WEBVTT - Markets, Ukraine, and Higher Ed

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moven news.

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<v Speaker 2>Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever

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<v Speaker 2>you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, so let's see if it matters to Fill Orlando,

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<v Speaker 3>chief Equity strategis of It Federated Hermez joining us to

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<v Speaker 3>talk about that. Feel so good to have you here

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<v Speaker 3>on Bloomberg with Billy and myself. What is it that

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<v Speaker 3>you find interesting and what are you seeing in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of trends and flows right now?

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<v Speaker 2>First of all, thank you very much for having me

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<v Speaker 2>back on. We were expecting that the powerful rally that we

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<v Speaker 2>saw in the equity market, largely driven by that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>relatively narrow group of eight technology stocks in the first

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<v Speaker 2>seven months of the year, that there was going to

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<v Speaker 2>be a reversion of the mean. And you know, certainly

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<v Speaker 2>the August, September, October time frame is as good as

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<v Speaker 2>any for that to occur, and so we thought the

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<v Speaker 2>pullback might take the s and p back down about

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<v Speaker 2>the forty two hundred level, or so let's call it

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<v Speaker 2>a ten twelve percent correction. A good chunk of that

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<v Speaker 2>has happened, and certainly the backup and interest rates you know,

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<v Speaker 2>benchmark tens going from you know, three and a half

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<v Speaker 2>percent up into the four and a half percent neighborhood

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<v Speaker 2>here over the last couple of months has facilitated that.

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<v Speaker 2>The thing that I find really interesting when you talk

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<v Speaker 2>about flows, and I'm going to throw in a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit of amateur technical analysis here, is that our bond

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<v Speaker 2>guys tell us that once the benchmark tens broke about

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<v Speaker 2>the four thirty five level or thereabouts on yield, there

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<v Speaker 2>really wasn't a lot of overhead resistance until you get

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<v Speaker 2>up to a five handle. So it's interesting that you've,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you hear a lot of the you know

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<v Speaker 2>experts and well known people in recent days talking about

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that they wouldn't be surprised to see treasuries

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<v Speaker 2>at five percent.

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<v Speaker 4>For six or seven or well.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know that I'm willing to step in front

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<v Speaker 2>of that freight train just yet, but certainly it's interesting

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<v Speaker 2>that our duration committee is not adding to duration lengthening

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<v Speaker 2>duration here, you know, with this big move up into

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<v Speaker 2>the four and a half percent neighborhood, I sort of

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<v Speaker 2>think they they're sort of seeing that a five percent

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<v Speaker 2>number is reality, and let's let's cool our jets a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit until we get a little bit better feel

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<v Speaker 2>for what's going on.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, And so, looking at some of the major averages

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<v Speaker 5>so far this year, the equal weight to S and

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<v Speaker 5>P five hundred is now actually read on the year.

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<v Speaker 5>This is obviously the SMP still up eleven percent.

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<v Speaker 6>Where are you putting money to work? And what do

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<v Speaker 6>you make of that?

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<v Speaker 5>Just given the magnificent seven for better or worse, is

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<v Speaker 5>still holding major averages higher.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, if you look at the perform of the equity

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<v Speaker 2>market over the course of the last couple of months

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<v Speaker 2>since this correction started, the growthier technology oriented names disproportionately

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<v Speaker 2>are the ones that are giving up some of the games,

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<v Speaker 2>and that makes perfect sense. The areas that we like,

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<v Speaker 2>that we've liked have been the areas that were left

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<v Speaker 2>for dead in the first seven months of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>Domestic large cap value, smaller cap names, international names, stocks

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<v Speaker 2>that have lower valuation profiles, higher dividend yield support and

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<v Speaker 2>we see that rotation. So energy, for example, which has

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<v Speaker 2>been one of our favorite categories. You couldn't give that

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<v Speaker 2>stuff away in the first six months of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>Now everyone loves energy. Well, you know, crude oil has

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<v Speaker 2>also gone from the mid sixties into the low nineties

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<v Speaker 2>over the last three or four months. Again based upon

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<v Speaker 2>you know, technical analysis or momentum or whatever. Some folks

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<v Speaker 2>are now saying, well, you know, crew's going to get

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<v Speaker 2>to one hundred. The fundamentals Back in June, when crude

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<v Speaker 2>was sitting at sixty five dollars a barrel told us

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<v Speaker 2>that we could get to eighty or ninety. We're there

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<v Speaker 2>probably earlier than we thought. And now we're starting to

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<v Speaker 2>get some momentum that may take crude back up to park.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>It's kind of interesting, right, and we do talk about

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<v Speaker 3>that certainly at Bloomberg in terms of the energy price impact. Hey, Phil,

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<v Speaker 3>thank you so much, really appreciate it. Fill Orlando Chief

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<v Speaker 3>Acrety strategist of it Federated Urmes joining us with his

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<v Speaker 3>market out look. I'm Carol Masser along with Bailey Lipshelt.

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<v Speaker 3>You are listening and watching Bloomberg Markets on this Monday,

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<v Speaker 3>and this is Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the Team Ken's our line program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

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<v Speaker 7>the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen

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<v Speaker 7>on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 8>Nancy Curtin and partner of Global C the head of

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<v Speaker 8>the investment advisory at out the TEDAM and Global, Thanks

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<v Speaker 8>for being with us today.

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<v Speaker 9>Get it.

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<v Speaker 8>You heard the Jamie Downing there mentioned what I did.

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<v Speaker 8>They could handle seven to eight percent rates the ten

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<v Speaker 8>year at four sixty five. That would appear to be

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<v Speaker 8>at least partially in the driver's sea for equities. What

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<v Speaker 8>is your outlook for rates and the impact on the

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<v Speaker 8>risk assets?

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<v Speaker 10>Well, look, you know, near term we're a bit cautious here,

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<v Speaker 10>and we said to clients at the end of July

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<v Speaker 10>that trees don't grow into the skies. You know, after

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<v Speaker 10>twenty percent total return of the S and P five hundred,

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<v Speaker 10>we needed to pull back a correction of consolidation. Okay,

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<v Speaker 10>but if we look at the fundamentals, the reason that

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<v Speaker 10>we have near term caution is what I call sort

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<v Speaker 10>of a litany of triple loows. You know, the first

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<v Speaker 10>is the higher rates that Jamie mentioned and that you've

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<v Speaker 10>mentioned in your program. These higher rates are coming at

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<v Speaker 10>the long end that sets the cost of capital for companies.

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<v Speaker 10>So that's going higher. In part maybe it's about a

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<v Speaker 10>long term view on structural inflation. It's also about a

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<v Speaker 10>rising term premium. I think investors getting to grips with

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<v Speaker 10>the size of the fiscal deficits. So you know, higher

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<v Speaker 10>interest costs for companies and borrowers. You also have higher

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<v Speaker 10>oil and that's a tax on the consumer. And finally

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<v Speaker 10>you have a higher dollar and dollars up about seven

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<v Speaker 10>percent from the July low. So I put those three

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<v Speaker 10>things together. I've got a higher cost of capital, I've

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<v Speaker 10>got a tax on the consumer, and I've got global tightening.

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<v Speaker 10>So we do expect growth to slow. Growth to slow

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<v Speaker 10>in the United States in particular, but by the way,

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<v Speaker 10>that's no bad thing. The third quart of the United

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<v Speaker 10>States growth has been accelerating here. Whether the number comes

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<v Speaker 10>in at three percent or three and a half or

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<v Speaker 10>two point six, it's going to be higher than the

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<v Speaker 10>second quarter. And we do think it's important that growth slows,

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<v Speaker 10>and that's part of what has to happen here to.

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<v Speaker 5>Down inflation and Nancy. All we talk about seemingly is

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<v Speaker 5>the Magnificent seven driving major indexes higher. When we look

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<v Speaker 5>at some of the steam coming off of those big

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<v Speaker 5>technology companies, where are you looking to put money to

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<v Speaker 5>work in terms of growth sectors, growth assets, whether it's

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<v Speaker 5>in the US or outside.

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<v Speaker 10>So, first of all, as I said, a notive caution

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<v Speaker 10>here near term, although I wouldn't be at all surprised

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<v Speaker 10>to see a year end rally. But let's go back

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<v Speaker 10>to the fundamentals that I just mentioned. We need to

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<v Speaker 10>get inflation lower. We think it will grind lower as

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<v Speaker 10>we head into twenty twenty four. And remember, for our

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<v Speaker 10>clients who are long term investors, we're not trying to

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<v Speaker 10>trade in trade out of the market anyway. That's fools erin.

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<v Speaker 10>As you know, you missed the best days and markets,

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<v Speaker 10>you miss Allian's share of the return. But as we

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<v Speaker 10>look forward to twenty twenty four, we think there's a

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<v Speaker 10>possibility of a soft landing, which is to say, central

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<v Speaker 10>banks are able to get inflation low enough that they

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<v Speaker 10>can dial back on this tightening cycle, ease a bit

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<v Speaker 10>of financial conditions, and that can lead the groundwork for

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<v Speaker 10>a bit more of a cyclical recovery, other parts of

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<v Speaker 10>the market and economy that haven't participated doing better. And

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<v Speaker 10>so yes, while we have US large cap everyone does

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<v Speaker 10>know the S and P five hundred and the Magnificent

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<v Speaker 10>seven are such a large component of the index. But

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<v Speaker 10>we also have diversification and things like MidCap rest of

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<v Speaker 10>world areas that trade at a thirty to forty percent

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<v Speaker 10>discount to US large cap, and we think these are

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<v Speaker 10>the areas if we can get a cyclical recovery next year.

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<v Speaker 10>We see market breadth widening in these the areas in

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<v Speaker 10>particular that will participate and as they said, trade at

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<v Speaker 10>much more attractive valuations.

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<v Speaker 8>Nancy, welcome to the fourth quarter, the end of the

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<v Speaker 8>earnings recession. I mean, comparison's going to be a lot

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<v Speaker 8>easier going forward, right.

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<v Speaker 10>Well, not only that, but look, as I just mentioned,

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<v Speaker 10>the third quarter growth has been pretty strong here, so

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<v Speaker 10>we wouldn't be at all surprised to see third quarter

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<v Speaker 10>earnings come in above expectations. And by the way, the

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<v Speaker 10>people that have been wrong have been the top down

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<v Speaker 10>and the strategists. The people that have been right have

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<v Speaker 10>been largely the bottom up analysts, And if you look

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<v Speaker 10>at analyst expectations, you know, and if you just give

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<v Speaker 10>their price gain times the index weight, you know. According

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<v Speaker 10>to factset, most analysts bottom up are expecting a pretty

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<v Speaker 10>decent recovery over the next year. Now, critical to earnings

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<v Speaker 10>are critical to market is that we actually see some

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<v Speaker 10>positive earnings growth. That's our view that we'll get it.

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<v Speaker 10>Whether we get to forty six to forty next year

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<v Speaker 10>or something less or more than that remains to be seen.

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<v Speaker 10>But positive earnings growth is absolutely critical here because markets

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<v Speaker 10>have moved higher on price, we now need earnings not

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<v Speaker 10>just to beat, you know, do better, less downside, less

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<v Speaker 10>negative actually produce that positive earnings growth. But that is

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<v Speaker 10>our view. Again, it remains to be seen, and like

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<v Speaker 10>everybody else, will be watching the data.

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<v Speaker 5>And Nancy soft landing, is it possible? What are you

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<v Speaker 5>expecting in terms of where the economy is going?

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<v Speaker 10>So look, what is the definition of a soft line.

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<v Speaker 10>It has like no formal economic definition, but basically it

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<v Speaker 10>means if plation can come down without huge damage to

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<v Speaker 10>the economy and out huge damage to the labor market.

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<v Speaker 10>And we think that remains a possibility. Nobody can be

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<v Speaker 10>sure here, but that is our view, and part of

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<v Speaker 10>it is by the way, is we do think economic

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<v Speaker 10>growth will slow. We think it needs to slow from

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<v Speaker 10>the rather toward pace of the third quarter. But actually

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<v Speaker 10>there are other parts of GDP that are kicking in here.

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<v Speaker 10>KAPEC spend in the second quarter was up seven and

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<v Speaker 10>a half percent. Trade is a positive contribution to GDP

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<v Speaker 10>growth because we're bringing production back home again and that

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<v Speaker 10>means where we're exporting more than we're importing. We think

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<v Speaker 10>the government will remain broadly stimulative, just given the programs

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<v Speaker 10>that have passed already. So while the consumer was slow,

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<v Speaker 10>we think there are other parts of the economy that

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<v Speaker 10>will kick in, and we do think there's a likely

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<v Speaker 10>possible soft landing. Now they're very unusual in history. We'll

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<v Speaker 10>only seem like two since the nineteen seventies. But both

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<v Speaker 10>of those have also coincided with an increase in cap

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<v Speaker 10>x span that I just mentioned and also innovation.

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<v Speaker 8>Nancy, always a pleasure, appreciate it. Thanks for being with

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<v Speaker 8>us on the program today. Nancy Kurtin, the chief investment

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<v Speaker 8>Officer out the health of TETAM and global.

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<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the tape. Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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<v Speaker 7>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

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<v Speaker 9>The Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 7>flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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<v Speaker 8>Let's say hello to our next guest. We've got to

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<v Speaker 8>get them seated first, and the higher edg chat. And

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<v Speaker 8>we're also welcoming Bloomberg stand at Lauren in on this discussion.

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<v Speaker 8>Our resident education expert here at Bloomberg, Reginald Derosius. As

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<v Speaker 8>the president of Rice University. You know, I want to

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<v Speaker 8>start out it was over the weekend that the student

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<v Speaker 8>loan payments began. I wanted to get your take on

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<v Speaker 8>that first off, after the pandemic induced delay that was

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<v Speaker 8>initiated by the Biden administration.

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<v Speaker 9>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 11>So for Rice, as I mentioned a few times, we're

0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.720
<v Speaker 11>no loan institution. We meet full need, and so at

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:44.240
<v Speaker 11>least from our perspective, we really work hard to make

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:46.400
<v Speaker 11>sure that we provide a full financial need for our

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:51.199
<v Speaker 11>students where need blind. As an admissions organization and so

0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:54.120
<v Speaker 11>from our student body, it's not as much of an issue.

0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:55.839
<v Speaker 11>I know it's an issue for many students. Across the

0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.480
<v Speaker 11>country the issue of the loan repayment.

0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:04.640
<v Speaker 8>Janet Lauren joining us in studio or education expert. I

0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:06.320
<v Speaker 8>want to bring you into the discussion.

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.680
<v Speaker 12>So we were talking a little bit earlier about graduate loans.

0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 12>Later this year, perhaps next year, you're going to see

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.880
<v Speaker 12>the student loan portfolio of new loans are going to

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.719
<v Speaker 12>be mostly for graduate students instead of undergrads.

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:22.199
<v Speaker 6>Can you talk a little.

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 12>Bit about graduate education and programs and how those are funded,

0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.480
<v Speaker 12>especially by loans, and how some of your students, how

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 12>are they doing in terms of income.

0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:35.520
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, So we have a number of graduate programs at RICE,

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 11>and particularly in the business and in the engineering side

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:42.679
<v Speaker 11>of things, data science, engineering and then business. One of

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 11>the things we focused on recently is making sure in

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.200
<v Speaker 11>addition to the full time programs where students do have

0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.360
<v Speaker 11>to stop work and in some cases take out a loan,

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.160
<v Speaker 11>we have programs now that are part time, that are online.

0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 11>We have a fifth year of the online MBA at RICE.

0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:03.760
<v Speaker 11>Online program popular in large part to allow the flexibility

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.080
<v Speaker 11>for people to be able to continue to work while

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 11>they do these programs online on their own time. And

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.800
<v Speaker 11>that's really helped with the affordability piece. And we have

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:15.119
<v Speaker 11>that both on the engineering and the management side and

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.840
<v Speaker 11>business side, and in both cases these students come out

0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:19.479
<v Speaker 11>doing very well financially.

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 12>And he was just telling us about a new program

0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 12>that was custom designed for students to work at Chevron

0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 12>where the employer pays. That's certainly the way to go

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 12>if you can get someone else to pay for your

0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.800
<v Speaker 12>master's degree. Can you tell us a little.

0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:34.040
<v Speaker 4>Bit about that.

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 11>Absolutely. So this was a program that we designed in

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.880
<v Speaker 11>concert with Chevron where they were very interested in taking

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 11>their employees who didn't have a background in data science

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 11>but needed to understand more about data science and AI.

0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:48.560
<v Speaker 11>And we take around twenty five people per year through

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 11>that program. We've crafted it specifically for people in that industry,

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.080
<v Speaker 11>and we really provide them with the skill sets to

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.200
<v Speaker 11>be data science within the context of what they're doing

0:14:57.400 --> 0:14:59.120
<v Speaker 11>at Chevron. And we're looking to do more of that

0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:01.600
<v Speaker 11>with the various indus trees that are in the city

0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 11>of Houston.

0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 8>You know, I got to answer about artificial intelligence. How

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:09.320
<v Speaker 8>is that impacting higher education? And I don't mean just

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.040
<v Speaker 8>like you know, looking at term papers and like, oh

0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:13.960
<v Speaker 8>my god, where did this come from? Because you didn't

0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 8>write this kid right.

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 11>So in many ways, I mean there's a research piece

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.000
<v Speaker 11>and then there's education piece. The research pieces, it's impacting

0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 11>just nearly every field that's there. Where you happen to

0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:25.480
<v Speaker 11>be across the street from the largest medical center in

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:29.080
<v Speaker 11>the world, the Texas Medical Center, with many institutions and

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 11>medical schools there, and their number one interest in working

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 11>with RICE is around AI and data science because they

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 11>know it's rapidly transforming that those industries into healthcare.

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:40.640
<v Speaker 6>Similarly, the energy.

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:44.720
<v Speaker 11>Industry is being transformed through AI and data science, and

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.360
<v Speaker 11>so we're forming a lot more partnerships and we're seeing

0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:51.000
<v Speaker 11>how research in that space is really transforming nearly every industry.

0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 11>And so we're really focused on making sure we build

0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 11>our faculty with that expertise so that we can be

0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 11>a major player in some of the research that's taken

0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 11>place in the city of Houston and around the world.

0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:05.840
<v Speaker 11>On the education side, clearly we hatch YOUTP and other

0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 11>tools like that. Our approach has been to understand that

0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 11>it's here and make sure that we craft our assignments

0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 11>and our exams with the understanding that students have access

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 11>to this. And now we're even asking our faculty to

0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 11>on their syllabus, to ask the students whether or not

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 11>they're using it for then assignment, just to understand whether

0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 11>or not they're they're going to use it and make

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.560
<v Speaker 11>sure you keep that in mind as you're reviewing the assignment.

0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.200
<v Speaker 5>And given the shift that we've seen with a number

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 5>of companies moving to Texas, how does that position or

0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.600
<v Speaker 5>better position RICE graduates to be better set up for

0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:39.400
<v Speaker 5>careers after college.

0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 11>Very well, both at the undergraduate level, We've always worked

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:44.920
<v Speaker 11>hard to prepare our students to be able to work

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 11>in a variety of industries. Replace our students very well.

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 11>Our students are very well regarded. We have a robust,

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 11>rigorous undergraduate education that's a good mix of both technical

0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:58.680
<v Speaker 11>training as well as a broad based liberal arts education.

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 11>So we've done a great job at the undergraduate level

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 11>preparing our students. What was mentioning earlier, Janet was mentioning

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:06.800
<v Speaker 11>is one of the things we're focused on now is

0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:09.679
<v Speaker 11>how do we grow more graduate programs that help with

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 11>the upskilling that's needed for all the industries in the

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:14.760
<v Speaker 11>city of Houston. And that's why we're growing more of

0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:19.160
<v Speaker 11>these professional master's programs and engineering in the Business School

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 11>and other areas where we know there's a major need

0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:22.040
<v Speaker 11>in the city of Houston.

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:26.480
<v Speaker 8>Are there enough student visas to go around? And I

0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:28.439
<v Speaker 8>wonder if you could weigh in on that.

0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:33.199
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, we particularly at the gradual level, in particular at

0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 11>the doctoral level, many of our doctoral students are are

0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 11>foreign students, and we've been challenged. I think many universities

0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:41.679
<v Speaker 11>are challenged every year with the ability to get students

0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 11>in the timely fashion, getting their visas in the timely fashion,

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.240
<v Speaker 11>to be able to come here and do their doctoral work.

0:17:47.280 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 11>It's mostly really at the doctoral level. We have a

0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 11>large number of foreign students. About half of our PhD

0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:56.480
<v Speaker 11>students are from outside the US, and that's that's something

0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:58.320
<v Speaker 11>that's been a challenge for us, and I think many

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:00.000
<v Speaker 11>of my peer peer institutions.

0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:05.120
<v Speaker 8>Let me just reintroduce everyone here, Reginald Derocious, the president

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:09.159
<v Speaker 8>of Rice the University, discussing higher education, among other things.

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.360
<v Speaker 8>Janet Lauren from Bloomberg News or education expert. I'm John

0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.879
<v Speaker 8>Tucker along with Bailly Lipschultz. You want to weigh in again.

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, we were talking a little bit when we were

0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:22.480
<v Speaker 12>meeting with reporters and editors about attracting faculty you're growing

0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 12>not only your student body but your faculty. Can you talk,

0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:28.199
<v Speaker 12>Is it a challenge to get people to want to

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.800
<v Speaker 12>move to Texas, especially if they're coming from the coasts.

0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:33.520
<v Speaker 11>So yeah, so we are growing. We're adding two hundred

0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:36.920
<v Speaker 11>faculty for university of all size. It's pretty sign significant.

0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:40.159
<v Speaker 11>We have about seven hundred faculty currently at Rice, and

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.159
<v Speaker 11>we're growing undergraduate student body by twenty percent. You know,

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:45.440
<v Speaker 11>we find that if we can get people to Texas,

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:47.320
<v Speaker 11>we can get people to Houston and they can see

0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 11>how cosmopolitan it is, how diverse it is, the rich culture, museum,

0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:56.600
<v Speaker 11>the museum, culture and music culture that we do well

0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.480
<v Speaker 11>in recruiting people, and so we've been able to so

0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 11>far to exceptionally talented group of faculty to Rice. We're

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 11>really pleased with that and we will continue to work hard.

0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:07.399
<v Speaker 11>The main thing is to get them there. Hopefully not

0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 11>during the summer when it's one hundred and four degrees

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:11.640
<v Speaker 11>as it was most of the summer, but we get

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:14.160
<v Speaker 11>them a nice time of the year and they really

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.399
<v Speaker 11>are surprised as to how diverse and cosmopolitan and what

0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 11>a great city it is.

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:23.200
<v Speaker 8>The research that you do does that then generate business

0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:27.000
<v Speaker 8>that the university and the researchers can then capitalize on.

0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:29.640
<v Speaker 11>Absolutely it does. And one of our big focuses moving

0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:32.800
<v Speaker 11>forward as a university is helping to accelerate that. And

0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 11>so we've created when I became President and Office of

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:39.520
<v Speaker 11>Innovation and Commercialization with the sole purpose of helping our

0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 11>faculty in concert in some cases with industry, to commercialize

0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.679
<v Speaker 11>their research and have new startups in the Houston area.

0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:51.480
<v Speaker 11>And we have a new innovation district about a mile

0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 11>and a half from campus, is called the Ion District,

0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.120
<v Speaker 11>with the sole purposes around fourteen acres of land right

0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.720
<v Speaker 11>between Rice and downtown, with the sole purpose of industry

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.919
<v Speaker 11>to create more startups in the high tech area of

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:04.680
<v Speaker 11>in Houston.

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 8>Does any of that conflict and wonder your thoughts on

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:12.560
<v Speaker 8>that conflict with the idea behind research in the first place.

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:13.440
<v Speaker 6>It doesn't conflict.

0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:16.720
<v Speaker 11>It's fact it's synergistic. And increasingly now it used to

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.320
<v Speaker 11>be people recruiting faculty to universities they're really interested in

0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:23.600
<v Speaker 11>the lab space more importantly in the graduate student quality,

0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 11>but now they also want to know what resources do

0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.120
<v Speaker 11>you have to help them start a business or start

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.359
<v Speaker 11>a company from their research. It's becoming a part of

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:34.320
<v Speaker 11>what universities do on the research side, absolutely, and we

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.160
<v Speaker 11>want to make sure that we are equipped to help

0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:38.439
<v Speaker 11>out faculty who have the interest in doing that. Not

0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:40.840
<v Speaker 11>all disciplines do that, not all faculty have that interest,

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 11>but those that do, we want to put the infrastructure

0:20:43.280 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 11>there for them to be able to do that.

0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:46.920
<v Speaker 12>And then do you often help them, you know, with

0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:51.200
<v Speaker 12>patents and then and then licenses. We do companies.

0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:53.400
<v Speaker 11>We have an entire office that does that and increasingly

0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.560
<v Speaker 11>now we have we've uh, we have some seed funding

0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:58.639
<v Speaker 11>for them who want for the faculty who want to

0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:01.960
<v Speaker 11>start a company, just allow them to get off campus,

0:21:02.280 --> 0:21:04.680
<v Speaker 11>have space somewhere else off campus, because you really can't

0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:08.680
<v Speaker 11>do that on campus. And we have new seed grant

0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:09.919
<v Speaker 11>program that allow them to do that.

0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:13.040
<v Speaker 12>And then if there are innovations that are licensed, the

0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:15.000
<v Speaker 12>university keep some of that revenue.

0:21:14.800 --> 0:21:15.119
<v Speaker 6>They do.

0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:18.800
<v Speaker 11>There's always a split, and sometimes we negotiated abortion goals

0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:22.560
<v Speaker 11>to the university, a portion goals to the founder of

0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:25.359
<v Speaker 11>the company and his or her partners, and.

0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:28.200
<v Speaker 12>That's often coming from government research grants.

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:30.280
<v Speaker 11>In some cases it's coming from government grants, in some

0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:32.720
<v Speaker 11>cases it might be coming from private industry. Grants and

0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:35.640
<v Speaker 11>there are different contracts depending on where it's coming from.

0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:37.440
<v Speaker 12>So another potential revenue source.

0:21:38.080 --> 0:21:39.040
<v Speaker 6>It is, it is.

0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:41.720
<v Speaker 11>It takes the time sometimes to develop that, but absolutely

0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 11>it is.

0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:45.040
<v Speaker 12>That comes to mind Lyrica at Northwestern.

0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:46.440
<v Speaker 11>Erica, Northwest and there are a few of them obviously,

0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.320
<v Speaker 11>Google at Stanford and many others like that.

0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:52.480
<v Speaker 8>How the el's doing.

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:55.040
<v Speaker 11>They're doing well, We're three and two. We had a

0:21:55.040 --> 0:21:59.000
<v Speaker 11>big win earlier this year against our partner down the street,

0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 11>University Houston, for time in thirteen years that we beat them.

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:05.199
<v Speaker 11>And we're excited about being in a new conference, American

0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:06.000
<v Speaker 11>Athletic Conference.

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:08.320
<v Speaker 8>And will you explain to me how this is all working,

0:22:08.320 --> 0:22:10.800
<v Speaker 8>because it's a complete mystery college sports at this.

0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:11.560
<v Speaker 9>Point, you know.

0:22:11.720 --> 0:22:13.720
<v Speaker 8>I mean, if you're in California, you know, on the

0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:15.919
<v Speaker 8>lacrosse team, you now have to get on a plane

0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.080
<v Speaker 8>to play on the East coast.

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:21.040
<v Speaker 6>Or yeah, Syracuse, right, I mean that really.

0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:23.680
<v Speaker 8>Imporacts a student's ability to then it.

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 11>Does, No, it does. I think a lot of us

0:22:25.560 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 11>are concerned about the conference realignment. My daughter was a

0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:30.240
<v Speaker 11>student athlete at Rice. She was on a soccer team.

0:22:30.320 --> 0:22:31.520
<v Speaker 11>She just graduated in May.

0:22:31.840 --> 0:22:33.240
<v Speaker 12>Congratulations, thank you, and I.

0:22:33.240 --> 0:22:35.440
<v Speaker 11>Saw the work, the hard work that she did, traveling

0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:38.560
<v Speaker 11>around the country to play games and coming back late

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:40.320
<v Speaker 11>at night and having to study for an exam the

0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:42.160
<v Speaker 11>next day. So I think there's a lot of concern

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:46.320
<v Speaker 11>about the conference realignment. I'm a big proponent of intercollegiate athletics.

0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:48.720
<v Speaker 11>I think it's an important part of a university. I

0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:52.359
<v Speaker 11>think the student athletes at Rice are incredible people to

0:22:52.359 --> 0:22:54.600
<v Speaker 11>be able to balance competing at the highest level with

0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:57.800
<v Speaker 11>the academics produce as leaders, and we will continue to

0:22:57.840 --> 0:23:00.520
<v Speaker 11>support them despite some of the challenges that that we're

0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:02.200
<v Speaker 11>facing right now in the industry.

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:04.840
<v Speaker 8>That was a fascinating discussion. Good to see you, nice

0:23:04.840 --> 0:23:06.439
<v Speaker 8>to meet you, Thanks for sing thank you to you

0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:10.000
<v Speaker 8>than you appreciate it. And Janet, you too. Reginald de Rosius,

0:23:10.040 --> 0:23:14.520
<v Speaker 8>the President of Rice University and Bloomberg News Higher Education

0:23:14.640 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 8>reporter Janet Lauren.

0:23:17.280 --> 0:23:21.119
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the Team Can't Live program Bloomberg Markets

0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:24.280
<v Speaker 7>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:27.480
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0:23:31.400 --> 0:23:34.200
<v Speaker 8>With that in the background. Our next guest, Matt Stuckey

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:39.360
<v Speaker 8>to senior portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual with your market

0:23:39.400 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 8>outlook and expectations to what extent are rates in the

0:23:42.880 --> 0:23:47.360
<v Speaker 8>driver's seat and do you have an adequate explanation for us?

0:23:49.200 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, those are all really important points, and we do

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:54.280
<v Speaker 13>think rates are ultimately going to be the driver of

0:23:54.320 --> 0:23:58.720
<v Speaker 13>the outcome of this FED tidening cycle, which from our perspective,

0:23:59.359 --> 0:24:03.320
<v Speaker 13>is of recession, the timing of which we think is uncertain.

0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:07.359
<v Speaker 13>I think that we've been surprised with resiliency that we've

0:24:07.400 --> 0:24:11.120
<v Speaker 13>seen from the economy throughout twenty twenty three, especially within

0:24:11.119 --> 0:24:15.840
<v Speaker 13>the labor markets. But I think anytime we look at

0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.960
<v Speaker 13>FED tightening cycles since World War Two, ten out of

0:24:19.000 --> 0:24:22.119
<v Speaker 13>thirteen of those cycles have resulted in a recession, and

0:24:22.200 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 13>the three that did not did not end up there

0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:29.199
<v Speaker 13>and resulted in a soft landing. The FED was not

0:24:29.320 --> 0:24:33.199
<v Speaker 13>in inflation hiding mode and they certainly are today. So

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:37.159
<v Speaker 13>you know, we think the outlook is fairly is fairly

0:24:37.280 --> 0:24:41.320
<v Speaker 13>kind of headed towards you know, the recession camp. However,

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:44.639
<v Speaker 13>you know, the timing of which is uncertain. So ultimately,

0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:48.240
<v Speaker 13>the tightening of monetary policy conditions in the form of

0:24:48.359 --> 0:24:51.040
<v Speaker 13>rates are likely going to be the driver of the

0:24:51.200 --> 0:24:52.480
<v Speaker 13>en macro result.

0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:55.040
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, but it does feel like we've been talking about

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:58.760
<v Speaker 5>a potential recession for quite some time. With that call,

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:00.920
<v Speaker 5>I guess, kind of what are we ignoring or what's

0:25:00.960 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 5>different this time than it had been for really the

0:25:04.040 --> 0:25:04.760
<v Speaker 5>past year.

0:25:06.280 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 13>Well, I think the big difference is going to be

0:25:09.359 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 13>just the passage of time, and let me kind of

0:25:11.359 --> 0:25:13.879
<v Speaker 13>explain what that will explain what that means. You know,

0:25:13.920 --> 0:25:17.000
<v Speaker 13>if we look back to twenty twenty, what happened, We

0:25:17.119 --> 0:25:21.800
<v Speaker 13>had such a big refinancing opportunity for individuals as well

0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:24.280
<v Speaker 13>as companies in terms of kind of what the balance

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:28.600
<v Speaker 13>you look like. Unfortunately that you know, you're you're deferring

0:25:28.680 --> 0:25:32.359
<v Speaker 13>kind of those those larger interest pains out into the future.

0:25:32.400 --> 0:25:35.320
<v Speaker 13>But as companies have to come back and refinance those issues,

0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:39.200
<v Speaker 13>you know, it does start to dig into growth outlooks.

0:25:39.280 --> 0:25:41.240
<v Speaker 13>And I think you're actually seeing a case study on

0:25:41.280 --> 0:25:44.479
<v Speaker 13>this in the utility sector right now. Look at next

0:25:44.520 --> 0:25:48.240
<v Speaker 13>Steir Energy as an example of kind of reducing forward

0:25:48.320 --> 0:25:52.000
<v Speaker 13>growth as a result of the higher interest rate environment.

0:25:52.359 --> 0:25:55.160
<v Speaker 13>It just essentially costs more to fund the projects that

0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:57.719
<v Speaker 13>they need to grow, and you know, that's just a

0:25:57.720 --> 0:26:00.240
<v Speaker 13>case study for what's likely to unfold the higher the

0:26:00.280 --> 0:26:02.560
<v Speaker 13>longer that rate state and it's kind of higher rate environment.

0:26:03.640 --> 0:26:06.360
<v Speaker 8>Is it the defensive shares that we need to focus

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:06.840
<v Speaker 8>on now?

0:26:08.640 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 13>Well, ultimately, defensive parts of the market you are going

0:26:12.320 --> 0:26:14.720
<v Speaker 13>to have their time to shine in terms of the

0:26:14.760 --> 0:26:18.720
<v Speaker 13>market cycle. But certainly defensive parts of the market that

0:26:18.760 --> 0:26:23.000
<v Speaker 13>are rate sensitive, like utilities, are feeling the pain right now.

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:26.840
<v Speaker 5>And I know you called out wages being something you're

0:26:26.920 --> 0:26:28.840
<v Speaker 5>keeping an eye on and think that you know it

0:26:28.960 --> 0:26:32.080
<v Speaker 5>is going to have kind of a higher impact on

0:26:32.160 --> 0:26:33.080
<v Speaker 5>what lies ahead.

0:26:33.720 --> 0:26:36.240
<v Speaker 6>What's the thinking behind that? Why are you focused on wages?

0:26:37.840 --> 0:26:40.000
<v Speaker 13>Well, ultimately we think wages are kind of the last

0:26:40.080 --> 0:26:44.080
<v Speaker 13>kind of standing component of the inflation equation that the

0:26:44.080 --> 0:26:47.920
<v Speaker 13>FED is fighting against. We have a hard time seeing

0:26:47.960 --> 0:26:51.480
<v Speaker 13>and I think the FED likely would agree with this,

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.879
<v Speaker 13>that you know, for sustainable move lower to the fedes

0:26:54.920 --> 0:26:57.439
<v Speaker 13>two percent goal, wages have to be a part of

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:01.520
<v Speaker 13>a part of that picture and age environment of four

0:27:01.520 --> 0:27:03.240
<v Speaker 13>and a half percent year in the ear, even though

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:06.480
<v Speaker 13>it's it's falling and kind of getting down underneath, the

0:27:06.520 --> 0:27:09.800
<v Speaker 13>Fed's kind of four percent tolerance level still is not

0:27:09.840 --> 0:27:11.879
<v Speaker 13>going to cut it as it relates to kind of

0:27:11.920 --> 0:27:15.400
<v Speaker 13>the services component of the inflation equation. You know, John

0:27:15.400 --> 0:27:19.640
<v Speaker 13>Williams talked about this in a Bloomberg interview a week

0:27:19.720 --> 0:27:21.760
<v Speaker 13>or two ago and talked about a three point two

0:27:21.840 --> 0:27:25.359
<v Speaker 13>to three point five percent wage rate that's kind of

0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:29.520
<v Speaker 13>being necessary for the Fed hitting their two percent goal.

0:27:29.680 --> 0:27:31.320
<v Speaker 13>We're a ways from that today. And if you look

0:27:31.359 --> 0:27:35.679
<v Speaker 13>through history, you sustainable moves move lower moves lower in

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 13>wages typically only happen, you know, when when recessions occur.

0:27:40.119 --> 0:27:43.160
<v Speaker 13>So we think that ultimately, what's likely to take place

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:44.000
<v Speaker 13>again this cycle?

0:27:44.840 --> 0:27:47.400
<v Speaker 8>Where is the team allocating assets at this point?

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:50.960
<v Speaker 13>You know, we've taken our time over the last couple

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:54.320
<v Speaker 13>of years leaning into you know, upward moves and rates,

0:27:54.680 --> 0:27:58.359
<v Speaker 13>and you know, this leg up in rates over the

0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 13>last three months has been no eccepstion'. We've recently, for

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:04.720
<v Speaker 13>the first time in the last seven years, been over

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.200
<v Speaker 13>We just moved to an overweight position in fixed income.

0:28:07.280 --> 0:28:11.080
<v Speaker 13>But that's been you know, a two to three year

0:28:11.480 --> 0:28:14.639
<v Speaker 13>process for our team. You know, we do like the

0:28:14.680 --> 0:28:17.800
<v Speaker 13>real interest rate environment that we're getting as fixed income investors.

0:28:18.520 --> 0:28:21.159
<v Speaker 13>You know, real rates on the tenure are you know,

0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:23.360
<v Speaker 13>above two point three percent that's the highest that we've

0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:26.360
<v Speaker 13>seen since two thousand and seven. We think that there's

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:31.160
<v Speaker 13>multiple ways for individual investors to have an advantaced position here.

0:28:31.359 --> 0:28:34.400
<v Speaker 13>You know, either through a recessionary outcome where the FED

0:28:34.480 --> 0:28:38.960
<v Speaker 13>responds with lower real interest rates, or if inflation does

0:28:39.000 --> 0:28:41.360
<v Speaker 13>continue to move lower, you know, those real rates are

0:28:41.400 --> 0:28:42.920
<v Speaker 13>still attractive in an your environment.

0:28:43.360 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 8>Hey, how tough has your job become? I mean, do

0:28:45.520 --> 0:28:48.400
<v Speaker 8>you have customers saying, look, Matt, I can you know,

0:28:48.520 --> 0:28:52.440
<v Speaker 8>stick money in a Marcus account and have absolutely no

0:28:52.560 --> 0:28:56.000
<v Speaker 8>fees associated with that and still get a pretty decent

0:28:56.040 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 8>return on my money or even you know, a short

0:28:59.760 --> 0:29:01.640
<v Speaker 8>term treasuries bills.

0:29:03.520 --> 0:29:05.800
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, that's a common conversation we're having, and not so

0:29:05.880 --> 0:29:09.480
<v Speaker 13>much in terms of, you know, whether or not it

0:29:09.520 --> 0:29:12.920
<v Speaker 13>makes sense to have a more diversified portfolio, but more

0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 13>within the conversation about how should we be allocating within

0:29:16.080 --> 0:29:20.200
<v Speaker 13>fixed income. You know, it's really comfortable to sit in

0:29:20.240 --> 0:29:22.520
<v Speaker 13>the front end of the curve not deal with any

0:29:22.600 --> 0:29:25.280
<v Speaker 13>volatilities it relates to movements and rates, or movements and

0:29:25.320 --> 0:29:28.600
<v Speaker 13>credit spreads. But we do think that duration is a

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:34.720
<v Speaker 13>wonderful diversification tool in one's investment portfolio, particularly just because

0:29:34.760 --> 0:29:38.320
<v Speaker 13>of the refinancing risk. You know, certainly it was comfortable

0:29:38.320 --> 0:29:39.760
<v Speaker 13>to sit in the front end of the curve in

0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:43.720
<v Speaker 13>two thousand and six, two thousand and seven. However, you

0:29:43.760 --> 0:29:45.680
<v Speaker 13>know when you went to kind of go back if

0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:47.960
<v Speaker 13>you were sitting into your notes as an example, and

0:29:48.720 --> 0:29:51.000
<v Speaker 13>buy those again come two thousand and nine, it was

0:29:51.040 --> 0:29:54.520
<v Speaker 13>a very very painful conversation saying, yeah, those five percent

0:29:54.640 --> 0:29:57.040
<v Speaker 13>rates are gone. You know, you have to lock those

0:29:57.040 --> 0:30:00.440
<v Speaker 13>in over longer periods of time to have that kind

0:30:00.440 --> 0:30:04.719
<v Speaker 13>of a great diversification asset within one's investment portfolio. So

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:10.400
<v Speaker 13>the conversation is more about diversification and kind of walking in,

0:30:10.960 --> 0:30:13.600
<v Speaker 13>you know, truly locking in higher for longer within your portfolio,

0:30:13.680 --> 0:30:16.160
<v Speaker 13>versus just avoiding volatility at all costs.

0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:19.520
<v Speaker 5>Matt, we had Jamie Diamond say, when asked if rates

0:30:19.520 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 5>can go to seven percent, the answer is yes.

0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:22.560
<v Speaker 6>Is that something you agree with?

0:30:22.600 --> 0:30:24.400
<v Speaker 5>And where are you going to be putting money to

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:30.600
<v Speaker 5>work if we see rates getting into the seven percent range, Well, I.

0:30:30.520 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 13>Think it's possible in financial markets. You know, I think

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:38.400
<v Speaker 13>that's probably more of a tail risk scenario. But you know,

0:30:38.480 --> 0:30:41.400
<v Speaker 13>if if we do see that happen, I think we

0:30:41.440 --> 0:30:44.440
<v Speaker 13>would be aggressive buyers of just pure rate. In that environment,

0:30:44.480 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 13>we would avoid credit.

0:30:46.760 --> 0:30:51.520
<v Speaker 8>Welcome to the fourth quarter, By the way, what the

0:30:51.560 --> 0:30:54.680
<v Speaker 8>comparison's got to be a lot easier. But what's what's

0:30:54.720 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 8>your expectation as we move forward on the earnings front?

0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:03.880
<v Speaker 13>You know, the earnings inside of the picture I think

0:31:03.960 --> 0:31:06.880
<v Speaker 13>is a tough one to figure out right here. You know,

0:31:07.080 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 13>we've been in a decelerating, rined growth environment. We dipped

0:31:10.160 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 13>into negative territory in twenty twenty three. But as you

0:31:13.400 --> 0:31:15.200
<v Speaker 13>look into what's King of baked in in terms of

0:31:15.360 --> 0:31:20.600
<v Speaker 13>consensus expectations for the fourth quarter and especially into the

0:31:20.640 --> 0:31:23.360
<v Speaker 13>front half of twenty twenty four, there's a natural acceleration

0:31:23.440 --> 0:31:26.040
<v Speaker 13>of earnings growth kind of coming back into the s

0:31:26.080 --> 0:31:28.640
<v Speaker 13>and P five hundred, you know, kind of capping off

0:31:28.720 --> 0:31:30.840
<v Speaker 13>with a second quarter of twenty twenty four calling for

0:31:30.960 --> 0:31:33.560
<v Speaker 13>double digit earnence growth. You know, I kind of scratched

0:31:33.560 --> 0:31:36.360
<v Speaker 13>my head at that number. You know, that would be

0:31:36.440 --> 0:31:42.760
<v Speaker 13>one of the kind of kin of abnormal abnormal situations

0:31:42.800 --> 0:31:46.240
<v Speaker 13>that I've ever seen, where the economy naturally re accelerates

0:31:46.280 --> 0:31:50.120
<v Speaker 13>in the face of significant monetary policy tightening. I guess

0:31:50.160 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 13>it's possible, but for me, I think I'm skeptical, and

0:31:53.480 --> 0:31:54.920
<v Speaker 13>you know, to me, I think it's kind of more

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:57.479
<v Speaker 13>of the same what we've se been seeing late lately,

0:31:57.520 --> 0:31:59.959
<v Speaker 13>where companies are going to continue to try and put

0:32:00.000 --> 0:32:03.480
<v Speaker 13>price down on consumers and consumers are pushing back with

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:06.320
<v Speaker 13>kind of unit volume declines for a lot of companies.

0:32:06.480 --> 0:32:10.120
<v Speaker 13>So yeah, I question how long that dynamic can persist.

0:32:10.800 --> 0:32:14.040
<v Speaker 13>Certainly the consensus is calling for that as we pushed

0:32:14.080 --> 0:32:17.800
<v Speaker 13>into twenty twenty four, but you know, we're cautious with that,

0:32:18.240 --> 0:32:22.000
<v Speaker 13>with that consensus estimate, and so it's another reason why

0:32:22.000 --> 0:32:24.960
<v Speaker 13>we prefer fixed income over traditional equities at the margin.

0:32:25.000 --> 0:32:28.680
<v Speaker 8>Here, Matt, A pleasure, appreciate it. Matt Stuckey, Senior portfolio

0:32:28.680 --> 0:32:31.040
<v Speaker 8>manager at Northwestern Mutual.

0:32:31.440 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the tape Can's our live program, Bloomberg

0:32:34.640 --> 0:32:38.240
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0:32:38.280 --> 0:32:40.360
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0:32:40.080 --> 0:32:41.520
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0:32:41.560 --> 0:32:44.360
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0:32:44.400 --> 0:32:49.360
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0:32:50.480 --> 0:32:53.800
<v Speaker 8>President Biden urging house speaker McCarthy to follow up quickly

0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:57.560
<v Speaker 8>with funding for Ukraine this comes just hours they up

0:32:57.560 --> 0:33:01.520
<v Speaker 8>to Congress pants that spending bill without funding for Ukraine,

0:33:01.760 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 8>and we say hello to our next guest, ed Price,

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:07.400
<v Speaker 8>a senior fellow at NYU and a principal at ERKO

0:33:07.960 --> 0:33:10.960
<v Speaker 8>joining us. Now, how is this being received?

0:33:11.520 --> 0:33:14.400
<v Speaker 14>Well, personally, I think it's insane. You know, remember when

0:33:14.440 --> 0:33:16.200
<v Speaker 14>I was growing up, the Russians were going to kill

0:33:16.280 --> 0:33:18.200
<v Speaker 14>us at the drop of a hat, and now we

0:33:18.240 --> 0:33:20.080
<v Speaker 14>seem to have an opportunity to kill bad guys with

0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:21.800
<v Speaker 14>pennies on the dollar and we don't want to do it.

0:33:22.800 --> 0:33:25.200
<v Speaker 14>I mean, does that strike you guys as normal? I

0:33:25.240 --> 0:33:28.080
<v Speaker 14>mean I thought the Republicans at least used to be

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:29.000
<v Speaker 14>into that sort of thing.

0:33:29.840 --> 0:33:33.800
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, And at this point, what is your outlook in

0:33:33.880 --> 0:33:36.760
<v Speaker 8>terms of whether or not this is actually to get

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:40.160
<v Speaker 8>reintroduced and there will be funding for Ukraine?

0:33:40.840 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 14>I think it has to be. I think that if

0:33:43.600 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 14>the Democrats, if the Biden administration were to come to

0:33:46.560 --> 0:33:49.240
<v Speaker 14>any sort of deal with the House Republicans that did

0:33:49.280 --> 0:33:52.680
<v Speaker 14>not include funding for Ukraine, they have to give up

0:33:52.680 --> 0:33:56.520
<v Speaker 14>their entire democracies versus autocracies foreign policy. Then that's basically

0:33:56.520 --> 0:33:59.280
<v Speaker 14>the Biden doctrine, I would argue, So they have to

0:33:59.280 --> 0:34:02.920
<v Speaker 14>do it. But again I'm a bit surprised and slightly dismayed,

0:34:02.960 --> 0:34:05.160
<v Speaker 14>if I'm being honest with you.

0:34:04.440 --> 0:34:07.600
<v Speaker 8>You just recently wrote a paper just to switch gears

0:34:07.640 --> 0:34:13.040
<v Speaker 8>for a moment. Forget about the bricks, what about the VIPs.

0:34:13.560 --> 0:34:16.880
<v Speaker 8>First of all, we have to, with the apologies to

0:34:17.440 --> 0:34:20.080
<v Speaker 8>Jim O'Neill, you and Neil explain what the bricks are

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:23.399
<v Speaker 8>and how they've been replaced by the VIPs.

0:34:24.000 --> 0:34:27.040
<v Speaker 14>So Jim O'Neil, in his genius about twenty years ago,

0:34:27.120 --> 0:34:31.320
<v Speaker 14>came up with this very famous acronym brick, which was Brazil, Russia, India,

0:34:31.360 --> 0:34:34.440
<v Speaker 14>and China. Later South Africa joined in to make the bricks.

0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 14>And his argument was, well, if you look at long

0:34:36.560 --> 0:34:39.839
<v Speaker 14>term GDP trends in those countries, eventually they will take

0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:43.719
<v Speaker 14>over the so called West. That's kind of happening, which

0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:46.719
<v Speaker 14>is great in my bid for acronym fame. The other

0:34:46.840 --> 0:34:49.040
<v Speaker 14>day I said, well, hold on the second, the bricks

0:34:49.040 --> 0:34:51.280
<v Speaker 14>are a thing. We know about the bricks. What about

0:34:51.280 --> 0:34:55.400
<v Speaker 14>the VIPs. Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia. These are

0:34:55.400 --> 0:34:58.120
<v Speaker 14>the countries Uncle Sam really needs to get on board

0:34:58.320 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 14>if he wants to win the twenty first century.

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:03.760
<v Speaker 8>Alright, let's start with Vietnam, because I will argue that Vietnam,

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:08.600
<v Speaker 8>once an enemy of the United States, is now one

0:35:08.600 --> 0:35:09.960
<v Speaker 8>of our best friends in the region.

0:35:10.320 --> 0:35:12.239
<v Speaker 14>That's true. I mean, I would argue that Vietnam is

0:35:12.280 --> 0:35:15.160
<v Speaker 14>never our enemy. If we're thinking about South Vietnam, the

0:35:15.160 --> 0:35:18.799
<v Speaker 14>country as was, and it was actually the communist north. Right,

0:35:18.840 --> 0:35:21.360
<v Speaker 14>Maybe that's nitpicking that was the enemy, but that actually

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.840
<v Speaker 14>makes your point even better because now the communists in

0:35:23.880 --> 0:35:27.560
<v Speaker 14>Hanoi are friends with Uncle Sam. So you might say, Look,

0:35:27.640 --> 0:35:30.600
<v Speaker 14>Vietnam is a slam dunk, but it is still nominally

0:35:30.680 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 14>a communist country. They've seriously got beef with China, but

0:35:34.000 --> 0:35:36.680
<v Speaker 14>that doesn't necessarily mean that they're at the level of treaty.

0:35:36.680 --> 0:35:40.480
<v Speaker 5>Ally in India somehow is both in the bricks and

0:35:40.520 --> 0:35:41.400
<v Speaker 5>also in the VIPs.

0:35:41.520 --> 0:35:43.080
<v Speaker 14>Yes, I knew you guys would point that out. That's

0:35:43.160 --> 0:35:45.360
<v Speaker 14>very smart. Yes, India is in the bricks. It's a

0:35:45.400 --> 0:35:48.800
<v Speaker 14>quincidential member of the bricks. But India also behaves however

0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:51.400
<v Speaker 14>India wants to behave. This is the non aligned tradition,

0:35:51.880 --> 0:35:54.239
<v Speaker 14>and it's a member of the quad as well as

0:35:54.280 --> 0:35:56.759
<v Speaker 14>accepting Russian arms imports.

0:35:56.960 --> 0:35:57.600
<v Speaker 9>So I think.

0:35:57.480 --> 0:36:00.000
<v Speaker 14>India is to play for, and India is important because

0:36:00.120 --> 0:36:02.720
<v Speaker 14>it essentially has the deciding vote in World War iie,

0:36:02.840 --> 0:36:04.200
<v Speaker 14>how big it is and who wins.

0:36:04.560 --> 0:36:06.680
<v Speaker 8>What does the Philippines have for us?

0:36:07.320 --> 0:36:10.520
<v Speaker 14>Well, the Philippines is essentially a massive aircraft carrier. I

0:36:10.520 --> 0:36:13.200
<v Speaker 14>mean this is the Chinese want the Spratley's, they want

0:36:13.200 --> 0:36:14.520
<v Speaker 14>the nine dash line.

0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:17.719
<v Speaker 8>I will argue that does not come cheaply because mister

0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:22.600
<v Speaker 8>marcos As did his father charged as exorbitant fees to

0:36:22.640 --> 0:36:23.799
<v Speaker 8>the United States for there.

0:36:24.440 --> 0:36:27.160
<v Speaker 14>Yes, I think that's probably true. And there was a

0:36:27.200 --> 0:36:29.840
<v Speaker 14>time in American history where we might have annexed the

0:36:29.840 --> 0:36:33.799
<v Speaker 14>Philippines outright and chose not to. So we've decided not

0:36:33.880 --> 0:36:35.960
<v Speaker 14>to be a formal empire. And the cost of that

0:36:36.120 --> 0:36:38.719
<v Speaker 14>is that you have to get on board with local politics,

0:36:38.800 --> 0:36:41.799
<v Speaker 14>you have to pay people to get on board with

0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:43.279
<v Speaker 14>your vision of the world, and you have to keep

0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:44.600
<v Speaker 14>up soft power engagements.

0:36:44.680 --> 0:36:47.319
<v Speaker 5>Right, And how does the US get kind of on

0:36:47.400 --> 0:36:49.799
<v Speaker 5>better terms with Saudi Arabia? Is that just through you know,

0:36:49.920 --> 0:36:52.840
<v Speaker 5>golf partnerships or letting them by sporting teams.

0:36:53.360 --> 0:36:56.120
<v Speaker 14>Well, that's part of it, for sure, But I think

0:36:56.160 --> 0:36:59.280
<v Speaker 14>that really and truly the Saladis needs security. The reason

0:36:59.280 --> 0:37:01.680
<v Speaker 14>the Saudis and his rollies are willing to sit around

0:37:01.719 --> 0:37:06.520
<v Speaker 14>a table is their common distaste for Iran, and I

0:37:06.560 --> 0:37:09.880
<v Speaker 14>think that if we provide the Saudis essentially with modern

0:37:10.440 --> 0:37:14.640
<v Speaker 14>defense weapons, modern defense systems, they will be more inclined

0:37:14.680 --> 0:37:17.400
<v Speaker 14>to help us out with oil supply problems should the

0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:20.360
<v Speaker 14>Russians later down the line decide to restrict oil supply.

0:37:20.719 --> 0:37:29.040
<v Speaker 8>Can these countries, especially with Vietnam, effectively replace China as

0:37:29.120 --> 0:37:31.960
<v Speaker 8>the place where the United States manufacturers go to get

0:37:32.000 --> 0:37:34.440
<v Speaker 8>the cheap labor and stuff produced well.

0:37:34.520 --> 0:37:37.960
<v Speaker 14>So this is a multi trillion dollar question, right. I

0:37:38.000 --> 0:37:42.040
<v Speaker 14>think the assumption in the back of American business people's

0:37:42.120 --> 0:37:45.839
<v Speaker 14>minds is that there is a place to replace China.

0:37:45.880 --> 0:37:48.480
<v Speaker 14>There's some place in the world, a combination maybe of Vietnam,

0:37:48.560 --> 0:37:52.640
<v Speaker 14>Mexico and so on for near shuring, friends shoring, and

0:37:52.719 --> 0:37:55.839
<v Speaker 14>so on. I think the problem is that the disruption

0:37:56.200 --> 0:37:59.719
<v Speaker 14>entailed between the United States and China decoupling or even

0:38:01.000 --> 0:38:04.440
<v Speaker 14>effectively shrinks the oval size of the global economy. It's

0:38:04.520 --> 0:38:07.200
<v Speaker 14>hugely disruptive. So I don't think there's ever going to

0:38:07.200 --> 0:38:10.000
<v Speaker 14>be a one for one replacement. Countries such as India

0:38:10.000 --> 0:38:10.800
<v Speaker 14>I don't think that works.

0:38:12.520 --> 0:38:17.239
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, And in terms of the other countries, what is

0:38:17.280 --> 0:38:20.279
<v Speaker 8>the future of the relationships between the United States and

0:38:20.320 --> 0:38:24.160
<v Speaker 8>these other countries as you can tell, well, I'm hoping

0:38:24.200 --> 0:38:27.320
<v Speaker 8>that is it based on manufacturing or something else.

0:38:28.239 --> 0:38:33.279
<v Speaker 14>I think ultimately people are considering two possible futures. One

0:38:33.520 --> 0:38:36.760
<v Speaker 14>is some sort of continuation of Pax Americana orbeit damaged,

0:38:37.200 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 14>and another is some sort of Chinese hegemony. And whereas

0:38:42.160 --> 0:38:44.319
<v Speaker 14>for the last maybe twenty years, people were slightly more

0:38:44.320 --> 0:38:48.680
<v Speaker 14>comfortable with China rising as this commercial power, now I

0:38:48.719 --> 0:38:52.560
<v Speaker 14>think some regional players, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines scratching

0:38:52.560 --> 0:38:55.600
<v Speaker 14>their heads and thinking, well, maybe we wouldn't quite like

0:38:55.680 --> 0:38:58.080
<v Speaker 14>that as much as the international trading system that we

0:38:58.080 --> 0:38:59.200
<v Speaker 14>have now led by Uncle.

0:38:59.000 --> 0:39:01.160
<v Speaker 6>Sam going for a longer acronym.

0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:03.920
<v Speaker 5>What kind of countries could have been playing for a

0:39:03.960 --> 0:39:06.680
<v Speaker 5>position in the VIPPS basket that you built.

0:39:06.480 --> 0:39:08.719
<v Speaker 14>Right, Well, I mean it only had space for four,

0:39:08.800 --> 0:39:12.319
<v Speaker 14>so I had to mold the analysis around the acronym.

0:39:12.760 --> 0:39:14.840
<v Speaker 14>I think countries in the global South are going to

0:39:14.840 --> 0:39:19.320
<v Speaker 14>be important. I think Mexico's already on board. Brazil is huge,

0:39:19.440 --> 0:39:22.120
<v Speaker 14>but again that's firmly in the bricks. I mean, you

0:39:22.120 --> 0:39:25.040
<v Speaker 14>can see what they're doing with the goal backed currency project.

0:39:25.440 --> 0:39:27.759
<v Speaker 14>I mean, ultimately, ultimately it would be nice to have

0:39:27.800 --> 0:39:30.279
<v Speaker 14>Russia on board. And I think that one of the

0:39:30.719 --> 0:39:33.000
<v Speaker 14>you know, to sort of echo Vladimir Putin's words, it

0:39:33.040 --> 0:39:35.200
<v Speaker 14>wasn't the collapse of the Soviet Union that was the

0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:39.320
<v Speaker 14>greatest strategy of geopolitics in the twentieth century. In my money,

0:39:39.360 --> 0:39:41.560
<v Speaker 14>it was the fact that we didn't then give a

0:39:41.719 --> 0:39:44.920
<v Speaker 14>Marshall Plan two point zero two Russia and sufficiently get

0:39:44.920 --> 0:39:47.760
<v Speaker 14>them on board with the Western system, you know, maybe

0:39:47.760 --> 0:39:51.840
<v Speaker 14>even NATO membership, maybe even EU membership. So ultimately, I

0:39:51.840 --> 0:39:53.520
<v Speaker 14>think the player is to try and get Russia back

0:39:53.520 --> 0:39:54.160
<v Speaker 14>into the system.

0:39:54.640 --> 0:39:57.000
<v Speaker 8>And nice to see again. Thanks for rescued by the studios.

0:39:57.000 --> 0:40:00.120
<v Speaker 8>We appreciate it. Ed Price, senior fellow at NYU, the

0:40:00.160 --> 0:40:04.840
<v Speaker 8>principal at Ergo on the geopolitical risks and the latest

0:40:04.920 --> 0:40:06.000
<v Speaker 8>research that he's doing.

0:40:06.200 --> 0:40:09.360
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the tape Can't Our Live program Bloomberg

0:40:09.400 --> 0:40:13.000
<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:40:13.040 --> 0:40:15.000
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0:40:14.960 --> 0:40:16.279
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0:40:16.320 --> 0:40:19.120
<v Speaker 7>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa, from our

0:40:19.160 --> 0:40:23.520
<v Speaker 7>flagship New York station, just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

0:40:23.239 --> 0:40:28.440
<v Speaker 3>Thirty with an investment outlook is Evanna della Vesca. She

0:40:28.520 --> 0:40:31.240
<v Speaker 3>is founder in CIO at Spear invest They describe theirs

0:40:31.760 --> 0:40:35.320
<v Speaker 3>them as a fundamental asset manager and an etf issuer

0:40:35.360 --> 0:40:39.680
<v Speaker 3>specializing investments in industrial technology value chain. So I'm curious

0:40:39.960 --> 0:40:41.920
<v Speaker 3>to see what her take is on the market. She

0:40:42.000 --> 0:40:44.600
<v Speaker 3>joins us here in studio, Nice to have you here

0:40:44.640 --> 0:40:45.600
<v Speaker 3>with us. How are you?

0:40:45.640 --> 0:40:48.120
<v Speaker 4>Thanks for having me on, Carol, Hey remind our world.

0:40:48.160 --> 0:40:50.360
<v Speaker 3>I did the description off your website, but to be honest,

0:40:50.360 --> 0:40:52.960
<v Speaker 3>tell us about what you guys do and what you

0:40:53.000 --> 0:40:54.560
<v Speaker 3>focus on well.

0:40:54.600 --> 0:40:57.719
<v Speaker 15>As you mentioned, Carol, we focus on B too B technology,

0:40:57.760 --> 0:41:00.200
<v Speaker 15>and our niche focus allows us to really have a

0:41:00.200 --> 0:41:04.480
<v Speaker 15>good sense of what's going on in tech, specifically in

0:41:06.520 --> 0:41:09.880
<v Speaker 15>B to B business to business where companies are selling

0:41:09.920 --> 0:41:13.560
<v Speaker 15>products to other companies. So we are pretty positive on

0:41:13.600 --> 0:41:15.880
<v Speaker 15>the cycle. We think we're at the bottom of the cycle.

0:41:15.920 --> 0:41:20.000
<v Speaker 15>What we're seeing today is that hardware bottom, and we're

0:41:20.040 --> 0:41:23.920
<v Speaker 15>just in the early innings of investments of hardware investments.

0:41:24.040 --> 0:41:26.080
<v Speaker 15>We think this is going to be a pretty big

0:41:26.200 --> 0:41:29.719
<v Speaker 15>data center investment cycle ahead of US, and that's going

0:41:29.800 --> 0:41:32.920
<v Speaker 15>to really drive the rest of technology out of this downturn.

0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:35.480
<v Speaker 5>So continuing to see more upside for a company like

0:41:35.520 --> 0:41:38.480
<v Speaker 5>in Video, which already has tripled this year and is

0:41:38.960 --> 0:41:41.719
<v Speaker 5>one of the best performers in.

0:41:41.239 --> 0:41:45.520
<v Speaker 15>The US, absolutely, So what's happened to in Vidia for example,

0:41:45.840 --> 0:41:48.920
<v Speaker 15>as we saw numbers bottom and increase of the bottom,

0:41:49.200 --> 0:41:52.680
<v Speaker 15>the stock is just getting cheaper and cheaper on traditional

0:41:52.760 --> 0:41:55.319
<v Speaker 15>valuation metrics. So we believe what we're going to see

0:41:55.320 --> 0:42:00.160
<v Speaker 15>with Nvidia. Historically the focus has been growth investors and

0:42:00.200 --> 0:42:03.000
<v Speaker 15>people trying to capture the AI hype, but as we

0:42:03.080 --> 0:42:07.280
<v Speaker 15>go forward, really there is fundamental support from the numbers here,

0:42:07.400 --> 0:42:10.440
<v Speaker 15>So we believe that as you go forward, there's going

0:42:10.520 --> 0:42:12.719
<v Speaker 15>to be value investors that will be looking at this

0:42:13.760 --> 0:42:14.520
<v Speaker 15>at the stock.

0:42:14.520 --> 0:42:17.200
<v Speaker 6>Talking about AI, talking about data centers, while though.

0:42:17.080 --> 0:42:19.400
<v Speaker 4>The event video is value stock, value stock.

0:42:19.480 --> 0:42:22.360
<v Speaker 5>That's one point one trillion dollars more upside after a

0:42:22.400 --> 0:42:26.920
<v Speaker 5>triple different world arm the biggest IPO in the world

0:42:27.000 --> 0:42:29.360
<v Speaker 5>this year, talking up a lot of AI soft.

0:42:29.239 --> 0:42:31.520
<v Speaker 6>Bank town talking up their partnerships within VideA.

0:42:31.840 --> 0:42:34.440
<v Speaker 5>Is that a company that you see upside with alongside

0:42:34.440 --> 0:42:36.520
<v Speaker 5>the likes of an Invidia or an AMD.

0:42:36.840 --> 0:42:39.600
<v Speaker 15>So we don't own ARM at the moment, they are

0:42:39.760 --> 0:42:43.080
<v Speaker 15>indirectly an AI play. But what I would question investors

0:42:43.160 --> 0:42:45.279
<v Speaker 15>is that over time everything is going to be an

0:42:45.280 --> 0:42:48.480
<v Speaker 15>AI play. Right, So you're going to have most applications

0:42:48.560 --> 0:42:51.080
<v Speaker 15>have AI embedded in them, and most products will be

0:42:51.160 --> 0:42:55.320
<v Speaker 15>able to will be able to enable AI to run

0:42:55.400 --> 0:42:58.520
<v Speaker 15>on them. So over time, we believe ARM will benefit

0:42:58.560 --> 0:43:01.239
<v Speaker 15>from this trend, but it's not nearly as big of

0:43:01.280 --> 0:43:03.600
<v Speaker 15>a beneficiary as Nvidia would be.

0:43:03.680 --> 0:43:05.080
<v Speaker 4>At this point in time.

0:43:05.480 --> 0:43:07.960
<v Speaker 3>Do we think about the AI in the same vein

0:43:08.040 --> 0:43:09.760
<v Speaker 3>that we thought about going online?

0:43:09.920 --> 0:43:10.840
<v Speaker 4>Right in the Internet?

0:43:10.880 --> 0:43:13.799
<v Speaker 3>And at some point I remember having these conversations every

0:43:13.800 --> 0:43:15.200
<v Speaker 3>company is going to be an Internet play.

0:43:15.320 --> 0:43:16.800
<v Speaker 4>Well they're not even retail.

0:43:17.200 --> 0:43:20.200
<v Speaker 3>While online and mobile ordering and all that good stuff,

0:43:20.400 --> 0:43:23.600
<v Speaker 3>we still think about brick and mortar, And I'm just wondering, like,

0:43:24.719 --> 0:43:26.600
<v Speaker 3>can we think about them as the same thing. To

0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:28.640
<v Speaker 3>hear you say everything's going to be an AI play,

0:43:29.120 --> 0:43:31.920
<v Speaker 3>I just remember saying that about the Internet. Everything's going

0:43:31.920 --> 0:43:33.400
<v Speaker 3>to be an Internet play, and I don't know that

0:43:33.440 --> 0:43:34.640
<v Speaker 3>it's actually played out that way.

0:43:35.000 --> 0:43:37.400
<v Speaker 15>Well, that's an interesting point. So when I say everything

0:43:37.480 --> 0:43:39.959
<v Speaker 15>is going to be an AI play, AI will take

0:43:40.000 --> 0:43:42.720
<v Speaker 15>part in most of applications that we use. That doesn't

0:43:42.719 --> 0:43:45.560
<v Speaker 15>mean that every company is investable and every company will

0:43:45.600 --> 0:43:47.640
<v Speaker 15>offer value. So that's where we come in. We try

0:43:47.640 --> 0:43:50.880
<v Speaker 15>to look at the fundamentals, model out how much earnings

0:43:50.920 --> 0:43:54.400
<v Speaker 15>potential does each company have, where does that stand compared

0:43:54.440 --> 0:43:57.280
<v Speaker 15>to the street estimates, And we're really looking for capturing

0:43:57.320 --> 0:44:00.799
<v Speaker 15>alpha of opportunities where people are maybe seeing out on

0:44:01.200 --> 0:44:04.680
<v Speaker 15>or not understanding how they are related to AR or

0:44:04.680 --> 0:44:05.600
<v Speaker 15>how they're going to benefit.

0:44:05.640 --> 0:44:07.359
<v Speaker 3>Because I remember one of the ways of thinking about

0:44:07.360 --> 0:44:10.359
<v Speaker 3>the Internet play was like ups right, everybody's ordering, so

0:44:10.480 --> 0:44:12.719
<v Speaker 3>you know, very different. So how do you think about it?

0:44:12.760 --> 0:44:15.040
<v Speaker 3>Where do you think will be the best opportunities. Is

0:44:15.080 --> 0:44:17.600
<v Speaker 3>it somebody who's making the chips for the AI sector

0:44:17.719 --> 0:44:18.760
<v Speaker 3>or is it something else.

0:44:19.480 --> 0:44:23.040
<v Speaker 15>So what we see is opportunities across several layers of AI.

0:44:23.440 --> 0:44:26.000
<v Speaker 15>So the first layer is the hardware layer, which we

0:44:26.080 --> 0:44:30.240
<v Speaker 15>talked about, so that would be in VIDIMD, Marvel, basically

0:44:30.280 --> 0:44:33.400
<v Speaker 15>companies that not only offer GPUs but just broader data

0:44:33.440 --> 0:44:37.440
<v Speaker 15>center networking equipment as well. We still see those as

0:44:37.480 --> 0:44:40.879
<v Speaker 15>being in the early innings. The next layer of opportunity

0:44:41.320 --> 0:44:42.200
<v Speaker 15>will be in.

0:44:42.080 --> 0:44:44.240
<v Speaker 4>The data layer. So here you have a lot.

0:44:44.080 --> 0:44:47.960
<v Speaker 15>Of software companies that offer services in addition to the

0:44:48.000 --> 0:44:51.080
<v Speaker 15>cloud vendors that are also in this data layer. In

0:44:51.120 --> 0:44:54.680
<v Speaker 15>addition to them, they offer services such as data streaming,

0:44:55.600 --> 0:44:58.200
<v Speaker 15>enabling you to organize your data better. So this is

0:44:58.239 --> 0:45:00.319
<v Speaker 15>where we see a lot of opportunities right now because

0:45:00.320 --> 0:45:03.600
<v Speaker 15>they're not necessarily called AI and they're not necessarily seeing

0:45:03.680 --> 0:45:06.440
<v Speaker 15>the benefiting the numbers just yet because.

0:45:06.200 --> 0:45:07.160
<v Speaker 4>It's a little too early.

0:45:07.560 --> 0:45:09.919
<v Speaker 15>But over the cycle, we believe we're going to start

0:45:09.920 --> 0:45:12.000
<v Speaker 15>seeing it as we get into next year.

0:45:12.080 --> 0:45:13.120
<v Speaker 4>And it's your third layer.

0:45:13.360 --> 0:45:15.720
<v Speaker 15>And then the third layer would be the application layer.

0:45:15.880 --> 0:45:18.160
<v Speaker 15>And this would be like the application that go either

0:45:18.239 --> 0:45:23.000
<v Speaker 15>directly to businesses or directly to consumers. So an example

0:45:23.040 --> 0:45:27.239
<v Speaker 15>would be Chad GPT, an example would be Microsoft Office Copilot.

0:45:27.600 --> 0:45:31.600
<v Speaker 15>So these are the actual applications, and that's probably the

0:45:31.640 --> 0:45:34.680
<v Speaker 15>most uncertain layer because we're still trying to figure out

0:45:35.080 --> 0:45:37.640
<v Speaker 15>how much are consumers willing to pay, how much our

0:45:37.680 --> 0:45:39.719
<v Speaker 15>company is willing to pay for these products, how much

0:45:39.760 --> 0:45:42.320
<v Speaker 15>do they actually cost on the back end, because running

0:45:42.360 --> 0:45:44.759
<v Speaker 15>on GPUs is pretty costly. So this is where there

0:45:44.800 --> 0:45:46.719
<v Speaker 15>is the most uncertainty. There are going to be some

0:45:46.800 --> 0:45:49.680
<v Speaker 15>winners as well, But there's going to be some losers

0:45:49.680 --> 0:45:51.600
<v Speaker 15>as well, right, companies that are not going to be

0:45:51.680 --> 0:45:53.879
<v Speaker 15>able to make the business case work.

0:45:54.080 --> 0:45:56.439
<v Speaker 5>Well, when you're talking AI, you can't not talk about

0:45:56.480 --> 0:45:58.000
<v Speaker 5>the dot com bubble and one of those things that

0:45:58.040 --> 0:46:00.160
<v Speaker 5>you're mentioning though, and I've seen this being mentioned the

0:46:00.160 --> 0:46:03.400
<v Speaker 5>barecase against Nvidia. Cisco was building the Internet and was

0:46:03.440 --> 0:46:06.200
<v Speaker 5>going to be this behemit that made all the money,

0:46:06.200 --> 0:46:08.440
<v Speaker 5>but it was actually companies that were working on the

0:46:08.480 --> 0:46:10.360
<v Speaker 5>applications and actually benefiting from that.

0:46:10.880 --> 0:46:13.400
<v Speaker 6>I know you mentioned that's kind of in like, we

0:46:13.440 --> 0:46:14.680
<v Speaker 6>haven't scratched the surface of that.

0:46:14.800 --> 0:46:16.840
<v Speaker 5>But where are you seeing the money going to be

0:46:16.920 --> 0:46:19.799
<v Speaker 5>made in the longer term with AI being built out.

0:46:20.640 --> 0:46:23.560
<v Speaker 15>Well, we believe there is going to be opportunities across

0:46:23.640 --> 0:46:24.360
<v Speaker 15>all three layers.

0:46:24.440 --> 0:46:24.600
<v Speaker 9>Right.

0:46:24.680 --> 0:46:27.600
<v Speaker 15>So in the hardware layer, we're still in the early innings,

0:46:27.880 --> 0:46:31.000
<v Speaker 15>so it will take few years. Hardware is very cyclical,

0:46:31.239 --> 0:46:33.560
<v Speaker 15>so we'll go through cycles, right, So this is just

0:46:33.600 --> 0:46:36.920
<v Speaker 15>where the early innings of this cycle. It takes usually

0:46:36.960 --> 0:46:40.920
<v Speaker 15>several years for you to be putting the infrastructure in place,

0:46:41.239 --> 0:46:44.839
<v Speaker 15>and then at some point the valuations will reflect the

0:46:44.840 --> 0:46:47.359
<v Speaker 15>strength of the cycle and we would be looking to

0:46:47.440 --> 0:46:52.120
<v Speaker 15>exit those investments, and then the second layer, we're just starting, right,

0:46:52.200 --> 0:46:54.400
<v Speaker 15>So that's going to be a little later cycle if

0:46:54.440 --> 0:46:57.040
<v Speaker 15>you want to think about it from that perspective, and

0:46:57.080 --> 0:46:59.560
<v Speaker 15>it's going to be a lot less cyclical. There is

0:46:59.600 --> 0:47:02.200
<v Speaker 15>still clickality in it, right, like you will go through

0:47:02.680 --> 0:47:06.279
<v Speaker 15>natural down downturns in that layer as well. But it's

0:47:06.320 --> 0:47:09.279
<v Speaker 15>all about how much is priced in today versus how

0:47:09.360 --> 0:47:10.760
<v Speaker 15>much upside you see.

0:47:10.960 --> 0:47:12.880
<v Speaker 5>We're in a new month, we're in a new quarter,

0:47:13.200 --> 0:47:15.840
<v Speaker 5>earning seasons on the horizon, and Vidia has been the

0:47:15.840 --> 0:47:18.839
<v Speaker 5>big driver for this entire space. Can they live up

0:47:18.840 --> 0:47:21.399
<v Speaker 5>to your expectations in this next quarter and.

0:47:21.320 --> 0:47:23.399
<v Speaker 4>They report next November twenty First.

0:47:23.719 --> 0:47:26.680
<v Speaker 15>Well, we still see a lot of upside to the numbers.

0:47:26.840 --> 0:47:30.880
<v Speaker 15>The CEO mentioned that capacity is higher each quarter, so

0:47:30.920 --> 0:47:33.719
<v Speaker 15>it's increasing each quarter, so they should be able to

0:47:33.760 --> 0:47:38.720
<v Speaker 15>beat numbers. I think where investors may be mismodeling the numbers,

0:47:38.719 --> 0:47:41.400
<v Speaker 15>and this is why they keep beating by such large

0:47:41.640 --> 0:47:45.440
<v Speaker 15>margin is on the pricing side. So everybody's focused on volume,

0:47:45.520 --> 0:47:48.160
<v Speaker 15>everybody's focused on hey, are they really going to be

0:47:48.160 --> 0:47:51.760
<v Speaker 15>able to produce this many chips? The key is pricing

0:47:52.040 --> 0:47:54.960
<v Speaker 15>just because these new products the h one hundred is

0:47:55.000 --> 0:47:57.520
<v Speaker 15>priced at a two to three times premium to the

0:47:57.600 --> 0:48:02.719
<v Speaker 15>prior prior version. You're seeing a big uplift to earnings

0:48:03.480 --> 0:48:04.560
<v Speaker 15>from the pricing side.

0:48:04.680 --> 0:48:06.880
<v Speaker 3>Is there a tangential play off of this, like I

0:48:06.920 --> 0:48:09.600
<v Speaker 3>think about security, is that like what is the other

0:48:10.480 --> 0:48:12.759
<v Speaker 3>aspects that we're maybe not talking about that's kind of

0:48:12.760 --> 0:48:15.000
<v Speaker 3>AI pure but none the less important in this play.

0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:16.640
<v Speaker 4>And just get about forty five seconds.

0:48:17.000 --> 0:48:20.480
<v Speaker 15>Absolutely, so that cybersecurity would be in that second layer,

0:48:20.600 --> 0:48:23.239
<v Speaker 15>so the data layer, so as you're talking about how

0:48:23.239 --> 0:48:25.000
<v Speaker 15>to use the data, key will be how are you

0:48:25.040 --> 0:48:28.719
<v Speaker 15>going to secure this data as well? So we're going

0:48:28.800 --> 0:48:33.000
<v Speaker 15>to see a lot of companies first protecting applications on

0:48:33.040 --> 0:48:35.399
<v Speaker 15>the cloud, so cloud is a big team. And then

0:48:35.440 --> 0:48:39.120
<v Speaker 15>another big theme is companies trying to embed security in

0:48:39.160 --> 0:48:42.520
<v Speaker 15>their applications earlier in the process, so before they even

0:48:42.800 --> 0:48:44.880
<v Speaker 15>write the code. So those are the two big themes

0:48:44.920 --> 0:48:46.000
<v Speaker 15>in cybersecurity.

0:48:46.040 --> 0:48:48.760
<v Speaker 6>Are there any names in particular that you guys like, Yeah.

0:48:48.560 --> 0:48:50.840
<v Speaker 15>We like z scaler a lot, so that's a cloud

0:48:51.200 --> 0:48:54.719
<v Speaker 15>a networking play, and then we also like CrowdStrike. That

0:48:54.840 --> 0:48:59.040
<v Speaker 15>would be more going downstream into embedding cybersecurity in the applications.

0:48:59.160 --> 0:49:00.919
<v Speaker 3>Is there one AI company that we're not talking about

0:49:00.960 --> 0:49:03.480
<v Speaker 3>that we should and again just got about fifteen seconds.

0:49:03.760 --> 0:49:06.640
<v Speaker 15>Well, there's a lot we disclose all our holdings on

0:49:06.680 --> 0:49:08.120
<v Speaker 15>our website and some of them.

0:49:07.960 --> 0:49:10.040
<v Speaker 4>Are directed in the headlines that you think we should

0:49:10.080 --> 0:49:10.879
<v Speaker 4>be paying notes.

0:49:10.960 --> 0:49:14.160
<v Speaker 15>Cloud Flat would probably not be getting enough attention. They

0:49:14.160 --> 0:49:18.719
<v Speaker 15>are building out a very unique network of GPUs and

0:49:18.760 --> 0:49:22.239
<v Speaker 15>they're enabling companies to be able to run these GPUs

0:49:22.320 --> 0:49:25.040
<v Speaker 15>and use a lot of the lllms. So I think

0:49:25.080 --> 0:49:26.879
<v Speaker 15>that's one maybe that I would highlight.

0:49:26.600 --> 0:49:28.839
<v Speaker 3>Great perspective on AI and I feel like covered ground

0:49:28.840 --> 0:49:29.680
<v Speaker 3>that we don't always cover.

0:49:29.800 --> 0:49:30.319
<v Speaker 4>So thank you.

0:49:30.560 --> 0:49:33.680
<v Speaker 3>Evanad Levska. She's founder in CIO at Spear Invest joining

0:49:33.760 --> 0:49:34.760
<v Speaker 3>us here in studio.

0:49:35.160 --> 0:49:38.280
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the tape Can't our live program Bloomberg

0:49:38.360 --> 0:49:41.920
<v Speaker 7>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

0:49:42.000 --> 0:49:43.960
<v Speaker 7>tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

0:49:43.920 --> 0:49:45.239
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0:49:45.280 --> 0:49:48.080
<v Speaker 7>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:49:48.120 --> 0:49:53.160
<v Speaker 7>flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:49:53.880 --> 0:49:55.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, let's see what our next guest has to say

0:49:55.480 --> 0:49:57.920
<v Speaker 3>about kind of the macro environment that we are living in.

0:49:58.000 --> 0:50:01.560
<v Speaker 3>And what type of investments investors are really trending to

0:50:02.280 --> 0:50:04.799
<v Speaker 3>with us right now? Is Amanda Rabello, head of Extracker

0:50:04.920 --> 0:50:08.560
<v Speaker 3>sales US. I'm sure at the global asset manager DWS

0:50:08.640 --> 0:50:12.440
<v Speaker 3>Group Extrackers of course, the ETF brand owned by DWS,

0:50:12.560 --> 0:50:15.640
<v Speaker 3>which has roughly nine hundred billion in assets under a manager.

0:50:15.760 --> 0:50:18.279
<v Speaker 4>She joins us in studio. Hello, Hello, how are you?

0:50:18.480 --> 0:50:20.480
<v Speaker 4>I'm very well, thanks, How are you good? What do

0:50:20.520 --> 0:50:21.560
<v Speaker 4>you make of the macro environment?

0:50:21.600 --> 0:50:23.120
<v Speaker 3>We're kind of happy to start off a new quarter,

0:50:23.160 --> 0:50:25.040
<v Speaker 3>but it doesn't mean things won't carry over.

0:50:25.320 --> 0:50:26.080
<v Speaker 4>How do you see it?

0:50:26.400 --> 0:50:29.080
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, I think that what we feel is that FED

0:50:29.080 --> 0:50:31.560
<v Speaker 16>policy is being felt in the slowing housing market, and

0:50:31.560 --> 0:50:33.279
<v Speaker 16>we see that there are higher rates which are really

0:50:33.320 --> 0:50:35.399
<v Speaker 16>a reflection of real rates as opposed to like higher

0:50:35.400 --> 0:50:39.719
<v Speaker 16>inflation expectations. From the equity perspective, we're expecting by the

0:50:39.800 --> 0:50:41.360
<v Speaker 16>end of the year that SMP is going to be

0:50:41.360 --> 0:50:43.680
<v Speaker 16>at forty one hundred, and we do expect that there

0:50:43.719 --> 0:50:45.840
<v Speaker 16>will be a rebound into next year to around the

0:50:45.920 --> 0:50:48.320
<v Speaker 16>forty five hundred level, but it's a bit about months.

0:50:48.480 --> 0:50:50.399
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I was not expecting to go there.

0:50:51.520 --> 0:50:53.399
<v Speaker 16>So if you think you'll depressed, we're depressed as.

0:50:53.320 --> 0:50:57.680
<v Speaker 5>Well looking at different benchmarks. So you sp equal weighted,

0:50:57.880 --> 0:51:00.799
<v Speaker 5>we were saying turn negative for the year today. Is

0:51:00.840 --> 0:51:03.600
<v Speaker 5>that going to be trending more towards the downside given

0:51:03.600 --> 0:51:05.200
<v Speaker 5>that call? Or do you see the Magnificent seven some

0:51:05.280 --> 0:51:08.360
<v Speaker 5>of those bigger technology shares underperforming the rest of the

0:51:08.680 --> 0:51:09.600
<v Speaker 5>kind of market.

0:51:09.760 --> 0:51:10.000
<v Speaker 15>Yeah.

0:51:10.080 --> 0:51:12.240
<v Speaker 16>So actually equal weight is something that we've been speaking

0:51:12.280 --> 0:51:14.480
<v Speaker 16>to investors for a long time. We actually have a

0:51:14.480 --> 0:51:17.040
<v Speaker 16>product in Europe which is almost five years old, and

0:51:18.080 --> 0:51:19.640
<v Speaker 16>you know, I think that all of these kind of

0:51:19.640 --> 0:51:22.680
<v Speaker 16>sexual overweights are definitely something that investors are thinking about.

0:51:22.719 --> 0:51:25.040
<v Speaker 16>Only last week we actually had clients also asking us

0:51:25.040 --> 0:51:27.759
<v Speaker 16>about how do they get rid of overweights in financials

0:51:27.800 --> 0:51:30.839
<v Speaker 16>as well, for example, you know, especially and I don't

0:51:30.840 --> 0:51:33.160
<v Speaker 16>think that's necessarily a big name financially like the big

0:51:33.239 --> 0:51:35.800
<v Speaker 16>name financial so not even like the fears around smaller

0:51:35.840 --> 0:51:39.400
<v Speaker 16>banks and more banks collapsing. I think that, you know,

0:51:39.480 --> 0:51:41.959
<v Speaker 16>at the end of the day, there is a need

0:51:42.000 --> 0:51:44.480
<v Speaker 16>for stepping away from market cap weighted. We think it

0:51:44.560 --> 0:51:46.520
<v Speaker 16>makes sense a little bit more to think about quality

0:51:46.560 --> 0:51:47.680
<v Speaker 16>and value inherent in.

0:51:48.120 --> 0:51:49.080
<v Speaker 12>US large caps.

0:51:49.080 --> 0:51:51.520
<v Speaker 16>So we've been speaking a lot about our co product

0:51:51.600 --> 0:51:54.440
<v Speaker 16>quality as a reasonable price so it's based on like

0:51:54.480 --> 0:51:58.480
<v Speaker 16>the Russell one thousand, thinking about those stocks that display strong,

0:51:58.880 --> 0:52:03.400
<v Speaker 16>strong components or a strong kind of direction towards quality

0:52:03.480 --> 0:52:06.040
<v Speaker 16>and value. And we think that usually we kind of

0:52:06.040 --> 0:52:07.359
<v Speaker 16>think more about single.

0:52:07.120 --> 0:52:09.000
<v Speaker 4>Facts quality in today's environment.

0:52:09.120 --> 0:52:11.640
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, so quality is thinking about you know, kind of

0:52:11.719 --> 0:52:15.839
<v Speaker 16>smaller draw downs, but also thinking about robustness and paying

0:52:15.840 --> 0:52:18.840
<v Speaker 16>out dividends as well, and you know divs more more broadly.

0:52:18.880 --> 0:52:20.440
<v Speaker 16>You know, there's a lot of demand for bird in

0:52:20.480 --> 0:52:23.120
<v Speaker 16>hand basically, so if you can't be sure where your

0:52:23.239 --> 0:52:25.600
<v Speaker 16>price return is going to be, at least thinking about

0:52:25.600 --> 0:52:28.160
<v Speaker 16>your total return, but grabbing the dividend beforehand.

0:52:28.719 --> 0:52:30.759
<v Speaker 3>That feels conservative to me when I think people are

0:52:30.920 --> 0:52:34.680
<v Speaker 3>I think about old dividend reinvestment plans.

0:52:33.719 --> 0:52:35.840
<v Speaker 16>Even if you don't need income, right people are asking

0:52:35.880 --> 0:52:36.279
<v Speaker 16>for this.

0:52:37.040 --> 0:52:38.560
<v Speaker 5>Well, when you look at the market right now, we

0:52:38.600 --> 0:52:41.359
<v Speaker 5>have a ten year old yield at four point sixty

0:52:41.440 --> 0:52:43.920
<v Speaker 5>nine percent. Jamie Diamond was asked if rates can go

0:52:43.960 --> 0:52:46.120
<v Speaker 5>to seven percent. He said, the answer is yes. What

0:52:46.280 --> 0:52:49.000
<v Speaker 5>starts to break if we see rates in the seven

0:52:49.040 --> 0:52:49.880
<v Speaker 5>percent range?

0:52:50.400 --> 0:52:52.120
<v Speaker 16>Well, I think, really you think about kind of the

0:52:52.120 --> 0:52:54.080
<v Speaker 16>impact something that we're speaking about on the desk, A

0:52:54.080 --> 0:52:57.719
<v Speaker 16>lot is consumer credits, right, So then I think already

0:52:57.760 --> 0:52:59.719
<v Speaker 16>we start to feel the pinch all of us, you know,

0:52:59.840 --> 0:53:03.200
<v Speaker 16>like people in our industry, for example, we're definitely not

0:53:03.239 --> 0:53:06.040
<v Speaker 16>at the brunt of like having kind of very tight

0:53:06.200 --> 0:53:09.680
<v Speaker 16>kind of earnings and so forth, like from a household perspective.

0:53:09.920 --> 0:53:12.799
<v Speaker 16>But if even we're complaining about oil prices, about the

0:53:12.840 --> 0:53:15.439
<v Speaker 16>price of gas, about the price of milk, eggs, kind

0:53:15.440 --> 0:53:18.960
<v Speaker 16>of all of these things, then I think a lot

0:53:18.960 --> 0:53:21.040
<v Speaker 16>of people start to be more dependent on credit cards,

0:53:21.040 --> 0:53:23.879
<v Speaker 16>for example, and you obviously see then like a higher

0:53:23.960 --> 0:53:25.839
<v Speaker 16>rate that they need for financing.

0:53:25.880 --> 0:53:26.040
<v Speaker 9>Then.

0:53:26.160 --> 0:53:29.040
<v Speaker 16>So, I mean, I was in the industry in two

0:53:29.080 --> 0:53:31.799
<v Speaker 16>thousand and seven. I remember US launching GMAC bonds at

0:53:31.800 --> 0:53:34.400
<v Speaker 16>par and then two weeks later they're selling it like

0:53:34.480 --> 0:53:37.400
<v Speaker 16>sixty five to the dollar. I'm hoping it's not going

0:53:37.480 --> 0:53:40.400
<v Speaker 16>to be as drammass as dramatic as that, but I

0:53:40.440 --> 0:53:42.600
<v Speaker 16>think that there is a possibility that you start to

0:53:42.600 --> 0:53:44.560
<v Speaker 16>feel like more pressure on the consumer from.

0:53:44.360 --> 0:53:47.160
<v Speaker 3>That from a credit perspective, that feels pretty negative. Yeah,

0:53:47.200 --> 0:53:49.359
<v Speaker 3>that we could actually get there on the consumer side

0:53:49.400 --> 0:53:52.200
<v Speaker 3>of things. And you know, we always talk about how

0:53:52.239 --> 0:53:54.600
<v Speaker 3>important the consumer is, certainly to the US economy and

0:53:54.680 --> 0:53:57.200
<v Speaker 3>keeping momentum going. So yeah, are you saying that we

0:53:57.280 --> 0:54:00.799
<v Speaker 3>could potentially see an seven eight feel But it's the

0:54:00.800 --> 0:54:02.360
<v Speaker 3>consumer version of the story.

0:54:02.800 --> 0:54:05.480
<v Speaker 16>I think it kind of ends up transpiring through the

0:54:05.880 --> 0:54:09.439
<v Speaker 16>whole system potentially. But what's interesting is that maybe versus

0:54:09.480 --> 0:54:11.640
<v Speaker 16>two thousand and seven, you actually have more global equity

0:54:11.680 --> 0:54:15.400
<v Speaker 16>firms now that are reliant on kind of US consumer

0:54:15.440 --> 0:54:19.360
<v Speaker 16>revenues and vice versa. Right, So maybe there's kind of

0:54:19.360 --> 0:54:21.880
<v Speaker 16>scope for some contagion in some regard in terms of

0:54:22.040 --> 0:54:24.799
<v Speaker 16>you know, I'm from the UK, foots one hundred is

0:54:24.840 --> 0:54:27.560
<v Speaker 16>not just about UK consumer spending and UK kind of

0:54:27.560 --> 0:54:31.960
<v Speaker 16>industrial demand, the same for you know, dax KAC forty

0:54:32.560 --> 0:54:34.600
<v Speaker 16>and likewise the SMP as well with the rest of

0:54:34.600 --> 0:54:37.120
<v Speaker 16>the world, and especially now you start to see kind

0:54:37.120 --> 0:54:39.239
<v Speaker 16>of more broadly not just US rates going up, but

0:54:39.280 --> 0:54:42.399
<v Speaker 16>also European rates as well for example. Then I think

0:54:42.440 --> 0:54:46.400
<v Speaker 16>it's maybe not not something that we can always isolate.

0:54:46.520 --> 0:54:50.320
<v Speaker 5>So new month, new quarter earnings are on the horizon.

0:54:50.640 --> 0:54:53.080
<v Speaker 5>What matters the most when we go into the fourth quarter.

0:54:53.160 --> 0:54:55.040
<v Speaker 5>You said forty one hundred on the SMP. We haven't

0:54:55.040 --> 0:54:57.520
<v Speaker 5>been that level since the day, So is that that's

0:54:57.600 --> 0:55:00.560
<v Speaker 5>me since is that earnings breaking is that the FED

0:55:00.760 --> 0:55:04.160
<v Speaker 5>hiking again, is that the economic data really kind of

0:55:04.800 --> 0:55:05.520
<v Speaker 5>petering out.

0:55:05.680 --> 0:55:06.520
<v Speaker 4>So we do think that.

0:55:06.480 --> 0:55:10.759
<v Speaker 16>There are some opportunities even despite this this kind of

0:55:10.760 --> 0:55:14.960
<v Speaker 16>embarish tone that in that projection, what we quite like

0:55:15.080 --> 0:55:17.239
<v Speaker 16>is we think there's some opportunities in small cap. We

0:55:17.280 --> 0:55:20.200
<v Speaker 16>think again it goes back to buying the right names

0:55:20.239 --> 0:55:22.839
<v Speaker 16>within the S and P five hundred as well if

0:55:22.880 --> 0:55:24.359
<v Speaker 16>you if you do want to look at large cap

0:55:24.400 --> 0:55:27.160
<v Speaker 16>and then also in the MIDP part, we quite like

0:55:27.320 --> 0:55:30.160
<v Speaker 16>thinking about Europe as well. And that's not just because

0:55:30.160 --> 0:55:32.600
<v Speaker 16>we're a European house. We do think even our US

0:55:32.640 --> 0:55:36.239
<v Speaker 16>American's CIO thinks this as well. There is some opportunity

0:55:36.239 --> 0:55:39.560
<v Speaker 16>in European equities. Obviously, they were hammered last year, you know,

0:55:39.640 --> 0:55:41.600
<v Speaker 16>continue to be hammered into the first half of the

0:55:41.680 --> 0:55:44.000
<v Speaker 16>year as well, so we think there's a value component there.

0:55:44.040 --> 0:55:46.880
<v Speaker 16>And then when you think about European equities they typically

0:55:46.880 --> 0:55:49.920
<v Speaker 16>always yield more than US equities as well. So SMP

0:55:50.080 --> 0:55:53.360
<v Speaker 16>did yield is about one point five five percent the

0:55:55.239 --> 0:55:58.480
<v Speaker 16>EUROSOX fifty for examples around I think four thirty five

0:55:58.560 --> 0:56:00.759
<v Speaker 16>something like that. And then if you think about a

0:56:00.880 --> 0:56:04.920
<v Speaker 16>dividend focused strategy on international equities, of which European equities

0:56:04.960 --> 0:56:08.160
<v Speaker 16>is a large part of that. Think about HTEPH for example.

0:56:08.160 --> 0:56:10.080
<v Speaker 16>In our range, you can end up yielding something like

0:56:10.120 --> 0:56:12.160
<v Speaker 16>five point six five percent on an annual Live.

0:56:12.080 --> 0:56:14.680
<v Speaker 3>Amanda, were you guys as negative? This feels pretty negative?

0:56:14.840 --> 0:56:17.000
<v Speaker 3>Were you as negative a month ago? Two months ago?

0:56:17.960 --> 0:56:20.880
<v Speaker 16>I think we were feeling around the same level, to

0:56:20.920 --> 0:56:23.560
<v Speaker 16>be honest, Ye, But then you know, you see days

0:56:23.560 --> 0:56:26.040
<v Speaker 16>like today where the screen is read again because r.

0:56:26.120 --> 0:56:27.920
<v Speaker 4>We go back pre August and it felt like it

0:56:28.000 --> 0:56:28.960
<v Speaker 4>just kept getting.

0:56:28.719 --> 0:56:31.560
<v Speaker 6>Better and everyone was exciting. There was no one really

0:56:31.920 --> 0:56:33.879
<v Speaker 6>calling a forty one hundred for sure.

0:56:34.000 --> 0:56:37.120
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, I think it's forty one hundred forecast. It emerged

0:56:37.120 --> 0:56:39.480
<v Speaker 16>from US at the end of August, so we've had

0:56:39.520 --> 0:56:40.480
<v Speaker 16>it on for about a month.

0:56:40.560 --> 0:56:42.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, for about a month. Okay. It's just interesting.

0:56:42.520 --> 0:56:44.520
<v Speaker 3>That feels like a much more negative tone, although it

0:56:44.560 --> 0:56:46.719
<v Speaker 3>kind of seems to me to fit with some conversations

0:56:46.760 --> 0:56:50.280
<v Speaker 3>we've been having with folks about like maybe we're underestimating

0:56:50.280 --> 0:56:52.160
<v Speaker 3>that it could be worse off than we thought.

0:56:52.360 --> 0:56:55.000
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and if we see a US recession, how long

0:56:55.080 --> 0:56:56.200
<v Speaker 5>and how deep does that go?

0:56:56.440 --> 0:56:58.239
<v Speaker 6>I guess with your kind of expectations.

0:56:58.440 --> 0:57:01.439
<v Speaker 4>Just got about five seconds, I think.

0:57:01.480 --> 0:57:03.680
<v Speaker 16>To be honest, we haven't yet thought about how long

0:57:03.719 --> 0:57:05.400
<v Speaker 16>that will be, but when we do, we'll.

0:57:05.239 --> 0:57:05.799
<v Speaker 4>Get back to you.

0:57:05.920 --> 0:57:08.200
<v Speaker 3>All right, Well, we will definitely check in. Meta Rebello,

0:57:08.280 --> 0:57:12.000
<v Speaker 3>head of ex Tracker Sales over at DWS Group. This

0:57:12.320 --> 0:57:13.200
<v Speaker 3>is Bloomberg Radio.

0:57:13.600 --> 0:57:16.720
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

0:57:16.760 --> 0:57:20.520
<v Speaker 1>subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:57:20.600 --> 0:57:24.320
<v Speaker 1>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:57:24.520 --> 0:57:26.600
<v Speaker 1>at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm fall Sweeney.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

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<v Speaker 1>Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio