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Speaker 1: Happy Monday and Happy Day. First hundred Days week. This week,

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Speaker 1: President Trump is going to pass the first hundred Days.

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Speaker 1: You were lucky enough. Podcast listeners were lucky enough to

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Speaker 1: get essentially because the Pew poll preview that I gave

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Speaker 1: you a couple of episodes ago essentially was repeated by

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Speaker 1: everybody else's poll in New York Times, Washington Post, CNN,

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Speaker 1: everybody has essentially found the same thing. This first hundred

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Speaker 1: days for President Trump has not gone well at all.

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Speaker 1: We can do the quick top lines, but look the economy.

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Speaker 1: If you think about it, in the first hundred days

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Speaker 1: from when he started on day one, what's gone better

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Speaker 1: from him? Only one thing has gone better, and that's

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Speaker 1: the border. The economy is worse, The world is more unstable.

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Speaker 1: Government trust is worse. When you think about the things

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Speaker 1: ultimately that he was elected to do, restore some trust

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Speaker 1: and integrity and government that hasn't happened. Things are worse,

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Speaker 1: make the economy better, and bring down prices. That hasn't happened.

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Speaker 1: If anything, prices are going to be going up. This

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Speaker 1: economy is more unstable. We just had the worst March

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Speaker 1: housing report in basically since the pandemic. So when you

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Speaker 1: look at those all of the actual metrics, forget that

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Speaker 1: before you get to polling, like where the actual economy is,

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Speaker 1: where the actual things are. It's you know, the public's

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Speaker 1: being rather logical about this. They're not happy, they don't

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Speaker 1: like what he's doing. The biggest thing is I think

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Speaker 1: the pupole did better, frankly than anybody else. And that

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Speaker 1: was the reason I spent so much time in that

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Speaker 1: pupole with you is I think they did the best

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Speaker 1: job of helping to explain well, the public is still

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Speaker 1: shares his goals and would like to see him succeed

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Speaker 1: on the promises he's made. There is just widespread belief

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Speaker 1: this just been poorly executed an administration really, that it's

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Speaker 1: more about incompetency than anything else. This is the gang

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Speaker 1: really that can't shoot straight in here, and so this

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Speaker 1: is not good at all. So the first hundred days

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Speaker 1: have been a failure. The question is going to be

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Speaker 1: what are the next hundred days. They need to get

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Speaker 1: some trade deals, they need to get some points on

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Speaker 1: the board. Right now, they claim all these people are

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Speaker 1: knocking on their door making calls. So far, no deals

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Speaker 1: have happened, not one, I think at one point. One

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Speaker 1: of the spokespeople for the administration, it said ninety deals

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Speaker 1: in ninety days. That was a possibility. But one thing

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Speaker 1: you've got to understand is this administration probably more than

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Speaker 1: any other. Look, you always expect representatives of the administration

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Speaker 1: to be saying putting everything in the best possible light.

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Speaker 1: But there's best possible light, and then there is sort

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Speaker 1: of this. There's a point where I think these spokespeople

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Speaker 1: are losing credibility. Marco Rubio, I think is losing credibility.

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Speaker 1: Scott Bessett, if he's not careful, is going to lose credibility.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is one of the quotes he had

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Speaker 1: from the Sunday shows. In game theory, it's called strategic uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: So you're not going to tell the person on the

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Speaker 1: other side of the negotiation where you're going to end up.

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Speaker 1: And nobody's better at creating this leverage than President Trump. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: that was him on trade and on these talks, not

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Speaker 1: just with China but with other countries. But you have

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Speaker 1: to sit here and say to yourself, really, strategic uncertainty,

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Speaker 1: that's what's good for that. No. Strategic uncertainty is why

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Speaker 1: this economy is tanking right before our eyes. That's why

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Speaker 1: nobody wants to buy a house or put a house

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Speaker 1: for sale. Strategic uncertainty. He knows better, but he's trying

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Speaker 1: desperately to speak to dear leader. So it really is

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Speaker 1: one of these things where I think we've seen and

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Speaker 1: I've look, I've beaten this dead horse a few times.

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Speaker 1: This administration. Trump two point zero is not a continuation

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Speaker 1: of Trump one point zero, Trump one point zero, Mike Pence,

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Speaker 1: Write's previous, Jared Kushner. Those three gentlemen did a lot

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Speaker 1: to create guardrails and have personnel that knew what they

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Speaker 1: were doing. And in hindsight, I think all three of

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Speaker 1: those gentlemen deserve a lot more credit for their time

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Speaker 1: in government service than they got at the time. Understandably,

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Speaker 1: politics is a rough business, but boy, when you look

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Speaker 1: at the big difference between one point zero and two

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Speaker 1: point zero, it's pretty plain to see just a few

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Speaker 1: other things. Look, I've got an extra super sized episode

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Speaker 1: for you. I've got Congressman Dan Goldman, he of course

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Speaker 1: was the chief counsel and the first Trump impeachment, decided

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Speaker 1: to get into politics and is in his second term

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Speaker 1: representing a big chunk of New York City. So we

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Speaker 1: spend a little bit talking about the law, talking about

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Speaker 1: is there a better way to appoint the Justice Department?

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Speaker 1: Is there a way to depoliticize the Justice Department, take

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Speaker 1: it out of the executive branch. I'm somebody who thinks

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Speaker 1: we should be treating the attorney that the appointment of

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Speaker 1: the Attorney General and the deputy attorney generals and all

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Speaker 1: of those folks should be much closer to how we

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Speaker 1: handle the Federal Reserve. Yes, there's presidential appointments, but it's

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Speaker 1: not easy for a president to fire a member a

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Speaker 1: Fed governor, although he may try. We'll see. And if

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Speaker 1: you had a situation where there were five year terms

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Speaker 1: so that there was always some sort of potential overlap

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Speaker 1: with a previous administration, regardless of party, but a previous administration,

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Speaker 1: think you could. It's the only way to restore any

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Speaker 1: sort of integrity the way, if anything, this Justice Department

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Speaker 1: is doing more I think to ruin trust in the

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Speaker 1: rule of law. The politicizing Eric Adams, the politicizing of

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Speaker 1: the DCUs attorney, constant politicization of what's going on here.

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Speaker 1: If this, you know, supposedly Donald Trump ran against politicizing

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Speaker 1: the Justice Department, and if anything, he's decided to we

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Speaker 1: but he's like, oh yeah, if I thought Biden weaponized things,

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Speaker 1: he's going to triple down on weaponizing the Justice Department.

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Speaker 1: And that has happened, and this is going to be

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Speaker 1: a fight. I think that's what you've already seen. Quite

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Speaker 1: a few career Justice Department officials have to resign. So

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Speaker 1: Dan Goldman and I get into that after him. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to also tack on an interview I did with

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Speaker 1: the Cook Political Reports Dave Wasserman. I've seen enough Dave Wasserman,

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Speaker 1: if you follow him on social media, they have rolled

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Speaker 1: out the Cook Political the Cook Presidential sort of voting

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Speaker 1: Index if you will buy congressional district they call it

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Speaker 1: their PVI, and essentially it's you know, how much how Republican,

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Speaker 1: how democrat any district is? You know, two three four

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Speaker 1: points on one side, two three four points on together.

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Speaker 1: So for you true data nerds out there and house

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Speaker 1: race campaign junkies, Wasserman and I get a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a head start on that. But before you hear

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Speaker 1: from Dave, I'm also going to be giving you a

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Speaker 1: brief update of what else I was up to this weekend,

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Speaker 1: which was I gave my first ever TED talk, and

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Speaker 1: my topic is actually very timely with the two conversations

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Speaker 1: I have today, was about uncapping the House, how it

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Speaker 1: is time for the House of Representatives to actually be

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Speaker 1: representative of the people again. Right now the House is,

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Speaker 1: the House of Representatives is not nearly as small d

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Speaker 1: democratic as it was nearly one hundred years ago. Up

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Speaker 1: until nineteen thirty, we regularly expanded the House with the

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Speaker 1: population because we never wanted congressional districts to get out

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Speaker 1: of hand. So later in this broadcast, I will give

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Speaker 1: you my plan of how we can fix the House.

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Speaker 1: And if we fix the House, it would actually fix

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Speaker 1: the electoral college and probably minimize gerrymandering. One Act of Congress,

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Speaker 1: no constitutional amendment, nothing like that, Just a simple Act

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Speaker 1: of Congress, actually going back to what the founders had

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Speaker 1: said was necessary for an actual democracy to be effected.

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Speaker 1: That's all Congress would have to do, and we'd solve

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Speaker 1: our problems with the electoral college, are problems with jerry mandering,

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Speaker 1: and maybe people would actually think that Congress represents them.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of this weekend, it was White House Correspondence Weekend,

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Speaker 1: and look, let's be honest, it was an awkward weekend

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Speaker 1: for a number of reasons. Obviously, you had the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration trying to trying to exploit the weekend. They're desperate

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Speaker 1: to try to make the media look like they're part

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Speaker 1: of the opposition with the Democratic Party. This has been

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Speaker 1: a campaign tactic of Donald Trump and his aggressive right

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Speaker 1: wing for some time. One of the reminders I'd like

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Speaker 1: to tell you is, whenever some partisan tells you somebody's biased,

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Speaker 1: just remember they're a biased person. And the last person

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Speaker 1: who has the credibility to decide what's biased is somebody

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Speaker 1: who's blatant, blatantly biased. And so I will tell you this,

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Speaker 1: whenever you see a Cabinet official or a Trump official

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Speaker 1: avoid answering our question by attacking the press, it means

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Speaker 1: they don't have a good answer to tell you. And

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Speaker 1: you should be insulted when you hear that stuff because

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Speaker 1: they're refusing to actually deal with the subject at hand.

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Speaker 1: And I hope more of my colleagues in the press

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Speaker 1: go ahead and say, look, attack us all you want,

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Speaker 1: I don't care. Just answer the goddamn question without attacking

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Speaker 1: the press. Actually answer the question, because guess what at

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Speaker 1: least half the country thinks what you guys are doing

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Speaker 1: is terrible, So why don't you try to make your

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Speaker 1: case and convince them it's not as terrible as it looks.

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Speaker 1: The inability of some of these elected officials to only

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Speaker 1: use the crutch of attacking the press, I think shows

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Speaker 1: you the limited intellectual capability some of them actually may

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Speaker 1: have on that front. But the other awkward aspect of

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Speaker 1: the White House Correspondence Weekend is that it's always felt

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Speaker 1: out of touch. Right here we are with an economy

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Speaker 1: that is not just slowing down, it may turn into

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Speaker 1: a recession, and here's the Washington Press Corps hobnobbing with

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Speaker 1: as many elites as they could convince to come to

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Speaker 1: the dinner in black tie. It is an awkward look

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Speaker 1: at best. I do think that the Washington Press Corps

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Speaker 1: should be able to celebrate itself every year, But maybe

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Speaker 1: there's a better way to do this. Does it have

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Speaker 1: to be black tie and elites? Can it be something different?

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Speaker 1: You know? Can it be something a bit more open

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Speaker 1: to the people. Who knows? But there's I think celebrating journalism,

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Speaker 1: celebrating those that are doing it right, is a good thing,

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Speaker 1: But doing it the way we're doing I think just

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Speaker 1: only makes it easy to weaponize sort of elitism against

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Speaker 1: the press, which is something we ought to fight against

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Speaker 1: because most people of the press are not elites at all.

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Speaker 1: If anything, you know, the elites are about two or

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Speaker 1: three people. They're like the media owners. In fact, the

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Speaker 1: biggest problem with this weekend is that many of the

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Speaker 1: many of the organizations that pay for all these parties,

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Speaker 1: they're part of the problem. They're the ones not standing

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Speaker 1: up for the First Amendment with the associated Press. They're

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Speaker 1: the ones not that are telling their reporters and correspondence

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Speaker 1: to hold back, not ask tough questions because they're afraid

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Speaker 1: of upsetting the government and afraid that the government is

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Speaker 1: going to then weaponize the government against these companies and

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Speaker 1: hurt their bottom line in other places. I understand the fear,

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Speaker 1: I understand the fidishary responsibility to their shareholders, But boy,

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Speaker 1: am I insulted when you spend a bunch of money

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Speaker 1: this weekend claiming that you're fighting for the First Amendment

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Speaker 1: when many of these companies have done nothing for the

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Speaker 1: First Amendment this year as this administration has gotten aggressive.

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Speaker 1: A few other notes from the weekend that I wanted

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Speaker 1: to get don't want to get out there. As a Floridian,

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Speaker 1: I pay a lot of attention to what's going on

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Speaker 1: with the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. And as you know,

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago when there was those sets

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Speaker 1: of special elections out there that what was going on

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Speaker 1: in one of the house races in Pensacola that it

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Speaker 1: wasn't you know, there was definitely sort of frustration, particularly

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Speaker 1: a Scambia County, which is a county with a lot

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Speaker 1: of government workers. They didn't like some of the government cuts,

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Speaker 1: but there was also a growing resistance to the governor,

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Speaker 1: to Ron de Santis. In fact, one of the lead

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Speaker 1: Republican critics represents the Pensacola area, and this has been

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Speaker 1: the person that's been Alexandrade, who's who's been investigating what

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Speaker 1: is clearly some sort of questionable government relationship with the

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Speaker 1: first Lady Casey DeSantis's nonprofit Hope Florida. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of questions, a lot of hiding of money. Money's fungible,

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Speaker 1: but how do they end up with government money? And

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Speaker 1: then that government money was then laundered to be used

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Speaker 1: as again a political campaign on the marijuana initiative. There's

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Speaker 1: just a lot of questions on this, but here's the

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Speaker 1: big picture. The big picture is hed. It's pretty clear

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Speaker 1: that Florida Republicans are not afraid of RONDEA. Santis anymore.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure there's any Florida Republicans left that support

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Speaker 1: Ronda Santis in the elected leadership. As I had a

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Speaker 1: Florida Republican lobbyist tell me a couple a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. It's he said to me during the session. Boy,

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Speaker 1: it's cute. Ronda Santis still thinks he's governor. Look, he's

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Speaker 1: got the title, and he's got, you know, some power.

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Speaker 1: But he's got a legislature that is not interested in

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Speaker 1: helping him one iota. He has got, I think, a

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Speaker 1: Republican party that is ready to move on without him.

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Speaker 1: And I think Ronda Santis has found out what happens

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Speaker 1: when you again, and I said this before, when you

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Speaker 1: borrow somebody else's base, you're stuck with somebody else's base.

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Speaker 1: And he borrowed Donald Trump's base. He never established his

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Speaker 1: own base. He thought he did. He sort of mistook

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Speaker 1: popularity during COVID as popularity for him and his policy

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Speaker 1: was popular, but he wasn't. And the fact is he's

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Speaker 1: sort of always been an uncomfortable politician when it comes

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Speaker 1: to interacting with other people. It's he is, you know,

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Speaker 1: this is he doesn't seem like somebody that enjoys campaigning.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't seem like he's somebody that enjoys people. He's

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Speaker 1: always trying to He's always in a defensive crouch in

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Speaker 1: every interview, even when it's a friendly interview. So there's

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Speaker 1: just a possibility that he actually this was probably not

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Speaker 1: the career path he should have chosen running for elective politics.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps Casey DeSantis should have, maybe she should have run

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Speaker 1: the first time. But he is gonna if he is

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Speaker 1: hoping to clear the field for her to try to run.

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Speaker 1: First of all, he can't clear the gubernatorial field for that,

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Speaker 1: And now they're accumulating so many political enemies, and now

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Speaker 1: there's a bit of a pile on and he's feeling it.

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Speaker 1: He's feeling defensive about this. But I think that Ron

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Speaker 1: DeSantis is on his way to someday being a potential

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Speaker 1: footnote in Florida history, somebody who just starts fade away,

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Speaker 1: fade away, fade away. Now the irony to this is

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Speaker 1: even as Ronda Santist gets weaker, it's not like Florida

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Speaker 1: Democrats are benefiting. It's very similar to what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: in the national polls.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is unpopular. Donald Trump is seen as incompetent.

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Speaker 1: But it's not as if there's a lot of confidence

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Speaker 1: that the Democrats are ready to pivot, that the Democrats

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Speaker 1: have a message, and I think that that's probably going

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Speaker 1: to be for a while. You know, this is one

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Speaker 1: of those things where both things can be true, where

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Speaker 1: the public believes this Republican Party doesn't know what it's

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Speaker 1: doing and they don't trust the Democratic Party to do

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Speaker 1: any better. This is the time when you'd say that,

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Speaker 1: when you know, when someone like me wonders, when is

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Speaker 1: somebody going to be thinking about splitting the difference here,

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Speaker 1: trying to run as an independent or just not running

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Speaker 1: with a party label. It is notable to me that

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Speaker 1: the Senate Democratic leader in Florida, Jason Pizzo, decided to

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Speaker 1: leave the Democrat Party. He was the Senate Party leader

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Speaker 1: in the minority, and he just believes the Democratic Party

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Speaker 1: is dead. He may end up running for governors a

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Speaker 1: third party. We already have mister Morgan and Morgan John

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Speaker 1: Morgan hinting that he could run it's a third party,

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Speaker 1: but I could easily see him deciding to bankroll somebody

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Speaker 1: else running as a third party, or running on the

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Speaker 1: political party that he was trying to start. So just

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Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on, something worth watching. And

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Speaker 1: then finally, every time I think cable TV news can

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Speaker 1: give regular give us professional sort of news journalists a

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Speaker 1: bad name with some of the nonsense that happens, particularly

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Speaker 1: among primetime cable shows, apparently we still have nothing on

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Speaker 1: sports cable commentary. The absurdity and the ridiculousness of the

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Speaker 1: Shadeur Sanders commentary by people. Look, he's not the first

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Speaker 1: draft prospect to drop down. He's not the first draft

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Speaker 1: prospect to have teams be uncomfortable with the outs, with

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Speaker 1: other stuff that he may bring that has nothing to

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Speaker 1: do with his talents. He's not the first one. Plenty

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Speaker 1: of people have fallen before. What we're going to find

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Speaker 1: out is how badly does Shaudre Sanders want this? And

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Speaker 1: if he wants it badly, I'm rooting for him, but

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry for all the way the commentary went. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: the Sanders family brought a lot of this on themselves.

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Speaker 1: That may be, but there's a lot of sort of

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Speaker 1: cheap media antics, people trying to get clicks and all

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Speaker 1: of that stuff just by saying Sanders, Sanders, Sanders. And

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Speaker 1: then I say this a bit selfishly because the number

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Speaker 1: one overall pick is my boy cam Ward from the

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Speaker 1: University of Miami. And the lack of attention, the lack

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Speaker 1: of focus, the lack of anything having to do with him,

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Speaker 1: but instead following the circus that was the manufactured circus

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Speaker 1: of all things Sanders, I think it took away from

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Speaker 1: a lot of other athletes who got drafted. Not many

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Speaker 1: get to be drafted, right, less than three hundred get

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Speaker 1: to be drafted. It's an honor to see that done,

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Speaker 1: and it's too bad that more of these folks couldn't

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Speaker 1: have been celebrated. But instead everybody was obsessed and focused

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Speaker 1: with trying to see who could say the most outrageous

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Speaker 1: thing that would get social media buzz during the during

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Speaker 1: the thirty six hours that was the NFL Draft and

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Speaker 1: the Shadoor Sanders watch. All right, So with that, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna sneak in a quick break. You're gonna get Dan

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Speaker 1: Goldman first, and then a little tease of my ted

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Speaker 1: talk and a great conversation with Dave Wasserman. Enjoyed all right,

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Speaker 1: And joining me now is Dan Goldman. I first got

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Speaker 1: to know him when he was the first a legal

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Speaker 1: analyst for us on all things Trump, and then he

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Speaker 1: ended up being the lead council during the first Trump impeachment,

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Speaker 1: and then he cut out the middleman and decided to

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Speaker 1: run for Congress himself. It s Dan Goldman of the

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Speaker 1: tenth Congressional District of New York. A big part, big

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Speaker 1: chunk of his district is Manhattan, mister Goldman.

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Speaker 2: Good to see you, Great to see you, Chuck, pleasure

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Speaker 2: to be here. Hey.

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Speaker 1: Let me one of my favorite things that John Stewart

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Speaker 1: did in the early days of the you know, Stephen Colbert,

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Speaker 1: excuse me, in the early days of his Late Night

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Speaker 1: was get to know a congressional district. And New York

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Speaker 1: is such a uh you know, New York City is

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Speaker 1: such a series of you know, hundreds of neighborhoods. Tell

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Speaker 1: me your I even I don't know the specifics. I

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Speaker 1: know you're in Jerry Nadler's old district. I know that's

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Speaker 1: mostly that's got some Upper West Side, but everything got

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Speaker 1: redrawn a little bit. Tell me your district, you know this,

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Speaker 1: Give me the New York City highlights of your district. Well,

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Speaker 1: the simplest way to describe, by the way, I've got

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Speaker 1: a Za Bar's mug. There you go, and I'm drinking

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Speaker 1: out of right now, So you know, a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a little bit of local business love for your district.

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Speaker 2: Exactly what I say, pretty consistently is the easiest way

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Speaker 2: to describe my district is it is the coolest district

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Speaker 2: in the country. We have basically Manhattan below fourteenth Street,

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Speaker 2: so we have the West Village, we have the Greenwich Village,

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Speaker 2: we have East Village, Lower east Side, Chinatown, soho Tribeca

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Speaker 2: Financial District. And then about half of the district actually

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Speaker 2: is over in Brooklyn, so we have Dumbo, a lot

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Speaker 2: of Downtown Brooklyn. It sort of cuts right through downtown Brooklyn, Heights,

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Speaker 2: Park Slope, Brownstone, Brooklyn, and then it goes south even further,

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Speaker 2: all the way through Borough Park, Sunset Park, a little

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Speaker 2: bit into Bay Ridge and Red Hook, and then it

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Speaker 2: comes back up the coast. So it's a great diverse

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Speaker 2: district with lots of really spectacular neighborhoods, and it's fun

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Speaker 2: to represent.

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Speaker 1: If we just counted private equity and with Wall Street,

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Speaker 1: would you say you're the wealthiest district in the country.

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Speaker 2: No, I'm actually not. I think there is data on that.

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Speaker 2: My My district is very much of a barbelle. There

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Speaker 2: are interesting, very very wealthy, some highs and some lows.

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Speaker 1: Huh.

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Speaker 2: But there's a significant number of my constituents who you know,

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Speaker 2: are really struggling. And I've got, for example, thirty one

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Speaker 2: nische public housing developments in my district and have a

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Speaker 2: lot of neighborhoods that are underserved and have been I

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Speaker 2: think underrepresented by elected officials, and I spend most of

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Speaker 2: my time in the district in those neighborhoods.

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Speaker 1: Your district too big, and I know geographically it's not.

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Speaker 1: But you get what I'm saying When I say too big?

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Speaker 1: Do you feel as if you look I'm somebody who

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Speaker 1: thinks Congress is too small?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I know that's not a sexy topic, but I'm somebody

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Speaker 1: who thinks we double the size of the house. People

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Speaker 1: would feel a little more connected to government. You're actually

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Speaker 1: outlining an interesting district to me. In that boy, you've

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Speaker 1: got you've almost got conflicting communities of interest, and that's

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Speaker 1: that's not easy for a member of Congress. You've got

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Speaker 1: to pick and choose how you who you represent when

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Speaker 1: you represent, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: I you know, I think that that is a very

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Speaker 2: reason rational and probably common thought. I very intentionally don't

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Speaker 2: view it that way because I am someone who approaches

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Speaker 2: this as a true rising tides lifts all boats, and

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Speaker 2: that even when you talk to when you talk to

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Speaker 2: the real estate developers, et cetera, they are also very

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Speaker 2: much invested in New York City and in making New

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Speaker 2: York City a better, more affordable place to live, and

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Speaker 2: that's to their benefit as well. So I actually do

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Speaker 2: not think that working as a member in this district

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Speaker 2: has mutually exclusive interest because I think that if you

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Speaker 2: are working to help those that need perhaps a little

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Speaker 2: bit more of a boost, as long as you're not

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Speaker 2: trying to do that at the expense of other people.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's one of the things that the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party suffers from is view it as a zero

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Speaker 2: sum game where or not and right you're taking it

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Speaker 2: away from someone else. I don't think that's the right

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Speaker 2: way to look at it. It's not the way I

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Speaker 2: look at it, and I think because of that, we

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Speaker 2: can all collectively be working together to improve the city,

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Speaker 2: the country, and and everyone's lives.

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Speaker 1: Before I get into your wheelhouse, and frankly, what a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are going to want to hear your

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Speaker 1: take on, which is the current various legal situations, What

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Speaker 1: was the biggest what was the most surprising learning curve

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Speaker 1: that you had becoming a member of Congress.

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Speaker 2: That's a very good question. I took an unconventional path

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Speaker 2: to Congress because I was not an elected official beforehand.

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Speaker 2: I had and I had worked as a staff member

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Speaker 2: in Washington. Most members of Congress get to get to Washington,

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Speaker 2: get to Congress, they're very familiar with their districts and

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Speaker 2: all of the leaders and the community stakeholders and other officials,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, and they need to learn DC. I actually

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Speaker 2: kind of had it the reverse. I felt most comfortable

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Speaker 2: in a committee room because that's what I had done

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Speaker 2: as a staff member, and so so I spent a

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Speaker 2: lot of time. I hired a disproportionate amount of staff

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Speaker 2: in the district because I wanted to make sure that

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Speaker 2: I was putting proper resources in that in the district,

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Speaker 2: so that even if I have to be in DC,

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Speaker 2: I have staff everywhere, and so that the real steepest

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Speaker 2: learning curve for me was really understanding a lot of

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Speaker 2: the local politics, a lot of the local issues, some

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Speaker 2: of the sensitive issues. But a benefit to me from

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Speaker 2: not having been an elected official before is I came

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Speaker 2: in really with no enemies. I hadn't pissed anyone off

431
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 2: because I was not involved in a lot.

432
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 1: You weren't in the wrong team or endorsed the wrong

433
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: candidate in some zacks and some small New York City

434
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: council rates, you know, and the thousands of people that

435
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: serve on that thing exactly exactly.

436
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: And so I've I've liked that because I've been able

437
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: to be more of a convener and more of someone

438
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: who's a broker trying to get stuff done and trying

439
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 2: to navigate what is a difficult political environment in New

440
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: York City. And I've actually enjoyed that a lot more

441
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 2: than I would have expected before I took office.

442
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:24,880
Speaker 1: Let's move to your wheelhouse, and that is the sphrase

443
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: rule of law. What did it mean to you before

444
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: you worked on the impeachment and that you've been in

445
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: this sort of what we've been in a very politicized

446
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: legal environment. Let's just leave it at that, right, We

447
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 1: can go in deeper here, but before your experience with

448
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 1: the sort of the merging of politics and law and

449
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: legal issues in the heat of sort of the Trump era,

450
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: what did the rule of law mean to you then?

451
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: And what do you think it? You know, how much

452
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: should people view the rule of law today is more

453
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: about the rule of politics.

454
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 2: It's a great question. I spent ten years as a

455
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 2: prosecutor in the Southern District of New York, and the

456
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 2: rule of law was everything. And I say that because

457
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 2: in obviously, in the legal profession and litigation, you are

458
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 2: governed by laws, and everything you're doing is either interpreting

459
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: of the law or enforcing the law. But when you

460
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 2: are a prosecutor, you are truly driven by the law

461
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: and justice. You're not driven by beating your opponent. And

462
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 2: when you represent a client, you have to represent your

463
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 2: client's interest and you have to do everything you can

464
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 2: to beat your opponent. And so even though I was

465
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: in the middle of litigation and trials, etc. It was

466
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: really important to always keep in mind that at my

467
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 2: job was to justly equitably and properly enforce the law,

468
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 2: not necessarily beat defense counsel, and so that you're presented

469
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 2: with sort of a different quandary. There were many times

470
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: when I would go to the court and I would say,

471
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 2: you know, I would basically represent both sides. I would

472
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 2: because I felt obligated to make sure that the court

473
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: had all of the information, even if it was not

474
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 2: helpful to me. And so my view of the rule

475
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: of law was, you know, at this halcion level of

476
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 2: like this is everything. Our our criminal law and our

477
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: criminal law enforcement depends so much on the proper enforcement,

478
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: the just enforcement of laws. Our legal system. You know,

479
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: we don't have as many other countries do, a civil

480
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 2: code where every specific instance, every issue is has a

481
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 2: specific line item that decides it. What our system is

482
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 2: based on. And it's the same as you know, and

483
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: people complain about the tort system. We enforce our laws

484
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 2: in very many ways through private litigation and through holding

485
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 2: people accountable to the law, not necessarily by the government,

486
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: but by other litigants. There are benefits and costs to that,

487
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: but that's how it works. And so our entire economy,

488
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 2: our entire system of government, depends on a fidelity to

489
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: the law and depends on the rules based order, which

490
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 2: you hear a lot about, which really just goes down

491
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 2: to there are rules, there are laws they govern. There's

492
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: a neutral, independent arbiter of those and that's a judge,

493
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 2: and it's up to everybody to try to convince the judge.

494
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 2: But whatever the judge says is what happens.

495
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: You know, you bring up something, yeah, go ahead, finish,

496
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: go ahead, No no, no go, because I want to now.

497
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 2: Well, now you know, things that were so fundamental that

498
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 2: I would have never in a million years thought would

499
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: be called into question are being called into question due process,

500
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 2: the basic fundamentals of due process, which is you have

501
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 2: you are provided with notice of what you're charged or

502
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 2: alleged to have done, you are given an opportunity to

503
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 2: be heard, and a neutral arbiter decides it that. I mean,

504
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: that's the entire legal system. That's how it works, and

505
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: that is the very basis of the rule of law

506
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 2: that is now under attack.

507
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: I'd argue seven of our first ten six of our

508
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: first ten amendments are some basically are about this are

509
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: about giving people equal equal equal justice or.

510
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: Library on accounting. But it is by the mean.

511
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 1: Look, the fourth, the fifth, the sixth, the seventh, the eighth,

512
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: and the ninth all really have to do with your

513
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: legal protections.

514
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 2: That's right. And and your legal protections, which.

515
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: Yes, I think regardless of citizenship, by the way.

516
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: Correct, and it is important to remember that. And that's

517
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: you know, that's that's one of the issues that I

518
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: have right now with what's going on, is that it's

519
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: a very slippery slope if you start dividing up what

520
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: constitutional rights apply whether you're a citizen or a non citizen.

521
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 2: You know, what makes our country great is that we

522
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: have a set of laws that applies to everybody who's

523
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: in our country.

524
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: It makes us different every other There are a lot

525
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: of countries that have laws for citizens and then laws

526
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: for non citizens, right, and those are the countries that

527
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: people don't invest myne in. Those are the countries that

528
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: people don't travel to. Those are the country you know

529
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: you wouldn't you don't feel secures.

530
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 2: That's right, And it's it's a very dangerous, dangerous slippery

531
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: slope if you go down that that rabbit hole.

532
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: Are there now that you've been in this a term

533
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: and you've seen sort of this Essentially we're politicizing the law,

534
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: And one could argue that, you know, if laws are

535
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: being created by political figures, then there's always some politics

536
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: to the law. I think there's we could both agree

537
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: upon that. But are there some things that we never

538
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: codified that in the that Trump took advantage of that?

539
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 1: We may have to codify some things. Oh yeah, like

540
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 1: give give me some, give me some on the high

541
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: level that you think the next time Democrats have a

542
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: chance that hey, we've got to because I assume, right,

543
00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: this is my optimistic side. I I they have this

544
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: take that we're kind of sort of replaying the early

545
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: twentieth century Robert Barons, broligarchs, partisan media, in the late

546
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: nineteenth century partisan media. This time we're all trying to

547
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: There was a muckbreakers showed up, we had an independent journalist,

548
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: we gave you know, women got the right to vote

549
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: direct election as senators. People are talking about some reforms

550
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: to the democracy. So I am of the mindset that

551
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: the people are gonna we're going to create some new

552
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: laws and some new guardrails and some new frameworks because

553
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: we're not going to want to have this happen again.

554
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: Now we have to decide what that is right. We're

555
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: probably not. I think we're probably you know, one more,

556
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: you know, five more drops in the stock market before

557
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 1: you get some more consensus on this. But give me

558
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 1: a few that you think, Boy, we never codified this

559
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: norm Because you're talking about a lot of norms. What's

560
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: something we may not have to codify to protect ourselves

561
00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: from a future from a future elected leader that may

562
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: practice demagogic behavior.

563
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I think one thing Donald Trump has done

564
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: in both the first and now his second term is

565
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:13,720
Speaker 2: he's exposed the weakness of how much of our government

566
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 2: depends really on two things. One is this oath of office,

567
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 2: and that every elected official and up to and most

568
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 2: importantly the president, takes an oath to follow the Constitution

569
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 2: and in the president's case, to faithfully execute the laws.

570
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 2: And if you are unwilling or uninterested in following that

571
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 2: oath to take an independent responsibility to view what the

572
00:34:55,520 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 2: Constitution says and follow it, you are already in unprecedented land.

573
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 2: I don't think there's ever Maybe you're more of a

574
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: historian than I know, but in recent history.

575
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: No, you have to go back to Andrew Jackson, right,

576
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: you just said, you know, let him enforce it, right,

577
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 1: you know, they're back in the and the day, and

578
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: that's what I was going to say. But we're all bracing.

579
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: We're all bracing for a moment where, you know, I'm

580
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 1: of the mindset he hasn't technically violated a Supreme Court

581
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: order yet, but it feels like it's an inevitable. The

582
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 1: court's going to Supreme Court is going to rule one way,

583
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: and he's going to attempt to behave another. We just

584
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: don't know what that looks like yet.

585
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: And and so that that is part of it, right,

586
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 2: is that is a perfect example following you know, court

587
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: orders which we never questioned before and now seems to

588
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: be something at issue.

589
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 1: I don't know how would you codify that though?

590
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 2: I mean, right, no, I mean that one you can't

591
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 2: really and but the next one, you know that I

592
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: think I spend a lot of time thinking about, just

593
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 2: because I spent ten years in the Department of Justice. Right.

594
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 2: The idea that a president does not weigh in on

595
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 2: any individual prosecutions was a norm created after Watergate especially,

596
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: but even prior to that.

597
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: That was just accepted by the way we in the

598
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 1: media enforced it. When Barack Obama rolled his eyes at

599
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 1: the emails with Hillary Clinton. It was we in the

600
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: press that said, hey, you're putting your finger are you

601
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 1: putting your finger on the scale? Well, your Justice Department's

602
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: doing that. He backed off, right, right, George w They

603
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: you know, we saw this Bill Clinton. All of them

604
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: were tempted to, especially those that are those presidents that

605
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 1: have legal degrees, right, they believe, well, I got to,

606
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: you know, let me tell you how I would handle this.

607
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 1: And they've gotten their handslapped. And they, you know, before

608
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: Trump they accepted it.

609
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 2: Right, And you know there was and those were just

610
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 2: sort of veiled references, right. I mean Trump just issued.

611
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 1: An executive am I innocent ones? Yes, ones that frankly

612
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: I thought were within reason. Hey I'm curious of his opinion, right,

613
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: one of those that actually I think it was I

614
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: think the public deserved to know what the president thought.

615
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 2: I think there's a good argument to support that. And

616
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 2: now Donald Trump is literally signing executive orders directing his

617
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 2: attorney general to criminally investigate two people whose crime appears

618
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 2: to be that they spoke out against what an opposition

619
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 2: and disagreement with what Donald Trump said. Now that is

620
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 2: something that is not codified, right, It's not clear where

621
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 2: the division of politics and criminal law enforcement lies. Yes,

622
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 2: the Attorney General is of course appointed by the president

623
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,760
Speaker 2: as part of the cabinet, but the president is supposed

624
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 2: to be walled off under the norms the Department of

625
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 2: Justice many individual prosecutions. He's obviously just blown that out

626
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 2: of the water in an egregious way. But there are

627
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 2: also norms and protocols for who in the White House

628
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: can talk to whom in the Department of Justice. And

629
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 2: there's all. There was literally a whole sort of infrastructure

630
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,720
Speaker 2: built around these norms that Donald Trump has just blown

631
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: out of the water. And so that is one thing

632
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: I think that needs to be codified. Enforcement of congressional

633
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 2: subpoenas there was and traditionally has been a because the

634
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 2: executive branch and the president at the top takes an

635
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:47,959
Speaker 2: oath to follow the Constitution and to faithfully execute the laws.

636
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 2: And part of following the Constitution is recognizing the coequal

637
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,879
Speaker 2: branches of government and acknowledging and appreciating and respecting what

638
00:38:56,040 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: Congress's oversight interest is and it's responsible and therefore, even

639
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 2: if you are negotiating what they call the accommodations process,

640
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 2: as subpoenas from the Congress to the executive branch, there

641
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 2: is always an expectation that you comply with those subpoenas.

642
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 2: When Donald Trump said in twenty nineteen, I'm going to

643
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: defy all the subpoenas, he blew that norm out of

644
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 2: the water. So we are now going to have to

645
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 2: figure out a much different and better and codified and

646
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 2: more robust enforcement mechanism to allow congressional subpoenas to once

647
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,800
Speaker 2: again have some heft that they had just by norms before.

648
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 2: But clearly that's not something.

649
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: Could you use the fact that if you're on a

650
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 1: tax if you're salaried, you're a taxpayer funded salary, you

651
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: know you're literally it is you literally will get thrown

652
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: into jail if you don't abide it. Subpoena like strengthening

653
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: that aspect of it, because the real outrage to me

654
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 1: is just that, wait a minute, we're paying your salary

655
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: and the legislative branch is issued a subpoena you work

656
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 1: for the executive branch, and you're just going to ignore it,

657
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 1: like you just like that. That feels like that shouldn't

658
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,439
Speaker 1: be you shouldn't have to go to court to then

659
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,439
Speaker 1: decide whether the US Marshals or the Capitol Police come

660
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: over and either escort you to testify or escort you

661
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 1: to jail. It should be you shouldn't have to do

662
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:30,240
Speaker 1: that step.

663
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that fair. You can't do that right now. There's

664
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 2: no mechanism where you could do that. There used to

665
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:42,399
Speaker 2: be one hundred years ago, something called inherent contempt, which,

666
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: by the way, we looked into when I was doing

667
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 2: the impeachment investigation and because the administration was just defying

668
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 2: all of the impeachment subpoenas. But there's no mechanism to

669
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 2: do that right now, and so we need to implement

670
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: a much more robust mechanism to enforce congressional subpoenas, to

671
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: make them meaningful again. And so that's you know, that's

672
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 2: another example. There are many more, but yeah, this is

673
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 2: something that a lot of us are thinking about.

674
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: Let me dig in on justice a minute. I why

675
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 1: is it part of the executive branch? And I say

676
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 1: this because I wonder if if we're just we're just

677
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 1: trapped in sort of this where here we are the

678
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 1: chief law enforcement officer only belongs to one branch of government,

679
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: which seems odd to me. Right, is should we set

680
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 1: up Justice like we have the Federal Reserve, which is

681
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 1: it's certainly presidential appointed, right, But and we attempted to

682
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: do this with the FBI, and I think unfortunately we've

683
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 1: let this slip where all of a sudden, now FBI

684
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 1: directors are expected to just resign when there's a new president.

685
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 1: And I'm like, whoa, who WHOA. I thought CIA, FBI, FED, Like,

686
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:05,319
Speaker 1: I always accepted the idea there were certain agencies that

687
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 1: were on five year terms just for that reason. Like,

688
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: let me outline an idea I've spitballed here about Justice,

689
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 1: that the top six positions at Justice can't all be

690
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: have been appointed by the same president. That you somehow

691
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: figure out staggered terms for the various deputy ags and

692
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 1: the ag itself. Maybe it's five year terms and each

693
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:35,720
Speaker 1: year another five years, so that there's always some form

694
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: of at least while not always bipartisan, but that you

695
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 1: have multiple presidencies, just like with the FED. Right, the

696
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 1: FED governors have been appointed by multiple presidents, so you

697
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: do have contrasting points of view. You know, Should we

698
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 1: rethink how the Department of Justice is politically populated?

699
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 2: Yes, I would the way I would think more about

700
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 2: doing it is rather than sort of by appointment. Is

701
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 2: separating the criminal division and the civil division. One of

702
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 2: the things that we have to rep the Department of

703
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 2: Justice is not just the criminal justice system. There's a

704
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 2: tremendous amount of both affirmative and defensive civil litigation of

705
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: anyone in.

706
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: This which is where there may be more corruption. Frankly

707
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 1: there could be.

708
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 2: But there's also that is especially on the affirmative civil cases.

709
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: In the civil areas, that is where the policy prerogatives

710
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 2: of a president matter, probably even more than on the

711
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: criminal side. And so you have to balance the fact

712
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 2: that there is policy that the Department of Justice is implementing.

713
00:43:54,920 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 2: It is not just individual criminal prosecutions and so and

714
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 2: they're different.

715
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: You know, like take take the idea of when you

716
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: have when the Justice Department comes in to oversee a

717
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: police department and what should trigger that kind of oversight.

718
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: I accept the idea that there may be an ideological

719
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,240
Speaker 1: disagreement over when that should be triggered, when federal government

720
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 1: should have oversight. So you know, I accept the premise

721
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 1: that maybe you have some of that can change via administration.

722
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, but what else also changes? And this is typical

723
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 2: is Republican administrations do a lot fewer fraud investigations, a

724
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 2: lot of feuper white collar fraud. I mean Donald Trump

725
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 2: has literally effectively nullified the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act overtly

726
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:54,760
Speaker 2: and openly, and Republican administrations focus, you know, much more

727
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 2: on drugs and gangs and violent crime. That's where the

728
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 2: traditional only because there's a limited amount of resources. So

729
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 2: what are you going to prioritize?

730
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 1: Right?

731
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 2: I think most people would agree all of that is

732
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 2: important to do so, but that's a policy priority, and

733
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: so how do you balance the fact that a president

734
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 2: gets to implement policy priorities for the enforcement of our laws. So,

735
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 2: and that's even more so I think in the civil division,

736
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,800
Speaker 2: where any affirmative case is really much more a focus

737
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 2: of policy because you people's lives and liberty are not

738
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 2: at stake, right, You're not rarely in a lot of cases,

739
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 2: you're not even suing individuals, right, It's much more larger

740
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: issues related to you know, whether it be civil rights

741
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 2: as you say, police departments, or environmental justice, environmental issues

742
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 2: against companies. There's a lot more sort of business oriented

743
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 2: o litigation that is much more driven by policy than

744
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 2: any individual prosecution. And what you really have to avoid

745
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:20,919
Speaker 2: is using the threat or the actuality of imprisonment as

746
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 2: a political tool. That's the stuff of Banana republics. That's

747
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 2: what our State Department goes around the world telling countries

748
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 2: that we will not support them if they continue to

749
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: prosecute their political opponents. I mean Ukraine is a great

750
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:42,879
Speaker 2: example of that. That when Joe Biden said you better

751
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 2: fire the prosecutor general or we're not going to support

752
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 2: a billion dollar loan, it was because that prosecutor general

753
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: was corrupt and was prosecuting political adversaries and letting his

754
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 2: political allies go. We literally threatened Ukraine and said we're

755
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 2: not going to support this imf loan if this corrupt

756
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 2: prosecutor continues in his job only prosecuting political adversaries. I mean,

757
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 2: imagine that was ten years ago, and here we are.

758
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: You know, well, we know what Trump wants to do.

759
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 1: But then how do you and look, this was a

760
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 1: so defend Garland and prosecuting of Trump Garland. Is that

761
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: what you I mean? I know, you get my point,

762
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: Like I think this has been the slippery slope that

763
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: we're all. You just brought up the issue of prosecuting

764
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 1: your opponents. And I think Donald Trump very effectively was

765
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: able to make himself a political martyr right during this,

766
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 1: during during his high during his presidential hiatus, his exile,

767
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. And I do think

768
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: there were some people in where you're where you just

769
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 1: described about how we few other countries where and I

770
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: think this was a dilemma. I guess looking back now

771
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: over the of the four years of Trump and exile,

772
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 1: was there a better way to have tried to hold

773
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 1: him to account than what was attempted? Yeah, impeachment, Well

774
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,919
Speaker 1: that's that's yes. Okay, it's funny you say, I look

775
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: at it that our founders knew using the regular legal

776
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 1: system for a president or a high or a powerful

777
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 1: political figure was going to be complicated. Right. The impeachment process, frankly,

778
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 1: is a genius idea if everybody agrees that that's the

779
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: proper venue to do this. And I it's funny you

780
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 1: bring that up, because I always came down like, look,

781
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 1: he was impeached twice and he got off twice. I

782
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 1: don't know how you use the regular legal system after

783
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 1: that and hope to be successful.

784
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 2: Well, I yeah, I mean it's sort of a back.

785
00:48:58,160 --> 00:48:59,879
Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's a circular way of looking

786
00:48:59,920 --> 00:49:04,319
Speaker 2: at it, which is that the impeachment process has been

787
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 2: so corrupted by politics. And one of the other things

788
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 2: that the founders were very concerned about was extreme partisan shit.

789
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 1: They knew, I mean, look, you read the Alex said, look,

790
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 1: and I know you did. I obsessed over all things

791
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: Hamilton when it comes to the judges and impeachment in general.

792
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 1: And they knew it would be politicized even then. I mean,

793
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 1: to their credit, they saw that it would be politicized.

794
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 1: They knew that impeachment could be factionalized, but they still

795
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: thought it was a better outcome, a better venue than

796
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: a traditional courter law. Right.

797
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 2: Look, you know, we have not encountered a situation like

798
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:51,439
Speaker 2: that where there were I mean, at a minimum, there

799
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 2: were there was conduct and actions done by a president

800
00:49:55,520 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 2: of the United States that warranted criminal investigation. And look,

801
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 2: long before Donald Trump even announced he was running again

802
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 2: for president, I went on I may have been on

803
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 2: your show at the time. I certainly went on TV

804
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 2: and said, this is his plan. He is going to

805
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 2: say that they're trying to keep me off the ballot.

806
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 2: It's election interference. That's why they're coming after me even

807
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 2: though he's not a candidate. He's a private citizen before

808
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 2: he announced that he was running. And like anybody else,

809
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 2: you know, if if a grand jury of you know,

810
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 2: finds that there's probable cause to indict, and a jury,

811
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 2: unanimous jury of twelve convicts, it's not that easy to

812
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 2: do that beyond a reasonable doubt with admissible evidence. And

813
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,760
Speaker 2: you know, this is the foundation of our legal system,

814
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: and we rely on that jury system, and it should

815
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: be able to apply to a former president. The question

816
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 2: then becomes, all right, what do you do with a

817
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 2: candidate for president, a candidate for office. Well, we deal

818
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 2: with that all the time. I mean, there have been

819
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:09,760
Speaker 2: many corruption cases that of elected officials, members of Congress

820
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 2: and others. They're candidates for office and they are charged,

821
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 2: and we have to make sure that our public officials

822
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: are also following the law. What Merrick Garland did is

823
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: while Donald Trump was a private citizen, he had the

824
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 2: Justice Department investigate. And I think, frankly, the primary reason

825
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:33,439
Speaker 2: why Merrick Garland was nominated by Joe Biden is that

826
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 2: he was completely a political He had been a judge.

827
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 1: I loved the premise right now, in hindsight, it turns

828
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: out that when you've been a federal judge for as

829
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 1: long as Merrick Garland has, you're probably not qualified to

830
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: run the Justice Department. And I'm sorry to say that.

831
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: I mean he was I think now we look back

832
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 1: him sitting on his hands for two years essentially allowed

833
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: Trump to use the campaign, the candidate playbook on him.

834
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 1: I mean just look, I mean Trump, they knew that

835
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 1: they were going to trigger a special counsel, which is

836
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 1: why he announced as absurdly early as he did for president,

837
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:16,800
Speaker 1: was to force Garland's hand. Now, of course, had had

838
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: Garland decided to investigate Trump before uh Liz Cheney did,

839
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:25,240
Speaker 1: we might be in a different situation.

840
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think that is a very legitimate criticism

841
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 2: and one that I've I've made as well. But we

842
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 2: do have a special counsel system, and I think what

843
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 2: is that Not only has impeachment broken down, I think

844
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 2: as a form of accountability because it is near impossible. Well,

845
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 2: if Donald Trump is not going to get convicted by

846
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 2: I was.

847
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 1: Just going to say the impeachment process is over right,

848
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: like this is the you look, I thought the Ukraine

849
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 1: case was wrong, but let's be honest. January sixth was stronger, okay,

850
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: January sixth, and when right? I mean, you know what

851
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 1: else is there? And by the way, your case on

852
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 1: Ukraine continues to get stronger the way, I'm sorry, the

853
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 1: way he is uh strong arming Ukraine again with this,

854
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 1: with this capitulation to Russia. I mean, my goodness, Uh,

855
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 1: there's a part of me that believes, you know, I don't.

856
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: I'm not going to sit here and go down there.

857
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: He is he an asset or not, It doesn't matter

858
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: if he's an asset. He's certainly his behavior is similar

859
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 1: to one that would be an asset. I actually think

860
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 1: he just views Zelensky as a political opponent, and so

861
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 1: Zelensky bad in his mind, and he's almost punishing Zelensky

862
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 1: for endorsing Biden in his head. Whether that's whether that's

863
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:54,720
Speaker 1: actually what he did, you get my point?

864
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think it's deeper than that, because

865
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:05,360
Speaker 2: I think that he has an unexplained infatuation and obsession

866
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 2: with Vladimir Putin. And I think what we're seeing right

867
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:15,240
Speaker 2: now is that Vladimir Putin is the model of leader

868
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump would like to be. And I thought

869
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 2: a lot about this as you can imagine. I bet

870
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:29,480
Speaker 2: it's like, why would he say that, Why would he

871
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:34,439
Speaker 2: trust Vladimir Putin's word over our entire intelligence communities were,

872
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 2: which he did in twenty eighteen when he said he

873
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 2: believed that Putin didn't interfere in the election, even though

874
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 2: our intelligence community had really unequivocally for the intelligence community

875
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 2: said that he had. They had and it didn't add up, right,

876
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 2: And so well, was it Trump Tower Russia?

877
00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: Right?

878
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 2: You know, maybe there is a little bit of that.

879
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 2: I don't know, is it the you know, asked being

880
00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 2: an asset, or they are holding something over or him.

881
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 2: All of that's possible, but there's been no evidence of

882
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 2: that that's ever been brought public. And I think what

883
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 2: ultimately is going on is that Donald Trump wishes he

884
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 2: had the power and the government structure that Vladimir Putin does.

885
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 2: And that's why he's got Elon Musk and the other oligarchs,

886
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 2: one of.

887
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: His own oligarchs, right, he sees how effective a oligarchs.

888
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 1: And by the way, it's not that, Look you want

889
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,359
Speaker 1: to we want to talk about the McKinley years. I mean,

890
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 1: you know, he aligned himself with business interests at a

891
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,839
Speaker 1: time when the industrialists were the most powerful people in America.

892
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,840
Speaker 1: So it's actually not even a new thing for America.

893
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 1: It's just a new thing for our generation.

894
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:50,839
Speaker 2: Well, and what's really fascinating about it is how he's

895
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 2: been able to do that while also maintaining a very

896
00:55:56,120 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 2: populist approach. Which are you, Dan?

897
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:03,879
Speaker 1: I never thought. I always used to joke, Well, nobody

898
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 1: from New York City can get elected president because nobody

899
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: of the rest of America is going to believe a

900
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 1: rich guy from New York City knows what it's like

901
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:13,920
Speaker 1: for my dad to who grew up in Waterloo, Iowa,

902
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 1: and he was one of those who think those people

903
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: think they're better than us. Screw those New Yorkers, I

904
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:22,759
Speaker 1: will the fact that my dad's old hometown as big

905
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 1: at Trump supporters as they are is one of those

906
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 1: incredible sort of developments that you you know, it is

907
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 1: the greatest trick, the devil pulled type of type of answer.

908
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 2: I don't know what else. I you know, you when

909
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 2: you really when history books look at this, the fact

910
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 2: that he won this most recent election, and even more

911
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 2: so that he has corralled and usurped control total control

912
00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 2: of his party in a way that no president has

913
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 2: an modern times.

914
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 1: Maybe FDR maybe, and even he had some even he

915
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 1: had some detractors at his own party, but I think

916
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 1: that's really not since FDR had this kind of path now.

917
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 2: And to such an extent, you know where that I

918
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 2: see every day, the Republican majority in the House has

919
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 2: completely yielded and turned over all of their own authority

920
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump. I mean, they've gone even so far

921
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 2: as to use procedural tricks to prevent Congress from voting

922
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 2: on the tariffs because they are the leadership is so

923
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 2: in cahoots with Trump.

924
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: That they don't you're not allowed to. I mean, but

925
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:47,920
Speaker 1: I'm going to, you know, I'm I've my listeners are

926
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: pretty sophisticated, so they know what a discharge petition is.

927
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 1: And I had Don Bacon on early about about two

928
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 1: or three weeks ago, and I had asked him about

929
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 1: the idea that, hey, you know, because he's one of

930
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 1: the Republicans that introduced to bill to try to essentially

931
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 1: take away Trump's tariff power here to declare the emergency over.

932
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 1: And I asked him and he says, well, you know,

933
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 1: I don't know if we're going to get but now

934
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 1: I believe within him announcing, you know, launching that bill.

935
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 1: Correct me if I'm wrong, Congress has since you're not

936
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: allowed to use that discharged position on tariffs. Correct.

937
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 2: I think what happened at least what I'm I'm not

938
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 2: aware of that what I.

939
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: Or this Congress whatever it is like your hands are

940
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 1: tied for this Congress for some reason.

941
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 2: Right as I understand. What happened is Trump's ten percent

942
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 2: tariffs are based on an invocation of emergency powers under AIPA,

943
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 2: the International Emergency Powers Actor.

944
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 1: Let's just say, very questionable. This very questionable legal authority there,

945
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 1: which I am curious as the state of California I

946
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: think is going to sue on this, and I'm curious

947
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: to see if you think they have a case.

948
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, very questionable. But in that law, and it

949
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 2: is a law, Congress, can someone can present a or

950
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:15,120
Speaker 2: put a bill on the floor that must be voted

951
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 2: on within fifteen calendar days to either affirm or reject

952
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 2: that invocation of emergency powers, which effectively would affirm or

953
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:27,520
Speaker 2: reject the tariffs.

954
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 1: Right, and they don't want to vote on that.

955
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,360
Speaker 2: My colleague in New York, Greg Meeks, the ranking member

956
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 2: of the Foreign Affairs Committee submitted that that privileged motion

957
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 2: is what it's called. And what Mike Johnson did and

958
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 2: the Republican majority did is because it was fifteen calendar

959
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:49,760
Speaker 2: days before it had to come up, they put in

960
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 2: one of the procedural rule motions that the clock will

961
00:59:55,400 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 2: be stopped on that specific resolution if that rule passes.

962
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 1: Oh wait a minute, so we literally this has always

963
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: been a running joke. I used to say, you know,

964
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:10,680
Speaker 1: because the US Senate regularly has done this where they

965
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 1: can declare they could essentially declare what day of the

966
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,400
Speaker 1: week it is at any time they want to. So

967
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 1: this is Congress essentially stopping the passage of time.

968
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:25,440
Speaker 2: Yep, just for that one bill, one that one resolution.

969
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 1: So that if you can't laugh at it, it would

970
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 1: just make you shake your head. I mean, it's the

971
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 1: absurdity of that is amazing.

972
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 2: I mean, right, So it's built into the law that

973
01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: Congress has oversight over an invocation of this emergency power.

974
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:39,440
Speaker 1: So what day of the week is it? By the way,

975
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 1: when that somebody says that billing up, Sorry, that's April tenth.

976
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 1: We're still on April tenth or whatever.

977
01:00:45,520 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 2: Op on the eighth calendar day or whatever it was,

978
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,960
Speaker 2: it's no longer moving forward, and so it will never

979
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 2: be right to be voted on them. So they're literally saying,

980
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 2: I'm going to take away Congress's statutory power to weigh

981
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 2: in on the tariffs to avoid the vote. Now, what's

982
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 2: interesting about it is, of course, if all of the

983
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 2: Republicans actually supported the tariffs, it wouldn't be a big issue.

984
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 3: Sure, you'd vote on it to be over, But he

985
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 3: knows that he would lose the vote, right, And so

986
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 3: because he wants to control what happens in Congress and

987
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 3: he wants to yield all power to Donald Trump, they

988
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 3: have literally just taken away all of their own power.

989
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 2: And they're no longer an equal, coequal branch of government.

990
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:35,959
Speaker 1: So here you are within only a handful of votes

991
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 1: of the majority, and you and there, I mean, what

992
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 1: can you do in the minority right now other than

993
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 1: sound rhetorical alarms?

994
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 2: Right, Well, if your listeners know what a discharge petition is,

995
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 2: then they understand how little power you have in the minority,

996
01:01:57,120 --> 01:02:00,640
Speaker 2: right And so we don't. Unfortunately, we don't have some power.

997
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 2: As you point out, we cannot even put a discharge

998
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 2: petition without Republican support. We have no control over what

999
01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 2: bills go on the floor and are voted on, so

1000
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:18,920
Speaker 2: our options are are limited. But because it's such a

1001
01:02:18,920 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 2: slim majority, and because there are so many Republican members

1002
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 2: in purple districts, in very very close districts, the pressure,

1003
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 2: the rhetorical pressure as you described it, but the pressure

1004
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:38,440
Speaker 2: that we and the American people can put on those

1005
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 2: members of Congress can and I think are having an

1006
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:49,960
Speaker 2: impact on how they will vote on legislation that is

1007
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 2: designed to gut our federal government, to eliminate Medicaid, to

1008
01:02:55,840 --> 01:03:01,680
Speaker 2: destroy social Security, so many government programs, and they know,

1009
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,640
Speaker 2: and I have four of them in New York right

1010
01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:09,280
Speaker 2: around my district, know that if they vote to cut Medicaid,

1011
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 2: a third of their constituents are receive their healthcare through Medicaid,

1012
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:18,000
Speaker 2: they are going to lose their election. And so what

1013
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 2: our job is and what we're focused on right now

1014
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,520
Speaker 2: is first of all, explaining that what Elon Musk is

1015
01:03:24,560 --> 01:03:26,680
Speaker 2: doing has nothing to do with waste, fraud, and abuse.

1016
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:30,760
Speaker 2: It is arbitrary use of an algorithm to put keywords

1017
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 2: in and get rid of government programs that they don't like.

1018
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:36,640
Speaker 2: You have to actually know what the programs do in

1019
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 2: order to determine if they're wasteful or fraudulent. And the

1020
01:03:40,960 --> 01:03:44,080
Speaker 2: second thing, though, is to make sure that a lot

1021
01:03:44,160 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 2: of probably not listeners of yours, low information voters who

1022
01:03:49,680 --> 01:03:53,440
Speaker 2: were swindled effectively by Donald Trump into believing that he

1023
01:03:53,520 --> 01:03:55,880
Speaker 2: was going to lower costs and he was going to

1024
01:03:56,320 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 2: reduce inflation because he said he was, and he's done

1025
01:03:59,360 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 2: the exact opposite. We have to make sure they understand

1026
01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 2: what's at stake right now and what the Republicans are

1027
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 2: trying to do. And so people like you know, Mike

1028
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 2: Lawler and Nick Loloda and Nicole Malliotakas and Andrew Barberino

1029
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:20,080
Speaker 2: in New York City or the environs realize that there

1030
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 2: will be an outrage if they do put healthcare for

1031
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 2: a third of their constituents and they will lose their

1032
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 2: election next And so you.

1033
01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 1: Can play is is essentially talking to those swing district Republicans.

1034
01:04:40,400 --> 01:04:43,800
Speaker 2: Yes, I think that's right now. I think broadly talking

1035
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:47,200
Speaker 2: to Republicans is actually one of the things that we

1036
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:50,440
Speaker 2: have to figure out how to do. I say this

1037
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 2: a lot. My my comms director emails a bunch of

1038
01:04:55,000 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 2: Fox News shows every week to ask if I can

1039
01:04:57,680 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 2: come on, and they don't let me come on because

1040
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 2: I think they don't want to hear, you know, the

1041
01:05:04,640 --> 01:05:06,280
Speaker 2: other side of things, because there's I.

1042
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,360
Speaker 1: Think they're afraid of a lawyer who knows, who knows

1043
01:05:08,400 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 1: how to answer questions.

1044
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 4: Right.

1045
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:14,640
Speaker 2: Maybe, and so, but we have to figure out a

1046
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 2: way so that we can talk directly to people so

1047
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 2: they understand what's at state.

1048
01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:21,480
Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here in a couple

1049
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:28,360
Speaker 1: of party Democratic party issues, finish this sentence. Democrats want

1050
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 1: to win in twenty twenty six, they should be talking

1051
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 1: about what.

1052
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 2: Well, the obvious thing is the economy. I think there's

1053
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:41,400
Speaker 2: recent statistics data that I've seen that somewhere in the

1054
01:05:41,480 --> 01:05:46,600
Speaker 2: seventies percentage of Donald Trump voters had as their number

1055
01:05:46,600 --> 01:05:50,920
Speaker 2: one issue the economy. You know, it's the old Carvil's saying,

1056
01:05:50,960 --> 01:05:54,720
Speaker 2: it's the economy stupid. I'm not sure it's always just that,

1057
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:57,760
Speaker 2: But I do think what we learned from this last

1058
01:05:57,800 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 2: election is that people can't worry about larger, broader issues

1059
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 2: of democracy or rule of law if they're worried about

1060
01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:10,960
Speaker 2: paying their rent and paying health care.

1061
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:13,040
Speaker 1: And it doesn't mean they don't care about the democracy.

1062
01:06:13,080 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 1: I've always said, exactly, you and I have the luxury

1063
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:20,440
Speaker 1: to care about the democracy. Exactly, they don't always right.

1064
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 2: That's right, and so there's I think there's no question

1065
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:28,800
Speaker 2: that that is going to be a central issue, and

1066
01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:31,600
Speaker 2: it is the one I think that resonates the most

1067
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:35,120
Speaker 2: right now when we talk about how they are the

1068
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:40,240
Speaker 2: Trump is trying to gut our critical government services and

1069
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 2: programs to pave the way for tax cuts for billionaires.

1070
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:49,000
Speaker 2: That message really resonates. Okay, and that's probably going to resonate,

1071
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 2: but I agree with you, Chuck, that we cannot just

1072
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,920
Speaker 2: forego talking about some of these broader issues that are

1073
01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 2: truly structural in nature to our country, to our basic

1074
01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:04,720
Speaker 2: way of living, to our fundamental values, and that even

1075
01:07:04,760 --> 01:07:08,240
Speaker 2: if that's not the number one message, that it has

1076
01:07:08,320 --> 01:07:12,160
Speaker 2: to be part of the conversation because at some point,

1077
01:07:12,320 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 2: if Donald Trump keeps eviscerating the rule of law, which

1078
01:07:17,840 --> 01:07:21,560
Speaker 2: is doing, by the way, by just ending government grants,

1079
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:25,280
Speaker 2: canceling collective bargaining agreements.

1080
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:26,960
Speaker 1: Well he's got to lose all these things in court.

1081
01:07:27,480 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the thing. I do believe. The irony

1082
01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:34,440
Speaker 1: to doze is it will cost the taxpayers more money

1083
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:41,080
Speaker 1: in bankrupt companies that sue the government for contract breach,

1084
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 1: you know, all those things, and then you will have

1085
01:07:43,800 --> 01:07:46,400
Speaker 1: pain and suffering. I mean, I do. I'm convinced that

1086
01:07:46,440 --> 01:07:50,000
Speaker 1: over the next ten years that the amount of lawsuits

1087
01:07:50,000 --> 01:07:53,320
Speaker 1: that pile up due to aid canceled contracts that were

1088
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 1: illegally canceled things like that that doze will end up

1089
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 1: being costing taxpayers money, not saving them.

1090
01:08:00,240 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 2: But we'll see you very well. May be right, but

1091
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 2: imagine a scenario where somehow it's not overturned. And now

1092
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:10,919
Speaker 2: you have you have companies and you talk about breach

1093
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:14,640
Speaker 2: of contract. How much of our economy is dependent on

1094
01:08:15,640 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 2: the enforcement of contracts. Now we just we just take

1095
01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 2: that as accepted totally.

1096
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:26,280
Speaker 1: Whether you're a employd right and he's wiping this stuff away.

1097
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:29,280
Speaker 2: I mean, imagine if you know some company was like, ooh,

1098
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 2: you know this deal I entered into isn't turning out

1099
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 2: so well, I'm just not gonna follow. So, you know,

1100
01:08:37,080 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 2: I do think there are broader things, but ultimately the

1101
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 2: economy is all right.

1102
01:08:40,360 --> 01:08:42,080
Speaker 1: I know, I gotta get you out of here, but

1103
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:43,559
Speaker 1: I gotta ask you this because I have a lot

1104
01:08:43,560 --> 01:08:46,920
Speaker 1: of constituents that live in your district. Who tell me,

1105
01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:49,559
Speaker 1: are you really gonna Are you really telling me my

1106
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 1: choice for mayor is going to be Andrew Cuomo, who

1107
01:08:53,520 --> 01:08:57,439
Speaker 1: I think has disgraced himself, and Eric Adams, who I

1108
01:08:57,479 --> 01:09:00,640
Speaker 1: also believe has disgraced himself. I know that this is

1109
01:09:00,640 --> 01:09:03,759
Speaker 1: politically tough, that it's your party and all this stuff,

1110
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,880
Speaker 1: but do you understand why many many constituents of yours

1111
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:13,519
Speaker 1: think there's got to be something better than Cuomo and

1112
01:09:13,560 --> 01:09:16,160
Speaker 1: Adams as the choice for New York City mayor.

1113
01:09:17,240 --> 01:09:23,320
Speaker 2: I think it is a very important message that we

1114
01:09:23,400 --> 01:09:25,800
Speaker 2: all need to realize, both in New York City and

1115
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:29,559
Speaker 2: across the country. And it's part of the reason why

1116
01:09:29,600 --> 01:09:34,720
Speaker 2: I endorsed State Senator Zelgermirie back in February, because we

1117
01:09:34,880 --> 01:09:40,479
Speaker 2: really do need a new generation of democratic elected official,

1118
01:09:40,880 --> 01:09:45,879
Speaker 2: of people who understand that business is not as usual

1119
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:50,920
Speaker 2: right now. You know, President Biden I think should go

1120
01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 2: down as a one of the most consequential presidents because

1121
01:09:56,200 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 2: of all of the legislation passed in his first two years.

1122
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:05,800
Speaker 2: But he was operating in a world that no longer exists,

1123
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:11,880
Speaker 2: and so it's really time, I think for us to

1124
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:16,719
Speaker 2: move forward rather than continually reaching back into the past.

1125
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:26,559
Speaker 2: Think for people and ideas that are stale, and it is.

1126
01:10:27,040 --> 01:10:32,320
Speaker 2: I think this is a good example of how sometimes,

1127
01:10:32,680 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 2: you know, politics does not bring out the best in

1128
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:35,599
Speaker 2: our country.

1129
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 1: Now, what I hate to see happening is that running

1130
01:10:39,400 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 1: for office is becoming a way to rescue your reputation,

1131
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:48,280
Speaker 1: is a way to almost launder a bad character. I mean,

1132
01:10:48,280 --> 01:10:50,920
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I you know, and look, it's a free

1133
01:10:50,960 --> 01:10:53,920
Speaker 1: country and anybody can run and voters can decide. You know,

1134
01:10:53,960 --> 01:10:56,719
Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember David Duke versus Edwin Edwards

1135
01:10:56,960 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 1: and the famous bumper sticker vote for the crook. It's important,

1136
01:11:00,920 --> 01:11:02,960
Speaker 1: you know, so every once in a while, you do

1137
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:06,040
Speaker 1: got to vote for a crook because the alternative is

1138
01:11:06,280 --> 01:11:08,680
Speaker 1: you know, Joe Biden had that great saving saying right,

1139
01:11:08,680 --> 01:11:11,280
Speaker 1: don't judge me by the Almighty, judge me by the alternative,

1140
01:11:11,680 --> 01:11:14,120
Speaker 1: which I think is why so many Democrats close their

1141
01:11:14,160 --> 01:11:19,559
Speaker 1: eyes to Biden's failings, because they kept saying, but Trump right, Like,

1142
01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:23,000
Speaker 1: you know, they kept seeing, well, Trump's crazy, so this

1143
01:11:23,040 --> 01:11:24,880
Speaker 1: stuff can't be that bad. And it's like, now that

1144
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 1: stuff can be that bad. You're you're sort of blind

1145
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:31,120
Speaker 1: over here. But I understood how many people around Biden

1146
01:11:31,200 --> 01:11:33,960
Speaker 1: came to that conclusion not because they were looking at Biden,

1147
01:11:34,040 --> 01:11:35,760
Speaker 1: but because they were judging him against.

1148
01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:43,080
Speaker 2: Trump, right, And I think that oftentimes that is ultimately

1149
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:46,240
Speaker 2: too much of the litmus test. Yeah, and you know,

1150
01:11:46,320 --> 01:11:49,439
Speaker 2: I got into this late. This I've never intended to

1151
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:52,439
Speaker 2: become an elected official, but now that I'm not going now,

1152
01:11:52,479 --> 01:11:57,439
Speaker 2: brother exactly, but now that I'm here, it's it's interesting

1153
01:11:57,479 --> 01:11:59,639
Speaker 2: to see the inner workings of it and to see

1154
01:11:59,720 --> 01:12:04,559
Speaker 2: how how you know, the machine operates, and it does operate,

1155
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:09,160
Speaker 2: and I think that it's name recognition is a lot

1156
01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:12,640
Speaker 2: in elections, right, and so the two of them have

1157
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:16,760
Speaker 2: far and away the highest name recognition. That may change, though,

1158
01:12:16,840 --> 01:12:20,520
Speaker 2: you know, as you get closer to elections and people.

1159
01:12:20,240 --> 01:12:24,439
Speaker 1: Well, I always say I trust the voters. Eventually, I mean,

1160
01:12:24,479 --> 01:12:29,920
Speaker 1: I think voters will probably the the constituents of mine

1161
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,519
Speaker 1: that you are talking to. Yeah, they're a little more

1162
01:12:32,520 --> 01:12:35,960
Speaker 1: plugged in, but yeah, yeah, I mean obviously, But is.

1163
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:40,840
Speaker 2: You're you're hearing that the city needs competent leadership.

1164
01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:41,559
Speaker 1: Yep.

1165
01:12:41,720 --> 01:12:46,000
Speaker 2: And Andrew Cuomo is someone who has had some personal

1166
01:12:46,360 --> 01:12:50,640
Speaker 2: serious personal failings and has you know, I think some

1167
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:53,680
Speaker 2: real blemishes on his governance.

1168
01:12:53,960 --> 01:12:57,599
Speaker 1: He's not taking responsibility first personal failings, like I'm all

1169
01:12:57,600 --> 01:12:59,960
Speaker 1: for forgiveness, but you've got to take responsibility first.

1170
01:13:00,600 --> 01:13:02,720
Speaker 2: And I think a lot of people seem to be

1171
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:08,000
Speaker 2: overlooking that because they view him as the most competent

1172
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:12,599
Speaker 2: manager and executive in the field. And that's really after

1173
01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:16,720
Speaker 2: you know, the last decade or so, that's really what

1174
01:13:17,120 --> 01:13:21,720
Speaker 2: New York City needs. I just I really like, you know,

1175
01:13:21,840 --> 01:13:27,080
Speaker 2: the idea of people who have new ideas, new energy,

1176
01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:32,439
Speaker 2: will hire very smart people to execute and manage, but

1177
01:13:32,600 --> 01:13:36,599
Speaker 2: have a different vision that is forward looking. And that's

1178
01:13:36,600 --> 01:13:38,599
Speaker 2: certainly what I'm trying to be myself.

1179
01:13:39,160 --> 01:13:42,800
Speaker 1: All Right, Dan Goldman, I kept here longer than I

1180
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:45,599
Speaker 1: think I said, so I appreciate it. I was told

1181
01:13:45,640 --> 01:13:47,639
Speaker 1: you're allowsy fantasy football players. It's true.

1182
01:13:48,320 --> 01:13:57,559
Speaker 2: Look, if you name your team after a submarine chain restaurant,

1183
01:13:57,960 --> 01:14:01,200
Speaker 2: you just can't talk trash about fantasy football.

1184
01:14:01,439 --> 01:14:03,439
Speaker 1: I love I love playing that easter egg. I'm not

1185
01:14:03,479 --> 01:14:06,679
Speaker 1: gonna even explain it. I'm gonna let the persons you direct.

1186
01:14:06,760 --> 01:14:09,719
Speaker 2: One person, I think he knows what I'm talking about.

1187
01:14:09,760 --> 01:14:14,439
Speaker 2: I love it. Yeah, But needless to say, fantasy football

1188
01:14:14,640 --> 01:14:17,000
Speaker 2: is something I very much look forward to.

1189
01:14:17,760 --> 01:14:20,120
Speaker 1: Well, especially if you're a Giant or Jets fan, because

1190
01:14:20,200 --> 01:14:22,200
Speaker 1: you need to have winning football somewhere.

1191
01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:22,320
Speaker 2: And it ain't.

1192
01:14:22,640 --> 01:14:24,040
Speaker 1: It ain't on the real grid iron.

1193
01:14:23,880 --> 01:14:25,040
Speaker 2: Right exactly.

1194
01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:27,160
Speaker 1: All right, my friend, it's good to see you.

1195
01:14:27,360 --> 01:14:29,400
Speaker 2: Great to see you, Jock, Thanks so much, Thank you.

1196
01:14:37,000 --> 01:14:39,160
Speaker 1: Keep an eye on Dan Goldman. I think he's going

1197
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:42,639
Speaker 1: to be running for something, maybe statewide, maybe not twenty six,

1198
01:14:42,720 --> 01:14:45,080
Speaker 1: maybe twenty eight. You know, there's probably going to be

1199
01:14:45,160 --> 01:14:47,680
Speaker 1: an open Senate seat in twenty eight. Just keep that

1200
01:14:47,720 --> 01:14:50,400
Speaker 1: in mind. Chuck Schumer does not look like somebody that's

1201
01:14:50,400 --> 01:14:52,840
Speaker 1: going to be seeking reelection, and if he does, he's

1202
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:56,960
Speaker 1: going to face probably a very tough primary. And I

1203
01:14:56,960 --> 01:14:59,280
Speaker 1: don't know if that's the way he wants to run

1204
01:14:59,320 --> 01:15:03,479
Speaker 1: his last camp and for Senate. And if AOC decides

1205
01:15:03,520 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 1: to run for president in twenty twenty eight, and I

1206
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:08,439
Speaker 1: think that looks more likely, well then it's a wide

1207
01:15:08,439 --> 01:15:12,320
Speaker 1: open center race. And who knows. Dan Goldman has a

1208
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:16,080
Speaker 1: lot of resources, he's got some family money. So just

1209
01:15:16,160 --> 01:15:18,200
Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on, all right. Coming up,

1210
01:15:18,240 --> 01:15:20,719
Speaker 1: I got my conversation with Dave Wasserman. We go deep

1211
01:15:20,760 --> 01:15:23,200
Speaker 1: and dorky on all things having to do with house

1212
01:15:23,320 --> 01:15:26,599
Speaker 1: races and the presidential vote, and we're talking about how

1213
01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:32,320
Speaker 1: few swing districts there are. Well, guess what if Congress

1214
01:15:32,360 --> 01:15:36,880
Speaker 1: actually was still functioning the way the founders would want it,

1215
01:15:37,120 --> 01:15:39,599
Speaker 1: we wouldn't have four hundred and thirty five House districts

1216
01:15:39,640 --> 01:15:43,240
Speaker 1: right now. We'd have eight hundred and eighty one. That's right.

1217
01:15:43,520 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 1: If we were expanding the House at the rate that

1218
01:15:46,240 --> 01:15:48,559
Speaker 1: we expanded the House all the way through nineteen thirty

1219
01:15:48,720 --> 01:15:53,120
Speaker 1: with every census, we didn't just reapportion districts. We actually

1220
01:15:53,160 --> 01:15:57,120
Speaker 1: expanded the number of districts around the country. This was

1221
01:15:57,160 --> 01:15:59,200
Speaker 1: the subject of a Ted talk I gave over the weekend.

1222
01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:01,760
Speaker 1: You can look around all my socials and see the

1223
01:16:01,800 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 1: whole thing if you'd like. We'll probably be posting it

1224
01:16:04,400 --> 01:16:09,160
Speaker 1: on YouTube as well. But the bottom line is, I

1225
01:16:09,200 --> 01:16:11,960
Speaker 1: know some of you think, why do we want more politicians?

1226
01:16:11,960 --> 01:16:14,840
Speaker 1: Why do you want more people in the House. Well,

1227
01:16:14,960 --> 01:16:19,400
Speaker 1: here's the short answer. People feel disconnected from Washington like

1228
01:16:19,439 --> 01:16:23,880
Speaker 1: never before. Most people think don't know what their congressman does.

1229
01:16:24,320 --> 01:16:27,360
Speaker 1: And most members of Congress don't represent an entire congressional

1230
01:16:27,360 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 1: district anymore because they don't have to. They just represent

1231
01:16:30,320 --> 01:16:34,080
Speaker 1: a faction. These districts are nearly a million in population,

1232
01:16:34,800 --> 01:16:36,719
Speaker 1: and all you have to do is win a small

1233
01:16:36,760 --> 01:16:40,240
Speaker 1: slice of that million, and you don't even represent anybody else.

1234
01:16:40,280 --> 01:16:43,360
Speaker 1: It's why so many people feel unrepresented. That was not

1235
01:16:43,600 --> 01:16:46,800
Speaker 1: the intention of the People's House. This thing should be

1236
01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:50,080
Speaker 1: one per four hundred thousand. And by the way, if

1237
01:16:50,120 --> 01:16:52,479
Speaker 1: we had that, we probably have one hundred and fifty

1238
01:16:52,560 --> 01:16:56,080
Speaker 1: swing districts. From my man, Dave Wasserman and I to

1239
01:16:56,160 --> 01:16:58,400
Speaker 1: be breaking down in our next segment, but we don't

1240
01:16:58,400 --> 01:17:01,120
Speaker 1: have that yet. But it is something I hope you

1241
01:17:01,160 --> 01:17:03,320
Speaker 1: take a look at it, and I hope you understand. Again.

1242
01:17:03,560 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 1: You may think, oh, we can't have all those members

1243
01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:10,920
Speaker 1: of Congress running around Washington. We can't, you know what, Yes,

1244
01:17:10,960 --> 01:17:15,280
Speaker 1: we can. And actually the messier democracy is in the House,

1245
01:17:15,760 --> 01:17:19,559
Speaker 1: the more it's actually small the democracy. All right, With that,

1246
01:17:19,880 --> 01:17:25,280
Speaker 1: enjoy this interview with Dave Washerman, and joining me now

1247
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:28,639
Speaker 1: is the man who many of you know, as mister

1248
01:17:28,720 --> 01:17:33,760
Speaker 1: I've seen enough if you've followed Dave Washerman on any

1249
01:17:33,800 --> 01:17:37,400
Speaker 1: election night, not just the election night, any election night,

1250
01:17:37,840 --> 01:17:40,080
Speaker 1: as I like to say, if it's Tuesday, somebody's voting

1251
01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:45,080
Speaker 1: somewhere and perhaps the one person who's looking at the

1252
01:17:45,120 --> 01:17:48,599
Speaker 1: returns as they come in on those nights as mister washerman.

1253
01:17:48,680 --> 01:17:51,960
Speaker 1: Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter,

1254
01:17:52,000 --> 01:17:52,720
Speaker 1: good to see you, sir.

1255
01:17:52,960 --> 01:17:53,559
Speaker 2: It's an honor.

1256
01:17:53,760 --> 01:17:56,200
Speaker 4: Congratulations on this new adventk you.

1257
01:17:56,600 --> 01:17:59,320
Speaker 1: Well, you know, you guys have been entrepreneurs for a

1258
01:17:59,320 --> 01:18:02,720
Speaker 1: long time, been in this space for quite some time.

1259
01:18:02,760 --> 01:18:05,120
Speaker 1: I don't think people realize it, but I mean, you know,

1260
01:18:06,160 --> 01:18:08,880
Speaker 1: when you think about people talking about small business, do

1261
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:10,040
Speaker 1: you think of your job?

1262
01:18:12,240 --> 01:18:14,479
Speaker 4: You know, it felt like a really small business when

1263
01:18:14,560 --> 01:18:17,120
Speaker 4: I first started. There were five of us there, and

1264
01:18:17,640 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 4: I don't know how I did the house for sixteen

1265
01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:22,840
Speaker 4: years by myself, you know, to be honest, I didn't

1266
01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:25,000
Speaker 4: really do it justice. I was always looking for inspiration

1267
01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:28,439
Speaker 4: from Amy's old stuff. And now we have a young

1268
01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:30,080
Speaker 4: team of writers who are doing a great a job

1269
01:18:30,080 --> 01:18:32,519
Speaker 4: with it. But now we're a big business. We're up

1270
01:18:32,560 --> 01:18:33,200
Speaker 4: to ten people.

1271
01:18:33,479 --> 01:18:38,240
Speaker 1: So that's fantastic. That's fantastic. Well, I mean, you know,

1272
01:18:38,240 --> 01:18:40,400
Speaker 1: it's sort of the rise. I mean before we get

1273
01:18:40,439 --> 01:18:41,920
Speaker 1: into I mean, the reason they have you on now

1274
01:18:42,000 --> 01:18:45,439
Speaker 1: is you guys have unveiled earlier this month your updated

1275
01:18:45,479 --> 01:18:48,320
Speaker 1: partisan Voting Index, which is really as good of a

1276
01:18:48,360 --> 01:18:52,240
Speaker 1: tool as there is to at least beginning the handicap

1277
01:18:52,320 --> 01:18:55,200
Speaker 1: process of house races, and even in some cases it

1278
01:18:55,200 --> 01:18:59,360
Speaker 1: helps with some other some other handicapping. It gives you

1279
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:02,000
Speaker 1: an idea of states are shifting and things like that.

1280
01:19:02,120 --> 01:19:05,479
Speaker 1: And we know that that the two parties use the

1281
01:19:05,520 --> 01:19:10,800
Speaker 1: PBI to essentially determine some of their targeting. But before

1282
01:19:10,840 --> 01:19:17,000
Speaker 1: we get into it, what to me, You're in the

1283
01:19:17,000 --> 01:19:21,479
Speaker 1: front lines of seeing the level of granular interest in

1284
01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:25,120
Speaker 1: politics in America, right, I mean, think, just go back

1285
01:19:25,160 --> 01:19:28,080
Speaker 1: sixteen years and think about the people that called you

1286
01:19:28,439 --> 01:19:31,920
Speaker 1: and now think today on this. I mean, is this

1287
01:19:32,080 --> 01:19:34,559
Speaker 1: really like we have? How much do you think we've

1288
01:19:34,640 --> 01:19:38,400
Speaker 1: mainstreamed interest in political handicapping.

1289
01:19:38,720 --> 01:19:42,599
Speaker 4: It's amazing to meet Chuck like as a thirteen year

1290
01:19:42,640 --> 01:19:45,479
Speaker 4: old kid who is getting into this stuff, and you know,

1291
01:19:45,560 --> 01:19:48,360
Speaker 4: living in the Jersey suburbs, and I read the Almanac

1292
01:19:48,439 --> 01:19:50,800
Speaker 4: of American Politics at the library because I couldn't check

1293
01:19:50,800 --> 01:19:54,879
Speaker 4: out reference books. But and you know, I'd watch Inside

1294
01:19:54,880 --> 01:19:59,160
Speaker 4: Politics with Judy Woodruff and Bernardshaw. Back then it was

1295
01:19:59,200 --> 01:20:04,800
Speaker 4: inconceivable that a special election night would get wall to

1296
01:20:04,840 --> 01:20:10,120
Speaker 4: wall coverage for a house race, right, And I think

1297
01:20:10,680 --> 01:20:14,840
Speaker 4: beginning with John ossoff in twenty seventeen, and that obsession.

1298
01:20:14,920 --> 01:20:18,799
Speaker 4: Once Trump got in power, Democrats just you know, their

1299
01:20:18,960 --> 01:20:22,800
Speaker 4: enthusiasm among the donor class and the activist class went

1300
01:20:22,840 --> 01:20:25,080
Speaker 4: through the roof what can we do to stop this?

1301
01:20:25,840 --> 01:20:29,800
Speaker 4: And it all funneled into things that ordinarily wouldn't be

1302
01:20:29,960 --> 01:20:34,799
Speaker 4: all that earthshaking, and suddenly they became these shiny objects.

1303
01:20:35,479 --> 01:20:40,040
Speaker 4: And so now you've got a lot of a lot

1304
01:20:40,080 --> 01:20:44,080
Speaker 4: of teenagers who you know, at the age I was

1305
01:20:44,120 --> 01:20:46,759
Speaker 4: when I was first getting into this, they're they're following

1306
01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:50,680
Speaker 4: this in a pretty obsessive way. What we've lost is

1307
01:20:52,000 --> 01:20:55,000
Speaker 4: a lot of the local news component to it.

1308
01:20:55,200 --> 01:20:55,439
Speaker 2: Oh.

1309
01:20:55,479 --> 01:20:57,720
Speaker 1: I mean, this is obviously you know, this is my obsession,

1310
01:20:58,280 --> 01:21:01,479
Speaker 1: and you know, I think about the hotline and you

1311
01:21:01,479 --> 01:21:05,479
Speaker 1: you know, back when I was there, and I don't

1312
01:21:05,520 --> 01:21:07,080
Speaker 1: know what we would have done if there had been

1313
01:21:07,120 --> 01:21:08,760
Speaker 1: no local political journalists.

1314
01:21:09,000 --> 01:21:11,720
Speaker 4: That's right, right, Because we're getting all these clips, and

1315
01:21:11,760 --> 01:21:15,120
Speaker 4: now where we really getting our clips from. It's from

1316
01:21:15,240 --> 01:21:19,280
Speaker 4: press releases, it's from the party committees. To some extent,

1317
01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:23,760
Speaker 4: there is some you know, regional reporting left that you

1318
01:21:23,800 --> 01:21:26,320
Speaker 4: have to do your own ground. But that's what we've got.

1319
01:21:26,240 --> 01:21:29,240
Speaker 1: To talk about. I had to transition to you know.

1320
01:21:29,479 --> 01:21:33,640
Speaker 4: That's right, And these days it really is about building

1321
01:21:34,080 --> 01:21:37,759
Speaker 4: those connections with the general consultants for the campaigns to

1322
01:21:37,800 --> 01:21:41,400
Speaker 4: get a sense of of what is happening, because you know,

1323
01:21:41,439 --> 01:21:44,240
Speaker 4: there are fewer intermediaries and and you've got to follow

1324
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:48,360
Speaker 4: everyone's social media to and try and try and unspin it.

1325
01:21:48,400 --> 01:21:50,439
Speaker 4: You got to build the relationships with the polsters who

1326
01:21:50,479 --> 01:21:53,920
Speaker 4: are covering or working on a wide variety of these campaigns,

1327
01:21:54,479 --> 01:22:00,639
Speaker 4: with the general consultants, with a lot of operatives who

1328
01:22:00,680 --> 01:22:04,880
Speaker 4: know their states well. Because there are fewer media intermediaries

1329
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:06,599
Speaker 4: than there used to be. And I think a lot

1330
01:22:06,680 --> 01:22:09,080
Speaker 4: of the state house startups and the kinds of things

1331
01:22:09,120 --> 01:22:13,640
Speaker 4: that you're working on and passionate about have potential to

1332
01:22:14,840 --> 01:22:18,800
Speaker 4: be similar to what we used to have, but they're

1333
01:22:18,840 --> 01:22:19,960
Speaker 4: they're going to look a lot different.

1334
01:22:21,080 --> 01:22:21,280
Speaker 2: You know.

1335
01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:25,040
Speaker 1: One of the things that I always appreciate is when

1336
01:22:25,040 --> 01:22:26,920
Speaker 1: I'm able to get on the ground somewhere and you

1337
01:22:26,960 --> 01:22:30,559
Speaker 1: actually get a feel for a community. And that's harder

1338
01:22:30,560 --> 01:22:33,040
Speaker 1: than ever. You know, It's what I when I first

1339
01:22:33,040 --> 01:22:36,040
Speaker 1: started consuming almanacs, I go, you know, one of the things,

1340
01:22:36,080 --> 01:22:37,760
Speaker 1: by the way, you want to talk about geeking on

1341
01:22:37,880 --> 01:22:40,439
Speaker 1: the almanac I'll never forget the first time I got

1342
01:22:40,439 --> 01:22:42,720
Speaker 1: my hands on a seventy two almanac. You learn a

1343
01:22:42,720 --> 01:22:45,240
Speaker 1: little something about the community, but everything was based in

1344
01:22:45,360 --> 01:22:49,880
Speaker 1: sort of what happened post segregation, and it was just,

1345
01:22:49,920 --> 01:22:52,040
Speaker 1: you know, it's this incredible transition. And what I always

1346
01:22:52,040 --> 01:22:54,280
Speaker 1: say is you can actually take you know, it'd be

1347
01:22:54,280 --> 01:22:57,519
Speaker 1: a lot of fun if the almanac could just give

1348
01:22:57,560 --> 01:23:01,320
Speaker 1: me Alabama one over a four year period, a fifty

1349
01:23:01,400 --> 01:23:03,599
Speaker 1: year period, and you read and you sort of see,

1350
01:23:03,600 --> 01:23:06,240
Speaker 1: and obviously with AI now we probably can do that.

1351
01:23:06,280 --> 01:23:09,640
Speaker 1: You can almost tell this rich story. But you know,

1352
01:23:09,720 --> 01:23:13,920
Speaker 1: for me, understanding how community truly works from from the

1353
01:23:13,960 --> 01:23:17,639
Speaker 1: ground up helped with the handicapping. How do you get

1354
01:23:17,640 --> 01:23:20,800
Speaker 1: that sense anymore? Right when you don't have that that

1355
01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:23,840
Speaker 1: that local political reporter giving you the reminder, well, this

1356
01:23:23,960 --> 01:23:25,559
Speaker 1: used to be a factory here, and this is what

1357
01:23:25,600 --> 01:23:28,160
Speaker 1: people are doing, you know that sort of thing. Where

1358
01:23:28,160 --> 01:23:31,000
Speaker 1: do you get that granular information outside of the almanac

1359
01:23:31,120 --> 01:23:31,960
Speaker 1: these days?

1360
01:23:32,760 --> 01:23:35,759
Speaker 4: Actually, the fact you brought up Alabama one is fascinating

1361
01:23:35,800 --> 01:23:38,000
Speaker 4: because we always start on that district when we.

1362
01:23:37,960 --> 01:23:41,520
Speaker 1: Of course, right, it's first in the alphabet.

1363
01:23:41,120 --> 01:23:42,960
Speaker 4: Right, a little capital, and I actually think it's pretty

1364
01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:46,519
Speaker 4: instructive over time, I've had a great source and mobile.

1365
01:23:47,479 --> 01:23:51,639
Speaker 4: That district, you know, is traditionally a defense appropriations district,

1366
01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:57,080
Speaker 4: right Sonny Callahan, you know Bradley Burn and then up

1367
01:23:57,160 --> 01:24:00,400
Speaker 4: until recently Jerry Carl And then what happened well in

1368
01:24:00,560 --> 01:24:04,439
Speaker 4: the Voting Rights Act lawsuit, it got merged with a

1369
01:24:04,479 --> 01:24:09,000
Speaker 4: Freedom Caucus district in the Wiregrass region to the east.

1370
01:24:09,680 --> 01:24:13,920
Speaker 4: And who won that our versus our primary It was

1371
01:24:13,920 --> 01:24:16,759
Speaker 4: the Freedom Caucus guy over the appropriator. So it speaks

1372
01:24:16,800 --> 01:24:20,439
Speaker 4: to what voters are valuing and how that's shifted over

1373
01:24:20,520 --> 01:24:23,760
Speaker 4: time on the Republican side. But yeah, I mean that

1374
01:24:24,520 --> 01:24:28,599
Speaker 4: My favorite district to cover are those that are mid

1375
01:24:28,680 --> 01:24:32,839
Speaker 4: sized markets where you do have a robust civic class

1376
01:24:33,000 --> 01:24:37,559
Speaker 4: and a and a newspaper or a good local media

1377
01:24:37,560 --> 01:24:41,760
Speaker 4: outlet with a reporter that is covering things well. Sarahcuse

1378
01:24:41,840 --> 01:24:45,599
Speaker 4: is another favorite place of mind to cover congressional races.

1379
01:24:45,640 --> 01:24:49,040
Speaker 4: You know, talking to Marker at the Post Standard there,

1380
01:24:49,280 --> 01:24:51,320
Speaker 4: you know, he's on top of everything that's going on.

1381
01:24:51,479 --> 01:24:54,759
Speaker 4: It's in these kind of exurban districts, in big markets

1382
01:24:55,400 --> 01:24:58,240
Speaker 4: or in really rural places where all the papers have

1383
01:24:58,280 --> 01:24:58,759
Speaker 4: gone away.

1384
01:24:59,040 --> 01:25:02,240
Speaker 1: Those are more challenge, you know, I had Jake Laturner

1385
01:25:02,720 --> 01:25:05,120
Speaker 1: on my podcast a few months ago because I was

1386
01:25:05,120 --> 01:25:07,320
Speaker 1: obsessed with the idea that here's this guy at thirty

1387
01:25:07,360 --> 01:25:10,640
Speaker 1: six deciding not to run for reelection. Didn't really have

1388
01:25:10,720 --> 01:25:12,479
Speaker 1: a reason, you know, he wasn't getting chased out with

1389
01:25:12,479 --> 01:25:15,840
Speaker 1: the primary. Certainly, his flavor of conservatism is a little

1390
01:25:15,840 --> 01:25:17,760
Speaker 1: bit different than the than the MAGA world. He was

1391
01:25:17,760 --> 01:25:19,800
Speaker 1: sort of in the Sam Brown back wing of the

1392
01:25:19,840 --> 01:25:25,360
Speaker 1: party in Kansas. But he talked about this issue of

1393
01:25:25,360 --> 01:25:28,640
Speaker 1: of the so for instance, his district butts up in

1394
01:25:28,680 --> 01:25:32,400
Speaker 1: the Topeak a media market, but Topeka, the Capital Journal

1395
01:25:32,800 --> 01:25:36,280
Speaker 1: shrunk its footprint, right, and they don't really cover the

1396
01:25:37,000 --> 01:25:39,240
Speaker 1: continuous you know that those you know, they just really

1397
01:25:39,280 --> 01:25:43,000
Speaker 1: cover Topeka proper. And it gets at what you're just describing.

1398
01:25:43,040 --> 01:25:45,759
Speaker 1: As he said, the biggest town I think is Pittsburgh,

1399
01:25:45,880 --> 01:25:49,559
Speaker 1: Kansas there and they you know, everything is shrunk there.

1400
01:25:49,600 --> 01:25:52,200
Speaker 1: And this has been one of his frustrations is that

1401
01:25:52,400 --> 01:25:56,360
Speaker 1: literally he you know, he cuts down trees in the

1402
01:25:56,439 --> 01:25:58,680
Speaker 1: in the you know, ag committee, and no one's there

1403
01:25:58,720 --> 01:26:02,040
Speaker 1: to cover it make a sound, right other than his

1404
01:26:02,160 --> 01:26:06,960
Speaker 1: release to his constituents. And and uh, it's it's a

1405
01:26:06,960 --> 01:26:09,280
Speaker 1: big enough problem he said, the civic community in Pittsburgh

1406
01:26:09,320 --> 01:26:10,600
Speaker 1: was trying to figure out, maybe we should buy the

1407
01:26:10,600 --> 01:26:12,479
Speaker 1: local paper, maybe we should try to fix this. Like,

1408
01:26:13,400 --> 01:26:15,760
Speaker 1: more and more people are aware, even in the mid

1409
01:26:15,800 --> 01:26:19,800
Speaker 1: size to small business community that the that that these

1410
01:26:19,840 --> 01:26:22,640
Speaker 1: sort of markets that we're describing right, not in the

1411
01:26:22,640 --> 01:26:27,160
Speaker 1: major metros, but just outside, they're just not getting the

1412
01:26:27,160 --> 01:26:29,000
Speaker 1: covers that they should, right.

1413
01:26:29,120 --> 01:26:31,479
Speaker 4: And you know, to some extent, Facebook has filled the

1414
01:26:31,560 --> 01:26:35,360
Speaker 4: void in these communities and sometimes warped ways, right. You know,

1415
01:26:35,400 --> 01:26:37,800
Speaker 4: it's really filling the void in a lot of you know,

1416
01:26:37,840 --> 01:26:41,760
Speaker 4: communication in these races is superpacs. Yeah, and I've even

1417
01:26:41,800 --> 01:26:46,240
Speaker 4: seen a lot of superpacked resorting to creating mailers that

1418
01:26:46,320 --> 01:26:47,840
Speaker 4: resemble local newspapers.

1419
01:26:48,280 --> 01:26:51,240
Speaker 1: This I have a very big fear of this. I mean,

1420
01:26:51,280 --> 01:26:53,240
Speaker 1: in fact, this is the stuff that I'm worried about

1421
01:26:53,240 --> 01:26:55,880
Speaker 1: competing against. Is you know, if I'm successful and being

1422
01:26:55,920 --> 01:26:58,680
Speaker 1: able to pull this off and be able to you know,

1423
01:26:58,760 --> 01:27:01,840
Speaker 1: scale up an expansion little news that a local publisher

1424
01:27:02,120 --> 01:27:05,519
Speaker 1: who's actually you know, using you know, ethical means to

1425
01:27:05,560 --> 01:27:07,639
Speaker 1: cover and wants to be a straight up news organization.

1426
01:27:07,840 --> 01:27:10,599
Speaker 1: Are these How common is this now in these congressional

1427
01:27:10,680 --> 01:27:12,080
Speaker 1: races that you're seeing listen.

1428
01:27:13,240 --> 01:27:16,840
Speaker 4: I think when there's a competitive primary for a safe seat,

1429
01:27:16,840 --> 01:27:19,559
Speaker 4: which is really the scenario that generates most.

1430
01:27:19,360 --> 01:27:21,720
Speaker 2: New members of Congress, Yeah.

1431
01:27:21,760 --> 01:27:27,240
Speaker 4: You almost have to have a soft dollar component in

1432
01:27:27,280 --> 01:27:30,880
Speaker 4: addition to the hard campaign dollars. Right, because when you're

1433
01:27:30,880 --> 01:27:33,080
Speaker 4: trying to break through in a crowded field, unless you

1434
01:27:33,240 --> 01:27:37,120
Speaker 4: are injecting personal wealth, you've got to help have wealthy

1435
01:27:37,120 --> 01:27:40,799
Speaker 4: outside allies or friends to be able to maintain pace.

1436
01:27:41,000 --> 01:27:44,400
Speaker 4: I think it's very very rare to see a shoe

1437
01:27:44,479 --> 01:27:50,160
Speaker 4: leather campaign that's raising money in hard dollar limited increments

1438
01:27:50,360 --> 01:27:52,479
Speaker 4: end up succeeding on that alone these days.

1439
01:27:53,120 --> 01:27:55,479
Speaker 1: Right, No, I was talking referring to the super pecs

1440
01:27:55,520 --> 01:27:57,560
Speaker 1: starting their own the organizations.

1441
01:27:57,680 --> 01:28:01,920
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, you know, most of the overwhelming share is

1442
01:28:01,920 --> 01:28:06,120
Speaker 4: spent on TV, but I have seen mailers in particular

1443
01:28:06,240 --> 01:28:13,120
Speaker 4: that resemble them. I think DMFI engaged in some of

1444
01:28:13,120 --> 01:28:17,400
Speaker 4: that in democratic primaries. I know that in the.

1445
01:28:17,320 --> 01:28:20,600
Speaker 1: DMFI when you spoke to go there got it?

1446
01:28:20,720 --> 01:28:20,880
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1447
01:28:21,320 --> 01:28:24,880
Speaker 4: Are majority for Israel also, Joel, thank you.

1448
01:28:25,200 --> 01:28:25,400
Speaker 2: Right.

1449
01:28:25,560 --> 01:28:31,240
Speaker 4: You've also seen American Bridge, which is big super pac

1450
01:28:32,600 --> 01:28:39,080
Speaker 4: create some like local some pamphlets that look like local

1451
01:28:39,080 --> 01:28:42,280
Speaker 4: newspapers to try and influence swing states in twenty twenty four.

1452
01:28:42,960 --> 01:28:47,400
Speaker 4: But yeah, it's a trend line that blurs the lines further.

1453
01:28:47,800 --> 01:28:50,599
Speaker 1: And then you get sort of the the blogger who

1454
01:28:50,640 --> 01:28:54,840
Speaker 1: pops up, who may be a reporter. Maybe they're getting compensated,

1455
01:28:54,880 --> 01:28:55,920
Speaker 1: but you don't know for sure.

1456
01:28:56,040 --> 01:28:59,200
Speaker 4: Right, that's right, We've had that for a while.

1457
01:28:59,320 --> 01:29:02,599
Speaker 1: That's true, and they somehow are always home to opposition research.

1458
01:29:03,120 --> 01:29:05,280
Speaker 1: Hey look what I got my hands on. All right,

1459
01:29:05,400 --> 01:29:08,200
Speaker 1: let's let's get to the you know, we've we've we've

1460
01:29:08,200 --> 01:29:15,680
Speaker 1: played around enough here. How are you deciding how competitive

1461
01:29:16,000 --> 01:29:19,040
Speaker 1: a house race is this for this upcoming cycle. I

1462
01:29:19,080 --> 01:29:21,519
Speaker 1: say that because if you do the mat based on

1463
01:29:21,560 --> 01:29:25,400
Speaker 1: your PVI right, it's obviously the smallest field of swing

1464
01:29:25,400 --> 01:29:28,840
Speaker 1: districts we've had in our adult lifetimes. Is that fair

1465
01:29:28,880 --> 01:29:29,840
Speaker 1: to say?

1466
01:29:30,439 --> 01:29:35,960
Speaker 4: Well, in terms of the PVII range of let's take

1467
01:29:36,040 --> 01:29:39,280
Speaker 4: R plus five to D plus five. Right, it bottomed

1468
01:29:39,320 --> 01:29:43,160
Speaker 4: out at seventy one seats after Trump was elected, and

1469
01:29:43,160 --> 01:29:45,600
Speaker 4: that was down fifty seven percent from one hundred and

1470
01:29:45,640 --> 01:29:48,840
Speaker 4: sixty four in nineteen ninety nine. We've rebounded a bit

1471
01:29:49,000 --> 01:29:54,240
Speaker 4: to eighty seven because we've had a number of Hispanic

1472
01:29:54,360 --> 01:29:58,200
Speaker 4: majority districts and kind of you know, in that fifty

1473
01:29:58,240 --> 01:30:02,559
Speaker 4: to seventy percent white range of districts that have become

1474
01:30:02,720 --> 01:30:06,040
Speaker 4: less solidly blue. That's not to say that we've had

1475
01:30:06,040 --> 01:30:09,320
Speaker 4: this big resurgence in competitive seats now. The other component

1476
01:30:09,400 --> 01:30:12,240
Speaker 4: of that is that there are some previously R plus

1477
01:30:12,280 --> 01:30:15,439
Speaker 4: five or more suburbs that are now in that strike

1478
01:30:15,520 --> 01:30:20,080
Speaker 4: zone and Democrats have flipped. The Democrats flipped a lot

1479
01:30:20,080 --> 01:30:23,599
Speaker 4: of those in twenty eighteen and have maintained control of them.

1480
01:30:24,080 --> 01:30:29,479
Speaker 4: And the big trade in the Trump era is, you know,

1481
01:30:29,520 --> 01:30:34,160
Speaker 4: he's traded. He's alienated college whites in exchange for winning

1482
01:30:35,240 --> 01:30:38,439
Speaker 4: a larger share of working class non whites. And I

1483
01:30:38,479 --> 01:30:41,200
Speaker 4: think that's been a good trade for his ability to

1484
01:30:41,240 --> 01:30:41,760
Speaker 4: win the.

1485
01:30:41,720 --> 01:30:43,799
Speaker 1: Popular good trade in presidential elections.

1486
01:30:43,800 --> 01:30:46,520
Speaker 4: In presidential elections, yeah, but a bad trader.

1487
01:30:46,680 --> 01:30:49,360
Speaker 1: Is that a good right? What about for House republics?

1488
01:30:49,600 --> 01:30:54,640
Speaker 4: Not as much, because the latter group tends to be

1489
01:30:54,680 --> 01:30:58,840
Speaker 4: concentrated in those urban non competitive seats, right, or at

1490
01:30:58,920 --> 01:31:02,960
Speaker 4: least they're cannot competitive yet they're still long ways. AOC's

1491
01:31:03,000 --> 01:31:05,240
Speaker 4: district was near the top of the list, Richie Torres's

1492
01:31:05,240 --> 01:31:06,559
Speaker 4: district was near the top of the list.

1493
01:31:06,439 --> 01:31:09,120
Speaker 1: So they moved the most. But those are not competitive district. Right,

1494
01:31:09,160 --> 01:31:11,479
Speaker 1: they moved the most into Trump's direction, but not really

1495
01:31:11,560 --> 01:31:13,880
Speaker 1: is what you're saying right now.

1496
01:31:14,240 --> 01:31:18,760
Speaker 4: You know New Jersey nine, Bill Pascrell's old seat which

1497
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:23,599
Speaker 4: flipped to Trump, sayic New Jersey and Patterson n Now

1498
01:31:23,680 --> 01:31:25,920
Speaker 4: that's a seat that Democrats do have to be concerned

1499
01:31:25,960 --> 01:31:30,120
Speaker 4: about in the long run. Whereas Mikey Cheryl's district which

1500
01:31:30,160 --> 01:31:33,040
Speaker 4: borders it, which used to be you know, solidly it

1501
01:31:34,040 --> 01:31:37,479
Speaker 4: fruling Heisen, Now that's a safe Democratic seat. So that's

1502
01:31:37,600 --> 01:31:40,120
Speaker 4: kind of my home state illustration of how this model

1503
01:31:40,120 --> 01:31:46,160
Speaker 4: has flipped, and that is that has produced a scenario

1504
01:31:46,200 --> 01:31:50,559
Speaker 4: where the median House seat is now closer to even

1505
01:31:51,160 --> 01:31:54,640
Speaker 4: than at any point since we launched the PVII in

1506
01:31:54,680 --> 01:32:00,280
Speaker 4: the mid nineties. Now, Republicans redistricting advantage peaked in in

1507
01:32:00,320 --> 01:32:05,000
Speaker 4: the twenty tens and in twenty seventeen, after Trump was

1508
01:32:05,040 --> 01:32:07,479
Speaker 4: first elected, the median House, if you ranked order all

1509
01:32:07,520 --> 01:32:09,360
Speaker 4: of them from one to four hundred thirty five, was

1510
01:32:09,520 --> 01:32:11,720
Speaker 4: R plus three, so three points to the right of

1511
01:32:11,720 --> 01:32:15,320
Speaker 4: the nation as a whole. Today it's R plus zero

1512
01:32:15,360 --> 01:32:18,920
Speaker 4: point six. And that median district is California twenty two,

1513
01:32:19,439 --> 01:32:23,800
Speaker 4: held by David Valadeo. But that just illustrates how much

1514
01:32:23,880 --> 01:32:27,479
Speaker 4: less skewed the House map is than it used to

1515
01:32:27,479 --> 01:32:31,000
Speaker 4: be ohing not really to changes in redistrict but rather

1516
01:32:31,080 --> 01:32:32,800
Speaker 4: the changes in the party coalitions.

1517
01:32:33,560 --> 01:32:33,800
Speaker 2: You know.

1518
01:32:34,920 --> 01:32:36,920
Speaker 1: You know, one of the things I remember thinking about

1519
01:32:36,960 --> 01:32:41,920
Speaker 1: after the the reapportionment after twenty twenty is that while

1520
01:32:42,160 --> 01:32:46,040
Speaker 1: I can point to extreme examples of gerrymandering in specific states,

1521
01:32:46,600 --> 01:32:51,280
Speaker 1: that the intertality, it actually is probably the fairest reapportionment

1522
01:32:51,320 --> 01:32:52,960
Speaker 1: we've had in forty years.

1523
01:32:54,160 --> 01:32:58,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, there is a bifurcation in the House

1524
01:32:58,439 --> 01:33:02,320
Speaker 4: between the that were drawn by Republicans, which is about

1525
01:33:02,360 --> 01:33:04,479
Speaker 4: forty one percent of the House, but they only count

1526
01:33:04,479 --> 01:33:07,320
Speaker 4: for twenty one percent of the swing districts, and then

1527
01:33:07,320 --> 01:33:09,200
Speaker 4: the seats that were drawn by courts and commissions. And

1528
01:33:09,200 --> 01:33:11,400
Speaker 4: we had a big explosion in the number of seats

1529
01:33:11,439 --> 01:33:15,640
Speaker 4: drawn by courts and commissions last round. It wasn't just California,

1530
01:33:16,000 --> 01:33:17,720
Speaker 4: which has had it in place for a while, but

1531
01:33:18,520 --> 01:33:24,439
Speaker 4: it also was Michigan and Colorado and Pennsylvania. And keep

1532
01:33:24,439 --> 01:33:26,120
Speaker 4: in mind, you know, Michigan and Pennsylvania is.

1533
01:33:26,080 --> 01:33:27,840
Speaker 1: In Ohio supposed to be one of these.

1534
01:33:27,880 --> 01:33:30,439
Speaker 4: Or were supposed to be. Not really, it's kind of

1535
01:33:30,479 --> 01:33:34,640
Speaker 4: somewhere in between. Right, Democrats have done pretty well on

1536
01:33:34,680 --> 01:33:37,800
Speaker 4: the Ohio map as it is, but that's one place

1537
01:33:37,800 --> 01:33:41,880
Speaker 4: where where the lines could change prior to twenty six.

1538
01:33:41,920 --> 01:33:44,240
Speaker 4: And keep in mind, the only reason why.

1539
01:33:44,200 --> 01:33:46,920
Speaker 1: We're suing over saying that they're not following the ballot

1540
01:33:46,960 --> 01:33:48,360
Speaker 1: initiative right.

1541
01:33:48,600 --> 01:33:52,920
Speaker 4: Correct, But a measure to try and double down on

1542
01:33:52,960 --> 01:33:58,640
Speaker 4: that reform failed last cycle because Republicans, who control the

1543
01:33:58,680 --> 01:34:03,320
Speaker 4: state ballot board, they twisted the language to make it

1544
01:34:03,360 --> 01:34:05,519
Speaker 4: seem as if the amendment was the opposite of what

1545
01:34:05,560 --> 01:34:09,200
Speaker 4: it was intending to do. So, yeah, it is kind

1546
01:34:09,200 --> 01:34:14,800
Speaker 4: of a situation of capture. But the only reason we

1547
01:34:14,840 --> 01:34:19,120
Speaker 4: have Speaker Mike Johnson is because Republicans jerrymandered the lines

1548
01:34:19,160 --> 01:34:23,599
Speaker 4: of North Carolina last cycle, and now Republicans are and

1549
01:34:23,720 --> 01:34:26,120
Speaker 4: that gave them three seats, which ended up being the

1550
01:34:26,120 --> 01:34:26,920
Speaker 4: decisive margin.

1551
01:34:27,000 --> 01:34:31,000
Speaker 1: So that more than Desanti's is rejiggering because that used

1552
01:34:31,000 --> 01:34:33,360
Speaker 1: to be. That was the other argument that actually Desantists

1553
01:34:33,360 --> 01:34:34,519
Speaker 1: may have saved the House majority.

1554
01:34:35,200 --> 01:34:37,639
Speaker 4: Well, that's true too if you go back.

1555
01:34:37,520 --> 01:34:40,240
Speaker 1: To well, when it's that narrow, right, everybody can take credit.

1556
01:34:40,000 --> 01:34:43,639
Speaker 4: Everyone can take credit. But you know what's interesting about

1557
01:34:43,920 --> 01:34:46,160
Speaker 4: how the conversation has changed the last couple of years.

1558
01:34:46,680 --> 01:34:50,680
Speaker 4: For the last you know, decade plus, it was primarily

1559
01:34:50,760 --> 01:34:54,880
Speaker 4: Democrats who were complaining about egregious Republican jerrymannering. What I

1560
01:34:55,000 --> 01:35:00,000
Speaker 4: noticed after twenty twenty four when Democrats bucked the presidential

1561
01:35:00,080 --> 01:35:02,519
Speaker 4: trying and picked up a couple of House seats, most

1562
01:35:02,560 --> 01:35:08,480
Speaker 4: of my mentions were Republicans complaining about redistricting and California

1563
01:35:09,040 --> 01:35:11,599
Speaker 4: jerry mattering the lines, and look, California has got a commission.

1564
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:15,880
Speaker 4: It's that I think that that Democrats were able to

1565
01:35:16,040 --> 01:35:19,640
Speaker 4: game a little bit, but complaining about the lines in

1566
01:35:19,680 --> 01:35:23,360
Speaker 4: Illinois and New Mexico and Oregon. So now true, much

1567
01:35:23,479 --> 01:35:27,960
Speaker 4: more of a And look, Democrats were only able to

1568
01:35:28,040 --> 01:35:29,800
Speaker 4: draw about a third of the number of seats that

1569
01:35:29,840 --> 01:35:35,800
Speaker 4: Republicans did, but the complaining has become much more bipartisan.

1570
01:35:36,240 --> 01:35:38,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, well it's sort of a nice in some ways.

1571
01:35:38,840 --> 01:35:40,880
Speaker 1: I sort of I'm glad for that, right, which is

1572
01:35:40,880 --> 01:35:44,360
Speaker 1: because the process has sort of there's balance in the force.

1573
01:35:44,920 --> 01:35:46,680
Speaker 1: That's all I'll say is that, you know, and I've

1574
01:35:46,720 --> 01:35:48,639
Speaker 1: always saying, you know, I don't know what your thoughts

1575
01:35:48,680 --> 01:35:51,280
Speaker 1: aren't gerry mandering. I'm obsessed with doubling the sides of

1576
01:35:51,320 --> 01:35:54,880
Speaker 1: the House. That's a that's a I'm going to actually

1577
01:35:55,080 --> 01:35:57,360
Speaker 1: do a ted talk at some point about it, I

1578
01:35:58,000 --> 01:36:02,200
Speaker 1: believe it or not, but I'm I'm obsessed with that issue.

1579
01:36:02,800 --> 01:36:07,040
Speaker 1: But in this sense, it's sort of and this always

1580
01:36:07,040 --> 01:36:09,760
Speaker 1: happens between the two parties, right when one grabs an advantage,

1581
01:36:10,000 --> 01:36:12,400
Speaker 1: the other one figures out a way either to neutralize

1582
01:36:12,400 --> 01:36:15,559
Speaker 1: that advantage or or or participate in it in the

1583
01:36:15,600 --> 01:36:18,280
Speaker 1: same way. And we're at one of those moments where

1584
01:36:18,280 --> 01:36:21,600
Speaker 1: I think we're at We're at an uneasy equilibrium and

1585
01:36:22,320 --> 01:36:26,200
Speaker 1: in the House wars, if you will fair, that's fair.

1586
01:36:26,280 --> 01:36:30,479
Speaker 4: And at the same time, look at the margins that

1587
01:36:30,880 --> 01:36:33,800
Speaker 4: some of these Republicans won by in twenty twenty four

1588
01:36:34,000 --> 01:36:39,400
Speaker 4: in these races. Now, look Democrats, they clobbered Republicans in

1589
01:36:39,920 --> 01:36:42,840
Speaker 4: House fundraising last cycle, which is a big reason why

1590
01:36:42,880 --> 01:36:45,720
Speaker 4: they were able to overperform Kamala Harris. A lot of

1591
01:36:45,720 --> 01:36:48,840
Speaker 4: their incumbents were able to brand themselves a lot more

1592
01:36:48,880 --> 01:36:54,160
Speaker 4: broadly than Kamala was. But look at the margins that

1593
01:36:54,240 --> 01:36:56,920
Speaker 4: Republicans won the House by. It was like seventy three

1594
01:36:57,040 --> 01:37:01,000
Speaker 4: hundred votes when you total up those couple decisive races,

1595
01:37:01,160 --> 01:37:07,000
Speaker 4: and you estimate the changes in both turnout where Trump's

1596
01:37:07,040 --> 01:37:10,080
Speaker 4: face doesn't really show up for Republicans other than Trump

1597
01:37:10,160 --> 01:37:13,920
Speaker 4: and the fact that independence could sour on him on

1598
01:37:13,960 --> 01:37:18,840
Speaker 4: the economy, you could end up seeing a pretty large gain,

1599
01:37:19,000 --> 01:37:21,200
Speaker 4: and large by today's standards. You know, you're not going to.

1600
01:37:21,120 --> 01:37:22,880
Speaker 1: See us in the twenties, right, You're not going to.

1601
01:37:22,880 --> 01:37:25,040
Speaker 4: See forty seats. Could it be in the twenties, Yes,

1602
01:37:25,080 --> 01:37:27,719
Speaker 4: it could be in the twenties because these seats held

1603
01:37:27,760 --> 01:37:30,879
Speaker 4: by Scott Perry and Derek Van Orden and Gabe Evans

1604
01:37:31,720 --> 01:37:35,479
Speaker 4: Jen Kiggins. Yeah, this is a classic kind of midterm

1605
01:37:35,600 --> 01:37:38,719
Speaker 4: backlash environment that we're beginning to see emerge.

1606
01:37:39,280 --> 01:37:42,760
Speaker 1: What do you let's talk about, you know, how do

1607
01:37:42,880 --> 01:37:47,960
Speaker 1: you use special elections to influence how you look at

1608
01:37:48,000 --> 01:37:49,879
Speaker 1: the house map for twenty six.

1609
01:37:51,439 --> 01:37:53,960
Speaker 4: In some ways we're back to twenty seventeen, and in

1610
01:37:54,000 --> 01:37:56,360
Speaker 4: some ways we're not right. You know, I was just

1611
01:37:56,400 --> 01:37:56,720
Speaker 4: going to.

1612
01:37:56,640 --> 01:37:59,120
Speaker 1: Say, is this a repeat of twenty seventeen? Ye have

1613
01:37:59,160 --> 01:38:01,479
Speaker 1: we this basic seen this movie before? And it's going

1614
01:38:01,560 --> 01:38:02,400
Speaker 1: to end the same way.

1615
01:38:03,040 --> 01:38:07,599
Speaker 4: You know, the Florida specials occurred roughly around the same

1616
01:38:07,640 --> 01:38:10,639
Speaker 4: time the cycle when we had a result in Wichita,

1617
01:38:10,800 --> 01:38:16,760
Speaker 4: Kansas in twenty remember the Pompeo seat, and Republicans underperformed

1618
01:38:16,760 --> 01:38:22,000
Speaker 4: by like twenty points there and by the same measure.

1619
01:38:22,320 --> 01:38:24,400
Speaker 4: You know, we're we're kind of in that that realm

1620
01:38:24,439 --> 01:38:27,599
Speaker 4: of specials right now. And it was probably smart of

1621
01:38:27,920 --> 01:38:30,759
Speaker 4: Trump to pull the Stefanic nomination because that's a district

1622
01:38:30,800 --> 01:38:36,040
Speaker 4: I think that behaves more. Uh, it's got more give

1623
01:38:36,160 --> 01:38:38,080
Speaker 4: to it.

1624
01:38:39,200 --> 01:38:40,720
Speaker 1: There's a lot of government there's a lot of state

1625
01:38:40,760 --> 01:38:42,600
Speaker 1: government workers that live in our district. I know it

1626
01:38:42,640 --> 01:38:44,800
Speaker 1: a little bit. I've got some relatives that live in

1627
01:38:44,800 --> 01:38:46,559
Speaker 1: a neighboring district. So there's a little bit of that

1628
01:38:46,600 --> 01:38:48,000
Speaker 1: in there, and they're going to vote, They're going to

1629
01:38:48,000 --> 01:38:48,360
Speaker 1: show up.

1630
01:38:48,760 --> 01:38:51,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, And that was actually the first special action I

1631
01:38:51,040 --> 01:38:52,800
Speaker 4: went to cover in person, was in that seat when

1632
01:38:52,840 --> 01:38:57,800
Speaker 4: Bill Owens DEDI scoes a follow anyway, So in some

1633
01:38:57,880 --> 01:39:00,960
Speaker 4: ways it's the same. I think what's different is that

1634
01:39:01,479 --> 01:39:04,280
Speaker 4: number one, it took a bit longer this cycle for

1635
01:39:04,320 --> 01:39:07,559
Speaker 4: Democrats to re engage. There was a period of a

1636
01:39:07,560 --> 01:39:11,840
Speaker 4: couple months where there was such demoralization and fatigue that,

1637
01:39:12,360 --> 01:39:16,000
Speaker 4: you know, whereas in twenty sixteen seventeen it was immediate

1638
01:39:16,080 --> 01:39:18,439
Speaker 4: and you had the Women's March and so forth. Now

1639
01:39:18,479 --> 01:39:21,560
Speaker 4: I think Democrats are really hyped up. They're back in

1640
01:39:21,600 --> 01:39:24,640
Speaker 4: the game. And whenever you see an outcome like in

1641
01:39:24,680 --> 01:39:28,280
Speaker 4: Wisconsin where a state Supreme Court candidate in April is

1642
01:39:28,280 --> 01:39:32,639
Speaker 4: getting seventy eight percent of the Democratic vote total from

1643
01:39:32,880 --> 01:39:36,360
Speaker 4: the previous fall and the Republicans only getting sixty three percent,

1644
01:39:36,439 --> 01:39:40,080
Speaker 4: that tells you about how the turnout dynamics are flipped

1645
01:39:40,080 --> 01:39:41,639
Speaker 4: from what they were in the Obama era.

1646
01:39:43,320 --> 01:39:45,559
Speaker 1: Yea, So how do you So you know, you look

1647
01:39:45,600 --> 01:39:48,880
Speaker 1: at your PVII and you look at the you know,

1648
01:39:49,280 --> 01:39:52,439
Speaker 1: relatively narrow band of what would that if all things

1649
01:39:52,439 --> 01:39:54,599
Speaker 1: were equal, what the number of swing seats would be,

1650
01:39:55,400 --> 01:39:59,880
Speaker 1: and you think about the sort of whatever you want

1651
01:39:59,880 --> 01:40:02,439
Speaker 1: to call it, that the Trump penalty, right that you know,

1652
01:40:02,439 --> 01:40:04,320
Speaker 1: with Trump not on the ballot, you know how much

1653
01:40:04,600 --> 01:40:08,320
Speaker 1: you know? How you know? Can you put a number

1654
01:40:08,360 --> 01:40:08,760
Speaker 1: on it?

1655
01:40:08,840 --> 01:40:08,920
Speaker 4: Is?

1656
01:40:08,920 --> 01:40:09,000
Speaker 2: It?

1657
01:40:09,320 --> 01:40:10,960
Speaker 1: Is it five points across the board?

1658
01:40:11,640 --> 01:40:12,400
Speaker 2: Right? You know?

1659
01:40:12,439 --> 01:40:14,920
Speaker 1: I'm curious if that's how you look at it, do

1660
01:40:15,000 --> 01:40:18,080
Speaker 1: you Is there certain things you look for in a district. So,

1661
01:40:18,120 --> 01:40:21,040
Speaker 1: for instance, Florida one which I'm very familiar with. I

1662
01:40:21,080 --> 01:40:22,960
Speaker 1: have a lot of relatives that live there. Look the

1663
01:40:23,080 --> 01:40:25,880
Speaker 1: Escambia County result is a big deal, okay, and it

1664
01:40:26,080 --> 01:40:29,120
Speaker 1: and it I think could be first time a Democrats

1665
01:40:29,160 --> 01:40:31,920
Speaker 1: carried a Scambia county in a federal election since twenty

1666
01:40:32,000 --> 01:40:36,439
Speaker 1: oh six. And something I didn't realize was how many

1667
01:40:36,439 --> 01:40:39,519
Speaker 1: government workers. That it was the large largest number of

1668
01:40:39,560 --> 01:40:41,639
Speaker 1: government workers in that district than any other in the state,

1669
01:40:42,120 --> 01:40:44,800
Speaker 1: which obviously with the naval base, and then you have

1670
01:40:44,840 --> 01:40:48,000
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of the economy is based

1671
01:40:48,000 --> 01:40:51,839
Speaker 1: off of the defense industry in general and obviously connected

1672
01:40:51,840 --> 01:40:55,040
Speaker 1: to that base specifically. So I guess the question is,

1673
01:40:55,479 --> 01:40:56,880
Speaker 1: you know how much? Do you sort of look at

1674
01:40:56,920 --> 01:40:59,120
Speaker 1: the Wisconsin result and realize, okay, there is a there's

1675
01:40:59,160 --> 01:41:03,400
Speaker 1: about a five point penalty here, and then you know

1676
01:41:03,479 --> 01:41:06,040
Speaker 1: how much? And then then it becomes I guess, district

1677
01:41:06,080 --> 01:41:10,040
Speaker 1: by district where hm, anywhere where there's a military base,

1678
01:41:10,160 --> 01:41:14,360
Speaker 1: this I might need to pay a little bit more attention.

1679
01:41:14,880 --> 01:41:17,439
Speaker 1: Even though normally just five years ago, you know, ten

1680
01:41:17,479 --> 01:41:19,519
Speaker 1: years ago, we would have said there's a Republican lean

1681
01:41:19,600 --> 01:41:22,080
Speaker 1: to these voters. That might not be the case these days.

1682
01:41:22,080 --> 01:41:27,120
Speaker 1: So how are you using these macro analysis that we've

1683
01:41:27,160 --> 01:41:30,400
Speaker 1: all seen with Trump down on the ballot versus the specific.

1684
01:41:31,160 --> 01:41:34,559
Speaker 4: It's a great question, and you're right. I do think

1685
01:41:34,600 --> 01:41:37,519
Speaker 4: there there was a kind of combination of a federal

1686
01:41:37,560 --> 01:41:41,720
Speaker 4: and military workforce element in Florida one. And also keep

1687
01:41:41,720 --> 01:41:45,000
Speaker 4: in mind there are a lot of second homes that

1688
01:41:45,040 --> 01:41:48,320
Speaker 4: have become primary homes along that stretch of coast.

1689
01:41:48,320 --> 01:41:50,640
Speaker 1: And I don't know what you're talking about data, I

1690
01:41:50,680 --> 01:41:54,679
Speaker 1: don't know it at all. So that's a very it's

1691
01:41:54,800 --> 01:41:58,600
Speaker 1: very true. It's sort of you know, in the in

1692
01:41:58,720 --> 01:42:02,080
Speaker 1: the you know, early retirement, post COVID world. Yeah.

1693
01:42:02,560 --> 01:42:07,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, And there are parts of the country that are analogous.

1694
01:42:08,280 --> 01:42:09,599
Speaker 4: When I think of kind of there's.

1695
01:42:09,400 --> 01:42:11,840
Speaker 1: A district off of Lake Michigan where a bunch of

1696
01:42:11,920 --> 01:42:15,200
Speaker 1: Chicago people, I guess now our full time residents, right,

1697
01:42:15,320 --> 01:42:17,479
Speaker 1: I forget which district it is, but it's one of

1698
01:42:17,479 --> 01:42:19,800
Speaker 1: those up there that has made that area a bit

1699
01:42:19,840 --> 01:42:20,520
Speaker 1: more competitive.

1700
01:42:20,600 --> 01:42:25,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, definitely. But the kind of the dark horse

1701
01:42:25,880 --> 01:42:29,879
Speaker 4: districts that I think about are places like Colorado Springs,

1702
01:42:30,400 --> 01:42:33,400
Speaker 4: where it's been Republican forever.

1703
01:42:33,439 --> 01:42:35,920
Speaker 1: But there's a big obviously the Air Force Academy, and

1704
01:42:35,960 --> 01:42:38,559
Speaker 1: we know that there's a lot of right, Yeah.

1705
01:42:38,040 --> 01:42:42,840
Speaker 4: But it's these it's these mid size outdoorsy metros that

1706
01:42:43,479 --> 01:42:46,360
Speaker 4: are attracting left leaning professionals that want a lower cost

1707
01:42:46,360 --> 01:42:50,240
Speaker 4: of living than the big cities. So it's Ashville, it's

1708
01:42:50,240 --> 01:42:54,719
Speaker 4: Colorado Springs, Uh, it's you know. I look at Kevin

1709
01:42:54,800 --> 01:42:58,280
Speaker 4: Kylie's district in northern California, which has some of the

1710
01:42:58,320 --> 01:43:02,280
Speaker 4: Tahoe region and some of the Sacramento suburbs, and that

1711
01:43:02,439 --> 01:43:05,880
Speaker 4: hasn't really been in play recently. I was surprised that

1712
01:43:05,920 --> 01:43:07,920
Speaker 4: the d trip didn't have it on its list. But

1713
01:43:08,720 --> 01:43:11,400
Speaker 4: those are the kinds of seats, you know. Back at

1714
01:43:11,400 --> 01:43:15,920
Speaker 4: this point in twenty seventeen, for example, even though Dave

1715
01:43:16,040 --> 01:43:19,760
Speaker 4: Bratt had beaten Eric Canter, you know, that seat was

1716
01:43:19,800 --> 01:43:24,000
Speaker 4: not really on people's radars. But the Richmond suburbs were

1717
01:43:24,080 --> 01:43:27,160
Speaker 4: moving and Democrats got a great candidate and Abigail Spanberger,

1718
01:43:27,479 --> 01:43:28,800
Speaker 4: and by the end of the cycle it was a

1719
01:43:28,800 --> 01:43:32,040
Speaker 4: toss up. I think we're going to see similar dynamics now.

1720
01:43:32,120 --> 01:43:35,479
Speaker 4: And keep in mind that Democrats are a lot closer

1721
01:43:35,479 --> 01:43:38,600
Speaker 4: to the majority today than they were in seventeen.

1722
01:43:39,400 --> 01:43:42,879
Speaker 1: Obviously, the other phenomenon that's going to impact your world

1723
01:43:43,080 --> 01:43:47,600
Speaker 1: and your life of handicapping is going to be the retirements,

1724
01:43:48,120 --> 01:43:53,240
Speaker 1: and you know, it's you know, I look at Kim Reynolds,

1725
01:43:53,280 --> 01:43:54,760
Speaker 1: and even though that's not a house race, I look

1726
01:43:54,800 --> 01:43:57,880
Speaker 1: at Kim Reynolds because of the effect it could have.

1727
01:43:58,040 --> 01:44:01,200
Speaker 1: Right she chooses not to run for reelection Iowa already

1728
01:44:01,200 --> 01:44:04,200
Speaker 1: you have I think all I think all three, all

1729
01:44:04,520 --> 01:44:08,599
Speaker 1: three of the four Republican House members there have been floated.

1730
01:44:09,080 --> 01:44:13,479
Speaker 1: And I assume anybody who can run statewide in a

1731
01:44:13,520 --> 01:44:17,400
Speaker 1: swing district that slightly leans Republican is probably looking at

1732
01:44:17,439 --> 01:44:20,040
Speaker 1: it quite seriously because they look at this environment. If

1733
01:44:20,080 --> 01:44:24,880
Speaker 1: I mean, if I were in Iowa Republican I in

1734
01:44:24,520 --> 01:44:28,240
Speaker 1: the first second or third, I would sit there and say, hmmm,

1735
01:44:29,520 --> 01:44:31,920
Speaker 1: winning state wide might be easier than winning my district.

1736
01:44:32,920 --> 01:44:36,080
Speaker 4: It could be. I wouldn't be surprised if Zach Nunn

1737
01:44:36,520 --> 01:44:38,000
Speaker 4: took a serious look at it. I would be a

1738
01:44:38,040 --> 01:44:41,000
Speaker 4: little bit more surprised if Marionette Miller Meeks, who has

1739
01:44:41,080 --> 01:44:43,519
Speaker 4: kind of struggled to lock out down her district. I

1740
01:44:43,520 --> 01:44:47,360
Speaker 4: don't know if she has that statewide appeal, but.

1741
01:44:47,120 --> 01:44:50,519
Speaker 1: But Hinton might, Hintson might. Sure sure she's looking at

1742
01:44:50,560 --> 01:44:50,800
Speaker 1: it too.

1743
01:44:50,840 --> 01:44:52,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you.

1744
01:44:51,960 --> 01:44:56,280
Speaker 4: Know, I think it is the perfect uh met A

1745
01:44:56,600 --> 01:45:01,240
Speaker 4: barometer for twenty six because if there's a place where

1746
01:45:01,560 --> 01:45:05,519
Speaker 4: tariffs should cost Republicans locally, it's all farm states.

1747
01:45:05,600 --> 01:45:07,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, no, I'm curious. I mean, look, I'm

1748
01:45:08,280 --> 01:45:11,559
Speaker 1: I said to somebody, if I were in a coma

1749
01:45:12,080 --> 01:45:14,559
Speaker 1: and didn't wake up until the day after twenty six

1750
01:45:15,280 --> 01:45:18,280
Speaker 1: and you told me Democrats won the Senate and the House,

1751
01:45:19,080 --> 01:45:23,519
Speaker 1: I'd say, Okay, there must be a Democratic senator in

1752
01:45:23,760 --> 01:45:27,920
Speaker 1: Nebraska or Kansas. Right, like that is it feels like

1753
01:45:28,000 --> 01:45:30,920
Speaker 1: those farm states, it's a double whammy for them.

1754
01:45:30,960 --> 01:45:31,200
Speaker 2: Right.

1755
01:45:31,400 --> 01:45:34,800
Speaker 1: The cuts in aid were already painful. Throw in the

1756
01:45:35,000 --> 01:45:38,240
Speaker 1: tag tariffs, and all of a sudden you have a

1757
01:45:38,280 --> 01:45:41,600
Speaker 1: recipe for a potential disaster in those states for the

1758
01:45:41,640 --> 01:45:42,439
Speaker 1: Republican Party.

1759
01:45:43,360 --> 01:45:47,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, and yet Democrats have been trying to make a

1760
01:45:47,240 --> 01:45:49,720
Speaker 4: case that that would happen there for years and they've

1761
01:45:49,720 --> 01:45:54,600
Speaker 4: got out. Nebraska got uncomfortably close for deb Fisher.

1762
01:45:54,800 --> 01:45:57,840
Speaker 1: And Kansas about a decade ago got uncomfortably close for

1763
01:45:57,920 --> 01:46:01,479
Speaker 1: Pat Roberts. And we know, like I'm that Kansas is

1764
01:46:01,479 --> 01:46:04,320
Speaker 1: on its way to swing state status. When I say

1765
01:46:04,320 --> 01:46:07,040
Speaker 1: on its way may take it's like watching Virginia No.

1766
01:46:07,200 --> 01:46:07,439
Speaker 2: Four.

1767
01:46:07,760 --> 01:46:11,000
Speaker 1: Right, it may not happen the next cycle, but you

1768
01:46:11,040 --> 01:46:15,000
Speaker 1: know there's a lot of elements in Kansas that look

1769
01:46:15,160 --> 01:46:17,840
Speaker 1: that have a little bit in common with some of

1770
01:46:17,880 --> 01:46:18,920
Speaker 1: these states that have shifted.

1771
01:46:19,000 --> 01:46:19,120
Speaker 2: Right.

1772
01:46:19,160 --> 01:46:22,599
Speaker 1: You have some bigger university towns that are expanding. You

1773
01:46:22,600 --> 01:46:24,280
Speaker 1: have a couple of metro markets, and then you have

1774
01:46:24,320 --> 01:46:28,040
Speaker 1: that Kansas City market that has sort of expanded out

1775
01:46:28,040 --> 01:46:30,320
Speaker 1: into those Kansas City suburbs of Kansas. And you're like

1776
01:46:30,600 --> 01:46:32,920
Speaker 1: sitting there, You're like, hey, wait a minute, We've now

1777
01:46:32,920 --> 01:46:35,439
Speaker 1: had sixteen years of Democratic governors over the last twenty

1778
01:46:35,439 --> 01:46:38,200
Speaker 1: four Like something's up here. You know, they're getting more

1779
01:46:38,280 --> 01:46:42,080
Speaker 1: comfortable being a two party state, right, And you look

1780
01:46:42,120 --> 01:46:44,960
Speaker 1: at you know, so I sort of am more bullish

1781
01:46:45,080 --> 01:46:47,960
Speaker 1: for Democrats in Kansas than I really am in Nebraska, Iowa.

1782
01:46:48,000 --> 01:46:52,800
Speaker 4: Frankly, Yeah, that's a great point. It's gotten a lot closer.

1783
01:46:52,880 --> 01:46:56,040
Speaker 4: And I think the fracture in the Republican Party in

1784
01:46:56,120 --> 01:46:59,920
Speaker 4: Kansas has been more severe than in other states. There's

1785
01:47:00,120 --> 01:47:03,360
Speaker 4: something about the culture there that you know, they've they've

1786
01:47:03,400 --> 01:47:06,040
Speaker 4: just been at war with each other for years in

1787
01:47:06,080 --> 01:47:09,080
Speaker 4: a way that has made its elevated Democrats.

1788
01:47:08,600 --> 01:47:10,720
Speaker 1: Don't you think in the uniparty state and the one

1789
01:47:10,720 --> 01:47:13,599
Speaker 1: party states not uniparty excuse me, the one party states

1790
01:47:14,280 --> 01:47:17,760
Speaker 1: like you see this over time, right where you know,

1791
01:47:19,200 --> 01:47:22,360
Speaker 1: I always say, you know, politic supports vacuums, and in

1792
01:47:22,400 --> 01:47:25,639
Speaker 1: one party state, the vacuum is the opposition, and if

1793
01:47:25,640 --> 01:47:28,280
Speaker 1: the other political party can't be the opposition, then then

1794
01:47:28,360 --> 01:47:32,080
Speaker 1: other movements become it. Right. We're seeing that in Texas, right,

1795
01:47:32,120 --> 01:47:34,479
Speaker 1: there seems to be a really big split there in

1796
01:47:34,520 --> 01:47:38,000
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. It hasn't yet accrued to the benefit

1797
01:47:38,000 --> 01:47:40,800
Speaker 1: of the Democrats, but look at who controls the House. Right.

1798
01:47:40,840 --> 01:47:43,680
Speaker 1: It certainly changed the nature of the speakership in the

1799
01:47:43,720 --> 01:47:47,920
Speaker 1: Texas House. We've seen it get a Democrat elected governor

1800
01:47:47,960 --> 01:47:53,640
Speaker 1: in Kansas. You've seen it even you know these in Oklahoma.

1801
01:47:54,880 --> 01:47:58,960
Speaker 1: It made a race competitive because the the tribes became

1802
01:47:59,000 --> 01:48:01,479
Speaker 1: the opposition party, right, you know, and they sort of

1803
01:48:01,800 --> 01:48:04,680
Speaker 1: play in primaries and they play sometimes in generals, right,

1804
01:48:05,439 --> 01:48:08,679
Speaker 1: I know. I feel like we see this a lot

1805
01:48:08,760 --> 01:48:11,320
Speaker 1: in one party states, where a fracture And I don't

1806
01:48:11,320 --> 01:48:14,919
Speaker 1: know whether it's just inevitable, right because politics abhorse those vacuums,

1807
01:48:15,280 --> 01:48:18,439
Speaker 1: or if it's something specific in the moment that we're

1808
01:48:18,439 --> 01:48:18,880
Speaker 1: living in.

1809
01:48:19,439 --> 01:48:23,920
Speaker 4: I totally agree with you and the other component that

1810
01:48:24,000 --> 01:48:29,240
Speaker 4: makes Kansas different from a Texas. Those states don't have

1811
01:48:29,479 --> 01:48:32,200
Speaker 4: Hispanic components that are moving towards Trump in a sizable way.

1812
01:48:33,400 --> 01:48:36,360
Speaker 1: Although Kansas has a Hispanic population that's over ten percent

1813
01:48:36,360 --> 01:48:39,160
Speaker 1: of the it's you know, it's a sneaky I remember

1814
01:48:39,200 --> 01:48:41,200
Speaker 1: when doing the states that had ten percent or more

1815
01:48:41,200 --> 01:48:44,719
Speaker 1: of Latinos. This is a decade ago. Remember being surprised

1816
01:48:44,720 --> 01:48:46,720
Speaker 1: that Kansas said, I think, snuck into the top ten.

1817
01:48:47,200 --> 01:48:49,920
Speaker 4: But as a part of the electorate, you know, that's

1818
01:48:49,920 --> 01:48:51,960
Speaker 4: a state where a lot of the Hispanic population is

1819
01:48:52,000 --> 01:48:57,680
Speaker 4: non voting. So yeah, but fascinating, you know when you

1820
01:48:57,680 --> 01:49:01,240
Speaker 4: think of where democrats opportunities will lie the future and

1821
01:49:01,439 --> 01:49:04,960
Speaker 4: play out the twenty thirty census where you know, if

1822
01:49:05,080 --> 01:49:09,200
Speaker 4: the current projections are accurate, and Florida and Texas each

1823
01:49:09,240 --> 01:49:12,680
Speaker 4: gain four seats, and Idaho gains a seat, and you know,

1824
01:49:13,120 --> 01:49:17,200
Speaker 4: New York loses three and California loses four, that's the

1825
01:49:17,240 --> 01:49:21,680
Speaker 4: equivalent of Massachusetts flipping from blue to red.

1826
01:49:22,560 --> 01:49:26,360
Speaker 1: I'm curious about that though, can you how can Texas

1827
01:49:26,400 --> 01:49:27,960
Speaker 1: create more Republican seats though?

1828
01:49:28,040 --> 01:49:28,200
Speaker 2: Right?

1829
01:49:28,400 --> 01:49:31,120
Speaker 1: Are they going to run into problems? Yes, you know,

1830
01:49:31,200 --> 01:49:32,600
Speaker 1: you have this sort of the benefit if you have

1831
01:49:32,640 --> 01:49:35,439
Speaker 1: to add seats. I think Florida and Texas is going

1832
01:49:35,479 --> 01:49:38,639
Speaker 1: to have a hard time guaranteeing them to be anything

1833
01:49:38,680 --> 01:49:41,479
Speaker 1: more than an even split. I think because of the

1834
01:49:41,479 --> 01:49:42,719
Speaker 1: way the population has grown.

1835
01:49:44,120 --> 01:49:45,840
Speaker 4: I think there are plenty of ways to make those

1836
01:49:46,320 --> 01:49:50,920
Speaker 4: Republican seats, especially given the trend line in South Texas

1837
01:49:50,960 --> 01:49:53,400
Speaker 4: and South Florida. Because keep in mind a lot of

1838
01:49:53,439 --> 01:49:59,160
Speaker 4: the districts that Republicans drew in both states to be

1839
01:49:59,479 --> 01:50:03,479
Speaker 4: solidly Democratic seats, they're looking less solid. Look at look

1840
01:50:03,520 --> 01:50:06,759
Speaker 4: at the presidential margin and Jared Moskowitz's district or Debbie

1841
01:50:06,800 --> 01:50:09,120
Speaker 4: Wasserman Schaltz er Lowess Franco seats.

1842
01:50:09,360 --> 01:50:12,679
Speaker 1: Or county in particular, there's more of a Palm Beach

1843
01:50:12,720 --> 01:50:16,679
Speaker 1: County is fascinating. That's been moving right, you know obviously,

1844
01:50:17,400 --> 01:50:20,200
Speaker 1: you know people have I think Trump literally has attracted

1845
01:50:20,280 --> 01:50:21,559
Speaker 1: voters to move to the county.

1846
01:50:21,640 --> 01:50:26,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Broward is now kind of a blue island. Yes, Democrats,

1847
01:50:26,280 --> 01:50:29,759
Speaker 4: as you know, are now a six or seven county

1848
01:50:29,800 --> 01:50:30,639
Speaker 4: party in Florida.

1849
01:50:31,080 --> 01:50:33,920
Speaker 1: No, it's it's it is fascinating how they're all packed in.

1850
01:50:33,960 --> 01:50:37,439
Speaker 1: That's why. So maybe Florida is easier than Texas would

1851
01:50:37,479 --> 01:50:40,400
Speaker 1: be for them to do this, if you because outside

1852
01:50:40,400 --> 01:50:43,920
Speaker 1: of South Texas, which I take your point there. You know,

1853
01:50:44,439 --> 01:50:47,559
Speaker 1: the the additions are going to come, like between Austin

1854
01:50:47,600 --> 01:50:50,960
Speaker 1: and San Antonio, right and and that area. I just

1855
01:50:51,000 --> 01:50:54,080
Speaker 1: don't know how much you can hub and I mean

1856
01:50:54,120 --> 01:50:56,920
Speaker 1: they did the hub and spoke of Austin, which helped them,

1857
01:50:57,840 --> 01:50:59,920
Speaker 1: but can you hub and spoke all these major metro

1858
01:51:00,320 --> 01:51:01,599
Speaker 1: in Texas.

1859
01:51:02,200 --> 01:51:07,200
Speaker 4: If enough Hispanic voters are moving Republicans way yeah by

1860
01:51:07,200 --> 01:51:10,599
Speaker 4: that point so interesting, Yeah, but that's far.

1861
01:51:10,520 --> 01:51:16,800
Speaker 1: Out it is. We talk about this on the Republican side. California,

1862
01:51:18,000 --> 01:51:19,960
Speaker 1: you know, they're they're the sort of the big one

1863
01:51:20,000 --> 01:51:25,280
Speaker 1: party blue states. It's not as if they seem healthier

1864
01:51:25,400 --> 01:51:29,640
Speaker 1: or safer. Ironically, I wouldn't want to be an establishment

1865
01:51:29,680 --> 01:51:33,519
Speaker 1: Democrat in California for instance, this coming cycle, even though

1866
01:51:34,360 --> 01:51:37,639
Speaker 1: you certainly wouldn't want to be a Trump Republican either, Right.

1867
01:51:37,800 --> 01:51:40,200
Speaker 1: I'd feel the same way about New York with you know,

1868
01:51:40,320 --> 01:51:43,479
Speaker 1: Hulkal and things like that. How are you seeing those

1869
01:51:44,200 --> 01:51:50,040
Speaker 1: those bluer states that aren't you know, and aren't really

1870
01:51:50,080 --> 01:51:54,080
Speaker 1: they're very allergic to Trump Republicans, but you can feel

1871
01:51:54,120 --> 01:51:56,280
Speaker 1: these sort of I don't know how to put this

1872
01:51:56,400 --> 01:52:01,280
Speaker 1: sort of fatigue with the conventional Democratic leadership, there's no doubt.

1873
01:52:01,360 --> 01:52:04,559
Speaker 4: And yet there's been a vacuum on the Republican side

1874
01:52:04,640 --> 01:52:09,599
Speaker 4: of political talent. Who is really stepping up in California,

1875
01:52:09,600 --> 01:52:15,080
Speaker 4: Who can compete with the Schwarzenegger phenomenon. No one right

1876
01:52:15,640 --> 01:52:19,639
Speaker 4: and Kathy Hokeel was very vulnerable in twenty twenty two,

1877
01:52:20,520 --> 01:52:25,280
Speaker 4: and yet Leezelden was not the right Republican to beat her.

1878
01:52:25,800 --> 01:52:31,080
Speaker 4: I think had Republicans nominated, you know, a decade ago,

1879
01:52:31,080 --> 01:52:33,400
Speaker 4: there was a Congressman from the Hudson Valley, Chris Gibson,

1880
01:52:34,280 --> 01:52:40,680
Speaker 4: who had a military background, very bipartisan, absolutely, you know,

1881
01:52:40,800 --> 01:52:42,640
Speaker 4: could have broken through in that kind of coliment. I

1882
01:52:42,640 --> 01:52:45,559
Speaker 4: think a Mike Lawler would be much more formidable in

1883
01:52:45,600 --> 01:52:46,360
Speaker 4: that scenario.

1884
01:52:47,040 --> 01:52:49,599
Speaker 1: Well, I was just going to say, how concerned our

1885
01:52:49,640 --> 01:52:54,120
Speaker 1: House Republicans about losing guys like make Lawler to statewide races.

1886
01:52:54,760 --> 01:52:57,760
Speaker 4: They should be very concerned, And there's every reason for

1887
01:52:58,360 --> 01:53:00,400
Speaker 4: these Republicans to take a good look look at a

1888
01:53:00,520 --> 01:53:01,599
Speaker 4: gubernatorial race.

1889
01:53:02,000 --> 01:53:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it makes a ton of sense to me.

1890
01:53:05,800 --> 01:53:08,160
Speaker 1: Let's talk about these twenty five elections, because there's always

1891
01:53:08,200 --> 01:53:15,439
Speaker 1: been this interesting historical I guess Canary, if you will,

1892
01:53:15,520 --> 01:53:21,599
Speaker 1: with the Virginia State Assembly and then following years makeup

1893
01:53:21,760 --> 01:53:27,320
Speaker 1: of the House. Given how frankly uncompetitive most of the

1894
01:53:27,320 --> 01:53:30,519
Speaker 1: seats are in the State Assembly in Virginia, it's still

1895
01:53:30,560 --> 01:53:33,519
Speaker 1: a head scratcher to me that it has served as

1896
01:53:33,520 --> 01:53:35,559
Speaker 1: such a good barometer. But do you expect it to

1897
01:53:35,560 --> 01:53:37,880
Speaker 1: be a barometer We ot to watch again in twenty

1898
01:53:37,920 --> 01:53:40,000
Speaker 1: five as a way to tell us a little bit

1899
01:53:40,040 --> 01:53:40,720
Speaker 1: about twenty six.

1900
01:53:40,920 --> 01:53:44,600
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, and I expect Democrats to gain seats in

1901
01:53:44,680 --> 01:53:48,840
Speaker 4: the House of Delegates. The map that was imposed was

1902
01:53:49,040 --> 01:53:53,120
Speaker 4: a court special master drawn map that does have a

1903
01:53:53,160 --> 01:53:56,719
Speaker 4: fair number of competitive districts, and right now it's fifty

1904
01:53:56,720 --> 01:53:59,560
Speaker 4: one to forty nine in favor of Democrats. You know,

1905
01:54:00,000 --> 01:54:03,519
Speaker 4: I would expect a few seats in places like suburbs

1906
01:54:03,560 --> 01:54:07,840
Speaker 4: of Richmond or Virginia Beach or you know, the outskirts

1907
01:54:07,880 --> 01:54:11,240
Speaker 4: of northern Virginia to flip in this environment where Democrats

1908
01:54:11,280 --> 01:54:13,960
Speaker 4: are just super charged on turnout. I might get in

1909
01:54:14,000 --> 01:54:17,960
Speaker 4: trouble with work and saying this, but right now I

1910
01:54:17,960 --> 01:54:21,960
Speaker 4: don't view the Virginia goluminatorial race as particularly competitive.

1911
01:54:22,120 --> 01:54:24,519
Speaker 1: So I don't either, and I you're right. It's sort

1912
01:54:24,520 --> 01:54:26,439
Speaker 1: of one of those things where You're like, should I

1913
01:54:26,439 --> 01:54:28,920
Speaker 1: be saying this out loud this early? But it's like,

1914
01:54:29,960 --> 01:54:31,920
Speaker 1: you know, when some seers does not strike me as

1915
01:54:31,920 --> 01:54:35,920
Speaker 1: somebody that can win voters in northern Virginia, Abigail Spamberger

1916
01:54:35,960 --> 01:54:38,600
Speaker 1: strikes me as somebody who's not Terry mcculloff. And I'll

1917
01:54:38,640 --> 01:54:40,600
Speaker 1: just leave it at that. Right, going to be very

1918
01:54:40,640 --> 01:54:45,680
Speaker 1: hard to make seem like some just you know, outside liberal.

1919
01:54:47,800 --> 01:54:50,480
Speaker 1: You know, this feels like Ralph Northam all over again.

1920
01:54:51,520 --> 01:54:57,040
Speaker 4: Well, it could be even more of a beatdown even Well,

1921
01:54:57,040 --> 01:55:01,120
Speaker 4: First of all, Virginia voted for Hair by five points,

1922
01:55:01,120 --> 01:55:03,080
Speaker 4: So that's a starting point, right.

1923
01:55:02,920 --> 01:55:04,640
Speaker 1: What happens when you lay off a bunch of government

1924
01:55:04,680 --> 01:55:06,680
Speaker 1: workers in northern Virginia? Does that make it more likely

1925
01:55:06,720 --> 01:55:07,960
Speaker 1: to vote day or less?

1926
01:55:08,240 --> 01:55:08,400
Speaker 2: Right?

1927
01:55:09,040 --> 01:55:11,880
Speaker 4: You know, But on top of on top of the

1928
01:55:11,960 --> 01:55:18,240
Speaker 4: typical turnout dynamic of Trump voters falling off by a

1929
01:55:18,280 --> 01:55:21,440
Speaker 4: lot more, you have all those federal workforce issues, and

1930
01:55:21,480 --> 01:55:24,280
Speaker 4: you have a very talented communicator in span Burger who

1931
01:55:24,360 --> 01:55:29,560
Speaker 4: has made considerable inroads by the way, into the rural

1932
01:55:29,680 --> 01:55:32,680
Speaker 4: central part of the state and the ag Community Act.

1933
01:55:32,800 --> 01:55:37,720
Speaker 4: You know, tomorrow I'm going to be speaking to the Virginia.

1934
01:55:37,400 --> 01:55:41,200
Speaker 1: Cast signposting this when you say tomorrow, we're talking Saursday,

1935
01:55:41,200 --> 01:55:43,800
Speaker 1: April fifteenth. But on so on Wednesday you're going to

1936
01:55:43,880 --> 01:55:46,520
Speaker 1: be speaking, Yeah, go ahead, Yeah, I'm.

1937
01:55:46,360 --> 01:55:50,040
Speaker 4: Going to be speaking to the Virginia Cattleman's Association. Their leadership,

1938
01:55:51,120 --> 01:55:54,640
Speaker 4: they think very highly of span Burger, and you know.

1939
01:55:54,560 --> 01:55:57,640
Speaker 2: Their members, they're going to be pragmatic, right right, But.

1940
01:55:58,400 --> 01:56:02,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, she's done. She's done the work to build those coalitions,

1941
01:56:02,480 --> 01:56:05,920
Speaker 4: and Sears is not going to be in a position

1942
01:56:05,960 --> 01:56:09,960
Speaker 4: to replicate what Glenn Youngkin spent in twenty twenty one,

1943
01:56:10,240 --> 01:56:12,000
Speaker 4: or how he was able to get out his message

1944
01:56:12,000 --> 01:56:14,840
Speaker 4: at a time when voters were feeling the pinch of

1945
01:56:14,840 --> 01:56:18,640
Speaker 4: inflation and that was a kind of fresh and salient

1946
01:56:18,680 --> 01:56:21,960
Speaker 4: issue and the grocery tax and all that. Now the

1947
01:56:22,000 --> 01:56:23,000
Speaker 4: shoe is on the other foot.

1948
01:56:24,920 --> 01:56:27,240
Speaker 1: I assume New Jersey's a little more complicated because you

1949
01:56:27,280 --> 01:56:30,600
Speaker 1: do have a democratic governor who's term limited, so there

1950
01:56:30,680 --> 01:56:32,560
Speaker 1: is if you look at the and this is a

1951
01:56:32,600 --> 01:56:36,160
Speaker 1: real phenomenon, right. I always say this, like I think

1952
01:56:36,200 --> 01:56:38,480
Speaker 1: about this with California. When people say Kamala Harris was

1953
01:56:38,520 --> 01:56:40,880
Speaker 1: thinking about running for governor, I think, well, I wouldn't

1954
01:56:40,920 --> 01:56:43,960
Speaker 1: do that. Sixteen straight years of democratic governorship. I'm you know,

1955
01:56:44,200 --> 01:56:46,480
Speaker 1: maybe they elect another democratic governor, but it won't be

1956
01:56:46,520 --> 01:56:49,560
Speaker 1: a conventional democrat, right, I have a feeling it's going

1957
01:56:49,640 --> 01:56:52,080
Speaker 1: to be somebody who isn't an elected official or all

1958
01:56:52,120 --> 01:56:56,160
Speaker 1: that stuff. So that's one force in New Jersey, and

1959
01:56:56,200 --> 01:56:59,160
Speaker 1: the other one is obviously no Trump and all of that.

1960
01:57:01,040 --> 01:57:03,280
Speaker 1: I actually find New Jersey is going to be in

1961
01:57:03,320 --> 01:57:07,320
Speaker 1: some ways more telling to me than Virginia. Virginia. If

1962
01:57:07,320 --> 01:57:10,560
Speaker 1: Spamberger doesn't win by double digits, then something is wrong. Like,

1963
01:57:10,880 --> 01:57:13,080
Speaker 1: and I'm being a little maybe eight or nine is

1964
01:57:13,120 --> 01:57:15,360
Speaker 1: still an impressive victory and I shouldn't sneeze at that.

1965
01:57:15,760 --> 01:57:18,760
Speaker 1: But I'm with you, I I all the ingredients are

1966
01:57:18,760 --> 01:57:21,440
Speaker 1: there for something that could be a wipeout, right. It

1967
01:57:21,480 --> 01:57:24,840
Speaker 1: could be what McDonald did. And you know, people forget

1968
01:57:24,880 --> 01:57:28,200
Speaker 1: Bob McDonald won by like thirty points, right, some remember.

1969
01:57:28,080 --> 01:57:29,920
Speaker 4: It got out It got fifty eight forty one.

1970
01:57:30,000 --> 01:57:33,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, okay, that's not thirty so but

1971
01:57:33,480 --> 01:57:36,640
Speaker 1: close to twenty, which is a pretty tough thing to

1972
01:57:36,680 --> 01:57:39,760
Speaker 1: do for a Republican. You know, I still can't imagine

1973
01:57:39,760 --> 01:57:43,720
Speaker 1: her crossing sixty, but you know, still anything over over

1974
01:57:43,800 --> 01:57:47,240
Speaker 1: fifty five is going to be impressive. New Jersey has

1975
01:57:47,280 --> 01:57:50,000
Speaker 1: those counter things to it, right, and that's what I'm

1976
01:57:50,280 --> 01:57:52,680
Speaker 1: I'm very curious to see how that plays out.

1977
01:57:53,200 --> 01:57:58,520
Speaker 4: It's so true and New Jersey It's politics are a

1978
01:57:58,560 --> 01:58:01,040
Speaker 4: whole lot different. I have, I have our time. I

1979
01:58:01,080 --> 01:58:04,440
Speaker 4: have a hard time wrapping my head around it. And

1980
01:58:04,440 --> 01:58:07,360
Speaker 4: you're a local when I grew up there, because yeah,

1981
01:58:07,560 --> 01:58:11,120
Speaker 4: because I grew up in a machine dominated state and

1982
01:58:11,160 --> 01:58:13,160
Speaker 4: then they got just in the last couple of years,

1983
01:58:13,160 --> 01:58:17,040
Speaker 4: got rid of the county line. And it used to

1984
01:58:17,120 --> 01:58:21,080
Speaker 4: be that the machine dictated which candidates in the primary

1985
01:58:21,120 --> 01:58:23,240
Speaker 4: were out in Siberia where you'd never find them.

1986
01:58:23,400 --> 01:58:26,520
Speaker 1: Basically, New Jersey was not a small d democratic state,

1987
01:58:26,600 --> 01:58:27,960
Speaker 1: hard stop, okay.

1988
01:58:27,600 --> 01:58:31,120
Speaker 4: Exactly, and so you wouldn't have ended up with Senator

1989
01:58:31,400 --> 01:58:34,760
Speaker 4: Andy kim Uh. I was a kid growing up there

1990
01:58:34,840 --> 01:58:39,480
Speaker 4: right right. And now, uh, you know, look at Mikey

1991
01:58:39,560 --> 01:58:43,680
Speaker 4: Cheryl and Josh Gotttheimer, and you've got two suburban Democrats

1992
01:58:43,760 --> 01:58:46,240
Speaker 4: who have a lot of money. They're a lot closer

1993
01:58:46,240 --> 01:58:49,360
Speaker 4: to where the donor and power base has moved in

1994
01:58:49,400 --> 01:58:52,560
Speaker 4: the Democratic Party, and they're in a position to kind

1995
01:58:52,600 --> 01:58:59,440
Speaker 4: of overpower these these long standing products of machine politics.

1996
01:58:59,560 --> 01:59:04,360
Speaker 4: And look Stephen Philip has been a long time reformer

1997
01:59:04,440 --> 01:59:08,080
Speaker 4: and self styled you know, change agent, but he's from

1998
01:59:08,160 --> 01:59:12,080
Speaker 4: Hudson County. And then Steve Sweeney from South Jersey, who

1999
01:59:12,120 --> 01:59:15,040
Speaker 4: is really one of the bosses there. But that's not

2000
01:59:15,080 --> 01:59:18,000
Speaker 4: where the base of the Democratic Party is anymore. And

2001
01:59:18,080 --> 01:59:21,920
Speaker 4: so Cheryl, by virtue of her biography, could end up

2002
01:59:22,120 --> 01:59:27,480
Speaker 4: joining her twenty eighteen classmate Spanberger as a rising governor.

2003
01:59:28,400 --> 01:59:31,320
Speaker 1: It's, you know, the power of those two winning. I

2004
01:59:31,360 --> 01:59:34,760
Speaker 1: think might be back this developing conventional wisdom on the

2005
01:59:34,840 --> 01:59:38,280
Speaker 1: left that the Democrats shouldn't tap a woman for twenty

2006
01:59:38,320 --> 01:59:40,840
Speaker 1: twenty eight It'll be interesting. I'll be very curious how

2007
01:59:40,840 --> 01:59:44,919
Speaker 1: that conversation changes if what you just described happens.

2008
01:59:45,080 --> 01:59:47,160
Speaker 4: Well, this has been my theory for a long time.

2009
01:59:47,360 --> 01:59:50,320
Speaker 4: I think that that class of twenty eighteen on the

2010
01:59:50,320 --> 01:59:55,680
Speaker 4: Democratic side, of the women with national security backgrounds, that

2011
01:59:55,880 --> 01:59:59,720
Speaker 4: is the formula. Yeah, yeah, that's the formula that has

2012
01:59:59,800 --> 02:00:02,120
Speaker 4: worked with a broader swath of the electorate.

2013
02:00:02,560 --> 02:00:03,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

2014
02:00:03,600 --> 02:00:07,120
Speaker 4: You know, Hillary Clinton by virtue of being part of

2015
02:00:07,600 --> 02:00:11,440
Speaker 4: political dynasty, Kamala Harris by virtue of you know, being

2016
02:00:11,480 --> 02:00:14,200
Speaker 4: a California Liberal, they could not break through in that

2017
02:00:14,240 --> 02:00:17,600
Speaker 4: same way but there are so many Democratic women who

2018
02:00:17,680 --> 02:00:22,040
Speaker 4: have broken through and swing districts with the same kind

2019
02:00:22,080 --> 02:00:27,840
Speaker 4: of bipartisan formula that that Spanburger Cheryl Slockin have used.

2020
02:00:28,360 --> 02:00:32,680
Speaker 4: That's where I think the future lies for Democrats doing

2021
02:00:32,720 --> 02:00:33,840
Speaker 4: well in a presidential race.

2022
02:00:35,280 --> 02:00:37,280
Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to wrap it up here, but

2023
02:00:37,320 --> 02:00:41,600
Speaker 1: I want to I'm going to start, you know, the

2024
02:00:41,640 --> 02:00:43,560
Speaker 1: when you know everybody's going to want to know is

2025
02:00:43,560 --> 02:00:47,760
Speaker 1: a wave developing? And my answer on these things always

2026
02:00:47,840 --> 02:00:50,680
Speaker 1: is you actually don't know about a wave until October

2027
02:00:50,760 --> 02:00:55,080
Speaker 1: at the earliest. We can talk about all the ingredients

2028
02:00:55,120 --> 02:00:58,000
Speaker 1: you want early on. Do you do you agree with

2029
02:00:58,000 --> 02:01:03,360
Speaker 1: that or is there is there some early sign that

2030
02:01:03,560 --> 02:01:05,680
Speaker 1: we will look back on and say we should have

2031
02:01:05,680 --> 02:01:07,960
Speaker 1: paid We should pay attention to these early signs.

2032
02:01:08,960 --> 02:01:13,160
Speaker 4: I mean October of the election year or the October before.

2033
02:01:13,160 --> 02:01:15,280
Speaker 1: No, it's October election year. I feel like you really

2034
02:01:15,280 --> 02:01:18,040
Speaker 1: don't know because it can feel wavish and then everything

2035
02:01:18,200 --> 02:01:21,640
Speaker 1: you know then turnout patterns go back to normal, and yes,

2036
02:01:21,680 --> 02:01:23,320
Speaker 1: there might be a three or four point advantage to

2037
02:01:23,360 --> 02:01:24,960
Speaker 1: one party, et cetera, et cetera.

2038
02:01:25,480 --> 02:01:28,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'd say, you know, in twenty eighteen, the one

2039
02:01:28,400 --> 02:01:32,000
Speaker 4: caveat was Kavanaugh late right right in that cycle. On

2040
02:01:32,080 --> 02:01:35,600
Speaker 4: that that happened, I might have kept some Senate seats

2041
02:01:35,640 --> 02:01:42,800
Speaker 4: in Republican's column. Look, the midterms in twenty six they're

2042
02:01:42,800 --> 02:01:44,960
Speaker 4: going to be a lot lower turnout than than the

2043
02:01:45,000 --> 02:01:47,040
Speaker 4: presidential obviously, but they're going to be a lot higher

2044
02:01:47,080 --> 02:01:50,720
Speaker 4: turnout than the specials, and so that kind of reduces

2045
02:01:50,760 --> 02:01:54,080
Speaker 4: the magnitude of the swing. But we can already see

2046
02:01:54,240 --> 02:01:59,000
Speaker 4: very familiar patterns. And at the end of the day,

2047
02:01:59,320 --> 02:02:02,560
Speaker 4: I think the biggest problem for Republicans is that Trump

2048
02:02:02,680 --> 02:02:06,080
Speaker 4: does not really care all that much about what happens

2049
02:02:06,080 --> 02:02:10,080
Speaker 4: to Republicans other than himself, right, And that's a big

2050
02:02:10,120 --> 02:02:14,000
Speaker 4: difference versus previous presidents, who would you know, obsess a

2051
02:02:14,040 --> 02:02:16,960
Speaker 4: lot over a certain mid term outcome or minimizing their

2052
02:02:17,000 --> 02:02:22,160
Speaker 4: party's losses. So you know this, this could could be big,

2053
02:02:22,360 --> 02:02:25,240
Speaker 4: but as we said, big by today's standards.

2054
02:02:25,840 --> 02:02:29,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty seats, yep, which would be a huge shift

2055
02:02:29,320 --> 02:02:34,160
Speaker 1: given how their House majorities have been frankly over the

2056
02:02:34,240 --> 02:02:37,800
Speaker 1: last six years. Now. Anyway, Dave Wasserman, I could keep going,

2057
02:02:38,040 --> 02:02:40,520
Speaker 1: and we will do this again. I'd love to check

2058
02:02:40,560 --> 02:02:42,880
Speaker 1: in with you every quarter, almost like a quarterly report.

2059
02:02:42,960 --> 02:02:46,360
Speaker 1: And it feels like, well, you're like Democrats have a

2060
02:02:46,440 --> 02:02:48,800
Speaker 1: chance at higher earnings over here and Republicans have a

2061
02:02:48,880 --> 02:02:51,200
Speaker 1: chance at lower earnings. That feels like where we are

2062
02:02:51,280 --> 02:02:54,320
Speaker 1: right now. If you are buying stock, you'd probably buy

2063
02:02:54,320 --> 02:02:57,080
Speaker 1: Democratic shares before you buy Republican chairs in the house

2064
02:02:57,120 --> 02:03:08,000
Speaker 1: fair fair Yeah, yeah, mister Watson always thanks check. So

2065
02:03:08,040 --> 02:03:10,280
Speaker 1: there you go. I thought, coming up for the first

2066
02:03:10,280 --> 02:03:14,080
Speaker 1: one hundred days, why not have a super sized episode.

2067
02:03:14,120 --> 02:03:17,120
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed it, especially you house race and

2068
02:03:17,200 --> 02:03:21,480
Speaker 1: campaign junkies. You know, a little Dave Wasserman. It is

2069
02:03:21,520 --> 02:03:24,560
Speaker 1: always a lot of fun, even this early in the process.

2070
02:03:24,600 --> 02:03:26,640
Speaker 1: And guess what, you know, he'll come back. We'll have

2071
02:03:26,760 --> 02:03:28,640
Speaker 1: more of this. I have a great week of shows

2072
02:03:28,680 --> 02:03:32,400
Speaker 1: coming up, so don't miss it. Catch up on those

2073
02:03:32,480 --> 02:03:34,640
Speaker 1: that you haven't caught up on, especially if you didn't

2074
02:03:35,200 --> 02:03:38,960
Speaker 1: hear the episode over the weekend with Alex Gibney and

2075
02:03:39,440 --> 02:03:43,760
Speaker 1: how essentially we now have legalized political bribery, whether it's

2076
02:03:43,760 --> 02:03:46,640
Speaker 1: on the state level, city level, or the national level,

2077
02:03:46,720 --> 02:03:49,440
Speaker 1: it is something we've got to be dealing with. And again,

2078
02:03:49,600 --> 02:03:52,360
Speaker 1: our democracy is pretty broken in a lot of places.

2079
02:03:52,560 --> 02:03:55,480
Speaker 1: There are a lot of fixes that need to be done.

2080
02:03:56,320 --> 02:03:58,320
Speaker 1: I gave you one idea in the middle of this

2081
02:03:58,400 --> 02:04:01,640
Speaker 1: thing with the Ted talk. Gibney's got some ideas as well.

2082
02:04:01,680 --> 02:04:03,800
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is one of the things you

2083
02:04:03,800 --> 02:04:07,120
Speaker 1: can expect from this show is focus not just on

2084
02:04:07,400 --> 02:04:10,640
Speaker 1: politics in the moment, but actually what can we do

2085
02:04:10,880 --> 02:04:15,840
Speaker 1: to rebuild and remodel the American democracy for the twenty

2086
02:04:15,880 --> 02:04:18,320
Speaker 1: first century. So anytime I can spend some time on that,

2087
02:04:18,720 --> 02:04:21,000
Speaker 1: I am going to spend some time on that. So

2088
02:04:21,080 --> 02:04:24,440
Speaker 1: with that, I appreciate you, uh, the fact that you

2089
02:04:24,480 --> 02:04:27,600
Speaker 1: got to the end of this episode. Thank you. Be

2090
02:04:27,680 --> 02:04:30,200
Speaker 1: sure to like and subscribe, and I look forward to

2091
02:04:30,200 --> 02:04:32,600
Speaker 1: talking with you on the next episode until we upload them.