WEBVTT - The Boomer Boom 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:17.360 Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:20.240 My name is Mike Reagan and I'm a senior editor 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:25.160 at Bloomberg and this week on the show, despite lingering unemployment, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.080 the American consumer appears to be in pretty good shape. 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:32.040 Betty Walton. Bank accounts are swollen from either government stimulus 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.840 payments where the money saved from not leaving the house 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:38.440 for very much during the pandemic. Well, what will these 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:42.760 consumers spend it on? Has the pandemic changed spending habits 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.600 permanently or were at least in the near future. We'll 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:48.400 get into it with a portfolio manager and an analyst 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:52.920 who covers the consumer, discretionary and industrial sectors. But first, 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:56.000 Charlie Pelletts Halls, who this week's mystery co host is. 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:00.600 This week's mystery co host is Chris nate Gee. Chris 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:04.000 is a Boston guy at heart who's an executive editor 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.959 from Markets in Bloomberg. That means he's actually Reagan's boss. 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:10.560 So don't expect Mike to make any jokes about the 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:14.039 Celtics performance in the playoffs this year, well, at least 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:18.760 not on this episode of the podcast. Chris, Charlie's right 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.080 I'm not gonna make any jokes about the Celtics. I 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:24.399 will say I I hope you know you guys could 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.240 have softened up the rest of the conference a little 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:28.840 bit for us, But but no, you didn't really do that. 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:31.440 I think we energize them. There's nothing funny to say 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:35.720 about that serious move from from your perspective. There there, 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:38.560 There's there's a lot to say from from us. But 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.240 uh but Chris, as I put it on the intro, 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:43.760 we have a great guest this week who knows a 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:48.280 lot about consumer stocks and consumer behavior. Before we bring her, 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:50.240 you know, I wanted to ask you about one thing 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:53.360 that I know American consumers are spending a lot on 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.320 these days, and that's the meme stocks and the doage 0:01:56.320 --> 0:02:00.600 coins in the world. The aisles are Bear that's right, 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:03.680 the aisles of Bear of Beam. Sus, you and I 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:05.960 have been through a lot of, let's face it, crazy 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:09.240 market regimes together in this this job of ours, but 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:11.799 I don't think we've ever seen anything like this that 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:14.079 what we've seen in the past year. I'm just curious. 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.080 You know, we haven't talked in Aboile. What's your take 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:20.480 on this sort of new environment of day traders that 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:22.040 we're seeing now. I mean, I guess it that goes 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.760 to some degree the big day trading craze back in 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:26.960 the day in the early two thousand's, But this seems 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.840 to be something completely different. I mean, is is this 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:33.440 just a permanent change do you think in the sort 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:35.920 of makeup of the investor class, or is it just 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:38.280 a fat I guess it remains to be seen if 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.960 it's permanent. But you do have to say it's outlasted 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:44.880 a lot of the predictions of its demise, Like there 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.840 were a lot of sort of conventional wisdom ideas that 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.960 it would run out when people went outside, or when 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:56.320 sport events sports came back, like the Celtics Series M 0:02:56.520 --> 0:03:00.360 or the stimulus checks ran out. And right now you 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:03.120 have to say, I mean, I think it is important. 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:06.880 It's not quite the same absolutely uncorked craze that it 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.120 was during the first go round. It seems like it's 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.160 a little bit more selective now. They're they're honing it 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:14.919 on their targets, maybe doing a better job of targeting 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:19.320 company companies that sort of fit their model. But um, 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:24.520 it's starting to seem like maybe it wasn't entirely a 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.280 function of the of the lockdown, and what it was 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:31.720 was the discovery of another way to crowdsource what people 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:35.160 want in the world. And to that to that extent, 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:40.000 you have to either worried or hope that it's permanent, 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:42.760 depending on your side of the UH, which side of 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:46.080 the trade you'ur on. It does seem like aspects of 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.480 it are going to be tough to root out for 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.480 or or just are going to be are gonna winger. 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.360 I mean, there's just it just seems to be. It 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:57.000 just seems to be working too well to be going 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:00.320 to a quick death. I say, bring the retail courage 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:02.920 commissions back and we'll get back to life as normal. 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.440 But maybe I'm maybe I'm the outlier there, that's a 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:08.080 fair point. There was a big this week. There's a 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:10.800 big push at the SEC to to look at some 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.200 of the market structure stuff that's underpinned this, so that 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:18.880 certainly it's made UH commission free trading possible, like some 0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:21.680 of the you know, the market structured payment for order 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:24.520 flows things, and maybe maybe if that gets un ended 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:26.600 that some of the hysteria. I mean, certainly the ability 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:29.479 to trade for nothing is a big part of what's 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:31.640 UH what's driving it. I don't know that it's an 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:35.719 absolutely necessary but it's certainly a facilitating influence on the 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.839 whole thing, right, absolutely, Let's get to it then with 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.359 our guests. As I said, she's a portfolio manager and 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.960 an analyst. She covers the consumer, discretionary and industrial sectors 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:50.000 at the investment firm Westwood. Her name is Lauren Hill. Lauren, 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:52.080 welcome to the show. Thanks for having me here. I'm 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:54.719 happy to be here. And and Lauren, much as I 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:57.159 will not make any jokes about the Celtics, I'm not 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:59.400 gonna make any jokes about you being a member of 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.440 the Fuji. He's said. I wish I could sing to 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:07.080 as much as I spelled differently, though, so at least 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.520 I'm sure you wish you wish you'd never heard that before. 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:11.920 I was gonna ask how many times you've heard that joke, 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:14.840 but I'm sure it's it's daily at least. Uh kind 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:21.400 of joke doesn't even doesn't even qualify as alright, alright. 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.120 I lived in the city for eleven years, and Lauren, 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:26.640 the real Lauren who lived in New Jersey, so people 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:28.800 were always giving me updates when they'd see her on 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:31.720 the street. They'd be like I saw her name to today, 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:35.320 like it's really funny. Pride of New Jersey. We're very 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.080 proud of her, I will say, though, she does have 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:39.280 a reputation for being laid on stage. And you were 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:41.680 right on time, so you got you got that uh 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:44.839 distinction there too. But let me ask you about the 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.360 whole notion of consumers. I think it's a great time 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:50.560 to have you on the show because well, everybody is 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:53.200 ready for the consumer to come roaring back now that 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:56.720 the lockdowns are over. Everyone's vaccinated, and I want to 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:58.599 ask you a little bit of kind of how you 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:01.520 sort of suss out where you think the consumers going 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.800 to go. And I'll tell you why. One of the 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:05.920 big things that a lot of people were looking at 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:09.840 during the pandemic was the various sort of alternative sets 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.920 of data that we have available to us in real time. 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:15.000 One thing that a lot of people looked at was 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:19.039 open table restaurant reservations. And I get it as sort 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:22.080 of the notion of as a macro indicator that the 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:25.920 economy is reopening, people are more comfortable getting back out there. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.680 But to me, you know, I don't think I can't 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.440 think a lot of public companies that actually have restaurants 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:36.120 that need respirations too. So to me, my point being, 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:38.200 and this is a long monologue to set up this question, 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.920 but the point being that you know, do we know 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.960 how the consumer is going to start spending this bankroll 0:06:45.040 --> 0:06:48.360 they have now? Um? Because I'm thinking if a lot 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.800 of people create, say a fancy dinner out that has 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:56.960 different implications obviously, then say people craving a chance to 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:59.200 get back shopping at the malls or going to the movies. 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.240 I'm just curious how you're analyzing the consumer in this 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:05.479 reopening environment, um, And where do you expect that spending 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:10.280 to be most robust? Yeah? Absolutely, So I'm really really 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.760 positive on the consumer. I think we're going to have 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:16.880 a really incredible rebound from here. I think the spending 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.720 is going to surprise a lot of people, um, both 0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:22.880 in terms of the magnitude and how long it lasts. 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:26.880 So UM. I think that the consumer the way I 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.040 look at things is um, you know, kind of by generation. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.320 So UM. I think that we're gonna have a robust 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:36.240 rebound in spending and that's going to be led by 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:38.560 the boomers. I think that when you get down to 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:40.400 the younger folks are going to be doing all kinds 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.640 of different things. But just the group I spend a 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:45.560 lot of time on is what I call the boomers 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.840 plus that's people fifty five and older. So they only 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.680 make up twenty percent of population, but they control over 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:56.280 seventy percent of US wealth. So, um, you know, they 0:07:56.280 --> 0:08:00.000 were the most reluctant to get out during and now 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:04.160 how they are returning to their old shopping patterns. And 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:07.000 they've been adulting for a very long time, you know, 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:09.640 in some cases fifty years, so they have really well 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.560 established patterns of spending and they're getting back to it. 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:16.280 Life is short. Um, they're putting family and friends and 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:19.000 catching up with them as a high priority. I think 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:21.080 that's gonna last two to three years. I think that's 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:24.040 gonna boost travel. We're gonna see a lot of what 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:28.720 I call social interaction spending. So we're gonna see hotel spending, vacations, 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.280 people out of sit down restaurants. We're going to see 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:36.160 a lot more services. There's tremendous pinet demand for services. 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:40.080 We don't quite have the labor force back as we 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:43.800 need them. There's still sixteen point nine million people on 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:46.680 the sidelines collecting an employment right now. Before the pandemic, 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:49.320 that was just two million, So, um, you know, the 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:53.120 true unemployment rates probably still around ten percent. But I think, 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:56.800 you know, as the federal bonus, the three a week 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:58.960 extra that people are getting right now to help them 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.199 get by, goes away the first week of September, I 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:05.120 think we're gonna start to see, uh, and easing of 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:07.000 that pressure in the labor market. More people are going 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.160 to be out there, more services are going to be available. 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.760 That's going to kind of ease the pressure on goods. Um. 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.240 You know that people are so focused on spending on 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.559 goods right now at the moment. But I think we're 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:20.839 gonna get back to that natural balance, and I think 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:22.840 boomers plus are going to lead us out of it. 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.600 And um, you know, the younger folks, they don't have 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:29.480 as well established patterns, especially those just out of college. 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:33.160 So I really believe that, um, they're spending patterns may 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:35.800 be affected for a very long time. You know. Um, 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:38.559 in the last downturn, we talked about a lost decade. 0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:40.080 You know, it could kind of look like that, But 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:42.720 kind of the big picture is they just don't have 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:46.800 the spending power. In fact, Jen excellently has a third 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:50.560 of the uh the wealth of UM the boomers and 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:56.000 jin Jin y only has one. So even though they 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.440 may spend more time at home, and they already were 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.800 before the pandemic, which is I find really fascinating, they 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.720 were already UM, kind of creating this home body economy. 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:08.360 They had high student loans, they had you know, different 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:11.960 pressures in their life. They were getting around to getting married, 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:15.720 buying houses later in life, so they were already kind 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:19.120 of willing to have more of a home life. And 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.520 I think that's going to kind of continue. So different 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:24.560 groups are going to do different things. But because of 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:27.960 the you know, the I think boomers UM rule the 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.120 world and I think that they're going to lead us 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:34.199 out of this UM. The last interesting thing is UM. 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:37.200 You know, the most recent data shows that seventy five 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:40.400 percent of the boomers plus have had at least one 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.320 shot from the COVID vaccine series. So I think that 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:46.680 gives them a lot of confidence to really get out there. 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.400 You know. The younger folks, UM, it's been more mixed, 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:51.760 you know, just I don't think there's as much urgency. 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:54.840 People are waiting to see if perhaps their schools are 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.840 going to require it in the fall, you know, if 0:10:56.840 --> 0:10:59.600 they're in college and people are making all different kinds 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.920 of choice is but you know, the older folks just 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:06.400 felt a little more urgency. And I think that's a 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.720 really healthy and great thing for the U. S. Economy. 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:21.320 It's interesting. I live in downtown Manhattan. I actually live 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.320 right next to Washington Square Park where you used to 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.680 one used to notice and absolutely agree. I've lived around 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.280 here for a long time, and when I was a kid, 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:35.280 um the streets were pretty much mobbed all night, uh 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:38.719 in this area, every every weekend night, certainly, And then 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:41.720 for the last ten years it's really been like you 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:43.720 could hear pin drop for most of the time. Part 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.120 of part of it is that, you know, the rents 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:49.640 and the houses here are now eleven million dollars no matter, 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.360 no matter what. But another part of it I always 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.480 thought was sort of people the kids are tapping into 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.200 their phones and staring at their phones and interacting via 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:00.440 things that don't require to go outside. I would just say, 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:04.480 in the last three months, two months, you haven't seen, 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:08.120 to put it mildly, the same reticence amongst the gen 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.040 y and the zoom, the zoom general, the very young generation. 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.679 They are outside in force at the moment. They will 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.720 not let me sleep the party until three in the 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.760 morning in Washington Square. Uh, they seem like they're very 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:24.040 interested in getting back on outside. But I do know 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:28.800 where you're coming from. I mean, um, who benefits from 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.320 just the boomer trade. I mean there are there companies 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.040 where this hasn't been priced in yet, is their industries, 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.000 because it seems like a lot of stuff that's it's 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.200 like the reopening because people have people have rooted it 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:42.840 out and found it. At this point, anywhere the boomers 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.520 direct they're spending. Uh, you know, they're gonna be big beneficiaries. 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:48.880 So you know, we're seeing, um, what I call the 0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:51.920 social interaction categories are really getting a big lift right now. 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:56.280 So um, you know, I'm seeing a tremendous momentum in retail. 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.280 So um, you know, just a lot of the departments doors, 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.920 the mall based retailers. You know, they really kind of 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:07.520 let us out of um, you know, the the rebound 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:12.080 and um, you know out of uh last year following 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.400 the vaccine announcements in November, So that group has been 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.920 really strong. Anything associated with travel, car rentals, uh, you know, 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:23.240 anything associated with services, and you know, a lot of 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:26.199 those stocks have moved quite a bit. So um, really, 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.559 what I love so much is that we're really entering 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.920 what I considered be a stock pickers market. Um, that's 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.080 really where you know, firms like mine, like Westwood shine. 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.040 So I'm really looking forward to many years of just 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.480 a really healthy market where we're really focused on the 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:45.480 fundamentals and you know, we have this really healthy, um, 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.480 long lasting spend backdrop. So one of the other things 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.840 I think people are overlooking, what I think consensus is that, Okay, 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.600 we had the stimulus checks. You know, we just got 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.440 checks the last round. You know, we've had over two 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.679 grand given out to you many many UM families and 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.160 that's wonderful, but um, you know, it's kind of one 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:07.679 and done, and I actually think it's going to be 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.600 more sustained. So we're having a tremendous positive wealth effect. 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:15.120 And so both the stock markets up double digits, home 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:19.280 valuations are up double digits as well, and people just 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.240 feel wealthier. They've saved quite a bit um. You know 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:26.920 in many cases, you know, obviously there's um the last 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.120 year was hard for everyone in different ways, and some 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:32.080 people you know, went through job loss and transitions. But 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:33.920 by and large, a lot of people made it through, 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.600 especially the oldest generation like the Boomers plus made it 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:41.120 through relatively unscathed. So I think that, um, you know, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.200 they're they are ready. There's all those areas where there's 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.720 pent up demand are going to continue to benefit and 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:48.840 the spending is going to be orderly. I don't think 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.360 it's gonna be so quick, um in goods and services 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:54.200 that it's going to force the fence hand and we're 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:57.040 gonna have to raise rates. You know, that's my personal opinion. 0:14:57.080 --> 0:14:59.840 I know that everyone kind of falls, you know, a 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.800 the spectrum in different places with different views on that. 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.840 But um, I think that if any area starts to 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:09.200 have too much inflation, then I think that people are 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:13.720 very rational and they're gonna take their tremendous savings and 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.600 they're gonna spend it in different categories that are more compelling. 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.680 So right now, the savings um is just over six 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.720 trillion dollars in the US, So that's four point three 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:27.080 trillion more than we had going into the pandemic. So 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.720 that's gonna take a long time to spend down, and 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.400 I think it will be fairly orderly. I think people 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:35.600 are going to take their time catching up with folks 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:39.680 and enjoying their lives. And um, you know, I'm seeing 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:43.520 it in fashion too. There's just so many exciting fashion 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:45.920 trends coming. I think people are really ready to be 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.560 happy again. Uh. The summer, it's all about the bright colors. 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:52.080 I don't know if you've been to the mall lately, 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:55.360 but it is just, uh, you know, it looks like 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.000 it was attacked by a highlighter. Um it was you 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.760 know you see me on girl means and electric blues, corals, 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:07.400 a big color hot pink, uh, you know, and just oranges. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:11.400 And people are ready to see and be seen again. Um. 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.160 Also for the fall, I was really excited to see 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:18.640 um the fall fashion. Lots of crazy patterns coming in 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.720 the fall. Just very interesting to look at something that 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.600 will catch the eye. And uh, I think that people 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.840 have been staring at the four walls of their home 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.320 for such a long time. They're just ready for variety, 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:33.840 and I think that's coming. It's a great perspective, Lauren, 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.520 because as you might be able to uh determine from 0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:40.120 looking at Chris and I, we don't know much about fashion. 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.880 I don't hear it but I wonder if fact that color, 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:45.840 that colors thing could be a good indicator, you know, 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:48.560 like the old hemline indicator they talk about if people 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:52.240 are in a fashion very bright and colorful fashion mode, 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:56.040 maybe maybe that that's a bullish sign. Um. I also, 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.320 I'm glad you're giving some props to the boomers, that 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:01.520 the group that does not get a lot of props 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.959 these days from the younger generation. I'm personally not a boomer. 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.720 I am accused of being one a lot on social media. 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:13.600 I'm not gonna speak for Chris. He might be yes, yes, 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:16.760 very I may be a little bit on the boomer 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.199 spectrum with at least it was musical to taste, I 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:23.159 will say, and perhaps perhaps fashion taste to kikkokies and 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:26.280 and whatnot. But I want to ask also about the 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:30.120 industrial So I know you follow industrials as well, Um, 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.159 and there was a lot of sort of enthusiasm towards 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:38.359 the industrial sector earlier this year. Now it's looking like, um, 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:42.320 the infrastructure bill is probably not going to necessarily go 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:46.400 anywhere in Congress. I mean, is there enough um sort 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.600 of juice in the economy to be excited about the 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:52.600 industrial sector as well, or is this, you know case 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:56.600 closed a consumer dominated sort of market story from a 0:17:56.640 --> 0:18:01.040 sector perspective. In your opinion, I am excited about the 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:05.360 consumer and what I'm seeing, you know, specifically within retail um. 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:08.439 You know, especially for businesses that have the strongest brands, 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:11.600 the deepest pockets, they can invest in omni channel. You know, 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.000 I think that's all a great opportunity. Looking over at 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:18.320 the industrials, uh, you know, I think that there's room 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.800 for excitement as far as there's some new technologies coming out, 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:24.879 and you know, anytime a company has you know, some 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.760 new great patents, some new product lines, they can grow. 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:30.240 I just think that there's kind of a limit or 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.240 a cap on how quickly that can grow. You know. 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.840 We we have the infrastructure that we have, and you know, 0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:40.880 there's a limit to what full production looks like for US, 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:44.199 and over time, the US has made less, you know, 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:48.560 and so that just um, you know, everyone wants to 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:50.920 get as much as they possibly can on the shelves. 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:54.840 Companies that have been running at all time low inventories 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:58.800 and seeing that across a number of subsectors, you know, 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:02.080 are very nervous in the the business um, the leaders 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:04.520 want to you know, keep a little extra. It's not 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:06.760 just about just in time anymore. They want to have 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.520 a little um more inventory than they have. So I 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.119 think we're gonna have some restocking, and that's you know, 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:15.520 a very positive thing. But you know, just from my 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:18.520 view also the evaluations there are more full in my 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:22.600 opinion in general, so it's just slimmer pickings and industrials. 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:25.520 I just tend to see more opportunity on the consumer 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:30.320 discusitionary side. And I find that that you're you're very 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:34.000 sanguine attitude here. I mean, it's great to hear. It's, uh, 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.720 thank god, somebody is so optimistic about the world, except 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.159 where people. I also have to say it does not 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:42.720 exactly accord with my view of what the life of 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:45.560 an equity analyst must have been like over the last year. 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:47.480 Like I know that your wild to your resume and 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:49.640 you did a lot of value work, which I think 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:55.320 is like the only really defensible approach to to security analysis. 0:19:55.800 --> 0:19:57.240 But I also have to think, I mean, you're in 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:00.480 charge of retail names, many of them must have been 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:05.920 by definition playing around near bankruptcy levels over the last year, 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:11.560 and now you're a sensible logic bearing analyst value value 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.959 analysts dealing with the market where God knows what is 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:18.639 coming for you. I mean, let's face a lot of 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:22.280 the meme stocks have been aimed at vaguely consumer Jason, 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:27.760 I mean not necessarily legitimate and viable consumer facing names, 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:29.520 but a lot of their interests has been in that 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:32.560 near that space. I just feel like I would be 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:35.520 hold up with the security blanket and a pacifier in 0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:38.520 a locked room somewhere if I had your job. What's 0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:41.639 it been like. I mean, that's Christmas Foster with his 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.440 job too. By the way, Yeah, I do that. I 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:49.480 do that regardless, I'm doing that now. No good to know. 0:20:49.680 --> 0:20:54.479 I totally hear you, but I guess just you know, 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:59.240 from my view, I actually thought was fascinating. You know, 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:03.160 my heart went out to UM everyone who had hard 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.800 times throughout you know, lots of families did, lots of 0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:08.879 people were affected. But as far as the market goes, 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:12.280 it was absolutely fascinating because it was a recession unlike 0:21:12.320 --> 0:21:16.280 any other half of my companies did better than ever 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:20.480 and you know, had high high demand. People were focused 0:21:20.520 --> 0:21:25.439 on their home, you know, uh, furniture and UM, getting 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.960 prepared for work at home, doing school from home. You know, 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:31.680 there was tremendous amount of spending that went into all 0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:34.840 of that. And at the same time, you know, no 0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:38.199 one was buying suits, no one was um, you know, 0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:42.840 buying structured clothes or um for formal gowns or you know, 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.160 going to events. All of that just dried up overnight. 0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:49.280 UM And luckily, UM, you know, I spent a number 0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:51.040 of years on the hedge fund side of the business, 0:21:51.080 --> 0:21:53.720 and you gush, you really have to babysit your shorts 0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:55.800 and spend so much time on those and that would 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.879