1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Graduski. It 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: is Thursday, October second, twenty twenty five. We are just 3 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: thirty three days from the twenty twenty five elections. If 4 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: there's an election in your area, a local or state, 5 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: make a plan and go vote. So I want to 6 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: go over a bunch of interesting data points on polls 7 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: today in New Jersey, nationally, and the big question in 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, if Republicans can hold the House. I've 9 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: been thinking about that a lot, and I think that 10 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: there's a chance. I never said I'm a pessimist by nature, 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: but a lot's going on. I want to break it 12 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: down for you and also ask me anything. So I 13 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: want to go over a bunch of interesting data today. 14 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: I want to talk about so I'm polling, that's national, 15 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: it's interesting New Jersey. They are election coming up. I 16 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: know I talked a lot about New Jersey. We're going 17 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: to go past New Jersey. I promise big question in 18 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, if Republicans can hold the House. I 19 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: am naturally a pessimist, but I have reasons to be 20 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: optimistic on that proposal. I'm going to break down the 21 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: data for you and the course asked me anything. But first, 22 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: I want to talk about the government shutdown for those 23 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: who missed it, and it is easy to miss. Let's 24 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 1: face it, the Congress did not pass their spending package 25 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: and it has a lot to do with the subsidies 26 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 1: in the Affordable Care Act known as Obamacare. I'm not 27 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 1: going to give you details with the negotiations because things 28 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: are moving so quickly. But by the time this episode 29 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: recording the day before, by the time the episode comes 30 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: out tomorrow, and by the time that you hear it 31 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 1: maybe the day after, the news may be over. So 32 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: there's no point to that. But I want to talk 33 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,639 Speaker 1: about the bigger picture of what's going on, and that's 34 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: why Senate Democrats and specifically Chuck Schumer are fighting over 35 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: this and why he is fighting for his political legacy. 36 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: Schumer has been doing this for a very long time. 37 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: He's been an elected office at some level continuously since 38 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy five. He is the first Democrat Senate majority 39 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: leader since the late Harry Reid, who had a very substantial, 40 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: massive legislative record during his times leading Democrats and the Senate. 41 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: Eight times eight years leading Democrats in the Senate, Schumer 42 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: got just four years at that role as Majority leader, 43 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: and he didn't pass landmark legislation that he thought he 44 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 1: would have, nothing close to Harry Reid, which he got Obamacare, 45 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: and he got the DoD Act on banking, and he 46 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: got a lot of legislation on big transformative legislation. A 47 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: lot of progressive bills that Schumer hoped to put out 48 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: never even got Senate floor votes. Schumer is hoping to 49 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 1: retake the majority in twenty twenty six, which seems unlikely, 50 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: but there is a bigger problem for Chuck Schumer. Schumer 51 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: is facing a bunch of insurgent Democrats running for office, 52 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: running real, legitimate campaigns for office in Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, 53 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: and Illinois who are saying that they will not support 54 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: him as leader, or they're not saying anything at all, 55 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: which is basically the saying the same thing. A Pew 56 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: Research poll from this week found that Schumer has a 57 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: thirty five percent approval rating among Democrats nationally and thirty 58 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: nine percent disapprobating. He is the only national leader who 59 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: doesn't have support from majority or plurality of his own party. 60 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: This is a big problem. He is going into Mitch 61 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: McConnell territory, but without the Mitch McConnell super packs and 62 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: money to sit there and push people into supporting McConnell. 63 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 1: Let's face a McConnell, whether you like him or dislike him, 64 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: was a extremely savvy political operator. I don't think I 65 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: heard a story once from someone in Kentucky, and I 66 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 1: think this is true. McConnell never lost an election, even 67 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: when he ran for school president or classroom president or 68 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: whatever the case was. He's very, very political savgy. Schumer 69 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: is not McConnell, and he is not Harry Reid, and 70 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: he is facing this onslaught from Democrats who don't believe 71 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: that he has the fight. The activist base doesn't want 72 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: him to represent the party in the Senate, and they 73 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: don't believe that he has what it takes to take 74 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: on Trump. He's worried about his political future. What are 75 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: you if you're a Senate Tructionmber, if you're not in 76 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: the Senate after spending all these decades in elected office. 77 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: It defines his personality and defines his legacy. And the 78 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: other problem basis is that the delegation, inside the Democratic 79 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: delegation in the Senate, it is a lot more left 80 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: wing than it used to be, even in twenty eighteen, 81 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 1: even back in the last government shutdown happened. Democrats like 82 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: Kirsten Cinema and Joe Manchin and Red state Democrats, they're 83 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 1: not in office anymore. It's a different coalition. I personally 84 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: still think they're going to fold the Democrats on the 85 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: first vote of the budget. They got three Democrats to 86 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: already break against them, Angus King, who's not a Democrat, 87 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 1: he is an independent but caucuses with the Democrats, Joe 88 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: John Fetterman from Pennsylvania and Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada. 89 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: They've all voted with the Republicans. It's likely that other 90 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: ones will break or are talking to break, because as 91 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: they are more moderate, and because they have a lot 92 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: to lose by the budget not happening and government employees 93 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: not receiving their paychecks. Overall, Americans don't want a shutdown. 94 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: They never want to shut down. This is something that 95 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: I don't really understand why politicians think this is going 96 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: to be a big win for them, but it never 97 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: seems to be. There's never a case where I think 98 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 1: someone comes out as a winner being the author of 99 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: a shutdown. It also doesn't have long term ramifications for 100 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 1: the fate of a party. Ultimately, I think that Democrats 101 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: are overplaying their hand, but Chuck Schumer is playing to 102 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: save his career, and that is what people are not 103 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: talking about. Enough, Okay, now for the shutdown. Let's talk 104 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: about some national polls, specifically the New York Times Santa Pole, 105 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: which is not the most accurate polster, but it is 106 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: the most highly credited poll by other media sources. They 107 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: love talking about this poll. It's not an unaccurate poll. 108 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: It's not a bad poll, but it is. New York 109 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: Times does a good job with some of their election 110 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: data analysis, but it is definitely the most highest standard 111 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: I guess as far as how the media looks at 112 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: polling as which is the one to quote from if 113 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: I hope I'm making sense. But it's not the best 114 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: as far as accuracy, but it's the most prestigious. That's 115 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 1: the word I was looking for, prestigious. And they asked 116 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 1: the Americans how they feel about deportations. When they asked, 117 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 1: do you support the government deporting illegal aliens living in 118 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: the US, fifty four percent of Americans said yes, forty 119 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: three percent said no. Of those who said yes, That 120 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: includes sixty five percent of men, a majority of all 121 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: voters over the age of thirty, sixty two percent of 122 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: white voters, forty percent of non white voters. They tied 123 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: forty nine to forty nine among whites with a college degree, 124 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: seventy percent of whites without a college degree, forty seven 125 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 1: percent rather of non whites with a college degree, fifty 126 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: two percent of Indians, ninety two percent of Republicans, nearly 127 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: one in five Democrats, and nearly one in five Kamala 128 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: Harris voters. When they asked the question of whether the 129 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: government was deporting people who deserved to be deported, fifty 130 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: one percent said yes, forty two percent said no. Why 131 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: does this matter? Why does this individual pull matter? Because 132 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: of all the issues Trump has done while he has 133 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: been in office, possibly none have been demonized by the 134 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: media by social media more often than deportations, aside from tariffs. 135 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: Tariffs are absolutely get attacked the most more than anybody, 136 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: but immigration is a very very close second. It's probably 137 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: the biggest issue that separates the Biden administration from the 138 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: Trump administration because remember, Biden had a lot of tariffs. 139 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: Biden also supported most of the Trump tariffs, he kept 140 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: a lot of them going and built on them. So 141 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: the difference between tariffs between the Biden and Trump ministration 142 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: is not as different as a difference between immigration between 143 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: the Biden and Trump administration, which is day and night. 144 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: Biden did not care about the border whatsoever and invited 145 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: millions into this country. Trump has closed the border and 146 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: has the safest border you know, probably since Eisenhower. I mean, 147 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: it's a remarkable and miraculous change in one administration in 148 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: less than a year. But the fact is that despite 149 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: Democrats assaulting ICE officers and far left extremist shooting and 150 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: even killing some ICE officers, Democratic politicians are stuck in 151 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 1: this crossroads. Some of the more activist ones, some looking 152 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: to run for present, are calling for the eradication of 153 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: our enforcement apparatus around immigration, but a majority of Americans, 154 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: including those who did not vote for Trump in twenty 155 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: twenty four, are saying no. We believe that this process, 156 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: although not perfect, is right. The idea of deporting illegal 157 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: aliens is good. Most people who are being deported should 158 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 1: be deported. That would be considered an extreme position on 159 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: CNN or MSNBC, but it is the majority opinion by 160 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: double digits. That is something real. That is that Democrats 161 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 1: are going to have to contest with and grapple with, 162 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: not only in twenty twenty six, but also in twenty 163 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: twenty eight. Do you remember back in twenty twenty during 164 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: the Democratic primary debate when they were asking every politician 165 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: running for president if they supported government sponsored health care 166 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 1: for illegal immigrants, and they all raise their hands. I 167 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: bet you if that question was asked of the twenty 168 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: twenty eight contenders, at least one would not raise their 169 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: hand because they are worried about the fact that the 170 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: American public has given up on them and that their 171 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 1: base is increasingly out of step with the second most 172 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: important issue after the economy, consistently the second most important 173 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: issue after the economy. I think this will have ramifications, 174 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: especially as Democrats and Republicans are looking for some types 175 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: of immigration form around H one b's and other things. 176 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 1: The move for more enforcement on illegal immigration is wildly supported, 177 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: It is very bipartisan, and no amount of probably billions 178 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: of dollars of free negative media attention and social media 179 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: attention has changed that. And that is something that is 180 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,559 Speaker 1: very good, very important, and worth remembering. When the elections 181 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: go around in twenty twenty six and then in twenty 182 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: twenty eight. Okay, now that's not the only pole that 183 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: came out since Monday. There's been a flurry of polls 184 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: out in New Jersey. And I know I just did 185 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: an episode of New Jersey. You guys are probably getting 186 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 1: tired of hearing about New Jersey. I'm going to give 187 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: you a rundown of the hard data and the polls 188 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 1: that have come out. So a Beacon and Shaw poll 189 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: released by the by Fox News has Democrat Mikey Cheryl 190 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 1: leading by eight points. A Quantus Insight poll has Shared 191 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: leading by two points. Remember Quantas is the second most 192 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: accurate polster of the twenty twenty four election. A Global 193 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 1: Strategy poll has Cheryl, that's a Cheryl internal pole. They 194 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 1: have her up by seven points. And a Valker poll 195 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: released by Save Jersey that was our guest that we 196 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 1: had on Monday has her up by two points. And 197 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: the poll from the nonprofit Yes Every Kid has her 198 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: up by seven points. This follows an Emerson poll that 199 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: has Chittarelli and Cheryl tide and a Chittarelly internal poll 200 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: that has him up by one. Now that seems like 201 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: a lot of good news for Cheryl. Right, all these 202 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: polls have her up except for two, and then another 203 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: two have her within the margin of error. However, almost 204 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,319 Speaker 1: all the polls, including the Fox News polls, show that 205 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: the momentum and the enthusiasm gap is real and it 206 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: favors Chitarelli. The Fox News poll found that the Republicans 207 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: were eight points more enthusiastics to go vote for their 208 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: canon than the Democrat. Remember it's an eight point lead. 209 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 1: There's an eight point gap in enthusiasm. A new voter 210 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 1: registration data matches that enthusiasm gap. So New Jersey. New 211 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: Jersey does a lot of things wrong. One thing they 212 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: do right is they report their new voter registration every 213 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,079 Speaker 1: single first of the month religiously. It is one of 214 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:16,679 Speaker 1: the best states that does this. They don't have to 215 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: wait months and months on end. So New Jersey came 216 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: out with their September voter registration data on October first, 217 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: and they found that in the month of September, right 218 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: before a major election, the Governor's election, Democrats lost four thousand, 219 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty two registered voters. They left the 220 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 1: party ahead of the governor's election Republicans gained two thousand, 221 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: three hundred and eighty five and Independence gained thirteen thousand, 222 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty six new voters. And it begs 223 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: the question, and it is the question that will decide 224 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:55,719 Speaker 1: this election, aside from turnout, which Republicans are turning in. 225 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 1: I'm going to go back to that in one second. 226 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: Where are these independents going? Pendons in these polls are 227 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 1: what separated from being a mild Kamala like victory margin 228 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:13,479 Speaker 1: for Mikey Cheryl and a jump ball election where Chitarelli 229 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: can take it. Not by a lot, obviously, not by 230 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: the numbers that have Cheryl up by seven points, but 231 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: he's within the possibility in four polls that have just 232 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: come out. Since twenty twenty, and I've said this before, 233 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:31,079 Speaker 1: it's worth repeating. Since twenty twenty, Republicans have gained two 234 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five thousand new registered voters in the 235 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: Garden State, many of which did not vote in the 236 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: last election. Democrats have gained one thousand. Think about that difference. 237 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: This is a state that is not Florida. It doesn't 238 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 1: have a institution to get Republicans to register to vote. 239 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: It doesn't have an apparatus and tons of You know, 240 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: Florida has a million Republicans elected a local government. They 241 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: don't have that in New Jersey in some pockets, but 242 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: not statewide. It's not a functioning state party like Florida is. 243 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: And when it comes to the mail in ballot, how 244 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: are people voting in the mail in ballot? Republicans are 245 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: returning their ballots at a faster rate than Democrats. Eleven 246 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: point six percent of Republicans who have requested a mail 247 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: in ballot have already voted. That is true of nine 248 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: point eight percent of Democrats. Republicans are returning fested. And 249 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: now remember Democrats have more people requesting ballots, So there's 250 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: a fifty one to twenty thousand raw vote lead for Democrats. 251 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 1: But if this is reflective of the election day and 252 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: the vote early vote in person turnout, Republicans are showing 253 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: up in big numbers. The question is how are independent 254 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: showing up, how are they voting, how are they breaking 255 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: And if inner city Democrats are sitting there and doing 256 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: the same inner city Democrats, minority Democrats in places like 257 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: Union City, New Jersey, they did not like Maikey Cheryl, 258 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: they did not want her, and a lot of them 259 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: are having a big issue whether or not to support 260 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: Hitarelly because they're not supporting him, but they're they may 261 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: choose the couch. They may sit there and say, you 262 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: know what, found a good show on Netflix that day, 263 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: I'm not going to go vote. So, if you are 264 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: a Republican in New Jersey and you don't want to 265 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: vote by mail, because the Republicans still have that issue, remember, 266 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: early voting is coming up, Election Day voting is coming up, 267 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 1: and independence, especially how you break, will break the state 268 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 1: and decide your future for the next four years. The momentum, though, 269 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: is clearly on Chittarelli's side and New Jersey. I think 270 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: this is a bold statement to make, but I'm going 271 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: to make it. I don't think it's a question of 272 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: if New Jersey becomes a swing state. I think it 273 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: is a question of when New Jersey becomes a swing 274 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: state because all the momentum, and it's clearly organic, is 275 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: on Republican side. Now, once the bigger question can Republicans 276 00:15:53,880 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: hold the House in twenty twenty six, I explore that next. Okay, 277 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: so Democrats are looking to stop Trump by winning the 278 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: House over in twenty twenty six and it is historic 279 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: precedent that the resident's party loses seats in mid terms, 280 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: usually the first midterm worse than the second mid term. 281 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: That was true of Obama, not true of Bush, true 282 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: of Clinton. So it's we'll see how it is with 283 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. That is the big question is can Trump 284 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: now Trump lost a lot of seats in the first 285 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: midterm twenty eighteen, that is not going to be the 286 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: case this time. Everyone acknowledges it's not going to be 287 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: in the twenty eighteen style wave. However, two things are 288 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: happening simultaneously that question whether or not they'll even lose 289 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: the House. To begin with, first is redistricting. Republicans are 290 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: set to They're not set. They have They've netted five 291 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: seats in Texas and one in Missouri. It is likely 292 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: that they will net an additional three in Ohio, three 293 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: in Florida, and one in Indiana. It is also likely 294 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: that Democrats. That's because I Proposition fifteen California passes a 295 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: very important election also happening in this November, that voters, 296 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: if they live in California should vote against Prop fifty, 297 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: but if they if it does pass, California is set 298 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: to net about four seats for the Democratic Party right 299 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: four to five. Let's just say four though, because one 300 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: is in a swing district with a Republican who generally 301 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: wins a swing district. So Democrats are set to at four. 302 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: That means nationwide, Republicans will start out with ten more 303 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: safe Republican seats than they currently have. That is a 304 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: lot in such a tight margin. There's also a series 305 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: of polls that recently came out the New York Times Sanapol, 306 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 1: which I mentioned about the immigration issue. They also asked, 307 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 1: who do you plan on voting for in the midterms. 308 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: Democrats hold just a two point lead. That's not a lot. 309 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: The economist you Gov asked the same question and among 310 00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: registered voters, Democrats had a three point lead. Signal, which 311 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: is a Republican leaning firm. The head of the Signal 312 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: polling Studkee came on this podcast several months ago, very 313 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: smart guy. Democrats had a three point lead and Emerson 314 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: had it tied. Atlas Intel, which is the most accurate 315 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: polster from the twenty twenty four election. They are the 316 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 1: only ones to sit there and say Democrats have a 317 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: sizable lead of eight points, but they are unique and 318 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: they are not hurting their data. And I give every 319 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: Polster credit for not hurting. But let's say the generic 320 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: ballot is D plus three, right, the nation as a 321 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: whole votes D plus three fifty to forty seven or 322 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 1: something like that, that would represent a five point swing 323 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,959 Speaker 1: from twenty twenty four. How many Republican seats does that 324 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: jeopardize In a five point seat, I started doing the 325 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: calculations compared to the twenty twenty four A House elections, 326 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 1: looking at people who like the Alaska seat. Right, it's 327 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: not contentiousy even more, even though it was contentious the 328 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: first time because there was an incumbent Democrat as of 329 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: a special election. Let's say, of the ones that will 330 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 1: be contentious this time that won't face redistricting, it's about ten. 331 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: There's what ten seats really in prime Democratic target that 332 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: they can sit there and seriously win in twenty twenty six. 333 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: If that's the swing and the redistrictings all go through, 334 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: that is not enough to win the House. Now, things 335 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 1: could change. A lot could change between now and next November. Recession, 336 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: economy picks up, economy loses steam, peace in the Middle East, 337 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: there's a new healthcare some of the President Trump have 338 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: where fizers, reshoring industries and reducing healthcare costs. A lot 339 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: of stuff is on the gamut. But in twenty eighteen, 340 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 1: we saw the wave coming. We were like people on 341 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,199 Speaker 1: the beach in Asia seeing the tidal wave show up 342 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: miles and miles away, and we couldn't escape it. That 343 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,439 Speaker 1: was what was happening to the Democratic Party in twenty eighteen. 344 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: It was very obvious for a very long time that 345 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 1: Democrats were excited to go vote. But look at these 346 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 1: voter registration numbers. I gave you New Jersey, you another 347 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 1: one in Florida. Over in Florida, Democrats have lost three 348 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 1: hundred thousand voters since December twenty twenty four, Republicans have 349 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,919 Speaker 1: gained four thousand. Three hundred thousand. Now you say Florida 350 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 1: is Florida. Same thing happened in Louisiana Republicans in the 351 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:26,679 Speaker 1: last month. In Louisiana, Republicans gained sixteen hundred voters, Democrats 352 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 1: lost two thousand. In New Mexico, Democrats lost, Democrats gained 353 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: twelve voters twelve one two twelve. Republicans gained fourteen hundred 354 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: Since the election in twenty twenty four, Since November twenty 355 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: twenty four, Republicans have gained four thousand new voters in 356 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: New Mexico, a state that they did not win, while 357 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: Democrats have lost nineteen thousand. In Rhode Island, a super 358 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: blue state, Republicans gained three hundred and eighty voters Democrats 359 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: lost four hundred. Does that show you the signs of 360 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: a party where people are authentically organically moving and energetic 361 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 1: and excited to go vote. What is happening? Something organic 362 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: is happening there. Even in California, Republicans are out registering 363 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 1: Democrats in new voters, Republicans have had more activists. Republicans 364 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: have benefited in some states from the fact that some 365 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: Democratic governors have pursued automatic voter registration where there's millions 366 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 1: of non college educated white men who had never regually 367 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: previously been registered to vote anymore prevote ever a period. 368 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 1: They've benefited from all those things. But it is organic 369 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: and it is national across the country everywhere that tracks 370 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: voter registration information. Voter registration ormation usually follows other signs 371 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: that things are not working in a party or are 372 00:21:55,640 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: working in a party's favor. Pulling and also money only 373 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: into this election, Republicans have in the NRCC, Republicans have 374 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,479 Speaker 1: more than sixty million more dollars cash on hand than 375 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: Democrats do. All of the spells that it's likely Democrats 376 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,160 Speaker 1: will gain seats, but could they not win the majority 377 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,160 Speaker 1: after claiming Trump's a fascists and democracy in the line, 378 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: and the sky is falling every single solitary day, and 379 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,359 Speaker 1: Rosie o'donald has moved to Ireland? Could they could it 380 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: prove that it doesn't really matter what they're saying? Yeah, 381 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: it does. This is not twenty eighteen? Is all the 382 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: signs that has that'd showing? Okay, next up, Ask Me Anything? 383 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,719 Speaker 1: Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If 384 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 1: you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, 385 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: email me ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com. It's Ryan 386 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: at numbers Plural gamepodcast dot com. I love getting your emails. 387 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: It really helps my ideas for the show. What shows 388 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: you want to have on guests I can pursue. I'm 389 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: constantly trying to reach out with new people to be 390 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: guests and top you guys want to hear because working 391 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: where you're in a room by yourself, just talking to 392 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: a microphone and You're like, here's my idea. I hope 393 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: that everyone says there and is interested by this. So 394 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 1: I love getting your emails. Please eel me questions on 395 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: any kind of topic you can. The question about New 396 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,400 Speaker 1: York City restaurants is one of my favorite. Okay, this 397 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: message comes from Scott. Scott says, Hi, Ryan has heard 398 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: your latest podcast and wanted to throw out that. Miles 399 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 1: Smith a history professor from Hillsdale who's done a lot 400 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: of study on Christian revivalism and intersection of religion and 401 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: politics since the eighteen hundreds that echoes in present day 402 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: discussions like Christian nationalism. I think you'd be a great 403 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 1: guest for that topic on your show. Thank you for 404 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 1: that message, Scott. You know the election is coming up, 405 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 1: so I want to about politics because that's my background, 406 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: that's what I focus on. I would like to do 407 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: an episode in religion. I don't know how people feel 408 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: about it. I don't know if people want to hear 409 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: me talk about other topics I'm from politics. I think 410 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 1: that they do, especially now with a lot of conversation 411 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,160 Speaker 1: and controversy surrounding the new pope, and I believe he's 412 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,199 Speaker 1: in a precarious situation given the financial shape of the 413 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 1: church and the fact that older Catholics like the Joe 414 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: Biden's and the Nancy Pelosis and the Dick Durbins of 415 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 1: the world are hold a lot of institutional power and 416 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 1: a lot of financial power as they are looking towards 417 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: what they'll do their money after they leave this world. 418 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: I'm trying to find nuance in what he's doing. There 419 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: are some things that are making me scratch my head. Though. 420 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: He did a blessing of a piece of ice at 421 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: some climate change event, and I just don't I try 422 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: to understand, but I'm trying very hard to understand. I 423 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: just don't know what is going on. But I might 424 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: have a priest come on talk about the pope, talk 425 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: about the today of the church. I don't know if 426 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,479 Speaker 1: you guys are interested in that topic, though, let me know. 427 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: I want to venture up into other topics. I'm afraid 428 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 1: to if you guys are not going to be interested 429 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: in it. So if you're interested in that topic, let 430 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: me know, shoot me an email. Great suggestion, though, if 431 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 1: I do an episode on Christian nationalism, I will bring 432 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,160 Speaker 1: him on. Okay. Next question coroms from Derek Rolf Hope 433 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: I pronounce your lesson correctly, so love the show. My 434 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: question is on H one B visas. With Senator Grassley 435 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 1: and now the Senate Democrat Judiciary Committee both posturing to 436 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 1: clamp down on H one b's, do you think we'll 437 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 1: see any laws passed regarding this issue? If so, what 438 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 1: do you think Congress would do and what would be best. 439 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 1: I'm in favor of drastically limiting or ending the program altogether. Okay, 440 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: so Senator Grassley, his Senator grass is a very conservative 441 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: senator from Iowa. His partner around immigration reform has specifically been, ironically, 442 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 1: Senator Dick Durbin from Illinois. Durbin and Grassley have worked 443 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 1: together since two thousand and seven on a lot of bills, 444 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: a lot of common sense bills regarding immigration, and the 445 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 1: most recent one, the one that Derek is mentioning, is 446 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 1: a drastic reform to the L one and H one 447 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: B visas. Now, the H one B visas are those 448 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 1: high information, high tech visas. That's when that Silicon Valley 449 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 1: loves so much. I'm going to quote from Senator Grassley's website. 450 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: He says, in valuating the high unemployment rate for the 451 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: American tech workers. We cannot ignore the massive ongoing layoffs 452 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,119 Speaker 1: ordered by this speaking to tech executives, ordered by you 453 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,120 Speaker 1: and your peers in the big tech c suites over 454 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,439 Speaker 1: the past few years. At the same time they've been 455 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: laying off employees, they've been filling up H one B 456 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: visa petitions. And then he goes on to sit there 457 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 1: and say that Grassy and Durban are requesting information and 458 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 1: data from each company, and it's a list of different 459 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 1: tech companies regarding their recruitment and hiring practices, as well 460 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 1: as any variation in salary and benefits between H one 461 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:36,120 Speaker 1: B visa holders and the American employees. They are sponsoring 462 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 1: a bill called the H one B and L one 463 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: Visa Reform Act. That's the name of the twenty twenty 464 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 1: three bill. There's a new name. It's the same exact 465 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: Bilbo introduced by Senator Grassley this year. Among the reforms 466 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 1: of the bill formerly known as H one B and 467 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 1: L one Visa Reform Act, it will reduce fraud and 468 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 1: abuse for our immigration system, provide protections for American workers 469 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: and visa holders, and require greater transparency in the recruitment 470 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 1: of foreign workers. The bill has the support of Senators 471 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: Tubberville Sanders emblemathal. So it's a very bipartis I mean, 472 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: Tubberville and Sanders probably do not agree on many things. 473 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 1: It's a real piece of bipartisan legislation and it's something 474 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 1: that you can really expect a lot of times from 475 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 1: Senators Durbin and Grass when they get together on immigration. 476 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: They try to end the EB five visa and it 477 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 1: had a broad support, and it was Chuck Schumer and 478 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,360 Speaker 1: John Corny that ended up saving the EB five visa 479 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: after everyone acknowledged it was a completely corrupt visa. But 480 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 1: you know, they needed money from Chinese investors for the 481 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 1: real estate market in both in Texas and New York, 482 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 1: so they saved the visa system. What do I think 483 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 1: need to happen? So they only have four sponsor co 484 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 1: sponsors of the bill, sorry, three co sponsors as well 485 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 1: as the two main sponsors. Was five total they would 486 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: need If this is going to happen, you need to 487 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,680 Speaker 1: see several things move. One, you'd have to see some 488 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,919 Speaker 1: moderates in both parties also up on the bad wagon. 489 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,160 Speaker 1: So Susan Collins, who support a lot of grassy reforms, 490 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,880 Speaker 1: and John Fetterman jump on this as well as some 491 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: populous Republicans like Bernie Marino or Jim Banks or Josh Holly. 492 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 1: That would give indication that this has real teeth and 493 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 1: is moving through the Senate. If you live in those 494 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 1: states and you want to see them back this bill, 495 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 1: you should call their office in Washington and ask them 496 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 1: to sit there and co sponsor this bill. That would 497 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:28,880 Speaker 1: be the That would be the first step I think 498 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 1: to get that. I can actually know it my ass 499 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,640 Speaker 1: Senator Grassley's office if they can come to talk about 500 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: this bill. I think it's been an interesting topic overall, 501 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 1: but getting one of those senators to jump on this 502 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 1: bill would be a very good first step both the 503 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: moderate and the popular swings of the party. Ultimately, to 504 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 1: have a real chance, you would have to get the 505 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 1: President and the White House behind it, because that would 506 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 1: that's going to sit there and actually move to Johnson, 507 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 1: to Mike Johnson, you'd both introduce a version of it 508 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: in the House and get it to the House floor, 509 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: as well as John Thune in the Senate. There's a 510 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 1: lot of people scratching to get something done in the 511 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: House and the Senate on H one B's I think 512 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: this is probably the best chance for something to happen. 513 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: They need a sponsor in the House. I don't know 514 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 1: who that would be, but that is definitely this is 515 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,719 Speaker 1: definitely the best chance. But until you see leadership come 516 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: support it, and moderates and populist some more of them 517 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 1: jump on the bandwagon and get some more energy as 518 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: well as the White House. I wouldn't bet on it 519 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: becoming laws. Something has to give on any of those 520 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 1: things before it can really have some real teeth. But 521 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: it's a good bill, so hopefully it will anyway. Thank 522 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: you for your questions. Thank you for listening to this episode. 523 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 1: If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on 524 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever get your podcast. I 525 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 1: will talk to you guys on Monday. We're going to 526 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: talk about Virginia and the governor, attorney general and lieutenant 527 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: governor's race. There. Stay tuned, everybody,