Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros College
Speaker 1: Football look Ahead Show four Week seven. We're already halfway
Speaker 1: through the college football season here and I'm Tom Biolan.
Speaker 1: As always, I'm joined by none other than the God
Speaker 1: of Thunder himself, Thornstrom, because we are going to be
Speaker 1: taking a look at his look aheadlines and where he
Speaker 1: is thinking for some of the biggest games on this
Speaker 1: week's college football slate. Or I want to extend my
Speaker 1: condolences as the show begins here. We were all pulling
Speaker 1: for Kansas there at the end. They kept it close,
Speaker 1: ended up with the push against the spread. But you
Speaker 1: know that's little condolence for for what happened this week
Speaker 1: against TCU.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's October ninth, and this is the first show
Speaker 2: that we've done together. We're either Kansas or Syracuse has
Speaker 2: a loss, so I mean that's a huge win I suppose,
Speaker 2: and it was a valiant effort for Kansas, so I
Speaker 2: definitely can't be disappointed at all. And it's good to
Speaker 2: be with you, Thomas.
Speaker 1: That bean kid, I'll tell you he looked good. I
Speaker 1: credit Kansas for not turtling when they went to their
Speaker 1: backup quarterback. They stayed aggressive and he made a lot
Speaker 1: of the plays he needed to.
Speaker 2: It's a great point that kid can play. And we'll
Speaker 2: get to this when we talk about Kansas Oklahoma. But
Speaker 2: you can't downgrade Kansas a lot if their starting quarterback
Speaker 2: is out because Jason Bean is a player. That kid
Speaker 2: can absolutely play.
Speaker 1: Well, let's get right in with that game, because Kansas
Speaker 1: is taking on Oklahoma this week. They are seven point
Speaker 1: dogs in Oklahoma, and I mean, you know, can't Oklahoma
Speaker 1: got absolutely bush whacked by Texas this week. Can Kansas
Speaker 1: do it?
Speaker 2: Well? Yeah, I mean yes, They're a live dog. Absolutely.
Speaker 2: The enormous part of this handicap has to do with
Speaker 2: the quarterback statuses on both sides. Obviously, is Dylan Gabriel
Speaker 2: going to play on the Oklahoma Homa side? Is Jalen
Speaker 2: Dan Only Daniel's going to play on the Kansas side
Speaker 2: with Gabriel. There's been the thing about Oklahoma used to
Speaker 2: have the two week mandatory sit out for the concussions
Speaker 2: if it was a confirmed concussion diagnosis. I actually don't
Speaker 2: know under the Venables regime if that's still in place.
Speaker 2: If it is, like you know, I didn't stay in
Speaker 2: a holiday express last night. But I'm pretty sure that
Speaker 2: the Gabriel has a confirmed concussion diagnosis, so you would
Speaker 2: think that that would mean that he would have to
Speaker 2: sit out, But again I'm not sure if that protocol
Speaker 2: is still in place under Venables, so stay tuned on
Speaker 2: that one. And then with Daniels, he suffered the injury
Speaker 2: in their last game when against CCU when he was
Speaker 2: scrambling around at the right around the sideline and he
Speaker 2: takes a sack and his right shoulder was driven into
Speaker 2: the ground, which typically is a pretty ominous injury. Jason Bean,
Speaker 2: like I was just mentioning, came in and played absolutely awesome.
Speaker 2: Was dropping dimes everywhere. And that was a case who
Speaker 2: started earlier in his career at North Texas and was
Speaker 2: also a track star as a prep in Texas. Not
Speaker 2: only does he have a good arm, he is also
Speaker 2: an awesome athlete. Like I was sort of teasing earlier
Speaker 2: when we did the intros, I don't think you downgrade
Speaker 2: Kansas a whole heck of a lot if Daniels is out,
Speaker 2: if Gabriel is out, like as we've seen, you downgrade
Speaker 2: Oklahoma quite a bit. Like you downgrade Oklahoma a touchdown
Speaker 2: or more of if Gabriel is out, if Daniels is out,
Speaker 2: maybe a point on the Kansas side. So you have
Speaker 2: to watch that that very closely, just in a vacuum.
Speaker 2: My line on that game is Oklahoma minus six point
Speaker 2: four live right now it's Oklahoma minus seven, So you know,
Speaker 2: I'm pretty close to the Vegas line, just showing that
Speaker 2: the smallest amount of value on Kansas. But again, you
Speaker 2: got to watch that very closely. Another thing I'll say
Speaker 2: is Oklahoma. I mentioned this last week in some of
Speaker 2: the episodes that we did, they have perilous depth issues
Speaker 2: at linebacker. Right now they are down to four active,
Speaker 2: healthy scholarship linebackers. That's another thing you have to watch
Speaker 2: very closely. Regardless of what Kansas is quarterback situation, whether
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Bean or Daniels, Kansas does all the
Speaker 2: motion stuff, gets people out moving around motion and and
Speaker 2: then moves the quarterbacks out, uh, you know on the
Speaker 2: bootlegs and stuff like that. Uh. They put the opposing
Speaker 2: linebackers into conflict on every single play and and and
Speaker 2: and venables. Uh. Going back to his Clemsed days, ask
Speaker 2: so much of his linebackers the responsibility because he does
Speaker 2: all these replacer, uh concepts where in terms of the
Speaker 2: blitzing and the coverage where where he'll blitz and then
Speaker 2: he has, uh, you know, ask a different defender to
Speaker 2: replace that person in in in the the alignment, which again,
Speaker 2: you know, it asks a lot of the linebackers because
Speaker 2: you have to, you know, do different things. You have
Speaker 2: to put on different hats. Not only are your linebacker
Speaker 2: and a different play you might ask to be a rusher,
Speaker 2: you might ask to be you know, you know, have
Speaker 2: have safety responsibility.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of different roles that have to go
Speaker 1: on here for these linebackers, and they haven't shown so
Speaker 1: far that they've been able to handle it. How much
Speaker 1: longer do you think Venables really has especially if Kansas
Speaker 1: pulls it off and manages to win this game, especially
Speaker 1: with Jason Bean at quarterback that's own foreign conference play
Speaker 1: for Oklahoma. I can't imagine Venables is going to be
Speaker 1: the most popular guy in town much longer.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I mean he's he's I mean, he's gonna
Speaker 2: make it at least through the end of next year.
Speaker 2: I mean, just because he's he's new, you're gonna give
Speaker 2: him a little bit of leash. But this is not
Speaker 2: a good start for Brent Vannaballs, you know, and like
Speaker 2: when Lincoln left and you hired Venables, there's all the
Speaker 2: Oklahoma fans being like, oh, you know, who cares that
Speaker 2: Lincoln left? You know, we upgraded a coach, and those
Speaker 2: folks are very quiet right now. This has been an
Speaker 2: absolutely horrible start for Venables. I would argue right now
Speaker 2: that Oklahoma might be the second worst team in the
Speaker 2: Big Twelve, and it I mean, they are moving in
Speaker 2: on being the worst team in the Big twelve. I
Speaker 2: think the worst team in the Big Twelve right now
Speaker 2: is West Virginia and it is becoming arguable between them
Speaker 2: and West Virginia. Without Dylan Gabriel, Oklahoma probably is the
Speaker 2: worst team in the Big twelve. This again, the status
Speaker 2: of Dylan Gabriel is absolutely crucial for this game. If
Speaker 2: Dylan Gabriel doesn't play, Kansas is gonna beat Oklahoma. I'm
Speaker 2: just telling you right now, So you need to watch
Speaker 2: that status very very closely. Getting the seven points, I mean,
Speaker 2: like again, watch it closely. You might just want to
Speaker 2: take it, like, you know, if you can see that
Speaker 2: out there in the marketplace, because Kansas is live even
Speaker 2: playing Gabriel, But like, if Gabriel's out that it's a
Speaker 2: gift getting seven points with Kansas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm tempted to take that line now and
Speaker 1: then hope because would you say that this line with
Speaker 1: Gabriel playing should be around seven?
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, so it's a fair line. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So then for me right now, I'm looking to take
Speaker 1: Kansas and get some action on this game early and
Speaker 1: then I mean, you don't want to hope that someone's injured, obviously,
Speaker 1: and these are college kids, we want them to be okay.
Speaker 1: But if you're gonna take the Kansas, this is probably
Speaker 1: the best time that you're gonna want to do it.
Speaker 1: But how about Penn State versus Michigan. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: a classic Big ten battle here. I personally think Penn
Speaker 1: State's a little bit overrated. I don't trust this team ever,
Speaker 1: and that's probably jading my bias a little bit here.
Speaker 1: But Michigan is getting just seven points in this game
Speaker 1: in the Big House, that line feels wrong to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it feels a little bit short to
Speaker 2: me too. It was funny. I was watching the Viking
Speaker 2: game earlier with the Michigan alum and he had asked
Speaker 2: me what I thought that spread would be, and I
Speaker 2: was higher when I guessed it, then then it turned
Speaker 2: out to be So I'm definitely with you on that.
Speaker 2: Michigan has impressed me quite a bit this year, and
Speaker 2: and Penn State they've just been you know, they've they've
Speaker 2: you know, it's just been kind of man. I mean,
Speaker 2: like the last and they are coming off of a
Speaker 2: buy so maybe you know, like there's an idea that
Speaker 2: they're going to come in rest it or whatever. But
Speaker 2: like the last time that we saw them, they were
Speaker 2: beating Northwestern by ten points at home, you know, sort
Speaker 2: of a thing that the offense isn't terribly explosive, they
Speaker 2: can't take the top off of the defense. The rushing
Speaker 2: attack has gotten marginally better, the running back room has
Speaker 2: gotten marginally better, the offensive line has gotten marginally better.
Speaker 2: But it doesn't neither of them scare you, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, because I mean where they were coming from
Speaker 2: was all really really bad. It's just not a team
Speaker 2: that that terrifies me. And and Michigan is still a
Speaker 2: playoff contender. So yeah, I mean for me, that play
Speaker 2: be Michigan or nothing.
Speaker 1: Who do you trust over Michigan or Ohio State. I mean,
Speaker 1: I know it's the classic rivalry there, but is Michigan
Speaker 1: really at that same level.
Speaker 2: Michigan's not at Ohio State's level. For if it was
Speaker 2: that game on a neutral for me, it would depend
Speaker 2: on what the line is. But it's not to the
Speaker 2: degree where I would disqualify Michigan. They're still both at
Speaker 2: the near levels where they were at recently. And obviously
Speaker 2: we saw what I mean like, it's how would I
Speaker 2: put it? Michigan still has the puncher's chance and last
Speaker 2: time Hassan Haskins knocked out Ohio State, so it's it's
Speaker 2: it's still that sort of situation where you absolutely wouldn't
Speaker 2: discount Michigan and Michigan State. Michigan could absolutely still win.
Speaker 1: How about Auburn versus Ole Miss? Here should be an
Speaker 1: interesting game? Be his Ole Miss is at least the
Speaker 1: ninth ranked team in the nation right now. Be interesting
Speaker 1: is not quite the word because Auburn's disappointed this year.
Speaker 1: But should All Miss be a sixteen point favorite in
Speaker 1: this SEC showdown?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. My line on it is
Speaker 2: Old Miss minus fifteen, uh and you know, and it
Speaker 2: being up to six, I think that's a fair tax
Speaker 2: because of the the Brian Harson thing. You know, every
Speaker 2: single week, I'm waiting for Auburn to quit on him,
Speaker 2: and for Auburn then to to fire Brian Harson and
Speaker 2: and and we'll see when that ends up happening. But
Speaker 2: I do think it's fair. And and mister b you
Speaker 2: know that they've looked pretty good, you know, and you know,
Speaker 2: you know last week, uh they you know, early on
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt was playing with him, but then uh, ole Miss
Speaker 2: turned it on at the end, and then Lane Kiffin
Speaker 2: the the very humorous thing at the end of that
Speaker 2: game of very clearly overtly going for the cover and
Speaker 2: then getting it. Uh you know, I I think I
Speaker 2: would lean towards ole Miss in that game. And I
Speaker 2: definitely would not be back in Auburn anytime soon.
Speaker 1: Now, how about let's talk about him. We already talked
Speaker 1: about Oklahoma, but Texas now takes on Iowa State here
Speaker 1: as fourteen point favorites for the question that we all
Speaker 1: want to know, is Texas back?
Speaker 2: Texas? Texas getting closer and closer to being back for sure,
Speaker 2: But like last week, you know, I think that in
Speaker 2: the court of public opinion, they're they're probably going to
Speaker 2: be inflated a bit because of last week's result. Oklahoma
Speaker 2: obviously is way down and circumstantially they cut Oklahoma in
Speaker 2: an all time spot last week without Gabriel, with where
Speaker 2: the linebacker spot is, and and and some of the
Speaker 2: different positions. Like I was I was mentioning before, but
Speaker 2: you know, they got Texas had gotten back Quinn Viewers,
Speaker 2: and they were back at full strength. But this Texas
Speaker 2: team is really good. It's the best incarnation of Texas
Speaker 2: that we've seen for the past few years. This Texas
Speaker 2: team is good. Is it back to the you know,
Speaker 2: the to the degree that it's a playoff contender? I'm
Speaker 2: not sure about that, but they are pretty good. Quinn
Speaker 2: Ewers is for real and b Jon Robinson is the
Speaker 2: best running back in America. So like, you do have
Speaker 2: that stuff, and they can play defense as well, like
Speaker 2: we saw that against Alabama. I'm not gonna say we
Speaker 2: saw that against Oklahoma because I don't think that Oklahoma
Speaker 2: offense run by Davis Bevel and whatnot. I don't think
Speaker 2: they could have scored on u Ellman Roe. But you know,
Speaker 2: they're back to a reasonable degree. Iowa State they're going
Speaker 2: to require Texas to play a different kind of a game.
Speaker 2: Iowa State, They're going they drag every team out into
Speaker 2: deep waters. They don't want to play a football game.
Speaker 2: They want to do a rock fight every every different
Speaker 2: team that they play, it's a rock fight. Iowa, Iowa
Speaker 2: plays rock fights with everybody. So but Kansas State was
Speaker 2: a rock fight every single you know team. So so
Speaker 2: they're not going to do a shootout with Texas. If
Speaker 2: Texas thinks they're going to do a shootout with Iowa State,
Speaker 2: they're gonna be sadly mistaken. This is this is gonna
Speaker 2: be a low scoring kind of a game, a methodical game.
Speaker 2: I would be looking more at the under I think,
Speaker 2: than than the side of this one. And I think
Speaker 2: probably Iowa State is more of a live dog than
Speaker 2: this line is going to be, indicating my numbers would
Speaker 2: are more bullish on Texas than I would be personally,
Speaker 2: just because I respect Iowa State more of what I
Speaker 2: think the game script and the game flow of this
Speaker 2: game could be. I think Iowa State has a shot
Speaker 2: to ambush Texas in this game, particularly for Texas coming
Speaker 2: off of that exhilarating win over Oklahoma and a week
Speaker 2: of Texas is back, people pumping their tires off of
Speaker 2: just annihilating Oklahoma.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're gonna start feeling that hype now, and that's
Speaker 1: when you can really start a team. And iwa was
Speaker 1: State like they've done it before. They they've gone into
Speaker 1: people's houses and been a cyclone before and taking out
Speaker 1: some of these teams. I think this could be another spot.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 2: I think so? Yeah, I mean this is this is
Speaker 2: the classic Texas letdown spot. It's the classic Iowa State
Speaker 2: ambush spot. Just sort of the confluence of both lining up.
Speaker 2: I like, for me, like I think I would be
Speaker 2: looking to maybe nibble on the Iowa State both the
Speaker 2: spread and maybe even the money line. I mean, I
Speaker 2: feel like people are gonna be betting on Texas all week,
Speaker 2: so I don't even think you need to bet on
Speaker 2: Iowa State early. The line's uh Texas mind is fourteen,
Speaker 2: but like, like I feel like this thing's probably gonna
Speaker 2: toggle up over that. So you know, for me, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna be waiting until it gets to fourteen and a
Speaker 2: half before you know, I look to fire the bullet.
Speaker 2: But That's what I'm gonna be looking for in that one.
Speaker 1: Now, let's talk about some really big games this week,
Speaker 1: and you know, it doesn't get bigger than this one.
Speaker 1: Eighteen versus fifteen, you know what I'm talking about. Here,
Speaker 1: we got syracusan and SEE State going at it in
Speaker 1: the Loud House, the JMA Wireless Dole, as it has
Speaker 1: always been known. Where are you going in this one?
Speaker 1: Because right now Syracuse favored by four and a half
Speaker 1: over NC State. I was not expecting this. I feel
Speaker 1: like there's a lot being considered with the fact that
Speaker 1: Syracuse had that incredible win over Wagner, which isn't something
Speaker 1: to often say about an opponent of that caliber. But
Speaker 1: anytime that you get the other team to say, hey,
Speaker 1: can we shot the quarters to ten minutes for the
Speaker 1: second half, you're doing something right. But NC State, even
Speaker 1: coming off that that loss to Clemson and then that
Speaker 1: game against Florida State that didn't quite go how they
Speaker 1: wanted it to, they're still a good team.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I feel like people are gonna look at
Speaker 2: this and you know, like when when they're looking down
Speaker 2: the betting card and they're they're gonna see Syracuse favored
Speaker 2: by you know, four or whatever against NC State an
Speaker 2: NT State team that's coming off of Syracuse favored by
Speaker 2: four and a half, and NC State team, a five
Speaker 2: and one NC State team coming off of a two
Speaker 2: point win over Florida State, and they're gonna be scratching
Speaker 2: their heads, like Syracuse favor by four and a half
Speaker 2: over NC State. The context that people need to keep
Speaker 2: in mind not necessarily the Syracuse win over Wagner, but
Speaker 2: you know, but maybe maybe a little bit. But it's
Speaker 2: it's more the Devin Leary injured injury for for NC State.
Speaker 2: In an addition to that, NC State's wide receiver, to Carter,
Speaker 2: he got injured in the game against Florida State, and
Speaker 2: and NC State's running back got injured in that game.
Speaker 2: So NC State is dealing with with several injuries right now.
Speaker 2: We're recording this on Sunday night. We'll have to see
Speaker 2: NC State's injury report in the coming days to see
Speaker 2: who's in who's out. But that's a team that's dealing
Speaker 2: with a rash of injuries right now. Want to see
Speaker 2: on Saturday, like what team they end up trotting out,
Speaker 2: but that could be a seriously under manned team heading
Speaker 2: into Syracuse. Syracuse is coming off of a bye. They're
Speaker 2: in the Wagner game, so basically two buys, so they
Speaker 2: are fresh as a daisy going up against a team
Speaker 2: that is badly beat up and seriously decimated. So it's
Speaker 2: you're looking at it. You know what was that book
Speaker 2: tail of two city sort of a thing? Syracuse is
Speaker 2: in a very very advantageous situation to remain undefeated, which
Speaker 2: which explains everything you need to know about that line.
Speaker 2: If both of these teams were at full strength on
Speaker 2: a neutral field, this line might be totally flipped. But
Speaker 2: that is not what this scenario is. It's Syracuse at
Speaker 2: home in the situation that we discussed, and the line
Speaker 2: is what it is.
Speaker 1: Well, Thor, I'm excited, I'm scared. I'm probably not gonna
Speaker 1: bet this game because I've already got too much riding
Speaker 1: on it from an emotional standpoint, But oh man, this
Speaker 1: would be a sweet one to see. Now. I hate
Speaker 1: to bring it back up here, but we had to
Speaker 1: talk about TCU because they're gonna be an interesting one
Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State. Here they're laying three and a half
Speaker 1: at home, but Oklahoma State has been good so far
Speaker 1: this season. Where are you going in this one? Are
Speaker 1: you riding with the horn Frogs, or are you thinking
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma State's gonna get them in this spot after
Speaker 1: that big game that they just had.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you wonder in this one is is TCU? Like
Speaker 2: when is TCU gonna? Is TCU gonna have a letdown spot? Right? Like?
Speaker 2: Like TCU just keeps the bar keeps raising for them.
Speaker 2: It was a team over the summer that I was
Speaker 2: harping on over and over again that I was extremely
Speaker 2: high on, and they keep even going over my bar.
Speaker 2: But again, like is there a letdown spot coming for them?
Speaker 2: Like last week they go into Lawrence, they they on
Speaker 2: college game Day, they beat an undefeated team on the road.
Speaker 2: You know, now they're coming back home. But like you know,
Speaker 2: you know a lot of times you'd be like, is
Speaker 2: this gonna be a letdown spot after you just went
Speaker 2: in that electric atmosphere? But like you know, I mean,
Speaker 2: like they haven't had a letdown spot. Yeah, they've had
Speaker 2: other big wins you know this year and and and
Speaker 2: haven't had it yet. And then meanwhile for Olklahoma State,
Speaker 2: I mean they've also been a team that that has
Speaker 2: had several big wins this year and they've just kept
Speaker 2: the momentum going. So so it's it's it's it's another
Speaker 2: one of these two teams that have just kept building
Speaker 2: and building and building. Oklahoma State for me, is sort
Speaker 2: of the opposite tc For me, Uh, TCU is a
Speaker 2: team that I've been higher on than the market throughout
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State, I've been wrong about the entire time. So
Speaker 2: I've been you know, I'm pumping my own tires about
Speaker 2: my TCU. Take. I got to go to the opposite. I've
Speaker 2: been wrong about Oklahoma State. Like I thought Oklahoma State
Speaker 2: was was was not going to be. I thought they
Speaker 2: were gonna be way down this year because they had
Speaker 2: lost so many guys on defense, and I and and
Speaker 2: I didn't trust Spencer Petross so last year that they
Speaker 2: were you know, totally led by the foot of their
Speaker 2: their dominant defense, and they had lost Malcolm Rodriguez and
Speaker 2: all these different guys on their defense, and I didn't
Speaker 2: I didn't think that spent Petross could do it. And
Speaker 2: Spencer Petross has gotten way better. Like like I'm I'm
Speaker 2: shocked when I watch Spencer Petross this year. He has
Speaker 2: actually become like a solid singular quarterback. And and this
Speaker 2: year that they don't have like Jalen Warren, for instance,
Speaker 2: on offense, like to you know, to give all the
Speaker 2: usage to and Spencer Spencer Sanders is doing it. He
Speaker 2: hadn't even had like uh bray like that, like uh
Speaker 2: the receiver been been injured and stuff like that, and
Speaker 2: and and Sanders still doing it. And the defense been
Speaker 2: a little bit better than than I've thought it was
Speaker 2: gonna be. And that's a credit to the coaching staff
Speaker 2: as well. This one is tough for me because my
Speaker 2: line is is is pretty close. I actually give the
Speaker 2: the the slight line value to Oklahoma State, at least
Speaker 2: where the line is right now. My line in this
Speaker 2: game is TCU minus one point nine. It's it's a
Speaker 2: game that I'm gonna be digging into this week, you know,
Speaker 2: and and and try to gauge short of where both
Speaker 2: teams heads. A rat but a very interesting game on
Speaker 2: Saturday afternoon in the Big twelve.
Speaker 1: Now, a game that I want to talk about next.
Speaker 1: It's not two ranked teams, but certainly two brand names
Speaker 1: here in Florida versus LSU Florida. They're not doing too
Speaker 1: badly here. They lost to Kentucky and Eastern Washington. Not
Speaker 1: Eastern Washington. I'm looking at the wrong game. They lost
Speaker 1: to Kentucky and Tennessee, they beat Eastern Washington, and they're
Speaker 1: coming off the win against Missou this week here and
Speaker 1: going up against LSU and this one. This a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago, you'd be talking about a potential one
Speaker 1: to two matchup right here in this game, they're gay,
Speaker 1: They're laying two and a half points against the Tigers
Speaker 1: in this spot. And is Florida still good despite the
Speaker 1: fact that they're obviously not ranked at this point. They've
Speaker 1: had those two top twenty five losses. They did beat
Speaker 1: Utah in the first week. What's your opinion on this
Speaker 1: Gators team.
Speaker 2: I'm fading Florida. This is one where I'm sitting dead
Speaker 2: red on LSU. I think the line is, well, I'll
Speaker 2: just put it this way. My numbers favorite LSU, and
Speaker 2: I think in the marketplace, LSU might be favored right
Speaker 2: now had last week, had the result not been what
Speaker 2: it was with LSU. They ended up getting smoke lash
Speaker 2: last week, and it is what it is. I think
Speaker 2: Tennessee spanked him at home the LSU last forty to thirteen.
Speaker 2: But I still think that LSU is a solid team
Speaker 2: and Florida's result wasn't much more impressive. They barely got
Speaker 2: by Missouri at home. I don't like that Florida team.
Speaker 2: I don't most people watch Anthony Richardson in that opener
Speaker 2: put on the Superman Cape against Utah. He's reverted back
Speaker 2: to you know what he was previously for the you
Speaker 2: know ever since then, basically of just being the super
Speaker 2: duper inconsistent player that has placement issues, decision making issues,
Speaker 2: I mean like pocket awareness issues that the whole gamut.
Speaker 2: He certainly you know, still has the ceiling and everything
Speaker 2: like that. He certainly flashes, but like again, you still
Speaker 2: have the vacillation with him. I just don't trust that team.
Speaker 2: I don't And with LSU, I trust them marginally more,
Speaker 2: I guess is the way that I would say that
Speaker 2: I like them a bit more and I think that
Speaker 2: they match up better in this game, and so I'm
Speaker 2: gonna take LSU in that one, even though that they're
Speaker 2: on the road. You know.
Speaker 1: Speaking of another team that might be a tad overrated,
Speaker 1: I'm just surprised. James Madison is the first season at
Speaker 1: this level and they're already ranked twenty fifth in the nation.
Speaker 1: That seems just a tad insane to me, they're going
Speaker 1: up against Georgia Southern is ten and a half point
Speaker 1: road favorites here. Do you think this line is what
Speaker 1: it should be or are people just buying into the
Speaker 1: hype of this team that is, I mean, it's a
Speaker 1: great story, but are they actually good enough to be
Speaker 1: a top twenty five team?
Speaker 2: That line's didn't played it. My line on that game
Speaker 2: is James Madison minus seven point two. Georgia Southern's legit, uh,
Speaker 2: which is crazy for me to say in the first
Speaker 2: year of of Clay held and they're taking over that
Speaker 2: triple option roster, but they can actually play. And and
Speaker 2: speaking to that for a second, they're Chorgia Southern is
Speaker 2: throwing the ball even more than Mississippi State is, which
Speaker 2: which is just bizarre. And they're they're they're they're doing
Speaker 2: it just as well. But that's that's a story for
Speaker 2: another time. James Madison is is good. They're really good.
Speaker 2: They've they've they played awesome and they've played way better
Speaker 2: than than I than I thought they would. But again,
Speaker 2: like I think the market now is is taking it
Speaker 2: a bit too far. And and I think you know,
Speaker 2: for the sports books, at a certain point you have
Speaker 2: to start uh uh charging the tax on them because
Speaker 2: the sportsbooks are starting to get nicked on James Madison.
Speaker 2: So you have to you have to start incentivizing people
Speaker 2: to bet on the other side because you've lost money
Speaker 2: in some of the recent weeks on the James Madison
Speaker 2: thing because they're covering every week. So again you have
Speaker 2: to push people to the other side. I mean, this
Speaker 2: happens when you have a team that's covering every single week.
Speaker 2: But I think that's what explains the discrepancy here. But objectively,
Speaker 2: you're getting about three points of line value if you
Speaker 2: want to bet on Georgia Southern for me, that would
Speaker 2: be the side at be on.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I feel like you're completely spot on there
Speaker 1: with the fact that when you have a team covered
Speaker 1: by this much, the books are going to go, Okay,
Speaker 1: we need to we need to reevaluate a little bit
Speaker 1: and start shading this a little bit the other way because,
Speaker 1: like you said, they want to get money on the
Speaker 1: other side. Here. Now, this next game up, we've got
Speaker 1: Clemson at four now in the rankings, going up against
Speaker 1: Florida State, who of course is fallen out after that
Speaker 1: loss to NC State. Here this number right now is
Speaker 1: going to be four points in favor of the Tigers.
Speaker 1: Florida State. Florida State, can they do it?
Speaker 2: Probably? Probably not. My line on this game is is
Speaker 2: Clemson minded six? But at least you give you give
Speaker 2: Florida State the puncher's chance. We'll have to see. On
Speaker 2: Brian bresays uh status Clemson stud defensive lineman. He missed
Speaker 2: another game this past Saturday. Uh, he missed the Boston
Speaker 2: College game. He's now missed two straight games with his
Speaker 2: his non football medical. Uh. If you he's a big
Speaker 2: deal for them. They Clemson has had the upfront injuries.
Speaker 2: I think Xavier Thomas came back for Clemson on on Saturday,
Speaker 2: but they Clemson has had the shuttlings in their front
Speaker 2: seven that they've had all these different injuries. But that's
Speaker 2: something to keep an eye on. Brian Brees is one
Speaker 2: of the he might be the best defensive tackle on America,
Speaker 2: but if not, he's one of the three or four best.
Speaker 2: So his injury status is certainly something to keep an
Speaker 2: eye on, especially against his Florida State team that runs
Speaker 2: the ball so well. I mean Mike Norve going back
Speaker 2: several you know, going back to his Memphis days teams
Speaker 2: are you know, one of the best rushing coaches in
Speaker 2: the nation. But speaking to that, the running back for
Speaker 2: them Ward got injured in the last game, So that's
Speaker 2: another status thing that you're going to have to keep
Speaker 2: an eye on in this one. But I think I
Speaker 2: would lean Clemson in this one. Florida State did not
Speaker 2: look very good in their last one against NC State,
Speaker 2: and then we talked about NC State before. NC State
Speaker 2: had suffered all of those injuries in that game. And
Speaker 2: that's an NC State team that looked terrible the week
Speaker 2: before against Clemson. They had lost by ten in that game,
Speaker 2: but they NC State had scored the garbage touchdown at
Speaker 2: the very end, so really it's more like a seventeen
Speaker 2: point loss and you're like, well, you know that's it
Speaker 2: was to Clemson. But I can bake in the context
Speaker 2: the Clemson was basically playing with their second string defense
Speaker 2: in that game because they Clemson had ruled out all
Speaker 2: of these defenders, Like you can go back and look
Speaker 2: at the you know, like who they played in that game.
Speaker 2: They'd ruled out all these different starters in that game.
Speaker 2: So so NC State was basically playing against it you know,
Speaker 2: a lot, a lot of these second stringers or whatever.
Speaker 2: Not an impressive performance by NC State. And and then
Speaker 2: you know, Florida State then loses to NC State when
Speaker 2: NC State was you know, had lost you know, Leary
Speaker 2: and the running back and then the wide receiver two
Speaker 2: and with down some of these other guys whatever. I think,
Speaker 2: you know, Clemson, especially if if you know now now
Speaker 2: they are they have way, they're way healthier than they
Speaker 2: were back then. I and and now Florida State might
Speaker 2: be without their running back. I like Clemson in that one.
Speaker 1: Now, Kentucky, I mean, we've already talked about a couple
Speaker 1: of them. It's the basketball blue bloods playing football and
Speaker 1: playing it well right now. A couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 1: we were talking about how, oh, look at all these
Speaker 1: teams Duke, UCLA, Kentucky four, and oh Syracuse obviously, but
Speaker 1: no one was giving him any credit. But I'm not
Speaker 1: bitter or anything about that. Now, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: Kentucky two straight losses here to Ole miss and the
Speaker 1: game Cocks. They go to play Mississippi State now in
Speaker 1: a battle of twenty two versus sixteen to Kentucky still
Speaker 1: even be ranked at twenty second after two straight losses
Speaker 1: like this, and should they be getting six points or
Speaker 1: should they be getting more at home against Mississippi State
Speaker 1: in the spot.
Speaker 2: Well, it's all of those questions are dependent on is
Speaker 2: we'll leave it as we will leave us healthy or not?
Speaker 2: Right like, cause if we'll leave us, if we'll leave
Speaker 2: us plays we can sell Carolina. They beat South Carolina
Speaker 2: and then those are all mute. And then if he
Speaker 2: plays again, you know, against Missippi State, it's it's a
Speaker 2: different story. And his status, It's like all all that
Speaker 2: stuff is dependent on that, right, Like if he plays
Speaker 2: in this game, like I'm taking the what is it
Speaker 2: that the six points? But if he doesn't play, I'm
Speaker 2: laying for sure with Mississippi State, Like Mississippi State is
Speaker 2: going to beat the heck out of Kentucky if it's
Speaker 2: that kid Sharona or whoever that Kentucky was playing, will
Speaker 2: leave us. The difference between will leave us and the
Speaker 2: backup of Kentucky it's worth double It's legitimately where double
Speaker 2: dated points that the backup of Kentucky stinks. And they
Speaker 2: you know, they were, I mean, like Chris Rodriguez, he
Speaker 2: was doing his best out there, you know, I mean,
Speaker 2: like he ran for against South Carolina ran for like
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty yards or one hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: five years. He was still grinding it out, but there
Speaker 2: was absolutely no threat of the pass. And South Carolina
Speaker 2: a team that has had terrible trend play on both
Speaker 2: sides of the ball, they were They still controlled that
Speaker 2: game that like the entire way on the road. And
Speaker 2: Missippi State is a far so period team to South Carolina.
Speaker 2: So I mean again, this game is highly dependent on
Speaker 2: will Leavis's status. That's the thing that people need to monitor.
Speaker 2: If you think that will Leaves is not going to
Speaker 2: play in this game, you need to bet on miss
Speaker 2: You need to lay the points and take the value
Speaker 2: before that that's announced. But if you think that the
Speaker 2: leave is gonna play, absolutely take the points. Well, there's
Speaker 2: still value because when when the news comes out about that,
Speaker 2: there's gonna be line movement. So if you get information beforehand,
Speaker 2: take the value now.
Speaker 1: Thor you know what my favorite bet of the week is,
Speaker 1: that's out USC versus Utah. Should Utah win this game,
Speaker 1: I will bet you any amount of money. Then we
Speaker 1: will hear the pundits on TV going on a number
Speaker 1: twenty Utah upsets number seven USC. What a game, blah
Speaker 1: blah blah. They're gonna call it a big upset, but
Speaker 1: it's not because Utah is laying four points against the
Speaker 1: Trojans here. And yeah, the Trojans, they are seventh in
Speaker 1: the nation right now.
Speaker 2: But you look at their.
Speaker 1: Schedule, Rice, Stanford, Fresno State, barely squeak by Oregon State,
Speaker 1: then you had the big win over Arizona State, and
Speaker 1: then of course they go out they beat Washington State
Speaker 1: last week third well yesterday, thirty to fourteen. But now
Speaker 1: they go to play the Utes, and the Utes are
Speaker 1: laying four in this one as the twentieth ranked team
Speaker 1: in the nation. I guarantee you if they win this game,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be calling an upset when it is not.
Speaker 1: But do you think that the Utes can pull this
Speaker 1: one out? Is this line where it should be?
Speaker 2: I yeah, I mean they certainly can. They're a team
Speaker 2: that the profiles decently well against USC. The way that
Speaker 2: Whittingham has always constituted his defense, it was a direct
Speaker 2: response to spread offenses. And you know, I mean obviously
Speaker 2: that's what Lincoln runs. Does that mean that they're going
Speaker 2: to be, you know, not necessarily but like and then
Speaker 2: also on offense, they run the the physical doubt hill
Speaker 2: running game and uh, we'll see how how us he's
Speaker 2: you know, new Look defense, how it deals with that.
Speaker 2: I would have been concerned if tav On Thomas, the
Speaker 2: Utah running the you know, the the big physical downhill
Speaker 2: running back of Utah, if he wasn't playing in this game.
Speaker 2: But even though he was questionable, and even up to kickoff,
Speaker 2: there was these questions, Uh, when they were playing U
Speaker 2: C l A on Saturday, is tab On Thomas going
Speaker 2: to play? Which I didn't even know that he you know,
Speaker 2: he was, he was questionable before that game, but then
Speaker 2: he ended up playing, so you know, I guess that
Speaker 2: he's you know, he's fine. So he is going to
Speaker 2: pose a problem for for U S defense. Utah is
Speaker 2: going to ride him. Uh there, So I mean, does
Speaker 2: Utah absolutely they got a shot. This is it's you know,
Speaker 2: there's the the UFC saying of styles make fights. This
Speaker 2: is a fascinating stylistic fight. You have the the you know,
Speaker 2: the the the the the burly brawler type in in
Speaker 2: Utah against your more stylish kind of fighter in in
Speaker 2: in Usc. This is for me that this is a
Speaker 2: handicap I'm gonna get into all week because I don't
Speaker 2: I don't think this is one you gotta bet early
Speaker 2: in the week right now that there's no value on
Speaker 2: this line at all. My adjusted number on this one
Speaker 2: right now is Utah minus four point three line right
Speaker 2: now in the market is Utah minus four. It's it's
Speaker 2: right there. So but yeah, it's it's one to dig
Speaker 2: in for the week. But yeah, I mean, either of
Speaker 2: these two teams could could win, and it's again, uh,
Speaker 2: totally opposite strategies, and it's gonna be one of those
Speaker 2: two opposing forces, uh locking horns on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Now, the last game that we want to talk about here,
Speaker 1: the biggest one of the week, well second biggest mind
Speaker 1: syracusancy State. But you know who's counting Alabama against Tennessee.
Speaker 1: I haven't seen the balls ranked sixth in a long time,
Speaker 1: my friend, But here we are in this one, and
Speaker 1: Bama did not look great last week, and they dropped
Speaker 1: all the way down to three. They're getting, they're getting,
Speaker 1: They're laying seven and a half points going into Tennessee here.
Speaker 1: I mean it's three versus six. But is Tennessee really
Speaker 1: all that good? Is Tennessee living up to the hype
Speaker 1: here this season? For you? Are they where they should be?
Speaker 1: They've got the wins over Ball State, pitt Akron, Florida,
Speaker 1: and LSU, neither of which are now ranked. I don't know.
Speaker 1: This resume isn't jumping off the page to me? Should
Speaker 1: they be six there? Should they be getting more than
Speaker 1: seven and a half against Bama?
Speaker 2: Tennessee's good. Tennessee's good for sure. The the win against LSU,
Speaker 2: you know in Baton rouge by was it twenty seven?
Speaker 2: That was the one for me? That was like the
Speaker 2: way like the alarm bell one of like this team
Speaker 2: is legit. The game against Alabama. You know, we talked
Speaker 2: about a couple of games this week where it comes
Speaker 2: down to a player status. This is probably the biggest one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah Young?
Speaker 2: Is Bryce Young gonna play if if this whole game
Speaker 2: comes down to that, if Tennessee gets Jalen Milrow, uh,
Speaker 2: I might even favorite Tennessee like ol right right, but
Speaker 2: if they're playing Bryce Young, this line should be Alabama
Speaker 2: by double digits. And and and what I think that
Speaker 2: Vegas has done with this line, It's essentially split the baby, right,
Speaker 2: like you know, installing Alabama as seven and a half
Speaker 2: point favorites at Tennessee. Right if if if if they
Speaker 2: if Alabama comes out and says Bryce Young playing, I
Speaker 2: think you're gonna see this line tick up to Alabama
Speaker 2: minus ten and a half or eleven, maybe even a
Speaker 2: little bit above real quick. But if he's ruled out,
Speaker 2: it gonna drop real quick. So I mean, like, that's
Speaker 2: what I think has happened here is is you're dropping
Speaker 2: it right in the middle until we see Nick Saban
Speaker 2: ain't gonna tell anybody. He played some games with Jimbo
Speaker 2: last week, which I loved with just chef's kiss. He
Speaker 2: didn't say anything all week, and then game time was
Speaker 2: just absolutely fabulous. Didn't say anything. I didn't. I didn't
Speaker 2: think there was any chance that that Bryce Young was
Speaker 2: gonna play. He has an ac joint sprain of his
Speaker 2: throwing shoulder. Quin Hears has an ac joint sprain of
Speaker 2: his non throwing shoulder, and he's out for three weeks.
Speaker 2: So it's like they're no shot to Bryce Young gonna
Speaker 2: play the next week. And then they announced Bryce Young
Speaker 2: as the starter on the PA system thirty minutes before
Speaker 2: at the game, I get in all these text messages
Speaker 2: and I'm like, no way, no way, no way, and
Speaker 2: and you know it's crazy. And then of course Milroe
Speaker 2: then you know, actually trots out with the starters like
Speaker 2: when you know they take their first snap. Just epic
Speaker 2: trolling by by Nick Saban. But we'll see in this one.
Speaker 2: We we don't know, we we we have we have
Speaker 2: absolutely no idea. And ac joint spring is not something
Speaker 2: that categorically takes you out. It's a pain threshold injury
Speaker 2: that you theoretically can play through, uh through a combination
Speaker 2: of again pain tolerance dash uh taking uh one of
Speaker 2: them shots, you know, sort of a thing. It's it's
Speaker 2: both your biology and then also you know if if
Speaker 2: you take something that can mitigate the pain, et cetera,
Speaker 2: it's it's we'll see, you know, I mean, he got
Speaker 2: what five more six more days to see. But whether
Speaker 2: Bryce Young is playing is going to go a long
Speaker 2: way towards towards this handicap and also the result of
Speaker 2: the game. But right now, with where that line is,
Speaker 2: it is very clear that the sports books are splitting
Speaker 2: the baby. You need to monitor Bryce young status. But
Speaker 2: right now, with where that is, this is a very
Speaker 2: fair line that has been put out there.
Speaker 1: That play called by Jimbo Fisher at the end of
Speaker 1: the game final plays one of the worst things. They
Speaker 1: didn't even to the episode.
Speaker 2: So dumb. So you have a shot, You have a shot, man,
Speaker 2: yet you didn't take it. Yeah, you you actually had
Speaker 2: a shot to win that game. You actually had a shot.
Speaker 2: And yeah. Oh man, yeah, I mean I'm not an
Speaker 2: a and M fan. I don't care.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's always nice to see Bamba go down.
Speaker 2: Well yeah, I mean, I mean, I don't care either way.
Speaker 2: But but it's like, uh, just for the sport of football.
Speaker 2: You're like, man, I mean, why aren't you trying to win? Man, Like,
Speaker 2: don't you at least put the ball in the end
Speaker 2: zone at least give yourself the best shot of it.
Speaker 2: Like it's it's just one of those where you're just
Speaker 2: like frustrated for fairness.
Speaker 1: You know, it was more frustrating than the Thursday Night
Speaker 1: Football Russell Wilson absolutely horrible fourth down play on the
Speaker 1: goal line there. But it is what it is, and
Speaker 1: we're onto the next week here and that is going
Speaker 1: to do it for us, ladies and gentlemen. Those the
Speaker 1: biggest games of the week thor thank you so much
Speaker 1: for your thoughts as always. Of course, if people want
Speaker 1: to find you and what you're doing around the internet
Speaker 1: and what you're doing for college football for Betting Pros
Speaker 1: for the rest of the week, they can head onto
Speaker 1: your Twitter at thor ku you're gonna be posting there
Speaker 1: all the time. One of the best cats. Seriously, guys,
Speaker 1: give him a follow. You don't want to miss it.
Speaker 1: And of course this Wednesday night, the podcast is gonna
Speaker 1: drop with you and Scott Bogman, where you guys are
Speaker 1: detailing the weekend ahead. We got a more clear picture
Speaker 1: of the lines at this point. And of course Saturday morning,
Speaker 1: right and early seven am Pacific time ten am Eastern,
Speaker 1: you guys are breaking down the day's slate of games,
Speaker 1: making sure that everybody has exactly what they need to
Speaker 1: get through the weekend ahead. It was another great show
Speaker 1: this week with Mike Farrell and you can look forward
Speaker 1: to another one next week on the Betting Pros YouTube page,
Speaker 1: and don't forget to follow Betting Pros at Betting Pros
Speaker 1: on Twitter and thor Thanks again so much for being
Speaker 1: with us here, guys. Best of luck this week and
Speaker 1: let's catch some tickets.
Speaker 2: M