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Speaker 1: They're happy January twelfth, and welcome to I guess what

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Speaker 1: we could call the first sort of normal episode of

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Speaker 1: the Chuck podcast for calendar year twenty twenty six, I

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Speaker 1: say fourth normal. Obviously my schedule didn't change, but we

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Speaker 1: had a few specials. We had some special mailbag episodes.

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Speaker 1: I did a couple of what ifs in there. I

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Speaker 1: will admit there were a few more what ifs we

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Speaker 1: wanted to do, but you know, look there's only there's

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Speaker 1: only a certain amount of content we can create and

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Speaker 1: a certain amount of content that you guys want to consume,

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Speaker 1: and you know you don't want to oversaturate anything in

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Speaker 1: any particular category. But for the at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, this is sort of, you know, my first

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Speaker 1: full week back fully folk, well, I say fully focused.

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Speaker 1: I'll admit that I have a tiny part of my

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Speaker 1: brain focused on January nineteenth, down in hard Rock Stadium,

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Speaker 1: where the University of Miami will be taking on the

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Speaker 1: Indiana Hoosiers, where we're going to find out if the

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Speaker 1: University of Miami is simply a supporting cast member in

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Speaker 1: the lifetime Hallmark movie Love Story between Fernando Mendoz and

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Speaker 1: Kurt Signetti. Of course, that this is a different movie

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Speaker 1: and that Kurt Signetti and Fernando Mendoza are supporting characters

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Speaker 1: in one about the comeback of a great college football

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Speaker 1: dynasty known as the University of Miamy. So yes, it

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Speaker 1: is about the only positive thing I feel like I

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Speaker 1: feel comfortable even celebrating in public these days. And I'm

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Speaker 1: going to get to a full football report, including sort

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Speaker 1: of my explanation of how Miami loses and my explanation

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Speaker 1: of how Miami wins. And for those of you that

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Speaker 1: keep very close track of my sports teams, let's just

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Speaker 1: say my son is in the fetal position having to

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Speaker 1: do with the disaster that is the Green Bay Packers.

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Speaker 1: Nothing more embarrassing than to lose to the lowly Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 1: We Packer fans don't have a lot of respect for

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Speaker 1: that Bears organization. They've been nice little brothers for decades

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Speaker 1: and decades to lose that way, to lose the way

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Speaker 1: they did, so I have a few strong feelings to

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Speaker 1: share on that and to channel some of my son's rage,

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Speaker 1: because he's very frustrated. He says, you're happy he doesn't

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Speaker 1: live and die by the University of Miami the way

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Speaker 1: I do. So he's jealous that I have something to

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Speaker 1: be happy about in football, and he feels as if

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Speaker 1: he has nothing to be happy about in football right now.

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Speaker 1: But let's be honest, those are good problems to have.

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Speaker 1: I think we all would prefer to be focusing on that,

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Speaker 1: And obviously I will get to that, but it's going

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Speaker 1: to be at the end of the podcast. Let me

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Speaker 1: give you a quick little sort of contents if you

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Speaker 1: will table of contact of what you're going, what you

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Speaker 1: should expect today. I have a little bit of my

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Speaker 1: thoughts on when I am deeming the year of living dangerously.

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Speaker 1: I think we, all of us, it's global citizens, are

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Speaker 1: living in the most tumultuous year perhaps that we've experienced yet.

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Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong, but all the ingredients are there

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Speaker 1: for what could be a year of life being dangerously,

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Speaker 1: whether it's domestically internationally. If we can get to the

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Speaker 1: end of this calendar year without significant number of lost

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Speaker 1: lives somewhere around this globe, I think we will call

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Speaker 1: that a win. But the bottom line is it feels

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Speaker 1: very unsteady, very uncertain, and there is no doubt with

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Speaker 1: the entire globe. I think there's a lot of this anxiety,

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Speaker 1: and I want to get at that anxiety. I also

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Speaker 1: want to do a deep dive on the incident in Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: with a little bit of reflection on another incident that

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Speaker 1: took place some thirty five years ago that actually is

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Speaker 1: worthy of some comparison. I'll also today is a Monday,

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Speaker 1: which means we are going to have a Toddcast time

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Speaker 1: machine and we're going to go back to nineteen eighteen

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Speaker 1: and talk about sort of a moment that helped spark

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Speaker 1: the idea that America was a global superpower and that

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Speaker 1: America essentially could be the leading benevolent power in the world,

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Speaker 1: and how we wanted to how we want, what kind

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Speaker 1: of example we wanted to set, what kind of world

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Speaker 1: order we wanted to build, and the success with which

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Speaker 1: we did that. And now we're at the brink of

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Speaker 1: destroying everything that helped make this country so great for

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Speaker 1: so long. We'll do a few q and as, and

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Speaker 1: then of course we will get to my brilliant football

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Speaker 1: takes that I know so many of you hang your

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Speaker 1: hat on, more so perhaps than anything else. But I digress,

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Speaker 1: But let me get to a large idea that I

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Speaker 1: want to live with leave you with today, because look,

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Speaker 1: I've been out and about traveling both on interstates around there.

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Speaker 1: I've traveled a bit internationally over the last three or

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Speaker 1: four weeks. I've run into a variety of people in

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Speaker 1: different walks of life, different socioeconomic classes. And what's interesting

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Speaker 1: is how common the questions I get when people recognize me,

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Speaker 1: and the kind of questions that they throw at me

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Speaker 1: that aren't specific with details, but all thematically pretty much

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Speaker 1: the same whether they are on Team Blue or Team

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Speaker 1: Red these days, and it's simply this, are we going

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Speaker 1: to be okay? And my instinct when I get that

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Speaker 1: question is simply to say, yeah, of course we are.

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Speaker 1: We've been through this before, and you've heard me say this.

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Speaker 1: And there are plenty of times in American history where

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Speaker 1: we've been on the brink of something bad and we've

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Speaker 1: pulled back. Sometimes we've pursued bad policies and we've eventually

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Speaker 1: learned the hard way. That gives me optimism because I

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Speaker 1: do think we are eventually going to get out of

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Speaker 1: this and be in a better place. The question is

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Speaker 1: how much damage is done before we get to that

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Speaker 1: work in the road. And that's where I can't always

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Speaker 1: provide full comfort to people. I have this sort of

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Speaker 1: dark joke that I say at times about climate change,

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Speaker 1: and I'll say this. I say, in two hundred years

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Speaker 1: from now, if the world's population is cut in half,

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Speaker 1: let's say the world's population is three billion in the

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Speaker 1: year twenty two hundred, will you say we survived climate change?

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Speaker 1: So the answer is, yes, the species did, but we

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Speaker 1: lost a lot of lives. Our population shrunk quite a bit, right,

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Speaker 1: You see where I'm going here, right. The point is

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Speaker 1: we're going to survive all of this. The question is

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Speaker 1: how much damage is done until we get to that

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Speaker 1: point where we don't have the anxiety that we all

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Speaker 1: feel today, Which is why I am deeming twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six the year in which the globe, but in particular

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Speaker 1: the United States, isn't a year of living dangerously. We've

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Speaker 1: had other dangerous years, and again I hope I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: I hope this proves not to be the case, but

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Speaker 1: I think, unfortunately all of the circumstantial evidence is pointing

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Speaker 1: in that direction. So the framing question I want to

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Speaker 1: come back to isn't where should we be headed? It's

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Speaker 1: more basin basic than that. It's simply where are we

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Speaker 1: actually headed? Because the honest answer is, weren't some uncharted

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Speaker 1: waters here? Right? We've had similar experiences with nationalism, We've

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Speaker 1: had similar experiences with over exuberant, exuberant executive power. We've

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Speaker 1: had all sorts of times when the federal government has

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Speaker 1: done things that if that has harmed a class of

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Speaker 1: people unfairly. So, yes, we've been down these roads before,

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Speaker 1: but we always seem to have a moral compass that

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Speaker 1: we would eventually follow The question is does that moral

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Speaker 1: compass work. Some of these things I'm gonna are going

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Speaker 1: to sound repetitive to some of you because I've talked

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Speaker 1: about them in the past. You know, I think one

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Speaker 1: of the ways to understand what has been now a

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Speaker 1: quarter century of what I would describe as rolling, unresolved

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Speaker 1: anxiety about the current shape of our economy and our

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Speaker 1: economic outlook, our cultural transition. None of this is quite landed, right.

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Speaker 1: We have not fully fully embraced what this new economy

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Speaker 1: is going to look like. Globalization is certainly one where

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Speaker 1: there's been a revolution against AI is only going to

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Speaker 1: accelerate even more. Globalization, which is only going to accelerate

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Speaker 1: more anxiety, identity status, all of that has been up

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Speaker 1: in the air, and all of it's been playing out

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Speaker 1: across the entire twenty first century. This isn't just an

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Speaker 1: American story. It's been a global story as well, right,

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Speaker 1: Bresit wasn't a trigger in this country, bregsit was one

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Speaker 1: of the big triggers in Europe. You had a mass

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Speaker 1: migration crisis in the Mediterranean Sea that helped trigger a

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Speaker 1: lot of nationalism in Europe and a lot of xenophobia

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Speaker 1: in Europe, and you know, of course we have not

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Speaker 1: dealt with why are there so many Why is there

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Speaker 1: so many surges from the Global South to try to

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Speaker 1: come into the westernized world. Well, the global South is

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Speaker 1: in deep, deep trouble for a variety of reasons, and

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Speaker 1: that is something that has been unresolved. Look, globalization has

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Speaker 1: created massive wealth, wealth we hadn't seen before, massive efficiency,

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Speaker 1: massive displacement. Entire communities have been lost, not just not

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Speaker 1: just on jobs, but a sense of purpose. So globalization

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Speaker 1: created massive wealth, massive efficiency, and massive display. Entire communities

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Speaker 1: lost not just jobs, but they lost a sense of purpose.

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Speaker 1: You just go through the state of Iowa. I've told

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Speaker 1: you those stories in the past, and for a while,

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Speaker 1: the promise was, don't worry. All of this is eventually

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Speaker 1: going to stabilize. The next generation will be fine. The

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Speaker 1: system will catch up. This is what happened right in

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Speaker 1: the early twentieth century. The system caught up and we

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Speaker 1: had this thriving middle class economy by the nineteen fifties.

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Speaker 1: That hadn't happened yet. Doesn't mean it still won't. But

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Speaker 1: the problem is our anxiety is still there. Right. That

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Speaker 1: is why we've been in this vote against mindset. We

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Speaker 1: have not liked the system that's in place, and we

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Speaker 1: have held political leaders accountable who are in charge when

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Speaker 1: the system is in place. And now, of course we

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Speaker 1: have AI, right that is about to pour gasoline on

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Speaker 1: this globalization. In what globalization created some fear, AI is

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Speaker 1: going to create a ton more fear. Globalization really impacted

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Speaker 1: blue collar America. AI is going to impact all of

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Speaker 1: America from blue collar jobs, pink collar jobs, white collar jobs,

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Speaker 1: you name it. And that unease is only going to

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Speaker 1: add more to this anxiety that is out there. So

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Speaker 1: the fear is compounding and it's not replacing old anxiety,

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Speaker 1: it's essentially stacks on top of it. And then when

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Speaker 1: you combine economic fear with cultural displacement, right the sort

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Speaker 1: of the changing look of America, if you will, you

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Speaker 1: get a public that is unsettled enough to be persuadable

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Speaker 1: and exhausted enough to be dangerous. And that's why I

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Speaker 1: do think we are in a you know, one of

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Speaker 1: the you know, we this could be the year that

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Speaker 1: we are living and it's certainly a year that I

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Speaker 1: feel like we're living dangerously. Then you layer on top

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Speaker 1: what has been a really poor political response to this anxiety.

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Speaker 1: Politicians have tried to respond to this anxiety, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen policy making that I would argue, in my view,

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Speaker 1: hasn't resolved the problem and in some cases has made

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Speaker 1: the anxiety and the uncertainty worse. Not everyone may agree

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Speaker 1: with me on that, but it's hard to argue with

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Speaker 1: the results. Just look, we can just take the issue

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Speaker 1: of tariffs right, Look at how that is destroyed and

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Speaker 1: hurt this economy, impacted cost of living, all sorts of things.

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Speaker 1: This has been a failure. This is an obvious failure

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Speaker 1: of this policy. It has created all sorts of global instability.

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Speaker 1: None of this has gone well for the United States

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Speaker 1: because what we I think are learning here is trade

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Speaker 1: policy that flexes muscle in the short term, leaves businesses

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Speaker 1: unsure and out of plan. Immigration policy that's in strong

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Speaker 1: signals but creates chaos without clarity that also hurts business,

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Speaker 1: that's also impacted your budget at home. Economic nationalism can

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Speaker 1: feel emotionally satisfying, we want these jobs in America, but

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Speaker 1: it often raises costs and utility for the very set

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Speaker 1: of voters that the policy was supposed to protect. And

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Speaker 1: that's the world we're living in right now. So the

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Speaker 1: intent may be to calm fear or to help people

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Speaker 1: wherea no, no, no, no, somebody is going to get your back,

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Speaker 1: and the outcome often does the opposite. When promises that

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Speaker 1: are made go unmet or unfulfilled, then you haven't even

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Speaker 1: angry or public and maybe they will no longer trust

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Speaker 1: the political system to come up with those answers. And

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Speaker 1: then that brings me to the international layer of this

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Speaker 1: world and of this moment of a year that we're

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Speaker 1: living in that I think is pretty dangerous because every

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Speaker 1: day now feels like we're on almost a regime watch moment.

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Speaker 1: Is there going to be real change in Menezuela? We

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Speaker 1: haven't done regime change there. We just knocked out a leader.

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Speaker 1: But did we just break it? We own it? What

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Speaker 1: are we doing with it? We may have weakened the regime.

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Speaker 1: If the regime is still in charge. There seems to

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Speaker 1: be all sorts of crackdowns. There seems to be unsafe

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Speaker 1: for Americans. How did that happen? What are we going

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Speaker 1: to do when you're half in half out right again?

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Speaker 1: The pottery barn rule we broke it? Are we going

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Speaker 1: to go in there? And now? And fix it and

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Speaker 1: what's hot? What you know the issues currently happening in Venezuela.

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Speaker 1: Are we going to suddenly decide we're going to get

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Speaker 1: involved in Iran? Right? The good news is these protesters

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Speaker 1: are in the streets like never before. I will be

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Speaker 1: shocked if the Iranian regime can last this calendar year.

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest stories in the on the planet is when the

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Speaker 1: supreme leader falls in Iran? But how involved should the

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Speaker 1: United States get? And if you get so involved, the

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Speaker 1: actually help the regime stay in power longer. It is

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Speaker 1: a really precarious moment the the you know, look, I

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Speaker 1: remember when these when this protest movement in Iran sparked

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Speaker 1: up in the early days of Obama. Obama said certain

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Speaker 1: things and now there's in hindsight, should he have done more?

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Speaker 1: But the more you do, the more involved you get America,

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Speaker 1: the more involved we get the expectations that were suddenly

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Speaker 1: in charge. Are we rebuilding? You know? It is? It

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Speaker 1: is one of those that the more a global superpower

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Speaker 1: tries to play the game of risk, tries to sit

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Speaker 1: here and manipulate situations, the more it usually doesn't work.

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Speaker 1: And I think given already what we've seen as an

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Speaker 1: unsteady and uneven and we had no Okay, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: get involved in Venezuela, what are you doing the next day?

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Speaker 1: We had no plan. It's clear we don't have a plan.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he is just winging it right now. There

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Speaker 1: was no plan at all. Do we have a plan

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Speaker 1: for Cuba because they're winging it there. There's no plan

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Speaker 1: at all. And if you get involved in I run,

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Speaker 1: what's your plan? Are we really going the irony that

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Speaker 1: suddenly the United States and Donald Trump has decided if

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Speaker 1: you're going to be a nation destructor, then you have

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Speaker 1: no choice but to become a nation builder. And we

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Speaker 1: have just we're trying to destroy the regimes in Venezuela, Iran,

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Speaker 1: and Cuba, and if we are the ones that essentially

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Speaker 1: help break the place, then we're going to have no

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Speaker 1: choice but to play a role in it. Now. I

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Speaker 1: happen to think that we should play a role in

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Speaker 1: these places, but a benevolent role. We can't play the

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Speaker 1: malevolent role. And the fact is history, look as much

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Speaker 1: as there's yeah, I want to see this stuff happen,

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Speaker 1: history says the more involved we get the more skepticism

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Speaker 1: the public itself sometimes has with our involvement, and it

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Speaker 1: actually can backfire. It can it can strengthen leaders that

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Speaker 1: were weak at one point. In fact, we're seeing that

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Speaker 1: Latin America already, the President of Columbia is not very popular.

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Speaker 1: It's a he's overseeing economy that's not very popular. He's

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Speaker 1: overseen a security situation that's not very popular. Political party

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Speaker 1: that is a bit more aligned with the West, a

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Speaker 1: bit more aligned with US priorities in the hemisphere, is

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Speaker 1: favored to win. But all of a sudden, the more

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Speaker 1: heavy handed we are taking with Venezuela, the more suddenly

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Speaker 1: those that are seen as more friendly the United States

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Speaker 1: are being met with more skepticism by the voter, because

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Speaker 1: guess what, there's a history in Latin America of skepticism

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Speaker 1: of United States power and how much they want to

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Speaker 1: exert in those places. So these are good things. Morduro gone,

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Speaker 1: that would be a great thing. The remnants of this

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Speaker 1: Castro regime going away in Cuba, that could be a

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Speaker 1: good thing. Getting rid of the Iatolin Iran that that

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Speaker 1: is all a good thing for people that are being

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Speaker 1: abused in those countries. These are undemocratic dictatorships where anybody

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Speaker 1: that spoke out was thrown in prison, was mistreated, sometimes killed.

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Speaker 1: These regimes have to go, but they have to you know,

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Speaker 1: it has to be the people in these countries that overthrow.

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Speaker 1: You know, if we are seen as the instigator, it

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Speaker 1: will not go well. In fact, why are we having

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Speaker 1: the situation that we have in Iran because of how

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Speaker 1: involved we got in Iran's politics for so long in

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Speaker 1: the fifties, sixties, and seventies. So the reason we have

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Speaker 1: the regime we have in Iran is arguably due to

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Speaker 1: our heavier hand in that country's politics in that country,

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Speaker 1: going back decades and decades. This episode of The Chuck

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Speaker 1: slash chuck. It doesn't take away the larger point that

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Speaker 1: I want to make here about to twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: being the year we're living dangerous, because every headline now

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Speaker 1: feels like a tipping one, like okay, this is going

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Speaker 1: to be a big one, and it's not always clear

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Speaker 1: whether the tip is going to be towards progress. Well,

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Speaker 1: the tip will be disaster. Right, it's progress to get

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Speaker 1: rid of a brutal dictator. It can turn into disaster

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Speaker 1: if there's no plan for a regime that is more democratic,

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Speaker 1: more free, and more responsive to the people. And of course,

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Speaker 1: all of this is happening under an American president who

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Speaker 1: clearly intends and I think this is the motivation, but

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Speaker 1: you know, he just wants He just wants attention and

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Speaker 1: wants to be involved and wants to put his historical

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Speaker 1: stamp on this era whatever and whatever means necessary, if

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Speaker 1: it means just acquiring somebody else's Nobel Peace Prize to

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Speaker 1: say hey, I've got the Peace Prize that I should

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Speaker 1: have gotten, you know, it's something silly like that, or

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Speaker 1: going after Greenland so that somehow the history books will

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Speaker 1: say he got Greenland, or who knows, maybe he does

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Speaker 1: get serious about Canada again. I know Canadians are very

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Speaker 1: nervous about this right, the suddenly embracing of the sphere

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Speaker 1: of influence, the fact that you have people like JD.

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Speaker 1: Vance trying to redefine America first as hemisphere first. That

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Speaker 1: will suddenly rationalize taking the resources of another country, the

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Speaker 1: oil in Venezuela, for instance. So that only adds to

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Speaker 1: the anxiety. It only adds to the uncertainty, and it

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Speaker 1: only I think makes us all a bit less safe.

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Speaker 1: Are we are? We are less safe today than when

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump wasn't president. The world is less safe. The

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Speaker 1: world was safer before he took office. Maybe the world

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Speaker 1: wasn't as it wasn't just in a lot of places.

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Speaker 1: And this isn't to say he hasn't stumbled into doing

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Speaker 1: the right thing in certain in certain points of his presidency,

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Speaker 1: like getting the cease fire in Israel and gossm But

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Speaker 1: his actions have put America more in harm's way, not less,

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Speaker 1: And his actions domestically have goaded more Americans to go

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Speaker 1: after each other. That's just a fact. Is it directly

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Speaker 1: his fault or is it us? Is it us behaving

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Speaker 1: this way? We don't have to take our cues from him,

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Speaker 1: but he is certain creating an environment that he hopes

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Speaker 1: this is what happens. He remembered what I think as

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Speaker 1: a bug dividing America. Some in his administration see as

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Speaker 1: a feature that division means more power and more influence.

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Speaker 1: When division, all it does is eventually erode away all

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Speaker 1: of our freedoms. So we'll see what happened. He's trying

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Speaker 1: to remake parts of the world order. He's trying to

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Speaker 1: redraw norms. He's trying to personalize power. He's trying to

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Speaker 1: put a name on this era, from trade to alliances

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Speaker 1: to rhetoric about borders and maps and sovereignty. This presidency

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Speaker 1: is pushing hard to basically upend the entire post Cold

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Speaker 1: War assumption that defined American leadership for the last forty years,

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Speaker 1: arguably defined American leadership since post World War Two. History

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Speaker 1: is going to render this verdict, and we'll see how

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Speaker 1: it turns out. But here's the thing. It doesn't feel

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Speaker 1: like there's a middle ground verdict available here, does it

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Speaker 1: this era is going to be remembered either as the

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Speaker 1: beginning of something necessary or the beginning of something destructive.

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Speaker 1: And I think because we realize there's only probably two

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Speaker 1: paths here, that binary choice only adds to the anxiety

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Speaker 1: we're all feeling. And I'm sorry to add to your

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Speaker 1: anxiety by sort of maybe giving you an explanation for it.

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Speaker 1: But it's the it's the world we live in. We

429
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 1: also have this split reality that we're all living in

430
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: because there's an America that's on social media that looks

431
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 1: like it is on the brink of civil war. Right,

432
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: just watching the left and right go after each other

433
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: arguing over the facts and the narrative of what happened

434
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: in Minneapolis really makes you feel uncomfortable, like, oh my god,

435
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: what is social media going to do to us? And

436
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: then there's the America experience in the real world where

437
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: it doesn't feel anywhere near that. Right, it does feel

438
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: as if if we could all get off social media

439
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: and touch grass, that maybe we would be in a

440
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: slightly better place. But it isn't all now an online situation, right,

441
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: because you have moments, flashpoints. The shooting in Minneapolis involving

442
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: an ice officer at this protest. This one event has

443
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: enormous symbolic weight. It's the kind of moment that makes

444
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 1: people think, are we one more incident away from something spiraling?

445
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: All of this feels like tender. It feels like the

446
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: conditions exist where a spark could matter far more than

447
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: it should. And you sometimes there are political leaders that

448
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: almost seem to be embracing searching for this spark. Watching

449
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 1: jd Vance go borderline unhinged in the White House press

450
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: room trying to defend the the ICE officer's decision to

451
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:17,920
Speaker 1: respond to a protester with lethal force couldn't be any

452
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: less American. And then we're going to sit here and

453
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 1: lecture another country for killing protesters if we're if we

454
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: are not protecting our own citizens' First Amendment rights, constitutional rights,

455
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: we are no better than any of these other authoritarian regimes.

456
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: And that is something that has gotten lost with some

457
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: elected officials and that and look, you may not like

458
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: the protesters who are protesting the policies that are behind

459
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: these ICE rates. And I'm trying really hard here, and

460
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: I would I would I would like I would like

461
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: folks to try hard to The issue isn't whether there

462
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: should be ICE or not ICE. ICE is not the problem.

463
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: It's the leadership at Homeland Security. It's the policies that

464
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: are being implemented that ICE is following. It's the recruitment

465
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 1: process for ICE officers that clearly is training them to

466
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: treat fellow American citizens as threats, not as constituents. But

467
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: I do think you should separate out. This isn't ICE

468
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: isn't the problem. It's the leadership of ICE that's the problem.

469
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: We should have border patrol and we should be keeping

470
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 1: track of who comes into our country and who isn't

471
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: who shouldn't be in our country.

472
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 2: But how we.

473
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 1: Enforce the law well sends a message of who we

474
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: are as a country, who we are as a people.

475
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: Are we a democracy?

476
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 2: And the way.

477
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: These ICE officers at least are behaving, it is clear

478
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: they have poor training because again, why did they immediate

479
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 1: go to shoot to kill? And I understand that there's

480
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: a pro you don't ever draw your weapon if you're

481
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: not gonna shoot to kill. There's this mindset, right, which

482
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: is a bit of a military mindset that shouldn't always

483
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: be used for suburban neighborhoods. But there's not a lot

484
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 1: of evidence, and again he feared for his life. The

485
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: training should be to make sure that car can't be

486
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 1: used to kill you if you're truly worried about that.

487
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: But I don't think there's any evidence that anybody shot

488
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: at the tires to disable the vehicle without having to

489
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: kill more people. In fact, doing what this officer did

490
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: actually put more people's lives in danger. By shooting the driver,

491
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: her weight falls onto the gas pedal and then puts

492
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: more people's lives in danger. So this is a situation

493
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: where you're supposed to be a de escalator. If you're

494
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 1: in federal law enforcement, any law enforcement, you're supposed to

495
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: be a de escalator. But instead this person chose to escalate.

496
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: And of course the recording that even DHS didn't hide,

497
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: where an officer is heard calling the deceased woman and

498
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: effing bitch. You now know the mindset that is in

499
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 1: these officers. So again I understand the anger that's out

500
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: there with some that says abolish ice, and I think

501
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: some of you might argue it's the whole institution's been poisoned. Look,

502
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: it is the leadership and the training. If we get

503
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 1: rid of it, we're going to bring something similar in

504
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: its place, and if you're not advocating for that, you're

505
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: going to end up losing the larger argument on that too.

506
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: I'm just making an obvious political point here. Whether you

507
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: may not like that point, but it's I think it

508
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: plays out as pretty factually correct. Now, here's the thing.

509
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 1: We've been here before, kind of sort of right after

510
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: the fall of the Berlin Wall. Through much of the nineties,

511
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: the global order felt like it was shifting constantly. Old

512
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: assumptions collapse, new systems emerged. There was a time we

513
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: thought Russia was going to be one of our closest allies.

514
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: There was real optimism. There was a lot of confusion

515
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: as well. But here's another uncomfortable truth, and it's perhaps

516
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: why we're in the situation we're in now. We didn't

517
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: get that transition right. And I think now the longer

518
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 1: we go, the longer the Ukraine War goes, the longer

519
00:32:55,040 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: our instability grows, the longer we have questions about globalism.

520
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 1: I think the fair that the critique is that we

521
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: didn't get this right, because if we had, we probably

522
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: wouldn't be living with this much unresolved anger and instability

523
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: at the moment. Some of the assumptions we made about globalization, democracy, institutions, inevitability,

524
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: they didn't hold. So look, history never offers clean handoffs.

525
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 1: It offers messy middle chapters. And it's very possible that

526
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: what we thought was an ending in the nineties was

527
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: actually a beginning that we totally misunderstood, which brings me

528
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: to the voters, because the voters are going to have

529
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: their say during this year of living dangerously, because right

530
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: now it feels like we're on a collective roller coaster.

531
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 1: When you know that feeling when you're on a roller

532
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: coaster for too long, especially one you didn't choose, you

533
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: just wanted to stop. You just want to get off

534
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: the ride because when you're on it, you don't feel

535
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 1: in control of anything. So we've been living through this

536
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: vote against politics roller coaster for almost two decades now

537
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 1: that have been driven more by disgust than belief, more

538
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: about stopping something than building something. And I think we're

539
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: about to have another one yet again in twenty twenty six.

540
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: But here's the deeper question beneath the service, and this

541
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 1: is what I'm going to you know, in a year

542
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: of living dangerously, hopefully we can find some leaders who

543
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: have a vision of getting us through this, and hopefully

544
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: we'll find a leader or two that can offer voters

545
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,720
Speaker 1: a version of change that doesn't feel like chaos. Donald

546
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: Trump was a change agent, but he's been a chaotic

547
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: change agent, and he's made more things worse than better.

548
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: But he did shine a light on a lot of

549
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: things that were broken that need fixing, that should have

550
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 1: been addressed years ago. And you know, he may be

551
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 1: nothing but a complainer, but it doesn't mean he's not

552
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: right about some of these things to complain about. But voters,

553
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: you know, we are fickle because we want two things

554
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: at the same time that are very difficult to bring

555
00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: stability and change. Politicians are never good about build delivering

556
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 1: both simultaneously. It's very difficult. You're either a change agent

557
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 1: or you're a stabilizing force. It's hard to be both

558
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 1: in this current way our politics work, especially in the

559
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 1: communications side. So let me leave you with this thought,

560
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 1: and that is, I think it's going to be bad

561
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: politics to be on the side of chaos. And it's

562
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: been true, right Donald Trump's chaos led to Democratic victories

563
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 1: In twenty eighteen. Donald Trump's chaos and handling COVID led

564
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: to Joe Biden's presidency in twenty twenty. But Joe Biden's

565
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 1: chaos led to a return to Donald Trump. Right, we

566
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: don't like chaos. It's going to be good politicans to

567
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: be on the side of calm instability. Right now, Donald

568
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: Trump is neither calm nor stable. That's a fact that

569
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: is not going and so I would be hesitant to

570
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: be on the side of a force that is trying

571
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: to do their own version of disruption. You got to

572
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: figure out how to create stable disruption if such a

573
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 1: thing exists. That said, calm doesn't mean stasis, stability doesn't

574
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: mean restoration, and forward doesn't mean reckless. So we'll see

575
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,240
Speaker 1: if there is anybody out there, any either political party

576
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: that actually can articulate a vision that says, yes, the

577
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: system needs to be changed. No, chaos isn't a strength. No,

578
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: we're not going backwards. And yes, here's what forward actually

579
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: looks like. Because if we don't get out of this loop,

580
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: we're going to continue to be defaulting to vote against

581
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: politics until at some point a group of voters decide

582
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: politics isn't working. Let's go down the authoritarian route. We

583
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: already have elements on the right that have given up

584
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 1: on small D democracy. They are fully embracing Peter Thiel

585
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: JD Vance are part of this Don't let them fool you.

586
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 1: That is a wing of the part Elon Musk, this

587
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: sort of the Silicon Valley red pillars. None of them

588
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 1: believe in small DE democracy, not a single one of

589
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 1: them a wan, you know, and that is should scare

590
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: the but Jesus out of most of it. I don't

591
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: think Donald Trump necessarily ascribes to all that, but he

592
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: is so easily manipulated by money that he'll ascribe to

593
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: whoever will fund him. But that is something that I

594
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: think the more we fail at solving problems in a

595
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 1: small D democratic society, the more you will see some

596
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 1: of that anti you know, democracy doesn't work. Mindset take

597
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,399
Speaker 1: hold on the left, just as we've seen it take

598
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: hold on the right. Because there's always political physics. What

599
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 1: starts on one side of the aisle almost always shows

600
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 1: up on the other side of the isle at some form.

601
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: Sometimes it's reactive, but it always seems to show up.

602
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 1: So are we going to be okay? I don't have

603
00:37:54,480 --> 00:38:00,439
Speaker 1: any answer. I think America will eventually be okay. This moment,

604
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: we're not so Okay, politics at twenty twenty six is

605
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: going to change us a lot. How it changes us,

606
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: I think is a total unknown. We are living in

607
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 1: a year. We are going to live a year of

608
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 1: living dangerously due to our domestic politics, due to the

609
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: global uncertainty, due to this great power competition, a spark

610
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: of some sort of violent military clash. The sparks are everywhere,

611
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: and we don't know which one of them is going

612
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: to turn into an out of control wildfire and which

613
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 1: one of them proves to be a total and complete

614
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 1: done So. It's not the greatest way to ring in

615
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: the quote unquote new year, but I think it's the

616
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 1: most honest way to ring in to start this year,

617
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: because I think that's that's where we are. It's not

618
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 1: where any of us want to be, no matter which

619
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: side of the political eye, none of us, I think,

620
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: enjoy living with this much anxiety. I don't doesn't appear

621
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:09,319
Speaker 1: we have the leaders to meet this moment. And this

622
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: is not just to criticize Donald Trump. I don't see

623
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 1: it on the left either right now. But guess what,

624
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, we're holding auditions America. America's looking for

625
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: a forward looking leader who will bring stability and change

626
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: and actually gives a damn about all Americans, regardless of

627
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 1: others they're super liberal or super conservative. That's something we

628
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: haven't had in a while. Having good life insurance is

629
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 1: incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was sixteen

630
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,760
Speaker 1: when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.

631
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother,

632
00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: single mother, now widow, myself sixteen to figure out how

633
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 1: am I going to pay for college? And lo and behold.

634
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: My dad had one life insurance policy that we found

635
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 1: wasn't a lot, but it was important at the time,

636
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,720
Speaker 1: and it's why I was able to go to college.

637
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: Little did he know how important that would be in

638
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: that moment. Well guess what. That's why I am here

639
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 1: to tell you about Etho's life. They can provide you

640
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: with peace of mind knowing your family is protected even

641
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 1: if the worst comes to pass. Ethos is an online

642
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy, all

643
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655
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:16,880
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656
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,840
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657
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about, especially

658
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. Before I get to

659
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: my interview today, which is with Mark Zandy, my sort

660
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: of quarterly check in. As I joke, he is an

661
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: SNL five timer now with me podcast five timer, probably

662
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: even more than five times if you go back to

663
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 1: the old podcast. But essentially we haven't talked with him

664
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 1: since the start of the fourth quarter of the economic

665
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,240
Speaker 1: year last year, so we're starting with the first quarter,

666
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:52,240
Speaker 1: and he paints a I think you'll see he paints

667
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: an unsatisfying picture of an economy that you know, it

668
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 1: feels like it's going to keep on keeping on, but

669
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 1: there is plenty of risk that we need to be

670
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 1: aware of. But before we get to there, a reader

671
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 1: sent me a note on social media that I thought

672
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 1: was quite good and he said, and he said, you know,

673
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: he's a fan of the historical context that I like

674
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 1: to bring to this podcast. And he said, hey, have

675
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:22,439
Speaker 1: you thought there's an interesting thought exercise out there about

676
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 1: what happened in Minneapolis that might be worth talking about?

677
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 1: And it was Ruby Ridge. Well, I did my own

678
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 1: deep dive on Ruby Ridge. I was sort of took

679
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: place early in my political reporting career, literally the first

680
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 1: year I started working full time covering politics. And I

681
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: will say it's a pretty I think it's a worthwhile comparison.

682
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: So I wanted to spend a few minutes putting the

683
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 1: two stories together. It's a good thought exercise, and it

684
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: isn't going to be an exercise that's here to declare

685
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: heroes or villain but it's simply to examine how we

686
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 1: process federal power depending on whose ox is getting gored.

687
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 1: Because one of the hardest things in politics, right Now

688
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 1: I was admitting when our own personal reactions are shaped

689
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 1: less by facts than by what tribe we're a member of.

690
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 1: So to do that, let's do a quick history lesson.

691
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 1: This is not my official Toodcast time machine. I got

692
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 1: something else for you after the Mark Xandy interview, but

693
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 1: I want to do you know what's happening in Minneapolis.

694
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 1: I think is something that if the federal government doesn't

695
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: get religion about transparency and an investigation in honesty, soon

696
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: it's going to do some lasting damage that will be

697
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 1: hard to online. So I want to take you back

698
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 1: to an incident that many on the right are well

699
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: aware of. It's called Ruby Ridge. Ruby Ridge was not

700
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 1: actually a single event. It was the end of a long,

701
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 1: escalating standoff. It actually began in nineteen eighty nine nineteen

702
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: ninety when federal authorities accused a gentleman by the name

703
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: of Weaver of selling two sought off shotguns to an

704
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: ATF in format. Weaver missed a court date. Now there's

705
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 1: still a dispute over whether the notice was confusing or mishandled,

706
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: but missing the court date triggered a warrant being issued

707
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: for his arrest. The circumstances here matter because the original

708
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:28,919
Speaker 1: offense was nonviolent, and everything that followed escalated far beyond that.

709
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 1: Sounds familiar right Minneapolis. The conversation between the ice officers

710
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 1: and misgood. But I'll continue so. In August of nineteen

711
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: ninety two, US marshals were surveilling Weaver's remote cabin in Idaho.

712
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 1: A confrontation occurred involving Weaver's teenage son and a family friend.

713
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: A federal marshal was killed, and that meant the FBI's

714
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: hostage Rescue team took over. Now, the FBI adopted site

715
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 1: specific rus rules of engagement. It was not standard policy,

716
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: and it turned out to be very controversial once the

717
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: investigation surfaced this fact. The rules effectively allowed agents to

718
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 1: shoot any armed adult male seen outside the cabin. Eventually,

719
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 1: the Justice Department would acknowledge that this was a constitutionally

720
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 1: flawed policy. Then, on August twenty second, nineteen ninety two,

721
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: an FBI sniper named Laan Harichi fired two shots. The

722
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 1: second shot killed a woman named Vicki Weaver, Randy Weaver's wife,

723
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:41,959
Speaker 1: as she stood behind the cabin door holding her infant daughter.

724
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 1: A mother holding a baby was killed by a federal sniper.

725
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 1: Now let's get to the aftermath and the accountability. Unlike

726
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: what we saw in Minneapolis this week, the federal government

727
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 1: did not deny the need for an investigation. In fact,

728
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 1: there were multiple inquiries the Department of Justice, congressional inquiries,

729
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: internal FBI reviews. The Weaver family in fact received a

730
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 1: three point one million dollar civil settlement. An FBI official

731
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: would later go to prison for destroying evidence that was

732
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 1: related to the case. Now it's worth noting, and some

733
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: of you already know this if you're well educated about

734
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 1: sort of different, sort of ideological fights between the right

735
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 1: and the federal government. Ruby Ridge became a symbol, especially

736
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: on the right, of federal overreach, secrecy, and a government

737
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 1: circling the wagons. So here's why Ruby Ridge lodged so

738
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 1: deeply in conservative memory. It reinforced the idea of a

739
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: deep state abusing power. It fed militia movements and distrust

740
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: of federal law enforcement. This incident was a recruiting tool,

741
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 1: and importantly, even the federal government eventually conceded that something

742
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 1: had gone wrong procedurally, which one could argue might have

743
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: helped de escalate the situation. Unlike what we see right

744
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 1: now with Homeland Security, the government George HW. Bush's government,

745
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: by the way, Bill Barr's Justice Department, back in nineteen

746
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 1: ninety two, ninety one, and ninety two, the government there

747
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: accepted the premise that this incident demanded scrutiny. Now let's

748
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: fast forward more than thirty years to Minneapolis. Obviously the

749
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 1: cases aren't identical. There's different contexts, there's different agencies, there's

750
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 1: different facts that should still be under investigation. But the

751
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 1: reaction does tell us something. A federal agent kills a

752
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 1: civilian during an enforcement action, video circulates almost immediately, and

753
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 1: before investigations are complete, you have national political figures defining

754
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: the victim, not just the incident, right, Christy Nome calling

755
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 1: this person a terrorist, the domestic terrorist, and of course

756
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: jad Evange pouring gasoline on this fire. So here we

757
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 1: had a case where the narrative solidifies first. The fact

758
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 1: finding comes later, if it comes at all. So at

759
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 1: Ruby Ridge, the government, a Republican administration, eventually said we

760
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,799
Speaker 1: need to look at this. In Minneapolis, we have not

761
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 1: yet seen the same institutional humility. There's been no equivalent

762
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,360
Speaker 1: of an independent commission. There's been no immediate acknowledgment that

763
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:40,760
Speaker 1: procedures themselves may be at issue here. That difference matters

764
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 1: as much as the shooting itself. So here's the uncomfortable part.

765
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 1: In nineteen ninety two, many on the right saw a

766
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 1: victim of federal tyranny. In twenty twenty six, many of

767
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 1: those same voices instinctively are defending the use of federal

768
00:48:55,000 --> 00:49:00,760
Speaker 1: force because the target doesn't agree with them as a liberal.

769
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:07,320
Speaker 1: This is somehow she was protesting what Ice was doing. That,

770
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 1: somehow for some people is serving as a well she

771
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 1: got what she asked for. Of course, now many on

772
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 1: the left who wants trusted federal institutions now see a

773
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 1: victim where others see justification. There should be a huge

774
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:31,879
Speaker 1: moment for the libertarian right to welcome new adherents from

775
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 1: the left. BENI, we had the same federal power, same

776
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: legal shields, by the way, and a different political reaction.

777
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 1: What change wasn't the law. What change was who we

778
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:48,399
Speaker 1: identify with. And this is the bigger lesson. This isn't

779
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 1: about equating the two tragedies. Two mothers were killed by

780
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 1: a federal officer, one in Ruby Ridge, one in Minneapolis.

781
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:00,839
Speaker 1: I'm just simply asking whether we still believe the same

782
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: rules should apply no matter who's in the crosshairs. Ruby

783
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 1: Ridge taught us a federal power demands scrutiny even when

784
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 1: agents believe they're acting in good faith. The real question

785
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 1: today is whether we still believe that or only when

786
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 1: it's politically convenient. But the behavior right now, particularly of Christina,

787
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 1: of Tom Holman, I mean, think about Tom Holman, putting

788
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 1: him out there as a as a defender of this

789
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 1: the minute you don't, the minute you politicize the rule

790
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: of law, which Donald Trump has done. Right, if you

791
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 1: attack cops at January sixth, you get pardoned by Donald Trump.

792
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: If you simply protest a law enforcement action in Minneapolis,

793
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 1: you can get killed. And it's okay. If Donald Trump,

794
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 1: Christine no jd Vers want Americans to respect ice and

795
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 1: respect their policy decisions, they have to respect the constitutional

796
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 1: rights of every single person in this country. As guess

797
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: who has constitutional rights, not just citizens, but everybody in

798
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 1: this country. And if we can't show ourselves that we

799
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 1: live by these truisms, who are we to tell Iran

800
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: what they're doing is wrong? Who are we to tell

801
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:36,959
Speaker 1: Venezuela and the Maduro regime that what they're doing is wrong.

802
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 1: Who are we to tell the Cubans that what they're

803
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,240
Speaker 1: doing is wrong? Who are we to tell the Chinese

804
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:46,760
Speaker 1: that we're there when we're exhibiting behavior that can be

805
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 1: used as what aboutism by our international call them competitors

806
00:51:56,520 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 1: or potential adversaries, then we lose who we are. So

807
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:17,919
Speaker 1: I put that one in there today because I thought

808
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 1: it was a really smart thought exercise, And I would

809
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: just challenge my friends and the right think about the

810
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: facts of Ruby Ridge, think about everything, and tell me

811
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: how the same level of scrutiny that many on the

812
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 1: right demanded of the federal government and got from the

813
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 1: federal government due to the actions at Ruby Ridge they

814
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 1: applied directly right here at the actions and the questionable

815
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 1: actions of what happened with Ice. And if you are

816
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 1: not interested in a full, transparent investigation that includes both

817
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 1: federal and state authorities, then you clearly have no interest

818
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 1: in getting to the truth. And if you have no

819
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 1: interest in getting to the truth, well I would argue

820
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,840
Speaker 1: you yourself have ceased to be an American in good standing.

821
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: All right, let's sneak in a break, and when we

822
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 1: come back, let's talk economy with my friend, mister Mark Sandy.

823
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 2: Well joining me now?

824
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:23,799
Speaker 1: Is uh It's it's the equivalent of the SNL five

825
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: time hosting club. It's the todcast guest club. Here it's

826
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 1: Mark Sandy, cheap economist at Moody, mister Sandy. It's good

827
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 1: to see you. Todd is a huge That's okay.

828
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 2: It happens.

829
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 3: This is the beauty of two first names. But you

830
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 3: must get called Sandy. Hey, yeah, all the time, all

831
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 3: the time. Hey Todd, Hey Chuck. Yeah, it's good to

832
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 3: be with you. Sorry, it's been a long week.

833
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: It's and this is you know, five pm Eastern Time

834
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,240
Speaker 2: on a Friday, so I'm a little burned.

835
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 1: Here we are, and look, I've I've said this before

836
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 1: about every quarter, you know, I'd love I like checking

837
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: in with you to see where we are. And in fact,

838
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 1: the last time was the beginning of the fourth quarter

839
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 1: of last year. We're now at the beginning of the

840
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 1: fourth quarter of the first year. And I'll be honest,

841
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: sort of first week of October of twenty twenty five,

842
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:16,319
Speaker 1: it felt like this was an economy we're not sure

843
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: where it's headed. It feels like recession was at an

844
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:23,800
Speaker 1: elevated level, fast forward three months later, it feels like

845
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 1: there's a lot of optimism about the current state of

846
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 1: the economy. Am I just reading the wrong headlines? What

847
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 1: say you? What does the numbers say? How do you

848
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: feel January of twenty twenty six compared to what you

849
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:37,719
Speaker 1: might have felt a quarter ago?

850
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's fair to say there's I feel

851
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 2: a little bit better about the economy than I did

852
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 2: three months ago. You know, it's hard. You know. The

853
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 2: thing is, the stock market kind of colors perceptions, right,

854
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 2: at least in my world, right and we've seen a

855
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 2: lot of green on this screen. Stock market's just skyrocketed higher,

856
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 2: a lot of that artificial intelligence stocks, But the broader

857
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 2: market's up lat too, and that is powering a lot

858
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:05,359
Speaker 2: of growth and more than I The market's up more

859
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 2: than I would have anticipated in the spending that's resulting

860
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: from that, more than I thought. The other thing is

861
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 2: policy is going to kick into high gear here. We're

862
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 2: going to get a lot of fiscal juice. You know,

863
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 2: the one big beautiful bill Act cut Taxes is cutting

864
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 2: taxes for both the business and for individuals, and that's

865
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 2: that's now going to come into the economy.

866
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 1: How do you expect how is that going to show up?

867
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 1: Because I've heard this too that a lot of you've heard

868
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: Scott Passent say it and others trying to reassure the president, Hey,

869
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 1: don't worry, your political fortunes are going to turn around

870
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: because we're about to you know what you just said,

871
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 1: The one big beautiful Bill is about to shoot a

872
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 1: whole bunch of fiscal stimulus. Last time we had too

873
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 1: much fiscal stim We had too much fiscal stimulus, and

874
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 1: it gave us inflation. So how are how are you

875
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 1: anticipating that we'll start to see this in the economy.

876
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 2: Well, in two big ways. One, consumers will have more cash,

877
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 2: so the refunt checks are going to be a lot

878
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 2: larger this year than the last year, about one hundred

879
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 2: billion dollars more in cash to low, middle, high income households.

880
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 2: And that'll flow in here pretty quickly, beginning in February,

881
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 2: but March April may obviously well timed to influence the

882
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 2: economy in the lead up to the election. That's that's

883
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 2: going to be a lot of juice. And then the

884
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:31,880
Speaker 2: benefit to business is expensing, so they invest and they

885
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,239
Speaker 2: can expense all of that upfront and that's a big

886
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:36,279
Speaker 2: cost saving to them, and that means they'll do more

887
00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:39,399
Speaker 2: investment and you can already kind of feel it in

888
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 2: the orders for investment goods. So those two things are

889
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 2: going to provide a lot of support. Obviously, it's all

890
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 2: deficit finance. That's how you get the Jews, right. This

891
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 2: is added to the deficit. But and it's going to

892
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 2: be temporary. You know, it'll start to fade.

893
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 1: Prett Is this a one time thing? Are we going

894
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: to or this tax savings? I don't get the sense

895
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 1: that this is going to be long term.

896
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:03,879
Speaker 2: No, no, no, it's not going to do much longer run.

897
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 2: I mean, you could argue that the investment should have legs,

898
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:10,799
Speaker 2: you know, because you're building the capital stock and that

899
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 2: should help with productivity growth down road. But it's on

900
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 2: the margin. It's really providing a temporary boost to the company.

901
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 2: It's straight up fiscal stimulus, just like the fiscal stimulus

902
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 2: we've provided during the pandemic. Same kind of deal here.

903
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 2: And then also you've got the FED, who is predisposed

904
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 2: to the lower inst rates. There's a lot of debate

905
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 2: around what they're going to do and to what degree,

906
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:35,160
Speaker 2: but I think they will cut interest rates, you know,

907
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 2: before the year is over, and that should provide some

908
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 2: additional support.

909
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 1: Do you expect those still they very cautious cuts more

910
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 1: quarter points, no half points.

911
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. It's certainly up until the time

912
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 2: Chair Pale leaves the FED, and that's May of twenty

913
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:54,960
Speaker 2: twenty six. At that point we're going to get a

914
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 2: new feed chair appointed by the President. The President has

915
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 2: made it very clear that he wants lower interest rates

916
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: and that he should have some influence, if not be

917
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 2: able to dictate what interest rates should be. So it'd

918
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 2: be surprising if we don't see someone who's there that

919
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 2: isn't pushing hard for lower rates when they take that position.

920
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 2: You know, obviously it's a committee decision, so there are

921
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 2: other folks that aren't going to be on board with that.

922
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:20,160
Speaker 2: But I think at the end of the day, they'll

923
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 2: probably get some more rate cuts and that should help

924
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 2: support the economy also, And that's one reason why the

925
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 2: stock market is up, because the stock market is also anticipating,

926
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 2: you know, more rate cuts.

927
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 1: I remember the last time we talked about trying to

928
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 1: look at the stock market by disaggregating the AI companies

929
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 1: from sort of the non AI influenced companies and as

930
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 1: getting a sense of what is the health of the

931
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 1: current economy versus essentially what people are anticipating to be

932
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 1: the future economy. What do those two pictures look like.

933
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 2: They're very different. I mean, the AI stocks have gone

934
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:04,920
Speaker 2: skyward and they're moving up, you know, very significantly. They're

935
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 2: still still in heading higher here. So that's a big

936
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 2: part of what's gone on in the equity market or

937
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 2: the stock market over the past a little over a year.

938
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 2: The other stocks, it's it's more kind of pedestrian, you know,

939
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 2: it's kind of mid single digit kind of increases in

940
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 2: stock prices, so kind of what you would typically see.

941
00:59:26,080 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 2: But even there, you've gotten maybe a bit of support

942
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 2: from the tax cuts, right, The tax cuts help business,

943
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 2: it lowers their tax bill and the lower interest rates.

944
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 2: So you know, even the non AI stocks are up

945
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 2: pretty pretty strongly, but not you know, five six seventy

946
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 2: nine percent something like that, not twenty thirty forty fifty percent,

947
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 2: of which is what we've seen with the AI stocks.

948
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 1: In the past. Fiscal stimulus, whether coming directly from the

949
00:59:56,440 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 1: government or via the FED, the hope was it was

950
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 1: going to trigger job creation, which then in turn, would

951
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: obviously grow the economy. Where's the job creation coming from?

952
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 1: Because that doesn't seem as clear, Like I see all

953
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 1: the savings that companies are seeing, the investments that they

954
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:18,600
Speaker 1: want to make, but when you look at data centers,

955
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:23,920
Speaker 1: these are investments that create very few jobs, and a

956
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 1: lot of the architecture that's being invested in the world

957
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 1: of AI, other than the industrial part of building said

958
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 1: data center, there isn't a lot of job creation with it.

959
01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 1: And I know before we've discussed about the only place

960
01:00:36,720 --> 01:00:38,520
Speaker 1: that had been growing in twenty twenty five in the

961
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 1: job front or home healthcare workers. Where is there you

962
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:45,760
Speaker 1: know in this last three months is job I mean

963
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: that looked like pretty tepid job numbers to me that

964
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 1: we saw in December. Are we going to have a

965
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 1: jobless recovery? And I guess I don't know if we

966
01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 1: even call this or currently over now.

967
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I started the conversation by saying I

968
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 2: feel a little bit better about the economy than I

969
01:01:03,560 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 2: did three months ago, But if I completed the sentence,

970
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 2: I would say I still don't feel that good about

971
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 2: the economy. It still feels pretty fragile to me, and

972
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 2: that goes to the job market. We are not creating

973
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 2: any jobs, and that was the message in today's jobs

974
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 2: numbers for the month of December. You know, not only

975
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 2: did we not create many jobs during the month, but

976
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:26,600
Speaker 2: we sold downward revisions to previous months. And in fact,

977
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 2: if you look, the job market in terms of job

978
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 2: creation has going completely flatlined since Liberation Day, just you know,

979
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 2: can look at the data month to month. Right up

980
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 2: until April of twenty twenty five, when we had Liberation Day,

981
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 2: we were creating one hundred and sixty hundred seventy hundred

982
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:49,120
Speaker 2: te thousand jobs per month in the wake of that day,

983
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:53,120
Speaker 2: Beginning in May of the of twenty twenty five, we've flatlined.

984
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:55,400
Speaker 2: You know, some months a little up, someone's a little down.

985
01:01:56,280 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 2: And you're right, the job growth that we are getting

986
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:02,919
Speaker 2: is very concentrated in the healthcare sector, maybe a little

987
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 2: bit in leisure hospitality, but that's it. You know. In

988
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: the rest of the economy, we're not creating any jobs

989
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 2: and businesses broadly just aren't hiring. And so I don't

990
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 2: think that's a very comfortable place to be, you know,

991
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 2: I said fragile, I think that's the right word. It's

992
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 2: very fragile. Everything has got to stick to script here.

993
01:02:23,560 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 2: If anything kind of goes off script a little bit,

994
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 2: I think we got a problem.

995
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:33,160
Speaker 1: Is there even I mean in theory, where would job

996
01:02:33,200 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 1: creation come from in the world of AI.

997
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 2: Well, I mean one area would be the areas are

998
01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 2: getting rocked by tariffs. I mean manufacturing. Manufacturing is losing

999
01:02:45,080 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 2: jobs plus eight thousand jobs in December, has been losing

1000
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 2: jobs pretty steadily all the year. You know, that's because

1001
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 2: of the tariffs and the impact that said on supply

1002
01:02:53,360 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 2: chains and manufacturing activity, agriculture, anything agg related because that's

1003
01:02:57,680 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 2: getting rocked by the terriffs. Transportation, distribution, wholesaling all in

1004
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:07,480
Speaker 2: recession losing jobs because of those would be sectors that

1005
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 2: presumably would be adding to payrolls. And I think you

1006
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:18,160
Speaker 2: have general concern across the economy around the uncertainty created

1007
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 2: by policy, by the terrors by immigration policy, by deglobalization

1008
01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:25,160
Speaker 2: more generally, and so businesses have just been sitting on

1009
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:28,120
Speaker 2: their hands. So almost all industries are being affected by

1010
01:03:28,160 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 2: that to some degree or another.

1011
01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:32,439
Speaker 1: Is there any place where you have you know, think

1012
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 1: about let's let's take the immigration piece here a minute.

1013
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 1: There's been an obviously an aggressive effort by this administration

1014
01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:44,120
Speaker 1: to report folks that are undocumented. Has that? And I've

1015
01:03:44,160 --> 01:03:48,800
Speaker 1: seen the administration claim that US born new job you know,

1016
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 1: US born workers are getting more jobs today than they

1017
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:55,560
Speaker 1: did a year ago. I don't know where they're getting

1018
01:03:55,560 --> 01:04:00,360
Speaker 1: that stat What is the truthiness of that claim? One too?

1019
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 1: Are we seeing any Are we seeing more construction job

1020
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 1: openings or not?

1021
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 2: Well, the number of foreign born workers is falling. The

1022
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 2: number of native born workers is rising, but on the margin.

1023
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:20,480
Speaker 2: So you know, I don't know.

1024
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:22,920
Speaker 1: And is that really is it really rising or is

1025
01:04:22,920 --> 01:04:25,600
Speaker 1: it more flatline and just native born as collapsing.

1026
01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 2: It's more the latter, It's yeah, I mean, there might

1027
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 2: be a slight tilted up in native more and native born,

1028
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 2: but you know, I'm pressing, and it's certainly depressed relative

1029
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,280
Speaker 2: to where it was the last year in the year

1030
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:42,320
Speaker 2: before that. So it's not like we're seeing foreign native

1031
01:04:42,480 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 2: foreign born workers loser jobs and native born workers take

1032
01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 2: those jobs. That's not what's happening. I think that's a

1033
01:04:47,720 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 2: false narrative. They're just not feeling the feeling the jobs

1034
01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:54,480
Speaker 2: that you know, foreign born workers would typically take. Uh

1035
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 2: and uh, you know that that is restraining growth in

1036
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 2: jobs because you know, if we don't have workers of

1037
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 2: folks looking for work, which we don't because of the

1038
01:05:03,400 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 2: immigration policy, they can't be hired. They can't they can't

1039
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 2: turn into a job. And that's part of the story.

1040
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:12,040
Speaker 2: But the story goes beyond the labor supply. It also

1041
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 2: goes to labor demand, which we were talking about earlier.

1042
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:18,000
Speaker 2: That's the terrors, that's the uncertainty, that's the that's also

1043
01:05:18,080 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 2: AI starting to play a role as well in terms

1044
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 2: of you know, labor demand. So that's why unemployment is rising.

1045
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:25,680
Speaker 2: It's still low, but it's rising, right, I Mean.

1046
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 1: It seems logical if I ran a small business, I

1047
01:05:28,480 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 1: would our mid sized business I delay filling ahead for

1048
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:36,439
Speaker 1: as long as I can until I figure out how

1049
01:05:36,520 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 1: viable AI is, right, I mean, it's a pretty logical

1050
01:05:40,480 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 1: mindset that that employers are are in right now, are

1051
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:45,080
Speaker 1: they not.

1052
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:47,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's more a large company thing though,

1053
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 2: than a small company thing. I think large definitely large companies.

1054
01:05:51,680 --> 01:05:54,160
Speaker 2: I can attest to that personally. I mean, I know

1055
01:05:54,240 --> 01:05:57,560
Speaker 2: that is what's going on. It's not that, And this

1056
01:05:57,680 --> 01:05:59,720
Speaker 2: is why the economy is not in recession and why

1057
01:05:59,800 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 2: you know, we're moving, we're growing. It's that they're laying off.

1058
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:06,680
Speaker 2: It's not that they're doing that at least not.

1059
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 1: No, you don't see that. They're just not replacing. They're

1060
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:11,919
Speaker 1: just not older workers that leave. Maybe they're they're they're

1061
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 1: getting rid of expensive people, right I've I've heard I've

1062
01:06:15,440 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 1: heard rumors of that at various large entities and publicly

1063
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:21,200
Speaker 1: traded companies. But they're not they used to replace them.

1064
01:06:21,200 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 1: They're not actually replacing.

1065
01:06:22,480 --> 01:06:26,000
Speaker 2: These folks exactly. Hiring rates are, you know, way down

1066
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 2: that those are large companies, maybe some midsize coming smaller companies.

1067
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:34,640
Speaker 2: I think they're they're getting you know, hit by things

1068
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:37,840
Speaker 2: like the terriffs, they're hurt by the immigration policy. They

1069
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 2: they rely very heavily on immigrant workers. You know, think

1070
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:43,720
Speaker 2: about all those small manufacturers that you know, operate in

1071
01:06:43,720 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 2: the country or constructing, the construction trades, retailing, you know, leisure, hospitality,

1072
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:52,880
Speaker 2: these industries, A lot of small companies they rely on

1073
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,920
Speaker 2: those the immigrant workers, and they can't they can't get them,

1074
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:58,000
Speaker 2: they can't find them. So that's and they're and they're

1075
01:06:58,040 --> 01:07:00,200
Speaker 2: nervous about all of that. What does it mean? Is

1076
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:01,840
Speaker 2: it going? How's it going? Is it going to change.

1077
01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 2: Is it going to get worse? Is going to get better?

1078
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:05,920
Speaker 2: So I don't in that in the small business world,

1079
01:07:05,960 --> 01:07:07,760
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a I I think it's these

1080
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 2: other things that are causing Yeah, I really think that

1081
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 2: that's the case.

1082
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, So let's talk about the trade deficit. It went down.

1083
01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 1: Is that really good for the economy or not? Well,

1084
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 1: I mean right, a shrinking trade deficit is not always

1085
01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:27,840
Speaker 1: translated into a positive economic uh output.

1086
01:07:27,920 --> 01:07:33,960
Speaker 4: No, yeah, you're you're referencing the last data point we

1087
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 4: got this week and was trade trade numbers for the

1088
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 4: I think it was the month of buck.

1089
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 2: Yes, the month of October really wacko. Uh. You know,

1090
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 2: we saw the trade deficit declined for two key reasons. One,

1091
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:52,240
Speaker 2: the exports of so called non monetary gold, so gold

1092
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:56,520
Speaker 2: that's held by h private individuals and companies, not the

1093
01:07:56,560 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 2: central bank, not the reserve exports of that surge. And

1094
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:05,560
Speaker 2: the other thing is that imports of pharmaceuticals collapsed. And

1095
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 2: this goes all this goes to the tariffs and the

1096
01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:11,560
Speaker 2: scrambling of a trade as a result of that. So

1097
01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 2: the month of October is just I don't know, I

1098
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:16,720
Speaker 2: throw it out the window. The better thing to do

1099
01:08:17,520 --> 01:08:20,719
Speaker 2: is just take a look at the trade deficit through

1100
01:08:21,520 --> 01:08:25,200
Speaker 2: year to day through October this year in twenty twenty five,

1101
01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 2: and compare that to twenty twenty four, and the trade

1102
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:29,719
Speaker 2: deficit is actually a little bit larger.

1103
01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:33,160
Speaker 1: It's not suck, No, that's just you just think that's

1104
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:36,160
Speaker 1: bad data. I mean, I used to in the polling world.

1105
01:08:36,600 --> 01:08:38,920
Speaker 1: We'd get a weird you know, sometimes you get a

1106
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:41,599
Speaker 1: weird subgroup data. You know, you might get and our

1107
01:08:41,680 --> 01:08:44,479
Speaker 1: pollsters would say, unless you see it two months in

1108
01:08:44,520 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 1: a row, ignore it.

1109
01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:48,439
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, so I would ignore this, you know. I

1110
01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:51,160
Speaker 2: take year to date, you know, year to day throughout

1111
01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:54,439
Speaker 2: ten months. That probably gives that definitely gives us a

1112
01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:56,320
Speaker 2: clearer sense of what's going on, and the deficit has

1113
01:08:56,400 --> 01:08:59,479
Speaker 2: not changed so that the terriffs aren't if that was

1114
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:01,960
Speaker 2: the goal. Right, so far, there's a lot of script

1115
01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:04,160
Speaker 2: to be written here. Obviously this is all early days,

1116
01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:06,880
Speaker 2: but least so far that's not that goal is not

1117
01:09:06,920 --> 01:09:07,519
Speaker 2: being achieved.

1118
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:10,519
Speaker 1: Well, and then let's get to the reality of the tariffs,

1119
01:09:10,520 --> 01:09:14,880
Speaker 1: because if what he pledged to do on limited ration

1120
01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:19,120
Speaker 1: day is what he did, I'm guessing we would be

1121
01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:23,519
Speaker 1: in recession by now. Yeah, but because he's essentially created

1122
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:27,679
Speaker 1: so many exemptions and he's pulled back some things, particularly

1123
01:09:27,720 --> 01:09:34,280
Speaker 1: on food. What has been the impact of the tariffs

1124
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:41,320
Speaker 1: other than making private industry crazy trying to navigate him.

1125
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:44,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. The way I totally agree, and the way I

1126
01:09:44,400 --> 01:09:49,200
Speaker 2: would articulate that is by looking at the stated tariff rate.

1127
01:09:49,280 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 2: What President Trump is saying the tariff rates are going

1128
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:53,760
Speaker 2: to be, or what the administration says the tariff rates

1129
01:09:53,760 --> 01:09:56,599
Speaker 2: are going to be. You know, one hundred percent on China,

1130
01:09:56,640 --> 01:09:58,639
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty percent on China, seventy five percent

1131
01:09:58,720 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 2: on China, thirty percent on Korea, twenty five percent on

1132
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:05,479
Speaker 2: autos from Japan. Those are stated tariffs. That's kind of

1133
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 2: in what's being articulated. Then you go look at the

1134
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:14,200
Speaker 2: actual tariff revenue that's being generated, you know, what actually

1135
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:17,800
Speaker 2: is being raised, and you get a very different picture.

1136
01:10:17,920 --> 01:10:23,120
Speaker 2: It's ten percent effective teriff rate, which is not inconsequential, Chuck.

1137
01:10:23,240 --> 01:10:25,000
Speaker 2: I mean it was two percent at the start of

1138
01:10:25,000 --> 01:10:26,720
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. So you go from two percent to

1139
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:31,400
Speaker 2: ten percent. That means weaker growth. We talked about manufacturing

1140
01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:34,120
Speaker 2: and ag and transportation. It means higher inflation. That goes

1141
01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 2: to the affordability problems. We're paying more for imported product.

1142
01:10:37,320 --> 01:10:40,840
Speaker 2: That's happening, but it's not twenty five percent, it's not

1143
01:10:40,920 --> 01:10:43,240
Speaker 2: thirty five percent, it's not one hundred percent. And it

1144
01:10:43,240 --> 01:10:47,559
Speaker 2: could easily change in the next few weeks because supremer

1145
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:50,240
Speaker 2: is going to rule on the reciprocal tariffs and the

1146
01:10:50,320 --> 01:10:52,360
Speaker 2: legality of that, and it looks like they might strike

1147
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:54,240
Speaker 2: that down and then the effect of tariff rate will

1148
01:10:54,240 --> 01:10:55,880
Speaker 2: go from ten percent to five percent. So that's a

1149
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:59,000
Speaker 2: very different story, but it's happening an effect. But you're right,

1150
01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:01,920
Speaker 2: if we had actually got the stated tariffs, I think

1151
01:11:01,960 --> 01:11:12,320
Speaker 2: have been very difficult to avoid an outright economic downturn.

1152
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:16,120
Speaker 1: A big picture, I mean, what what is this economy?

1153
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:19,280
Speaker 1: And are we is it? Is it still? I mean

1154
01:11:19,280 --> 01:11:21,800
Speaker 1: it still feels like an economy. That is, if you

1155
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:25,240
Speaker 1: have some savings, you're doing pretty well. That that the

1156
01:11:25,360 --> 01:11:29,280
Speaker 1: K that the K shaped the economy where if you're

1157
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:31,639
Speaker 1: you know, if you're living paycheck to paycheck, it is harder.

1158
01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:35,120
Speaker 1: And if you've got a little bit of savings you're managing,

1159
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:39,799
Speaker 1: you're probably doing okay. Is that still that your outlook

1160
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:42,000
Speaker 1: for the next year? That this is what this economy

1161
01:11:42,040 --> 01:11:43,160
Speaker 1: is going to continue to look like.

1162
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:48,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if you look at the the economic elephant,

1163
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:53,599
Speaker 2: its totality in an abstract from uh, you know what's

1164
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:57,320
Speaker 2: going on across industry, sectors, regions, different parts of the

1165
01:11:57,360 --> 01:12:01,799
Speaker 2: income and wealth distribution. You know, the economy is is okay,

1166
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 2: although as I said, it's you know, very fragile. Things

1167
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:07,640
Speaker 2: need to stick the script here otherwise we're going to

1168
01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:10,040
Speaker 2: have a problem. But then when you touch different parts

1169
01:12:10,080 --> 01:12:11,920
Speaker 2: of the elephant, you're going to get a different, you

1170
01:12:11,920 --> 01:12:15,200
Speaker 2: know picture. So you picked one part of the elephant,

1171
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:18,760
Speaker 2: the income and wealth distribution, that's very skewed. And if

1172
01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:20,719
Speaker 2: you're at the top part of the income and wealth distribution,

1173
01:12:21,400 --> 01:12:24,360
Speaker 2: life is good financially, right. I mean, you have a job,

1174
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:27,800
Speaker 2: your wages have been rising, you're getting a bonus, you

1175
01:12:27,840 --> 01:12:30,840
Speaker 2: don't owe anything except maybe a mortgage Liane that you

1176
01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:33,320
Speaker 2: locked in during the pandemic. At two and a half three,

1177
01:12:33,320 --> 01:12:35,400
Speaker 2: three and a half percent. You're getting more on your

1178
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:37,720
Speaker 2: money market account than you're paying out on your mortgage.

1179
01:12:38,280 --> 01:12:40,400
Speaker 2: And you own a lot of stuff. You own your

1180
01:12:40,400 --> 01:12:43,720
Speaker 2: own home, you own stocks, you you know, you're you're

1181
01:12:43,800 --> 01:12:46,400
Speaker 2: sitting in a good spot. But if you're a folks

1182
01:12:46,479 --> 01:12:49,120
Speaker 2: in the bottom or middle part of the distribution, you know,

1183
01:12:49,160 --> 01:12:51,519
Speaker 2: it's a very different world. You don't stocks what I

1184
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:53,800
Speaker 2: don't own any stocks, right, And if you're lucky to

1185
01:12:53,840 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 2: own a home, if you're in the bottom part of

1186
01:12:55,800 --> 01:12:58,640
Speaker 2: the distribution, very unlikely. So and you know, you know,

1187
01:12:59,200 --> 01:13:01,519
Speaker 2: people in the bottom part of the distribution owe money

1188
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:05,920
Speaker 2: on cards, on auto loans, student loans, and so you

1189
01:13:05,960 --> 01:13:09,840
Speaker 2: know that part of what part of the elephant you're

1190
01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:13,120
Speaker 2: touching really does matter, you know, because you're getting these

1191
01:13:13,160 --> 01:13:17,040
Speaker 2: And that's why I think there's such why disparate views

1192
01:13:17,080 --> 01:13:19,599
Speaker 2: on how the economy is performing, and why there's such

1193
01:13:19,640 --> 01:13:23,080
Speaker 2: confusion around that, because it really does vary quite a bit.

1194
01:13:23,560 --> 01:13:25,120
Speaker 1: Well, and this, of course, you know when you hear

1195
01:13:25,160 --> 01:13:27,799
Speaker 1: about the phrase when I when you use a phrase

1196
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:30,080
Speaker 1: like politically tone deaf a lot of times these days,

1197
01:13:30,080 --> 01:13:32,880
Speaker 1: if you only are interacting in your bubble, you may

1198
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:35,880
Speaker 1: not really fully realize what the economy looks like. And

1199
01:13:35,920 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 1: of course that's this president is in a bubble. And

1200
01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:44,160
Speaker 1: you know, we know how he views a successful economy

1201
01:13:44,240 --> 01:13:49,680
Speaker 1: is not necessarily maybe how economist would view how the

1202
01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:50,400
Speaker 1: economy is going.

1203
01:13:50,720 --> 01:13:53,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally, And of course, we all have our own

1204
01:13:53,080 --> 01:13:54,920
Speaker 2: political prism as we look at the world through and

1205
01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:58,479
Speaker 2: that is influencing our perceptions here to a much greater

1206
01:13:58,600 --> 01:14:00,559
Speaker 2: degree than it has historically. And you can see it

1207
01:14:00,600 --> 01:14:03,080
Speaker 2: in this sentiment surveys that you know, you can look

1208
01:14:03,120 --> 01:14:07,080
Speaker 2: at how Republicans feel versus how independence or Democrats feel,

1209
01:14:07,120 --> 01:14:08,200
Speaker 2: and it's totally different.

1210
01:14:10,720 --> 01:14:12,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was just going to say that that is

1211
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:17,280
Speaker 1: made polling on the economy I think worthless. I used

1212
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:18,760
Speaker 1: to fight to get rid of the questions because I

1213
01:14:18,760 --> 01:14:22,599
Speaker 1: already know the result. Whoever is president, that party will

1214
01:14:22,600 --> 01:14:25,200
Speaker 1: think the economy is getting better, and then the other

1215
01:14:25,240 --> 01:14:29,519
Speaker 1: party will think it's getting worse. But consumer sentiment does

1216
01:14:29,560 --> 01:14:31,599
Speaker 1: strike me as different. I mean, I feel like that

1217
01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:36,679
Speaker 1: Michigan survey is a pretty honest, you know, it feels

1218
01:14:36,720 --> 01:14:39,320
Speaker 1: like it does sort of, at least directionally, let you

1219
01:14:39,479 --> 01:14:43,360
Speaker 1: know what people really think of this economy, and consumer

1220
01:14:43,439 --> 01:14:49,240
Speaker 1: sentiment continues to be kind of it's still underwater, right. Yeah.

1221
01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:51,680
Speaker 2: I think again, if you take a step back and

1222
01:14:51,680 --> 01:14:53,760
Speaker 2: look at the entirety of the elephant, and they'll get

1223
01:14:53,760 --> 01:14:56,080
Speaker 2: caught up in the parts of the elephant. You're right.

1224
01:14:56,120 --> 01:14:59,840
Speaker 2: I think the perceptions are that the economy is met,

1225
01:15:00,040 --> 01:15:02,840
Speaker 2: you know, it's just not doing what I expect it

1226
01:15:02,880 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 2: to do, at least not for me. And I think

1227
01:15:05,000 --> 01:15:10,200
Speaker 2: there's also a lot of ants around big picture issues,

1228
01:15:10,280 --> 01:15:13,400
Speaker 2: you know that you know, maybe because of the pandemic,

1229
01:15:13,479 --> 01:15:16,240
Speaker 2: we now are focused on things that are broader than ourselves.

1230
01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:19,000
Speaker 2: And when you do that, you get nervous pretty quickly.

1231
01:15:19,120 --> 01:15:22,080
Speaker 2: I mean, what's going on geopolitically?

1232
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:25,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, well, how do you factor that

1233
01:15:25,240 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 1: into an economic outlook? I mean, let's I mean, you know,

1234
01:15:28,800 --> 01:15:32,799
Speaker 1: we have a showdown with Europe over Greenland and NATO

1235
01:15:33,160 --> 01:15:38,000
Speaker 1: is suddenly gone. That feels like it isn't good for

1236
01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:41,080
Speaker 1: our economy. But I don't know how you how you

1237
01:15:41,160 --> 01:15:41,880
Speaker 1: price that in.

1238
01:15:42,439 --> 01:15:46,880
Speaker 2: Now you can't accept through these sentiment surveys. I mean,

1239
01:15:46,880 --> 01:15:49,719
Speaker 2: if they, as you say, they are capturing that ants,

1240
01:15:50,479 --> 01:15:53,240
Speaker 2: then we are picking that up and that's in our modeling.

1241
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:54,800
Speaker 2: And you know, but at the end of the day,

1242
01:15:55,120 --> 01:15:58,719
Speaker 2: that's what makes economic forecasting so difficult, right because it's

1243
01:15:58,760 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 2: it is driven by collogy sentiment. You know, events that

1244
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:05,920
Speaker 2: are inherently unpredictable, and that's why it's so difficult to

1245
01:16:05,920 --> 01:16:08,240
Speaker 2: get it right. You know, at least on a consistent basis.

1246
01:16:09,200 --> 01:16:13,600
Speaker 1: So compare the American economy with the rest of the world.

1247
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:17,400
Speaker 1: Who's doing better than us and who's doing worse than us?

1248
01:16:17,560 --> 01:16:20,600
Speaker 1: That should concern us. Uh.

1249
01:16:21,360 --> 01:16:23,280
Speaker 2: I think the entire world is kind of in the

1250
01:16:23,320 --> 01:16:26,719
Speaker 2: same place we are. You know, it's kind of growing.

1251
01:16:26,800 --> 01:16:30,240
Speaker 2: It's okay, it's growing, but it's just a very kind

1252
01:16:30,240 --> 01:16:35,160
Speaker 2: of fragile, tenuous kind of growth. I mean, China is

1253
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:38,400
Speaker 2: obviously the second largest economic player on the planet. They

1254
01:16:38,560 --> 01:16:40,840
Speaker 2: they've got you know, they're growing just like us, but

1255
01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:45,120
Speaker 2: they got their problems just like us. Different set of problems. Europe,

1256
01:16:45,240 --> 01:16:50,200
Speaker 2: same deal. They're growing depends on you know, which part

1257
01:16:50,240 --> 01:16:52,679
Speaker 2: of Europe you look at where you get the growth

1258
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:52,960
Speaker 2: or not.

1259
01:16:53,640 --> 01:16:57,679
Speaker 1: But the Eastern I'm still growing faster than Western Europe, or.

1260
01:16:57,760 --> 01:17:01,960
Speaker 2: Southern Europe is growing faster than Northern Europe, nor South

1261
01:17:02,320 --> 01:17:09,040
Speaker 2: Spain is doing great. Germany is still struggling, So very

1262
01:17:09,040 --> 01:17:11,080
Speaker 2: similar kind of dynamics there, and I think the same

1263
01:17:11,160 --> 01:17:15,120
Speaker 2: kind of general angs exists. And of course, you know,

1264
01:17:15,160 --> 01:17:19,439
Speaker 2: it's not surprising because the US is rapidly pulling away

1265
01:17:19,439 --> 01:17:21,920
Speaker 2: from the rest of the world, right, I mean, it's

1266
01:17:21,920 --> 01:17:26,360
Speaker 2: a big change or two in President Trump's first term.

1267
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:29,320
Speaker 2: It was, we were all about integrating with the rest

1268
01:17:29,320 --> 01:17:33,000
Speaker 2: of the world, globalization. We developed all the institutions to

1269
01:17:33,040 --> 01:17:35,800
Speaker 2: support that, and here we are now moving away from

1270
01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:37,640
Speaker 2: that as fast as possible. And I think that's just

1271
01:17:37,720 --> 01:17:39,840
Speaker 2: unnerving for the rest of the world to watch.

1272
01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:43,200
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, it really is just right. We spent

1273
01:17:43,320 --> 01:17:45,840
Speaker 1: arguably the fall of the Berlin Wall right starting with

1274
01:17:45,880 --> 01:17:49,960
Speaker 1: Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama. Every one of

1275
01:17:49,960 --> 01:17:54,280
Speaker 1: those presidents was for inte global integration. The right saw

1276
01:17:54,320 --> 01:17:57,120
Speaker 1: it as sort of inevitable, so let's be on the

1277
01:17:57,160 --> 01:18:00,560
Speaker 1: forefront of it. Obviously, Trump is the re spons is

1278
01:18:00,600 --> 01:18:03,000
Speaker 1: the whoa woa woe. And I always say, I've been

1279
01:18:03,040 --> 01:18:07,519
Speaker 1: saying nationalism is contagious. And when the largest, you know,

1280
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:12,040
Speaker 1: when the largest economy in the world goes goes inward,

1281
01:18:12,920 --> 01:18:16,160
Speaker 1: don't be surprised if everybody else starts turning inward as well.

1282
01:18:16,760 --> 01:18:20,360
Speaker 1: Is is that happening? Are you seeing that? Are we

1283
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:22,320
Speaker 1: seeing other countries decide, well, if we're going to start

1284
01:18:22,640 --> 01:18:24,880
Speaker 1: up in tariffs and we better protect this industry in

1285
01:18:24,920 --> 01:18:25,479
Speaker 1: our country.

1286
01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:28,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, same kind of dynamic. I mean, certainly China is

1287
01:18:28,960 --> 01:18:32,280
Speaker 2: a you know, obvious poster child for that. Sure, Yeah,

1288
01:18:32,320 --> 01:18:34,920
Speaker 2: but I do think that's happening everywhere in the world.

1289
01:18:35,280 --> 01:18:37,160
Speaker 2: And the other thing that's happening is the rest of

1290
01:18:37,200 --> 01:18:40,040
Speaker 2: the world is now trying to work with them each

1291
01:18:40,080 --> 01:18:44,440
Speaker 2: other independent of us. So you can see Europe striking

1292
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:47,519
Speaker 2: free trade deals, you know, with other parts of the world,

1293
01:18:47,840 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 2: which they might have done anyway, but certainly takes on

1294
01:18:50,840 --> 01:18:54,120
Speaker 2: a greater love importance now that they can't rely on

1295
01:18:54,160 --> 01:18:57,680
Speaker 2: the US as a trading partner. And but that, you know,

1296
01:18:57,760 --> 01:19:01,519
Speaker 2: creates all kinds of dislocations and smiths and angst. And

1297
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:03,600
Speaker 2: I think that's what we're in the middle of. And

1298
01:19:03,720 --> 01:19:07,839
Speaker 2: I think that's that's something that plagues the entire global economy.

1299
01:19:07,880 --> 01:19:10,760
Speaker 2: So when you ask who's doing well, hard to say

1300
01:19:10,760 --> 01:19:13,200
Speaker 2: anyone's doing all that well because they're all we're all

1301
01:19:13,240 --> 01:19:16,599
Speaker 2: dealing with this really dramatic change in the way the

1302
01:19:16,680 --> 01:19:18,600
Speaker 2: global economy is organized.

1303
01:19:19,439 --> 01:19:23,000
Speaker 1: And I assume, because look, I'm gonna I'm probably projecting

1304
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:24,800
Speaker 1: my own feelings on this, so let me let me

1305
01:19:24,880 --> 01:19:28,240
Speaker 1: ask it that way, then, simply, which is is part

1306
01:19:28,280 --> 01:19:33,240
Speaker 1: of this unsettled this sort of what you just describe,

1307
01:19:33,760 --> 01:19:37,120
Speaker 1: in part because the rest of the world hasn't decided

1308
01:19:37,160 --> 01:19:40,439
Speaker 1: if this is a permanent stance of America or just

1309
01:19:40,479 --> 01:19:42,919
Speaker 1: a temporary blip while Trump's in charge.

1310
01:19:43,960 --> 01:19:46,280
Speaker 2: I think they've come to the conclusion, or quickly come

1311
01:19:46,320 --> 01:19:49,479
Speaker 2: in to the collusion conclusion, that they need to uh

1312
01:19:49,840 --> 01:19:54,400
Speaker 2: prepare for a world that is global deglobalizing, and that

1313
01:19:54,600 --> 01:19:56,080
Speaker 2: the US is not going to be in the center

1314
01:19:56,160 --> 01:19:59,280
Speaker 2: of that of that global economy or that global financial system.

1315
01:19:59,320 --> 01:20:01,799
Speaker 2: And they got to figure that out. You know, maybe

1316
01:20:01,800 --> 01:20:05,000
Speaker 2: we get lucky from their perspective, they get lucky, and

1317
01:20:05,439 --> 01:20:08,000
Speaker 2: things kind of reverse, you know, on the other side

1318
01:20:08,000 --> 01:20:10,760
Speaker 2: of the next presidential election. But I think increasingly they're

1319
01:20:10,760 --> 01:20:15,840
Speaker 2: not counting on that They're they're making They're making decisions

1320
01:20:15,880 --> 01:20:18,200
Speaker 2: that I think are going to be pretty difficult to

1321
01:20:18,240 --> 01:20:22,280
Speaker 2: reverse going forward. I mean, I think it's understandable that

1322
01:20:22,400 --> 01:20:26,120
Speaker 2: they are worried about the reliability of the US, you know,

1323
01:20:26,200 --> 01:20:30,960
Speaker 2: going forward. I mean, they're seeing the really, uh the

1324
01:20:31,280 --> 01:20:35,000
Speaker 2: kind of the fragility of the kind of the American governance,

1325
01:20:35,360 --> 01:20:38,479
Speaker 2: the way we govern ourselves. Who would have thought that,

1326
01:20:38,640 --> 01:20:41,400
Speaker 2: you know, a president could do some of the things

1327
01:20:41,439 --> 01:20:44,200
Speaker 2: that are being done here. And I'm not even debating

1328
01:20:44,200 --> 01:20:46,120
Speaker 2: whether they're good or bad, just the fact that they're

1329
01:20:46,160 --> 01:20:49,800
Speaker 2: being done, right, and they're saying, oh my gosh, well

1330
01:20:50,040 --> 01:20:51,000
Speaker 2: I didn't.

1331
01:20:51,000 --> 01:20:53,559
Speaker 1: Know the US was the poster child for rules based

1332
01:20:53,880 --> 01:20:58,000
Speaker 1: Well yeah, no, no, no, no, there are rules for for you know,

1333
01:20:58,040 --> 01:20:59,719
Speaker 1: when we decide to go into a country.

1334
01:21:00,280 --> 01:21:06,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. To be Frank Chuck, I, I'm also surprised by

1335
01:21:06,120 --> 01:21:09,160
Speaker 2: all this. And so the rest of the world is saying, oh,

1336
01:21:09,880 --> 01:21:14,320
Speaker 2: I thought the US was on more solid ground than

1337
01:21:14,479 --> 01:21:17,120
Speaker 2: it actually is. And if that's the case, I don't

1338
01:21:17,120 --> 01:21:20,120
Speaker 2: care who the next president is because the next one

1339
01:21:20,120 --> 01:21:22,679
Speaker 2: after that could take a very different turn.

1340
01:21:23,520 --> 01:21:27,439
Speaker 1: Have you Well, I feel like Europe, at least the

1341
01:21:27,479 --> 01:21:32,080
Speaker 1: Western European leaders, right Germany, France, in the UK to

1342
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:36,679
Speaker 1: lesser extentedly, they seem to they seem to realize, hey,

1343
01:21:37,160 --> 01:21:39,640
Speaker 1: they've got to strength in the EU, they've got to

1344
01:21:39,680 --> 01:21:44,800
Speaker 1: strengthen what they're doing. But have you seen evidence that

1345
01:21:45,360 --> 01:21:49,920
Speaker 1: China has been able to take advantage of the US

1346
01:21:49,960 --> 01:21:52,719
Speaker 1: being in global retreat? Cannot No, I mean.

1347
01:21:52,600 --> 01:21:55,599
Speaker 2: They've got they have their own set of problems and issues, right,

1348
01:21:56,080 --> 01:21:59,800
Speaker 2: I mean, some cycle coal and some more structural. I mean,

1349
01:22:00,400 --> 01:22:03,040
Speaker 2: as they came into this with a real estate sector

1350
01:22:03,080 --> 01:22:05,840
Speaker 2: that was just a basket case that you know, we

1351
01:22:05,920 --> 01:22:08,840
Speaker 2: had our global financial crisis back fifteen years ago, the

1352
01:22:08,840 --> 01:22:11,800
Speaker 2: housing market collapse. They've been going through a similar kind

1353
01:22:11,840 --> 01:22:14,280
Speaker 2: of dynamic here in recent years and in the wake

1354
01:22:14,320 --> 01:22:17,360
Speaker 2: of the pandemic, and that has been a real problem for.

1355
01:22:17,360 --> 01:22:19,880
Speaker 1: This And they still have a youth unemployment problem too.

1356
01:22:19,920 --> 01:22:21,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, they do. I mean they've got all kinds of

1357
01:22:21,560 --> 01:22:25,040
Speaker 2: structural longer term structural issues. Is the demographic issues or

1358
01:22:25,120 --> 01:22:29,760
Speaker 2: the population is like they you know, those countries that

1359
01:22:30,240 --> 01:22:36,280
Speaker 2: embrace immigration, they are the most successful countries long run,

1360
01:22:36,520 --> 01:22:39,719
Speaker 2: and especially in a world where the demographics are such

1361
01:22:39,760 --> 01:22:43,240
Speaker 2: that everyone's aging and the population is declining. And that's

1362
01:22:43,240 --> 01:22:46,479
Speaker 2: now China's problem. So they've got that issue that, you know.

1363
01:22:46,520 --> 01:22:49,240
Speaker 2: And I also think they've got an issue with autocratic

1364
01:22:49,280 --> 01:22:52,720
Speaker 2: government and the ability to manage a complex economy with

1365
01:22:52,760 --> 01:22:56,800
Speaker 2: an autocratic leader. I think that's an issue. So, you know,

1366
01:22:57,000 --> 01:22:59,519
Speaker 2: I think China's got its own set of problems and

1367
01:22:59,520 --> 01:23:01,920
Speaker 2: they've been able to take advantage. But it's not like

1368
01:23:01,920 --> 01:23:05,720
Speaker 2: they're standing still, right. They're also now thinking about they're

1369
01:23:05,720 --> 01:23:08,680
Speaker 2: reornering their supply chains and where they're exporting to and

1370
01:23:08,720 --> 01:23:11,200
Speaker 2: who they're relying on. I mean, they're no longer exporting

1371
01:23:11,240 --> 01:23:13,000
Speaker 2: as much to US, but they're exporting a lot more

1372
01:23:13,000 --> 01:23:15,360
Speaker 2: to Europe, so you know, they're figuring it out and

1373
01:23:15,360 --> 01:23:18,040
Speaker 2: they're adjusting like everybody else. But they've got their issues

1374
01:23:18,040 --> 01:23:19,960
Speaker 2: as well, so it's made it more difficult for them

1375
01:23:20,000 --> 01:23:21,960
Speaker 2: to kind of And at the end of the day,

1376
01:23:22,439 --> 01:23:26,200
Speaker 2: no country benefited more from globalization than China, right, So,

1377
01:23:26,520 --> 01:23:29,360
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're going to deglobalize, you would think

1378
01:23:29,360 --> 01:23:31,240
Speaker 2: all else being equal, they'd be you know, one of

1379
01:23:31,280 --> 01:23:33,400
Speaker 2: the casualties of that into signal.

1380
01:23:33,160 --> 01:23:35,080
Speaker 1: Well and theory, that's why we're doing that, right, the

1381
01:23:35,120 --> 01:23:38,639
Speaker 1: whole motivation, that's what historical motivation, frankly left and right

1382
01:23:39,000 --> 01:23:41,519
Speaker 1: has been. Hey, the rise of China has been bad

1383
01:23:41,520 --> 01:23:44,280
Speaker 1: for America. We ought to slow their rise, right, And.

1384
01:23:44,720 --> 01:23:47,479
Speaker 2: I you know, I think there's some validity to that argument,

1385
01:23:47,520 --> 01:23:51,680
Speaker 2: although you know, I go back to Obama in the

1386
01:23:51,680 --> 01:23:54,439
Speaker 2: Transpecific Partnership deal. I mean, we there was a general

1387
01:23:54,520 --> 01:23:57,400
Speaker 2: sense that China was not playing fair, they didn't do

1388
01:23:57,479 --> 01:23:59,439
Speaker 2: what they promised to do if we allowed them to

1389
01:23:59,560 --> 01:24:04,240
Speaker 2: enter into the global economic system. Uh, And the result

1390
01:24:04,280 --> 01:24:06,880
Speaker 2: of the strategy was, Okay, we're gonna have this free

1391
01:24:06,920 --> 01:24:09,160
Speaker 2: trade deal with all the Pacific rim nations, including the

1392
01:24:09,240 --> 01:24:12,400
Speaker 2: US excluding China because they didn't play fair, and the

1393
01:24:12,479 --> 01:24:14,639
Speaker 2: idea was that that would force them to start playing

1394
01:24:14,680 --> 01:24:16,519
Speaker 2: by the rules. Of course, I got blown up right

1395
01:24:16,560 --> 01:24:18,200
Speaker 2: away on the President Trump's first term.

1396
01:24:19,160 --> 01:24:24,120
Speaker 1: What are you one of the potential big moments in

1397
01:24:24,160 --> 01:24:26,600
Speaker 1: the world of trade in the economy is going to

1398
01:24:26,640 --> 01:24:30,160
Speaker 1: be the renewal if there is one of the NAFTA,

1399
01:24:30,600 --> 01:24:32,080
Speaker 1: also known as UNA.

1400
01:24:33,960 --> 01:24:36,599
Speaker 2: By the way, they say Kuzma in Canada, they call

1401
01:24:36,640 --> 01:24:40,280
Speaker 2: it Kuzma USMC Mexico because.

1402
01:24:40,040 --> 01:24:43,680
Speaker 1: It's Canada, US sure, And is it MusmA and is

1403
01:24:43,720 --> 01:24:45,320
Speaker 1: it what MUSCA.

1404
01:24:45,400 --> 01:24:47,559
Speaker 2: That I don't know. I don't know, Yeah, I don't know.

1405
01:24:49,040 --> 01:24:53,080
Speaker 1: Obviously. I feel like both Mexico and Canada have decided

1406
01:24:53,120 --> 01:24:56,519
Speaker 1: Carne and scheinebamb are like, Hey, let's just preserve status

1407
01:24:56,600 --> 01:24:58,680
Speaker 1: quo for as long as we can, so whatever we

1408
01:24:58,680 --> 01:25:01,600
Speaker 1: can do to just know by another year before we

1409
01:25:01,680 --> 01:25:05,519
Speaker 1: negotiate by more time, which which I strategically get. But

1410
01:25:05,600 --> 01:25:08,000
Speaker 1: what are you going to be looking for in the

1411
01:25:08,120 --> 01:25:11,559
Speaker 1: US posture on the USMCA that will tell you a

1412
01:25:11,600 --> 01:25:14,800
Speaker 1: little bit more about what this economy starts to look

1413
01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:16,320
Speaker 1: like in the next couple of years.

1414
01:25:16,680 --> 01:25:18,280
Speaker 2: Well, you know this is going to come to a

1415
01:25:18,320 --> 01:25:21,000
Speaker 2: head here pretty quickly, right, because the USMCA has to

1416
01:25:21,040 --> 01:25:23,880
Speaker 2: be renegotiated in the next few months. So you know,

1417
01:25:25,320 --> 01:25:29,599
Speaker 2: if the if the administration president doesn't focus on Mexico

1418
01:25:29,680 --> 01:25:32,640
Speaker 2: Canada in the next month, two or three, then I

1419
01:25:32,920 --> 01:25:36,719
Speaker 2: would think we're going to sail through pretty quickly here.

1420
01:25:36,760 --> 01:25:38,680
Speaker 2: And you know, I'm increasing on the mind that that's

1421
01:25:38,720 --> 01:25:43,120
Speaker 2: what's going to happen, because this goes to the affordability issue, right.

1422
01:25:43,040 --> 01:25:45,479
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I assume sometimes they're not going to

1423
01:25:45,479 --> 01:25:48,000
Speaker 1: mess with something and then you're like, yeah, all of

1424
01:25:48,040 --> 01:25:49,360
Speaker 1: a sudden, we decide, you know what, I want to

1425
01:25:49,360 --> 01:25:52,280
Speaker 1: go after the Mexican cartels, and it totally blows up

1426
01:25:52,280 --> 01:25:53,120
Speaker 1: the entire trade deal.

1427
01:25:53,240 --> 01:25:55,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's true. But I think he's I think

1428
01:25:55,960 --> 01:25:59,519
Speaker 2: the kind of the the the key here is the election,

1429
01:25:59,680 --> 01:26:02,680
Speaker 2: and every thing is focused on the election, and there

1430
01:26:02,760 --> 01:26:06,960
Speaker 2: is a clear understanding I think politically that affordability is

1431
01:26:07,160 --> 01:26:09,360
Speaker 2: top of mind for the voter. You could see that

1432
01:26:09,600 --> 01:26:13,680
Speaker 2: the last you know, special elections and in the sentiment surveys.

1433
01:26:13,920 --> 01:26:16,880
Speaker 2: So if that's the case, you know, maybe I'm you know,

1434
01:26:17,000 --> 01:26:20,200
Speaker 2: tariffs are pretty obviously not good for affordability. I mean,

1435
01:26:20,240 --> 01:26:23,919
Speaker 2: it's pretty obvious, and everybody knows it, including the American electorate.

1436
01:26:23,960 --> 01:26:26,040
Speaker 2: They know that that's not a good idea. They're paying

1437
01:26:26,080 --> 01:26:29,439
Speaker 2: a lot more for everything that they're importing. Important. We

1438
01:26:29,479 --> 01:26:32,680
Speaker 2: import a lot of stuff. So in that context, you know,

1439
01:26:32,760 --> 01:26:35,000
Speaker 2: it doesn't feel like you'd pick a fight. You know,

1440
01:26:35,000 --> 01:26:39,000
Speaker 2: with China Mexico they're you know, big trading partners, you know,

1441
01:26:39,160 --> 01:26:42,600
Speaker 2: just nail that down. The USMCA, you know, put some

1442
01:26:42,680 --> 01:26:46,200
Speaker 2: pressure to make sure there's more US content in the

1443
01:26:46,400 --> 01:26:50,240
Speaker 2: production that occurs, tweak the rules, but don't, you know,

1444
01:26:50,320 --> 01:26:52,639
Speaker 2: don't pick a fight. That would be my sense of thing.

1445
01:26:52,680 --> 01:26:55,040
Speaker 2: So when you ask what am I looking for? I'm

1446
01:26:55,080 --> 01:26:58,640
Speaker 2: looking for whether that gets on the radar screen on

1447
01:26:58,720 --> 01:27:02,040
Speaker 2: true social anytime next, you know, four to six, eight weeks.

1448
01:27:02,040 --> 01:27:05,640
Speaker 1: Because you're saying you actually hope he's not focused on it.

1449
01:27:05,840 --> 01:27:08,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's focused. There's focused on other stuff when there's

1450
01:27:08,800 --> 01:27:10,200
Speaker 2: plenty of stuff, you know obviously.

1451
01:27:10,240 --> 01:27:12,800
Speaker 1: Right, all right, let me ask a few sort of

1452
01:27:12,800 --> 01:27:18,880
Speaker 1: parochial questions. I have a soon to be college grad.

1453
01:27:19,520 --> 01:27:21,879
Speaker 1: What's the job market look like for new college graduates

1454
01:27:21,920 --> 01:27:23,439
Speaker 1: these days?

1455
01:27:24,200 --> 01:27:26,719
Speaker 2: It's tough, chuck, I mean really tough.

1456
01:27:26,880 --> 01:27:28,920
Speaker 1: I mean, let's just say we're discovering this and we're

1457
01:27:28,960 --> 01:27:32,080
Speaker 1: still five months away. Yeah, it's stuff out there.

1458
01:27:32,240 --> 01:27:35,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, really tough. And he goes back to the hiring freeze, right,

1459
01:27:35,479 --> 01:27:38,519
Speaker 2: I mean, who needs to get hired. It's your your

1460
01:27:38,840 --> 01:27:42,760
Speaker 2: your your kid. You know that's graduating from school. I

1461
01:27:42,760 --> 01:27:47,240
Speaker 2: mean the last graduating class has really struggled. Unemployment is

1462
01:27:47,400 --> 01:27:49,839
Speaker 2: you know, up a lot, you know in that particular

1463
01:27:49,880 --> 01:27:54,080
Speaker 2: group twenty somethings. Oh, here's an interesting stat if you

1464
01:27:54,080 --> 01:27:59,160
Speaker 2: go look at unemployment by educational attainment, the increase in

1465
01:27:59,240 --> 01:28:03,960
Speaker 2: unemployment over the past couple of years has been entirely

1466
01:28:04,000 --> 01:28:06,880
Speaker 2: for college educated. If you look at folks with no

1467
01:28:06,960 --> 01:28:12,240
Speaker 2: high school degree or a high school degree or some college,

1468
01:28:12,360 --> 01:28:14,439
Speaker 2: they're unemployment rate. It hasn't gone down, but it has

1469
01:28:14,479 --> 01:28:16,639
Speaker 2: not really gone up. It's really college educated.

1470
01:28:16,800 --> 01:28:21,880
Speaker 1: There's still an income gap between having and not right, Yeah, okay.

1471
01:28:21,640 --> 01:28:25,439
Speaker 2: But it's just the historically that if you got the

1472
01:28:25,439 --> 01:28:28,080
Speaker 2: college degree, you're golden, right, your unemployment rate was going

1473
01:28:28,160 --> 01:28:29,599
Speaker 2: to be low, and it's going to be much lower

1474
01:28:29,640 --> 01:28:31,400
Speaker 2: than it and it's not going to rise more quickly

1475
01:28:31,840 --> 01:28:34,639
Speaker 2: in an environment like the current one. But that goes

1476
01:28:34,680 --> 01:28:37,040
Speaker 2: back I think to AI it's starting to have an

1477
01:28:37,040 --> 01:28:38,880
Speaker 2: impact that goes back to the hiring rates, and the

1478
01:28:38,880 --> 01:28:40,840
Speaker 2: college educated would be the folks that we could get

1479
01:28:40,840 --> 01:28:43,519
Speaker 2: substituted out by AI, and that's where the issues are.

1480
01:28:43,600 --> 01:28:46,479
Speaker 1: So you got all the parents and said, hey, we

1481
01:28:46,560 --> 01:28:48,439
Speaker 1: got to we got to make sure our kids know

1482
01:28:48,479 --> 01:28:50,040
Speaker 1: how to code.

1483
01:28:50,400 --> 01:28:53,880
Speaker 2: I know, I know. And now it's it's all about

1484
01:28:53,960 --> 01:28:57,040
Speaker 2: embracing artificial intelligence. It really is. You've just got to

1485
01:28:57,120 --> 01:28:59,479
Speaker 2: embrace it, and you know it's got to be yours.

1486
01:29:00,120 --> 01:29:02,519
Speaker 2: So yeah, and I'm not sure you know, kids are

1487
01:29:02,520 --> 01:29:04,760
Speaker 2: getting the right kind of education in school. I mean,

1488
01:29:04,800 --> 01:29:07,639
Speaker 2: the faculty just aren't there yet. And that's a problem.

1489
01:29:07,680 --> 01:29:09,160
Speaker 2: So you got to do it almost on your own.

1490
01:29:09,439 --> 01:29:10,720
Speaker 2: You got to go out and do it. But you

1491
01:29:10,800 --> 01:29:12,519
Speaker 2: got you got to embrace it. You got to. You

1492
01:29:12,640 --> 01:29:16,360
Speaker 2: gotta be able to use it effectively because that's that's

1493
01:29:16,360 --> 01:29:17,320
Speaker 2: definitely where the jobs are.

1494
01:29:17,960 --> 01:29:21,280
Speaker 1: You know. It's interesting and I again I'm projecting on

1495
01:29:21,360 --> 01:29:25,200
Speaker 1: my own personal experiences, but they the new college president

1496
01:29:25,360 --> 01:29:29,800
Speaker 1: of my younger, my youngest UH is at SMU and

1497
01:29:30,520 --> 01:29:32,320
Speaker 1: the new president there I heard him and it used

1498
01:29:32,360 --> 01:29:35,679
Speaker 1: to be at UT Jay he has j Hertzel, Jay Hartzell.

1499
01:29:35,800 --> 01:29:39,040
Speaker 1: He just got terrific he's a good guy. He's got

1500
01:29:39,040 --> 01:29:43,000
Speaker 1: a theory that classical education is actually going to make

1501
01:29:43,040 --> 01:29:47,040
Speaker 1: a comeback. That that with. You know, we went basically

1502
01:29:47,040 --> 01:29:50,080
Speaker 1: a generation of specialization, right You and I went to

1503
01:29:50,120 --> 01:29:52,519
Speaker 1: college and there were still English majors. Then all of

1504
01:29:52,560 --> 01:29:53,760
Speaker 1: a sudden we said, we're not going to have any

1505
01:29:53,800 --> 01:29:55,720
Speaker 1: more English majors. I mean, there's a university right down

1506
01:29:55,720 --> 01:29:58,000
Speaker 1: the street where I live. They you know, it was

1507
01:29:58,040 --> 01:30:00,479
Speaker 1: a headline when they just decided, hey, you can major

1508
01:30:00,479 --> 01:30:03,879
Speaker 1: in English anymore at Marymount here in Arlington. And suddenly,

1509
01:30:03,920 --> 01:30:07,519
Speaker 1: you know, that became an contagious thing. And his theory

1510
01:30:07,560 --> 01:30:10,840
Speaker 1: is that actually that's going to come back, and maybe

1511
01:30:10,840 --> 01:30:13,320
Speaker 1: that'll be it, that'll be a good outcome. But we're

1512
01:30:14,040 --> 01:30:16,800
Speaker 1: but essentially you've got to rewire universities to be able

1513
01:30:16,840 --> 01:30:17,799
Speaker 1: to do that, right.

1514
01:30:17,720 --> 01:30:20,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that there's a lot of validity to that.

1515
01:30:21,680 --> 01:30:26,160
Speaker 2: You know, getting that degree in philosophy might not be

1516
01:30:26,240 --> 01:30:30,280
Speaker 2: a bad idea. It's really about learning a framework for

1517
01:30:30,479 --> 01:30:34,880
Speaker 2: thinking and being creative. And I don't know you get

1518
01:30:34,880 --> 01:30:37,599
Speaker 2: that if you go to you know, undergrad business school,

1519
01:30:37,840 --> 01:30:40,280
Speaker 2: you know, or you're you know, it's just I don't

1520
01:30:40,320 --> 01:30:43,040
Speaker 2: think you get that or you trained for pre law,

1521
01:30:43,160 --> 01:30:45,120
Speaker 2: you know, that kind of thing. So I think the

1522
01:30:45,160 --> 01:30:49,040
Speaker 2: way we think about education is changing very rapidly, and

1523
01:30:49,080 --> 01:30:51,519
Speaker 2: I think there's some some real validity to that. But

1524
01:30:51,600 --> 01:30:54,479
Speaker 2: I think to answer your question, what should your kid do,

1525
01:30:55,320 --> 01:30:59,520
Speaker 2: it's really about, you know, go find something some project

1526
01:31:00,800 --> 01:31:06,160
Speaker 2: embodies AI, embrace it, and they show that, you know,

1527
01:31:06,200 --> 01:31:09,840
Speaker 2: you've mastered the ability to harness the power of AI.

1528
01:31:09,960 --> 01:31:11,840
Speaker 2: Because that's what I'm looking I'll tell you that's what

1529
01:31:11,880 --> 01:31:15,040
Speaker 2: I'm looking for when I interview potential can and we're

1530
01:31:15,080 --> 01:31:17,240
Speaker 2: not hiring a whole lot, but when we hire, that's

1531
01:31:17,280 --> 01:31:19,320
Speaker 2: the kind of person I want, you know, someone who's

1532
01:31:19,600 --> 01:31:22,000
Speaker 2: shown not so much that they got a degree from

1533
01:31:22,200 --> 01:31:24,320
Speaker 2: you know, X y Z university. That's not what I

1534
01:31:24,320 --> 01:31:27,560
Speaker 2: care about anymore. It's really do they show that initiative,

1535
01:31:27,600 --> 01:31:29,599
Speaker 2: that they've gone out and done something and proven that

1536
01:31:29,600 --> 01:31:30,840
Speaker 2: they have that skill.

1537
01:31:38,680 --> 01:31:42,679
Speaker 1: Let me shift the housing. I thought it was interesting

1538
01:31:42,680 --> 01:31:45,680
Speaker 1: to hear Donald Trump used language that I might have

1539
01:31:46,640 --> 01:31:49,839
Speaker 1: heard Bernie Sanders use, which is, corporations don't live in homes.

1540
01:31:49,880 --> 01:31:54,720
Speaker 1: People do when he wanted to talk about banning sort

1541
01:31:54,760 --> 01:31:58,599
Speaker 1: of corporate private equity from buying up single family homes. Right,

1542
01:31:59,680 --> 01:32:02,400
Speaker 1: I think, you know, that's the populace in him, right,

1543
01:32:02,439 --> 01:32:05,600
Speaker 1: he knows like be careful where you walk that I

1544
01:32:05,640 --> 01:32:10,000
Speaker 1: think he frankly politically, that's he's certainly articulating it, I

1545
01:32:10,000 --> 01:32:13,679
Speaker 1: think in the right way. Is this a good time

1546
01:32:13,680 --> 01:32:14,280
Speaker 1: to buy a home?

1547
01:32:16,400 --> 01:32:21,760
Speaker 2: It's still very unaffordable, right for most Americans. You know,

1548
01:32:22,120 --> 01:32:26,280
Speaker 2: even with the recent decline in mortgage rates. One of

1549
01:32:26,320 --> 01:32:30,479
Speaker 2: the proposals he made yesterday was for Fannie May and Fredimac,

1550
01:32:30,520 --> 01:32:32,919
Speaker 2: the big mortgage companies, to go out and buy mortgage

1551
01:32:32,920 --> 01:32:35,439
Speaker 2: bonds in an effort to bring down mortgage rates. And

1552
01:32:35,479 --> 01:32:38,280
Speaker 2: mortgage rates actually have fallen today and we're now closer

1553
01:32:38,320 --> 01:32:40,400
Speaker 2: to six percent on a three year fix. But even

1554
01:32:40,439 --> 01:32:43,320
Speaker 2: if that's where they settle six percent, you know, the

1555
01:32:43,640 --> 01:32:46,759
Speaker 2: monthly mortgage payment on a typical home, a median priced

1556
01:32:46,760 --> 01:32:50,759
Speaker 2: home is probably going to be two thousand, two thousand,

1557
01:32:51,120 --> 01:32:53,800
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty in that ballpark. That's double what

1558
01:32:53,840 --> 01:32:57,480
Speaker 2: it was before the pandemic, and so for most Americans,

1559
01:32:57,520 --> 01:33:00,120
Speaker 2: that's still very unaffordable. So the answer your question, is

1560
01:33:00,160 --> 01:33:03,240
Speaker 2: it a good time to buy? You know not? You know,

1561
01:33:04,000 --> 01:33:05,720
Speaker 2: I don't want I'm gonna pain with a broad I'm

1562
01:33:05,720 --> 01:33:07,960
Speaker 2: painting with a broad brush. It really depends on where

1563
01:33:08,000 --> 01:33:10,479
Speaker 2: you are and what kind of helm you're looking for,

1564
01:33:10,560 --> 01:33:13,040
Speaker 2: But generally speaking, it's still better to probably to rent

1565
01:33:13,120 --> 01:33:14,040
Speaker 2: than to buy.

1566
01:33:14,640 --> 01:33:17,040
Speaker 1: Uh. Well, let's look at it from the other perspective,

1567
01:33:17,320 --> 01:33:19,519
Speaker 1: because you hear that this is actually kind of a problem.

1568
01:33:19,560 --> 01:33:25,559
Speaker 1: You have a lot of older folks who are not selling. Yeah, right,

1569
01:33:25,960 --> 01:33:30,639
Speaker 1: because it's not that they don't want to profit from

1570
01:33:30,680 --> 01:33:33,720
Speaker 1: their house. They can't. You might sell something, but you

1571
01:33:33,760 --> 01:33:37,000
Speaker 1: can't afford to go replace right where you live. Is

1572
01:33:37,000 --> 01:33:38,840
Speaker 1: this a good time to sell a house?

1573
01:33:40,600 --> 01:33:46,639
Speaker 2: Uh? Probably, Probably, it's a difficult time to sell because

1574
01:33:46,640 --> 01:33:49,640
Speaker 2: there aren't a lot of buyers. It's a pretty.

1575
01:33:49,360 --> 01:33:52,400
Speaker 1: Start, even though inventory is narrow and small, because in theory,

1576
01:33:52,439 --> 01:33:54,759
Speaker 1: you would think with a with you know, we still

1577
01:33:54,960 --> 01:33:58,000
Speaker 1: we still have a housing shortage in this country. Correct. Yeah, yeah,

1578
01:33:58,040 --> 01:34:01,519
Speaker 1: when theory right, by the law of supplying demand, should

1579
01:34:01,520 --> 01:34:02,360
Speaker 1: be a good time to sell.

1580
01:34:02,880 --> 01:34:05,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just that they're not a lot of you know,

1581
01:34:05,800 --> 01:34:07,800
Speaker 2: at the price points that you want to sell at,

1582
01:34:07,880 --> 01:34:09,400
Speaker 2: you're not going to find a lot of buyers that

1583
01:34:09,439 --> 01:34:11,920
Speaker 2: can afford it, at least not yet. I mean, there

1584
01:34:11,960 --> 01:34:14,280
Speaker 2: is a proposal, and I think it's a good one

1585
01:34:14,280 --> 01:34:19,679
Speaker 2: because I made it with a few other colleagues where

1586
01:34:19,760 --> 01:34:25,120
Speaker 2: you would raise the capital gains exclusion on homes, and

1587
01:34:25,479 --> 01:34:28,320
Speaker 2: I probably limited to seniors people over the age of

1588
01:34:28,360 --> 01:34:31,240
Speaker 2: sixty five, because one of the problems is you've got

1589
01:34:31,720 --> 01:34:34,799
Speaker 2: these older homeowners that are living in these big homes

1590
01:34:34,800 --> 01:34:36,680
Speaker 2: that they made sense when they had kids, but they're

1591
01:34:36,680 --> 01:34:39,519
Speaker 2: empty nesters. They don't want to sell. They're sitting in

1592
01:34:39,560 --> 01:34:42,160
Speaker 2: New York, they're sitting in California, they're sitting in Miami,

1593
01:34:43,040 --> 01:34:47,960
Speaker 2: and the capital gains just doesn't make sense. You know,

1594
01:34:48,000 --> 01:34:50,880
Speaker 2: if you wait and you die and you bequeath, you

1595
01:34:50,920 --> 01:34:53,280
Speaker 2: get stepped up basis, so you don't play that capital

1596
01:34:53,280 --> 01:34:55,640
Speaker 2: gains tax. So people are doing that, and so you

1597
01:34:55,720 --> 01:34:58,600
Speaker 2: got a lot of it's a lot more than I

1598
01:34:58,600 --> 01:35:02,040
Speaker 2: think as well. Well understood that a lot of those

1599
01:35:02,040 --> 01:35:04,479
Speaker 2: folks that are sitting in homes that they really would

1600
01:35:04,560 --> 01:35:07,479
Speaker 2: sell if they could reduce that capital gains exclusion. So

1601
01:35:07,520 --> 01:35:09,519
Speaker 2: I in that exclusion that.

1602
01:35:09,760 --> 01:35:13,200
Speaker 1: Is two fifty used to be two fifty per person, right.

1603
01:35:13,560 --> 01:35:16,519
Speaker 2: For an individual, five hundred k for a couple couple. Right,

1604
01:35:16,600 --> 01:35:18,760
Speaker 2: So that was said in nineteen ninety seven. So if

1605
01:35:18,800 --> 01:35:24,400
Speaker 2: you just index that to say inflation double to five

1606
01:35:24,479 --> 01:35:26,600
Speaker 2: hundred k and a million, and you would get a

1607
01:35:26,640 --> 01:35:30,000
Speaker 2: lot more of those homes being sold, and you get

1608
01:35:30,000 --> 01:35:31,960
Speaker 2: to start of the market movement. That's what I.

1609
01:35:31,880 --> 01:35:34,519
Speaker 1: Would seems like. I mean, given this, I mean that

1610
01:35:34,560 --> 01:35:36,680
Speaker 1: seems like a no brainer. Why is that a difficult

1611
01:35:37,200 --> 01:35:39,200
Speaker 1: policy to get proposed to?

1612
01:35:39,280 --> 01:35:42,320
Speaker 2: Chuck? I mean, you know everything well on this one,

1613
01:35:42,360 --> 01:35:44,439
Speaker 2: I don't. I mean, because this is one Now there's

1614
01:35:44,479 --> 01:35:46,479
Speaker 2: a lot of support, right who.

1615
01:35:46,280 --> 01:35:48,920
Speaker 1: I think this is a left right easy layout.

1616
01:35:49,000 --> 01:35:51,759
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I think there is a lot of support

1617
01:35:51,920 --> 01:35:53,680
Speaker 2: on both the Republican and Democrats. And in fact that

1618
01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:55,919
Speaker 2: there's a reconciliation bill. If we get another.

1619
01:35:55,880 --> 01:35:58,160
Speaker 1: Piece of and you would expect that in there, I

1620
01:35:58,160 --> 01:36:03,400
Speaker 1: think that might make it through. I think even yeah, Well,

1621
01:36:04,000 --> 01:36:08,800
Speaker 1: I'm torn on reconciliation, meaning I think Trump, it's my

1622
01:36:08,880 --> 01:36:12,840
Speaker 1: understanding Trump is just lost interest in Congress and that

1623
01:36:12,880 --> 01:36:15,439
Speaker 1: there's a lot of Republicans nervous that even though they

1624
01:36:15,479 --> 01:36:17,800
Speaker 1: want to do a reconciliation, he doesn't want to do

1625
01:36:17,840 --> 01:36:19,679
Speaker 1: the heavy lift this time. He already did it once.

1626
01:36:20,400 --> 01:36:22,360
Speaker 1: I don't need to. I don't want to have to

1627
01:36:22,400 --> 01:36:25,000
Speaker 1: do it. Let me just go around Congress. So I

1628
01:36:25,040 --> 01:36:28,360
Speaker 1: don't know if we're gonna like I assumed reconciliation was

1629
01:36:28,400 --> 01:36:31,880
Speaker 1: going to happen, right, Why wouldn't you? And I've been

1630
01:36:32,160 --> 01:36:34,280
Speaker 1: not i want to say, waved off, but like, don't

1631
01:36:34,320 --> 01:36:37,479
Speaker 1: be shocked. He isn't interested in the moment.

1632
01:36:37,560 --> 01:36:40,519
Speaker 2: Oh interesting. Interesting, that may change pretty quickly if the

1633
01:36:40,520 --> 01:36:42,880
Speaker 2: economy doesn't cooperate, if we start losing jobs as a

1634
01:36:43,840 --> 01:36:46,000
Speaker 2: the you know, holding you know where we are, and

1635
01:36:46,040 --> 01:36:48,120
Speaker 2: he started, and there's some worry about how the election

1636
01:36:48,200 --> 01:36:51,160
Speaker 2: plays out as a result. Maybe get a quick change here,

1637
01:36:51,240 --> 01:36:54,479
Speaker 2: But reconciliation might not be that easy either, right, Chuck,

1638
01:36:54,520 --> 01:36:57,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean not that all feels like it's

1639
01:36:57,720 --> 01:37:00,679
Speaker 2: getting more and more independent from you know, the executive

1640
01:37:00,720 --> 01:37:03,320
Speaker 2: branch now, and it's not clear that you can marshal

1641
01:37:03,360 --> 01:37:05,680
Speaker 2: the votes, you know, even to get a majority in

1642
01:37:05,680 --> 01:37:08,120
Speaker 2: the House. So it's not clear that that would happen

1643
01:37:08,120 --> 01:37:08,920
Speaker 2: even if they wanted to.

1644
01:37:09,360 --> 01:37:13,519
Speaker 1: I'm actually entertaining the idea that the current majority party

1645
01:37:13,520 --> 01:37:17,479
Speaker 1: could lose its status before November looking at all of

1646
01:37:17,520 --> 01:37:21,160
Speaker 1: the you know, just you know, you had a lawmaker

1647
01:37:21,200 --> 01:37:24,479
Speaker 1: and a car accident, you had somebody dropped dead. Surprise,

1648
01:37:24,560 --> 01:37:28,000
Speaker 1: you know, this is it. You know, it's called actuary tables.

1649
01:37:28,040 --> 01:37:29,080
Speaker 1: Stuff happens, you.

1650
01:37:29,080 --> 01:37:31,400
Speaker 2: Know, stuff happens interesting, right.

1651
01:37:31,439 --> 01:37:34,680
Speaker 1: And our margins are so close, so so who knows there? Well,

1652
01:37:34,720 --> 01:37:36,160
Speaker 1: let me get you out of here on this, which

1653
01:37:36,200 --> 01:37:39,360
Speaker 1: is you? You, I assume live in a world of

1654
01:37:39,360 --> 01:37:42,639
Speaker 1: always trying to understand there's always risk. There's always risk

1655
01:37:42,920 --> 01:37:46,800
Speaker 1: that can impact the economy. If you were to prioritize

1656
01:37:46,840 --> 01:37:49,120
Speaker 1: the levels of risk, that could just sort of up

1657
01:37:49,120 --> 01:37:56,200
Speaker 1: into our economy. You know what's concerning you the most

1658
01:37:56,280 --> 01:37:56,960
Speaker 1: at the moment.

1659
01:37:57,880 --> 01:37:59,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I have this what I call

1660
01:37:59,800 --> 01:38:01,720
Speaker 2: risk matrix. I have to show it to you one

1661
01:38:01,760 --> 01:38:06,519
Speaker 2: of these days. The horizontal axis is the loss economic

1662
01:38:06,560 --> 01:38:08,519
Speaker 2: loss if the risk were to occur. The y axis

1663
01:38:08,600 --> 01:38:11,479
Speaker 2: the probability of risk. Because there's so many it's hard

1664
01:38:11,479 --> 01:38:15,160
Speaker 2: to keep my mind around them, right, But I would say,

1665
01:38:15,240 --> 01:38:20,479
Speaker 2: you know, the thing that, aside from when I ask

1666
01:38:20,520 --> 01:38:23,880
Speaker 2: people that question, you know, what's bothering you? What's worrying you?

1667
01:38:24,240 --> 01:38:29,120
Speaker 2: When I hear the word geopolitical risk, I think, okay, sure,

1668
01:38:29,560 --> 01:38:32,599
Speaker 2: but that's a pretty amorphous kind of you know, risk,

1669
01:38:32,720 --> 01:38:35,200
Speaker 2: and that's always there, and I think that, but I

1670
01:38:35,200 --> 01:38:36,880
Speaker 2: think it's fair to say, at this point in time

1671
01:38:36,960 --> 01:38:40,880
Speaker 2: that feels elevated you know, given what's going on, what's

1672
01:38:40,920 --> 01:38:43,599
Speaker 2: going on in Venezuela, which you can see what's going

1673
01:38:43,600 --> 01:38:47,679
Speaker 2: on in Iran, you know, China and Taiwan, Russia and Ukraine.

1674
01:38:48,080 --> 01:38:51,280
Speaker 2: Feels like that that's pretty elevated risk. But I think

1675
01:38:51,960 --> 01:38:56,080
Speaker 2: more concretely, I worry about going back to the stock market, right,

1676
01:38:56,160 --> 01:39:01,040
Speaker 2: I mean, it is being driven by euphoria over this

1677
01:39:01,160 --> 01:39:08,639
Speaker 2: technology AI, and it's very unproven that this is actually

1678
01:39:08,680 --> 01:39:11,720
Speaker 2: going to cut these expectations are going to be fulfilled.

1679
01:39:12,000 --> 01:39:14,719
Speaker 2: I mean, investors expect a lot from AI. They expect

1680
01:39:14,720 --> 01:39:19,240
Speaker 2: big adoption and implementation by business, big productivity gains, and

1681
01:39:19,320 --> 01:39:23,439
Speaker 2: big profit gains and profitability. And I'm not so sure

1682
01:39:23,600 --> 01:39:26,240
Speaker 2: if the stock market were to correct, and I think

1683
01:39:26,360 --> 01:39:29,760
Speaker 2: that's a real significant possibility that knocks a big leg

1684
01:39:29,800 --> 01:39:33,479
Speaker 2: out of growth and potential for much weaker economy or research.

1685
01:39:33,680 --> 01:39:37,720
Speaker 1: I was reading it somebody's sort of right up of

1686
01:39:37,760 --> 01:39:42,320
Speaker 1: the history of the railroads and comparing the first run

1687
01:39:42,439 --> 01:39:45,400
Speaker 1: up of a railroad investment that actually all went belly up.

1688
01:39:46,320 --> 01:39:50,479
Speaker 1: Yeah and yeah, so yes, everybody was right the railroads

1689
01:39:50,479 --> 01:39:53,439
Speaker 1: were going to transform the economy, right, And they did

1690
01:39:53,479 --> 01:39:56,960
Speaker 1: transform the economy about ten years after a bunch of

1691
01:39:57,000 --> 01:39:59,440
Speaker 1: people lost early bets on that transformation.

1692
01:39:59,600 --> 01:40:02,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, that's the that's the I think that's the

1693
01:40:02,760 --> 01:40:07,439
Speaker 2: typical history of big technological changes, and so that you know,

1694
01:40:07,479 --> 01:40:09,559
Speaker 2: that may not happen to the same degree this go around,

1695
01:40:09,560 --> 01:40:11,760
Speaker 2: but you know, investors are expecting a lot, I mean

1696
01:40:11,800 --> 01:40:13,880
Speaker 2: an awful lot, and they may not get it.

1697
01:40:13,920 --> 01:40:16,360
Speaker 1: Is there anything out there that's like the housing crisis

1698
01:40:16,400 --> 01:40:21,000
Speaker 1: of nine that would create contasion? Right? Is crypto that

1699
01:40:21,080 --> 01:40:23,680
Speaker 1: way or is AI that way? Or are both of

1700
01:40:23,720 --> 01:40:26,879
Speaker 1: them small enough that it would be more like frankly,

1701
01:40:26,920 --> 01:40:29,920
Speaker 1: the Internet receptor, the Internet bubble recession of two thousand.

1702
01:40:30,240 --> 01:40:33,679
Speaker 2: No, you know what, Chuck. You know, if there's a problem,

1703
01:40:34,040 --> 01:40:36,799
Speaker 2: it probably will be in the plumbting of the financial system,

1704
01:40:36,880 --> 01:40:39,559
Speaker 2: the funding markets. I mean, if you look at how

1705
01:40:40,280 --> 01:40:43,479
Speaker 2: the government and businesses are funding themselves, you know, they

1706
01:40:43,560 --> 01:40:46,400
Speaker 2: borrow lots of money, and you look at that system,

1707
01:40:46,560 --> 01:40:50,160
Speaker 2: there's it just feels very fragile to me. And there's

1708
01:40:50,160 --> 01:40:52,320
Speaker 2: a lot of volatility in that market.

1709
01:40:52,880 --> 01:40:54,800
Speaker 1: What would be the call that's a that's sort of

1710
01:40:54,840 --> 01:40:57,400
Speaker 1: like who's who's making the margin call that all of

1711
01:40:57,439 --> 01:40:59,120
Speaker 1: a sudden crumbles.

1712
01:40:58,640 --> 01:41:02,600
Speaker 2: That well, I mean, it could It could simply be

1713
01:41:03,360 --> 01:41:08,400
Speaker 2: one of these AI companies do does default on some uh,

1714
01:41:08,439 --> 01:41:11,760
Speaker 2: some obligation, some debt, and that just changes the kind

1715
01:41:11,800 --> 01:41:15,080
Speaker 2: of psychology that you know that we're often running here

1716
01:41:15,280 --> 01:41:17,240
Speaker 2: that you know, there's more risk here than we think,

1717
01:41:17,800 --> 01:41:20,840
Speaker 2: and that's that's that's that kind of contagion that could

1718
01:41:21,120 --> 01:41:25,960
Speaker 2: cause creditors to stop lending and the markets to start freezing.

1719
01:41:26,400 --> 01:41:32,240
Speaker 2: Or it could be you know, uh, the Treasury decides

1720
01:41:32,320 --> 01:41:35,280
Speaker 2: to because the deficit is now very large and it's

1721
01:41:35,320 --> 01:41:37,680
Speaker 2: going to balloon here, you know, pretty significantly, they got

1722
01:41:37,680 --> 01:41:40,240
Speaker 2: to issue a lot of debt. Maybe they move from

1723
01:41:40,280 --> 01:41:42,240
Speaker 2: issuing a lot of longer term debt to shorter term

1724
01:41:42,320 --> 01:41:44,599
Speaker 2: debt because they want to keep long term rates down

1725
01:41:45,439 --> 01:41:47,960
Speaker 2: and there's so much debt that you know, people say,

1726
01:41:48,120 --> 01:41:52,160
Speaker 2: oh my gosh, we can't digest this. Uh and uh

1727
01:41:52,240 --> 01:41:55,439
Speaker 2: the hedge fund community, which is a big player in

1728
01:41:55,479 --> 01:41:58,320
Speaker 2: these markets, to side this isn't the an investment we

1729
01:41:58,360 --> 01:42:00,160
Speaker 2: want to make. They all run for the door the

1730
01:42:00,160 --> 01:42:03,600
Speaker 2: same time, and we got a funding crisis. So I

1731
01:42:03,920 --> 01:42:06,840
Speaker 2: think it's hard to answer that question because these things

1732
01:42:06,880 --> 01:42:10,000
Speaker 2: are off the radar screen, right. But the thing that

1733
01:42:10,040 --> 01:42:12,679
Speaker 2: makes me nervous is that part of the financial system.

1734
01:42:12,840 --> 01:42:18,439
Speaker 2: It's the literal plumbing where businesses and government get their

1735
01:42:18,479 --> 01:42:20,760
Speaker 2: short term cash, get their funding to you know, keep

1736
01:42:21,200 --> 01:42:23,880
Speaker 2: keep the doors open and keep things moving forward. It

1737
01:42:23,960 --> 01:42:26,840
Speaker 2: just feels tenuous to me, you know at this point.

1738
01:42:27,479 --> 01:42:30,080
Speaker 1: Well it's my understanding. Hemingway is the one who wrote

1739
01:42:30,080 --> 01:42:33,400
Speaker 1: the line that with bankruptcy first it happened slowly, then quickly,

1740
01:42:33,760 --> 01:42:36,439
Speaker 1: and like it feels like everything in the financial sector

1741
01:42:36,479 --> 01:42:39,840
Speaker 1: is that way. You're like, something's happening slowly and then

1742
01:42:39,880 --> 01:42:44,120
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the hockey stick moment comes. Katy

1743
01:42:44,200 --> 01:42:44,959
Speaker 1: bar the door.

1744
01:42:44,840 --> 01:42:48,679
Speaker 2: Right exactly, exactly, Yeah, very much. So that's a great remark.

1745
01:42:50,240 --> 01:42:53,880
Speaker 1: Great to get an update. I don't feel as pessimistic

1746
01:42:53,920 --> 01:42:55,720
Speaker 1: as I did after the last time we talked, but

1747
01:42:55,800 --> 01:42:59,160
Speaker 1: I I definitely feel fairly uneasy.

1748
01:42:59,640 --> 01:43:03,719
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well that's an impresement. I wanted you, Todd, go.

1749
01:43:03,640 --> 01:43:07,400
Speaker 1: From being from being totally pessimistic to just fairly uneasy. Yeah.

1750
01:43:07,439 --> 01:43:10,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's what that's what I was going for. Yeah, exactly,

1751
01:43:10,840 --> 01:43:12,800
Speaker 2: I got you where I want you. Yeah, all right,

1752
01:43:13,040 --> 01:43:14,400
Speaker 2: did you see I have a glass of wine, so

1753
01:43:14,439 --> 01:43:15,960
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit more mellow than you are.

1754
01:43:16,080 --> 01:43:20,080
Speaker 1: So well, there you go, Uh, GDP growth over under

1755
01:43:20,360 --> 01:43:23,320
Speaker 1: three percent for calendar year twenty twenty six.

1756
01:43:23,680 --> 01:43:26,719
Speaker 2: Oh, definitely under two and a half percent. Yeah, definitely

1757
01:43:26,800 --> 01:43:29,520
Speaker 2: under I think that'd be my guess.

1758
01:43:29,880 --> 01:43:33,000
Speaker 1: Why pick three just because that's a Donald Trump I

1759
01:43:33,000 --> 01:43:36,720
Speaker 1: feel like three percent is the road, anything below is

1760
01:43:36,760 --> 01:43:38,320
Speaker 1: sort of static. No, got it?

1761
01:43:38,439 --> 01:43:40,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, that's fair. Two and a half percent would

1762
01:43:40,120 --> 01:43:42,560
Speaker 2: be consistent with the economy's potential stable unemployment.

1763
01:43:42,640 --> 01:43:46,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, there's sort of It's sort of like, right,

1764
01:43:46,120 --> 01:43:50,439
Speaker 1: the uh A cost of living adjustment versus a race. Yeah,

1765
01:43:50,560 --> 01:43:52,080
Speaker 1: but right, I feel like two and a half percent

1766
01:43:52,160 --> 01:43:54,880
Speaker 1: is cola. Three percent is growth as a race.

1767
01:43:55,280 --> 01:43:59,439
Speaker 2: That's good, But I caution using GDP, I'm not sure. Yeah,

1768
01:43:59,520 --> 01:44:02,360
Speaker 2: I mean gbgp's this weird thing we talked a little

1769
01:44:02,360 --> 01:44:04,840
Speaker 2: bit about that. I'd focus on those jobs, I mean

1770
01:44:05,320 --> 01:44:08,679
Speaker 2: in unemployment. So the question is hired a five percent

1771
01:44:08,760 --> 01:44:11,200
Speaker 2: or closer to four percent? You know my baseline.

1772
01:44:11,280 --> 01:44:13,360
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this raw jobs. Are we going

1773
01:44:13,400 --> 01:44:14,960
Speaker 1: to be net positive or net negative?

1774
01:44:15,960 --> 01:44:19,320
Speaker 2: You know, I want to say it's we're going to

1775
01:44:19,360 --> 01:44:21,760
Speaker 2: be tough to be in the positive. After all the

1776
01:44:21,800 --> 01:44:24,040
Speaker 2: revisions are in, It's going to be tough to be

1777
01:44:24,200 --> 01:44:25,519
Speaker 2: you know, in positive territory.

1778
01:44:25,800 --> 01:44:28,200
Speaker 1: Hey, very before I let you go, do you care

1779
01:44:28,200 --> 01:44:30,639
Speaker 1: about the prediction markets? Do you monitor them?

1780
01:44:31,160 --> 01:44:33,719
Speaker 2: I watched them, Yeah, I do. I mean for things

1781
01:44:33,760 --> 01:44:37,600
Speaker 2: like who they think the next bet chair is going

1782
01:44:37,680 --> 01:44:39,960
Speaker 2: to be. I think there's some value there, you know,

1783
01:44:40,040 --> 01:44:40,759
Speaker 2: some Yeah.

1784
01:44:40,600 --> 01:44:43,559
Speaker 1: It's interesting that Warsh's numbers get stronger, doesn't it.

1785
01:44:43,800 --> 01:44:46,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is right. I think he's I think last

1786
01:44:46,520 --> 01:44:48,719
Speaker 2: I looked, Tasset was forty four and he was forty percent.

1787
01:44:49,240 --> 01:44:51,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean all of the if you were just

1788
01:44:51,120 --> 01:44:55,040
Speaker 1: to judge by Washington commentary, it's hass it, it's acid. Yeah,

1789
01:44:55,040 --> 01:44:57,200
Speaker 1: I know. But I noticed that this is one of

1790
01:44:57,200 --> 01:45:00,479
Speaker 1: the few places where there's been a counter And you're right,

1791
01:45:00,560 --> 01:45:02,479
Speaker 1: that's I'm curious to see if that's said.

1792
01:45:02,680 --> 01:45:06,920
Speaker 2: Someone made a fortune betting on Venezuela getting in you know, yeah,

1793
01:45:07,000 --> 01:45:07,400
Speaker 2: I'd like to.

1794
01:45:07,479 --> 01:45:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is why I'm I find them interesting. Based

1795
01:45:11,000 --> 01:45:14,760
Speaker 1: on who's leaking information, I'm not sure whether they're trustworthy.

1796
01:45:15,040 --> 01:45:17,280
Speaker 2: Good point. That's good point. Good point.

1797
01:45:17,280 --> 01:45:28,000
Speaker 1: Anyway. Hey, well, thank you, I'll see you so well.

1798
01:45:28,280 --> 01:45:31,000
Speaker 1: Remember I am not here to give you investment advice.

1799
01:45:31,120 --> 01:45:33,400
Speaker 1: Mark Zandy is not here to give you investment advice.

1800
01:45:33,439 --> 01:45:37,360
Speaker 1: We are here to give you the factual look at

1801
01:45:37,439 --> 01:45:40,439
Speaker 1: what to think about as the year goes on, as

1802
01:45:40,479 --> 01:45:43,400
Speaker 1: you prepare. That's why I liked asking him certain questions.

1803
01:45:43,439 --> 01:45:44,840
Speaker 1: This is a good time to find a job or

1804
01:45:44,840 --> 01:45:46,720
Speaker 1: a hard time to find a job? Right, good time

1805
01:45:46,720 --> 01:45:48,840
Speaker 1: to buy a house, hard time. The fact that he

1806
01:45:48,880 --> 01:45:50,560
Speaker 1: said bad time to buy a house, bad time to

1807
01:45:50,560 --> 01:45:54,920
Speaker 1: find a job. That is the definition of a bad economy,

1808
01:45:55,240 --> 01:45:58,479
Speaker 1: just because it isn't technically a recession. To me, if

1809
01:45:58,479 --> 01:46:04,160
Speaker 1: those two things are difficult, you might as well. This

1810
01:46:04,240 --> 01:46:07,719
Speaker 1: is why Americans feel as if this economy is either

1811
01:46:07,800 --> 01:46:11,160
Speaker 1: going into recession or might already be in one. All right,

1812
01:46:11,240 --> 01:46:19,719
Speaker 1: let me go into the time machine, the podcast time machine.

1813
01:46:19,720 --> 01:46:21,639
Speaker 1: We're going to go back, as I said, little more

1814
01:46:21,680 --> 01:46:24,280
Speaker 1: than one hundred years ago, and as you know, I

1815
01:46:24,360 --> 01:46:26,759
Speaker 1: like to use the week that is, so it's January

1816
01:46:26,800 --> 01:46:31,000
Speaker 1: twelfth through the eighteenth. Okay, all right, I'm fudging fudging

1817
01:46:31,000 --> 01:46:33,400
Speaker 1: here a little bit because the event I'm going back

1818
01:46:33,400 --> 01:46:37,400
Speaker 1: to is actually in January eighth, nineteen eighteen. But it

1819
01:46:37,600 --> 01:46:40,800
Speaker 1: was the reaction to set event on January eighteenth that

1820
01:46:40,920 --> 01:46:43,640
Speaker 1: began trickling in on January twelve, thirteen and fourteenth. So

1821
01:46:44,920 --> 01:46:47,800
Speaker 1: I feel I feel like I can get away with

1822
01:46:47,880 --> 01:46:52,160
Speaker 1: this fudging of a day or two on it. So

1823
01:46:52,200 --> 01:46:56,640
Speaker 1: what am I talking about? January eighth, nineteen eighteen. It

1824
01:46:56,760 --> 01:46:59,040
Speaker 1: is the day that the sitting President of the United

1825
01:46:59,080 --> 01:47:03,240
Speaker 1: States at the time, would Or Wilson, decided to lay

1826
01:47:03,280 --> 01:47:07,800
Speaker 1: out a blueprint of what the world could look like

1827
01:47:09,040 --> 01:47:13,560
Speaker 1: for the rest of the twentieth century as a way. Essentially,

1828
01:47:14,120 --> 01:47:16,919
Speaker 1: what it was was a speech that outlined which eventually

1829
01:47:16,920 --> 01:47:21,400
Speaker 1: would become the twentieth century world order. So let's go

1830
01:47:21,520 --> 01:47:26,919
Speaker 1: back to it. It's a moment when the United States

1831
01:47:27,720 --> 01:47:29,400
Speaker 1: tried and it wasn't the first time we tried it

1832
01:47:30,720 --> 01:47:32,680
Speaker 1: at the time, but it was the fierce time we

1833
01:47:32,760 --> 01:47:36,760
Speaker 1: tried it in a more in its purest form, if

1834
01:47:36,800 --> 01:47:40,479
Speaker 1: you will, to define what kind of global power we

1835
01:47:40,560 --> 01:47:42,960
Speaker 1: wanted to be. And we didn't want to do it

1836
01:47:43,000 --> 01:47:45,400
Speaker 1: through conquest. We didn't want it to do it through

1837
01:47:45,400 --> 01:47:48,800
Speaker 1: empire building. We were trying to do it through ideas.

1838
01:47:49,439 --> 01:47:51,960
Speaker 1: And you have to understand, you know, we had just

1839
01:47:52,000 --> 01:47:54,800
Speaker 1: seen the fall of the Ottoman Empire, we had just

1840
01:47:54,840 --> 01:47:58,679
Speaker 1: seen the fall of other empires. We were still thinking

1841
01:47:58,720 --> 01:48:01,519
Speaker 1: an empire. We had a the Russian Revolution. It just

1842
01:48:01,560 --> 01:48:05,160
Speaker 1: sort of began, and it was doing its own form

1843
01:48:05,160 --> 01:48:08,040
Speaker 1: of empire building, and we were This was Woodrow Wilson

1844
01:48:08,040 --> 01:48:10,160
Speaker 1: making the case that we shouldn't have any more empires.

1845
01:48:11,680 --> 01:48:14,799
Speaker 1: So it's January nineteen eighteen. War War one is still raging.

1846
01:48:15,400 --> 01:48:19,000
Speaker 1: Millions have died from this great war. Europe is physically

1847
01:48:19,160 --> 01:48:24,559
Speaker 1: shattered and psychologically exhausted. Russia has just collapsed from its

1848
01:48:25,960 --> 01:48:29,559
Speaker 1: into its own revolution. No one knows how the war's

1849
01:48:29,600 --> 01:48:32,960
Speaker 1: going to end, or what replaces the old order when

1850
01:48:33,000 --> 01:48:37,880
Speaker 1: it does. So. Into that uncertainty stepped Woodrow Wilson, standing

1851
01:48:37,960 --> 01:48:40,200
Speaker 1: before a joint session of Congress. This was no state

1852
01:48:40,240 --> 01:48:43,200
Speaker 1: of the Union. This was a speech to a joint session.

1853
01:48:44,240 --> 01:48:47,120
Speaker 1: And what he delivers is not a battle plan. It's

1854
01:48:47,160 --> 01:48:49,599
Speaker 1: not even really a peace plan. It is a vision,

1855
01:48:50,320 --> 01:48:52,559
Speaker 1: his vision and how the world should work. And what's

1856
01:48:52,560 --> 01:48:56,000
Speaker 1: remarkable about it is is it essentially was the blueprint

1857
01:48:57,560 --> 01:49:00,040
Speaker 1: the time. The speech was radical. Wilson's speech, what we

1858
01:49:00,120 --> 01:49:04,200
Speaker 1: now call the Fourteen Points Speech, was radical not because

1859
01:49:04,200 --> 01:49:07,680
Speaker 1: it promised victory, but because it rejected the logic that

1860
01:49:07,720 --> 01:49:11,360
Speaker 1: had produced the war in the first place. Europe had

1861
01:49:11,400 --> 01:49:15,960
Speaker 1: spent centuries operating on the following premises, secret treaties, balance

1862
01:49:16,000 --> 01:49:20,680
Speaker 1: of power, politics, imperial competition, spheres of influence, if you

1863
01:49:20,720 --> 01:49:24,920
Speaker 1: will right well, Wilson thought the system was obsolete and dangerous,

1864
01:49:26,040 --> 01:49:28,440
Speaker 1: and he opens with a direct shot at old diplomacy.

1865
01:49:28,479 --> 01:49:31,880
Speaker 1: He said, this open covenants of peace openly arrived at,

1866
01:49:31,960 --> 01:49:35,479
Speaker 1: after which there shall be no private international understandings of

1867
01:49:35,560 --> 01:49:40,240
Speaker 1: any kind. That sentence alone was considered revolutionary. There were

1868
01:49:40,280 --> 01:49:43,120
Speaker 1: there would be no more secret deals, there'd be no

1869
01:49:43,200 --> 01:49:47,280
Speaker 1: more hidden clauses. There'd be no alliances that quietly obligated

1870
01:49:47,360 --> 01:49:51,719
Speaker 1: nations to die for decisions that were made behind closed doors.

1871
01:49:52,840 --> 01:49:55,840
Speaker 1: Wilson believed secrecy is what caused World War One, these

1872
01:49:56,120 --> 01:49:59,160
Speaker 1: bizarre alliances that forced countries in the war that some

1873
01:49:59,240 --> 01:50:03,000
Speaker 1: of whom didn't want to be in. So transparency, he believed,

1874
01:50:03,439 --> 01:50:08,280
Speaker 1: might have actually might prevent the next war. Yes, it's idealistic,

1875
01:50:09,200 --> 01:50:12,840
Speaker 1: but hey, that was America. That is what it is

1876
01:50:12,880 --> 01:50:16,280
Speaker 1: to be an American is to sometimes espouse the idealistic

1877
01:50:16,760 --> 01:50:18,760
Speaker 1: and see if you can find a path close to it.

1878
01:50:19,800 --> 01:50:23,960
Speaker 1: Immediately alarms. What's funny is that immediately his speech alarms

1879
01:50:24,240 --> 01:50:27,600
Speaker 1: the European powers who have been living and thriving on

1880
01:50:27,720 --> 01:50:33,719
Speaker 1: these secret arrangements. So The speech is called fourteen points,

1881
01:50:33,920 --> 01:50:38,040
Speaker 1: but really Wilson is advancing four big principles in this speech.

1882
01:50:38,720 --> 01:50:42,439
Speaker 1: The biggest one is openness and transparency. This is the

1883
01:50:42,479 --> 01:50:45,640
Speaker 1: moral core of Wilson. He argues that diplomacy should be

1884
01:50:45,680 --> 01:50:49,720
Speaker 1: accountable not just to governments, but to people. How radical right.

1885
01:50:50,640 --> 01:50:53,120
Speaker 1: This is the first time a world leader frames foreign

1886
01:50:53,200 --> 01:50:55,519
Speaker 1: policy is something that must be legitimate in the eyes

1887
01:50:55,520 --> 01:51:00,200
Speaker 1: of the public, not just effective for elites. E. It

1888
01:51:00,439 --> 01:51:04,479
Speaker 1: can't just be transactional just for people in power. Just

1889
01:51:04,520 --> 01:51:07,439
Speaker 1: because you get rich off of a deal President Trump,

1890
01:51:07,479 --> 01:51:12,320
Speaker 1: doesn't mean it's necessarily good for America in nineteen eighteen.

1891
01:51:12,560 --> 01:51:16,759
Speaker 1: That's a new idea because for much of the previous

1892
01:51:16,800 --> 01:51:19,880
Speaker 1: century the world worked the way Donald Trump wants the

1893
01:51:19,920 --> 01:51:24,320
Speaker 1: world to work today. The second big idea is economic

1894
01:51:24,400 --> 01:51:31,439
Speaker 1: interdependence AH and economic internationalism, not economic nationalism. So Wilson

1895
01:51:31,479 --> 01:51:34,000
Speaker 1: calls for free trade, freedom of the seas, and equal

1896
01:51:34,040 --> 01:51:39,120
Speaker 1: economic access all right, not outcomes, just access. He says

1897
01:51:39,160 --> 01:51:41,280
Speaker 1: this in the speech, the removal, so far as possible,

1898
01:51:41,320 --> 01:51:44,880
Speaker 1: of all economic barriers and the establishment of equality of

1899
01:51:44,920 --> 01:51:49,320
Speaker 1: trade conditions among all the nations consenting to the peace,

1900
01:51:51,000 --> 01:51:54,640
Speaker 1: free trade for those that want peace. This is the

1901
01:51:54,760 --> 01:52:00,679
Speaker 1: intellectual ancestor of globalization, the idea that shared prosper makes

1902
01:52:01,080 --> 01:52:05,559
Speaker 1: war irrational. There's a lot of truthiness to this, and

1903
01:52:05,640 --> 01:52:08,439
Speaker 1: what happens when you have When the biggest country on

1904
01:52:08,479 --> 01:52:12,599
Speaker 1: Earth decides to pursue economic nationalism, so does everybody else.

1905
01:52:13,840 --> 01:52:18,160
Speaker 1: And that's why I have my opening monologue in this episode,

1906
01:52:18,160 --> 01:52:21,360
Speaker 1: which is twenty twenty six, the year we're living dangerously.

1907
01:52:22,600 --> 01:52:25,920
Speaker 1: Back to Wilson, he's betting that capitalism plus rules will

1908
01:52:26,000 --> 01:52:30,320
Speaker 1: equal peace. Yes, it's idealistic, but guess what it is

1909
01:52:30,360 --> 01:52:32,960
Speaker 1: the whole point of who we are and what we

1910
01:52:33,080 --> 01:52:35,720
Speaker 1: claim that we want to be. It's a bet that

1911
01:52:35,720 --> 01:52:40,240
Speaker 1: the twentieth century keeps making with frankly mixed results. Though

1912
01:52:40,280 --> 01:52:42,719
Speaker 1: it had been it was really good for the free world.

1913
01:52:43,720 --> 01:52:46,320
Speaker 1: Third point of his speech was self determination. This may

1914
01:52:46,360 --> 01:52:49,160
Speaker 1: be the most explosive idea in the speech. At the time.

1915
01:52:49,400 --> 01:52:52,000
Speaker 1: Wilson is arguing that people, not empires, should decide their

1916
01:52:52,000 --> 01:52:56,240
Speaker 1: political futures. Not everybody has embraced democracy in nineteen eighteen. Okay,

1917
01:52:56,880 --> 01:53:02,120
Speaker 1: borders should reflect identity, language, and consent. This line electrifies Europe.

1918
01:53:02,200 --> 01:53:06,040
Speaker 1: It also quietly terrifies the imperial powers, because once you say,

1919
01:53:06,080 --> 01:53:10,360
Speaker 1: self determination. You can't easily limit it to Europeans. Colonized

1920
01:53:10,400 --> 01:53:12,479
Speaker 1: peoples in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East are listening

1921
01:53:12,600 --> 01:53:17,479
Speaker 1: quite closely and noticing in what parts of the world

1922
01:53:17,560 --> 01:53:22,559
Speaker 1: Wilson has chosen to stay silent. A League of nations.

1923
01:53:23,280 --> 01:53:25,599
Speaker 1: The final point is the most important one. Right Wilson

1924
01:53:25,600 --> 01:53:28,960
Speaker 1: proposes a general association of nations must be formed for

1925
01:53:29,000 --> 01:53:32,439
Speaker 1: the purpose of affording mutual guarantees of political independence and

1926
01:53:32,520 --> 01:53:37,800
Speaker 1: territorial integrity to great and small states alike. This is

1927
01:53:37,840 --> 01:53:41,680
Speaker 1: the heart of Wilsonianism. This is something the right. There

1928
01:53:41,720 --> 01:53:44,680
Speaker 1: are elements of the right that have hated Wilson. If

1929
01:53:44,760 --> 01:53:46,960
Speaker 1: those of you remember, Glenn Beck has been obsessed with

1930
01:53:47,040 --> 01:53:50,679
Speaker 1: being an anti Wilsonian for years. It's because of this right.

1931
01:53:50,720 --> 01:53:54,240
Speaker 1: It's the fear of a global world order. It's the

1932
01:53:54,360 --> 01:53:59,240
Speaker 1: fear that America isn't exceptional compared to everybody else on Earth.

1933
01:53:59,280 --> 01:54:01,719
Speaker 1: Our ideas are exceptional compared to a lot of people

1934
01:54:01,800 --> 01:54:06,200
Speaker 1: on Earth, but you don't accept the premise that we

1935
01:54:06,320 --> 01:54:10,480
Speaker 1: all should have equal access to the opportunity that we want.

1936
01:54:12,479 --> 01:54:16,519
Speaker 1: So there's been a fight over Wilsonianism for over one

1937
01:54:16,560 --> 01:54:20,080
Speaker 1: hundred years, ever since he said it He believed in

1938
01:54:20,080 --> 01:54:23,920
Speaker 1: collective security, permanent diplomacy, and an international body designed not

1939
01:54:23,960 --> 01:54:26,600
Speaker 1: to win wars, but to simply prevent them. It is

1940
01:54:26,640 --> 01:54:29,479
Speaker 1: the philosophical foundation of the United Nations, NATO, and the

1941
01:54:29,479 --> 01:54:32,560
Speaker 1: post World War two Liberal Order nineteen eighteen. Though it

1942
01:54:32,600 --> 01:54:36,680
Speaker 1: was just an idea. Now, look, we're going to get

1943
01:54:36,680 --> 01:54:39,000
Speaker 1: to the different comparisons. I mean, I think in the

1944
01:54:39,000 --> 01:54:43,640
Speaker 1: Wilsonian idealistic mindset, you know, those that would be in

1945
01:54:43,680 --> 01:54:45,840
Speaker 1: this League of Nations had to actually agree to these

1946
01:54:45,880 --> 01:54:48,880
Speaker 1: principles of freedom, of democracy, of power to the people.

1947
01:54:49,560 --> 01:54:52,040
Speaker 1: I think the flaw in the United Nations is accepting

1948
01:54:52,080 --> 01:54:54,640
Speaker 1: any country, no matter how they treat their people. But

1949
01:54:55,120 --> 01:54:58,800
Speaker 1: I digress. So why was the world listening? And here

1950
01:54:58,840 --> 01:54:59,920
Speaker 1: why did the speech matter so?

1951
01:55:00,240 --> 01:55:00,320
Speaker 2: Well?

1952
01:55:00,320 --> 01:55:03,320
Speaker 1: Here's why it mattered so much. Wilson isn't speaking as

1953
01:55:03,320 --> 01:55:06,680
Speaker 1: a defeated power or a desperate one. Right the United

1954
01:55:06,680 --> 01:55:10,880
Speaker 1: States enters World War One late, our economy is booming,

1955
01:55:11,840 --> 01:55:15,360
Speaker 1: our cities are intact, our population has not been traumatized

1956
01:55:15,840 --> 01:55:20,680
Speaker 1: the way Europe's was. Wilson wanted to position America not

1957
01:55:20,760 --> 01:55:23,840
Speaker 1: as a conqueror, but as an arbiter. He says, this

1958
01:55:24,240 --> 01:55:26,240
Speaker 1: what we seek is the reign of law based upon

1959
01:55:26,280 --> 01:55:31,440
Speaker 1: the consent of the governed, practice what we preach right now, Look,

1960
01:55:31,440 --> 01:55:33,640
Speaker 1: we hadn't We weren't a perfect union in nineteen eighteen.

1961
01:55:33,640 --> 01:55:35,400
Speaker 1: Not everybody had the right to vote nineteen eighteen. So

1962
01:55:35,440 --> 01:55:37,720
Speaker 1: I don't want to I don't want to sugarcoat that,

1963
01:55:38,560 --> 01:55:42,000
Speaker 1: but we certainly were trying to build a more perfect union.

1964
01:55:42,520 --> 01:55:45,440
Speaker 1: And in that principle was one that Wilson was articulating

1965
01:55:45,880 --> 01:55:50,280
Speaker 1: for the world, and the line landed to exhausted Europeans.

1966
01:55:50,280 --> 01:55:54,000
Speaker 1: Wilson sounded like the future to small nations. He also

1967
01:55:54,040 --> 01:55:58,800
Speaker 1: sounded like a protector to old empires. He sounded like

1968
01:55:58,840 --> 01:56:05,040
Speaker 1: a threat. So let's fast forward to nineteen nineteen. Right,

1969
01:56:05,080 --> 01:56:06,960
Speaker 1: this is a year after he gives the famous speech.

1970
01:56:07,720 --> 01:56:11,160
Speaker 1: The war is over, the Paris Peace Conference begins, and

1971
01:56:11,200 --> 01:56:14,760
Speaker 1: this is where Wilson's vision collides with power politics. France

1972
01:56:14,760 --> 01:56:19,360
Speaker 1: wants Germany weakened permanently. Britain wants to preserve its empire

1973
01:56:19,400 --> 01:56:24,360
Speaker 1: whatever was left. Italy wants territory. Everyone wants guarantees. Wilson

1974
01:56:24,400 --> 01:56:28,080
Speaker 1: wants principles. He famously says there must not be a

1975
01:56:28,080 --> 01:56:31,800
Speaker 1: balance of power, but a community of power. I know

1976
01:56:31,960 --> 01:56:34,800
Speaker 1: it sounds naive, but my gosh, it's good to know

1977
01:56:34,880 --> 01:56:37,880
Speaker 1: somebody tried. But Paris is not a seminar. It's a

1978
01:56:37,920 --> 01:56:42,000
Speaker 1: negotiation among traumatized nations. The result is the Treaty of Versailles,

1979
01:56:42,040 --> 01:56:46,480
Speaker 1: which of course essentially signs the death warrant for so

1980
01:56:46,600 --> 01:56:50,280
Speaker 1: many because it helps bring upon World War two. Germany

1981
01:56:50,360 --> 01:56:53,560
Speaker 1: is punished, borders are redrawn in perfectly, self determination is

1982
01:56:53,560 --> 01:56:58,400
Speaker 1: applied inconsistently, Resentment is baked into the peace. All Wilson

1983
01:56:58,400 --> 01:57:01,560
Speaker 1: got was an agreement on the legal nations, but it

1984
01:57:01,640 --> 01:57:04,280
Speaker 1: was at a steep cost elsewhere. And of course the

1985
01:57:04,360 --> 01:57:08,920
Speaker 1: ultimate irony was the United States, the country that proposed

1986
01:57:10,120 --> 01:57:13,480
Speaker 1: said League of Nations, never joins it. The Senate rejects

1987
01:57:13,480 --> 01:57:17,120
Speaker 1: the treaty, isolation is and wins. Wilson campaigns for it anyway,

1988
01:57:17,280 --> 01:57:21,160
Speaker 1: he collapses from a stroke. It looks like it's all over.

1989
01:57:21,240 --> 01:57:25,040
Speaker 1: America invents modern international idealism and walks away from it.

1990
01:57:25,160 --> 01:57:28,080
Speaker 1: Such an American thing to do, sometimes right, This is

1991
01:57:28,080 --> 01:57:31,400
Speaker 1: the moment, though, that the world something learns something lasting

1992
01:57:31,440 --> 01:57:36,000
Speaker 1: about the United States. American leadership is powerful, but it

1993
01:57:36,080 --> 01:57:43,800
Speaker 1: is not always permanent, and the American people sometimes don't

1994
01:57:43,800 --> 01:57:46,640
Speaker 1: always follow the path that a leader wants them to take.

1995
01:57:49,840 --> 01:57:50,280
Speaker 2: Anyway.

1996
01:57:50,400 --> 01:57:53,240
Speaker 1: It's an important speech because you could argue every major

1997
01:57:53,240 --> 01:57:56,680
Speaker 1: global debate that we have today traces back to this speech.

1998
01:57:56,800 --> 01:58:04,280
Speaker 1: Ukraine that self determination versus fears of influence, Venezuela, same thing, Taiwan,

1999
01:58:04,920 --> 01:58:13,040
Speaker 1: same thing. So look, it's an important speech. Widrow Wilson.

2000
01:58:13,520 --> 01:58:23,880
Speaker 1: I know there's there is plenty of stuff and plenty

2001
01:58:23,880 --> 01:58:26,400
Speaker 1: of his political views that are a little that are terrible.

2002
01:58:27,560 --> 01:58:30,600
Speaker 1: I think he was He dabbled in eugenics. He certainly

2003
01:58:30,640 --> 01:58:35,000
Speaker 1: was an avowed racist. A lot of Americans were avowed

2004
01:58:35,080 --> 01:58:39,280
Speaker 1: racist back then, Teddy Roosevelt, there were quite a few.

2005
01:58:41,400 --> 01:58:42,720
Speaker 1: But this is why you got to be careful of

2006
01:58:42,720 --> 01:58:48,320
Speaker 1: a racing history. Every political leader in America has had

2007
01:58:48,360 --> 01:58:51,120
Speaker 1: good and bad. The question is how much of the

2008
01:58:51,120 --> 01:58:52,800
Speaker 1: good outweighed the bad, how much of the bad outweigh

2009
01:58:52,800 --> 01:58:55,320
Speaker 1: the good. That's a debate that sometimes lasts forever with

2010
01:58:55,400 --> 01:59:00,400
Speaker 1: certain presidents, others not so much. But the bottom line

2011
01:59:00,480 --> 01:59:07,520
Speaker 1: is the world you know, the world order that did

2012
01:59:07,640 --> 01:59:13,040
Speaker 1: keep relative peace in the twentieth century, that essentially gave

2013
01:59:13,080 --> 01:59:20,120
Speaker 1: America soft power. One could argue it was Wilson himself

2014
01:59:20,160 --> 01:59:25,840
Speaker 1: that helped build it and sparked the idea that helped

2015
01:59:25,880 --> 01:59:30,880
Speaker 1: build the mechanism that gave us the soft power advantage

2016
01:59:31,040 --> 01:59:36,400
Speaker 1: that we've all benefited from. And we can find flaws

2017
01:59:36,440 --> 01:59:40,640
Speaker 1: in this system that have hurt certain communities at different times,

2018
01:59:41,760 --> 01:59:44,440
Speaker 1: but the overall trajectory for this country has been positive.

2019
01:59:45,760 --> 01:59:50,160
Speaker 1: Taking all of that away, completely, reversing everything we've pursued

2020
01:59:50,200 --> 01:59:55,120
Speaker 1: over the last hundred years puts America in a place

2021
01:59:55,520 --> 02:00:00,360
Speaker 1: that I think we are not going to like anyway.

2022
02:00:00,360 --> 02:00:05,919
Speaker 1: There's your there's your time machine for the week. Wilson's

2023
02:00:05,920 --> 02:00:09,000
Speaker 1: fourteen point speech. If you've never read it, go take

2024
02:00:09,000 --> 02:00:13,040
Speaker 1: a look. It's amazing how how both pressure it was

2025
02:00:14,200 --> 02:00:16,720
Speaker 1: and at the same time how naive it could sound,

2026
02:00:17,120 --> 02:00:22,600
Speaker 1: and at the same time how kind of a bummer

2027
02:00:22,600 --> 02:00:25,360
Speaker 1: it is that there's we're not really having any good

2028
02:00:25,360 --> 02:00:27,640
Speaker 1: debates like this today. It would be nice I do

2029
02:00:36,760 --> 02:00:39,480
Speaker 1: all right, let's do a little Ask Chuck, Ask Chuck.

2030
02:00:44,800 --> 02:00:48,120
Speaker 1: Remember Ask Chuck. You can email any questions to ask

2031
02:00:48,240 --> 02:00:51,760
Speaker 1: Chuck at thechucktodcast dot com. You can do it in

2032
02:00:51,800 --> 02:00:55,200
Speaker 1: the comments section of YouTube. You can do it. We

2033
02:00:55,280 --> 02:00:59,400
Speaker 1: will take a look at the replies and acts and

2034
02:00:59,480 --> 02:01:02,480
Speaker 1: Instagram and Facebook. It's a little harder to get those questions,

2035
02:01:02,480 --> 02:01:05,800
Speaker 1: but you want to leave questions there. Great. We really

2036
02:01:05,920 --> 02:01:09,080
Speaker 1: encourage you to add to so that we actually see

2037
02:01:09,080 --> 02:01:10,800
Speaker 1: these questions, to send them to ask Chuck at the

2038
02:01:10,960 --> 02:01:14,760
Speaker 1: Chuck podcast dot com. And with that, let's get into

2039
02:01:14,800 --> 02:01:18,840
Speaker 1: a few questions. I'm gonna read these first two straight

2040
02:01:18,920 --> 02:01:20,640
Speaker 1: up and then respond to both of them collective. They're

2041
02:01:20,640 --> 02:01:24,000
Speaker 1: both about Minneapolis. Number one, loving the fired up Chuck

2042
02:01:24,040 --> 02:01:26,120
Speaker 1: Todd this morning. Amen, everything you said on the podcast,

2043
02:01:26,120 --> 02:01:28,000
Speaker 1: Thank you for speaking out. We need more voices of

2044
02:01:28,040 --> 02:01:31,440
Speaker 1: reason like yours right now. Pat Ps, I live in Minneapolis.

2045
02:01:31,440 --> 02:01:35,080
Speaker 1: Of the episode hit especially close to home. Here's another comment, Chuck,

2046
02:01:35,120 --> 02:01:36,760
Speaker 1: thank you from the bottom of my heart for today's

2047
02:01:36,760 --> 02:01:39,800
Speaker 1: special episode on ice in Minneapolis. I'm heartbroken for my city.

2048
02:01:39,840 --> 02:01:41,800
Speaker 1: I'm terrified Trump will use this as an excuse to

2049
02:01:41,800 --> 02:01:44,840
Speaker 1: come in stronger and destroy our kindness. Please keep using

2050
02:01:44,840 --> 02:01:46,960
Speaker 1: your platform for this truth bomb. I appreciate you so much.

2051
02:01:47,000 --> 02:01:52,760
Speaker 1: All the best, Kim. Look, it's why I spend some time.

2052
02:01:53,640 --> 02:01:58,000
Speaker 1: I hope you've digested the Ruby Ridge comparison. You know

2053
02:01:58,440 --> 02:02:02,840
Speaker 1: everybody wants to quickly everybody's reaction to Minneapolis in a

2054
02:02:02,960 --> 02:02:06,320
Speaker 1: left prism or a right prism. I'm here what is

2055
02:02:06,440 --> 02:02:09,920
Speaker 1: right and what is wrong? All I am begging our

2056
02:02:10,000 --> 02:02:15,200
Speaker 1: elected officials to do is to put themselves in the

2057
02:02:15,240 --> 02:02:19,080
Speaker 1: shoes of Renee Good when they want to protest a

2058
02:02:19,120 --> 02:02:22,440
Speaker 1: policy they don't agree with, do they think responding with

2059
02:02:22,560 --> 02:02:29,360
Speaker 1: lethal force is the right answer here? Political views should

2060
02:02:29,440 --> 02:02:33,840
Speaker 1: not justify violence in the United States of America. We

2061
02:02:33,920 --> 02:02:41,080
Speaker 1: have constitutional rights for a reason. All right. Next question

2062
02:02:41,200 --> 02:02:45,560
Speaker 1: comes from Scott L. Navy veteran Jacksonville, Florida. He goes,

2063
02:02:45,600 --> 02:02:47,440
Speaker 1: I got a couple of questions I've been mulling over. First,

2064
02:02:47,480 --> 02:02:49,480
Speaker 1: I can't help but wonder why the US hasn't taken

2065
02:02:49,520 --> 02:02:51,600
Speaker 1: stronger action to remove the leader of Haiti. Does it

2066
02:02:51,600 --> 02:02:53,960
Speaker 1: all come down to a lack of strategic interest like oil?

2067
02:02:55,200 --> 02:02:57,440
Speaker 1: And Second, do you think Rob Emmanuel could realistically pose

2068
02:02:57,480 --> 02:02:59,960
Speaker 1: a challenge to Gavin Newsom for the Democratic presidential nomination?

2069
02:03:01,240 --> 02:03:05,440
Speaker 1: And Scott wants to also says hashtag Navy veteran from Jacksonville, Florida,

2070
02:03:06,520 --> 02:03:10,480
Speaker 1: You should also say Jaguar fail. Right, It's a let's

2071
02:03:10,520 --> 02:03:15,480
Speaker 1: hope this is a that that the Jaguars can get

2072
02:03:15,480 --> 02:03:20,440
Speaker 1: some positive vibes in the NFL playoffs. And I am fully.

2073
02:03:20,640 --> 02:03:23,320
Speaker 1: I will admit I am responding to this question in

2074
02:03:23,360 --> 02:03:29,280
Speaker 1: the middle of said game. But I digress. I'm with

2075
02:03:29,320 --> 02:03:34,080
Speaker 1: you on Haiti, right, I and your I have a

2076
02:03:34,560 --> 02:03:38,720
Speaker 1: your Your initial cynicism is my cynicism. Right. If there

2077
02:03:38,760 --> 02:03:43,760
Speaker 1: was a natural resource that was seen as incredibly important

2078
02:03:43,800 --> 02:03:47,280
Speaker 1: in the United States, do I think we'd be taking

2079
02:03:47,360 --> 02:03:52,520
Speaker 1: a stronger hand in Haiti? I would that, said man.

2080
02:03:52,920 --> 02:03:57,360
Speaker 1: Presidents of both parties have screwed up Haiti. It has

2081
02:03:57,440 --> 02:04:00,960
Speaker 1: been a hard thing to get at the right. There's

2082
02:04:01,080 --> 02:04:08,400
Speaker 1: we've we don't seem to ever get Haiti right. You know,

2083
02:04:08,440 --> 02:04:10,400
Speaker 1: you look, it's one of those you know, one of

2084
02:04:10,400 --> 02:04:14,320
Speaker 1: the great mysteries to me is this island of Hispaniola, right,

2085
02:04:14,440 --> 02:04:17,640
Speaker 1: this mountain range that separates the Dominican Republic from Haiti,

2086
02:04:17,680 --> 02:04:20,560
Speaker 1: and the Dominican Republic is in one of these great

2087
02:04:20,600 --> 02:04:23,560
Speaker 1: tourist spots, one of the great place many Americans I

2088
02:04:23,560 --> 02:04:25,840
Speaker 1: know love going to the Dominican have a great time.

2089
02:04:26,120 --> 02:04:30,240
Speaker 1: It's such a great stable country, producer of incredible baseball talent,

2090
02:04:30,320 --> 02:04:33,480
Speaker 1: and all sorts of other things. We you know, most

2091
02:04:33,520 --> 02:04:36,880
Speaker 1: of the if you're a cigar smoker, your favorite cigars,

2092
02:04:36,960 --> 02:04:39,120
Speaker 1: many of them are rolled in and grown and the

2093
02:04:39,160 --> 02:04:42,680
Speaker 1: tobacco grown in the Dominican and yet this mountain range

2094
02:04:43,040 --> 02:04:45,480
Speaker 1: and we have and then you have Haiti like it

2095
02:04:45,680 --> 02:04:48,760
Speaker 1: just it's it's it's heartbreaking and somebody grew up in Miami.

2096
02:04:48,800 --> 02:04:53,080
Speaker 1: The whole thing is heartbreaking and it's it's it's an

2097
02:04:53,080 --> 02:04:57,720
Speaker 1: amazing culture. The Haitian culture, art culture, food cultures is

2098
02:04:57,800 --> 02:05:00,600
Speaker 1: just it's a real treat. If you've if you've never

2099
02:05:00,720 --> 02:05:06,520
Speaker 1: experienced it, and I highly encourage it, but I've been.

2100
02:05:10,080 --> 02:05:13,000
Speaker 1: You know, this decision to outsource, you know, it's weird

2101
02:05:13,400 --> 02:05:15,880
Speaker 1: if if we're gonna, are we going to cherry pick

2102
02:05:16,240 --> 02:05:20,520
Speaker 1: what's America first? In the hemisphere? Right? Look, instability in

2103
02:05:20,560 --> 02:05:23,640
Speaker 1: Haiti is not good for stability in South Florida.

2104
02:05:23,880 --> 02:05:24,080
Speaker 2: You know.

2105
02:05:24,680 --> 02:05:27,520
Speaker 1: Instability in Haiti is not good for stability in the Caribbean.

2106
02:05:27,720 --> 02:05:31,560
Speaker 1: Instability in the Caribbean is not good for the United States. So, uh,

2107
02:05:31,800 --> 02:05:33,960
Speaker 1: I think we need to figure out how to be

2108
02:05:33,960 --> 02:05:38,440
Speaker 1: a better, uh, a better partner here in Haiti. But look,

2109
02:05:38,440 --> 02:05:42,960
Speaker 1: there's a lot of corruption. The gang issue is has been,

2110
02:05:43,440 --> 02:05:45,920
Speaker 1: you know, and and if it is sending the US

2111
02:05:46,000 --> 02:05:50,360
Speaker 1: military the answer, right like, is that really gonna work?

2112
02:05:51,680 --> 02:05:57,520
Speaker 1: The outsourcing to Kenya Uh. I know there's been some

2113
02:05:57,640 --> 02:06:00,520
Speaker 1: concern that their rules of engagement are not the same

2114
02:06:00,560 --> 02:06:03,920
Speaker 1: as maybe what the United States or what other American

2115
02:06:03,960 --> 02:06:10,520
Speaker 1: militaries would use. So it is I suspect we'll turn

2116
02:06:10,560 --> 02:06:13,480
Speaker 1: our focus to Haiti after we're done focusing on Venezuela

2117
02:06:13,560 --> 02:06:16,040
Speaker 1: and Cuba. And who's to say that even happens at all.

2118
02:06:16,800 --> 02:06:22,480
Speaker 1: But let me add one more cynical response to your

2119
02:06:22,600 --> 02:06:26,440
Speaker 1: question there, Scott, which is, if the Haitian political community

2120
02:06:26,640 --> 02:06:33,400
Speaker 1: had more political power in South Florida, would South Florida

2121
02:06:33,720 --> 02:06:36,280
Speaker 1: members of Congress care more about the issue itself and

2122
02:06:36,320 --> 02:06:40,840
Speaker 1: bring that attention right. The reason Venezuela is on top

2123
02:06:40,880 --> 02:06:43,440
Speaker 1: of the president's agenda, the reason Cuba's near the top

2124
02:06:43,480 --> 02:06:46,320
Speaker 1: of the president's agenda because Marco Ruby has made sure

2125
02:06:46,360 --> 02:06:50,240
Speaker 1: it has. Haiti's not a priority for him. So therefore

2126
02:06:50,240 --> 02:06:53,520
Speaker 1: Haiti hasn't been a priority for Donald Trump. So that

2127
02:06:53,520 --> 02:06:57,880
Speaker 1: would be another aspect of this. But unstable Haiti's bad

2128
02:06:57,920 --> 02:07:00,000
Speaker 1: for not just Haiti, but it's bad for the United States,

2129
02:07:00,000 --> 02:07:02,240
Speaker 1: it's bad for South Florida, it's bad for the Caribbean.

2130
02:07:04,120 --> 02:07:06,080
Speaker 1: But it does feel as if this shouldn't be an

2131
02:07:06,080 --> 02:07:09,320
Speaker 1: American alone answer right. You know, we need the help

2132
02:07:09,360 --> 02:07:13,320
Speaker 1: of everybody in the Caribbean on this one. As for

2133
02:07:13,400 --> 02:07:16,720
Speaker 1: your question on rom Emmanuel, I'm skeptical that either Ram

2134
02:07:16,840 --> 02:07:24,440
Speaker 1: or Gavin. Look, I don't know how much you know.

2135
02:07:24,520 --> 02:07:29,960
Speaker 1: I look at this is is Gavin Newsome the tortoise

2136
02:07:29,960 --> 02:07:32,000
Speaker 1: of the hair right if you want to use that.

2137
02:07:32,080 --> 02:07:35,160
Speaker 1: He looks like a hair to me, he's raced out

2138
02:07:35,200 --> 02:07:38,360
Speaker 1: in front by being the guy that will take on Trump.

2139
02:07:39,000 --> 02:07:40,760
Speaker 1: But I'm not sure being the guy that takes on

2140
02:07:40,800 --> 02:07:44,840
Speaker 1: Trump is the number one thing Democratic primary voters are

2141
02:07:44,840 --> 02:07:47,560
Speaker 1: going to want in January of twenty twenty eight. It

2142
02:07:47,600 --> 02:07:49,800
Speaker 1: may be what they want right now because Donald Trump

2143
02:07:49,880 --> 02:07:54,680
Speaker 1: is the threat that's in front of them. So you're

2144
02:07:54,720 --> 02:07:56,960
Speaker 1: asking me, I don't stand with the premise. I don't

2145
02:07:57,000 --> 02:07:59,840
Speaker 1: view Gavin as the front run. I view Gavin is

2146
02:08:00,240 --> 02:08:04,120
Speaker 1: sort of being the chief anti Trump spokesperson for the

2147
02:08:04,120 --> 02:08:06,480
Speaker 1: party right now, who's got the most credibility with the

2148
02:08:06,520 --> 02:08:10,000
Speaker 1: base of the party, being the anti Trumper. But I'm

2149
02:08:10,000 --> 02:08:13,120
Speaker 1: not sure I see him as I don't equate that

2150
02:08:13,160 --> 02:08:15,680
Speaker 1: with presidential frontrunner status that I know with polling shows,

2151
02:08:15,760 --> 02:08:17,640
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's there yet. That's for Roman

2152
02:08:17,680 --> 02:08:22,320
Speaker 1: Manuel you know, I tell you his his tenure in

2153
02:08:22,400 --> 02:08:25,280
Speaker 1: Chicago's aging. Well, we're about to have our second straight

2154
02:08:25,280 --> 02:08:28,200
Speaker 1: one term mayor in Chicago. He's the last two term mayor.

2155
02:08:28,640 --> 02:08:31,720
Speaker 1: So while you could argue that he didn't solve the

2156
02:08:32,680 --> 02:08:36,000
Speaker 1: problem with gangs in that city, and he didn't get

2157
02:08:36,000 --> 02:08:38,480
Speaker 1: at some of the sort of intractable problems that the

2158
02:08:38,560 --> 02:08:40,560
Speaker 1: daily machine had never been able to deal with, let

2159
02:08:40,600 --> 02:08:43,720
Speaker 1: alone wrong, he certainly seemed to manage the city a

2160
02:08:43,760 --> 02:08:45,600
Speaker 1: heck of a lot better than the two more liberal

2161
02:08:45,680 --> 02:08:50,280
Speaker 1: replacements that have had, So I do think his tenure

2162
02:08:50,280 --> 02:08:53,480
Speaker 1: in Chicago is aging better by the month. When it

2163
02:08:53,480 --> 02:09:00,600
Speaker 1: comes to the most recent mayors. You know, it's interesting

2164
02:09:01,200 --> 02:09:05,160
Speaker 1: will the next Democratic nominee. Can you be completely at

2165
02:09:05,200 --> 02:09:07,879
Speaker 1: war with the progressive left and get the Democratic nomination

2166
02:09:08,480 --> 02:09:11,000
Speaker 1: or do you need to accommodate the progressive left somewhere?

2167
02:09:13,800 --> 02:09:16,240
Speaker 1: And I think that the likely nominee is going to

2168
02:09:16,240 --> 02:09:19,360
Speaker 1: be somebody that isn't antagonistic to any wing of the party,

2169
02:09:20,080 --> 02:09:22,480
Speaker 1: but is seen as somebody who can quote unquote Win.

2170
02:09:25,160 --> 02:09:29,880
Speaker 1: I'm not sure rom can escape what will be a

2171
02:09:30,440 --> 02:09:33,320
Speaker 1: ferocious progressive left, and he may be the person they

2172
02:09:33,400 --> 02:09:37,160
Speaker 1: choose to take down almost as symbol, but he may

2173
02:09:37,280 --> 02:09:41,720
Speaker 1: serve an important you know, he may his candidacy may

2174
02:09:42,000 --> 02:09:45,720
Speaker 1: matter a lot because it forces conversations in the democratic

2175
02:09:45,760 --> 02:09:49,800
Speaker 1: debate that maybe others aren't having it. I think his

2176
02:09:50,000 --> 02:09:54,200
Speaker 1: commentary on school reform has been quite strong. You should

2177
02:09:54,240 --> 02:09:59,000
Speaker 1: take a look at it. And yes, you could say

2178
02:09:59,040 --> 02:10:02,920
Speaker 1: his record in Chicago mixed on school reform, but you

2179
02:10:02,960 --> 02:10:05,480
Speaker 1: know he's speaking with a clarity when it comes to

2180
02:10:05,520 --> 02:10:08,160
Speaker 1: social media and how much that's harming our kids. He's

2181
02:10:08,160 --> 02:10:10,080
Speaker 1: calling for the full ban of social media for anybody

2182
02:10:10,160 --> 02:10:13,280
Speaker 1: under the age of sixteen, really treating social media like smoking.

2183
02:10:15,560 --> 02:10:18,680
Speaker 1: I think he is going to be an important voice.

2184
02:10:19,160 --> 02:10:22,680
Speaker 1: I am skeptical that either Newsome or rom can overcome

2185
02:10:23,640 --> 02:10:26,640
Speaker 1: some of the negatives that I think will get exposed

2186
02:10:26,640 --> 02:10:30,360
Speaker 1: in a primary on that front. Next question comes from

2187
02:10:30,400 --> 02:10:33,880
Speaker 1: Adam from Wilton Manors, Florida. Hey, do you think an

2188
02:10:33,880 --> 02:10:37,000
Speaker 1: attack on Columbia or the arrest of President Petro would

2189
02:10:37,040 --> 02:10:39,320
Speaker 1: be a mistake for the administration. Columbia isn't like Iran

2190
02:10:39,400 --> 02:10:42,240
Speaker 1: or Venezuela. Americans live, work, and retire there. There are

2191
02:10:42,240 --> 02:10:45,040
Speaker 1: over fifty daily US flights or military has helped train Theirs,

2192
02:10:45,320 --> 02:10:47,360
Speaker 1: and their defense is strong, and he missedep to turn

2193
02:10:47,360 --> 02:10:50,360
Speaker 1: public sentiment against Americans and put are citizens at risk.

2194
02:10:50,680 --> 02:10:54,480
Speaker 1: President emboldened by the Venezuela operation might underestimate the fallout. Also,

2195
02:10:54,640 --> 02:10:58,240
Speaker 1: what if there were no smartphones or podcasts? Where would

2196
02:10:58,280 --> 02:11:01,960
Speaker 1: you be today? Thanks for the great podcast, glad you're

2197
02:11:01,960 --> 02:11:07,040
Speaker 1: an independent Adam from Wilton Manors. Well, then we would

2198
02:11:07,080 --> 02:11:09,520
Speaker 1: all be trying to write letters to the editor. Right,

2199
02:11:09,640 --> 02:11:12,440
Speaker 1: we'd go back to there if there were no h

2200
02:11:12,680 --> 02:11:17,440
Speaker 1: if there were no spot, smartphones or podcasts, imagine there's

2201
02:11:17,680 --> 02:11:20,200
Speaker 1: no people. Sorry, now I'm starting to make me think

2202
02:11:20,400 --> 02:11:21,200
Speaker 1: we should start singing.

2203
02:11:21,240 --> 02:11:21,720
Speaker 2: Imagine.

2204
02:11:22,400 --> 02:11:24,440
Speaker 1: I don't know, does that is that going to cost

2205
02:11:24,480 --> 02:11:27,240
Speaker 1: my That may cost me a lot of money to

2206
02:11:27,360 --> 02:11:30,480
Speaker 1: even sing that. That rights Paul McCartney will be beating

2207
02:11:30,480 --> 02:11:32,240
Speaker 1: down my door. I don't know who has the rights

2208
02:11:32,240 --> 02:11:35,680
Speaker 1: to imagine is it Yoko have the rights? But anyway,

2209
02:11:35,840 --> 02:11:40,240
Speaker 1: but I digress. Look you you uh. You surface an

2210
02:11:40,240 --> 02:11:42,880
Speaker 1: issue that I'm worried about, which is the tact The

2211
02:11:43,000 --> 02:11:49,720
Speaker 1: tactical event that extracted Maduro out of Venezuela was a

2212
02:11:49,840 --> 02:11:56,280
Speaker 1: huge success, was in a very effective military operation hard stop.

2213
02:11:57,560 --> 02:12:01,560
Speaker 1: Does that give the president comfort that he can just

2214
02:12:01,680 --> 02:12:05,480
Speaker 1: do this more willing, Nilly, I do fear he is

2215
02:12:05,640 --> 02:12:08,640
Speaker 1: going that he is going to accept more risk with

2216
02:12:08,680 --> 02:12:12,320
Speaker 1: his decisions than ever before. Right, And he's already been

2217
02:12:12,360 --> 02:12:15,760
Speaker 1: doing this what would have been seen as politically risky,

2218
02:12:15,880 --> 02:12:19,600
Speaker 1: pardoning everybody that participated in January sixth, he just went

2219
02:12:19,600 --> 02:12:25,720
Speaker 1: ahead and did it, pardoning the you know, anarco, you know,

2220
02:12:25,840 --> 02:12:29,600
Speaker 1: pardoning a former president of a country who was accused

2221
02:12:29,600 --> 02:12:33,480
Speaker 1: by his own justice department, and I remember It's Trump's

2222
02:12:33,520 --> 02:12:35,280
Speaker 1: justice department that and died of the former president of

2223
02:12:35,280 --> 02:12:42,800
Speaker 1: Honduras on drug charges. The fact that he pardoned him,

2224
02:12:42,840 --> 02:12:45,600
Speaker 1: and there's been no consequences, right, So, you know, he keeps,

2225
02:12:46,200 --> 02:12:48,800
Speaker 1: he keeps, you know, use the third rail, whatever you

2226
02:12:48,800 --> 02:12:51,120
Speaker 1: want to call it, keeps touching the hot stove. And

2227
02:12:51,160 --> 02:12:53,760
Speaker 1: he doesn't he doesn't think his hand's been burned. Now,

2228
02:12:53,800 --> 02:12:56,160
Speaker 1: maybe the reputation of the United States his hand has

2229
02:12:56,200 --> 02:12:58,440
Speaker 1: been burned, and that's going to be really hard to

2230
02:12:58,440 --> 02:13:00,960
Speaker 1: recover from long after Donald Trump is dead and gone.

2231
02:13:02,200 --> 02:13:06,400
Speaker 1: But he himself has not felt any punishment with the

2232
02:13:06,520 --> 02:13:10,400
Speaker 1: risks he's taken. So you are right to be concerned

2233
02:13:10,400 --> 02:13:15,240
Speaker 1: that he may feel more emboldened than ever. Look, I'm

2234
02:13:15,320 --> 02:13:18,800
Speaker 1: very worried, you know, Colombia. Look, Petro is less friendly

2235
02:13:18,880 --> 02:13:22,160
Speaker 1: to the United States. He kind of ran a campaign

2236
02:13:22,320 --> 02:13:25,960
Speaker 1: against you know, but Columbia has been a fairly normal

2237
02:13:26,520 --> 02:13:29,960
Speaker 1: democracy as it's finally come out right, it has been operating.

2238
02:13:30,000 --> 02:13:32,000
Speaker 1: It's been an important ally to the United States and

2239
02:13:32,320 --> 02:13:34,320
Speaker 1: down there. The Columbia Free Trade Agreement was one of

2240
02:13:34,320 --> 02:13:37,200
Speaker 1: the first ones we signed in Latin America that was binary.

2241
02:13:38,520 --> 02:13:42,320
Speaker 1: It's been good for both countries. You are correct. There's

2242
02:13:42,360 --> 02:13:47,640
Speaker 1: a lot of American businesses that have headquarters in various

2243
02:13:47,640 --> 02:13:52,000
Speaker 1: cities in Columbia. It is a It's also become a

2244
02:13:52,040 --> 02:13:57,240
Speaker 1: fairly popular place to vacation as well. Now Colombia has

2245
02:13:57,240 --> 02:14:01,000
Speaker 1: been you know, the the chaos and Metasa, which was

2246
02:14:01,040 --> 02:14:04,520
Speaker 1: there before we extracted. Maduro was creating all sorts of

2247
02:14:04,560 --> 02:14:12,240
Speaker 1: border issues for Colombian Columbia. Ironically, before Donald Trump started

2248
02:14:12,280 --> 02:14:16,640
Speaker 1: trash talking President Petro, it was pretty clear that the

2249
02:14:17,600 --> 02:14:20,400
Speaker 1: next election, which is you know, Columbia holds its presidential

2250
02:14:20,440 --> 02:14:23,680
Speaker 1: elections later this year, the next election was likely going

2251
02:14:23,720 --> 02:14:25,320
Speaker 1: to go to the political party that was a bit

2252
02:14:25,320 --> 02:14:28,600
Speaker 1: more friendly to the United States. It's somewhat of a

2253
02:14:28,640 --> 02:14:33,560
Speaker 1: right leaning party, you know. I know that there was

2254
02:14:33,600 --> 02:14:36,520
Speaker 1: a lot of concern when Petro won. I happened to

2255
02:14:36,560 --> 02:14:40,000
Speaker 1: be happen to know a little extra something about the

2256
02:14:40,000 --> 02:14:42,640
Speaker 1: politics of Colombia due to a friend of mine who's

2257
02:14:42,680 --> 02:14:48,520
Speaker 1: been very involved with charity in Columbia for decades, and

2258
02:14:48,600 --> 02:14:53,800
Speaker 1: so I've I've gotten to know some Colombian officials quite

2259
02:14:53,800 --> 02:14:58,480
Speaker 1: a bit. And so I guess my fear of what

2260
02:14:58,600 --> 02:15:02,160
Speaker 1: he's doing with Petro is that he ends up strengthening

2261
02:15:02,240 --> 02:15:06,200
Speaker 1: that you know, leftist party and then they and then

2262
02:15:06,360 --> 02:15:10,800
Speaker 1: he's succeeded by a fellow leftist just basically being able

2263
02:15:10,800 --> 02:15:14,040
Speaker 1: to run on anti Americanism. And I'd say that is,

2264
02:15:14,560 --> 02:15:16,920
Speaker 1: you know, in the same way running as anti Trump

2265
02:15:16,960 --> 02:15:20,960
Speaker 1: is so good inside certain primaries in America, and running

2266
02:15:21,000 --> 02:15:24,200
Speaker 1: as pro Trump is really helpful in certain primaries in America.

2267
02:15:24,640 --> 02:15:29,880
Speaker 1: Being an anti American running against anti americanism or American imperialism,

2268
02:15:30,720 --> 02:15:36,680
Speaker 1: it's a very powerful message to run on in Latin America,

2269
02:15:37,480 --> 02:15:42,400
Speaker 1: in parts of Asia, in parts of Europe, so certainly

2270
02:15:42,440 --> 02:15:45,040
Speaker 1: in Africa. So that is something that I fear is

2271
02:15:45,080 --> 02:15:48,760
Speaker 1: that this stuff boomerangs. I mean, look at Lula's ratings

2272
02:15:48,800 --> 02:15:53,560
Speaker 1: in Brazil. Right when Trump targeted Lula Lula, who was

2273
02:15:53,600 --> 02:15:58,960
Speaker 1: not being wasn't being overly embraced by the Brazilian population.

2274
02:16:00,680 --> 02:16:03,640
Speaker 1: It's kind of a mediocre economy. Things weren't going great.

2275
02:16:04,480 --> 02:16:09,000
Speaker 1: Suddenly saw his popularity surge after Trump attacked him over

2276
02:16:09,040 --> 02:16:12,800
Speaker 1: the Bolsonaro decision and just did the arbitrary tariffs on Brazil.

2277
02:16:13,560 --> 02:16:16,800
Speaker 1: It actually strengthened him politically and probably is going to

2278
02:16:16,840 --> 02:16:19,120
Speaker 1: be why he gets re elected later this year. Brazil

2279
02:16:19,160 --> 02:16:23,240
Speaker 1: also wholes election this year. So that's what I fear

2280
02:16:23,680 --> 02:16:35,560
Speaker 1: is what anti Americanism brings brings to that. I'm going

2281
02:16:35,600 --> 02:16:38,600
Speaker 1: a little lengthier than I want, but hey, it's football time,

2282
02:16:40,120 --> 02:16:44,080
Speaker 1: and I hope now you realize that no matter who

2283
02:16:44,120 --> 02:16:47,920
Speaker 1: you listen to about college football, Kirk Herbstreet, Paul Finebaumb,

2284
02:16:48,040 --> 02:16:51,480
Speaker 1: Josh Pate, Clay Travis, you name it, there is only

2285
02:16:51,520 --> 02:16:53,840
Speaker 1: one person that told you the University of Miami was

2286
02:16:53,879 --> 02:16:57,680
Speaker 1: probably the best team in football. Now we have one

2287
02:16:57,720 --> 02:17:01,720
Speaker 1: more chance to prove it January nineteen. I can't wait.

2288
02:17:01,959 --> 02:17:05,600
Speaker 1: I'll be there. So first I'm going to paint you

2289
02:17:06,440 --> 02:17:09,800
Speaker 1: the picture, the dream scenario in my head and how

2290
02:17:09,840 --> 02:17:16,039
Speaker 1: I have envisioned all of this. The last time Miami

2291
02:17:16,480 --> 02:17:21,800
Speaker 1: played for a national title on its home field, and

2292
02:17:21,840 --> 02:17:25,840
Speaker 1: we're an underdog. Was actually the very first time Miami

2293
02:17:25,840 --> 02:17:29,560
Speaker 1: played for a national title on its home field. The

2294
02:17:29,640 --> 02:17:34,080
Speaker 1: team they played was this juggernaut from the Midwest. The

2295
02:17:34,160 --> 02:17:40,760
Speaker 1: team colors were red and white. They were undefeated. They

2296
02:17:40,879 --> 02:17:44,160
Speaker 1: looked like a proceed They just never made mistakes. They

2297
02:17:44,160 --> 02:17:50,840
Speaker 1: were barreling through everybody. But they'd never faced the speed

2298
02:17:51,560 --> 02:17:55,160
Speaker 1: of the University of Miami. That team, of course, was

2299
02:17:55,200 --> 02:18:00,200
Speaker 1: the Nebraska corn Huskers. Go big red right now, imy,

2300
02:18:00,200 --> 02:18:04,440
Speaker 1: he didn't blow out Nebraska. Miami eventually would blow Miami

2301
02:18:04,440 --> 02:18:07,800
Speaker 1: in the Florida States. Eventually, Miami and the style of

2302
02:18:07,840 --> 02:18:11,960
Speaker 1: play Miami introduced to college football in nineteen eighty three

2303
02:18:12,200 --> 02:18:16,400
Speaker 1: would become the norm, and more schools would emulate how

2304
02:18:16,440 --> 02:18:19,560
Speaker 1: Miami built its program in order to go forward. So

2305
02:18:19,680 --> 02:18:23,880
Speaker 1: here we are again, Miami. It's been a long time coming,

2306
02:18:24,520 --> 02:18:29,199
Speaker 1: twenty three years, and we're the underdog, and in fact,

2307
02:18:29,400 --> 02:18:33,240
Speaker 1: we're an irrational underdog. People are recency biased. Look forget.

2308
02:18:34,400 --> 02:18:38,600
Speaker 1: You know, Miami may not win this game. I think

2309
02:18:38,600 --> 02:18:41,560
Speaker 1: it's a will. I will lay out the scenario of

2310
02:18:41,600 --> 02:18:44,960
Speaker 1: how they don't win this game. But I know one thing,

2311
02:18:45,040 --> 02:18:47,320
Speaker 1: they ain't getting blown out. Miami can't get blown out

2312
02:18:47,360 --> 02:18:50,439
Speaker 1: by anybody. Miami doesn't get blown out, not unto Mario Crystobal.

2313
02:18:52,200 --> 02:18:54,520
Speaker 1: You know, he MUCKs up a game when he doesn't

2314
02:18:54,560 --> 02:18:57,600
Speaker 1: have the talent to keep up with somebody, and sometimes

2315
02:18:57,640 --> 02:18:59,280
Speaker 1: he can muck up a game when we do have

2316
02:18:59,320 --> 02:19:02,360
Speaker 1: the talent to keep up with somebody. But I will

2317
02:19:02,360 --> 02:19:06,280
Speaker 1: promise you this, Indiana hasn't faced the physicality that is Miami,

2318
02:19:08,480 --> 02:19:12,000
Speaker 1: and maybe nobody believed it at the start of this

2319
02:19:12,080 --> 02:19:18,120
Speaker 1: playoff because of these preconceived notions about the ACC. Ask

2320
02:19:18,200 --> 02:19:23,600
Speaker 1: Ohio State, Ask the two SEC teams. My favorite stat,

2321
02:19:23,600 --> 02:19:26,119
Speaker 1: by the way, Miami has won more games against SEC

2322
02:19:26,160 --> 02:19:30,720
Speaker 1: opponents in twenty twenty five three than the University of

2323
02:19:30,760 --> 02:19:34,960
Speaker 1: Florida did in the SEC, who only had two. We

2324
02:19:35,000 --> 02:19:39,320
Speaker 1: loved little. We love little stats like that. So I am.

2325
02:19:39,760 --> 02:19:42,640
Speaker 1: I couldn't be more thrilled that Indiana is the heavy favorite,

2326
02:19:42,720 --> 02:19:46,160
Speaker 1: that Miami is being discounted again, although it is interesting

2327
02:19:46,200 --> 02:19:49,480
Speaker 1: that Miami is at least less of an underdog against

2328
02:19:49,520 --> 02:19:53,120
Speaker 1: Indiana than they were against Ohio State. I know I

2329
02:19:53,160 --> 02:19:55,720
Speaker 1: look at this through reading excuse me, through orange and

2330
02:19:55,720 --> 02:19:57,000
Speaker 1: green glasses.

2331
02:19:58,040 --> 02:19:58,080
Speaker 2: On.

2332
02:20:01,800 --> 02:20:06,360
Speaker 1: But when I look, you know there's there's let's go,

2333
02:20:06,480 --> 02:20:08,240
Speaker 1: let's look at this backwards. I'm gonna give you the

2334
02:20:08,240 --> 02:20:10,119
Speaker 1: result and then you and then I think we will

2335
02:20:10,120 --> 02:20:13,080
Speaker 1: start filling in the blanks. Miami wins this game, and

2336
02:20:13,120 --> 02:20:14,959
Speaker 1: it looks a lot like the Ohio State game, which

2337
02:20:15,000 --> 02:20:16,720
Speaker 1: I think if Miami wins this game, it has to

2338
02:20:16,720 --> 02:20:19,120
Speaker 1: look a lot like the Ohia State game. You're looking

2339
02:20:19,160 --> 02:20:21,800
Speaker 1: at something like twenty four to seventeen, twenty four to

2340
02:20:21,840 --> 02:20:26,080
Speaker 1: twenty one, you know that best twenty four fourteen. But

2341
02:20:26,160 --> 02:20:28,800
Speaker 1: really it's a one score game. Miami obviously tacked on

2342
02:20:28,840 --> 02:20:30,520
Speaker 1: a quick late score that put it out of reach,

2343
02:20:31,400 --> 02:20:34,240
Speaker 1: but it's a one score game, and it's physical, and

2344
02:20:34,280 --> 02:20:41,600
Speaker 1: it's it's messy, it's tough, all those things. Miami also

2345
02:20:41,600 --> 02:20:44,560
Speaker 1: played pretty mistake free in that. But if you look

2346
02:20:44,600 --> 02:20:47,280
Speaker 1: at Indiana, if Miami wins the game, then we will

2347
02:20:47,280 --> 02:20:50,760
Speaker 1: say this Indiana actually never faith that the that the

2348
02:20:50,800 --> 02:20:55,440
Speaker 1: only you know, the two games they almost lost. Two

2349
02:20:55,480 --> 02:20:57,560
Speaker 1: of the three games they almost lost Ohio State, Iowa,

2350
02:20:58,200 --> 02:21:01,760
Speaker 1: and Penn State. The Ohio State and Iowa games were

2351
02:21:01,800 --> 02:21:05,720
Speaker 1: the ones where they were physically beaten up and they

2352
02:21:05,720 --> 02:21:08,680
Speaker 1: had to essentially escape. Now they may escape a win

2353
02:21:08,760 --> 02:21:12,240
Speaker 1: against Miami This is a very well coached team. They

2354
02:21:12,240 --> 02:21:16,000
Speaker 1: don't make mistakes. Miami has thrived on making other teams

2355
02:21:16,080 --> 02:21:19,200
Speaker 1: make mistakes. You know, when you look at the Old

2356
02:21:19,240 --> 02:21:21,840
Speaker 1: Miss game, it's astonishing Miami won, but it shows you

2357
02:21:21,920 --> 02:21:24,400
Speaker 1: how much better Miami really was. And Old Miss Miami

2358
02:21:24,480 --> 02:21:26,320
Speaker 1: made a slew of mistakes and still won the game.

2359
02:21:26,920 --> 02:21:30,000
Speaker 1: Miami dropped three interceptions and still won the game. Right,

2360
02:21:30,240 --> 02:21:33,600
Speaker 1: Miami committed some penalties that shouldn't They shouldn't have committed

2361
02:21:33,600 --> 02:21:35,720
Speaker 1: that they didn't commit against Ohio State, still won the game.

2362
02:21:35,959 --> 02:21:38,400
Speaker 1: But Ole Miss had no business being there. God bless them.

2363
02:21:38,600 --> 02:21:40,680
Speaker 1: They had a great they had. They had, they had

2364
02:21:40,680 --> 02:21:42,200
Speaker 1: the one of the best players on the field in

2365
02:21:42,200 --> 02:21:45,960
Speaker 1: Trinidad Chambliss. But I think get's clear that they were.

2366
02:21:46,160 --> 02:21:48,320
Speaker 1: There is a small gap. It's not a big gap

2367
02:21:48,320 --> 02:21:56,360
Speaker 1: between Miami and Old Miss, but there's a gap. Miami

2368
02:21:56,400 --> 02:22:00,720
Speaker 1: has to play a nearly flawless game, and which they

2369
02:22:00,760 --> 02:22:02,880
Speaker 1: did against Ohio State. I think they only had one

2370
02:22:02,920 --> 02:22:10,480
Speaker 1: accepted penalty. That's a big deal. The other aspect to this,

2371
02:22:12,640 --> 02:22:19,879
Speaker 1: and that sort of has me is sort of okay.

2372
02:22:22,400 --> 02:22:26,840
Speaker 1: Has Indiana actually faced tough competition in the playoff versus

2373
02:22:26,879 --> 02:22:30,720
Speaker 1: what Miami's faced. Indiana faced Alabama, a team that now

2374
02:22:30,920 --> 02:22:34,520
Speaker 1: in eindsight, never belonged in Oregon, a team that never

2375
02:22:34,640 --> 02:22:38,080
Speaker 1: physically belonged. Look, they had the record. I'm not saying

2376
02:22:38,120 --> 02:22:39,800
Speaker 1: they shouldn't have been in the playoff eleven to one.

2377
02:22:39,840 --> 02:22:42,280
Speaker 1: They deserve to be in the playoff, but who did

2378
02:22:42,280 --> 02:22:44,600
Speaker 1: they be? And they should have lost to Iowa and

2379
02:22:44,680 --> 02:22:47,280
Speaker 1: they almost lost to Iowa. The toughest team they played.

2380
02:22:47,600 --> 02:22:50,200
Speaker 1: They didn't play Ohio State. They almost lost to Penn State,

2381
02:22:50,240 --> 02:22:52,119
Speaker 1: which turned out not to be that impressive of win.

2382
02:22:52,440 --> 02:22:55,560
Speaker 1: And of course, despite getting a pick six, they still

2383
02:22:55,560 --> 02:22:58,600
Speaker 1: lost by double digits to Indiana the first time, and

2384
02:22:58,640 --> 02:23:02,480
Speaker 1: they lost that game at home. So you know, as

2385
02:23:02,520 --> 02:23:05,119
Speaker 1: Indiana played anybody, and you know, again, I go back

2386
02:23:05,160 --> 02:23:07,640
Speaker 1: to the toughest team Indiana's played this year as Ohio State,

2387
02:23:08,000 --> 02:23:09,560
Speaker 1: a team we beat by ted that we have one

2388
02:23:09,560 --> 02:23:11,640
Speaker 1: common opponent team we beat by ten points, a team

2389
02:23:11,680 --> 02:23:16,800
Speaker 1: they beat by three points. So again, I just I

2390
02:23:17,200 --> 02:23:20,000
Speaker 1: say all that to say there's no the point spread

2391
02:23:20,000 --> 02:23:23,480
Speaker 1: here is absurd, But it doesn't matter. It's not about

2392
02:23:23,480 --> 02:23:25,200
Speaker 1: what the point spread should be. It's what gets you

2393
02:23:25,280 --> 02:23:27,920
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty money. And guess what there's a real

2394
02:23:27,959 --> 02:23:31,400
Speaker 1: opportunity here for smarter college football fans if you really

2395
02:23:31,440 --> 02:23:35,160
Speaker 1: want to dabble in gambling, because I think the numbers,

2396
02:23:35,480 --> 02:23:39,960
Speaker 1: eye test, everything shows Indiana shouldn't be a favorite like that.

2397
02:23:40,040 --> 02:23:41,880
Speaker 1: So don't be surprised if you see all the quote

2398
02:23:41,959 --> 02:23:44,520
Speaker 1: unquote sharp start taking Miami. Doesn't mean Miami's going to

2399
02:23:44,560 --> 02:23:49,480
Speaker 1: win this game, but it means I think that we

2400
02:23:49,520 --> 02:23:52,800
Speaker 1: have so we'll see. Look, I am hoping that Miami

2401
02:23:52,920 --> 02:23:58,360
Speaker 1: is not a supporting cast member in the in the

2402
02:23:58,400 --> 02:24:05,160
Speaker 1: Fernando Mendoza Hallmark of the Week movie and the whole

2403
02:24:05,200 --> 02:24:07,800
Speaker 1: He's coming home and he went to the same high

2404
02:24:07,800 --> 02:24:11,520
Speaker 1: school as Mario crystal Ball. I'm very curious how the

2405
02:24:11,560 --> 02:24:15,760
Speaker 1: Columbus High community is handling this. You know, are they

2406
02:24:16,200 --> 02:24:19,040
Speaker 1: are the houses divided about Mario? This is you know,

2407
02:24:19,160 --> 02:24:22,960
Speaker 1: Christopher Columbus High School is a hugely sort of almost

2408
02:24:23,000 --> 02:24:28,440
Speaker 1: symbolically important institution in the Cuban community in Miami. So

2409
02:24:28,760 --> 02:24:31,440
Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting to see see if there's

2410
02:24:31,440 --> 02:24:35,320
Speaker 1: a there's a real divide there or not. But look,

2411
02:24:35,640 --> 02:24:38,080
Speaker 1: regardless of what happens, this has been a very successful

2412
02:24:38,080 --> 02:24:43,280
Speaker 1: season for Miami. I think we now know this expanded playoff.

2413
02:24:43,560 --> 02:24:46,760
Speaker 1: Whoever wins the title, you can't say they didn't have

2414
02:24:46,800 --> 02:24:50,039
Speaker 1: to go through a juggernaut, right. If Miami wins the title,

2415
02:24:50,040 --> 02:24:51,560
Speaker 1: they will have had to have gone eight to zero

2416
02:24:51,560 --> 02:24:55,240
Speaker 1: against ranked teams. They will have beaten number one, number two,

2417
02:24:55,720 --> 02:24:58,440
Speaker 1: number six, number seven, and if you want to throw

2418
02:24:58,520 --> 02:25:01,160
Speaker 1: a Notre Dame in there also, so basically more than

2419
02:25:01,200 --> 02:25:02,920
Speaker 1: half of the top ten they would have had to

2420
02:25:03,000 --> 02:25:05,400
Speaker 1: defeat in order to lay claim to a national title.

2421
02:25:06,080 --> 02:25:08,480
Speaker 1: If that is not what we all envisioned what a

2422
02:25:08,520 --> 02:25:12,760
Speaker 1: playoff should do. You know, look, there's a lot of

2423
02:25:12,840 --> 02:25:15,520
Speaker 1: things we've got to fix with this sport. Obviously, I

2424
02:25:15,560 --> 02:25:17,560
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it at the moment because my

2425
02:25:17,600 --> 02:25:19,879
Speaker 1: team is succeeding at the rules that they currently are,

2426
02:25:20,560 --> 02:25:25,320
Speaker 1: but ultimately this is serving its purpose nobody. Yes, Miami's

2427
02:25:25,320 --> 02:25:27,840
Speaker 1: playing on its home field now, but look at the

2428
02:25:27,920 --> 02:25:29,879
Speaker 1: juggernaut they had to go through in order to even

2429
02:25:29,920 --> 02:25:32,359
Speaker 1: get there, and this was kind of a random happenstance.

2430
02:25:32,720 --> 02:25:34,600
Speaker 1: I am a little nervous that Indiana might have more

2431
02:25:34,640 --> 02:25:36,720
Speaker 1: fans at that game than Miami, because Indiana's got a

2432
02:25:36,840 --> 02:25:39,840
Speaker 1: much larger fan base and they're they're doing you, They're

2433
02:25:39,840 --> 02:25:43,520
Speaker 1: going to spend Yolo money. I'm not sure Miami fans

2434
02:25:43,560 --> 02:25:47,680
Speaker 1: are going to spend Yolo money, okay, because I think

2435
02:25:48,320 --> 02:25:51,440
Speaker 1: we Miami fans are cocky enough to assume that we're

2436
02:25:51,480 --> 02:25:54,120
Speaker 1: just we're back and this is going to you know,

2437
02:25:54,160 --> 02:25:57,360
Speaker 1: we're going to be in this position sooner rather than later. Now.

2438
02:25:57,959 --> 02:26:00,400
Speaker 1: I hope we have a mindset the win it now,

2439
02:26:00,440 --> 02:26:01,840
Speaker 1: because you never know when you're going to be this

2440
02:26:01,879 --> 02:26:07,360
Speaker 1: close again. But there a few other things. Look, I've

2441
02:26:07,360 --> 02:26:11,000
Speaker 1: given Chanon Dawson a lot of grief. I nitpick, I

2442
02:26:11,000 --> 02:26:13,480
Speaker 1: pick a lot of knits at his play calling. It's

2443
02:26:13,520 --> 02:26:16,440
Speaker 1: been very good. It was you know, I think we

2444
02:26:16,480 --> 02:26:19,240
Speaker 1: all agreed. We knew that he had to open things up.

2445
02:26:19,520 --> 02:26:21,920
Speaker 1: If Miami was there was gonna if Mimi was gonna

2446
02:26:21,920 --> 02:26:23,560
Speaker 1: win a national title, Carson Beck was going to have

2447
02:26:23,600 --> 02:26:25,680
Speaker 1: to win one of the games. Well, Carson Beck just

2448
02:26:25,720 --> 02:26:28,880
Speaker 1: won a game, and there were some questions could he

2449
02:26:28,959 --> 02:26:30,640
Speaker 1: do it? Mario Chris Wall was going to have to

2450
02:26:30,640 --> 02:26:32,400
Speaker 1: manage the clockwile I think he managed the clock as

2451
02:26:32,400 --> 02:26:35,280
Speaker 1: well as he could. Down there, I think somebody was saying, oh,

2452
02:26:35,280 --> 02:26:37,720
Speaker 1: you shouldn't left sixteen seconds on. You had to score

2453
02:26:37,720 --> 02:26:41,160
Speaker 1: the touchdown. Okay, you know I don't think Carson Beck,

2454
02:26:41,400 --> 02:26:43,320
Speaker 1: you know, just taking a knee at the half inch

2455
02:26:43,400 --> 02:26:46,200
Speaker 1: yard line before I would have gone bonkers. You get

2456
02:26:46,200 --> 02:26:49,920
Speaker 1: the touchdown at that point, sixteen seconds was sixteen seconds.

2457
02:26:51,360 --> 02:26:53,520
Speaker 1: And if you're wondering about the pass interference, for those

2458
02:26:53,560 --> 02:26:55,680
Speaker 1: of us that have had the nightmare of pass interferences

2459
02:26:55,680 --> 02:26:58,000
Speaker 1: at the Fiesta Bowl, which by the way, that's a

2460
02:26:58,080 --> 02:27:00,160
Speaker 1: huge monkey off of Miami's back. We had been for

2461
02:27:00,200 --> 02:27:02,440
Speaker 1: the state of Arizona and we finally won a game

2462
02:27:02,440 --> 02:27:04,800
Speaker 1: in the state of Arizona. It's our first ever Fiesta

2463
02:27:04,800 --> 02:27:08,199
Speaker 1: Bol victory. And the irony that there's an uncalled pass

2464
02:27:08,200 --> 02:27:10,320
Speaker 1: interference penalty. Here's why I don't think it's that big

2465
02:27:10,320 --> 02:27:13,160
Speaker 1: of video. One, the ball was uncatchable. We don't talk

2466
02:27:13,280 --> 02:27:15,400
Speaker 1: enough about that. There was not a catchable ball. I

2467
02:27:15,400 --> 02:27:20,480
Speaker 1: don't care. Two, I think if the if if that

2468
02:27:20,520 --> 02:27:22,080
Speaker 1: had been a ten yard pass and not a thirty

2469
02:27:22,120 --> 02:27:24,080
Speaker 1: yard pass, it would have they would have flgged it

2470
02:27:24,120 --> 02:27:27,480
Speaker 1: for past interference. I think officials know that that last play,

2471
02:27:27,600 --> 02:27:30,800
Speaker 1: it's a close call, but guess what, so what if

2472
02:27:31,080 --> 02:27:34,240
Speaker 1: they had another shot at it, they'd have gotten one

2473
02:27:34,240 --> 02:27:38,680
Speaker 1: more shot from the twenty. Okay, I'm pretty confident. You know,

2474
02:27:38,879 --> 02:27:40,840
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have wanted to see one more play, don't

2475
02:27:40,840 --> 02:27:44,440
Speaker 1: get me wrong. And the crazy ole miss voodoo that

2476
02:27:44,480 --> 02:27:47,120
Speaker 1: may have been, they may have pulled off there, but

2477
02:27:49,080 --> 02:27:51,200
Speaker 1: I don't think you could say that's why Miami won

2478
02:27:51,240 --> 02:27:54,959
Speaker 1: the game. It's not like the past interference heard around

2479
02:27:54,959 --> 02:27:57,320
Speaker 1: the world back in January of two thousand and three

2480
02:27:58,080 --> 02:28:04,640
Speaker 1: when it did decide the national championship. And I think

2481
02:28:04,680 --> 02:28:08,119
Speaker 1: all of us agree, let the players decide these things.

2482
02:28:08,280 --> 02:28:12,440
Speaker 1: You don't want the refs having that much impact. One

2483
02:28:12,480 --> 02:28:14,600
Speaker 1: other thing that I hope Miami is very careful of.

2484
02:28:15,320 --> 02:28:18,120
Speaker 1: I feel like in our attempt to hit as hard

2485
02:28:18,160 --> 02:28:20,480
Speaker 1: as possible, and we definitely hit harder than most teams,

2486
02:28:22,040 --> 02:28:25,840
Speaker 1: we're walking the line on late hits. We got flagged

2487
02:28:25,959 --> 02:28:28,680
Speaker 1: correctly on a couple of late hits. We've not been

2488
02:28:28,680 --> 02:28:31,320
Speaker 1: flagged for a couple that I worry about. We need

2489
02:28:31,320 --> 02:28:34,440
Speaker 1: to be careful here. You don't want to stop aggressiveness,

2490
02:28:34,800 --> 02:28:39,320
Speaker 1: but you got to do it within reason, and that's

2491
02:28:39,360 --> 02:28:42,720
Speaker 1: the There's a fine line between toughness and undisciplined, and

2492
02:28:42,760 --> 02:28:45,720
Speaker 1: they've more They've been tough and disciplined just about all

2493
02:28:45,800 --> 02:28:48,000
Speaker 1: year long. There was a few moments in that Old

2494
02:28:48,000 --> 02:28:51,040
Speaker 1: Miss game I was concerned about I'm less concerned about

2495
02:28:51,080 --> 02:28:53,279
Speaker 1: it with Indiana. I don't think Indiana is a trust talker,

2496
02:28:53,760 --> 02:28:55,480
Speaker 1: I think, and I think this is going to be

2497
02:28:55,520 --> 02:28:57,520
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a physically brutal game.

2498
02:28:57,840 --> 02:29:00,280
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be shockingly low scoring. Actually

2499
02:29:00,320 --> 02:29:03,080
Speaker 1: some people won't be shocked about it. And I do

2500
02:29:03,120 --> 02:29:04,200
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a bit of a war

2501
02:29:04,200 --> 02:29:06,720
Speaker 1: of attrition. I think when you're on your sixteenth game,

2502
02:29:06,760 --> 02:29:12,280
Speaker 1: as both teams are going to be, it is it

2503
02:29:12,480 --> 02:29:15,680
Speaker 1: is a You're going to have more players want and

2504
02:29:15,720 --> 02:29:20,640
Speaker 1: I think it's I think this is just a reality.

2505
02:29:21,160 --> 02:29:23,680
Speaker 1: One of the Indian or Miami is going to lose

2506
02:29:23,680 --> 02:29:25,720
Speaker 1: this game because a key player is going to get hurt.

2507
02:29:26,760 --> 02:29:30,359
Speaker 1: Because when you're doing this for sixteen games, that likelihood

2508
02:29:30,440 --> 02:29:33,760
Speaker 1: only gets higher, and especially as the stakes get higher.

2509
02:29:34,160 --> 02:29:38,280
Speaker 1: I do think a trie you know, how physically ready

2510
02:29:38,280 --> 02:29:41,199
Speaker 1: are they for this game? How hurt are both teams.

2511
02:29:41,680 --> 02:29:45,640
Speaker 1: My guess is that's one thing that Indiana has over Miami,

2512
02:29:45,680 --> 02:29:48,280
Speaker 1: which is they haven't had to play They've had two

2513
02:29:48,280 --> 02:29:50,840
Speaker 1: games where they got to basically take their foot off

2514
02:29:50,840 --> 02:29:53,560
Speaker 1: the gas in the second half Miami hasn't been able

2515
02:29:53,600 --> 02:29:57,440
Speaker 1: to do that. Does that wear and tear show up

2516
02:29:57,440 --> 02:30:00,200
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter of a very close game. These

2517
02:30:00,200 --> 02:30:02,000
Speaker 1: are some of the things that I worry about there.

2518
02:30:02,680 --> 02:30:08,080
Speaker 1: As with my Packers, I have reluctantly concluded that Leafloor's

2519
02:30:08,080 --> 02:30:12,600
Speaker 1: got to go there. There's an interesting stat out there.

2520
02:30:13,000 --> 02:30:16,760
Speaker 1: Eighty five percent of Super Bowl winning coaches won the

2521
02:30:16,800 --> 02:30:18,760
Speaker 1: Super Bowl within the first six years of being the

2522
02:30:18,800 --> 02:30:23,640
Speaker 1: head coach, have said franchise. Laflour just finished his seventh year,

2523
02:30:24,480 --> 02:30:27,520
Speaker 1: still hasn't been to a super Bowl. His record is

2524
02:30:27,560 --> 02:30:30,680
Speaker 1: great the last three years, though the trend line is

2525
02:30:30,720 --> 02:30:34,680
Speaker 1: not in the good right direction. They just lose too

2526
02:30:34,720 --> 02:30:37,840
Speaker 1: many games, just like they lost that Bears game. Hot start,

2527
02:30:37,920 --> 02:30:42,400
Speaker 1: the scripted portion, the stuff they game plan does great,

2528
02:30:43,080 --> 02:30:48,640
Speaker 1: halftime comes, the other team adjusts, but Green Bay isn't ready.

2529
02:30:49,400 --> 02:30:53,400
Speaker 1: And every game, I mean that script that Green Bay

2530
02:30:53,480 --> 02:30:58,400
Speaker 1: game happened. Big lead, looks like it's over. Suddenly by

2531
02:30:58,440 --> 02:31:00,800
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter the other team has a shot at winning.

2532
02:31:06,400 --> 02:31:08,600
Speaker 1: I think it's it's you know, just like it was

2533
02:31:08,680 --> 02:31:14,879
Speaker 1: time with Harbaugh in Baltimore. Sometimes it's just time. This

2534
02:31:14,920 --> 02:31:17,119
Speaker 1: one feels like it's time. Look, I'd love to see

2535
02:31:17,200 --> 02:31:20,240
Speaker 1: Laflour with my with with with KM Moore down in

2536
02:31:20,280 --> 02:31:24,760
Speaker 1: Tennessee and and help Lafloor. And I think Laflour is

2537
02:31:24,800 --> 02:31:29,320
Speaker 1: a great quarterback tutor. He got two more MVP seasons

2538
02:31:29,360 --> 02:31:33,760
Speaker 1: for for uh Aaron Rodgers. He turned Jordan Love into

2539
02:31:33,760 --> 02:31:37,200
Speaker 1: an elite quarterback. So I I I think there's it's

2540
02:31:37,200 --> 02:31:40,440
Speaker 1: a tremendous coach, but he is stuck with a bad

2541
02:31:40,480 --> 02:31:43,360
Speaker 1: special teams coach for too long. He has made some

2542
02:31:43,560 --> 02:31:47,480
Speaker 1: questionable decisions. Halfley's been a great hire at d C,

2543
02:31:47,680 --> 02:31:49,520
Speaker 1: but he's stuck with the old d C too long.

2544
02:31:50,240 --> 02:31:52,440
Speaker 1: So I you know, I think that when you start

2545
02:31:52,480 --> 02:31:54,760
Speaker 1: to evaluate his work and then you start to realize

2546
02:31:55,959 --> 02:31:58,400
Speaker 1: that first stat I don't think that's an accident.

2547
02:31:58,600 --> 02:31:58,760
Speaker 2: Right.

2548
02:31:59,080 --> 02:32:01,800
Speaker 1: If you don't make at work in that first five

2549
02:32:01,879 --> 02:32:06,360
Speaker 1: or six years, it's hard to get there. And all

2550
02:32:06,400 --> 02:32:09,000
Speaker 1: the ingredients were there. Yes, we had injuries, but you

2551
02:32:09,040 --> 02:32:12,360
Speaker 1: have injuries every year. How many you know the best

2552
02:32:12,400 --> 02:32:15,200
Speaker 1: head coach has overcome them. He's a good head coach,

2553
02:32:17,040 --> 02:32:18,959
Speaker 1: but he's not been great because a great head coach

2554
02:32:19,000 --> 02:32:20,920
Speaker 1: would already have had Green Bay in at least one

2555
02:32:21,000 --> 02:32:24,720
Speaker 1: Super Bowl over the last seven years. So I think

2556
02:32:24,720 --> 02:32:27,960
Speaker 1: he's gone. I think that's the direction they go. They

2557
02:32:28,000 --> 02:32:31,400
Speaker 1: have a new president and Ed Policy, son of Carmen Policy,

2558
02:32:31,440 --> 02:32:34,000
Speaker 1: who ran the forty nine ers for years and at

2559
02:32:34,000 --> 02:32:36,480
Speaker 1: the end of their heyday, their first heyday back in

2560
02:32:36,480 --> 02:32:43,160
Speaker 1: the eighties and nineties. I'm intrigued by John Harball. I

2561
02:32:43,200 --> 02:32:46,240
Speaker 1: think bringing in you know he's going to want to go.

2562
02:32:46,520 --> 02:32:48,760
Speaker 1: And if you look at it, if green Bay does open,

2563
02:32:48,800 --> 02:32:50,640
Speaker 1: then suddenly the two best jobs on the board are

2564
02:32:50,640 --> 02:32:52,880
Speaker 1: green Bay in Baltimore, we know Harbaugh and going back

2565
02:32:52,920 --> 02:32:58,959
Speaker 1: to Baltimore. You know, Harball with Mike mcdanielis play caller.

2566
02:33:00,440 --> 02:33:02,720
Speaker 1: I just throw out a couple of ideas. We'll see

2567
02:33:02,720 --> 02:33:08,560
Speaker 1: what sticks. All Right, I've gone on too long. I'm

2568
02:33:08,600 --> 02:33:11,000
Speaker 1: not gonna say. I'm not gonna violate Larry David's rule.

2569
02:33:11,280 --> 02:33:14,360
Speaker 1: It's now January twelfth. It's no longer a new year.

2570
02:33:14,879 --> 02:33:17,680
Speaker 1: But welcome, unfortunately, to the year that we're living dangerously

2571
02:33:18,200 --> 02:33:22,120
Speaker 1: and let's hope it doesn't end as terribly as many

2572
02:33:22,120 --> 02:33:25,120
Speaker 1: of us fear this year could play out. So with that,

2573
02:33:26,080 --> 02:33:27,760
Speaker 1: I will see you forty eight hours when I unpload

2574
02:33:27,760 --> 02:33:28,040
Speaker 1: it down.