WEBVTT - COVID-19 Chapter 9: Economics 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.080 My name is Rachel Hagemeier. I am lucky enough to 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:07.000 work as the manager of Education and Community Engagement at 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:09.400 the Canton Symphony Orchestra in Canton, Ohio. 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:10.600 I am a. 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.120 Recent graduate of the Baldwin Wallace Conservatory of Music, where 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:18.000 I majored in bassoon performance and Arts Management and Entrepreneurship. 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:20.960 As someone who is in their first year of professional work, 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:23.280 I did not think that a global pandemic was going 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:26.119 to be my biggest worry while on the job, since 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:28.400 the majority of our patron base are elderly and more 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:31.240 at risk to COVID nineteen. We were watching the outbreak 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:34.760 very closely. Over the last week of February and the 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.440 first week of March, when reports of cases in America 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:40.080 were becoming far more frequent, we knew that we had 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.400 to start thinking about what would happen if we closed down. 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.760 We watched preparedness videos and started creating plans for working 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:50.800 from home, canceling concerts, etc. We hoped that we wouldn't 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.479 have to use any of these plans, but unfortunately that 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.440 was not the case. This is my fifth week working 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:58.960 from home and the Symphony has now canceled all of 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:01.280 our concerts and events through the end of the season, 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:04.319 which is June twelfth. We canceled our fundraiser and have 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.880 announced we'll be doing a shorter season next year. Working 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.360 from home isn't all that bad. I've been able to 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.720 connect with our community through online educational videos and more 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:18.400 social media presence. But I've been worried. Worried about our musicians, 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.960 who make their living in a gig economy. With this 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:24.000 pandemic and the shutdown of live music, so many people 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:27.679 have lost their source of income. Thankfully, the Canton Symphony 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:29.840 has been able to pay musicians a portion of what 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:33.080 they would have received for concerts canceled. But what about 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.360 the income from smaller concerts we were going to put on. 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:39.119 What about other orchestras. What about their gigs for weddings, Easter, 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:40.960 maybe even this coming summer. 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:41.920 Nothing. 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.640 I've been worried for our students and the community's teachers. 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.480 Seniors have had their last year taken away from them. Students' 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.240 ability to learn their instruments in an ensemble setting has 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:55.080 been taken away from them. I'm worried for the future 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:57.640 of the symphony. How long will we be able to 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:01.600 support this financially? A grant from the government will only 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:05.440 last so long. America's orchestras and the arts in America 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.880 are suffering because of this pandemic. We are unsure how 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:10.959 this will affect things in the long run, but there's 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:15.200 a strong likelihood that this could break many organizations. Life 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:18.600 is now planning for a future that is uncertain. Life 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.320 is now trying our best to connect with our community 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:26.440 through rebroadcasts of concerts, virtual orchestra, online education content, and 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:29.840 home videos for musicians. I am trying to use this 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.440 time to work on collaborations and projects I didn't have 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:36.320 time for before. I'm trying to stay positive, but it's 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:40.240 hard when the future is uncertain. I know this isn't forever. 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.000 I'm grateful that I work in a field that expresses 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:47.880 the human experience and connects people despite political, racial, geographical, 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:52.160 or economic differences. Music is something all humans have in common. 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.040 It's something we can share while we are separated during 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.520 this pandemic. I only hope that the organizations that provide 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.040 these experiences to the world will be supported through this 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:04.560 pandemic and come out of the other side stronger than ever, 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.560 ready to spread the joy and connection that music provides. 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:11.960 My name is a Leah Crabtree and I live and 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.880 work in Seattle, Washington with my girlfriend and our menagerie 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:18.560 of pets. The industry we both work in is hospitality. 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.280 I am a bartender and server at a sports bar 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:24.880 in downtown in the Financial District. I have been in 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:27.480 this industry now for over ten years, and while it 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:30.359 can be difficult, I really enjoy the fast paced nature 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:34.080 and the social interaction. I first became aware of COVID 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:37.080 nineteen back in early January. We were discussing it at 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.600 work and later discovered one of the first US cases 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.920 was in our state. It wasn't until March that things 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:48.560 became more apocalyptic. About a weekendo March, more and more restaurants, bars, 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:51.400 and hotels were laying off staff or deciding to close 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.520 up for the month. As our customers dwindled, so did 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.520 our hope of getting through this winter. We had all 0:03:57.640 --> 0:04:00.080 just made it through the slowest months for sales in 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.960 our industry, and we're looking forward to spring, when business 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:07.440 would inevitably start ramping up monetarily during the winter months, 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:09.800 those who have savings from the summer are living off 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:12.360 of that, so when spring hits, we are all out 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.400 of hot water and can afford to live actual lives 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:18.880 and not be ruled by work. By March fifteenth, when 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:21.120 the orders came that we had to shut down, there 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:25.440 were many restaurants that had already permanently closed. Corporate restaurants 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.640 will most likely make it through this pandemic unscathed, but 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:31.760 many of the other restaurants that have made Seattle their 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:33.760 home will struggle to make it through. 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:33.920 This. 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.800 Rent is very high and has already been pricing not 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.839 only business but people out of the city for years. 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:43.719 Adding to that the amount of food that has gone 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:47.159 to waste or given away, the cost of restocking the 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:51.640 walk in fridges will be nearly unaffordable. Most of us 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:54.680 live day to day while we work. Our paychecks don't 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.279 particularly go a long way, as much of the money 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:00.160 we earn as in cash. There is an execut of 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:03.320 order that landlords cannot evict during this time, and utilities 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:06.280 will not be shut off, but they continue to accrue, 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.880 forcing those of us that cannot pay into debt. I 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:12.919 struggle to think about how long this pandemic will continue 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:16.480 when we slowly get back to normal. How long will 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.760 some of us be out of work? How long will 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:22.120 we be able to survive through this. I lost my 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:24.240 health insurance, so I cannot afford to go to my 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:27.000 therapist until I get either health care from the state 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.400 or go back to work full time. I am struggling 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.279 with the decision of potentially getting into another line of work, 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:35.920 but if I get a job, I no longer qualify 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.120 for benefits and would then have to wait longer to 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:42.840 receive anything through my employer. I am stuck between a 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:45.560 rock and a hard place, and the only thing I 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:48.680 can do now is wait and try to enjoy this staycation, 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:50.919 make the best out of this time I get to 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:53.000 spend with my partner and our pets. 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:58.000 My name is Jessica. I'm twenty seven years old and 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:01.000 live in a semi rural town in New South Wales, Australia. 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:04.160 Up until a few years ago, I worked in childcare 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.320 before I started caring full time for my elderly grandparents, 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:11.280 both of whom have many medical conditions such as diabetes, 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:16.360 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema, and heart failure. Prior to 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:20.680 the pandemic, our days were simple, busy but simple morning 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:24.640 medication breakfast. Then our days would consist of doctor's appointments 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:28.120 or errands. On average, there were four to five medical 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:32.320 or care related appointments per week. Afternoons would usually consist 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:37.039 of social activities, more errands or rest. Then nights were 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:41.599 more medications and showering. I first started really feeling the 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:45.040 impacts of the pandemic in March. My grandparents were told 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:47.080 to limit when they leave the house and to self 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:50.640 isolate due to their health conditions. They were and still 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:54.240 are vulnerable and at risk. This also meant I had 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:56.359 to do the same, so I didn't spread the germs 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:59.720 to them. Unfortunately, we live a day to day life. 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.599 When I comes to finances, due to caring for them, 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:05.680 I cannot commit to a job. Their appointments and medical 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:08.440 needs take up a lot, if not all, of my time. 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:11.680 I'm fortunate to get welfare from the government, but this 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.680 only goes so far, especially right now during the pandemic, 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:17.880 we cannot afford to bulk buy things, and during the 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.520 initial panic buying it was hard to get our hands 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:24.200 on anything. I was full of guilt here. I am 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:26.840 supposed to care for them, but I couldn't even provide 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:31.280 the simple things like toilet paper and bread due to 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.760 our finances and medical needs. It was also hard to 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:37.640 self isolate or quarantine ourselves. It's a constant battle between 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.200 protecting them from the virus and protecting them from their 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:44.720 medical issues. There's always judgment from people. Why do I 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.280 need to go out so much? Why can't I just 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.640 stay at home? Why am I putting myself and loved 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.600 ones at risk? I ask myself these questions too, But 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.760 the answer is simple. My grandparents' lives depend on it. 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.960 They depend on me. Being stuck at home is hard 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:01.480 on my grandparents. I can see the negative effect it 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:04.760 has had on their physical and emotional well being. They're 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.840 no longer able to attend their rehabilitation and physical therapy, 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:10.640 leading to more pain and a decrease in their ability 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:14.680 to move around. Emotionally, they're missing their social outings. They 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.400 feel alone. They're older, and technology isn't easy to understand 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:23.440 for them. They, like me, are also scared. I'm terrified 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.280 of the potential of my grandparents getting COVID nineteen because 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:29.720 I know their chances of survival if the infection was severe, 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:32.199 would be slim to none. I couldn't live with the 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:34.439 guilt if I was the reason they caught the virus, 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.080 even if I know that my leaving the house is 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.240 in their best interest. Right now, it's a constant struggle 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:42.240 and I feel like whether I leave the house or not, 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.040 I lose. There is no winning until there is a 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.040 vaccine or some end to this pandemic. 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.160 Thank you so much to everyone who took the time 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:38.200 to send us those amazing first hand accounts. We really 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:40.360 appreciate it. Thank you so much. 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:43.920 We've read every single one and really really enjoy reading them. 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:46.400 Wish that we could have every single one on the podcast, 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:51.160 but thank you all so much. Yes, Hi, I'm Erin 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:54.360 Welsh and I'm Erin Olman Updyke, and this. 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:55.680 Is this podcast will kill you. 0:09:56.520 --> 0:10:00.959 Yes, we are on episode nine. 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:04.000 Episode nine. That's a lot of episodes, Erin, I know, 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.360 in a very short amount of time, a very short 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:08.000 amount of time. 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.400 This is our Anatomy of a Pandemic series, where each 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:16.000 episode we're discussing a different aspect of the COVID nineteen pandemic. 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.679 So this week is quite a bit of a deviation 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:22.160 from our normal because we're going to try to wrap 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.480 our heads around the economic impacts that we've seen so 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.559 far and what we might expect to see moving forward. 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:36.400 Yeah, So Aaron, we are disease ecologists and epidemiologists. Why 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:39.080 are we talking about the economy? 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.280 Okay, it's a good question, I. 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:46.920 Mean, and it's we are talking about it for many 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.079 different reasons. Yeah. 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.480 So, one of the things that we've always tried to 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:56.000 do with this podcast is explore the many different ways 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:58.920 that disease has impacted humanity. 0:10:59.120 --> 0:10:59.320 Right. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:04.080 Our normal episodes take the form of one disease that 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:08.240 we explore through space and time, Right, Like, we talk 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.280 about the biology of how it makes you sick, but 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.400 we also spend a lot of time on the history 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:15.360 of how this disease has moved through populations and the 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:20.040 impacts that it has had across many different facets of humanity. 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.040 Right. And if you've listened to an episode before, you 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.800 know that you can't look at these diseases or these 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:30.960 epidemics in a vacuum. You have to consider other aspects 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:35.319 because they involve people, and people are very complex creatures 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:40.640 with culture and politics and history and thought and all 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.840 of these different aspects that you lose a lot by 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:47.360 just looking at it in a very directed way. And 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:49.920 so we're kind of using this pandemic as an opportunity 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:53.440 to say, hey, look at the myriad ways that COVID 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:58.360 nineteen is impacting life and humans and humanity. And so 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:00.680 that's why we kind of decided to dive into the 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.720 economic discussion of this pandemic, right. 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:07.040 It's something that I think had this pandemic happened in 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:10.720 the past, we would have touched upon the economic impact 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:13.400 of it in our history section of a normal podcast. 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.800 But it's just like we're living through this now, right, 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.360 rather than looking back on this historically, and so we 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.240 do want to make sure that we're looking at all 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:22.080 the aspects of it. 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:30.120 Absolutely. Yeah, so okay, So, but before we dive into 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:34.600 this aspect of COVID nineteen, we have a few pieces 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:38.600 of business to cover. So once again, first hand accounts, 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:41.080 we are still looking for them if you are still 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.600 willing to provide them. And we also want to again 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.880 thank everyone, every single person who is sent in their 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:52.360 first hand account. We really appreciate it. Another piece of 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:56.640 business is alcohol free episodes, So again you can find 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:00.880 episodes with the quarantiney talk edited out under the episode's 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:05.280 tab on our website. And one last thing, we have 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.960 bookshop dot org affiliate page. You can find a link 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:12.200 on our website underneath the books tab to bookshop dot 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.680 org and that'll take you to our affiliate page on 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.559 bookshop dot org. And so Bookshop is once again an 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:22.040 online bookseller that works with independent bookstores to help them 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.040 sell books. And I think we have one more. 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:29.680 Thing of the most important piece of business. It's quarantiney time. 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:35.840 Is quarantiny time? Okay, what are we drinking this week? 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:41.720 Quarantiney number nine stands to reason, uh huh, what's in 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:42.040 this one? 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:46.640 Erin this one is basically the last word? So what's 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:51.439 in the last word? It is jin lusardo, limejuice and chartruse. 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:53.040 Yum. 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:59.480 Yeah, it's delicious. Actually, it is fantastic. There we go, easypsy. 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:00.840 That's going to be a fun one to make the 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.200 suberita for. I don't know what I'm gonna do. How 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.720 do you substitute chartruse? What flavor is chartrus It's like 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:11.200 a million herbs, It's like basically the KFC, a million 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.120 unknown herbs and spices. 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:18.439 Herbal tea, herbal iced tea. 0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:23.560 That could be a good. Well, we'll see, we'll make 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:23.880 it work. 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.360 Don't worry, don't worry. We'll find a way. 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:30.320 We will. Okay, we will post the recipe for our 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.800 quarantine and our non alcoholic with Suberita on our website 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:36.400 this podcast will kill You dot com and follow along 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:40.119 in all of our social media to see the Quarantini 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:41.280 posts in real time. 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:47.200 All right, So this episode, we are absolutely, without a doubt, 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:51.040 going further outside of our wheelhouse than we've ever gone before. 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.200 But like we already said, we feel it's a really 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.040 important topic to address in the context of this pandemic. 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:01.480 So we're talking today about economics. We've all seen the 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:07.800 headlines about unemployment rates skyrocketing. Probably every single one listening 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.920 knows at least one person who's out of work right now. 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.720 I know I do, or are themselves out of work 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:15.160 exactly right. 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:18.400 It's a really scary situation for a lot of people 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:19.520 financially right now. 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:24.600 But like we said, we're disease ecologists an epidemiologist. We 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.920 don't know anything about economics or the economy. I don't 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.760 think I could give a definition of the word economy 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.440 before this interview, and frankly, I'm not sure I could 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:36.760 right now after we've already had it. 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:38.440 But I did learn a lot. 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:43.080 Yeah, we learned a ton. So as usual, we sought 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.600 out the expertise of someone who does know what they're 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.680 talking about, and we were thrilled to get to speak 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:52.760 with Martha Gimble, who has extensive experience in economics and 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:56.640 economic research, and we will let her introduce herself and 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.840 explain how in the heck we even measure the status 0:15:59.880 --> 0:16:03.800 of the economy, whatever that means, right after this break. 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:26.840 My name is Martha Gimble. 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:29.760 I'm the manager of economic research at Schmidt Futures, which 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.640 is a philanthropic initiative started by Eric and Wendy Schmidt. 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.920 My background is in economic policy and labor market data. 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.040 So in a previous life, I was the research director 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.160 at indeed dot com, which I think I'm still contractually 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:47.000 obligated to say is the world's number one job search website. 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.600 And before that, I worked on the Hill at the 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:53.440 Joint Economic Committee, which is Congress's sort of internal economic 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:58.120 think tank, and then worked at the Council of Economic 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.920 Advisors at the White House and also at the Department 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:06.840 of Labor, where I specialized in unemployment insurance, among other things. 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:11.040 Excellent, Well, thank you for coming on to talk to 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:15.000 us today. We are, as we told you, not experts 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:18.160 in the economy. So we're wondering if you could help 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.560 first sort of set the stage for us a bit 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.960 in terms of what the economy in the US, or 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:25.879 if you could talk a little bit about what it 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:28.439 looked like broadly, what did it look like in the 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:30.919 months leading up to this pandemic, and what are some 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:34.119 of the indicators that we use to know how the 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:35.280 economy is doing. 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.240 Yeah, so, if you look at the economy in the 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:43.200 United States leading up to the pandemic, it was in 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:50.240 incredibly good shape. We had record low unemployment rates. Perhaps 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:53.400 more importantly, and I can get into why we care 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:58.280 about this, we had the employment population ratio among what 0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:00.880 economists like to refer to as prime age, which by 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:02.800 which we mean age twenty five to fifty four. 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:07.080 Never let economists name anything. Workers was, you know. 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:13.040 Continually improving. We had really fast wage growth for low 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.760 wage workers in particular, which is exciting because those are 0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:20.000 the workers who most need a wage. And so what 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.760 you had was an economy where workers could find work, 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:26.840 Workers who had even given up on finding work were 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:30.920 coming back into the labor market, and the workers who 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:33.119 most needed a raise were getting a raise. 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:36.480 Wow, that's good news. 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:38.600 Yeah, that was a great time to be alive. 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:44.120 Oh boy, So can you talk a little bit more 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.720 about these indicators? Are there some that are more important 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:48.280 than others? 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:49.359 Yeah? 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:53.399 So, I think the thing that often confuses non economists 0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:57.679 the most is the unemployment rate. So economists mean a 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:03.280 very specific thing when we unemployment rate, we mean that one, 0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:05.879 you don't have a job. I think that part is obvious, 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:10.359 but we also mean that you are actively looking for work. 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:15.679 And so that can end up being really confusing to 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.600 a lot of people, and it can also end up 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.199 skewing the numbers a little bit, particularly if people feel 0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:24.960 really discouraged by the labor market. You saw this during 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:29.439 the Great recession. And so people often say that the 0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:32.639 unemployment rate is you know, fake, or it's not counting 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:34.560 the right thing, and you know that's not right. It's 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:40.240 just counting a very specific definition of unemployment. That means 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:43.840 that sometimes people are more likely to look at the 0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:47.159 employment to population ratio, and that is exactly what it 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:49.960 sounds like. It is the share of the population age 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:51.760 sixteen or over, because we don't really care four year 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:55.840 olds are working with a job. Then we get into 0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.439 the prime age restriction and the re and we do 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:02.760 that is that we have an aging population, and in 0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:04.879 the same way that we're okay with four year olds 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:07.720 not working, we're also okay with eighty year olds not working. 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:11.239 That's not really an indication of economic health. And so 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:15.520 if you restrict to the percent of the population ages 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:19.800 twenty five to fifty four with a job, that's been 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:25.320 a pretty good barometer in recent years of people coming 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.399 back into the labor market and finding work. I'm going 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:30.480 to insert a brief caveat here, which is that it 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.280 doesn't work particularly well if you're looking trying to compare 0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:37.159 today to say, nineteen fifty two, because if it were 0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:39.639 nineteen fifty two, the three of us probably would not 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:41.760 be working. So you had so many women who've come 0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:44.480 into the labor market, which means that the percentage of 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:46.800 the population with a job you would just expect to 0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.760 have gone up. So you can't do historical comparisons in 0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:51.920 the same way going way back. 0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:53.080 With that number. 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:57.080 But if you're looking at say now versus two thousand, 0:20:57.800 --> 0:20:58.719 it's less of a concern. 0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:02.120 It's very interesting, yeah, yeah. 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:06.520 And so when you look at the population overall with 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:09.119 a job, does this mean sort of any type of 0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:12.680 employment even if it's part time employment or anything like that. 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:16.600 Yes, and this is another incredibly important indicator that we 0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:19.760 look at. So there is something that the Bureau of 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:24.040 Labor Statistics calls part time for economic reasons, which is 0:21:24.080 --> 0:21:26.359 a very fancy way of saying you're part time, but 0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.240 you don't want to be. So there's the rate of part. 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:30.760 Time work overall. 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:32.680 But there are plenty of people who work part time 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:34.919 and that works for them, and we're good with that. Like, 0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:37.000 if you want to work twenty hours a week and 0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:41.359 you have twenty hours, great, we are on board. So 0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:44.720 part time for economic reasons is the share of the 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:47.360 labor force. And by the way, when I say labor force, 0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:50.200 I mean people who are either employed or unemployed who 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:54.280 are working part time but would prefer full time work. 0:21:54.840 --> 0:22:00.440 Okay, gotcha, gotcha? Okay. So moving on from this beautiful 0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:04.640 image of strong economy and growth, growth, growth, that kind 0:22:04.680 --> 0:22:08.639 of has changed, right and in the past month or 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:10.920 several months. So could you kind of take us through 0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:15.360 a timeline of the economic impact that COVID nineteen has 0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:18.040 had so far, starting with like, when what were the 0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:21.960 first signs that we saw something is wrong or that 0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:25.000 this pandemic is going to have a major effect, and 0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:28.119 were there certain industries that felt the impacts of the 0:22:28.160 --> 0:22:32.040 pandemic first, and then maybe kind of bring us up 0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:35.240 to where we stand right now as of April fourteenth 0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:37.320 at three pm Eastern time. 0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:42.880 So I'm going to start off with one caveat before 0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:45.480 I dive into your question, which is that we were 0:22:45.480 --> 0:22:49.240 in this amazing place of growth, growth, growth, and also 0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:52.000 we had just been coming back from the great procession 0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:54.560 we had been dealing with the recovery in the mid 0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:58.480 two thousands. And the reason that all that is important 0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:02.080 is that there are you know, plenty of economic indicators 0:23:02.119 --> 0:23:04.520