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Speaker 1: All right, well, good to hoops tonight here at the volume.
Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday, everybody, hope ball. You guys are having a
Speaker 1: great day. We are breaking down the Milwaukee Bucks and
Speaker 1: the Indiana Pacers in their first round series today. We're
Speaker 1: going to go through the same format that we have
Speaker 1: been doing for this whole series, which is we're going
Speaker 1: over the season series upfront. Just talk about what happened
Speaker 1: to this regular season. We'll go over their odds to
Speaker 1: win the series. On DraftKings, we'll talk about the Bucks
Speaker 1: on offense, then we'll talk about the Pacers on offense.
Speaker 1: I'll go over my major swing factors in the series,
Speaker 1: and then at the very end, I will give you
Speaker 1: guys my pick. You guys know the job before we
Speaker 1: get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You
Speaker 1: don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't miss show announcement.
Speaker 1: Don't forget about a podcast feed rerevacation your podcast on
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Speaker 1: a rating and a review on that front. We also
Speaker 1: have brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and
Speaker 1: Facebook where Jackson's been doing incredible work this year. Make
Speaker 1: sure you guys follow us there for more content. In
Speaker 1: the last minut least, Kee dropping mailbag questions in the
Speaker 1: YouTube comments so that we can get to them in
Speaker 1: our weekly mail bags throughout the remainder of the season.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So season series Bucks
Speaker 1: one three to one, one in one since the Kyle
Speaker 1: Kuzma trade, the Stars have played in all of the games,
Speaker 1: but important role players have missed games for both teams,
Speaker 1: and in general, regular season results can only take you
Speaker 1: so far. Most famously, last year, we had a series
Speaker 1: where the Suns beat the Wolves four to zho in
Speaker 1: the regular season and then got four owed when they
Speaker 1: went into the postseason. It's not necessarily the end all
Speaker 1: be all in any way, shape or form, or mainly
Speaker 1: just looking at what we can see in terms of
Speaker 1: matchups and different schematic things that teams can do to
Speaker 1: make each other uncomfortable. The odds right now the Pacers
Speaker 1: are a minus one ninety favorite that feels about right
Speaker 1: to me. Under the circumstances with Dame's blood clot issue,
Speaker 1: I think this was more or less a coin flip series.
Speaker 1: With both teams perfectly healthy. The Bucks are learning how
Speaker 1: to play a new style of offense without Dame. The
Speaker 1: Pacers have home court, so putting the Pacers is a
Speaker 1: mild favorite like this at minus one ninety makes some
Speaker 1: sense to me. The Dame injury. Sean Sherania reported yesterday
Speaker 1: that there is optimism that Dame will return before the
Speaker 1: first round. What happens with Dame obviously completely changes the
Speaker 1: way the series looks on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: So there's a great deal of unknown here that we
Speaker 1: have to account for. Just keep that in mind as
Speaker 1: we're looking at this series. All right, let's talk about
Speaker 1: the Bucks on offense again. It totally depends on what
Speaker 1: happens with Dane, but it's at least worth mentioning that
Speaker 1: the Bucks had discovered a new offensive formula without Dame
Speaker 1: that you could argue that they should keep leaning into
Speaker 1: as they head into this series. The Bucks won eight
Speaker 1: consecutive games to end the season to finish with forty
Speaker 1: eight wins, and honestly, forty eight wins is really impressive
Speaker 1: when you factor in the fact that they started two
Speaker 1: to eight the way that they did. Giannis played in
Speaker 1: six of those games, all without Dame. Some good teams
Speaker 1: in there, two wins against Detroit and Minnesota in those games.
Speaker 1: In those six games, the Bucks logged a one to
Speaker 1: thirty five offensive rating. Giannis on the floor, he averaged
Speaker 1: thirty two points, twelve rebounds, and twelve assists in those games.
Speaker 1: On sixty one percent from the field, forty two percent
Speaker 1: from three on two to three point attempts per game,
Speaker 1: and seventy three percent from the line. Let me put
Speaker 1: this bluntly, just so that everyone understands, in this six
Speaker 1: game span, Giannis is playing some of the best basketball
Speaker 1: that any player has ever played ever. He's had double
Speaker 1: figure assists in five of his last six games. He
Speaker 1: had a twenty assist game and it shows on tape.
Speaker 1: It's not fake stats, guys. He's scoring a million points
Speaker 1: and then as the team is loading up on him,
Speaker 1: he's picking them apart with his playmaking. He's like flying
Speaker 1: under the radar somehow, even though he's playing like a
Speaker 1: two way Luca. This is a huge factor in the
Speaker 1: series for a few reasons. First of all, this stretch
Speaker 1: is the best that the Bucks offense has looked in
Speaker 1: the entire your Dame Gianis era. Playing Giannis at point
Speaker 1: and just letting him be what Lebron was in his
Speaker 1: prime is just this point forward that's just bringing the
Speaker 1: ball out to the floor in semi transition and just
Speaker 1: scoring and playmaking out of just basic athleticism based rim pressure.
Speaker 1: That thing is really working. If they bail on it
Speaker 1: and go back to a ton of usage for Dame
Speaker 1: and high ball screens with Dame. I think it would
Speaker 1: be detrimental to the offense. Secondly, Giannis playing at this
Speaker 1: level makes him far and away the best player in
Speaker 1: this series. I like Tyres Salaburton, he's playing really well
Speaker 1: these days, but Giannis is just on an entirely different
Speaker 1: planet right now. So the question is how should Milwaukee
Speaker 1: structure their offense with Dame coming back. I'd still run
Speaker 1: almost everything through Giannis when he's on the floor. If
Speaker 1: you want to run screening action, run inverted screens with Dame,
Speaker 1: screening for Giannis, use Dame as a second side guy,
Speaker 1: meaning having him spot up, and then if the ball
Speaker 1: gets moved over to the other side of the floor
Speaker 1: and the action doesn't create an advantage, then he can
Speaker 1: run that second side action coming back the other way.
Speaker 1: But I'd keep running through Giannis as much as possible.
Speaker 1: Then when Yiannis checks out, Dame can spam his high
Speaker 1: ball screens, which will obviously be more reliable than what
Speaker 1: they've had with him out of the lineup. But with
Speaker 1: Dame off the floor, I've actually really liked some of
Speaker 1: the chemistry that Jannis is building with Kevin Porter Junior.
Speaker 1: I was talking with a Bucks friend of mine. I
Speaker 1: do this with some fans from various fan bases, just
Speaker 1: to try to get a feel for what they think
Speaker 1: when they've been watching the team, like literally night in
Speaker 1: and night out, year after year. And one of the
Speaker 1: things this friend of mine said is that Kevin Porter
Speaker 1: Junior plays a little slower than Dame. Has a tendency
Speaker 1: when he gets to turn the corner in ball screens
Speaker 1: to just go one speed, just downhill, all the force
Speaker 1: in the world. He doesn't do the like let me
Speaker 1: put you in jail thing. He doesn't do the like
Speaker 1: let me methodically come off of the ball screen thing, KPJ.
Speaker 1: A little bit more of that, a little bit slower
Speaker 1: off the ball screen, a little bit more of like,
Speaker 1: let's rescreen and like screen multiple times until the defender
Speaker 1: makes a mistake. As a result, Giannis has been getting
Speaker 1: a lot of like short role opportunities and passes in
Speaker 1: the pocket from his actions with Kevin Porter Junior. So like,
Speaker 1: I kind of like the idea of having Dame run
Speaker 1: his own units and then having these units that have
Speaker 1: Giannis and Kevin Porter Junior in there and then playing
Speaker 1: through Yannis when Dame is on the floor, how will
Speaker 1: the Pacers mass up match up. We're gonna see Pascal
Speaker 1: Siakam on Jianis, We're gonna see Myles Turner on Brook Lopez,
Speaker 1: Andrew Nemhard is going to guard Dame, aaron Ne Smith
Speaker 1: will guard Kyle Kuzma, and we'll see Tyre's Haliburton on
Speaker 1: Torrian Prince. Turrian Prince is theoretically a good option to
Speaker 1: put Tyres Haliburton on. You hedge and recover with Haliburton right,
Speaker 1: The way you beat hedging and recovering is you have
Speaker 1: to slip out of the screen and quickly make yourself
Speaker 1: available for three so that you can catch and shoot.
Speaker 1: Torrian Prince is a little gun shy when he's not
Speaker 1: like wide open, and so theoretically you put Tyres there
Speaker 1: because Toorian's not the type of quick release, confinite shooter
Speaker 1: to beat hedges in those hedge and recover sequences. But
Speaker 1: it's worth mentioning the Toorian's played well in this matchup.
Speaker 1: He's shooting fifty three percent from three against the Pacers
Speaker 1: this year. Defending honest is about building a wall, which
Speaker 1: means it's not about Siakam, It's about Turner and Siakam,
Speaker 1: and so one of the biggest swing factors in this series.
Speaker 1: And I'd argue this is a bigger swing factor than
Speaker 1: any of the swing factors I've talked about in any
Speaker 1: of the series so far. The above the break three
Speaker 1: point shooting of Brook Lopez and Miles Turner is arguably
Speaker 1: going to completely swing the outcome of this series because
Speaker 1: you're gonna need those guys to protect the rim, and
Speaker 1: if their counterpart is nailing above the break threes, they're
Speaker 1: going to have to close out. And if they're going
Speaker 1: to have to close out, it's going to cause a
Speaker 1: lot of problems. If one of those guys has a
Speaker 1: great series shooting the three and the other doesn't, could
Speaker 1: literally swing the outcome of this series. That's how important
Speaker 1: that spacing piece from the BIGS is. So for instance,
Speaker 1: brook Lopez just nailing above the break threes, it's a
Speaker 1: lot of Siakam trying to handle Yannis going downhill without
Speaker 1: backside help, or at least not without backside help that
Speaker 1: has real size, and only size is going to bother
Speaker 1: Yannis when you get around the rim. Something to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on the bucks have been surrounding Yannis with
Speaker 1: a lot of play finishing lately. Seen a lot of
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis, a lot of Gary Trent Junior, a lot
Speaker 1: of aj Green, a lot of these knockdown three point shots,
Speaker 1: and Giannis is generating a lot of really high quality
Speaker 1: three point shots. So for Indie to succeed, the key
Speaker 1: is going to be the quality of their closeouts. They're
Speaker 1: gonna have to build a wall, but they're also gonna
Speaker 1: have to use that speed to get out to Milwaukee shooters.
Speaker 1: Rush them, make them uncomfortable, play them into misses. You're
Speaker 1: not going to cross your fingers and hope those guys miss.
Speaker 1: They're too good at knocking down those shots in order
Speaker 1: for that to go in your favor. Looking at Indiana
Speaker 1: on offense, this type of offense is theoretically one of
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's biggest weaknesses. A guard that can bring Brook Lopez
Speaker 1: up to the level but really play make out of it,
Speaker 1: and just a ton of speed in shooting to capitalize
Speaker 1: on an older, slow footed Milwaukee Bucks team. Right, but
Speaker 1: statistically Milwaukee is held up this year. Indiana has managed
Speaker 1: just a one to twelve offensive rating in the four games. Now,
Speaker 1: some of that is injuries. It's worth mentioning Andrew Nemhard
Speaker 1: and Aaron Neiesmith and their ability to attack closeouts is
Speaker 1: key to the ceiling of this offense. Those guys missed
Speaker 1: games in the regular season this year. But again, as
Speaker 1: I mentioned, it's worth mentioning if in these matchups over
Speaker 1: the course of the last couple of years, Indiana has
Speaker 1: made Milwaukee's defense uncomfortable from time to time. This year
Speaker 1: it hasn't worked. How can INDI's offense break through against
Speaker 1: Milwaukee this year by weaponizing their advantage, which is that
Speaker 1: combination of speed and play finishing with Tyre's house Leburton's
Speaker 1: play making ability. They are the much younger and much
Speaker 1: faster team. They need to run like their life depends
Speaker 1: on it. In this series, get in transition as much
Speaker 1: as possible, creating advantages before Milwaukee can load up their
Speaker 1: defense in the half court, before they can load up
Speaker 1: their size underneath the rim. Then, when they're in the
Speaker 1: half court, playing with the same kind of pace, getting
Speaker 1: the ball from side to side, multiple attacks on the
Speaker 1: same possession, forcing the slow footed Bucks to cover a
Speaker 1: ton of ground in rotation. On film, the action that
Speaker 1: seemed to generate the best advantages was the Haliburton Turner
Speaker 1: pick and roll or pick and pop. I should say
Speaker 1: the Bucks have been doing a lot of switching since
Speaker 1: they got Kyle Kuzma, switching with Yannis Torrian and uh
Speaker 1: and Kyle Kuzma together. So like in those sorts of situations,
Speaker 1: you'll see, you know, Siakam get a mismatch through a
Speaker 1: screening action, but Siakam's not getting like a lot of
Speaker 1: like baked in openings from two on the ball. When
Speaker 1: Siakam gets in the screen, it's a switch. So Siakam's
Speaker 1: going to get some mismatches that he can attack. But
Speaker 1: the actual action they can run that gets the Bucks
Speaker 1: into rotation every time is that pick and pop. They
Speaker 1: are running variations of drop with brook Lopez. They're bringing
Speaker 1: him up to the level they're sitting in further back.
Speaker 1: If Turner pops in that action, he's going to be open,
Speaker 1: and his ability to knock down that three or make
Speaker 1: the next play in the sequence is going to be
Speaker 1: the best pathway for the Pacers to get the Bucks
Speaker 1: into rotation. And then again, the kind of like the
Speaker 1: ceiling raising piece for the Pacers is that close out
Speaker 1: attacking of Aerone Smith and andrel Emhard. Those guys need
Speaker 1: to have good series. They need to knock down threes.
Speaker 1: They need to score slashing off of closeouts in order
Speaker 1: for their offense to have success. Major swing factors in
Speaker 1: the series Giannis going superhuman like he off. If Giannis
Speaker 1: averages a thirty point triple double in this series, I
Speaker 1: think the Bucks will win. If he's closer to the
Speaker 1: player he was two years ago. If he's like thirty two,
Speaker 1: twelve and five, I don't think they have enough. I
Speaker 1: think Giannis is going to be at that level and
Speaker 1: that will reflect in my pick here in just a
Speaker 1: few minutes, the Pick and Pop bigs. I won't get
Speaker 1: any further into it because I mentioned it earlier, but
Speaker 1: the shooting of Brook Lopez and Miles Turner will be
Speaker 1: a massive swing factor in the series. What level is
Speaker 1: Damian Litherard going to be at? We haven't seen Dame
Speaker 1: in the playoffs alongside Giannis yet coming back from an injury.
Speaker 1: Is he going to be in a situation where he's
Speaker 1: already in rhythm or is this rhythm going to be
Speaker 1: kind of out of whack. That's gonna be a huge
Speaker 1: factor in this series and then lastly, Tyres Halliburton's up
Speaker 1: and down. So if you remember last year, he would
Speaker 1: have these weird games where he just wouldn't shoot. And
Speaker 1: I think in a series like this, that's not a
Speaker 1: mistake that Indiana can withstand. They need Tyres Halliburton at
Speaker 1: like twenty points and twelve assists a game in the
Speaker 1: series for them to win. He needs consistent output, consistent
Speaker 1: aggression night tonight. This is going to be my first
Speaker 1: underdog pick of the playoffs. I think the Bucks are
Speaker 1: gonna win this series in six games. I think this
Speaker 1: leap from Giannis is scary. I don't think this roster
Speaker 1: is good enough to win the conference, but I absolutely
Speaker 1: think they can offer enough support for Yiannis to carry
Speaker 1: them to an upset of a second tier contender like
Speaker 1: the Indiana Pacers. I think we've all forgotten how good
Speaker 1: Giannis is, even when he was a lesser version of
Speaker 1: himself in the playoffs three years ago. He almost single
Speaker 1: handedly dispatched the Celtics in twenty twenty two. I also
Speaker 1: think that strong game plan discipline can cause Indiana's offense
Speaker 1: to bog down from time to time. Tyres Saliburn is
Speaker 1: a good score He's not a great score. Pascal Siakam
Speaker 1: is a good scorer. He's not a great score. If
Speaker 1: you do your job, if you stick to the game plan,
Speaker 1: if you are good and sharp on the details, which
Speaker 1: the Bucks have not been stretches this year. But if
Speaker 1: you do that stuff, they can run into a little
Speaker 1: bit of a ceiling on offense. That is where I
Speaker 1: think in the playoffs, with the extra game plan and
Speaker 1: the extra prep, Milwaukee might stand a better chance defensively.
Speaker 1: I also think they found a formula surrounding Yiannis with
Speaker 1: shooting instead of play making talent like Drew Holliday and
Speaker 1: Chris Middleton that is working really, really well. Surrounding him
Speaker 1: with a bunch of dudes that are just dead eye
Speaker 1: catch and shoot players and just giving the ball to
Speaker 1: Honest you couldn't do that in the past. Giannis wasn't
Speaker 1: a good enough I used to talk all the time,
Speaker 1: Giannis was not good enough as a surgical half court
Speaker 1: player to do that. I think he's much closer to
Speaker 1: that level now. I think it's a formula that actually
Speaker 1: works in a way that it didn't work in the past.
Speaker 1: The game play and discipline piece is probably my biggest
Speaker 1: bit of anxiety. Playoff chess matches aren't exactly the strong
Speaker 1: suit of Doc Rivers, and there's a chance that I
Speaker 1: spend this entire series frustrated as hell as he sabotages
Speaker 1: to them on both ends of the floor. But I'm
Speaker 1: placing my faith in Yannis here. I think. I still
Speaker 1: think having the best player in a series when everything
Speaker 1: else is relatively close, I still think that that really matters.
Speaker 1: And I think that Yannis is one of the truly
Speaker 1: special players in NBA history that is capable of getting
Speaker 1: this done. It's picking the bucks in six, putting my
Speaker 1: faith in Yannis. All right, guys, That's all I have
Speaker 1: for today is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for
Speaker 1: supporting me and supporting the show. I'll see you guys
Speaker 1: tonight live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Grizzlies Warriors.
Speaker 1: I'll see you guys then. What so, guys, As always,
Speaker 1: I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight.
Speaker 1: They would actually be really helpful for us if you
Speaker 1: guys would take a second and leave a rating and
Speaker 1: a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us,
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