1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Welcome to One Bills Light. You're by the numbers discussion 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: space for the Bills and the NFL coming up. What 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,960 Speaker 1: does the formation of Buffalo's fifty three man rosters say 4 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: about the team heading into the twenty twenty one season. 5 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: Steve Tasker is tested on the healthiest starting quarterbacks in 6 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,319 Speaker 1: the league and the most productive safeties of football. And 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: we discussed which is more valuable to wins and losses, 8 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: takeaways or third down conversions? Line up? Everybody at a 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: Steve Taster who has been all over the fields kind 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 1: of unique. He was kind of a dual role player 11 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: for you. Steve, Steve a blimp. We're not even in 12 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: the stratosphere of normalcy. Thanks for joining us here on 13 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: one Bills Lighting, your numbers oriented focus on the Bills 14 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: in the l Chris Brown and Steve Tasker here with 15 00:00:56,720 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: you as always, and Steve, we begin with the fifty 16 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: three man roster. It's awesome shuffling after the initial roster 17 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: was said on Tuesday this past week. But first biggest 18 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: takeaways from the makeup of the roster, Well, they took 19 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: a risk released four corners from their defensive backfield group, 20 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: but they brought most of them, brought them back on 21 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: the practice squad. They're going to go a little bit, 22 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: in my opinion, a little bit light at defensive back, 23 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 1: four safeties, five corners, but they went very heavy at 24 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 1: defensive line. I think it's a it's a I think 25 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: it's a focus for the entire offseason. They've got to 26 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: get more pressure on the pass or they've got to 27 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: do a better job against the run, and it all 28 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: starts up front. Yep, and eleven defensive lineman. I mean, 29 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: that just puts a stamp on the whole dang thing, 30 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: doesn't it. I mean, six defensive ends is not unprecedented 31 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: in the scope of the NFL forming rosters, but for 32 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: this team, that's a heavy number. And they traded away 33 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: a defensive end prior to the formation of the fifty 34 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: three man roster who was certainly fifty three man roster worthy. Yes, absolutely. 35 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: Bam Johnson was a guy that they had played well 36 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: for them in the first two years of his career. 37 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: Played some reps, some valuable reps at defensive end, but 38 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 1: also a ton of reps at special teams. He was 39 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: a guy that was active every week in the NFL. 40 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: When the guy was healthy, he was on the field, 41 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: and they traded him because they felt like an I agree, 42 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: their neck deep in quality defensive end pass rushers, guys 43 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: who are every down defensive ends. We'll see if it 44 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: takes it, if they take a hit on special teams 45 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: and their coverage units. But man oh man, it's a 46 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: nod to what they think is important going forward defensively. 47 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 1: And while it's clear based on those numbers on the 48 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: defensive line that they deemed their pass rush to be 49 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: important for success in twenty twenty one, is there any 50 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: other part of the roster's formation that indicates what else 51 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: might be important for this team's success this season? Two 52 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: tight ends? Only two tight ends. Sometimes you have four 53 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 1: two tight ends. It's the lowest I've ever seen. With 54 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: a slash fullback as a third guy in Reggie Gilliam 55 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: and seven wideouts, they're they're gonna heave the ball. I mean, 56 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 1: this is almost it's I don't want to say run 57 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 1: and shoot. You know, it's not like that, but why 58 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: can't it be? But they've got they've got a quarterback 59 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: with a big arm who's a big athlete. They're putting 60 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on every corner of the field. 61 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: Every snap and defenses are stretched razor thin to cover them. 62 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: So I think that's their philosophy. Yeah, they are technically 63 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: now down to six receivers on the roster after putting 64 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: Marquez Stevenson on injured reserve and adding long snapper Reed 65 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: Ferguson back to the roster. A common move that Brandon 66 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: Bean has adopted the last couple of years where they 67 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: just ask a veteran to hold their water when they 68 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: make the initial fifty three man roster, then make some 69 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: ir designations and bring them back on and they're just 70 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: basically without a team for twenty four hours. That allows 71 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: them to keep Marquess Stevenson after three weeks. You'll be 72 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 1: able to come back onto the offense active roster if so, 73 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: if they need him, but they don't have to. Yeah. 74 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: And also they kept Isaiah Hodgins also on the practice squad, 75 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: but got him over there as well, so they've got 76 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: young guys ready to step in if indeed there's a 77 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: rash of injuries. Yeah, they're gonna heave it around. And 78 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 1: I said, we've got it written on the white board 79 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 1: in the control room, five thousand yards Josh gonna throw 80 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: for I may double down on it because they're they're 81 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: because I really believe that's going to be the signature 82 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 1: of this team. Is there something you might have considered 83 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: that you would have done differently with the Bill's roster 84 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: than what we witnessed this past week, Any configuration maybe 85 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: that you would have altered slightly or felt safer with 86 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: going into the season. I still don't know if they've 87 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: decided on the interior their offensive line with Cody Ford, 88 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 1: like Butker and John Feliciano. They brought in some guys 89 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: to help with that. Forced lamps on ir Jack Anderson. 90 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: They drafted all of these guys, and I don't know 91 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 1: that they've found anybody that says, wow, we've got to 92 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: play those guys. So that is a concern for me 93 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: going forward. I have a lot of trust in Feliciano. 94 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: I know Cody Ford can hold his own at least, 95 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: and Ike Butcker played extremely well there last year, But 96 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: the same interior guys down there, I don't know that 97 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: your running game is going to take a big step forward. Yeah, 98 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: I I've always felt this way because it seems to 99 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 1: me over the course of the roster formations over the 100 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: years under the McDermott being regime, they have historically gone 101 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: light at the cornerback position. Now they've been able to 102 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 1: get away with it the last few years. It hasn't 103 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: really come back to bite them hard. But I'm I'm 104 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: always looking at that and I don't know. Maybe I'm 105 00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: defensive minded when I think about these things, but I'm 106 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: inclined to go heavy at corner not only because if 107 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: you go short and you have one injury, I don't 108 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 1: want to say you're scrambling, but you're trying to fill 109 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: a void and it's not always easy to do that. 110 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: And I know they added corners to the practice squad 111 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: to kind of insulate themselves. But the more I think 112 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: about where this league is going, and what the Bills 113 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: and the Cardinals and the Bucks did with four wide 114 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: personnel with relatively high percentages in terms of the history 115 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: of the league, I have to believe the rest of 116 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 1: the league is going to very soon follow and I'm 117 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: inclined to get ahead of that curve and make sure 118 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: I really invest in top flight cover players, whether you're 119 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: mining for late round draft choices, which the Bills have done, 120 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: I mean Dane Jackson, Rashad wild Goose, even some of 121 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 1: these other undrafted players that they've picked up over the years. 122 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: I would prefer to go heavy there. I think they've 123 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: insulated themselves with three corners on their practice squad that 124 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: they can work to develop. But it's going that way. 125 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: You're going to very quickly get to a point in 126 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: time in this league where you are going to need 127 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: four solid corners, not top flight, but at least one 128 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: top flight and three guys you believe in and trust 129 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: or because they're gonna have to be on the field 130 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: a lot more in this league going forward week to week. Yeah, 131 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: the league is more and more becoming about pass protection, 132 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: pass rush, and matchups in the secondary. Yeah, run and 133 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: stop the run. You know, it's like a cave drawing. Yeah, 134 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: it's I mean, it's you know, it's not gonna happen. 135 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: So now it's it's about matchups, getting guys, getting your 136 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: best guy on their worst guy if you can, if 137 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: you can do it, and and it's hard, and it's 138 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: that's what it's about. And I think we would agree 139 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: based on the population numbers we see every year in 140 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: the draft, it's a lot easier to find those receivers 141 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: that can run forward than the pinners who can run 142 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: in reverse, they're hard to find, hard to find, So 143 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: just something I'll be keeping my eye on in years 144 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: to come as roster formations continue year over year. All right, Steve, 145 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: let's move on to the numbers game. It's time to 146 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: quiz you on the healthiest quarterbacks in football. From twenty twenty, 147 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: there were a total of twelve starting qbs who started 148 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: all sixteen games for their respective teams last season, which 149 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: is pretty good considering you had the COVID concerns in 150 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: addition to the normal injury concerns. So I want to 151 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: see if you can get at least eight of the 152 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: twelve quarterbacks who made all sixteen starts for their team 153 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: last season. Let's go. Ready, I'm ready. I will start 154 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 1: and say, first of all, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers is 155 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: not on the list, Steve, what he missed a game somewhere? 156 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: He wasn't on the list. Pat Mahomes, Patrick Mahomes, No 157 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: missed the game. Okay, Now I'm awash in the sea 158 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: of uncertainty. Well, there's there's Josh Allen. There you go, 159 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 1: Josh Allen. I will say, wow, this is yeah. All 160 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: of a sudden, I becoming Jared Goff Jared Goff is 161 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: a no. Russ Wilson Russell Wilson, Yes, yet two got 162 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: six to go together? Murray Kyler Murray correct. I'll say, 163 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: which might be surprising. Hey, Ryan Tannehill Ran Tannehill as yes, 164 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. Her cousins got through all sixteen last year? Yes, yes, okay? Well, 165 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: how more am I standing? Do you have five of 166 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:52,599 Speaker 1: the required eight for this numbers game challenge? Lamar Lamar, No, 167 00:09:52,720 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: Remember he missed a game for COVID. That's more. Let 168 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 1: me down, I'll say, hmm, Matt Ryan Man Ryan did, Yes, 169 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: he did. Tom Brady, Tom Brady is correct. I got it? 170 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: So you have seven? All right? He'd one more? I 171 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: will say, Derek Carr. Derek Carr is correct, So eight 172 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: out of twelve. We want to try to go for 173 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: your queen sweep here? Damn? Okay? Deshaun Watson, Deshaun Watson 174 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: is correct. Ben Roethlisberger, No, god' Ben Roethlisberger. I will say, 175 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: that's three to go. Really starting Daniel Jones not Daniel Jones. 176 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: Darting quarterbacks who started all three sixteen games, not Drew Brees. 177 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: Let's see here. Teddy Bridgewater not Teddy, I'm running out 178 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: of teams. One guy is not in the league anymore. Seriously, yes, 179 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 1: last year was his final season. Oh, Philip Rivers. There 180 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: you go, Philip Rivers. Another guy is playing Baker Mayfield. 181 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield is correct. And one guy is playing somewhere 182 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:41,079 Speaker 1: else this season. Matt, Matt, Matthews. Nope, the kid from Detroit. 183 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: What's his name? This is awesome? Is I hold on? 184 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: Let me Steve, Let me get my glasses on, Matt Stafford. 185 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: There we go. The synapses have connected, all twelve. Good job, Steve, 186 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: all right, Part two of the numbers Game. These players 187 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: are the only three in the NFL who since twenty 188 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: seventeen have accumulated at least three hundred tackles, at least 189 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: ten interceptions, and at least five sacks. So over the 190 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 1: last four seasons, at least three hundred tackles, at least 191 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: ten interceptions, and at least five sacks. And the hint 192 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 1: I will give you they are all safeties. Yes, okay, 193 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: I don't know if I can even name a safety 194 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: other in Poyer in high the kid and the kid 195 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: that went from the Jets of the Seattle Seahawks, Jamal 196 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: Adammal No doesn't have the picks. Jordan Poyer. Poyer is 197 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: one four hundred, fourteen tackles, thirteen interceptions, seven sacks. He 198 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: stands alone, does he not one of three guys? Well, 199 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: he kills it in the tackle department gap nobody. These 200 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: other two guys aren't even close to him in tackles. 201 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: They are close in the other catacles. Who I think 202 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,439 Speaker 1: these are recognizable names for you, Tyron Matthew, that's correct. 203 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: Three hundred tackles exactly, fourteen picks, six sacks. You have 204 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:22,319 Speaker 1: one more. If you need a hint, I can give 205 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: you one. Give me a hint. He is in the NFC. 206 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: That's a hint. Well, it's a safety in the NFC. 207 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: I cut the league in half more. You an NFC safety, 208 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: the guy from Tampa Bay. It is not the guy 209 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: from Tampa Bay. We were talking about Antoine Winfield. No 210 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: idea safeties? Who do it? I will go. I will 211 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: narrow it down to division NFC North. Give me a 212 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: good safety in that. I can't name a safety in 213 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: the NFC North. The Green Bay safety. That guy just 214 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: signed a big contract extension this past week with his team. Oh, 215 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: I don't know who that or whom he has played 216 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: his entire career. Oh so it's not okay, Steve takes 217 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: a sip with his coffee and he count and plains 218 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: his options. I have no idea. All right, it is 219 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: Harrison Smith. I don't even know that guy. Oh yeah, 220 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: you do. Come on, he's Harrison Smith in a good 221 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: safety for a while up there. He just operates in No. Man, 222 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 1: think there's another team other than the Minnesota Vikings that 223 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: is further off my radar. Yeah? Really, they stink in 224 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: a bad division and they're in the other conference. Yea, 225 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: and they've got they they got a quarterback that is 226 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: a yawner. Did they have a winning record or were 227 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: they five hundred? I can't even remember. That's That'll tell 228 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: you how far off the radar they are. They're they're 229 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: the Siberia of the NFL. They're like, are they worse 230 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: than Cincinnati in terms of being on the NFL radar? 231 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: They're a blank page for me. Wow, that division? You 232 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: don't want to you want to know why Aaron Rodgers 233 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: is so good? He plays against the Vikings, the JA Lions, 234 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: and the Bears every year. I really fascinated by that 235 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: because I think You're right. They are very much out 236 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: of the normal stream of NFL consciousness. The Vikings are 237 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: probably a team like that. The Bengals are a team 238 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: like that. Who else would you lump in there? Arizona? 239 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: Arizona because they're at the bottom of that division. Yeah, yeah, 240 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: they've got a little buzz because of Kyler, But that's it. 241 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: Do you put Jacksonville in there? Maybe not anymore with 242 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: Trevor and Urban, but maybe they're Yeah, they got a 243 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: little fresh juice because of those two. That is the 244 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: Siberian Wasteland of the NFC North is just an absolute 245 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: sinkhole of attention. Sinkle just uh, well, yeah, that that's impressive. 246 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: Only three players over the four season of him he 247 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: has had. Jordan Poyer has put together a stretch here 248 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 1: in Buffalo that is top notch, and he still has 249 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: not been properly recognized. Nobody looks at him. Nobody looks 250 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: at him. One of the most underrated players in the 251 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: leagues by far. All right, well done, Steve. That's it 252 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: for the numbers game. We now move on to the 253 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: second numbers discussion and address which is more valuable to 254 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: getting victories, turnover differential or third down conversions. I think 255 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: we can agree that both are critical to success in 256 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: terms of coming out on the right end to the scoreboard. 257 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: But does one carry more value than the other? Yeah, 258 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: I think. I think it's turnover differential. You do, okay, 259 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: I do believe it's turnover. It's always been the holy 260 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: grail for defenses and third down conversion while it is 261 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: a little bit of a deeper dive into what's really 262 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: going on in the game, because you know, it takes 263 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: into account first and second down and third and third 264 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: and distance. Yeah, you know whatever that is third and 265 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: short and if you're going third and short all day, 266 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: you'd do better than its gonna be third and nine. 267 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: That tells you something about how your offense is playing. 268 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: I get all of that, and now possession of the 269 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: ball is key, and I think turnovers are the biggest difference. 270 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a chicken and an egg 271 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 1: discussion though, yeah, when you think about it, because you 272 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: have to get the ball back first of all for 273 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: third down conversions to even enter into the discussion. But 274 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: at the same time, if you get the ball back 275 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: and you don't convert a third down, you're giving it 276 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: back to the other team. In four plays anyway, So 277 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: I think it's very much a chicken in the egg 278 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 1: discussion here. I'm conflicted, I really am, because points are 279 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: what wins you games, and you need more points than 280 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: the other team. Obviously, if you're getting turnovers, you're taking 281 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 1: away point scoring opportunities from your opponent and giving them 282 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 1: to your offense, right, But you have to move the 283 00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: football to get those points, unless you're getting turnovers deep 284 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: in the opponent's territory. And even if you don't gain 285 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: a yard, you can kick a field goal, and I 286 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: guess that might be where third down conversions are rendered moot. 287 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: But still you'd rather have a touchdown than a field goal. 288 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 1: So I think you can very easily go back and 289 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 1: forth on this discussion as to what is more important. 290 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: So here are some statistics to lend further context to 291 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: the discussion. Last season, five of the top nine teams 292 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 1: in turnover differential won their division, so turnover differential certainly 293 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: aided in helping those teams post enough victories to be 294 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: the best in their respective divisions. Tennessee plus eleven they 295 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: win the AFC South New Orleans plus nine they win 296 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: the NFC South Pittsburgh plus nine, AFC North Green Bay 297 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: plus seven, NFC North Kansas City plus six, they win 298 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: the NFC West. Eight of the top nine teams in 299 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 1: turnover differential qualified for the postseason. Every one of the 300 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: top twelve teams in turnover differential last season won at 301 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 1: least ten games, which included seven of eight division winners. 302 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 1: The only ten win team that did not reach the 303 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: postseason was Miami. As for third down conversions, though, Steve, 304 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: last season, each of the top five teams in third 305 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: down conversion rate won their division. Each of the top 306 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: five Buffalo at forty nine point seven, Green Bay forty 307 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: nine point four, Kansas City forty nine, Baltimore forty eight 308 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: point eight, Tennessee forty six point two. Each of the 309 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 1: top three teams in third down percentage advanced to their 310 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:37,159 Speaker 1: conference championship games in twenty twenty. Tampa Bay was the 311 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: only outlier in that category. Last year, eight of the 312 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 1: nine teams to score at least fifty offensive touchdowns and 313 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 1: convert at least forty percent of their third downs made 314 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: the playoffs. The only outlier was Minnesota, who was off 315 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 1: the radar. That's right, So with that in mind, Steve, 316 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: do all of these statistics change your initial viewpoint of 317 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 1: what might be more valuable in putting crooked numbers in 318 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 1: the win column. Well, here's the thing. Yes, both those 319 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: statistics have a lot to say about how good your 320 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 1: football team is going to be. Correct, the more unpredictable 321 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: one or the one that has more to do with 322 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:15,239 Speaker 1: the other team as much to do with the other 323 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 1: team as it does years is to turnover. So your 324 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: turnover ratio, while it does give you an opportunity to win, 325 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,960 Speaker 1: the thing that says that most about your team is 326 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: the third down conversion, staying on right, scoring a lot 327 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,479 Speaker 1: of points, hard to get off the field. I mean, 328 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: you look at the look at the five teams that 329 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,640 Speaker 1: led the league in third down conversion Buffalo, Green Bay, 330 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: Kansas City, Baltimore, Tennessee. Yeah, that's a that's a group. 331 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 1: That's a group right there. Last year they played extremely 332 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 1: well and the only one that was out of that 333 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: was Tampa Bay and they were not far behind. Yeah. Right, 334 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 1: So you're right, and I was right in saying that 335 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 1: the third down conversion is a deeper dive into who 336 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: you really are. Yeah, And I think that shows I 337 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: think in that statistic. Let me pose this to you, 338 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: because I think you would agree. I'm guessing that you 339 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: would agree on this. Turnovers also require a little bit 340 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: of luck, right, and and maybe some mistake by the 341 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: other team that correct has nothing to do with you, right. 342 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,640 Speaker 1: So third down conversion rate is all about your quality 343 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: of execution, where takeaways sometimes you're dependent upon the other 344 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: team screwing up or just the bounce of the football 345 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: on a fumble. Well, yeah, here's right. Yeah. And another 346 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: way to say it is that your third down conversion 347 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: rate is something about how good you are. Yeah, you're 348 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: a good team. You're on the feeling, and turnover ratio 349 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 1: is more like breaks. You know, how many breaks do 350 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: you get? I'm reminded, and you can make your own. Yes. Still, 351 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: I am reminded of the two thousand and one Chicago Bears. 352 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: They just popped into my head when I mentioned luck. 353 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 1: They led the league in takeaways that year. We're winning 354 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: games in overtime with lucky breaks. And when thirteen and 355 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: three and Dick Giron won AP Coach of the Year, 356 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,640 Speaker 1: and they might have been the luckiest damn team in football. 357 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: I think Jim Miller was their quarterback. No offense to Jim, 358 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 1: but I mean that guy's not going to be remembered 359 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 1: in the annals of quarterbacks in the league. And luck 360 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: had a lot to do with their thirteen and three record, 361 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 1: and the next year they were under five hundred, and 362 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 1: I don't I think Dick Duron was out of a job. 363 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: So I wrestle with that because, yes, I agree with you, 364 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: I think they're down. Conversion rate is a better indicator 365 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: of the quality of team that you are, although I'm 366 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: sure defenders across the league would argue, hey, it takes 367 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: some skill to get takeaways. Also, it takes film study 368 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 1: to get takeaways and put yourself in position to get turnovers. 369 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 1: But the bounce of the football I think adds a 370 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: measure of luck to that equation as well, And so 371 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 1: because of that I might find my way to the 372 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: third down conversions being more valuable. Yeah, I think on 373 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: my two twins because it's interesting, because it's You're right, 374 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 1: it's a little chicken and egg conversation, because turnovers probably 375 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: have more to do with what actually happens in the game. 376 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 1: They spin the game in the direction they spin it 377 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 1: positive or negative, whichever side of the ball you're on, 378 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: and sometimes there's no recovering from it. Yeah, but the 379 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: fact that it's an unpredictability says And like you say, 380 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: a team like Chicago who can't play can go thirteen 381 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: and three with turnovers. I don't know that a team, 382 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: you know, like Green Bay, Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, Tennessee, 383 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: I don't know that they You know that they aren't 384 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 1: They're not dependent on dependent on luck, so they're gonna 385 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,959 Speaker 1: But like Buffalo, we played as tough a schedule as 386 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: there was last year and still converted in almost fifty 387 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: percent of our third downs and led the league in 388 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 1: that category. Right, it says something about your team and 389 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: they win thirteen games and one of the three losses 390 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: is on a hail Mary at the end of time, 391 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,479 Speaker 1: you know it's a fluke. That was luck too, that 392 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: was luck, so you know. So it's both of those 393 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: statistics are hugely important in winning games, no question about it. 394 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 1: They both say something about how the game win. But 395 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 1: you're right, I think third down conversion says how good 396 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: a team are you, and the turnover ratio says what 397 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 1: happened in that game for that team against that team, 398 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: and that I think, you know, take your pick, yeah, 399 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 1: but I'll take the third down conversion. After reading the stats, 400 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,679 Speaker 1: the Bills fans will like this because I think this 401 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,919 Speaker 1: is a fair argument to make. One could make the 402 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: argument that with Buffalo's improved pass rush, they could create 403 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: more turnovers, and with the offense largely expected to continue 404 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: moving the sticks at a high rate this year, they 405 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 1: could be near the top of the league Steve in 406 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 1: both of these critical categories this season. If they are, 407 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 1: there's no stopping them. Oh my gosh. And then that's 408 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: every team, if you right, that's every team, whatever team 409 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: they But if Buffalo can do that, and you know 410 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: they'll be back at the top of the third down 411 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: conversion Emmanuel Sanders gives them something a third And in 412 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: the Green Bay game, it was pitch and catch and 413 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 1: the ball comes out on time. Josh zings it and 414 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: he's got the ability to hit the hit the big 415 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 1: shot down the field when it's there. Yeah. The thirty 416 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: one yard drive ender to Gabriel Davis puts a fear 417 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: in the defense that they've got to defend every corner 418 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: of the field all the time, and that gives you 419 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 1: lots of space underneath to just dink and dunk to 420 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: Cole Beasley, to Steph Diggs. Whoever, how many times did 421 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: we hear about the Patriots. When you're playing the Patriots, 422 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: you can't make mistakes. You can't turn the ball over 423 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,919 Speaker 1: because they'll make you pay. Why because Tom Brady's converting 424 00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 1: third downs all the way down the dang field and 425 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: putting points on the Before you know it, the game's 426 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 1: out of reach and it's over and you've got another loss. 427 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,439 Speaker 1: The Bills are kind of that team now, or at 428 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: least have the potential to be with their If their 429 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: pass rush comes through the way we all believe it will, 430 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: this team could could arguably be an even better point 431 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: scorer than we saw last season. That'll do it for 432 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 1: this edition of One Bill's Life. Be sure to subscribe 433 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,119 Speaker 1: on whatever podcast platform you use so you know in 434 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,879 Speaker 1: our next episode is available to you, or you can 435 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,439 Speaker 1: watch us and listen to us on the Bills YouTube channel. 436 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: And remember, when you want to crunch the numbers on 437 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: the Bills, we've got your answers for Steve Tasker on 438 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 1: Chris Brown. We'll catch you next week. Everybody,