WEBVTT - McDonald's Plummets on Deadly Outbreak; Harris-Trump Ramp Up Campaigns

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, we begin with a health scare at McDonald's and

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<v Speaker 2>a plunge in shares of the fast food giant. For

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<v Speaker 2>the latest, let's bring in Bloomberg's John Tucker, John and Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>The CDC says forty nine people from ten states have

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<v Speaker 3>contracted E coli traced to ingredients in McDonald's quarter pounders.

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<v Speaker 3>Ten people have been hospitalized. An elderly person in Colorado

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<v Speaker 3>has died. Every patient interviewed by the CDC said they

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<v Speaker 3>ate at McDonald's before falling ill. Most of the eight

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<v Speaker 3>quarter pounder hamburger specifically, McDonald's USA president is Joe Erlinger.

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<v Speaker 4>This is a temporary change as the investigation continues, and

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<v Speaker 4>we are working quickly to return our full menu in

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<v Speaker 4>these states as soon as possible.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the company thinks it could be the youngions that

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<v Speaker 3>going to quarter pounders. Apparently the quarter pounders are the

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<v Speaker 3>only sandwiches that routinely take these particular onions. The true

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<v Speaker 3>number of people, in fact, it likely much higher than

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<v Speaker 3>is currently known, and may involve additional states. According to

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<v Speaker 3>the CDC, McDonald's is a member of the DELL also

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<v Speaker 3>has the thirty fifth biggest waiting of the S and

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<v Speaker 3>P five hundred. A major outbreak is going to haunt

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<v Speaker 3>restaurant chains for years. You'll recall back in twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 3>an E. Colian neurovirus outbreak across Chipotle locations in multiple

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<v Speaker 3>states led to a drastic drop in sales there. McDonald's

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<v Speaker 3>shares down six percent pre market in New York. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, John, thank you. Now we want to turn

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<v Speaker 1>to geopolitics and the latest from the Middle East. Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of State Anony blenk In is on his way to

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<v Speaker 1>Saudi Arabia after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

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<v Speaker 1>nettan Yahoo in Jerusalem. He says they both agree that

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<v Speaker 1>the killing of Hamas leader Yaya Sinwar has opened new

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<v Speaker 1>possibilities for ending the war in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 5>You're resolute in our defense of Israel when it comes

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<v Speaker 5>to a tax it's receiving from Iran, from Iran's proxies,

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<v Speaker 5>and we stand with Israel, and we'll always stand with

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<v Speaker 5>Israel in its defense. It's also very important that Israel

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<v Speaker 5>respond in ways that do not create greater escalation and

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<v Speaker 5>do not risk breading the conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Blenkin is on his eleventh trip to the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East since the October seventh Hamas attack that sparked the

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza conflict. Overnight, Israel said it confirm the death of

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<v Speaker 1>cleric Haschem Safadin at an airstrike in Lebanon three weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 1>He was widely expected to become the next leader of

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<v Speaker 1>Hesbola after the killing of Hassan ISRAELA.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, Karen, let's head back to the US and get

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<v Speaker 2>the latest from the campaign trail. Kamala Harris says she

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<v Speaker 2>would work with Congress to raise the federal minimum wage

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<v Speaker 2>to at least fifteen dollars an hour if elected. The

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<v Speaker 2>Vice president discussed your economic proposals in an interview with

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<v Speaker 2>NBC News.

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<v Speaker 6>My plans are focused on working people, the middle class,

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<v Speaker 6>and what we must do is strengthen hardworking people to

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<v Speaker 6>be able to to do what they dream and aspire

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<v Speaker 6>to be able to do. His plans are about giving

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<v Speaker 6>tax cuts, massive tax cuts to billionaires in big corporations.

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<v Speaker 2>Vice President Harris has called for raising the minimum wage before,

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<v Speaker 2>but hasn't specified a dollar amount. Former President Trump sidestepped

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<v Speaker 2>a question about the issue during a campaign stop at

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<v Speaker 2>a McDonald's in Pennsylvania over the weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>Well Nathan Donald Trump was back in North Carolina last night,

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<v Speaker 1>outing his pledge to make it easier to buy a car.

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<v Speaker 4>I will make interest on car loans fully tax deductible,

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<v Speaker 4>because affording a car is essential to restoring the American.

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<v Speaker 1>At a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, the former president

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<v Speaker 1>said the tax break would only apply to cars made

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<v Speaker 1>in the US. He did not say whether his plan

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<v Speaker 1>would apply to foreign owned automakers that manufacture in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>like Volkswagen, Toyota, and Hyundai.

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<v Speaker 2>Well Karen Donald Trump's views on monetary policymakers in global

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<v Speaker 2>trade are being challenged by Christine Legard. In an interview

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<v Speaker 2>with Bloomberg, the European Central Bank president invited the Republican

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<v Speaker 2>nominee to ec he's headquarters in Frankfurt.

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<v Speaker 7>He should come and visit us, And you know I

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<v Speaker 7>have I have thousands of hard working people, economists, jurists,

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<v Speaker 7>a computer scientists, and I can assure you that they

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<v Speaker 7>work super hard every day, not just once a month.

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<v Speaker 2>ECB President Christine Legard made the comments to Bloomberg's Francine Lockwa.

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump told Bloomberg earlier this month, the FED share

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<v Speaker 2>has the greatest job in government. In his words, you

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<v Speaker 2>show up to the office once a month.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, turning to the markets now, Nathan, bonds are extending

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<v Speaker 1>to clients this morning. They have sold off significantly since

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed started cutting interest rates. Two year treasury yields

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<v Speaker 1>have climbed thirty four basis points in September. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>move not seen since nineteen ninety five. Bank of America

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<v Speaker 1>CEO Brian moyna has has urged Federal Reserve policymakers to

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<v Speaker 1>be measured.

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<v Speaker 4>We've got to get back in line. And so they're

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<v Speaker 4>on that path. They're late to the game. They've got

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<v Speaker 4>to make sure they don't go too hard now. And

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<v Speaker 4>that's what they are all trying to figure out. Watching

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<v Speaker 4>the data.

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<v Speaker 1>Brian moynihan tells Bloomberg he expects the FED to cut

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<v Speaker 1>rates by fifty basis points by the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that differs Karen from the view of Apollo Management

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<v Speaker 2>chief economist Torsten Slock. He says the chances are rising

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<v Speaker 2>the Fed doesn't cut at all next month.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you really do begin to ask the question,

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<v Speaker 1>where is the slowdown?

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<v Speaker 2>And as we've been debating before, so it's monetary policy

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<v Speaker 2>really restrictive.

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<v Speaker 1>If it is so restrictive, why is the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>Still doing so well?

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<v Speaker 2>Apollo Management chief economists Torsten Slocks says tailwinds from looser

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<v Speaker 2>financial conditions, higher government spending, and elevated stocks and GDP

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<v Speaker 2>growth are building well.

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan, is a busy day on the earnings front, with

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<v Speaker 1>nearly three dozen companies in the SNP five hundred reporting.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll hear from Coca Cola, IBM, and AT and T today.

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<v Speaker 1>We also have a couple of big reports out of Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>This morning, we go to London and get the latest

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg's Ewen Paus. Good morning, Ewen.

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<v Speaker 8>Karla Nathan Deeutsche Bank kaz apport today. Forty two percent

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<v Speaker 8>increase in profits in the third quarter are help by

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<v Speaker 8>gains at the investment bank, but Germany's biggest lender also

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<v Speaker 8>sounding a note of course and setting aside more money

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<v Speaker 8>to cover bad debt. Over at Heineken, it was bad

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<v Speaker 8>weather in Europe and slow consumer spending in the US

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<v Speaker 8>that saw bier volumes misestimates, but the Dutch brewer says

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<v Speaker 8>higher pricing means it will still hit its profit target

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<v Speaker 8>for the year and over at the world's biggest beauty company.

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<v Speaker 8>Another sales decline in China, the fifth straight quarter of

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<v Speaker 8>lower sales there for Laurel investors today asking if the

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<v Speaker 8>shares are still worth it? In London, I'm you Imports

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<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks you, and Apple CEO Tim Cook is in China,

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<v Speaker 2>promising to keep investing in the country during a meeting

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<v Speaker 2>with Beijing's top technology official. China is the world's largest

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<v Speaker 2>smartphone market and remains Apple's most important market outside the US.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Tim Cook's second visit to the country this year.

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<v Speaker 1>And finally, Nathan, what would you like to hear about

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio? Help make shures like ours even better

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<v Speaker 1>by taking our Bloomberg Audience survey. Visit YouTube dot com

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<v Speaker 1>slash Bloomberg podcast and click the link in our profile

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<v Speaker 1>or community section to take this survey, which is hosted

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<v Speaker 1>by our partner's Material. Fill it out now at YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>dot com slash Bloomberg Podcasts. Time now for look at

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<v Speaker 1>some of the other stories making news in New York

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world, and for that we're joined by

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning, Good.

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<v Speaker 9>Morning, Karen. The Georgia Supreme Court rejected a last minute

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<v Speaker 9>push by the Republican Party to reinstate a set of

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<v Speaker 9>new election rules that included, among other things, a requirement

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<v Speaker 9>that ballots be handcounted in the upcoming US presidential vote.

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<v Speaker 9>The Republican National Committee challenged a lower court's decision last

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<v Speaker 9>week to strike down the rules as unlawful. Scott Turner,

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<v Speaker 9>founder of the nonprofit Eternal Vigilance.

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<v Speaker 2>Action, that collective sigh of relief you heard was from

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<v Speaker 2>our election officials around the state.

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<v Speaker 9>The court's decision means the rules will remain blocked at

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<v Speaker 9>least heading into the November fifth election. Two Georgia election

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<v Speaker 9>workers to fame by former Trump attorney rudyja Gi are

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<v Speaker 9>getting some of his prized possessions. The ruling comes from

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<v Speaker 9>a federal judge, as Ruby Freeman and Shay Moss have

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<v Speaker 9>been trying to collect on a one hundred and forty

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<v Speaker 9>six million dollar defamation judgment. The possessions include his nineteen

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<v Speaker 9>eighty Mercedes Benz, signed photos of Yankees' legends, some luxury watches,

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<v Speaker 9>and his New York City apartment. We're learning more about

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<v Speaker 9>the arrest of the former CEO of Abercrombie and Fitch.

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<v Speaker 9>Michael Jeffries, along with two other co defendants, have been

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<v Speaker 9>indicted for allegedly running an international prostitution and sex trafficking

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<v Speaker 9>ring for decades. According to the Eastern District of New York,

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<v Speaker 9>they forced male models into participating in lude acts. US

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<v Speaker 9>Attorney Brion Peace to anyone who thinks they can exploit

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<v Speaker 9>and coerce others by using the so called casting couch system,

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<v Speaker 9>this case is served as a warning Jeffrey's attorney. He

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<v Speaker 9>says that they will respond in court, not in the media.

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<v Speaker 9>Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gasson says that he'll

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<v Speaker 9>have an announcement soon on his decision regarding a possible

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<v Speaker 9>re sentencing of the Menendez brothers.

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<v Speaker 1>As I said about it ten days ago, I said

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<v Speaker 1>I would make a decision within ten days or so.

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<v Speaker 3>I planned to have a decision by the end of

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<v Speaker 3>this week.

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<v Speaker 9>Lyell and Eric Menendez were sentenced to life in prison

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<v Speaker 9>for the nineteen eighty nine murders of their parents. Their

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<v Speaker 9>defense team says there is new evidence supporting the brothers

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<v Speaker 9>claims of sexual and physical abuse by their parents. New

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<v Speaker 9>York's MTA may face a six hundred and fifty two

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<v Speaker 9>million dollars budget shortfall in twenty twenty eight, as higher

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<v Speaker 9>overtime costs and lower fare box collections threatened to strain

0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:48.760
<v Speaker 9>the transit agency's finances. New York State Comptrollert Thomas Denopoli

0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:52.199
<v Speaker 9>warned in a report that about two hundred million dollars

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<v Speaker 9>larger than the MTA's own production projections for its budget

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<v Speaker 9>gap in twenty twenty eight. Global News twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 9>Day and Whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

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<v Speaker 9>Michael Barbs is Bloomberg hereing.

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<v Speaker 1>Sorry Michael Barr, thank you time now for the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Sports update. Bron to you by try State Outie. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>John Stashauer, John, good morning.

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<v Speaker 10>Good morning, Karen. The Knicks made a couple of big

0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.320
<v Speaker 10>offseason moves in hopes of catching the Celtics to the

0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:24.280
<v Speaker 10>Eastern Conference. They added Karl Anthony Towns and Mchal Bridges

0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:27.760
<v Speaker 10>for one night. Anyway, those moves didn't help open the

0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.679
<v Speaker 10>night in Boston, so the Celtics Oyster the championship ender

0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:32.480
<v Speaker 10>and then took a twenty four point lead in the

0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:35.240
<v Speaker 10>first half. Boston won won thirty two to one.

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<v Speaker 9>On nine.

0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.320
<v Speaker 10>Jason Tatum scored thirty seven. He made eight of the

0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:42.280
<v Speaker 10>Celtics twenty nine three pointers. Twenty nine threes ties the

0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.880
<v Speaker 10>NBA record. Then some NBA history in La Lebron James

0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:48.120
<v Speaker 10>sharing the court with his son Bronni. You only played

0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:51.120
<v Speaker 10>three minutes. The Lakers beat Minnesota. Good start for the Rangers,

0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:52.959
<v Speaker 10>good start to their season. They're five oho to one

0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.640
<v Speaker 10>in Montreal, two goals in the first two minutes. Rangers

0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:58.240
<v Speaker 10>won seven to two. Devils lost to Tampa Bay eight

0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.360
<v Speaker 10>to five. The Islanders lost to a t That's right,

0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:03.360
<v Speaker 10>one nothing. Capitol's won four one in Philadelphia. The Bruins

0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:06.520
<v Speaker 10>shut out in Nashville for nothing. No lack of star

0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.360
<v Speaker 10>power for the World Series against Friday in LA. But

0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:12.440
<v Speaker 10>there's no doubt who the biggest headliners are. And here's

0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:14.400
<v Speaker 10>Aaron Judge on shoe Hey Otani.

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<v Speaker 11>It's for average, it's for power, the speed, you know,

0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.080
<v Speaker 11>doing what he did this year with the fifty stolen bases.

0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.000
<v Speaker 11>That's it got talked about a lot I don't think

0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:25.240
<v Speaker 11>it got talked about enough. It's just he's an impressive,

0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.400
<v Speaker 11>impressive athlete, you know, the best player in the game

0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.400
<v Speaker 11>and order to ambassador for the sport.

0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:33.640
<v Speaker 10>Speaking of out Tony, the ball he hit for his

0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:36.240
<v Speaker 10>fiftieth home run was sold a option for four point

0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.800
<v Speaker 10>four million. Meanwhile, Dodger legend has passed away. Fernando Alezuela

0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.440
<v Speaker 10>was sixty three, had been ill, came from Mexico, burst

0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:45.440
<v Speaker 10>onto the scene as a twenty year old. In nineteen

0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 10>eighty one, Fernando Mania was born. He won the Rookie

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.319
<v Speaker 10>of the Year and the say Young John Stashey, We're

0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:51.920
<v Speaker 10>Bloomberg Sports Karen Ethan.

0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:58.040
<v Speaker 12>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:02.360
<v Speaker 12>and around the world on Bloomberg and the Bloomberg Business app.

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.440
<v Speaker 12>This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager bringing you an exclusive conversation

0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.880
<v Speaker 2>with Bank of America's CEO Brian moynihan. Speaking with Bloomberg's

0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.240
<v Speaker 2>Heidi Stroud Watts in Sydney. They talked about interest rates,

0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:16.600
<v Speaker 2>his warning for the FED, and what the election could

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<v Speaker 2>mean for America's fiscal situation. Let's listen.

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<v Speaker 4>In you think about the US economy, you have great

0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:22.679
<v Speaker 4>insight on what's going on. If you look at that

0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:26.199
<v Speaker 4>consumer spending this year, the month of October so far

0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.440
<v Speaker 4>versus last year, or third quarter versus last year's third quarter,

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<v Speaker 4>it's up in a four to five percent range, which

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<v Speaker 4>is consistent with a low inflation, low growth economy. That's

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<v Speaker 4>across about a trillion and a quarter dollars to twenty

0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:40.839
<v Speaker 4>and a half dollars spent in a quarter, so it's

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 4>a big sample and the people moving around they spend

0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.319
<v Speaker 4>it each quarter on all different things, but generally growing

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.680
<v Speaker 4>consistent where we were pre pandemic, when you had fed

0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:50.559
<v Speaker 4>funds rate at the two percent level, two and a

0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 4>half percent level, you had inflation and control, and you

0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.320
<v Speaker 4>had growth in the two percent level. So that gives

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<v Speaker 4>us confidence that our experts to do all analysis are

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<v Speaker 4>backed up by the data we see our client, and

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<v Speaker 4>that's what we see for the consumer.

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<v Speaker 13>Is there of a degree of bifurcation the demographically.

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<v Speaker 4>It's less about bifurcation because I'd assume that the sort

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<v Speaker 4>of too it's look inflation hits people in the lower

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.680
<v Speaker 4>brackets more than it does others. Because but the good

0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.320
<v Speaker 4>news is gas prices come down, food prices are tipped

0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:22.320
<v Speaker 4>over inflations, and controls down in the three percent range

0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 4>as opposed it was running pretty hot, and so that helps.

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<v Speaker 4>But if you have auto debt, that debt and you

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:30.280
<v Speaker 4>want to get a new car, that debt is higher.

0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.319
<v Speaker 4>If you have mortgage debt and you already had a

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:34.720
<v Speaker 4>mortgage loan, it's very low. And so it really depends

0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.000
<v Speaker 4>on the consumer and really where they are. But the

0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.840
<v Speaker 4>average American consumer has more money than they did before

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 4>the pandemic, is in better credit quality before the pandemic,

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.240
<v Speaker 4>still has the money and accounts from some of this

0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:48.400
<v Speaker 4>stimulus in the pandemic and is spending money. And that's

0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:50.240
<v Speaker 4>all good stuff for the US economy because we're such

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 4>a consumer. That's the unique thing about it's a consumer

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 4>driven economy. It's a consumer lot economy.

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<v Speaker 13>Are you thinking about making allocations or allowances with stress

0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:57.680
<v Speaker 13>at this point?

0:13:57.880 --> 0:13:59.960
<v Speaker 4>We always do that. So every quarter we run stressed

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 4>has thousands of them. Every day we run them into

0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 4>market's business stuff. We always look at it and so

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.720
<v Speaker 4>what's the case if it turns out the wrong way.

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.320
<v Speaker 4>So even how we set our reserves. We have a

0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.200
<v Speaker 4>modeled series of cases we put in, so it's not

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.440
<v Speaker 4>all base case based cases about half and the rest

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:17.320
<v Speaker 4>are stress cases and the atom all together. We're actually

0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.640
<v Speaker 4>set our reserves as if unemployment was going to be

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 4>a five percent at the end of next year, not

0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:23.720
<v Speaker 4>what the market predicts at four point three. So there's

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.040
<v Speaker 4>a conservatism built in to that, and then we look

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 4>beyond that.

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 13>Those those are some potential complications for the FED depending

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 13>on what happens in just under two weeks time. Right

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 13>does the fiscal scenario, particularly under another Trump administration, but

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 13>also certainly there are risks when it comes to the

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 13>Harris camp as well. Is that something that you're thinking about.

0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 4>I would separate a very near term question of the

0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:46.560
<v Speaker 4>FED getting the trajectory. Our experts have them cutting again

0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 4>a couple more times this year, one hundred basis points

0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 4>this year, and another one hundred basis points more evenly

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.280
<v Speaker 4>spread a quarter each quarter next year. It gets to

0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 4>three to three point twenty five as a terminal rate,

0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 4>and an inflation comes down to the two two point

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 4>three percent is a move in the twenty five and

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 4>the twenty six, and so that is a well engineered

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 4>fed change, and so the dangers that data or they

0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 4>go too fast or too slow, and that risk is

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:13.800
<v Speaker 4>higher now than it was six months ago. And so

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:16.560
<v Speaker 4>as they move, everybody's going to watch them. And you

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:18.240
<v Speaker 4>see the self in territories one day and you see

0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:21.040
<v Speaker 4>the rally the other day. Everybody's going to watch all that.

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 4>That is completely different from and I don't think that

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 4>will be impacted by the elections. All the fiscal problem

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 4>in the United States, And to give you the sound bite,

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.880
<v Speaker 4>the US just finished the fiscal year. The budget deficit

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 4>for that year was equal to the entire economy of

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 4>the country of Australia one point eight trillion dollars. So

0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 4>think about the size of that, and we've got to

0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 4>get back in line. These are good times and we

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.800
<v Speaker 4>should be managing more carefully. And frankly, we need to

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 4>have the politicians too, set those budgets, fund those budgets,

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.960
<v Speaker 4>and run tax policy against those budgets to figure out

0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:53.640
<v Speaker 4>how to make this work. It's probably gonna be raising

0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 4>revenue and cutting expense or some combination. It's not a

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 4>new problem. That's one we got to start to wrestle with.

0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:00.640
<v Speaker 4>Not that it's critical tomorrow morning, that it'll be critical

0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:01.440
<v Speaker 4>over the next few years.

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:03.000
<v Speaker 13>But given that risk, do you think the FED went

0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:03.840
<v Speaker 13>too big too soon.

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 4>No, they were late to the game and they admit that.

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 4>So it's nothing that we're saying. It's they were late

0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:11.840
<v Speaker 4>and they had to move fast because inflation got ahead

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:13.440
<v Speaker 4>of them and they and they've done a good job

0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.560
<v Speaker 4>of bringing it back down from probably a double digit

0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 4>rate down to about three percent last quarter three and

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 4>a quarters. They're getting close to it. And it's never

0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 4>the inflation average from if one of my teammates tolling

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 4>from nineteen ninety to twenty twenty four was two and

0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 4>a half percent, the inflation average from nineteen from two

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.400
<v Speaker 4>thousand twenty two and a half percent. It's four and

0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 4>a half percent just in the last twenty twenty to

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.920
<v Speaker 4>twenty four, and so we've got to get back in line.

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 4>And so they're on that path. They were late to

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.440
<v Speaker 4>the game. They got to make sure they don't go

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 4>too hard now, and that's what they are all trying

0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:46.560
<v Speaker 4>to figure out watching the data. But whether it's it's

0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 4>a terminal rate that's the key, and that we think

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:50.480
<v Speaker 4>is around three percent, that's a whole different indust rate

0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.160
<v Speaker 4>environment in the US and other markets than it's been

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 4>in the last fifteen years or so.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.240
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0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.520
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for

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<v Speaker 2>here on Bloomberg.

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:47.000
<v Speaker 3>Dabray