1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:22,356 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 2 00:00:22,396 --> 00:00:25,396 Speaker 1: where we explored the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:25,796 --> 00:00:30,236 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. Welcome to this week's episode, where we 4 00:00:30,276 --> 00:00:33,556 Speaker 1: will discuss Saudi Arabia, one of the most complicated and 5 00:00:33,716 --> 00:00:37,396 Speaker 1: most interesting places in the entire world, also one of 6 00:00:37,436 --> 00:00:41,516 Speaker 1: the most opaque. Saudi Arabia's history is little understood outside 7 00:00:41,516 --> 00:00:44,316 Speaker 1: of the kingdom, but it's hugely important for understanding what's 8 00:00:44,356 --> 00:00:48,316 Speaker 1: going on there right now. Saudi Arabia looms very, very 9 00:00:48,436 --> 00:00:51,676 Speaker 1: large in US consciousness. It started in the nineteen seventies 10 00:00:51,676 --> 00:00:54,836 Speaker 1: when oil was everybody's focus. It rose during the first 11 00:00:54,876 --> 00:00:57,476 Speaker 1: Goal four and then it peaked in the years immediately 12 00:00:57,516 --> 00:01:01,516 Speaker 1: after September eleventh. Since then, Saudi Arabia has never been 13 00:01:01,716 --> 00:01:04,076 Speaker 1: entirely out of the news, but it has become an 14 00:01:04,196 --> 00:01:08,196 Speaker 1: especially intense focus of scrutiny and interest during the Trump administration. 15 00:01:08,516 --> 00:01:11,236 Speaker 1: And that's as of the close relationship between the new 16 00:01:11,356 --> 00:01:15,316 Speaker 1: dominant Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman or MBS as he's 17 00:01:15,356 --> 00:01:19,076 Speaker 1: called for short, and the Trump administration. You'll remember that 18 00:01:19,116 --> 00:01:21,156 Speaker 1: Donald Trump made a well publicized to visit the Saudi 19 00:01:21,156 --> 00:01:23,516 Speaker 1: Arabia in the spring of twenty seventeen that was the 20 00:01:23,556 --> 00:01:26,756 Speaker 1: one with a eerie, creepy crystal ball, and he showed 21 00:01:26,756 --> 00:01:30,356 Speaker 1: his great closeness to the government. Then this week, Trump 22 00:01:30,396 --> 00:01:34,556 Speaker 1: authorized a small troop deployment to the country after airstrikes 23 00:01:34,636 --> 00:01:38,236 Speaker 1: hit a major oil processing plant there. Saudi Arabia says 24 00:01:38,436 --> 00:01:44,196 Speaker 1: that Iran was behind the attack, a charge that Iran denies. Meanwhile, domestically, 25 00:01:44,516 --> 00:01:48,316 Speaker 1: an internal revolution of sorts, a quiet revolution, if you will, 26 00:01:48,516 --> 00:01:51,756 Speaker 1: has been happening inside of the Saudi Arabia. This is 27 00:01:51,756 --> 00:01:55,156 Speaker 1: a transformation both in social morays, with women suddenly able 28 00:01:55,156 --> 00:01:59,476 Speaker 1: to drive, and simultaneously in political power, with a traditional 29 00:01:59,516 --> 00:02:03,556 Speaker 1: Saudi royal elite family gradually giving way to a single 30 00:02:03,956 --> 00:02:09,996 Speaker 1: overarching figure. MBS himself to discuss the complex personality Bhammed 31 00:02:10,036 --> 00:02:13,396 Speaker 1: bin Salman, the history of US Saudi relations and the 32 00:02:13,516 --> 00:02:16,956 Speaker 1: revolutionary developments going on right now in Saudi Arabia. I 33 00:02:16,996 --> 00:02:18,996 Speaker 1: am thrilled to have with me here in the studio 34 00:02:19,316 --> 00:02:23,236 Speaker 1: Bernard Heckel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. 35 00:02:24,196 --> 00:02:27,796 Speaker 1: He says that to truly understand Saudi Arabia, you actually 36 00:02:27,836 --> 00:02:31,436 Speaker 1: have to start by considering the country's climate. It is 37 00:02:31,516 --> 00:02:34,236 Speaker 1: absolutely a very one of the driest places in the 38 00:02:34,276 --> 00:02:37,036 Speaker 1: world and in fact, one of the harshest ecologies in 39 00:02:37,036 --> 00:02:39,916 Speaker 1: the world. And I think one way to understand Saudi 40 00:02:39,996 --> 00:02:44,516 Speaker 1: culture is that historically it was an adaptation to that ecology. 41 00:02:44,756 --> 00:02:47,916 Speaker 1: Fascinating to tell me about about that adaptation and how 42 00:02:47,956 --> 00:02:51,236 Speaker 1: it connects to how Saudi Arabia was governed for really 43 00:02:51,276 --> 00:02:53,516 Speaker 1: the last couple of hundred years around since around the 44 00:02:53,556 --> 00:02:56,596 Speaker 1: time of the American Revolution, right, So, because it was 45 00:02:56,596 --> 00:02:59,916 Speaker 1: a very harsh ecology, you had, the principal form of 46 00:03:00,276 --> 00:03:05,276 Speaker 1: social organization was tribal, and tribes are organized around you know, 47 00:03:05,476 --> 00:03:09,276 Speaker 1: an eponym, a grandfather, and often are in conflict with 48 00:03:09,396 --> 00:03:12,396 Speaker 1: one another over material resources. So it happened and means 49 00:03:12,436 --> 00:03:14,596 Speaker 1: we are the tribe of so and so that's right, 50 00:03:14,596 --> 00:03:19,716 Speaker 1: We're descendants of of you know, Muhammad been someone and 51 00:03:19,516 --> 00:03:23,556 Speaker 1: and typically a tribe is also named after an ancestor um. 52 00:03:24,036 --> 00:03:28,996 Speaker 1: So these tribes were often feuding over resources. And the 53 00:03:29,076 --> 00:03:32,436 Speaker 1: Wahabis arose in a world in which you had a 54 00:03:32,436 --> 00:03:35,636 Speaker 1: lot of violence of that kind. And it was a 55 00:03:35,676 --> 00:03:39,436 Speaker 1: religious revivalist movement that basically tried to bring order, instability, 56 00:03:39,436 --> 00:03:42,876 Speaker 1: and create a state to control and tamp down the 57 00:03:43,196 --> 00:03:46,796 Speaker 1: nomadic the violent impulse of the nomads. So around two 58 00:03:46,876 --> 00:03:49,956 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty years ago, in this environment of nomadism, 59 00:03:49,996 --> 00:03:54,516 Speaker 1: with no central state, this religious revival movement, Wahabism comes 60 00:03:54,516 --> 00:03:59,036 Speaker 1: into existence. Right, named for even Ablwahab himself. It's his name, 61 00:03:59,196 --> 00:04:02,876 Speaker 1: that's right, It's that's right. It's named after a religious 62 00:04:02,916 --> 00:04:06,916 Speaker 1: reformer who was a kind of you can think of 63 00:04:06,996 --> 00:04:09,876 Speaker 1: him as a Calvin if you like, or a Luther 64 00:04:10,076 --> 00:04:12,836 Speaker 1: of his day, who basically said, you know that true 65 00:04:12,876 --> 00:04:17,076 Speaker 1: Islam is not practiced. People have deviated from the belief 66 00:04:17,116 --> 00:04:20,276 Speaker 1: in the One True God, and in the name of 67 00:04:20,636 --> 00:04:23,436 Speaker 1: God's oneness, the doctrine of God's oneness, I'm going to 68 00:04:23,476 --> 00:04:26,916 Speaker 1: impose the true faith on everyone, and I'll use the 69 00:04:26,996 --> 00:04:30,116 Speaker 1: sword if necessary to do so. So how did this 70 00:04:30,516 --> 00:04:35,396 Speaker 1: religious reform movement marry itself into a political state. So 71 00:04:35,756 --> 00:04:39,996 Speaker 1: the religious reformer himself made a pact with a local 72 00:04:40,116 --> 00:04:43,436 Speaker 1: leader of a town and essentially said, you know, if 73 00:04:43,516 --> 00:04:47,676 Speaker 1: you mobilize your resources in the name of this religious ideology, 74 00:04:47,716 --> 00:04:51,716 Speaker 1: I will give you legitimacy. And then they started preaching 75 00:04:52,116 --> 00:04:57,596 Speaker 1: and fighting and soon began to acquire other territory in 76 00:04:57,676 --> 00:05:02,716 Speaker 1: bringing other territory under their under their power until around 77 00:05:02,796 --> 00:05:07,156 Speaker 1: eighteen o five when they captured Mecca and Medina, and 78 00:05:07,396 --> 00:05:10,916 Speaker 1: much of modern day Arabia came under their influence. And 79 00:05:10,956 --> 00:05:14,116 Speaker 1: the name of the man with whom Ibanabluwahab made this 80 00:05:14,156 --> 00:05:18,236 Speaker 1: deal was Muhammad Ibansoud. And so there is the earth 81 00:05:18,316 --> 00:05:21,396 Speaker 1: of the name Saudi Arabia. It's a guy, it is 82 00:05:21,516 --> 00:05:23,756 Speaker 1: Saud is a guy. I often say to people. There 83 00:05:23,756 --> 00:05:26,036 Speaker 1: are not many countries in the world that are named 84 00:05:26,476 --> 00:05:29,596 Speaker 1: the Arabia of somebody. In particular, Saudi Arabia means the 85 00:05:29,636 --> 00:05:32,076 Speaker 1: Arabia that belongs to the family of Saud. That's right, 86 00:05:32,116 --> 00:05:35,436 Speaker 1: and in fact the country owes its existence to their 87 00:05:35,836 --> 00:05:40,876 Speaker 1: religio military efforts to unite this entire territory. So the 88 00:05:40,956 --> 00:05:44,396 Speaker 1: birth of Saudi Arabia happens again right around the time 89 00:05:44,436 --> 00:05:47,356 Speaker 1: of the American Revolution, and it grows out of this 90 00:05:47,516 --> 00:05:52,676 Speaker 1: close alliance between the religious reformer and Wahabism and the 91 00:05:52,716 --> 00:05:55,836 Speaker 1: Saudi family and the government that grows out of that. 92 00:05:55,916 --> 00:05:58,796 Speaker 1: So the modern Saudi states, in their various iterations for 93 00:05:58,796 --> 00:06:01,276 Speaker 1: the last two hundred years, are all reflections of that 94 00:06:01,396 --> 00:06:05,356 Speaker 1: unique marriage. And in fact, you know, that's why what's 95 00:06:05,356 --> 00:06:09,636 Speaker 1: happening today is somewhat remarkable because we see that alliance 96 00:06:09,996 --> 00:06:14,076 Speaker 1: between a religious movement and a political family, a dynasty 97 00:06:14,556 --> 00:06:18,516 Speaker 1: coming somewhat apart. So this at least being reconfigured. How 98 00:06:18,556 --> 00:06:21,996 Speaker 1: has the relationship between the religious dynasty, because it's been 99 00:06:21,996 --> 00:06:26,036 Speaker 1: a couple hundred years and the political dynasty traditionally operated 100 00:06:26,196 --> 00:06:30,116 Speaker 1: until this most recent generation, right, So this Saudi history 101 00:06:30,116 --> 00:06:34,196 Speaker 1: in the Saudist states have had three different iterations. So 102 00:06:34,236 --> 00:06:37,596 Speaker 1: you had the first Saudi State, which was founded on 103 00:06:37,636 --> 00:06:41,036 Speaker 1: this pact in seventeen forty four and lasted until eighteen 104 00:06:41,076 --> 00:06:43,636 Speaker 1: eighteen when it was crushed by the Ottomans. Then there 105 00:06:43,676 --> 00:06:46,996 Speaker 1: was a second Saudi State, which was less powerful, less 106 00:06:47,076 --> 00:06:51,156 Speaker 1: influential in the nineteenth century, didn't didn't go very far. 107 00:06:51,436 --> 00:06:53,956 Speaker 1: And then we are now in the third Saudi State. 108 00:06:53,956 --> 00:06:56,996 Speaker 1: And this third Saudis state was initiated by one of 109 00:06:56,996 --> 00:07:00,476 Speaker 1: the descendants of the founder, Muhammad Eben Sud. He's known 110 00:07:00,516 --> 00:07:04,476 Speaker 1: as out King Ablaziz otherwise known as Eben Saud as well, 111 00:07:05,156 --> 00:07:10,716 Speaker 1: and he began the unification with through the use of 112 00:07:10,756 --> 00:07:14,636 Speaker 1: this religious ideology and violence of the modern Saudi State, 113 00:07:14,716 --> 00:07:18,036 Speaker 1: which was ultimately declared a kingdom in nineteen thirty two 114 00:07:18,316 --> 00:07:23,156 Speaker 1: and he became a king. But he allied with this family, 115 00:07:23,236 --> 00:07:26,876 Speaker 1: this religious family of the reformer traditional alliance, and he 116 00:07:26,876 --> 00:07:28,636 Speaker 1: went back that's right, he went back to it. He 117 00:07:28,876 --> 00:07:36,316 Speaker 1: mobilized a religious ideology and forces to bring other territories 118 00:07:36,396 --> 00:07:39,436 Speaker 1: under his control. Just started around nineteen o two. By 119 00:07:39,516 --> 00:07:43,036 Speaker 1: nineteen thirty two we have the creation of modern Saudi Arabia. 120 00:07:43,116 --> 00:07:45,796 Speaker 1: And amazingly, he did not do this on the suspicion 121 00:07:46,396 --> 00:07:49,316 Speaker 1: that there was oil wealth waiting to be found. Yeah, 122 00:07:49,356 --> 00:07:52,876 Speaker 1: none at all. And then as though by direct divine providence, 123 00:07:53,076 --> 00:07:57,516 Speaker 1: right shortly after the state was consolidated, boom, they find oil. 124 00:07:57,676 --> 00:08:01,116 Speaker 1: That's right. Lo and behold, you know, the largest oil 125 00:08:01,196 --> 00:08:04,556 Speaker 1: fields in the world are in Saudi Arabia. One of them, 126 00:08:04,636 --> 00:08:09,596 Speaker 1: for instance, called Kawar is the size of Delaware oil 127 00:08:09,596 --> 00:08:11,716 Speaker 1: field is the size of that. And it has been 128 00:08:11,756 --> 00:08:14,596 Speaker 1: pumping you know, close to five million barrels for the 129 00:08:14,676 --> 00:08:17,116 Speaker 1: last fifty some years. With I mean no end in 130 00:08:17,196 --> 00:08:20,036 Speaker 1: immediate site. Eventually it will end, yes, and that's part 131 00:08:20,076 --> 00:08:22,276 Speaker 1: of what we'll talk about. Yes, but you know this 132 00:08:22,356 --> 00:08:24,436 Speaker 1: is you know, the Saudi Arabia has about twenty three 133 00:08:24,516 --> 00:08:27,996 Speaker 1: percent of the world's proven oil reserves, and it is 134 00:08:27,996 --> 00:08:30,796 Speaker 1: the cheapest number, and it's the cheapest oil to produce 135 00:08:30,876 --> 00:08:32,556 Speaker 1: in the world as well. I mean, you know, it 136 00:08:32,636 --> 00:08:36,756 Speaker 1: just literally almost comes out of the ground with minimal effort, right, 137 00:08:37,276 --> 00:08:43,036 Speaker 1: with minimal effort. So this extraordinary thing happens in which 138 00:08:43,636 --> 00:08:47,156 Speaker 1: what was otherwise a kind of minor kingdom in an 139 00:08:47,156 --> 00:08:50,436 Speaker 1: area that most countries had never bothered with, yes, suddenly 140 00:08:50,476 --> 00:08:53,116 Speaker 1: became one of the most valuable pieces of real estate 141 00:08:53,156 --> 00:08:55,796 Speaker 1: in the world because it's sitting on these oil resources. Yes. 142 00:08:56,316 --> 00:08:59,716 Speaker 1: I would have imagined that when that happened, the ruler 143 00:08:59,756 --> 00:09:02,636 Speaker 1: would have tacked away from his alliance with the religious 144 00:09:02,636 --> 00:09:06,316 Speaker 1: authorities and just gone in on his own. But that 145 00:09:06,396 --> 00:09:10,276 Speaker 1: didn't happen. Yeah, why why did it happen? Well, I 146 00:09:10,316 --> 00:09:13,996 Speaker 1: mean to understand King Ablasis even so, you have to 147 00:09:14,076 --> 00:09:18,516 Speaker 1: understand that the man, I think had it several qualities, 148 00:09:18,876 --> 00:09:21,516 Speaker 1: the most important of which is that he knew the 149 00:09:21,596 --> 00:09:24,836 Speaker 1: limits of his own power, and he knew that his 150 00:09:24,996 --> 00:09:29,876 Speaker 1: population was deeply conservative, in fact, religiously quite reactionary, and 151 00:09:29,916 --> 00:09:34,236 Speaker 1: that he needed religion in order to control his population. 152 00:09:34,556 --> 00:09:38,516 Speaker 1: There's an apocryphal saying. I think it's apocryphal, but it's 153 00:09:38,516 --> 00:09:42,316 Speaker 1: perfectly in keeping with his temperament and his character, which 154 00:09:42,356 --> 00:09:45,916 Speaker 1: says that religion he is meant to have said, religion 155 00:09:46,156 --> 00:09:48,956 Speaker 1: is like a falcon. The one who controls it hunts 156 00:09:48,956 --> 00:09:52,996 Speaker 1: with it. So he understood the power of religion, you know, 157 00:09:53,116 --> 00:09:56,956 Speaker 1: very very well. So King Ablasis creates this dynasty, and 158 00:09:56,956 --> 00:09:58,476 Speaker 1: then he does that kind of remarkable thing. He had 159 00:09:58,476 --> 00:10:01,596 Speaker 1: an enormous number of sons, right, Yes, not quite a hundred, 160 00:10:01,676 --> 00:10:03,796 Speaker 1: but in that no, he had about thirty four thirty 161 00:10:03,836 --> 00:10:07,196 Speaker 1: five sons and an equal number of daughters. And he 162 00:10:07,276 --> 00:10:11,436 Speaker 1: set things up so that the inheritance of his royal 163 00:10:11,716 --> 00:10:14,556 Speaker 1: throne would not just go from father to son, father 164 00:10:14,636 --> 00:10:17,236 Speaker 1: to son, father to son, as many sort of Game 165 00:10:17,276 --> 00:10:20,116 Speaker 1: of Thrones ish regimes, yes, do it, but rather in 166 00:10:20,116 --> 00:10:22,436 Speaker 1: a kind of somewhat unusual model where it went to 167 00:10:22,676 --> 00:10:25,316 Speaker 1: his one of his older sons, right, and then it 168 00:10:25,316 --> 00:10:28,636 Speaker 1: was supposed to go down through the brothers. That's right. 169 00:10:28,756 --> 00:10:30,956 Speaker 1: Why why I've always been curious about this. It's such 170 00:10:30,956 --> 00:10:32,796 Speaker 1: an unusual way of doing things, and it's been so 171 00:10:32,836 --> 00:10:35,236 Speaker 1: crucial to the history of Saudi Arabia. How did they 172 00:10:35,236 --> 00:10:39,276 Speaker 1: come up with this mechanism of emsignating designating errors? I 173 00:10:39,356 --> 00:10:41,796 Speaker 1: mean I think. I think that first of all, it's 174 00:10:41,796 --> 00:10:44,556 Speaker 1: not a it's not a super formalized system, Okay, so 175 00:10:44,556 --> 00:10:47,876 Speaker 1: it can be changed, and it is being changed now. Yeah, 176 00:10:48,236 --> 00:10:50,596 Speaker 1: we're coming to the revolution that any moment now, right. 177 00:10:50,636 --> 00:10:53,276 Speaker 1: So the first thing to understand also is that that 178 00:10:53,596 --> 00:10:55,556 Speaker 1: the creation of Saudi Arabia was not just the work 179 00:10:55,596 --> 00:10:58,356 Speaker 1: of King Ablasis. It was also the creation of some 180 00:10:58,396 --> 00:11:00,996 Speaker 1: of his sons who were very close an age to him. 181 00:11:01,036 --> 00:11:03,316 Speaker 1: I mean, many of them had fought these battles themselves 182 00:11:03,316 --> 00:11:05,676 Speaker 1: with him because they were with him pretty young, that's right. Yeah. 183 00:11:05,716 --> 00:11:08,996 Speaker 1: And so so the idea that somehow you could side 184 00:11:09,156 --> 00:11:11,636 Speaker 1: line these people who were the founding fathers of the 185 00:11:11,716 --> 00:11:16,916 Speaker 1: kingdom was deemed untenable. So it was determined that the 186 00:11:16,956 --> 00:11:21,596 Speaker 1: most competent, the most eligible of the sons would become 187 00:11:22,556 --> 00:11:26,836 Speaker 1: the king by consensus and acclamation of the other brothers, 188 00:11:27,436 --> 00:11:30,796 Speaker 1: and the government was divvied up between the brothers. So 189 00:11:30,836 --> 00:11:34,396 Speaker 1: you had different ministries under the control of different brothers, 190 00:11:34,396 --> 00:11:37,236 Speaker 1: each one of which became sort of almost like a 191 00:11:37,236 --> 00:11:41,036 Speaker 1: semi autonomous statelet if you like, within the state. So 192 00:11:41,116 --> 00:11:43,796 Speaker 1: one guy controlled the Ministry of the Interior, another person 193 00:11:43,916 --> 00:11:46,876 Speaker 1: was the governor of a large province. A third was 194 00:11:47,276 --> 00:11:49,476 Speaker 1: in charge of the foreign ministry and so on, though 195 00:11:49,516 --> 00:11:51,356 Speaker 1: they like to use a non brother for the ministry 196 00:11:51,356 --> 00:11:54,316 Speaker 1: of oil. Right, that's right for too important, that's right 197 00:11:54,396 --> 00:11:57,956 Speaker 1: for the kind of crown jewels of the system. And 198 00:11:57,996 --> 00:12:01,316 Speaker 1: there are really two. One is the oil company Saudi Aramco, 199 00:12:01,596 --> 00:12:04,116 Speaker 1: that's always been run by a technocrat, and princes were 200 00:12:04,156 --> 00:12:07,316 Speaker 1: kept away in order not to mess it up. And 201 00:12:07,356 --> 00:12:09,636 Speaker 1: the other is the central bank, what is called the 202 00:12:09,636 --> 00:12:12,556 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, that's always been run also by 203 00:12:12,556 --> 00:12:16,836 Speaker 1: a technocrat. So they divided up power between themselves. You know, 204 00:12:16,876 --> 00:12:19,476 Speaker 1: it became a gerontocracy. It became a country that was 205 00:12:19,596 --> 00:12:24,516 Speaker 1: increasingly ruled by very old people because the brothers got older. 206 00:12:24,556 --> 00:12:27,156 Speaker 1: And that's right. The brothers got older and older, and 207 00:12:27,196 --> 00:12:29,476 Speaker 1: they stayed on, you know, in positions of power, some 208 00:12:29,556 --> 00:12:32,396 Speaker 1: of them for forty fifty years as ministers different and 209 00:12:32,436 --> 00:12:36,116 Speaker 1: different agencies of the government. And as a result you 210 00:12:36,236 --> 00:12:40,236 Speaker 1: had the consequences of that politically, that people as they 211 00:12:40,276 --> 00:12:42,796 Speaker 1: got older didn't want to change things. It's a place 212 00:12:42,836 --> 00:12:46,876 Speaker 1: that's extremely conservative to begin with. So to understand MBS 213 00:12:46,916 --> 00:12:49,276 Speaker 1: also you have to understand that that he comes out 214 00:12:49,276 --> 00:12:52,996 Speaker 1: of a system that was essentially run by extremely old 215 00:12:53,036 --> 00:12:57,916 Speaker 1: people who were unwilling to change how the country. Yeah, 216 00:12:57,996 --> 00:13:00,436 Speaker 1: how the country was run. So as the brothers get 217 00:13:00,476 --> 00:13:02,596 Speaker 1: as the even of the youngest of the brothers gets 218 00:13:02,596 --> 00:13:05,436 Speaker 1: older and older, any observer inside and outside can tell 219 00:13:05,476 --> 00:13:07,876 Speaker 1: that at some point they're gonna have to switch away 220 00:13:07,916 --> 00:13:11,756 Speaker 1: from the brothers. That's now set the stage for the 221 00:13:11,836 --> 00:13:14,476 Speaker 1: current day and the rise of the crown Prince Mohammed 222 00:13:14,516 --> 00:13:16,636 Speaker 1: bin Salmon. Where does he stand first of all generationally 223 00:13:17,036 --> 00:13:21,396 Speaker 1: compared to a Blasi's Ben Salwood? You know, I mean, 224 00:13:21,436 --> 00:13:25,036 Speaker 1: he is the grandson of the founder King, but the 225 00:13:25,116 --> 00:13:29,156 Speaker 1: grandfather died in nineteen fifty three and he's still in 226 00:13:29,156 --> 00:13:31,796 Speaker 1: his early thirties today, and he was born around nineteen 227 00:13:31,916 --> 00:13:35,476 Speaker 1: eighty I believe. But his father has still let us 228 00:13:35,516 --> 00:13:38,876 Speaker 1: not forget the King of Saudi Arabia, King Salmon is 229 00:13:38,916 --> 00:13:41,436 Speaker 1: the son. Yes, he's the son of the founder. So 230 00:13:41,436 --> 00:13:44,996 Speaker 1: we're still technically speaking, yes, we're still on the sons. 231 00:13:45,156 --> 00:13:47,516 Speaker 1: That's what the original founder. We're not quite done yet, 232 00:13:47,596 --> 00:13:50,756 Speaker 1: that's right. And what happened is, as things do happen, 233 00:13:50,836 --> 00:13:54,276 Speaker 1: people die, and so a lot of the sons have died, 234 00:13:54,316 --> 00:13:58,036 Speaker 1: and many of the principal architects of the system have 235 00:13:58,196 --> 00:14:01,916 Speaker 1: passed away. King Salmon is one of the last great 236 00:14:02,436 --> 00:14:05,316 Speaker 1: sons and of the founder, and one of the great 237 00:14:05,396 --> 00:14:08,916 Speaker 1: pillars of the of the system. He was, for instance, 238 00:14:08,956 --> 00:14:12,156 Speaker 1: the governor of the of the largest province, the province 239 00:14:12,156 --> 00:14:14,956 Speaker 1: of Riad, for you know, many decades. He was the 240 00:14:15,076 --> 00:14:20,236 Speaker 1: enforcer of the family's discipline. Um. He was the keeper 241 00:14:20,356 --> 00:14:22,636 Speaker 1: of the history of the family and of the kingdom. 242 00:14:22,716 --> 00:14:26,196 Speaker 1: He's you know, he's a formidable person. The present king 243 00:14:26,236 --> 00:14:29,116 Speaker 1: someone he decided that we're going to move away from 244 00:14:29,156 --> 00:14:33,836 Speaker 1: this old system of brothers and consensus to one of primogenitor, 245 00:14:33,996 --> 00:14:37,476 Speaker 1: where you know, his son will become although not he 246 00:14:37,716 --> 00:14:40,436 Speaker 1: chose not to not to choose his eldest son. Why not? 247 00:14:40,516 --> 00:14:42,436 Speaker 1: What was wrong with the eldest son. It's not clear. 248 00:14:42,796 --> 00:14:46,716 Speaker 1: It's not clear why he chose U Mohammad bin Salman MBS. 249 00:14:46,836 --> 00:14:48,796 Speaker 1: MBS is the son of the third wife, is the 250 00:14:48,796 --> 00:14:51,556 Speaker 1: eldest of the of the children of the third wife 251 00:14:52,036 --> 00:14:54,956 Speaker 1: of the king. And you know, there are rumors as 252 00:14:54,956 --> 00:14:58,076 Speaker 1: to why. One is that he saw in him something 253 00:14:58,476 --> 00:15:00,676 Speaker 1: that he didn't see in the other sons. You know, 254 00:15:00,756 --> 00:15:04,236 Speaker 1: going back to a Saudi um saying again to do 255 00:15:04,276 --> 00:15:09,756 Speaker 1: it again to another number two, yes, another, often saying 256 00:15:10,356 --> 00:15:12,916 Speaker 1: in Saudi Arabia they say that the father is the 257 00:15:12,916 --> 00:15:15,916 Speaker 1: falconer of his sons. In other words, the father knows 258 00:15:15,956 --> 00:15:19,356 Speaker 1: which of his sons is the best hunting falcon, and 259 00:15:19,436 --> 00:15:22,396 Speaker 1: so it seems that he has chosen emy. Clearly, he 260 00:15:22,396 --> 00:15:24,876 Speaker 1: has chosen MBS as the best of the falcons. I 261 00:15:24,876 --> 00:15:26,796 Speaker 1: don't think I should tell my kids that I am 262 00:15:26,836 --> 00:15:28,636 Speaker 1: your falconer. I don't know. I don't know how well 263 00:15:28,676 --> 00:15:31,596 Speaker 1: that would that would go over, but it makes sense. Yes, okay, 264 00:15:31,636 --> 00:15:36,156 Speaker 1: So the stage is now set. King Salman says, we're 265 00:15:36,276 --> 00:15:39,676 Speaker 1: changing the order. Instead of going to one of my brothers, 266 00:15:39,836 --> 00:15:41,836 Speaker 1: and there are a handful of them left, I am 267 00:15:41,836 --> 00:15:45,836 Speaker 1: going to designate my son, Mahmad bin Saman MBS as 268 00:15:46,316 --> 00:15:49,156 Speaker 1: the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. He is going to 269 00:15:49,156 --> 00:15:51,236 Speaker 1: get the torne. He's going to be the first king 270 00:15:51,276 --> 00:15:54,956 Speaker 1: of Saudi Arabia who was not either of modern Saudi Arabia, 271 00:15:54,996 --> 00:15:58,516 Speaker 1: who's not either King Abdlasi's himself or one of his sons. Correct. 272 00:15:58,796 --> 00:16:05,396 Speaker 1: And that leads to something of a sense of dissatisfaction 273 00:16:05,596 --> 00:16:08,516 Speaker 1: among the other brothers because he's breaking the chain of 274 00:16:08,556 --> 00:16:13,676 Speaker 1: succession is breaking all the rules, and in response, MBS 275 00:16:13,876 --> 00:16:19,476 Speaker 1: has to take decisive action involving the Ritz Carlton Hotel. 276 00:16:19,596 --> 00:16:22,316 Speaker 1: So yes, tell us from this perspective, So what was 277 00:16:22,396 --> 00:16:25,916 Speaker 1: going on? So I think you know, to understand the Ritz, 278 00:16:25,956 --> 00:16:28,876 Speaker 1: you have to understand also that this is an absolutist 279 00:16:28,916 --> 00:16:32,476 Speaker 1: monarchy and absolute monarchy. So the king has final say 280 00:16:32,476 --> 00:16:36,036 Speaker 1: in all matters. And this king is king. While all 281 00:16:36,076 --> 00:16:39,876 Speaker 1: the key brothers who would have in the past stood 282 00:16:39,876 --> 00:16:43,196 Speaker 1: in his way tried, you know, whose views mattered are 283 00:16:43,236 --> 00:16:45,036 Speaker 1: no longer around, right, who were supposed to but they 284 00:16:45,036 --> 00:16:48,436 Speaker 1: were also so the older brothers dead, the older most 285 00:16:48,436 --> 00:16:51,676 Speaker 1: senior ones are gone, so he had room for maneuver. 286 00:16:51,756 --> 00:16:54,036 Speaker 1: He had much more room for maneuver. He's an absolute monarch, 287 00:16:54,076 --> 00:16:56,876 Speaker 1: and everyone in Saudi Arabia ultimately looks to the king. 288 00:16:57,036 --> 00:16:59,516 Speaker 1: So the king's will, just like in the case of 289 00:16:59,556 --> 00:17:03,276 Speaker 1: Louis the fourteenth is final and we'll determine the nature 290 00:17:03,316 --> 00:17:07,636 Speaker 1: of succession. Now, what MBS does is he also sees 291 00:17:07,716 --> 00:17:13,436 Speaker 1: a system that is incredibly corrupt, in which many princes 292 00:17:14,236 --> 00:17:19,276 Speaker 1: but also businessmen and bureaucrats and administrators are involved in 293 00:17:20,036 --> 00:17:23,716 Speaker 1: all kinds of schemes where you know, the government gets 294 00:17:23,716 --> 00:17:27,916 Speaker 1: overcharged on contracts, all kinds of kickbacks take place, and 295 00:17:28,316 --> 00:17:30,676 Speaker 1: NBS wants to show that there's a new sheriff in 296 00:17:30,676 --> 00:17:33,996 Speaker 1: town and that that old system is no longer going 297 00:17:34,076 --> 00:17:38,316 Speaker 1: to function, and you know, feeding at the trough, you know, 298 00:17:38,396 --> 00:17:41,636 Speaker 1: where the government is paying ten to twenty percent extra 299 00:17:42,116 --> 00:17:45,396 Speaker 1: just because of this corruption on all its contracts is 300 00:17:45,436 --> 00:17:48,876 Speaker 1: going to stop. So he has this arrest of hundreds 301 00:17:48,916 --> 00:17:53,476 Speaker 1: of people, many of them princes. So these are his cousins, cousins, uncles, 302 00:17:53,876 --> 00:17:56,756 Speaker 1: and he you know, he has them, you know, put 303 00:17:56,796 --> 00:17:59,716 Speaker 1: in as well as bureaucrats as well as businessmen. You know, 304 00:17:59,716 --> 00:18:03,796 Speaker 1: all the entire kind of elite that managed the system 305 00:18:04,036 --> 00:18:07,316 Speaker 1: gets put into the Ritz Carlton and here in the West, 306 00:18:07,396 --> 00:18:10,956 Speaker 1: everyone saw this as a shakedown on for MBS to 307 00:18:11,196 --> 00:18:15,756 Speaker 1: benefit personally from the money. When I asked around about like, well, 308 00:18:15,836 --> 00:18:18,876 Speaker 1: is he trying to wrench it himself? And one Saudi said, 309 00:18:19,076 --> 00:18:21,716 Speaker 1: but you know, he controls the river of money. I mean, 310 00:18:21,716 --> 00:18:24,116 Speaker 1: he is in charge, you know, he is the state 311 00:18:24,236 --> 00:18:27,636 Speaker 1: is the state, so he can take any money he 312 00:18:27,676 --> 00:18:29,876 Speaker 1: wants from the state already, So it's not it's not. 313 00:18:30,996 --> 00:18:33,156 Speaker 1: It was something else was. So I think it was 314 00:18:33,196 --> 00:18:37,116 Speaker 1: two things. One was to destroy that older system of 315 00:18:37,156 --> 00:18:40,676 Speaker 1: corruption and perhaps create a new one with him at 316 00:18:40,676 --> 00:18:43,356 Speaker 1: the center and centralized, yeah, you know, or a much 317 00:18:43,396 --> 00:18:47,716 Speaker 1: smaller one, um, but certainly kind of a change in 318 00:18:47,916 --> 00:18:51,436 Speaker 1: hierarchy and power. And it was about getting some of 319 00:18:51,476 --> 00:18:55,116 Speaker 1: that money back into the public treasury. And I think 320 00:18:55,156 --> 00:18:57,596 Speaker 1: he managed to do some of that. If the money 321 00:18:57,676 --> 00:19:00,756 Speaker 1: was in country, the money that was overseas was almost 322 00:19:00,796 --> 00:19:04,636 Speaker 1: impossible to bring back, and according to reports, they weren't gentle, 323 00:19:05,236 --> 00:19:08,316 Speaker 1: even with very senior members of the royal family. Yeah, 324 00:19:08,356 --> 00:19:10,916 Speaker 1: it's possible. You know. Firstly, you have to remember that 325 00:19:11,316 --> 00:19:14,316 Speaker 1: anything you remember, the royal family has never confronted a 326 00:19:14,356 --> 00:19:18,356 Speaker 1: situation where someone says to them you can't have this, 327 00:19:18,476 --> 00:19:20,396 Speaker 1: or you can't. You can't you know us, you can't 328 00:19:20,476 --> 00:19:23,396 Speaker 1: leave your right, So I think so, I do think 329 00:19:23,476 --> 00:19:26,996 Speaker 1: there was coercion that was used of different kinds. I 330 00:19:27,076 --> 00:19:30,276 Speaker 1: have no proof that torture was used, but it wouldn't 331 00:19:30,276 --> 00:19:36,756 Speaker 1: surprise me, right, and it's clear that it was very effective. Yeah. So, 332 00:19:37,716 --> 00:19:41,756 Speaker 1: as Mohammed bin Salman MBS consolidates power, he's also trying 333 00:19:42,316 --> 00:19:46,076 Speaker 1: to change something about the authority of religion. At the 334 00:19:46,196 --> 00:19:49,796 Speaker 1: same time, Yes, so we hear about women driving, which 335 00:19:49,836 --> 00:19:53,076 Speaker 1: is something that the traditional religious scholars have been blocking 336 00:19:53,116 --> 00:19:55,716 Speaker 1: for many, many years. How is he doing that and 337 00:19:56,076 --> 00:19:59,396 Speaker 1: how real is that? You know? Sometimes critics say, well, 338 00:19:59,516 --> 00:20:02,476 Speaker 1: Mohammad bin Salman needs to be liked abroad, he needs 339 00:20:02,516 --> 00:20:04,996 Speaker 1: support from the Trump administration and or to consolidate power. 340 00:20:05,356 --> 00:20:08,236 Speaker 1: So he's throwing in the West some bones by saying, oh, 341 00:20:08,356 --> 00:20:11,636 Speaker 1: we'll liberalize for women, will let them drive. But there's 342 00:20:11,636 --> 00:20:14,596 Speaker 1: still a guardianship system in the country where women in 343 00:20:14,716 --> 00:20:17,756 Speaker 1: theory can't travel or you know, make important life decisions 344 00:20:17,796 --> 00:20:19,996 Speaker 1: without the agreement of a male guardian. So it's all 345 00:20:20,036 --> 00:20:23,836 Speaker 1: superficial talk. Talk about a what he's doing, and be 346 00:20:24,116 --> 00:20:27,156 Speaker 1: how real it is. So I think again, to understand 347 00:20:27,556 --> 00:20:31,076 Speaker 1: the changes that he's affecting, you have to understand the 348 00:20:31,116 --> 00:20:34,156 Speaker 1: relationship that the Saudi state had with religion, and for 349 00:20:34,276 --> 00:20:36,596 Speaker 1: that to understand that, you have to go back to 350 00:20:36,636 --> 00:20:41,476 Speaker 1: the Cold War. So during the Cold War, the Saudis 351 00:20:41,516 --> 00:20:48,196 Speaker 1: were under immediate threat from other ideologies, namely communist ideology, socialism, 352 00:20:48,316 --> 00:20:52,116 Speaker 1: Arab nationalism from Egypt, from Syria, and so on, and 353 00:20:52,316 --> 00:20:55,836 Speaker 1: coups were taking place where military officers were toppling dynastic 354 00:20:56,276 --> 00:21:01,156 Speaker 1: monarchies in Libya and Iraq, almost anywhere and everywhere in 355 00:21:01,196 --> 00:21:03,116 Speaker 1: the Middle East. It was a bad period for kings 356 00:21:03,116 --> 00:21:05,756 Speaker 1: in the Middle that's right. And so the Americans who 357 00:21:05,796 --> 00:21:09,916 Speaker 1: were at war with in a Cold War against the Communists, 358 00:21:09,956 --> 00:21:12,396 Speaker 1: basically come to the Saudis in late nineteen fifties under 359 00:21:12,396 --> 00:21:15,156 Speaker 1: Presdent Eisenhower and say to the Saudis, you know, why 360 00:21:15,156 --> 00:21:18,796 Speaker 1: don't you mobilize Islam as a political ideology against the left. 361 00:21:19,396 --> 00:21:22,516 Speaker 1: And initially the Saudis we're doing in God we trust by, 362 00:21:22,556 --> 00:21:24,556 Speaker 1: don't you guys try the same, That's right. And the 363 00:21:24,596 --> 00:21:27,436 Speaker 1: Saudis initially didn't have the wherewithal in the resources to 364 00:21:27,516 --> 00:21:30,556 Speaker 1: do this. They would have liked to. But it's only 365 00:21:30,596 --> 00:21:33,116 Speaker 1: in the sixties, when a lot of the Muslim brothers 366 00:21:33,196 --> 00:21:36,796 Speaker 1: who are members of an Islamist organization are being persecuted 367 00:21:36,836 --> 00:21:40,756 Speaker 1: and discriminated against in countries like Egyptirian Iraq end up 368 00:21:40,796 --> 00:21:43,956 Speaker 1: seeking refuge in Arabia, that the Saudis have the manpower 369 00:21:43,996 --> 00:21:47,116 Speaker 1: the human capital to start using Islam as a political 370 00:21:47,156 --> 00:21:52,276 Speaker 1: ideology against their ideological opponents outside. The always used it internally, 371 00:21:52,316 --> 00:21:54,796 Speaker 1: but they didn't have the manpower. They didn't have the educated, 372 00:21:54,916 --> 00:21:58,596 Speaker 1: skillful peoples that moved through the arable world spreading their message, 373 00:21:58,596 --> 00:22:01,676 Speaker 1: and it became, you know, absolutely central to how Saudi 374 00:22:01,676 --> 00:22:04,196 Speaker 1: Arabia defended itself, and in fact it got ramped up 375 00:22:04,236 --> 00:22:06,636 Speaker 1: at the end of the nineteen seventies of the Irania Revolution, 376 00:22:07,076 --> 00:22:11,276 Speaker 1: which was also an Islamic revolution and sought to undermine 377 00:22:11,276 --> 00:22:15,116 Speaker 1: Saudi legitimacy. So the Saudi's turned up the volume on 378 00:22:15,476 --> 00:22:18,636 Speaker 1: Islam as a political ideology and as patrons of this ideology. 379 00:22:19,116 --> 00:22:22,076 Speaker 1: So this is a kind of a Cold War story. 380 00:22:22,276 --> 00:22:25,876 Speaker 1: It's also a story of confronting Iran, and of course 381 00:22:26,036 --> 00:22:28,356 Speaker 1: with the Cold War, the culmination of that alliance with 382 00:22:28,356 --> 00:22:31,676 Speaker 1: the US using Islamis ideology was an Alfhanistan and that 383 00:22:32,076 --> 00:22:35,276 Speaker 1: ended up producing al Qaida, which is an unintended consequence. 384 00:22:35,556 --> 00:22:40,116 Speaker 1: So MBS against this background, MBS says, you know, this 385 00:22:40,236 --> 00:22:43,956 Speaker 1: alliance with Islamists using Islam as you know, has brought 386 00:22:43,996 --> 00:22:47,236 Speaker 1: us nothing but grief. It produced al Qaida. The Americans 387 00:22:47,276 --> 00:22:49,076 Speaker 1: are not blaming us for it, when in fact we 388 00:22:49,076 --> 00:22:51,596 Speaker 1: were allies with the Americans, and so I don't want 389 00:22:51,596 --> 00:22:53,436 Speaker 1: to have anything to do with it. I want to 390 00:22:53,516 --> 00:22:57,436 Speaker 1: just give up Islamism completely and moreover, it's creating a 391 00:22:57,516 --> 00:23:01,036 Speaker 1: society here in Saudi Arabia where no foreigner wants to 392 00:23:01,076 --> 00:23:03,756 Speaker 1: come and work here. And I want to be like Dubai. 393 00:23:03,876 --> 00:23:06,076 Speaker 1: I want to be dynamic. I want to create a 394 00:23:06,196 --> 00:23:09,516 Speaker 1: knoledge economy. I want you know, people to want to 395 00:23:09,516 --> 00:23:11,996 Speaker 1: come here. And for that to happen, I need to 396 00:23:12,036 --> 00:23:15,316 Speaker 1: socially liberalize. I need for women to be in the workplace. 397 00:23:15,716 --> 00:23:18,956 Speaker 1: I need to perhaps allow for alcohol to be consumed, 398 00:23:19,396 --> 00:23:22,396 Speaker 1: and I need a lot more kind of live and 399 00:23:22,476 --> 00:23:26,996 Speaker 1: let live, which you know is impossible under the old dispensation. 400 00:23:27,556 --> 00:23:30,916 Speaker 1: And so I'm breaking with that passed. So on that view, 401 00:23:31,196 --> 00:23:33,956 Speaker 1: we don't even need to ask so much whether MBS 402 00:23:34,076 --> 00:23:37,116 Speaker 1: is throwing a bone to the West. It's the opposite. 403 00:23:37,116 --> 00:23:40,716 Speaker 1: It's that it's in MBS is actual interest to weaken 404 00:23:40,836 --> 00:23:43,556 Speaker 1: religious authorities. So when he does something like allow women 405 00:23:43,596 --> 00:23:46,036 Speaker 1: to drive, it's not necessarily he cares so much about women. 406 00:23:46,116 --> 00:23:50,036 Speaker 1: Inherently is that he's trying to produce a more westernize 407 00:23:50,076 --> 00:23:52,996 Speaker 1: is too strong a term, but a more liberalized society 408 00:23:53,316 --> 00:23:55,196 Speaker 1: to help himself and to help his economy. Yeah, I 409 00:23:55,236 --> 00:23:57,796 Speaker 1: mean not politically liberal at all, but you know, something 410 00:23:57,996 --> 00:23:59,636 Speaker 1: not liberal in the sense of Leney to be vote 411 00:23:59,636 --> 00:24:02,276 Speaker 1: that's not on the cards, No, I think something like 412 00:24:02,756 --> 00:24:06,196 Speaker 1: I mean, what he wants is to replace Islam with 413 00:24:06,316 --> 00:24:10,676 Speaker 1: nationalism and populism. He wants something similar to let's say 414 00:24:10,756 --> 00:24:13,436 Speaker 1: Russia or China, you know, in terms of a political 415 00:24:13,476 --> 00:24:17,156 Speaker 1: model where Saudi's care about being you know, Saudi's and 416 00:24:17,196 --> 00:24:20,556 Speaker 1: don't care about Wahabism and don't want to spend money 417 00:24:20,636 --> 00:24:23,676 Speaker 1: on building mosques overseas and that sort of thing. So 418 00:24:23,756 --> 00:24:27,676 Speaker 1: he he's interested in changing the very kind of nature 419 00:24:27,676 --> 00:24:32,116 Speaker 1: of society and the allegiances of people. So that's the 420 00:24:32,676 --> 00:24:35,076 Speaker 1: attractive might be the wrong word, but that's the kind 421 00:24:35,076 --> 00:24:39,636 Speaker 1: of defensible, reasonable, understandable, reformist face as it were, of MBS. 422 00:24:39,996 --> 00:24:42,476 Speaker 1: And yet at the same time he's come to be 423 00:24:42,516 --> 00:24:47,196 Speaker 1: seen internationally as being very brutal in the process of 424 00:24:47,236 --> 00:24:49,476 Speaker 1: doing this. And a crucial event in this was the 425 00:24:50,156 --> 00:24:54,956 Speaker 1: murderer of someone whom we both knew, a Jamaashoji, a 426 00:24:55,036 --> 00:25:00,876 Speaker 1: Saudi himself from a prominent Saudi family. Super upsetting to 427 00:25:00,996 --> 00:25:04,156 Speaker 1: many people who knew knew Jamaal Like yes, like like 428 00:25:04,236 --> 00:25:08,876 Speaker 1: you and me talk a little bit about why that happened, 429 00:25:09,476 --> 00:25:11,636 Speaker 1: and how we can try to make sense of it 430 00:25:11,916 --> 00:25:14,396 Speaker 1: in light of the other objectives that Mohammed been Sama 431 00:25:14,516 --> 00:25:20,716 Speaker 1: is pursuing. So I think, you know, Jamal represented in 432 00:25:20,756 --> 00:25:25,156 Speaker 1: a way the old order, and Jamal himself, as you said, 433 00:25:25,196 --> 00:25:27,836 Speaker 1: I knew him. I've invited him to Princeton and he's 434 00:25:27,876 --> 00:25:30,356 Speaker 1: spoken there, and I've known him since the late nineteen nineties. 435 00:25:30,396 --> 00:25:36,116 Speaker 1: And but Jamal was seen as an Islamist by the regime, 436 00:25:36,396 --> 00:25:40,396 Speaker 1: and he was seen as closer to Erduan in Turkey 437 00:25:40,556 --> 00:25:45,076 Speaker 1: and to the Kataris, and that he wanted, unlike MBS, 438 00:25:45,156 --> 00:25:48,156 Speaker 1: for that alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood to be maintained. 439 00:25:48,436 --> 00:25:53,396 Speaker 1: That Saudi Arabia could not reform politically or socially without 440 00:25:53,436 --> 00:25:56,036 Speaker 1: that alliance with the Islamists. It's a longer story for 441 00:25:56,156 --> 00:25:58,836 Speaker 1: another conversation maybe we can have in the future. People, 442 00:25:58,996 --> 00:26:01,156 Speaker 1: especially in the US, hear the word Islamist and think 443 00:26:01,636 --> 00:26:04,236 Speaker 1: that somebody who is a jihadi or a radical, but 444 00:26:04,276 --> 00:26:06,436 Speaker 1: that's yeah, no, often not the case. It was certainly 445 00:26:06,476 --> 00:26:09,436 Speaker 1: not the case for yeah, Jamal. He's more of a 446 00:26:09,436 --> 00:26:12,276 Speaker 1: trend of the last quarter century where many members of 447 00:26:12,276 --> 00:26:15,036 Speaker 1: the Muslim Brotherhood came to embrace at least some of 448 00:26:15,036 --> 00:26:18,356 Speaker 1: the goals of democracy, Yes, and wanted to democratize a 449 00:26:18,356 --> 00:26:22,636 Speaker 1: place like Saudi Arabias and liked the aspiration. It hasn't 450 00:26:22,636 --> 00:26:25,196 Speaker 1: worked out so well in Turkey, but the aspiration at 451 00:26:25,236 --> 00:26:27,556 Speaker 1: least of a democratic regime that was still Islamic and 452 00:26:27,596 --> 00:26:30,796 Speaker 1: its orientation. Yes, And you know, lots of people thought 453 00:26:30,796 --> 00:26:32,796 Speaker 1: that's what should happen in Egypt after the Arab Spring. 454 00:26:32,836 --> 00:26:36,036 Speaker 1: It didn't work out so well there either, But so 455 00:26:36,236 --> 00:26:38,916 Speaker 1: it's just important to clarify that what might have looked 456 00:26:38,916 --> 00:26:42,796 Speaker 1: like a threat to Mohammed bin Salman might not have 457 00:26:42,836 --> 00:26:45,516 Speaker 1: been a threat when viewed from the standpoint say of democracy. Yes, 458 00:26:45,716 --> 00:26:49,756 Speaker 1: absolutely correct. And Jamal I mean Jamal basically wanted Saudi 459 00:26:49,796 --> 00:26:53,956 Speaker 1: Arabia to become more democratic and that clashed with MBS's 460 00:26:54,116 --> 00:26:57,476 Speaker 1: vision of the strong man who's going to use nationalism 461 00:26:57,476 --> 00:27:00,836 Speaker 1: and populism and move away from Islamism. Then why to 462 00:27:00,956 --> 00:27:04,436 Speaker 1: be blunt? Why murder him instead of just letting him 463 00:27:04,476 --> 00:27:08,396 Speaker 1: become what he already was a vocal critic from the outside, 464 00:27:08,476 --> 00:27:12,196 Speaker 1: essentially an exile. My sense is that he was seen 465 00:27:12,276 --> 00:27:14,556 Speaker 1: as a real threat because he could mobilize all the 466 00:27:14,636 --> 00:27:17,956 Speaker 1: dissidents around the world against Saudi Arabia. He was very 467 00:27:17,956 --> 00:27:21,236 Speaker 1: effective at using social media. He had a platform in 468 00:27:21,316 --> 00:27:26,076 Speaker 1: the Washington Post, and I suspect that people around MBS 469 00:27:26,116 --> 00:27:29,156 Speaker 1: went to him and said, basically, this guy is, you know, 470 00:27:29,636 --> 00:27:32,556 Speaker 1: a real menace, a real threat to the order that 471 00:27:32,596 --> 00:27:35,516 Speaker 1: you're trying to establish, and we should get rid of him. 472 00:27:36,116 --> 00:27:42,116 Speaker 1: The murder, in addition to being morally reprehensible, was a 473 00:27:42,156 --> 00:27:47,796 Speaker 1: gross miscalculation. Yes, it backfired hugely with the international community, 474 00:27:47,876 --> 00:27:51,596 Speaker 1: especially journalists and academics, the kind of people whom Jamal 475 00:27:51,676 --> 00:27:55,276 Speaker 1: knew all over the world, really turning on MBS in 476 00:27:55,316 --> 00:27:57,596 Speaker 1: a way that at an emotional level I experience as 477 00:27:57,836 --> 00:28:00,436 Speaker 1: hard to get beyond myself. Yes, you know, I myself 478 00:28:00,476 --> 00:28:05,956 Speaker 1: feel frustrated with him, angry at him because of because 479 00:28:05,956 --> 00:28:09,396 Speaker 1: he killed my friend. You know, the people around him 480 00:28:09,516 --> 00:28:14,156 Speaker 1: were so arrogant because of their success domestically at taming 481 00:28:14,196 --> 00:28:17,076 Speaker 1: all dissidents in opposition that they felt that they can 482 00:28:17,116 --> 00:28:21,316 Speaker 1: do this also overseas, and I think that people definitely 483 00:28:21,396 --> 00:28:25,316 Speaker 1: in the Kingdom around MBS, and he himself feels that 484 00:28:25,356 --> 00:28:27,876 Speaker 1: it was a mistake visa via the West. I'm not 485 00:28:27,916 --> 00:28:31,756 Speaker 1: sure though, if you're looking at Saudi dissidents around the world. 486 00:28:32,196 --> 00:28:33,996 Speaker 1: And if you can show that, you can get one 487 00:28:34,036 --> 00:28:38,476 Speaker 1: of them in Turkey under the rule of Erduan, who 488 00:28:38,516 --> 00:28:41,276 Speaker 1: is the personal friend of that dissident. If you can 489 00:28:41,316 --> 00:28:43,756 Speaker 1: get to that guy, they can get to almost anyone. 490 00:28:44,036 --> 00:28:46,436 Speaker 1: So as for the rest of the dissidents is we 491 00:28:46,476 --> 00:28:48,236 Speaker 1: can get you no matter where you are, you can't 492 00:28:48,276 --> 00:28:50,276 Speaker 1: run you. Yeah, it's a kind of putent like message 493 00:28:50,516 --> 00:28:53,836 Speaker 1: right to dissidents, So you know they might not regret 494 00:28:53,876 --> 00:28:55,996 Speaker 1: it in that regard, maybe not to blowback, yes, maybe 495 00:28:56,036 --> 00:29:01,036 Speaker 1: not stay a little bit about MBS himself and you 496 00:29:01,076 --> 00:29:04,196 Speaker 1: know him, Yes, As I work in Saudi Arabia, I 497 00:29:04,236 --> 00:29:06,956 Speaker 1: knew a number of people who are around him, around MBS, 498 00:29:07,076 --> 00:29:09,716 Speaker 1: and one of them once contacted me and said, you know, 499 00:29:09,796 --> 00:29:12,076 Speaker 1: the Prince has seen a piece that you've written and 500 00:29:12,356 --> 00:29:14,036 Speaker 1: would like to meet with you. This was a time 501 00:29:14,076 --> 00:29:17,996 Speaker 1: when he was trying to cultivate Americans and American elites, 502 00:29:18,396 --> 00:29:21,996 Speaker 1: and so I met with him, and you know, we 503 00:29:22,116 --> 00:29:25,636 Speaker 1: chatted in Arabic. And my impression of him is that he, 504 00:29:26,316 --> 00:29:30,756 Speaker 1: you know, he's very charismatic. He has facts and figures, 505 00:29:30,796 --> 00:29:33,676 Speaker 1: you know, at his fingertips about all kinds of things. 506 00:29:33,676 --> 00:29:35,756 Speaker 1: So there's kind of like a you know, a genius 507 00:29:35,836 --> 00:29:39,316 Speaker 1: like quality in that he can give you, like rattle 508 00:29:39,356 --> 00:29:42,556 Speaker 1: off numbers and data about almost anything to do with 509 00:29:42,596 --> 00:29:46,236 Speaker 1: the kingdom. And then he also pays real close attention 510 00:29:46,276 --> 00:29:48,236 Speaker 1: to what you're saying, so he gives you the feeling 511 00:29:48,316 --> 00:29:50,996 Speaker 1: that you know, he really cares. So he's a politician's 512 00:29:51,076 --> 00:29:53,476 Speaker 1: politician and a skilled one's a very skilled one comes 513 00:29:53,476 --> 00:29:55,276 Speaker 1: across a very yeah, and he's you know, he's saying, 514 00:29:55,356 --> 00:29:57,716 Speaker 1: impress the Trump administry. That's right. And he charmed also, 515 00:29:57,916 --> 00:30:00,716 Speaker 1: you know, Michael Bloomberg and all kinds of people you 516 00:30:00,716 --> 00:30:03,916 Speaker 1: know around around the country, Tom Friedman, you know, David Ignatius, 517 00:30:03,956 --> 00:30:06,156 Speaker 1: all kinds of people were charmed by, many of whom 518 00:30:06,156 --> 00:30:08,876 Speaker 1: are skeptical people in general. That's right. And you know, 519 00:30:09,436 --> 00:30:11,356 Speaker 1: I think he had the advantage of the fact that 520 00:30:11,396 --> 00:30:14,076 Speaker 1: he was so different from these older rulers of Saudi 521 00:30:14,076 --> 00:30:17,476 Speaker 1: Arabia who just seemed like, um, you know, clones of 522 00:30:17,556 --> 00:30:19,876 Speaker 1: these old Soviets. You know, you remember in the old 523 00:30:19,916 --> 00:30:22,436 Speaker 1: days with Andropoff and Bregnev and all these guys, you know, 524 00:30:22,516 --> 00:30:26,196 Speaker 1: the Politburo who just seemed like dead men walking, you know, 525 00:30:26,276 --> 00:30:28,916 Speaker 1: dead men walking. And he is just a breath of 526 00:30:28,956 --> 00:30:31,316 Speaker 1: fresh air in the sense that he talks and wants 527 00:30:31,316 --> 00:30:33,596 Speaker 1: to change and wants to liberalize and so on. So 528 00:30:33,796 --> 00:30:37,276 Speaker 1: there's there's a kind of attractive quality to him because 529 00:30:37,316 --> 00:30:39,476 Speaker 1: of that. But at the same time, there's a toughness 530 00:30:39,516 --> 00:30:42,316 Speaker 1: to him, and I think that's actually probably why he 531 00:30:42,356 --> 00:30:45,516 Speaker 1: was chosen by his dad. How do you, as someone 532 00:30:45,556 --> 00:30:48,116 Speaker 1: who's an observer of the region, a scholar of the region, 533 00:30:48,796 --> 00:30:52,796 Speaker 1: how do you internally balance and find your own ethical 534 00:30:52,836 --> 00:30:57,836 Speaker 1: compass in dealing with somebody who is in many ways dynamic, extraordinary, 535 00:30:57,956 --> 00:31:02,796 Speaker 1: a genuine reformer and also capable of you know, dropping 536 00:31:02,796 --> 00:31:06,396 Speaker 1: a diamond killing somebody. So you know, he he's an 537 00:31:06,436 --> 00:31:09,076 Speaker 1: object of researcher for me. I mean it's like, you know, 538 00:31:09,156 --> 00:31:10,636 Speaker 1: I go to the Middle East, and I go to 539 00:31:10,636 --> 00:31:12,796 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, and I talk to people who hate him 540 00:31:12,836 --> 00:31:17,916 Speaker 1: inside the royal family, dissidents, you know, EXTI hottest journalist, liberals, women, 541 00:31:18,276 --> 00:31:20,996 Speaker 1: And he's just one of the many people that I 542 00:31:21,076 --> 00:31:23,596 Speaker 1: engage with to learn as much as I can about 543 00:31:23,596 --> 00:31:27,196 Speaker 1: the country. And so I think of my engagement with 544 00:31:27,276 --> 00:31:30,596 Speaker 1: him inasmuch as it will continue as just part of research. 545 00:31:31,196 --> 00:31:33,636 Speaker 1: You know, now, if he asks me, you know, what 546 00:31:33,756 --> 00:31:35,476 Speaker 1: do I think about x or Y. I just tell 547 00:31:35,516 --> 00:31:38,436 Speaker 1: him what I think, you know, So I haven't sort 548 00:31:38,436 --> 00:31:40,876 Speaker 1: of held back on telling him that, you know, killing 549 00:31:40,956 --> 00:31:44,076 Speaker 1: Jamal is a terrible thing and a crime, and someone 550 00:31:44,076 --> 00:31:47,516 Speaker 1: should pay for it. I haven't stopped from telling him that, 551 00:31:47,596 --> 00:31:49,516 Speaker 1: you know, if he tries to build an alliance with 552 00:31:49,556 --> 00:31:52,876 Speaker 1: the Chinese or the Russians and move away from the West, 553 00:31:53,076 --> 00:31:55,596 Speaker 1: that that would be a terrible strategic error for the 554 00:31:55,756 --> 00:31:58,076 Speaker 1: for his country. I tell him that, you know, the 555 00:31:58,156 --> 00:32:01,356 Speaker 1: dissidents should be released, all dissidents, not just the women, 556 00:32:01,836 --> 00:32:05,836 Speaker 1: because you know, writing in social media criticism is not 557 00:32:05,996 --> 00:32:09,916 Speaker 1: criminal and will never be understood as criminal in the West. 558 00:32:10,636 --> 00:32:13,076 Speaker 1: And I mean, I've had this experience myself, so I'm 559 00:32:13,116 --> 00:32:14,796 Speaker 1: not asking you something that I wouldn't I haven't asked 560 00:32:14,836 --> 00:32:16,996 Speaker 1: myself a thousand times as well. But what do you 561 00:32:17,036 --> 00:32:20,196 Speaker 1: say when people tell you, Look, that's all well and 562 00:32:20,196 --> 00:32:22,036 Speaker 1: good to think of someone as an object of research, 563 00:32:22,076 --> 00:32:24,236 Speaker 1: But if you're in conversation, you know, if you're having 564 00:32:24,436 --> 00:32:26,876 Speaker 1: a late night text exchange with the Crown Prince of 565 00:32:26,876 --> 00:32:30,156 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, you know you're helping him in some way. 566 00:32:30,356 --> 00:32:33,956 Speaker 1: You're engaged with power. And if you're giving him a 567 00:32:33,956 --> 00:32:36,476 Speaker 1: good advice. That's good advice that he'll use to achieve 568 00:32:36,596 --> 00:32:40,276 Speaker 1: his ends, whatever they are. And so that that line drawing, 569 00:32:40,276 --> 00:32:43,076 Speaker 1: which is very hard for any any engaged scholar to do, 570 00:32:43,556 --> 00:32:46,316 Speaker 1: is is too hard to defend against and better to 571 00:32:46,556 --> 00:32:47,996 Speaker 1: better to keep a distance. What do you what do 572 00:32:48,036 --> 00:32:51,476 Speaker 1: you say when people people say that too? I mean, 573 00:32:52,716 --> 00:32:54,556 Speaker 1: I think that as long as I feel that I 574 00:32:54,596 --> 00:32:57,196 Speaker 1: haven't done something wrong or helped him do something wrong, 575 00:32:57,316 --> 00:33:02,316 Speaker 1: which I haven't done, yeah, I don't feel compromised. Yeah. 576 00:33:02,356 --> 00:33:04,196 Speaker 1: I mean if he asked me to do something, that's 577 00:33:04,196 --> 00:33:06,796 Speaker 1: a different that's a different matter. I mean I should 578 00:33:06,796 --> 00:33:09,396 Speaker 1: say for myself, I have felt compromised. You know, leave 579 00:33:09,396 --> 00:33:11,836 Speaker 1: aside Muhammed bin Sama. You know, I worked with the 580 00:33:11,956 --> 00:33:15,556 Speaker 1: US government in Iraq working on the constitutional process there, 581 00:33:15,876 --> 00:33:17,996 Speaker 1: and you know I had then and still have lots 582 00:33:18,036 --> 00:33:21,036 Speaker 1: of criticisms of the way the United States government operated. 583 00:33:21,316 --> 00:33:23,436 Speaker 1: But I was, you know, I was fully part of 584 00:33:23,436 --> 00:33:27,996 Speaker 1: a US occupation regime and the the ethical errors and 585 00:33:28,156 --> 00:33:32,316 Speaker 1: the crimes that that you know, government backed, you know 586 00:33:32,316 --> 00:33:34,996 Speaker 1: that the United States committed there. I have to bear 587 00:33:35,036 --> 00:33:37,676 Speaker 1: some ethical obligation and responsibility for that. But that's a 588 00:33:37,676 --> 00:33:39,956 Speaker 1: little different because that's my own country and you're you're 589 00:33:39,956 --> 00:33:43,196 Speaker 1: talking also you accept I mean you also agreed to 590 00:33:43,596 --> 00:33:46,156 Speaker 1: you know, formal capacity to take a job, right, So 591 00:33:46,196 --> 00:33:48,356 Speaker 1: I'm not taking really different Yeah, I'm not taking job. 592 00:33:48,436 --> 00:33:51,436 Speaker 1: I mean for me, it's a way of understanding the 593 00:33:51,476 --> 00:33:56,636 Speaker 1: system so much more in the country, so much better. Yeah. Yeah, 594 00:33:56,796 --> 00:34:00,636 Speaker 1: Just to close, where's it all going? You know, revolutions 595 00:34:01,756 --> 00:34:06,596 Speaker 1: look impressive when they're going well. So this revolution seems 596 00:34:06,676 --> 00:34:11,636 Speaker 1: to be succeeding. What are the risks and what are 597 00:34:11,676 --> 00:34:15,236 Speaker 1: your predictions about whether it will ultimately succeed? Right, So 598 00:34:15,836 --> 00:34:18,476 Speaker 1: for me, the idea of success here is whether Saudi 599 00:34:18,476 --> 00:34:22,356 Speaker 1: Arabia will be able to transition to an economy that 600 00:34:22,596 --> 00:34:26,156 Speaker 1: is prosperous and that delivers for its people beyond the 601 00:34:26,196 --> 00:34:28,876 Speaker 1: age of oil. That is a very difficult thing to 602 00:34:28,916 --> 00:34:31,476 Speaker 1: do because essentially what you have in Saudi Arabia is 603 00:34:31,476 --> 00:34:34,116 Speaker 1: a nanny state that uses the oil revenues and then 604 00:34:34,156 --> 00:34:38,036 Speaker 1: redistributes it to the population. And that's an unsustainable model, 605 00:34:38,356 --> 00:34:42,756 Speaker 1: and it also creates certain pathologies in terms of people 606 00:34:43,036 --> 00:34:45,836 Speaker 1: expecting jobs from the government, not wanting to work in 607 00:34:45,876 --> 00:34:47,876 Speaker 1: the private sector, and so on. So I think the 608 00:34:47,956 --> 00:34:52,836 Speaker 1: economic challenge is the most serious one, and I'm doubtful 609 00:34:53,156 --> 00:34:56,716 Speaker 1: as to whether that's possible insider Arabia or anywhere else, 610 00:34:56,796 --> 00:35:01,956 Speaker 1: given the volume of money that gets generated and gets redistributed. 611 00:35:02,596 --> 00:35:04,436 Speaker 1: I should add one last thing, which is that if 612 00:35:04,436 --> 00:35:08,036 Speaker 1: he doesn't deliver, if MBS doesn't deliver on his promises 613 00:35:08,076 --> 00:35:12,076 Speaker 1: of economic reform and eventually of political reform, there will 614 00:35:12,116 --> 00:35:15,716 Speaker 1: be social mobilization. The people will mobilize in the streets 615 00:35:15,756 --> 00:35:18,356 Speaker 1: like they have in Egypt and in other places, and 616 00:35:18,396 --> 00:35:23,836 Speaker 1: will make demands for more, greater accountability, greater participation in 617 00:35:24,156 --> 00:35:27,276 Speaker 1: the government. Well, when that starts to happen, we'll have 618 00:35:27,396 --> 00:35:29,556 Speaker 1: you back and we'll talk about it. Bernie, thank you 619 00:35:29,596 --> 00:35:32,396 Speaker 1: so much for a fascinating, fascinating conversation. I look forward 620 00:35:32,436 --> 00:35:34,036 Speaker 1: to talking more with you about these things, and I 621 00:35:34,076 --> 00:35:35,516 Speaker 1: hope you'll come back and talk to us on de 622 00:35:35,676 --> 00:35:44,796 Speaker 1: background again. Thank you. What does it mean for the 623 00:35:44,836 --> 00:35:47,876 Speaker 1: future of US Saudi relations that the United States has 624 00:35:47,996 --> 00:35:51,796 Speaker 1: deployed troops to Saudi Arabia for the first time in years. 625 00:35:52,396 --> 00:35:55,476 Speaker 1: Does that decision increase the chances of our broader war 626 00:35:55,556 --> 00:35:58,396 Speaker 1: in the Middle East? Well, one thing is for certain, 627 00:35:58,996 --> 00:36:02,796 Speaker 1: US Saudi relations close for more than half a century 628 00:36:02,956 --> 00:36:07,476 Speaker 1: are getting closer by the day. Donald Trump sees Saudi 629 00:36:07,476 --> 00:36:11,796 Speaker 1: Arabia as the lynchpin in a broader regional alliance against Iran. 630 00:36:12,476 --> 00:36:15,716 Speaker 1: Israel agrees with that position, and Donald Trump has worked 631 00:36:15,716 --> 00:36:17,876 Speaker 1: hard to try to bring the Saudias and the Israelis 632 00:36:17,876 --> 00:36:22,436 Speaker 1: closer together again on the access of being against Iran. 633 00:36:23,556 --> 00:36:28,396 Speaker 1: Saudi oil remains crucial to the economy of Europe and therefore, 634 00:36:28,396 --> 00:36:31,276 Speaker 1: by extension, to the broader oil markets. Even as the 635 00:36:31,316 --> 00:36:34,516 Speaker 1: amount of oil the US produces has gone up, and 636 00:36:34,596 --> 00:36:38,476 Speaker 1: as long as the world remains dependent on oil, Saudi 637 00:36:38,516 --> 00:36:42,676 Speaker 1: Arabia is going to remain a crucial strategic player. That 638 00:36:42,796 --> 00:36:46,116 Speaker 1: means the US Saudi relationship is likely to stay close 639 00:36:46,516 --> 00:36:49,716 Speaker 1: even if someone else replaces Donald Trump as President of 640 00:36:49,756 --> 00:36:54,956 Speaker 1: the United States. Over time, if Saudi Arabia actually reforms 641 00:36:55,356 --> 00:36:58,036 Speaker 1: under Muhammad bin Salman, that is likely to bring the 642 00:36:58,036 --> 00:37:02,836 Speaker 1: Saudis and the Americans closer still together. Of course, closeness 643 00:37:02,876 --> 00:37:05,116 Speaker 1: between countries like the US and Saudi Araba is not 644 00:37:05,236 --> 00:37:07,876 Speaker 1: necessarily the same thing as the United States going to 645 00:37:07,916 --> 00:37:10,996 Speaker 1: war on behalf of the Saudi Right now, we know 646 00:37:11,156 --> 00:37:14,516 Speaker 1: the Saudis don't want warorth Iran. The Israelis don't want 647 00:37:14,516 --> 00:37:17,516 Speaker 1: warworthy Iran, and Donald Trump doesn't want war worth Iran. 648 00:37:17,996 --> 00:37:21,436 Speaker 1: So for the moment, expect the relationship between the Saudist, 649 00:37:21,436 --> 00:37:24,476 Speaker 1: the Israelis, and the Americans to get deeper. But watch 650 00:37:24,596 --> 00:37:27,956 Speaker 1: closely to see if Saudi Arabia is able to make 651 00:37:27,956 --> 00:37:31,876 Speaker 1: the internal reforms that will strengthen its ties to United States. 652 00:37:38,556 --> 00:37:42,796 Speaker 1: Now for our very remarkable sound of the week, the 653 00:37:42,836 --> 00:37:46,956 Speaker 1: actions of the Trump presidency revealed dishonorable fact of the 654 00:37:46,996 --> 00:37:50,756 Speaker 1: President's betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our 655 00:37:50,876 --> 00:37:56,236 Speaker 1: national security, and betrayal of the integrity of our elections. Therefore, 656 00:37:56,396 --> 00:38:00,036 Speaker 1: today I'm announcing the House of Represents moving forward with 657 00:38:00,116 --> 00:38:04,636 Speaker 1: an official impeachment inquiry. That, of course, was how Speaker 658 00:38:04,716 --> 00:38:09,676 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday announcing that an impeachment inquiry against 659 00:38:09,716 --> 00:38:14,436 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump is going to go forward. There's no 660 00:38:14,476 --> 00:38:16,716 Speaker 1: way to avoid the sense that we are at a 661 00:38:16,796 --> 00:38:20,956 Speaker 1: historic moment in the history of the United States. It's 662 00:38:20,956 --> 00:38:24,836 Speaker 1: not that we haven't had impeachment inquiries before. Andrew Johnson 663 00:38:24,916 --> 00:38:28,356 Speaker 1: was impeached but ultimately not convicted by the Senate. The 664 00:38:28,396 --> 00:38:31,316 Speaker 1: same was true for Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon never got 665 00:38:31,356 --> 00:38:33,996 Speaker 1: to the point of being impeached because he quit. But 666 00:38:34,076 --> 00:38:37,316 Speaker 1: that is a tiny number of instances where the House 667 00:38:37,356 --> 00:38:39,836 Speaker 1: of Representatives has come to the point where it is 668 00:38:39,956 --> 00:38:44,516 Speaker 1: preparing to issue articles of impeachment against a sitting president. 669 00:38:45,196 --> 00:38:49,156 Speaker 1: What's most remarkable about this instance and what differentiates it 670 00:38:49,196 --> 00:38:52,396 Speaker 1: from the previous three examples, is at this time it's 671 00:38:52,476 --> 00:38:55,716 Speaker 1: all about interactions between the president of the United States 672 00:38:55,836 --> 00:38:59,916 Speaker 1: and foreign powers. That's how it started with the Muller investigation. 673 00:39:00,196 --> 00:39:02,516 Speaker 1: But it seemed when that investigation came to an end 674 00:39:02,676 --> 00:39:05,636 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump had somehow dodged the bullet that he 675 00:39:05,676 --> 00:39:08,396 Speaker 1: had managed to emphasize the part of the Muller report 676 00:39:08,436 --> 00:39:11,396 Speaker 1: that said there was not sufficient evidence of collusion in 677 00:39:11,436 --> 00:39:14,796 Speaker 1: the twenty sixteen campaign between him and the Russians, and 678 00:39:14,876 --> 00:39:17,676 Speaker 1: to de emphasize the parts of the report that emphasized 679 00:39:17,716 --> 00:39:22,236 Speaker 1: obstruction of justice. What's changed is the revelation that a 680 00:39:22,316 --> 00:39:26,996 Speaker 1: phone conversation occurred between Trump and Voladimir Zelenko, the president 681 00:39:26,996 --> 00:39:31,836 Speaker 1: of Ukraine, in which Trump actively requested, as a favor 682 00:39:32,076 --> 00:39:35,276 Speaker 1: Trump's word, for the President of Ukraine to commence an 683 00:39:35,276 --> 00:39:40,516 Speaker 1: investigation of Joe Biden, who, not by coincidence, is Donald 684 00:39:40,556 --> 00:39:45,876 Speaker 1: Trump's leading opponent going into the twenty twenty campaign. What 685 00:39:45,996 --> 00:39:49,316 Speaker 1: would it mean in historical terms for the House of 686 00:39:49,356 --> 00:39:55,076 Speaker 1: Representatives to impeach a president for effectively asking the assistance 687 00:39:55,156 --> 00:40:00,916 Speaker 1: of a foreign power to subvert our democratic elections. The 688 00:40:00,996 --> 00:40:05,436 Speaker 1: answer is that, if proven, such allegations amount to a 689 00:40:05,596 --> 00:40:10,556 Speaker 1: serious attempt to undercut the independence and sovereignty of the 690 00:40:10,636 --> 00:40:15,076 Speaker 1: United States as a republic of its own. To be 691 00:40:15,236 --> 00:40:18,636 Speaker 1: very clear, we are not talking here merely about an 692 00:40:18,676 --> 00:40:22,956 Speaker 1: attempt within the United States to distort electoral outcomes. We're 693 00:40:22,996 --> 00:40:26,756 Speaker 1: not talking about breaking into the Democratic National Committee's headquarters 694 00:40:26,876 --> 00:40:29,876 Speaker 1: the way Richard Nixon had the Watergate burglers do. No, 695 00:40:30,116 --> 00:40:34,276 Speaker 1: we are talking about calling on an outside power to 696 00:40:34,356 --> 00:40:37,516 Speaker 1: take some role in attempting to effect the outcome of 697 00:40:37,516 --> 00:40:42,356 Speaker 1: the US election. Remarkably and astonishingly, the current allegation is 698 00:40:42,356 --> 00:40:45,596 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump in fact attempted to do using Ukraine 699 00:40:46,076 --> 00:40:49,236 Speaker 1: what there was not evidence that he did with Russia, namely, 700 00:40:49,276 --> 00:40:52,436 Speaker 1: to collude with them in a process design to effect 701 00:40:52,476 --> 00:40:55,556 Speaker 1: the outcome of a US election. And this time we're 702 00:40:55,556 --> 00:40:58,916 Speaker 1: finding out about it before the elections even taken place. 703 00:40:59,836 --> 00:41:02,476 Speaker 1: Now there's a lot more to find out about the details, 704 00:41:02,636 --> 00:41:05,356 Speaker 1: and they're sure to be denials by Donald Trump and 705 00:41:05,396 --> 00:41:08,796 Speaker 1: by Republicans. There's no guarantee that Trump will be impeached, 706 00:41:09,116 --> 00:41:11,076 Speaker 1: and there's no guarantee that if he is impeached, he 707 00:41:11,116 --> 00:41:13,996 Speaker 1: will be removed by the Senate. Indeed, that seems like 708 00:41:14,036 --> 00:41:18,076 Speaker 1: it would be a very tough road to travel. Nevertheless, 709 00:41:18,236 --> 00:41:21,636 Speaker 1: the mere fact of the allegations, coupled with the opening 710 00:41:21,876 --> 00:41:26,596 Speaker 1: of the impeachment inquiry, signals that we are at a remarkable, unusual, 711 00:41:26,956 --> 00:41:31,956 Speaker 1: indeed astounding moment in US history. If you ask me, 712 00:41:32,036 --> 00:41:34,276 Speaker 1: what would the founding fathers have said? I think they 713 00:41:34,276 --> 00:41:36,636 Speaker 1: would have looked at us and said, we warned you 714 00:41:36,716 --> 00:41:39,876 Speaker 1: this could happen. We gave you an impeachment process in 715 00:41:39,956 --> 00:41:42,796 Speaker 1: order to deal with it. The future of the Republic 716 00:41:43,036 --> 00:41:46,796 Speaker 1: is in your hands, not ours. If we mess it up, 717 00:41:47,076 --> 00:41:49,836 Speaker 1: we won't be able to blame people who lived two 718 00:41:49,916 --> 00:41:57,196 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty years ago. It'll be on us. Deep 719 00:41:57,236 --> 00:42:00,316 Speaker 1: background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our producer 720 00:42:00,396 --> 00:42:03,276 Speaker 1: is Lydia Gene Coott, with engineering by Jason Gambrell and 721 00:42:03,396 --> 00:42:07,276 Speaker 1: Jason Rostkowski. Our showrunner is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme music 722 00:42:07,356 --> 00:42:10,596 Speaker 1: is composed by Luis GERA special thanks to the Pushkin Brass, 723 00:42:10,796 --> 00:42:14,636 Speaker 1: Malcolm Gladwell, Jacob Weisberg, and Mia Lobel. I'm Noah Feldman. 724 00:42:14,756 --> 00:42:17,276 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at Noah R Feldman. 725 00:42:17,636 --> 00:42:18,996 Speaker 1: This is deep background