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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from

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Speaker 1: my remote Tommy john Home studio. Listeners may know last

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Speaker 1: night went to Bulls Knicks at MSG and exciting Bulls

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Speaker 1: last second win. They covered the eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: The Milman Boys went home happy. I'm joined as always

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Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion Mike and Padre might

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Speaker 1: beff professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in Chad.

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Speaker 2: What a great day today, a good football day. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna be forty degrees tonight in Philly for this playoff

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Speaker 2: matchup between the Commanders. I'm so jealous, as you.

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Speaker 1: Know, yes, because I am on night two of the

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Speaker 1: Milman Sportacular. Last night me and my son both Knicks

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Speaker 1: at MSG. Tonight we're going down to Philly. We'll go

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Speaker 1: to dinner with my older son at Drexel and then

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Speaker 1: we will go to Eagles Commanders. I'm a little worried.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be colder than I thought. I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: I brought the right coat. I'm gonna have to rally.

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Speaker 1: I wear my Drexel hoodie.

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Speaker 2: But dude, I can warm you up. I got I'm

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Speaker 2: a big coming for the tailgate brother. I'm thinking about it.

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Speaker 2: I'm tempted.

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Speaker 1: Dude. If you do, we can discuss offline. Yeah, hey,

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Speaker 1: listen that it was a very interesting story. I want

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Speaker 1: to talk about something that I read in the Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal yesterday. Yeah, because we've talked about like the

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Speaker 1: challenges that everybody has faced as better as this year,

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Speaker 1: the public and the favorites have been winning so much so.

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Speaker 1: This week and the last week is earnings weeks for

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Speaker 1: a lot of publicly traded companies, where they are reporting

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Speaker 1: how they've done in the previous quarter, in this case,

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Speaker 1: usually the third quarter. That includes the sports betting operators

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Speaker 1: and two of the largest in the United States. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to name them, but everyone knows who they are.

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Speaker 1: They both reported in their most recent earnings calls over

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Speaker 1: the past two weeks they've had to reduce their revenue

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Speaker 1: expectations for the rest of twenty twenty four because of

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Speaker 1: what one of them called euphemistically customer friendly outcomes, which

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Speaker 1: is a very nice way of saying the public has

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Speaker 1: been crushing it this year because favorites have been covering

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Speaker 1: at an extraordinary clips, so much that has cost operators

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Speaker 1: literally hundreds of millions of dollars. One of them reported

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Speaker 1: revenue would be reduced by about two hundred and fifty million,

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Speaker 1: the other by about fifty million. To put a finer

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Speaker 1: point on it, during the week of Halloween, the industry's

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Speaker 1: hold rate, which is essentially what they earn after payouts,

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Speaker 1: was just two percent, normally closer to ten percent. If

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Speaker 1: that gives you a real, real fine point on how

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Speaker 1: much the public has been winning this year. We've talked

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Speaker 1: about it a lot. It doesn't always get discussed like

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Speaker 1: in our business. A lot of professional betters like to

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Speaker 1: be on the side of these books, right the books

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Speaker 1: and the betters like to root for underdogs. They like

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Speaker 1: to bet underdogs. The books will make their money when

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Speaker 1: underdogs win. Pros historically are playing dogs. Books historically like

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Speaker 1: it when favorites loose. So all of that has made

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Speaker 1: for a fascinating year. Some of the publicly traded operators

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Speaker 1: laid bare with earnings this week. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you have thoughts on that. As someone who is a

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Speaker 1: professional better I know. Look, we've had tremendous success and

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Speaker 1: my philosophy, I know this has always been identify where

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Speaker 1: I think the public markets are going to be overinflated,

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Speaker 1: and then play the other side, and then look for

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Speaker 1: the opportunities to play underdogs. Obviously there's been much more

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Speaker 1: challenging this year. What are your thoughts on all this?

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Speaker 2: What I love about this story is it's these two

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Speaker 2: books kind of thought that they reinvented the wheel and

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Speaker 2: they banned professional betters quick There are some of the

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Speaker 2: quickest bands I've ever seen through these books we're talking about.

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Speaker 2: Their number wouldn't be as negative as it is if

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Speaker 2: they would take professional money. So these guys are really

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Speaker 2: stuck in their ways right now and we all know that.

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Speaker 2: So maybe this won't help change it right now, but

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Speaker 2: I do think down the road they'll learn from these lessons.

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Speaker 2: That was my biggest takeaway from it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, look, you're totally right. Getting banned is a massive

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Speaker 1: issue for professional betters, and it's a constant conversation and

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Speaker 1: topic for people who are in the community. Nate Silver

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Speaker 1: actually wrote a book this summer that came out this

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Speaker 1: summer called on the Edge, and he has a chat

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Speaker 1: it's all about sort of the art of risking everything.

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Speaker 1: It's a phenomenal book. I freaking loved it, and sports

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Speaker 1: betting is a very small part of it. But he

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Speaker 1: did write sensively about how quickly operators ban anyone they

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Speaker 1: think is an advantage player that they quickly identify as

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Speaker 1: everybody knows. I wrote a best selling book called The

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Speaker 1: Odds about the life of professional betters in Vegas. Chad

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Speaker 1: Milman wrote a book and the inner play they have

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Speaker 1: with operators and how that is a symbiotic relationship and

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Speaker 1: what the betters get out of it in terms of

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Speaker 1: first crack at lines and what the operators get out

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Speaker 1: of it. Back then, they weren't operators, they were just

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Speaker 1: book makers. By letting people pound the lines into shape,

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Speaker 1: and the risk that everyone is willing to take, and

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Speaker 1: they're communicating with each other, they're leaning on each other,

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Speaker 1: they're learning from each other. That sort of relationship I

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Speaker 1: think is diminished. But listen, let's get to some freaking

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Speaker 1: games today. As our NFL Week eleven Best Bets episode,

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Speaker 1: Colin Coward likes to say there's a sea of money

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Speaker 1: player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia eighteen and oh

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Speaker 1: they're in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

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Speaker 1: restriction is a plaque. All right, it's Thursday. This is

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Speaker 1: when we like to hear how the wise guys are

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Speaker 1: responding to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines. The pros

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Speaker 1: feel compelled to weigh in on what we're saying. Simon,

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Speaker 1: let's do shop call.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,

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Speaker 2: maybe want to do in Yeah, let's start with the

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Speaker 2: lines that we disagree on. So off the top, the

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Speaker 2: professionals like the Bears. I like Green Bay. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you want to dive into that

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Speaker 2: game more.

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Speaker 1: But I just don't know for sure.

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Speaker 2: I don't agree what they're saying about this Bears team.

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Speaker 2: I think they're kind of missing it here. And all

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Speaker 2: the trends as well point to Green Bay and taking

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Speaker 2: them in this spot. So interesting. They love that one Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: That's another number that you know I talked about. Gave

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Speaker 2: it out of three to two and a half sharpest

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Speaker 2: number of the week. Apparently that's all the way down

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Speaker 2: to them minus one now for Cleveland, so clearly they

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Speaker 2: love it. I've missed this one. I was gonna end

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Speaker 2: up being on the Saints, and now I have to

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Speaker 2: be on the Saints. Now this line's flipped. I hate

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Speaker 2: this game. I didn't want to bet it. Now I

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Speaker 2: have to bet it, unfortunately. But the pros they love

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Speaker 2: that Cleveland side, which is really interested to me New

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Speaker 2: England Patriots. I'm on the other side. I like the Rams.

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Speaker 2: I know we're gonna talk about this one. I get

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Speaker 2: their viewpoint of it. They like this Patriots defense. You

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Speaker 2: have them at home against outdoor Stafford. I get their

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Speaker 2: reasoning behind it. So I'm looking forward to us breaking

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Speaker 2: down that one even more. And for the last one,

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Speaker 2: we knew this was coming. Buffalo Bills. The professionals love

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Speaker 2: the Bills. They love it, they love the number. They're

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Speaker 2: just like most people think on this Chiefs team's a

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Speaker 2: little overrated. They like this spot. Josh Allen at home.

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Speaker 2: He is not scared of this Chiefs team. We've seen

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Speaker 2: in his career. It's never honestly been his fault. Eve

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Speaker 2: when you go back and watch a lot of those losses.

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Speaker 2: This is never on Josh's either. Why she has a

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Speaker 2: terrible drop, His defense can't stop anything. It's never really

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Speaker 2: been his fault. So I get where they're coming from

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Speaker 2: this one. I'm excited to break this down even more.

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Speaker 2: But nothing changed for me on this one. I still

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Speaker 2: love the Chiefs and we've seen that number go down

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Speaker 2: now from two and a half to two of most books,

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Speaker 2: so it seems like some professional money has been coming

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Speaker 2: in on this Chiefs now that have kind of reached

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Speaker 2: its peak value at two and a half. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: just off the top, those are the ones we disagreed on.

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Speaker 2: The games we like the same side. Chad Pittsburgh no

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Speaker 2: brainer game we're gonna talk about more. Tennessee another game

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about more, and then Detroit, which we talked

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday. I know Chad didn't do it because he's

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Speaker 2: a good guy, but I my personal contests far ours

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Speaker 2: that I do. I locked in the twelve and a

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Speaker 2: half on Detroit because I knew it was going up.

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Speaker 2: Now it's up to thirteen and a half fourteen at

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Speaker 2: most books. So there's a couple games I'm happy we're

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Speaker 2: gonna be diving into.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a fascinating board. I can't I do want

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Speaker 1: to talk about that Cleveland game. I bet the Browns

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Speaker 1: at one and a half. I just couldn't couldn't have

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Speaker 1: resist it. Yeah, it just didn't make any sense me.

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Speaker 1: One final order of business. I mentioned this on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: We are doing another Favorites live event. This is a

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Speaker 1: watch party. We're still nailing down some of the final

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Speaker 1: details that will be an RSVP page available, but what

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Speaker 1: you need to know right now, we're doing it in Philly,

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Speaker 1: the fighting city of Philadelphia. It's a home game for

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Speaker 1: my bff, Simon Hunter. He's gonna get all of his

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Speaker 1: compadres from Philly South Jersey to come out, but anybody

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Speaker 1: is welcome to come. It's gonna be Thursday, December twelfth,

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Speaker 1: great spot called the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: There's gonna be drinks, live Q and A with me

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Speaker 1: and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna be there. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be in advance of the Thursday night football game for

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Speaker 1: the Rams and the Niners. We're gonna have sort of

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Speaker 1: a happy hour pregame, drinks and Q and A with

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Speaker 1: me and Simon and Matt, and then we're all gonna

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Speaker 1: hang out. We're gonna watch that Rams forty nine Ers

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Speaker 1: game in a bet. Our faces off in Philly where

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Speaker 1: it's legal. We're going to enjoy and we're all going

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Speaker 1: to have a blast. Mark your calendars, start making plans.

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Speaker 1: We'll let you know when to and where to RSVP.

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Speaker 1: All right, Baltimore Pittsburgh. First game on the board, Steelers

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Speaker 1: plus three. This was our Simon Sas Simon, I think

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Speaker 1: there are real statistical matchup reasons for doing this. I

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Speaker 1: think the Steelers offensive strength, especially running the ball, they

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Speaker 1: are an advantage. I mean, the Steelers' offensive strengths throwing

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Speaker 1: the ball recently are an advantage against the Ravens defensive

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Speaker 1: weaknesses and vice versa. By the way, like the Raven's

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Speaker 1: strength running the ball is an advantage against the Steelers defense.

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Speaker 1: We're playing the percentages. We're playing the long term ROI.

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Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

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Speaker 2: can make what do you guys quit today?

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Speaker 1: When these teams are grossly uneven, it favors the underdog.

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Speaker 1: I will go through every single stat the litany of facts,

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Speaker 1: but I want to throw it to you first.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the biggest one to me, is definitely gonna be

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Speaker 2: the fact that I don't think the books have accounted

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Speaker 2: enough for Cayle Hamilton being out of this game. So

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Speaker 2: we have a defense that's already suffering. Now you have

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Speaker 2: arguably the best safety in all football, a guy who

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Speaker 2: can play every spot in the field, a guy who

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Speaker 2: he just can tell by the way the teams line

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Speaker 2: up when he's gonna blitz or when he's gonna back

230
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Speaker 2: on the coverage like he was incredible and you travel

231
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Speaker 2: over the field. I just knew it was gonna come

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Speaker 2: down as soon as I saw it that it was

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Speaker 2: three and a half. It was just like, Okay, this

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Speaker 2: will come down to three. And the books were gonna

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Speaker 2: get a ton of public money and they haven't budged sht.

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Speaker 2: Like I talked to a lot of book makers. It's

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Speaker 2: all Ravend's money right now for the most part. I

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Speaker 2: mean a lot of people have here taking the Steelers

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Speaker 2: team in the money line, but we've seen it early

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Speaker 2: here it's just been Raymonds money. So we obviously know

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Speaker 2: the trends back it up here, but I just think

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Speaker 2: the matchup on the field does as well. Somebody got

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Speaker 2: to be all in for everybody to be all in.

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Speaker 2: I've seen this team when the Ravens struggle with the

245
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Speaker 2: deep ball. That's all Pittsburgh wants to do. They want

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Speaker 2: to attack you downfield, they like they love anything above

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Speaker 2: twenty yards. They want to attack you. And it all

248
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Speaker 2: starts with the run game. So Arthur Smith knows that

249
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Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, we'll run it down their throat. Eventually

250
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Speaker 2: the linebackers will step up, they'll suck in, we'll get

251
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Speaker 2: one on ones, especially across the middle, and that's what

252
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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson has been great this season. So home dog Tomlin.

253
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Speaker 2: We are already gonna love it. The fact that we're

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Speaker 2: getting such a good number. It's still a three to me,

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Speaker 2: it just makes it a no brainer. It's just a

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Speaker 2: spot we can't avoid. We love these type of numbers

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Speaker 2: in this type of spot.

258
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's every reality says, take the Steelers here. I

259
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Speaker 1: always get nervous with this because how does this trend

260
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Speaker 1: continue to hold. We've got a couple spots here where

261
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Speaker 1: we are today, where we're going to just be leaning

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Speaker 1: into what has historically happened, not overthinking, not letting our

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Speaker 1: eyes deceive us, not trying to be smart, not saying

264
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Speaker 1: this is going to be the time where it all

265
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Speaker 1: falls apart. Last twenty years, the underdog in this series

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Speaker 1: seventy four percent against the spread in the regular season

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Speaker 1: when the line is three or more underdog twenty two

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Speaker 1: four and three, underdog fifteen two and one against the

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Speaker 1: spread since two thousand fifteen in the regular season underdog

270
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Speaker 1: twenty three, six and three against the spread. When Mike

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Speaker 1: Tomlin faces John Harbaugh Mike Tomlin twenty and fifteen straight up,

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Speaker 1: eighteen teen, fourteen three against the spread versus John Harbaugh.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that

274
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Speaker 2: all the time, like that's what the hell we pay

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Speaker 2: to do.

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Speaker 1: So everything says Steelers, Steelers, Steelers. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: if it was the other way, it would be Ravens Ravens.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. That that has to do with Lamar two as

279
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Speaker 2: a dog, right, Lamar is a Dog's the biggest one

280
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Speaker 2: with that what you're talking about. So yeah, So we

281
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Speaker 2: love both sides as dollars.

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Speaker 1: We love both. We just love the dogs in this

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Speaker 1: spot underdogs in the AFC North Divisional games. Thank you

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Speaker 1: Evan Neighbors. By the way, for all these you got

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Speaker 1: to check out his story that comes out on Wednesdays

286
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Speaker 1: where he breaks down every game with these cool stats.

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Speaker 1: Underdogs forty seven to thirty one against spread sixty percent

288
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Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. So book it, Steelers. We might get burned,

289
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Speaker 1: obviously we think we could get burned here.

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Speaker 2: But it's not one hundred percent success rate.

291
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Speaker 1: Nothing is one hundred percent success rate. It's positive. Ev like,

292
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Speaker 1: this is what we think is going to happen. And

293
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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna overthink it on this, Like, I'm not

294
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Speaker 1: gonna get crazy. We're just gonna play what we have

295
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Speaker 1: always played. If this was Duck Hodges and the Steelers

296
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Speaker 1: were plus three, I don't even think we'd be having

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Speaker 1: a conversation. We'd one hundred percent be betting the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: I think we'd be more more confident if the Steelers

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Speaker 1: were actually.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also in our contest is still three

301
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Speaker 2: and a half. So it's just like, not only you're

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Speaker 2: getting great value, you're getting a great number as well.

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Speaker 1: Done Minnesota Tennessee. Tennessee's a six point dog here. Look

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Speaker 1: the number says play the home dog. It's a defense

305
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Speaker 1: whose strengths matchup to a you know, turning into a

306
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Speaker 1: pumpkin quarterback. The trend say fade the road favorite with

307
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Speaker 1: a win percentage of seventy five or more, it's only

308
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Speaker 1: forty three percent against spread. The reality Will Levis versus

309
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Speaker 1: a Brian Flores defense. And if you want to talk

310
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Speaker 1: about the highest rankings for any defense in pressure and

311
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Speaker 1: blitz and blitz rate and total pressure is raw and

312
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Speaker 1: total blitz is raw, it's going to be Brian Flores.

313
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Speaker 1: If you want to talk about the quarterback who struggles

314
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Speaker 1: the most in the NFL, in that scenario, it's Will Lewis.

315
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Speaker 1: So I know that, like we want to do the

316
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Speaker 1: ugly thing here, I kind of went no part of

317
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Speaker 1: this game.

318
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also I mean, my main thing is

319
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Speaker 2: it's just yeah, Will loves and might might struggle and

320
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Speaker 2: be bad in this game. But Sam could be said

321
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Speaker 2: for Sam Darnel. And now we do have date on

322
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Speaker 2: him where you know, he's been a favorite ten times

323
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Speaker 2: of three points or more in his career. He's three

324
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Speaker 2: and seven against the spreading those games, so we've seen

325
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Speaker 2: him struggle as big favorites. Now, I told you the

326
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Speaker 2: negative to me is that the numbers come down. If

327
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Speaker 2: I want to put it in. If it's six and

328
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Speaker 2: a half, But I told you I'm not here to

329
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Speaker 2: force us in to take in this at six and

330
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Speaker 2: five and a half. It's like, I want a good

331
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Speaker 2: number run back in such a terrible quarterback and will

332
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Speaker 2: love us. But you're right, like, don't need to force

333
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 2: us one in. But it's a spot I have to bet,

334
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,119
Speaker 2: and it's just it's it's buy and low on this

335
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 2: Tennessee team. Even last week, like in my money line

336
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 2: around Robin one on the legs was the Patriots paired

337
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,600
Speaker 2: with the Jaguars, and it's like I knew at the time,

338
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 2: everyone was like, there's no way the Jaguars going to

339
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 2: beat that team, but you saw how it could happen. Right,

340
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 2: if you have a quarterback that's just playing terrible like

341
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 2: Sam Dona has been playing, teams are going to stay

342
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Speaker 2: in these games. So I'm with you. This is an

343
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 2: ugly one that I'm happy to avoid. But at six

344
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 2: and a half, if it is that jet in or contest,

345
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Speaker 2: I might force you to take it.

346
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 1: Well, I think we're going to have five pretty good options,

347
00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,240
Speaker 1: and I do think we're gonna have to race onto

348
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Speaker 1: the site after this show because there's going to be

349
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 1: a game that we want to get in before they

350
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Speaker 1: become the favorite, and that is the Cleveland Browns, who

351
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,920
Speaker 1: at bet three six 's five are still one point

352
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 1: underdogs at the New Orleans Saints. We talked about it

353
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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I can't get out of my head, like

354
00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 1: I don't know why the Saints are still favored here.

355
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 1: It might not last much longer. Like there's a couple

356
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 1: spots where the Saints are a half point favorite now

357
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 1: opened it what two and a half on Sunday when

358
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: we first identified it? Are only mitigating factor here? Is

359
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 1: jamis other than that? Like? How are we not betting

360
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 1: the better defense, the healthier team off of bye with

361
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 1: a superior coach against a team that basically just won

362
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 1: the game that had to win and might not win

363
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 1: again all year and has zero receivers and a quarterback

364
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 1: who under pressure is a much different quarterback than he

365
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 1: is when he is not under pressure, which is why

366
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 1: we liked him last week. You got to be on

367
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 1: the Browns here, assignment be on the Browns with me.

368
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,239
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess I'm fine with you putting them in,

369
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,159
Speaker 2: but I have true I told you I want to

370
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 2: avoid this game because I don't really have a good

371
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 2: read on it. I just I just don't trust either

372
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 2: of these quarterbacks right now. And I'm with you. I'm

373
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 2: trying to find a reason to take this Cleveland team.

374
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 2: You're right, maybe it's the number and that's where the

375
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 2: value is. But for me, I just there's other games

376
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 2: I'd rather bet on. So this could be your game

377
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 2: if you want to stand behind it, you're confident in it.

378
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 2: I believe in you. You can put this one in.

379
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 2: But as you said your Thursday, I just can't get there.

380
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 1: Why is it just because of Jamis?

381
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just the Browns in general. They're just they're

382
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 2: they're terrible this year and we've seen them struggle when

383
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: they get behind, and you know it's it is. It's

384
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: a huge game for Jamis, Like this is him coming

385
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 2: back to a team that let him go, and you

386
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 2: know he's in his feelings. Jamis is a crazy person

387
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 2: in his own heads. A lot of people forget. You

388
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,199
Speaker 2: can go out, you can see practice, you can nicknack this,

389
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 2: that Paddy Way give with all the bone. That's just

390
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 2: my fear is he's just gonna be trying to do

391
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 2: too much. That's what you don't want if I knew

392
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 2: that this is gonna be a heavy Nick Chubb type

393
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 2: of game, and I would feel really confident, like what

394
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 2: you're talking about, this is a nice spot to fade.

395
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,399
Speaker 2: This Saint's team off will win. I win that. Me

396
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 2: and you both agree they got pretty lucky to get

397
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 2: So I agree with your view of it that the

398
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 2: numbers probably right of Cleveland. I'm just not confident in

399
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 2: this Cleveland side.

400
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: Stefanski knows he's got a healthy offensive line, that he

401
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 1: can keep the clock running, that he's got a defense

402
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: that can be in Derek Carr's face, that the Saints

403
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 1: probably should have lost that game last week. They got

404
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 1: lucky winning it, Like I can believe all this.

405
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:12,959
Speaker 2: All right, put it, We'll put it in.

406
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 1: Then I want to put it in. I want to

407
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 1: put it in. I want to own it. I'll own it.

408
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 1: But Simon, it is not our big balls. Better the

409
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 1: Week Care presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,

410
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: Tommy John has the supports. Great games start with great underwear.

411
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest. I believe we won our

412
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: big balls last week. It was the Saints, if I'm

413
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 1: not mistaken. So this week we're doing something we have

414
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 1: never done in the history of our show. How long

415
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 1: have you and I been together? What is it? There's

416
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 1: a sixth season. In six seasons, we have never gone

417
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 1: big balls on a two touchdown favorite, Yet here we are.

418
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 1: I bet the Lions at minus thirteen. It's in the app.

419
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,640
Speaker 1: I saw it moving to thirteen and a half at

420
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: a couple of Connecticut books and wanted to get the

421
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 1: thirteen where I could. It's up to fourteen at a

422
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 1: lot of places, so that's the consensus. I feel like

423
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: we're entering the law of big numbers territory. It becomes

424
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: impossible for teams and quarterbacks to continue to outperform their

425
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 1: previous success and the market. It's why Patrick mahomes Ats

426
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 1: record is a favorite of more than three is so low,

427
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: Like the public expectations are so high, it's just not

428
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: possible to consistently beat them. And I feel like we're

429
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: reaching that point with the Lions. But I don't care,

430
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: Like there's no reason not to bet them here.

431
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've seen the trends as well, point to that

432
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 2: these big favorites have done well these last couple of years,

433
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: Like that's it's been profitable to take these favorites of

434
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 2: ten points or more, and Jared got specifically. You know,

435
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 2: he's made nine starts eleven and two or nine and

436
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 2: two straight up, and those starts as a big favorite

437
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 2: seven and four against the spread as a big favorite

438
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 2: of ten points or more. So I'm trying not to

439
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 2: let it scare us off. The biggest thing to me

440
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 2: is just the fact that they didn't cover last week, Chad,

441
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 2: like we've talked about this. I don't know if we

442
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 2: talked about this year, because they've been a covering machine.

443
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 2: But basically me and Chad blindly bet the Lions after

444
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 2: they don't cover, and people always ask us why, and

445
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 2: it's pretty simply point to a trend of Lions fail

446
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 2: to cover their previous game Golf fourteen and four against

447
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: the spread with Detroit, including nine and two at home

448
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 2: against the spread. So it's just really a spot like

449
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: we already liked the number. We like that it's Mac

450
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,719
Speaker 2: Jones going against his defense, and it feels like that

451
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 2: was the Jaguars everything game last week outdoors in the muck,

452
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 2: and don't I just lay down at this point? Isn't

453
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 2: this a team that's just going to roll over and die,

454
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 2: especially if the Lions just come out and they're humming.

455
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 2: You know. That was the throwaway game last week. I

456
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 2: coughed the guy threw what was with five interceptions? You

457
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: expect him to have a huge bounce back spot and

458
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 2: this offense to have a bounce back spot, especially against

459
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,239
Speaker 2: this Jaguars team. So shop around. There's I mean, I'm

460
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 2: seeing a thirteen still out there, so you can still

461
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: get a good number on this. For this show, though,

462
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: we'll take it up fourteen because that's what it's at

463
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: on bet three six five, Hello Detroit. Double digit's favorites

464
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: this year four and oh against the spread. I want

465
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: to just give that style because that's just it just

466
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: shows how things have changed. Like I used to be,

467
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: I really love taking double digit favorites, and this year

468
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 2: is kind of showing you. It's like it's moved the

469
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 2: other way where if the books are really pushing it

470
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: above ten, I mean, they really need the dog to

471
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 2: come through and that's just not happened them this season.

472
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,239
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's crazy, the fact that there're four

473
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 2: and oh double digit favorites this.

474
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: Year, and it's crazy. That is our big balls better

475
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 1: of the Week, and we're going to be putting the

476
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions in the contest that way. As I said,

477
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: you can see in the app, I've already taken the Lions.

478
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 1: Our sponsor, Tommy John, makes the most comfortable underwear I've

479
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:21,440
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480
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: you can bet better, which means taking the Lions. As

481
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 1: double digit favorites. If you love Simon and if you

482
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,879
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483
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484
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485
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486
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 1: We talked about Green Bay in Chicago. Chicago is now

487
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 1: down to five and a half and like this was

488
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: a placeholder game for us, we could not come to

489
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: a conclusion. You've started the lean in the Packers direction,

490
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 1: to be honest, so do I. I think we wanted

491
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: to see a little bit about how the market moved

492
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 1: I the past two decades. I used this stat last

493
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: week for the Niners against the Bucks, and we were

494
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 1: on the Niners. It didn't work out, but they dominated

495
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: it and should have won that game. Going away Over

496
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: the past two decades, road faves off of a buy

497
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: cover at a sixty percent clip, the number is seventy

498
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: percent when the spread is five and a half or higher.

499
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: Why do you think the wise guys are on the Bears, Simon?

500
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: Why do you want to be on the packers?

501
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 2: Because they're like me and they're old school. It's a

502
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 2: divisional home dog that's getting less than ten percent of

503
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: the bets, less than ten percent of the tickets. It's

504
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 2: this is what professionals do, and this is why again,

505
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: book makers need people like us because we bet the

506
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 2: other side and no one's betting, so they're not going

507
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,479
Speaker 2: to catch me on this one. Though, Like I, I

508
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: was a sucker. I think it was five six years

509
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 2: ago where I was. I thought Roger was kind of

510
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 2: heading down the other side of his career. I know

511
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 2: it sounds stupid now, but this is when he was

512
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 2: still with McCarthy a little. Did I know he was

513
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: about to win two MVPs after that, But I was

514
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 2: always like, Okay, they'll finally catch this Green Bay team.

515
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: Especially I got sucked in when they got you guys

516
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,400
Speaker 2: had Mitch Tubisky. It doesn't matter if your team's good

517
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 2: if Green Bay is on the other side, they just

518
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: always beat you guys. It's the most bizarre thing right now.

519
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: You're the relationship between green Bay like that, the Brett

520
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 2: Favre era they dominated, Aaron Rodgers era they dominated, and

521
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: then Jordan Love, who's not even been that good as

522
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: a favor for some reason, though he plays really well

523
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: against this this Bears team. So five and a half now, Chad,

524
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: I'll join the public. I'll take the number. But I'm

525
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 2: happy that we don't have to make this one over

526
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 2: five because I'm just not super confident in betting in

527
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: Jordan Love is a big favorite.

528
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 1: No, I'm not either. I am more confident in betting

529
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 1: Matt laflor So even though it's not, it's not gonna

530
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: end up being our contest. Play Matt Lafleur on extended

531
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 1: preps seven and three against the spread when favored by

532
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: four points or more. That's the fourth best mark amongst

533
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: the ninety nine head coaches over the past twenty years.

534
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 1: Rams minus four and a half at New England another one.

535
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 1: I think you and I have sort of come to

536
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 1: an agreement here independently. We both kind of like the Rams,

537
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: and we know that the wise guys aren't the Patriots here,

538
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: but off of home loss as a favorite last week,

539
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: they're now road favorites field goal or more. Those teams

540
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent against spreads in two thousand and three,

541
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: twenty nine to fifteen to two since twenty twenty. I

542
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: don't know McVeigh in this spot. He's great on short rest.

543
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: Like with Stafford as a QB, he's great on short rest.

544
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised that the wise guy love for the

545
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: Patriots in this spot. It feels like you'd want to

546
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: sell the Patriots right now and buy the Rams because

547
00:28:56,320 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: this was another one the Rams kind of dominated offense.

548
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it feels like we're getting a great number

549
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 2: like this is it's down to four and a half,

550
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: like you just said, on this Rams team, that to

551
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: me is there's there's too much line movement right now

552
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 2: and to pass on this value. This should be at six.

553
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 2: Like you said, this Rams team coming off just their

554
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 2: worst offensive output this season, and there's no excuse, right,

555
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 2: they had all their guys back, they have their offensive

556
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: lineback at pook in the lineup bit a Cooper Cup,

557
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: no excuse. That was just a totally fall on their

558
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 2: face terrible game by them. How do we not been

559
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 2: on the bounce back the veteran quarterback with a great

560
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: head coach. This is the spot you dominate, right going

561
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: up against the rookie head coach and the rookie quarterback

562
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: after they just had a huge road win like this,

563
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: This Patrios team's gonna be feeling themselves all week, and

564
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 2: then on the flip side, this other team is going

565
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,959
Speaker 2: to be raging. So the Rams have to roll here

566
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 2: if they If they don't Chad, I don't know what

567
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: kind of purgatory will put them into. But it's like,

568
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 2: this is clearly not a playoff team if they don't

569
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 2: come out and dominate this game. This is a team.

570
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 2: If this is a game, if you are a legit

571
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 2: playoff team who's gonna make a wild card run, you

572
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 2: have to win this game and you have to kind

573
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: of put it away by I think seven points are

574
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: more so I love this number and I'm happy you're

575
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 2: on the same side with me.

576
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, this feels like a no brainer for

577
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: the contest. The only question is we had the Rams

578
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 1: as a foxhole last week. Do we want to go

579
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 1: Rams foxhole again? Because we are clearly on the opposite

580
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: side of the professionals.

581
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: I love it.

582
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 1: Let's do it. Let's put the Rams in the foxhole.

583
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

584
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

585
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

586
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: I can't think of a better tandem to be in

587
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: with than Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. We love betting

588
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: on Matthew Stafford. I'm not afraid of it. We're going

589
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: even the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus four

590
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: and a half against the New England Patriots. Another game.

591
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 1: I love this one too, and you and I have

592
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: not talked about it enough. Colts plus four at the

593
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 1: New York Jets went from four to three and a

594
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: half since we last met. Also, since we last met,

595
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson back in the starting lineup. Soon after that,

596
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: the line moved back to Colts plus four. Are you

597
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: as in love with the Colts in this game as

598
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 1: I am?

599
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: No, I'm not. No, No, you're not. I'm betting it

600
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 2: because I think it's a good number. I don't think

601
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: this Jets team should be a four point favorite against anybody,

602
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: but I don't know how, I don't know the I

603
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 2: don't know the mood of the team, Chad, like everything

604
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: outside the numbers and all the data. The human element

605
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 2: of this is what scares me because we talked about

606
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,479
Speaker 2: I don't like when teams have their owners making all

607
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 2: the decisions. And I said it from the get go.

608
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 2: There was something funky about the whole way they made

609
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 2: Flaco the quarterback. The team reacted to it negatively. Flacco

610
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 2: turned back into a pumpkin. He didn't handle it well either.

611
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 2: And now it's all back on to Anthony Richardsons shoulders.

612
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 2: And he's what twenty two to twenty three years old,

613
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: and the guy's made nine starts. It's just, oh man,

614
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: it's a brutal they're putting this kid in like this

615
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: is just a year. You should have just let him

616
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 2: play it out. This was his rookie season. They just

617
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: I hate that the NFL moves so quick they judge

618
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 2: these kids because it's what because he was two for

619
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: fifteen passing in that first half, That's why they did it.

620
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: It's like we knew the kids weakness is coming out.

621
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: He was terrible at throwing the ball to the guy underneath.

622
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 2: He just literally can't hit it. But he's a great

623
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 2: deep ball thrower, so it's like they know what they

624
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 2: need to work on. It's all about how you get

625
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: taxed these next couple of years. But his mental might

626
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 2: be shot now. We don't know what he's This kid's

627
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 2: gone through these last couple of weeks. So that's why

628
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 2: it's like I'll bet it. It's the same thing like

629
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: I'd rather do Cleveland than take this number with you, Chad,

630
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: It's like this one, we're strictly betting the number. At

631
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: least Cleveland. I can see them winning. Like I think

632
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: they are the better team than the Saints, where the

633
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: Jets are the better team, They're just they're just another

634
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 2: team that's just lost overall. Like you said, they don't

635
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: have a head coach. That's a huge advantage to that

636
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 2: Colts team. So that's another reason why I'm playing that

637
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: plus four numbers. So it's just a number that I'm

638
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 2: not confident. There's other games I'd rather bet, but Anthewy interesson.

639
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: We'll see how he can handle adversary. Look, this is

640
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 2: a huge game where if they win this, this could

641
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: change their whole season. If they lose it, we could

642
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: easily just see this keep getting worse and worse for

643
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: this Colts team, because this Jets team, we said it

644
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: last week, they look like they quit. So we'll see

645
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 2: which one of these teams is ready for vacation, which

646
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 2: team is actually not given up yet on their season.

647
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: Here's why I like this, and this is part of betting,

648
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: and it's something that every regular better has to manage,

649
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: which is their own personal biases and the things that

650
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: matter the most of them when they're breaking down these games.

651
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: And we've generally liked the Colts because we like Shane

652
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: Steichen's a play caller, at least we did last year

653
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: and still do. And we love their running game right

654
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: Their run blocking unit number one in the NFL. Their

655
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: offensive line when it comes to run blocking is elite.

656
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor is a great running back. Gain more than

657
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: one hundred yards last week against the Bills. It's why

658
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: we liked that game last week. And if not for

659
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: the Joe Flacco turning into Batter Flacco, then I still

660
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: contend we cover that game. I know it's a ludicrous

661
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: argument if if but like the Jets run defense is terrible.

662
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: We saw it last week. They can't tackle. They're afraid

663
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 1: to tackle. They don't want to put their nose in it.

664
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: If I'm Shane Steichen and I can run the ball

665
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 1: and I can dominate that way, and I get Anthony

666
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: Richardson back, then all of a sudden, I've got another

667
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 1: running threat against a defense that is chaos, and really

668
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: it doesn't have anything to hang its hat on right now.

669
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 1: So I like it actually more at four with Anthony

670
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 1: Richardson than I do with Joe Flacco. We don't have

671
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 1: to put it in, but my reverse psychology might have

672
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: worked because now I get to put Cleveland in. That's fair,

673
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 1: all right. So Atlanta at Denver, Atlanta's two and a half.

674
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that didn't come up in sharp calls because

675
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 1: I feel like the wise guys are on Denver and

676
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: you and I both like Atlanta.

677
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just a game where it's it's not

678
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: honestly as heavy as you think it would be on

679
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 2: that Denver team. For the professionals, I think they liked

680
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 2: the early number right. They grabbed it when it was

681
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 2: one one and a half. Now that's up to two

682
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 2: and a half. Either guys are avoiding or people are

683
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 2: like you and me, right, we're taking the other side

684
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 2: in this, So I don't know where you're at with Atlanta.

685
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: It's feeling like a little chalky to me that like

686
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 2: it's of course we're taking this Kirk Cousins a two

687
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: point dog to bow Nicks. I'm just worried there's something

688
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: I'm missing here because this does feel easy, Like when

689
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: we talked on Tuesday, It's like I thought this was

690
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 2: gonna be one of my bigger bets. I've kind of

691
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: pulled back from it because there's other games I like more,

692
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 2: but it's it's shocking it's still two and a half

693
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 2: on this Atlanta team. I just don't know what I'm missing.

694
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm you know what I put in the notes.

695
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 1: I really can't believe this line hasn't moved.

696
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, like what are.

697
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: And it turned me off in the same way I

698
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: think it turned you off the past forty eight hours.

699
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: And again you and I haven't talked about it. I

700
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 1: like things to be fresh for the show, but I

701
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 1: have not put much. I don't think I put any

702
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: money on the Falcons yet.

703
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: I bet it, but I'm with you, it's like I

704
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 2: bet it. I'm like, ah, should I just put that

705
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 2: much money. I just put on that like I should

706
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 2: have been patient.

707
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: Well, it's not a contest play to me, and I

708
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 1: think on Tuesday, if you had asked me on Tuesday,

709
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 1: I was probably gung ho putting in this in the contest.

710
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: And it's definitely faded out of the top six or

711
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 1: seven for me at this point. Like Kirk Cousins off

712
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 1: a loss, straight up off a loss, he's great, But

713
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: I do worry about the pressure that the Broncos can

714
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 1: get on Kirk Cousins in this game, and the lack

715
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: of pressure the Falcons and create for bo Nix, who's

716
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: just clearly getting more and more confident each and every week.

717
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: And if I'm the Broncos, I'm emboldened by what happened

718
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, Like I look at that and think, wait,

719
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: we can play here, Like this was not us like

720
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 1: being a bad team. This was just they made a

721
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: great play in the exact right spot. They're the champions.

722
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: What can we learn from this? I don't know. I'm

723
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: a little more nervous about it than I was, so

724
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 1: I'm glad we're on the same page. Meanwhile, I mentioned

725
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 1: up top with the Steelers We're just going to keep

726
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 1: playing with fire, right the Steelers plus three Every week

727
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 1: we say raw Rob Mike Tomlin, and we take it,

728
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: even though it feels kind of chalky and cliche at

729
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: this point. Same thing with the Kansas City Chiefs, who

730
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: are now two point dogs at Buffalo. It's come down

731
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: from two and a half. This was my ex decision

732
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 1: this week. The wise guys you said they were on Buffalo,

733
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 1: they bettered at the two and a half. A little

734
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: bit of buyback. All the precedent tells you not to

735
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 1: overthink it. You said it on Sunday, you said it

736
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 1: again on Tuesday. Do not go too deep into the matchup.

737
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 1: Take Patrick Mahomes. Why don't the wise guys agree with us?

738
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 2: I honestly think it's all about what groof Tree talked to.

739
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 2: I would say that some guys are like me that

740
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 2: just they've learned from going against Mahomes in the past

741
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 2: that there's just don't don't listen to your model, stop

742
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 2: thinking you know more, you just bet Mahomes. It's that

743
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,919
Speaker 2: kind of thing where the other side is just we

744
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: all know what they know. Right. This Chiefs team isn't

745
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 2: that good as people perceived. They've gotten extremely lucky this season.

746
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 2: They do have injuries that effective this team, like number

747
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 2: one receiver and their number one running back. That's a

748
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 2: huge thing to a team like that that needs those

749
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 2: explosive plays, right, and we've kind of seen they've just

750
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 2: figured it out out where they've dinked and dunked their

751
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 2: way down the field. Now they're kind of back to

752
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 2: what they were last year of just a slow, ugly,

753
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 2: drag it out kind of offense and that relies heavily

754
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 2: on their defense. And when we look at this matchup,

755
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 2: the biggest thing to me is just the pattern we've

756
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 2: talked about that we think that we've nailed with the

757
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 2: Bills and this team this season, which is if they're

758
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 2: playing a bad team, they can roll you. I mean,

759
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 2: we've seen it now with Joe Brady in this offense,

760
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 2: him calling it. They can run it down team's throats

761
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: if they're able to. The Chiefs aren't that type of team,

762
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,720
Speaker 2: and you know, we saw it with Houston. They struggled,

763
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 2: they lost by three, and then they got rolled by

764
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 2: that Ravens team. So we've seen them face good playoff

765
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 2: teams and they've lost this year. This Buffalo team and

766
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:45,479
Speaker 2: here comes the Chiefs we perceived to be a good

767
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 2: playoff team. I just think it's going to be tight.

768
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 2: And that that two and a half, which is such

769
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 2: a key number we always talk about. That felt like

770
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 2: to me, that's where all the value was on this number.

771
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 2: So Mahomes and the dog, we know, brain want to

772
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 2: be on it. The fact that we were getting two

773
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 2: and a half, I mean, chop around people. We we

774
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,959
Speaker 2: just said there's it's two now at bet three sixty five.

775
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 2: There's still a couple two and a halfs out there.

776
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:07,919
Speaker 2: Make sure you grab that number. We always talk about

777
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 2: such a key number. So I I am surprised that

778
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 2: the money has moved this number back down because it

779
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: seemed like the books were going to take a position

780
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 2: right when they moved the all way up to two

781
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 2: and a half. I don't know if you agree with me.

782
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 2: I was like, oh, this might get to three. Like

783
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 2: they're clearly taking a position here on the bills. They

784
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 2: think they have a good read on it. But they've

785
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 2: humbly moved it back down. So it seems like even

786
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 2: the books are a little unasure how to price this

787
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 2: game on this number.

788
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 1: I was convinced Monday when it didn't get to three,

789
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: because it got to two and a half right away

790
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 1: that it was just staying there. So I betted at

791
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:44,720
Speaker 1: two and a half Kansas City on Monday. It's been holden.

792
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised at all now that it's gotten back

793
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: down to two. I wouldn't be surprised if comes Sunday.

794
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: We've seen so much money, especially since Betty became legal,

795
00:40:55,560 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 1: come in on Sunday between eleven and one, so it's

796
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 1: like so hard to be patient during the week and like,

797
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 1: no that you might be able to get the number

798
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,320
Speaker 1: you want on Sunday. I actually think the number is

799
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 1: going to get lower. I think it's going to go

800
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 1: in the direction of the Chiefs because it's the Chiefs.

801
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:15,919
Speaker 1: They're undefeated. Most people are going to want to bet them.

802
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:19,240
Speaker 2: Oh, the money line, the teaser exposure, they're getting hammered

803
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 2: right now with it.

804
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 1: I think, like you, if you want the Chiefs, get

805
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 1: it now, because I don't think it's going to get

806
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 1: any better for you. A couple of stats keep in

807
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: mind we've mentioned them before. Mahomes eleven and three straight

808
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,240
Speaker 1: up as an underdog, twelve one and one against the spread.

809
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 1: This is the best straight up mark as a dog

810
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at

811
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 1: least ten starts. Of course, that one against the spread

812
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 1: loss came as an underdog in twenty twenty two at

813
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: home against Josh Allen and the Bills. They lost by four,

814
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: so two and a half point underdog also twenty six

815
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 1: to eight, and one in his career as a favorite

816
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: of three or fewer that is Mahomes And the other

817
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: thing I will say, like the Bills are not in

818
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: a great spot health wise. We talk about the Chiefs

819
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: and Isaiah p. Checko not back this week, or Rashi

820
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 1: Rice he's out right, but Kean Coleman not playing, Dalton

821
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 1: Kinkaid has a cast on his hand, Amari Cooper not playing.

822
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: They've got some issues on their offensive line. They're not perfect, Chad,

823
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: Before we go any further, just wanted to break into

824
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: the show here to give my beloved Buffalo Bills a

825
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 1: little pep talk. And who better to deliver this message

826
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: than my favorite coach all time, coach Pete Bell, played

827
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 1: by Nick Nolty in the seminal nineteen ninety four film

828
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 1: Blue Chips. Coach Bell, let him hear.

829
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 2: It, all right, boys, we got a job to do now.

830
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 2: Goddamn it, We're not I'm going out there to make

831
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,720
Speaker 2: a good show or just put up a good fight.

832
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 1: We're going out there to beat the best goddamn team

833
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 1: in the country.

834
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: Right now. Let me tell you something. Boys, you may

835
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 2: not know this, but I know it. There is the

836
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 2: talent in this room to do just that. He'll tell

837
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 2: them exactly what we're gonna do. I'll give them our offense.

838
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 2: I'll give them our defense because it's not what you do,

839
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 2: goddamn it, it's how you do it. And we're gonna

840
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 2: go nose to nose with him, and you're gonna play

841
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 2: better than you ever dreamed of, because goddamn it, that's

842
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 2: what I've have. Man of you. Good luck boys, give

843
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: him help the Bills. Make me a wanna.

844
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 1: Last game we want to talk about. This was an

845
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: alternate foxhol so I do want us to go through it.

846
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 1: We're sort of leaning Chargers right now minus one and

847
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 1: a half against the Bengals. Maybe we're like on the

848
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 1: wrong side of the wave now with the Chargers because

849
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 1: we've avoided the Chargers. We've said they're a little bit

850
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 1: too vanilla. We didn't believe they were good enough to

851
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: beat good teams. Now all of a sudden, we've changedtoon

852
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 1: and they could beat a good quarterback, which they haven't

853
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: done this year. They've lost the Mahomes, they've lost to

854
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. But maybe we're snake bitten. They've basically done

855
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: things they don't do the things that have burned us

856
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 1: the most. They don't make bad coaching decisions, they don't

857
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 1: make bad penalties at the worst possible time. They don't

858
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: turn the ball over. So now we like the Chargers.

859
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: We're not gonna put them in the contest, I don't think,

860
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: But give me your take here, I.

861
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: Wouldn't mind putting them in. I love the Chargers in

862
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 2: the spot. This is probably gonna end up being one

863
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 2: of my bigger bets. I just love the number. Love

864
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 2: this team, and the biggest thing I love about him

865
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 2: is that they're not the Cincinnati Bengals team. Shead, I

866
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:42,360
Speaker 2: think this is one of the more overrated teams of

867
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,919
Speaker 2: this season. You're like me, though, you love Joe Burrow

868
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 2: and he kind of blinds you to it.

869
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 1: Love them.

870
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 2: They're not good, this Bengals team. And I've thought that

871
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 2: all season, and I remember I was giving you a

872
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 2: hard time when they when you took them against the Eagles,

873
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,280
Speaker 2: and it's just like, I think they're going to struggle

874
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 2: against good defense, and they've been very fortunate this season.

875
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:06,799
Speaker 2: They really haven't faced many good defenses. And you know,

876
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: the public is a little blind to it right now

877
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 2: because what we just saw them put up forty one

878
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: against the Raiders two weeks ago, then last week in

879
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:18,720
Speaker 2: a primetime game, they put up thirty four. Like people

880
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 2: right now are just like this offense is a juggernaut,

881
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 2: They're unstoppable. We'll see like they're about to face another

882
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 2: really good defense, and I think that's gonna be the

883
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 2: difference here is the Chargers. They'll be patient, they'll wait.

884
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is gonna force one in there, They'll make

885
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: him make a mistake and that's when this Chargers team,

886
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 2: to me, will kind of take this game by the

887
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 2: rains and take a lead. So this is gonna be

888
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 2: to me, the biggest public side of the week. Everyone,

889
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: every bookmaker I've talked to it. Basically every teaser they've

890
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 2: gotten too far as the Chiefs Bengals teaser like, they

891
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 2: just can't stop taking those type of teasers, right now,

892
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 2: which makes total sense. You're getting Joe Burrow up to

893
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,439
Speaker 2: seven and a half, which is a pretty good number

894
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:00,040
Speaker 2: against his Chargers team in most people's minds. But I

895
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 2: could see this Chargers team rolling. It's just a team

896
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 2: that's kind of been slept on this season. Like you said,

897
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 2: we've even slept on them where we were just unsure

898
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 2: about what their identity was gonna be, and they've taken

899
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 2: on just this really smart team that plays stout defense.

900
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 2: I think that's something that's gonna give trouble with this

901
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 2: Bengals team. So even if this does turn into a

902
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 2: QB battle, I'm not too thrown off with it being

903
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 2: herbering his weapons. It feels like he's gotten more comfortable

904
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 2: to here down the road. So do I wish this

905
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 2: one kept going down? It woud been great to get

906
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: the Chargers of the dog. I thought it would keep

907
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 2: moving that way. This number is not bud despite just

908
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: about nine money nine percent of the tickets coming in

909
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 2: on that Bengals side. So we talked all the time.

910
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 2: There's certain games I like to dig my heels and

911
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 2: on this is gonna be one of them. We're primetime game,

912
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 2: which everyone's on a road dog. Uh, usually is not

913
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 2: good for these people.

914
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: Well, that's when you say you're digging your heels. It

915
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:55,399
Speaker 1: feels like you want to take a position and put

916
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: them in the contest. And now we're gonna have a

917
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:00,799
Speaker 1: challenge because I think we got we got if as

918
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: I see it, seven games we like for the contest,

919
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,959
Speaker 1: so we'll have to narrow it down after the show.

920
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 1: I think the games that we like the most Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit,

921
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 1: we like the Rams, Kansas City, the Chargers. I think

922
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 1: that's actually six, So it's gonna come Maybe it's coming

923
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:24,879
Speaker 1: down to the Chargers in the Browns. Maybe it's coming

924
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 1: down to the Chargers in the Rams. Are we gonna

925
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:31,800
Speaker 1: want like a road favorite in there and a big

926
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 1: favorite and a short home favorite that's going against what

927
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: the public is doing. That's gonna be it's gonna be exciting.

928
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: Each week we give out a two team money line

929
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: underdog parlay Bet three six five boosts the odds and

930
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:50,800
Speaker 1: highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.

931
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 1: Remember both games were eligible for Bet three six fives

932
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 1: early payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked

933
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: as a win. If that money line pick takes a

934
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: seven team point lead even if they lose. I've benefit

935
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: from this myself. If you want to bet this better

936
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 1: at bet three six five this week's boosted parlay Steelers

937
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 1: plus the Chiefs. Find the boost under either the Steelers

938
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,879
Speaker 1: or Chiefs game page. I'm bet three sixty five.

939
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: There will come up payday. Hallelu yo, wanna pay day?

940
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 2: There will come.

941
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 1: Up payday some day.

942
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 2: Some day there, I will come up heayday.

943
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 1: Hallelu yo.

944
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: Wanna payday.

945
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 2: I will come up payday some day.

946
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 1: Simon. This is where I thought we would land for

947
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: our underdog round. Robin. Tell me if you disagree. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Cleveland.

948
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 2: Uh, Cleveland is minus one tenth. So I'm gonna make

949
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 2: you sadly have to take that one out. Let's pair

950
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 2: up another long shot with that Coats one, because I

951
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 2: we're the type where you're getting to the point of

952
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 2: the season where it's like you want to take these

953
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 2: ugly dogs, like just like the Patriots last week, right

954
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: every now and then they're in, they're going to keep popping.

955
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 2: How do we not throw Tennessee?

956
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I thought you were going to say.

957
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 2: I know, like, no one's betting them they're plus two

958
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 2: oh five. Come on, this would be such a shocker,

959
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 2: and I love those type of bets.

960
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 1: Give me your biggest bets. Then right now you mentioned

961
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Where are your biggest bets?

962
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 2: They're not yet Chargers because I, like I said, I

963
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 2: felt the public would really hammer that that number on

964
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 2: the Bengals and I'd get a better number. But it

965
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 2: looks like I'm just gonna have to suck it up

966
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: and take this minus one and a half two and

967
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: a half chiefs if you can still find it. That's

968
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 2: no brown, no doubt aboucking with my bigger bets, Pittsburgh.

969
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 2: I was hoping we'd still get the three and a half.

970
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 2: Chat we've seen now it's the books are going to hold.

971
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 2: Now on the three, I haven't broken yet. Like my

972
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: early heavy money was on the three and a half.

973
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 2: Haven't touched the three yet. I'm gonna give in. This

974
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:57,320
Speaker 2: will be one of my bigger bets if it just

975
00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 2: stays of the three. I don't hate taking the three.

976
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 2: I just want the three and a half. You know

977
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 2: it is so those two they jumped out right away,

978
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 2: And then right now, I mean shockingly Detroit. I've just

979
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 2: been hammering it at thirteen. I was just all over

980
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: it thirteen and a half. I've played a little bit

981
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 2: of fourteen. I've slowed down a little bit just because

982
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 2: it's hitting that point of I don't think they're gonna push,

983
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: but it's like the value Obviously I've shifted at this point.

984
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,399
Speaker 2: But I really do love Detroit in this spot with this.

985
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: Number, and I love that about you. I love that

986
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: you and I independently who says we can't adjust? Fucking

987
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 1: love that you and I are both going balls to

988
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:39,839
Speaker 1: the wall on a two touchdown favorite in the Detroit

989
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: Lions Scoots Roulette. Last week we both lost. Who's your pick?

990
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: This week?

991
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

992
00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 3: Let's play Scoots Roulette?

993
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 2: I mean depends. Well, they let me get Chiefs two

994
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 2: and a half.

995
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: Give me Chiefs two and a half.

996
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:07,720
Speaker 2: All right, I appreciate you. Give me, give me the boring,

997
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 2: the safe play. I need to get back on my

998
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 2: winning ways. Give me Chiefs two and a half.

999
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 1: So I narrowed it down to the Rams, Detroit and

1000
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:17,879
Speaker 1: Indie and the fact that you love Detroit as much

1001
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: as you do if you can give me the lowest

1002
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: available price on Detroit that is on the board anywhere

1003
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 1: I want to take Detroit.

1004
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:27,839
Speaker 2: There's a thirteen out there, all.

1005
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,959
Speaker 1: Right, then I'm taking Detroit minus thirteen.

1006
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 2: The most public book there is, so it doesn't matter.

1007
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 1: I'll take it. Customer Friendly decisions have been made. I'm

1008
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: getting a customer friendly line.

1009
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: True.

1010
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: Listen, Before we get out of here, let's bring in

1011
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 1: our director of research, Evan Abrams, for the final word.

1012
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 1: He's going to make us feel so much better about

1013
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 1: everything we've said today.

1014
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

1015
00:51:58,000 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 3: It would have been crazy a few years ago, just

1016
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 3: that we were starting a game down fourteen points and

1017
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 3: we had the Lions. But that's where we sit today.

1018
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 3: All right, Let's talk about the Chiefs because that's the

1019
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 3: game of the weekend. Here's a nugget I kind of

1020
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 3: drew up here. If you like Kansas City, you're gonna

1021
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,240
Speaker 3: like where this is headed. So since the Patriots undefeated

1022
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 3: season in two thousand and seven, we've had just three

1023
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:20,240
Speaker 3: undefeated teams lose three consecutive games against the spread or more.

1024
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 3: Where the Chiefs right now are on a three game

1025
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 3: ats losing streak. That is the twenty twenty Titans, the

1026
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen Rams, and the two thousand and nine Saints.

1027
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 3: After that three game ATS losing streak, those teams win

1028
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 3: three and zero straight up and against the spread, covering

1029
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,920
Speaker 3: by twenty three point five points per game after that streak.

1030
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 3: What I'm telling why, I'm telling you this. If you

1031
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 3: like Kansas City and you think being undefeated, even though

1032
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 3: that Denver field goal was one way or the other,

1033
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 3: isn't an accident, then covering and covering by a lot

1034
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 3: is coming. So that is a positive aspect of looking

1035
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 3: at the three game ATS losing streak they're on.

1036
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 1: That's how I'm looking at it. Evan.

1037
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 3: I now, Pittsburgh, you've said a lot about Tomlin. I

1038
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 3: just want to give you two more fun things. So

1039
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 3: his teams have faced Lamar four times. He's three and

1040
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,760
Speaker 3: one straight up and four and zero against the spread.

1041
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,760
Speaker 3: That's the good part because usually after you face Lamar

1042
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 3: a time or two, he ends up getting back at you,

1043
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 3: and that hasn't happened with Tomlin. One of the reasons

1044
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 3: might be how he does against the run game. So

1045
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 3: when Tomlin is a dog facing a rush offense averaging

1046
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 3: four plus yards per carry. He's twenty five and eight

1047
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 3: against the spread. When that moves to four point five

1048
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 3: yards per carry, it's eleven and four against the spread.

1049
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 3: And that's exactly what they're gonna have to do, is

1050
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 3: stop the run. Let's go to the Colts for a second.

1051
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 3: So the Jets, and this just gets crazier every week.

1052
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 3: But the Jets are three and seven straight up a

1053
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 3: thirty percent win percentage. They are four point favorites teams

1054
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 3: thirty three percent win percentage or less favored by four

1055
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 3: or more forty percent ats last twenty years. They are

1056
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:50,880
Speaker 3: thirteen and twenty eight against the spread thirty two percent

1057
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 3: over the last decade. If you like Indy, it's just

1058
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 3: a straight numbers play. And I got one for the Rams.

1059
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 3: So this one I literally just checked again ten minutes

1060
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:01,320
Speaker 3: ago because I wanted to make sure it was true.

1061
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 3: As a big favorite on the road, McVeigh has been

1062
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 3: nearly flawless as a favorite of above four points on

1063
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 3: the road. He is seventeen and oh straight up in

1064
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 3: his career, never lost, So hopefully that continues this week,

1065
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 3: and I gets New England for you guys.

1066
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:19,280
Speaker 1: But that's what I got today, Chaed Wow, Simon, that's

1067
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:23,280
Speaker 1: going to make some of our decisions today really difficult.

1068
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: I'm excited. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen other

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Speaker 1: All right, Simon and I back for the next episode

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Speaker 1: of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: seven point thirty Eastern will recap week eleven. We'll get

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Speaker 1: ahead of week twelve. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, Leavis, flotstars,

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Speaker 1: say whatever you want, feedback a gift until next time.

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Speaker 1: Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

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