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Speaker 1: Welcome to Trallians. I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric beltunas Eric.

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Speaker 1: But it's about to help people get ready for that.

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Speaker 1: The analysts and Bloomberg Intelligence that you work with and

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Speaker 1: lead have helped us come up with a list. What's

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Speaker 1: going to be on this list? Well, this list is

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Speaker 1: essentially called the outlook um Outlooks are one of those

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Speaker 1: required things that we haven't b I We have a

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Speaker 1: lot of freedom, but a couple of things we have

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Speaker 1: to do, primers and an outlook. Now we're a little late.

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Speaker 1: A lot of outlooks coming out in November, smoothing in October.

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Speaker 1: We put out ours out in December, and we look,

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Speaker 1: We look at the year that just happened, obviously, and

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Speaker 1: then we sort of forecast forward what we think and

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Speaker 1: just cope with an overall theme. Our overall theme this

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Speaker 1: year was that the era of the e t F

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Speaker 1: will be here for a while, and largely because of

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Speaker 1: the flows. The volume and the number of launches were

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Speaker 1: just so high and extraordinary for the market being completely decimated.

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Speaker 1: Both stocks and bonds had one of the worst years ever.

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Speaker 1: You would think that would put a suppressive force on

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Speaker 1: most of those things, but they almost reached records of

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Speaker 1: everything again. So you have a crystal ball and you

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Speaker 1: look into it and tell me that E t f

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Speaker 1: s are gonna keep getting bigger. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean

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Speaker 1: we always had this phrase on the team that we've

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Speaker 1: used in fact our twenty twenty one outlook, I think

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Speaker 1: was bowl markets are good for ets, but bear markets

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Speaker 1: are even better, and we were right. This year showed

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Speaker 1: exactly that. So but I actually stunned at how much

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Speaker 1: they both the launches and the flows in particular, uh,

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Speaker 1: almost six billion dollars and flows I would have guessed lower.

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Speaker 1: I would have guessed more like three four and mutual

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Speaker 1: funds almost a trillion, and outflows. So this shift to

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Speaker 1: e t f s and passive has expedited in this

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Speaker 1: kind of brutal environment. So I don't know, I feel justified.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad I voted my career to this stuff because

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Speaker 1: it's it's definitely growing. It's the vehicle of the century. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So who's gonna be joining us? And how are we

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Speaker 1: gonna structure this one? So we have the whole team here.

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Speaker 1: I think this might be the first time everybody is here.

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Speaker 1: We might have done what this once before. So you've

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Speaker 1: got Athanasio, Sara Fagus, and James Seffert who are both

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Speaker 1: here in the studio with us, who are on regularly.

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Speaker 1: We've got Henry jim Over in Europe and Rebecca Soon

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Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. And Henry leads up Europe, Rebecca leads

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Speaker 1: up Asia. And so everybody's going to give their two

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Speaker 1: cents from where they sit this time on Trillions, the

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Speaker 1: twenty three outlook, Henry, Rebecca, Athanasios, James. Welcome back to Trillions, Henry,

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Speaker 1: first time, welcome, Hello, How are you doing? Before we

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Speaker 1: hear from everybody? Eric, you want to tell us how

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Speaker 1: great you are? That wasn't how I asked you to

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Speaker 1: set me up. Okay, fine, listen, Um, we've been right

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Speaker 1: a lot. I gotta be honest, like our calls have

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Speaker 1: been pretty good. One thing about outlooks that I find

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Speaker 1: frustrating on the cell side is they tann't tend to

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Speaker 1: just repackage the past with the future tents, and what

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Speaker 1: happens is the future tends to change. So they're wrong

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Speaker 1: a lot. Honestly, We've made a lot of calls that

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Speaker 1: were against the grain, and I just want to take

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Speaker 1: a victory lap here I'm sorry. Now I will go

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Speaker 1: over the ones we got wrong. We have a couple

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Speaker 1: wrong too, but here's the ones we got right. Over

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Speaker 1: the past two years, ARC would hang tough, called it

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Speaker 1: got it right. They've seen influence. This year, the SEC

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Speaker 1: would approve a bitcoin futures et F and pro Shares

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Speaker 1: would be the first out with it. This was all James,

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Speaker 1: He nailed it. We picked up a lot of crypto

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Speaker 1: people because we were the most aggressive on that call,

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Speaker 1: and it both turned out to be correct. We Um

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Speaker 1: also said bear markets would expedite the e t F

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Speaker 1: and passive move. UM yours truly said an inverse Jim

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Speaker 1: Kramer et F would be filed, and it was um.

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Speaker 1: We thought that mutual fund to et F conversions would

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Speaker 1: grow quickly, and they have. They're actually getting Uh. Fidelity

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Speaker 1: just jumped in that that call is not totally right yet,

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Speaker 1: but it's in the right direction. Um. And when March,

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Speaker 1: when the bond sell off and the and everything was

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Speaker 1: really going bad and bondy TF showed like discounts and stuff,

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Speaker 1: I said, listen, bond ETFs are gonna double in assets

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Speaker 1: over the next three years. And I said that rate

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Speaker 1: in the dark of the night before the FED even

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Speaker 1: came in. They're almost there. It's still we got a

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Speaker 1: year ago, but there are two thirds of that asset level.

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Speaker 1: Bond ETFs crushed it this year in terms of flows. Um,

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Speaker 1: big passive fund companies should democratize their voting. They should

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Speaker 1: decentralize it. They did. Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab all announced plans.

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Speaker 1: E s G would confuse people and then struggle to

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Speaker 1: break two to three percent market share. I was probably

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Speaker 1: the most aggressive and negative on this, but they are.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they haven't seen any flows this year. Even

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Speaker 1: black Rock sold out the e s G funderal model.

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Speaker 1: They'll exist. I just don't think they're gonna grow beyond

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Speaker 1: I guess that one's not quite done yet. And then

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Speaker 1: I said two would be the last crypto super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Now I said it because I thought they might approve

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Speaker 1: a spot et F and that would pull people off

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Speaker 1: the exchanges and make them lower their fees for trading.

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Speaker 1: I didn't say it because I thought there would be

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Speaker 1: some big scandal with f t X. But I think

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Speaker 1: that is going to be the last curve of surouable.

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Speaker 1: So indirectly got that one. Something we got wrong. We

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Speaker 1: thought hold on, let's just okay, let's just take a moment, okay,

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Speaker 1: and just saver as long as you can save. He that,

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Speaker 1: but that's also you know, let's hear about the ones

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Speaker 1: that you you missed, all right, um, Ethan and I

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Speaker 1: in particular, we thought multi factor et s would take

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Speaker 1: over Smart Beta. That's when you put all the factors together. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Turns out people like their factors severally, but you know,

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Speaker 1: multi factors there, they got a legit like niche, but

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Speaker 1: they definitely didn't. They're not going to take over UM.

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Speaker 1: I think it's interesting in e t F land sometimes

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Speaker 1: when they when they merge, when they put too much together,

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Speaker 1: like you want. I know, Joel, you've been asking about

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Speaker 1: this everything e t F. I think sometimes that doesn't

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Speaker 1: actually work. People actually like the pieces sometimes more than

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Speaker 1: everything together. And that's I think the case here. We

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Speaker 1: also thought that the JP Morgan and Goldman like SMP

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Speaker 1: five hundred knockoff ETFs would get bigger and JP would

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Speaker 1: pull out of SPY and IVV and put it in

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Speaker 1: their own e t F s, and they haven't. The

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Speaker 1: SNP five under brand name is more powerful than we thought. UM.

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Speaker 1: And then fixed income smart bait, and we thought this

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Speaker 1: would be a much bigger deal by now it's really

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Speaker 1: it's still pretty small. I think it's fifty sixty billion equity.

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Speaker 1: Smart Bait is one trillion. So there's a whole disconnect

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Speaker 1: there and it just hasn't grown like we thought. James,

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Speaker 1: do we miss anything. Yeah, there's one that I got

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Speaker 1: to call myself out on. I thought we'd have an

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Speaker 1: ethereum future zt F two based on the fact that

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Speaker 1: we got bitcoin futures and feed different things. But that

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Speaker 1: has not happened. Um, so we got I got that

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Speaker 1: one wrong me personally. All right, congratulations on being great. Listen,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you could do the same thing with Business

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Speaker 1: Week articles. I know. So this is my version of that.

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Speaker 1: Let me have it in my life here and and

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Speaker 1: we roll the dice on these takes. Sometimes we put

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Speaker 1: ourselves out on a limb. We'd don't we don't play

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Speaker 1: it safe. We are in our your head issue. The

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Speaker 1: thing that we got right was the weak link in

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Speaker 1: crypto was going to be the brokerages, and that's it

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Speaker 1: was a broadway. We didn't say FTX specifically, but listen,

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Speaker 1: let's pet each other on the back right now, go

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Speaker 1: all right, Ethanasios, let's talk about what's your number one man? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'll start grim Um. I think closures are going to

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Speaker 1: pick up. We did the episode on the graveyard. I

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Speaker 1: think a couple on Halloween. Uh. There's two parts of

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Speaker 1: the equation, obviously, launches and closures. I don't see launches

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Speaker 1: slowing down. It was a you know, despite the market

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Speaker 1: being tough, launches still came in pretty strong this year.

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Speaker 1: You had last year, you had a lot of crazy

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Speaker 1: stuff coming to the market. I actually think that other

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Speaker 1: part of the equation is going to pick up. I

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Speaker 1: think people threw a lot of product out that's not

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Speaker 1: gonna you know, you need a bowl market, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're gonna have that next year, or you know,

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Speaker 1: it might be a tough from market. So I think

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Speaker 1: we're gonna see closures start to pick up on people

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Speaker 1: or issue or start to clean up their lineups. So

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Speaker 1: do you think more closures than than this year? Uh? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't. I mean this year was higher than last year.

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Speaker 1: I think it will be pretty high. I could probably

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Speaker 1: is just another call we have to pat ourselves in

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Speaker 1: the back. Next year, I think we could be a

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Speaker 1: really rough year. For closures. Okay, I guess we're starting

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Speaker 1: off on a bad note. Henry, first time on trillions

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Speaker 1: number one. Sure, I don't know if there's a whow you,

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Speaker 1: but what's allowing me is um active ETS. I think

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Speaker 1: Active is going to be uh continue their rocket tractory

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Speaker 1: in the US and the Europe. In Europe were falling

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Speaker 1: close behind two reasons. One, I think investors in the

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Speaker 1: US are starting to look beyond the structure and looking

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Speaker 1: at the strategy itself, so don't really care if it's

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Speaker 1: active or index anymore. In Europe, I don't think we've

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Speaker 1: actually finished the consolidating the ETS story. Um, so before

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Speaker 1: you can talk about active ETS, we have to get

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Speaker 1: the ETS story down first. However, people are still gravitiing

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Speaker 1: tourist Active. Yeah, it's interesting. Um semi transparent or non

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Speaker 1: transparent Active just total flop another call we got right,

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Speaker 1: I should have put that on the list. Oh my god, Sorry,

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Speaker 1: I'm annoying every listener right now. They're like, all right, dude,

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Speaker 1: it's just the patent the back show. We'll have a

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Speaker 1: roast next time. Okay. Uh, my other shoulder, but transparent

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Speaker 1: Active doing great Capital group came in transparent. They got

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Speaker 1: like five or six billion fidelity. Like there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of the transparent Active is doing just fine. I mean

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Speaker 1: Active is really I think carving out a nice niche, right, Tom, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think going back to your other there's another patent

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Speaker 1: the back, but the Cathy would call I think her

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Speaker 1: being transparent and her having that success might even kill

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Speaker 1: that narrative that you need to be non transparent to succeed. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and so I think I think the non transparent Active

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Speaker 1: is probably gonna slowly it lives in a very very

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Speaker 1: small niche, if not just go away eventually, and transparency

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Speaker 1: will will be how they do active. I think what's

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing though, also with the adoption of active

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Speaker 1: is a lot of intermediary not intermangors like I ra

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Speaker 1: A S are coming in. We have white labels are

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Speaker 1: trying to start out their own et S shops and

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Speaker 1: launching their active strategies because there's no more stigma if

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Speaker 1: there ever were on active ets. So they're just bringing

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Speaker 1: out there there there either they're trying improving strategies to

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Speaker 1: act to space or the strategies that weren't working out

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Speaker 1: that well, they're putting it into the et F wrapper

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Speaker 1: to try them out, so I'm gonna see how big

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Speaker 1: growth there. I do have one variation on this active call,

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Speaker 1: which is I think that you're going to see um

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Speaker 1: big legacy companies like Franklin Templeton Fidelity. At least, this

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Speaker 1: is what I would do. I will come out with

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Speaker 1: my best ideas funds, a concentrated portfolio, just twenty five

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Speaker 1: stocks like Cathy would style, but it's the best ideas

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Speaker 1: of your whole brain trust and make that a separate

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Speaker 1: et F and then just keep your mutual funds because

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Speaker 1: they're good cash cows right now, or convert them. But

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Speaker 1: then I think that a concentrated active fund fits well

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Speaker 1: on our otherwise boring beta core allah Cathey would and

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Speaker 1: I think she showed that. So I think we might

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Speaker 1: see legacy sort of archives itself a little and come

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Speaker 1: out with these best idea funds. That's just my call,

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Speaker 1: but you know, we'll see. Yeah, we's gonna have calls.

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Speaker 1: Do I'm only like, I'm only batting eight fifty, But

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Speaker 1: we'll see, we'll see, we'll see. Okay, James, what's your

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Speaker 1: number one? Yeah, So I'm gonna actually look a little

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Speaker 1: bit beyond here. A tad But so I mean, first

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Speaker 1: start by saying when I talk about mutual funds and everything,

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Speaker 1: I'm about to say, I'm excluding money market funds. We

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Speaker 1: don't really we don't consider them to be the same

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Speaker 1: type of situation when you're looking at ets first, mutual

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Speaker 1: funds um But so the one that is, we think

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Speaker 1: that passive could pass active and assets for ets and

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Speaker 1: mutual funds by the end of three Right now, the

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Speaker 1: trend is accelerated. Eric mentioned earlier, it actually has slowed

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Speaker 1: down in some furrors of the market. So one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons why passive tends to overtake or pass gain

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Speaker 1: market share and active during bear markets it is because

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Speaker 1: active has historically been so much larger. So if you're

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Speaker 1: a tent trall and you go down ten percent, that's

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Speaker 1: a lot more money that's going down if E t

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Speaker 1: F s are half or less than half that size,

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Speaker 1: So the bear market really hurts. You see outflows on

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Speaker 1: top of that, and then E t F really gained

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Speaker 1: market share. But what's happened now on the equity side

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Speaker 1: of things, there's passive equity assets are larger than active

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Speaker 1: equity assets, and the mutual fund ETF space combined, so

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Speaker 1: the exact opposite is happening. That said, we're still seeing

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Speaker 1: enough growth in the ETF to overcome that that that

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Speaker 1: lead that PASSI have had. So passive should be losing

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Speaker 1: more money than active in this bear market, but they're

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Speaker 1: not because so much money is pouring out. So because

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Speaker 1: of that, we think the trend is going to be.

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Speaker 1: It could happen by December. That's next year. I think

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Speaker 1: it's definitely going to happen by We would need a

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Speaker 1: massive regime shift of the last fifteen to twenty years

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Speaker 1: for that not to be the case. What percent of

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Speaker 1: the funds market is passive when it comes to equity, Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's so it's about okay, what about fixed than um

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Speaker 1: fixed income it's a it's about third. It's in the

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Speaker 1: mid thirties. And what this is, what's total total? It's

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Speaker 1: about So that you're saying that's going to go to

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Speaker 1: fifty one or fifty point one at the end of

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Speaker 1: next year, theoretically by December three, I think could happen.

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Speaker 1: It's going I would bet a lot of like you

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Speaker 1: would be you would I would be very confident that's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. In Now, let's shift to mutual fund to

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Speaker 1: e t F that's a whole another like sort of war.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at what is that person, what percentage of

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Speaker 1: assets the ETFs have relative to mutual funds, and where

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Speaker 1: do you see that going? Yeah, so again x money markets,

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Speaker 1: because there are trillions of dollars in money markets. But

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Speaker 1: we're about so if you take ets mutual funds, et

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Speaker 1: s makeup about and based on the current trajectory and

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Speaker 1: all the stuff we're talking about E t f s democratizing,

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Speaker 1: revolutionizing finance. People still pointing the ts. I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen by It could happen within five years. So

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Speaker 1: that's a big jump to go from twenty eight to fifty.

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Speaker 1: But at the current rate of change, it's it's not

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Speaker 1: that crazy to put out there. And I think most

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Speaker 1: people listening might actually feel like, I can't believe ETFs

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Speaker 1: only have twenty eight percent end of those assets. But

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Speaker 1: the media has really shifted to covering a t f

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Speaker 1: s and mutual funds don't get much coverage. We're actually

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Speaker 1: hiring somebody to cover mutual funds because a lot of

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Speaker 1: our clients actually want to read about there's still twenty

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Speaker 1: trillion in them and they've kind of been left behind

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Speaker 1: by the media, but they still have a ton of money,

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Speaker 1: and you know, it's slipping. But this is going to

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Speaker 1: take a long time for this all the playout, but

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Speaker 1: I agree with James, they will become the majority at

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Speaker 1: some point. Alright, your number two number two one is,

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Speaker 1: you know, beating the SMP is hard right over time,

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Speaker 1: it's just really hard to beat the index. So we

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Speaker 1: looked at this year. Actually a lot of ETFs did

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Speaker 1: better than the SMP five hundred, and it's because it

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Speaker 1: was a violatle market. And so I think next year,

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Speaker 1: if we're gonna be violat again, I think it will

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Speaker 1: be a good opportunity for other et f that'll perform.

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Speaker 1: Now I get it, not every ETF is supposed to

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Speaker 1: perform the market, but I think when you have a

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Speaker 1: market like we did this year, a lot of stuff

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Speaker 1: like value, energy, active, smart beta, things like that tend

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Speaker 1: to do well. So I'll probably be looking for a

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Speaker 1: lot of the same stuff next year. So more opportunities,

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Speaker 1: more trading, more ways to beat the market. So I

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Speaker 1: think that's you know, people don't realize not every ETF

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Speaker 1: is just supposed to be like an active strategy or

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Speaker 1: smart beta, A lot of people will trade throughout of them, right,

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Speaker 1: So there's just as many energy ETFs as there are

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Speaker 1: tech ETFs. And energy was really great this year, so

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Speaker 1: I think it will give opportunity to a lot of

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Speaker 1: things that were left for dead to be able to

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Speaker 1: perform next year. So that's something I'd be looking at.

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Speaker 1: A couple of comments. This is very interesting to me.

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Speaker 1: I think this also speaks to the fact that a

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Speaker 1: lot of smart beta e t f s tend to

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Speaker 1: be designed by people who overweight fundamentals and like stuff

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Speaker 1: that you learned in your cf A class that stuff

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Speaker 1: matters now they don't like, actually designed smart batts to

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Speaker 1: go after nonprofitable tech companies which work clearly for a while,

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Speaker 1: and left all these value funds which use you know,

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Speaker 1: more classic fundamentals like price to earnings ratios and stuff.

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Speaker 1: They now are kind of working. There what they They

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Speaker 1: were designed with a lot of evidence and now there

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Speaker 1: it's working because the market is value these things that

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Speaker 1: tend to always be valued after the bull market comes down, right,

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Speaker 1: it is a return a mean version kind of thing. Um.

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Speaker 1: And then to your point of the stuff like if

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Speaker 1: energy does well, you'll probably see a couple more energy

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Speaker 1: ETF launched, and so the product will start to go

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Speaker 1: towards the things that are working value energy materials and

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Speaker 1: then all there there where you're going to see some

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Speaker 1: out performance. Yeah. I agree. It's like spurs basketball, right,

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Speaker 1: like back to fundamentals. I think that's gonna work next year.

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Speaker 1: Last year was all like aliops and like you know,

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Speaker 1: and we're going crazy. I think this year it's going

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Speaker 1: to be just back to like most boring basketball. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, pick and rolls, like just basic basic. I'd

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Speaker 1: like that metaphor that it works, Henry, Let's here what

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Speaker 1: else you got for Europe. For Europe, my synkoll is

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Speaker 1: actually fixed income products UM. This last month for example,

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Speaker 1: bad massive flows UM back into e tps in general

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Speaker 1: and have the flows were into fixed income whereas they

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Speaker 1: only make up total assets. So in terms of fixing income,

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Speaker 1: my cul for next year is going to be fixing

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Speaker 1: in products for income generation and UH for combating inflation.

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Speaker 1: So that could be fixed for inflation, actually could be

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Speaker 1: fixed income, or it could be hard assets. So I

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Speaker 1: keep an eye out also for UM for like gold

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Speaker 1: bullion and other medals funds UM. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: cryptocurrency e tps here in Europe, and I think um

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Speaker 1: some investors saw it as a store of value. Given

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Speaker 1: the current situation, I think we'll see some people um

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Speaker 1: flowing out of the cryptocurrency TVs and back into a

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Speaker 1: gold bullion or other metals. Inflation and Income m E

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Speaker 1: t p s are mar caul for next year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so piggybacking on what Henry said here in the US,

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Speaker 1: we've fixed active fixed incommutual funds have It's been a

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Speaker 1: it's been a little bud blood bath so far in

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Speaker 1: two they've seen hundreds of billions of dollars and now

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Speaker 1: I think we have four hundred billion right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: half a trillion. Hold on half a trillion is six

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Speaker 1: times more than any other year of outflows, so it's

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Speaker 1: the record six times over. Yeah, So fixed income has

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Speaker 1: been active fixing. Commutual funds specifically have been crushed. But

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Speaker 1: et f s we've taken in a decent amount of

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Speaker 1: money and fixed income despite this rising rate environment, despite

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Speaker 1: the worst performance virtually ever for fixed income, and the

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Speaker 1: et f s are still taking in money. So that's

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Speaker 1: that goes into the fact that I talked about equity

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Speaker 1: wasn't gaining as much market share on the passive side

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Speaker 1: of things, but on the fixed income side of things,

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Speaker 1: it's really ramped up. Like we've seen a couple percentage

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Speaker 1: points ramp up in the passive verse active side of

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Speaker 1: things and on the E t F side of things

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Speaker 1: because of this mass outflow from mutual funds and into

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Speaker 1: e t s. At the same time, I think there's

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Speaker 1: a demographic a shift as well. Here a lot of

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Speaker 1: fixed in commutual funds were bought by boomers when they

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Speaker 1: were young, and their four one case, they're now seventy

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Speaker 1: eight years old. And if the Feds aggressively hiking I

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Speaker 1: if I was a boomer at that age, I might

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Speaker 1: not want to wait around. I might just take I

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Speaker 1: had a good run. It was like thirty year of

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Speaker 1: lowering of rates. I mean it was brilliant. I might

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Speaker 1: just cash out. I also think that the e t

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Speaker 1: F s are used more by institutions and allocators now

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Speaker 1: to pinpoint what they want right now. Like Tom had

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Speaker 1: a great note on the cash like a TS which

387
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Speaker 1: now yield four percent. So now you just buy one

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Speaker 1: of these cash like ats. You can buy any exchange

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Speaker 1: gives you four percent yield, you've got some cash you

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Speaker 1: wait to deploy to equities. So I think e t

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Speaker 1: f s are used for their tool purposes, whereas the

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Speaker 1: mutual funds were used a little more for like the

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Speaker 1: whole enchilada. Yeah, we we we we. We've talked on

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Speaker 1: the show about the single stock ets and that potential

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Speaker 1: growth area which hasn't really panned out. But one area

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Speaker 1: that has panned out is a single bond ets, the

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Speaker 1: one from FM Acceleration. They have hundreds of millions of

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Speaker 1: dollars they just launched this year, and they're targeting specific

399
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Speaker 1: on the run rolling of treasuries, which basically allows you

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Speaker 1: if you if you watch Bloomberg TV or CNBC, they

401
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Speaker 1: talk about specific points on the curve. These e t

402
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Speaker 1: f s allow you to actually target those exact things

403
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Speaker 1: that economists are talking about, and they're seeing significant uptick.

404
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Speaker 1: People want to invest in these things, these on the

405
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Speaker 1: run good treasuries. Yeah, and this brings up a point

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Speaker 1: people are like, oh my god, single stock ETF, single

407
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Speaker 1: bond ETFs, like this is ridiculous. Like but here's the

408
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Speaker 1: thing that people always underestimated about ETFs is convenience. Consumers

409
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Speaker 1: love convenience. Make it easy. They will come, people will

410
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Speaker 1: buy that. It's a pain to go out and short Teslas.

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Speaker 1: So there's an inverse Tesla. Just hit click you O,

412
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Speaker 1: you're on that. That trade is now on. Or it's

413
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Speaker 1: a pain to go buy the treasury. Now you just

414
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Speaker 1: buy this thing. It trades on exchange. Like Microsoft, you

415
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 1: now own this one bond. So I think that is

416
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Speaker 1: going to happen, the single stock, single bond, and even

417
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Speaker 1: you know who knows single commodity, we're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: move into this area. That's said with the single stock,

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Speaker 1: I do think it's going to be more limited than

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Speaker 1: people think. This whole spaghetti at the wall, nobody needs

421
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Speaker 1: single stock viser like inverse viser. It's probably gonna have

422
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Speaker 1: like six or seven stocks that people care about. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: Tesla's the first example could be meta. If it starts

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Speaker 1: to get volatile, there could be flavor of the month

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Speaker 1: that comes in and out and they single stock it

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Speaker 1: um and then you're gonna see a single stock where

427
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: they're gonna call options on it like Tesla covered call ETF.

428
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 1: So I think securities like Tesla and Arc are gonna

429
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: have these ecosystems built around them where there's multiple ets

430
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 1: that do trades around the stock, but then these outer

431
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: layer stocks I think will die. Like I don't think

432
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 1: we need a g E one point five times. I mean,

433
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: I think nobody's gonna buy that thoughts. I agree with

434
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 1: pretty much everything you just said. Yeah, I agree. I

435
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 1: think it would be concentrated in just a few names.

436
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,479
Speaker 1: I think the cover called the E T s are

437
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 1: a good example of these um of income ets because

438
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: people still want their exposure the equities also want a

439
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: bit of income. I think you can also look at

440
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 1: UM the defined outcome ets like innovator ets, where they're

441
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: talking to the same um population which you addressed UM

442
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: the boomers. They still want exposure to the overall equity markets,

443
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: but they are afraid of it collapsing, so they have

444
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 1: a cap. They have a buffer on the bottom line.

445
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: What you're giving up though is a bit on the upside.

446
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,959
Speaker 1: But they're okay because they've already invest their money over

447
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: their lifetime, so they have all these game A minutes

448
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: want to lose anymore. Yeah, we don't see these products

449
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 1: in Europe, so that's why I'm still calling for fixed

450
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 1: income products to grow in Europe as a proxy for

451
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 1: income genitoring ETFs like we have in the States, and

452
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: a lot of what we just mentioned requires derivatives, which

453
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: is a lot of people think of it's a dirty word.

454
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 1: But what we're finding the e t F rule made

455
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: it a little more liberal to use derivatives, and what

456
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: we're finding is it it's not being used to go

457
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: crazy with levera journey thing, but it's used to sculpt outcomes.

458
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: Derivatives can really fine tune the outcome of of a strategy,

459
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 1: and they're being used brilliantly by many companies UM, and

460
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 1: I think will continue to see that where UM people

461
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 1: will package up the derivatives plus some equities in a

462
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: certain way to get you exactly what you want in

463
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: an outcome. Rebecca, welcome back to trillions. I know that

464
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: China is on your mind, tell us more so. The

465
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 1: reason why China is on my mind is I expect

466
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: China to rebound in. To put it into perspective for everyone,

467
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 1: China has been in lockdown for almost three years now,

468
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: and so what this means is people have not been

469
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 1: able to leave their house. If they got COVID, they

470
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 1: would be sent to a mass quarantine center. So think

471
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: of squid game, big concentration camp with people, and people

472
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 1: have not been able to move freely between the cities,

473
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: and so at one point all the cities were locked

474
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: down where people couldn't even leave their house for an

475
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 1: extended period and the government was sending food to all

476
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 1: of the homes. And so all of a sudden, after

477
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 1: three years of being locked down, people are now reopening

478
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: and allowed to move again. So this is going to

479
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: be a huge impact on the economy. As people begin

480
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: to shop more, leave their house, they will be traveling

481
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 1: amongst the cities, and so this will have huge impact

482
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 1: on the economy. To put into perspective, China is the

483
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,959
Speaker 1: second largest assets under management for ETS in Asia Pacific.

484
00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 1: They own roughly of the market, and so as China

485
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: reopens next year, we're going to see a huge impact

486
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 1: not only on the economy but also on E T

487
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: S and so tech outlook is looking positive, Ali Baba

488
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: ton Cent. You know, we expect the consumer sectors and

489
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: the consumer discretion to be one of the areas that

490
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: are going to grow significantly. If there were a ticker

491
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: that I wanted to watch, what's the one to watch?

492
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: So tickers in China are random numbers that Eric always

493
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 1: makes fun of. Yeah, look, listen, I have the pounds

494
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: on this. As you go from the US to China,

495
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: like across Europe, it goes from unbridled capitalism to pure communism.

496
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: It goes from like dude and like hack and move right,

497
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: and then in Europe they're like there's a couple words,

498
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: but a lot of times look like license plates. It's

499
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: like l G nine. And then you get to China

500
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: the tickers like five one, five, three four. Then the

501
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 1: next stickers five one, yeah, and it's like, oh my god, like,

502
00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: how do you even know what's going on with the

503
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: tickers there? It's I don't even know what's happening. I

504
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 1: look at these tickers and it's so confusing. It defeats

505
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: the purpose of a ticker. Well, we just had a

506
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: new one launched here in Europe with ticker f you

507
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: w fifty, So we're not we're not too bad, but

508
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 1: I guarantee that was by accident plate that went bad.

509
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: So in Hong Kong, you can make a charitable donation

510
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: to the Hong Kong Exchange and then you can select

511
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 1: the random numbers and so instead of having you know,

512
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: you have like I said, you can tickers. Yeah, So,

513
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: for instance, in Hong Kong, a lucky numbers eight. So

514
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: if you want the number eight as part of your ticker,

515
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,479
Speaker 1: you can make a charitable donation of one million Hong

516
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 1: Kong dollars and you'll be able to select your tickers

517
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 1: from a list. But so for instance, for instance, in Asia,

518
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: people don't like the number four, and so if your

519
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 1: ticker has the number four in it, no one's going

520
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,479
Speaker 1: to buy it because it's unlucky. So we did make

521
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: sure you get the right numbers communism versus thanctually. Okay, James,

522
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: you're another one for us. Yeah. Um, we did do

523
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: just an entire episode and essentially this, But I'm gonna

524
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: have a big spot bitcoin etf um, Eric and I

525
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: are on the record last year calling for likely Q

526
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: three Q four that we get a spot bitcoin E

527
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 1: tf um didn't happen. Well, no, no coming, so we

528
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: we we aren't wrong yet, but we could. This could

529
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: be on the things that we got wrong list. And

530
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 1: my my call is that unless we get some sort

531
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: of legislation from Congress, there's some giving the SEC more

532
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: regulatory power, or the SEC just starts taking regulatory power

533
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: that they might not have. Right now, we're not going

534
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,360
Speaker 1: to see a spot bitcoin EDF. So last year coming

535
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 1: to my side, yeah, I think it's what this is. Well,

536
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 1: there's a there was a lot of talk in Congress.

537
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: There was multiple bills for stable coins, for different ways

538
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 1: to do regulate crypto, and we just everything is kind

539
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 1: of the talking is kind of slowed. There were also

540
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: a few different areas that honest actually f t X

541
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 1: was doing some things that could have helped make more

542
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: regulated spot markets. Um so unless theoretically, if an exchange

543
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 1: voluntarily comes under and registers as an exchange with SEC,

544
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 1: maybe then we could get one. But I think we're

545
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: gonna need an Act of Congress literally before we get

546
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: a spot bitcoin et F. And now just to pivot

547
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: to that because on in our database we consider cryptocurrency

548
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 1: and alternative, even though you could argue it's too correlated

549
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 1: for that, but anyway, it's an alternative alternatives in general.

550
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: Though obviously had this big year last year DBMF broke out.

551
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: It was like sort of ARC, not as big, but

552
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: an indie star that broke out billion dollars. I know

553
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: you have your bullish on alts. I am too. I

554
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: don't know, they'll be like as big as I don't know.

555
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: I'm bullish relative to the sercise. Now they have five billion,

556
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: I can easily see them getting billion. I don't know

557
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: about three billion. What do you think Let's talk about

558
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: the alt side and why would that? Why do you

559
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 1: think alts will grow? Yeah, so I'm aent with you.

560
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: The problem with alts is like, right now, the market

561
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: has already tanked a decent amount. Right, So the benefit

562
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: of altars you have a diversified portfolio. So if you

563
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: were invested in them and then the market went down,

564
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: you had an alt that was actually uncorrelated to fixed

565
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 1: income or equas, like as we talked about DBMF, which

566
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 1: is now basically a billion dollar fund because it did

567
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: exactly that. UM. So these altar are the whole point

568
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: of them is the verse fire your portfolio, maybe reduce

569
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: volatility and give you similar returns or higher risk adjusted

570
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 1: performance like a sharp ratio type type of situation. But

571
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: for the most part, investors still aren't biting as much

572
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: as like we expect that. I feel like every year

573
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: we're like, Okay, this could be the year for alternatives

574
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 1: UM and it just hasn't been Now, granted, there was

575
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: a very good year last year for alternatives UM so

576
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: hopefully maybe advisors are taking more note. The other thing

577
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 1: is the alternatives they were often very highly priced and

578
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 1: didn't actually do what they said they were going to do.

579
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: Where now we've seen some of these managed futures et F,

580
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: some of these other alternative products that are actually doing

581
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: what they said they're gonna do, and they're not charging

582
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: a hundred basis points or whatever it may be. And

583
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: even if they are charging that, some of them are

584
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: doing what they said they're gonna do, giving you good

585
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: sharp sharp ratio performance. And you're getting more people from

586
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: the actual hedge fund world coming in and doing their

587
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: thing in the E t F rapp or not an

588
00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: E t F company doing a half alt kind of thing. Yeah, exactly. Yeah,

589
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: I still think that's gonna be a tough story to sell.

590
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: I mean, DBMF, they they've they've filed UM or I

591
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 1: think about the launch a mutual fund here based on

592
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: the same strategy here in europs are based on the

593
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 1: same strategy. But it's gonna be a tough story. I mean,

594
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: I remember when else on the product side. UM two,

595
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: you're you're either selling um um product in one or

596
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: two sent since the cash woman's attention, their imagination vers

597
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: just having to spend you know, a good ten to

598
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes. I mean, just from a time resource perspective,

599
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: as well as the the salesperson's time, it's it's it's

600
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: gonna be a hard sell. That said, the sixty and

601
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: the forty went down this year. Everybody thought the forty

602
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: was supposed to offset the sixty. If that continues, if

603
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: the sixty and the forty continue to be correlated, I

604
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: think all value goes up because then it's at least

605
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: something that would offset the sixty and the forty. That

606
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: I think is why I would slightly disagree with what

607
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: you're saying. But that said, I still all this will

608
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: be very small relative to big beta and and in

609
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: our cat in the way we look at things in

610
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: our systems. Some of stuff Henry was talking about, like

611
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: cover called income ets. A lot of people would consider

612
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: those also to be like alternatives because they tend to

613
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: smooth out the returns. You lose some of the upside,

614
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 1: but you also limit your downside when you do stuff

615
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: like that. So if you include those into the alternatives,

616
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: the space is much bigger. But the true hedge fund

617
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 1: type strategies, Um, there's only a handful that are of

618
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: of any significant size. And I'm not sure I'm gonna

619
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: we need to see more people come into space. Maybe

620
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: fees get lower. Then advisors who really are looking for

621
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: some alternative to just the sixty, maybe they'll come in.

622
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 1: But I'm with you, I don't think we get to

623
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: a couple hundred billion in assets. I don't think that's

624
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: going to happen in this space. About two years ago,

625
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: I said, we need a rock star like Cliff Fastness

626
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: or a Vanguard. Vanguard does have a market neutral mutual

627
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: fund that charges like twenty basis points. Needs to get

628
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: rock star or cheap like. It needs to be Cathy

629
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: Wood or vanguarded that category. And it's yet to really

630
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: have that. Andrew Beers turning into a little bit of

631
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: a rock star, but he came from the indie world.

632
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: But a Cliff Fastness or a Vanger coming in would

633
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: definitely jump start flows. I think anything else, Yeah, just

634
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: one last thing that I just keep thinking about and

635
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: comes up and and I can't rid of it. Is

636
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: this the cultural wars have like came into the E

637
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: T f LD like we used to just do our

638
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: E t F thing, and I think politics will be

639
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 1: over here. But after E s G came out and

640
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: then the the E s G reaction and now you've

641
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: got you know, strive and anti E s G and um,

642
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 1: it's really brought the political realm into the E t

643
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: F realm. And then the voting right Florida just said

644
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: they're not going to invest in black Rock because they

645
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: talk E s G too much. And that's become an

646
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: interesting part of our job now is trying to, I

647
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: don't know, walk around this without taking making political stances

648
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 1: and trying to treat both sides fairly. But I don't know.

649
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 1: It's a little unfortunate, but it is here to stay.

650
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,959
Speaker 1: I don't see this going away. I think everything has

651
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:43,239
Speaker 1: become political politicized, including E t F somehow. I mean,

652
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: aside from the political thing, I think anything that could

653
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: be E t F I will try to be E

654
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 1: t F. I s whether it's I think it's just

655
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 1: they've made it so easy, so I think things might

656
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: get a little crazy, not just outside the political But

657
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: that is a good point that the more the core

658
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: of the portfolio gets boring and the more passive was Ironically,

659
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 1: the crazier E t F launches are going to get

660
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: because they're going to compete for that of your portfolio

661
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: where you're looking for fun stuff, vaultile stuff, narratives just

662
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: foam cure your fomo a little bit. So ironically passives

663
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: rise had less to crazier E t F launches. Yeah,

664
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: I mean Will Hershey over Aroundhill is a good example

665
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: of this. He's launching a suite of products that are

666
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: basically taking advantage of the same way that we have

667
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: single stock ETFs, except he's doing like very small, like

668
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: concentrated like ten stock or less portfolios on certain themes.

669
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 1: So again making that way more concentrated active side of

670
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: your portfolio. And I'm with them both. I think that's

671
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: exactly what's gonna happen. Yeah, we're bullish. Hot sauce. Hot

672
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: sauce is here to stay. It might get hotter hot

673
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 1: the hot sauce will get hotter. James, Henry, Rebecca Eric

674
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us on Trillions. Thanks for having me.

675
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: It's great to be on the show. Thanks for having me.

676
00:32:53,520 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: Look forward to seeing everyone in Thanks for listening to Trillions.

677
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: Until next time you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal,

678
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, Apple podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else you

679
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: like to listen. We'd love to hear from you. We're

680
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: on Twitter, I'm at Joel Webber Show. He's at Eric Falcuna's.

681
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: This episode of Trillions was produced by Magnus DRIs Bye