WEBVTT - Ron Brownstein, Anne Applebaum & Nikki Fried 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:04.200 Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.160 where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:11.880 today's best minds. And Greg Abbott says he's not responsible 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:14.360 for public education budget shortfalls. 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:17.400 Why would he be? We have such an interesting show 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:18.120 for you today. 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:21.440 And Applebaum stops by to talk to us abutter new 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:25.200 book Autocracy, Inc. The Dictators who want to run the world. 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.800 Then we'll talk to Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki fried 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:32.320 about how Democrats can win in Florida again. 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:34.120 But first we have. 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:37.199 Senior editor at The Atlantic and author of Rock Me 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:39.720 on the Water, Ron Brownstein. 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:42.240 Welcome back to Fast. 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:45.280 Politics, my friend and really one of the smartest people 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:45.599 I know. 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:46.640 Ron Brownstein. 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.519 Hey, MOLLI thanks you the nice intro. It's true we 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.160 had had been gotta being true as think shak exactly. 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:57.360 I mean, you're smart, but you also have been doing 0:00:57.400 --> 0:00:58.520 this for a long time. 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:01.840 Well, month is my fortieth anniversary of covering national politics 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:03.960 again this month in nineteen eighty four. 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:06.839 You started covering national politics when you were nine. 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.800 Yeah, you really do have the benefit of hindsight, and 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:14.440 I always think that one of the things that we 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:18.640 really struggle with in pundit land is that we don't 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:23.160 love to draw from recent history for whatever reason, and 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:27.600 so we often deal with things as aberrations and not 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:32.440 as you know, part of a larger pattern or tapestry, 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:34.560 which I think is useful absolutely. 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:36.920 I mean, you know, almost everything that happens in politics 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:40.880 is an extension of something that has already happened. Now 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:44.160 you do get swerves, and we are getting a few 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:48.560 swerves in this election that are kind of creating. You know, 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:50.440 it's a funny thing. You know, this may have been 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.120 a matchup that very few people wanted, but it is 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:55.760 certainly a matchup that a lot of people anticipated and 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.240 kind of even if they felt resigned to it, thought 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.760 we were going to get. And yet in how it 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:05.400 is dividing the electorate, it is not unfolding exactly the 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:10.280 way that you would have predicted their signs. But you know, 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:16.919 a lot of the dynamics are somewhat surprising and counterintuitive 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.160 and really kind of added to the uncertainty about where 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:19.600 we're going. 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:24.280 Yes, we are going to be cross tabs truthers right now. 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.680 So cross tabs are the parts where they break down 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:30.639 the poles and they look at who pulled what there 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:36.079 were some very dicey polls released on Monday, and they 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.080 said a lot of different things, and when you looked 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.320 at the cross tabs, they didn't entirely track with each other. 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:46.200 I at least think that if you look at the 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:49.480 bulk of polls, both nationally and in the Swing States, 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:54.920 there are a few things that are consistently appearing, some 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:57.360 dynamics and as I say, dynamics that you would not 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.800 necessarily expect. And just I think the two two biggest 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:04.440 ones the two actually three, there are three kind of 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:09.240 big inversions that are underway, and they are and when 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:12.800 you add them all up together, they're these demographic inversions 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:17.760 are kind of producing an unexpected geographic dynamic or map, 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:22.040 you know. I think you can say in polling pretty consistently, 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.840 I think, almost universally in fact, that Biden is holding 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.680 a higher share of his twenty twenty support among whites 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:30.920 than non whites. 0:03:30.760 --> 0:03:34.800 And older whites too, which is a strange. 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.080 That's the second one, right, So the first one is 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:39.560 that if you look at the change from twenty twenty 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.960 to now, Biden has lost more ground with non whites 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:45.960 than with whites. I think that is a pretty consistent pattern, 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.280 whether we're talking about black voters or Hispanic voters. And 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:51.880 I'm not surprised that Biden is often running a little 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:54.360 better with college whites than he did last time, because 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:57.640 people forget, it's easy to forget the dobbs only happened 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:01.240 after the twenty twenty election, and very sixth only happened 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:03.960 after the twenty twenty election. But what's surprising to me 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.640 is that Biden really, in most polls, I mean, there 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.440 are some, there are outlaws, he's not really losing that 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:13.840 much ground with non college whites. So point one, Biden 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:16.240 holding his twenty twenty support better among whites than nonm walites. 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:18.760 You got to point two, which is that Biden is 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:22.720 holding his twenty twenty support better among older voters than 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.840 younger voters or even middle aged seniors have been a 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:30.680 Republican leaning constituency, you know roughly. Yeah, well, I mean, 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:33.240 at least the last twenty five years, pretty consistently, you 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:35.680 got from the New Deal seniors to like, you know, 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:39.800 different cohorts of seniors, and eating twenty twenty, Biden and 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:44.280 Trump roughly split seniors, with most of the big data 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.200 sources giving Trump a slide advantage. Biden usually has its 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.480 slight advantage now among seniors. 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:53.039 Which is, by the way, completely crazy if you think 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:57.160 about it, that elderly people now like the Democrat. 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:00.640 I mean, that is wild stuff about that. 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.880 But let's just close the circle by singing by comparison. 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:07.400 You know, Biden's vote among young people eighteen to twenty 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:09.520 nine or eighteen to thirty four, depending on the ball 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:12.880 is down significantly. 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:14.960 And that is why he's losing in these polls. 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:18.400 And that plus I think black and Hispanic men up 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.360 into their forties, not only young people will come back 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.600 to like why why he's holding a better receives. As 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:26.800 an outgrowth of these first two inversions, there's a third 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:30.119 in version, which is that Trump is running best among 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:32.279 the people who are least likely to vote. I mean, 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:36.120 what we're Democrats thinking they have to expand the electorate 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:38.920 in order to win. That may not be the case 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.479 this year. I mean, Biden is running well with college 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:44.200 whites and seniors, who are two of the most reliable 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:49.239 voting groups in the country, and he's struggling with non 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:53.320 college non men, who are not one of the most 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.799 reliable voting groups in the country. And if you look 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.440 at for example, the New York Times, you know, Santopolis 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.240 can like yesterday, not the individual states, their accumulation of 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:04.359 the whole thing. Trump was leading by twenty points among 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:06.400 people who said they didn't vote in twenty twenty, which 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:09.960 is not unusual. Definitely the polling like that. But those 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.360 people who didn't vote in twenty twenty said they were 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.320 less likely to vote, far less motivate than people who 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:18.479 did so. In the end, I think it's going to 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:22.000 be really I think there are a lot of younger, 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.719 non white men who are going to be really hard 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:27.760 for Biden to win back, and the kind of the 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.400 hard triage question in the fall, maybe can you at 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:34.360 least get them off voting for Trump, either by voting 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:38.160 for Kennedy or Cornell West or by not voting, kind 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.000 of alienating them from Trump so much and they kind 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.120 of say, well, both of these guys stink. I'm staying home. 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.760 That is not something the Democrats have had to think 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.800 about much in my lifetime, but that may case. So 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.279 if you add all of this up, it gives you, 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:52.960 again what is a pretty clear pattern, which is that 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:56.640 Biden is much more competitive in the three rust Belt 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.840 swing states, which are older and whiter than he is 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:02.760 in the four sun Belt swing states, which are younger. 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:04.320 Which you're younger, and more Hispanic. 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:07.200 Ben Eltin said to me it was Bernie's Polster like, 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:09.400 you know, I can't even wrap my head around. We're 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:14.160 doing better in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania relative to Arizona, Nevada, 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.760 and North Carolina and Georgia because they're less diverse, you know, 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.840 and thus less change from last time. If you look 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:25.800 at these demographic forces that were describing, these demographic trends 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:30.120 that were describing, it creates clear tiering in the geography. 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:35.040 It may change, but right now Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:39.840 plus Omaha the one CD in Nebraska would get Biden 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:43.360 to two seventy And as Carville said to me, if 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:46.600 you win all three of them, you win. If you'll 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:50.600 lose any one of the three, you are scrambling because 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:54.880 Arizona and Nevada look much harder than those three, though 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.280 I think still doable, and the other two, the southeastern ones, 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:01.160 Georgia and North Carolina, looking and harder than them. So 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:04.520 that's kind of where we are. Can Trump hold that 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.280 level of non white support all the way to the 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.680 finish line. No, I doubt it. Yeah, I doubt it, 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:13.200 but it doesn't necessarily mean it goes back to Biden. 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.800 No, exactly two things I want to bring up here. 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.840 I also wonder how much of this is polling error. Right, 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:22.680 there are two things I think going on. Younger voters 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.800 are mad at Biden for any number of reasons, and 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:31.160 he's definitely Hispanic voters also. But I just wonder if 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:34.400 there's also some polling inaccuracies here, because. 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:35.760 These are harder groups to poll. 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:40.280 True, the polls are internally consistent in the sense that, 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:44.880 like with Hispanic voters, they are expressing overwhelming discontent with 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:48.680 Biden's economy and the belief that the economy was better 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:52.520 under Trump. And people who do focus groups with Hispanic 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:55.040 and for that matter, Black voters. I cannot tell you 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:57.400 how many Democratic bolsters I have talked to who have 0:08:57.440 --> 0:08:59.720 said variations on the same phrase. They sit in the 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:04.080 folk group and somebody says Trump's a racist, He's crude, 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:07.320 you know, he's disrespectful of women. I wouldn't want him 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:09.160 around my kids. But I'm being honest. I had more 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:10.920 money in my pocket when he was president, and things 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.800 are more alaudable. So there's that internal consistency. And then 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:16.680 with young people, like the fall of twenty twenty is 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.120 like the one time they've ever been excited about Biden. 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.080 I mean, you know, they didn't rally to him in 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.360 the primary, and they certainly have not given him highpproval 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:30.280 ratings really throughout his presidency. I personally am dubious that 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:32.800 there is a complete polling fail here because we are 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:35.240 getting the same message from so many places. But as 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.040 you note, when there are large sample surveys aim just 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:42.240 at this group, these groups like the young people surveys 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:45.439 of these pseudo politics at JFK School of Kennedy, or 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:50.000 large sample Hispanic polls from Univision, generally it is not 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:53.400 as dire as it is for in the in the 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:57.240 media polls which have smaller samples of these groups. But 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:00.240 I think it is real. I mean it's like the 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.240 question is kind of where does he land? I do 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.520 not think Biden will match his twenty twenty number among 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:10.320 black voters, Hispanic voters, or young voters. That doesn't mean 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.720 he will do as badly as he is doing today. 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:16.360 And so you know, the question may be where in 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.560 that spectrum from where he was to where he is now, 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:23.079 does he finish? And by the way, if we're talking 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:28.000 about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin versus as Arizona and Nevada, 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:30.200 I think you also have to kind of have in 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:33.319 your mind, is it possible to win back black voters 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.720 more easily than it will be to win back Hispanic voters? 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:39.440 Right though, we know that Hispanic voters are not a 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:42.920 monolith because there are different kinds of Hispanic voters. 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:46.480 The share of Hispanic voters who have expressed conservative views 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:49.560 on all sorts of things was always higher than the 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:51.800 share who voted for Republicans because there was kind of 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.920 a barrier and a sense that Republicans are anti Hispanic. Obviously, 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.640 Trump has given plenty of ammunition to that argument. But 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:00.880 what you're seeing, what you so on twenty twenty, and 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:04.640 what we're seeing twenty twenty four, is that more Hispanics 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:08.599 who express conservative views are willing to also vote Republican. 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:10.400 But that doesn't mean, like you know, like the New 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:13.920 York Times stuff had Trump winning Hispanics I think. 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:15.600 Right, which is completely crazy. 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:17.280 I don't think Biden can match what he's got in 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:20.680 twenty twenty, but I do not think it is guaranteed 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.560 that Trump will hold everything he is poland in fact, 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:27.200 you know, the one thing Trump has to be nervous 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.439 about is that, given how little movement there has been 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:34.240 amoung wide voters, is lead largely dependent on doing something 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:36.200 that no Republican has ever run. 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:38.120 And has ever done historically ever. 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:42.120 So that's not necessarily solid ground on which to stand, right. 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.960 And this is a guy who's largely run on anti black, 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:48.119 anti Hispanic racism. 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:51.680 He's getting the better worlds, right, He's azing his base 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.839 with these very polarizing messages about race, calling all of 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:57.840 these black prosecutors rasists. 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:01.000 And so how do you rely on those voters when 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:04.160 you're when half of your campaign is maligning. 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.920 Them, well, because you're counting on them to vote for 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.880 you on other issues. Right, the share of Hispanic and 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:14.000 Black voters who will say the economy was better under Trump, 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.000 or will say I trust Trump more than Biden on 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:20.520 the economy is too big for Biden to be comfortable with. 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.440 Like if everybody who says that, if every black and 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:25.960 Hispanic voter who says that votes for Trump, he's in 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.000 a lot of Trump saying's true, and whites by the 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.920 way Biden right now is trailing by what fifteen points 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:34.400 on who can better handle the economy. I don't know 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:36.839 if it will be that bad on election day, but 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.200 it's probably not going to be even on election day, 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.120 which means that Biden is going to have to convince 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.319 a significant number of voter which. 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:45.800 Is insane by the way. 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:48.199 I mean, just to pull back for a second, like 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:53.440 Trump to completely disorganized lunatic who you know, basically believes 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.760 in a form of crony capitalism, which is at best 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.800 Russia and it works North Korea. 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.760 So if Trump believes on the economy, that means Biden 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.480 is going to have to convince some people who think 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:07.679 Trump is better for their bottom line to vote against 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.840 him anyway, because he's in a front to their rights 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:13.640 and their values and democracy and that is available to him. 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:15.840 I mean, there are people who will make that calculation. 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:17.800 In fact, there are millions of them. We saw it 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.000 in twenty twenty two. But the question is are there 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.800 There's not an infinite pool of people who will make 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.960 that calculation, and Biden just has to improve his own 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.240 his own standing. People ask all the time, like why 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.559 isn't this hurting, Why isn't that hurting Trump? The answer 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.880 is it is hurting Trump. I mean, look at yesterday's 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:39.480 The New York Times Sianna Polos. In the head to 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.599 head against Trump, Biden is seven points better than his 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:46.440 approval rating in Arizona, six better in Michigan, six points 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:50.480 better in Pennsylvania, six points better in Wisconsin, five points 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.679 better in trigger. That is very unusual. That is the 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.760 measure of how many people are resistant, who are saying, 0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:00.199 I don't think Biden's doing any a good job, but 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.680 I am not going to vote for Trump anyway because 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.520 he is so unacceptable to me. The problem is, you know, 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.000 as I said, there's not an infinite number of people 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:12.520 who will make that calculation. And the way I phrase 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.240 it is that all of Trump's problems are like throwing 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.560 this seventeen foot ladder to Biden. The problem is is 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:21.560 that right now Biden is standing in a twenty foot hole, 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:23.960 and he doesn't have to get back to ground level 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:26.600 to win this election, but he does have to get 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:28.680 somewhat closer to it than he is today. 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.040 That makes sense, yes, But talk about the genericity because 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:35.000 that is really interesting. And the other thing I want 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.720 you to talk about is in this poll in Nevada, 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:44.880 it has this Senate candidate writing about fifteen points ahead 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.440 of Biden, Jackie Rosen. 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.600 I'm sorry, but what there's no okay, yeah, right. So 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.320 the history so here is I mean, the history is 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:59.440 that it is becoming almost impossible for Senate candidates to 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:01.800 win in states that vote the other way for president. 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.040 In the last in twenty sixteen, it was the first 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:07.200 election in American history where every Senate race went the 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.320 same way as the presidential race in that state. And 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:13.120 in twenty twenty, it happened again in every race except 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:16.520 meaning where Susan Collins won while Biden on the state. 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:18.960 As you saw on that New York Times poll, there 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:22.600 are Democratic Senate candidates who are winning in states where 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.240 Biden is even or losing, but most of them are 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:30.080 under fifty. And in that you know, except for Tammy Baldwin, 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:31.640 who was close to fifty, I think she was a 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.880 forty nine. I cannot imagine Joe Biden losing Nevada by 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:36.600 ten points in Jackie Rosen winning. 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:40.240 By seventeen points. I mean, well, she was up by two, 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.360 I think, right, But I mean it just seemed like 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:42.880 a lot. 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:48.680 Well, I remember states like Kentucky and South Carolina and Kansas, Montana. 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:53.000 Democrats spent a fortune in the Senate races in those states, 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.480 and I don't believe any of those candidates ran any 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:58.520 more than two points better than Biden. That was the 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.920 most and that was just and no one really ran 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.040 better than Trump. On the Republican side, I mean, they 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.440 ran slightly better than Trump, but it's really hard there 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:09.760 are you know, in the twenty five states that Biden 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.160 won last time, Republicans are down to two of the 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.320 fifty Senate seats, and in the twenty five states the 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.080 Trump won, Democrats are down at three of the fifty 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:19.720 Senate seats. So I do think it is possible that 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.200 someone like Tammy Baldwin or Bob Casey or even Ruben 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:27.080 Diego could win if Biden loses their state narrowly, and 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:31.040 maybe even Alyssa Slotkin. That could be harder though against 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.200 a solid opponent in Mike Rogers. But by and large 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:37.680 Democrats need Biden to recover or else the Senate I 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:40.360 think could get bad. Now, what you're referring to is 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:44.280 the opposite, right, which is, you know that Democrats in 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:47.720 the Senate races and in the generic House ballot are 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:51.840 doing better than Biden is doing and that is kind 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.400 of interesting. I mean, you know, you could you can 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:56.960 look at that a number of ways. Some people have said, well, 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.320 you know, it's just a Biden problem. It's it's not 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.960 a democratic problem. I think the history is more that 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.200 you can't separate the two, and that if there is 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.200 a Biden problem, it will become a democratic problem by 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:11.439 the end that you know that ultimately it's a verdict 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:16.560 on his governance and democratic governance, and everyone in the 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.960 party is going to face a big undertow if in 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:22.399 fact he can't win some of these states. Now you 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.520 know again Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He you know, those 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.760 are really tight again, as they have been in each 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:34.040 of the last two elections, Arizona and Nevada. Most polling 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:36.960 it shows Trump with a lead, a significant lead, but 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:39.960 I don't view those as gone for Democrats. Georgia in 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:42.560 North Carolina could be very art although North Carolina is 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:45.840 kind of an intriguing wildcard with abortion, but really after 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:48.320 the Big three, it's kind of a fall off. 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:51.200 But I want to just pause for a minute and 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:57.879 remind you how much Republicans flood the zone with junkie polls, 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:02.360 and how much polling is really no longer a science. 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.760 And also more importantly, I want to just look back 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:10.400 at Wisconsin for a minute, where Ron Johnson basically won 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:15.360 on polls right. Every poll showed Mandela Barnes seven eight 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:20.040 points behind Mandela Barns abandoned by the Democrats lost by 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:22.840 half a percent. So I do think there is an 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:27.359 X factor here, and Republicans have used polls really successfully 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:28.520 to suppress the vote. 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.760 It's something like real good politics really is just as 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.080 I said, just an arm of the Republican master's machine. 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.400 You're right, and they do include a lot of junk piles. 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:40.080 My focus is less on the absolutes of the ors 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:42.960 race than on the patterns that we were talking about earlier. 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.600 We know I think I do think we know from 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:49.320 public and private polling that Biden use holding ist is 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.320 vote better older and wider than younger and more diverse, 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.280 and he is running better among the most likely voters 0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:58.159 than the least likely voters, two. 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:02.000 Which are both two very good you want those voters. 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:06.200 All of that has clear geographic implications, and they leave 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:10.119 him with a path to winning. But what could be 0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:13.200 a narrow path, and that's kind of where he is. 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.359 I mean, I could see a world where Biden can 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.800 survive losing Wisconsin and replacing it with that. No, I 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:20.639 could see a world where he can buy losing Michigan 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:23.640 and replacing it with Arizona, Nevada. There's no I think 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:27.080 plausible replacement for Pennsylvania, And in all likelihood, it seems 0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:29.639 unlikely to me that he would win Arizona and Nevada 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.879 unless he's also winning all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:36.320 Given what we are seeing with you know, younger Hispanic voters, 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:39.720 like I said, Dobbs happened after twenty twenty. January sixth 0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.680 happened after twenty twenty. Biden's vote on boncollege educated white 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.639 voters is likely to be higher, I think, in twenty 0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:49.520 four than it was in twenty despite concerns about things 0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:54.639 like inflation, and if he doesn't decline much among the 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:59.359 blue collar whites that added little boost in the Madison 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:03.080 you know suburbs, and the Detroit suburbs and the Philadelphia 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:07.359 suburbs could allow him to squeeze out all three of 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:11.040 those states, even if turnout and or margins are down 0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:14.720 for him in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia. The math works 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:17.560 there there are enough of those college whites that you 0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:21.840 can offset even if you underperform a little bit among 0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:24.600 black voters, whereas it in the Southwest, I think the 0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:26.840 Hispanic vote is just too big a piece of the 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:31.000 Democratic coalition. If in fact, he does lose anywhere near 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.760 as much ground as now seems possible, it's going to 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:35.280 be hard to make it up. So what's the answer 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:37.560 for him? I mean, you know, in Arizona, Nevada, it's 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:40.320 recover as much out of that ground on Hispanic voters 0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.320 as you can get it as close to that roughly 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:45.280 sixty percent that they got in twenty twenty. And then 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:49.000 when that shortfall is down a manageable number, you could 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:51.800 make it up with college white women who are pissed 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:55.159 off about Dobbs and particularly with abortion, you know, referenda 0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:57.960 on the ballot in both of those states. But he's 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:01.520 got to I think he's got to improve his own 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.800 circumstance with some of these voters. That is more the 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:09.280 key than you know, seeding more doubts about Trump, because, 0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:11.840 like I said, Biden is already the doubts about Trump 0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:14.399 are evident in the results that Biden is running so 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:17.600