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Speaker 2: terms and responsible gaming resources. Moving to the top of
Speaker 2: the Eastern Conference in light of the Yannis injury and
Speaker 2: apparently based on the MRI, it's been a solius injury,
Speaker 2: which is apparently a muscle in your cap that has
Speaker 2: nothing to do with the Achilles tendon.
Speaker 3: But even with.
Speaker 2: The rest that he's taking here at the end of
Speaker 2: the season, his best case scenario is that he gets
Speaker 2: another like eight days off before the series actually starts,
Speaker 2: And especially when it comes to a calf injury, you
Speaker 2: don't want to mess with the potential future implications involving
Speaker 2: the Achilles. So I would imagine they're going to take
Speaker 2: it somewhat cautiously with Yiannis if they do, because that's
Speaker 2: the other thing too, is this season has been kind
Speaker 2: of a lost cause anyway, and you have an opportunity,
Speaker 2: potentially through the mid level exception and the trademarket next
Speaker 2: year to try to make some sort of improvement to
Speaker 2: the roster and rebuild around Dame and Yannis, right, and
Speaker 2: if Yannis permanently hurts himself, or not permanently but substantially
Speaker 2: hurts himself, that could throw a huge wrench into those plans.
Speaker 2: This is not a one year window. There is another
Speaker 2: year here where they could try to make this work.
Speaker 2: And so I think Yannis is there's a chance he
Speaker 2: misses the first round. If he does, I don't want
Speaker 2: to write off the Bucks. They're still a talented team
Speaker 2: with Dame and Brook Lopez anchoring things, and they have
Speaker 2: that capability. But they're gonna run into a good team
Speaker 2: in the first round. It's gonna be someone like Indiana
Speaker 2: or Miami or or Philadelphia or somebody like that. And
Speaker 2: like all three of those teams, I think without Giannis,
Speaker 2: I think you have to pick them to beat Milwaukee.
Speaker 2: So with that being the case, and with the news
Speaker 2: that Julius Randall is not going to play for the
Speaker 2: New York Knicks, in this playoff run. Although the Knicks
Speaker 2: did do look really impressive without Julius Randall, still I'm
Speaker 2: worried about their firepower up top. So I'm gonna pitch
Speaker 2: this to you first, Logan, is there any team in
Speaker 2: the East that is an actual substantial threat to Boston?
Speaker 2: And if the answer is yes, or I should say,
Speaker 2: even if it's.
Speaker 3: No, and you had to pick one, who would you pick?
Speaker 1: I would put all of my chips in Boston coming
Speaker 1: out of the East. But I do think there are
Speaker 1: still two threats. Also, fun fact, I think the soleliest
Speaker 1: is like the most strong muscle in your body, pound abound,
Speaker 1: like in terms of like house all it is in
Speaker 1: terms of the force you can generate from it, Like
Speaker 1: I think it's like the It's like the best pal.
Speaker 1: I hope your honest is healthy. I do think it
Speaker 1: is really detrimental to Milwaukee's like championship hopes. Now, we
Speaker 1: have seen, as you mentioned, Jason Damian Lillard in games
Speaker 1: without Giannis, we have seen him, you know, go insane.
Speaker 1: You know, just I think he has to go super nova.
Speaker 4: Though you guys can.
Speaker 1: Go ahead and call me crazy, you can, you know,
Speaker 1: call me nuts for this one I still believe in
Speaker 1: Miami a little bit with their voodoo magic. Where I
Speaker 1: think that again, I think crazy things have to happen.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of things have to break their
Speaker 1: right way. There's a little bit of a luck factor.
Speaker 1: The team that I don't think has to have things
Speaker 1: break their way as much out east is the Knicks.
Speaker 1: I have been so absurdly high on the Knicks, and
Speaker 1: if we had done our contender list, uh like later
Speaker 1: this week or closer to the playoffs, I think the
Speaker 1: Knicks might have still cracked my top ten even without
Speaker 1: Julius Randall. And it's because of Jalen Brunson. Now, I
Speaker 1: want to be clear about something. I think the next
Speaker 1: are better with Julius Randall. They're especially better with good
Speaker 1: Julius Randall. The size and physicality that you can have
Speaker 1: with that lineup, you know, with a Hartenstein or a
Speaker 1: Robinson a Randall, and it's it's stupid, you know. And
Speaker 1: then the shooting that you have with these guys, with
Speaker 1: Evincenzo shooting the hell out of the pill this year
Speaker 1: in what Brunson brings, but it still is the Knicks
Speaker 1: for me. If I really had to get pushed to
Speaker 1: pick a team if I want to be clear, if
Speaker 1: Milwaukee isn't healthy with Giannis, I would take New York
Speaker 1: Brunson over this. I think last fifteen game stretch is
Speaker 1: thirty five, three and seven on like sixty and a
Speaker 1: half percent true shooting. He's leading the league in points
Speaker 1: per game, and like just those physical advantages. If Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson turns into Superman for a playoff run, which I
Speaker 1: know he is fully and totally capable of, like I
Speaker 1: fully trust Brunson is my number one in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: The way he's able to create shots for his teammates,
Speaker 1: the way this team just plays so cohesively. Man, I
Speaker 1: just love watching the Knicks play. If it's Brunson with
Speaker 1: a dho to Ananobi and Nnob explodes into the paint.
Speaker 1: If it's Brunson getting into the teeth of the defense
Speaker 1: posting up, you know, he gets three defenders looking at
Speaker 1: him and he dumps off a you know, a cut
Speaker 1: to Devincenzo. Brunson is an awesome offensive engine, and so
Speaker 1: that's where my faith with New York starts. But it's
Speaker 1: everything around them. This team is gonna bring the physicality
Speaker 1: in pain defensively, they are gonna play hard all game long.
Speaker 1: They're gonna crash the glass.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: The Knicks are just gonna play really hard on defense,
Speaker 1: and then Brunson is gonna generate great shot quality on offense.
Speaker 1: So there's a little bit where I like Miami. But
Speaker 1: if I really had to pick a team and it's
Speaker 1: not Milwaukee, with a healthy honest, I still believe in
Speaker 1: the Knicks a little bit man like. And that's the thing, right,
Speaker 1: I say the Knicks are better with Julius Randall, but
Speaker 1: it's almost kind of a benefit a little bit, right, guys,
Speaker 1: where it's like, oh, we don't have to worry about
Speaker 1: Julius Randall like putting up to pull up mid range
Speaker 1: jumpers and clanging them all that. You know, it's a
Speaker 1: double edged sword where it's like I do think the
Speaker 1: Knicks are better with great Julius Randall, but they're way
Speaker 1: worse with really bad Julius Randall. So with the og
Speaker 1: Nnobi trade with them getting boy on Bogdanovitch, right, I
Speaker 1: know he hasn't played great with the Knicks. He's still
Speaker 1: a great scorer where he could help swing a series
Speaker 1: with his perimeter shooting. The Knicks are a sneaky With
Speaker 1: Brunson playing at this level, I think the Knicks are
Speaker 1: a sneaky threat out East. With a hamperd Milwaukee team.
Speaker 4: The Knicks would be my second choice to this question.
Speaker 4: The thing to me, Logan, when you're talking about Randall
Speaker 4: being a double edged sword, is not that it's untrue.
Speaker 4: I'm not a Julius Randall guy. I think there are
Speaker 4: clear things about his skill set, being so reliant on
Speaker 4: the pull up shooting where he just has these stretches
Speaker 4: where he goes ice cold. He's super erratic, questionable playmaking,
Speaker 4: just sort of black hole tendencies Like I don't like
Speaker 4: Julius Randall, but when you are talking about beating the Celtics,
Speaker 4: it is a pushing your ceiling to the absolute peak
Speaker 4: that it can be. And there's no question to me
Speaker 4: that if the Knicks want to push their ceiling, they
Speaker 4: would need Julius Randall, just because you have to have
Speaker 4: a second legit shot creator, mismatch attacker. If his pull
Speaker 4: up jumpers are falling. Julius Randold could give you an
Speaker 4: efficient twenty seven to ten and six in a series,
Speaker 4: And I just think you need that because I do
Speaker 4: love how the Knicks match up physically here even without Randall.
Speaker 4: Like with Randall, then that would be a problem. But
Speaker 4: still they're big in the front court. They just have
Speaker 4: absolute dogs with Og on the floor. They have a
Speaker 4: defensive rating of one hundred in the year twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4: It is absurd, and they're eighteen and three when he plays.
Speaker 4: I love the supporting cast, I love the death the
Speaker 4: spot up shooting is so much better than last year.
Speaker 4: And if Jalen Brunson plays like he has been over
Speaker 4: these last fifteen games, then they probably would be the choice.
Speaker 4: But I just think that sort of singular load on
Speaker 4: him against a defense of Boston's caliber isn't sustainable. And
Speaker 4: that's not a bruns And thing. Like I love Brunson,
Speaker 4: I think because of his variety as a shot maker,
Speaker 4: because of how he dominates the paint in the mid range,
Speaker 4: because of his physicality, like he scales very well. But
Speaker 4: you're telling me this guy alone has to deal with
Speaker 4: a full series of Derek White and Drew Holliday and
Speaker 4: Jalen Brown and whatever elite physical, strong perimeter defender they
Speaker 4: want to throw at him, and he has no other
Speaker 4: on ball threats. Really, I just think that that's too much,
Speaker 4: that's too much to put on him. So that's why
Speaker 4: they are my second choice, because I do still like
Speaker 4: a lot of the elements of the formula. Philly to
Speaker 4: me is the team though that has the ceiling, because
Speaker 4: I feel like, if you are going to beat Boston,
Speaker 4: a pretty good box to check. Maybe the key box
Speaker 4: is just having an unstoppable force on the floor, like
Speaker 4: having the guy who is just by head and shoulders
Speaker 4: the best player out there. It's the rationale for picking
Speaker 4: Yo Kitchen the Nuggets. Denver's a really really good basketball team,
Speaker 4: better than Philly overall, but they also just have like
Speaker 4: by far, the best player on the floor, and that's
Speaker 4: why I believe in them. If you think about the
Speaker 4: twenty two finals, this is a much better Boston team.
Speaker 4: But Steph was just this singular force, and of all
Speaker 4: the people in the East who have that sort of ceiling,
Speaker 4: if we're taking honest out of it, like Embiid is
Speaker 4: clearly the guy to me, I don't care about his
Speaker 4: playoff resume. I do care about his playoff resume. But
Speaker 4: if you're just talking about who has the most ability,
Speaker 4: who has like the combination of overwhelming physical traits and
Speaker 4: skilled shot making and can dominate defensively to just completely
Speaker 4: lap everybody else out there on the floor. Embiid has
Speaker 4: that ceiling, and then with Melton back, I think they
Speaker 4: have a pretty nice collection of perimeter defenders. Their spot
Speaker 4: up shooting is okay if Maxie explodes like he has
Speaker 4: been volatile this year. There's been some up and down stretches,
Speaker 4: but if he's knocking down his pull up jumpers consistently,
Speaker 4: it's a tough matchup having to deal with this collection
Speaker 4: of Boston perimeter defenders, and especially they're so big and physical.
Speaker 4: But like if Maxi has just dialed in, there's a
Speaker 4: ceiling there because of the star power that I don't
Speaker 4: see anybody else out east reaching. And there's a reason
Speaker 4: that Philly is thirty and eight win Joe l Embiid plays,
Speaker 4: and it's because mostly he's been that overwhelmingly great and
Speaker 4: they've put a nice complimentary supporting cast, and I know
Speaker 4: that he's struggled historically against Boston and Horford has been
Speaker 4: like the Embiid stopper. But if his jumper's falling, that
Speaker 4: to me was the biggest issue in last year's playoff
Speaker 4: series between the two of them, he just couldn't make
Speaker 4: a jumper. I think if that skilled shotmaking holds up,
Speaker 4: then this ceiling is the roof for him, and that
Speaker 4: just gives Philly more upside than anybody else to me.
Speaker 3: So I.
Speaker 2: Look at there being three potential threats here, and for
Speaker 2: the record, for our sponsor, DraftKings, the Celtics are currently
Speaker 2: minus one seventy to win the Eastern Conference. So yeah,
Speaker 2: Draft Kings views Boston basically is unthreatened in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 2: I more or less feel the same way if I
Speaker 2: had to pick one, though, and when I look at
Speaker 2: those three options, and the three options to me are
Speaker 2: the Knicks, the Bucks, and the Sixers. All three of
Speaker 2: them when they're healthy, I think present a moderate threat
Speaker 2: to Boston. When I say moderate meaning like capable of winning,
Speaker 2: even though you're obviously picking Boston. For Milwaukee, the case is,
Speaker 2: they're literally the best lineup in the league when they're
Speaker 2: healthy minimum four hundred minutes. They're outscoring teams by fifteen
Speaker 2: points per one hundred possessions, which is literally the best
Speaker 2: net rating in the league for a lineup that's played
Speaker 2: that much. For the Knicks, the case is like when
Speaker 2: Julius Randall's healthy, you have a secondary shot crador I
Speaker 2: love it. You have to differentiate between good and bad
Speaker 2: Julius because like when Julius has a long runway and
Speaker 2: is in rhythm, he's actually a pretty solid player, brings
Speaker 2: some physical stuff to the game. When he's out of rhythm,
Speaker 2: he's kind of bad. So like that's kind of like
Speaker 2: more or less a different between the two, but without.
Speaker 2: The thing with the Knicks is like all year long,
Speaker 2: they've been one of the most likable and high character
Speaker 2: teams in the league. They play so hard, they play
Speaker 2: so physical, they do all of these things well. Jalen
Speaker 2: Brunson is legitimately a superstar or a fringe superstar.
Speaker 3: In my opinion.
Speaker 2: He's clearly one of the top fifteen players in the
Speaker 2: league in my opinion after this season has had a
Speaker 2: much better season than Damian Lillard, for instance, He's kind
Speaker 2: of like taking that spot away from him in terms
Speaker 2: of in terms of the regular season. But there's a
Speaker 2: certain talent limitation, and you see that when they play
Speaker 2: their tougher opponents. They're just seven and seventeen this year
Speaker 2: against the teams that are in the top ten in
Speaker 2: point differential for cleaning the glass. They are the fourth
Speaker 2: worst defense in those matchups, giving up one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty three point four points per one hundred possessions. A
Speaker 2: lot of small guards on the floor that the really
Speaker 2: good offenses find a way to attack. So the way
Speaker 2: that I look at it, like New York to me
Speaker 2: is like, if they nail their summer, they're going to
Speaker 2: be a bona fide championship contender next year. I really
Speaker 2: do feel that way. The thing with Philly, because I
Speaker 2: agree with you, Carson, like, what if embiid just goes
Speaker 2: on a wrecking ball run? Has always been the case
Speaker 2: for the upside on when it comes to Philly. However,
Speaker 2: if I had to pick a season for him bid
Speaker 2: to break through in that way, it wouldn't be a
Speaker 2: situation like this where he's coming back from a meniscus
Speaker 2: in April to try to get a ramp up and go, Like,
Speaker 2: I just don't think he has the runway to suddenly
Speaker 2: figure out his playoff issues that he's had in the past.
Speaker 2: They they're undefeated since he returned to the lineup against
Speaker 2: Oklahoma City Thunder. But outside of the Thunder game and
Speaker 2: the Thunder did sit a bunch of guys in that game.
Speaker 2: They really haven't played anybody, So, I mean, em beads
Speaker 2: look fine, but he like, it's hard to really interpret
Speaker 2: anything from that. So if I had to pick an
Speaker 2: example of a thread, if I had to, the case
Speaker 2: would be Milwaukee gets some sort of favorable first round matchup.
Speaker 2: Like let's say Miami gets through, and Miami obviously is
Speaker 2: kind of an exposer of fraudulent teams, and I'd probably
Speaker 2: still pick Miami to win that series. But let's say
Speaker 2: that you just ride the home crowd, because Milwaukee's been
Speaker 2: like one of those teams that can be kind of
Speaker 2: a buzzsaw at home. They go up two Oho, they
Speaker 2: go down to Miami, they steal one, Dame goes for
Speaker 2: forty five in Game five, and they win. Okay, at
Speaker 2: that point, let's say Yanis returns in May, and you
Speaker 2: more or less have the team that we've seen their
Speaker 2: top five be so dominant. I just think of all
Speaker 2: of the potential outcomes, that is the most realistic is
Speaker 2: that somehow Milwaukee survives the first round. Then they get
Speaker 2: Yannis back, and Yannis is not embeied. He does not
Speaker 2: need a runway. That dude, walks on the court and
Speaker 2: is thirty two and fifteen. So like that kind of
Speaker 2: is more or less how I see the case for
Speaker 2: a team, But I don't I don't necessarily see a
Speaker 2: threat to Boston a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 2: All right, let's move out to the bottom of the West,
Speaker 2: so the playan can go in a million different directions
Speaker 2: based on tonight. Tonight has some crazy showdowns. So we
Speaker 2: have the Suns at the Kings, the Pelicans at the Warriors,
Speaker 2: and the Lakers at the Grizzlies. And the Lakers will
Speaker 2: be happy favorites against the Grizzlies, but the Grizzlies had
Speaker 2: a three game winning streak this month, including they went
Speaker 2: into Milwaukee and beat the Bucks with Giannis although without Dame.
Speaker 2: So like the Grizzlies are feisty, they're not necessarily a
Speaker 2: complete right off in that game. But to explain the
Speaker 2: kind of a play in situation for everybody who doesn't
Speaker 2: understand it, the Lakers, the Kings, and the Warriors are
Speaker 2: all tied right now, but the Lakers, no matter what,
Speaker 2: are losing the tiebreaker in those situations. The only team
Speaker 2: they have a tie breaker over is the Phoenix Suns. Also,
Speaker 2: all three of those teams are out of striking distance
Speaker 2: of the New Orleans Pelicans, so they cannot get up
Speaker 2: to the sixth seed. The best they can all hope
Speaker 2: for is seven. Now, if the Suns beat the Kings tonight,
Speaker 2: and the Pelicans beat the Warriors tonight, and the Lakers
Speaker 2: beat the Grizzlies tonight, so all three road teams win,
Speaker 2: the Lakers will move into that eighth spot, and then
Speaker 2: we'll end up with the Kings Warriors at the bottom.
Speaker 2: When we get to Sunday's games, they're all more straightforward.
Speaker 2: There's a Lakers at Pelicans. That's a tough game, but
Speaker 2: Suns at Minnesota. That's a tough one for the Suns
Speaker 2: because the Wolves are probably going to be fending off
Speaker 2: Oklahoma City at that point and need to win that game,
Speaker 2: and Minnesota at home in a must win game, you're
Speaker 2: probably going to pick them there. But the Warriors have
Speaker 2: an easy game at home against the Jazz, and the
Speaker 2: Kings have an easy game at home against the Blazers.
Speaker 2: So if the Kings and Warriors win tonight against the
Speaker 2: Suns and the Pelicans, then the Lakers will probably end
Speaker 2: up at ten. So like it could go in all
Speaker 2: of these different directions. So I don't even want to
Speaker 2: try to like sort out who's gonna end up where,
Speaker 2: because that's just to me a complete and total crapshoot.
Speaker 3: So I look at it like this.
Speaker 2: I think all of these teams, except for the Pelicans
Speaker 2: and the Kings, meaning the Suns, Willers, and the Warriors,
Speaker 2: are teams that have a legitimate threat to go make
Speaker 2: some noise in the postseason. So the way you look
Speaker 2: at it is, if you're for real, you got to
Speaker 2: be able to go win this one game sample to
Speaker 2: be able to get into the postseason, no different than
Speaker 2: winning a game six when you're down three games to
Speaker 2: two and you got to go on the road, or
Speaker 2: winning a game seven if it's a series that's tied.
Speaker 2: Right like, it's playoff basketball at this point. So from
Speaker 2: that standpoint, let's just look at the strengths of the teams.
Speaker 2: Who do we think are going to be the seven
Speaker 2: and the eight seeds when the dust settles from all
Speaker 2: of this, And I'm not talking about which one goes where.
Speaker 2: I'm just saying who's gonna be in those spots, Who's
Speaker 2: gonna be six, who's gonna be seven. Who's gonna be eight? Carson,
Speaker 2: you go first.
Speaker 4: So I'm going to predict that the Pels stay at six,
Speaker 4: even though they do have like two competitive games remaining.
Speaker 4: I think the Suns are at seven because they do
Speaker 4: you have this advantage in terms of record, and you said,
Speaker 4: we don't want to get too into the particulars of
Speaker 4: the matchups. But if they had anybody other than the
Speaker 4: Lakers in that seven eight, like I would pick them then.
Speaker 4: I just think the ceiling they do have because of
Speaker 4: their shot creation, their offensive skill, the level they can
Speaker 4: defend at when they're engaged is not the highest, but
Speaker 4: I like that formula. The Kings, to me, are just
Speaker 4: like a clear weakest out of this group, especially post Herder,
Speaker 4: but especially Malik Monk injuries, Like since he went down,
Speaker 4: they're three to five, they've looked very uninspiring. I just
Speaker 4: think like the dribble penetration, the shot making, the playmaking
Speaker 4: he brings is super important. So I kind of rule
Speaker 4: them out. And then for the eight seed Lakers Warriors,
Speaker 4: I do still believe in the Lakers more. The Warriors
Speaker 4: are playing really good basketball. They are playing their best
Speaker 4: basketball of the year. They are defending at a high level.
Speaker 4: It feels like all of the key players outside of
Speaker 4: maybe Steph who hasn't been his best, but are just
Speaker 4: kind of in rhythm right now. You've gotten more aggressive,
Speaker 4: consistent Wiggins, But the Lakers are a brutal matchup for
Speaker 4: the Warriors because of their overwhelming size advantage. And I
Speaker 4: think that, of course, it was a different iteration last
Speaker 4: year because they also had much better answers in terms
Speaker 4: of point of attack defense for Steph Curry, and they
Speaker 4: were able to just kind of hassle him throughout that series,
Speaker 4: even though he still dictated things. They don't have that
Speaker 4: sort of point of attack defender healthy and available right
Speaker 4: now at the very least. But I just think eighty
Speaker 4: is a problem for the Warriors. They have not had
Speaker 4: an answer for him whatsoever on the interior, on the glass,
Speaker 4: and defensively, like in a single game or in a
Speaker 4: playoff environment. He's the guy who I want most on
Speaker 4: the planet, Sam goes for like single game Lebron, who
Speaker 4: offensively since the All Star Break has been so absurdly
Speaker 4: good over twenty seven and nine on sixty seven percent
Speaker 4: through shooting, And I just think like when it comes
Speaker 4: down to it, he's gonna hunt the mismatches he wants.
Speaker 4: He's going to get what he wants at will when
Speaker 4: he is shooting like this. What a lethal offensive player.
Speaker 4: So to me, the Lakers just have more firepower. They
Speaker 4: have two superstars. The Warriors have one, and they have
Speaker 4: one who I still absolutely believe in but has been
Speaker 4: more erratic as of late than really any stretch in
Speaker 4: recent memory. But it's ultimately about the offensive burden that
Speaker 4: Steph bears in the lack of shot creation around him,
Speaker 4: where even if you didn't have crazy Lebron, like, would
Speaker 4: you be shocked if Delo and Austin Reeves combined for
Speaker 4: forty five? Of course, not like they're totally capable of
Speaker 4: doing that. And then I still like the Lakers the
Speaker 4: most in terms of playoff prospects out of all of
Speaker 4: these playing teams. I just think their path they're probably
Speaker 4: gonna have to come from that nine to ten game.
Speaker 4: Maybe that they don't, but it just feels like these
Speaker 4: teams are gonna be playing so hard. I think the
Speaker 4: Kings maybe end up in the ten, but I like
Speaker 4: the Lakers more than the Warriors, and so I would
Speaker 4: go Suns and Lakers in the seven and eight.
Speaker 1: I'd also go Suns and Lakers. I think LA if
Speaker 1: they have to travel again. I don't want to get
Speaker 1: too much into theoreticals. If they have to go to
Speaker 1: Golden State, I think that's a tough draw first round.
Speaker 1: But as I know you've mentioned, Jason, I think it
Speaker 1: was a social clip a couple of weeks ago. You know,
Speaker 1: the Lakers have been a great team with their backs
Speaker 1: against the wall against great competition. They're always gonna be
Speaker 1: super physical, They're always gonna be great on the glass.
Speaker 1: And then like what Carson said, God, hey, Dan lebron Man,
Speaker 1: I can bank on those guys handling business. And it
Speaker 1: really is sad that the Lakers have dug themselves this
Speaker 1: hole and they've made this bed for themselves. I don't know,
Speaker 1: it's funny you were talking, Jason, I think last show
Speaker 1: or about the stretch after the Ncason Tournament, and it
Speaker 1: was like after they won the NCAS and tournament and
Speaker 1: was like, all right, guys, put off the gas man,
Speaker 1: we already did it. You know we're gonna be great
Speaker 1: come playoff time. They just they took that stretch for granted,
Speaker 1: I still do believe in the Lakers, and then yeah,
Speaker 1: in one game scenarios. I think Golden State the role
Speaker 1: players have been playing better. I think Steph has to
Speaker 1: go Crez and I'm not saying that's not possible, but
Speaker 1: they're a slight team, been inconsistent. I don't believe in Sacramento.
Speaker 1: I'm a Kings fan, but without herd Or and Monk,
Speaker 1: it's tough. The Kings seem to have the Lakers' number, though,
Speaker 1: so I think, I don't know. I think King's Lakers
Speaker 1: is gonna be a really interesting matchup, just the Bonus
Speaker 1: is so strong, like he's just physical. He matches up
Speaker 1: with eighty really well. But I'm gonna err on the
Speaker 1: side of the teams with two superstars. The Sons have
Speaker 1: Katie and d Book and I think they are gonna
Speaker 1: go crazy, and then the Lakers have Lebron and Ad.
Speaker 1: It's ironic that you know, at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: that's what it's gonna come down to, is I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna trust the teams with the most superstar talent to
Speaker 1: propel themselves. So yeah, I would take Phoenix probably in
Speaker 1: the seventh spot, and then la Is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got this on social but I didn't have
Speaker 2: a chance to say it on the show. These were
Speaker 2: the crazy Lakers stats that I found the other day
Speaker 2: during the three to ten stretch after the n season tournament,
Speaker 2: when Darvin ham was playing Cam Reddish Andorian Prints fifty
Speaker 2: nine point two minutes per James. During the same span,
Speaker 2: Ruyatamura Jared Vanderbilt were barely playing forty minutes a game.
Speaker 2: D Lo was playing the same amount of minutes as
Speaker 2: Cam Reddish. This is the real the Haymaker though. In
Speaker 2: over twenty six hundred possessions with Cam Reddish Andorian Prints
Speaker 2: off the floor this season, the Lakers have a plus
Speaker 2: nine point three net rating cleaning the glass, which her perspective,
Speaker 2: and again this is never apples to apples because the
Speaker 2: Timberwolves have played some bad lineups this year too, But
Speaker 2: the Timberwolves have the second best net rating in the
Speaker 2: league basically at plus seven. So to give you an idea,
Speaker 2: the Lakers, if you just removed the Cam Reddish Tatorian
Speaker 2: Prince minutes, have performed like a bona fide championship contender
Speaker 2: in a massive, massive sample size. That's how much of
Speaker 2: a catastrophe that specific issue has been, which is why
Speaker 2: I have still to this day I had another tweet yesterday,
Speaker 2: like why is he talking about a ten seed in
Speaker 2: the Western Conference? And it's like people just they struggle
Speaker 2: to sift through that, especially the Western Conference. To me, again,
Speaker 2: even the Warriors to me, belong in the same conversations
Speaker 2: as these other teams in the West. They probably deserve
Speaker 2: to be at the bottom of that list. But they're
Speaker 2: the thing with the Warriors that they haven't been very
Speaker 2: good against the good teams in the league this year.
Speaker 2: That's their main kind of gripe that you have to
Speaker 2: point to. The Lakers have seventeen wins against teams in
Speaker 2: the top ten in point differential, which is the best
Speaker 2: tide for the with Oklahoma City for the most in
Speaker 2: the league, and they are fifth in point differential against
Speaker 2: the teams that are in the top ten in point differential.
Speaker 2: So the Lakers have been consistently good against the good
Speaker 2: teams in the league this year. Here's kind of how
Speaker 2: I look at this situation if I had to predict what's.
Speaker 3: Going to happen. The Warriors are are really good.
Speaker 2: Especially playing against limited teams or teams that I don't
Speaker 2: think are particularly good. For instance, the Pelicans. They're starting
Speaker 2: five with CJ. McCollum and Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram
Speaker 2: and Design Williams Williamson and Jonas Malacunas that starting five
Speaker 2: has a negative net rating this years. Somehow, they're just
Speaker 2: to me. The Pelicans have always then the most fraudulent
Speaker 2: of those teams that are consistently in the mix there
Speaker 2: in the Western Conference. So I think that the Warriors
Speaker 2: will beat the Pelicans tonight at home, and again, Pelicans
Speaker 2: can win that game. I'm not trying to write them off.
Speaker 2: They put length on Steph. Steph as a rough night.
Speaker 2: Other guys don't make shots. They could very easily lose
Speaker 2: that game. But I'm gonna pick the Warriors tonight. I
Speaker 2: do think the Suns will go into Sacramento and beat
Speaker 2: the Kings, so that would put the Lakers up into
Speaker 2: the ninth spot, the Warriors into the eighth spot, and
Speaker 2: the Kings down at the ten spot. From there, if
Speaker 2: the Lakers beat the Pelicans and the Suns beat Minnesota,
Speaker 2: that would be the ideal outcome for the Lakers because
Speaker 2: that would kick the Suns up into the sixth seed
Speaker 2: and the Pelicans at the seven. The the Lakers would
Speaker 2: still be at nine, but then the Lakers would have
Speaker 2: a home game against the Kings, and then they would
Speaker 2: get to play the loser of Golden State versus the Pelicans,
Speaker 2: which I think is are better matchups for them. The
Speaker 2: Lakers did get their butt kicked by the Suns the
Speaker 2: last time they played them, so that could be a
Speaker 2: little bit of a concern. The Kings have been a
Speaker 2: bad matchup for the Lakers, but without Malik Monk in
Speaker 2: the equation, they can key in on Deer and Fox Moore,
Speaker 2: and I just think it gives them a substantially better
Speaker 2: chance of winning that game, So that I think is
Speaker 2: the most likely outcome.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Suns will necessarily beat Minnesota. That's
Speaker 2: a tough one. And the problem is is like if
Speaker 2: Oklahoma City beats Milwaukee tonight and Minnesota beats Atlanta tonight
Speaker 2: and Denver beat San Antonio tonight, then Minnesota and Oklahoma
Speaker 2: City both need to win on Sunday to maintain their standing.
Speaker 2: Or if Oklahoma City, like that is still in flux
Speaker 2: for the two three, and that obviously is home court
Speaker 2: advantage for the conference semi so that's a substantial reward
Speaker 2: that you're fighting for there, and Both of those teams
Speaker 2: are gonna want home court advantage because they're young, they're athletic,
Speaker 2: they feed on their defense, so on and so forth.
Speaker 2: So looking at it from that perspective, I think the
Speaker 2: Wolves will beat the Sun. So my best guess is
Speaker 2: we'll have Pelicans at and then it'll be Suns Warriors
Speaker 2: in the seven eight game in Phoenix, and then it'll
Speaker 2: be Lakers Kings in the nine to ten game. I
Speaker 2: think the Lakers will beat the Kings. I think Suns
Speaker 2: Warriors could go either way, but regardless of who wins
Speaker 2: that game, I would pick the Lakers to win on
Speaker 2: the road against the loser of that game. So it's
Speaker 2: going to either be Pelican's Sons Lakers or Pelican's Warriors Lakers,
Speaker 2: is my best guess. If I had to pick gun
Speaker 2: to my head right now, I'm gonna go Pelican Sons
Speaker 2: Lakers as the six, seven eight right now. So that
Speaker 2: was a mouthful. That was a very very confusing type
Speaker 2: of situation, but that's kind of the way I see
Speaker 2: it breaking down. And then we have a good chance
Speaker 2: of seeing Lakers Nuggets in the first round, which would
Speaker 2: be at least for that at least if that if
Speaker 2: I'm Lebron there, and I'd rather face the Nuggets later on.
Speaker 2: But if I'm Lebron there, I'm sitting there thinking like, like,
Speaker 2: at least we'll find out right away off the start year,
Speaker 2: I won't have to do I won't have to go
Speaker 2: through a month long war with some before we see
Speaker 2: the Nuggets. So all right, before we get out here today,
Speaker 2: we're gonna spend some time doing a deep dive into
Speaker 2: the Clippers versus the MAVs series. This is the one
Speaker 2: series that is actually set in stone at this point.
Speaker 2: They've played three times this year, and the Clippers have
Speaker 2: won two of them, but they have not played since
Speaker 2: the They have not played since the since the calendar
Speaker 2: turned over, so they have one game in December, two
Speaker 2: games in November.
Speaker 3: Clippers.
Speaker 2: The MAVs beat the shit out of them during that
Speaker 2: six game losing streak when when they had just made
Speaker 2: the James Harden trade. Then they played again shortly after that,
Speaker 2: and the Clippers kind of handled them and really locked
Speaker 2: up Luca and they struggled, and then the Clippers won
Speaker 2: a game in December where Kyrie did not play. So
Speaker 2: that's more or less what we're working with. Here, So
Speaker 2: we have no evidence of what it looks like with PJ.
Speaker 2: Washington and Daniel Gafford. We have no evidence of what
Speaker 2: it looks like with the good MAVs versus the good
Speaker 2: version of the Clippers.
Speaker 3: A lot of this.
Speaker 2: Is gonna be basically hypothetical, but I want to go
Speaker 2: through both ends of the floor. I want to start
Speaker 2: with Clippers on offense, and let's just kind of bounce
Speaker 2: around here. Who's gonna guard Kawhi to start this series?
Speaker 2: Let's start with you, Logan, I.
Speaker 1: Guess I'm sticking PJ or Derek Jones Junior. You gotta
Speaker 1: have somebody. I'm I like PJ. I probably stick PJ
Speaker 1: on Kawhi.
Speaker 3: What about you, Carson?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, I think that PJ you probably want.
Speaker 4: I mean, both of him and Derek Jones Junior have
Speaker 4: good size and good length, but PJ is just bigger, longer,
Speaker 4: and stronger, and I think Kawhi is so physical that
Speaker 4: like he's in a pretty good mold to match up
Speaker 4: with him.
Speaker 2: So they started Grant Williams on PJ Washington last time,
Speaker 2: excuse me, on Kawhi Leonard in the regular season this year.
Speaker 2: Obviously that's gonna be PJ. Washington in the starting configuration.
Speaker 2: My guess is the starting configuration will be PJ. Washington
Speaker 2: on Kawhi and then Derrek Jones Junior on Paul George.
Speaker 2: Derek Jones Junior guarded Paul George in a lot of
Speaker 2: their matchups this particular season. I prefer Derek Jones on
Speaker 2: guards personally. I like when he uses his length and quickness.
Speaker 2: He struggles a little bit against the bigger forwards that
Speaker 2: he goes against. But this is kind of the predicament
Speaker 2: that Dallas is in with this particular matchup. Is like,
Speaker 2: if you put Derek Jones on Paul George, then you
Speaker 2: have to put most likely Kyrie Irving onto James Harden.
Speaker 2: And that's, you know, a matchup that James Harden is
Speaker 2: gonna feel more comfortable in than he would in some
Speaker 2: other matchups. And so that's where it gets tricky for me,
Speaker 2: is like, is there a version of this where the
Speaker 2: MAVs lean heavily into Maxie at the five and then
Speaker 2: have Maxi on Kawhi and then try to put PJ.
Speaker 2: Washington on Paul George so that they can put Derek
Speaker 2: Jones on James Harden. But that like the the matchups
Speaker 2: are a little bit tricky for Dallas in this one.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna I'm gonna bounce this around to you guys,
Speaker 2: and we'll go to you first. Carson, Like, how would
Speaker 2: you just match up in both the starting five and
Speaker 2: in your ideal kind of configuration against the Clippers if
Speaker 2: you're Dallas.
Speaker 4: So I think that you talk about an interesting counter there.
Speaker 4: And historically we've seen a bunch of like mixing and
Speaker 4: matching and small ball in these Dallas Clippers series. It's
Speaker 4: been super fun. Like we saw the Clippers go five
Speaker 4: out because Luca was toasting Zubots every time that he
Speaker 4: got a switch, and then the MAVs played bulbon like
Speaker 4: legit minutes to try to counter that. So I expect
Speaker 4: there to be some of that. I also think the
Speaker 4: Clippers can't go small how they used to because they
Speaker 4: don't have Batoom. And I like what you're talking about
Speaker 4: in terms of Maxi matching up with Kawhi not having
Speaker 4: a weak perimeter defender on James Harden. My concern at
Speaker 4: that point is just like how you deal with Zubots,
Speaker 4: because I think he is the level of interior finisher
Speaker 4: and mismatch attacker. He's like a ninetieth percentile post score
Speaker 4: this year, and he doesn't miss those hooking touch shots.
Speaker 4: He is like the closest to Jokic in terms of
Speaker 4: efficiency from that range, and in fact, I think this
Speaker 4: year it's much lower volume, obviously, but he's making like
Speaker 4: sixty six percent. So I just worry about if he
Speaker 4: plays those small ball looks off the floor to where
Speaker 4: they're not tenable for Dallas because they're gonna have to
Speaker 4: try to match up physically. And I think that they
Speaker 4: can with an actual five out there like Gafford, but
Speaker 4: I'm not sure that they can survive the small ball
Speaker 4: looks here.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't play Kleeber at all. I'm not a Kleeber guy.
Speaker 1: I also just think that having the weapon of Gafford
Speaker 1: and Lively on the court at all times is really valuable.
Speaker 1: I want to ask those so what are we doing
Speaker 1: with Luca in this hypothetical?
Speaker 3: Like, who are we in a likelihood? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, I'm I'm gonna be honest with you guys.
Speaker 1: I'm completely disregarding James Harden. I don't care who I
Speaker 1: put on him. I'm expecting him to break everything dude,
Speaker 1: I'm going I'm going PJ on I'm going Derek Jones
Speaker 1: Junior on PG. PG also didn't have a great UH
Speaker 1: against small sample size three games, PG was seventeen points
Speaker 1: on you know, thirty nine to twenty five splits. Again,
Speaker 1: that's a bad stretch of the season, so it's hard
Speaker 1: to really gauge that was a matchup thing or just
Speaker 1: you know, a bad stretch from him. But I think
Speaker 1: I'm comfortable with that PJ on Kawhi Derek Jones Junior
Speaker 1: on PG And yeah, I don't know, man, I I'm
Speaker 1: not a big Kleiba guy.
Speaker 4: I guarded Kawhi ud over the years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm very much a Kleeba guy. Put me in
Speaker 2: team Kleeba guy over here. I don't know what Logan.
Speaker 3: Deal with man.
Speaker 4: I mean, he's handled those big physical wings. He's like
Speaker 4: built to guard Kawhi. That's like the one player in
Speaker 4: the league who like.
Speaker 2: I have a stat from I have a stat for you, Logan.
Speaker 2: So the reason why I love I actually talked about
Speaker 2: this a lot in my film session yesterday, But I
Speaker 2: love the PJ. Washington, MAXI kleeb playing together in the
Speaker 2: front court configuration. Those two guys have played four hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty five possessions together and they're plus nineteen net
Speaker 2: rating and they have a one hundred defensive rating. With
Speaker 2: that group, they only give up an offensive rebound on
Speaker 2: twenty two point three percent of missus. So that's what
Speaker 2: a seventy seven point seven percent defensive rebound percentage, which
Speaker 2: is incredible. The to me, like when I when I
Speaker 2: look at the starting configuration, because they're gonna start Gafford right,
Speaker 2: and so it'll be Gafford ver Zubatch And like Carson,
Speaker 2: you hinted at this, and I'm one hundred percent with you.
Speaker 2: This is a Zubatch series in so many different ways
Speaker 2: because like, if Zubach is on the floor and playing well,
Speaker 2: Dallas will have to size up to deal with him.
Speaker 2: If Gafford is on the floor or Lively, whoever it
Speaker 2: is that they have at the five spot, that puts
Speaker 2: you in a predicament with the other three guys because
Speaker 2: you need Luca to not be guarding James harden Kawhi
Speaker 2: Leonard or Paul George right. That is going to that's
Speaker 2: going to put a lot of pressure on Kyrie Irving
Speaker 2: to be very good defensively in the series. Now, for
Speaker 2: the record, I think Kyrie Irving is a guy that,
Speaker 2: like in the aggregate, is an average to blow average
Speaker 2: defensive player. But when he does his job, he has
Speaker 2: the tools to be an impactful defensive player. And we've
Speaker 2: seen I even thought he was very good defensively in
Speaker 2: the twenty sixteen finals for the most part, So like
Speaker 2: he has that in him. Obviously a much younger version
Speaker 2: of him, but like that's gonna be the big swing factor.
Speaker 2: If Dallas can do enough damage to Zubaj that that
Speaker 2: the Clippers end up going small, That's where I look
Speaker 2: at at or if Kleiba can somehow hang with Zubach
Speaker 2: enough and they can get to that PJ. Washington Kliba
Speaker 2: front court, that to me is the scariest version of
Speaker 2: this team. If you can get Luca and Kyrie out
Speaker 2: there with Derek Jones and PJ. Washington in MAXI Kliba.
Speaker 2: I'm putting Kleeban Kawhi, I'm putting PJ. Washington on Paul George,
Speaker 2: I'm putting Derek Joe Junior on James Harden, and I'm
Speaker 2: hedging and recovering every action with Kyrie Irving and Luka
Speaker 2: Danciic in it, and I actually like the the MAVs
Speaker 2: chances in that configuration. I definitely think small ball heavily
Speaker 2: favors Dallas in this matchup.
Speaker 3: Do you guys agree?
Speaker 4: One thousand percent? And obviously their regular season matchups this
Speaker 4: year were weird, but we did see, like in the
Speaker 4: game that Dallas won convincingly a pretty extended stretch of
Speaker 4: Clippers small ball, and it just doesn't work the same
Speaker 4: with PJ. Tucker, Like I think they're conceding too much
Speaker 4: size and they're just not as athletic as they used
Speaker 4: to be, Like all of these guys have lost some
Speaker 4: athleticism to where they used to be able to hang
Speaker 4: defensively much more. But I totally agree. I think Luca
Speaker 4: is going to be an absolute problem no matter what
Speaker 4: the Clippers do. But I think they're probably at their
Speaker 4: best defensively, like starting with Zoo in, drop in Kawhi
Speaker 4: on Luca, and then I think they're gonna have to
Speaker 4: mix in like a heavy deal of trapping and just say, okay,
Speaker 4: Derek Jones Junior, PJ. Washington, like knock down your spot
Speaker 4: up jumpers off this four on three because we just
Speaker 4: can't let Luca murder us in single coverage. Sorry, I
Speaker 4: moved to Dallas offense, but I was just thinking about
Speaker 4: that time hermutations with the getting Zoo off the floor.
Speaker 4: I think the Clippers really want Zoo on the floor
Speaker 4: in this. I think his physicality is rebounding, his interior defense,
Speaker 4: and his just overall finishing offensively. It is something that
Speaker 4: they kind of need if they go small. I just
Speaker 4: think Dallas has more pop and their small ball is
Speaker 4: also bigger than the Clippers.
Speaker 3: It just is.
Speaker 1: I mean, I just think Luca is just such a
Speaker 1: problem no matter what lineup you throw at him. I
Speaker 1: mean you can go back and watch like the games
Speaker 1: between these two teams, La threw everybody at him. If
Speaker 1: it was Kawhi, if it was PJ, if it was Zoo,
Speaker 1: if it was Terrence Man. I don't really know if
Speaker 1: it matters. Like to me, the high pick and roll
Speaker 1: action with Louke is just so hard to stop every
Speaker 1: possession down. Yeah, I don't know if it matters. And
Speaker 1: I think Carson made a good point like if the
Speaker 1: Clippers had but Tom, I think that's a real difference
Speaker 1: maker and like just another look that you can throw
Speaker 1: with him PJ.
Speaker 4: Tucker is.
Speaker 1: I mean, I just can he guard anybody at this age?
Speaker 4: Like I know that he's a dog, He's a bulldog.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's a dog. But it's like, you know,
Speaker 1: they tried to put him on Luca, and Luca just
Speaker 1: abused him. I mean, the Luca abuses everybody, but PJ
Speaker 1: couldn't hold him. I think I think every lineup configuration
Speaker 1: is a problem for la Man. Luca is just a
Speaker 1: nightmare to deal with. Man. I don't think there's a solution.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Clippers are going to be able
Speaker 2: to do much switching against Luca because I think Lucas
Speaker 2: gonna feel comfortable against every single Clipper that's not named Kawhi. Now,
Speaker 2: the way I expect them to start the series, I
Speaker 2: expect them to start with Terrence Man on Luca, and
Speaker 2: I expect them to start with Paul Ju on Kyrie,
Speaker 2: and I expect them to start with Kawhi on PJ.
Speaker 2: Washington and Help. That's just based on some of the
Speaker 2: stuff that I saw from the regular season matchups this year. However,
Speaker 2: this will eventually tilt towards Kawhi on Luca. That's what
Speaker 2: happened in the previous iterations of this matchup in the postseason.
Speaker 2: That was what turned it around last time when Luca
Speaker 2: had them on the ropes. It was Kawhi one on
Speaker 2: Luca and was able to kind of change the dynamic
Speaker 2: of the series. What I think about happening and where
Speaker 2: I think this is inevitably heading. As I mentioned, I
Speaker 2: think on Luca will force Luca to call up ball screens.
Speaker 2: So Luca has this tendency of being like, oh, I
Speaker 2: don't want to deal with the traps, so I'm just
Speaker 2: going to take my guy in straight ISO, And obviously
Speaker 2: a hard double in a hard double in a straight
Speaker 2: ISO situation compromises the defense more than a hard double
Speaker 2: in a ball screen because a hard double and the
Speaker 2: ball screen the screeners in a little bit of a
Speaker 2: this in fantagious position as he's trying to disengage and
Speaker 2: get the basketball, whereas in a double team in an ISO,
Speaker 2: you can just flash and there's usually an opening that
Speaker 2: you can capitalize on. So from there, kind of looking
Speaker 2: back at the Warriors game when they beat the MAVs,
Speaker 2: what was that a week ago? Like Andrew Wiggins actually
Speaker 2: makes Luca a little uncomfortable and specifically, he doesn't even
Speaker 2: feel comfortable getting to his pull up three. So what
Speaker 2: that did is that made Luca call ball streams consistently,
Speaker 2: which allowed Golden State to trap, which then got them
Speaker 2: in rotation. And they're not as good at the four
Speaker 2: on threes as some of the other teams in the league.
Speaker 2: They'll get the ball to the corners, but it's like
Speaker 2: it's PJ. Washington shooting a corner three. It's a Derek
Speaker 2: Jones junior corner three, it's a Maxicaliba corner three. It's
Speaker 2: that sort of thing, and they can miss those shots. Now,
Speaker 2: as I've said before about the MAVs, I think that
Speaker 2: dynamic still favors Dallas in the sense that it's worth
Speaker 2: it to have PJ. Washington and maxically as defenders in
Speaker 2: what they can do, like it's worth it to have
Speaker 2: the two way ceiling that the MAVs have. But my
Speaker 2: guess is that eventually, over the course of the series series,
Speaker 2: Kawhi will end up on Luca, and then.
Speaker 3: They will Luca will call for ball.
Speaker 2: Screens to attempt to get Kawhi off of him, which
Speaker 2: will lead to a heavy trapping and rotating kind of situation.
Speaker 2: I actually think both teams are gonna make each other
Speaker 2: uncomfortable for extended stretches. I think when the MAVs go
Speaker 2: small and they put Klebo Washington and Derek Jones on
Speaker 2: the Big three, they'll be able to slow down the
Speaker 2: Clippers for stretches. And I think the Clippers are going
Speaker 2: to be able to slow down the MAVs for stretches
Speaker 2: by putting Kawhi on Luka don Chicch and trapping Kyrie
Speaker 2: obviously is gonna have advantages, but Kyrie is not the
Speaker 2: type of vor force that Luca is in terms of
Speaker 2: like being truly unguardable in terms of specific types of matchups.
Speaker 2: So I do think that that that's the direction this
Speaker 2: is heading, and that's what kind of keeps me thinking
Speaker 2: this is going to be a.
Speaker 3: Very long series.
Speaker 2: I would say this if Kawi was healthy, and I mean,
Speaker 2: like obviously healthy and ramped up for this. I've called
Speaker 2: this a seven game series, but with Kauai's question marks
Speaker 2: and him probably being a little out of rhythm when
Speaker 2: he enters into this series, I kind of lean towards
Speaker 2: Dallas and six. So let's start with you, Carson, what's
Speaker 2: your prediction for how this series is gonna go.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take Dallas and six as well. And just
Speaker 4: one more fun stat real quick on the trapping, because
Speaker 4: I do think that's gonna be important for the Clippers.
Speaker 4: Over the last four years before this season, three out
Speaker 4: of those four years, the MAVs were a more efficient
Speaker 4: offense out of pick and roll when teams trapped Luca.
Speaker 4: This year and sample sizes the factor with all this,
Speaker 4: but they've been significantly less efficient. They average like zero
Speaker 4: twenty eight nine points per possession, which really isn't good.
Speaker 4: And I think the biggest factor is just that the
Speaker 4: spot up shooting isn't as good. And you mentioned it's
Speaker 4: like if PJ. Washington goes twenty five percent in a
Speaker 4: season from deep, if Derek Jones Junior goes twenty five percent,
Speaker 4: like you just wouldn't be surprised. So I think forcing
Speaker 4: the ball out of Luca's hands just with the level
Speaker 4: he's at, and I do think they have to have
Speaker 4: Kawhi on him when it matters most. But ultimately, I
Speaker 4: just love what I've been seeing from this Dallas team.
Speaker 4: I think the offensive level that they've been at is ridiculous.
Speaker 4: I think that they have much more consistently shown defensive
Speaker 4: engagement as of late, and it's the playoffs, so it's
Speaker 4: gonna be a different beast. I think we get a
Speaker 4: better version of the Clippers defense definitely than we have.
Speaker 4: But I do think they match up physically and athletically
Speaker 4: in the front court and on the glass much better
Speaker 4: than they have in recent years. So with my concerns
Speaker 4: about Harden, with not fully knowing about Kawhi's health, and
Speaker 4: with the fact that Luca again like you can trap,
Speaker 4: and you can do that in stretches, but I still
Speaker 4: think even if it comes down to him resorting to
Speaker 4: attacking you and Iso, especially anybody other than Kawhi, like
Speaker 4: he's just at that special level offensively right now where
Speaker 4: it feels like he can basically get you good shots
Speaker 4: almost no matter what. And Kyrie has been so dynamic offensively.
Speaker 4: I'm just really, really optimistic about Dallas. But I do
Speaker 4: think Thelippers are really good, and I think this is
Speaker 4: going to be a hell of a series. But I
Speaker 4: would take the MAVs in six really quickly.
Speaker 2: Before you go, Logan, that was funny Carson referred to
Speaker 2: them as the Lippers.
Speaker 4: Oh well, you know, James R. I am the system.
Speaker 2: So to Carson's point, I was just pulling up the numbers.
Speaker 2: When the MAVs shot out of pick and roll this year,
Speaker 2: they were a ninetieth percentile efficiency team. When they got
Speaker 2: a shot out of a trap in pick and roll
Speaker 2: this year, they were thirty third percentile inefficiency, and they
Speaker 2: were about looks like about seven tenths of a point
Speaker 2: worse on a per possession basis. So yeah, like that
Speaker 2: that that I And by the way, we're still picking
Speaker 2: the MAVs. I'm just saying like it is tilted in
Speaker 2: the sense that it used to be, like, for instance,
Speaker 2: Golden State, like they in the twenty twenty two series,
Speaker 2: they were staying home and trying to force Luca to
Speaker 2: score because, especially with the Wiggans matchup, it just was
Speaker 2: a tough one for him. But they were so good
Speaker 2: shooting off the ball. They said so much off ball shooting,
Speaker 2: and this team is just more geared towards defensive personnel,
Speaker 2: and yeah, like the best way to guard this Dallas
Speaker 2: Mavericks team is to get the ball out of Luca's
Speaker 2: hands and try to make someone else shoot, which is
Speaker 2: typically not the way you want to deal with that
Speaker 2: type of matchup. All right, Logan, what's your pick for
Speaker 2: the series?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't mean to beat a dead horse,
Speaker 1: but I'm completely with you. I wrote down, Dallas, do.
Speaker 2: You want to throw in some hard in slander before
Speaker 2: you make your Yeah, come on.
Speaker 4: An average prediction. I'm going to predict your prediction is
Speaker 4: four points per game on six percent shooting.
Speaker 1: I'll give him like nine points per game on thirty
Speaker 1: five percent. You know, maybe if Harden's feeling himself, maybe
Speaker 1: he could get to ten.
Speaker 4: Man, if he's really falling.
Speaker 1: You know, I think you guys make some some great points.
Speaker 1: I think that the key to this series to me
Speaker 1: is Kawhi wearing out Luca throughout the duration of the series,
Speaker 1: and yeah, forcing those guys to make shots. But the
Speaker 1: key thing with Dallas, I think you hit on it, Carson.
Speaker 1: I really trust this defense. They've been so locked in
Speaker 1: down this backstretch. I think Lucas gonna be the best
Speaker 1: player in this series. I think he is an unsolvable problem.
Speaker 1: And then another thing to me, I think Kyrie Irving
Speaker 1: is the best co stars that Luca has ever had
Speaker 1: on the stage. And you know, I know that Jalen
Speaker 1: Brunson had I mean a great stretch, you know, during
Speaker 1: that Western Conference Finals run, even in games where Luca
Speaker 1: wasn't out there. So this doesn't mean I don't want
Speaker 1: to discredit what Brunson did during that run, but he's
Speaker 1: a different player now, you know. I mean, he is
Speaker 1: just in a different tier of ability now at this
Speaker 1: stage in his career. This is the best co star
Speaker 1: that you know, Luca has ever had. And with these
Speaker 1: questions surrounding the Clippers, I just couldn't pick them. Kawhi's
Speaker 1: health as we've talked on so much, and then yeah,
Speaker 1: I think James Harden is due for another dud in
Speaker 1: the playoff. Shocker, what a hot take. So yeah, I
Speaker 1: think Dallas is just a better team. But I do
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a really good series, and
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if LA somehow pushed this seven.
Speaker 1: But I think it's uh, I think the Mavericks.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I speak for all of us when
Speaker 2: I say like it's I this This frustrates me every
Speaker 2: single year. Like I I remember in the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two Western Conference Finals, I was like, man, this is
Speaker 2: a total coin flip series for me. But I'm gonna
Speaker 2: pick Dallas, and I picked Dallas in six if I
Speaker 2: remember correctly, and then Warriors fans forever were just like.
Speaker 3: You picked against us, blah blah blah.
Speaker 2: You didn't believe in us, even though I picked them
Speaker 2: in every other round that they played in that in
Speaker 2: that playoff runt. And it's funny because that's the thing,
Speaker 2: Like I am picking Dallas, I feel confident that they
Speaker 2: should be the favorite.
Speaker 3: I'll actually pull up.
Speaker 2: The numbers on DraftKings to see if they have posted
Speaker 2: an actual series odds for that yet. But like the
Speaker 2: as far as I'm concerned, all of these are more
Speaker 2: or less toss ups, like any matchup that doesn't involve
Speaker 2: Denver in the Western Conference. For me, it's gonna be
Speaker 2: like I'm picking this team, but like sixty forty. And
Speaker 2: that's the thing, Like I have Dallas as my third
Speaker 2: best championship contender. You know who's right behind him, the
Speaker 2: Clippers at four. So even though I'm picking Dallas to
Speaker 2: win this series, like I very much believe in the
Speaker 2: Clippers as a playoff team, I very much believe in
Speaker 2: them as a legitimate threat, and I don't want to
Speaker 2: like kind of write that off, if that makes sense.
Speaker 2: I'm not seeing any odds for the Clippers mav series,
Speaker 2: which is kind of a bummer. They should totally have
Speaker 2: that up. Maybe I'm just looking in the wrong place.
Speaker 2: We'll have to look it up later. But anyway, any
Speaker 2: other thoughts on this series before we get out any
Speaker 2: any like random kind of things you're gonna be looking
Speaker 2: out for. Any are we gonna get like who's more
Speaker 2: likely to botch this for the Clippers? Rt Westbrooker, Harden
Speaker 2: like that.
Speaker 4: Sort of It's a good question. I mean, I would
Speaker 4: say Hardened just because of the scale of his role,
Speaker 4: but Ross obviously could just have like brutal, brutal shooting stretches.
Speaker 4: But I think overall what he does, like pushing the
Speaker 4: pace with the bench units, and you mentioned obviously his
Speaker 4: effort in the series against the Suns last year, like
Speaker 4: defensively it was really impressive, and how he can impact
Speaker 4: the game with his athleticism. The biggest thing for me
Speaker 4: that we haven't really touched on is just the stakes
Speaker 4: of this moment and like the history of this matchup,
Speaker 4: because these have been two of the best first round
Speaker 4: series in recent years, and I think this pretty clearly
Speaker 4: has the potential to be the best because there's just
Speaker 4: more basketball talent on the floor now with Kyrie out there,
Speaker 4: even with Harden out there as a third star level
Speaker 4: guy for the Clippers. Luca's better than he's ever been.
Speaker 4: And historically Luca just had like these ridiculous repoint shooting
Speaker 4: season series against the Clippers where it's like, Okay, he's
Speaker 4: reigning forty to forty five percent of his step back threes,
Speaker 4: but that has become closer and closer to the norm
Speaker 4: for him, Like he's just gotten so much more consistent
Speaker 4: in terms of his step back and pull up three
Speaker 4: point shooting efficiencies. So I kind of think he's gonna
Speaker 4: go nuclear on them again, and he just has done
Speaker 4: that over the years. So I'm excited to see the
Speaker 4: rematch and the potential Luca revenge element of it.
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a long series too. Go ahead, log.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they took this down. I don't know
Speaker 1: if like too many people were hammering it. It looks
Speaker 1: like the line opened up at Clippers favored minus really
Speaker 1: oh LUs one for it. Like I said, they took
Speaker 1: this down. It's not but that was what the line has.
Speaker 4: Is surprising to me. I thought MAVs would be a
Speaker 4: slight favorite. I get that they're on the road, but.
Speaker 2: I think they're probably holding off waiting for the Kauhi
Speaker 2: injury news too.
Speaker 3: I'm sure.
Speaker 2: I'm sure they're gonna wait until they have a more
Speaker 2: concrete and so I did some digging on it this morning.
Speaker 2: It sounds like he got an MRI that came back negative.
Speaker 2: I'm less worried about him being able to play Game
Speaker 2: one and more worried about how good he's going to
Speaker 2: be when he when he's playing in Game one.
Speaker 3: All right, guys, that is all we have for today.
Speaker 2: Before we got out of here, Carson, you want to
Speaker 2: shout out what you guys are working on over at
Speaker 2: NERDS Test. I saw you did a video on Lebron
Speaker 2: James he is eternal.
Speaker 4: Look, did do a video on Lebron. Did do a
Speaker 4: video on Lebron he is anal dug into just sort
Speaker 4: of the ways that he's adapted his game this year
Speaker 4: to not just continue to dominate, but even improve from
Speaker 4: last year. So we are doing content like that and
Speaker 4: want to ramp that up throughout the playoffs. That's sort
Speaker 4: of like ten twelve minute video breakdowns on specific players
Speaker 4: and topics, but we also, of course do our full
Speaker 4: length shows. We've been three times a week during the playoffs.
Speaker 4: We might even ramp that up. We'll be going live
Speaker 4: after games as well. But you can always find those
Speaker 4: full shows on the Nerd Sash YouTube page and you
Speaker 4: can listen across audio platforms. And if you want our
Speaker 4: trivia content, that's the other big thing we do. That's
Speaker 4: TikTok and Instagram at nerd Sash, Twitter at nerd Underscore sessh.
Speaker 3: The Nerds do great work.
Speaker 2: Make sure you guys get over to their channel on
Speaker 2: Subscribe and subscribe and support it. We're also gonna be
Speaker 2: working with them throughout the playoff run, just the you know,
Speaker 2: random shit talking sessions between rounds.
Speaker 3: You know how it goes.
Speaker 2: As always, we sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us.
Speaker 2: No show tomorrow, but we're gonna Sunday afternoon. I'm going
Speaker 2: with Colin Coward, so that's the next time we'll be
Speaker 2: breaking down. We'll be doing a little playoff previews, so
Speaker 2: I will see you guys on Sunday evening.
Speaker 3: Until then, hope you guys enjoy your weekend.
Speaker 1: The volume