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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds.

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Speaker 2: And Donald Trump says the United States is a.

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Speaker 1: Third world hellhole run by perverts and thugs.

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Speaker 2: We have such a great show for you today.

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Speaker 1: Congresswoman Alyssas Lodkin talks to us about her Senate run

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Speaker 1: in the great state of Michigan. Then we'll talk to

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Speaker 1: the Financial Times Christopher Miller about his new book, The

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Speaker 1: War Came to Us. But first we have the host

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Speaker 1: of the Think Like an Economist podcast, fan favorite University

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Speaker 1: of Michigan, professor Justin Wolfers.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Fast Politics.

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Speaker 3: Justin Wolfers at pleasure, Molly.

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Speaker 2: We started talking.

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Speaker 1: We were in recession anxiety, right Republicans wanted it, Democrats

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Speaker 1: were worried about it.

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Speaker 2: Where are we.

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Speaker 3: Now, emerging post recession anxiety. I'm not sure how we

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Speaker 3: feel about it talking to our therapist.

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Speaker 1: I certainly am talking to my therapist, but I only

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Speaker 1: see them on Tuesdays.

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Speaker 2: It's same, It's a good day for therapy.

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Speaker 1: You know, there were a lot of numbers this week

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Speaker 1: that told really good economic stories.

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Speaker 2: So talk us through those numbers.

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Speaker 3: I want to get back a step because you started

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Speaker 3: with recession anxiety, because they want to make clear to

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Speaker 3: your listeners the difference between anxiety and reality. Think about

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Speaker 3: this as economics cognitive behavioral therapy. You're exactly right, Molly.

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Speaker 3: We've gone through two years where the only word that

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Speaker 3: anyone wanted to say about the economy was recession. Yet

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Speaker 3: at the same time, we've created jobs at an absolutely

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Speaker 3: gangbusters pace. We've pushed unemployment down to a fifty year low.

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Speaker 3: You ask people if they find it easy to find work,

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Speaker 3: they say yes. If they think jobs are plentiful, they

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Speaker 3: say yes. If they expect wages to rise, they say yes.

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Speaker 3: So what we have is, you know, maybe this is

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Speaker 3: economic psychiatry instead, but schizophrenia here. Economic reality has been strong,

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Speaker 3: but it's been the vibe, it's been the way we

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Speaker 3: talk about it. It's been the anxiety that has been far,

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Speaker 3: far weaker. With that, let me answer your question, do

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Speaker 3: you want to tell me what it is?

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Speaker 1: My question is talk to us about these numbers that

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Speaker 1: we are getting through.

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Speaker 3: I love that question because you could ask me that

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Speaker 3: any week. So look, there was one part of our

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Speaker 3: economic anxiety that was totally serious, totally real, and was

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Speaker 3: in the numbers. That was inflation. We've all noticed it.

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Speaker 3: You can't help but notice it at the grocery store

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Speaker 3: that prices are rising, and they were rising at a

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Speaker 3: rate that was wildly unfamiliar to many of us. A

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Speaker 3: year ago, inflation was running at nine percent, and for

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Speaker 3: anyone of roughly our age or younger, they had never

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Speaker 3: experienced infleation like that in their adult lifetimes. Inflation last

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Speaker 3: week we got the latest numbers. Months later, inflation's down

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Speaker 3: to three percent. That's one a stunning reversal, and two

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Speaker 3: remarkably close to normal. So normal is when inflation's two percent.

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Speaker 3: And you might say, hey, I don't like it when

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Speaker 3: inflat price is ris by two percent, But the truth

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Speaker 3: is two percent of anything is basically barely noticeable. When

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Speaker 3: inflation is two percent. Some things are getting cheaper, maybe

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Speaker 3: a cell phone bill, and some things are getting more expensive,

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Speaker 3: maybe construction work or the local handyman. And enough things

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Speaker 3: are going up, but enough things are going down that

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Speaker 3: it doesn't really change things. And so the whole goal

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Speaker 3: of the FED is to get inflation low enough that

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Speaker 3: you don't think about it. Well, we just spent two

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Speaker 3: years thinking about it and we're on the cusp of

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Speaker 3: inflation falling to levels low enough and sustainably enough that

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Speaker 3: we can go back to not thinking about it again.

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Speaker 1: I think the prevailing wisdom, which turned out to be wrong,

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Speaker 1: so maybe it was the prevailing anxiety, was that the

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Speaker 1: FED raising rates would eventually bring the American economy into

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Speaker 1: a recession.

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Speaker 2: Explain to us why that was wrong.

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Speaker 3: Let me explain to you something even more exciting good,

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Speaker 3: which is what a wonderful, amazing couple of years we've had,

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Speaker 3: because we've had something that almost never happens. Over the

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Speaker 3: past two years. We've created jobs, we've reduced unemployment, and

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Speaker 3: we've reduced inflation, so the two biggest economic variables have

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Speaker 3: both improved at the same time. That's incredibly rare. What

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Speaker 3: a fantastic, fabulous, joyful moment, and seriously bask in the

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Speaker 3: joy that brings.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: That relates to your question, why am I so excited

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Speaker 3: about that? Because usually we think, when we're thinking about

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Speaker 3: from one year to the next, you can get more

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Speaker 3: of one and a bit less of the other. And

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Speaker 3: so if we wanted a bit less in flam so

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Speaker 3: the theory went, we would have to have higher unemployment.

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Speaker 3: But wonderfully enough, we're getting lower inflation and lower employment.

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Speaker 3: Is your next question, why?

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Speaker 1: Yes?

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Speaker 2: My next question is why? Why? Why? Tell me why?

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Speaker 3: Justin more for us, I spend six lectures in my

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Speaker 3: economics one on one class teaching how the macroeconomy works

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Speaker 3: over the course of the business cycle. Let me try

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Speaker 3: and get it done to two minutes, maybe.

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Speaker 2: One You know me?

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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, So one thing that causes inflation is too

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Speaker 3: much demand. People have too much money, They want to

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Speaker 3: go to the store. They try and buy more stuff

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Speaker 3: than the store has. So what does the store do

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Speaker 3: at jacks up prices. So if that's what's driving inflation,

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Speaker 3: then the only thing to do is crush the economy.

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Speaker 3: So people are no longer so optimistic, so they'll stop

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Speaker 3: forcing prices up. That's one theory of what was happening.

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Speaker 3: You heard a lot of that theory from people like

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Speaker 3: Larry Summers. Another theory is, well, another fact that can

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Speaker 3: drive inflation what's going on on the supply side. And

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Speaker 3: this is where we know that, for instance, global supply

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Speaker 3: chains became totally disrupted during COVID. We know that when

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Speaker 3: Putin invaded Ukraine, it totally messed up global energy markets.

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Speaker 3: We know from just walking down the street that COVID

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Speaker 3: totally disrupted all commerce on main street. I don't know

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Speaker 3: about your street, but my local dray cleaner hasn't yet reopened.

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Speaker 3: The tables are still kind of oddly too far apart

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Speaker 3: at my local restaurant. And there's a whole lot of

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Speaker 3: just getting back to normal. We all do a little

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Speaker 3: bit more work from home, and there's a whole lot

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Speaker 3: of getting back to normal we haven't yet done. Now,

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Speaker 3: the thing about a supply shark is, let's say Putin

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Speaker 3: invades Ukraine, that forces energy prices up, and that's it.

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Speaker 3: That's the whole story. Now, energy prices are higher, but

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Speaker 3: the thing is they're no longer rising, and inflation is

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Speaker 3: when things prices keep rising. So the thing about a

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Speaker 3: supply shark is if you just wait, it works its

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Speaker 3: way through the system and it stops adding to an inflation.

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Speaker 3: And in fact, with some things like global supply chains,

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Speaker 3: if you just wait, global supply chains were all messed

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Speaker 3: up and then they unfurled, and that actually pushes prices

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Speaker 3: backed down. And so if you think inflation's driven by

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Speaker 3: supply sharks, you think the best policy response is to

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Speaker 3: wait and so what we've seen is waiting has proven

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Speaker 3: to be a remarkably useful strategy. Now you might say, wait,

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Speaker 3: where's the FED and all this? Well, the FED did

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Speaker 3: jack up interest rates. But if the Fed's interest rate

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Speaker 3: hikes were what was responsible for driving inflation down, it

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Speaker 3: would have caused unemployment to rise and it would have

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Speaker 3: caused slow economic growth.

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Speaker 4: But it didn't.

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Speaker 3: So really, what I think we're learning is getting back

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Speaker 3: to normal, getting back to business, letting supply chains unfurl

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Speaker 3: turned out to be the right strategy, and it's led

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Speaker 3: to inflation falling while maintaining a pretty good economy for

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Speaker 3: most people. Now, I don't want to overstate my point.

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Speaker 3: This is the last footnote and then I'll get out

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Speaker 3: of economics one O one mode. Did inflation rise you

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Speaker 3: to supply or demand? It could be a bit of both.

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Speaker 3: And so we've managed to get inflation from crisis levels

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Speaker 3: down to nearly normal levels just by waiting. Maybe that

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Speaker 3: was the supply shock. But getting it down from nearly

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Speaker 3: normal all the way down to normal, well that might

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Speaker 3: be a little bit more work. So I think we've

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Speaker 3: got half the job done. It may be that the

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Speaker 3: second half is going to be a little bit harder.

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Speaker 2: And why would that be.

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Speaker 3: Well, if all the good news of supply shocks working

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Speaker 3: their way out of the system is done, that could

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Speaker 3: be the case. I'm not sure. Then whatever inflation is

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Speaker 3: left may well be due to too much demand. And

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Speaker 3: if that's the case, the only way to get inflation

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Speaker 3: down any further would be to slow demand. And that

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Speaker 3: is what the Fed is trying to do. It's not

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Speaker 3: trying to cause a recession. It's trying to cause what

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Speaker 3: it calls a soft landing. Like, Hey, if we just

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Speaker 3: get people a little bit worried so they spend a

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Speaker 3: little bit less, maybe there'll be fewer queues at the supermarket,

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Speaker 3: and maybe the supermarket will feel that it can't raise

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Speaker 3: its prices quite as much, and that's going to be

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Speaker 3: enough to lower inflation.

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Speaker 1: I'm kind of optimistic we're on the way there because

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Speaker 1: the numbers are coming down.

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Speaker 2: That's why you're optimistic.

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Speaker 3: Right now, we're back out of the economics textbook to

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Speaker 3: the real world, and the numbers are coming down. We're

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Speaker 3: seeing reduced inflation pretty much across the board. And then

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Speaker 3: how boring do you want to get here?

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Speaker 2: We can be a little more boring Oh good.

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Speaker 3: That is like joy for any economist to hear it. Okay,

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Speaker 3: like this is in the weeds, but it turns out

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Speaker 3: to matter. So that's why I just kind of wanted

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Speaker 3: to go here. What's the most important price for the

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Speaker 3: cost of living? It's the price of shelter. That's the

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Speaker 3: biggest part of your budget and the biggest part of mine.

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Speaker 3: It turns out the way that the government measures shelter

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Speaker 3: inflation as part of the CPI is it looks at

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Speaker 3: all the leases in the economy, including people who signed

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Speaker 3: a lease like six, eight, nine, ten, eleven months ago.

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Speaker 2: So that's going to take more time to go down.

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, you're a natural economist.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, and natural we.

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Speaker 3: Know leases were going crazy a year ago. But if

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Speaker 3: we look instead just at the new lead that are

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Speaker 3: being signed this month, they're not going crazy anymore. And

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Speaker 3: so if that keeps up, and we expect it will,

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Speaker 3: then that means that over the next year, all leases,

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Speaker 3: it's not that they're going to go down, they're going

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Speaker 3: to stop going up. And so therefore shelter inflation is

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Speaker 3: going to dissipate rapidly and it's almost in the bank.

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Speaker 3: And so the most important good in the economy we

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Speaker 3: know is going to stop being as inflationary as it

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Speaker 3: has been. And that's one of the reasons that economists

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Speaker 3: are optimistic, where we feel pretty good about the numbers

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Speaker 3: where they are, but we know that they signal better

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Speaker 3: numbers are ahead.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty interesting.

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Speaker 1: But what about, for example, like part of inflation that

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Speaker 1: was good was that wages were going up. Where does

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Speaker 1: that leave wages, because I mean, there's a real disconnect

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Speaker 1: between wages not going up with inflation.

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Speaker 3: Great question, Molly, So one way to think about this

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Speaker 3: as a race between wages and prices. Look, if prices

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Speaker 3: go up ten percent and your wages go up ten percent,

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Speaker 3: you came out pretty much. Even if prices got ten percent,

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Speaker 3: your wages go up twelve percent, you came out ahead.

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Speaker 3: If prices got ten percent your wages got eight percent,

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Speaker 3: you came out behind. And what we've seen over the

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Speaker 3: past year and a half is that prices had run

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Speaker 3: ahead of wages, and so people really were feeling a

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Speaker 3: squeeze because there really was a squeeze. Now, the thing is,

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Speaker 3: wages don't bump up and down quite as much as

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Speaker 3: prices do, and so wages have been running at nominal wages,

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Speaker 3: the amount of cash you get, had been growing at

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Speaker 3: a rate of about four and a half percent for

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Speaker 3: a few years, but prices went from growing at three

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Speaker 3: percent all the way up to growing at nine percent,

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Speaker 3: and so when they were growing faster, people were falling behind.

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Speaker 3: But now we're in a situation where wages are growing

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Speaker 3: at four percent and prices are growing at three percent.

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Speaker 3: So now we're not just keeping up with prices, we're

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Speaker 3: getting ahead. A shorter way of saying that is, for

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Speaker 3: the average American, their paycheck now goes further. Yes, prices

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Speaker 3: a rising at the grocery store, but so is your paycheck,

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Speaker 3: and those real wages are what really matter for determining

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Speaker 3: your purchasing power and how well you're doing. I want

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Speaker 3: to add a really really important asterix to this. One

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Speaker 3: objection is just and you're just talking about averages because

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Speaker 3: that's what economists do, or macroeconomists. So if we actually

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Speaker 3: look at what's happened to the wages of the most

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Speaker 3: poorly paid Americans, they've risen quite dramatically in the post

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Speaker 3: pandemic period, and they've risen faster than prices. And so

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Speaker 3: we've actually had in this history. I think the White

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Speaker 3: House just hasn't told enough. We've had a period of

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Speaker 3: now close to three years in which wage gains are

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Speaker 3: going to those who need it most. You might say, well,

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Speaker 3: that's great, hooray. Let me put that in context. That

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Speaker 3: comes after four decades in which that's basically never happened.

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Speaker 3: So those at the bottom are doing a little better.

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Speaker 2: So that's good. I mean, will that change?

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Speaker 3: I hope not.

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Speaker 2: If inflation stops going up, will there be more of that?

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Speaker 3: Two things? What's going to happen for the typical American?

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Speaker 3: My guess is is that wages fell behind prices a

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Speaker 3: bit through twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, So

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if in twenty three and twenty

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Speaker 3: four wages keep rising at a pretty good clip even

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Speaker 3: as prices don't rise as fast. So I expect a

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Speaker 3: lot of people to get a bit of catch up.

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Speaker 3: And then for those who I really care about, those

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Speaker 3: at the bottom end of the income distribution, I kind

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Speaker 3: of feel pretty optimistic for them. So they got really

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Speaker 3: bad at over several decades of globalization and trade from

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Speaker 3: China and technological change and all sorts of forces. What

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Speaker 3: are the biggest forces that are going to brutalize our

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Speaker 3: labor market over the next couple of decades. I know

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Speaker 3: the biggest one I'm thinking about right now is AI.

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Speaker 3: AI is coming for the white collar jobs, not the

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Speaker 3: blue collar. The computer now can do what I do

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Speaker 3: for a living. What do I do for a living?

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Speaker 3: I take in a lot of information and simplify it.

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Speaker 3: Turns out GPT is really good at that, and so

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Speaker 3: it's my job that's on the line, not the blue

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Speaker 3: collar workers. So I think the blue collar workers maybe

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Speaker 3: are in for a pretty good run in the next

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Speaker 3: couple of decades.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about this week has been like binomics week,

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Speaker 1: and the White House has been sort of trying to

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Speaker 1: explain what they did that was right on the economy.

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Speaker 1: I'm always a little cynical, you know, when anyone names something,

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Speaker 1: but it actually tell us why I'm wrong to be

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Speaker 1: cynical at all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you should absolutely name it. Let's call it mollonomics.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it'd be crazy.

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Speaker 3: Look, why are they branding it. They're branding it because

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Speaker 3: it looks like a pretty good product. The good product

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Speaker 3: is a good economy. Why are they doing it right now? Well,

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Speaker 3: the economy is doing well, inflation is finally starting to

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Speaker 3: come down, and so now they're happy to tell their story.

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Speaker 3: Your cynicism is, did they really do it? I think

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Speaker 3: that cynicism is shared by most of the economics profession.

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Speaker 3: So a simple rule of thumb is people in Washington

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Speaker 3: think that people in Washington determine everything everywhere in America.

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Speaker 3: People outside of Washington think people in Washington don't do much.

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Speaker 3: That's useful, very hard to point to specific things that

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Speaker 3: the administration has done to create the enormous macroeconomic gains,

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Speaker 3: like why is unemployment low? What did Trump do to

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Speaker 3: get to low unemployment? What did Biden do to gets

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Speaker 3: low unemployment? Let me give one stout defense of the

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Speaker 3: Biden administration. Am I allowed to swear on this show?

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Speaker 1: Yes, we love it, Yes, trigger warning, Justin is going

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Speaker 1: to swear, but he's going to swear in Australia.

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Speaker 3: Here's the real defense of the administration. They didn't fuck

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Speaker 3: it up. So that actually is really worth something. You know,

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty, we got hit by a once in

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Speaker 3: a lifetime public health, economic, social, political shock, and we

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Speaker 3: had a White House that was artly intent on fucking

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Speaker 3: it up right, and they fucked it up in ways

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Speaker 3: that killed hundreds of thousands of people and probably caused

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Speaker 3: marked economic harm. And so the thing I admire most

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Speaker 3: about Biden is actually twenty twenty one, which was remarkably boring,

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Speaker 3: which is he came to office and said, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to keep you safe. I'm going to get you vaccinated,

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Speaker 3: We're going to have sensible rules. And that has a

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Speaker 3: massive economic impact that you may or may not see

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Speaker 3: in the unemployment rate or in GDP, but you're seeing

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Speaker 3: you know, look, if a couple more people around the

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Speaker 3: dinner table still alive, you see it. A sense of

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Speaker 3: security that people have. You see in their continued attachment

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Speaker 3: to the labor force that they didn't think the only

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Speaker 3: thing that was safe to do was to drop out.

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Speaker 3: And so, you know, it's not often that you see

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Speaker 3: a politician totally fuck it up because the economy is ingenious.

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Speaker 3: It's full of smart people who want to get work

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Speaker 3: done no matter what Washington does. We did see it

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty, and we haven't soon it under Biden,

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Speaker 3: and they want to give them credit for that. The

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Speaker 3: other is a big part of Bidenomics. They keep using

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Speaker 3: this term bottom up and middle out. They do care

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Speaker 3: deeply about the income distribution, and so I think the

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Speaker 3: fact that that lower paid workers finally get doing a

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Speaker 3: bit better that may well trace itself back to some

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Speaker 3: of the administration policies.

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Speaker 1: Right, really interesting, justin I really appreciate you.

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Speaker 2: You will come back.

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Speaker 3: I'll be here for you, mate.

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Speaker 2: How about.

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Speaker 1: Congresswoman Alyssa Slotkin represents Michigan's seventh district. Welcome to Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: Congresswoman Slotkin, thank you, thanks for having me. First, we

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Speaker 1: need to talk about your speech that was this morning

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Speaker 1: or yesterday.

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Speaker 5: Let's just spout an hour ago.

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Speaker 1: This is going to air Monday, and today is Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Tell us about your speech. It's really an interesting and

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Speaker 1: insane thing that Republicans are doing, as oppose to usual

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Speaker 1: when they do insane things.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think the speech I gave was

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Speaker 5: related to us about to vote on the Pentagon budget.

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Speaker 5: And you know this kind of incessant obsession that my

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Speaker 5: Republican colleagues have for sticking in these culture war issues

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Speaker 5: into what have long been bipartisan kind of meat and

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Speaker 5: potatoes issues on the Hill. And so late last night

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Speaker 5: they passed a bunch of really extreme amendments through the

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Speaker 5: Rules Committee. We're going to vote on them, and you

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Speaker 5: know they include things like getting rid of affirmative action

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Speaker 5: for our military service academies, all the officers that are

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Speaker 5: going to be running the military. I mean, just really

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Speaker 5: crazy things. One of the things was about again going

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Speaker 5: after American service women serving on active duty and banning them,

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Speaker 5: preventing them from getting any assistance, and getting to a

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Speaker 5: state that has abortion services. What that means in real

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Speaker 5: terms is that you know a woman who has signed

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Speaker 5: up for the military, and she signed up years ago.

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Speaker 5: She's on active duty, she wants to serve her country,

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Speaker 5: protect her country. She has no choice on where she

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Speaker 5: gets based, and she's sent to Texas, where they have

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Speaker 5: a full ban on abortion, including for things like rape

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Speaker 5: and incest. If she wants to get an abortion, she

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Speaker 5: has to go five hundred miles away to Kansas City.

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Speaker 5: And the Defense Department had said we'd give her leave

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Speaker 5: to do that, we'd help her get her a bus

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Speaker 5: ticket to go do that. And these guys are willing

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Speaker 5: to threaten the entire Pentagon budget to say no, not

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Speaker 5: one dollar, not one helping hand in getting her even

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Speaker 5: though she has no choice on where she's based. And

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Speaker 5: I think the bigger story here, and the point I

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Speaker 5: tried to make in my speech is we need to

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Speaker 5: hear what my colleagues are telling us in the House,

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Speaker 5: in the Senate, everywhere they go. They are not done

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Speaker 5: just because Roe got overturned by the Supreme Court. They

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Speaker 5: are not done by passing complete bans in their states

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Speaker 5: like Alabama and Texas, which is where the authors of

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Speaker 5: these things are. They're not done until they get a

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Speaker 5: federal ban on abortion. So that even if states like

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Speaker 5: Michigan vote on their ballot to ensure the right to

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Speaker 5: an abortion, they're not done until they overturn that, until

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Speaker 5: they get a federal ban on abortion. And this is

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Speaker 5: just part and parcel of it. They're holding up the

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Speaker 5: Defense Department budget. They're holding up two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 5: three and fourced our generals who can't be confirmed because

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Speaker 5: one senator wants his policy reverse.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about that senator. His name is Tommy Tuberbell.

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Speaker 1: He is from the state of Alabama, and he has

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Speaker 1: been he is now. He has held this up for

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Speaker 1: a long time and is actually threatening our national secure day.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, it is unprecedented for folks who may

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Speaker 5: not know he has now created a gap in the

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Speaker 5: command out of the Marine Corps, the chief of Staff

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Speaker 5: of the Army, the Navy, the chairman of the Joint

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Speaker 5: Chiefs could be held up. I mean, our senior most positioned.

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Speaker 5: And for a guy who's a coach, right, that's his

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Speaker 5: whole like stick is that he's a coach, Like exactly,

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Speaker 5: how do you put your best foot forward if there's

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Speaker 5: no coach for the team, right, if there's no three

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Speaker 5: and four star general who's supposed to be leading millions

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Speaker 5: of men and women. And I think what was illustrative

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Speaker 5: this last week was that he made these horrible comments

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Speaker 5: about white nationalism and white nationalists, and very quickly Republicans

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Speaker 5: around the Senate, including his own fellow senator from Alabama,

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Speaker 5: said no, no, no, that's not right. White nationalists are

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Speaker 5: not just white people, and you need to clarify your comments.

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Speaker 5: It should be easy to condemn white nationalism. He took

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Speaker 5: back his comments, he corrected his comments. So he's vulnerable

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Speaker 5: to pressure from his colleagues. So all I'm asking is

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Speaker 5: that Republicans who claim to care about national security in

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Speaker 5: the Senate pressure the guy. He's clearly vulnerable to pressure

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Speaker 5: as he holds up our national security interest for his

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Speaker 5: own culture war.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a pretty unprecedented thing. And so what's happened

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Speaker 1: here is this is a sort of very standard budgetary

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Speaker 1: thing that happens in Congress. And what Republicans have done,

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Speaker 1: our listeners will be shocked to.

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Speaker 2: Hear that Marjorie Taylor Green is involved in.

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Speaker 1: This has put They put a lot of poison pills

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Speaker 1: in the amendment to make it so that if Democrats

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Speaker 1: vote for it, they will be voting for things defunding

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Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: You really can't script this stuff. It's unbelievable. Then, at

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Speaker 5: the exact moment, President Biden and all of our NATO

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Speaker 5: allies are standing up next to President Zelenski. They're welcoming

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Speaker 5: in two new members of NATO, They're pushing back on

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Speaker 5: Vladimir Putin and protecting democracy. You have Mack Gates putting

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Speaker 5: forward a ban on all assistance to Ukraine, like all

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Speaker 5: of it. So it's just and the idea that that

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Speaker 5: party cares about national security at this point, and you know,

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Speaker 5: the traditional view is that Republicans care about national security,

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Speaker 5: they're big on defense. It's just the whole has been

439
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 5: punched so widely through that, and I call upon I

440
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 5: know there are people in the Republican Party who care

441
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 5: about national security, just do something about these extreme elements

442
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 5: and like, have your voice heard if you really care

443
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 5: that much.

444
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 1: So Republicans are going to find themselves in a very

445
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: sticky wicket though, because this could be the road to

446
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: government shut down. I mean, eventually the Senate is doing

447
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 1: their own version of this. They're going to have to

448
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,640
Speaker 1: get the votes to get this passed.

449
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 5: Right, A lot of what's going on is kind of

450
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 5: a showdown within the Republican Party, you know, sort of

451
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 5: the Freedom Caucus folks versus the other folks. And I

452
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 5: can't pretend to know the ins and outs of that.

453
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 2: A few sane Republicans, right.

454
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 5: I would just say, we're going to learn a lot

455
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 5: as these votes come down, because I think we've seen

456
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 5: a number of Republicans say publicly like I'm not voting

457
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 5: for this stuff. So it's again another very public debate.

458
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 5: I don't know where it's going to come down, but

459
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,439
Speaker 5: this is what happens when you let extreme elements of

460
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 5: your party run you right own you. And that's that's

461
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 5: what's happening right now.

462
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: It does sort of stem from this McCarthy not being

463
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: able to control his caucus absolutely.

464
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 5: I mean, I think they have a very slim majority,

465
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 5: just four seat majority, so it makes it hard to govern.

466
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 5: I mean, look, this is exactly the majority Democrats had

467
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 5: in the last Congress. Though we didn't look like this, right,

468
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 5: We didn't have this like a pitched battles going on

469
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 5: in the hallways of Congress against our own party. You know,

470
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 5: we had our debates, but we keep it inside the family,

471
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 5: you know, and largely. And so when you give away

472
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 5: your power like that and you don't stand up for more,

473
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 5: you know, traditional values on how to run and how

474
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,719
Speaker 5: to govern, you have the extremists takeover. And they have

475
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 5: lots of seats on the Rules Committee, the committee that

476
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 5: passed all these things in the dead and night. And

477
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 5: this is what happens.

478
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 1: It is pretty interesting. So Democrats are in the minority,

479
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: but it's a very slim minority. The Republicans are not

480
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: able to you know, they're having a lot of trouble.

481
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 1: They're really not able to pass even you know, the

482
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 1: like messaging bills that wouldn't get passed anyway. They're stuck

483
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: on those. I mean, is there an opportunity here for Democrats.

484
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 5: Well, look, I mean whenever you just whenever any side

485
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 5: has a four seat majority, it's an opportunity to flip

486
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 5: that body in the next election. I mean, we need

487
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 5: five House seats to flip in twenty twenty four, and

488
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 5: we need to hold the seats that we have now.

489
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 5: That is eminently doable. I mean we lost the majority

490
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 5: just out of like New York.

491
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: Right, Yes, you saw that news today.

492
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 5: As a good Midwestern where who comes from a swing state,

493
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 5: I have to say, we've been doing our part in

494
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 5: Michigan and we need our friends in New York and California. Yeah,

495
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 5: to win some seats or with some feats back, and

496
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 5: but so it's eminently doable.

497
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: As a New Yorker, that was enraging. And I'm sure

498
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: you saw the news today. It may end up being

499
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: redistricted again.

500
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 5: I can't. I don't pretend on exanity York politics, but

501
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 5: not good.

502
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 1: Yes, but continue sorry, Yes, I mean it's that could

503
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: be good, but who knows.

504
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 6: Okay, Well, we have seats that President Biden won in

505
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 6: New York and California that should be able to flip

506
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 6: so that we can take the majority, and then you know,

507
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 6: we need the majority to mean something, right, we need if.

508
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 5: We have the House and the Senate and the White House,

509
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 5: we need to legislate and pass bills. And you know,

510
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 5: as someone who is running for the Senate, I feel

511
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 5: pretty strongly that we need to reform the filibuster so

512
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 5: the Senate can vote on things. The Senate isn't voting

513
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 5: in a serious way right now because they have a

514
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 5: slim majority. We have the filibuster in place, so thousands

515
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 5: of bills that we passed over in the House under

516
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 5: Democratic leadership sat on the desk of the Senate. And

517
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 5: I just don't think the era we live in right

518
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 5: now with the Supreme Court that we have, allows for

519
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 5: a dormant or quiet Senate. So I'm a big proponent

520
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 5: of philibuster reform in the Senate for sure.

521
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: Tell us about your Senate race.

522
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 5: We have our senior Senator, Senator Debbie Stabinow, who surprised

523
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 5: the heck out of us and announced in January that

524
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 5: she wasn't going to run again. I give her a

525
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 5: lot of credit. I mean, it is she is going

526
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 5: out at the top of her game. She's the chairwoman

527
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 5: of the Ag Committee, Agriculture Committee. It's a farm bill year,

528
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 5: huge piece of legislation in every five years. So she

529
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 5: surprised us because she's been representing Michigan in some form

530
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 5: or fashion for fifty years and it's still going strong.

531
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 5: I mean, she's like, you know, energizer Bunny. I got

532
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 5: in in February. It's an open seat. And you know,

533
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 5: for me, I just really have come to believe that

534
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 5: we are going through a decade of political instability in

535
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 5: the United States of America, that we will look back

536
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 5: on this period and say we were so polarized and

537
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 5: so turned against each other that nothing got done. We

538
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 5: were wobbling back and forth like a pendulum. And in

539
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 5: that decade, as we live in the middle of it,

540
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 5: we must do a better job of playing offense on

541
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 5: protecting our rights and our democracy, not just defense. And

542
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 5: that's something I want to be a part of in

543
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 5: the Senate. I want to help push. You know, my

544
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 5: background of strategic planning, like we need to get more

545
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 5: strategic and more serious with our plans on how to

546
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 5: protect ourselves, and then we need to to do other

547
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 5: really important things, like we are becoming a country where

548
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 5: it's harder to get into and stay in the middle

549
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 5: class from Michigan for the country, in a multi racial,

550
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 5: multi ethnic country, that is not good. That's not good

551
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 5: for our security. So, you know, there's a bunch of

552
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 5: things that I want to do in the Senate, but

553
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 5: recognizing where we are as a country and how we

554
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 5: get through this as a country, you need serious leadership

555
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 5: and that's what I hope to bring in the Senate.

556
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: We have so many women from Michigan on this podcast,

557
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 1: from your governor to your Secretary of State, and so

558
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: many congresswomen from Michigan who are really great. But when

559
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: it came time to fill this seat, the group sort

560
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: of came together. This isn't an enormous primary of different

561
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: Michigan congresswomen, of which there are many who are great.

562
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 2: Can you talk about that a little bit?

563
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 5: Well, look at it's an open seat, and in Michigan

564
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 5: that's a big deal. No one has claim to any nomination.

565
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 5: Anyone who wants to run can than is running. I mean,

566
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 5: there's definitely people who are running. And to me, you know,

567
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 5: I really wasn't involved in politics before Donald Trump was elected,

568
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 5: right Frankly, I was having to go brief Congress all

569
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 5: the time. In my prior life in national security, and

570
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 5: it was never like a club I was looking to

571
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 5: be a part of. And then this generational event happened

572
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 5: and Donald Trump got elected and he won in the

573
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 5: state of Michigan, and that was the first time I

574
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 5: ever even thought about running. To me, I don't focus

575
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 5: on other Democrats, and I don't like fighting and all

576
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 5: the nastiness and the circular firing squad that happens in

577
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 5: these things. I'm focused on what i want to do

578
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 5: affirmatively and positively, and I'm focused on keeping the seat

579
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 5: in Democratic hands because we have a terribly slim majority

580
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 5: in the Senate.

581
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 2: So that's what I do.

582
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 4: I've got to do.

583
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: But I just think it's interesting that the group gets

584
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: along so well, and it's sort of this one state

585
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 1: which has such conservative I mean, you guys have the

586
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: Michigan militia, also have these sort of amazing women politicians

587
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: who have come out of it.

588
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, but can I tell you something where I think

589
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 5: that comes from. First of all, michigan Ers are very practical,

590
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 5: hardworking people. Like our culture is not to obsessively talk

591
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 5: about yourself and self congratulate, but to just get your

592
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 5: work done, and that there's value and pride in that.

593
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 5: But I also have to say, when you're from a

594
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 5: swing state and you're a Democrat from a swing state,

595
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 5: you it is not theoretical. If you do not have

596
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 5: your you know what together, you're going to get rolled.

597
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 5: And the example from last summer a year ago, when

598
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 5: Roe was overturned, we were a full band state from

599
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 5: a nineteen thirty one law. And not only did we

600
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 5: come together every single elected official up and down the

601
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 5: ballot at every level to push forward on Proposition three

602
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 5: get it on our ballot, eight hundred thousand signatures in

603
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 5: eight weeks to get it on our ballot. Right, We

604
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 5: all talked about it, We were disciplined about it. We

605
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 5: had a plan even before Roe was overturned, because we

606
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 5: know in a swing state you cannot take things for granted.

607
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 5: So Michigan Democrats, but I would also guess Minnesota Democrats,

608
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 5: Wisconsin Democrats, folks who are who look over the cliff

609
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 5: and know that if they do do not get their

610
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 5: crap together, Republicans with a really scary agenda are going

611
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 5: to take over. That makes us more pragmatic and more concrete,

612
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 5: and that I think is a swing state or a

613
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 5: Midwestern state trait.

614
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: Right, No, no, and we're and a me and a

615
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: great example as we've seen that me and Minnesota has

616
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: done an incredible job with its legislature.

617
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I just think that it's hard to think

618
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 2: of a of a.

619
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,719
Speaker 1: State that has passed more progressive legislation quite so quickly.

620
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: Tell us when is your primary, etc.

621
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 5: Well, in Michigan, I think a lot of Midwestern states

622
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 5: have late primary. Ours is in August of twenty twenty four,

623
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 5: so lots of time in the time. What people want

624
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 5: and expect is someone who just listens and fights. It's

625
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 5: not rocket science, it's not something you know some sort

626
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 5: of algebraic equation. Just show up, listen, and go and

627
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 5: do something when your people need you. As a member

628
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 5: of Congress currently, that's what I'm going to continue to do,

629
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 5: and that's what I hope to offer and hope to

630
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 5: earn people's votes.

631
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, fantastic, Thank you so so much.

632
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 5: Of course, thanks for having me.

633
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: Hi.

634
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: It's Mollie, and I am wildly excited that for the

635
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 1: first time, Fast Politics, the show you're listening to right.

636
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: Now, is going to have merch for sale over at.

637
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: Shop dot fastpoliticspod dot Com. You can now buy shirts, hats, hoodies,

638
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Speaker 1: and toe bags with our incredible designs. We've heard your

639
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Speaker 1: cries to spread the word about our podcast and get

640
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: a topeg with my adorable Leo the Rescue Puppy on it,

641
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642
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 1: dot fastpoliticspod dot com.

643
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: Thanks for your support.

644
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: Christopher Miller is a foreign correspondent for The Financial Times

645
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: and author of the War Came to Us, Life and

646
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: Death in Ukraine. Welcome to Fast Politics, Christopher Miller.

647
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 4: Thank you glad to be back.

648
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: Tell us where you are, what you're doing.

649
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 4: Sure?

650
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 7: I am talking with you from Central Kiev, Ukraine, capital country.

651
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 7: I'm inside my apartment, which I just returned to shortly

652
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 7: before we began this chat because I was out in

653
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 7: eastern Ukraine visiting some Ukrainian soldiers on the front line

654
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 7: to see how the counter offensive has been going.

655
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 2: I've lost track of sort of where we are in

656
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: this war. Talk me through where we are in this war?

657
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think you know, if you look at it

658
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 7: in terms of maybe several phases, right, that's probably the

659
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 7: easiest way to break it down. I would say, certainly.

660
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 7: From February twenty fourth twenty twenty two through maybe the

661
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 7: end of the Battle of Kiev was the first and

662
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 7: arguably the heaviest phase of fighting, when everything was sort.

663
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 4: Of up in the air.

664
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 7: We didn't know, you know, whether Kiev would fall in

665
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,919
Speaker 7: the first days, as some predicted and I think even

666
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 7: some Western governments had feared would happen. Obviously that didn't,

667
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 7: and the Russians were forced out of Kiev region. That

668
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 7: took us, you know, a little bit to the east

669
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 7: and south of the country, to some of the battlefields

670
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 7: that had been fought on previously for eight years prior

671
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 7: to that, right from twenty fourteen until twenty twenty two,

672
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:53,240
Speaker 7: and Ukraine's counter offensive from late last summer through autumn,

673
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 7: where the Ukrainians managed to route the Russians in that

674
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 7: northeastern region of Harkiv and also in the south and

675
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 7: recapture that big city of Hirsan, and then I would say,

676
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 7: from basically that point until this spring, things sort of

677
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 7: just ground on for a while. Russia tried his hand

678
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 7: at another offensive to recapture territory lost in Ukraine's counter

679
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 7: offensive and also to capture all of these four oblasts

680
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 7: or what we would probably refer to in the us

681
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 7: is as states that Vladimir Putin back in September deemed

682
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 7: to be Russian territory and at least in a Moscow

683
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 7: had formally annexed these territories, and that sailed this offensive.

684
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 7: Russian offensive came in the dead of winter. They really

685
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 7: really struggled and lost a lot of soldiers in the process,

686
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 7: and a lot of your listeners, I'm sure will remember

687
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 7: the Battle of Bakhmut, which was this grinding war of

688
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 7: attrition where Russia was using the Wagner mercenaries who were

689
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 7: being ordered across these open froz in open fields in

690
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 7: what the Ukrainians referred to as meat waves.

691
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 4: Right.

692
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 1: It was this.

693
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 7: Brutal World War one, World War two trench warfare style

694
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 7: battle that you know, ground on through through a spring.

695
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 4: Yeah.

696
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 7: You know, when I was out there in December, the

697
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 7: Ukrainian soldiers were telling me that Russian soldiers were just

698
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 7: you know, coming at them in waves of ten twelve

699
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 7: people and they would mow them down and then another

700
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 7: ten to twelve would come and capture five ten meters

701
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 7: more and they just you know, they didn't stop. Eventually,

702
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 7: that brings us to spring, right, and you know, Russia

703
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 7: finally got a battlefield victory of sorts, although it lost

704
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 7: tens of thousands of soldiers in the process, and we

705
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 7: began hearing a lot about Ukraine's much anticipated counter offensive

706
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 7: which is underway now. It's been underway for a little

707
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 7: over a month. We've seen a lot of Western weaponry

708
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 7: flow into the country. It's now being used by three

709
00:36:56,120 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 7: Western train brigades that are part of this dozen that

710
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 7: are being used for offensive action by Ukraine on the

711
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 7: front line. And so, you know, we're in this moment

712
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 7: now where everybody at the Vilnia summit in NATO this

713
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 7: week was talking about, you know, Ukraine's successes on the battlefield.

714
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 7: It's hopes for the Ukrainian counter offensive to recapture hopefully

715
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 7: quite a bit of Russian occupied territory. And as I said,

716
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 7: I just returned from the front line and can tell

717
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 7: you it's certainly moving more slowly than everyone has hoped,

718
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 7: but they are Ukrainians that is recapturing some ground.

719
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 4: It's just really slow and.

720
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 7: Plodding, and it sort of reminds me of the winter

721
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 7: of twenty fourteen or end of twenty fourteen early twenty fifteen,

722
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 7: where there was just really grinding war, except now it's

723
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 7: on a much much greater scale, of course, and Ukraine

724
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 7: has a lot at stake here, and you know, hopefully

725
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 7: what came out of a Vilnius is a sign that

726
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 7: Ukraine's going to continue getting the support it needs to

727
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,359
Speaker 7: restpect its territory. But one thing is clear, it's going

728
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 7: to be an extremely difficult fight. The Russians over the

729
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 7: winter time and spring, as Ukpanian was preparing for this

730
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 7: counter offensive, had a lot of time to dig in

731
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 7: and build its defenses. They've got these extremely heavily fortified

732
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 7: defensive lines throughout the south and the east, with minefields, trenches,

733
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 7: you name it. So it's intense at the moment. Like

734
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 7: I said, there's a lot of state.

735
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 1: So you're here to promote a book which is coming

736
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 1: out on July eighteenth.

737
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:35,479
Speaker 2: Is that right?

738
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 4: I am, Yes, July eighteenth.

739
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: The war came to us life and death in Ukraine.

740
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: This is like for my own edification as much as anything,

741
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: like how do you write this when the war is ongoing?

742
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 1: And probably when you got this to the printer, I mean,

743
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: I guess we sort of saw that first moment where

744
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,360
Speaker 1: everyone thought that the Ukrainians were going to get you

745
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: know that this was just going to be a short

746
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: Russia you know, takeover, but it has evolved, this situation

747
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 1: has changed so much.

748
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, one of the most

749
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,760
Speaker 7: asked questions of me and in the past year among

750
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 7: people who knew I was writing this, was, you know,

751
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 7: how do you end a book that likely isn't going

752
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 7: to have an ending by the time it's published. And

753
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,919
Speaker 7: I went into this knowing that there would very likely

754
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 7: not be a ceasefire even let alone some kind of

755
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 7: solution to this war. But in my case, I set

756
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 7: out to write a book that covered not only the

757
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 7: full scale invasion and events from February twenty fourth until

758
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 7: now or in the future, but to take a broader

759
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 7: look at how we got to this point and to

760
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 7: really underscore the fact that Russia's war of aggression against

761
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 7: Ukraine didn't start on February twenty fourth. It started in

762
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 7: winter and spring of twenty fourteen. And so, you know,

763
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 7: some of this book, the early early chapters in it,

764
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 7: actually begin as far back as twenty ten, when I

765
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 7: arrived in Ukraine and first as is a Peace Corps

766
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 7: volunteer before getting into foreign correspondence, and I lived in

767
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 7: the city of Bakmut, and so I knew that there

768
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 7: would sort of be an ending to the story, because

769
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 7: by the time I had come to the end of

770
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 7: this book, the Battle of Bakmut was raging, and it

771
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 7: was this was last winter, and I knew that if

772
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,280
Speaker 7: I found a way to, you know, leave it somewhat

773
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,919
Speaker 7: open ended, but to end in the city of bak

774
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 7: Mout as this battle was raging, there would sort of

775
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 7: be a little bit of a of a closure, or

776
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 7: almost I guess, rather like the book would come full circle.

777
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 4: Right.

778
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 7: It began in Bachmut in peacetime thirteen years ago, and

779
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 7: it ends in Bachmut as it's being ravaged by Russian

780
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 7: artillery and air strikes. And so, you know, for me,

781
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 7: that was at least a good way to sort of

782
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 7: come back to where it began and to really underscore

783
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 7: the extreme difference. You know, this this quiet eastern Ukrainian city,

784
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,800
Speaker 7: you know, near the Russian border that a lot of

785
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 7: people hadn't heard of. And I come in not knowing

786
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 7: much and sort of bumble around and find my way

787
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 7: and fast forward to you know now, and you return

788
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 7: to this place that's just being pummeled, you know, everything

789
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 7: in between is you know, my experiences and the stories

790
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:22,439
Speaker 7: of the Ukrainians I meet along the way.

791
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 4: You know, there's a lot of reportage and.

792
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 7: Dispatches, but you know some of it had been written

793
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 7: well before, however, drafted rather probably not in perfect pros,

794
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 7: but then you know, written through, and you know, certainly

795
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 7: all of the new stuff was in the latter part

796
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,919
Speaker 7: of the book, collected along the way over the past year.

797
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 7: That I guess is a general summary of it.

798
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 2: What is life like now?

799
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: I mean you were saying before that people have moved back.

800
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: Russians don't seem any less interested in destroying their way

801
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:52,720
Speaker 1: of life.

802
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 7: Oh, certainly not. No, I mean, you know, the Ukrainians

803
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 7: know that this is an existential fight. If you look

804
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 7: out the window in Kiev, there is a semblance of normalcy.

805
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 7: I was just telling you before we started that it's

806
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 7: rush hour traffic outside right now, and I'll bet you

807
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 7: if I go to the bar across the street that

808
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,319
Speaker 7: it'll be full of people and the restaurants and the

809
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 7: terraces right now, because it's a beautiful sunny summer day

810
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 7: here are going to be full of couples and people

811
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 7: just getting off of work. But certainly underneath the surface

812
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 7: is a lot of anger and sadness, grief. Just overnight

813
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 7: Russia launched yet another suicide drone attack on the capitol.

814
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 7: And so, you know, by day people are trying to

815
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 7: live their lives, go to work, do their shopping, pay

816
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 7: their bills. By night they're sleeping in the corridor of

817
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 7: their apartments or in the bomb shelter, trying to avoid

818
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 7: being on the other end of a cruise missile, you know.

819
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 7: And certainly on the battlefields of the east and the

820
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 7: south of the country, war is raging. Hundreds of people

821
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 7: are being wounded or killed every day on the front line,

822
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,919
Speaker 7: and so there's this real It seems especially jarring because

823
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 7: Kiev is very much a European city. You could step

824
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 7: into Prague or Warsaw or you know, Budapest, and then

825
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 7: you know, drop into Kiev and you'd have that same

826
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 7: that same vibe, except that then the air raid sirens

827
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 7: would sound and you'd be quickly reminded that this is

828
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 7: a country at war.

829
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's this sort of feeling that a lot of

830
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 1: reporting sort of it kind of makes an overture towards

831
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: but is not completely clear about which is it does

832
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 1: seem like there's a sense in which the Ukrainian fighters

833
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 1: fight in a way that is different than the Russian fighters.

834
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 2: Can you talk about that?

835
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I think what you're referring to is

836
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 7: probably this truth rather that you know, the Russian military

837
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 7: really is old school, like it fights in a very

838
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 7: old school way. To put it simply, there's still this

839
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 7: Soviet style hierarchy where commands you know, really has to

840
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 7: go from the field up through a chain and you know,

841
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 7: reach a senior commander and then come all the way

842
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 7: back down before any kind of action is or action

843
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,359
Speaker 7: is taken on the battlefield or decision is made. Right,

844
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:18,879
Speaker 7: and the Ukrainians, adversely, are now being Western trained, they

845
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 7: have a lot more leeway in terms of what they're

846
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 7: able to decide unilaterally on the battlefields. They don't necessarily

847
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 7: need to wait for commands from Kiev to make a move.

848
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 7: They can react more quickly. There's a lot more trust

849
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 7: in battlefield commanders. If you look at the militaries right,

850
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 7: Russia's was significantly larger and thought to be the second

851
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,360
Speaker 7: strongest in the world. They had a very specific military

852
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 7: doctrine that has I think remained more or less the

853
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 7: same for decades. The Ukrainians are forming theirs, and they're

854
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 7: forming theirs while fighting, so they're figuring out what has worked.

855
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 7: They have a lot more freedom to explore and try things.

856
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 7: They've had to try new things and they've had to

857
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 7: be scrappy because they are really outnumbered.

858
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 2: But it also seems like they are more committed to

859
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 2: the fight.

860
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 7: Well certainly, I mean, this is this is life and death,

861
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 7: this is an existential fight. So you know, they are

862
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 7: absolutely dedicated to winning this war. They know that if

863
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 7: they don't, this could be the end of their country,

864
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 7: the end of their culture, their language. You know, for

865
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 7: the Russians, a lot of these soldiers, and we know

866
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 7: from some of the interviews with captured soldiers and even

867
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 7: statements from soldiers that have been wounded and returned to

868
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 7: Russia that they really don't know what they're fighting for.

869
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 7: That Putin has given so many untruthful, bizarre, contradictory reasons

870
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 7: for launching this war, that they really don't know what

871
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 7: they are fighting for. They're essentially, you know, just kind

872
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 7: of operating like a machine out there. You know, somebody

873
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:51,840
Speaker 7: is giving an order and they're doing what they're told.

874
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 7: The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and they know

875
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 7: that if they stop fighting that this could be the

876
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 7: very end of Ukraine.

877
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: It's so interesting talked to us a little bit about

878
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: what happened with the Wagner group and how that has

879
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 1: affected the war.

880
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, you know, you have Guinea Progosion, the

881
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 7: leader of Wagner, who was famously known as Putin's chef

882
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 7: because he was a caterer at one point.

883
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 2: Right, didn't you sell hot dogs?

884
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 7: Yeah? Yeah, that's right. You know, he was a hot

885
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 7: dog vendor who worked his way up after a stint

886
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 7: in Russian prison to then serve right, well, the great

887
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 7: Russian dream, right, and so now he's an extremely wealthy businessman.

888
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 2: And warlord, yes who among us.

889
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 7: Right, whose mercenary group was filled with convicts because Russia

890
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 7: was losing so many soldiers in the first several months

891
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 7: of blood Putin's full skill invasion last year that he

892
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 7: went ahead and approved, you have Guinea Progosion to go

893
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 7: recruiting at Russian prisons for prospective fighters, and those people

894
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 7: who raised their hand and volunteered would see their sentences

895
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 7: commuted for six months of fighting if they lived.

896
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 2: So these are not perhaps not great guys.

897
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 7: Right, Ukraine is fighting with some of its very best people.

898
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 7: Russia is throwing a lot of its worst at the fight.

899
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 2: But more likely maybe to do war crimes, etc.

900
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 7: Yes, yes, no, Vagner is known for its brutality. I mean,

901
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 7: these are guys that have been filmed beheading Ukrainian prisoners

902
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 7: of war, astrating Ukrainian prisoners of war. It's really really

903
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 7: ruesome stuff like these are the worst of the worst people.

904
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 7: But it's interesting, you know, you asked how it affects

905
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 7: the fight Wagner's fighters still because it's not only these convicts,

906
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 7: it's actually, you know, some well trained and battle hardened

907
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 7: fighters who fought in Ukraine, you know, back in the

908
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 7: day in twenty fourteen, also in other wars in Syria

909
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 7: in particular, they have been the only real military unit

910
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 7: that has had success on the battlefield in terms of

911
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 7: gaining some territory. Now, but maybe an asterisk next to

912
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 7: that word success just because you know, they were They

913
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 7: led the charge around the city at Bakmut in the

914
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 7: battle there and managed to take Backmut, but it took

915
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 7: months and months and months of you know, heavy artillery

916
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 7: pounding the city, air support and them moving essentially block

917
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 7: by block for ten months before they took the city.

918
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 7: But the rush the regular Russian military hasn't had a

919
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:23,400
Speaker 7: success on the battlefield since the first days of the invasion,

920
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 7: when they swept through the northern part of the country

921
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 7: through Tchernobyl, Tourkiev in the south and occupied those first

922
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 7: areas saw which they know they no longer occupied.

923
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 4: So you know, there is this question of whether or.

924
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 7: Not Russian military at some point, if it attempts to

925
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 7: again go on the defensive, is going to be able

926
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 7: to capture any more ground, or if really they're you know,

927
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,919
Speaker 7: now digging in and trying to settle with what they've got,

928
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 7: Because Wagner really was the only group in the last

929
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 7: many many months.

930
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess.

931
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 7: Arguably a year probably a year that had any real

932
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:00,800
Speaker 7: success in advantage on the battlefield.

933
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 2: Do we have a sense of what happened to Wagner.

934
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, a little bit. It's a bit of a confusing situation.

935
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 7: There was this failed mutiny that you have Guinea progosion

936
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 7: led on the Kremlin, and then you know, we saw

937
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 7: this sort of like slow mark and followed it all

938
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:21,399
Speaker 7: in real time on Russian military bloggers telegram channels where

939
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 7: apparently twenty thousand or so Wagner troops were rushing up

940
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 7: this highway to Moscow and within even just a couple

941
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,879
Speaker 7: of hours from from the Kremlin before calling it off

942
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 7: in a deal apparently that broker to buy the Belarusian

943
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:38,439
Speaker 7: leader Alexander Lukashenko. If you call this in the past

944
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:42,760
Speaker 7: several days that Putin had called progosion and about thirty

945
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 7: Wagner commanders into the Kremlin to have a chat, and

946
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 7: we haven't seen Progosion since then. You know, it does

947
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 7: seem like Putin took a serious hit to his reputation

948
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:56,760
Speaker 7: as a strong man and maybe now trying to show

949
00:49:56,800 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 7: that he, you know, still has control over the securities

950
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 7: situation in this country and and the political situation certainly.

951
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 7: But Vagner was forced to hand in a lot of

952
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 7: its weaponry. It was told that it needs to relocate

953
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 7: to Belarus, that progos It himself also needs to relocate.

954
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 7: But he's shown up in Saint Petersburg and then in

955
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 7: the Kremlin, as I mentioned, So it's a bit of

956
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 7: a confusing situation. I would say there's a big question

957
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 7: mark over Wagner right now, whether or not they have

958
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 7: completely disbanded and won't be involved in the fight in Ukraine,

959
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 7: or you know, if they're still going to be operating

960
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 7: in Africa, where they always or where they also have

961
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 7: a large footprint.

962
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 2: So interesting. Thank you so much for coming on. I

963
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 2: hope you'll come back.

964
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 4: Of course, thank you for having me.

965
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 3: No moment, Jesse Cannon Mai John Fast.

966
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 4: It's going to be really funny to watch all those

967
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 4: rich tech pro us who give arf K Junior all

968
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 4: that money have to now answer for his anti Semitism.

969
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:56,399
Speaker 3: What do you see it in here?

970
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: As a Jew myself, I need to say, as my

971
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: grandfather always said, they always come back to picking on

972
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 1: the Jews, but really not funny.

973
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 2: RFK finally said the choiet part.

974
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 1: I mean he has said the choir part out a lot,

975
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: a lot, but he recently said that COVID was designed

976
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 1: not to hurt Jewish people and Chinese people as badly

977
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: as it hurts everyone else.

978
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: That there is zero evidence to support this.

979
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 1: It is just completely silly ranting by a person who

980
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: really really sucks.

981
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 2: And for that OURFK Junior is our moment of Fackeray.

982
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

983
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to hear the best minds

984
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

985
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

986
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.