WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: June 15, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:04.439 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:08.320 day Break for Wednesday, June fifty two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.800 the ECB holds an emergency meeting to discuss market conditions. 0:00:12.920 --> 0:00:15.160 The debate heats up on whether the Fed will hike 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:18.319 fifty or seventy five basis points today. Let sell off 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:22.079 in crypto continues as bitcoin drops to twenty thousand and 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:26.239 President Biden takes same at oil refiners record profits. Gas 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:28.840 bump prices in the New York metro area had a 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:31.840 fresh record plus. But look at Trump backed candidates in 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:35.519 the latest GOP primaries. I'm Michael blah More ahead, I'm 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.040 John Stash and sports shutout wins at home for both 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:40.240 the Mets and Yankees, a near no hither in St. 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:45.360 Louis the Stanley Cup. Parnel begins. That's all s traded 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:49.320 ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:54.160 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:59.200 Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Sirius XM one nineteen and 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.080 around the world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:08.760 by the Bloomberg Business App. Good morning. I'm John Tucker, 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.760 I'm Nathan Hagar. Futures are on the rise this morning 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:13.560 or coming up to six oh one on Wall Street, 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:15.640 and we checked the markets every fifteen minutes during the 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.720 training day. On Bloomberg. Sp Future is up twenty points. 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.440 Staff futures up a hundred forty Nastact futures hired by 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.280 eighty two points. The docks in Germany up one up 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:26.440 one point two percent, when the cat in Paris is 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:30.040 hired by one percent ten Your treasury is up thirty seconds. 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:31.959 The yield three point three eight percent, yield on the 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:35.319 two year three point three two percent. The euro right 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:38.640 now at one point zero four nine two against the dollar. 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:41.200 John and Nathan, we begin at Europe, where it's all 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:45.040 about the European Central Bank, the ECB's governing Council holding 0:01:45.080 --> 0:01:49.520 an impromptu meeting to quote discussed current market conditions. Let's 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:53.120 get more from Bloomberg Markets Live, Edler Locker, Roach Kelly. 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.840 DCB meeting is more based about happening markets at home 0:01:56.880 --> 0:01:59.680 to howl, I'm spreads of boidened, how it neils have 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:01.920 moved out and what the market actually the last three 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:03.760 or four days has been I'm not going to sure 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:05.400 it's going to come over use. I think it's strange 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:08.240 that the space hold interactional meeting before the FED decision 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:09.880 plume they don't know what the Fed dicisition is good 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:11.880 to beat themselves, but the factor having to be in 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.000 at all. Jerry Market saying that is at least somewhat 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:17.640 positive for euro Asset, Bloomberg's Locker and Roach Kelly's Italian 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.400 bonds have surged on the notes of the unscheduled meeting. 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:24.480 ECB officials may decide to reinvest bond purchases conducted under 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:28.600 the bank's Pandemic Emergency Program. Other measures could be considered 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:32.240 as well. The meeting expanded at last about two hours. Well. 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:35.840 As this meeting continues, John, we are awaiting a highly 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:40.080 anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Question there is how much J. 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.600 Powell and Company high grades. Michael McKee has more from 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.880 our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. The newmarket consensus is the 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.720 FED will raise the benchmark US lending rate by seventy 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:55.120 five basis points, the biggest increase since nine That raises 0:02:55.160 --> 0:02:58.359 the question of what next markets have already priced in 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.720 another seventy five basis point move in July. Investors will 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:04.640 look to the dot plot rate forecast and Chairman j 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.680 Pal's news conference for a ratification of that bet. A 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.120 new median forecast for unemployment of proxy for growth may 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.040 suggest whether the central bankers still think they can bring 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:18.959 down inflation without causing a recession. Michael McKee Bloomberg, Gay break, 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:21.680 all right, thanks Mike? Will it be fifty or seventy 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:25.040 five basis points summer? Calling for more? Pershing Square founder 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:27.959 Bill Ackman's is how the basis point hyke? Who would 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:32.080 be better? The story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. Ackman says 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:35.480 not just today, but in July and thereafter. Instead of 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:39.120 the seventy five basis point hike that some economists are expecting, 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.000 he said the central bank has allowed inflation to quote 0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:45.520 get out of control and calls for aggressive action that 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:50.280 would help restore market confidence. Writing on Twitter, Ackman said, quote, 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.600 the sooner the Federal Reserve can get to a terminal 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:57.760 FF rate and thereafter can begin to ease, the sooner 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:02.240 the markets can recover. In New York Charlie pe Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.320 al right, Charlie thanks. Jeffrey Gunlocks taking an even more 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.600 aggressive stance than Bill Ackman. The Double Line Capital CEO 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:10.640 says the Fed should raise its target interest right to 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.320 three percent today. That would be a two hundred basis 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:16.680 point hike. But markets are still firmly pricing in seventy 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:19.760 and stay tuned for a complete coverage of this critical 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:23.359 fin decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance that 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:26.039 is coming up at one on Wall Street time on Booth, 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.640 Bloomberg Radio and television. Head of that decision, we get 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:32.880 the main reading on retail sales. The economy is forecast 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.240 a game of just one tenth of a percent. Well, 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.600 as we mentioned, John Us futures are hired to start 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.520 this morning. Still, the SMP closed down yesterday for a 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.679 fifth straight session. That's its longest flight since January. Mark Lassie, 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.359 CEO of Avenue Capital Management and co owner of the 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.600 Milwaukee Bucks, says week economic sentiment continues to weigh on 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:53.919 this market. Everybody knows where either getting into a recession 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:57.320 or it's going to be close to a recession. So um, 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:01.400 I don't think there's a lot more negative news that's 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.039 gonna come out. You know, the question really is going 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:07.360 to be? How long is the recession? Is it three months? 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.359 Is at six months? Is it a year? I have 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:11.839 a new Capital CEO Mark Lazarie says he thinks the 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:15.600 upcoming recession will be short. Well, perhaps no sector has 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.760 suffered in the sell off as much as cryptocurrencies, and 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:22.200 Bitcoin is lower again this morning as it approaches the 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.960 twenty thousand level. Let's get the latest life from Bloomberg's 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:29.119 Ready Too Young Real, Good morning, Good morning John. Cryptocurrencies 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:33.320 have become emblematic of a flight from speculative assets strategies 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:36.039 that Glass notes say. The bear market for bitcoin has 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:40.200 entered its deepest and darkest phase. Crypto lenders Celsius froze 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:44.280 withdrawals on Monday. Coin Based announced widespread laidoffs on Tuesday, 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:46.880 and this all comes just a month after the collapse 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:50.920 of the terror USD stable coin royal crypto markets. Meantime, 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.040 Bill Gates is dismissing crypto projects like n f t 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.200 S as shams, saying they're quote based on the greater 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:00.599 fool theory. He spoke at a climate conference yesterday and 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:04.000 says he's neither long nor short. The asset class live 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:06.400 in New York I'm rened a young Bloomberg Daybreak. Now, 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:09.279 we need to thank you as crypto falls, oil prices 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.320 remain sky high, and the pain at the pump is palpable, 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:14.960 and President Biden is looking to ease the strain. We're 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.719 learning the Energy Department plans to sell up to forty 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:21.360 five million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Amy Morris 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:25.599 has more from our Bloomberg newsroom. In Washington, President Biden 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:30.080 told oil refiners that unprecedented profit margins are unacceptable. He's 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:34.080 calling for immediate action to improve capacity. He's ordered Energy 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:37.040 Secretary Jennifer Granhelm to hold an emergency meeting on the 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.200 subject in the coming days, and the administration will hold 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.240 talks with the National Petroleum Council. And he's calling on 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.960 companies to explain why they've cut capacity. More than a 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.159 million barrels a day of US oil refining capacity, about 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.920 five of the total, has been shut since the start 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:56.719 of the pandemic in Washington. I'm any Morris, Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.960 All right, thanks to me and NIMEX crude right now 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.160 out of dollars sixty seven of barrel at one seventeen 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:07.760 six and I head of today's FED meeting. The NASDAIC 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:11.320 futures right now up sixties six points SMP futures, they're 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:15.200 up seventeen at the down futures one hundred and sixteen 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:23.840 points higher. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak. That's now six 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.560 o seven on Wall Street. Let's bringing Michael Barne out 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.520 to find out what else is going on to New 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.520 York hand around the world, John, thank you very much. 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:35.000 US Representative Tom Rice of South Carolina has been outed 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:38.560 from Congress and his Republican primary after voting to impeach 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:42.640 Donald Trump over the January sixth insurrection. Rice, who only 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:47.360 got was defeated Tuesday by Trump back State Congressman Russell Fry, 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:52.920 who received. Meanwhile, Representative Nancy Mace cleared the fifty percent 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:57.040 threshold to avoid a runoff against Trump backed Katie Errington. 0:07:57.560 --> 0:08:00.320 New York City Mayor Eric Adams is going to Doris 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.760 Governor Kathey Hocold in the New York governor's race. Hocal's 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:07.720 campaign and Adam's political advice. You're confirmed that Adams will 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.160 make the announcement today and a joint appearance with the 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:14.160 Democratic governor in New York City. Adams endorsement comes as 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:18.240 Hocal has pledged tougher action on gun crimes, including after 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:21.600 the mass shooting in her hometown of Buffalo. Meanwhile, a 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.400 month after the shooting at the Top supermarket store, survivors, 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:27.880 their families and others gathered at the scene to mark 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:32.120 the somber event. Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown words will never 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:38.720 convey the heartbreak and pain the senseless tragedy has caused. 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.960 Mayor Brown says. The shootings left ten people dead and 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:45.320 three injured. Police in Suffolk County, New York, say at 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:49.400 least fourteen school children were injured when an inflatable slide 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:52.200 tipped over at a Long Island park. Some of the 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:54.520 six and seven year olds were taken to the hospital, 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:56.959 one with a broken leg. This seven year old is 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:02.240 glad he wasn't hurt. There's people in the yeah, and 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:06.559 didn't the thing over and some people got her and 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.360 they went to the hospital. The statement from the Yan 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:13.000 Dan's School District says the slide deflated while the kids 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:16.040 were on it. Two police officers in El Monte, California, 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:18.360 died in the line of duty. Authorities saying the two 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.040 men were responding to a possible stabbing at a motel 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:24.440 and were fired upon by the suspect. El Monty, Mayor 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:27.600 Jessica and Kna. These men were dedicated to their careers 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:32.679 and even more so as sons, husbands and fathers. Please 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.880 keep their families in your prayers. Mayoron Kona says the 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:39.120 suspect was also killed. Gas prices in the New York 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.800 metro area I hit a fresh record according to Triple A. 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:44.760 Prices rose to our record five twenty one a gallon 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.880 overnight for the area and five fifty from Manhattan Global 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:51.360 News twenty four hours a day on air and on 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:55.440 Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than journalists and analysts more 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:59.480 than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, John, Michael, 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:06.280 thank you. It's six ten wol Street Tamp. It's time 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:09.600 for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Just Johnstown Show. Thanks John. 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.640 Yankees and Mets. Two best records in baseball, both at home, 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.640 both one with shutouts, and the Brons Garrett Cole's out 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:17.720 in a whole lot better than one last week in Minnesota, 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:19.920 when he allowed homebouns to the Twins first three batters 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.320 and give up five overall, Cole worked out of a 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.960 basis load of jam sixth inning that ended his night, 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.080 preserved to shut out Yanks top Tampa Bay to not thing. 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:30.320 Cole is six and one, and Clay Holmes got the 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:34.480 same twenty seven straight appearances where Holmes is not allowed 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:37.040 to run a city field was Chris Fassett eight scoreless, 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.040 sitting is allowed just three hits of four nothing met 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:41.680 went over in Milwaukee, two runs driven in by Pete 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:44.680 Alonzo leads the National League with fifty nine RBIs and St. 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.000 Louis the Cardinals, Miles Nicholas had nowhere with two outs, 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.520 two strikes, ninth inning double by the Pirates. Cal Mitchell 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:54.360 on Nicholas is a hundred and twenty ninth pitch most 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:56.559 of the majors this season. They dropped puck on the 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:59.120 Stanley Cup Final tonight in Denver. It's Tampa Bay lightning 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:01.600 off the win over the Angels c q A. Stanley 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.560 kept three peak game one with Colorado, who's twelve and 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.760 two in the playoffs. Bruce Cassidy fired by the Bruins. 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:10.439 He's the new coach of the Vegas Golden Night because 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:14.400 Shaun Watson, formerly with Houston, now massive contractor quarterback to 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:18.000 Cleveland Browns, and he's also facing twenty four accusations of 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:21.520 sexual misconduct. Watson met the media in PLA. You know, 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:25.000 I've been honest and I've been truthful about my stance. Um, 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:27.079 and that's you know. I've never forced anyone, I never 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:31.440 assaulted anyone. So um, that's what you know. I've been 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.680 saying it from the beginning and I'm going to continue 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:35.960 to do that and until all the facts come out 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:38.920 on the legal sidefl has been investigating the matter, but 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:42.040 still no word on a possible suspension. John Stash Atward 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.800 bloom Bird Sports John, all right, thanks, John had ahead 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:46.720 of the cashow up on Wall Street a hand of 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:50.000 the FED meeting today. The down futures of one hundred 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:52.600 twenty six points arise at four tens of a percent. 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.920 The snp eat many futures, they're up nineteen right now, 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:58.240 that's up half a percent, and the night was sad 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:01.760 futures seventy two point higher, up six tenths of percent. 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:06.880 You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak. Day Break brought to you 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:09.920 by Hofstra Universities Frank G. S Are School of Business, 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:14.199 Top Rank Online mba program with a real world foundation 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:22.520 or more at Hofstra dot a, bu slash Go Grand Markets, 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.679 headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:29.120 Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business apt and at Bloomberg 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:38.480 Quick Tape. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash. I'm Nathan Hagar. 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.960 Futures are on the rise, along with stocks in Europe. 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:43.880 As policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic grapple with 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:47.760 soaring inflation, slowing growth, and volatile markets. We check the 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:50.199 numbers for you every fifteen minutes during the training day 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.600 on Bloomberg SMP futures are up seventeen points down futures 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.440 up a hundred twelve dance Stack futures higher by seventy 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.040 one points. Germany stacks at one point one percent. The 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.319 cack in Paris is higher by nine tenths of one percent. 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.199 The tenure Treasury is up twenty five thirty seconds with 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:06.280 a yell three point three seven percent yield on the 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.320 two year three point three one percent. Nim X screws 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:11.280 down one point six percent, down a dollar eighty four, 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.280 a hundred seventeen dollars eleven cents of barrel comax called 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.760 of seven tenths percent or thirteen dollars twenty cents. At 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:20.120 eighteen twenty six seventy announced the euro one point zero 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:22.199 four seven eight against the dollar. The end one thirty 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.240 four point four zero bitcoin right now trading around twenty 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.880 four hundred fifty dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. And 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:30.920 now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.480 around the world. Michael Nathan, thank you kindly. US Representative 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.160 Tom Rice of South Carolina has been now stick in 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.600 Congress and is a Republican primary after voting to impeach 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:44.240 Donald Trump over the January sixth insurrection. The five term 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:47.880 congressman was defeated Tuesday by state Representative Russell Fry, who 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.360 was endorsed by Trump. Fry received fifty one percent. Well 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:55.880 Ryce got Britney Grinder's attention in Russia was extended until 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.240 July seco. The w NBA player is being held on 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:04.240 charges of rug smuggling. The baseball scores the Yankees and 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:08.040 Mets one, Red Sox beat the A six one Orioles 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.640 and Giants were also winners. The Nationals lost Global News 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.280 twenty four hours a day on here and on Bloomberg 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:17.200 Quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.600 and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael barn 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.720 This is Bloomberg, John, Michael, thank you. It is six 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.480 twenty on Wall Street. We are live in the Bloomberg 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:30.040 interranton Broker studios and busy is Bloomberg Daybreak. Wall Street 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.120 firms expect the Federal Open Market Committee today to raise 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:36.680 rates seventy five basis points. The Fed's gonna announce the 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.080 decision published fresh forecast at two pm of Wall Street time. 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:42.920 That'll be followed by a news conference by Chairman Jerome 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.080 Powell and Bloomberg's Mike McKee. He's gonna be there and 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.840 he'll try to stump the chairman. Today. Mike joins us 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.360 now from Washington. Thanks you for being with us. You know, 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:56.000 I'll start off with Europe, the European Central Bank, the 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:59.640 policy makers there, Mike. They've managed to do the impossible, 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:06.000 making FED policy look simple. Yes. Unfortunately for Christine Le 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:08.840 guard Um it is much more difficult for her because 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:11.960 she has nineteen countries in the Eurozone and at this 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:17.400 point Um they are all in different economic circumstances, particularly 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.880 Italy and the idea that the ECB had to raise 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.640 rates quickly to get a handle on inflation, which is 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.400 over eight percent there as well. UH lead to a 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:30.120 blow out in Italian spreads. In particular, Italy the world's 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:34.120 fourth largest bond market, and they also have a significant 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:39.000 UM amount of their own debt and so UM trying 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:43.640 to keep that spread from from widening even further. They're 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:45.880 trying to figure out what to do. Okay, they might 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:51.520 even head back to pandemic policy with the extraordinary stimulus. UH, 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:56.360 the United States is nowhere near that, right, No, we're not. UM. 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:00.560 There's a belief out there that perhaps we might see 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.200 the Fed have to start cutting rates in two thousand 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.040 twenty three if we show signs of going into a recession, 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.080 But between now and then, there's nothing standing in the 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:13.080 Fed's way at the moment. We'll see the law of 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.760 unintended consequences keeps working here. And we did see some 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.440 liquidity problems developing in the short end of the market 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.400 earlier this week. We'll see if those can be contained 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.840 and what the market reaction is if the Fed indeed 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:29.680 follows up with seventy five today and then gives us 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.760 a hawk, a shout look for the future. Okay, today 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:35.520 it is a case of go big or go home 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:39.880 for the Fed. Right, yeah, excuse me. They've pretty much 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:45.160 locked themselves in at this point by the Monday articles 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.520 in the in the press. Um everybody took as a 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:52.760 hint by the Fed to the markets that they were 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:55.720 going to do seventy five instead of fifty. And now 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.560 the markets of price for seventy five, not just this time, 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.680 but for July as well. So if they didn't do it, 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:07.080 if they did fifty, that might cause some market disturbances. 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.880 It could be that markets shrug if they say fifty 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.720 but next time. But it's just easier for them to 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.080 follow through with what they they have led the markets 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.560 to believe is going to happen. Okay, they delivered their 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:23.840 forecast as well today. I assume what what is that 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.520 going to show us in terms of where they end up? 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.960 What the the what is it called the terminal rate? Yeah, 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:31.840 the terminal rate, which is not the neutral rate. The 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.360 terminal rate is basically what we're talking about in terms 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.680 of how high do they have to go to bring 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:42.000 down inflation, And they were looking at something between two 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:43.760 and a half and three percent. Now the market says 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:45.960 you gotta go have to go well over three percent. 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.440 We'll see what the FED ratifies when the dot plot 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.560 comes out. We'll see what the neutral rate is, the 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:58.480 long run rate which neither stimulates inflation or um retards growth, 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:02.159 and that they've said is in the two and a 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.880 half percent range. Last time they said two point four. 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:06.920 We'll see if they move that up a little, if 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.879 the economy has changed in such a way that we 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:14.320 need a higher neutral rate to keep the economy on 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:16.719 a level course. And then the final thing people are 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:18.600 gonna really want to look at is the forecast for 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:22.439 unemployment because that will be essentially what the FED is 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:26.159 going to be telling us about the economy going forward 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:29.360 and whether or not we have to worry about a recession. Now, 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.159 they aren't going to say the word recession ever, but 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.720 if they think that unemployment will rise significantly, Uh, and 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:38.600 I wouldn't bet on that, but if they did, then 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:40.800 that would be a worrying sign to the markets. Are 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:44.120 you still honing your question for the chairman at the 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:47.800 press conference that follows the decision tonight? Yeah, well you 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.880 have to keep honing till the last minute because things 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:54.520 keep changing around. Um I had to laugh John this morning. 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.600 Kitchuks from Sucken, whom we all know well, have posed 0:18:57.600 --> 0:18:59.639 a very interesting question. He said, are the gods putting 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:03.160 central anchors back in their place? Now that the Fed 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.919 is being forced to do seventy five and Christine Leguard 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.000 has to hold an extraordinary meeting of the e c 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:14.720 B H Maybe, uh, maybe the fates are laughing. Don't 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.240 get too arrogant as a central bank policy maker. I 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:22.000 guess it's the message here from a kid. Mike McKee appreciated, 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:25.600 and again the Federal Open Market Committee expected to raise 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:29.200 at least the market expectation of seventy five basis points today, 0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:33.560 the Fed announcing a decision, publishing fresh forecast at two 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:35.920 pm Wall Street time, and of course you can join 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:41.240 Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio will have live continuing coverage. 0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:44.960 You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak and ahead of the FED decision, 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.359 ahead of the cash open on Wall Street, futures in 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.159 the green for now the now futures of one hundred 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.240 and six points. That's a rise of four tenths of 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:56.280 a percent smp E many futures seventeen points higher and 0:19:56.440 --> 0:20:00.080 the nastatic futures of seventy one points. Your listen in 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:08.119 too Bloomberg Daybreak. Daybreak brought to you by the Jewish 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:10.880 Communal Thought and j CPS Donor Advised FA the smart 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:13.960 choice to manage your philanthropy, especially in times of crisis, 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:18.320 make you're giving impactful visit Chase f n Y dot org. 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:26.680 Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. 0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:31.480 Bloomberg E Living Freedom to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:35.000 Bloomberg one O six one does San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.160 sixty to the Country, Serious XM to the one nine team, 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.440 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:51.120 Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's six thirty 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:54.399 on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm John Tucker, I'm Nathan Hager. 0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:56.800 We're about three hours away from the open of US trading. 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:58.480 Time for the five things you need to know to 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:00.560 start your day, Brought to you by I B k 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:04.000 R Investment Advisors switched to Interactive Brokers for lowest costs, 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:07.439 global training and turn key custody solutions. No ticket charges 0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:09.800 and no conflicts of your interests at i b k 0:21:10.000 --> 0:21:13.280 R dot com slash r i A first, the European 0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:15.960 Central Bank President Christine Legarde and her colleagues on the 0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:20.080 Governing Council are holding an emergency meeting to discuss market conditions. 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:23.399 We caught up with the Finance commission or Married McGinnis 0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:26.160 ahead of the meeting. The ECB is doing its job, 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:29.080 so I think that's important. I'm not going to second. Yes, 0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:33.080 the conversations will take place at this meeting, but clearly 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:35.960 since the beginning of this year, and particularly since the invasion, 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:39.560 the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine, there is uncertainty 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.600 in markets. The Youth Finance Commissioner, Married McGinnis says the 0:21:42.600 --> 0:21:44.960 meeting should last about two hours and the easy B 0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:48.119 gathering comes on the same day the FED makes interest 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:50.919 rate decision. They question now is how much will have 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:54.000 FED hike. Let's get the tales from Bloomberg's Vinnydale Judais. 0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:57.600 Most economists anticipate another half point rate in priest today, 0:21:57.800 --> 0:22:01.080 lifting the FEDS target range between one point to five 0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:04.240 percent and one point five percent, But something say they 0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:07.200 wouldn't be surprised if the Fed opts for something more 0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:11.320 a larger move and expense mark interest rate. Bloomberg Economics 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:14.280 says the FEDS dot plot, which traces the likely path 0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:17.320 the US interest rates, could move to three percent or 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:21.200 a bit higher next year. NNA Bloomberg Day, all right, thanks, 0:22:21.560 --> 0:22:25.199 and while economists predict fifty basis point hike, markets are 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:28.879 now pricing in a seventy five point increase. Futures are 0:22:28.960 --> 0:22:30.800 higher ahead of the FED decision. John, But it's a 0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:34.679 different story for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoins lower again right now at 0:22:34.680 --> 0:22:37.719 about twenty five dollars. Let's get the latest line from 0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:41.600