WEBVTT - BBH's Scott Clemons: Optimistic on Personal Consumption (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Broomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Handquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pellett. Stock still remain law, but the SMP

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred index has trinned. It's lost right now. It

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<v Speaker 1>is down point one percent, have been down five tenths

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent. The SMP falling two points down. Industrials

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<v Speaker 1>down eighty five, a drop of five tenths of one percent,

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<v Speaker 1>NASA stank is up nine, a gain of two tenths

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent. Ten, you're up three thirty seconds with

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<v Speaker 1>the old of one point eight four percent, Gold of

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<v Speaker 1>a dollar fort heats twelve fifteen twenty on advanced there

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<v Speaker 1>of point one percent, and crude oil down eight tenths

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent, down forty cents now forty ninety two

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<v Speaker 1>for a barrel of West Texas in the media crude.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg Business Flash. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>very much, Charlie Pellett at his time Now for the

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<v Speaker 1>et F Report. It has brought to you by Van

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<v Speaker 1>eck Vector's et F s. Expect more from your muni's

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<v Speaker 1>with low cost e t F s. Visit vaneck dot

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<v Speaker 1>com slash Muni vanek access the opportunities. Let's go to

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<v Speaker 1>Catherine Cowdery for the e t F report. Some e

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<v Speaker 1>t F investors may be wishing they'd paid attention to

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<v Speaker 1>that old saying sell in May and go away. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Intelligence analyst Eric Beltun has focused on a few e

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<v Speaker 1>t F that have pulled back this month. The market

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<v Speaker 1>vector Steel e t F. You probably didn't even think

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<v Speaker 1>there was a steel et attracts companies that make steel.

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<v Speaker 1>It got sold off in May, but this is profit taking.

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<v Speaker 1>It was up this year up until then, so a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people literally are selling in May. Valcuna says

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<v Speaker 1>investors are selling to lock in some profits. His other

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<v Speaker 1>examples include the I Shares MSCI Turkey e t F,

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<v Speaker 1>which again scent this year up until May and has

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<v Speaker 1>dropped ten percent this month. He also cites the van

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<v Speaker 1>x Vectors gold Miners e t F, which was up

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<v Speaker 1>sent until May one and has dropped eleven per cent

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<v Speaker 1>since then. That's your Bloomberg ETF report. I'm Katherine Calderie.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Taking Stock with Pim Box and Kathleen

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<v Speaker 1>Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Where is the stock market going

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<v Speaker 1>next as it waits for the big jobs report on Friday?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that waits for the feds next policy meeting in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of June. A lot of global forces buttressing

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<v Speaker 1>stocks right now. Scott Clemmens joins us here in our

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<v Speaker 1>New York studio. He's Chief Investment Strategies for private wealth

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<v Speaker 1>Management at Brown Brothers Caraman here in New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome Scott, Thank you, Kathleen. Happy summer it's here, isn't it?

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<v Speaker 1>Big time? Big time? Well, you know, uh, this summer

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<v Speaker 1>may be heating up the weather on the East Coast.

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<v Speaker 1>But corporate earnings, you know, if you look at them broadly,

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<v Speaker 1>have not Certainly some companies performing well. This is one

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<v Speaker 1>of the big factors you're looking at as you look

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<v Speaker 1>in the second half of the year for the US

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<v Speaker 1>stock market. That's right. I think one of my job

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<v Speaker 1>descriptions is that I get paid to worry, and perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>the top of the worry list is the lack of

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<v Speaker 1>corporate earnings. To extend the metaphor, earnings are the fuel

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<v Speaker 1>and the tank, and the fuel tank is running sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thin. We've had six consecutive quarters now of a

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<v Speaker 1>year over year decline in corporate earnings for the S

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<v Speaker 1>and P. And that's that's that's worrisome. It's easy to

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<v Speaker 1>blame a certain amount of that on the energy sector.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also obvious to blame the energy sector, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>not entirely energy. It's a pretty widespread malaise and profitability

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<v Speaker 1>in corporate America. Having said that, let's look at some

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<v Speaker 1>individual sectors, perhaps either housing or automobiles. Is we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to get those new figures. Yeah, those are the Those

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<v Speaker 1>are the two big drivers of the personal consumption personal

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<v Speaker 1>income type numbers we've gotten, and they're two strong points

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<v Speaker 1>of the economy. Uh. And that's important because if you

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<v Speaker 1>think about it, housing is the primary driver of wealth

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<v Speaker 1>for most Americans. It's it's not a financial portfolio, despite

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<v Speaker 1>most of your listener base, it's really the roof over

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<v Speaker 1>people's heads. It's the primary store of wealth. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the job markets the primary source of income. So as

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<v Speaker 1>long as those two things are in decent shape, the

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<v Speaker 1>driver of personal income and personal consumption is in pretty

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<v Speaker 1>good shape. One of the things that I'm looking for

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<v Speaker 1>over the balance of this year is whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>we get an acceleration in wage growth. And we may

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<v Speaker 1>be beginning to see that average hourly learnings up two

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent year over a year. That's not

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<v Speaker 1>a great big number, but it does represent a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of an acceleration. That's important because that not only

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<v Speaker 1>drives the economy, but ultimately it trickles down into corporate

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<v Speaker 1>earnings as well. And of course we'll get that piece

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<v Speaker 1>of news on Friday in the in the jobs report.

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<v Speaker 1>Corporate earnings, the fact that even absent energy, they haven't

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<v Speaker 1>been that great. As the Fed to Reserve contemplates raising

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<v Speaker 1>the rate June July, waiting until September, we don't know

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<v Speaker 1>should they be looking at that. The consumer, even if

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<v Speaker 1>we get stronger wage growth, consumer is not roaring. It

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<v Speaker 1>just kind of plotting along to that. I'd be more

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<v Speaker 1>concerned about corporate earnings and corporate profits, you know. I

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<v Speaker 1>think if that's concerned about a lot of things, not

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<v Speaker 1>enough to hold them back from raising rates in either

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<v Speaker 1>June or July would be my bed. And it's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a coin flipp as too, which the two it is.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe the FED is looking for reasons to raise

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates, because if they were simply dealt the hand

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<v Speaker 1>that they've got, which is an unemployment rate of five percent,

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<v Speaker 1>a reasonably good economy, it's not running away that it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's not strong, but compared to the rest of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>it's okay. And they asked themselves, is that consistent with

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates measured in basis points instead of percentage points? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Fed would very much like to raise

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates. They're not being held back by politics, that's

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<v Speaker 1>being an election year. Uh, They're not being prompted by inflation.

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<v Speaker 1>They're no real inflationary concerns. But I think they'd rather

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<v Speaker 1>move them sooner rather than later, simply that they can

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<v Speaker 1>reastore a little bit of a normality to interest rates,

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<v Speaker 1>knowing full well that at some point they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>want to cut interest rates again. They can't say that

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<v Speaker 1>that would lead to concern and maybe even panic in

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<v Speaker 1>the marketplace, But they right now don't have the ability

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<v Speaker 1>to lower interest rates in response to an economic downturn.

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<v Speaker 1>That tools not in the toolbox. They very much like

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<v Speaker 1>to put it back. Scott, what about investing in stocks?

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<v Speaker 1>Most of our client moneys and stocks. And it's simply

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<v Speaker 1>because the risk return trade off and fixed income, at

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<v Speaker 1>least traditional fixed income is simply not that appealing. So

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<v Speaker 1>we are finding within the market and and and to

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<v Speaker 1>go back to an earlier question, you ask those parts

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<v Speaker 1>of the market that that are reliant on consumers spending,

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<v Speaker 1>you find that mostly in the consumer discretionary even the

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<v Speaker 1>consumer nondiscretionary. Healthcare would be another our investors paying too

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<v Speaker 1>much though for these particular types of stuff. Because I

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<v Speaker 1>keep thinking at if you tell me that corporate earnings

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<v Speaker 1>are terrible, that a generalization to understanding, but in certain

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<v Speaker 1>sectors they're terrible. You want to buy something when they're

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<v Speaker 1>terrible because you want to make sure that someone else

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<v Speaker 1>buys it from you when they think it's great, exactly right,

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<v Speaker 1>exactly right, buy low and sell high. I seem to

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<v Speaker 1>call that being one of the investment UH guys to success.

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<v Speaker 1>It can help you keep solving. It's still it's still

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<v Speaker 1>very much the case. So it's a question of value

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<v Speaker 1>versus price. And although the overall market is reasonably fully

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<v Speaker 1>priced about twenty one times trailing earnings, that's not a forecast,

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<v Speaker 1>that's trailing earnings operating earnings. There are certainly UH sectors

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<v Speaker 1>and companies within the market that aren't trading at that

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<v Speaker 1>it's a very narrowly led market. Even though as we

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<v Speaker 1>sit here today, the SNP five hundred is within let's say,

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of percent of a new all time high,

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<v Speaker 1>most of the stocks in the market are not, So

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<v Speaker 1>there are opportunities. I just ran this data today. There's

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<v Speaker 1>something along the lines of a hundred and fifty stocks

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<v Speaker 1>within the SNP five hundred, So a hundred of the

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<v Speaker 1>names in the index are or more below they're fifty

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<v Speaker 1>two week high. So there are opportunities within the market,

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<v Speaker 1>although the overall index level wouldn't lead you necessarily that conclusion.

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<v Speaker 1>So give us some industries. I know you can't share

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<v Speaker 1>your individual company names that you're investing your clients many in,

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<v Speaker 1>but let's start with something that you know, technology and

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<v Speaker 1>within within technology, what part of technology you do or

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<v Speaker 1>don't like, because it's a pretty broad field. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>broad field, it's a very broad field. We draw a

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<v Speaker 1>distinction within technology between service providers and product providers, and

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<v Speaker 1>we love to own companies that sell essential products and

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<v Speaker 1>services that have repeat customers. That ends to be more

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<v Speaker 1>of a service type business model than a product type

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<v Speaker 1>business model, and particularly when that services relying on demand

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<v Speaker 1>from the consumer, and we're pretty optimistic about the strength

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<v Speaker 1>of personal consumption. We're finding opportunities in those areas. Mascott,

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<v Speaker 1>I understand you help manage it. Brown Brothers haremon about

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven billion dollars of customer assets. What are some

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<v Speaker 1>of the questions that you are being asked by these customers? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and some of them are the obvious questions. When is

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<v Speaker 1>the FED going to raise interest rates and by how much?

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<v Speaker 1>And that's really born out of a desire to earn

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<v Speaker 1>a reasonable rate of return out of traditional fixed income

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<v Speaker 1>conservative investors. And I think I would characterize most of

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<v Speaker 1>our clients as conservative investors with a lower case love

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of earning a reasonable rate of return on

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<v Speaker 1>stable patient capital. And that's what's a reasonable rate of return,

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<v Speaker 1>something measured in percentage points, not basis points. Um. I

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<v Speaker 1>was talking to a colleague uh last week about money

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<v Speaker 1>market yields, and we looked at a graph and and

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<v Speaker 1>and realized, much to our shock, that money markets back

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<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and seven not ancient history. You can

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<v Speaker 1>earn five five and a quarter percent on money markets.

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<v Speaker 1>And when you say that today you sound like granddad

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<v Speaker 1>talking about nickel coax down at the corner store. But

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<v Speaker 1>that that's an extraordinary example of how far we've come

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<v Speaker 1>to get five and a quarter percent today. And fixed

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<v Speaker 1>income you have to own non investment grade debt junk bonds.

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<v Speaker 1>So a little less than ten years you've gone from

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<v Speaker 1>money markets to junk to earn the same amount of return.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a pretty telling statement about how challenging it is

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<v Speaker 1>for investors today. Coogog overseas equity market. You started your

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<v Speaker 1>career as a portfolio manager looking at European stocks, at

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<v Speaker 1>Asian equities, So do you see buying opportunities in those

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<v Speaker 1>areas of the world selectively? And and and Kathleen, more

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<v Speaker 1>often than not in the shares of multinational companies that buy,

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<v Speaker 1>if you will, historical accident happen to be located in

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<v Speaker 1>a certain part of the world. But but really, who

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<v Speaker 1>do not respect any geographic borders when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>pursuing clients and pursuing business growth? And and I believe

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<v Speaker 1>as an investor we should look through the geographic borders

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<v Speaker 1>as well and looking for opportunities. So there are fewer

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<v Speaker 1>and far between, and where we find them, it's more

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<v Speaker 1>in the multinational sector. Do you have any thoughts on

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<v Speaker 1>the US dollar right now? You know, I've got colleagues

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<v Speaker 1>who pay opportation and that mark chancel, you know, mar

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of what it means for corporate profits, because

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<v Speaker 1>I keep hearing this thing, well, you know the reason

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<v Speaker 1>that they're having trouble selling things overseas is, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the dollars too expensive. I I generally, I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>more of an excuse than a reason. When you actually

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<v Speaker 1>open the hood and look below the hood of what

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<v Speaker 1>companies do. They're either operationally hedged or they're financially hedged.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's a handy reason for I'm gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>cynical now for a CFO to explain away a quarters miss,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think it's more excuse than it is a

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<v Speaker 1>reason more often than not. Thank you very much, much appreciated.

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<v Speaker 1>Scott Clements is the chief investment strategist Private wealth Management

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<v Speaker 1>for Brown Brothers Harriman, helping to manage nearly twenty seven

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of customer assets. You're listening to take king Stock,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm pim Fox my co host Kathleen Hayes, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna take you through to the close of trading right

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<v Speaker 1>now on taking stock on Bloomberg Radio. H