WEBVTT - Is There Really A Crisis of Masculinity? 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:29.284 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:29.364 --> 0:00:32.004 better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova. 0:00:31.764 --> 0:00:32.764 And I'm Nate Silker. 0:00:32.964 --> 0:00:35.004 So today on the show, we've got a fun one 0:00:35.044 --> 0:00:38.004 for you. We'll be playing a game that we've played 0:00:38.004 --> 0:00:41.484 on the show before, Good Call, Bad Call, and we're 0:00:41.524 --> 0:00:44.924 going to be starting up by talking about wealthiest man 0:00:44.964 --> 0:00:48.004 in the world, Elon Musk, who's about to become even 0:00:48.244 --> 0:00:52.644 wealthier because Tesla has given him quite the compensation package. 0:00:52.684 --> 0:00:54.684 So we'll discuss whether that's a good call or a 0:00:54.684 --> 0:00:55.124 bad call. 0:00:55.324 --> 0:00:59.644 And we'll be talking about the purported crisis of masculinity. 0:01:00.044 --> 0:01:04.644 I am trying not to add skeptical inflection to my voice. 0:01:04.684 --> 0:01:07.004 In fact, as we'll hear, you know, I don't think 0:01:07.044 --> 0:01:09.404 there's any particularly good reason to be skeptical, but maybe 0:01:09.244 --> 0:01:14.764 maybe Aria disagree. We'll have a fun segment, I predict. 0:01:21.324 --> 0:01:24.924 All right, Nate, le let's get into it. But before 0:01:24.924 --> 0:01:26.884 we do, I want to welcome you back to the 0:01:27.004 --> 0:01:28.084 United States. 0:01:28.684 --> 0:01:30.924 Thank you. No, I mean I if I had learned 0:01:31.404 --> 0:01:34.324 a word of Norwegian or Finnish, I would greet you 0:01:34.364 --> 0:01:36.684 in that language, but they're very fluent in English, and 0:01:36.724 --> 0:01:38.524 so it was not necessary to be honest. 0:01:40.884 --> 0:01:43.044 You and I were both abroad, but I came back 0:01:43.084 --> 0:01:45.884 a week before you from Barcelona, and you were in 0:01:46.164 --> 0:01:49.284 northern Europe. Was summer over in northern Europe. 0:01:49.884 --> 0:01:56.084 It was quite pleasantly temperate. I was in Norway. Saw 0:01:56.164 --> 0:01:58.604 some fjords, pretty good fucking fjords. 0:01:58.684 --> 0:01:58.804 Right. 0:01:58.884 --> 0:02:00.844 The first day we kind of drove around. We're like, oh, 0:02:00.884 --> 0:02:03.804 this is nice. Looks like Maine or something, right, And 0:02:03.844 --> 0:02:06.284 then the next day we took a fucking cruise on 0:02:06.364 --> 0:02:10.244 the real fjords. One of the most spectacular natural things 0:02:10.284 --> 0:02:12.844 I've ever seen. Hawaii is up there, but you know, 0:02:12.924 --> 0:02:17.244 top top three in terms of things that will hopefully 0:02:17.404 --> 0:02:20.604 outlast the human race. That sounds pessimistic, but you know 0:02:20.604 --> 0:02:22.404 what I mean, right, Eternal, I do know what. 0:02:22.444 --> 0:02:26.204 You mean, and I do I hope they outlast as well, 0:02:26.284 --> 0:02:28.684 and I hope that they last long enough at least 0:02:28.684 --> 0:02:30.604 for me to see them, because those are one that's 0:02:30.604 --> 0:02:32.404 one of the things that I've never seen that I 0:02:32.404 --> 0:02:34.084 would love to see one of these days. 0:02:34.364 --> 0:02:38.164 Then, since sent some time in Helsinki, Finland, you can 0:02:38.204 --> 0:02:41.404 tell I have some pronouncing it Helsinki, not Helsinki, which 0:02:41.404 --> 0:02:45.724 is how uneducated Americans say, very nice town, great food, 0:02:45.724 --> 0:02:48.244 which I wasn't expecting. And then Amsterdam. 0:02:47.804 --> 0:02:52.484 Briefly, where there's also delicious food. Hmm, you didn't agree. 0:02:52.764 --> 0:02:55.404 No, I think I like Amsterdam and Robbie and I 0:02:55.444 --> 0:02:57.964 have some friends there. I have visited a number of times, 0:02:58.084 --> 0:03:01.884 had a great visit. I think Amsterdam is pound for 0:03:02.204 --> 0:03:03.524 one of the worst food cities. 0:03:04.444 --> 0:03:05.164 Huh. 0:03:05.244 --> 0:03:07.524 And it's good like Nipalese and stuff, there's good. It's 0:03:08.164 --> 0:03:12.764 mixed at Nikolie right uh. And so like you know, 0:03:12.884 --> 0:03:15.924 the international food's good, but the Dutch food, the continental food, 0:03:15.964 --> 0:03:17.044 I know. 0:03:17.284 --> 0:03:18.644 So. So I think this is where you and I 0:03:18.724 --> 0:03:21.764 kind of differ because someone as someone who grew up 0:03:21.804 --> 0:03:26.524 eating hariring, I absolutely love it. And you can get 0:03:26.564 --> 0:03:28.004 really incredible hairing. 0:03:27.844 --> 0:03:31.724 And you get hair. We took the boat, the ferry 0:03:31.804 --> 0:03:36.044 from Helsinki to Tallinn, Estonia for a day too. Pretty 0:03:36.044 --> 0:03:37.324 good fucking haring on that boat. 0:03:37.404 --> 0:03:41.684 Oh absolutely, I'm sure. I'm sure it was delicious. Well, 0:03:41.884 --> 0:03:46.364 welcome back to the United States. You were missed. I 0:03:46.444 --> 0:03:48.764 think New York missed both of us. But but now 0:03:48.764 --> 0:03:49.964 we're now we're all back. 0:03:50.284 --> 0:03:54.164 How did how did Barcelona but the Barcelona? How did 0:03:54.244 --> 0:03:55.604 Barcelona go how the epint go. 0:03:56.724 --> 0:04:00.164 It was fine. You know, it's very funny because I actually, 0:04:00.764 --> 0:04:03.924 you know, I'm normally pretty good at not cashing and 0:04:03.924 --> 0:04:06.684 then like having one big score when it comes to these. 0:04:07.044 --> 0:04:09.564 I actually cashed in I think half of my event 0:04:09.804 --> 0:04:12.364 and had no big scores, so ended down for the trip. 0:04:13.364 --> 0:04:17.484 The deepest I went was well, actually I got fourth 0:04:17.524 --> 0:04:20.804 in one event, but I missed out Nate on a 0:04:20.964 --> 0:04:25.484 thirty seven thousand euro page jump and it was really 0:04:25.564 --> 0:04:29.044 it was really heartbreaking. Had I just made it and 0:04:29.524 --> 0:04:31.244 had I lasted, and had I been in third, I 0:04:31.244 --> 0:04:33.444 would have been way up for the trip. So we 0:04:33.444 --> 0:04:36.724 were very close. And you know, we've talked on the 0:04:36.764 --> 0:04:40.004 show before about butterfly effects and how you know one 0:04:40.004 --> 0:04:44.044 thing affects another. There was a player who was the 0:04:44.044 --> 0:04:46.924 short stack, so people who don't play poker. He had 0:04:47.044 --> 0:04:51.164 the fewest chips, and it seemed pretty likely that I 0:04:51.204 --> 0:04:54.964 would end up outlasting him, and he ended up getting 0:04:55.004 --> 0:04:59.124 it all in with ACE five off suit and getting 0:04:59.124 --> 0:05:01.644 called by Ace King or actually Ace three, not ACE five, 0:05:01.724 --> 0:05:05.844 Ace three getting called by Ace King, and he hit 0:05:05.884 --> 0:05:09.084 his three and ended up doubling, and then he knocked 0:05:09.084 --> 0:05:12.244 me up out a little while later, so you know 0:05:12.324 --> 0:05:13.284 butterfly effects. 0:05:13.324 --> 0:05:15.404 It was it was a good player or bad player. 0:05:16.964 --> 0:05:21.284 Incredibly wealthy player who doesn't really care. He is capable 0:05:21.444 --> 0:05:24.524 of playing well, but at that point he was not 0:05:24.564 --> 0:05:27.364 playing well because he was kind of in and I 0:05:27.404 --> 0:05:30.484 don't give a fuck, but you guys all care about 0:05:30.484 --> 0:05:33.284 the money type of mood. He is a businessman, he's 0:05:33.284 --> 0:05:34.524 not a professional poker player. 0:05:34.684 --> 0:05:39.124 You know, sometimes people with a fucket attitude toward ICM. ICM. 0:05:39.204 --> 0:05:42.844 If you don't play poker, is the strategy the changes 0:05:42.924 --> 0:05:45.964 you make when you're trying to cash a tournament I've had, 0:05:45.964 --> 0:05:47.684 By the way, this is probably cashed a lot and 0:05:47.764 --> 0:05:50.524 nothing too exciting beyond that, right, But like, if you're 0:05:50.564 --> 0:05:52.844 really rich, though, and you just care about winning, then 0:05:52.884 --> 0:05:55.124 you don't have to play with ICM. And it's like 0:05:55.164 --> 0:05:58.004 annoying to all the other knits at the table who are. 0:05:58.844 --> 0:06:01.364 Yeah, there's a t shirt that some poker players like 0:06:01.444 --> 0:06:06.124 to wear that says ICM is for poor people. That 0:06:06.244 --> 0:06:08.924 means that people who care about the independent hip model. 0:06:08.924 --> 0:06:11.844 You know, the value of your of your chips actually 0:06:12.244 --> 0:06:17.084 changes as these huge payge ump sloom. That means you're poor. 0:06:17.804 --> 0:06:21.164 And if you can say fuck it. Sometimes that's that's 0:06:21.204 --> 0:06:23.324 the way to do it, and you know, there is 0:06:24.004 --> 0:06:27.004 It's a it's an interesting analogy kind of to to 0:06:27.244 --> 0:06:31.164 life because there are definitely moments in life where you 0:06:31.204 --> 0:06:33.644 know it pays to hang around a little bit, but 0:06:33.724 --> 0:06:35.364 sometimes you're like, ah, fuck it, I want to play 0:06:35.404 --> 0:06:36.964 to win, right like I want to I want to 0:06:37.004 --> 0:06:39.444 get I want to take a big swing. I really 0:06:39.524 --> 0:06:42.724 want to go for it. And sometimes that feels really good, 0:06:42.804 --> 0:06:46.204 even if it's not necessarily correct, and you have to 0:06:46.284 --> 0:06:48.724 just try to think, you know what, what risks? Am 0:06:48.764 --> 0:06:51.844 I willing to take? What's the reward here? Is it 0:06:51.884 --> 0:06:54.164 worth it? And am I I think this is actually 0:06:54.164 --> 0:06:57.964 really important? Am I willing to walk away? Right? Like? 0:06:58.604 --> 0:07:00.644 It's kind of like the fuck you money type of 0:07:00.924 --> 0:07:03.884 type of concept, where will I walk away? Like if 0:07:03.924 --> 0:07:07.084 this doesn't go right? And ICM as for poor people, 0:07:07.404 --> 0:07:09.844 that person says, I am willing to walk away, right, 0:07:09.924 --> 0:07:12.964 I am willing to forego you know, forty thousand dollars, 0:07:13.004 --> 0:07:16.044 four hundred thousand dollars. It doesn't matter because I'm not 0:07:16.164 --> 0:07:19.204 poor and I don't care, and you do and. 0:07:19.124 --> 0:07:21.284 Your time is valuable too, you know what I mean? 0:07:21.884 --> 0:07:25.044 I mean obviously, sometimes you're just giving up thousands of 0:07:25.124 --> 0:07:28.684 dollars by not adapting your raine is right, but like, yeah, 0:07:28.724 --> 0:07:31.724 I think it's anything wrong with we're saying opportunity cost 0:07:31.884 --> 0:07:33.724 is high. I mean, it's a very very very very 0:07:33.804 --> 0:07:35.484 very slippery slope, but. 0:07:35.724 --> 0:07:39.804 Yeah, it certainly is. And on that note, Nate, maybe 0:07:39.844 --> 0:07:42.924 we should talk about someone who has the most fuck 0:07:42.964 --> 0:07:49.724 you money in the entire world, Elon Musk. So we 0:07:49.924 --> 0:07:51.844 play a game good call, bad call? You know, is 0:07:51.884 --> 0:07:53.484 this a good call? Is this a bad call? And 0:07:53.604 --> 0:07:56.244 right now we're going to be putting that lens not 0:07:56.404 --> 0:08:00.204 on Musk, but on Tesla's board because earlier this week, 0:08:00.284 --> 0:08:03.604 so we are recording on Monday, September eighth, So I 0:08:03.604 --> 0:08:07.564 guess it was last week that Tesla offered it's CEO, 0:08:07.764 --> 0:08:11.604 Elon Musk, a new compensation package that's going to be 0:08:11.804 --> 0:08:17.044 worth one trillion dollars over the next ten years and 0:08:17.204 --> 0:08:19.924 by the end of it if he actually earns out 0:08:19.964 --> 0:08:22.644 this compensation package, which is an if, right, there are 0:08:23.004 --> 0:08:25.644 a lot of things that have to go right, but 0:08:26.244 --> 0:08:30.004 he would own almost twenty nine twenty eight point eight 0:08:30.204 --> 0:08:34.764 percent of Tesla's stock because that's how his compensation would 0:08:34.804 --> 0:08:37.404 be paid out, which is huge, right, and that's a 0:08:37.444 --> 0:08:43.004 lot more than most CEOs ever get to earn of 0:08:43.044 --> 0:08:45.364 their of their company's stock, which would put him in 0:08:45.404 --> 0:08:48.844 a really interesting position. So basically, you know, the board 0:08:48.884 --> 0:08:51.844 has thrown money at him to try to get him 0:08:51.884 --> 0:08:54.844 to stick around. Nate, do you want to talk about 0:08:54.884 --> 0:08:56.844 some of the things that he has to do or 0:08:56.844 --> 0:08:58.244 should I just go through that quickly? 0:08:58.324 --> 0:09:00.644 Why don't you go You know, I'm still on finish 0:09:01.164 --> 0:09:04.124 time here, so why don't you go through it? Maria? 0:09:04.364 --> 0:09:09.204 All right? So, basically he needs to meet some milestones, 0:09:09.524 --> 0:09:14.604 which include everything from profits that have to increase over 0:09:14.844 --> 0:09:20.364 twenty four times to one million autonomous taxis that are 0:09:20.404 --> 0:09:26.124 going to be deployed, one million humanoid robots, and car 0:09:26.164 --> 0:09:29.964 sales obviously, so there are a lot of things that 0:09:30.164 --> 0:09:34.164 have to happen. So Tesla has to reach four hundred 0:09:34.204 --> 0:09:40.164 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization annually, 0:09:40.604 --> 0:09:44.204 and right now it is earning less than seventeen billion 0:09:44.244 --> 0:09:47.404 dollars a year, so that's quite a high number. He 0:09:47.524 --> 0:09:50.604 needs to have an eight point five trillion dollar market cap. 0:09:51.004 --> 0:09:55.124 Current market cap is about one trillion. The robotaxis is 0:09:55.164 --> 0:09:57.724 a huge ask, right because right now they're way behind 0:09:57.724 --> 0:10:03.364 schedule on that. So they have to deliver twenty million teslas, 0:10:03.404 --> 0:10:07.124 which is actually probably the most attainable, but I don't 0:10:07.164 --> 0:10:08.204 know we can talk about that. 0:10:09.724 --> 0:10:15.564 I could deliver fourteen million teslas, and. 0:10:15.164 --> 0:10:20.404 And they're humanoid robots. Optimus is another one where they've 0:10:20.444 --> 0:10:24.044 had a lot of issues, including in their demos. The 0:10:24.124 --> 0:10:28.124 Optimus robots have not hit their benchmarks over time. I 0:10:28.164 --> 0:10:31.564 think Elon has been over optimistic with all of these, 0:10:31.564 --> 0:10:34.204 including the robots. But these are the things that have 0:10:34.284 --> 0:10:37.644 to happen for him to get his compensation. Except and 0:10:37.724 --> 0:10:40.364 this is one big except. So I was reading all 0:10:40.404 --> 0:10:42.284 of this and I was like, huh, interesting thing that 0:10:42.324 --> 0:10:47.524 they put in there. If there are factors quote outside 0:10:47.764 --> 0:10:52.764 Tesla's control end quote that hurts Tesla's ability to reach 0:10:53.004 --> 0:10:57.004 these milestones and reach these delivery targets, then Musk will 0:10:57.044 --> 0:11:00.124 still get compensated. And it seems to me that that's 0:11:00.164 --> 0:11:03.004 a pretty big out right that must can say, oh, well, 0:11:03.044 --> 0:11:04.044 you know this was up might. 0:11:04.004 --> 0:11:07.124 Have the best lawyer billing cycles in history. If there's 0:11:07.124 --> 0:11:09.164 a dispute over this, I would think. 0:11:09.484 --> 0:11:12.604 Yeah, I think so. So that's kind of the that's 0:11:12.644 --> 0:11:16.404 the one caveat This will come to a vote on 0:11:16.604 --> 0:11:21.724 November six. Listeners might remember as well that Musk already 0:11:21.764 --> 0:11:25.284 has a prior compensation package that is in courts right 0:11:25.324 --> 0:11:29.444 now because it was challenged. So yeah, so that's where 0:11:29.444 --> 0:11:33.364 we are. And the question is right, like good call 0:11:33.564 --> 0:11:36.364 or bad call on the part of the board of Tesla. 0:11:37.044 --> 0:11:40.444 Everything is going down. Profits are going down, Tesla's market 0:11:40.484 --> 0:11:42.844 share is going down. Is it a good call to 0:11:42.924 --> 0:11:46.004 just throw money at Elon and try to kind of 0:11:46.044 --> 0:11:47.964 get him to hit all of these targets to get 0:11:47.964 --> 0:11:50.124 his attention back? Do we think this is a good 0:11:50.204 --> 0:11:53.404 use of capital? Do we think Elon will be motivated 0:11:53.444 --> 0:11:55.684 by it? He's already the world's richest man. Do we 0:11:55.724 --> 0:11:57.484 think he's going to perform? Like? What do we think 0:11:57.524 --> 0:11:59.844 about all of this? I think it's actually a really 0:11:59.964 --> 0:12:05.284 kind of interesting psychological question about someone who's already insanely wealthy. 0:12:05.324 --> 0:12:07.564 You know, how do we motivate someone like that? And 0:12:07.844 --> 0:12:10.444 is this, you know, is this the way to do it? 0:12:11.084 --> 0:12:14.564 Yeah? I think it's a smart package. Actually, so you 0:12:14.604 --> 0:12:17.084 can burn me at the stake for being such a capitalist. 0:12:17.084 --> 0:12:19.204 But no, the reason why it's smart is because it 0:12:19.244 --> 0:12:22.884 would seemed to me like these targets are a not 0:12:23.804 --> 0:12:27.124 terribly easy to hit, notwithstanding the ambiguity of some of 0:12:27.164 --> 0:12:29.964 these you know, acts of God clauses, right and b. 0:12:31.004 --> 0:12:33.444 If the company is doing that well, then there's a 0:12:33.484 --> 0:12:36.284 lot of wealth to go around, right. We're talking about 0:12:36.724 --> 0:12:41.764 much higher than market growth. The fact that Tesla you know, 0:12:41.924 --> 0:12:46.244 is facing more competition from Chinese automakers. It's products you're 0:12:46.244 --> 0:12:48.604 not seen as innovative. They are all these things they 0:12:48.924 --> 0:12:50.964 are trying to do, robo taxis and stuff like that, 0:12:50.964 --> 0:12:53.604 but they're kind of like not as market leading right now. 0:12:53.684 --> 0:12:56.564 But like, but if he turns it around, then I 0:12:56.564 --> 0:12:59.764 think it strikes me as like fairly rational if it's 0:12:59.804 --> 0:13:02.324 unlikely to be hit these benchmarks. Although Elon has bet 0:13:02.364 --> 0:13:05.044 on himself before and been right, it's part of why 0:13:05.044 --> 0:13:07.764 he is already the world's richest man, I'm all for it. 0:13:08.444 --> 0:13:13.564 Well, so theoretically, I don't mind, you know, great compensation 0:13:13.724 --> 0:13:18.844 packages if there's a good end result. I'm wondering, though, 0:13:20.044 --> 0:13:22.564 if you want to get you know, the world's richest 0:13:22.564 --> 0:13:26.004 man right to focus on Tesla, even though his attention 0:13:26.124 --> 0:13:28.884 has been elsewhere, his ambitions have been elsewhere. You know, 0:13:28.964 --> 0:13:32.324 he's interested in X and SpaceX and all these other things. 0:13:33.404 --> 0:13:37.524 Is just like throwing dollar signs at it. Is that 0:13:37.804 --> 0:13:40.924 really going to be the best motivator? And the reason 0:13:40.964 --> 0:13:43.604 I asked that, and maybe the answer is yes, but 0:13:43.644 --> 0:13:46.804 the answer could also be no, because there is a 0:13:46.884 --> 0:13:51.844 lot of really great psychological research about intrinsic versus extrinsic motivation, 0:13:52.364 --> 0:13:54.724 and a lot of times the reason that games players 0:13:54.804 --> 0:13:57.964 want to play, you know, are four flow states and 0:13:58.044 --> 0:14:01.244 kind of things that are intrinsic to the game, right, 0:14:01.284 --> 0:14:03.084 Like they want to do better, they want to level up, 0:14:03.124 --> 0:14:04.564 they want to do this, they want to get that, 0:14:05.244 --> 0:14:07.924 like things that make them a good player within the game, right, 0:14:07.964 --> 0:14:10.564 that convey some sort of prestige on them. 0:14:10.684 --> 0:14:11.964 And it fits. 0:14:12.244 --> 0:14:14.084 And I'm not talking about people for whom like this 0:14:14.124 --> 0:14:16.404 is their profession and like they just need to get paid. 0:14:17.324 --> 0:14:22.884 But when you start replacing intrinsic motivation with extrinsic motivation, 0:14:23.004 --> 0:14:26.804 right when you start putting dollar values on everything, sometimes 0:14:26.844 --> 0:14:31.004 motivation actually lacks. So there can be this you know, 0:14:31.044 --> 0:14:34.964 ironic effect where where when you actually get money, like 0:14:35.004 --> 0:14:37.284 all of a sudden, it's not fun anymore. And that's 0:14:37.324 --> 0:14:39.124 why a lot of people. You know, you sometimes hear 0:14:39.164 --> 0:14:42.644 the advice like keep your hobbies, your hobbies right, don't 0:14:42.684 --> 0:14:45.124 try to make everything into a side hustle, because you 0:14:45.164 --> 0:14:47.124 might find that you no longer enjoy the types of 0:14:47.164 --> 0:14:49.884 things that you used to really enjoy when you feel. 0:14:49.644 --> 0:14:54.044 Like you have to experience. Yeah, I'm curious, Nate. 0:14:54.084 --> 0:14:56.324 Why don't you actually say a little bit more about that, 0:14:56.364 --> 0:14:58.084 because I think that that is part of the question 0:14:58.204 --> 0:15:01.284 here right about whether this is the best motivator. 0:15:01.924 --> 0:15:03.804 Well, look, I'll talk about the two big things that 0:15:03.844 --> 0:15:07.324 I find very motivating, and maybe they're not so different 0:15:07.364 --> 0:15:09.124 than the way Elon thinks about the world. 0:15:09.204 --> 0:15:10.244 Right. You know. 0:15:10.404 --> 0:15:14.924 One is just to build a product that you think 0:15:15.044 --> 0:15:17.124 is really great. Right, to do something that nobody else 0:15:17.164 --> 0:15:21.804 has done, to differentiate, to add intellectual value, artistic value, 0:15:21.844 --> 0:15:24.924 aesthetic value, whatever it might be. Right, But it's like, Okay, 0:15:25.604 --> 0:15:28.924 here's the world. Nobody is building a good election model 0:15:28.964 --> 0:15:30.844 or writing a book like the book I wrote, or 0:15:30.844 --> 0:15:32.604 whatever else, right, and so I am going to do 0:15:32.724 --> 0:15:36.004 that really well. Right, And I think Elon is or 0:15:36.044 --> 0:15:40.004 maybe was motivated by that type of thing, right, he 0:15:40.124 --> 0:15:45.364 definitely has vision. I think you have to be pretty biased, 0:15:45.404 --> 0:15:46.684 not to give him credit for that, right, And the 0:15:46.804 --> 0:15:49.804 other big motivator is like the desire to prove people 0:15:50.124 --> 0:15:54.404 wrong and the fact that you'll have people like us say, oh, 0:15:54.604 --> 0:15:58.764 these targets seem very hard to achieve. They're kind of crazy. 0:15:58.844 --> 0:16:01.484 It can't be done. How can he do all these 0:16:01.484 --> 0:16:03.604 things where they're not even like leading the robotaxi market 0:16:03.644 --> 0:16:05.964 for example, Like, like that could be very motivating too, 0:16:05.964 --> 0:16:09.124 I think I think more so than the money, really, right, 0:16:09.124 --> 0:16:11.644 It's like they're not like that. You have very many 0:16:11.884 --> 0:16:14.204 anyone in Silicon Valley, be the founders or vcs or 0:16:14.204 --> 0:16:16.684 whatever else. They don't like just go and say, Okay, 0:16:16.844 --> 0:16:18.004 well I made a lot of money. I'm going to 0:16:18.044 --> 0:16:20.644 go right in the sunset and hang out at my 0:16:20.764 --> 0:16:24.404 private villa in Tuscany and show up and go to 0:16:24.444 --> 0:16:27.404 really nice three star Michelin restaurants. Right, They usually are 0:16:27.444 --> 0:16:31.124 still motivated to prove their doubters wrong, which makes them 0:16:31.164 --> 0:16:34.804 assholes sometimes. And I don't think anybody would would shy 0:16:34.844 --> 0:16:40.204 away from accusing Elon of that either, right, But yeah. 0:16:39.204 --> 0:16:41.404 Yeah, no, I think that that is a very powerful 0:16:41.444 --> 0:16:44.284 motivator for people like Elon, Right, like, prove the hater's wrong. 0:16:44.364 --> 0:16:46.804 Prove that I can do it, prove that I'm better 0:16:46.844 --> 0:16:49.524 than they think I am because I know better now. 0:16:49.684 --> 0:16:53.884 He has shown a pension for overconfidence. Right. He has 0:16:54.324 --> 0:16:57.924 failed to hit very ambitious targets in the past, but 0:16:58.564 --> 0:17:01.644 they're actually you know, you know, I mean this is 0:17:01.884 --> 0:17:05.044 and listeners of the show no, no fan of Elon, 0:17:05.364 --> 0:17:11.284 but this is something that is actually pretty not smart, 0:17:11.324 --> 0:17:14.964 but like it is something that can work when you 0:17:15.004 --> 0:17:19.524 do set these ambitious targets, right, even if you don't 0:17:19.684 --> 0:17:24.124 actually hit them, you might hit a much higher target 0:17:24.164 --> 0:17:26.764 than you otherwise would have done in trying to hit 0:17:26.804 --> 0:17:29.924 this crazy target. Right. So it's kind of the opposite 0:17:30.004 --> 0:17:35.564 of customer service business or consulting when you say under promise, 0:17:35.644 --> 0:17:37.964 over deliver, right, Like, that's how you get people to 0:17:38.004 --> 0:17:40.924 be really happy. Like you tell them a little bit 0:17:41.004 --> 0:17:43.084 less than you think you're capable of doing, and then 0:17:43.164 --> 0:17:45.284 once you hit what you're actually capable of doing, they'll 0:17:45.324 --> 0:17:47.364 be like, holy shit, this is even better than I thought. 0:17:47.724 --> 0:17:50.644 And he is kind of doing the opposite, right. Historically, 0:17:50.644 --> 0:17:54.204 what he's done is over promise and underdeliver. That's not 0:17:54.244 --> 0:17:57.124 necessarily great for Tesla's stock in the short term, but 0:17:57.404 --> 0:18:01.724 it might not be necessarily a horrible strategy for motivating 0:18:01.804 --> 0:18:06.124 people within the company to actually strive to hit kind 0:18:06.164 --> 0:18:09.364 of these other milestones. And one of the reasons why 0:18:09.404 --> 0:18:11.924 I think that probably the board wants him there and 0:18:12.044 --> 0:18:14.124 is willing to kind of do any throw anything at 0:18:14.124 --> 0:18:18.804 the problem to get him there is that anecdotally, Musk 0:18:18.924 --> 0:18:23.164 does have a very strong motivating influence on workers when 0:18:23.204 --> 0:18:26.964 he's present, right, and when he's not, motivation tends to sag. Like. 0:18:27.044 --> 0:18:29.564 It is a very kind of cultive personality type of 0:18:29.604 --> 0:18:32.204 business from what we've heard and from what we've seen, 0:18:32.684 --> 0:18:34.884 and so maybe they're just trying to do everything they 0:18:34.964 --> 0:18:37.924 can to try to get him physically there and really 0:18:38.004 --> 0:18:41.844 trying to motivate people directly. I'm torn, right, Like, I 0:18:41.884 --> 0:18:44.444 don't know. Obviously, I don't think they should be throwing 0:18:44.564 --> 0:18:47.004 this amount of money at anyone, but like, let's just 0:18:47.044 --> 0:18:50.284 put that aside and just think about. 0:18:50.084 --> 0:18:54.684 Type of socialists are you running your rand moom Donnie's campaign? 0:18:55.524 --> 0:18:58.964 I know, I know, right, but so let's let's just 0:18:59.004 --> 0:19:00.484 put those considerations aside. 0:19:00.604 --> 0:19:06.244 And you believe billionaires shouldn't exist? Are billionaires Okay. 0:19:06.284 --> 0:19:11.684 I'm fine with billionaires existing, but but yeah, so so 0:19:11.764 --> 0:19:14.764 the I think the question here is is an interesting 0:19:14.844 --> 0:19:17.204 one in terms of how do we, you know, how 0:19:17.244 --> 0:19:20.684 do we get people like that to perform at peak? They, 0:19:20.804 --> 0:19:24.484 I think, are trying to throw everything into the equation, 0:19:25.004 --> 0:19:27.564 you know, all these targets, money, all all of these 0:19:27.564 --> 0:19:30.084 different things. The one thing that does worry me is 0:19:30.124 --> 0:19:33.764 that out clause that I read to you, right, because like, 0:19:34.604 --> 0:19:37.124 if he can just get the money without doing anything, 0:19:38.364 --> 0:19:40.404 I think that there's a good chance that he is 0:19:40.484 --> 0:19:45.044 going to potentially go there. So I might be worried 0:19:45.044 --> 0:19:48.364 about language, but that's my biggest that's one of my 0:19:48.404 --> 0:19:48.964 biggest Oh. 0:19:48.964 --> 0:19:52.644 Look, I assume that, I mean, Tesla's stock was up 0:19:52.684 --> 0:19:56.924 on this, right. I assume that, like the lawyers have 0:19:56.964 --> 0:19:59.724 thought about how that clause might be interpreted in their 0:19:59.764 --> 0:20:02.444 outclauses and in clauses. And I'm making that term up right. 0:20:03.524 --> 0:20:06.564 I assume that, like it's not just you know, writing 0:20:06.564 --> 0:20:08.364 things up on a white board, that they thought this 0:20:08.404 --> 0:20:09.724 through a little bit. But yeah, look, to me, the 0:20:09.804 --> 0:20:15.844 question is also, you know, does elon add that much 0:20:16.004 --> 0:20:20.524 marginal value over another CEO? That kind of thing is 0:20:20.604 --> 0:20:22.364 very hard to test, right if you go and I 0:20:22.404 --> 0:20:27.724 asked my handy assistant Claude the AI. But I asked Claude, 0:20:28.324 --> 0:20:31.564 what's the empirical literature say on whether CEO pay packages 0:20:31.604 --> 0:20:32.164 are worth it? 0:20:32.284 --> 0:20:32.564 Right? 0:20:32.684 --> 0:20:35.404 And Claude wasn't sure. There does not seem to be 0:20:35.444 --> 0:20:39.244 a clear consensus on this question in general and specifically. 0:20:39.404 --> 0:20:43.564 I mean, you know, Elon got very distracted by politics 0:20:43.564 --> 0:20:46.004 for some period of time. Well, that's stracts the right word. 0:20:46.004 --> 0:20:47.964 I mean, I think most people would say that XAI 0:20:48.244 --> 0:20:50.964 is doing interesting things behind kind of the big three 0:20:51.004 --> 0:20:56.564 AI labs, but is a serious player, right, there's SpaceX 0:20:56.604 --> 0:21:00.084 There's a lot of things, so yeah, you know. Meanwhile, 0:21:00.244 --> 0:21:03.884 Elon has also been accused of recreational drug use in 0:21:03.964 --> 0:21:06.924 well sourced stores in the Wall Street Journal. He is 0:21:07.004 --> 0:21:10.684 a polarizing figure. I don't believe that his approval writing. 0:21:10.684 --> 0:21:12.964 We've been tracking favorability of branks for Elon. They haven't 0:21:13.004 --> 0:21:14.724 really improved very much. And see let the White House. 0:21:14.724 --> 0:21:17.404 In fact, if anything, Republicans are more mad at him 0:21:17.404 --> 0:21:20.084 now than they once were. Democrats haven't really you know, 0:21:20.564 --> 0:21:24.084 returned to admiration for him yet. So there are a 0:21:24.124 --> 0:21:27.204 lot of disadvantages too. But you know, I mean, look, 0:21:28.444 --> 0:21:30.684 one of the other options he owns somewhere in the 0:21:30.764 --> 0:21:34.364 range of fifteen percent of Tesla stock, right, so who's 0:21:34.364 --> 0:21:37.404 the largest shareholder. If you wanted to oust him, you 0:21:37.444 --> 0:21:40.084 would have to have the majority of other shareholders wanting 0:21:40.124 --> 0:21:42.324 him out, which is very difficult for lots and lots 0:21:42.324 --> 0:21:44.724 of reasons. So, you know, maybe it's not a choice 0:21:44.724 --> 0:21:50.444 between Elon and generic CEO so much as motivated Elon 0:21:50.564 --> 0:21:51.844 versus unmotivated Elon. 0:21:52.804 --> 0:21:54.844 Yeah, so at the end of the day, night, good 0:21:54.884 --> 0:21:56.964 call or bad call. I think you know where you 0:21:57.004 --> 0:22:01.484 come down, all right, and I am it's hard going. 0:22:01.644 --> 0:22:03.604 I'm gonna waffle on this one. I'm going to say, 0:22:03.724 --> 0:22:05.884