

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Speaker 1: a second, because even though the job growth numbers are good,

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Speaker 1: I was told that it's like a very tough time

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Speaker 1: for young people to get jobs. So explain how that works.

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Speaker 3: Great. So, first of all, I just want to clarify

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Speaker 3: the rhetorical move you just made, not because you're dishonest,

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Speaker 3: but I want our audience to recognize it. When the

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Speaker 3: government publishes a big top line number like how many

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Speaker 3: jobs were created, that's the story. Now, what we can

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Speaker 3: always do is we can dig inside that and say

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Speaker 3: some did really well and maybe some did worse. And

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Speaker 3: so the moment you pivot to a subgrind group usually

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Speaker 3: right now to be liberals saying who's got it going tough,

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Speaker 3: and it'll be Republicans saying who's got to going great?

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: When people do that, they're often only telling half the story.

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Speaker 1: Well, the reason why I bring this up is because

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Speaker 1: I have an opinion column and the Times about grads,

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Speaker 1: and I gave this commencement speech and the grads are

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Speaker 1: really having trouble getting jobs. And so I'm very much

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Speaker 1: in that data, not because I'm a porous and which I.

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Speaker 3: Also are, no, but also what I love about that

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Speaker 3: was just the humble brag. I was writing opinion columns

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Speaker 3: in The Times about economics, and I was a graduation speaker.

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Speaker 3: Where were you, the graduation speaker.

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Speaker 1: Molly Bennington College, and I did not get an honorary degree.

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Speaker 1: No way, Yeah, everyt that MFA.

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Speaker 3: They didn't give you a PhD to go with it.

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Speaker 3: You need to it a little harder. That's the price, mate,

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Speaker 3: I got. The audience may not know this, but once

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Speaker 3: you achieve Molly's level of celebrity.

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Speaker 1: Oh would you shut up?

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Speaker 3: Universities? You want a celebrity speaker. And so what they

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Speaker 3: do is it's a deal. They give you an honorary degree,

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Speaker 3: usually an honorary doctorate of Letters, which Molly deserves, and

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Speaker 3: in return she churns up and is charming and talks

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Speaker 3: about recent employment statistics affecting college grads.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to the actual scene.

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Speaker 3: So you're right to say so. Molly, who writes about

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Speaker 3: this issue for The New York Times and gives graduation addresses,

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Speaker 3: pointed out young people are finding it hard right now

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Speaker 3: they are, And so the question is how can we

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Speaker 3: hold two facts in our head at the same time.

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Speaker 1: And how did they relate to each other? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I love this, So how is it? The overall late

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Speaker 3: market's doing pretty well? College grads are finding it hard, Okay,

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Speaker 3: for a given level of unemployment. We could either be

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Speaker 3: there by hiring a lot and firing a lot. And

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Speaker 3: that's been the history of the American late market. Compared

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Speaker 3: to any other country in the world. Lots of Americans

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Speaker 3: lose their jobs every month, but lots of gain jobs.

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Speaker 3: And it's just like when you got the bath and

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Speaker 3: you've got the force it on and you've got the

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Speaker 3: plug a little bit open. There's water coming in, there's

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Speaker 3: water going out. In the level stable, there could be

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of water coming in and a lot

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Speaker 3: of water going out, or it could be a little

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Speaker 3: bit of water coming in, a little bit of water

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Speaker 3: going out. So we used to be a high fire,

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Speaker 3: high higher labor, and for some reason over the last

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Speaker 3: few years, unemployment is roughly stable, but it's with very

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Speaker 3: little firing, which is fantastic. If you've got a job,

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Speaker 3: you feel secure, right, But it's bad job, right If

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Speaker 3: you're looking for a job. This is terrible. So it's basically,

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Speaker 3: think if the labor market is a game of musical chairs,

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Speaker 3: and it used to be the music was going quick.

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Speaker 3: Now the music's going slow right now. That means that

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Speaker 3: durations if you lose your job, you're actually finding it tough.

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Speaker 3: Everyone who's losing their jobs fording out and they're searching

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Speaker 3: for work for longer than they normally would, and that

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Speaker 3: really worries me. And the other group who really needs

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Speaker 3: lots of job openings is college grads. And college grads,

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Speaker 3: no one's hiring. Therefore, no one's hiring college grades. And

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Speaker 3: then there's a little asterisk next to that, which is

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Speaker 3: someone always says, oh, isn't this just AI?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going you you just got You just went

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Speaker 1: to where I was going.

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Speaker 3: So you are the asterix, Molly.

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Speaker 1: I am the asterix.

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Speaker 4: No.

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Speaker 1: But the question is is AI freezing hiring or are

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Speaker 1: they just using it as an excuse?

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Speaker 3: Right So, at this moment in time, there are small

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Speaker 3: sub sectors of the economy where it almost certainly is. AI.

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Speaker 3: Coding is a really big one. No one wants to

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Speaker 3: hire a young coder anymore because we now have a

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Speaker 3: agentic AI that does the coding for us. So if

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Speaker 3: you're coming out with the computer science degree, just I'm.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, you're screwed.

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Speaker 3: And increasingly, by the way, young lawyers, so we're starting

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Speaker 3: to see just hints of it, but across the labor

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Speaker 3: market as a whole, most young people are not coders.

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Speaker 3: It's not AI. Yes you you'll be soon.

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Speaker 1: And the young lawyers are because of the contracts, right,

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Speaker 1: So it.

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Speaker 3: Comes from thinking about what the lawyers do, and young

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Speaker 3: lawyers like do discovery, which is they read boxes of documents,

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Speaker 3: they do boring stuff. And it turns out the sort

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Speaker 3: of AI is advanced enough, the sort of stuff you

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Speaker 3: could you could trust a twenty four year old lawyer

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Speaker 3: to do. AI does it enormously cheaper and often more accurately.

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Speaker 3: So in a law firm, there used to be three

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Speaker 3: sets of skills you needed. You needed to do actual work,

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Speaker 3: you needed to have legal judgments, and you need to

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Speaker 3: be really good at going for lunch to get clients right.

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Speaker 3: The work is now being done by AI. Judgment is

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Speaker 3: a thing you get as a middle aged lawyer, and

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Speaker 3: so we definitely need mid career lawyers and going for

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Speaker 3: lunches what partners do. So there's a lot of demand

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Speaker 3: at those levels.

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Speaker 1: So I'm reading in a question here from tired but

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Speaker 1: actually very smart Jesse gold Why are people going into gold?

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Speaker 1: And explain that to Ozz.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to start with my bias. Then I'm going

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Speaker 3: to give a straight answer, and then I'll give a

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Speaker 3: not straight answer. My bias is gold is dumb. Okay,

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Speaker 3: here's the straight answer, pretending I didn't think gold was dumb.

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Speaker 3: People believe that gold is a hedge against global uncertainty

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Speaker 3: and in particular crazy prices, but also geopolitical risk. If

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Speaker 3: I knew that my country was about to be bombed,

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Speaker 3: I would probably want a suitcase of gold so I

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Speaker 3: could walk out of the country with my wealth intact.

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Speaker 3: Right if I thought prices were going to go crazy.

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Speaker 3: For some reason, people think that the price of gold

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Speaker 3: doesn't go crazy, and so they prefer having their wealth

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Speaker 3: in gold. So just think about rising demand for gold

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Speaker 3: is a demand for safety, either against inflation or geopolitical risk.

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Speaker 3: So that's the textbook cancer. Let me give you a

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Speaker 3: completely different answer. What is gold? Gold is a yellow metal.

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Speaker 3: It's not a very interesting yellow metal. It doesn't really

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Speaker 3: do anything. So then why would I think if the

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Speaker 3: world were about to melt down? Why would I want

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Speaker 3: a yellow metal rather than the gray metal? Why I

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Speaker 3: want to mental rather than food? And the answer is

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Speaker 3: it's just a social convention. Gold is bitcoin without the

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Speaker 3: energy consumption, right, And if you think that, you know

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Speaker 3: what keeps the price of bitcoin high because everyone else

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Speaker 3: thinks that. Everyone else thinks that bitcoin's useful. Rights, And

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Speaker 3: that's the story with gold. Now some people say it isn't.

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Speaker 1: What if you wanted to move to Argentina, like.

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Speaker 3: Useful for that?

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Speaker 1: Okay?

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Speaker 3: So these are ways of sort of packing a suitcase

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Speaker 3: and heading away from all going off the grid.

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Speaker 1: As one does. So there's a lot of money in

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Speaker 1: AI right now in the economy, and the feeling is

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Speaker 1: that AI is going to make everything easier and cheaper

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Speaker 1: and that it will take all the jobs away from

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Speaker 1: the youngs eventually. Do you buy that?

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Speaker 3: Okay? So there's actually lots of different questions embedded there.

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Speaker 3: So let me take a few different slices of it.

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Speaker 3: So one, there's two AI stories. One story is what's

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Speaker 3: supporting the economy right now, which is building a lot

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Speaker 3: of data centers. Right it's actually a modestly uninteresting story,

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Speaker 3: which is people build a lot of stuff. They need

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Speaker 3: a lot of bricks the end, right, And once you've

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Speaker 3: built your data center, there's not a lot of people

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Speaker 3: in it. It's just a big room full of a

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Speaker 3: lot of computers and air conditioning.

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Speaker 1: Sousing, a lot of electricity and water.

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Speaker 3: Yep. And so that's an important story for what's supporting

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Speaker 3: the economy in twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: The more interesting thing is we are on the cusp

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Speaker 3: of a technological revolution, and people differ widely about how

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Speaker 3: revolutionary they think this technology is. And I've learned that

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Speaker 3: every time I give my view, people confidently call me

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Speaker 3: an imbecile and various other words. So I'm going to

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Speaker 3: not confidently give my view.

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Speaker 1: Yes, but that and I don't need your review. But

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Speaker 1: what I do need is isn't the gamble that if

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Speaker 1: this technology is not as transformative as many any people

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Speaker 1: say it will be that the economy will crash?

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Speaker 3: Yes? Yes, well that's what I want.

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Speaker 1: It's like, it feels like there's a big gamble on

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Speaker 1: AI being transformative.

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Speaker 3: Right, A bunch of people lose a lot of money. Yeah, Now,

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Speaker 3: there's been investments made in genuine capitalised in data centers.

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Speaker 3: But those data centers sort of like buying a bunch

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Speaker 3: of bulldozers, but they're the wrong size bulldozers to do

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Speaker 3: the work you want to do. Right, So, if the

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Speaker 3: teams at AI is not important, all of these investments

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Speaker 3: are just going to be big whales just sitting there

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Speaker 3: doing nothing. So some sector of some large number of people,

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Speaker 3: including in fact many of our audience, because of your

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Speaker 3: four oh one k's almost a lot of market gains

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Speaker 3: since over the Trump term have come out of AI.

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Speaker 3: So if you're enjoying feeling a little wealthier now, if

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Speaker 3: AI turns out not to be the next big thing,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna that welth's going to one do itself.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, so that seems like a big scary thing

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Speaker 1: in the economy right now.

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Speaker 3: Right, But let's not only talk about the glass being

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Speaker 3: half empty. Right, So if we only talk about what

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Speaker 3: might go wrong, and we never talk about what might

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Speaker 3: go right, we leave people with the wrong impression what

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Speaker 3: might go right. AI might be magnificent.

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Speaker 1: But then we'll take away all the jobs.

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Speaker 3: No, okay, here, Molly, imagine that you're middle class person

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Speaker 3: who goes to work and types meaningless memos all day. Right,

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Speaker 3: would you rather live in a world in which you're

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Speaker 3: required to do that to produce our level of output,

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Speaker 3: or in which the machine can do it for you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, But if the machine can do it for you,

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Speaker 1: then why do you exist?

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Speaker 3: Why do we exist? Well?

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Speaker 1: Why, but you're not going to have the job if

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Speaker 1: somebody's going to take somebody's going to take.

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Speaker 3: Your So let me explain how the standard economic story works.

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Speaker 3: And you're welcome to not buy it because it's more

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Speaker 3: complex than this. But basically, anytime we have something that

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Speaker 3: makes us more productive, whether it's the stump jump plow,

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Speaker 3: the tractor, automation, robotics, AI, electricity, the steam engine, what

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Speaker 3: that means is a bunch of tasks that were previously

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Speaker 3: being done by humans no longer need to be done

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Speaker 3: by humans. But the pie just got bigger. We make

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Speaker 3: more stuff with less effort for the average American across

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Speaker 3: the whole economy. If you can make more stuff with

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Speaker 3: less effort, that's fantastic. There is a concern, then, oh well,

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Speaker 3: then no one, there will be no work in the future.

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Speaker 3: In fact, you can go back this beautiful less I

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Speaker 3: recommend to the audience, which is John Maynard Kaine's wrote

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Speaker 3: Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, So just a short essay.

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Speaker 3: We was looking several decades ahead and said, given the

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Speaker 3: rates of economic growth or experiencing the problems from my grandchildren,

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Speaker 3: which is basically you and I we are Kanes's grandchildren,

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Speaker 3: will be that we have everything we want, You won't

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Speaker 3: need to work and how will you fill your day?

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Speaker 3: And that's very much the flavor of what you're describing

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Speaker 3: right now. The thing is, if we free people up

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Speaker 3: from the work of drudgery, think of it as freeing them,

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Speaker 3: there are now two possibilities. They can fell it doing

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Speaker 3: other beautiful things, writing poetry, giving graduation speeches, writing for

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Speaker 3: New York Times, or the other possibility is we all

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Speaker 3: now want more stuff, and so they're going to be

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Speaker 3: productive in the parts of the economy that still need people,

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Speaker 3: which might be healthcare or education or the rest of

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Speaker 3: the service sector that's not going away.

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Speaker 1: So you think it'll be like computers and people figure

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Speaker 1: out other stuff to do.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and so yes, when you free people up from

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Speaker 3: one set of tasks and allow them to do others,

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Speaker 3: they'll generally tend to move to those others. But when

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Speaker 3: I say it like that, it sounds painless and quick

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Speaker 3: and easy, and it's no. People are going to lose

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Speaker 3: their livelihoods, their way of life, the security that they

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Speaker 3: feel right now, and they're scared shitless as a result. Right,

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Speaker 3: And so that transition maybe, I think probably does take

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Speaker 3: us to a better world, but it's going to be

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Speaker 3: a painful path to get there. That's the honest conversation

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Speaker 3: we should be having.

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Speaker 1: Will we be replaced by AI? Will there'll be AI?

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Speaker 1: Molly John Fast.

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Speaker 3: The already is mate. I coded one up and she actually,

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Speaker 3: in my world what my AI Molly does. She reads

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Speaker 3: the newspapers and she only talks about economics and it's so.

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Speaker 1: Fantastic that nobody wants nobody wants that.

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Speaker 3: No, it's really good, but look we don't know. Actually,

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Speaker 3: so you maybe are safe because you're entertaining. You're fabulous.

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Speaker 3: I at risk? What is what is it that? And

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Speaker 3: so this where for the audience, I want you to

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Speaker 3: understand how deeply I empathize with your fears about AI.

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Speaker 3: Because what is the only skill Justin Wolf has has?

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Speaker 3: It's that I read widely. I understand enormous amounts of economics.

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Speaker 3: I've read tons of it and I'm pretty good it

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Speaker 3: can vertingant into plain English. Yeah, guess what else is

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Speaker 3: good at that chat GPT.

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Speaker 1: But you can talk, you do teach Molly.

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Speaker 3: You don't actually need to invite me onto your podcast.

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Speaker 3: You could have interviewed chat GPT this morning. It would

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Speaker 3: have given you answers that were roughly as good as mine,

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Speaker 3: and then you could have just talked straight down the

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Speaker 3: camera without having to pay me the enormous appearance fee

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Speaker 3: year off how much you pay me for this bitcoin?

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Speaker 1: So you're getting you're getting paid in mean coin. I

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Speaker 1: love that Millennia coin, Malayia coin. That'd be great. That's good.

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Speaker 1: It's value really well yeah, yeah, no, I think it's

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Speaker 1: a really good point. Just like looking ahead with the

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Speaker 1: top lines here, the economy is not as bad as

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Speaker 1: a lot of us might have worried it was going

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Speaker 1: to be right now. It's because Donald Trump is a

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Speaker 1: very good president and is doing very smart stuff.

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Speaker 3: There's a survey question that I asked people, what do

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Speaker 3: you think about how a Maria economic policy is. Do

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Speaker 3: you think of it as been good, fair, or poor?

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Speaker 3: In the latest survey, seventy seven per cent of Americans

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Speaker 3: an all time high said that economic policy today is poor.

434
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: Let's goes Donald Trump went to war.

435
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: The highest that number has ever been under any previous

436
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 3: presidents in the high fifties. Wow, he is breaking records

437
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 3: for people's belief in the incompetency incoherence of his economic policy.

438
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: So look, I gave you that statistic so that you're

439
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 3: not asking justin justin what's your view, I'll give you

440
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 3: my view. I think it's been an incompetent, incoherent, poorly staffed,

441
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 3: poorly run economic rollout. And I have reams of evidence

442
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 3: for that. You and I have talked about the chaotic

443
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 3: trade war, the war with no end, the war on

444
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 3: the fair, the war on statistics, the war on truth,

445
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: the war on market forces. So I think it's a terrible,

446
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 3: terrible economic policy. But more to the point, the American

447
00:24:58,680 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 3: people think that it's not just me.

448
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: If the economy is good but gas praises are bad,

449
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 1: how does that work?

450
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: Great? Good point. So what happened this morning was new

451
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 3: jobs numbers came out and I was so excited to

452
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 3: share them with you. And I'm so excited that people

453
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: are finding jobs and this institution of work that gives

454
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 3: people dignity and money and a way to get by

455
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 3: is looking a little rosy this morning. And I may

456
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 3: have spread that excitement a little bit too thick. So

457
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 3: let's situate it in the broader world. We have an

458
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 3: inflation problem right now. The inflation problems largely driven by

459
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: a run. It's definitely bolstered by what was happening with tariffs.

460
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 3: We're stuck in a war over there. It's completely unclear

461
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 3: when inflation falls, what affordability is going to look like,

462
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 3: and so on. Inequality remains an enormous problem. The quality

463
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 3: of our economic policy is terrible. And maybe what we're

464
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 3: learning today is making mistakes in good times isn't too costly.

465
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 3: But if we get hit with a real challenge, which

466
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,440
Speaker 3: we were in twenty twenty with the COVID pandemic, we

467
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 3: got the wrong set of fools in charge. So look,

468
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: I'm not telling you everything's rosy. I do worry. I

469
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 3: spent enough time with my liberal friends that they're seemingly

470
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 3: incapable of copying good news. Wanted to arrive, so I

471
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 3: just wanted to arrive today, Molly and say, hey, guess

472
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: what something good's happening in the world. That's terrific and

473
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 3: let's face that reality.

474
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 1: But the gas prices, like if you're if you're trying

475
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: to survive in this country, the gas prices are the

476
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: biggest pressure.

477
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 3: Gas price is a high, food price is a high.

478
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 3: Inflations continuing to be high, and the worst thing is

479
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 3: inflation's rising and wages aren't keeping up right. So if

480
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: you feel like you're not keeping up right now, that's

481
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 3: because you are representative typical American. Justin Wolfer's great pleasure,

482
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 3: my mate.

483
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: Thank you. Stephen Mazie is a reporter on the Supreme

484
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: Court for The Economist. Welcome, Welcome, Steve.

485
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 4: Thank you so much, Mollie, thanks for having me back.

486
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 4: It's been a while.

487
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: You write about the Supreme Court with The Economist. You

488
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: are really, really smart, and we do all the time.

489
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: So it is Supreme Court season that dread you feel

490
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 1: in your heart of hearts. That means that our hyperpowertisan

491
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: Supreme Court is making decisions that will affect all of

492
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 1: our lives. But before even the season started, they decided

493
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: a case. And then there are residual cases, right like

494
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: the Alabama case where they could the maps. So talk

495
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: to us about John Roberts taking the final blow to

496
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Actor. And let me just say before

497
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: you start talking. Margay has a really good piece about

498
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: it today in the New York Times.

499
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 4: No, Lex, I haven't seen that, thank you. I'll look

500
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 4: it up after we finished talking. Well, John Roberts would

501
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 4: not be happy to hear you characterizing his court as hyperpartisan.

502
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 4: It certainly looks that way at times, and I think

503
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 4: it operates that way, and it has been operating that way,

504
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 4: especially since the Louisiana versus KLA decision that you mentioned,

505
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 4: which came down at the end of April. It was

506
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 4: much in the news, but maybe we should just recap.

507
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 4: This was a case about Section two of the Voting

508
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 4: Rights Act, which until the end of April twenty twenty six,

509
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 4: protected minority voters from having their voices disenfranchised and wiped

510
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 4: away using electoral maps. So what happened in Calais it

511
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 4: was a radical about face to the way that Section

512
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,239
Speaker 4: two of the Voting Rights Act has been interpreted and

513
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 4: implemented over all these decades. And the really kind of

514
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: surprising thing just to go back to another time that

515
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 4: the Voting Rights Act was gutted, this time by Chief

516
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 4: tr Justice John Roberts in twenty thirteen. That was the

517
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 4: Shelby County versus Holder case. And in that case, when

518
00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 4: preclearance was basically removed as an option, Roberts assured us

519
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: in the very second paragraph of that decision, he said,

520
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 4: Section two of the Voting Rights Act is not affected

521
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 4: by this case. Section two applies nationwide, and it is permanent.

522
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 4: Permanent Molly right. And let's just explain what preclearance is.

523
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 4: So preclearance was the idea that states could not be

524
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 4: trusted to keep their voting not racist, basically, and so

525
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 4: they would have to check with the Attorney General to

526
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 4: make sure that they were not discriminating against people.

527
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:34,479
Speaker 1: Roberts got rid of that.

528
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

529
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 4: So the problem that Roberts had with that is that

530
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 4: it only affected certain states. Certain jurisdictions were held to

531
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 4: a standard that others weren't. And the argument was that

532
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: this goes against equal state sovereignty, that everyone should that

533
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 4: all the states should be able to be under the

534
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 4: same rules. So jurisdictions that had a history of racial

535
00:29:55,240 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 4: discrimination in voting, they shouldn't have any particular hire obstacle

536
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 4: to jump over than any other place. So that was

537
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 4: a justification for Shelby County. But yeah, his argument was,

538
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 4: so the problem with that part of Voting Rights Act

539
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 4: is that only applies to certain places in the country,

540
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 4: but Section two applies nationwide, and that one's permanent. Well,

541
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 4: it was permanent until twenty twenty six. And you know,

542
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 4: just to add one more bit of more recent history,

543
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 4: the case Alan versus Milligan three years ago addressed the

544
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 4: same exact question as Kela, and in that case, the

545
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 4: three liberal justices were joined by Chief Justice Roberts and

546
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 4: Justice Cavanaugh to preserve the functioning of Section two of

547
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 4: the Voting Rights Act and decided that Alabama's map was

548
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 4: illegal under section two and needed to be redrawn to

549
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 4: include a second majority black district. So that was three

550
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 4: years ago.

551
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: So they changed their tune pretty quickly, Yeah they did.

552
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 4: But this time Roberts assigned the opinion to Justice Sam Melido,

553
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 4: who claimed in the opinion that he was only updating

554
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 4: the Voting Rights Act, whereas it was a real upending

555
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 4: of the Voting Right Sact. When I was when I

556
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: think of update, I think of, you know, like Microsoft updating.

557
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 4: It's a version of Microsoft Word and you.

558
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: Guess, blowing up your computer, not blowing up.

559
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 4: Your computer and giving you a new version of word

560
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 4: where you cannot create a document, and it actually like

561
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 4: searches your hard drive for old documents you created and

562
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 4: erases those. But that's in effect what CALA seemed to be.

563
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 4: And then we found out on June second, on Tuesday night,

564
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 4: when the shadow docket order in the most recent round

565
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 4: of the Alabama case came out, that CALA was even

566
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 4: worse than we thought. So after CALA, a three judge

567
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 4: panel reconsidered Alabama's map and said it's still unconstitutional and

568
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 4: it still violates the Voting Rights Acts, even with the

569
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 4: revisions the update that KELA provided, and Alabama raced to

570
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 4: the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court very quickly said

571
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 4: on a six to revote. No, Alabama, you get to

572
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 4: use this map that has only one majority black district,

573
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 4: even though it's been repeatedly found to be discriminatory against

574
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 4: black voters. So that seemed to be the nail in

575
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 4: the coffin of the Voting Rights Act. The Voting Rights

576
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 4: Act is still there. Section two is still there, but

577
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 4: it's not protecting voting rights anymore.

578
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: It's largely decorative right. I mean it doesn't protect voting.

579
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: It just as whatever. Part of the insanity of this

580
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: decision is that it didn't come out with the rest

581
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: of the so like most decisions from this Supreme Court

582
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 1: always come out in June, maybe the end of.

583
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 4: Mad big ones.

584
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, and this didn't come out then because if

585
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,239
Speaker 1: it had come out, then there was no way that

586
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: the redistricting Donald Trump wanted would be able to happen.

587
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

588
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 4: This is where operationally the court does look partisan, if

589
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,959
Speaker 4: not hyperpartisan, because big cases like this come out, as

590
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 4: you said, at the end of may or in June,

591
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 4: but they put it out at the end of April.

592
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 4: And then when Louisiana asked, you know, can you expedite

593
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 4: the handing down of the judgment in this case to

594
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 4: make it operative, which usually there's a one month delay

595
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 4: between the decision coming out and being implemented the Supreme courts,

596
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 4: that's sure, we will rush it for you to allow

597
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 4: Louisiana to redistrict, even though early voting had already started.

598
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 4: Tens of thousands of people in Louisiana had already voted

599
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 4: at that point, and the same thing in Alabama. They've

600
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 4: just unleashed this jerrymandering Fiesta Festival this spring, which is

601
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 4: causing so much confusion to voters, and I think it's

602
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 4: really a self owned by the Supreme Court. If John

603
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 4: Roberts doesn't want the public to view the justices as

604
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 4: political actors, then they can behave the way they normally do,

605
00:33:53,840 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 4: which is slowly, deliberately and without apparently putting six thumbs

606
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 4: on the scale for one party as they're trying to

607
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 4: redistrict before a crucial midterm election season.

608
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: Right now, there are other really important decisions coming down,

609
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 1: So let's talk about some of these other ones. But yes,

610
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: voting rights humongas going to have huge implications infuriating Trump

611
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: versus Slaughter presidential firing power. This is Rebecca Slaughter, a

612
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:32,240
Speaker 1: Democratic member of Federal Trade Commission, fired before her term expires.

613
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: What is your take on this.

614
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 4: Well, Molly, I'm glad you started there, because most people

615
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 4: want to start with birthright citizenship and other cases that

616
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:41,919
Speaker 4: Trump I think is going to lose. But Trump versus

617
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 4: Laughter is the biggest case.

618
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: You tell me if you think this is hyperpartisan on

619
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: my part. This Supreme Court likes to take a few

620
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 1: cases that Donald Trump can lose, like upending birthright citizenship

621
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: to show that they you know, we heard those birthright

622
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: oral arguments. The chance I think are pretty slim, and

623
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: I saw conservative legal scholars supporting bors right citizenship.

624
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 4: So yeah, most too. There's a handful of legal scholars

625
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 4: on the right who are with Trump on this, But

626
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 4: eight ninety nine percent of law professors and others to

627
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 4: look at this question don't see it as a close question.

628
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 4: So Trump is going to lose that one. It could

629
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 4: even be nine and zero, more likely eight to.

630
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: One because Thomas or Alito.

631
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 4: Most commentators think it's going to be Alito dissenting. I

632
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 4: think it's going to be Thomas. It could be both

633
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 4: or neither.

634
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 1: Right, But slaughter is a great example of like, is

635
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,959
Speaker 1: Donald Trump actually a god king? Or is there some

636
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: rules left cram right?

637
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,439
Speaker 4: It is, I mean, it's Trump V'SUS slaughter. There are

638
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 4: lots of cases in the past three years that have

639
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 4: been have had Trump's name on one side of the

640
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,760
Speaker 4: v or the other. So it's been a very trumpy

641
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 4: docket for a very long time now. But this one

642
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 4: it's about Trump, but it's about presidential power much more

643
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 4: broadly down the line, for the ages and that's the

644
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 4: way the Court thinks. Even when they're maybe doing some

645
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 4: things that are a little partisan or a lot partisan,

646
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 4: they're thinking about the next step and the next president

647
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 4: and their bigger aspirations as a conservative majority, what do

648
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 4: they how do they want to steer the law. And

649
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 4: on this matter, it just so happens that there is

650
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 4: a perfect ven diagram between what Trump wants and what

651
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 4: the conservative majority has wanted for decades, which is a

652
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 4: vision of the unitary executive where Article two of the Constitution,

653
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 4: which provides for the executive branch, it says that the

654
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 4: executive branch is headed by by the president and the

655
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 4: power is vested in him. That they think this means

656
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 4: that presidents should have the power to control the entire

657
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 4: executive branch. And if they don't like what a commissioner

658
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 4: on the FTC is up to, or if they disagree

659
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 4: with the way that the National Labor Relations Board is

660
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 4: handling labor to be, they can fire the heads of

661
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: those agencies. Now, Trump desperately wants this power, and the

662
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 4: Supreme Court has been on the shadow docket, on the

663
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 4: interim docket, giving him the ability to fire various members

664
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 4: of these various agencies, but it hasn't yet come down

665
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 4: and said that the ninety one year old precedent that

666
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 4: goes back to the New Deal that protects these agency

667
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 4: heads from removal. When there's a statute as there is

668
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 4: for the FDC and the NRB and the other agencies

669
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 4: that protects them, that these are laws that have to

670
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 4: be upheld. So this seems to be the Conservative the

671
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 4: Conservative Six's primary goal this season, which is to restructure

672
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 4: the federal government and make the executive branch beholden to

673
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 4: the president. And they just happened to pick Donald Trump

674
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 4: as the president under whom that massive change is going

675
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 4: to happen.

676
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: If that happens, yeah, they would definitely do that for

677
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 1: Jo for sure. But I want to ask you if

678
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: that happens, like presidential immunity did something, the immunity decision,

679
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court immunity decision did something for Trump, made

680
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:17,240
Speaker 1: him completely unafraid, made him think there were no legal

681
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 1: consequences to his actions and that he could pretty much

682
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: do anything. Is this like the chaser for that.

683
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 4: Or maybe it's just another shot or another couple of shots,

684
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 4: because that's a protection that I mean Trump versus us

685
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 4: from two years ago when immunity was granted to all

686
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,839
Speaker 4: presidents for basically anything they do in the sal Team

687
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 4: six maybe tangentially related to their work. Right, you can

688
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 4: sick sealed Team six on your arrival and then there'll

689
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 4: be no trouble with that. That protects him from other

690
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 4: types of things that he might want to do that

691
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 4: are unconventional, like, I don't know, negotiate a slush fund

692
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 4: for J six ers to get paid for their bad

693
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 4: behavior and to part in all of them. There are

694
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 4: very few constraints on what Trump can do. One of

695
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 4: the few constraints that has held until now is this

696
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 4: idea that presidents don't get to fire everybody the way

697
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 4: that reality TV stars do. And with this it's going

698
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 4: to be with the exception of the FED, we should

699
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,320
Speaker 4: we should talk about the FED, because I think Trump

700
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 4: is going to lose that case, Trump versus Cook, and

701
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 4: we can talk about why, you know, and how the

702
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 4: court's going to carve that out. But with the exception

703
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 4: of the FED, the entire administrative state, all these federal

704
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 4: agencies I think we have to call them, formerly independent,

705
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,919
Speaker 4: will now be under his thumb, and for better or worse,

706
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 4: under the thumb of future presidents.

707
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: What does that look like. There's a cutout for the

708
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: FAD because they really care about the independence of the

709
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: FAD because it involves the economy, but for everything else. Basically,

710
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: this is unitary executive theory all the way down right, That's.

711
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 4: What it seems like. But how they're going to justify

712
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 4: carving the FED out, I mean, they don't have to

713
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 4: give you a good argument. All they have to say

714
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 4: is that it's carved out. But when they tried a

715
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 4: year ago on the shadow docket, rather than make their

716
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 4: emergency decision quickly when it came to several agencies that

717
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 4: Trump was trying to fire the heads of, they took

718
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 4: six weeks to issue the opinion in Trump versus Wilcox

719
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 4: and a couple other cases last summer. And in the

720
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 4: part of the opinion where they were trying to articulate

721
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 4: a reason for why the FED is protected and you

722
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 4: cannot fire as president members of the fed's Board of Governors,

723
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 4: they just had a couple of lines that indicated, you know,

724
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 4: the FED is distinct historically, it follows in the tradition

725
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 4: of the First and Second Banks of the United States,

726
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 4: but without really giving a reason that distinguishes the FED

727
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 4: from any of these other agencies that were in some

728
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 4: cases created at about the same time in the nineteen ten.

729
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 1: Now it's complete, hooey, let's just go through the other

730
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 1: cases quickly. Mail in ballot deadlines.

731
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, Watson versus R and C. It's an interesting one

732
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 4: because it's Republican versus Republican. You had the solicitor General

733
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 4: of the state of Mississippi up there arguing for mail

734
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 4: in ballots that are received five days after election day

735
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 4: being counted in Mississippi's vote. Mississippi is one of about

736
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 4: eighteen states that has a rule like this that if

737
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 4: as long as you postmark your ballot before election day,

738
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 4: if it arrives a few days later, it'll still be valid.

739
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 4: Trump has been, as you know, extremely upset with mail

740
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 4: in ballots generally and specifically with those that arrive later on,

741
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 4: and the RNC decided to take this on and challenge

742
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 4: Mississippi and say, no, there's only one election day. Congress

743
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 4: sets election day, any votes that are received after that

744
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 4: day should not count. The oral argument seemed to go

745
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 4: much better for Mississippi in my view, Even though the

746
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 4: Republicans had Paul Clement who's known as you know, the

747
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 4: best conservative litigator at the Supreme Court of this era

748
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 4: or maybe of any era. He gave a great argument,

749
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 4: but the justices were very skeptical overall. Maybe with the

750
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 4: exception of one or two. Sam Alito is one of

751
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 4: those that the Supreme Court should upend. I mean, they

752
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 4: do a lot of upending these days, right, but upending

753
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 4: the laws and a bunch of states about how they

754
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 4: run their own elections when the Constitution allows states to

755
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 4: decide how elections are run absent clear rules from Congress

756
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 4: that are set otherwise. I don't think that this is

757
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 4: going to be a case that the RNC wins. I

758
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 4: think mail in ballots will continue to be safe arriving

759
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 4: late in the states where they do accept them late,

760
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 4: and for and one other reason for that, just quickly

761
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 4: that came up in the oral argument. If you don't

762
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 4: accept ballots arriving after election day, then the logic for

763
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 4: early voting is also lost. You would have to ban

764
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 4: early voting and say the only votes to count are

765
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 4: the ones that are cast and counted on election day period.

766
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 4: And that's not something I think their court's going to do.

767
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: Campaign finance limits, it's already dead, but just give me

768
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: two seconds on that.

769
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, this one I think is going to make

770
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 4: campaign finance even more difficult to police. Basically, that case

771
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 4: involves coordination of campaigns with parties, and so it makes

772
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 4: it easier for a big donor to funnel a lot

773
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 4: of money to a candidate, not directly to the candidate,

774
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 4: but through a political party. So it opens up more spigots.

775
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 1: So it'll be even more spigots for donating to political candidates.

776
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: This Supreme Court is just despairing. Is there anything on

777
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 1: this docket that you think is not so crushingly awful

778
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: for me as a part is well?

779
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 4: I think you know, the article that we published in

780
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 4: The Economists last week tried to fairly character what the

781
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 4: Court is doing in terms of Donald Trump. They're facilitating

782
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 4: a lot of what he wants to do, but they

783
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 4: are drawing some lines they as you know, in February,

784
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 4: they struck down his signature economic policy. He cannot impose

785
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 4: tariffs single handedly around the world just as he likes.

786
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,280
Speaker 4: And I think affirming that the Fourteenth Amendment citizenship clause

787
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 4: means what it says that people born in the United

788
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 4: States and subject to the jurisdiction there of our citizens.

789
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 4: That that will be a small bright light. It's a

790
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 4: bright light in an overall dark sky, but it should

791
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 4: be noticed. But I guess the dark side of that

792
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 4: bright light is whenever he loses a case, when he

793
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 4: lost on tariffs, when he loses, as he's anticipatorily complaining about,

794
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 4: when he loses on birthright citizenship, Trump is going to

795
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 4: throw a tantrum and call the justices, including the ones

796
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 4: he appointed, all kinds of names. That actually makes John

797
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 4: Roberts secretly a little giddy because it makes it makes

798
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 4: the court look like it's not in the tank for

799
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 4: Trump all the time, and that it's this more even

800
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 4: handed we call them as we see them. We're more

801
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 4: of an umpire type of court bag.

802
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 1: But nice, Steve, thank you, thank you, thank you for

803
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: coming on.

804
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 4: Totally happy to be here, Thanks so much for having you.

805
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: Molly, no moment, Jesse Cannon.

806
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 2: So MOLLI, our moment of fuckery is some real, real,

807
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 2: real fuckery. So the Trump officials plan to mark two

808
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 2: point seven million living people as dead during the doge scheme.

809
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,800
Speaker 1: This is another thank you, Elon Musk. I mean, basically,

810
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: our entire government is just trying to like undo Elon's

811
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: terrible ideas. Here's one. This is a whistleblower complaint. The

812
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: Trump administration had planned to classify two point seven million

813
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 1: living people, including some US citizens, lawful permanent residents. Those

814
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 1: guys are getting fucked as dead. This is why because

815
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: they don't want to pay them Social Security, because they

816
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: don't want to make sure that they get their disability checks.

817
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 1: This is like, basically Elon Musk is trying to take

818
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 1: the stuff that the government does for you away from you.

819
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 1: I interviewed that guy who talked about USAID and how

820
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: Elon Musk came in to do USAID and just completely

821
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 1: in every which way fucked it up and just took

822
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 1: millions of dollars. And you know, in the interest of

823
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 1: government efficiency, what did he do? He made everything more inefficient.

824
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: So here we have a situation where you know, they

825
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 1: were trying to do stuff to just fuck people, to

826
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 1: keep government money from them, to make sure they're Social Security,

827
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 1: which they paid into, didn't show up for them. And

828
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 1: it's like, you know, we all suspected this is what

829
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: they're doing. They were doing, and it turns out this

830
00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: is all confirmation about what they were doing. That's it

831
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 1: for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday,

832
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: and Saturday to hear the best minds and politics make

833
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: sense of all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast,

834
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

835
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.