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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Greg Abbott says he's not responsible

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Speaker 1: for public education budget shortfalls.

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Speaker 2: Why would he be? We have such an interesting show

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Speaker 2: for you today.

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Speaker 1: And Applebaum stops by to talk to us abutter new

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Speaker 1: book Autocracy, Inc. The Dictators who want to run the world.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki fried

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Speaker 1: about how Democrats can win in Florida again.

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Speaker 2: But first we have.

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Speaker 1: Senior editor at The Atlantic and author of Rock Me

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Speaker 1: on the Water, Ron Brownstein.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to Fast.

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Speaker 1: Politics, my friend and really one of the smartest people

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Speaker 1: I know.

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Speaker 2: Ron Brownstein.

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Speaker 3: Hey, MOLLI thanks you the nice intro. It's true we

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Speaker 3: had had been gotta being true as think shak exactly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you're smart, but you also have been doing

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Speaker 1: this for a long time.

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Speaker 3: Well, month is my fortieth anniversary of covering national politics

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Speaker 3: again this month in nineteen eighty four.

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Speaker 2: You started covering national politics when you were nine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you really do have the benefit of hindsight, and

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Speaker 1: I always think that one of the things that we

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Speaker 1: really struggle with in pundit land is that we don't

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Speaker 1: love to draw from recent history for whatever reason, and

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Speaker 1: so we often deal with things as aberrations and not

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Speaker 1: as you know, part of a larger pattern or tapestry,

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Speaker 1: which I think is useful absolutely.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, almost everything that happens in politics

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Speaker 3: is an extension of something that has already happened. Now

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Speaker 3: you do get swerves, and we are getting a few

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Speaker 3: swerves in this election that are kind of creating. You know,

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Speaker 3: it's a funny thing. You know, this may have been

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Speaker 3: a matchup that very few people wanted, but it is

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Speaker 3: certainly a matchup that a lot of people anticipated and

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Speaker 3: kind of even if they felt resigned to it, thought

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Speaker 3: we were going to get. And yet in how it

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Speaker 3: is dividing the electorate, it is not unfolding exactly the

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Speaker 3: way that you would have predicted their signs. But you know,

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Speaker 3: a lot of the dynamics are somewhat surprising and counterintuitive

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Speaker 3: and really kind of added to the uncertainty about where

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Speaker 3: we're going.

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Speaker 1: Yes, we are going to be cross tabs truthers right now.

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Speaker 1: So cross tabs are the parts where they break down

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Speaker 1: the poles and they look at who pulled what there

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Speaker 1: were some very dicey polls released on Monday, and they

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Speaker 1: said a lot of different things, and when you looked

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Speaker 1: at the cross tabs, they didn't entirely track with each other.

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Speaker 3: I at least think that if you look at the

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Speaker 3: bulk of polls, both nationally and in the Swing States,

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Speaker 3: there are a few things that are consistently appearing, some

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Speaker 3: dynamics and as I say, dynamics that you would not

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Speaker 3: necessarily expect. And just I think the two two biggest

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Speaker 3: ones the two actually three, there are three kind of

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Speaker 3: big inversions that are underway, and they are and when

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Speaker 3: you add them all up together, they're these demographic inversions

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Speaker 3: are kind of producing an unexpected geographic dynamic or map,

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Speaker 3: you know. I think you can say in polling pretty consistently,

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Speaker 3: I think, almost universally in fact, that Biden is holding

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Speaker 3: a higher share of his twenty twenty support among whites

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Speaker 3: than non whites.

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Speaker 2: And older whites too, which is a strange.

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Speaker 3: That's the second one, right, So the first one is

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Speaker 3: that if you look at the change from twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: to now, Biden has lost more ground with non whites

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Speaker 3: than with whites. I think that is a pretty consistent pattern,

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Speaker 3: whether we're talking about black voters or Hispanic voters. And

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Speaker 3: I'm not surprised that Biden is often running a little

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Speaker 3: better with college whites than he did last time, because

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Speaker 3: people forget, it's easy to forget the dobbs only happened

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Speaker 3: after the twenty twenty election, and very sixth only happened

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Speaker 3: after the twenty twenty election. But what's surprising to me

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Speaker 3: is that Biden really, in most polls, I mean, there

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Speaker 3: are some, there are outlaws, he's not really losing that

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Speaker 3: much ground with non college whites. So point one, Biden

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Speaker 3: holding his twenty twenty support better among whites than nonm walites.

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Speaker 3: You got to point two, which is that Biden is

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Speaker 3: holding his twenty twenty support better among older voters than

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Speaker 3: younger voters or even middle aged seniors have been a

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Speaker 3: Republican leaning constituency, you know roughly. Yeah, well, I mean,

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Speaker 3: at least the last twenty five years, pretty consistently, you

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Speaker 3: got from the New Deal seniors to like, you know,

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Speaker 3: different cohorts of seniors, and eating twenty twenty, Biden and

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Speaker 3: Trump roughly split seniors, with most of the big data

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Speaker 3: sources giving Trump a slide advantage. Biden usually has its

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Speaker 3: slight advantage now among seniors.

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Speaker 1: Which is, by the way, completely crazy if you think

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Speaker 1: about it, that elderly people now like the Democrat.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that is wild stuff about that.

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Speaker 3: But let's just close the circle by singing by comparison.

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Speaker 3: You know, Biden's vote among young people eighteen to twenty

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Speaker 3: nine or eighteen to thirty four, depending on the ball

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Speaker 3: is down significantly.

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Speaker 2: And that is why he's losing in these polls.

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Speaker 3: And that plus I think black and Hispanic men up

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Speaker 3: into their forties, not only young people will come back

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Speaker 3: to like why why he's holding a better receives. As

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Speaker 3: an outgrowth of these first two inversions, there's a third

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Speaker 3: in version, which is that Trump is running best among

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Speaker 3: the people who are least likely to vote. I mean,

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Speaker 3: what we're Democrats thinking they have to expand the electorate

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Speaker 3: in order to win. That may not be the case

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Speaker 3: this year. I mean, Biden is running well with college

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Speaker 3: whites and seniors, who are two of the most reliable

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Speaker 3: voting groups in the country, and he's struggling with non

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Speaker 3: college non men, who are not one of the most

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Speaker 3: reliable voting groups in the country. And if you look

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Speaker 3: at for example, the New York Times, you know, Santopolis

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Speaker 3: can like yesterday, not the individual states, their accumulation of

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Speaker 3: the whole thing. Trump was leading by twenty points among

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Speaker 3: people who said they didn't vote in twenty twenty, which

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Speaker 3: is not unusual. Definitely the polling like that. But those

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Speaker 3: people who didn't vote in twenty twenty said they were

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Speaker 3: less likely to vote, far less motivate than people who

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Speaker 3: did so. In the end, I think it's going to

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Speaker 3: be really I think there are a lot of younger,

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Speaker 3: non white men who are going to be really hard

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Speaker 3: for Biden to win back, and the kind of the

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Speaker 3: hard triage question in the fall, maybe can you at

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Speaker 3: least get them off voting for Trump, either by voting

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Speaker 3: for Kennedy or Cornell West or by not voting, kind

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Speaker 3: of alienating them from Trump so much and they kind

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Speaker 3: of say, well, both of these guys stink. I'm staying home.

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Speaker 3: That is not something the Democrats have had to think

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Speaker 3: about much in my lifetime, but that may case. So

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Speaker 3: if you add all of this up, it gives you,

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Speaker 3: again what is a pretty clear pattern, which is that

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Speaker 3: Biden is much more competitive in the three rust Belt

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Speaker 3: swing states, which are older and whiter than he is

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Speaker 3: in the four sun Belt swing states, which are younger.

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Speaker 2: Which you're younger, and more Hispanic.

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Speaker 3: Ben Eltin said to me it was Bernie's Polster like,

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Speaker 3: you know, I can't even wrap my head around. We're

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Speaker 3: doing better in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania relative to Arizona, Nevada,

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Speaker 3: and North Carolina and Georgia because they're less diverse, you know,

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Speaker 3: and thus less change from last time. If you look

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Speaker 3: at these demographic forces that were describing, these demographic trends

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Speaker 3: that were describing, it creates clear tiering in the geography.

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Speaker 3: It may change, but right now Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

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Speaker 3: plus Omaha the one CD in Nebraska would get Biden

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Speaker 3: to two seventy And as Carville said to me, if

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Speaker 3: you win all three of them, you win. If you'll

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Speaker 3: lose any one of the three, you are scrambling because

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Speaker 3: Arizona and Nevada look much harder than those three, though

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Speaker 3: I think still doable, and the other two, the southeastern ones,

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Speaker 3: Georgia and North Carolina, looking and harder than them. So

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Speaker 3: that's kind of where we are. Can Trump hold that

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Speaker 3: level of non white support all the way to the

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Speaker 3: finish line. No, I doubt it. Yeah, I doubt it,

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Speaker 3: but it doesn't necessarily mean it goes back to Biden.

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Speaker 1: No, exactly two things I want to bring up here.

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Speaker 1: I also wonder how much of this is polling error. Right,

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Speaker 1: there are two things I think going on. Younger voters

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Speaker 1: are mad at Biden for any number of reasons, and

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Speaker 1: he's definitely Hispanic voters also. But I just wonder if

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Speaker 1: there's also some polling inaccuracies here, because.

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Speaker 2: These are harder groups to poll.

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Speaker 3: True, the polls are internally consistent in the sense that,

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Speaker 3: like with Hispanic voters, they are expressing overwhelming discontent with

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Speaker 3: Biden's economy and the belief that the economy was better

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Speaker 3: under Trump. And people who do focus groups with Hispanic

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Speaker 3: and for that matter, Black voters. I cannot tell you

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Speaker 3: how many Democratic bolsters I have talked to who have

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Speaker 3: said variations on the same phrase. They sit in the

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Speaker 3: folk group and somebody says Trump's a racist, He's crude,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's disrespectful of women. I wouldn't want him

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Speaker 3: around my kids. But I'm being honest. I had more

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Speaker 3: money in my pocket when he was president, and things

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Speaker 3: are more alaudable. So there's that internal consistency. And then

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Speaker 3: with young people, like the fall of twenty twenty is

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Speaker 3: like the one time they've ever been excited about Biden.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, they didn't rally to him in

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Speaker 3: the primary, and they certainly have not given him highpproval

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Speaker 3: ratings really throughout his presidency. I personally am dubious that

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Speaker 3: there is a complete polling fail here because we are

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Speaker 3: getting the same message from so many places. But as

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Speaker 3: you note, when there are large sample surveys aim just

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Speaker 3: at this group, these groups like the young people surveys

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Speaker 3: of these pseudo politics at JFK School of Kennedy, or

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Speaker 3: large sample Hispanic polls from Univision, generally it is not

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Speaker 3: as dire as it is for in the in the

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Speaker 3: media polls which have smaller samples of these groups. But

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Speaker 3: I think it is real. I mean it's like the

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Speaker 3: question is kind of where does he land? I do

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Speaker 3: not think Biden will match his twenty twenty number among

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Speaker 3: black voters, Hispanic voters, or young voters. That doesn't mean

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Speaker 3: he will do as badly as he is doing today.

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Speaker 3: And so you know, the question may be where in

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Speaker 3: that spectrum from where he was to where he is now,

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Speaker 3: does he finish? And by the way, if we're talking

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Speaker 3: about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin versus as Arizona and Nevada,

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Speaker 3: I think you also have to kind of have in

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Speaker 3: your mind, is it possible to win back black voters

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Speaker 3: more easily than it will be to win back Hispanic voters?

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Speaker 1: Right though, we know that Hispanic voters are not a

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Speaker 1: monolith because there are different kinds of Hispanic voters.

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Speaker 3: The share of Hispanic voters who have expressed conservative views

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Speaker 3: on all sorts of things was always higher than the

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Speaker 3: share who voted for Republicans because there was kind of

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Speaker 3: a barrier and a sense that Republicans are anti Hispanic. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: Trump has given plenty of ammunition to that argument. But

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Speaker 3: what you're seeing, what you so on twenty twenty, and

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Speaker 3: what we're seeing twenty twenty four, is that more Hispanics

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Speaker 3: who express conservative views are willing to also vote Republican.

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Speaker 3: But that doesn't mean, like you know, like the New

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Speaker 3: York Times stuff had Trump winning Hispanics I think.

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Speaker 2: Right, which is completely crazy.

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Speaker 3: I don't think Biden can match what he's got in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty, but I do not think it is guaranteed

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Speaker 3: that Trump will hold everything he is poland in fact,

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Speaker 3: you know, the one thing Trump has to be nervous

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Speaker 3: about is that, given how little movement there has been

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Speaker 3: amoung wide voters, is lead largely dependent on doing something

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Speaker 3: that no Republican has ever run.

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Speaker 2: And has ever done historically ever.

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Speaker 3: So that's not necessarily solid ground on which to stand, right.

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Speaker 1: And this is a guy who's largely run on anti black,

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Speaker 1: anti Hispanic racism.

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Speaker 3: He's getting the better worlds, right, He's azing his base

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Speaker 3: with these very polarizing messages about race, calling all of

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Speaker 3: these black prosecutors rasists.

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Speaker 1: And so how do you rely on those voters when

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Speaker 1: you're when half of your campaign is maligning.

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Speaker 3: Them, well, because you're counting on them to vote for

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Speaker 3: you on other issues. Right, the share of Hispanic and

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Speaker 3: Black voters who will say the economy was better under Trump,

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Speaker 3: or will say I trust Trump more than Biden on

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Speaker 3: the economy is too big for Biden to be comfortable with.

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Speaker 3: Like if everybody who says that, if every black and

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Speaker 3: Hispanic voter who says that votes for Trump, he's in

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Speaker 3: a lot of Trump saying's true, and whites by the

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Speaker 3: way Biden right now is trailing by what fifteen points

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Speaker 3: on who can better handle the economy. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if it will be that bad on election day, but

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Speaker 3: it's probably not going to be even on election day,

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Speaker 3: which means that Biden is going to have to convince

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Speaker 3: a significant number of voter which.

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Speaker 2: Is insane by the way.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just to pull back for a second, like

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Speaker 1: Trump to completely disorganized lunatic who you know, basically believes

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Speaker 1: in a form of crony capitalism, which is at best

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Speaker 1: Russia and it works North Korea.

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Speaker 3: So if Trump believes on the economy, that means Biden

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Speaker 3: is going to have to convince some people who think

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Speaker 3: Trump is better for their bottom line to vote against

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Speaker 3: him anyway, because he's in a front to their rights

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Speaker 3: and their values and democracy and that is available to him.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there are people who will make that calculation.

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Speaker 3: In fact, there are millions of them. We saw it

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two. But the question is are there

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Speaker 3: There's not an infinite pool of people who will make

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Speaker 3: that calculation, and Biden just has to improve his own

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Speaker 3: his own standing. People ask all the time, like why

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Speaker 3: isn't this hurting, Why isn't that hurting Trump? The answer

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Speaker 3: is it is hurting Trump. I mean, look at yesterday's

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Speaker 3: The New York Times Sianna Polos. In the head to

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Speaker 3: head against Trump, Biden is seven points better than his

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Speaker 3: approval rating in Arizona, six better in Michigan, six points

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Speaker 3: better in Pennsylvania, six points better in Wisconsin, five points

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Speaker 3: better in trigger. That is very unusual. That is the

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Speaker 3: measure of how many people are resistant, who are saying,

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Speaker 3: I don't think Biden's doing any a good job, but

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Speaker 3: I am not going to vote for Trump anyway because

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Speaker 3: he is so unacceptable to me. The problem is, you know,

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Speaker 3: as I said, there's not an infinite number of people

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Speaker 3: who will make that calculation. And the way I phrase

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Speaker 3: it is that all of Trump's problems are like throwing

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Speaker 3: this seventeen foot ladder to Biden. The problem is is

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Speaker 3: that right now Biden is standing in a twenty foot hole,

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Speaker 3: and he doesn't have to get back to ground level

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Speaker 3: to win this election, but he does have to get

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Speaker 3: somewhat closer to it than he is today.

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Speaker 1: That makes sense, yes, But talk about the genericity because

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Speaker 1: that is really interesting. And the other thing I want

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Speaker 1: you to talk about is in this poll in Nevada,

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Speaker 1: it has this Senate candidate writing about fifteen points ahead

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Speaker 1: of Biden, Jackie Rosen.

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry, but what there's no okay, yeah, right. So

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Speaker 3: the history so here is I mean, the history is

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Speaker 3: that it is becoming almost impossible for Senate candidates to

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Speaker 3: win in states that vote the other way for president.

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Speaker 3: In the last in twenty sixteen, it was the first

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Speaker 3: election in American history where every Senate race went the

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Speaker 3: same way as the presidential race in that state. And

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty, it happened again in every race except

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Speaker 3: meaning where Susan Collins won while Biden on the state.

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Speaker 3: As you saw on that New York Times poll, there

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Speaker 3: are Democratic Senate candidates who are winning in states where

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Speaker 3: Biden is even or losing, but most of them are

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Speaker 3: under fifty. And in that you know, except for Tammy Baldwin,

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Speaker 3: who was close to fifty, I think she was a

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Speaker 3: forty nine. I cannot imagine Joe Biden losing Nevada by

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Speaker 3: ten points in Jackie Rosen winning.

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Speaker 2: By seventeen points. I mean, well, she was up by two,

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Speaker 2: I think, right, But I mean it just seemed like

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Speaker 2: a lot.

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Speaker 3: Well, I remember states like Kentucky and South Carolina and Kansas, Montana.

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Speaker 3: Democrats spent a fortune in the Senate races in those states,

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Speaker 3: and I don't believe any of those candidates ran any

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Speaker 3: more than two points better than Biden. That was the

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Speaker 3: most and that was just and no one really ran

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Speaker 3: better than Trump. On the Republican side, I mean, they

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Speaker 3: ran slightly better than Trump, but it's really hard there

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Speaker 3: are you know, in the twenty five states that Biden

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Speaker 3: won last time, Republicans are down to two of the

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Speaker 3: fifty Senate seats, and in the twenty five states the

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Speaker 3: Trump won, Democrats are down at three of the fifty

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Speaker 3: Senate seats. So I do think it is possible that

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Speaker 3: someone like Tammy Baldwin or Bob Casey or even Ruben

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Speaker 3: Diego could win if Biden loses their state narrowly, and

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Speaker 3: maybe even Alyssa Slotkin. That could be harder though against

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Speaker 3: a solid opponent in Mike Rogers. But by and large

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Speaker 3: Democrats need Biden to recover or else the Senate I

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Speaker 3: think could get bad. Now, what you're referring to is

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Speaker 3: the opposite, right, which is, you know that Democrats in

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Speaker 3: the Senate races and in the generic House ballot are

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Speaker 3: doing better than Biden is doing and that is kind

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Speaker 3: of interesting. I mean, you know, you could you can

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Speaker 3: look at that a number of ways. Some people have said, well,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's just a Biden problem. It's it's not

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Speaker 3: a democratic problem. I think the history is more that

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Speaker 3: you can't separate the two, and that if there is

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Speaker 3: a Biden problem, it will become a democratic problem by

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Speaker 3: the end that you know that ultimately it's a verdict

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Speaker 3: on his governance and democratic governance, and everyone in the

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Speaker 3: party is going to face a big undertow if in

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Speaker 3: fact he can't win some of these states. Now you

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Speaker 3: know again Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He you know, those

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Speaker 3: are really tight again, as they have been in each

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Speaker 3: of the last two elections, Arizona and Nevada. Most polling

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Speaker 3: it shows Trump with a lead, a significant lead, but

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Speaker 3: I don't view those as gone for Democrats. Georgia in

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Speaker 3: North Carolina could be very art although North Carolina is

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Speaker 3: kind of an intriguing wildcard with abortion, but really after

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Speaker 3: the Big three, it's kind of a fall off.

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Speaker 1: But I want to just pause for a minute and

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Speaker 1: remind you how much Republicans flood the zone with junkie polls,

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Speaker 1: and how much polling is really no longer a science.

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Speaker 1: And also more importantly, I want to just look back

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Speaker 1: at Wisconsin for a minute, where Ron Johnson basically won

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Speaker 1: on polls right. Every poll showed Mandela Barnes seven eight

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Speaker 1: points behind Mandela Barns abandoned by the Democrats lost by

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Speaker 1: half a percent. So I do think there is an

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Speaker 1: X factor here, and Republicans have used polls really successfully

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Speaker 1: to suppress the vote.

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Speaker 3: It's something like real good politics really is just as

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Speaker 3: I said, just an arm of the Republican master's machine.

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Speaker 3: You're right, and they do include a lot of junk piles.

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Speaker 3: My focus is less on the absolutes of the ors

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Speaker 3: race than on the patterns that we were talking about earlier.

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Speaker 3: We know I think I do think we know from

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Speaker 3: public and private polling that Biden use holding ist is

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Speaker 3: vote better older and wider than younger and more diverse,

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Speaker 3: and he is running better among the most likely voters

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Speaker 3: than the least likely voters, two.

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Speaker 2: Which are both two very good you want those voters.

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Speaker 3: All of that has clear geographic implications, and they leave

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Speaker 3: him with a path to winning. But what could be

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Speaker 3: a narrow path, and that's kind of where he is.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I could see a world where Biden can

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Speaker 3: survive losing Wisconsin and replacing it with that. No, I

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Speaker 3: could see a world where he can buy losing Michigan

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Speaker 3: and replacing it with Arizona, Nevada. There's no I think

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Speaker 3: plausible replacement for Pennsylvania, And in all likelihood, it seems

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Speaker 3: unlikely to me that he would win Arizona and Nevada

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Speaker 3: unless he's also winning all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

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Speaker 3: Given what we are seeing with you know, younger Hispanic voters,

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Speaker 3: like I said, Dobbs happened after twenty twenty. January sixth

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Speaker 3: happened after twenty twenty. Biden's vote on boncollege educated white

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Speaker 3: voters is likely to be higher, I think, in twenty

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Speaker 3: four than it was in twenty despite concerns about things

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Speaker 3: like inflation, and if he doesn't decline much among the

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Speaker 3: blue collar whites that added little boost in the Madison

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Speaker 3: you know suburbs, and the Detroit suburbs and the Philadelphia

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Speaker 3: suburbs could allow him to squeeze out all three of

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Speaker 3: those states, even if turnout and or margins are down

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Speaker 3: for him in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia. The math works

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Speaker 3: there there are enough of those college whites that you

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Speaker 3: can offset even if you underperform a little bit among

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Speaker 3: black voters, whereas it in the Southwest, I think the

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Speaker 3: Hispanic vote is just too big a piece of the

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Speaker 3: Democratic coalition. If in fact, he does lose anywhere near

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Speaker 3: as much ground as now seems possible, it's going to

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Speaker 3: be hard to make it up. So what's the answer

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Speaker 3: for him? I mean, you know, in Arizona, Nevada, it's

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Speaker 3: recover as much out of that ground on Hispanic voters

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Speaker 3: as you can get it as close to that roughly

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Speaker 3: sixty percent that they got in twenty twenty. And then

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Speaker 3: when that shortfall is down a manageable number, you could

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Speaker 3: make it up with college white women who are pissed

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Speaker 3: off about Dobbs and particularly with abortion, you know, referenda

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Speaker 3: on the ballot in both of those states. But he's

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Speaker 3: got to I think he's got to improve his own

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Speaker 3: circumstance with some of these voters. That is more the

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Speaker 3: key than you know, seeding more doubts about Trump, because,

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Speaker 3: like I said, Biden is already the doubts about Trump

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Speaker 3: are evident in the results that Biden is running so

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Speaker 3: far out of his own approval rating compared to previous presidents,

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Speaker 3: but pull rating at thirty eight or forty winning a

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Speaker 3: state that is a big goal. That is a lot

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Speaker 3: of people who have to say, I don't think you're

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Speaker 3: doing a good job, but I'll vote for you with

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Speaker 3: you anyway, because I think the other guy's threat millions

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Speaker 3: of people will say that ten million people will say

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Speaker 3: that I guarantee you twelve million people, but well fifteen, well, eighteen,

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Speaker 3: that I think is less clear. And that's why Biden,

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Speaker 3: I think, has to improve his own standing, why it's

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Speaker 3: so essential for him to do that.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Ron Brownstein, Thank you Mollie.

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Speaker 1: Spring is here and I bet you are trying to

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Speaker 1: look fashionable, So why not pick up some fashionable all

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00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 1: new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store

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00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: with all new designs just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats,

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00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: and top bags. To grab some head to fastpolitics dot com.

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Speaker 1: And Applebaum is the author of Photocracy, Inc. The Dictators

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Speaker 1: who Want to Run the World. Welcome back to Fast

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Speaker 1: Politics and Applebaum.

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Speaker 4: Thank you very much for having me.

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Speaker 2: I'm so delighted to have you.

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Speaker 1: So I'm reading this article by you in the Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, this is just so important, And I

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Speaker 1: actually was thinking I was reading, I was thinking, this

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Speaker 1: is so important, this is so important. Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: how we should just be talking about this all the time.

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Speaker 1: It's actually part of your new book, Autocracy inc. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how it's so timely when it's part of

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Speaker 1: a book, but it is like you've just completely nailed

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Speaker 1: what we are about to go through and how important

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Speaker 1: it is to know these things, So talk to us

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Speaker 1: about that.

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Speaker 4: So the article describes authoritarian propaganda, not as we used

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Speaker 4: to know of it in the twentieth century, when the

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00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 4: Soviet Union used to make posters of tractor drivers with

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Speaker 4: kind of square jaws and talk about steel production. Authoritary

438
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 4: and propaganda nowadays is mostly not promoting anything, but is

439
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:27,439
Speaker 4: instead aimed at undermining democracy and kind of smearing democracy.

440
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 4: And it's also aimed at creating citicism and nihilism, partly

441
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 4: by doing this kind of non stop lining that we've

442
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 4: all become so familiar with, which eventually leads people to say,

443
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 4: I have no idea what's true. I am not paying

444
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 4: attention to this I'm checking out and I'm going to go,

445
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 4: you know, fishing or whatever. And the argument of the piece,

446
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 4: which is part of a larger argument in the book,

447
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 4: is that although this was a kind of early Russian project,

448
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 4: it's now there are a lot of countries that do it.

449
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: China is one, Venezuela is one, but also a part

450
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 4: of the American Republican Party, uses the same tactics, of

451
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 4: the same language, and is in turn amplified by you know,

452
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 4: Russian and Chinese and other actors. And it's not a conspiracy.

453
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 4: This isn't a description of some kind of secret saying

454
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 4: that's happening. It's a open project and you don't have

455
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 4: to know any special you don't have to have access

456
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 4: to secret rooms in order to see it happening. I mean,

457
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 4: you can analyze it with your own eyes.

458
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 2: And Republican members of the House have brought this up.

459
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 4: Michael McCall, Yes, so, I mean one just little mini example.

460
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 4: This is more specifically about Russia and Ukraine. There was

461
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 4: a story kind of bouncing around the internet about the

462
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 4: fres of Ukraine Zelenski, who supposedly owns two vulgar yachts,

463
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 4: and of course he doesn't own the yachts, and other

464
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 4: people owned the yachts, and the yachts aren't for sale,

465
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 4: and he didn't buy them. And it's just a piece

466
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 4: of false propaganda. But it's circulated in the same ecosystem

467
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 4: that other are right and Republican and Russian propaganda circulates.

468
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 4: And several people heard colleagues within the Senate, the Senator

469
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 4: Tom Tillis is another Republican, also talked about this, so

470
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 4: much so that when the House and Senate were debating

471
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 4: sending more weapons to Ukraine, people were saying, why should

472
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 4: we send weapons when Zelenski's just going to use the

473
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 4: money to buy yachts. That there are now members of

474
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: Congress who believe this complete garbage and who have trust

475
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 4: in it because it comes from the same world where

476
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 4: they get the rest of their information is just one

477
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 4: little example of how smoothly the system now works.

478
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just terrifying.

479
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 1: I feel like the propaganda that these autocrats shopped in

480
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen was a little bit different than what it's now.

481
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 4: I mean, they just get better at it, they get

482
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 4: more sophisticated. Some of the cruder things have disappeared. I mean,

483
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 4: it felt a few years ago, like the Russians were

484
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 4: just throwing spaghetti against the wall to see what would stick.

485
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 4: You know, Oh, let's do anti immigrant groups in Idaho.

486
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: You know, let's do something else. And it's just become

487
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 4: more sophisticated and more targeted. They're better now at hiding

488
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 4: tracks so you can, for example, they you know, they'll

489
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 4: create a video, put it online, seed it to several

490
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 4: people so that they retweet it or repost it, and

491
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 4: then the original video will disappear so that it's not

492
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 4: traceable anymore, so that you can't know where it's from,

493
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 4: a lot of the social media companies in twenty twenty

494
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 4: took down and actually some of them, I think Meta

495
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 4: still takes down networks of what they call inorganic material.

496
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 4: You know, so if they see an inorganic which is

497
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 4: foreign propaganda that they recognize as being false online and

498
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 4: they take it down. But if they can't detect it

499
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 4: because it's now being posted in different ways, then of

500
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 4: course it's much harder to take it down. And of

501
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: course the other big shift from twenty twenty is that

502
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 4: Twitter doesn't take it down or certainly doesn't make down

503
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 4: all of it or any of it or any of it,

504
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 4: and even Facebook has become somewhat less interested in doing this.

505
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 2: Partly.

506
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 4: Then another piece of the story, and this is also

507
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 4: in my article, is that but of course there's been

508
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 4: a there's been a you know, all of the academic

509
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 4: groups and researchers and think tanks and others who were

510
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 4: set up after twenty sixteen to track this stuff and

511
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 4: trace it and understand it have all in the last

512
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 4: few years become focus of really quite horrible and in

513
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 4: some cases debilitating attacks from the far right. Some of

514
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 4: it is personal there's just sphere campaigns, and some of

515
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 4: it is lawsuits, congressional investigations. Jim Jordan has a committee

516
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 4: in Congress that's investigating some of them, the Weaponization of

517
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 4: Government Committee. Deafly, his Weaponization of Government Committee has looked

518
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 4: at this, and so even some of the rudimentary things,

519
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 4: you know, the kind of occasional phone calls between the

520
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 4: state department or federal government and the social media companies

521
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 4: are now you know, almost re bote. You know, people

522
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 4: don't do it. We've I'm successfully pushed back against anyone

523
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 4: who talks about this, studies it, thinks about it, or

524
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 4: publishes about it. And that's again because it helps them,

525
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 4: it serves their purposes. So we now have a system

526
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 4: where whether it's Russia or it's China, where it's other

527
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 4: autocratic state, it puts out this kind of material, there's

528
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 4: less resistance to it, and there's less willingness or ability

529
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 4: to stop. And even then there was four years ago.

530
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 4: And I just say another piece of the story being

531
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: that we're talking now about the United States. But of

532
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 4: course this is an international project. The Chinese have spent

533
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 4: billions of dollars buying and creating television stations and websites

534
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 4: and content sharing agreements in countries all over Africa, all

535
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 4: over Asia, Latin America, and of course they use that

536
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 4: network to put out the same stuff too, So the

537
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 4: stuff that we see is also seen in all over

538
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 4: the world. So it's not just, of course we're mostly

539
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 4: interested in the US piece of it, but there's a

540
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 4: wider project as well.

541
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: I mean, it just feels insurmountable, and which I guess

542
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: is the point, right.

543
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I don't think it's insurmountable. It's just

544
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 4: that it hadn't yet been taken seriously. But I mean,

545
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 4: so funny thing for me is that I've been talking

546
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 4: about this for I'd say a decade. You know, I

547
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 4: started seeing this stuff in twenty fourteen, at the time

548
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 4: the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. A lot of people

549
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 4: who are aware of it. I mean, there's almost nothing

550
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 4: in my article that hasn't been published somewhere before, been

551
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 4: talked about by so on before. It's known, but it

552
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 4: somehow hasn't risen to the level of being a proper

553
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 4: focus of anybody's concern, and so far the efforts to

554
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 4: push back against it are pretty minimal. I mean, ultimately,

555
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 4: part of the problem is that you'd have to think

556
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 4: about talenttering, especially the Chinese influence in Africa. You have

557
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 4: to think about changing the way the democratic world, not

558
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 4: just the US, but Europe and others do their messaging,

559
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 4: conduct their communications. You probably have to start thinking about

560
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: how you regulate social media, by which I don't mean

561
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,479
Speaker 4: censor it. I mean we make the algorithms transparent, give

562
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 4: some people some choice about algorithms and so on. I mean,

563
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 4: you'd have to begin doing very serious things, and so

564
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 4: far it hasn't risen to the level of the thing

565
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 4: that people in Congress are most aware of and speak about.

566
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 4: And when it does, of course, the tech companies lobbied

567
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: very hard against it, against any kind of change or

568
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 4: any kind of regulation. There are some pretty easy fixes

569
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 4: for some of this. I don't know that there are

570
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 4: easy fixes, but even just being able to identify it

571
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 4: would help people. I would make social media companies legally

572
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 4: responsible for stuff that appears on their platforms, which would

573
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 4: of course change them completely, you know, but I'm not empress,

574
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 4: and I don't get to decide that that's what I

575
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 4: would do. I think people have correctly identified some of

576
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: this in TikTok, and I think that's a part of

577
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 4: the reaction against it. That's the first time I've seen

578
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 4: conversse take seriously both TikTok as a system for collecting

579
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 4: data about Americans but also as a source of algorithmic

580
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 4: amplification of who knows who's messaging? Actually, I mean, one

581
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 4: of the weird things about TikTok, just but which is

582
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 4: not unusual, is that we don't even know that much

583
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 4: about it, and we can't study it, so we don't

584
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 4: really know what people are seeing or reading on it,

585
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 4: or how millions of young people who read it are

586
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 4: reacting to it. And there seems to be a kind

587
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 4: of incoherate recognition, and there's something about that that's wrong.

588
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 4: But of course, you know, TikTok is an easy target

589
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 4: because it's Chinese zone and by the way, not in

590
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: Band in China, and band also in India, right, you know.

591
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 4: But of course the bigger problem would be the American owned.

592
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 3: Companies, right.

593
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: And there does seem to be an interest in Congress

594
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: in shirking all responsibility for any kind of regulation.

595
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, partly because again I said, there's been a successful

596
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 4: conservative backlash against any regulation on the grounds that any

597
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 4: form of regulation is censorship, even though you know, we've

598
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 4: had regulation of political advertising for decades. We have in

599
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 4: the past regulated broadcasting, you know, we it's not it's

600
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 4: not unheard of most cursive decrovision, that's right. Most most

601
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 4: democracies do regulate some pieces of the public sphere. The

602
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 4: United States is much less regulated than other than than

603
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 4: other countries are. And I mean, ironically, what may eventually

604
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 4: happen is that the Europeans may regulate it, and then

605
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 4: right the social media companies will be forced to conform

606
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 4: to that, and that might change things. The conversation in

607
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: Europe is kind of farther along and more death. And

608
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 4: you know, European un is a kind of regulatory superpower.

609
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 4: I mean, that's what they do, that's what they're really.

610
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 1: You're in Poland right now. This is like the year

611
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: of important elections. Many many countries are having elections, some

612
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: of them reel, some of them puppet.

613
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: Can you talk about what this sort of the rest

614
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: of the world looks like.

615
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 4: Well, Poland had an election. It's big election was in October,

616
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 4: and we had a surprising actually change of government. There

617
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 4: was an autocratic populist government here that very much used

618
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 4: the kind of propaganda that I described in my article

619
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 4: about the West being degenerate and raised for stability and

620
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 4: so on. And yet they lost, and they lost thanks

621
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 4: to a really broad grassroots campaign as well as a

622
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 4: reaction of young people against this propaganda and also specifically

623
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 4: against very harsh abortion laws. So there's a lesson for

624
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 4: for the United States. We do, however, have a set

625
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 4: of their European elections coming up here in June, and

626
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 4: those are very important because they shape the European Parliament,

627
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 4: which in turn shapes the European Commission, which is the

628
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 4: thing that like rights, for example, these kinds of regulations

629
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 4: and there is here a fear that the European far right,

630
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 4: which is very much influenced by authoritarian narratives. Some of

631
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 4: the European far right parties are clearly Russian linked and

632
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 4: maybe Russian funded, and there is a fear that they

633
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 4: will have They're not going to win, but they're going

634
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 4: to have more influence after this year than they had before.

635
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 4: So this is certainly not a problem unique to the

636
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 4: United States, and it's not even unique to North American Europe.

637
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 4: And it's kind of international now, right, It is such

638
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 4: an important year in the world. So can you sort

639
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 4: of explain to us what the progression of this authoritarian

640
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 4: world looks like and sort of your thoughts on how.

641
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 2: To get out of it.

642
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 4: My book, which is called Autocracy, Inc. Is a book

643
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 4: about the network of modern authoritarians. So it's you know, Russia, China, Iran,

644
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 4: North Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and a dozen others specifically the

645
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 4: country that collaborate in various ways, not because they have

646
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 4: anything ideologically in common. In fact, they don't at all.

647
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 4: You know, Chinese communism and Iranian theocracy and Venezuela and

648
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 4: Bolivarian socialism. You know, these are really different things. They

649
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 4: don't have anything in common that they're all or, but

650
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 4: they have some things in common that they're all against.

651
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 4: And they're against us. And by Us, I mean Americans

652
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 4: holds Europeans, and they're against us because we use the

653
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 4: democratic language that is the most threatening to them. All

654
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 4: of them have domestic oppositions. They have you know, Nivaldi's

655
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 4: movement in Russia, or the Hong Kong democracy movement, or

656
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 4: the Iranian women's movement. All of them use language about transparency,

657
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 4: about freedom, about rights, about democracy, and that's a threat

658
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 4: to this group of dictators. And so one of their

659
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 4: efforts is to work in common against that language and

660
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 4: also to continue to undermine US, so undermine European Union,

661
00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 4: undermine NATO, any Western alliances or organis that they can

662
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 4: weaken they will try to do.

663
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: I mean.

664
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 4: The main thing for US, I think, is to reframe

665
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 4: our thinking. So, you know, in the US you have

666
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 4: foreign policy experts in Asia or foreign policy experts you know,

667
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 4: who focus on Eastern Europe or who focus on South America.

668
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 4: That's not how Russia and China see the world, and

669
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 4: they see it as a global system. You know, they're

670
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 4: fighting against democracies and democratic ideas wherever they are, whether

671
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 4: it's in Syria or whether it's in Ukraine, or whether

672
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 4: it's in Taiwan, and they look at it as all

673
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 4: of these things is connected. And I think it's important

674
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 4: for us to begin to look at it that way too.

675
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 4: I mean, it's one of the reasons why I've thought

676
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 4: the war in Ukraine was so important, because Russia it's

677
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 4: a test case. You know, Russia is seeing you know,

678
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 4: can you break every rule in the book about changing

679
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 4: borders by force? Can you put people in concentration camps,

680
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 4: can you kidat s chouldren, which they do in large numbers,

681
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 4: and can you then get away with it? And if

682
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 4: you can, then other people are going to follow. Again,

683
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 4: it's not an alliance. They don't all like each other.

684
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 4: They don't have everything in common all the time, but

685
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 4: they do watch what one another does and then they

686
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 4: make adjustments based on that experience.

687
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 2: Anne Applebaum, thank you so much, really appreciate you.

688
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 5: How thank you.

689
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:10,879
Speaker 3: Mother.

690
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:17,240
Speaker 1: Nikki Freed is the chair of the Florida Democratic Party.

691
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 1: She is the former of Florida Commissioner of Agriculture.

692
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Fast Politics.

693
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,240
Speaker 5: Nikki Freed Hello, Mollie, Thanks for having me on today.

694
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 1: I desperately wanted to have you on because I want

695
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: to talk to you about Florida. You are the head

696
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party in Florida. This is a very

697
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 1: complicated time to be the head of the Democratic Party

698
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 1: in Florida.

699
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: I don't say, and because we're not on television, I'm

700
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 2: going to say this shit's going down in Florida.

701
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: I want you to walk us through what it is

702
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,280
Speaker 1: that's happening in your great state and why I actually

703
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 1: believe that you guys could be the next Kansas. Yeah.

704
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, like let me let me also

705
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 6: level set for everybody of like how we got here

706
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 6: and to know that not all is lost. You know,

707
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 6: first of all, it's been Yes, it's been thirty years

708
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,280
Speaker 6: since we have elected here in the state of Florida

709
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 6: a Democratic governor. In those thirty years, there's only been

710
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 6: a handful, including myself, that have been able to be

711
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 6: elected statewide.

712
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: You were the third highest state ranking office. You were

713
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: the AG chair.

714
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I was at commissioner.

715
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 6: I was elected in twenty eighteen as a member of

716
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 6: the Florida cabinets, the only one in twenty eighteen to

717
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 6: get across the finish line. The same year that Andrew

718
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 6: Gillam had lost against Ron DeSantis, and we had lost

719
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 6: Senator Nelson to unfortunately Rick Scott, and so we walked

720
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 6: in in twenty eighteen, where again we had lost that election,

721
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 6: and the party really kind of was in despair, you

722
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 6: know that we lost Enator Nelson, we lost you know,

723
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 6: are the great White hope, you know of Gilam, and

724
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 6: so the party really kind of just you know, took

725
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 6: a lot of beets and really didn't spend the time regrouping,

726
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 6: trying to figure out what went down, what happened. And

727
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 6: so we went into despair. And in twenty twenty was

728
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 6: the pandemic, and everybody stayed home with the Republicans here

729
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 6: in the state, continued to door knock, continued to work,

730
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,919
Speaker 6: you know, all of our communities, and unfortunately Democratic Party

731
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 6: wasn't doing voter registration, wasn't doing any things. And then

732
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 6: here comes twenty twenty two and you've got a you know,

733
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 6: an incumbent who we all knew was going to run

734
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 6: for President of the United States, had a war chest

735
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 6: of one hundred and fifty million dollars, which is unheard

736
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 6: of for a governor's race, and you know, the Democrats

737
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 6: stayed home in twenty twenty two. We had over a

738
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 6: million Democrats that did not vote in November twenty twenty two.

739
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 6: And if that's a million Democrats, then that's the least

740
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 6: five hundred thousand left leaning and Independence Independence now are

741
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 6: about a third of the state and so the party

742
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 6: collapsed in twenty twenty two. But that is not who

743
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 6: we are. You know, every single election cycle, we're losing

744
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 6: or winning by by margins. I won by sixty seven

745
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 6: hundred Dissant is only won by thirty threeenty twenty.

746
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:01,959
Speaker 5: So I walked in as now chair.

747
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 6: Everybody kept saying and laughing at me, like you jumped

748
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 6: onto the Titanic after it hit the iceberg?

749
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:08,720
Speaker 5: What are you thinking?

750
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 6: And the reality is I was thinking that I love

751
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,879
Speaker 6: my state and that we've got to get us back

752
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 6: on track. And I know that November twenty twenty two

753
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 6: is an outlier. We've got a lot of work to do.

754
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 6: But there's a lot of people that are just really

755
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,919
Speaker 6: frustrated with the direction that DeSantis has taken the state.

756
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 6: The extremism between the book banning and now we're living

757
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 6: under a six week abortion ban. I never in a

758
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 6: million years would have thought that the state of Florida

759
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 6: would be a six week abortion band state. And here

760
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 6: we are, and yes, that is how we're going to

761
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 6: get ourselves out of this mess is by recognizing the

762
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 6: extremism and this.

763
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 5: Is not who the people of Florida are.

764
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: So there really was a state party structure problem in Florida,

765
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: and I had heard that for years and years at

766
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: the state party in Florida was really decimated. Why you

767
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: to talk about what this state abortion ban looks like

768
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 1: for Florida because you were sort of the last of

769
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: the free states in the South where women could get abortions.

770
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: And this is really a sea change, all in.

771
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: The service of Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign.

772
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, that's exactly what it is.

773
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 6: You know that seventy seven percent of Flordians did not

774
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 6: want a six week abortion ban that was pulled during

775
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 6: legislative session in twenty three and twenty two. We had

776
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 6: just gotten the fifteen week which people were already unhappy with,

777
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 6: and that to your point, Molly, it was all for

778
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 6: DeSantis to run for president and after the fall of Road,

779
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 6: they just they went crazy and they went to session

780
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 6: extreme and the impacts is going to be drastic. We

781
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 6: were already hearing the stories out of the South. We

782
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 6: were already hearing the stories of the fifteen week abortion ban,

783
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,720
Speaker 6: and unfortunately now I did a big press conference earlier

784
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 6: part of this week. A majority of Floridians don't know

785
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:56,439
Speaker 6: that a six week abortion ban.

786
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 3: Is on the books.

787
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 5: So what's going to happen?

788
00:40:58,840 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 3: What does that mean?

789
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,399
Speaker 6: That means means that, you know, a nineteen year old

790
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 6: girl who just found out that she was pregnant, missed

791
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 6: her first period and was like, Okay, I'm pregnant.

792
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 3: Oh no, what am I going to do?

793
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 6: Because at that point she isn't going to get assistance

794
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,320
Speaker 6: as she wants to terminate the pregnancy. And if she

795
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 6: is in college and doesn't have any financial means to

796
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 6: travel to Virginia, which is so close at state right

797
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 6: now in the South, you know, she's going to be

798
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 6: making some impossible decisions.

799
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: And we know that.

800
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 6: And that is just you know, one small, small example,

801
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,760
Speaker 6: but that there are so many women that need access

802
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 6: to this healthcare, that have miscarriages, that are going to

803
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 6: be put into healthcare risks or complications in the pregnancy

804
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 6: that need to terminate the pregnancy, and now aren't going

805
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 6: to get access to this healthcare. And it's not going

806
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 6: to stop abortions, as we all know and we've heard

807
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 6: from the generations before us, it's going to stop safe

808
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 6: in legal abortions. And so women are going to go

809
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 6: to back alleys again, They're going to have to go

810
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 6: to other countries where there might not be safety measures

811
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 6: and the right health care providers, or there have to

812
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 6: save up dollars to travel to other parts of this

813
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 6: country that are going to not have accessibility either, because

814
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 6: now those clinics are going to be inundated with now

815
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 6: everybody else from the South, and it's just going to

816
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 6: be a really horrendous situation here. And again most women

817
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 6: don't even know that this is happening, and when they

818
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 6: find out, it may be too late for them.

819
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: Why I brought up Kansas was that in Kansas there

820
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 1: was a governor called Governor Sam brown Back, and he

821
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: enacted a ton of really restrictive laws and he's stripped

822
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 1: the federal government of you know, he's a real libertarian asshole.

823
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: We can say that here. And what happened is now

824
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:44,720
Speaker 1: Kansas has a democratic governor who just got re elected

825
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: Laura Kelly. And that's Kansas, not even Florida. That's not

826
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: a purple state, that's a red state. So and we've

827
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: actually seen this in other states where we sent it

828
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: right Democrat. I mean, I feel like North Carolina is

829
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: tracks closer to Florida then, but yes, yes, North Carolina,

830
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: and there have been other states in the South where

831
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: you have found a revolt of bad policy and Republican

832
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 1: governor overreach. So I would and you know, DeSantis's term

833
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 1: momented out. He'll be out in twenty six if we

834
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 1: make it that far right. So talk to us about like,

835
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: I mean, do you see a ground swell? We had

836
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 1: this woman who did the Florida ballot and who's working

837
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: on the Florida ballot initiative.

838
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 2: I mean, are you seeing that kind of revolt in

839
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 2: the state.

840
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm seeing it a multifacets, you know, first and

841
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 6: foremostly you know, when I walked in here, I knew

842
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 6: that the first priority I had to build was bringing

843
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 6: faith and hope back to the party, into the base

844
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 6: of the party because there was a lot of despair.

845
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:50,959
Speaker 6: You know, there's a lot of despair the last couple

846
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 6: of years of feeling like everybody's just hitting their head

847
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 6: against the wall that there was no way through that.

848
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 6: So that was one of the really big obstacles that

849
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 6: we had for the first year, was showing life you

850
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 6: know that there's a heartbeat back here in the Democratic

851
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 6: Party to give that hope and that we're going to fight,

852
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 6: and we're going to fight back, and we're going to

853
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,879
Speaker 6: fight smarter. You know that so many times that we've

854
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 6: been fighting, we fight stupid and it doesn't make an impact.

855
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 6: So now that the party is back up and back

856
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 6: on track, is winning elections, is building that faith based

857
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 6: back up in the party apparatus. Now we can have

858
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 6: real constructive conversations with the now almost one third independents

859
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 6: that are in our state and the moderate Republicans who

860
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 6: legitimately don't like this mag extremism.

861
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 5: That's not who they are. There are people that go to.

862
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 6: Margaritaville, you know, that go to Key West that just

863
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 6: want to be left alone, very libertarian and a lot

864
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 6: of respects here and are not happy. But we had

865
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 6: to go to and build that faith and trust that

866
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 6: we are the solution to what they're experiencing. In the

867
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 6: Republican Party under DeSantis, and I think that we've done

868
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 6: that now that we can go into these conversations. Say, look,

869
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 6: property insurance number one issue here in the state of

870
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 6: Florida as we're about to get into hurricane season, that

871
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 6: it has increased four hundred percent since DeSantis took over

872
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 6: as governor. That is an impossible number for most Filaridians

873
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 6: to be able to to financially plan on to see

874
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 6: almost fifty percent increases, five hundred percent increases in their

875
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 6: property insurance. That inflation is number one in the country.

876
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 6: That people can't afford to live in Miami, they can't

877
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 6: afford to work in the state. And so now it's like, okay, well,

878
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 6: now we have a Democratic party that has a plan,

879
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:28,799
Speaker 6: that we have a plan of how to get out

880
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 6: of this that we are taking all their Republican talking points.

881
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 6: We want less government, less spending, but smart spending, making

882
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 6: sure that we're back to free market, which is again

883
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 6: the Republicans have played winter losers.

884
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 1: Florida has been hit by wild inflation way more than

885
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: is normal, and part of that is because of this

886
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 1: problem with the inflation and the insurance. Can you explain

887
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: to our listeners why insurance has gotten so crazy there

888
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 1: in Florida because it's a lack of free markets, right.

889
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

890
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 5: So it's a couple of things that that's happened.

891
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 3: You know.

892
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 6: First off, they have come in and tried to in

893
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 6: some ways deregulate the industry and get the industry blank

894
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 6: checks and have basically not allowed consumers to go in

895
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 6: there and sue when they haven't been able to get

896
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 6: their reimbursement for any of their lost property. And so

897
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 6: with that, the insurance company has just continued to increase

898
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 6: their rates and there's no accountability whatsoever. There was a

899
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 6: hearing that happened last week or two weeks ago where

900
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 6: one of our property insurers had the largest fine for

901
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 6: not paying off decks from Hurricane Ian a couple of

902
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,439
Speaker 6: years ago. But that is a million dollars that isn't

903
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 6: going to it's not going to homeowners. The homeowners have

904
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 6: already been lost of all of their damage and haven't

905
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 6: been able to get the money back. So one is

906
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 6: just the fact that they've given a free check to

907
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 6: the insurance industry. But the other thing is what has

908
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 6: happened in our state for the last of ability for

909
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 6: the legislature to come in and work on mitigating our risk.

910
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 6: And I say this as far as climate crisis, Florida

911
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 6: is the most susceptible state in the nation to climate change,

912
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 6: whether to sea level rising, our coastal communities, that our

913
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 6: reliance on agriculture, our springs, our wetlands, and so we

914
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 6: as a state have not invested in how to harden

915
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 6: our buildings, how to make sure we're building proper drain

916
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 6: news systems, how the sea level rising situation. And so

917
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 6: insurance company is like, wait a second, you all are

918
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 6: willing to mitigate your own risk, but you're expecting us to.

919
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 6: So they're leaving the state. They're dropping policies because they're

920
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 6: seeing these Cat four's, Cat fives every single year threatening

921
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 6: and hitting the state. And so the insurance companies are leaving.

922
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 6: So unfortunately, we've got our own state insurance company called Citizens,

923
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 6: which is supposed to be the insurer of last resort,

924
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 6: but right now in some places is ensured for the

925
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 6: only resort. And that is a life my ability right now.

926
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 6: Of I believe it's somewhere close to six billion dollars.

927
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 6: Maybe I'm totally off on that number, but I think

928
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 6: it's a lot higher. But some insane number that if

929
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,839
Speaker 6: in fact a CAT five comes and like hits the stay,

930
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:13,399
Speaker 6: I think it's one.

931
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 5: Hundred and thirty seven billion.

932
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,919
Speaker 6: Now then I'm like way off, but some extraordinary number

933
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 6: that if a CAT five hits a very populated area,

934
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 6: it will in fact bankrupt the state. And Desand has

935
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 6: been playing games and not trying to resolve the situation

936
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 6: and trying to figure out how to do this. Instead

937
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 6: has just given a blank check to the insurance industry.

938
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 2: That's such a totally insane thing.

939
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: But there's also other inflationary aspects in Florida right there's

940
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 1: a real housing crisis in the state too.

941
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 6: There's a tremendous housing crisis, and part of that is

942
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 6: because we've had thirty years of Republicans have a trust

943
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 6: fund called the Sadowski Fund. That money is supposed to

944
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 6: be every single year, it's from you, certain parts of

945
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 6: our taxes that come in it is supposed to go

946
00:48:57,120 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 6: to this trust fund. The trust fund is solely to

947
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 6: build affordable homes across the state. Since Governor Jeb Bush

948
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 6: and now we've gone through Jeb, we went through Charlie

949
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 6: cris now we've gone through on DeSantis has gutted that

950
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 6: Trust Fund and a tune of like almost two billion

951
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 6: dollars of affordable homes that have not been built over

952
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 6: the last few decades. And so it's really put a

953
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 6: crunch and the bottom of the market, and so the

954
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 6: top of the market is very expensive, and it is

955
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 6: pushing down homeowners to the point what used to have

956
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 6: been you know, average houses used to know, one hundred

957
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 6: and fifty thousand dollars. Now it's three hundred and fifty

958
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 6: thousand dollars. Well, your middle class family can't afford those

959
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 6: higher costs, and certainly, you know, our families that are

960
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 6: working two three jobs certainly can't. And so people can't

961
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 6: afford to live here. And the other problem is that

962
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 6: DeSantis has refused all of the incredible things that have

963
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 6: come from the Biden Harris administration to redo inflation, you know,

964
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:57,359
Speaker 6: whether it is you know, through the IRA or it's

965
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 6: from the Infrastructure Bill, all these things that are supposed

966
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 6: to have been brought down to the States for more

967
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 6: job growth, for more infrastructural building, for a reduction of inflation.

968
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 6: DeSantis has refused to take down those dollars. So Floridians

969
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 6: are not getting the benefit that other parts of the

970
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 6: country are receiving from the things that has happened from

971
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 6: the federal government to alleviate some of this inflation.

972
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that is such a destructive thing that

973
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:25,239
Speaker 1: these Republican governors are doing, where they're turning down you know,

974
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 1: free school breakfasts for kids. Yeah, I mean that stuff

975
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: is like crazy. So what are you guys doing on

976
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 1: the ground in Florida to register voters.

977
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 2: And what does that look like?

978
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 5: Everything?

979
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 6: As I said in the beginning of the show, is

980
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 6: we as a party had relegated that responsibility to third parties,

981
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 6: and third parties can't do partisan voter registration. They can't

982
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 6: go into a conversation and persuade some many to regislars

983
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 6: of Democrats. So we have seen a tremendous uptick to

984
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 6: the point that it's almost one third of our voter

985
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 6: registration in Florida are independents. But they're our voters, like

986
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 6: they're clearly like they should be with us, but they

987
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,840
Speaker 6: haven't had those conversations. So what we have done and

988
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 6: had to do is bring everything back in house. We

989
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 6: completely have revamped our internal structure. We have a statewide

990
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,839
Speaker 6: voter registration director, and of course the Republicans have made

991
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:14,760
Speaker 6: it much more difficult to register voters.

992
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 5: They've changed the laws.

993
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 6: They every two years now everybody on vote by mail

994
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,879
Speaker 6: has to re enlist, So everybody at December thirty first

995
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,359
Speaker 6: of twenty twenty two, the entire vote by mail list

996
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 6: was wiped out. So we are now having to spend

997
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,439
Speaker 6: time and resources getting everybody back on to those lists.

998
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 5: The other thing that they've done is they've changed the

999
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 5: way that.

1000
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,720
Speaker 6: The Supervisor of Elections have to go through the roles

1001
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 6: every single year and clean out and purpurge voters and

1002
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 6: have redefined what an active and inactive member looks like.

1003
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:49,280
Speaker 6: Last year, Democrats lost eight hundred and eighty thousand active

1004
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 6: voters onto an inactive list, and they've said either it's

1005
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 6: a cycle, and so a lot of people who didn't

1006
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 6: vote in twenty twenty two got kicked out. As we

1007
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 6: just talked about the housing crisis, people are renting and

1008
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,800
Speaker 6: rents going up, so they're moving. People are our CouchSurfing.

1009
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 6: We have a much more transient population. And if you

1010
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 6: got one postcard from the SOE and it came back undelivered,

1011
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 6: you automatically are going on the inactive list. And so

1012
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 6: we are sitting with like kind of a three prong approach.

1013
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,840
Speaker 6: One to get people back on the vote by mail lists.

1014
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 6: Two because there's a three to one ratio of advantage

1015
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 6: for Democrats on vote by mail to get people off

1016
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,320
Speaker 6: the inactive list, to get them back onto you active

1017
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 6: and define new voters. And so we are going into

1018
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 6: the communities. We're doing canvassing, and we have some paid

1019
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 6: programming that is happening in Miami Dad. Certainly for any

1020
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 6: of your listeners, go to Florida Dems dot org. We

1021
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 6: can certainly use every penny now that's going to vote

1022
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 6: a registration to increase that gap.

1023
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:44,839
Speaker 5: So it is all hands on deck. We are doing

1024
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 5: everything we can.

1025
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 6: We're prioritizing those areas where we have to flip seats

1026
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 6: where right now in a super minority in both the

1027
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 6: Florida House and the Florida Senate, and so we're prioritizing

1028
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 6: those areas on seats that we know are flippable to

1029
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:01,080
Speaker 6: make sure that all three of those categories are increased

1030
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:03,360
Speaker 6: so that way we're very competitive. And those seats that

1031
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 6: are ours, they are our seats. They are D plus eleven,

1032
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,279
Speaker 6: D plus twelve, DE plus five that we lost in

1033
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 6: November twenty twenty two, but we're going to take them

1034
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 6: back this year.

1035
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 1: What I think is really interesting about Florida is some

1036
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 1: of the most exciting young congress people come from Florida.

1037
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about Maxwell Frost, I'm thinking about Anna eft Money. Yes,

1038
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 1: and it really is true, Like you guys have an

1039
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 1: incredible group of young politicians coming out of that state.

1040
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 2: Tell me about the faces that are going to the

1041
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 2: young faces. Jesus, I've become that person.

1042
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 3: You know.

1043
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 5: It's actually kind of exciting to your point.

1044
00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 6: We have the second largest college population first of all,

1045
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 6: outside of California, and what I did when I first

1046
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 6: came in is recognize that in order for us to

1047
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 6: truly take back Florida, we had to turn over the

1048
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 6: key to that younger generation. We've built a youth Council

1049
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 6: that has thirty five and unders. Congressman Frost is the

1050
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 6: advisor to it. We have, you know, really brought them

1051
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 6: into the party. We have them in leadership circles, we

1052
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 6: have them on committees. Myself, our college Dems, and our

1053
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 6: Youth council chair opened up our General Assembly last weekend

1054
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 6: on our weekend conference and really giving them the keys

1055
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 6: to make sure that they've got us set at the

1056
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:30,040
Speaker 6: table now, not you know, in ten, fifteen, twenty years,

1057
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 6: because unfortunately we've seen an older generation older than us

1058
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 6: haven't turned over the keys. And so it's really important

1059
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:39,280
Speaker 6: that those faces and that we're building a broad coalition,

1060
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 6: a big tent. We have a very big tent of

1061
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:45,879
Speaker 6: very different political views and ideologies inside the Democratic Party

1062
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 6: and want to make sure that everybody feels seen. And

1063
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 6: then everybody understands that in order to build a big tent,

1064
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 6: everybody's got to respect each other's views, but understand that

1065
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 6: the mission ahead is to bring a united Democratic Party

1066
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 6: for November.

1067
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, thank you, Thank you Nikki Freed.

1068
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 6: Of course, I thanks Molly for all that you do

1069
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:07,440
Speaker 6: and defending democracy across the country. Your voice is so

1070
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 6: valuable to there we are today.

1071
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:13,760
Speaker 3: A moment.

1072
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 4: Jesse Cannon, Malei john fasts, what were you seeing at

1073
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 4: the Trump trial?

1074
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 2: Today? Trump Trial?

1075
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 1: The Speaker of the House of Representatives, MAGA, Mike Johnson

1076
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 1: comes down to lend his guys support and also to

1077
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:35,920
Speaker 1: get around the gag order by trashing the prosecutor and

1078
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 1: the DA in his speech. He then immediately starts fundraising

1079
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 1: off of it, sending texts and emails.

1080
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:45,800
Speaker 2: This is the Speaker of the House.

1081
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 1: He's number two in line of secessions the presidency.

1082
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 2: This man is out there with his party's.

1083
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:58,600
Speaker 1: Presumptive nominee, fundraising and trying to perform a workaround for

1084
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 1: the gag order during his criminal trial to assess whether

1085
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:08,880
Speaker 1: his payments to an adult film star constitute an illegal

1086
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 1: election contribution, and then covered up with fake business filings. Congratulations,

1087
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 1: Republican Party, You've really done it this time. Mike Johnson

1088
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 1: and his fundraising appeal at the criminal trial is our

1089
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: moment of fuckery. That's it for this episode of Fast Politics.

1090
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 1: Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the

1091
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 1: best minds in politics makes sense of all this chaos.

1092
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 1: If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to

1093
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 1: a friend and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks

1094
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: for listening.