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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guess. Chris Campbell is Chief Policy

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Speaker 1: Strategistic Crawl and fellow at CRAL Institute, here to discuss

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Speaker 1: the latest on the markets, and we're all trying to

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Speaker 1: work out whether or not the US can avoid a

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Speaker 1: recession despite the aggressive fair tightening, and of course all

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Speaker 1: the uncertainties on the geo political front too. What's your view, Chris,

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Speaker 1: And I know you're looking very closely at the upcoming

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Speaker 1: CPI report exactly. Yeah, I think it's going to be

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Speaker 1: kind of the whole in Tolado, if you will. Um,

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Speaker 1: But I think, yeah, um, Further, what I do a crawl,

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Speaker 1: I was formerly Assistant Secretary of U. S. Treasury. You

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Speaker 1: have to work and work very closely with the Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve in that capacity. Uh, you know, like across the

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Speaker 1: board that there's just there's a lot of linking red lights,

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Speaker 1: and you lead in cerainly, a recession is very much,

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Speaker 1: um problem in fact probably in reality. Um. And so

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that it's time for businesses, perhaps

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Speaker 1: even past time for businesses and fat American families to

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Speaker 1: start preparing or you know what could be a period

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Speaker 1: of significant challenge. Yeah, A lot of companies I think

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Speaker 1: are adopting a similar strategy. Although today at your Denny

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Speaker 1: of your Denny Research was saying he sees six probability

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Speaker 1: of a soft landing. That seems to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit of an outlier, doesn't it It certainly isn't in

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Speaker 1: my case. Uh, Like, I think everything is resting on

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Speaker 1: the upcoming CPI data. If it shows that word a negative,

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Speaker 1: sorry neutral, or even an increase, I think it's certainly

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Speaker 1: emboldened the Federal reserved to continue rising interest rates, which

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Speaker 1: will absolutely, in my in my opinion, completely negate any

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Speaker 1: notion of a soft landing. Um, we're already seeing an

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Speaker 1: uptake and in jevous numbers. Um. And so you know,

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Speaker 1: you think that that you know, things may be trending

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Speaker 1: in the right direction. Some economists or suggesting that we

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Speaker 1: may have seen pee inflation. I don't believe that. But

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Speaker 1: if you know, I really do believe that this next

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Speaker 1: CPI data data is going to be extremely instructive to

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Speaker 1: how long perhaps and and uh and you know, if

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Speaker 1: there is even a notional possibility of a soft landing,

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Speaker 1: how much do the midterm elections change the landscape for investors?

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Speaker 1: You're saying you do expect to see a fair amount

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Speaker 1: of change in Washington. I do, you know, as I've

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Speaker 1: been involved in politics a long time, and one thing,

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Speaker 1: one thing I can say is that I look at, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, our former president Bill Clinton, and he was

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Speaker 1: famous for quoting and saying that the it's the economy

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Speaker 1: stupid when going into elections, and typically Americans tend to

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Speaker 1: vote on their pocketbook issues first and social issues fall

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Speaker 1: somewhere far behind. Pulling data suggest that's actually the case,

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Speaker 1: this in this in tomorrow's elections, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: following that trend, we would expect to see some significant

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Speaker 1: change in Washington. We're both houses right and now to

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Speaker 1: the House and Senator control by Democrats. So but you know,

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Speaker 1: focusing on the policies of what perhaps could happen, she

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Speaker 1: only will be you know, a significant amount of growth

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Speaker 1: buck but outside possibility of some uh some kind of

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Speaker 1: grand bargain, if you will, which would be on spending

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Speaker 1: and tax including perhaps some policy changes leadd to healthcare

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Speaker 1: and others, and so um, you know, I think that

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Speaker 1: that's what we're looking for, perhaps hopeful for that. There

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Speaker 1: you know, something as your your there's quite well no, well,

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Speaker 1: as you know, garment has to pay the bills, and

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Speaker 1: so we have to either you know, pass a budget

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Speaker 1: or not pass a budget. And also the debt ceiling

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Speaker 1: is also incredible UM force of will in DC that

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Speaker 1: could really force some actions um pushing the Democrats Republicans

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Speaker 1: together uh that you know, could could create something uh

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Speaker 1: I can of a grand budget bargain. Well, it's interesting,

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Speaker 1: but you make that point because today over at Morgan Stanley,

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Speaker 1: Mike Wilson was saying, if you accept the poll pointing

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Speaker 1: to Republicans regaining control of the House, that would lead

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Speaker 1: to lower treasury bond yields. And is that how you

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Speaker 1: would view um divided government and its impact on on markets. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I also think they'll just be you know, for right

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Speaker 1: or wrong, and there'll be a significant amount of oversight

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Speaker 1: um conducted by the specifically by the House, not only

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Speaker 1: the Department of Labor, Department Treasury, and the other departments

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Speaker 1: in the White House, but also the Federal Reserve and

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Speaker 1: federal um uh you know, fiscal uh regulators and so

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Speaker 1: just gonna be enormous amount of UM kind of pumping

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Speaker 1: of the brakes if you will. In d C. Is

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Speaker 1: is kind of as to turn toward responding to how

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Speaker 1: subpoenas um as you know, as you know, if if

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Speaker 1: in confect the House, I think I was taken by

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Speaker 1: by Republicans and so um, you know, I think that

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Speaker 1: the shift will be will be will be quite significant.

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Speaker 1: Um And I think that, but you know, there'll be

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Speaker 1: a pullback and spending it course, Republicans tend to favor

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Speaker 1: more fiscal constraint um and probably a relook of what

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Speaker 1: the what the bills have been passed or laws that

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Speaker 1: have been signed by present by here to date on

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Speaker 1: a prospective basis related to any kind of uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: major pieces of legislation that are happy past the next

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Speaker 1: two years. Chris, great to have your insights with us.

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Speaker 1: Chris Campbell is chief policy strategistic Kroll and fellow at

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Speaker 1: Croll Institute with us from Miami