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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. But this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go from growing in so spect. They're saying

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Speaker 1: it's a cash touchtop that all we see most gamblers

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Speaker 1: when they go to gamble, they go to winning. That's incredible,

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right. This is the ultimate kabak you want to pa.

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Speaker 1: And we are good away.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 2: joined as allays by Raheem Palmer, and today we are

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Speaker 2: wrapping up our preseason coverage with some season long stat

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Speaker 2: leader props. Who will lead the league in passing yards,

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Speaker 2: Who's gonna have the most rushing or receiving touchdowns? We

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Speaker 2: will look at the favorites. We'll hit some long shots

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Speaker 2: for each prop. Raheem, I really don't know how much

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Speaker 2: more football I can talk before we get some actual

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Speaker 2: game and numbers. You're still alive out there?

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm still love. I mean, the NFL season

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Speaker 1: is here. I mean we about a week away from

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Speaker 1: one week of place our first best on NFL games.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm a Cowboys fan. Dak Prescott opens up

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Speaker 1: against Tom Brady and I think that's the perfect set

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Speaker 1: weight to get into who's going to have the most

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Speaker 1: passing yards. I'm excited. I know you're excited, so let's

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Speaker 1: get into it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I'm excited to talk about it. I'm excited for

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Speaker 2: that Thursday night game. Before we get started, just a

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Speaker 2: quick reminder on everything else you can find if you

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Speaker 2: are cramming for the season heading into the holiday weekend.

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Speaker 2: Here in the Action Network podcast feed, you can get

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Speaker 2: four hours of win totals from Stocky, Raybond and Kerner

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Speaker 2: Raheem and I blitz through all thirty two teams earlier

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Speaker 2: this week in our season preview, so take a look

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Speaker 2: at all those in the podcast feed. Today's counting numbers day,

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Speaker 2: so it's all about volume. So yeah, we're gonna do

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Speaker 2: passing leaders first, then rushing and then receiving, and a

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Speaker 2: lot of numbers here and if you want a little

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Speaker 2: bit more, you can find on each one of these.

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Speaker 2: I got a full article going up at the Action

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Speaker 2: Network this week, so make sure to take a look

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Speaker 2: at those as well. Of course, as always, our odds

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Speaker 2: today are from bet MGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast. Yeah, sir Rahim, you said passing yards.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with that one. Patrick Mahomes and your guy

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Speaker 2: Dak Prescott are at the top of the list. So

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Speaker 2: those are good names. Should Mahomes and Prescott be the favorites?

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Speaker 2: And when we think about either one of those to

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Speaker 2: lead the league in passing yards.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the first thing you got to

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Speaker 1: do when you look at passing yards and who's going

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Speaker 1: to have the most passing yard, there's a few things

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Speaker 1: that you were to want to look for. You want

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Speaker 1: to look for a high buying scheme. You know, you

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Speaker 1: want to look for teams that are just gonna play

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Speaker 1: fast paced. You want a heavy pass play call. You

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Speaker 1: want a shaky defense, you want very good pass efficiency.

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Speaker 1: You want a little bit less scrambling because I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you've got a guy who's scrambling all the time,

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Speaker 1: like Lamar Jackson, his first inclination is the run, it

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Speaker 1: means you're gonna have less passing downs. I mean we

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Speaker 1: saw Lamar Jackson because the Titans, he scrambled for a

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Speaker 1: fifty yard touchdown. You don't want that if you're looking

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Speaker 1: for most passing yards. And more importantly, you want good health.

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Speaker 1: So I mean when you when we look at the

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Speaker 1: first two, you got Patrick Mahomes, you got da Prescott.

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Speaker 1: I like Prescott here. I mean this, I mean this

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Speaker 1: Dallas defense is you know, they are really really struggling.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, more importantly, Dallas they played really really fast.

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Speaker 1: I mean Prescott was on pace for seven thousand yards

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Speaker 1: last year in four games. I mean he's completed sixty

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Speaker 1: six percent of his passes. I mean he's his air

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Speaker 1: yards are you know he has a non point four

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Speaker 1: depth of target. This is a guy who who could

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Speaker 1: easily pass the record. I mean, you know, Dallas plays

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Speaker 1: a fast paced game. Obviously, I think the one drawback

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Speaker 1: is that he has Ezekiel Elliott. But I think with

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Speaker 1: this defense, they're gonna be looking to pass more. So

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Speaker 1: I do think out of anybody, him or Mahomes, I

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Speaker 1: would look towards that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean those deck numbers from last year those

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Speaker 2: first four games were just insane. He was at four

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty two and a half yards a game.

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Speaker 2: He was averaging more than fifty passing attempts a game.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's just absurd, Like, obviously that was never

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Speaker 2: going to be sustainable for a whole season. But I

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Speaker 2: think these are definitely the right two favorites. Everything that

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Speaker 2: you listen off, everything you were saying, the bad defense,

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Speaker 2: the high pace, the good volume, the good receivers. These

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Speaker 2: guys check every box. So it makes sense to me

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Speaker 2: that they're the favorites. That doesn't necessarily mean it makes

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Speaker 2: sense for me to bet them. Because with Mahomes, so,

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Speaker 2: you think that the Chiefs pass a ton, but last

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Speaker 2: year they were third in attempts, but the previous two

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Speaker 2: they're more like fringe top ten, and we know that

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Speaker 2: they remade their offensive line. Clyde Edwards, a layer I

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Speaker 2: think is gonna get a little more run this year,

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Speaker 2: so the volume isn't quite as high. And with Mahomes two,

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Speaker 2: he does tend to miss a game or two, whether

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Speaker 2: it's because he's got one of those injuries or maybe

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Speaker 2: the they're just sitting out the last week of the season.

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Speaker 2: Even too, if the Chiefs are really good, they can

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Speaker 2: be too good, and then he's going to set out

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Speaker 2: some of those late games too, and you lose a

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Speaker 2: little bit of that garbage time. Probably not a problem.

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Speaker 2: With Dak Prescott, They' probaly going to need every yard

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Speaker 2: he can get with them, So I like Dak. Between

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Speaker 2: the two of them, to me, I don't necessarily want

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Speaker 2: to bet it, just because the same reason I'm nervous

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Speaker 2: about anything Cowboys. There's so many variables, There's so much

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Speaker 2: that can go wrong here. He's got still the leg

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Speaker 2: recovery and the shoulder injury, the old line. I'm not

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Speaker 2: really sure what I'm getting, So I think these are

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Speaker 2: the right favorites to me. At dak is at plus

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Speaker 2: five point fifty, mahomes is at plus three twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I think that's fair. But on these stats, I'm looking

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Speaker 2: more for a little bit longer number usually unless I

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Speaker 2: feel really good about it, and there's enough red flag

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Speaker 2: possibility there that I'm not totally sure on them. So

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Speaker 2: I think they're right too. If we move down the

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Speaker 2: list a little bit, is there anybody that you like

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Speaker 2: past those times up to possibly lead the league in

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Speaker 2: passing yards?

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Speaker 1: I think you know the name that jumps out to

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Speaker 1: me is Justin Herbert, this guy. I mean, first things first,

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Speaker 1: the Chargers aren't going to have a great defense. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I know they brought Brandon Stally in, but I mean

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Speaker 1: this team doesn't have the pieces that the Rams had.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they got Joey Bosa, but I mean outside

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Speaker 1: of that, I'm not seeing, you know, where they have

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Speaker 1: the sustained dominance that the Rams had. And you know,

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Speaker 1: justin Herbert, I mean he he looks like a star.

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Speaker 1: I mean despite sitting out Week one last year, he

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Speaker 1: threw for four thousand, three hundred and thirty six yards.

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Speaker 1: His efficiency is there. He has sixty seven percent completion rate,

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Speaker 1: He seven point three yards per attempt, He has good receivers.

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Speaker 1: Keenan Allen. I just think he's a guy who you know,

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Speaker 1: he could get hot. And then you have to remember

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Speaker 1: he does play the Kansas City Chiefs twice. In that defense,

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Speaker 1: I mean he's playing the Raiders twice. The Raiders don't

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Speaker 1: have a great defense, so he's got to keep up.

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Speaker 1: And I think that I think that's that's where the

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Speaker 1: value is for me. I mean, other than him, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think I'd be looking towards maybe Matthew Stafford. I

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Speaker 1: don't really want to, you know, lean towards Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: because Aaron Rodgers he played out of his mind last year,

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Speaker 1: and I think you're you're going to get some regression.

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Speaker 1: They didn't have really any injuries on the on the

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Speaker 1: offensive side of the ball last year. So I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at anybody as justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford. I think

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Speaker 1: the Rams Sean mcvays. Finally, I have a quarterback who

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Speaker 1: actually is decent. So I'm looking towards those two. What

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Speaker 1: about you?

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Speaker 2: The thing you like about Herbert also is Joe Lombardi there.

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Speaker 2: And you got to remember Lombardi had been with the Saints.

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Speaker 2: He's been, you know, the quarterbacks coach for all these

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Speaker 2: Drew Brees years and year after year like this used

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Speaker 2: to be the easiest prop on the board of the

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Speaker 2: entire mix. You just just fill in Drew Brees and

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Speaker 2: just take home your money every year, like the guy

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Speaker 2: just you know, not the last couple of years we

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Speaker 2: saw where it went. But he was just an easy

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Speaker 2: winner because the volume was so high. So the only

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Speaker 2: thing that gives me a little hesitation on Herbert is

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Speaker 2: that the Charges were already number five in passing attempts

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Speaker 2: last year, and they've already been a very high passing offense.

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Speaker 2: So it's just we just don't know, maybe this is

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Speaker 2: going to be even you know, as much or even

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Speaker 2: more passing. But the Saints ran a lot the last

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Speaker 2: few years, and that was a strength and you know,

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Speaker 2: the Chargers line has been a lot better, so it

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Speaker 2: could be a little bit more balanced attack. I think

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Speaker 2: with Herbert you just have a very wide range of outcomes.

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Speaker 2: That's okay. We want right wide range of outcomes on

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Speaker 2: these We need the high end. So to me, Stafford

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Speaker 2: is the one that I like a lot. He's at

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Speaker 2: plus fourteen hundred right now, and Jared Goff is not

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Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford. And you better believe Sean McVeigh knows that

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Speaker 2: they gave up the farm for him because they know

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Speaker 2: how big of a difference that he makes there. We've

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Speaker 2: talked about like the air yards and the performance versus pressure.

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Speaker 2: The thing thing is too there's real volume here. Jared

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Speaker 2: Goff in twenty nineteen led the league in passing attempts.

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Speaker 2: Even though it was Jared Goff, they were still willing

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Speaker 2: to pass that much. And in twenty nineteen and twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 2: Goff was over forty six hundred yards and he was

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Speaker 2: over eight yards per attempt. Stafford can put up forty

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Speaker 2: attempts a game in his sleep, but he's been doing

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Speaker 2: volume for years with Detroit. He's already got a good

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Speaker 2: yards per attempt. I think you know, we're talking about

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Speaker 2: some high numbers here. I think that the passing record

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Speaker 2: might fall this year, and it's not totally fair because

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Speaker 2: we got that extra game in there. But I think

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Speaker 2: Stafford is one of those guys that could easily get

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Speaker 2: to fifty five hundred if things are going right. So

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Speaker 2: I like him. The other one I like here is

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady. It doesn't you don't quite have the same

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Speaker 2: like shootout possibility because Tampa's defense should be pretty good,

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Speaker 2: though the secondary it is a bit of a weak

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Speaker 2: spot comparatively to the rest of the team. You just

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Speaker 2: got to love everything about Tampa's offense, especially over the

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Speaker 2: final seven games last year. They were the number one

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Speaker 2: pace and the number one offense in the league when

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Speaker 2: they really got going. Over those last seven games, Brady's

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Speaker 2: pace was fifty four hundred yards and forty nine touchdowns

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Speaker 2: for a full seventeen game season. So you know, we

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Speaker 2: won't even have to list all the weapons, you know them.

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Speaker 2: There's just so much there to like in Tampa as

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Speaker 2: a super easy schedule. I like Brady even more for

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Speaker 2: our next one, but I've got him and Stafford.

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Speaker 1: There is there anybody, Oh, you're betting on a forty

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Speaker 1: five year old quarterback to lead the league in passing yards.

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Speaker 2: Did you did your.

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Speaker 1: Did you join TV twelve? Like, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: I have not joined TV twelve, but you're gonna hear

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Speaker 2: a lot of love from me on the Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: Buccaneers today. They got the number one easiest schedule. They

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Speaker 2: have so many weapons, Like, there's so much I go

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Speaker 2: at the offense. Even if one guy goes down, they

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Speaker 2: have literally like a Hall of Famer ready to step

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Speaker 2: in and pick up the slack there. I just think

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady is gonna be playing video game quarterback as

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Speaker 2: long as he gets enough protection. He's just gonna stand

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Speaker 2: back there. And he's got guys single covered all over

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Speaker 2: the field that are like would be the Star and

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Speaker 2: another team and they're like the fifth guy on the box.

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Speaker 2: So I'm done with Lebron and with Brady. I'm done

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Speaker 2: betting against the age. Whenever it finally stops, then it

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Speaker 2: will stop. I've bet against it for way too long

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Speaker 2: and been burned every single time. The dude just won

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Speaker 2: a Super Bowl. He's one of the best in the

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Speaker 2: league right now. That's all that matters to me. If

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Speaker 2: he falls off, then I guess I'll go down with

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Speaker 2: the ship on it. So, okay, makes sense, I did it.

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Speaker 2: So I mean you're we're looking at passing TDS? So

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Speaker 2: are you rolling with Brady there?

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Speaker 1: Again?

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Speaker 2: Well? Before passing TDS, I've got a couple of long shots.

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Speaker 2: I'm interested on the yardage. Do you have any long

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Speaker 2: shots there? Can I give you a couple of names? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: you give me cop of names? What are you thinking?

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Speaker 2: All right? So Big Ben? I know we literally just

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Speaker 2: trashed Ben Roethlisberger yesterday. He's eighty to one at some

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Speaker 2: book right now. Pittsburgh was number one in the league

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Speaker 2: in passing attempts last year and the last two times

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Speaker 2: Roethlisberger stayed healthy, he led the league in yards both times.

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Speaker 2: We know Pittsburgh has good receivers. I think Matt Kanda

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Speaker 2: will help the offense. Roethlisberger was at six point two

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Speaker 2: yards per attempt the last two years, not going to

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Speaker 2: cut it. So it's going to have to be much

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Speaker 2: better than that. But at eighty to one for the

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Speaker 2: dude that literally won this the last two times he

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Speaker 2: stayed healthy, I feel like I'm really just betting on health,

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Speaker 2: and I don't want to bet on Big Ben's health.

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Speaker 2: But eighty to one, I might take a little nibble.

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Speaker 2: My other one is twice as long, one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty to one at bet MGM Jimmy Garoppolo, And I

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Speaker 2: know it sounds crazy. The forty nine ers are like

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Speaker 2: playing the two quarterback system now. But Trey Lance has

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Speaker 2: hurt his little pinky or whatever, So who knows if

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Speaker 2: he's gonna be ready. What if Garoppolo actually plays all season,

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Speaker 2: that's my question because in San Francisco, Garoppolo for his

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Speaker 2: career has an eight point three yards per attempt. That's

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Speaker 2: basically a Patrick Mahome number like that is a really

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Speaker 2: high number. The efficiency has been there, their offense has

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Speaker 2: been really good when he's out there. I let Kittle

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Speaker 2: and Ayuk and Samuel. I think that they play a

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Speaker 2: pretty soft schedule and they're going to have some decent

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Speaker 2: volume and high efficiency. I think you can get to

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Speaker 2: five thousand yards if he actually plays all seventeen. So

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Speaker 2: the thing is, too we're worried about Trey Lance. You

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Speaker 2: need him to hold off Trey Lance, but we need

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Speaker 2: him to play well anyways. If he's not playing well

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Speaker 2: enough to win this award for us, he's not going

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Speaker 2: to play well enough to hold off Lance. They're kind

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Speaker 2: of the same thing we're betting on. So Big Ben

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Speaker 2: at eighty to one, Jimmy g at one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty to one, how I sold you?

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Speaker 1: You haven't sold me on Jimmy Garoppolo just because I

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Speaker 1: mean the zone one scheme the forty nine ers play,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanny hen has always going to have a solid

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Speaker 1: running back. He's going to run the ball. It's not

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Speaker 1: like they have weapons all over to throw the ball to.

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Speaker 2: So there's no.

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Speaker 1: Way in the world that Jimmy Garoppo is going to

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Speaker 1: have the most path in the yards. Honestly, if Jimmy

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Speaker 1: Garoppo has more passing yards, I'll cut my hair live

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Speaker 1: on a podcast.

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Speaker 2: Wow. Alright, all right, Well, one hundred and fifty to one,

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Speaker 2: I'll take my chances on it. But let's talk about

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Speaker 2: some passing touchdowns. Pat Mahomes at plus three point fifty

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Speaker 2: and Tom Brady at five hundred. Those are our leaders.

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Speaker 2: And like you said, I am in on Tom Brady.

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Speaker 2: This is my favorite play among any of the quarterback bets.

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Speaker 2: Brady has always been a big touchdown guy. One of

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Speaker 2: the stats that doesn't seem like it should be consistent,

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Speaker 2: but actually is pretty telling. Is touchdown percentage for quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: Brady's at five point five percent for his career, and

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Speaker 2: that is a very strong number, like that'd be good

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Speaker 2: for anyone for a season. That's a career high for

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Speaker 2: a lot of players. That's just Brady's average. He's had

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Speaker 2: twelve years at over five percent. He's at least five

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Speaker 2: times at six point four percent or higher, which again,

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Speaker 2: these are really high numbers, and he was even higher

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Speaker 2: than that last year the last seven games last year

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Speaker 2: when we talked about how good the Bucks offense was,

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Speaker 2: twenty touchdowns in those seven games. That's almost three per game.

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Speaker 2: So well, to me, when we're looking at this to

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Speaker 2: lead the league in passing touchdowns, you're probably looking at

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Speaker 2: someone you need to get to a round forty. With

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Speaker 2: the seventeen games, you need to see forty. I think

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Speaker 2: Brady is going to like his median outcome is forty.

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Speaker 2: I think Brady's upside is fifty. I think that there's

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Speaker 2: like a if he stays healthy. I think that there's

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Speaker 2: a five thousand and fifty sort of season possibly waiting

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Speaker 2: in there. Not to mention Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski,

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Speaker 2: Chris Godwin. Those are all huge touchdown threats. When this

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Speaker 2: team gets on the red zone, they're gonna let Brady

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Speaker 2: throw it in. So I think he's gonna put up

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Speaker 2: a huge touchdown number. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: Well, I I kind of agree with you here just

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Speaker 1: because I mean, this Tampa Bay defense is gonna hold

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Speaker 1: I mean, unlike passing yards. I think the defense is

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Speaker 1: gonna actually help with the short fields and things like that.

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Speaker 1: So I do think this Tampa Bay offense is going

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Speaker 1: to continue to roll. If I had to go with anybody,

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Speaker 1: I think I would go with Russell Wilson, provided that

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll doesn't actually destroy the offense and the way

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Speaker 1: that he did last season. I think this is this

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Speaker 1: is the year which Russell Wilson can go out there

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Speaker 1: and docity with DK Metcalf, Dwayne Eskridge. I think he

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Speaker 1: can throw the ball over the field. So I think

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Speaker 1: that's that's personally who I'm leaning towards. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: you can't go wrong with Brady. I mean, this team's

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Speaker 1: gonna put up a lot of points.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I really tried to get there with Wilson. I

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Speaker 2: talked about him a lot in the articles I wrote

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Speaker 2: on these. The crazy thing with Wilson season last year

338
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Speaker 2: is a tale of two cities. With Wilson, the first

339
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Speaker 2: half of the season like split it right in the middle.

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Speaker 2: Through eight games, Wilson was like the MVP front runner.

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Speaker 2: He was on paced for something like fifty four hundred

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Speaker 2: yards and fifty six touchdowns. And then the second half

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Speaker 2: of the season they didn't stop letting Russ cook like

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Speaker 2: he was. I thought that's what happened until I looked

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Speaker 2: at the numbers. He was still throwing it almost as much.

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Speaker 2: It's just that defense is adjusted. Remember they were throwing

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Speaker 2: these moonballs the entire first half of the year. To

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Speaker 2: Metcalf and Locket, They're just lighting teams up. And then

349
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Speaker 2: teams were like, hey, you know what, what if we

350
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Speaker 2: just drop a couple of safeties and see if you

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Speaker 2: can drive the field on us, and Seattle forgot how

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Speaker 2: to do that. So I don't know which Wilson we're

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Speaker 2: going to get. I trust in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett,

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Speaker 2: but Shane Waldron, he's the new coordinator there. I don't

355
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Speaker 2: have to see what sort of answers we get. So

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Speaker 2: I like Wilson. I like the theory of it because

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Speaker 2: we've seen it for half of a season and he's

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Speaker 2: as good as anybody here, so we need to see

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Speaker 2: more of the kind of that half. The other one

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Speaker 2: that I like in more of value play is I

361
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Speaker 2: think Baker Mayfield is interesting here, and it's the Cleveland again,

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Speaker 2: the similar argument to what you said about Tampa. Cleveland's

363
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Speaker 2: going to be a running team. But I think that

364
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Speaker 2: the run game could set up for passing touchdowns even

365
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Speaker 2: if you're getting yardage down the field. We just need

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Speaker 2: to get them into the m zone for Baker, and

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Speaker 2: the defense could help too, if the defense is improved here.

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Speaker 2: The other thing too, Baker's numbers are pretty low from

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Speaker 2: last year, but you've talked about this a lot. I

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Speaker 2: think those numbers are like superficially deflated because of those

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Speaker 2: weird weather games in there. You know, the final six

372
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Speaker 2: games last season, Baker jumped from twenty six attempts a

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Speaker 2: game to thirty seven attempts a game, like that's just

374
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Speaker 2: right up there with most of the top quarterbacks. And

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Speaker 2: he had eleven touchdowns in those six games. So about

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Speaker 2: to a game, we probably need more than that. But

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Speaker 2: I think that, you know, the volume might be a

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Speaker 2: little higher than what we think. Baker's got a career

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Speaker 2: five percent touchdown rate that's really good. And Odell Beckham

380
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,439
Speaker 2: is always a big TD threat if he can stay healthy.

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Speaker 2: So I think that that's an interesting play there too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not mad at that, especially with all the

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Speaker 1: win the winning weather games. I think the only issue

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Speaker 1: is I think the Browns they run the ball so much,

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Speaker 1: to which you know, kind of go good segue into

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Speaker 1: what we're doing next. We got rushing yards, most rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, rushing yards. To me, out of everything on the board,

389
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Speaker 2: this is probably the prop I'm going to play the

390
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Speaker 2: least one, just because I can get behind ruling people

391
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Speaker 2: out for this one more than I can get excited

392
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Speaker 2: about ruling someone in. I've got a couple of longer

393
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Speaker 2: shots here, but I don't love some of the favorites here.

394
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Speaker 2: And I think that's kind of how you're thinking too.

395
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Speaker 2: So I know you in an article that just went

396
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Speaker 2: up on Derrick Henry. Talk to me about that a

397
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Speaker 2: little bit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, first things first, Derek Henry, I mean he's

399
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Speaker 1: he's had back to back Russian titles. So it makes

400
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 1: sense that this guy is the favorite at plus three fifty.

401
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 1: But I think you're making a big mistake if you're

402
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Speaker 1: taking Derrick Henry in fantasy or you're taking him to

403
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,879
Speaker 1: lead the league in rushing. I mean Aaron Shatz from

404
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: Football Outsiders, he talks. He actually coined the term the

405
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 1: curse of three seventy. You know, back when Ricky Williams

406
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 1: he had a disappointing two thousand and three season after

407
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Speaker 1: rushing for eighteen hundred and fifty three yards on three

408
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,920
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty three carries. In two thousand and two,

409
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Speaker 1: he followed it up with just thirteen hundred and seventy

410
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Speaker 1: two yards on three hundred and ninety two carries. And

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Speaker 1: what Aaron Shatt did with his research is he found

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Speaker 1: that running backs to a master one hundred and seventy

413
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Speaker 1: carries more, they see a significant decline in their production.

414
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Speaker 1: Guys who get injured, guys who are never as good again.

415
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Speaker 1: And there's Eric Dickerson who was able to defy the

416
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Speaker 1: laws of gravity. I mean Eric Dickerson. I mean he

417
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 1: put up two and five yards on three hundred and

418
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Speaker 1: seventy nine carries in nineteen eighty four, a year after

419
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Speaker 1: amassing over three hundred and seventy carries. I mean, and

420
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Speaker 1: this guy, he continued to defy the laws of gravity.

421
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Speaker 1: But even hint him. You know, he's had three hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy carries about four times, and he saw the

423
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 1: cline in his rushing production two or three times. So

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Speaker 1: I mean, when you look at these running backs, I

425
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Speaker 1: just think Derrick Henry, Dereck Henry has had We're talking

426
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Speaker 1: about seven hundred and eighty two touches including the playoffs

427
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Speaker 1: the last two seasons, and I mean, we're not even

428
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Speaker 1: gonna get into four hundred touches when you look at like,

429
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Speaker 1: look at somebody like Christian McCaffrey last year. He had

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Speaker 1: four hundred touches in twenty nineteen and played just three

431
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 1: games last year. So I think you're gonna see a

432
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 1: big drop off from Derek Henry. That's a guy I

433
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: really don't like.

434
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 2: I want no part of him. I don't like. Look,

435
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 2: I don't have a numbers argument. The numbers argument is

436
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 2: the thing you just said. If you think Derek Henry

437
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 2: is going to be healthy, just fast forward ten minutes

438
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: and go put your money on Henry. Because he's gonna

439
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:24,719
Speaker 2: win all the things. He led the league in carries

440
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: and yards and touchdowns each of the last two years.

441
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: It's easy money. You're betting on health and you're betting

442
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 2: against history. It's not a good bet. We've seen this

443
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,439
Speaker 2: over and over again, and to me too, even like

444
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 2: Dalwyn Cook is a lesser version of that. He's my guy.

445
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 2: I'm a Vikings fan. But Cook has already in four

446
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: seasons missed two to five and ten games per year.

447
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,719
Speaker 2: He hasn't even been healthy enough to get to three

448
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy or he would have gotten a three

449
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy by now. So again, if either one

450
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 2: of those guys stays healthy, they're gonna win this award.

451
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 2: So there's they're gonna be in contention at the very

452
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 2: least for it. But I just at the price that

453
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 2: we're looking at for them as such heavy favorites, I

454
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: don't want to play it. I'm not willing to risk

455
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 2: my money when history has told me for decades of

456
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 2: football and fantasy football that this is just not how

457
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 2: it goes with these guys.

458
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,479
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. I mean, so who do

459
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 1: you personally like? I mean, I think there's some really

460
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 1: interesting names on this list.

461
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think if all things being equal, if

462
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 2: I had to pick a rushing leader, I think I

463
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 2: might pick Mick Chubb. I think that he's maybe the

464
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: best pure runner in the league right now. Their offensive

465
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 2: line is clearly the best in the league. The downside

466
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: with Chubb is Kareem Hunt, and so you're not quite

467
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 2: getting the volume that you'd like there. But I think

468
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: that the amount that they're going to rush and as

469
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 2: much as they're going to have the offense and have

470
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: the ball on offense helps to balance that a little bit.

471
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: So I think Chubb could have a huge season at

472
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: plus seven hundred. I don't know if I love the

473
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 2: possibility there, just because rushing leaders it's so much about volume,

474
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 2: and running backs are so volatile, and this extra game

475
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 2: is going to make running backs, I think even harder

476
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 2: because it's like, who's going to even play all seventeen

477
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 2: games at running back? You're taking such a pounding all

478
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,479
Speaker 2: season long. So if I had to just pick someone

479
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 2: straight up, I think Chubb would be my favorite, But

480
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 2: I'm not even sure if I like him at seven hundred.

481
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 2: I've got a few other longer guys to go. But

482
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 2: do you have anyone that your is your favorite?

483
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: Actually, I was gonna say Chubb as well. And I

484
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: think one of the reasons why like Chubb is because

485
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 1: when you're picking for something like this, you want a

486
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: team that's good, who's going to be able to milk

487
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 1: the clock. And I think the biggest problem is that

488
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: he's in a time share with Kareem Hunt, So I

489
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: mean it almost kills it there. I think that's that's

490
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: my biggest issue. I think if I had to take

491
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: a long shot, i'd be leaning on somebody like I

492
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 1: think Najie Harris is going to be the guy in Pittsburgh.

493
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: So I mean at twenty eight hundred, it's not a

494
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: bad thing. You got to be worried about their offensive line.

495
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not.

496
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: This is not this is not an easy year for

497
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: this one.

498
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie to Yeah, Well, talk to me

499
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,479
Speaker 2: about the guy that I wanted to go for on

500
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: this one. But I have a hard time looking at

501
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 2: the numbers. Tell me about your boy, Ezekiel Elliott that

502
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 2: he's I can see him as high as twenty one

503
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 2: to one at some books. And a few years ago,

504
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: Zeke was the guy that you bet here the line

505
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: was so good and Zeke is getting monster carries? Is

506
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 2: he the post Derrick Henry example of why, like you

507
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 2: hit the wall and there's nothing left. Do you think

508
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 2: that he can win this thing?

509
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 1: I think with Zeke like the thing that scares me

510
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 1: about Zeke, And I'm actually like, I'm I feel like

511
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: I have a similar feeling about Zeke that I do

512
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 1: have about Derrick Henry. I mean, this guy has had

513
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 1: a ton of carries. I mean, even looking at him

514
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: as a fan, he had a burst his rookie year

515
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: that he hasn't truly had since. I mean, he fumbled

516
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: the ball a lot last year. A lot of people

517
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: are expecting a bounce back year from him. I don't

518
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 1: think we're going to have the same Ezekiel Elliott we

519
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: saw his first two three years in the league where

520
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 1: they're just running it down on the throat. I think

521
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot more passing, so I

522
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: kind of want to stay away from that. I also

523
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: think Polor has worked his way into the offense. It

524
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me if we saw more of a time

525
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: share between those two.

526
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I came into this one expecting to like Zeke

527
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 2: a lot. He's always a guy that I've enjoyed betting

528
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 2: on this one, but I couldn't quite get there. Here's

529
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 2: my two longer shots that I like. To me, I'm

530
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 2: kind of mostly staying away on this, but maybe nibbling

531
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 2: a little bit on these two long guys. First one

532
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 2: is Gus Edwards at Baltimore. I grabbed this one Sunday

533
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 2: at one hundred to one and at dodds have dropped

534
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 2: a few hours later. I tweeted about it, but still

535
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: fifty to one. I still feel like there's some value there.

536
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 2: So last year, the Ravens like they love to share

537
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 2: with all their running backs, So last year there was

538
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 2: Gus and JK. Dobbins and mark Ingram. Ingram is gone,

539
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: JK Dobbins is hurt. There's not much depth there, so

540
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: that may change. Maybe they'll bring back you know Ingram,

541
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 2: trade for him, or bring some veteran in. But those

542
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 2: three combined last season for three hundred and fifty carries,

543
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 2: eighteen and twenty two yards and seven touchdowns. So I

544
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: really like JK. Dobbins for this a couple weeks ago

545
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 2: before he went out, and so Gus Edwards is not

546
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: quite as good. But he did average five yards of

547
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 2: carrie last year, and I think that you get the

548
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 2: volume upside now, you might get a lot more carries

549
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 2: than you were expecting. So I like Gus Edwards there.

550
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 2: The other one I take a shot on is James

551
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: Robinson in Jacksonville. It's kind of the same argument. I

552
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 2: would not have wanted anything to do with James Robinson

553
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 2: a couple weeks ago. Now, Travis Etienn is out, Carl's

554
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: height is washed, and I Jacksonville ranked dead last in

555
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 2: the NFL in rushing attempts last year, but Robinson still

556
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: went over a thousand yards annually played fourteen games. Their

557
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 2: line is getting a little better. He averaged four and

558
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 2: a half yards of carry. He's at sixty six to

559
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 2: one at bet MGM. So, by no stretch do I

560
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 2: think Edwards or Robinson are going to lead the league

561
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: in rushing. I'm just laying the numbers there. I think

562
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 2: there's a better than the one in the fifty or

563
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: one in sixty six shot that that could payoff. So

564
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 2: I'd rather take a flyer. What do you think you're

565
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 2: one of those could potentially HLP.

566
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm not mad at those I do think

567
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: there's one guy we need to talk about, and I

568
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: think it's interesting we didn't mention him. I'm Christan McCaffrey.

569
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: He's not a guy that I particularly like, just because

570
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,479
Speaker 1: I think he takes such a huge role in the

571
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 1: passing game that he's not a guy who you know,

572
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 1: you're expecting to get fifteen hundred yards on the ground.

573
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: He's a guy who is going to get twelve hundred

574
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 1: yards on the ground and then another ten or thirteen

575
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: in the passing game. So I think that's a guy

576
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 1: that I kind of want to stay away from when

577
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: it comes to this prop. You know, if I had

578
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: to take a flyer on anybody, I'm kind of leaning

579
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: towards Antonio Gibson. I mean, of course he loses. He

580
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 1: loses third down snaps to JD. M kiss It, But

581
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: I mean he's a guy who should have increased vio it.

582
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 1: He only had one hundred and seventy carries last year.

583
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: I have four point seven yards per carry, eleven touchdowns.

584
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 1: I think he's a guy who's going to be the

585
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 1: workforce back there, and then when you have a better quarterback,

586
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 1: he should be able to perform a lot better. You know,

587
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: with them not being able to just stack a box.

588
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: So I think that's a guy kind of like, that's interesting.

589
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 2: Gibson's not a guy that I know a ton about

590
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: right now, so I'm kind of waiting see on him,

591
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,719
Speaker 2: but I'm intrigued by that. I'm with you on McCaffrey.

592
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 2: Rushing yards on its own is just not the thing.

593
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 2: Like McCaffrey is the number one pick in every fantasy

594
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: football draft that's going to happen this weekend, and he

595
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: should be. But because you get everything, you get, the receptions,

596
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: you get, the receiving yards, you get, the touchdowns and

597
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: the receiving touchdowns. If there was one of these props

598
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 2: for most combined yards rushing and receiving, we'd be betting

599
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey. And I wish there was one of those

600
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: because I badly wanted to find a spot here to

601
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 2: talk about my guy Austin Eckler, who has the same

602
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: problem on a smaller scale, and I couldn't shoehorn him

603
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 2: in anywhere. If I was betting McCaffrey just to transition

604
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: us here, i'd rather bet him for rushing touchdowns than yards.

605
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 2: I don't think that the yardage Spike is going to

606
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: be there to lead the league. I could see the touchdowns.

607
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: Last year he only played three games under Matt Ruhle

608
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 2: because he was hurt all year. He had five touchdowns

609
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: in those games, and the touches were there. The previous

610
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 2: year when he had that monstrous season, he had fifteen

611
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns. So I don't hate that he's at plus

612
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: eight to fifty. It's not my top play. I do

613
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 2: have a guy I love on this one. But what

614
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 2: do you think about McCaffrey for this one or any

615
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 2: of the other favorites for rushing touchdowns.

616
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 1: I'm not mad McCaffrey. I'm not mad at that at all.

617
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: I think for this one, you definitely went out of

618
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: avoid guys who weren't Tom Shares, and McCaffrey's the guy,

619
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: So I think that's a good pick. Why don't you

620
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 1: go what you got out out in Jacksonville? Like, what's

621
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: stop of him for winning?

622
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I think Jacksonville is stopping him from winning it.

623
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: Like you're saying you don't want someone in a time share.

624
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: I don't really care about the time share for rushing touchdowns.

625
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 2: Goal line carries aren't time shares. You can time share

626
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 2: all you want to up and down the field, but

627
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 2: we're gonna give it to the guy that gets into

628
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 2: the end zone. Jacksonville is not going to get in

629
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 2: the end zone. That's what's stopping me. Like, I don't

630
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: think they're gonna store it off. Here's the guy that

631
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: I like at this one. This is one of my

632
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 2: favorite plays for the podcast, Aaron Jones. I can see

633
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 2: him at eighteen to one and it's this is a

634
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 2: double Aaron play. We did not talk about Aaron Rodgers

635
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 2: much under our quarterback section. We know you talked about

636
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: how he had like an outlayer year. So Rogers last

637
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 2: season had forty eight touchdowns. Great season. That was a

638
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: nine point one percent touchdown percentage. He's not gonna put

639
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: up that number again. Rogers is awesome. His career is

640
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: a six percent TD rate. You gotta trust me on this.

641
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 2: That is an incredible number. Like, that's as good as anybody.

642
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 2: Nine point one percent is more than fifty percent higher

643
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 2: than that. If Rogers repeated last season but had his

644
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: career touchdown rate instead of his outlayer rate, he would

645
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 2: have had thirty two touchdowns instead of forty eight. And

646
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: guess where the other sixteen touchdowns would have gone to

647
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 2: the running game. And that's why like Aaron j Jones

648
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: because he's already a big rushing touchdown guy. Last three

649
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: seasons he had eight, sixteen and nine. Guess so why

650
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 2: he dropped from sixteen touchdowns to half of that last

651
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: year because Aaron Rodgers was throwing them all and that's random, Like,

652
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 2: that's a randomness that that bumped up. So I like

653
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 2: the Packers. They're going to score a bunch. It's a

654
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: great offense, they've got good blocking. I think that Aaron

655
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 2: Jones has a very good shot at getting to fifteen touchdowns.

656
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: He could even put up a big number on there.

657
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 2: I think eighteen to one is an insane number. I

658
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 2: would put him among the favorites here. So this is

659
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: one of my favorite players. I'm not gonna lie that's

660
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: that one scares me. And I mean I've been an

661
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones fantasy owner for a while.

662
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: I love Aaron Jones. You mentioned he had sixteen touchdowns

663
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. He only had eight last year. I

664
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: think the emergence of AJ Dillon is going to be

665
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: a real problem because I think that's going to be

666
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,239
Speaker 1: a real Tom Share opportunity. I mean, Jamal Williams was

667
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: already vulturing touchdowns, but they drafted aj Dillon into the

668
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: first second round last year, so I just think he's

669
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: a guy that he's gonna take a lot of his

670
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: steps and I don't want to have to deal with that. Yeah.

671
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 2: Well, the Packers drafted Jordan Love in the first round

672
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 2: last year too, so I'm not really too worried about

673
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 2: time shares. I think they're going to play their errands

674
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: if they're getting the job done. But it's fair. I

675
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 2: do think Dylan's going to get some touches. I like Jones.

676
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 2: He's still got the touchdowns last year, even with Jamal

677
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: Williams getting a lot of the touches. Jones is not

678
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: a guy I want to play for yardage. It's a

679
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: touchdowns play here. So I do like Gus Edwards here too,

680
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: same logic as on the other one. He's at forty

681
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 2: to one, so it's a long shot here. It's another one.

682
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,719
Speaker 2: He was eighty to one on Sunday if he grabbed it.

683
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 2: But again, Gus jk and Ingram had seventeen rushing touchdowns

684
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 2: last year and Lamar Jackson had seven. That's twenty four

685
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 2: Ravens rushing touchdowns from the league's top rushing offense, and

686
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: so there's a lot of rushing touchdowns up for grabs.

687
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 2: I think even if another running back comes in, I

688
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: could still see Gus getting a lot of those touchdowns.

689
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 2: So I think that he could be a guy that

690
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 2: easily hits double digits and then who knows from there.

691
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 2: So at forty to one at betmgm, I like that

692
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: one a lot too.

693
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,480
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724
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 2: Let's start out with receiving yardage. This one is interesting

725
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: to me because this is the one that doesn't really

726
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: have a favorite. There are five guys who are kind

727
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 2: of co favorites, but they're all around plus one thousand.

728
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: So DeAndre Hopkins, Stefan Diggs who led the league last year,

729
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, and DeVante Adams. Those are your five.

730
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 2: Those are the guys that going to the top of

731
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: very fantasy draft too. Out of those five, is there

732
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: anyone that you liked to possibly lead the league in yardage? Who?

733
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 1: I mean? I think Stefan Digg is going to continue

734
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 1: to have the value, and I think for me, it's

735
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: kind of hard to go against him. You know, It's

736
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: just I mean, Josh Allen has proven that he can

737
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: throw the ball, so I mean I would lean towards

738
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: him out of everybody. I mean, DeAndre Hopkins is I mean,

739
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: he's been a monster forever, but at some point he

740
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: has to slow down. I'm leaning towards Dave. What do

741
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:25,439
Speaker 1: you think?

742
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, my problem with Diggs and Hopkins not really a problem,

743
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 2: but the slight hesitants is that neither one of them

744
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: really has a high yards per catch, so it's really

745
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 2: a volume play for both of them, and that's okay

746
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: because they're both a very high volume. Diggs led the

747
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: league in receptions and receiving yards last year. But you know,

748
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: I think of Stefan Diggs and I'm thinking of these

749
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,439
Speaker 2: long touchdowns he's catching. But he was only at twelve

750
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 2: point one yards per catch, So this was not like

751
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: he just cut a bunch of bombs. It's not Tyreek

752
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 2: Hill putting up, like, you know, eighty yards in a

753
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 2: split second. You need those one hundred and twenty seven

754
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: catches to get there. Say any thing with Hopkins. Hopkins

755
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 2: is definitely not gonna put up these long catches anymore.

756
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: You're gonna need all those bubble screens and curls, which,

757
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 2: thank god Cliff Klingsbury is the only thing he has

758
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 2: in his playbook is three yard Deandra Hopkins out, so

759
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: you know you're gonna get those. We'll come back to

760
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 2: him on receptions. I assure you, of these five, I'm

761
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 2: not really playing any of them. But if I was

762
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 2: gonna pick one, Tyreek Hills, the guy I think has

763
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 2: the best upside, it's just Mahomes and Tyreek and he's

764
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: gonna be an injury risk potentially he's gonna be a

765
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: risk to have those games where he has like three

766
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 2: catches for twenty yards because the defense just schemed him

767
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: out and it doesn't matter because of the next game,

768
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: he's gonna have like five catches for two hundred yards

769
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 2: in the first quarter again and be like, what's happening

770
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 2: right now? So I just I want the spike. I

771
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 2: want the possibility of just like, oh my god, the

772
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 2: Chiefs defense is awful again and Mahomes is just letting

773
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 2: it rip to Tyreek. And like if somebody told you

774
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill put up a three hundred yard game this year,

775
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 2: I didn't think you'd blink. You'd be like, oh man,

776
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: I gotta see highlights of this game, except we would

777
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 2: have both been watching it live anyway, you know, Like,

778
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 2: like I want te Tyreek could get halfway to leading

779
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 2: the league in yardage on like three games. He could

780
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 2: just have like one towards stretch and get there. So

781
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 2: if I was gonna play one of these guys, he's

782
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 2: just his own thing. I'm all about volume on all

783
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: these plays, but Tyre Week can just break the game with,

784
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 2: you know, with a couple of plays. So to me,

785
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: that's the guy of those five. Outside of those five,

786
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 2: who else catches your eye as far as receivers going yardage?

787
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: Outside of those guys, I'm looking more towards Justin Jefferson.

788
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I love this guy. This guy, he's probably

789
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 1: had the best rookie season from a wide receiver we

790
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: saw since Randy Moss. I got Yeah, like I just

791
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: for me. I think he's a guy who could easily,

792
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 1: you know, shatter what he did last year and lead

793
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 1: the lead the league of receiving yards.

794
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 2: I love Justin Jefferson, and not just because I'm Minnesota fan.

795
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 2: He is my pick for this one. He's my top

796
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 2: pick here. So I've got a couple of other names,

797
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 2: but Jefferson is top of the list. You can get

798
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 2: him as high as fourteen to one odds. Last year

799
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 2: as a rookie fourteen hundred yards on eighty eight catches.

800
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 2: That is a monster season for anybody, let alone a rookie.

801
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: And here's the thing, there's upside here because Number one,

802
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 2: Jefferson started slow. He wasn't doing much the first few games.

803
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: He really came on the second half of the season.

804
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 2: Number two, the Vikings didn't even pass that much last year.

805
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 2: They were twenty seventh in the league in passing attempts.

806
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 2: So I'm not saying they're going to suddenly become a

807
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 2: pass heavy team as long as Dalvin Cook is there.

808
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: But it is a new offensive coordinator. It's Baby Kubiak

809
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: instead of Daddy Kubiak, so maybe they open up a

810
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 2: little bit pass a little bit more. The Vikings don't

811
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: really have much else to throw to. Adam Thielen has

812
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: been showing his age and can't stay healthy. There's really

813
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 2: no third receiver. Irv Smith is hurt. Jefferson could get

814
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 2: a huge target share, and granted it's a smaller than

815
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: you like, but I think that there's a shot that

816
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: he could get to like one hundred yards a game basically,

817
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,800
Speaker 2: and he's young, he's healthy. I think there's a monster

818
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 2: upside with him. So I like Jefferson. Let me give

819
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 2: you a couple of other names. One of them that

820
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna like because it's from your team.

821
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 2: I think Cede Lamb could be a really good player

822
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: for a lot of these receiving props. Right now, the

823
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: books are all pricing Amari Cooper ahead of Cede Lamb.

824
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: I think that's a mistake. I think Lamb is going

825
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: to emerge as the top receiver in Dallas, So you're

826
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 2: getting a value there, and it's all the same stuff

827
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 2: we talked about with Dak Prescott. We know that we're

828
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 2: going to pass a lot, we know the defense is bad,

829
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: we know they're going to play super fast, ceedee, Lamb

830
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 2: last year was way better with Dak than without Duh.

831
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 2: He averaged almost fifteen yards per catch with Dak Prescott

832
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 2: and then dropped only eleven yards per catch afterward, So

833
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 2: the season numbers didn't end up being so overwhelming. But

834
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 2: I think that if he takes the volume that we

835
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 2: expect from them as a wide receiver one, I think

836
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: he could have a huge season. The other guy, like

837
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,879
Speaker 2: in that same division is I think Terry McLaurin could

838
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,919
Speaker 2: have a really big breakout season. So that's my guy

839
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 2: for Washington. You're on Gibson. I like McLaurin. He dropped

840
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 2: from almost sixteen yards of catch as a rookie to

841
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 2: under thirteen last year. And guess why, it's because, like

842
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 2: me and you were the quarterbacks throwing to him last year.

843
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 2: Like we both retired, we played a couple of games

844
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,439
Speaker 2: each and now we're doing our podcast career. But Ryan

845
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick is like an actual NFL quarterback and his dude

846
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 2: is like top twenty all time in passing yards, like

847
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 2: he's been around the horn a little bit. And I

848
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 2: like the marriage with Scottie Turner there. That's going to

849
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: be a very aggressive, high flying attack. So I think

850
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 2: where he had some long passes to McLaurin, and honestly,

851
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 2: even just the offense not completely sucking means they're going

852
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 2: to be on the field a little bit more rather

853
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: than just playing three plays and punting it away again.

854
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 2: And so I think that there's a big chance for

855
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 2: a volume increased there. So mclaurin's at twenty to one,

856
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 2: and to me, take all three of those, I'm gonna

857
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 2: take Jefferson, Cede Lamb and McLaurin. Get a little piece

858
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 2: of each one of them, and I feel good about

859
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 2: my chances. Yeah.

860
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: I really like that CD Lamblin, especially with Mary Cooper,

861
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: is getting up there on a s getting a little long

862
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: into two and I think CD could really take over

863
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: with them opportion. I like that.

864
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,240
Speaker 2: All right, let me give you two quick long shots

865
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 2: here and then we'll move two touchdowns and receptions and

866
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 2: wrap this thing up. T Higgins you can get as

867
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 2: up to as I've seen, as high as sixty to one.

868
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 2: I think everyone's just assuming Jamar Chase is gonna be

869
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 2: the guy in Cincinnati. But Higgins actually surprising. He had

870
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 2: a really nice number his last year. He put up

871
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: nine hundred and eight yards and six touchdowns. He improved

872
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 2: a lot in the second half. Joe Burrow led the

873
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 2: league in passing attempts when he was healthy last year.

874
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 2: So I think Cincinnati could put up big volume and

875
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: Higgins could be the lead receiver there. I take a

876
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 2: flyer on him. The other one that's just crazy, but

877
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 2: you know me, two hundred to one Juju Smith Schuster,

878
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 2: you can get him as just a complete outlier. So look,

879
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 2: I know Deontay Johnson is the guy that's getting all

880
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:00,919
Speaker 2: the targets there, but he kind of stunt last year,

881
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 2: Like when when did Deantay Johnson not drop the ball?

882
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 2: Like every single time that dude was scring things up.

883
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: Chase Claypool had a couple of big games, but also

884
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 2: a super inefficient Juju a couple of years ago put

885
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: up one hundred and eleven catches for fourteen hundred and

886
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 2: twenty six yards. So we've seen it before. If Big

887
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 2: Ben is healthy, we know that they're going to be

888
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: a big passing offense. And you know, this one could

889
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 2: be d a way. We could get like three weeks

890
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 2: into the year and Juju was like fifth on the

891
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 2: depth chart and just completely buried. I'm well aware, but

892
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 2: at two hundred to one, I'm gonna take a shot

893
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 2: on it.

894
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not mad at that. I'm not mad at that.

895
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's let's transition to receiving touchdowns here.

896
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams is the guy to talk about. First. DeVante

897
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 2: had eighteen touchdowns last year. That wasn't only fourteen games too,

898
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 2: so that was tied for the third most in NFL history,

899
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: which I kind of didn't realize just how good of

900
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 2: a season that was. So Adams has been a double

901
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:02,359
Speaker 2: digit touchdowns for the last five years. The thing is, though,

902
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 2: it's the same argument against Aaron Rodgers. If Rogers is

903
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 2: not going to get that massive touchdown chair, if that's

904
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: going to drop back, you know, regress toward more average,

905
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 2: then Adams are going to come with that. The thing

906
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 2: is that part of why the touchdowns were so high,

907
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: I think is because that Adams Rogers connection was maybe

908
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 2: the most unstoppable play in football last year. You know,

909
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 2: you tune into a Packers game and you just see

910
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 2: Rogers like look down the line, make a little hand signal.

911
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 2: He just knew Adams are going to juke somebody out

912
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 2: of you know, some sucker out of his shoes, like

913
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: out of his job probably, and Rodgers put the ball

914
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 2: on the button. And so Adams, I think, is going

915
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 2: to be in the mix. But the last time someone

916
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: repeated as touchdown champ two years in a row was

917
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,439
Speaker 2: Terrell Owens in two thousand and one, two thousand and two.

918
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 2: Spend a minute here. So I don't love Adams just

919
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 2: for the historical reason. But what do you think about

920
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:55,400
Speaker 2: Adams this year? Is he going to repeat?

921
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 1: No, I don't think he's gonna repeat. I mean, it's

922
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: just not something that typically happens personally. I want to

923
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 1: stay away from that. I'm going to go with DK Metcalf.

924
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,959
Speaker 1: Think he's a big end zone threat. He hasn't had,

925
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: you know, the targets that a lot of guys had,

926
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 1: but I think he gets him this year. So I'm

927
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 1: goa roll with him.

928
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 2: Talked about Russell Wilson's weird half splits last year. First

929
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,400
Speaker 2: half of the season last year, DK had seven hundred

930
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 2: and eighty eight yards and eight touchdowns those first eight games,

931
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 2: So he was well on his way to being in

932
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 2: the mix for all these things. And he's one of

933
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 2: the guys that really fell off. So yeah, we'll see

934
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 2: if DK and Russ both get on that same page

935
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 2: again and get the long ball going again, that could

936
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: be massive numbers. I'm all about on this one, much

937
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 2: to nobody's surprise. If I'm in on Tom Brady at

938
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: throwing possibly fifty touchdowns, I want all the bucks. I

939
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:46,320
Speaker 2: just want give me the bucks. Mike Evans is getting.

940
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 2: You get him at fourteen to one. Mike Evans is

941
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: six foot five and ally is going to be a

942
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 2: touchdown guy. He's got a career eleven and a half

943
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 2: percent touchdown rate, which is a massive fur receiver last

944
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 2: year almost nineteen percent, which should scream huge outlier and regression,

945
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: except that it's Tom Brady and it's Mike Evans, and

946
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 2: both of them don't regress. They always get the touchdowns.

947
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,399
Speaker 2: So he had thirteen touchdowns last year, career high, even

948
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 2: though they had seventy catches so normally that defies all

949
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 2: logic numbers. That should be a guy to fade. But

950
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 2: I like him. I'm just going to keep picking bucks.

951
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 2: I like Chris Godwin. You can get him at twenty eight

952
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 2: to one, you know how else? I like Antonio Brown

953
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 2: sixty six to one at bet MGM, Are we sure,

954
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 2: like totally sure that Antonio Brown's not just going to

955
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 2: be the top receiver on this team? Like, are we

956
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 2: totally sure? Because Tom Brady loves the dude? And Brady

957
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 2: has played with him now enough games that Brown has

958
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 2: a nine and a half touchdown pace for a season

959
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 2: In games with Brady, he loves them. He throws it

960
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 2: to him a lot. The last time Brown played the

961
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: whole season, he led the league in touchdowns. Like, is

962
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: it possible that we get like three weeks from now

963
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 2: and we're like, oh my god, how did people not

964
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 2: go all over Antonio Brown at sixty six to one?

965
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 2: This guy's the best receiver generation.

966
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 1: You know what? It is just a lot of mouths

967
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 1: to feed there. It's a lot of I mean, and

968
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:10,360
Speaker 1: I mean you still got Gronk there, you got Mike Evans,

969
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 1: you got got you got go win. It's just it's

970
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: you got so many guys out there, and then you

971
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:17,240
Speaker 1: still got you got guys coming out of the backfield.

972
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: I just I don't know how you play that.

973
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 2: So it is, Yeah, I'm gonna scatter and a bunch

974
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 2: of them. Gronk is at sixty six to one two,

975
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: I don't know. If I don't play that one, I'd

976
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 2: rather put more on Antonio Brown at the same odds.

977
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 2: Gronk could just only has so much left. Even though,

978
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 2: like Gronk could put up like a fifty percent touchdown

979
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:35,359
Speaker 2: rate this year, and I just be like, oh, yeah,

980
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: sure it's Gronk. This is what he does. So yeah,

981
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 2: it's a lot of mouths to feed. I'm just happy

982
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 2: that Tom Brady is the one feeding them. If Tom's

983
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,959
Speaker 2: got fifty touchdowns to give out, he can give ten

984
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,760
Speaker 2: for Gronk, ten for Brown, ten for Evans. Like Oprah

985
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 2: Winfrey up in here, he's just giving everybody gets a touchdown,

986
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 2: just giving them out to everyone. So I want a

987
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 2: piece of those bucks. I want to get my money

988
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 2: in on them. Got anyone else on touchdowns? Before we

989
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: hit some receptions, wrap.

990
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 1: Up a flyer on somebody. Maybe you maybe you try

991
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: like Wiler or something like that. I mean, he's he's

992
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: the big guy, and but I mean I don't really

993
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:10,919
Speaker 1: want to take.

994
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 2: A tight end. Yeah to me too, that's a great

995
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 2: transition for us because I think if you want to

996
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 2: bet on the waller, the way to do that is

997
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 2: on receptions because he's going to be you know, he's

998
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 2: going to catch all those passes from Captain checkdown out

999
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: there Derek Carr in Las Vegas. So I think that

1000
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 2: he could be a guy for receptions. Travis kelce is

1001
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 2: a guy that you might like for receptions. So as

1002
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 2: far as just number of receptions, this is our last

1003
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 2: one here to wrap up. Travis Kelcey, DeVante Adams, Stefon Diggs,

1004
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 2: and DeAndre Hopkins. Those are the four names that are

1005
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: actually like a pretty big favorite above everyone else here.

1006
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 2: So a couple of things that are interesting. So Stefan

1007
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 2: Diggs led this one last year one hundred and twenty seven.

1008
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 2: Here's what's fascinating. Five of the last twelve people that

1009
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 2: led the league in receptions had already done it before,

1010
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 2: So normally you'd think, oh, Diggs was great, he's not

1011
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: going to do it again. That's how we think of

1012
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 2: the rest of these history says the other way. On

1013
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 2: this one, History says Diggs was great, he might do

1014
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 2: it again, and there's really no one else that could

1015
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 2: repeat here. So I think that that's interesting. Although AFC

1016
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 2: East has some really tough defensive coaches, and you know,

1017
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 2: New England and Miami have great corners, so I don't

1018
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 2: know that I would bat him to do it again.

1019
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 2: But I think, you know, at these guys, these favorites

1020
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 2: are mostly around like a plus six hundred range. I

1021
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 2: think that that's fair. Of those four, the guy that

1022
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 2: I like, if I was gonna pick a favorite, is

1023
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 2: Dandard Hopkins. I just feel like, to me, until we

1024
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 2: see otherwise, he's the default answer here. Hopkins has one

1025
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty or more targets and six straight seasons

1026
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 2: right now, and his catch rate has gone a way up.

1027
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,320
Speaker 2: He's been seventy one percent the last three years. They're

1028
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 2: just throwing to him all the time. It's like it's

1029
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: written into his contract that he's got to have is

1030
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 2: like ten, you know, targets every single game. So the

1031
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:54,720
Speaker 2: last three years, Hopkins has averaged at least six point

1032
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 2: nine catches per game each year, six point nine catches

1033
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 2: per game. Seventeen game, that's one hundred and twenty catches.

1034
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 2: I think Hopkins is going to be in the top five.

1035
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 2: You just have to hope that you beat out the

1036
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 2: next people. So I kind of like Hopkins. If I'm

1037
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 2: playing a favorite here, any of those names catch your

1038
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 2: attention at though.

1039
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of rolling with you, Gere on Hopkins.

1040
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: I think you can't lose there, so ugh, I think.

1041
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: I mean, for me, I'm rolling with Diggs. Man. I

1042
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:22,800
Speaker 1: just think the volume is always going to be there.

1043
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 1: He's the guy over there. The thing what Hopkins is,

1044
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: I think they like to spread They like to spread

1045
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 1: things out. I mean, you know, you got aj Green there.

1046
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 1: I mean, Hopkins is the guy. But I really like Diggs.

1047
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 1: I think he's just going to be a target monster

1048
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 1: for as long as he's in Buffalo. I think ESPN

1049
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,959
Speaker 1: is projecting him at one hundred and sixty targets this year,

1050
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: So you can't lose with that.

1051
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. To me, I'm not about playing the favorites usually

1052
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 2: on these So if you're going to play a favorite,

1053
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:53,799
Speaker 2: this is not a bad one to do it. The

1054
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,959
Speaker 2: favorites usually are good shape on reception, so I don't

1055
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 2: hate Diggs, I don't hate Hopkins. To me, I'm gonna

1056
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 2: take three eyes again. Justin Jefferson has won Ceedee Lamb

1057
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 2: is one. I can see Jefferson at twenty three to

1058
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 2: one odds and Lambas highest forty four to one odds.

1059
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 2: Same argument as we said before. I think there's gonna

1060
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 2: be a lot of volume there and I think that

1061
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 2: there could be a chance for just you know, a

1062
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 2: big receptions number. The other guy I'm going to add

1063
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 2: this time as set of McLaurin. I like Keenan Allen here.

1064
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen is always a big receptions guy. He's had

1065
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 2: ninety seven catches or more in four straight seasons. Last

1066
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 2: year he had ten double digit target games and only

1067
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 2: fourteen games that he played. And here's the other thing,

1068
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 2: Joe Lombardi Joel Lombardi has over his decade with the Saints.

1069
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 2: He had a lot of those years where Drew Brees

1070
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:42,520
Speaker 2: led the league in passing yards. He also was there

1071
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 2: when Michael Thomas led the league in receptions. He was

1072
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 2: the guy before Diggs did it. Last year it was

1073
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 2: Thomas and then Thomas again. Including Thomas had one hundred

1074
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 2: and forty seven receptions in twenty nineteen, which was the record.

1075
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 2: So Alan already catches a ton of passes. He's already

1076
00:50:57,520 --> 00:51:00,399
Speaker 2: the guy that Herbert likes to go to. I've found

1077
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 2: him as high as seventeen to one. So to me,

1078
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna, you know, build my triumvirate again. I'm gonna

1079
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 2: take Lamb and Jefferson. But I think of the three,

1080
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 2: I like Ellen the best. I think he could put

1081
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 2: up a big number here.

1082
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 1: I mean he is, Yeah, I definitely could see that.

1083
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 1: I can definitely see that. I think if there's another

1084
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 1: guy that I had to choose from, I think the

1085
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: favorites are gonna like probably went out here more so

1086
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: than any long shots.

1087
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, this, I'd like some of the other ones. If

1088
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 2: you want to bet a favorite somewhere, this is a

1089
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: spot to better favorite. I'll just say this though, When

1090
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 2: these guys are around like six hundred or so, if

1091
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 2: you're gonna bet a favorite, if you want to bet

1092
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 2: Digs or Hopkins, that's it. You're done. You can't play

1093
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 2: any the other names. You know, if if you want

1094
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 2: to bet Hopkins and Digs, it's a bad play because

1095
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 2: now you've just watered down your odds too. Much and

1096
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 2: it's just not worth it anymore. So that's the reason

1097
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 2: for me. I would rather get my money on, you know,

1098
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 2: a few guys and give myself multiple outs. But if

1099
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 2: you want to play these guys, you've got to pick

1100
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 2: one and then just going on it. So like for me,

1101
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 2: when I got Tom Brady at five to one passing touchdowns,

1102
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 2: I'm not playing anyone else on that one. No long shots,

1103
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 2: no other nibbles. If I'm gonna play a five to one,

1104
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 2: that's it. I'm done and i gotta go on to

1105
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 2: the next stat leader. So I guess that's a good

1106
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: way for us to transition.

1107
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 1: To Actually, you know, one thing I noticed is that

1108
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 1: I'm really interested in seeing who is Matthew Stafford's favorite

1109
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 1: target out of Cooper Cup and Robert Woods. I mean,

1110
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 1: because I mean we've seen him. He's been known to

1111
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 1: just target you know, one guy, whether that's you know,

1112
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: Kitty Galladay or it's Calvin Johnson in his problem. I mean,

1113
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 1: he's gonna he's gonna find a guy and target him.

1114
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 1: So I'm really interested in that. I mean, and both

1115
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:44,760
Speaker 1: Cooper Cupp and Robert Woods have had over one hundred

1116
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: targets the last So yeah.

1117
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 2: I like that I wrote about Cooper Cupp. He was

1118
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 2: a guy that I was expecting to be really high

1119
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 2: on here, and I do think he's gonna put up

1120
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 2: a big number. To me, Cooper Cup, the guy that

1121
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 2: you're looking for here is not Kelvin Johnson or Galladay,

1122
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:04,840
Speaker 2: it's Golden Tate. Golden Tate had like ninety eight receptions.

1123
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 2: I forget the number ninety something for four straight years

1124
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:09,800
Speaker 2: with Stafford doing to him, and that's out of the slot,

1125
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 2: and that's where Cooper Cup lives. So I think he's

1126
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 2: going to get a lot of receptions. Woods has been

1127
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 2: really consistent but doesn't seem to have quite the same ceiling.

1128
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 2: I could see Cup getting a lot of those like

1129
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 2: third down catches. The only problem is that the books

1130
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 2: have seen the same thing as me, and same thing

1131
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 2: you're talking about. So Cup is at twenty to one.

1132
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 2: I gotta be honest. I thought he's going to be

1133
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: like thirty five or forty, and I would totally have

1134
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:34,839
Speaker 2: had him in my list. At twenty to one, He's

1135
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 2: the ninth favorite on here, so I'd rather go a

1136
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 2: little further down the list on it. But I do

1137
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 2: like Cup. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see

1138
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:44,919
Speaker 2: I had him on my list. You know, we didn't

1139
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 2: have any real long shots on this one, but he's

1140
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 2: about kind of one of the longest shots that I

1141
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 2: could see, you know, playing out that one could definitely hit.

1142
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 2: So to wrap up here, let's just review quick some

1143
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 2: best bets from today. So my favorite picks out of

1144
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 2: everything we talked about, Tom Brady five to one passing touchdowns.

1145
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 2: I just think that Brady is the big favorite there. Brady,

1146
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,319
Speaker 2: I think is the big MVP favorite, So make sure

1147
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 2: to get that in as well. Aaron Jones eighteen to

1148
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 2: one to leave the league in rushing touchdowns. I think

1149
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 2: the number is way off. I think he should be

1150
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 2: down to like eight to one or something. And then

1151
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson fourteen to one for receiving yards. So those

1152
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 2: are my favorite bets from today. Raheem, whatever what stood

1153
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:25,359
Speaker 2: out for you?

1154
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:28,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the thing that stoos out for

1155
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: me is I'm gonna go with Justin Herbert plus twelve

1156
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:34,279
Speaker 1: hundred on the passing yards. I think this is like

1157
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 1: I said before, it is the Chargers defense. I don't

1158
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 1: expect to be really really great. I'm gonna go with

1159
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Stefan Diggs plus five hundred on

1160
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:46,919
Speaker 1: most receptions, and I think for the final one, I'm

1161
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 1: gonna go with I'm gonna going with Nick Chubb. Yeah, like,

1162
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: excuse me, plus seven hundred on the most rushing yards.

1163
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 1: I think. I think the Browns are gonna be a

1164
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 1: good team. They're gonna be ahead of a lot of games.

1165
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 1: It's gonna be running out the clot Let's go. Let's

1166
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:01,439
Speaker 1: go with Nick Change.

1167
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,240
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like those picks. I think that you've chosen

1168
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:07,320
Speaker 2: three picks that have a very realistic chance of leading

1169
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 2: in each of their categories. My strategy is a little bit.

1170
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 2: I think Brady has a pretty good chance, but otherwise

1171
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 2: I'm looking to play a little bit longer odds and

1172
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 2: hope for the big win. But when is that not

1173
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:18,919
Speaker 2: the case? Between me and you getting our bets out there,

1174
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 2: Let's give the people a long shot that we love.

1175
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 2: We talked about a lot of long shots here. I

1176
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 2: like Us Edwards a lot. I like that Jimmy Garoppolo.

1177
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 2: I think my favorite long shot for me is that

1178
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 2: Antonio Brown sixty six to one. I just feel like

1179
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 2: that's a number that if it were, if things look

1180
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 2: right in a couple of weeks, that's a number that

1181
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 2: could make a lot of us feel very foolish for

1182
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 2: missing out on it. So to me, that would be

1183
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 2: my favorite long shot of anything here. If you can

1184
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 2: only pick one long shot from all the stuff we've

1185
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 2: talked about, who's your guy one long shot? I'm gonna

1186
00:55:50,719 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 2: go with Ooh.

1187
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 1: You know I'm I'm gonna go with the rookie, not

1188
00:55:56,400 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: g Harris. Plus twenty eight hundred most rushing yard. I mean,

1189
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 1: the Stills could run the ball all last year. I'm

1190
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 1: not that high on his offensive line, but he's gonna be.

1191
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 1: He's going to be the guy in Pittsburgh this year.

1192
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 1: I mean Big Ben through the ball five hundred times

1193
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 1: last year. They got to run the ball. He's not

1194
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:16,839
Speaker 1: really in a Tom Share. He's running the ball. Going

1195
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 1: with Najiritt.

1196
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 2: I love it. I love that. Plus twenty one hundred

1197
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:22,759
Speaker 2: is your version of the biggest long shot, and plus

1198
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 2: twenty one hundred is my best bets. If that does

1199
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 2: not sum up exactly who both of us are is better,

1200
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 2: it's I don't know what does.

1201
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 1: That always tell people? You're I'm echi Rosuzuki. I'm just

1202
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 1: trying to hit singles and your Steph Curry and entirely

1203
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 1: the sport pull it up from half court.

1204
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 2: That's right. Well, finally, at long last, that is going

1205
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 2: to wrap it up for our season stat leaders and

1206
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:48,759
Speaker 2: for all of our preseason NFL preview here at the

1207
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast. Make sure to check out everything else

1208
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 2: on the feeds to get caught up for the season.

1209
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 2: Over the long weekend. You got the AFC and NFC

1210
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 2: preview blitzes from Raheem and me. Got win totals from

1211
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 2: Raybon and Kerner in the Fantasy Flex podcast. You get

1212
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:06,319
Speaker 2: everything you need for your fantasy draft. Make sure to

1213
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:08,759
Speaker 2: download our award winning app. You can find all the

1214
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 2: full length articles we're talking about there breaking down all

1215
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 2: the stat leaders. You can see Raheem's article about the

1216
00:57:14,360 --> 00:57:16,919
Speaker 2: Curse of the three seventy. I will have a full

1217
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 2: season of preview breakdown coming next week. Next week, Real Football.

1218
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 2: Next week. We made it. We made it to Real Football.

1219
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 2: Tune in right here at the Action Every podcast Wednesday

1220
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 2: for Raybon and Stockey's NFL betting guide and six pack.

1221
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 2: Raheem and I will be back on Friday for a

1222
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:37,080
Speaker 2: quick run on the slate into the weekend, and then

1223
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 2: we will join you first thing Monday morning to talk

1224
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 2: Monday Night football and all the betting action from Sunday.

1225
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:49,040
Speaker 2: Week one Football is back. We made it. Please rate, subscribe,

1226
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 2: and review, enjoy your Labor Day weekend for Raheem Palmer.

1227
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:56,440
Speaker 2: I'm Brandon Anderson and this has been the Action Network podcast.

1228
00:57:56,840 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 2: We will see you in Week one.

1229
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 1: SAMs to the Scales, eadments to the Scales, SA