WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Matt Miskin & Nick Sargen

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea on a really interesting Monday, The

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<v Speaker 2>markets can shift on a dime. Literally, we had a

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<v Speaker 2>very solid upfiel and then a set of headlines from

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<v Speaker 2>Iran which really didn't move the market, and then a

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<v Speaker 2>second set of headlines from Iran, and in a moment

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<v Speaker 2>the market was gone with oil up three, four or

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<v Speaker 2>five dollars. That's a vigilance. We need to thank you

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<v Speaker 2>to Alexis Christophers for really driving all of our data

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<v Speaker 2>check coverage and made all that was conversation Matt Miskan

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<v Speaker 2>with Manual Life and John Hancock Investment Management. Matt Michigan

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<v Speaker 2>on the tectonic changes of your tech portfolio right now.

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<v Speaker 3>There's tectonic technology exposure shifts underneath these indices, you know.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you're just there and you're like, all right,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm going to buy the S and P five hundred, Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>you're buying fifty percent technology, maybe you should have a

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<v Speaker 3>plan B. And I know right now you cannot miss

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<v Speaker 3>out on this text trade. If you're not allocated to

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<v Speaker 3>AI right now, you're massively underperforming. And in this industry

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<v Speaker 3>it's all about what have you done for me lately.

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<v Speaker 3>So it is hard, but we are trying to find

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<v Speaker 3>out what is the second best idea, and it's more industrials,

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<v Speaker 3>it's more looking for around the world for opportunities. It's

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<v Speaker 3>moving down in market capitalization. It's trying to find stuff

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<v Speaker 3>that is cheap, and there is stuff that's actually cheap

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<v Speaker 3>outside of the US large gap space.

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<v Speaker 2>Matt Michigan with Emily Rowland, John Hancock. What a joy

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<v Speaker 2>today to have a gentleman in from another time and

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<v Speaker 2>place at Solomon years ago there was John Lipski and

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<v Speaker 2>Nicholas Sergeant. Doctor Sargent came in today with all of

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<v Speaker 2>us work with Lipsky at Stanford before Salomon Brothers, just

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<v Speaker 2>a legend on the street. We talked to about that

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<v Speaker 2>one off from the early nineteen fifties out to about

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen seventy two. Robert Gordon at Northwestern says maybe that

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<v Speaker 2>was a one off. Nicholas Sargeant disagrees.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say it certainly was the golden age in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of high economic growth rates until nineteen seventies.

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<v Speaker 2>It was first across a broad middle class.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, and so what I see that's different today is

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<v Speaker 1>America is I buy into the K shaped economy that

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<v Speaker 1>on one hand, some people are doing incredibly well. Those

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<v Speaker 1>that have enough money to own a home or own stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>what's to be unhappy with. But we got to remember

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<v Speaker 1>that over half the country no one owns any stocks.

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<v Speaker 1>They're the people that are hurting. So, you know, and again,

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<v Speaker 1>why have we overcome these shocks? The simple answer is

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing the biggest capital spending boom in my lifetime

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<v Speaker 1>with the you know, the build out AI infrastructure, so

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<v Speaker 1>actually that's boosting growth. Then you have the debate but

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<v Speaker 1>are there longer term consequences And the answer is yes.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm on technology. I'm still a believer. Technology is

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<v Speaker 1>the wave of the future.

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<v Speaker 2>Nicholas Sergeant, There Were the Global Shocks was a book

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<v Speaker 2>of many years ago. Retired now, but wonderful to get

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<v Speaker 2>his perspective and all of the academics of Stanford that

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<v Speaker 2>he identifies with the middle twentieth century. On podcasts, We're

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<v Speaker 2>at Apple, We're at Spotify. On the YouTube podcast it's

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<v Speaker 2>single best idea