1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,119 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 2: I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farroll and Lisa Abramowitz. 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 2: Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, 4 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 2: finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, 5 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 7 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 3: Join I guess right now around a table. Chris Harvey, 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 3: head an equity strategy at wels Farco. Good morning, Chris, 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 3: Good morning. Would you like to start with the old 10 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 3: price target or the newer price target? Because the old 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: price target is forty two hundred on the S and fee. 12 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 3: You more comfortable with that than the forty four to 13 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 3: twenty that you upgraded. 14 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 4: At See No, we're okay with the forty four hundred right. 15 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 4: So at the beginning of the year, what we said 16 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 4: is our base case is forty two. Forty four is 17 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 4: a soft landing. Doesn't look like we're going to have 18 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 4: a hard landing this year, so we just bumped it 19 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 4: up to forty four. The range that we think we're 20 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 4: in is that forty two to forty six. We think 21 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 4: we're going to spend more time at the top end 22 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 4: of the range. Right now, we're just taking some froth 23 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 4: on the market, repricing risk, and we're waiting to see 24 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 4: when the bond buyers start to show up. All in 25 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 4: yields are approaching that five to ninety level that we 26 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 4: saw back in October. CPI is down two hundred basis 27 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 4: points since then. It looks like the FED tightening cycle 28 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 4: is over close to being over. Buyers should start to materialize. 29 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 5: We'll see. 30 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 2: What I find interesting here is you're the single best 31 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: qualified person to ask this question too. In your ute, 32 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 2: you were out in the romance of fifty four degree 33 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 2: water clamming in Long Island to pay the bills. 34 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: I want to know, and this really works. 35 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: Where's your line in the sand with the equity markets 36 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 2: right now? Where's the tension point? That's the Harvey line 37 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: in the sand. 38 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 4: You know, Tom, I'm going to like all good equity stritus, 39 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 4: I'm going to shift in politicians. So I'm going to 40 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 4: shift because yesterday was really really interesting. It brought me 41 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 4: back to ninety nine two thousand. Because what happened interest 42 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 4: rates went higher. Old economy stock went down, New economy 43 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 4: stocks went up. That was so reminiscent of ninety nine 44 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 4: two thousand. So when you ask me for a line 45 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 4: in the sand, I can't give you a line in 46 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 4: the sand because the markets are not reacting. 47 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 2: There's a march distant from that where there was a 48 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: line in the sand for all of us, which is oops, 49 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 2: how close are we to Oops? 50 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 4: I don't think we're close to oops. What I think 51 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 4: is what we're saying is forty two hundred. That's the 52 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 4: technical level. We think that level holds. We have to 53 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 4: wait for We have to wait for rates to kind 54 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 4: of wash out here. There's been a lot of talk 55 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 4: about rates, but we think you should start to see 56 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 4: buyers showing up, especially those all in buyers, pretty soon. 57 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 4: The other thing we'd like to see is we'd like 58 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 4: to see something from one of the FED members saying 59 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 4: something about raids in the back end, because I don't know, 60 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 4: maybe maybe John. 61 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 5: Said this before. 62 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 4: If you look at what's happened to the tenure right 63 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 4: since the issue and since since jainat Yellen said hey, 64 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 4: we're going to need a lot more paper, real rates 65 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 4: have gone straight up and real rates are dried nomenal up. 66 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 4: This has not been about fundamentals, and so we may 67 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 4: have to wait until November to find out what the 68 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 4: needs are. In the short term, we find out November 69 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 4: that the needs aren't as bad, then we can find 70 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 4: we can find some ground, we can find some bidders. 71 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: But in the interim, maybe one of the FED members 72 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 4: comes out and says, something we'll see is. 73 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 6: The forty four to fifty call that you have predicated 74 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 6: on the idea of rates going down or just staying 75 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 6: where they are not moving as rapidly. 76 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 4: Really, just what we need is we need stability. Rates 77 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 4: don't need to go down from here. What we're seeing 78 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 4: is the underlying fundamentals are still good. We just got 79 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 4: through a period where we had a major conference season, 80 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 4: we had pre announcements, The pre announcements were pretty been 81 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 4: nign and so we think the underlying fundamentals are fined 82 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 4: for now. So we just need rates to stop because 83 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 4: if we don't know where the top and rates will be, 84 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 4: we don't know where the bottom of the equity market 85 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 4: is going to be. 86 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 3: That's important, Chris. You don't need them to go down, 87 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 3: you just need to stop going up. 88 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 7: That's right. 89 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 3: That's right, Are you seeing signs that take leadership is 90 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: stabilizing based on what you identified in yesterday session? 91 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 4: I think so. So Again, if we go back to yesterday, 92 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 4: what happened. You had a lot of defenses roll over. Right, 93 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 4: The defenses are rolling over because rates are going up, untilitates, utilities. 94 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 4: There's a lot of leverage and utilities, a lot of 95 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 4: leverage in staples. Where are people running to. They're running 96 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 4: to uber caps. Uber caps are now seen as that 97 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 4: safety trade. If uber caps go up, the market goes up. 98 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 3: So it's not AI or just older the above everything 99 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 3: to send the caps right now? 100 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 4: Really everything in uber caps. What we do is we 101 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: look at the RUSSOL top fifty, right, and you have AI. 102 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 4: But really what you're buying is you're buying at a 103 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 4: premium of ten to fifteen percent of the market, stable 104 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,919 Speaker 4: balance sheets, less volatility, better earnings with an AI kicker. 105 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 6: And that's not that when you say yesterday it was 106 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 6: buy the new economy, sell the old economy. I thought 107 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 6: that was really interesting, which raises a question, are we 108 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 6: going to just get more of the same in terms 109 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 6: of the dynamic of the Magnificent seven or a basket 110 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 6: of stocks that are leveraged to artificial intelligence and the 111 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 6: new tech gains really outperforming well everything else, not only 112 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 6: but loses value. 113 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 7: I think. 114 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 4: So that's been our call. So what we've been saying 115 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 4: is that we thought you'd have a broadening out of 116 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 4: the market in the summertime, in the spring, but that 117 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 4: was partly because people thought, Hey, the economy's not going 118 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 4: to be as bad as expected. What you need for 119 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 4: small caps in mid caps to do better is a 120 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 4: much stronger economy, and that's just not going to come 121 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 4: to fruition. So we do think it's going to be narrow. 122 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 4: We do think the uber caps are the ones that 123 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 4: that apper form well. 124 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 2: Lesa asked the question exactly where I was, But I 125 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 2: would narrow it even further to say technology new economy 126 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 2: that's profitable in displays free cash flow versus many of 127 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 2: them that do not out in the zeitgeist today Ala 128 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 2: Lori Kelvicina is a percent of Russell two thousand is 129 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 2: not profitable. 130 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: That's not Apple. 131 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 6: Just real quick here, as you're talking about this, we're 132 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 6: seeing tenure yields climb through introday high is going back 133 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 6: to two thousand and seven. At what point with yields, Chris, 134 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 6: do you rethink your assumption. 135 00:05:56,080 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 4: Well, let's talk big picture on yields. Right, So if 136 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 4: you look at real rates, and let's just say we 137 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 4: go back two decades, real rates, the high end is 138 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 4: about two percent. If you look at inflation expectations to 139 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 4: break evens, the high is about two and a half. 140 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:12,799 Speaker 4: You've gotten above that, but not for a sustained period 141 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 4: of time. I think maybe back in six oh seven, 142 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 4: So two and a half plus two as best I knows, 143 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 4: four and a half. We're in and around those levels. 144 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 4: Now we get to five, well, the components start to 145 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 4: then all of a sudden, what we've been seeing is 146 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 4: real rates going higher. Now the back ends a lot 147 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 4: more restrictive. That's going to weigh on the economy. Ultimately, 148 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 4: that's going to sow the seeds of bringing it back down. 149 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 4: We can get to these levels, but what's going to 150 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 4: happen is it's going to slow down the economy a 151 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 4: lot lot faster, and then things will come back down 152 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 4: once the economy slows down. 153 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 3: Hey, Chris, this was awesome. It's going to see you 154 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 3: basically of West Faco on the Secretary Market. 155 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,039 Speaker 2: This is the interview of the day for Global Wall 156 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 2: Street on where we are with bills, notes and bonds. 157 00:06:58,880 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: Robert Tip out of Berkeley. 158 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 2: They had a shingle out at First Boston a feusions 159 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 2: few years ago. Definitive at PGEUM fixed Income chief investment strategist, Robert, 160 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 2: Why is this moving bonds different than the other eighteen 161 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 2: you witnessed. 162 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 7: Well, there are similarities in their differences. 163 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 5: The thing that you don't see very often that we're 164 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 5: seeing right now is a change paradigm. We were in 165 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 5: an environment for a decade post financial crisis posts European 166 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 5: peripheral crisis, where the central tendency for the tenure Treasury 167 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 5: was two and for the Bund it was around zero. 168 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 5: And I think the Fed, you know, is looking at 169 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 5: the data coming across the transom. They're saying, we need 170 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 5: to be at five plus and we're comfortable up and 171 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 5: around the zip code. And I think that's because they 172 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 5: are looking at the data and the data is telling 173 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 5: them that, you know, four is the center of the 174 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 5: range and then need to have policy a little bit 175 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 5: at the restricted end of the range until they get 176 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 5: inflation down. And the SAME's going on in Europe where 177 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 5: they're going to be engineering a higher interest rate environment. 178 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 5: This is the end of the financial crisis, the end 179 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 5: of the peripheral crisis, and return to more normal level 180 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 5: of bond yields. 181 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: I look at what PGUM does crudential, your work with 182 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 2: all State for years, and it's about. 183 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: A shift in the actuarial assumption. 184 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 2: What is the new What does the next institutional pension 185 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 2: actuarial assumption look like? Is it two hundred beeps higher 186 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: from where we are now? 187 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I wouldn't worry about about them. 188 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 5: I don't think they ever fully adjusted to the low 189 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 5: interest rate environment. I don't think the equity markets adjusted. 190 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 5: But I think the financial community will be fine with 191 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 5: this level of interest rates, the financial institutions. I think investors, though, 192 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 5: in policymakers are getting dragged kicking and screaming to the 193 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 5: new environment, especially the investors. The biggest pitfall I would 194 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 5: say in investing is adaptive expectations. There's a lot of 195 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 5: distractions with the cyclical noise, the government shutdowns, each economic 196 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 5: region being in its own business cycle having differences from 197 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 5: the others. 198 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 7: It's very hard for people to wrap their arms around that. 199 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 5: And the FED readjusted they were one of the few 200 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 5: institutions that started to believe a two and a half 201 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 5: percent nominal FED funds rate was going to be the 202 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 5: neutral forever, and now they're, you know, on the precipice 203 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 5: is starting to. 204 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 7: Move back up. Basically. 205 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 5: You know, this environment was clear from early twenty twenty 206 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 5: two that we could be back in a four or 207 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 5: five six percent in straight environment. I think that's the 208 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 5: thing that people need to wrap their heads around. 209 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 7: Here. 210 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 6: What you just said there four or five six percent 211 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 6: interest rate. Are you saying that the sell off that 212 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 6: we've seen in ten year treasuries isn't done and that 213 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 6: you see enough momentum and frankly rationalization behind the move 214 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 6: that yields could go beyond five percent to even six 215 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 6: percent on the tenure. 216 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 7: Yeah. 217 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 5: Absolutely, I think that that's not a base case, right. 218 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 5: But if you imagine that the best news on inflation 219 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 5: might be behind us, we have energy prices going up. 220 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 5: We have a unique situation where high interest rates our 221 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 5: crimping housing supply around the world at a time when 222 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,199 Speaker 5: housing is in short supply. That's a very unusual configuration. 223 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 5: You could get some bad inflation numbers, you could get 224 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 5: a signal that higher rates are coming from central banks, 225 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 5: and the curve shape is only ready for rates to 226 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 5: come back down, it's not really ready for the higher 227 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,719 Speaker 5: for longer kind of idea that you could, you know 228 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,439 Speaker 5: as whether that's a one in six or one in three, 229 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 5: you could definitely end up between five and six on 230 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 5: the tenure. I think it's more likely we're going to 231 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 5: head up towards five and then as we go through 232 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 5: next year. Thankfully, the fundamental data is really moderating. The 233 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 5: underlying trends in inflation moderating, growth moderating, and in the 234 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 5: US less so than in other places, but even in 235 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 5: the US it is. This battle on inflation is our 236 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 5: economists Tromp Porcelli's fond of saying, is over and we 237 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 5: should be seeing the rates coming back down next year. 238 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 5: But definitely, I think we've seen a move in that 239 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 5: range back up towards the central tendency round four, and 240 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 5: right now fed's not convinced that the cycle's crested. 241 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 7: So yeah, there's upside risk. 242 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 6: Robert, you're talking about the inflation outlook. You're not talking 243 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,719 Speaker 6: about the fiscal backdrop, which a lot of people say 244 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 6: was known right that we're going to have a real 245 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 6: big supply of bond sales and not the FED picking 246 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 6: up the other side. Is that one of the main drivers, 247 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 6: or is this just fundamentally the data has been coming 248 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,599 Speaker 6: in better than expected and this is an economy that 249 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 6: needs a five percent ten year yield, not a three 250 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 6: and a half percent one. 251 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 8: Yeah. 252 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 5: I think up until you know the turn of the century, 253 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 5: you know, the supply bulges weren't that big. But since 254 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 5: the financial crisis COVID, the fiscal situation is huge. Globally, 255 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 5: we're dealing with governments that have much bigger guest stocks, 256 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 5: much more rollover, and we've just come into the QT 257 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 5: period where that means the central banks are no longer 258 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 5: coming in and scooping up big chunks of the auction. 259 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 5: So the markets now are forced to think about think 260 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 5: hard about where things are every day, and on a 261 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 5: day like yesterday, there were no treasury auctions of long 262 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 5: term notes and VODs, but I think there's over one 263 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 5: hundred billion in bills, so. 264 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 7: There is a relationship there. 265 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 5: It tends to make curves steeper, it tends to make 266 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 5: treasuries cheapen a relative to what's the true underlying riskless 267 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 5: rate in the market, And I think that is one 268 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 5: of the minor upward pressures contributing to the sellof We've 269 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 5: seen that with the downgrade, we saw it with the 270 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 5: refunding announcement and the other big drivers the FED that's 271 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 5: dragging the markets kicking and screaming to the reality that 272 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 5: we're going to be up in the zip cub you know, 273 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 5: for rates for some time to come. 274 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 3: Notice Cove, We've been in for a long long time. 275 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 3: Robert Saff Thank you of Page and fixed. 276 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 7: And come. 277 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 2: On. The Conference Board is absolutely definitive on the pulse 278 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,239 Speaker 2: of business in America. Dana Peterson is a chief economist 279 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 2: of the Conference Board. Dana, what's business doing right. 280 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: Now with this yield move? 281 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 8: Well, I think businesses are looking at the fact that 282 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 8: the cost of capital is rising and they're starting to 283 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 8: pull back on investments. And certainly, when we look at 284 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 8: our consumer well our CEO confidence measure, many CEOs, even 285 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 8: eighty four percent, think that there's still going to be 286 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 8: a recession coming, and they're starting to think about what 287 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 8: they're going to do with investments. But surely they are 288 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 8: still holding on to workers and they're still hoarding I look. 289 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 2: At this and to me and this goes to the 290 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: Conference Board research, and that is a log convexity of 291 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 2: this real rate. This new environment we're in, the rate 292 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 2: of change. The speed of movement is shocking. Do you 293 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 2: see that in the conference board research. 294 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 8: Well, I mean, certainly, when we ask consumers what they're 295 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 8: really concerned about, deep in the weeds, they are saying 296 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 8: that they are concerned about higher interest rates and what 297 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 8: that means for purchasing items, especially big ticket items that 298 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 8: you need to finance. But the thing is that they're 299 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 8: still mainly concerned about inflation, and certainly they're becoming more 300 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 8: worried about the labor market. 301 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 6: The fact that there is more concern about inflation, if 302 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 6: there is more concern about hiring enough workers, does that 303 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 6: just sort of solidify to you that we are not 304 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 6: going to get a recession in the near term, that 305 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 6: we can keep going the way we are, just simply 306 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 6: because they keep seeing the customers, they keep seeing the sales. 307 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 8: Well, I think we're seeing some slowing and sales. Certainly, 308 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 8: when retail sales came out in August, they were weaker, 309 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 8: and I think the consumer is going to be faced 310 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 8: with a number of hurdles. Certainly, just as of this weekend, 311 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 8: student loan payments returned, and that's roughly forty four million 312 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 8: people impacted. Many of those people between the ages of 313 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 8: thirty five and forty nine. Those are peak spending years. 314 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 8: And so when you add that on to the fact 315 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 8: that excess savings is running out many consumers who already 316 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 8: spent that money or turning to credit card use, all 317 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 8: these things bode poorly for the consumer, and certainly with 318 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 8: higher interest rates still yet to impact the consumer spending, 319 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 8: we think that we're still headed for a short and 320 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 8: shallow recession, probably in the first half of next year. 321 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 6: The key component that we've been looking for is the 322 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 6: labor market. We are going to get the Jolt data 323 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 6: coming out at ten am today. There is a question 324 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 6: about whether some of the wage increases that people will 325 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 6: keep seeing will offset the inflation, will actually be real 326 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 6: positive wage growth, which we actually started to see in 327 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 6: the past number of months. Do you foresee that being 328 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 6: the new reality just because of the structural tightness of 329 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 6: the labor market. 330 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 8: Well, you have two things going on. Wage growth is slowing, 331 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 8: especially in services, not so much in those jobs where 332 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 8: you have to physically show up to work, and you're 333 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 8: losing older experienced workers but inflation is coming down at 334 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 8: least underlying inflation, and so there is an offset. And 335 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 8: for the first time we've had several months of. 336 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 3: Real wage gains. 337 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 8: But still in all when we ask consumers what are 338 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 8: you most worried about, they're still complaining about food and 339 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 8: energy prices. And we know that energy prices are rising 340 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 8: because OPEC is pulled back on production, and so that 341 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 8: tends to that's a bread and butter type issue. And 342 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 8: for many consumers it doesn't matter what's going on. If 343 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 8: it costs more to fill up your tank and it 344 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 8: costs more to fill up your grocery cart, then the 345 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 8: world is not a great place. 346 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 6: This is the reason why some people are worried about 347 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 6: a wage price viral, because you're seeing the activity of 348 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 6: labor unions coming out saying we're not keeping pace with 349 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 6: those increases at the pump, with those increases at the 350 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 6: grocery store, and they're demanding higher wages and they're getting them. 351 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 6: How much are you watching this with interest to highlight 352 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 6: how much we could see wages continue to go up 353 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 6: at a significant pace just simply to offset that pain 354 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 6: that you're talking about. 355 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 8: Sure, I think the key thing is that the number 356 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 8: of people who are in unions now is much lower 357 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 8: than in the past. So I don't imagine that the 358 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 8: actions that we're seeing and increases in wages due to 359 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 8: union actions are necessarily going to spiral out of control 360 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 8: and filter throughout the rest of the economy. But like 361 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 8: I said, we are seeing wage growth slow. Last year, 362 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 8: wage growth was really outsized more than it could be 363 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 8: sustained by businesses. So we're going to see that slow 364 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 8: to a more sustainable pace. 365 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: Dana, what are we going to see in the jobs report? 366 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: I'm asking for a friend. 367 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 8: Well, I don't know what the numbers are, but I 368 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 8: would not be surprised if we saw slowing, continued slowing 369 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 8: in the number of payroll gains, certainly compared to last year. 370 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 8: Just looking at the three parts of the labor market, 371 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 8: you're still going to have a lot of hoarding, but 372 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 8: we're probably going to continue to see job losses in 373 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 8: those sectors that did very well during the pandemic and 374 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 8: are not doing so well now. And then also some 375 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 8: gains continued gains and healthcare and some in leisure and 376 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 8: hospitality and. 377 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 2: Near emails in he says, but what about the real wage? Okay, 378 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 2: so you got the doom and gloom. Dana Peterson, wage decline, 379 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 2: I get it, but I also got disinflation. Do I 380 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 2: have a level or even an increasing inflation adjusted wage? 381 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 8: Well, I think well depends on your inflation gage. If 382 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 8: you use headline, it's probably about level or maybe even 383 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 8: a decline a bit, because like I said, overall inflation 384 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 8: is rising because of gasoline prices. But if you use 385 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 8: the core, then you probably will see some easing or 386 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 8: rather some improvement in weight real adjusted wages. 387 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: Dana, thank you so much. 388 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 2: Dana Peterson with the conference board here on the American economy. 389 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 3: There's new weight loss drugs hit the market. Sheila Kayalu 390 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 3: of Jeffreys crunching the numbers and writing this, United Airlines 391 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 3: would save eighty million dollars a year if the average 392 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 3: passenger weight falls by ten pounds. This would trim one thousand, 393 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 3: seven hundred and ninety pounds from every United flight, implying 394 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 3: a saving of twenty seven point six million gallons a year. 395 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 3: TK there's some big numbers. 396 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 2: This is important, and Johan Farre will bring in our 397 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 2: next guest, John, I'm gonna do some research, are you. 398 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 2: My father died and I had to take on very 399 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 2: short notice an economy trip. I didn't have a choice 400 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 2: get on a plane, Prima Donna, like I had to 401 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 2: go to economy. 402 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 1: And I can report to you. 403 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 2: With surveillance analysis, which is appropriate for someone who owns 404 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 2: electrical equipment at credit sweee and now with Jeffrey Sheila Kayalu, 405 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 2: that the economy width of a United seat is sixteen 406 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 2: point eight inches and business class is a lofty twenty 407 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 2: point seven inches. I had to sit up the entire 408 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 2: way to Oregon on the unrest because I literally couldn't 409 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 2: get in a seat. 410 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: Take care of that SHOKEI it's worst in Fenway Park. 411 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 3: That's Brad sail SHADOWE place to say is with us 412 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 3: now shadea good morning. 413 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 9: Thanks. 414 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 3: Let's start here. How did this study start? What are 415 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 3: you assuming? What are the underlying assumptions that go into 416 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 3: all of this? 417 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 9: So kudos to the Jeffreys Equity Research Department for pulling 418 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 9: this piece together with thirty analysts across the department. And 419 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 9: of how you know weight loss drugs could potentially be 420 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,959 Speaker 9: helpful and ackful to industries and for airspace and defense 421 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 9: and airlines. You know airlines are constantly trying to save fuel. 422 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 9: Fuel is twenty five percent of their costs. It's something 423 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 9: out of their control. Fuels up thirty percent, the stocks 424 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 9: are down twenty percent in the last three months, and 425 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 9: the engine manufacturers like Raytheon, Pratt and GE are having 426 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 9: trouble getting the fuel efficiency cross. So we said, what 427 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 9: if something out of their control happens and one hundred 428 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 9: and seventy five people on the flight lose ten pounds 429 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 9: because of ozenfic or whatever, you know, diet that they're on, 430 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 9: and what does that do? And we took a stat 431 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 9: going back to twenty eighteen that poor United Airlines put 432 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 9: out there. They saved an ounce on every passenger seat 433 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 9: from taking out changing the feedstock of the paper that 434 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 9: they used on their United Airlines magazine and saving eleven 435 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 9: pounds for per flight. What yeah, And so we extrapolated 436 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 9: that into ten pounds per passengers one hundred seventy five 437 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 9: people per plane. What happens to the fuel savings? They 438 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 9: saved twenty seven million versus the forty two billion that 439 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 9: they use. So they use a lot of fuel. It's 440 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,159 Speaker 9: only two percent, but hey, it's a savings out of 441 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 9: their control, and you don't need a new engine for that. 442 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 3: So this is a what if. Are you prepared to 443 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 3: say that this is a proxy now for a zenpic 444 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 3: and we should get long United Airlines? Are you there yet? 445 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 9: I think across the airline space, variable costs is very 446 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 9: difficult for them to manage with fuel going up, so 447 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 9: in all seriousness, that is impacting shares of the airlines. 448 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 9: So far, labor costs are up forty percent as well, 449 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 9: so with their with fifty percent of their costs up 450 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 9: significantly over the last few months. It's definitely weigh on 451 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 9: the airlines and we're going to see that into q 452 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 9: Q three earnings that are coming up in two weeks time. 453 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 9: But you know, the cost element is weighing and also 454 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 9: the revenues are as well as a pricing problems. 455 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,199 Speaker 2: Lisa, the surveillance golf stream unner less soire I had 456 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 2: to go back and actually it's about Kirby air Kirby 457 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,640 Speaker 2: United Airlines. I was thunderstruck at the percent of business 458 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 2: class seats. The more I look back, it's bigger and bigger. 459 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 2: One study is they've gone from thirty seats to forty 460 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,920 Speaker 2: six seats. When is time where business class simply takes 461 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 2: over their profit proposition. 462 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 9: So what's going on in the airline industry right now? 463 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 9: It's the haves and the have nots. For the first 464 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 9: time in such a long time, the network carriers like 465 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 9: United and Delta are having their way because that premium 466 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 9: passenger is holding up the pricing element, and the mainline 467 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 9: cabins are actually seeing price deceleration year over year and 468 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 9: over capacity to leisure markets like Florida. So you're really 469 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 9: seeing a tale of two markets where Southwest, Jet Blue 470 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 9: are pre announcing pretty negative results on their visibility and 471 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 9: Delta and United are seeing premium pricing happen. So that's 472 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 9: because of the business class. 473 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 6: Let's put that together, this idea of the potential for 474 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,880 Speaker 6: weight loss to improve the margins for some of these companies, 475 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 6: and the idea that a lot of the companies are 476 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 6: earning the most from the front of the cabin, how 477 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,160 Speaker 6: much can they really push in terms of extra expenses 478 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 6: before they have a real pr problem. In other words, 479 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 6: what would happen if you had a company come out 480 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 6: one of the discount carriers and say we're going to 481 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 6: weigh everybody before they get on the plane, and if 482 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 6: you're over this point, we're going to charge you more. 483 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 9: I mean, I think that's part of the problem with 484 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 9: the discount carriers is you know, there's no seat assignments. 485 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 9: It's a lot more difficult. There's no variability in the 486 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 9: class you set in. So I think we're far away 487 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 9: from weighing passengers. 488 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 3: But this was just we white backs done. We Yeah, well, 489 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,239 Speaker 3: you know they weigh backs. You get punished if your 490 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 3: back is too heavy, don't you. 491 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,560 Speaker 6: Well, okay, but this to me is the issue. It's like, 492 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 6: how much can people handle? How much can people put 493 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 6: up with? Paying for water, paying for drinks, paying for snacks, 494 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 6: paying for the air you breathe, paying for how much 495 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 6: you weigh? I mean, at a certain point, you know, 496 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 6: when does this become a real problem. 497 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 3: But ten pounds of weight loss? What does that ten 498 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 3: pounds come from? You make an assumptions of what could 499 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 3: happen to the average weight of the passenger. Do you 500 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 3: think that's something actually could happen? 501 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think according to these waste loss drugs. Clearly 502 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 9: I'm not on them, but you know people tend to 503 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 9: be on them. But if they do lose an average 504 00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 9: of ten pounds, one hundred and seventy five passengers per 505 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 9: narrow wide bodies are three hundred, it would be a 506 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 9: significant fuel cost savings. And it was actually in light 507 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 9: of because we cover the airlines, the aircraft OEMs like 508 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 9: Boeing and the engine guys like GE and RTX, and 509 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 9: they're having such mega issues building these aircraft. It was 510 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 9: just a fun way of looking at something that's completely 511 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 9: out of their control, not having you to do with 512 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 9: making a fuselage with Spirit that stocks down forty five percent, 513 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,719 Speaker 9: just changed its CEO yesterday. And the engine manufacturers, obviously 514 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 9: Pride is having a tough time with the contamination in 515 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 9: their engine. 516 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:32,159 Speaker 3: So there's a. 517 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 9: Different angle of looking at something completely out of their control. 518 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 3: Yet Blue struggling as well. So let's get to the 519 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 3: nuts and bolts of what's happening right now. Are you 520 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 3: starting to see limits to the consumer appetite for flying 521 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 3: domestically in America? We've seen that happen now. 522 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 9: So it's a matter of that's our debate in Q three. 523 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 9: We're going to see what results have to bring. We 524 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 9: downgraded Southwest Airlines to an underperform in the beginning of 525 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 9: August on that structural call that the US domestic consumer 526 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 9: is in a tough spot. Student loans are coming back, 527 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 9: it's weighing on their savings, so that mainline cabin passenger 528 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 9: is going to see some difficult times. You know, pricing 529 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 9: is up about ten percent versus twenty nineteen levels. We 530 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 9: saw Q two pricing on the mainline cabin down one percent, 531 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 9: very different than the story we're seeing in the premium 532 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 9: business class cabin. Very different than Transatlantic up twenty five 533 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 9: percent versus twenty nineteen levels. So it's a matter of 534 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 9: where we you know, what we see in Q three results, John, 535 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 9: I look at two flights. 536 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 2: I just ran through the Paris flight, which I think 537 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 2: at one point was seven thousand dollars even nine thousand 538 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:36,439 Speaker 2: dollars in pandemic and all that shocking statistic. Two thousand, 539 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,959 Speaker 2: six hundred and twelve dollars business class to Paris out 540 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: a couple months, Like when you're planning months out, economy 541 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 2: used to be seven hundred and even nine hundred dollars. 542 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 2: It's now five thirty four, but the ratio is still 543 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 2: four point nine to one. You pay a premium to 544 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 2: fly Pharaoh. 545 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 3: You pay a premium, just to be clear, just to 546 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 3: be Mary Claar Shita, thank you. Thanks Gs Kyler of Jeffray. 547 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 2: With the support of Ray Dalio in Greenwich, Connecticut, they 548 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 2: have put together an annual soiree come October. The Greenwich 549 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 2: Economic Forum really can't say enough about that. Behind that 550 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 2: and support as their governor Ned Lamont. He is the 551 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 2: governor of Connecticut and of course has a storied history 552 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 2: here of doing business and attempting to keep business within Connecticut. 553 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 2: Of course, all the idea of the transfer of Connecticut 554 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 2: to maybe a greater New York business as well. Governor, 555 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining surveillance this morning. What 556 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 2: are you going to do about Florida? What are you 557 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 2: going to do about somebody in an X million dollar 558 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 2: palace in Greenwich or someplace else, or somebody in one 559 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty two thousand dollars rental paying four thousand 560 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 2: bucks a month in Connecticut and both these people say 561 00:26:58,480 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 2: I'm moving to Florida. 562 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: What are you going to do about it? 563 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 10: I'm good to see you. First of all, this is 564 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 10: not a soiree. This is a hard working group for 565 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 10: the French Economic Forum. We have a lot of fintech 566 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:16,719 Speaker 10: and financial services here expanding here, moving here. You're right though, 567 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 10: a lot of these firms also have a foot down 568 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 10: in Florida, so there's a little bit of a competition 569 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 10: Greenwich and Stanford and Miami. You know, when it comes 570 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 10: to housing prices, we're very competitive when it comes to 571 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 10: workforce and you know, young well educated folks ready for 572 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 10: the fintech world. Connecticut is very competitive there and we've 573 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 10: had tens of thousands of new families move into the 574 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 10: state of Connecticut, you know, in each of the last 575 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 10: few years, so I think we're making progress. A lot 576 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 10: of people want to be here. 577 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 2: What is your most effective text policy over the next 578 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 2: five years to compete with the American South? 579 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 10: Did you say tech or tax techs? 580 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 1: TA tax policy Connecticut? 581 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 2: I don't know if you're aware they have a few 582 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 2: marginal taxes, to say the least. 583 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 1: What are you going to do about tax policy in Connecticut? 584 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 10: Well, look, I don't think we'll ever be as cheap 585 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 10: as far than when it comes to taxes, because they 586 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 10: can tax sunshine and tourism. But we have an amazing 587 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 10: education system, which is a big plus. We just reduce 588 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 10: taxes for everybody earning up to about two hundred and 589 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 10: fifty thousand, so we're the lowest in the region, so 590 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 10: we're making a real progress there. We've eliminated the estate 591 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 10: tax for everybody except for the very top five percent 592 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 10: of people, So I take that too account. But I 593 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 10: also have to sell Connecticut on the attributes. And that's 594 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 10: not just the lifestyle. That's not just the easy access 595 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 10: to New York or Boston, great place to visit, wouldn't 596 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 10: want to live there, but also the quality of education 597 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 10: system and our workforce. 598 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 6: How difficult, governor is it to really build up Connecticut 599 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 6: at a time where they are where you are losing population, 600 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,600 Speaker 6: when borrowing costs are where they are, where you don't 601 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,479 Speaker 6: have the leeway of borrowing to build so that they 602 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 6: will come. 603 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 10: Well, look, let's fasten. We were flat as a pancake 604 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 10: for thirty years there, and you're absolutely right. We were 605 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 10: losing population. A lot of the older folks were going 606 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 10: down to Florida. That's turning around a bit. You know, 607 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 10: during the COVID days, our schools were open. A lot 608 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 10: of folks moved into the state, A lot of them 609 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 10: came from New York, to be blunt about it, and 610 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 10: they stayed. So our schools were expanding. You know, the 611 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 10: biggest shortfall I've got is housing. I got to make 612 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 10: sure we have enough housing for people here. 613 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 6: There's a problem though, with businesses. I mean Frontier Communications 614 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 6: was the latest going to I believe Dallas from Norwalk, Connecticut. 615 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 6: I mean some businesses are looking for that tax advantage 616 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 6: as well. It's not just older people in particular. I 617 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 6: just am wondering how much you can really cater to 618 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 6: the tax side of the equation when you can't plug 619 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 6: the gap on the borrowing side simply because of where 620 00:29:59,000 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 6: yields are. 621 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 7: Well. 622 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 10: I can tell you that Frontier, which was nearly bankrupt, 623 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 10: did move their corporate headquarters, but you know, all the 624 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 10: staff is still here. But you know, Citadel and Apollo 625 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 10: and Digital Currency Group and Tomo all moved to the state. 626 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 10: We're taking sort of an older economy and slowly moving 627 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 10: into a newer economy. So I like the trend there. 628 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 10: You're absolutely right. Look, Texas is a variable. New England 629 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 10: Northeast is more expensive than the sun Melters. I call 630 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 10: it the hot belt. But we're getting more competitive every day, 631 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 10: and I think our workforce is a big advantage. 632 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 3: Governor, do you have a migrant crisis? 633 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,480 Speaker 10: No, I wouldn't say it's a crisis, but I watch 634 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 10: it carefully. We've had a few thousand migrants come. We 635 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 10: have a bit of a waiting list, but for us, 636 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 10: a waiting list is going from three weeks to three months. 637 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 10: It's not what it is you know, New York and Texas, 638 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 10: But we watch it carefully. They've got to get to 639 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 10: control the border. Just the deal. 640 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 3: You're a sanctuary state, aren't you am? 641 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,480 Speaker 10: I right, No, that's not true, but we do have 642 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 10: a couple of cities that claim that. But this is 643 00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 10: not a sanctuary state. We do take care of people 644 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 10: in need when they come to the state. But again 645 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 10: I think that said, we've got to get control of 646 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 10: the border. 647 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 3: What do you make of the attitude changes in places 648 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 3: like New York with a year or sub ago that 649 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 3: were welcoming migrants and people seeking asylument and now they 650 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 3: seem to be turning them back on that. Now they 651 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 3: actually have to confront what that looks like. 652 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 10: I think a monitor is a liberal who is rugged 653 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 10: by reality. When New York City has, you know, hundreds 654 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 10: of thousands of new mirgrants, you've got to take care 655 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 10: of You've got to shelter. Kathy Holkals has been very 656 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 10: outspoken on this, as has Eric Adams. You got to 657 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 10: get these people that they're there either going to be 658 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 10: a welfare they're gonna have to be able to get 659 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 10: a job. It all circles back to the fact that 660 00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 10: you've got to control your border. 661 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 3: We sank Governor that what we saw for much of 662 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 3: the last several years around this issue was purely just 663 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 3: virtue signaling without a price, and that had now been 664 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 3: mucked by reality. 665 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 10: Well, let's face it, we've had a lot of vibrant 666 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 10: coming across the border, you know, going back to Donald 667 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 10: Trump and caravans of terrorists whatever he said, But that said, 668 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 10: we've got to control that. Part of that is what 669 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 10: you do at the border. Maybe you recognize Venezuela and 670 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 10: do some things to mitigate the pressure for people wanted 671 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,479 Speaker 10: to come into the United States. 672 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 2: That I'm absolutely thrilled to find. 673 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 1: How we're going to save banking in the Northeast. 674 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 2: As you know, you had six football field platforms of 675 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 2: ubs long ago and far away in Stamford, and that's 676 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 2: sort of It's not that it didn't work out, it's 677 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 2: just technology advance forward with work from a home with technology, 678 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 2: how does Connecticut stay financial. 679 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 10: I think work from home Tom is a good trend 680 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 10: for us in the sense that we used to have 681 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 10: everybody commuting back and forth and into the city and 682 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 10: down the Wall Street and the long haul and men. 683 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 10: As you point out, a lot of want of the 684 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 10: be closer to a home, so they move some of 685 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 10: their headquarters out of here. What we're finding is, maybe 686 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 10: you're in the city two three days a week. Our 687 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 10: Metro North trains on Friday are not crowded at all. 688 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 10: In fact, they're virtually empty. We're going to cut down 689 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 10: there a little bit, just because people have a different lifestyle. 690 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 10: And I think the fact that you can be closer 691 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 10: to home out here in Connecticut and you don't have 692 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 10: to do that commute five days a week is a 693 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 10: big plus for the Connecticut lifestyle. 694 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 3: Governor, I appreciate the update today. Let's do this again soon, 695 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 3: Governor an I'm on of Connecticut. 696 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,800 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and 697 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday 698 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern. Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio 699 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 2: app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can 700 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,720 Speaker 2: watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the 701 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:08,720 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal. 702 00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg