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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you Welcome to the Monday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Dili Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Peralta. We are here on bettingpros dot com. We

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Speaker 1: are always being brought to you by BETMGM and you

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Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt if

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Speaker 1: you would choose to do so. All Right, so last

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Speaker 1: week not so great, right, I do Sunday to Saturday.

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Speaker 1: So since football is almost over, I thought we'd get

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Speaker 1: back into that routine where I'll give you guys my

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Speaker 1: record for the week and we'll go week by week.

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Speaker 1: So we've kind of gotten out of that because it's

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Speaker 1: sort of a chaos. If you guys listened to the

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Speaker 1: Dilly Juice back when it began, you know, we talked

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Speaker 1: about weeks. We broke things down over the course of

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Speaker 1: an entire week. You know, you can have a bad day,

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Speaker 1: but let's not have a bad week. And if you

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Speaker 1: have a bad week, let's not have a bad month.

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Speaker 1: I've had a bad month. There's no ifsand butts around it.

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Speaker 1: There's no way around it. My picks in the n

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Speaker 1: in the NFL have been horrific. And I'm telling you

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Speaker 1: right now for the Super Bowl. I'm gonna enjoy the game.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be heavy on prop bets, but I may

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Speaker 1: not even get involved with the side or the total

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Speaker 1: or I don't know, because look, yesterday I knew that

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Speaker 1: one of the plus nines weren't going to hit. My

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Speaker 1: thought was the Bills would keep the game close. Didn't happen.

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Speaker 1: My thought was the Packers could blow out the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: Didn't happen. Bucks win. Congrats to Tom Brady. I am

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Speaker 1: pulling for the Buccaneers. I want them to win. I

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Speaker 1: am all in on the Bucks train here. I want

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Speaker 1: Brady to get number seven. I've been betting against Brady.

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Speaker 1: It felt weird to bet against Brady and pull against

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Speaker 1: Brady in back to back weeks, and I've learned better now.

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Speaker 1: No longer not doing it. Watch him lose. But I'm

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Speaker 1: going to bet or at least pull, for Brady and

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Speaker 1: the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl in two weeks.

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Speaker 1: We have a long way to go before we get there.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into the picks today, well, I was

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Speaker 1: down point seven units last week. We started off yesterday.

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Speaker 1: We haven't calculated it all up yet, but it looks

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Speaker 1: like I'm down a little less than about two units

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Speaker 1: yesterday because the parult two team teaser ends at fifteen

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Speaker 1: to ten. We get the Bills wrong, we got the

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Speaker 1: total teasing the total from the Bucks and the Packers

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Speaker 1: down it hit anyway, the over was the play in

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Speaker 1: that game. And then you know, I got cute and

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Speaker 1: I gave the Bills nine points and they could have

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Speaker 1: maybe possibly, but they lost by fourteen. Josh Allen went

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Speaker 1: back to being Josh Allen. He wasn't ready for the moment.

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Speaker 1: The team wasn't ready for the play of the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: that couldn't slow them down. And it was just for

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Speaker 1: the first time in weeks, the Chiefs, Chiefs finally go

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Speaker 1: out there and boat race somebody and they killed the Bills.

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Speaker 1: So Chiefs and the Bucks coming up in Tampa for

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Tom Brady in number ten, and if

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Speaker 1: there was any debate as to who the greatest quarterback

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Speaker 1: of all time is, please stop it. Aaron Rodgers versus

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Speaker 1: Tom please stop it. Anyone else, Joe Montana versus Tom Brady,

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Speaker 1: please stop it. It's over. It's done. There's no more conversation,

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Speaker 1: there's no more questions, there's no more debates, no more

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Speaker 1: wondering who's the best Brady is the best quarterback who

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Speaker 1: ever play the game? Done? That's it, It's over, close

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Speaker 1: the book, move on. Okay, but this is going to

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Speaker 1: be a fun week, fun two weeks of hype and

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Speaker 1: leaving up to it. And you know, you guys who

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Speaker 1: have heard this podcast for a long time. I am

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Speaker 1: nauseated by the dynasty talk with the Chiefs, and I

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Speaker 1: love that it's Brady having a chance to stop it.

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Speaker 1: So all aboard the bucks trained for me. I'm you know,

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Speaker 1: raw ra Go Tampa. So anyways, I thought today might

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Speaker 1: be a good opportunity to talk about a couple of

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Speaker 1: things before I give you the plays about bank roll management,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of people have brought up these questions

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Speaker 1: to me over the last couple of weeks about when

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Speaker 1: do I reassess my one unit. I had one person

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Speaker 1: come to me and ask me and say, hey, Matt,

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Speaker 1: look at I started off with one thousand dollars and

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Speaker 1: now I am up to five thousand dollars. I had

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Speaker 1: my one unit, my five percent, my one unit, which

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Speaker 1: would be fifty bucks. I've been playing fifty buck place,

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Speaker 1: and now I'm up to five thousand, dollars. He hit

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Speaker 1: a couple really big. He said, he hit one big

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Speaker 1: fifty buck long shot. They're brought in like two grand

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Speaker 1: and so that's why his bank roll grew so much.

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Speaker 1: But he said, what should I do? And I told

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Speaker 1: him this, and I thought it would make a good

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Speaker 1: time for the podcast here to bring this up. So

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Speaker 1: what I do at the end of every football season,

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Speaker 1: and really we're at the end now. I never go

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Speaker 1: crazy in the Super Bowl. I do a lot of

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Speaker 1: dumb things. I bet the coin flip and I bet

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Speaker 1: you know, you know how long the anthem will go.

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Speaker 1: I bet all the dumb things everybody bets. I'll never

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Speaker 1: give that out for like an official play, but I

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Speaker 1: do what everybody else does. It's the super Bowl. But

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Speaker 1: so really, in a lot of ways, the year is

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Speaker 1: over now. Once we get to the Super Bowl, the

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Speaker 1: year is over. So I take a look back and

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Speaker 1: I will be doing a lot of research. I'll be

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Speaker 1: breaking down the regular season and the postseason. I will

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Speaker 1: be breaking down my process in the regular season where

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Speaker 1: I was having in depth conversations with multiple people leading

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Speaker 1: up to every game up to every weekend, and I

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Speaker 1: did not do that in the postseason. Okay, if you

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Speaker 1: want to know what the biggest change was, I started

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Speaker 1: thinking about this tonight or last night time of taping

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Speaker 1: us tonight, and I started to think about, like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: why why have I struggled so mightily when I was

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Speaker 1: up about about ten units in the regular season and

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Speaker 1: now I'm down quite a bit here in the playoffs. Well, One,

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Speaker 1: the lines get much sharper. Okay. Two, it's difficult to

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Speaker 1: determine what's going to happen in these games because you know,

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Speaker 1: not oftentimes the numbers from the regular season translate over

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Speaker 1: to the postseason. But also my process of going through

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Speaker 1: all the picks and plays like I did every week

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Speaker 1: did not continue. It was different. It was a different time.

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Speaker 1: So like Dan Harris and I weren't making picks for

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Speaker 1: our DraftKings team, I wasn't making picks in the circa

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Speaker 1: I was and making picks in the West Gate. I

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Speaker 1: didn't have that information to look at where the public

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Speaker 1: was for the Westgate contest, or how many games to

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Speaker 1: sift through, because there are you know, in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: you're given a finite number of games. In the regular season,

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Speaker 1: I've got the whole schedule to pick from. I don't

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Speaker 1: have to play these games in the postseason, but you

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Speaker 1: have to play the postseason games. So next year, what

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Speaker 1: I have learned is one, maybe not play games in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. Okay, maybe pull back a bit. Maybe not

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Speaker 1: unless I feel really comfortable on a side, don't get involved.

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Speaker 1: Watch out for the teasers, because teasers weren't They're okay,

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Speaker 1: but they weren't great in the postseason. Be careful on those.

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Speaker 1: So these are all the things that I do at

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Speaker 1: the end of the football year, and I'll continue to

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Speaker 1: do so when I haven't done it yet. So if

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Speaker 1: you haven't been keeping track of your bets, it's a

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Speaker 1: good idea to kind of go back and realize and

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Speaker 1: watch and kind of study what you did well and

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Speaker 1: what you didn't do well, and then take a look

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Speaker 1: at your bankroll and if you are up. This guy's

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Speaker 1: up to five thousand dollars, so okay, he's five to

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Speaker 1: one up. You can do that if you want to

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Speaker 1: go up to two hundred and fifty dollars to be

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Speaker 1: your one unit, if you want that to happen. Now,

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying you have to do what makes you comfortable.

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Speaker 1: A lot of times when you start to raise the

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Speaker 1: stakes in which you gamble with. You get nervous, and

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Speaker 1: I've had this happen to me where I've increased my

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Speaker 1: own one units, and sometimes I'm gun shy. Sometimes I'm like, man,

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Speaker 1: I like that play, but do I want to put

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Speaker 1: that in play? And if you want to, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's a lot of money to put in play. On

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Speaker 1: that side, sometimes it's good. Sometimes it makes you more conservative.

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Speaker 1: Other times you get gun shy and you end up

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Speaker 1: missing out on bets you had right because you were

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Speaker 1: nervous about how much money you were going to put

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Speaker 1: into play. So that's why it's five percent. But don't

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Speaker 1: go crazy on that, like, don't hold that to like

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Speaker 1: a you know, it's not a must. There's not a

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Speaker 1: law here when your one unit can be five percent

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Speaker 1: or makes you comfortable, all right, So if fifty bucks,

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Speaker 1: if you have a five thousand dollars bank roll now

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Speaker 1: and fifty bucks makes you comfortable, then that's great. Don't

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Speaker 1: worry about that. That's fine, there's no worries. I don't

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Speaker 1: have a problem with you saying that I'm gonna keep

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Speaker 1: it at fifty bucks. So you know, for me, I

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Speaker 1: had a very good end of the football season. I

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Speaker 1: was up about eleven units to start twenty twenty. I

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Speaker 1: have given a lot of it back. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: change because I'm pretty much you know, I'm up, but

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Speaker 1: I'm not up to the point where I would adjust

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Speaker 1: my one unit. My one unit is gonna stay at

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Speaker 1: the same monetary value that it was in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: And after we get through the summer and we head

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Speaker 1: towards football season, that's the second time I reassess. Okay,

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Speaker 1: right before the start of the college in pro season,

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Speaker 1: so basically right around the week Labor Day is the

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Speaker 1: other time I'll just take a look at it and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's see where a bank roll is, and am I

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Speaker 1: up and my down? Because if you go down, you

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Speaker 1: should change as well. Right again, And if you're at

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Speaker 1: one thousand dollars and now you're up to five thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars and you're you know, say you've given one thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars back by betting two fifty, well, there's no reason

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Speaker 1: why you shouldn't pull back. And there's no reason why

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Speaker 1: if you're down to four thousand dollars, why you shouldn't

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Speaker 1: now be giving doing two thousand dollars per one unit,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So it's an ebb and

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Speaker 1: flow thing and it's ever changing, and it's completely your business.

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Speaker 1: It's if anybody ever asks you how much money you bet,

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Speaker 1: tell them to mind their own business. Okay, they have

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Speaker 1: no right to know. It's a rude question, to be

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Speaker 1: quite honest. They have no right to ask you. You

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Speaker 1: tell them what you wagered. If they want to fail,

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Speaker 1: I want to fade or follow up to them. But

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Speaker 1: you know what your bankroll is. You know what your

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Speaker 1: money is. So as we get to the end, and

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Speaker 1: if you don't do this right now, right now is

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Speaker 1: a perfect time to start a process of actually tracking

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Speaker 1: what you bet, when you bet, what you bet, how

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Speaker 1: often you wager, what sports you're wagering on, in game wagering,

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Speaker 1: all that stuff, but more detailed the record, the better.

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Speaker 1: And to be honest, I need to do more because

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris and the guys at Betting Pros track my

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Speaker 1: official place. But I've gotten a little bit chaotic and

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Speaker 1: crazy lately within game wagering, and I'm not doing as

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Speaker 1: good of a job as I should be doing when

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Speaker 1: it comes to records. So now I've got more time.

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Speaker 1: Things are slowing down a bit. This is the off season.

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Speaker 1: My wife calls it. Okay, I'm about to go into

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Speaker 1: the off season for me, even though I'm still betting

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Speaker 1: every day the football schedule. I'm around on Saturdays, I'm

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Speaker 1: around on Sundays. So anyways, sorry to go on a

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Speaker 1: rant there, but that's kind of what I wanted to

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Speaker 1: talk about that here today because I think it was important.

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Speaker 1: It's a good time. It's a good reminder to say, hey,

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Speaker 1: this is the time to start a process about tracking

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Speaker 1: your bets and your bankroll management into twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: As we get further, as we get going here with basketball,

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Speaker 1: college basketball, the NBA whatnot, and then into golf and etcetera.

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Speaker 1: So you guys know about this offer for the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be great. You're gonna have a one

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Speaker 1: dollar money line Super Bowl wager. I'm sure there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be more here coming up very shortly. I'm sure BETMGM

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Speaker 1: will have even more cool stuff for you guys coming

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Speaker 1: up here. But watch for the BETMGM offers. And we

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Speaker 1: are still giving away at the end of the month,

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Speaker 1: the autographed jersey for one mister Amari Cooper. You're gonna

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Speaker 1: have that. Okay, you're gonna have that available. If you

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Speaker 1: haven't left a review yet on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher,

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Speaker 1: please do so. Go to bettingcros dot com slash juice,

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Speaker 1: drop in your review, fill up the form and you're

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Speaker 1: entered in. We'll pull that name coming up at the

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Speaker 1: end of the month. All right, I've got two plays

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Speaker 1: in the NBA, sorry, two plays in college basketball, one

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Speaker 1: play in the NBA, and one play in the NHL.

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Speaker 1: Here going a half unit for all four of these plays.

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Speaker 1: This is called going back to the well Monday bets

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Speaker 1: that have cash in the past that maybe we did

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Speaker 1: not play or we did play the last time the

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Speaker 1: games were being played and we made some money on it.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with Arizona State. In Arizona, they play

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Speaker 1: tonight in college basketball. Well second game of this two

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Speaker 1: game sets. So looking at Arizona State, three of the

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Speaker 1: last four games for Arizona State, the over has hit,

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Speaker 1: including the last time they played against Arizona where the

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Speaker 1: total was one fifty three and a half and it

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Speaker 1: went over by twelve and a half points. Game before that,

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Speaker 1: against Oregon State, it went over by ten and a

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Speaker 1: half points for them. Arizona well, last time against Arizona

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Speaker 1: State one fifty three and a half, it went over

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Speaker 1: by twelve and a half. But before that the total

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Speaker 1: went over by twenty one and a half, twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: two and thirty one points. They aren't just going past

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Speaker 1: the total, they are blowing past the total. It's them scoring.

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Speaker 1: They scored eighty four, ninety eight, seventy six, seventy three,

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Speaker 1: eighty six and eighty, so they're scoring, but they're also

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Speaker 1: giving up eighty two, sixty four, eighty one, eighty seven,

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00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:57,520
Speaker 1: eighty two. They're giving up a ton of points. So

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Speaker 1: Arizona scores and run and gives up a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of points coming back. So the first game it was

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Speaker 1: one fifty three and a half, it went over by

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half points, and the total went up

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Speaker 1: by two points. Okay, again, this is just one of

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Speaker 1: those things where you go back and you fire on it,

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Speaker 1: because unless both teams go completely ice cold, you would

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Speaker 1: expect the game to go in some similar fashion. So

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Speaker 1: half a unit Arizona State, Arizona over one fifty five

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Speaker 1: and a half for a half a unit at minus

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Speaker 1: one ten second game in college basketball, this number confuses

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Speaker 1: me and it's rising, So I hope you guys can

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Speaker 1: get it where I got it. I got it at

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Speaker 1: bet mgm Utah State on the road at UNLV minus

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Speaker 1: five and a half. UNLV is gonna have a really

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Speaker 1: tough time scoring tonight. So you and v's at home.

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Speaker 1: In the first game of these double headers in the

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Speaker 1: Mountain West Conference, it goes pretty much according to plan.

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Speaker 1: Game two gets all funky, all right. The second game

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Speaker 1: is a wild rollercoaster. The first game, though, you can

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Speaker 1: kind of bank on the better team to win the

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00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,280
Speaker 1: game and to do what they're supposed to do. So

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Speaker 1: Utah State is scoring seventy four point nine points per game,

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Speaker 1: that's eightieth in the country. However, defensively, they're giving up

283
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Speaker 1: sixty point nine points per game that is twelfth best

284
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Speaker 1: in the country. Their defense is outstanding. UNLV is only

285
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 1: scoring sixty nine point four points per game, and they're

286
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 1: giving up seventy one point nine points per game. UNV

287
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 1: is in the two hundreds for points allowed. They have

288
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 1: a negative scoring margin. They are not shooting the basketball

289
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,080
Speaker 1: well for a team that's supposed to be relying on

290
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 1: the three. They're hitting just thirty three point seven percent

291
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 1: of their threes. That's one hundred and sixty third in

292
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Speaker 1: the country. Okay, that is not good when you're going

293
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,160
Speaker 1: up against a team that defensively is very, very solid,

294
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 1: in particular in the paint because of their size. Utah

295
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,920
Speaker 1: State on gives up forty two point seven points for

296
00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:07,000
Speaker 1: forty two point seven percent shooting on two point field goals.

297
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Speaker 1: That is twelfth best in the entire country. Opposing shooting

298
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 1: percentage is thirty eight point six That also is twelfth

299
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Speaker 1: best in the entire country. For a team in UNLV

300
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Speaker 1: which has really really struggled at times to score the basketball.

301
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Speaker 1: This is a really bad matchup in my mind. Okay,

302
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 1: They've taken on a couple of two cupcakes, two NAIA schools,

303
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Speaker 1: and they've killed them. And sure they beat up on

304
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Speaker 1: New Mexico, and New Mexico's really really bad. But they

305
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 1: played against Coloro State on the road. They lost both games.

306
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 1: They played hard, they lost by three in both those games.

307
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Speaker 1: And you could say, well, okay, but look at Utah State.

308
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 1: Utah State destroyed Coloroo State. Utah State beat Coloro State

309
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Speaker 1: by nineteen in their first game. They lost the second game.

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Speaker 1: Mind you, Okay, again, that second game of these two

311
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 1: game sets are a little funky. But in the first

312
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Speaker 1: game against Carlo State they won by nineteen. In the

313
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Speaker 1: first game against San Diego State, they won by twelve.

314
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Speaker 1: First game against New Mexico they won by thirty two.

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00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,840
Speaker 1: First game against Air Force they won by thirty five.

316
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,840
Speaker 1: First game against San Jose State they won by forty five.

317
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Speaker 1: Since the trend here, I think UNLV's in real trouble

318
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Speaker 1: tonight against UTAs State. This is one of the better

319
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Speaker 1: teams in the Mountain West Conference. I know the Rebels

320
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,880
Speaker 1: are at home, but you don't have any fans there

321
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,880
Speaker 1: to speak of. And the total being won thirty seven

322
00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,800
Speaker 1: is entirely because of UNLV's inability to score. I can't

323
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 1: bet it, but I probably will be looking hard at

324
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: the UNLV team total. It's not out yet, but UNV

325
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 1: team total. Bet the under on the UNV team. So

326
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 1: what if they score fifty points tonight, I'll be surprised.

327
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:46,360
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're going to be able to

328
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 1: hang with Utah State unless they're bombing from three and

329
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:54,680
Speaker 1: hitting everything. Un V just hasn't impressed me offensively, and sure,

330
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 1: I mean that they've had some good games. The first

331
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 1: game against New Mexico was very impressive. But you know,

332
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 1: that's what the post players and against Utah State, you're

333
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 1: not going to get easy post scores, and that's how

334
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: they killed New Mexico. And you tout State's got some

335
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 1: of the best as we talked about two point defense

336
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 1: in the country, Like it's really hard to get the

337
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 1: ball in the paint because of the size of Utah State.

338
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 1: So un LV in deep trouble here. Utah State mis

339
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,199
Speaker 1: five and a half, that number is gonna climb. I

340
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 1: bet it closes at like seven, seven and a half

341
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 1: somewhere in there. But UTUS State miss five and a

342
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:28,040
Speaker 1: half on the road at UNLV for a half a unit. Okay,

343
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:32,320
Speaker 1: we're going to the NBA. One play for the NBA,

344
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 1: and it's right back to what we're talking about in

345
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 1: terms of going back to the well. So the Miami

346
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:42,199
Speaker 1: Heat are taking on the Brooklyn Nets first game. Oh my,

347
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:48,640
Speaker 1: these are nuts numbers. So the last time the Brooklyn

348
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,200
Speaker 1: Nets did not have a game go over their projected

349
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 1: total was on New Year's Day back on the first

350
00:17:56,320 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 1: of the year against Atlanta, where the underwent way under.

351
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 1: They only scored ninety six points in every game since then,

352
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 1: the over has hit. Now get this run for the

353
00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets over by three and a half, one and

354
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 1: a half, nine, six and a half, twenty and a half,

355
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,879
Speaker 1: six and a half, eight eleven, eight and a half,

356
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 1: and the last three games the total has gone over

357
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,439
Speaker 1: fifty six points, fourteen and a half points and twenty

358
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 1: points not just over, way over, and the totals were

359
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 1: too twenty six, two, twenty three and a half and

360
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 1: two thirty two. The total tonight is two thirty five.

361
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 1: I just again, I'm blindly betting this. This could be

362
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 1: a stupid move. The professionals probably will give you guys

363
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,399
Speaker 1: a better number, because I bet the pros are gonna

364
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 1: come in here on the under like they did the

365
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 1: last game. The number opened up a two thirty five.

366
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 1: It was bet down to two thirty two because the

367
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 1: pros are gonna bet this thinking it's going to snop.

368
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: It's gonna stop. This is twelve consecutive games the over

369
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 1: has hit for the Brooklyn Nets twelve straight. Should I

370
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 1: fade this? Should? Maybe you want to fade it, probably,

371
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 1: but I don't think you can get off this train

372
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 1: until it bucks us off. This burned me over the

373
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,199
Speaker 1: weekend Okay, doing this exact same thing with Alabama and

374
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,880
Speaker 1: with the Creighton Blue Jays first half over on Saturday,

375
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,919
Speaker 1: I went zero in two doing this exact thing. But

376
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 1: I don't think Brooklyn plays any defense. And as long

377
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 1: as the shots fall from Miami and they keep the

378
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,239
Speaker 1: game somewhat close. I mean, Miami scored one hundred and

379
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:33,640
Speaker 1: twenty four points in their last game. Okay, one hundred

380
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,160
Speaker 1: and twenty four points. Now against Toronto they scored eighty

381
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 1: one and against Run. The game before that they scored

382
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 1: the scored one hundred and two, which isn't great, but

383
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: one hundred and eleven. Sorry, they be one hundred and eleven,

384
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: but in games before that, one hundred and thirteen, one

385
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 1: hundred and eight, one hundred and thirty four. You know,

386
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 1: they were on an over streak as well. Miami offensively

387
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: is playing pretty well. One unit going with the over

388
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 1: half a unit, sorry, not one in a half a unit.

389
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 1: We're going over to thirty five. I've Miami and the

390
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 1: Brooklyn nets. And then there's one thing I want to

391
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:08,360
Speaker 1: point out to you guys. James Harden. His single assists

392
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 1: prop at FanDuel right now is nine and a half.

393
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 1: Nine and a half and it's hardened assists at FanDuel

394
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 1: nine and a half and it's minus one twenty for

395
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 1: nine and a half on the over. The under is

396
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: even money, but nine and a half assists for James

397
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 1: Harden minus one twenty. James Harden his last five games

398
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 1: has had fourteen, twelve, twelve, eleven and eleven assists. Okay,

399
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: he's been on fire. He's played forty minutes, forty one minutes,

400
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 1: fifty one minutes, thirty seven minutes, and thirty eight minutes.

401
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 1: If he plays thirty plus minutes he will have ten assists.

402
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 1: So I think the over nine and a half at

403
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 1: minus one twenty not a bad way of playing that

404
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: game either. If you want some extra action going into

405
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 1: Maybe you don't like the over, just want to play

406
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 1: the James Harden. I can't bet that here in Vegas.

407
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 1: I don't have FanDuel. Not a bad place to go

408
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 1: there with James Harden over assists at nine and a

409
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: half at minus one twenty. And then finally, one hockey

410
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: play tell you about Ottawa and Vancouver. It's the only

411
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 1: game on the docket here tonight. In the NHL. The

412
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 1: total for goals is set at six and I am

413
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 1: going to take auto. I'm taking over Senators in the Canucks.

414
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 1: We're going over six goals. Shop around if you can

415
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 1: to find this. This is an important number. If you

416
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 1: can find six, find six, six and a half, okay,

417
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 1: but find six. I know some books have already kind

418
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 1: of swung things around here. This is going to be

419
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: a high scoring hockey game and first period over. If

420
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: you want to jump on that, maybe you want to

421
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: play it that way. I wouldn't say that's probably not

422
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 1: a bad idea to jump on that. If if that's

423
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 1: the side you want to go on, I think we're

424
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,399
Speaker 1: gonna see goals. And there's a bunch of reasons why.

425
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 1: William Hill, by the way, this is where I found this.

426
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 1: William Hill's at six points. Bets at six right now

427
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 1: fox bet at the time it tapes at five and

428
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 1: a half, which as a number I absolutely love. I

429
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 1: can't get access to a Fox bet. But over five

430
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 1: and a half goals for Senators in the Canucks. The

431
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: Senators are really bad, like really bad. They give up

432
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: a whole lot of points. They don't score a lot though,

433
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: but against the Canucks, the Canucks have given up a

434
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 1: monster number of goals so far here, they're one of

435
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: the worst defensive teams in the entire NHL to start,

436
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 1: but their power play is the best in the NHL.

437
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: They've got thirteen power play goals so far. That's number one.

438
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: So if the Senators tend to if they wind up giving,

439
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 1: you know, giving a lot of scoring opportunities, I think

440
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: Vancouver could get a bunch of goals. And then if

441
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 1: this defense continues to be awful, Vancouver has given up

442
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 1: a league high thirty three goals so far, that is

443
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 1: ten worse than any other team in the league. If

444
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: that continues, Ottawa scores three, Vancouver scores four, and we're

445
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 1: home there with seven goals. Maybe it's a five to

446
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 1: two type of game or a six to three type

447
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: of game. I don't see any way how to play

448
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 1: this beyond playing just an over six goals here, Vancouver

449
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: auto well over six for a half of units, So

450
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 1: two units in play here for us on a Monday,

451
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: we are going over Arizona State Arizona one fifty five

452
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: and a half, Utah State laying five and a half

453
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 1: on the road at UNLV nets in Miami over twenty

454
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: two thirty five for a half a unit that James

455
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 1: Harden assists over nine and a half maybe as well,

456
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 1: and then Ottawa Vancouver over six goals coming up here

457
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 1: for that one. You may have to pay a little

458
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: extra juice on that. I mean I paid Mins one

459
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 1: twenty five on it, but you may pay a little

460
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 1: extra juice for it, but it's worth it. Min's one

461
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: twenty five is not bad. Those are the place. My

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00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 1: name is Matt Perrault. Sorry I went a little long today.

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00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: Back tomorrow morning for another edition of the Deal Juice

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00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 1: podcast right here on bettingpros dot Com brought you If

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00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 1: I Bet, I'MGM