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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Speaker 1: We've got part two of depth chart Dilemmas on deck

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Speaker 1: for you today, breaking down the murkiest wide receiver rooms

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Speaker 1: from around the NFL. In part one, we did cover

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Speaker 1: running backs, so make sure you go back check out

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Speaker 1: that episode if you haven't already. I'm your host Seth Wilcock,

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Speaker 1: and today I'm joined by the boys, Pat fitz Morris

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Speaker 1: and Derek Brown. Debro As noted, it's all about wide

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Speaker 1: receivers in this particular program. Really the bread of the

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Speaker 1: fantasy football sandwich, if you would, meaning it's tough to

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Speaker 1: win without good ones. Is that a fair analogy? And

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Speaker 1: what's your one on one a sandwiches?

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Speaker 2: My friend?

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Speaker 3: Oh, I think I'm more on the meat side of that.

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Speaker 3: And the one on one of sandwiches hot dog?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 1: Oh no, come on.

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Speaker 4: In there, baby, sandwich. Just leave it with that and

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Speaker 4: I'll walk away.

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Speaker 2: Pat, how are you?

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Speaker 1: And do you have any sandwich or bread related takes to.

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Speaker 2: Get out of the way at the top here?

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Speaker 5: Oh? Man?

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Speaker 6: And doing well? And I'm off carbs right now, so

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Speaker 6: now you're just making Yeah, just another couple of weeks,

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Speaker 6: but man, you're making me think of how much I

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Speaker 6: could go for an Italian sub right now? And uh,

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Speaker 6: you know the one O two of sandwiches. Maybe a

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Speaker 6: good Ruben. I do like me a good ruben.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 1: I agree that the crowd on the sandwich is always

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Speaker 1: good for me. Out here and in Western we also

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Speaker 1: puts on the sandwich. Have you tried a Primanny brother sandwich,

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Speaker 1: either of you guys with the slaw right on?

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Speaker 6: I have not been saying slaw and fries right. Yes,

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Speaker 6: they put it all right on the sub.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I have to get to Primancy Brothers in Pittsburgh. That

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Speaker 6: is a life goal that I have yet to fulfill.

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Speaker 4: Come on down, never never, kroud guy. Sorry, I'm not sorry.

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Speaker 2: I think we also got into this foundation.

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Speaker 3: Forget it all.

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Speaker 6: I p as toss them all in the same You'll

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Speaker 6: get those adult in one of these days.

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Speaker 4: Man, And now the role but ketchup.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I'm not saying to put it on your freaking eggs,

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Speaker 3: and I'm not saying to put it on steak.

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Speaker 4: There ain't unrolled with ketchup.

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Speaker 2: No, not a sandwich. That's that's like a blow is okay?

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Speaker 1: Come on, okay, okay, all right, well, we've got a

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Speaker 1: breakdown of the five messiest wide receiver rooms coming your

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Speaker 1: way today, and as always before we jump in. If

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Speaker 1: you want more fans football takes, if you want more

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Speaker 1: sandwich and food takes, make sure you're tuning in here

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Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel or listening on the

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Speaker 1: podcast feed on the Reggie. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: the poor easiest freeway supporters. Give this video a thumbs up.

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Speaker 1: If you do, just have a content make sure you're

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Speaker 1: subscribing if you're new. Let's go ahead and start boys

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Speaker 1: in the Bay Area, where things got a lot more

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Speaker 1: complicated recently. We all expected Brandon Au to land on

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Speaker 1: the pup to start camp after coming off that torn

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Speaker 1: acl last season. However, we now have second year wide

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Speaker 1: receiver Ricky Piersoll, a popular breakout candidate, also placed on

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Speaker 1: the pup to start training camp with a hamstring injury.

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Speaker 1: And then there's Juwan Jennings, who wants a new deal

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Speaker 1: or to be traded from the four forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: after career seventy seven catch nearly a thousand yard season

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Speaker 1: six touchdowns scored in twenty twenty four for him, pat

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Speaker 1: what looked like in appealing trio mid round targets. Now

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Speaker 1: peers be a potential disaster. How do you sort it out?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, everyone's either unhappy or hurt seth. And when they

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Speaker 6: are healthy, they're gonna be sharing targets with George Kittle

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Speaker 6: and Christian McCaffrey. So this is a messy room without question.

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Speaker 6: And it seems like Juwan Jennings is the guy gendering

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Speaker 6: some serious heat out in the Twitter streets. Like every year,

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Speaker 6: there are a few players who inspire the Fantasy analyst

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Speaker 6: crusades where everyone is grabbing a sword and shield and

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Speaker 6: waiting into battle on one side of the other for

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Speaker 6: one player or a couple players, And Juwan Jennings is

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Speaker 6: one of those guys this year. Now, personally, I don't

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Speaker 6: think he's a bad buy at his current price. His

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Speaker 6: ADP is wide receiver thirty nine. I think is ECR

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Speaker 6: is one spot higher. Pretty modest investment for a guy

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Speaker 6: who did pop last year. When given an opportunity. You know,

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Speaker 6: some people say, well, if he didn't have the one

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Speaker 6: hundred and seventy five yard three touchdown game, his numbers

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Speaker 6: wouldn't look so good. But Jennings, he was not bad

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Speaker 6: at like checking in with a little something every week.

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Speaker 6: I think there were only five games where he finished

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Speaker 6: with under fifty receiving yards. I do have to admit, though, Seth,

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Speaker 6: I am a little skeptical about an age twenty seven

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Speaker 6: breakout from a former seventh round draft pick who unquestionably

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Speaker 6: benefited from injuries to other San Francisco wide receivers. We

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Speaker 6: had Ricky Pearsov getting shot and missing time early in

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Speaker 6: the season. We had Brandon Ayuk with a major knee

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Speaker 6: injury missing time later in the season. Jennings averaged two

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Speaker 6: point twenty six yards per ut run last year, which

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Speaker 6: is great, but in his other three seasons he was

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Speaker 6: under one point four to zero yards per rout run,

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Speaker 6: which is pretty terrible. Even with the big yards per

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Speaker 6: route run number, last season, he's up to one point

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Speaker 6: six to two for his career now. Like I know,

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Speaker 6: Ricky Piersoll only averaged one point three one yards per

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Speaker 6: rout run last season. Not a good number, but Piersal

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Speaker 6: did miss a lot of time in the season after

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Speaker 6: being shot, probably needed some time to sort of reintegrate

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Speaker 6: himself into the offense. Didn't play until Week seven, didn't

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Speaker 6: really pop until the last two games, but he popped

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Speaker 6: in a big way. Eight catches one hundred and forty

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Speaker 6: one yards one touchdown in week seventeen, six for sixty

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Speaker 6: nine in a touchdown in Week eighteen. He's the guy

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Speaker 6: I'm slightly more interested in. I think there's more upside

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Speaker 6: from this former first rounder who's pretty athletic than there

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Speaker 6: is from Jennings, And I'm just not real interested in.

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Speaker 6: Ayuku's probably gonna open the regular season on pop, missed

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Speaker 6: the first six weeks, and probably need some time to

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Speaker 6: get in after that. Like just a guy, You're probably

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Speaker 6: not comfortably starting until week ten at the earliest.

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Speaker 5: No, thanks, de Bro.

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Speaker 1: This is almost kind of a fantasy philosophy question in

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Speaker 1: a way, because let's throw Ayuk out for a second.

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Speaker 1: Let's assume Jawan Jennings starts the season as the team's

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Speaker 1: X receiver. Ricky Piersoll probably more manned the flanker in

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Speaker 1: two wide receiver sets in the slot in three wider sets,

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Speaker 1: kind of that Deebo Samuel s frule. If you would, so,

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Speaker 1: which do you prefer Jennings at the X at wide

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Speaker 1: receiver thirty eight in ECR or pearsaw opens on the

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Speaker 1: pup potentially in that Samuel role wide receiver forty six

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Speaker 1: in ECR, I use two spots behind him at forty eight.

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Speaker 3: I'm taking shots on both Pearsol and Jennings, Okay, I

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Speaker 3: think straight up, I mean it just some of this

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Speaker 3: kind of depends on what we don't know right now

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Speaker 3: with Pearsol's hamstring injury, assuming because he could start the

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Speaker 3: camp on the pup and come off at any time,

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Speaker 3: so like this could be by the time that people

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Speaker 3: are listening to this, because this could be a non factor,

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Speaker 3: like he could be practicing in full and all of

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Speaker 3: that is in the rear view. So for me, I'm

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Speaker 3: not I'm not going to bump down Pearsall too much

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Speaker 3: because of the hamstring injury because there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: unknown there, like severity how long it's going to keep

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Speaker 3: him out, and I think that's going to affect his

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Speaker 3: ADP and his draft stock and his outlook. So kind

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Speaker 3: of approaching this with a glass half full approach, like

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Speaker 3: saying Pearsaw comes back in more short order. I want

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Speaker 3: shots on Jennings am Piersol, Like I think both of

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Speaker 3: them are fantastic values where they're going in that wide

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Speaker 3: receiver three range, and I've got both them ranked like

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Speaker 3: right next to each other basically in the wide receiver

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Speaker 3: three range, and I want to take shots on both

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Speaker 3: of them, like Jennings. To Pat's point, Jennings was fantastic

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Speaker 3: last year and not including in this sample that I'm

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Speaker 3: about to discuss, This isn't including that monster blow up game,

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Speaker 3: and so stating that he was still really freaking good.

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Speaker 3: So weeks ten through eighteen, without Brandon Ayuk in the lineup,

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Speaker 3: you had Jennings commanding a twenty five point one percent

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Speaker 3: target chare, averaging sixty three point four receiving yards per game,

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Speaker 3: two point two yards per route run, a thirty two

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Speaker 3: point seven percent first reach cheer, and point one pin

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Speaker 3: one three first downs per route run. To give people context,

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Speaker 3: if he had kept up that that pace the entirety

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Speaker 3: of the season amongst all wide receivers, of these fifty targets,

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Speaker 3: he would ranked tenth, twenty third, twenty second, eleventh, and

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Speaker 3: fourteenth in those categories. And this is without the blow

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Speaker 3: up game, and he was havingveraging fourteen point one PPR

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Speaker 3: points per game in that process. That would have made

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Speaker 3: him the wide receiver twenty six on the season. So

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Speaker 3: at this price tag, it's free money for Juwan Jennings.

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Speaker 3: And I really like Ricky Piersoll, Like this guy comes

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Speaker 3: to the one hundred foot view. I think the entire

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Speaker 3: San Francisco offense is under price this offseason because people

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Speaker 3: don't know what to do with it. It is an ambiguous

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Speaker 3: situation and play. They're like, can the twenty seven year

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Speaker 3: old breakout keep it up? I mean, he's got a

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Speaker 3: lot in his bag that says that he probably can

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Speaker 3: keep it up. Even if you just look at per

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Speaker 3: route metrics thirty fourth in separation, fourteenth in route win

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Speaker 3: rate last year. Those are really strong metrics for Jennings.

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Speaker 3: So I want to take shots on both these guys

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Speaker 3: across multiple leagues and Ricky Piersol at the Pats point,

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Speaker 3: if I were to tell you take the name of

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Speaker 3: it out, there was a player that walked into the

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Speaker 3: season with hamstring issues and training camp that sent him back.

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Speaker 3: Then the guy gets shot, then he comes back to

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Speaker 3: the lineup. He's a former first round pick. One of

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Speaker 3: the wide receivers is hurt. We don't know what we're

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Speaker 3: gonna get out of him. Another one's a twenty seven

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Speaker 3: year old late breakout and it's still one of the

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Speaker 3: best projected offenses in the NFL, and yet people are

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Speaker 3: drafting him as a wide receiver three. Would that be

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Speaker 3: a player that anybody should be in on, of course,

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Speaker 3: especially talking about he popped it like like Pat said,

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Speaker 3: those final two games almost a twenty two percent target

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Speaker 3: chair two point eight four yards per route run. San

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Speaker 3: Francisco looked at Ricky Pearsall and they said, come on, man,

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Speaker 3: step up. Can you be the guy that we can

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Speaker 3: lean on next year? And Ricky Piersoll answered the bell emphatically.

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Speaker 3: He was the wide receiver seven and wide receiver fourteen

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Speaker 3: and weekly scoring in those two games. So to your point, though,

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Speaker 3: getting back to your original question, Seth, I don't think

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Speaker 3: that Ricky Pearsall is going to play.

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Speaker 4: A debo role.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they have a debo esque player on

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Speaker 3: this roster. I think this is gonna be They're gonna

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Speaker 3: move these guys around, play them in multiple positions. Pearsall

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Speaker 3: played a ton on the outside. I do think that

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Speaker 3: he's probably best inside and playing against off coverage. Just

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Speaker 3: I went back and I watched every single route he

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Speaker 3: ran in all twenty two last year. The route tree

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Speaker 3: they asked him to run. At the beginning of the year,

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Speaker 3: it was a lot of like short area stuff like

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Speaker 3: whip routes, things like that, where it was just like

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Speaker 3: not design touches, but the underneath stuff. You saw his

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Speaker 3: route tree grow as the year progress and I think

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Speaker 3: that is notable and for a player of his talent,

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to be more of the possession

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Speaker 3: guy in this offense and him and him and Jennings

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Speaker 3: are going to do that, and then they're going to

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Speaker 3: create explosives in other ways with other guys that Piersall

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Speaker 3: does still have the athleticism to get downtown, so he

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Speaker 3: can be the field stretcher in some aspects too. But

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Speaker 3: I think this all comes back to I want to

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Speaker 3: draft both these guys, and I'm avoiding Ayuk no telling

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Speaker 3: when he is a full time player or what we

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Speaker 3: get out of him. And even in this offense, Previously,

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Speaker 3: Ayuk has been the single high beater. He's been the

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Speaker 3: guy that like when they face a lot his own coverage,

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Speaker 3: which a lot of teams play zone at above fifty

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Speaker 3: sixty percent of the defensive coverages. Nowadays, you're not seeing

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Speaker 3: as much single high in the NFL these days, Brandon

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Speaker 3: Ayuk has been their go to versus single High, versus Zone.

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Speaker 3: It's been everybody else it was it was the Debo

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Speaker 3: and the Kittle Show versus Zone over the last two years.

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Speaker 3: And I wrote that up in the primer continuously. I

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Speaker 3: think Jennings and Piersol are going to be the answer

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Speaker 3: for answer for that pat hypothetical.

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Speaker 2: You're on the clock.

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Speaker 1: You know that probably whoever you don't take of Jennings

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Speaker 1: and Piersoul. Let's say you have Chris Welsh behind you

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Speaker 1: with with two picks before your next one? Are you

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Speaker 1: taking Jennings? Are you taking Piersaw's at Piersoll for you?

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Speaker 5: I'm taking Pierson, Okay?

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Speaker 6: Can Welsh happy because I think he's a big Jennings

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Speaker 6: same same.

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Speaker 1: Same for you, Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna agree. It's

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Speaker 1: hopefully it works out because last year I did the

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Speaker 1: thing where I took brand Ayyuk. I tried to handcuff

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Speaker 1: him with with Ricky Piersoll and just get some upside there.

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Speaker 1: Didn't get Jennings off the waiver wires, so and I

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Speaker 1: dropped Piersoll before.

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Speaker 2: You know, the breakout happened.

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Speaker 1: So stressful, tough situation out there in the Bay area.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we get some resolution soon this month. If you

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Speaker 1: want a chance to win a sign James Cook Buffalo

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00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,320
Speaker 1: Bill's jersey for free, Curtis is our friends over at

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Speaker 1: Pristine Auction dot com, all you have to do is

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop

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00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,040
Speaker 1: a comment below on any video, and that's it. We

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Speaker 1: will be announcing a winner right here on the channel,

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Speaker 1: so make sure you ring that bell so you can

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Speaker 1: know when new videos are up and to claim your prize.

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Speaker 2: If you are that lucky winner, it's anyone's guess.

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Speaker 1: In Green Bay as the Packers suddenly have one of

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Speaker 1: the deepest wide receiver rooms around. First round rookie Matthew

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Speaker 1: Gold out of Texas, slotman Jaden Reed, Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wicks,

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Speaker 1: third round rookie and former TCU hornfrog Savian Williams, plus

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Speaker 1: Christian Watson, who continues to recover from that torn ACL depro.

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Speaker 1: What's your projected target share for this group and who

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Speaker 1: are your targeting? If anyone in fantasy drafts this summer.

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Speaker 4: This might surprise people.

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Speaker 3: I want to draft a ton of Romeo Dobbs in

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Speaker 3: this passing attack, he he pops in a lot of

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Speaker 3: metrics man like and for Lafleur and his wide receiver

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Speaker 3: by committee approached, dude, Romeo Dobbs was the only was

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Speaker 3: the only guy that had above a seventy five percent

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Speaker 3: route chair last year, he led the team with a

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Speaker 3: seventy six point seven percent route chair. He led the

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Speaker 3: team in target share, He led the team in first

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Speaker 3: read share. He was solid with one point nine zero

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Speaker 3: yards per route run and amongst eighty five qualifying wide receivers,

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Speaker 3: Romeo Dobbs also was twenty fifth and first downs per

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Speaker 3: route run. So the underneath metrics and I know, I'm

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Speaker 3: talking about a guy that was wide receiver forty seven

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Speaker 3: and fantasy points per game. So people are like, why

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Speaker 3: are you excited to draft this guy one? He's basically free.

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Speaker 4: You want it?

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Speaker 3: Like everybody wants to take shots on Jayan Reid and

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Speaker 3: Matthew Golden in this passing attack. I'm just not there, dude,

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Speaker 3: Like I don't think that Matthew Golden is gonna come

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Speaker 3: in and command this giant target chair like last year

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Speaker 3: at Texas, Like he wasn't a thing until Basically, Isaiah

293
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Speaker 3: Bond was kind of phased out of it, and Umikover's

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Speaker 3: career eighteen point seven percent target per route run rate

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Speaker 3: one point eighty five yards per route run outside of

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Speaker 3: the first round draft capital, we'd be excited about any

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Speaker 3: of that. And I'm sorry, I'm calling fraudulent. On the

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Speaker 3: forty yard time, people can go down their own.

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Speaker 2: I cast a ticket that day, so i'll take you.

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Speaker 3: Look, I'm not shading your bets. Okay, good for you.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate the keish in your pocket. But this all

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Speaker 3: goes back to, like, Romeo Dobbs is going to be

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Speaker 3: a full time player in this offense. And I haven't

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Speaker 3: even gotten to the most compelling stat amongst one hundred

305
00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:36,400
Speaker 3: and twelve qualifying wide receivers last year, guys, Romeo Dobbs

306
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:41,720
Speaker 3: eleventh in separation score. He posted the second best route

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Speaker 3: win rate of any wide receiver last year. I think

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Speaker 3: the breakout's coming for Romeo Dobbs man. And I'm not

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Speaker 3: telling you he's gonna be a wide receiver too in fantasy.

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Speaker 3: But if this offense bounces back, Romeo Dobbs is the

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Speaker 3: guy I want to garner from this passing attack because again,

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Speaker 3: I've talked about Golden not high on him. Christian Watson,

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Speaker 3: come on, man like people posted a social media clip

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Speaker 3: he was running at half speed and some Green Bay

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00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,280
Speaker 3: Beat writer was like, look at Christian Watson go. I

316
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Speaker 3: was like, come on, he's not making hard cuts. He's

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Speaker 3: jogging on the field and you're talking about it.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's hype it up.

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Speaker 3: He's not coming back any time soon. Green Bay is

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Speaker 3: conservative with guys coming off of injuries, coming off in

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Speaker 3: ACL they draft and another guy and we haven't even

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Speaker 3: discussed Savion Williams in this wide receiver room and with

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Speaker 3: Jayden Reed, Like, I think at this point we know

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Speaker 3: what we're getting when he's on the field. He's a

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Speaker 3: highly productive and efficient player.

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Speaker 4: We know that.

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Speaker 3: But again, he hasn't been a full time wide receiver.

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Speaker 3: He's I don't think he's going to be a full

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Speaker 3: time wide receiver with this wide receiver by committee approach

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Speaker 3: that Lafour likes to run. Outside of Dubs and Tucker Kraft,

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Speaker 3: this only two guys that over had over seventy percent

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Speaker 3: route per dropback rates. I think that probably comes back

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Speaker 3: and it's gonna be the same thing again this year.

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Speaker 3: So Jane Reid sixty nine point three percent route per drop.

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Speaker 3: That was sixty fourth amongst wide receivers. Unless you run

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Speaker 3: hot on touchdowns and you score eight to twelve touchdowns,

337
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,360
Speaker 3: you just can't live in that world and be anything more,

338
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 3: even in the best ilk as a wide receiver three

339
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Speaker 3: and that's what Jayden Reid was twenty twenty four. Wide

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Speaker 3: receiver twenty six and fantasy points per game. But the

341
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Speaker 3: wide receiver forty three and expected fantasy points per game.

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Speaker 3: I don't even know. And I'm curious Pat's take on this.

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Speaker 3: We have not got to training camp. As the report

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Speaker 3: of this, like as far as like clip season and

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00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 3: hype and stuff like that. I think there is a

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Speaker 3: non zero chance that Green Bay drafted And I'm not

347
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Speaker 3: saying Jaden Reid's direct replacement, but I think he's gonna

348
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,240
Speaker 3: make noise. Tell me that Sadian Williams isn't a more

349
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 3: souped up Ferrari version of the same exact role that

350
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 3: they asked Jayden Reid to play every single week. He's big,

351
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Speaker 3: he's fast. You could use him in the run game,

352
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,520
Speaker 3: you can use him all over the field, in manufacture

353
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Speaker 3: touches and out of the slot I'm not telling you

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00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 3: that Savion's going to take Jane Reid's job, but if

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Speaker 3: that we're sitting in week sixteen and that happens, I'm

356
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,640
Speaker 3: not gonna be surprised, dude. So I'm curious what Pat

357
00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 3: thinks about Savion. But and honestly, this entire wide receiver room,

358
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,119
Speaker 3: because I know he's got his finger on the pulse

359
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:14,359
Speaker 3: of it.

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Speaker 5: Savion is freaky.

361
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Speaker 6: I mean, he's basically Randy Moss with tennis rackets for hands,

362
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 6: is the thing.

363
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 4: He is, dary Bill Diebo Samuel Like, come on.

364
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 6: I mean there, he is an intriguing guy for sure,

365
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 6: and he could cut into some of that gadget work

366
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:34,159
Speaker 6: that Jaden Reid gets the Jets sweeps, the bubble screens,

367
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 6: that sort of stuff, Like a lot of those could

368
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 6: go to savey On Williams Now Like Jayden Reed does

369
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 6: sort of interest me a little bit, just in the

370
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,919
Speaker 6: fact that when he is played with Jordan Love, He's

371
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 6: scored a lot of touchdown chemistry in those games, Like

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Speaker 6: the touchdown rate kind of fell off late last year,

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Speaker 6: but the Packers were going super run heavy.

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Speaker 5: Love just wasn't healthy all year. He had that sprain.

375
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Speaker 6: Mcl early in the season a groin injury was playing

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Speaker 6: through later in the season. I just don't know if

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Speaker 6: he was ever one hundred percent. They're gonna throw more.

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00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 6: I just worry that the targets are chopped up so

379
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Speaker 6: many ways. I think probably no one ends up with

380
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 6: a twenty percent target share in this offense. Sorry, d Bride,

381
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 6: don't see it for Dubbs. Dubs averaged three and a

382
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 6: half catches in forty six yards per game last year.

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Speaker 5: I kind of think that's the ceiling.

384
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 6: The guy who I know, Matt Lafleur has compared Dantavian

385
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 6: Wicks to Devonte Adams in the past. Wicks is really

386
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 6: good at getting open and really terrible at actually making

387
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 6: the catch, And yeah, I mean he was, although Devonte

388
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 6: Adams did have that same trouble his first couple of

389
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 6: years in the league. So maybe there's a big turnaround

390
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 6: coming for Dantavian Wicks in that category. But man, when

391
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,960
Speaker 6: you watch that guy play, it's hard to imagine that

392
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 6: because he is just focus drops galore, and if there's

393
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 6: anyone on him when he's trying to make the catch,

394
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:56,360
Speaker 6: he just can't do it.

395
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Speaker 5: So he's interesting.

396
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Speaker 6: Matthew Golden I think is probably going to be a

397
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 6: big play, boomer bust guy in his rookie year, a

398
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 6: guy who all the film analysts, the Daniel Jeremiahs, the

399
00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 6: Dane Brugler is the mel kiper juniors they all loved

400
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,080
Speaker 6: and had as a top fifteen overall draft pick. But

401
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 6: the production profile in college has a lot of the

402
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 6: fantasy analysts who do work on college prospects just running

403
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 6: up the red flags right and left. So this is

404
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 6: a really messy situation. I'm not sure there is like

405
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 6: weekly starter upside for any of these guys, quite honestly. Okay,

406
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 6: Tucker Craft, Tucker Craft is the guy I'm drafting in

407
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 6: this group.

408
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 4: Scots, I'm taking on this passing attack. It's dubs and it's.

409
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 3: Craft past that you can avoid me with all the

410
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 3: rest of this outside of some savon last round Best

411
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,440
Speaker 3: Ball targeting Pat.

412
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:47,960
Speaker 1: If you're on the clock and you want to take

413
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: one of these Packers receivers, would it be read over

414
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 1: Golden still for you as it stands?

415
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 6: Yeah, Jaden Reid, like in Best Ball, he's He's the

416
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 6: guy I've drafted most Offen, and I've still got you know,

417
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 6: probably no more than twelve percent, Jaden Reid on my

418
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 6: best ball teams.

419
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: Reid currently wide receiver forty five and ECR so quite

420
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 1: the drop from last year when he was in, you know,

421
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 1: the mid wide receiver twenties, and Golden coming in at

422
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 1: wide receiver fifty two and deepro's Guy Romeo all the

423
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 1: way down at wide receiver sixty two. It doesn't get

424
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 1: much easier in Buffalo either, gentlemen, where the Bills they're

425
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: gonna be running out twenty twenty four second rounder Keon

426
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 1: Coleman at the X presumptively Joshua Palmer. He comes over

427
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 1: from the charters, likely gonna man that flanker position, and

428
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: then the truth, Khalil Shakira, he's back in the slot.

429
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 1: They also have former Fantasy favorites Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore

430
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: and Laviskas Chanalt junior plus seventh round rookie Kane Praether

431
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 1: Adam Maryland in the room. Pat, Where do you see

432
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,679
Speaker 1: these high value targets from josh Allen going this season?

433
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 6: I have some interest in Khalil Shakira is sort of

434
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 6: a high floor, low ceiling guy who can be your

435
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 6: wide receiver four flex type, and I have some interest

436
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,360
Speaker 6: in Keon Coleman as a big, big play guy. Probably

437
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,199
Speaker 6: isn't going to command a lot of targets. I mean,

438
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 6: key on average nineteen point two yards per catch and

439
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 6: just under ten yards per target in his rookie year.

440
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 6: He just didn't command a lot of targets. He needs

441
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 6: to get more consistent and earn more targets. But you know,

442
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 6: the Bills don't have anything close to an alpha receiver

443
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 6: on their roster, and I don't know if Keon Kleman

444
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 6: is going to become that this year. I do think

445
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 6: there is some target upside. I'm optimistic he can stay

446
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 6: a little healthier and take a big step forward. But yeah,

447
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 6: I'm not sure we get like the theme in Buffalo,

448
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 6: and I think this is kind of a mantra for

449
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 6: their offense. Everybody eats yeah, like they they give the

450
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 6: ball to three different running backs.

451
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: Yeah.

452
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 6: Yeah, they work in two tight ends and four or

453
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 6: five different receivers. So if we're looking for like big

454
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 6: breakthrough pass catching upside on the Bills roster, we're probably

455
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 6: not going to get it.

456
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,639
Speaker 1: Khalil secure wide receiver, thirty nine in ecre He finished

457
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: at thirty seven overall in points per game last season,

458
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: so feels reasonable. Keon Coleman wide receiver fifty four could

459
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: have been Lad McConkey if if maybe they they didn't move.

460
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 2: Back that year.

461
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 1: And then Joshua Palmer wide receiver seventy one debro Where

462
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 1: do you stand on the Buffalo Bill's pass catching room?

463
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: And I think Pat summed up very well that it

464
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 1: might just be kind of a mixed bag where he

465
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 1: can start these guys here and there, and outside of secure,

466
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 1: there might not be one guy that you're firing into

467
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: your lineup each and every single week.

468
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that that's probably how this goes.

469
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 7: Man.

470
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: I think you look at Shakir and I went deep

471
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 3: in his numbers, like he did see his role grow,

472
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 3: Like weeks seven through seventeen, his target share did bump

473
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 3: up from so weeks one through six it was sixteen

474
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: point three percent that bumped up to twenty three percent

475
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 3: in week seven through seventeen. He averaged fifty seven receiving

476
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 3: yards per game, had almost a twenty eight percent first

477
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 3: reach year. So like if he were to run hot

478
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 3: and touchdowns in this offense, like during that stretch he

479
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: was the wide receiver thirty six some fantasy points per game.

480
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 3: Like if he runs hot with touchdowns, maybe he can

481
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 3: scrape closer to like more of a high end wide

482
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 3: receiver three. But I think that's basically all he's gonna

483
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: be because I still think that targets are gonna get

484
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 3: divvied up to a lot of different players. I think

485
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 3: that Buffalo loves because just considering how they run their offense,

486
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 3: and it's good, it's a good NFL thing, but it's

487
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 3: bad for us in fantasy that they really play the

488
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 3: matchups and they look at all of that and the

489
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 3: targets are going to go to a lot of different places,

490
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: and especially like the part that like, if you've been

491
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 3: playing DFS over the last few years, you're playing like

492
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 3: you're betting touchdowns and stuff whatever. It's one of the

493
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 3: maddening things about Buffalo. When they get into the red zone,

494
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 3: they do all kinds of different stuff. They run trick plays,

495
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 3: they were in Gadget stuff, pop passes, it's Josh Allen,

496
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 3: it's the running backs, it's it's the receivers, it's the

497
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 3: tight end four on the freaking dep part, And you're like,

498
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 3: who is that, oh, dear lord, And that's what happens

499
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: in Buffalo. Now, it's great for them. They score a

500
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 3: crap ton of points. It's just not very conducive to

501
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 3: a lot of fantasy upside. But so Shakier's fine where

502
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 3: he goes. I think he's a decent wide receiver three,

503
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 3: maybe a little bit of more meat on the bone.

504
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 3: I'm out on Keon Coleman just looking at his role

505
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: in this offense. I think that the Bills they drafted

506
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 3: Keon Coleman to be their man coverage beater last year.

507
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: Over the last two seasons, the Buffalo Bills have faced

508
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 3: the third most and the highest man coverage rate in

509
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 3: the entire all. And you look at what Keon Coleman

510
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: did last year. If you look at versus man coverage,

511
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 3: he had a twenty seven percent target per route run

512
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 3: rate versus man. Now against zone do that fell off

513
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 3: table fourteen percent. Nobody's feed their families in fantasyland with

514
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 3: a fourteen percent target per route run rate. And the

515
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 3: thing that I'll worry about with Keon Coleman is he

516
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,719
Speaker 3: wasn't amazing at beating man coverage last year. He wasn't terrible,

517
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: especially with the rookie, But like amongst seventy one qualifying

518
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 3: wide receivers, thirty seventh in separation, forty fourth route win rate.

519
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 3: Maybe he grows in that aspect in his second season,

520
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 3: but to that, I think this is exactly why they

521
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 3: went out and they signed Joshua Palmer to play this

522
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 3: man coverage beating role because Palmer underneath the surface has

523
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 3: been awesome at it. Last year amongst all wide receivers,

524
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 3: he was fifth in route win rate and separation against

525
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 3: man coverage. So I think Palmer is gonna become the

526
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 3: guy that they go to when they face man coverage.

527
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 3: And you're gonna see me writing it up in the primer.

528
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 3: If they're gonna face a lot of man coverage that week,

529
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a josh Palmer week. So

530
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 3: I think, again, this is gonna be very matchup dependent.

531
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 3: And there's nobody in this passing attack that I'm really

532
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 3: high on. I could just tell you I don't want

533
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: to draft Kean Coleman. I don't see the upside for

534
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 3: him that he's gonna be a splash week guy, and

535
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 3: I think Palmer could take his role in this offense.

536
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 3: Shakira is fine where he goes. But again where's the

537
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 3: upside unless he just runs incredibly hot with touchdowns.

538
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 4: Like, could that happen?

539
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: It's possible, But do all the numbers and stuff leave

540
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 3: me to want to draft a lot of Khalil Shakir. No,

541
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be heavy on him. I'm just gonna

542
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 3: mix him in in best ball formats.

543
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what.

544
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: The one thing I kept doing last season was late

545
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: in that playoff stretch. I just kept betting the Keon

546
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 1: Coleman over one and a half receptions. I hope they

547
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 1: don't change that line and they just throw that out

548
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: week one, because I think I'm going right back to it.

549
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 4: Baby.

550
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 1: It's it's not fun. It's not like a you know,

551
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: a high ceiling or anything like that. But it's a

552
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 1: good little sweat there.

553
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 4: I was bet dude.

554
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 3: I was cashing Khalil Shakir overs almost the entire back

555
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 3: half of the season. I think, like you go to

556
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 3: betting pros and you could see, like, what was your

557
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 3: best thing to do? I think I was like seventy percent

558
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 3: on Khalil Shakir overs last year.

559
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 4: It was nice.

560
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 2: Some degenerate stuff right there.

561
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 1: Still debating these wide receivers will be taking questions all

562
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: week on twitch at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy pros

563
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: Ericson and Tom Strock and talk Bestball Mondays at for Eastern.

564
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 1: Myself and Debro answer your questions on Tuesdays and Wednesdays

565
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: at to Eastern, and then we also have some more

566
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: Q and a's coming your ways on Thursdays and Fridays

567
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: at five Eastern. Gives a follow and ask questions live

568
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: on twitch at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy Pros. Let's

569
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: head to Pat's Neck of the Woods where the Chicago

570
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: Bears are all in on making Caleb Williams work under

571
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: center with head coach Ben Johnson now running the show

572
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: DJ Moore.

573
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 2: He's back.

574
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: He's broken one thousand yards four times in his career,

575
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 1: just fell short of that mark a season ago in

576
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: Williams rookie year Roma Doonsday. He also returns after seeing

577
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: one hundred and one targets as a.

578
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 2: Rookie and Missouri product.

579
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 1: Luther Burden the third he enters the fray after being

580
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 1: selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Debro,

581
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: what is the target pecking order in your eyes here

582
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: in Chai toown and who are you circling if anyone

583
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: in fancy drafts.

584
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 3: This is an utter, an absolute mess, dude. Like, I

585
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 3: just at first of all, I want to give a high,

586
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: high level look at this. So with all of the

587
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson's team, we're looking at an offense that we

588
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 3: haven't even seen Caleb Williams support one really good fantasy

589
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: option yet in his career, and now all of a sudden,

590
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: we think he's gonna support what three, four, five options?

591
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 3: Like everybody's like, oh, I need to draft Holston Lovelan,

592
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 3: Oh I need to draft Luther Burdon, Oh DJ Moore,

593
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 3: Oh maybe it's roma doonsay, Like I need to see

594
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams prove that he could support one really good

595
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 3: fantasy option, much less three to four. Like if that happens,

596
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 3: this is has to be like a top three to

597
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 3: five offense. And I just don't know if that happens

598
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 3: for Chicago. So I'm lower like on all of these

599
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: options just in general, like because all of them have warts. Man,

600
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 3: Like I think, if I'm gonna draft anybody out of

601
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 3: this this passing attack, it's probably gonna be Dj Moore

602
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 3: And you could throw all of the per route efficiency

603
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 3: stuff like as far as yards per route run, first

604
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: downs per route run, throw it all in the garbage

605
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 3: can because Caleb Williams was just god awful last year.

606
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 3: It was terrible, So that tanked the efficiency numbers on

607
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 3: a per route basis for basically everybody inside of this

608
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 3: passing attack. But the one thing that didn't change for

609
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 3: Dj Moore is he didn't lose his ability or didn't

610
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: go away his ability to earn targets and volume. I mean,

611
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 3: the guy was still thirteenth in target chair and tenth

612
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: and first read year in this offense. So if I'm

613
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 3: going to make a bet on volume out of this

614
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 3: offense and where volume goes, it's Dj Moore. I think

615
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 3: he's fine at his price. Tag Rome is a guy

616
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 3: I loved as a prospect.

617
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 4: But the problem is.

618
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 3: I cannot analytically, even outside of all of the bad

619
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 3: things that Caleb Williams put this offense through and put

620
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 3: up on film last year, I can't analytically make the

621
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 3: case even in the deeper metrics, for Romadunza and me

622
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 3: to be really high on him, despite even if I

623
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 3: had faith in Caleb Williams this year, Like if you

624
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 3: filter out and if you only accounted for catchable targets,

625
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 3: and you exclude screens in a Dounzay's sample from last year,

626
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: that would still only make him sixty first in yards

627
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 3: per route run first downs out run. He's seventy eighth

628
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 3: in separation, fifty fourth in route win rate. Now I

629
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 3: bring up those two metrics because that's agnostic. He's getting

630
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 3: open on his routes, or he's not getting open his routes.

631
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 3: That's agnostic a bad quarterback player good quarterback play. And

632
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: he was still outside the top fifty wide receivers in

633
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 3: both of those metrics. So it's like, how do I

634
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 3: get really high or over the moon on Romatuon say,

635
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 3: I loved him as a prospect, but it didn't happen,

636
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: and I don't know if it happens this year. And

637
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: Luther Burdon, you just count me out. On the archetype

638
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 3: of this player, I mean, he is a manufactured touch

639
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 3: guy through and through and through. He missed a lot

640
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: of the offseason so far with injuries. I don't know

641
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,719
Speaker 3: when we're going to see him in camp. He's been

642
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 3: a manufactured touch guy, and just the archetype of that

643
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 3: wide receiver has not played out really well in the NFL.

644
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: I'll point everybody to Malachai Corley year last year. I'll

645
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 3: point everybody to Elijah Moore the year before, Andy Isabella

646
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: Rondell Moore. Have any of these guys that have been

647
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 3: highly manufactured touch guys in college, not guys that have

648
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 3: been asked to go out and run and just line

649
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 3: up and route dudes up. They haven't panned out in

650
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 3: the NFL. I would love it, and I hope Luther

651
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: Burden proves me wrong, but I just I don't. I

652
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 3: don't see him like it's not like even at his cost,

653
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 3: it's just not somebody I want to invest in when

654
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: we're talking about three to four options that are diluting

655
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: the target share and we don't know like this could

656
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 3: be one of those offense much like a lafor offense

657
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 3: that's matchup based or Buffalo where it's like every single

658
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 3: week they're utilizing a different guy based off of what

659
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 3: defense they're facing. And the holes that Ben Johnson season

660
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 3: that and that's gonna be maddening. People are like, do

661
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 3: I start him?

662
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 1: Do I not?

663
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 4: Do I start him doing not?

664
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: Oh?

665
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 4: I didn't start him and he blew up?

666
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 5: Oh God? What do I do?

667
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 4: And for me.

668
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: I'm just like, nah, I'm just avoiding this headache outside

669
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 3: of maybe some shots on DJ Moore.

670
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, and Burden, you know, just a tough twenty

671
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 1: twenty four season fourm his production nearly cut in half

672
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: from a great twenty twenty three of Missouri. Obviously, Brady

673
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: Cook kind of in and out of the lineup, weird

674
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 1: offensive scheme down there on the SEC. But still nonetheless

675
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: I'm out on Burden as well. But I know you're

676
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: you were high on Roma doonsay as a prospect and

677
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,719
Speaker 1: wide receiver thirty seven. That's a high end wide receiver

678
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 1: for price tag right now? That that feels right right

679
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: despite all the advanced analytics that the Debro is rightfully

680
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: throwing at us.

681
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,479
Speaker 2: It just makes me want to gravitate towards him.

682
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 6: What say you, Yeah, I'm a little above ADP and

683
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 6: ECR on him, Seth.

684
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 5: The funny thing is someone is.

685
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 6: Always higher on me if I get into an analyst

686
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 6: draft with like they never get him in those. But

687
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 6: I think there's a chance I might get him in

688
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 6: a couple of home league drafts because I don't think

689
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 6: the public at large is quite as high on on

690
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 6: Romo Dunesay and maybe fantasy analysts are getting too hung

691
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 6: up on the draft capitol. Yeah, I guess maybe my

692
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 6: biggest concern is that O doonesay Deebro mentioned it like

693
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 6: the separation numbers were not great, and I don't think

694
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 6: elite separation is really what Dunza is all about. He's

695
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 6: a guy who can make like and we saw this

696
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 6: when he was playing at Washington. He would be wearing

697
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 6: a defender like a well tarned Italian suit. Michael Pennix

698
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 6: didn't care. He was shoehorning it in and putting it,

699
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,719
Speaker 6: you know, in the one spot where the defender couldn't

700
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 6: get it and o'doonsay could get it, and o'doonsay came

701
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 6: down with the catch every time. I mean, he was

702
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 6: amazing at contested catches at Washington. And I just don't

703
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 6: know if Caleb Williams is that kind of He might

704
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 6: be more of a see it, throw it kind of

705
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 6: quarterback for a timing guy. So I don't know if

706
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 6: it is a love connection between those two or at

707
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 6: least not yet. I mean, they seem to have a

708
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 6: really good rapport, like we saw it on Hard Knocks

709
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 6: last year. I see it with some of like the

710
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 6: local news coverage of Bears practices. Roman and Caleb like

711
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 6: each other. I just don't know how well their games

712
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 6: meshed together yet. Kind of the same thing with dj Moore,

713
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 6: Like it was weird. And I have a great respect

714
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 6: for DJ Moore. I think he's wonderful player. I'm slightly

715
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 6: below ADP and ECR on him because his body language

716
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 6: last year was terrible.

717
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 5: Like, I felt like.

718
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 6: DJ Moore was unhappy all year, and I don't know

719
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 6: if it was he and Caleb didn't really click, or

720
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 6: if it was just the coaching staff that he kind

721
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 6: of hated. Tough look, Yeah, I mean it very well

722
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 6: could have been. He was just unhappy with the system

723
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 6: he was in. So you know, I'm not like way

724
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 6: below ECR or ADP, but I'm a little below on

725
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 6: him and the guy I'm way out in front of

726
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 6: ECR and ADP on his Luther Burden.

727
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 2: Don't do it for me, no.

728
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,919
Speaker 5: Because he's a cheap dart thrower.

729
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 6: I've got him at wide receiver fifty right now, and

730
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 6: everyone else has him at wide receiver seventy four. And

731
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 6: I think people are looking for this uh to use

732
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 6: this hamstring injury as an excuse to write off Luthor

733
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 6: Burden for the entire season, in which case great, Like

734
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 6: I'll swoop in and grab Luthor Burden in the final run,

735
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 6: because what if he is Ben Johnson's version of am

736
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 6: Ross Saint Brown in this offense And it's a plausible

737
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 6: what if, Because if Luther Burden had come out after

738
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 6: his sophomore year at Missouri where he lit the sec

739
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 6: on fire as a nineteen year old, like, I mean,

740
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 6: he was crazy and he's so good after the catch.

741
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 6: He has those Alan Iverson moves where he just like

742
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 6: makes the one cut and leaves a defender grasping it air.

743
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 6: So I'm excited about what he could potentially do. I

744
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 6: know he had a bad junior year. You mentioned it,

745
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 6: like Brady Cook wasn't healthy really all season and things

746
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 6: just didn't click. But I don't know, man, I do

747
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,479
Speaker 6: I get it. I think Burden is interesting. The only

748
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 6: thing is, like, if they use Comet and Loveland together

749
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 6: in a lot of twelve personnel, then that probably keeps

750
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 6: Luthor Burden off the field too much for him have

751
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 6: any sort of impacts.

752
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 3: That's where I'm at, Pat, Like, I think they could

753
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 3: use a lot of twelve personnel with those tight ends,

754
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 3: and then it's gonna limit it, Like, is burden just

755
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 3: the Jaden Reid of Chicago?

756
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, but but in fairness, at the price that Burden

757
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 6: is going at right now, that's fair. You can draft him,

758
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 6: drop him in week three, No harm, no foul.

759
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 4: I don't disagree with that.

760
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 3: And I'm today years old to realize that people are

761
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,760
Speaker 3: still ranking Dj Moore as the top twenty four wide receivers.

762
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 4: So maybe I'm not going to get much of him

763
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:19,959
Speaker 4: and drafts either.

764
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Wide receiver nineteen in ECR. Yeah, Wide receiver ECR.

765
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 1: So I was just about to say, too, it seems

766
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 1: like you're most in on more. I'm probably most in

767
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: on more and then paths more in on burden. So

768
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: not the most helpful analysis maybe, but maybe something we're

769
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: all just kind of avoiding.

770
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: And you know, maybe it's one.

771
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 1: Of those situations, Pat where you buy the cake and

772
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: not be icing right, you buy Caleb Williams.

773
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 6: Well, maybe, but at the same time, an injury could

774
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 6: create value.

775
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 5: True in this wide receiver cor like one of.

776
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 6: These guys get hurt, gets hurt, and maybe all of

777
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 6: a sudden, the other two become significantly more valuable.

778
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:00,879
Speaker 2: Okay, let's go ahead.

779
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 1: Let's round out the program with the Super Bowl runner ups,

780
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. Rashid Rice, of course, could be

781
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: facing league disciplinary action after being sentenced to five years

782
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 1: probation thirty days in jail to serve over the course

783
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: of that parole. That's due to his role in that

784
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: six car crash back in Dallas back in twenty twenty four.

785
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy was a league winner as a rookie after

786
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: Rice went down with the torn acl last season. Of course,

787
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: we also have Marque's Hollywood Brown fourth round pick, Jalen

788
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: Royals from Utah State, Juju Smith, Schuster, and Sky Moore

789
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 1: still hanging around in the mix as well.

790
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 2: Fits.

791
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: Do you have a feeling on how the targets could

792
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: shake out and where the fantasy points go with the

793
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: Chiefs this season.

794
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm a little worried that Worthy tops out at

795
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 6: like twenty percent this year, although I think there could

796
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 6: be some higher value targets. He's probably going to be

797
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 6: running deeper routes with Rashie back, or at least back

798
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 6: for twelve or ten games or whatever it is that

799
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 6: he actually plays. Hollywood is going to be Boomer bost

800
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 6: a couple big plays or whatever. But he is going

801
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 6: to draw targets. Here's the thing. Like, I've been below

802
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 6: consensus on Rashie Rice all off season, and I know,

803
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 6: like the enthusiasm has just been getting crazy from and

804
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 6: with some really smart people like I know, you know,

805
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 6: friend of the Show Ryan Heath and Fantasy Points really

806
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 6: likes him. I think Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points also

807
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 6: likes him. My buddy Evan Silva from Established the Run

808
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 6: before the suspension news, I think Evan had Rashie Rice

809
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 6: at thirteenth overall in his rankings. Here's why I am

810
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 6: not at all.

811
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 3: I thought I was high wide receiver thirteen before the

812
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 3: suspension news.

813
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 6: But yeah, I mean people are looking at what Rashid

814
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 6: did in his rookie year and then early last season.

815
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 6: Well early last season, Worthy was not a factor. He

816
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 6: was not fully integrated into this offense. Yet in the

817
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 6: three games where Rashie Rice was going nuts before he

818
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 6: got hurt in Week four, Worthy had drawn eleven targets

819
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 6: in those first three games. Then towards the end of

820
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 6: the season with Rashie out, if you take the last

821
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 6: eight games including the playoffs, and excluding Week eighteen, when

822
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 6: Worthy played I think one snap in Week eighteen, they

823
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 6: just sat their starters. Worthy at at least five catches

824
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 6: in all of those games, fifty catches total over those

825
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 6: eight games, pacing for one hundred catch season. Now, I

826
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 6: don't expect Worthy to have one hundred catch season this

827
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 6: year with Rice back, But when Rice was killing it

828
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 6: as a rookie like Marquez Valdez, Scantling started ten games

829
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 6: for the Chiefs, Justin Watson started a sky Moore started

830
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,879
Speaker 6: eight games. Their target shares that year. MVS was at

831
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 6: a seven percent target share, sky Moore was at six

832
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 6: point three percent. Justin Watson actually the highest target share

833
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 6: of those three guys at eight point eight percent. Xavier

834
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 6: Worthy is going to command even if he is not

835
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 6: in a role similar to the one vacated by Rashid

836
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 6: Rice last year post injury. Worthy is going to command

837
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 6: targets even if he's running his routes further downfield at

838
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:02,760
Speaker 6: a much higher rate than any those bombs that Rice

839
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 6: was sharing targets with in twenty twenty three. Sorry, I'll

840
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 6: due respect not calling those guys bombs, but let's just

841
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 6: say they.

842
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 2: Were fantasy bombs.

843
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 5: Below replacement level, solid.

844
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 4: NFL players, not fantasy producers.

845
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 6: Yes, And so I think even Hollywood Brown is going

846
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 6: to have higher than an eight point eight percent target

847
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 6: share in this offense. So Rice just does not have

848
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 6: the same path to targets that he had early last

849
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 6: year or.

850
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 5: In twenty twenty three when he was sensational.

851
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 1: Rice wide receiver twenty one in ACR, currently Worthy wide

852
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: receiver thirty one, Hollywood Brown wide receiver fifty eight. Derek,

853
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 1: could I make the case that maybe I just miss

854
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: out on all these guys because it's such a crowd

855
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 1: room and just go with Travis kelce Ma even the

856
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: seventh eighth round this year, you.

857
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 3: Could, And I don't disagree with people taking that path.

858
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 3: I mean, for me, this wide receiver room is pretty

859
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 3: easy to me. I'm gonna take shots on Rice when

860
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 3: he falls in drafts. I'm still in on the talent

861
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 3: because I think when he comes back, we know the

862
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 3: role that he's going to play. And I don't I

863
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 3: think we're people like looking at this offense, in this

864
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 3: offense like I've honestly taken a one to eighty approach

865
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 3: on this, Like I've really come around to.

866
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,240
Speaker 4: This offense in the sense of.

867
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 3: Beginning of the off season, I'm like, how is this

868
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 3: all going to work? But I don't know if Patrick

869
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 3: Mahomes gets the deep ball juice back man, Like he's

870
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 3: been a bottom ten quarterback for the last two years

871
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 3: at throwing the deep ball, So I don't know if

872
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 3: that comes back. And if it does, okay, fine, then

873
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 3: then light all my analysis on fire here. But if

874
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 3: it doesn't, and we keep getting this dink and dunk

875
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 3: kind of offense, and they keep doing the dink and

876
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 3: dunk offense with Rashie Rice whenever he comes back. Now

877
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,240
Speaker 3: they have Brishard Smith out of the backfield, Travis Kelcey

878
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 3: and stuff, the dank and dunk go offense can be

879
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 3: better than what it was last year. And if Pachecko's

880
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 3: running the ball better, so like that can they can

881
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 3: run back this same game plan but be much more

882
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 3: effective considering the parts of pieces that they have in

883
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 3: this passing attack versus last year. And so I look

884
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 3: at this passing attack and I'm like, yeah, well, was

885
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 3: she Rice gets back? I want all the was she Rice?

886
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 3: Extremely high on him, like I bumped him down. But

887
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 3: we're all kind of projecting, We're we're guessing on how

888
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 3: long that suspension is. A lot of people said like

889
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 3: six games. I think it's gonna be two to four games.

890
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 3: If it's two games, his adp literally shouldn't jump down

891
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 3: very much, if at all. Like I've met wide receiver

892
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 3: twenty two right now, and I think with Rice, like

893
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 3: i've Pat, I know you're you're chomping in the bit.

894
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 4: Go ahead and tell me what you think about this.

895
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 3: Would be going to go running through that before I

896
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 3: give my RISDA tribe here.

897
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,959
Speaker 6: Can you blame Patrick Mahomes for not wanting to throw

898
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 6: deep to mvs and Justin Watson.

899
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 5: That's my thing.

900
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,720
Speaker 6: Now he's going to be throwing deep to Xavier Worthy

901
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 6: in Hollywood Brown And it's like, and I know coach

902
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 6: speak is coach speak, but Andy Reid does keep talking

903
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 6: about wanting to to uh get more verticality into this

904
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 6: passing game this year.

905
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: No, and my problem with Mahomes, it's not the fact

906
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 3: that he's not throwing deep. It's the fact that when

907
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 3: he's thrown deep, he's been terrible at it. Like he's

908
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 3: been bottom ten in CPOE bottom ten and catchable target rate.

909
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 2: So that's too bad.

910
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna say.

911
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 6: I'm not gonna say Patrick Mahomes can't throw the deep ball.

912
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 4: Come on, but the numbers say it. You don't have

913
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 4: to say it, Patty.

914
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 3: The numbers, but those numbers are agnostic of the wide receivers.

915
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 4: Those are not.

916
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 3: Those are catchable targets are not. That is not related

917
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:36,240
Speaker 3: to guys getting open being good receivers are bad receivers.

918
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 4: That is pat that that is late.

919
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 6: Because MVS always brings in catchable targets.

920
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 4: I'm not saying that catches it. I'm not doing that

921
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 4: at all.

922
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 3: But what I am saying is like Patrick Malmes has

923
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 3: not been good at the deep ball, and so I

924
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 3: think we're gonna go back to It's gonna be a

925
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 3: lot of checkdowns, a lot of guys asked to create

926
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: something after the catch.

927
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 4: And so Rice I know his role.

928
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 3: He's gonna get fed a ton of target because that's

929
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 3: what we saw last year, Like he had a thirty

930
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,839
Speaker 3: one point five percent target chair before he went out

931
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 3: with injury, three point six yards per route run, forty

932
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 3: one point two percent first read chair. Like all of

933
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 3: these numbers are elite usage. Now maybe some of that

934
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 3: changes and we we nerve some of that. So he

935
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 3: gets a twenty seven percent target chare his yards per

936
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 3: route run drops into the high twos. Those are still

937
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: extremely good numbers. So Rice, I still want to be

938
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 3: in on at cost. You can just count me out

939
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 3: on Hollywood Brown. No, no, no, heck no, there's just

940
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 3: no way. Like, I don't trust him to stay healthy

941
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 3: through the entirety of a season. I hope that he can,

942
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 3: but I can't see it at this point in his

943
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 3: career because it's just time after time after time. This

944
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 3: is what happens with Hollywood Brown. And even when he

945
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: was healthy in the playoffs, dude, like he was not producing.

946
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: Like in the postseason he had a fifteen percent target chair,

947
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 3: he had zero point sixty seven yards per route run.

948
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 3: He had point zero four zero first downs per up

949
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 3: Like that is basically non existent. So I'm not worried

950
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 3: about Hollywood Brown and Ti Xavier Worthy. I think he's

951
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 3: going to go back to being the outside guy and

952
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 3: be in the field stretcher and mahomes as better as

953
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 3: a deep all passer.

954
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 4: That's fine.

955
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 3: But the thing with Worthy is we all lived in

956
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 3: like we talk about weeks thirteen through seventeen when he

957
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 3: played the Rashi Rice role, and I'll keep going back

958
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 3: to this. He had a twenty five point six percent

959
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 3: design target rate. His AT dropped from twelve point one

960
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 3: to six point three. Those numbers mirror Rashi Rice almost.

961
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a Spider Man meme man. And you

962
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 3: look at what did Worthy do before he got that usage.

963
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 3: Like we all talk about weeks thirteen through seventeen when

964
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 3: when Worthy was the wide receiver twenty one and fantasy

965
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 3: points per game in that role. I'm also old enough

966
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,320
Speaker 3: to remember in weeks one through twelve when he was

967
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 3: the wide receiver fifty one in fantasy points per game

968
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 3: and only commanding a thirteen point nine percent target chare

969
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 3: when he was only nine separation one hundred and eleventh

970
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 3: in route win rate amongst one hundred and twenty four

971
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 3: wide receivers.

972
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 4: In that time.

973
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 3: So I'm burying Worthy. I don't really want to draft him.

974
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 3: He's going to get a bump with Rice is out.

975
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 3: Rice is about the only guy out of this passing

976
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 3: attack that I want, outside of some late best ball

977
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: shots on Jalen Royals, because if Hollywood Brown can't stay healthy,

978
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 3: Jalvin Royles is going to crack the top the starting

979
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 3: three wide receivers, and I love Jalen Royals as a prospect.

980
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 3: I hate that he went to Kansas City, but his

981
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 3: pathway not for this season, could be cleared up really

982
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,879
Speaker 3: quickly after this year as far as what he could

983
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 3: get as far as targets coming up in next season.

984
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 3: And I think he's viable as a last round picking

985
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 3: best ball right now, because if Hollywood can't stay healthy,

986
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 3: if Rice gets the longer suspension, if Worthy can't be

987
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 3: the guy that we all want him to be, some

988
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 3: roads might lead back to Jalen Royals.

989
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: It's an interesting debate. Rashid, Rice Xavier Worthy. Let us

990
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: know down in the common months below your thoughts on

991
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 1: this wide receiver room and all the wide receiver rooms

992
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,880
Speaker 1: we touched on today, and that will do it for

993
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 1: us on the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast, we hope

994
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: we helped you solve a couple of these depth chart dilemmas.

995
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for watching. As always, the best freeway

996
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: support us. Give this video a thumbs up if you

997
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: enjoy us type of content. Also make sure you're subscribing

998
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Speaker 1: if you're new for Pat Fitzmor's and Derek Brown.

999
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:25,280
Speaker 2: I'm seth Wilcock take care of y'all.

1000
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:28,719
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1001
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,440
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1002
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1003
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1004
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1005
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1007
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