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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go for the throwing in Joe

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Speaker 2: spect so I'm saying it's a catch touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big banks, all banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabation you want to

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Speaker 2: pack and we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 5: Fan Duel. This is your NFL Week seven Best Bets episode.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen, joined today by three Action

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Speaker 5: Network experts, will be going through their three favorite bets

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Speaker 5: for the upcoming Week seven Sunday Monday slate. As a reminder,

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Speaker 5: you can follow along on the Action app by following

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Speaker 5: our account that has all the picks there Action Network

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Speaker 5: NFL Picks. We are twenty nine, twenty three and two

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Speaker 5: overall through six weeks for the show, fifty four bets,

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Speaker 5: nine bets per week six weeks, and hooray there's the math.

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Speaker 5: Today's crew we have Brandon Anderson joining us per usual,

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Speaker 5: Luke Swayin otherwise known as Vegas Refund to the people,

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Speaker 5: and Joe Gallant is back he brings you the Touchdown

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Speaker 5: Show every Sunday morning during the season.

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Speaker 2: Catch Jill at.

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Speaker 5: Ten thirty am Eastern live on the Action app, Action Network, HQ, Twitter,

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Speaker 5: or you can find him on the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 5: To get the guys set up, here are some reminders

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Speaker 5: for the Week seven slate. Four teams on the buy,

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Speaker 5: some good teams. No Bills, no Rams, no Vikings, no Eagles.

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Speaker 5: Underdogs they continue to roll, so we'll find out if

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Speaker 5: the guys are on dogs again. Underdogs hitting at a

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Speaker 5: fifty eight and a half percent win rate fifty five

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Speaker 5: thirty eight and one against the number. I'm repetitive every

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Speaker 5: week on this, but I got to keep mentioning it.

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Speaker 5: The unders they're doing really well sixty one percent clip.

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Speaker 5: That is the best opening six week.

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Speaker 2: Stretch since nineteen ninety four.

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Speaker 5: So if you're taking unders, yeah, life's too short to

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Speaker 5: bet the under whatever I mean, unders are rolling people.

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Speaker 5: The Atlanta Falcons are the only remaining unbeaten team against

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Speaker 5: the spread. They are six to zero, and every team

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Speaker 5: now has been part of an over total this season.

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Speaker 5: There were a few teams that got there for the

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Speaker 5: first time last week. Okay, with all that being said,

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Speaker 5: we always get started before the picks.

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Speaker 2: We ask each of our guests.

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Speaker 5: To describe the betting car the slate in one sentence,

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Speaker 5: one word.

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Speaker 2: Even Brandon Anderson, you first week seven? What comes to mind?

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Speaker 4: Hey, you mentioned the underdogs. I'm calling that the year

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Speaker 4: of the underdog. If you take just the isolated three

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Speaker 4: and a half to ten point dogs are thirty six

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Speaker 4: and seventeen against the spread, sixty eight percent cover eight.

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Speaker 4: If you are anywhere from a three and a half

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Speaker 4: to a ten point underdog, if you bet those every week,

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Speaker 4: you'd have a winning ATS record all six weeks of

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Speaker 4: the season. And we've got nine games like that this week.

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Speaker 2: Luke, what do you got for Week seven?

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Speaker 1: First week we have some teams coming off of bye,

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Speaker 1: and then also just really the league is a hal

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Speaker 1: just being so down in terms of scoring, to see

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Speaker 1: if it starts to open up or if we're just

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Speaker 1: gonna be dealing with these lower scoring games, which I

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Speaker 1: hope we aren't myself.

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Speaker 5: Okay, Jill, what do you got for Week seven?

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean mine's gonna be pretty similar, but it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be we need touchdowns, like the touchdowns are down

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Speaker 3: across the board. So for example, in twenty twenty there

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Speaker 3: were five hundred and fifty nine touchdowns scored after six weeks.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty one, there were five thirty one. This

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Speaker 3: year four forty nine, nearly a touchdown per game is

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Speaker 3: down across the board. So for somebody like me who

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Speaker 3: bets on touchdown scores, that really puts a dent in

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Speaker 3: my chest. So hoping week seven we start to see

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Speaker 3: a little bit more scoring.

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Speaker 5: Listen up, NFL, Jill needs you more than ever.

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Speaker 4: My mentals, my mentals need a big time.

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Speaker 5: Luke mentioned the bys Detroit, Tennessee, Vegas, Houston, all coming

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Speaker 5: off the bye into week seven. Let's get to our

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Speaker 5: first best bet of the day from Brandon Anderson. I

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Speaker 5: will remind everybody that these guys have not consulted one

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Speaker 5: another before this recording, so there may be an overlap,

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Speaker 5: there may be contradictions. I'm here for it, you should

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Speaker 5: be for it. I want some drama. I want people

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Speaker 5: to get pissed off. It's that time of year. I'm

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Speaker 5: excited for that. Every man for himself here on these

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Speaker 5: best bets. Brandon wanted to start us off.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna start with one of those bie weeks

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Speaker 4: that you just mentioned. I'm gonna take the Detroit Lions

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Speaker 4: coming off their bye a week plus seven in Dallas

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Speaker 4: to face America's team, the Cowboys. This is a bad

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Speaker 4: situational spot. Part of it is that Lions bye week.

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Speaker 4: You're coming off a bye, and don't forget what happened

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Speaker 4: to the Lions the last time they've played. They got

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Speaker 4: shut out by the Patriots. They had a bunch of

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Speaker 4: their guys missing, the whole offense was basically in the hospital,

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Speaker 4: and they just looked ugly against the Patriots. But typically speaking,

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Speaker 4: teams coming off a shutout loss as an underdog fifty

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Speaker 4: eight percent on cover rate in the next game. Teams

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Speaker 4: that are on the road after a blowout ats loss

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Speaker 4: sixty one percent cover rate the next game. So this

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Speaker 4: is a good spot for the Lions. Their guys are

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Speaker 4: getting healthy. Amina rossa Brown, welcome back, buddy, Get out there.

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Speaker 4: Catch some passes. We need a lot of receptions. Same time,

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Speaker 4: it's a bad situational spot for the Cowboys. They just

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Speaker 4: had that big game against the Eagles that they got

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Speaker 4: up for and then it did not go well for them.

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Speaker 4: So this is the kind of a disappointing week for

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Speaker 4: them coming off the Eagles loss. The Lions had a

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Speaker 4: week to kind of get healthy and get ready. Detroit

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Speaker 4: is still a top ten DVA offense even with that

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Speaker 4: rough game in there, even with the shutout, So that

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Speaker 4: tells you how good this offense can be. And then

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Speaker 4: we've talked about the luck rankings. Our luck rankings for

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Speaker 4: this week have Dallas twenty eight spots luckier in the

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Speaker 4: rankings than the Lions. That's basically, Dallas has been about

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Speaker 4: as lucky as you can get and Detroit about as

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Speaker 4: unlucky as you can get. And when teams are separated

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Speaker 4: by sixteen or more in the luck rankings, the team

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Speaker 4: that has been unluckier so far is fourteen and two

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Speaker 4: against the spread so far the season from our luck

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Speaker 4: ranking guys, So I think there's a spot where things

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Speaker 4: even out a little bit. Jared Goff coming off of

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Speaker 4: bias four and one against the spread, Goth is good

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Speaker 4: in these noon games. I like the spot for Detroit.

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Speaker 4: I will say this, it looks like Dak Prescott probably plays.

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Speaker 4: We've been waiting for it. That all signs point two. Yes,

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Speaker 4: this line to me only moves one direction. So if

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Speaker 4: you're listening, I might wait and see if you can

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Speaker 4: get the seven and a half. It might come because

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Speaker 4: once Dak gets announced as a starter. Look, Dallas is

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Speaker 4: America's team. We're not going down if Dak Prescott comes back.

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Speaker 4: So get the seven if you must, but get a

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Speaker 4: seven and a half or better if you can.

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Speaker 2: I like the Lions, Okay, good stuff off the bye.

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Speaker 5: You got some nuggets there, And of course the DAK news. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: he's out there taking first team reps, medically cleared. Even players,

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Speaker 5: their body language, their quotes to the media after practice,

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Speaker 5: all sound like point is pointing towards the direction is

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Speaker 5: pointing towards Dak playing Sunday against Detroit.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to Luke your first pick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so my first one is going to be the

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Speaker 1: Jags minus three at home hosting the Giants. Which if

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Speaker 1: you opened up all the lines on Sunday night or

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Speaker 1: Monday morning and you saw a five and one team

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Speaker 1: being a three point hundred dollar at a two and

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Speaker 1: four Jacksonville Jaguars team, you're probably like, what in the

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Speaker 1: hell is this? Which, when I'm looking at it, like,

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Speaker 1: the ones that don't make sense are the ones that

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Speaker 1: you want to dive into and see why it's this

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Speaker 1: every single week where going to Jacksonville is one of

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Speaker 1: the hotter places to go in the last two years.

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Speaker 1: And this is a Giants scene that just keeps exceeding

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Speaker 1: expectations every single week where I think the quote unquote

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Speaker 1: sharps are betting against it, have been betting against the

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Speaker 1: Giants every single week and getting burned. Where to me,

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Speaker 1: this line should be more in the ballpark of four

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Speaker 1: and a half four, to be honest. And if you

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Speaker 1: go off of those luck ratings that Brandon just mentioned,

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Speaker 1: and this one has the biggest differential that we've had

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Speaker 1: so far this year, which heavily favors the Jacks. Jags

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Speaker 1: minus three coming off a loss which was a heartbreaking

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Speaker 1: loss against a team that just had two fourth quarter

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Speaker 1: comebacks traveling to Jacksonville, I'll take the Jags minus three.

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Speaker 5: See the stat they've lost eighteen straight straight up.

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Speaker 2: Against the NFC.

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Speaker 5: That is a weird It's so yeah, yeah, those not great, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: louck great, Oh there you go, very good.

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Speaker 2: The'll luck great. And looking at the Action Action.

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Speaker 5: App, Jacksonville getting fifty one percent of the money, just

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Speaker 5: thirty six percent of the bets. This line opened at

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Speaker 5: Giants plus one and a half, so Jaguar is becoming

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Speaker 5: a bigger favorite for this spot. Let's go to Jill Galant.

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Speaker 5: What do you got first pick? Jill, welcome back, Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 4: So, I'm gonna stick with the AFC South.

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Speaker 3: I'm not taking the Jacksonville game, but i am going

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Speaker 3: to look at that Titans Colt scheme and I'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: Take the first half total.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go over twenty and a half.

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Speaker 3: And even though we just kind of lamented about how

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Speaker 3: much scoring is down Tennessee, it hasn't really affect to them,

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Speaker 3: especially in the first half. First half scoring there second

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Speaker 3: in the NFL at sixteen and a half points per game. Now,

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Speaker 3: when these two teams played in Week four, they did

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Speaker 3: combine for thirty four points in the first half. It

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Speaker 3: is worth noting in Titans games this season, the average

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Speaker 3: combined score at halftime is twenty five point eight and

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Speaker 3: over twenty points combined were scored in four of five

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Speaker 3: games for the Titans. And then if you look on

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Speaker 3: the flip side, even though the Colts, we think of

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Speaker 3: that Broncos game and just what a disaster this offense

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Speaker 3: has been four of six games those combined totals have

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Speaker 3: gone over twenty points. So again, it's just one of

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Speaker 3: those things that I'm not ready just to kind of

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Speaker 3: completely right off the Colts offense on how they.

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Speaker 2: Can contribute here.

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Speaker 3: And they might have just found something as well last

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Speaker 3: week versus the Jags. I mean, we talked about it

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Speaker 3: on the recap pod, but again, Matt Ryan just looked

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Speaker 3: just pulled something out of his hat where he just

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Speaker 3: looked like vintage Matt Ryan. I don't know how many

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Speaker 3: times he could still do that, But again, one of

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Speaker 3: those things that maybe you're kind of banking on in

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Speaker 3: the circumstance. I think the one thing that will help

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Speaker 3: him though is Jonathan tay is expected to come back

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Speaker 3: this week niim Mines as well.

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Speaker 4: That should be able to pace that.

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Speaker 3: Run game, not put him in so many positions where

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Speaker 3: he's third and long. So yeah, I like the over

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Speaker 3: twenty and a half in this divisional matchup.

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Speaker 5: Fascinated by this game because for Rabel, this is his

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Speaker 5: fifth year in Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: He is four and oh against the spread.

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Speaker 5: I know you're talking total, but against the spread, Rabel

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Speaker 5: four and oh off the bye week and him and

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Speaker 5: Tannehill have been a phenomenal duo against this division. Brandon,

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Speaker 5: A kind of setting you up here, what is your

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Speaker 5: second best bet?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm coming in on that exact same game, and

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Speaker 4: I'm doing just the first half as well. But I've

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Speaker 4: got a slightly different angle here. You guys stole a

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Speaker 4: lot of my talking points. But I do like the

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Speaker 4: Titans here. I like the Titans to cover the first

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Speaker 4: half spread, so minus half point. Basically you're taking a

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Speaker 4: Titans money line here. You got to win outright, So

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Speaker 4: Titans minus half against the Colts. So a lot of

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Speaker 4: the same numbers you've got here, Like you said, Brandon,

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Speaker 4: Mike Rabel after the bye four and oh not just

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Speaker 4: four straight up and against the spread. He's covering by

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Speaker 4: nineteen points a game. They're coming out hot and destroying

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Speaker 4: teams after the bye week, Ryan Tannehill seven to two

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Speaker 4: after the bye a week against the spread. And Jill,

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Speaker 4: you mentioned that first half. You mentioned the points being high.

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Speaker 4: We didn't mention is that the points are the Titans.

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Speaker 4: The Titans are the ones that are coming in on

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Speaker 4: those points. So that last game only three weeks ago

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Speaker 4: in October, first four drives of the game. The Titans

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Speaker 4: went down and scored on all four drives, one field goal,

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Speaker 4: three touchdowns, twenty four to three. They dominated out of

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Speaker 4: the gates, and that it turned out is not unusual.

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Speaker 4: Like you said, Titans first half offense actually number one

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Speaker 4: in offensive DVOA. Colt's first half offense though dead last

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Speaker 4: in offensive DVAWA and twenty ninth defensively in the first half.

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Speaker 4: So I like the Titans to come out and score.

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Speaker 4: I agree with you there. I don't feel good about

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Speaker 4: the Colts scoring, so I feel better about just grabbing

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Speaker 4: the Titans to get the cover here at halftime. Titans

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Speaker 4: run defense has been really strong, so even if Taylor

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Speaker 4: does come back, I think they hold him in check.

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Speaker 4: And quite honestly, the Titans might just be a solid team.

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Speaker 4: We got thrown off a little bit. They had that

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Speaker 4: Monday night lost against the Bills. They got blown out

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Speaker 4: in that game. If you remove that from the stats,

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Speaker 4: the Titans are number seven and dboa across the rest

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Speaker 4: of the season. So Tennessee is just a much better

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Speaker 4: team overall. And here's the final stat that was the

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Speaker 4: nail in the coffin for me. Titans are four and

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Speaker 4: one ATS in the first half. This season, the Colts

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Speaker 4: are owen six failing the cover by eight point three

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Speaker 4: points a game. So give me the Titans first half

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Speaker 4: and I will take the minus half a point there

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Speaker 4: for the cover.

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Speaker 2: Over on the FanDuel sportsbook.

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Speaker 5: No player props up yet, Jill, you know you're taking

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Speaker 5: it over. So you're probably against the Matt Ryan Iron

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Speaker 5: t this week, right, we want you can throw it

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Speaker 5: the second half, but first half Matt maybe score for us.

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Speaker 1: Well.

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Speaker 3: I think it depends on the odds too, because I

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Speaker 3: think at this point, with the rate that he's been

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Speaker 3: i mean six a side against the Jags, you're probably

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Speaker 3: going to be seeing minus one fifty to minus win

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Speaker 3: sixty odds right now based on the implied probability of

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Speaker 3: him throwing an interception, especially against that Titans secondary.

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Speaker 2: So it's a.

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Speaker 3: Little bit more pricey than probably I would play comparatively

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Speaker 3: to like week one, you know, week two, when books

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Speaker 3: still believed in him and you could get him at

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Speaker 3: plus odds.

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Speaker 5: Stats galore when it comes to Titans Colts. I know

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Speaker 5: we talk so much about Colts Jaguars and how the

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Speaker 5: Jaguars like weirdly just beat the absolute crap out of

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Speaker 5: the Colts. But yeah, I mean Brandon named off several trends.

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Speaker 5: But this duo of Tannehill and Rabel fourteen and three

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Speaker 5: straight up, eleven and six ats as a duo against

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Speaker 5: the Division, five and one straight up ats against the

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Speaker 5: Indianapolis Cults. So they and it's off of by so

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Speaker 5: a lot of direction, a lot of angles point to

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Speaker 5: the direction of the Tennessee Titans coming off of bye.

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Speaker 5: Let's go back to Luke for his second best bet.

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Speaker 2: What do you have?

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to go to the Bengals minus six

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Speaker 1: and a half hosting the Falcons at home, where right now,

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Speaker 1: this is peak Falcons mark get expectations. They're the first

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Speaker 1: team to be six to ohero against the spread and

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Speaker 1: being an underdog in Week seven, which is basically peak expectation.

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Speaker 1: And I'm going to take a Bengals team that is

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Speaker 1: five and one against the spread the last two years

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Speaker 1: with at home by favored by three and a half

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Speaker 1: or more. You got Hayward out for the Falcons, and

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Speaker 1: then you have Terrell who's definitely not one hundred percent,

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Speaker 1: who's paid played like a bottom I think, bottom third

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Speaker 1: of the league right now in terms of Corners, and

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Speaker 1: then you've got a Falcons team that is just dead

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Speaker 1: last and pressure rate right now in the league. And

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Speaker 1: if Joe Burrow has a weakness, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: this offensive line allowing the defensive Lions to get in

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Speaker 1: his face. So against the team that is struggling to

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Speaker 1: bring pressure at peak expectation in terms of what the

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Speaker 1: market thinks of them, against the team and the Bengals

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Speaker 1: that seem to have turned a corner going more this

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Speaker 1: past Sunday, I'm just going to take a Bengals team

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Speaker 1: against a Falcons team that was a nine and a

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Speaker 1: half point underne against the Bucks not too long ago

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Speaker 1: and is now a six and a half point under

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Speaker 1: at Bengals. I'll take Bengals minus six and a half.

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Speaker 5: So so on the flip side, and we talked about

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Speaker 5: this in our recap show. Brandon and Jill were both

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Speaker 5: there on the Action Network podcast. On the flip side

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Speaker 5: of your argument, Luke flipping units. Now, Cincinnati defense one

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Speaker 5: of the more underrated units. They haven't allowed a second

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Speaker 5: half touchdown this season. That's a staggering stat and we

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Speaker 5: don't really know if Marcus Mariota is any good. Jill

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Speaker 5: kind of hit on that, he's like, Oh, he's like

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Speaker 5: weirdly being efficient. He was efficient passing, but not many attempts.

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Speaker 5: Still runs around like he's got he's a chicken with

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Speaker 5: his head cut off. So it's really confusing as to

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Speaker 5: what kind of quarterback he is.

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Speaker 2: Brandon.

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Speaker 5: This actually goes against your hot read from Sunday and

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Speaker 5: the number was five and a half Monday morning, but

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Speaker 5: you got it at six and a half. Take you're

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Speaker 5: taking the Falcons. This was discussed Sunday night. It's back

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Speaker 5: to that number. Do you still like the ward six

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Speaker 5: and a half taking the Atlanta side?

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Speaker 4: I do still like it. The key for me here

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Speaker 4: is a key. At least the Bengals are missing DJ Reader,

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Speaker 4: that run stuffing defensive tackle, so I think that's you

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Speaker 4: mentioned the losses for Atlanta's defense. Those do worry me.

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Speaker 4: I think the Bengals will score here. But DJ Reader,

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Speaker 4: the run stuffer, Atlanta is the number one rushing DVAA

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Speaker 4: in the NFL, and that has set up everything the

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Speaker 4: Falcons are doing is run the ball early and often

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Speaker 4: get in those advantageous down second and three, second and four,

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Speaker 4: and you're moving the chains, keeping the offense moving the

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Speaker 4: Bengals do the opposite. The Bengals should be able to

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Speaker 4: take advantage of this Falcons defense, they should dial it

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Speaker 4: up deep. But Zach Taylor has not done that. Zach

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Speaker 4: Taylor over commits to the run on early downs and

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that's going to work that well.

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Speaker 4: They're not set up to take advantage of what the

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Speaker 4: Falcons are trying to offer them. So I like the

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Speaker 4: DJ reader absence there as a big thing. And then

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Speaker 4: the other thing you mentioned too, Luke, Like you said,

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Speaker 4: obviously the Falcons are as undefeated and underdogs week six

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Speaker 4: or later. Teams like that that are underdogs are seven

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Speaker 4: to four ats themselves, and they've won for the last

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Speaker 4: six out right. So I see both sides here, and

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Speaker 4: I think it's gonna go back and forth a bit.

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Speaker 4: I just feel like Atlanta has the guns to stay

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Speaker 4: in the races here.

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Speaker 1: And I do want Reader has been out for a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks now, I believe, so Salily gets a

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Speaker 1: new injury where this defense has been stout against the

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Speaker 1: run without him already, and then the Falcons offense being

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Speaker 1: number one rushing in Dvoa. I totally get, but they've

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Speaker 1: gotten some really good breaks like the Niners that was

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Speaker 1: not the Niners team that was not the number one

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Speaker 1: defense in terms of the injuries that they have last week,

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Speaker 1: with a couple other coin flip covers that they had

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Speaker 1: before that.

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Speaker 4: It just feels like.

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Speaker 1: The stats on the surface for this Falcons offense doesn't

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Speaker 1: really resonate the opponents that they've had in the good

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Speaker 1: break that they've gone into situationally going to each game.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that that makes sense. I'll say this too, Brandon.

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Speaker 4: Just to close here is I do like the Falcons

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Speaker 4: here back at the six and a half, but like

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Speaker 4: you said, I dropped down to five and a half,

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Speaker 4: I don't think i'd play it there. I think i'd

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Speaker 4: play six and a half. I'd play the six. If

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Speaker 4: it does move back again the other way, I think

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Speaker 4: we're about at the spot where I would stop playing

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Speaker 4: it here. It's going to be a close one. So

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Speaker 4: it'll be a fun one to see how this shapes out.

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Speaker 2: Healthy pushback on these best bets. Love to see it.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to Jill.

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Speaker 5: Second pick for Jill, and I get a sense we

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Speaker 5: might have more potential pushback.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because even when I say it out loud, it's

393
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Speaker 3: a really stinky pick and just but I have to

394
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Speaker 3: take it because now the numbers moved too much and

395
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Speaker 3: it's going to be Chargers minus five and a half

396
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Speaker 3: versus the Seahawks, and I'm going to channel my inner

397
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Speaker 3: Vegas refund here. I'm fading the Seahawks. And it's a

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Speaker 3: bit of a contrarium pick, even for my own handicapping,

399
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Speaker 3: because personally I don't like betting the Chargers ever, especially

400
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Speaker 3: as a fave. But this line again has just dropped

401
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Speaker 3: too much. Like when it was seven and a half,

402
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Speaker 3: when Brandon was doing the look ahead, Yeah, I wasn't

403
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Speaker 3: gonna play it because all the trends point to.

404
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 2: A big old l for.

405
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Speaker 3: The Chargers and I was just like, no, I'm not

406
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Speaker 3: playing that. But then as the line kept moving, it

407
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Speaker 3: as more money and steam kept coming in on the Seattle,

408
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Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, this is kind of a point

409
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Speaker 3: now where it's almost like we got to flip favor here.

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Speaker 3: And I honestly don't think the Seahawks are going to

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Speaker 3: be able to stop the Chargers offense at all, Like

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Speaker 3: they're thirty first and rush yards allowed twenty four than

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Speaker 3: pass yards allowed, and if you look at how the

414
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Speaker 3: Seahawks offense kind of operates like when they're facing a

415
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Speaker 3: stronger pass rush, it can kind of get decimated. Like

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Speaker 3: you look at Week two, like Luke just mentioned about

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers and their defense, like when they

418
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 3: place played like a harder end, high end defensive line defense.

419
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Speaker 3: Then we scored seven points in that game, and the

420
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Speaker 3: same thing against the Broncos. Yes, they did end up

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Speaker 3: winning that game, but some of those like they probably

422
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Speaker 3: should have lost that game if you're actually going back

423
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Speaker 3: and looking and recapping that game in your head. And

424
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Speaker 3: they're also a pretty undisciplined team. That's the other thing

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Speaker 3: too that I think that could cost them in a

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Speaker 3: cover They have the second most penalties per game eight

427
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Speaker 3: point three. They're actually second in DPIs, which I think

428
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Speaker 3: goes against playing against the Chargers who love the bombit

429
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Speaker 3: out there, especially I think Keenan Allen is likely going

430
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Speaker 3: to be back this week as well. My first instinct

431
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Speaker 3: just kind of looking at this as well, I was

432
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Speaker 3: thinking maybe we should take the over fifty one and

433
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Speaker 3: a half, but again, what I just mentioned off the

434
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Speaker 3: top touchdown scoring down across the board, I don't like

435
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Speaker 3: taking any kind of over, especially with these two offenses.

436
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 3: So I'd rather just bank on the Chargers slicing and dicing.

437
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 4: Up the Seahawks.

438
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 5: Okay, let's go to the island. Seahawks Island. Brandon Anderson,

439
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 5: the loan resident on this podcast. Even from Sunday night,

440
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 5: he remains.

441
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 2: On the island. He ain't going anywhere.

442
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 5: He's enjoying his Seahawks vacation. Respond please, and it also

443
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 5: leads to your last pick.

444
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 2: It does.

445
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm on Seahawks Island, and I will respond just

446
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 4: by making my final pick here, which is the Seattle

447
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 4: Seahawks plus five and a half at the Chargers. Now,

448
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 4: of course I like this better an hour at plus

449
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 4: six and a half. I liked it better a few

450
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 4: days ago at plus seven and a half. Of course,

451
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 4: of course I take the extra points. I still like

452
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 4: it at plus five and a half. I still think

453
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 4: Seattle has a decent chance to win the game outright.

454
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 4: So here's why I like Seattle. You've heard this a

455
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 4: lot because we've been on Seattle Island for a while.

456
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 2: Now.

457
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 4: It's ball, Me and Breezy out here. We're doing well.

458
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 4: Like in this game, we have this one great offense,

459
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 4: an elite quarterback, great receivers attacking down the field, all

460
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 4: the things that Jill said. It's just fell their offense.

461
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 4: It's Seattle's offense. Gino Smith is the elite quarterback, Tyler

462
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 4: Lockett and DK Metcalf, they're the receivers hitting the downfield,

463
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 4: passing plays and this Chargers passing defense is beatable that way.

464
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 4: And Seattle's offensive line blocking well. Kenneth Walker, the rookie

465
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 4: has run. You know, he's running mean, he's running angry

466
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 4: and getting after it. So again, like I said with

467
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 4: the last game, this is a spot where I think

468
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 4: the coaching matchup is really important here. Joe Lombardi for

469
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 4: the Chargers has not done well making things easy. He

470
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 4: doesn't push that easy button for the Chargers. He doesn't

471
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 4: take what's freely available, and they constantly get in third

472
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 4: and eight, third and ten, justin Herbert save us. Look,

473
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: Seattle fans, you know what I'm talking about. This is

474
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 4: what they did with Russell Wilson four years That's what

475
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 4: happened with them. Instead, the Seahawks this year are taking

476
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 4: the easy stuff. They're moving the chains, they're getting the

477
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 4: easy plays early on downs. Chargers, by the way, are

478
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 4: twenty ninth defensively on first downs in DBA, the Seahawks

479
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,199
Speaker 4: are top ten defensively on first down, So Seattle is

480
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 4: going to make things harder. But the Chargers in third

481
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 4: and long and say justin you got to do it,

482
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 4: and he might, but Seattle offensively is going to just

483
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 4: constantly be in good position, moving the chains, keeping the

484
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 4: ball all game. And Seattle's defense, by the way, top

485
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,879
Speaker 4: eleven in defense the last three weeks as well, so

486
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: they're getting better as well. Chargers still dealing with major

487
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 4: problems on the offensive line. I think that's why this

488
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 4: line has moved a little bit. And don't forget short

489
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 4: week for the Chargers. They just played an overtime game

490
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 4: against a division rival, so this is a rough spot

491
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 4: for them. Situationally, it's a home game, but is it.

492
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 4: Though it's in LA, there's gonna be more Seattle fans

493
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 4: here than there are Chargers fans, so that's kind of

494
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 4: a hidden line spot as well. Pee Carroll sixty one

495
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 4: percent ats an underdog. Gino Smith sixty two percent. I

496
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 4: still like Seattle. I like the five and a half again,

497
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 4: if it drops a little further five to four and

498
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 4: a half, Those aren't really important numbers right now, key

499
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 4: numbers wise, you may wait. You may wait and see

500
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 4: if we can get back to a six or six

501
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 4: and a half. That's obviously a little better value there.

502
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 4: But I like the Seattle five and a half. I'll

503
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 4: play the money line as well. I'm on Seattle Island.

504
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 4: I'm setting up shot. Come on out.

505
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: You already have set up shop. You're just staying longer,

506
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: which that's true.

507
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 4: I'm going a hotel now. I'm making room for everyone.

508
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 5: You might be staying till the new year because you

509
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 5: have playoff making the playoff stock on Seattle as well.

510
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 2: From last week, So.

511
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 5: Gino Smith ranks number nine in the NFL in passing yards.

512
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 2: He's second in the NFL.

513
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 5: And completion percentage it's seventy three percent. That is phenomenal,

514
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 5: And all the money's coming in on Seattle. Still looking

515
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 5: at the Action app, the line opened at eight and

516
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 5: a half, Seattle getting ninety six percent of the money,

517
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 5: eighty seven percent of the bets. So they are a

518
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 5: public side this week. That's all coming to you from

519
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 5: the Action App on one of those pro accounts.

520
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 1: But you got Luke and my favorite Seahawks narrative right

521
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: now has nothing to do with this week's bets, but

522
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: the Seahawks getting a top ten pick in NFL Draft

523
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 1: next next year via the Broncos is just phenomenal. It's

524
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: just because of the Russell Wilson trade, which if the

525
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 1: Broncos continue to lose, they're trending in that direction.

526
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 4: But that's all.

527
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 2: It's incredible. Pete, Pete, have another piece of gum. You

528
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 2: deserve it. Dude.

529
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 5: Speaking of Luke, let's go back to you and what's

530
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 5: your last best bet?

531
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: So my last one is going to be the Commanders,

532
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: I think right now it's plus four and a half,

533
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: which who are hosting the Packers at home? To me,

534
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 1: this is one of those classic cases that I always

535
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: look for, and it was actually a classic case of

536
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: the Seahawks when Russell Wilson was there. But it's just

537
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,719
Speaker 1: a Packers team that has this shiny object distracting everyone

538
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 1: from the deeper problems that actually are going on with

539
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: that team. Where Like, there's nothing about this Packers team

540
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: that shows me that they are a playoff contender right now.

541
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: They have Rogers, but the only convincing win that they've

542
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: had any type of margin of victories against the Bears

543
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: and we all know how good the Bears are. They're

544
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 1: not good. Where the Jets d line dominated the Packers'

545
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 1: offensive line, and the Commanders share a very similar key

546
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 1: aspect of their defense. Their defensive line can be dominant,

547
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 1: which they can mirror what the Jets did in terms

548
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: of what the defensive lines we're capable of, Like I

549
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: can see them winning where really the biggest issue was

550
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz and he's going to be out, so it's

551
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: not like Taylor Heineke's an upgri but I wouldn't ding

552
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: them honestly like much, if any at all, going from

553
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz the turnover machine, to Taylor Heinike, who hopefully

554
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: doesn't do that. And everyone remembers the Commanders as a

555
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: nine and a half point under dog against the Bucks

556
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: in the playoffs a couple of years ago, which like,

557
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: if we can get a Taylor Heineke that is mobile

558
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 1: making plays anything close to that performance, which I think

559
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: is very possible, I'll take the Commanders.

560
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 5: Washington backup quarterbacks are seven to two and one against

561
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 5: the number in their last ten games since twenty nineteen,

562
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 5: so just before the COVID year, well, Heinekee played against

563
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 5: Tampa and that was a home game for Washington. Remember

564
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 5: Tampa was in the wildcard round, they had to go

565
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,719
Speaker 5: to Washington to division winner. And the Packers two and

566
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 5: four against the number. This season, they are failing to

567
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 5: cover the spread by just over eight points per game.

568
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: That is the.

569
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 5: Worst margin in the NFL. Look, he had a response

570
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 5: to that.

571
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: And the last thing I just want to bring out

572
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: that I forgot to mention is that the Titans were

573
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 1: one and a half point favorites at Washington a couple

574
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,160
Speaker 1: weeks ago. And there isn't a case that you can

575
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 1: make too many that the Packers are five and a

576
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 1: half to six points better than the Titans. Fair enough,

577
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: it's just not there's no case, which I think is

578
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 1: just the Aaron Rodgers shiny objects perceptionally masking this Packers

579
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 1: team that isn't what we thought they were.

580
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 5: It's unfamiliar territory for the quarterback and for the coach too.

581
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 5: As a large favorite, Lafleur has not been good the

582
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 5: last two weeks's. He had been twenty one to oh

583
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 5: straight up as a six point or greater favorite.

584
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,719
Speaker 2: So have that, Jill take us home? What do you have?

585
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 3: I'm riding with VR on this one. I'm going Commanders

586
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 3: plus four and a half as well, mainly because we're

587
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 3: getting it past the key numbers, like over the three

588
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 3: and over the four. I would I would say that

589
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 3: Taylor Heineke isn't.

590
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 4: Much of a drop off from Curson Wentz. I'm sorry, Brandon,

591
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 4: I know that your rider died with wins.

592
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 3: But I just I don't think, especially with this offseason

593
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 3: and him even saying in like interviews this week, that

594
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: he feels more comfortable within the offense, I think that

595
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 3: should obviously help. But Aaron Rodgers, he's just not right,

596
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,360
Speaker 3: Like there's something going on with this thumb where it's

597
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 3: actually affecting his throwing capability, and that in turn means

598
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 3: the Packers aren't right because the receivers in him are

599
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 3: out of sink. His favorite receiver, Randall Cobb, who's actually

600
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 3: the target leader for the team, is out now. And

601
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 3: it probably explains with that lack of sink, is that

602
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 3: that's why he's been.

603
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:31,239
Speaker 4: Getting sacked so much.

604
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 3: He's been sacked fifteen times this season, and if you

605
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 3: actually go back and look, he's on pace like right

606
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 3: now to be sacked around forty times this year. The

607
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 3: last time that he was sacked over thirty five times

608
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: was twenty eighteen and the Packers finished six nine and

609
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: one that year. So the protection for the Packers right

610
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 3: now is a big issue, and especially because what do

611
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 3: the Commanders do well. They get to the quarterback and

612
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: they don't allow rushing touchdowns, which is the basis of

613
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 3: the Packers offense. They've got nineteen sacks this year, that's

614
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 3: top five. They also have only allowed three rushing towns

615
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 3: that's also top five in the NFL. Also got a

616
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 3: nice like new shiny toy in Brian Robinson that they

617
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 3: could run. I think the Commanders will probably win this

618
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: game outright, but I think just taking the safer pick.

619
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 2: I like the plus four.

620
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: And a half and the Commanders like the Commander's defense.

621
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: I do think, and I said it last week, I

622
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: think they're somewhat underrated where they've been giving up the

623
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: explosive play, which you look back at last week's Thursday

624
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: night game, which, like I hope you didn't watch that game,

625
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: the Bears rushing attack, those stats are inflated because you

626
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: had a Herbert like seventy five yard run where they

627
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: can just get rid of these I guess you could say,

628
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: like outlier explosive plays, this.

629
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 4: Defense isn't as bad as I think they are on paper.

630
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 2: We all watched the game, so it was I.

631
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 4: Mean I did too, the frozen Pizza. Yes of Thursday

632
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 4: night games, am I right?

633
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 5: Thank goodness we didn't have to recap that game on Sunday.

634
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 4: Anyway.

635
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 5: Before we wrap today's show, what we always do is

636
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 5: we take a quick look at.

637
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: Next week's lines.

638
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 5: We'll go to week eight in the NFL and see

639
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 5: what we like. Any numbers we like now before they

640
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 5: adjust after Sunday. So, for example, back to Seahawks Island

641
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 5: we go, Brandon Anderson, this is one.

642
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 2: Of your specialties.

643
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 5: You grab Seattle at plus seven and a half last Thursday,

644
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 5: A week can go today before the Chargers played Monday

645
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 5: night against Denver, and now Seattle, as we've talked about,

646
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 5: is down to five and a half. So nice work.

647
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 5: We'll see how it goes. What do we like for

648
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 5: week eight?

649
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 4: Well, going back, I might be setting up shop on

650
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 4: Falcons Island as well, because I'm going to go with

651
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 4: the Falcons here, Atlanta Falcons at home minus six and

652
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 4: a half. And it's not really even about the Falcons.

653
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 4: It's about the Panthers because that's the opponent here. So

654
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 4: let's talk. Take a trip down memory lane. December twenty fifteen,

655
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 4: the Panthers and the Falcons play. You remember this one.

656
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 4: You watched it, Cam Newton played. The Panthers won thirty

657
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 4: eight and nothing. They're literally taking pictures on the sidelines

658
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 4: during the game. Remember they're celeb while the game was

659
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: not over yet because the Panthers go to thirteen to zero.

660
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,959
Speaker 4: They played again two weeks later. Remember what happened? The

661
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: Falcons ended the perfect season And since that Cam Newton game,

662
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 4: Falcons have won ten of thirteen since then against the

663
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 4: Panthers and covered ten of thirteen. This is a personal

664
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 4: game in this rivalry for them, and I don't think

665
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: they're going to need that much help against this garbage

666
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 4: Panthers team. Panthers have lost three straight games by double digits.

667
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,959
Speaker 4: They have two two offensive touchdowns in those three games.

668
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 4: They are not scoring the football. The Falcons defense isn't great,

669
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 4: but the Panthers offense can't take advantage of it. PJ. Walker, Jakbeson,

670
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 4: Sam Darnold, Shane Falco. I don't know who's playing quarterback

671
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 4: for the Panthers. It doesn't matter. The Panthers are gonna

672
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 4: get blown out by the Bucks this weekend. We're gonna

673
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 4: move past the key number six and a half. Goodbye.

674
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 4: It's gonna be seven and a half or above. So

675
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 4: you want to grab the Falcons right now. The Panthers

676
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 4: are in tank mode. It's over. And by the way, okay,

677
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 4: this game that we're betting on Falcons Panthers two days

678
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 4: before the trade deadline, so we might not even have

679
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 4: Christian McCaffrey or DG. Moore around if the Panthers really

680
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 4: blow things up. So I am grabbing this or right

681
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 4: now if you want to tease six and a half,

682
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 4: great teaser spot. Just gave me the win against the Panthers.

683
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 4: This is a prime spot. Gimme Atlanta good stuff.

684
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 5: I was just going to bring up the trade deadline,

685
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 5: which is November one, That is Tuesday. Game of course

686
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 5: is Sunday at one o'clock. So even if they're there,

687
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 5: they could be checked out. They could be told, hey,

688
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 5: by the way, we're only going to play like twenty

689
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 5: five snaps because we're going to get a pick for you.

690
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 5: We're sending you to next team something like that. Right,

691
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 5: So you can't convince me otherwise that stuff doesn't go on.

692
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: So good stuff.

693
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 5: Good note on the trade deadline, it's hard to believe

694
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 5: it's the trade deadline already. It feels like we just

695
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 5: got started on this show. So let's recap the picks

696
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 5: before we say goodbye. Brandon Anderson is on the Lions

697
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 5: plus seven. He likes the Titans against the Colts but

698
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 5: in the first half minus half a point, and he's

699
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 5: on the c Hawks plus five and a half.

700
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 2: For his third pick.

701
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 5: Luke is on the Jaguars minus three. He likes the

702
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 5: Bengals minus six and a half, and he likes the

703
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 5: Commanders at home to cover with the points against Green

704
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 5: Bay plus four and a half. Jill's going to Titans Colts,

705
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 5: but he's talking first half taken first half over twenty

706
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 5: and a half points. He's got the Chargers minus five

707
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 5: and a half, versts the Seahawks, and he's also on

708
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 5: the Commanders plus four and a half. So we have

709
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,719
Speaker 5: some contradictions and some agreements on this Best Bets episode.

710
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 5: It's that point of the year. Everybody we all have

711
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 5: takes love to see it follow. All three of these

712
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 5: guys on the Action app, find their picks, find their analysis,

713
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 5: find the data that they use to get ready for

714
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 5: the NFL season each and every week.

715
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: Again.

716
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 5: Also find our podcast picks Action Network NFL Picks. It's

717
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 5: all there, We log them every single week thanks to

718
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 5: Brandon Anderson, Luke Swayin, Jokelot, Brendan Glasheen. Best of luck

719
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 5: with your our best bets this weekend. Everybody, We will

720
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 5: see you again Monday morning for the recap show right

721
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 5: here on the Action Network podcast