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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday's edition of the

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Speaker 2: Dally Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault at Sports Talk.

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Speaker 1: Matt to follow me on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: This podcast being brought to you by bet MGM for

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Speaker 1: All right, really bad yesterday.

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Speaker 2: No way to surecote that. That's a four unit lost day.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the worst days I've had in a while.

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Speaker 2: But I took my shot. I'm not gonna you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't feel bad for it. I'll bet those numbers

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Speaker 2: every single time. When it comes to the gift parlay,

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Speaker 2: which we're now two and one on the gift parlay,

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Speaker 2: the over one and a half goals does not come

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Speaker 2: in either. Edmonton's in overtime right now, it's three to three.

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Speaker 2: I thought they'd wind up with four or five. That's

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Speaker 2: why it was four and a half. It looks like

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Speaker 2: the number is going to wind up being four. We'll

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Speaker 2: see what the final score is here, it's three to

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Speaker 2: three between that me in Arizona. I mean how many posts?

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Speaker 2: How many I mean that game was I think that

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Speaker 2: game was six and a half. So I think that

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Speaker 2: game did go over. So here's the thing with hockey

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Speaker 2: over the next couple of weeks, just to kind of

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Speaker 2: understand where we're going in. We're going into the final

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Speaker 2: twelve game stretch for all these teams, for teams that

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Speaker 2: are battling, we're not gonna see like these wide open,

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Speaker 2: crazy games like we did. Okay, we made our money

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Speaker 2: in February and we got to be a little bit

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Speaker 2: more selective now, or I'm going to be a bit

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Speaker 2: more selective now when it comes to what we are

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Speaker 2: doing and what we're betting.

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Speaker 1: It's just.

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Speaker 2: I think teams who are tanking are going to really tank,

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Speaker 2: and the books know it, so they're going to have

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Speaker 2: the numbers be just stupid. And then teams that need

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Speaker 2: to win, like Pitts last night beating Colorado, the Avalanche

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Speaker 2: are fine, they're in Pittsburgh's out right now. They win

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Speaker 2: five to two, so they get a win. That game

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Speaker 2: probably should have stayed under, and it didn't. It goes

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Speaker 2: over for an empty net goal. A five to two

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Speaker 2: win probably should have ended four to two. So got

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit selective here. Okay, I do

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Speaker 2: have two lians because I personally will be involved with

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Speaker 2: some hockey plays because I like it. I'll give you

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Speaker 2: guys a gift parlay and an over first period parlay

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Speaker 2: here in just one of the second just unofficial, just

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Speaker 2: leans if you want. If you need hockey action, you

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Speaker 2: guys are always asking me for hockey action, so I'll

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Speaker 2: give you that. I do have three bets in the

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Speaker 2: NAA tournament for the Sweet sixteen, and then I got

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Speaker 2: a strategy as to how I'm going to play the

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Speaker 2: fourth game, and I'm not gonna do player props. We

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Speaker 2: missed both player props yesterday, and I mean partly. I'm

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Speaker 2: now two and three on the player props. I'll keep

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Speaker 2: on coming back to them from time to time, and

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Speaker 2: I'll I just need to work out the kinks a

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Speaker 2: little bit. I got some questions on the prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat as to like how it's listed and the stats

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Speaker 2: and whatnot. You guys, you got to do me a favor, though,

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Speaker 2: man on the Discord channel, like if I post that

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Speaker 2: the bet is available at BETMGM. Don't ask me where

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Speaker 2: the BET's available, Like, come on, if I say it's

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Speaker 2: available at FanDuel, it's available at fandul. I say it's

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Speaker 2: available at BETMGM, it's available at BETMGM. That was like

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Speaker 2: Abbot in Costello yesterday on the Discord channel with the

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Speaker 2: number of people who were asking, look, there's over thirteen

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Speaker 2: thousand of you on the Discord channel.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I know some of you are going to have different

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Speaker 2: things going on and reading comprehension might be difficult and whatnot,

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Speaker 2: but don't at me over it, okay, Like if you

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Speaker 2: can't find it, you don't need to. I don't know

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Speaker 2: how many notifications I got yesterday and Wednesdays are bad

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Speaker 2: for me. So Wednesday afternoon, my phone's blowing up and

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to do a million things, and I got frustrated.

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Speaker 2: So like, just a heads up, okay, when we're doing

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Speaker 2: the NBA player props, they're going to be posted in

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Speaker 2: the Discord channel, okay, and we'll keep track.

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Speaker 1: I'm now two and three on.

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Speaker 2: It's really two and two because of the first time

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Speaker 2: was just a flyer it with a test balloon, but

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Speaker 2: two and three officially on the NBA player ops. I'll

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Speaker 2: keep on using them because it's part of the prop

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Speaker 2: bet cheat sheet that's available for you guys. If you

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Speaker 2: want to try to win yourself a one year premium

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Speaker 2: free premium upgrade to Betting Pros Premium, how you do

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Speaker 2: that is by subscribing to the Betting Pros YouTube channel

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Speaker 2: comment underneath this video, and when you do, you could

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Speaker 2: win a free upgrade to Betting Pros Premium that's got

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Speaker 2: the picks, the exclusive picks, the top rated player props,

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Speaker 2: which is what I'm using with the prop bet cheat sheets,

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Speaker 2: custom analysis of your betting performances. Betting prone Premium has

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Speaker 2: tools to help you cash more bets. If you don't

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Speaker 2: want to wait for the giveaway, however, you can actually

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Speaker 2: do it yourself and sign up today at Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 2: com slash upgrade and you can start betting smarter, not

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Speaker 2: betting harder on this Okay, So that's where I'm getting

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Speaker 2: the prop bet cheat sheet, okay, is on Betting Pros Premium.

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Speaker 2: And if you I want to take a look at

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Speaker 2: it and you want to investigate it, but if I'm

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Speaker 2: telling you where the numbers are and I'm telling you

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Speaker 2: what I am seeing. I had to screenshot something I'm

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Speaker 2: not supposed to do that. I had to screenshot the

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Speaker 2: graph that I was talking about and what I got

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Speaker 2: the prop off of for Pat Connington because people.

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Speaker 1: Were questioning it. They're like, I don't think your numbers

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Speaker 1: are right.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, I'm like, I'm just showing you what

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Speaker 2: I'm pulling off of the bet you know, the cheap

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Speaker 2: sheet from betting pros. So just a heads up us

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Speaker 2: as to this is going down. I feel like there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of confusing yesterday and it was. It

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Speaker 2: was not a very fun experience for me. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna pause hockey officially. I'm gonna pause basketball officially. And

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Speaker 2: I've got three bets going into the Sweet sixteen. Let

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Speaker 2: me give you guys here in just one second, but

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Speaker 2: here are if you're looking for a gift, Parlay Montreal

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Speaker 2: in Boston. There is no number anywhere on this, okay,

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Speaker 2: So you can substitute Pittsburgh in Dallas and put Boston

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Speaker 2: in Montreal. Montreal is nine and two. We were on

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Speaker 2: them last time for a goal in the first ten minutes.

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Speaker 2: You could probably do that, but I can't give you

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Speaker 2: the numbers So you can either do Boston, Montreal or Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: Dallas gift goal in the first ten minutes combined with

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Speaker 2: Winnipeg and Anaheim. Now you might go, Matt, why are

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Speaker 2: you doing that? So I've told you about this before.

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Speaker 2: There's a guy named psutto Auto on Twitter. He has

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Speaker 2: tremendous numbers and he pulled these numbers for teams playing

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Speaker 2: today for gifts. Montreal is eight and two over the

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Speaker 2: last ten for a goal in the first ten minutes.

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Speaker 2: Boston is six and four. That's a combination of fourteen

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Speaker 2: and six seventy percent clip when these two teams are

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Speaker 2: put together. So you can jump in Montreal if you want.

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Speaker 2: If you want to do Pittsburgh, They're seven and three

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Speaker 2: to a goal in the first ten minutes. Dallas is

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Speaker 2: eight and two to a goal in the first ten minutes,

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Speaker 2: fifteen and five over their last twenty games combined. That's

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Speaker 2: a seventy five percent clip. Okay, Winnipeg and Anaheim take

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Speaker 2: the cake for the day for a gift. Winnipeg eight

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Speaker 2: and two, I'm nine to one. That's seventeen and three combined.

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Speaker 2: That's an eighty five percent success rate for a goal

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Speaker 2: in the first ten minutes. When you combine these two

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Speaker 2: teams over their last twenty games combined, that's a plus

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Speaker 2: one seventy seven parlay at DraftKings. All right, that's a

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Speaker 2: pretty good bet. Don't hate that bet at all. So

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Speaker 2: I can't tell you what the numbers are for Boston Montreal.

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Speaker 2: I don't know because I don't have the gift. But

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Speaker 2: you can put it in there if you would like you.

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Speaker 2: I do have numbers for Boston Montreal for a goal

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Speaker 2: for over one and a half goals in the first period.

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Speaker 2: This is the same bets we made yesterday. I missed

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Speaker 2: on both of them. Just full disclosure. Montreal's ten and

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Speaker 2: zero to over one and a half goals over the

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Speaker 2: last ten games one hundred percent. Every game has gone

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Speaker 2: over one and a half goals. Boston is six and four.

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Speaker 2: That's a sixteen and four clip. If you combine over

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Speaker 2: one and a half goals with Boston Montreal with San

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Speaker 2: Jose and Vancouver, where San Jose is seven and three

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Speaker 2: in Vancouver is seven and three, that's a seventy percent clip.

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Speaker 1: That's a plus one six four play.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so those are the two hockey quick strikeoff options.

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Speaker 2: If you would like to jump in here with that.

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Speaker 2: You don't have to unofficial, but if you're jonesing for

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Speaker 2: hockey and you gotta have a hockey bet, there's two

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Speaker 2: hockey bets for you, you know, Pittsburgh Dallas and Winnipeg

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Speaker 2: and Anaheim plus one seventy seven or Boston Montreal combined

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Speaker 2: with San Jose Vancouver is a plus one sixty four.

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Speaker 2: You can have Boston in both if you would like,

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Speaker 2: But sometimes you don't like, as we what happened tonight.

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Speaker 1: If you use the.

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Speaker 2: Same team twice, same game twice, if it goes nowhere

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Speaker 2: near like you thought, you lose both bets and you

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Speaker 2: lose two units, like I lost two units last night

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Speaker 2: on hockey.

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Speaker 1: So actually I lost three units in hockey last night.

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Speaker 1: So not great.

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Speaker 2: All right, So let's talk about the strategy for Gonzaga

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Speaker 2: and UCLA.

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Speaker 1: All right, we have a plus three hundred.

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Speaker 2: Is it thus three fifty's it's more than three to

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Speaker 2: one return on Gonzaga to win the bracket, Okay, to

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Speaker 2: make the final four.

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Speaker 1: This is gonna be a hell of a test, all right.

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Speaker 1: During the game.

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Speaker 2: At some point during the game, we're gonna get plus

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Speaker 2: money on UCLA. When that happens, I will bet to

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Speaker 2: win at least one point one unit's coming back for

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Speaker 2: as one unit, because I only one unit laid one.

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Speaker 2: I will bet one unit coming back to hedge off

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Speaker 2: the Gonzaga Ucla play. All right, if you did that

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Speaker 2: future and have Gonzaga to win the Western bracket, the

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Speaker 2: Western Regional, which is here in Vegas today, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: wait till the UCLA games gets rolling. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: do a pre game because it's minus one twenty five

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Speaker 2: on the money line for UCLA.

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Speaker 1: I will wait for that to go to plus money.

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Speaker 2: At some point Gonzaga will have a lead and we'll

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Speaker 2: get plus something, and I will bet hopefully like you know,

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Speaker 2: zero point eight point nine something around those lines in

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Speaker 2: order to get that one unit back, maybe make a

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Speaker 2: little bit guaranteed, and then have a no sweat for

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Speaker 2: the rest of the game, and not worry if UCLA

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Speaker 2: not out Gonzaga, because I like Gonzaga to win the game,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not positive kenzagi'sn win the game. Okay, So

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Speaker 2: even though, and this is where it's important you guys

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Speaker 2: to remember this because I'm ice, I'm cold right now,

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Speaker 2: but I give you guys ways to play off different

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Speaker 2: things that do not get categorized and do not get

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Speaker 2: counted on the official record. This is gonna be one

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Speaker 2: of those bets that will not get counted on the

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Speaker 2: official record because it's going to be an in game

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Speaker 2: wager and the number I get could be drastically different

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Speaker 2: than the number you get. Just telling you the strategy

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna use to make sure I don't lose any

219
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Speaker 2: money on Gonzaga for that one unit bet for Gonzaga

220
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Speaker 2: to win the West Regional. All right, So that's how

221
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Speaker 2: I'm going to play this personally. That's how I'm going

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Speaker 2: to remember. We have the Gonzaga to win the West

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Speaker 2: and there was one other bet that we made for

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Speaker 2: to have to look the other bet that we have made.

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Speaker 2: But that's the one bet I can remember on the

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Speaker 2: top of my head, which was three to one.

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Speaker 1: Oh it was an Alabama hold on. I gotta look

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Speaker 1: at that up.

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Speaker 2: See who won the game.

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Speaker 1: Four to three. There you go. Conor McDavid scored the

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Speaker 1: game winner. There you go.

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Speaker 2: I scored four goals like I thought it would be four.

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Speaker 2: You know, well, good people were betting four. You guys

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Speaker 2: took four. That's good. When it was drop down to

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Speaker 2: four for a team total live, you guys took that.

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Speaker 1: That's good. Let me just look real quick here on.

237
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Speaker 2: What I've bet for future wagers here.

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Speaker 1: So, okay, Texas that was the other one. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: that's tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Texas is tomorrow Gonzagas plus three sixty, all right, Texas

241
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Speaker 2: plus three twenty five. I bet Alabama at MIUS one thirty.

242
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Speaker 2: I'm not sure I made that official or not. I'm

243
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Speaker 2: gonna go back and look the record, but I bet

244
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Speaker 2: Alabama to win the to win the East Regional at

245
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Speaker 2: MIUS one thirty after the Sweet sixteen.

246
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Speaker 1: But I don't know if I made that, if I

247
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Speaker 1: made that official or not. But I did bet that, but.

248
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Speaker 2: Plus three sixty on Kinzaga to win this. So that's

249
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Speaker 2: how we're gonna do it. Okay, we're gonna play off

250
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Speaker 2: of that. Make sure we don't lose the unit because

251
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Speaker 2: it's three point six units coming back. If Gonzaga wins,

252
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Speaker 2: I'll hedge off of it. I may even depend on

253
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Speaker 2: who they play in the next round. I may let

254
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Speaker 2: it fly or I may hedge off of it. I

255
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Speaker 2: don't know, but we can guarantee ourselves basically to win

256
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Speaker 2: at least one point six units off the Gonzaga play

257
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Speaker 2: because we can hedge off of it. So that's how

258
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Speaker 2: I'm playing Gonzaga and UCLA.

259
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the other.

260
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Speaker 2: Game here in Las Vegas and then as Yukon up

261
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Speaker 2: against Arkansas, this game's gonna be absolutely wild.

262
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Speaker 1: They're gonna kill each other.

263
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Speaker 2: I mean just they're gonna absolutely beat the living heck

264
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Speaker 2: out of each other. And I cannot wait to watch this.

265
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Speaker 2: Arkansas is fortunate to be in this game. Let's be

266
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Speaker 2: frank here, Okay, they're fortunate to be in this game.

267
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Speaker 2: Yukon is twenty three eleven and one ats. They're eight

268
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Speaker 2: and two over their last ten ats, four and one

269
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Speaker 2: over their last five ATS, and they're just a better

270
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Speaker 2: version of Arkansas. I mean, Hurley's got a really two

271
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 2: twin towers. They're going to be really hard for Arkansas

272
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Speaker 2: to deal with. And I think if you're talking about

273
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Speaker 2: way ways that we see like the difference between Arkansas

274
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Speaker 2: and Yukon, what's the biggest discrepancy. I think the biggest

275
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Speaker 2: discrepancy here is going to be the rebounding for Connecticut.

276
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Speaker 2: And look, I don't like Connecticut, but you have to

277
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Speaker 2: acknowledge what Connecticut has done defensively with their rebounding. I mean,

278
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Speaker 2: they've been really, really good offensive rebounding wise. You know,

279
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Speaker 2: they're phenomenal. They're number two in the country offensive rebounding percentage.

280
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Speaker 2: They are really good on defense stopping offensive rebounds as well.

281
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Speaker 2: Arkansas is not going to get many second chance opportunities here.

282
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Speaker 2: Arkansas is not good at the free throw line. They're

283
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Speaker 2: two hundred and sixty sixth in free throws yukon is seven,

284
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Speaker 2: is forty second in free throw percentage. They are fifty

285
00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:54,640
Speaker 2: first in two point percentage, they're sixty eight in three

286
00:13:54,679 --> 00:14:00,200
Speaker 2: point percentage. They're third for efficiency offensively, and they are

287
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Speaker 2: thirty third in field goal percentage.

288
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Speaker 1: Now, look, Arkansas defense is legitimate.

289
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Speaker 2: Okay, They're gonna be able to turn off their defense

290
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Speaker 2: into offense because they like to turn the basketball over

291
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 2: and they are difficult. They're long, they're physical, they're tough

292
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Speaker 2: to deal with. But Arkansas can go through stretches where

293
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Speaker 2: they don't score. And it happened to them against text

294
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Speaker 2: A and M in the SEC Tournament where they had

295
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,800
Speaker 2: a big lead at half and they blew it because

296
00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,720
Speaker 2: they couldn't score on a better defensive team A and M,

297
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,640
Speaker 2: which is a better defensive team. We were on A

298
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,520
Speaker 2: and M if you remember in the SEC tournament. I

299
00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 2: just think this is a bad matchup here. The number

300
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,119
Speaker 2: move from three and a half to four. I'm comfortable

301
00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 2: it's below five. I don't like laying five, even though

302
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,000
Speaker 2: I am laying five and a half with the next game,

303
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 2: but I like Yukon here. I'm going to lay the

304
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:51,280
Speaker 2: four Yukon minus four up against Arkansas for one point

305
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,720
Speaker 2: one units. This is a seven to fifteen Eastern time start.

306
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 2: This is the first game here in Vegas. Four to

307
00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,840
Speaker 2: fifteen Pacific time starts at Team Mobile Arena. I'm guessing

308
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Speaker 2: it's gonna be more Arkansas fans here than Yukon fans,

309
00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,120
Speaker 2: but I don't know, because Yukon fans are nuts and

310
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Speaker 2: they do travel to tournament games, so they could be

311
00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:11,880
Speaker 2: There could be a lot of Cannankan people in that

312
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 2: building at Team Mobile Arena coming up for that game

313
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Speaker 2: today for that So that's the first game in Vegas.

314
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Speaker 2: Second game is Gonzaga in UCLA. I told you about

315
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Speaker 2: the betting strategy coming up for that. Okay, let's talk

316
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:30,400
Speaker 2: a little bit about which game is I think the game.

317
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Speaker 2: I think the Tennessee game is first.

318
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Speaker 1: Is it?

319
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Speaker 2: Let me see if the Tennessee gams first against Florida Atlantic. No,

320
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 2: it's not, it's the late game. Okay, So the Kansas

321
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Speaker 2: State game is first. Let's do Kansas State and what

322
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Speaker 2: case State's going to be doing here up against Michigan State.

323
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Speaker 1: This is going to be an.

324
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Speaker 2: Awesome basketball game in New York Kansas State. Here are

325
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Speaker 2: some things to take a look at with Kansas State.

326
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,400
Speaker 2: I love this Nole Kid, Noel Kid, this five foot

327
00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,320
Speaker 2: eight guard who is just a mighty mouse. He looks

328
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:02,440
Speaker 2: at He's running the Harlem globetrotters, behind the back, passes, lobs.

329
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:08,200
Speaker 2: He's just absolutely phenomenal to watch. A couple things to

330
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 2: take a look at for Kansas State. A couple numbers

331
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Speaker 2: here in My friend Pete Futech went ahead and uncovered

332
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 2: this one. Kansas State is really good at guarding the three,

333
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 2: like really good at gardening the three. You have the

334
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,400
Speaker 2: number six ranked three point percentage shooting team in the

335
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:29,600
Speaker 2: country in Michigan State versus the fifteenth best defensive three

336
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 2: point team in the country.

337
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 1: That's kind of a wash there.

338
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 2: In terms of a lot of points get scored by

339
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 2: Michigan State, and they ride their defense thirty second in

340
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 2: efficiency for just the defensive efficiency, but you have a

341
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 2: forty sixth offense efficiency in Kansas State. In case State's

342
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:53,280
Speaker 2: defense is seventeenth. Michigan State's offense is thirty seventh. Okay,

343
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,880
Speaker 2: so that's important. Guarding of three is huge. You're not

344
00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,360
Speaker 2: going to allow a lot of open low and a

345
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 2: lot of open shots and huge number. The k State

346
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:11,480
Speaker 2: Wildcats are twenty and one when they allow seventy points

347
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 2: or fewer. In eighteen and oh when they allow sixty

348
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 2: nine points or less. Okay, Michigan State is ten and

349
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,959
Speaker 2: oh this year when they hold teams to sixty points

350
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,200
Speaker 2: or less, they're eleven and twelve when they don't. K

351
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,119
Speaker 2: State has scored fewer than sixty points just one time

352
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,679
Speaker 2: this entire season. That's pretty wild. The only time they

353
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 2: didn't score held under sixty points.

354
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,679
Speaker 1: Was against.

355
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,360
Speaker 2: It's not easy to find that game, okay, against which

356
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 2: Dall State fifty five point fifty win at home against

357
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,719
Speaker 2: wich Just State. So the only time KSE State all

358
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 2: year was held blow sixty points sixty one they scored

359
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 2: I think that's their low sixty one. Everything else is

360
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 2: sixty one or higher. Yeah, a sixty one or higher

361
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 2: for Kansas State. I think kase State's going to be

362
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 2: able to score. I think Kayse State's going to be

363
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 2: able to get to the boards. I think Kase State's

364
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,120
Speaker 2: gonna be able to run out when they need to,

365
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 2: and I think they guard the outside shooting. For Michigan State,

366
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 2: I know Tomaso is really impressive, but this Michigan State

367
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,200
Speaker 2: team has gone through lulls this year. This Michigan State

368
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 2: team has lost games that you've been like, wait a minute, really,

369
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 2: who did you lose to? Okay, they lost two teams

370
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 2: that lost a Notre Dame this year. I mean, come

371
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 2: off of it. They played some really tough teams.

372
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 1: Okay.

373
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 2: They lost to Ohio State though in the Big Ten Tournament,

374
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,720
Speaker 2: which is I mean, I know they got hot in

375
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:37,639
Speaker 2: the Big Ten Tournament, but eh lost to Illinois, lost

376
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 2: to Northwestern. Other losses are Gonzaga, Alabama, nothing wrong with that,

377
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:47,679
Speaker 2: Purdue twice, Rutgers good decent teams. All the Rutgers is

378
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:48,120
Speaker 2: in the field.

379
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 1: Iowa.

380
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 2: That was that crazy collapse game that they blew on

381
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 2: the road at Iowa that won twelve one oh six game.

382
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: I like Kansas State plus one and a half. Give

383
00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,400
Speaker 2: me the Wildcats plus one and a half for one

384
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 2: point one units. I think that they win. Take the

385
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 2: money line if you want. I'm gonna take the one

386
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 2: point one units just to be safe, or they'll ply

387
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 2: the one and a half points just to be safe.

388
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 2: K State plus one and a half up against Michigan State.

389
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 2: And then the final game today Tennessee taking on Florida Atlantic.

390
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 2: This is the number that I absolutely hate laying. Okay,

391
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 2: five and a half sucks four and a half, five

392
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,199
Speaker 2: five and a half, I absolutely hate it. But I

393
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 2: have Tennessee in the final four. And I have been

394
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,120
Speaker 2: telling everybody that this is a tournament based on defense.

395
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 2: In Florida Atlantic is a defensive team, and I think

396
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 2: they're going to play right into the hands here of Tennessee.

397
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 2: And I think Tennessee's defense is going to be all.

398
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 2: I mean, Tennessee was able to shut down Duke. Duke

399
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 2: is way more talented than Florida Atlantic. Okay, Like, let's

400
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 2: just be honest here in terms of physicality, in terms

401
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 2: of size, in terms of athletic ability, and Tennessee was

402
00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 2: incredible in that game against them, shutting them down. So like,

403
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,399
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Florida Atlantic and I'm going, Okay, I

404
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: got them wrong against Miami.

405
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 1: I've been fading these guys.

406
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 2: Sometimes i just don't see teams properly, and this could

407
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 2: very well be the case where I'm just totally lost

408
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 2: on Florida Atlantic and I don't know what I'm seeing.

409
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm talking about here.

410
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 2: Kempom has this as a four point win for Tennessee,

411
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 2: so I'm laying more points than what kempom thinks it

412
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 2: should be. This is the number one efficient defense in

413
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 2: the entire country in Tennessee. They're top sixty in offense,

414
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 2: but they're number one in defense. Fau's offense is extremely good,

415
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,360
Speaker 2: twenty eighth. Okay, they're twenty fifth in effective field goal percentage.

416
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 2: Tennessee's defense is third. Fau's defense effective field goal percentage

417
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,959
Speaker 2: is fifteenth. Big there, Fau's defense is thirty third, And

418
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 2: you might go, well, man, Matt, they're gonna get after

419
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,679
Speaker 2: it again. It just comes down to who they've played. Like,

420
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 2: I just can't get over this. They're playing North Texas

421
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,159
Speaker 2: and Charlotte in Florida Gulf Coast, not that version of

422
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 2: Dunk City, Albany, Detroit, Mercy.

423
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 1: Bryant, utep Rice.

424
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not trying to throw total shade, even

425
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 2: though I am throwing total shade on the Owls. I

426
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: just think when you get to the sweet sixteen, when

427
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 2: you change venues. I've seen this before. I saw it

428
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 2: happen to Northern Iowa. I was there against Bruce Pearl

429
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: in Tennessee when Northern Iowa knocked out the number one

430
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 2: seed in the whole damn tournament and they knocked out

431
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: Kansas with the Ali farokmanesh three in Oklahoma City, the No, No, No,

432
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 2: Yes three. I was their court side. I watched Jos

433
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,959
Speaker 2: covering Northern Iowa, and then Northern Iowa went to a

434
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: new venue and they couldn't do anything against Tennessee's defense

435
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: in Bruce Pearl. Nothing Now, different coach, obviously, different time.

436
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 2: Rick Barnes has had his major problems when it comes

437
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: to the NSAA tournament. But I can't get this out

438
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 2: of my head that Tennessee's out of the SEC. I

439
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,199
Speaker 2: have them in the final four and they've got a

440
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:52,120
Speaker 2: really easy game.

441
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 1: Okay.

442
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 2: I can't get this out of my head, that Tennessee

443
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 2: is gonna kill Fau, and maybe I'm gonna be way

444
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 2: wrong and fade all these bets if you'd like. I

445
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: just can't get that out of my head. That Tennessee

446
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: is gonna wail on Fau, and Fau is gonna score like,

447
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, fifty five points in this game, and

448
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 2: they're gonna give up seventy. It's gonna be a seventy

449
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 2: to fifty five final and Tennessee is gonna walk to

450
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 2: the Elite eight. And Rick Barnes is gonna take this

451
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: team to the elite I know they don't have their

452
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: best point guard, and Zigler would be awesome to have, Okay,

453
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: but I just look at this draw and I'm thinking, man,

454
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: it's setting up perfectly for Tennessee to make the Final four.

455
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: And it's the one bet I didn't make to make

456
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,360
Speaker 2: the final four. But I'm gonna bet this and lay

457
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 2: the five and.

458
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 1: A half points.

459
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 2: I very well might be kicking and screaming we could

460
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 2: have again Zagat type of ending last second getting burned

461
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: very possible, But I'm gonna lay the five and a

462
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: half points with Tennessee here, Tennessee mice five and a half.

463
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 2: All right, three bets officially going here today. No NBA

464
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 2: player props today. We're going Yukon minus four, Tennessee minus

465
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 2: five and a half, Kansas State plus one one and

466
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: a half. Go right ahead and fade those bets if

467
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 2: you would like. With how ice cold? I'm i am,

468
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: but look, it's a sweet sixteen. I want to bet

469
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: college basketball. I feel it will be mad at myself

470
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: if I wasn't making plays officially on the NSAA tournament,

471
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 2: in particular because the games are here. Two of them

472
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 2: are here in Las Vegas tonight for the West Regional. Again,

473
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: you got the gift parlay with Pittsburgh, Dallas and Winnipeg

474
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: Anaheim for plus one seventy seven. If you want it,

475
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,239
Speaker 2: you can want hockey or Boston Montreal combined with San

476
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 2: Jose and Vancouver for a plus one sixty four parlay.

477
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: If you want to get.

478
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,239
Speaker 2: Involved with that, you can do that as well, but

479
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 2: those are unofficial for us.

480
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 1: On a hockey Thursday, mis Matt Parol. Follow me on

481
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

482
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 2: Each simmer morning, it is the Diligence Podcast being brought

483
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 2: to you by BETAMGM