Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea and
Speaker 1: to go back to the heart and soul of what
Speaker 1: we've done for over two decades. It's really important in
Speaker 1: the racket to keep track of how and where people
Speaker 1: came from. Kimbl Harvey is at Duke University. He's really exquisite.
Speaker 1: His lead academics years ago out of the Canadian schools,
Speaker 1: the University of York and others, was on consumer preference,
Speaker 1: what consumers do and how they act, but far more important,
Speaker 1: and he's too modest of a guy to ever mention it.
Speaker 1: What do you do in your doctoral dissertation when three
Speaker 1: of the five professors six professors, when three of them
Speaker 1: our future Nobel Prize winners. I don't know how many
Speaker 1: people within the Bloomberg surveillance world can say that. To
Speaker 1: survive a doctoral dissertation with Fama, Merton, and Hanson at
Speaker 1: Chicago is just absolutely definitive. Campbell Harvey on the American consumer.
Speaker 2: Most of our models and economics have what's called a
Speaker 2: representative consumer, which is code for everybody's the same, and
Speaker 2: that's just not the case anymore. So we're a very
Speaker 2: heterogeneous and I've argued that that part of kind of
Speaker 2: the decreasing volatility of the business cycles. So our business
Speaker 2: cycles are way milder than in the past, even considering
Speaker 2: the global financial crisis and COVID, So they're less frequent
Speaker 2: and they're milder. And this is because there are a
Speaker 2: couple of classes consumers at least, and there's one class
Speaker 2: that is very well off and they just don't respond.
Speaker 2: So inflation goes up with no big deal to them.
Speaker 1: They just buy Kim Harvey. And that definitive argument there
Speaker 1: between Campbell Harvey of Duke University and the late Saint
Speaker 1: Alan Meltzer Carnegie Mellon is extraordinary. Should we aggregate our
Speaker 1: data or his America becomes so unique under consumption, even investment,
Speaker 1: even government, and of course our export dynamics with all
Speaker 1: the tariffs that are going on. Have we become two America?
Speaker 1: Is just a wonderful moment there with the professor of
Speaker 1: Duke University. What an honor today, given all that's going on,
Speaker 1: to speak to Edward Morse in his eighties. He's got
Speaker 1: the interior energy of a thirty five year old, absolutely
Speaker 1: unreal conversation with Edward Morris iconic at City Group all
Speaker 1: of his academics, including back to Princeton fifty years ago,
Speaker 1: was on fire today and in some support of Trump
Speaker 1: energy policy. Here is Edward Morris of Hartree on John Carrey.
Speaker 3: I'm critical of one thing that I think looms very large,
Speaker 3: and John Carey's name is associated with it. When we
Speaker 3: had the push for a clean energy world and the
Speaker 3: US was in a leadership position on it, we also
Speaker 3: had the view official view that we not only want
Speaker 3: to get rid of oil and the emissions from burning
Speaker 3: oil as a transport fuel, but we have the view
Speaker 3: that we should get rid of natural gas as a
Speaker 3: fossil fuel, and that really set us back because fossil fuels,
Speaker 3: we can't get to net zero without actually using a
Speaker 3: lot of natural gas. We have to use it carefully,
Speaker 3: we have to make sure that methane emissions are controlled.
Speaker 3: But not allowing pipelines to be built for natural gas,
Speaker 3: not pushing for natural gas in the overall displacement of
Speaker 3: oil and discouraging oil's use was a mistake in my
Speaker 3: mind and set us back on the road to a
Speaker 3: cleaner world. And when we come to natural gas, by
Speaker 3: the way, the US is the largest producer in the
Speaker 3: world we have the largest exporter in the world, both
Speaker 3: of oil and natural gas, and if you look at
Speaker 3: the next five years, the US is going to keep
Speaker 3: that up and remain the largest exporter with the largest
Speaker 3: growth fifty percent of the growth of gas utilization and production,
Speaker 3: but we're going to be exporting most of it is
Speaker 3: coming from the US. It's a very important tool for
Speaker 3: economics and for the energy transition.
Speaker 1: Edward Morse of heartree with US today. An eventful week
Speaker 1: with a FED meeting on Wednesday. Of course, on podcasts
Speaker 1: out of Apple podcasts, Spotify, huge worldwide response to Spotify podcast.
Speaker 1: Thank you for that, and we are at YouTube podcasts.
Speaker 1: This is a single best I get
Speaker 3: H