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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I can just about that action.

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Speaker 3: All right. Here we go from throwing out we're sitting

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Speaker 3: up to cash touchto we see most gamble is ships.

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Speaker 3: When they go to gamble, they go to winning. That's incredible,

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Speaker 3: big bank small. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate kabine if you want to fall,

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Speaker 3: and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 3: presented by Draftings. I am your host, Chris Raybonds is

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Speaker 3: our NFL Conference Championship betting review. We're going to talk

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Speaker 3: our top bets for Broncos, Patriots and Rams Seahawks. Joining

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Speaker 3: me as always the Prime Minister of degenerate Nation. Stucky, stuck,

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Speaker 3: what's going on? Referees had our back with that. Brandon

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Speaker 3: Cooks under two and a half last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what what a sweat with the elbow coming down

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Speaker 2: out of bounds. That would have been a third pack.

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Speaker 2: And then I did think it was clearly an interception,

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Speaker 2: but obviously I was super close to getting his third catch.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, that game went well for me. The Rams didn't.

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Speaker 2: I had some corn props, rushing props and Rams team

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Speaker 2: total over. I thought McVeigh called a horrendous game. I

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Speaker 2: mean atrocious, one of the worst I've ever seen from him,

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Speaker 2: and even he said that himself. But I mean, over

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Speaker 2: the first three quarters, they had their lowest rush rate

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Speaker 2: design run rate of the entire season, yet they had

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Speaker 2: close to a fifty percent success rate, which like would

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Speaker 2: have what led the league. And then their their pass

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Speaker 2: rate over the first three quarters was the highest of

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Speaker 2: the year and they were at a thirty percent success rate.

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Speaker 2: They didn't go heavy, despite the Bears dead last and

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Speaker 2: rush explosiveness against heavy personnel, Like, I don't know what

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Speaker 2: they were doing, and they weren't prepared for Did they

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Speaker 2: watch the second half of the Packers Again, they weren't

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Speaker 2: prepared for the Nickel Blitz, so so I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Maybe mcdave was spent the week preparing for the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I thought it was I thought the

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Speaker 2: Bear should have won the game, and I mean a

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Speaker 2: couple fourth downs turnovers flipped the other way. I don't

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Speaker 2: Just watching that game, if you didn't know anything about

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Speaker 2: those teams, you would have thought the Bears were the

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Speaker 2: better team. So I thought McVeigh got away with one

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Speaker 2: and in the other game, it's same, same old story

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Speaker 2: for Bills fans. Poor Bills fans. I I thought the

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Speaker 2: Allen didn't play well, but the defense let them let

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Speaker 2: them down again. Coaching was bad again. I mean you

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Speaker 2: the end of that first half, that that that was

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Speaker 2: the difference in the game. You don't go to overtime.

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Speaker 2: That doesn't happen, gonna do He's gonna go.

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Speaker 4: He was pressed out to bro. He was pressed out

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Speaker 4: too by accident.

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Speaker 3: Bro.

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Speaker 2: It happens, But like what was there was no upside there.

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Speaker 2: They had no timeouts like we that only could have

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Speaker 2: ended a disaster, which it did. So yeah, credit Denver

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Speaker 2: for getting it done. And now we have Jared Stidham

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Speaker 2: in the AFC Championship game. Just when you think the

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Speaker 2: Patriots schedule cannot possibly get any easier, they get a

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Speaker 2: backup quarterback in the AFC Championship Game. I mean, you

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Speaker 2: can't make this up. I mean Patriots fans who never

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Speaker 2: stopped complaining like they are on like there, they are

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Speaker 2: so upset that people are saying their schedule is so easy.

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Speaker 2: They live a charmed life. I mean, this is all

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Speaker 2: they did was have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick winning

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Speaker 2: super Bowls and then they had a hiatus where the

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Speaker 2: AFC was dominated by these elite quarterbacks where no other

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Speaker 2: team could break through. And then in the year where

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Speaker 2: you have a good team with the easiest schedule in

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Speaker 2: NFL history, you get the face Jared Stdham in the

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Speaker 2: AFC Championship game. I mean, the AFC Championship Game for

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Speaker 2: twenty five years has just been Mahomes, one borrow, Alan

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Speaker 2: Brady Roethlisberger, and then a couple of Ravens and Manning

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Speaker 2: like that's it. And you get Jared stead of unbelievable.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's to be fair, Jared Stidham in probably,

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Speaker 3: no matter how bad he plays, cannot be worse than CJ.

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Speaker 4: Stroud was last week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Patriots. I thought we're terrible last week,

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Speaker 2: but Stroud was as bad as you will ever see

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Speaker 2: a quarterback play. So yeah, I'm only three football games left,

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Speaker 2: so got to cherish them. Hopefully we can find some winners.

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Speaker 2: Got some fun, fun touchdown long shots later in the show,

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Speaker 2: some props, some sides, So yeah, let's get into.

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Speaker 3: It all right. Sixty to fifty two two points each

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Speaker 3: for everything here on out. It's the closest I've been

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Speaker 3: all year, So I'm trying to keep keep it going

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Speaker 3: here and we will. We're opening it up, so we

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Speaker 3: got just any all types of bets. Since obviously there's

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Speaker 3: only two games, I'll start us off for the Conference

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Speaker 3: championship Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Packs Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 3: Pack for my first pick first overall, going with the

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Speaker 3: Denver Broncos plus five and a half at home against

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Speaker 3: the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 4: This line is let's let's break down this line.

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Speaker 3: Let's break down the line if the Broncos had Bonnicks

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Speaker 3: given this, especially.

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Speaker 4: Given the narratives with the Patriots and they're easy schedule.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the Broncos got really lucky this year,

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Speaker 3: but I think the line would have still been Broncos

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Speaker 3: minus two ish. I would have made it around one

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Speaker 3: and a half two maybe just inside of three.

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Speaker 2: Uh yeah, closed one and a half point favorites against

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Speaker 2: the Bills, and the Bills are power rated ahead of

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Speaker 2: the Patriots in market and to me, so yeah, I

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Speaker 2: would have had them.

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Speaker 3: My mine is to twoish and a half. Yeah, right, okay,

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Speaker 3: so let's let's just go with that two and a half. Now,

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Speaker 3: the line is five and a half the other way,

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Speaker 3: Bo Knicks is not worth a seven point swing. Now

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Speaker 3: there are some ways I think the Broncos will miss

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Speaker 3: bow Knicks in this game, in this specific matchup, and

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Speaker 3: I'll get to that, but overall, just on the surface

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Speaker 3: like it to explain this bet, Bo Nicks not worth

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Speaker 3: seven point seven point drop off to Jarrex Stido.

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Speaker 4: Now you ask, well why is that?

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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, a Bo Knicks this year averaged

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Speaker 3: six point four yards in the ten. Like he throwing

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Speaker 3: the football, he wasn't great, you know, he he got better,

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Speaker 3: I think is a year progressed against zone coverage.

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Speaker 4: He you know he could.

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Speaker 3: He still made some throws against man. He still gave him,

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Speaker 3: you know, positives with his legs. But he was probably

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Speaker 3: an average quarterback all things considered, not not great. Jared Stidham,

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Speaker 3: he looked back. He was small sample still, but he's

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Speaker 3: been about a league average starter in his starts like

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Speaker 3: EPA wise, not even a backup like a league average starter.

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Speaker 3: Now small sample, so we're not gonna wait that too much.

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Speaker 3: But he's a competent quarterback and that is gonna be

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Speaker 3: important here because the one thing about the Patriots, and

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Speaker 3: I talked about this last week. You know, with the

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Speaker 3: Woody Marx thing, you can't run on the Patriots, and

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Speaker 3: I think that's where the Roncos will miss bow Knicks.

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Speaker 3: That's why, you know, I like the five and a

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Speaker 3: half more than I like the money line in this spot,

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Speaker 3: just because I could see the Patriots escaping yet again

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Speaker 3: with like a close win. But this line is egregious.

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Speaker 3: Uh Stidham is in no way seven points worth the knicks.

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Speaker 4: The Broncos defense still gonna.

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Speaker 3: Be at home. Drake May has been sloppy with the football.

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Speaker 3: So Drake May, you know, we looked at this game

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Speaker 3: last week and it was like, all right, DJ Stroud

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Speaker 3: just having a nightmare.

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Speaker 4: Threw four picks.

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Speaker 3: It just just wasn't processing in the pocket. But if

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Speaker 3: we look at what Drake May has been doing over

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Speaker 3: these past couple he's fumbled six times, he's taking ten sacks,

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Speaker 3: and he's ever again to sack ratio exactly. And so

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Speaker 3: it's like the dreaded anytime we hear the dreaded sideliner reporters,

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Speaker 3: which who have nothing to say ever when they when

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Speaker 3: they they when they go down to them and they're like, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 3: Drake May said he's got to take better care. They

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Speaker 3: said it about Stroud and May at different points of

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Speaker 3: the game. What happens a fricking turnover? Just like it

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Speaker 3: was like a smorgas board of turnovers in that game

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Speaker 3: and potential turnovers for both of them. And it's like,

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Speaker 3: this is not something you could just say you're going

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Speaker 3: to improve and improve. And the one thing about the

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Speaker 3: Patriots that the more sample we get, that's becoming a concern.

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Speaker 3: I think you alluded to this last week, Stuck, was

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Speaker 3: that when you actually go back and look at the

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Speaker 3: numbers for the pressure and for the yards before contact,

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Speaker 3: so offensive line metrics for the Patriots they've been worse

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Speaker 3: with Will Campbell and Wilson in there. Those guys missed

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Speaker 3: games near the end of the year. Uh so those

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Speaker 3: guys are back in there now. Will Campbell especially, you know,

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Speaker 3: Houston was targeting him all day, you know wind exactly,

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Speaker 3: And yeah, they were lyning Andrewson up over them like

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Speaker 3: they were just so this Bronco team record setting pressure

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Speaker 3: and remember they don't rely on turnovers. They may very

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Speaker 3: well get them in this game again. Now they needed

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Speaker 3: him against the Bills. That's understandable. Josh Allen is still

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen and I thought that it wasn't the Broncos

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Speaker 3: Finals defensive game at all.

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Speaker 2: But Bill's asadline is also way better than the Patriots

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Speaker 2: offensive line exactly.

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Speaker 3: That's and that's really the issue because Drake may has

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Speaker 3: some Allen like tendencies. He's fearless. He can make, you know,

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Speaker 3: very pinpoint throws, very far downfield. He can scramble not

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Speaker 3: not quite as big to take up some of the punishment.

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Speaker 3: I don't think in the same way at least it's thick.

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Speaker 3: But ten sacks in two games against the Broncos, riding

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Speaker 3: sack record setting sack defense with all these fumbles, that's

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Speaker 3: not going to get it done. Now you say, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: how did the Patriots respond to that? They're going against

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Speaker 3: the backup quarterback, so they might come out a little

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Speaker 3: bit more conservative, more close to the vest, you know,

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Speaker 3: it is Mike Vrabel.

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Speaker 4: So that's another thing that could actually work in a.

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Speaker 3: Broncos favor, because what is one thing we learned about

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Speaker 3: Sean pay that we've been learning about Sean Payton as

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Speaker 3: a Bronco, especially over these last two years. This dude

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Speaker 3: is not just going to run the ball for any

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Speaker 3: reason Like last year Bo Nick's rookie quarterback, I track

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Speaker 3: like pass right over expected and all that stuff, you know,

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Speaker 3: because for projecting fantasy, I kept waiting for them to

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Speaker 3: like regress to like a normal pass rate. All year.

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Speaker 3: They're just above expectation positive negative, neutral games, scrip. Same thing.

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Speaker 3: This year. They go against one of the worst run

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Speaker 3: defenses in the league in Buffalo, and they're running backs

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Speaker 3: cometby for ten carries. I think one got called back,

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Speaker 3: so eleven. Really, I think Day had one that got

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Speaker 3: called back, so eleven. Carriers will say in an overtime game,

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Speaker 3: to the point where you're running nicks to get them

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Speaker 3: hurt because you're not handing the ball to the backs.

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Speaker 4: Now you don't have that option.

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Speaker 3: But that's good because the Patriots held in two games

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Speaker 3: they held a running backs to thirty one carries for

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Speaker 3: sixty one yards. In the two playoff games so far,

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Speaker 3: neither team really wanted to run the ball. Houston at

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Speaker 3: one point was running the ball just because CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 3: was puking his brains out all over the field, like

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Speaker 3: that's the only Like they were trying to abandon the

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Speaker 3: run way early in the game. And then C. J.

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Speaker 3: Stroud Is somehow happened to be worse than getting one

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Speaker 3: yard per carry, and so they started handing the ball

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Speaker 3: off to Marks a few more times. But they're not

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Speaker 3: running on the Patriots. So stead of being a competent backup,

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Speaker 3: Sean Payton not being afraid to throw the football even

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Speaker 3: when he has he.

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Speaker 4: Was down what he was down two receivers with a

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Speaker 4: third win into the medical.

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Speaker 3: Tent and got cleared and going against one of the

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Speaker 3: worst run defenses in the league, with a lead for

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Speaker 3: most of the game, and handed the ballf ten times

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Speaker 3: to backs.

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Speaker 4: So all this is good for the Broncos. This line

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Speaker 4: is egregious.

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Speaker 3: They're at home this Sean Payton knows how to scheme

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Speaker 3: backup quarterbacks. I think he's something like seventeen to five

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Speaker 3: with backups. You know, during his time with the Saints,

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Speaker 3: remember Bridgewater Taysom Winston like it's he's done it in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs, he's done in the regular season. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: give me the Broncos here.

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Speaker 4: I think the Patriots.

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Speaker 3: I think the Patriots are a little bit slept on

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Speaker 3: in the sense that I really like their run defense.

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Speaker 3: I think their running is just amazing. It's it kind

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Speaker 3: of reminds me of the able to run defenses with

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Speaker 3: Jeffers Simmons. I like how they how the defense is playing,

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Speaker 3: you know, with everybody healthy now and on the back

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Speaker 3: end for the most.

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Speaker 4: Part of the Carlon Davis is questionable, But I still think.

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Speaker 3: This line is crazy, especially for the carelessness Drake May

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Speaker 3: has had with the ball instead of it has been around,

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Speaker 3: you know, this type of environment before you know, he

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Speaker 3: came up with the Patriots that you know that could

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Speaker 3: work for and against him. But I just think Peyton's

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Speaker 3: track record, the fact that he's not gonna wean into

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Speaker 3: the run too hard just because he has a backup,

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Speaker 3: is going to ultimately work in the broncos favor, along

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Speaker 3: with their pressure and the fact that they still have

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Speaker 3: upside for their defense in terms of, you know, not

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Speaker 3: really relying on turnovers.

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Speaker 4: So give me done for plus five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this would have been my first pick. Fortunately you

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Speaker 2: were picking first this week. But this was the first

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Speaker 2: bet I made this week. So yeah, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: I'm projecting the drop off from Knicks to Stidham to be, like,

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's an elite quarterback, You're you're drop off

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Speaker 2: to like a not a top five backup is like

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Speaker 2: a touchdown plus, and that's not the case here. I

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Speaker 2: mean Nick, so overall, his whole body work is like

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Speaker 2: an average quarterback who can be really bad at times,

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Speaker 2: who can be like a bottom five quarterback instead of them,

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Speaker 2: I think is like I would consider him an upper

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Speaker 2: echelon backup. So I'm projecting this with you know, the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver injuries. You know, I'm projecting this like a

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Speaker 2: like a five point drop off, and I think I

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Speaker 2: might even be too high with that.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, sounds a little aggressive there, I know, But.

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Speaker 2: I'm still I'm still only then at like three point

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Speaker 2: two to three point three for the line, So I

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Speaker 2: think this spread would be a field goal he got.

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Speaker 2: This is also look, by the way, over the last

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Speaker 2: fifty years home dogs in the NFL playoffs, so four

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Speaker 2: plus points are nine to zero against the spread Denver

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Speaker 2: in January. This is not an easy place to play,

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Speaker 2: especially in January. Oh, for what it's worth, they are,

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Speaker 2: They're five and oh against spread as a home dog

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Speaker 2: in January all time, two to zero in the playoffs

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Speaker 2: they won with They beat the Pats in one of

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Speaker 2: those games as a home dog in January and they

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Speaker 2: won with Tim Tebow as the quarterback in the other

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Speaker 2: Payton also is an elite elite underdog. Including the postseason,

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Speaker 2: He's sixty one forty two and two against the spread,

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Speaker 2: fifty nine point two percent, covering by two and a

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Speaker 2: half points per game when catching over a Fueld goal,

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Speaker 2: one of the best of all time, sixty six percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread, sample size of fifty games, covering by

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Speaker 2: about a Fueld goal per game. And like you mentioned Stidham,

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Speaker 2: so if you go back to since twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: so he has four starts, two with the Broncos, two

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Speaker 2: with the Raiders. If you remove garbage time and you

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Speaker 2: look at all quarterbacks with the minimum of one hundred snaps,

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Speaker 2: he is nineteenth and success rate out of eighty two quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: That's he's basically tied with Jalen Hurts. Adjusted EPA for

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Speaker 2: play thirty third. Basically Baker Mayfield forty first in EPA

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Speaker 2: plus completion percentage over expectation, basically Mitch Trubisky over that. So,

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Speaker 2: like Mitch Trubisky, feels like a fair And here's the thing.

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Speaker 2: In those four games he started two with the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three Broncos. They were twenty sixth in DVA offensively,

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Speaker 2: thirty first in pressure rate allowed, bad offense, bad offensive

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Speaker 2: line twenty twenty two Raiders twenty fourth DVA on offense,

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth in pressure rate allowed. Well, now he has

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Speaker 2: an elite play caller, he's been in the system for years,

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Speaker 2: and he has arguably the best offensive line in theF

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Speaker 2: That's massive for a backup. You also have like the

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Speaker 2: ewing theory in effect here, right back up quarterback AFC

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Speaker 2: Champion to get home, you're going to get everyone else

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Speaker 2: like just out of body stepping up this narrative. But

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Speaker 2: we've seen it play out in the past before. Also,

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Speaker 2: now all the pressure shifts to the Pats, right like

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Speaker 2: this young team with a young quarterback, they're playing yards

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Speaker 2: sead in Like you can't let this opportunity go by,

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Speaker 2: so the Broncos can play free here. Additionally, the element

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Speaker 2: of surprise I think works in the broncos favor, like

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Speaker 2: what what are they going to do with Stidham? What

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Speaker 2: are the packages that they're going to use? Like this

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Speaker 2: is I think this is to their advantage. Now, McDaniels

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Speaker 2: does have a lot of familiarity with Sidham, right they

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Speaker 2: drafted him that he went with McDaniels to the Raiders,

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Speaker 2: so he knows his tendencies. Maybe that plays a factor,

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Speaker 2: but there's a reason that this Sidham was the first

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Speaker 2: free agent signing for Peyton when he got to Denver.

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Speaker 2: I think that he likes them, and I trust Peyton

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Speaker 2: to get creative here, and I I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: I think that he's gonna have to throw the ball

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Speaker 2: and he's gonna have to do it fairly efficiently because

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Speaker 2: they're not gonna be to run on the Patriots. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you look at the Patriots. Their run dye was so

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Speaker 2: elite early in the year and then it fell off

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Speaker 2: because Milton Williams got hurt, their linebackers got hurt, Tongo

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Speaker 2: was hurt and then once but if you just look

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Speaker 2: at their splits when they're healthy, their run defense is dominant,

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Speaker 2: so that that Siam is not gonna have a run

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Speaker 2: game to rely on. But his offensive line. Peyton's also

336
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Speaker 2: a really good schemer against the blitz. Their offensive line

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Speaker 2: is good against like stunts, which the which the Patriots

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Speaker 2: have been doing. The Patriots like over the last four games.

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Speaker 2: They're blitzing at like a floor as rate like forty three,

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Speaker 2: forty five, forty four, And that's how they're gett pressure

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Speaker 2: because they can't really generate pressure without blitzing. And now

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Speaker 2: they're going up against a much better offensive I mean

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Speaker 2: they their last four weeks, they went up against what

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Speaker 2: the Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, and Texans offensive lines all with injuries.

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Speaker 2: And now you're going up against one of the best

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Speaker 2: offensive lines in the NFL. So I think there will

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Speaker 2: be opportunities for Sidham to move the ball. And then

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Speaker 2: once they do get move the ball into the red zone,

349
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Speaker 2: you're going up against one of the worst red zone

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Speaker 2: defenses in the NFL. Now, Fortunately for the Pats, they

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Speaker 2: played the Chargers and the Texans offenses, who are the

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Speaker 2: two worst red zone offenses Denver. I think will scheme

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Speaker 2: up some better stuff here in the red zone. I

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Speaker 2: mean before last week, the Pats were giving up touchdowns

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Speaker 2: on ninety five percent of goal to go drives on

356
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Speaker 2: the season, ninety five percent. So and you mentioned it

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Speaker 2: like the pressure I think is going to be huge

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Speaker 2: here on the road. Also, you got to remember the

359
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 2: noise fall starts, just communication, all of that, that's what

360
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 2: plays into home field here in a hostile environment. But

361
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Speaker 2: one of Drake May's biggest weaknesses was his pressure to

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Speaker 2: sack Ray Shore right. He was twenty eighth in the

363
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 2: regular season at twenty percent. Well that's going up to

364
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 2: forty five percent. That left side of the offensive line.

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Speaker 2: Benito and company, I think are going to get a

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Speaker 2: lot of pressure. This is a Denver defense that's top

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Speaker 2: three and adjusted pressure rate fourth and pressure rate without blitzing.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, like the I like the Broncos. Here. Also,

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Speaker 2: you mentioned and look the Patriots. You mentioned Denver not

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Speaker 2: getting turnovers. They've been unlucky. They're one of the five.

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Speaker 2: They were I think twenty ninth in EPA due to turnovers.

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Speaker 2: The Pats have been very lucky. I mean, look no

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Speaker 2: further than I mean the Pats. Not only did the

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Speaker 2: Pats have the easiest schedule in the NFL and face

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Speaker 2: nothing but backups fourth downs, they were seventy two percent

376
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Speaker 2: during the regular season their opponents thirty They fumbled it

377
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Speaker 2: twenty times, recovered twelve. They recovered ten of their opponents

378
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 2: fourteen fumbles, so extreme fumble up that's continued in the postseason.

379
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Speaker 2: So far in the postseason, they're two of three on

380
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Speaker 2: fourth downs. Their opponents two of five fumbles. They fumbled

381
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Speaker 2: it six times, only lost three. Their opponents fumbled at

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Speaker 2: three times, only lost two. Denver is the complete opposite,

383
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Speaker 2: like per on, fourth down for them fifty for their

384
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: opponents they covered that. They were covered the second fewest

385
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Speaker 2: fumbles in the league. So you saw, finally some turnovers

386
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: break their way last week. Don't be surprised if some

387
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 2: fourth downs and some turnovers break their way again this week.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like the Broncos here, and I'm gonna

389
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Speaker 2: take it one step further for my first pick and

390
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Speaker 2: the second overall of Championships Sunday six pack, I'm going

391
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Speaker 2: with the Broncos first quarter plus a half a point.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of the things I've already mentioned, but

393
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Speaker 2: just to kind of narrow the focus to early in

394
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Speaker 2: the game, I already mentioned home dogs of four plus

395
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Speaker 2: in the postseason nine to zerogainst the spread over the

396
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Speaker 2: past fifth years. Well, home dogs in the AFC and

397
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: NFC championship game over the past twenty five years, it's

398
00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: only happened five times. They're four to one against the

399
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Speaker 2: spread in the first quarter and the first half. And

400
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Speaker 2: if you look at we said Knicks is a you know,

401
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 2: league average quarterback if you look at his whole body

402
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 2: of work, if you just look at his first quarters,

403
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 2: he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year,

404
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 2: thirty first, so we just look thirty two quarterbacks at

405
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 2: at least seventy five dropbacks in the first quarter. He's

406
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Speaker 2: thirty first in EPA plus completion percent of joe of expectation.

407
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: It's basically was tied with Flacco for dead last twenty

408
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 2: six adjusted EPA per play, twenty ninth at success rate,

409
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 2: thirty first in completion percentage over expectation. One of Bonnick's

410
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 2: biggest attributes all year has been his fourth quarter play,

411
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: his scramble ability, his ability to extend plays. And they

412
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 2: add all like all kinds of crazy comebacks late. So like,

413
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Speaker 2: what were you getting all year from Nicks in the

414
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Speaker 2: first quarter? Nothing? So what could the drop off be

415
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Speaker 2: even early on? Additionally, you have the element of surprise

416
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Speaker 2: the script Patriots not knowing what to expect here, You're

417
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 2: probably going to get some tricks, some really exotic looks.

418
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Speaker 2: They might even go heavier here. So I trust Peyton

419
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Speaker 2: to come up with some stuff that the Patriots just

420
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,199
Speaker 2: don't really have on film and don't know what to

421
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 2: expect with Stidham. Now you might say, well, Drake May

422
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 2: has been very elite in first quarters this year. I

423
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 2: mean all of his numbers are elite, however against and

424
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 2: we got to stretch this because the Patriots schedule is

425
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 2: so bad. But if you just look at what we

426
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 2: consider average to above average defenses on the Patriots schedule,

427
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: and I'm stretching this to the Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Raiders, Ravens, Browns,

428
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: and then Chargers and Texans the past two weeks, who

429
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: are legit defenses. There were two and six in the

430
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Speaker 2: first quarter. They only averaged four and a half points

431
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 2: per game, They were shut out three times, they only

432
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 2: scored more than seven once, and so far in the playoffs,

433
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 2: I mean these are the all season. These are the

434
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 2: first two really legit defenses that May has faced. And

435
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 2: May has been the worst first quarter quarterback in the

436
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 2: playoffs so far. And that includes you know, CJ. Strout,

437
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 2: if you look at any usted EPA number. You mentioned

438
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 2: the fumbles, but this the pass rush, I think the

439
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 2: defense is gonna come come out juiced. The early script.

440
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 2: I like Denver early to at least keep this time.

441
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 2: I think. I also you mentioned the Patriots they might

442
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 2: go a little bit more conservative early to not make

443
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 2: a mistakes. You see what Stidham's got. So yeah, I'm

444
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 2: gonna go with Denver first quarter plus a half. I'm

445
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 2: also on Denver for the full game. That would have

446
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: been my first pick where you're going for.

447
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 3: The Yeah, yeah, no, Like I didn't realize that may

448
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 3: was that bad. I mean, I test wise, I just

449
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 3: didn't pull the numbers. But yeah, I might join you

450
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,719
Speaker 3: on that because I think it's it can be like

451
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 3: the Patriots have been kind of co by.

452
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 4: You know.

453
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 3: The other day of defense has been really good, but

454
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 3: now you're in a situation where you're going on the

455
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 3: road for the first time in the playoffs. You're still

456
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 3: a young team, like all the vable things that have

457
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: like gotten you this far, but now it's like there

458
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: was a reason. Sean Payton, I think immediately like twent

459
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 3: back to the podium and announced that I don't think

460
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 3: it was for he said it was for his own team,

461
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 3: but I think it was for the Patriots. I think

462
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 3: it was so that they knew right off the bat,

463
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 3: so they're already starting to look past you know this

464
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: Denver team, like all right, and start feeling that pressure

465
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 3: so they could come out tight. They're going on the road,

466
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: mile Hive, all places, real tough places to play, and

467
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: just a simple fact of like you said, they haven't

468
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 3: really played good teams first quarter in the toughest matchup

469
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 3: of the year.

470
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 4: It makes a lot of sense.

471
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 3: So I like that.

472
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 4: I do like that, So let's stick with this game.

473
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go for my second pick, the third overall

474
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 3: of the conference championship six pack. I'm going with Jarrett

475
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 3: Stidham over thirty one and a half pass attempts against

476
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 3: this new England defense. Now, I already kind of talked

477
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 3: about it. Sean Payton against a bad run defense last

478
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 3: week with three receivers that got hurt in the first quarter.

479
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 3: One Mims came back and then got hurt again and

480
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 3: then came back.

481
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 4: But yeah, he runs. He gives the ball to the

482
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 4: backs ten times in that game.

483
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 3: For the season. Guess who had the league in pass

484
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 3: attempts during the regular season, Bow Knicks, and he did.

485
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 3: This is sprite scrambling. You know, It's not like bo

486
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 3: Nicks is just a pocket bound quarterback. Like he's scrambling too.

487
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: Still managed to lead the league pass attempts Jared Stidham

488
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: four career starts, thirty six attempts, thirty four attempts, thirty

489
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:45,239
Speaker 3: four attempts, thirty two attempts. So Stidham's always had at

490
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 3: least thirty two here and the Patriots if you look

491
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 3: at the postseason, Herbert only got to thirty one in

492
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 3: or the Chargers only got to thirty one in that

493
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 3: first meeting, but they got sacked six times. I think

494
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: Sean Payton, we'll figure out, like get the ball out

495
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 3: of Stidham's hands quicker than that.

496
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,919
Speaker 2: And Justin also have an astronomically better offensive line than

497
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: the Chargers.

498
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it, so I will in fantasy.

499
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 4: The center is questionable, right, like the backup center is questionable.

500
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: I believe they might get their starter back.

501
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Wattenberg will be big because their numbers have

502
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: dropped off us, you know, without Wattenberg in the lineup

503
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: over these last believe that he's been out for four weeks,

504
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 3: so that would be big. But yeah, they could have

505
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 3: issues with the with at center if he can't go

506
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 3: and force it. Forces is also uh you know, out

507
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 3: of action, so that.

508
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 2: That could be I think he's gonna be back by

509
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 2: the way.

510
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, instead of has work with the backups either way,

511
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 3: So I mean it shouldn't be a massive deal. But yeah,

512
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 3: we know justin Herbert just pukes in the playoffs and

513
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 3: then C. J. Stroud, I mean still through the ball

514
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 3: forty seven times and you know, and they's there's also

515
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: you know, like if you don't believe in Stidham, like

516
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 3: if you think maybe he's getting a little too hyped

517
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 3: up now you know, maybe sharps are on him or

518
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 3: whatever it is, Like, Okay, if Stidham does shit the

519
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 3: bed and like throw a pick six or something, fumble whatever,

520
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 3: like if the Patriots get another defensive score, that just

521
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 3: puts Stidham right back on the field. And remember Sean

522
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 3: Payton is just not running the ball, and no one's

523
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: running the ball against the Patriots, So love to stit

524
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 3: them over pass attempts. Don't mind the over passing yards

525
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 3: as well. I think it's still under two hundred. I

526
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 3: have it over I have it, you know, into the

527
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: too high two hundreds. So I think that's another option.

528
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 3: But I like the attempts because I think there's a

529
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,959
Speaker 3: variety of ways that he gets there just in the

530
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: normal scheme of the game, whether winning or losing. Like

531
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 3: I think if they're winning, it's because they're throwing the ball.

532
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 3: I think if they're losing, they're gonna throw the ball.

533
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: That's just what we've seen from Tron Payton through his

534
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 3: entire tenure. So give me Stidham over thirty one and

535
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 3: I have passed attemps. I have it projected at thirty

536
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 3: four and a half. I was pretty surprised to see

537
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 3: the market so well, but they usually kind of ding

538
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 3: backup quarterbacks a little bit. But in this in Denver's like,

539
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: the team's pass rate over expected is generally pretty sticky.

540
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: So even if you do kind of knock it down,

541
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 3: which I have, you know, for for Stidham, he's I'm

542
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: still getting thirty four and a half. You know, with

543
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 3: Nicks again, they were passing it that like one of

544
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: the highest rates in the league. I just don't think

545
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 3: people notice because it was Nicks and he was running

546
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 3: a lot scrambling and whatnot. But yeah, I think that

547
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: I think that the market is too on Stidham. So

548
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 3: give me thirty one and a half over for his

549
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 3: pass attempts.

550
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: All right, I'll play Devil's advocate here, just to get

551
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: your thoughts, because yeah, I mean, especially if they're behind,

552
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 2: I think this gets there. But so I mean, I'm

553
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,239
Speaker 2: ninety nine percent sure Wattenberg's gonna be back. I mean,

554
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: one of the reporters said he's expected back. They cut

555
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: they released Deeter. They're veteran, like, okay, fourth string center yesterday,

556
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 2: so they wouldn't have done that if uh why yeah

557
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 2: for sight, we're out. So I'm expecting Wattenberg back. So

558
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: if wan Berg comes back and then you get Dobbins back,

559
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: can they they could go to more like six there,

560
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 2: you know, go back to some of the six man

561
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: offensive line looks and run it more with Dobbins. And

562
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: then if you have the Patriots being a little bit

563
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,959
Speaker 2: more conservative early and then this gets into just like

564
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 2: a a shit like a just a you know, thirteen

565
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 2: to ten type of game, and both teams are playing

566
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 2: like field position, that would be My only concern is if,

567
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 2: like the Broncos, do switch tendencies. But I do think

568
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 2: that the Patriots run defense is legit, so I don't

569
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: think that they're going to have a ton of success

570
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 2: doing that. So I do think that Peyton would be

571
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 2: smart to throw it more here, but that would be

572
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: My only concern is Wadenberg back, Dobbin's back, they go

573
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,959
Speaker 2: more jumbo, they run it more, and then their defense

574
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 2: is balling out. Patriots are being more conservative, and then

575
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 2: this turns into a very very low scoring game.

576
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's possible, but like that's the thing.

577
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 3: That's why I like this problem so much. It's because

578
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 3: thirty one and a half is really nothing in in

579
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: an important game where I mean, like, yeah, like you said,

580
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 3: you're not gonna get a lot of situations where it's

581
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 3: gonna be I think run for like run first down,

582
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 3: run or something like that. Like it's it's you're gonna

583
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 3: get a lot of second and longs if you're running

584
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 3: on first down. You're gonna get a lot of third

585
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 3: downs if you're running on second down. Like, I don't

586
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 3: see the success rate being large enough. And Sean Payton

587
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: has showed us all year that he is. He's one

588
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: of the coaches just hates to run the ball twice

589
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 3: in a row, like he just like even against bad

590
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 3: run defense, he just doesn't do it. So I could see,

591
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: you know, Dobvit's coming back and them just using that

592
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 3: to you know, use the play action game more. You know,

593
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 3: they're when R. J. Harvey's on the field, they don't

594
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: run the ball period, Like it's like a thirty percent

595
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 3: of the snaps. I think they run the ball with

596
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 3: him on the field. So like they'll still do a

597
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 3: lot they they have a fullback on the field a while.

598
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: You know, we'll talk about the tight ends later. They

599
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 3: even throw the ball to their tackles, like Frank Crump

600
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 3: going to touchdown last week. So it's like, I mean

601
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 3: this team is like just by the numbers, the like

602
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 3: one of the they're like right there at the Bengals and

603
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 3: Chiefs is the most passive run averse teams.

604
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 4: So I think there's just a lot of ways to

605
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 4: get there.

606
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, it could always backfire, like if it if

607
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 3: it's just like, uh, you know, something goes the other way,

608
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: like let's say.

609
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, covering fumbles.

610
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, like let's say Drake.

611
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 4: May commits multiple turnover sixes or something like that. Yeah,

612
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 4: that's it.

613
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 3: That's but but just like on normal median expectation, uh,

614
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: this is yeah when you projected thirty four and a yeah,

615
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 3: way over way over all.

616
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 2: Right for my second pick and the fourth overall of

617
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 2: the championships. Sunday six back, we're staying in this game.

618
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Keisham Boody. Under two and a

619
00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 2: half catches for what it's where he went under a

620
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 2: nine or fourteen regular season games. He has gone over

621
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: in both playoff games so far, which I think maybe

622
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 2: is why we're getting a pretty good price like under

623
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 2: two and a half, Like eating money here. His biggest

624
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: games all year came against zone heavy defenses. He's I

625
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: think he's going to see a ton of certain so

626
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 2: I think he's going to get PS two shadowed for

627
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 2: a lot of this game. Matt Collins also could be back,

628
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 2: so maybe that takes away some of his targets. He's

629
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: already not a he's not a target monster.

630
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 3: I don't think. I don't think. I don't. I don't

631
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 3: think HOWNDS will be back. That's just what That's the

632
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 3: pressure I'm getting from from the way they're talking about it.

633
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: But I agree with you on on like he's not

634
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 3: talking about I thought that too.

635
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: But they him and Diggs were saying, like they're so

636
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: excited that Holland's going to be back. Did you see that?

637
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: I did, But it like it sounded like from the

638
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: coaching updates that they gave that he wasn't going to

639
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 3: be back.

640
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 4: So I mean, who knows. I mean I would, That's.

641
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 2: Not the reason I'm playing it.

642
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 4: I'm just saying that, yeah, yeah, there's a chance he takes.

643
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: Hounds Is back. Then you know he might get one

644
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 2: of those one or two of the deep shots that yeah,

645
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: it goes booty, but I think he's gonna get a

646
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: lot of certain it's gonna get a lot. There's the

647
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 2: Broncos play a lot of man coverage against man coverage.

648
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: The Drake May's target share goes way up to Digs

649
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 2: and Henry and the tight ends, and I think they're

650
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,479
Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of work here. You're still gonna

651
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 2: get a couple of deep shots the booty and he

652
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 2: might have a couple of big plays, but you're gonna

653
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 2: get one of the best corners in the NFL against

654
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 2: him a lot. And then if he does get matched

655
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: up against Moss and he probably won't catch it, but

656
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 2: just get like a fifty yard PI which might take

657
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: away one of those those passes. Half joking, but Broncos

658
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: are number one and explosive pass defense and I I

659
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: just I think that he probably ends up getting Like

660
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 2: we just talked about the Pats being potentially more conservative,

661
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 2: we mentioned the Broncos pass rush against this offensive line.

662
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 2: There's also a chance that it's a disaster for Stidham.

663
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: Like we both like the Broncos, but there's a lot

664
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 2: of unserved in this game. There's a chance it's a

665
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: complete disaster and the Patriots are up twenty one to

666
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 2: nothing early and then they don't throw at all the

667
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: rest of the game, and then Drake May's attempts come

668
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: way down that would help it as well. But yeah,

669
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 2: I mean digs. I think is gonna be in the

670
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 2: slot a ton this week, and you're gonna, I think

671
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 2: target middle of the field, your tight ends digs, and

672
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 2: you're gonna get certain on Booty who's already not a target,

673
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 2: share a monster, take a couple of deep shots to him.

674
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 2: I'll take my chances. I mean, last week he did

675
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 2: get over on like one of the greatest catches of

676
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: the season down the sidelines to get his third catch.

677
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take my chances. With under two and

678
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 2: a half, Hopefully it's a lot less stressful of a

679
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 2: sweat than Cooks was last week. Curious to get your

680
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 2: thoughts here.

681
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I think I think they're similar.

682
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 3: I like, I think I think Boody is actually probably

683
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 3: a better bet than Cooks for like a big play.

684
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, I wouldn't here.

685
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wouldn't go. And I think Boody could still

686
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 3: get in the end zone because I do think like

687
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 3: Drake May targeted way it was stingy, right, I think

688
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 3: that he was targeting, So it's like Drake May will

689
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 3: target certain But yeah, there's a lot of ways that

690
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 3: I think this number still goes under.

691
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 4: Diggs was up to fifty nine slot rate last week,

692
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 4: and I.

693
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 3: Think you continue that this week if you're the Patriots,

694
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 3: there's no reason not to.

695
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Boody most likely ends up with.

696
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 3: Two catches fifty eight yards, Yeah, and perhaps a touchdown,

697
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 3: Like I wouldn't be surprised that one of them's touchdown.

698
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, as far as the median, yeah, I would

699
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 3: go under this as as well. And if Hollins is

700
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 3: back yet that that does help because Booty was up

701
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 3: to you know, he's running like full you know, top

702
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 3: tier wide receiver, one route route and number percentage of

703
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 3: participation rate. Now with Mac Collins back, that likely would

704
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 3: take down a little to like get you know, seventy

705
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 3: five is eighty percent, but he was way up there

706
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 3: last week. I think it was like eighty it's the

707
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 3: eighty nah, ninety percent. I think wait was it eighty eight? Sorry?

708
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 3: Eighty eight percent for Booty last week led the team,

709
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 3: So that's not actually the norm. He's more around seventy

710
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 3: five percent for the season. So yeah, there's a chance

711
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: he doesn't run quite as many routes. And like you said,

712
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 3: there is a chance that was the Patriots our favorite here,

713
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 3: so that further kind of you know, works against him.

714
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 3: All right, let's switch to the we'll get to the

715
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 3: second game. We got two more picks each before we

716
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 3: get to the rest of the six pack. Here's our

717
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 3: weekly reminder to sign up for Action to Pro only.

718
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 3: Action Pro subscribers get real time notifications when Stucky brand

719
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 3: is Anderson, John Kerner, myself, any of our Action experts

720
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 3: track picks in the app. There will be plenty of

721
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 3: fun sweats this NFL postseason. We already saw one with

722
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 3: Brandon Cooks and that under so you want to get

723
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,759
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Speaker 3: twenty for twenty dollars off. The rest of the Sunday

727
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 3: six pack is coming up, but first I'll throw it

728
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 3: to myself for a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.

729
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 3: The Action Network podcast is sponsored by Draft Kings sportsbook

730
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731
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733
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739
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 3: use Code Action Network when signing up and bet five

740
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Speaker 3: bucks to get three hundred back and bonus bets. If

741
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 3: your bet wins, the crown is yours all right, rams

742
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 3: Seahawks stuck, I mean you have a game. Bat on

743
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,879
Speaker 3: this game, so actually I think you should just start

744
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 3: us off here because you have the game bat, I

745
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 3: have a prop. So let's just everything's worth two points

746
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 3: this week. We don't need to go in order for

747
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 3: these last two. Start us off where you're going. Seahawks, Rams,

748
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 3: Yeah we yeah, We're gonna do everything.

749
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 2: Two points makes it easier for organization, give you a

750
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 2: better chance to come back, make it the race more interesting.

751
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 2: So for my third pick in the fifth overall of

752
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 2: the Championship Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Los

753
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 2: Angeles Rams plus two and a half. I have not

754
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 2: bet this yet. I will. I'm waiting for a three.

755
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 2: I will buy to a three if I have to,

756
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 2: but I'm just waiting to see where this market goes.

757
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 2: Doesn't matter for our contest though, Like a push is

758
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 2: a loss, so it doesn't matter either way. I just

759
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 2: think this is more of a coin flip game. So

760
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 2: let's like, let's look at what is transpired since week

761
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: sixteen when these two teams played, and when they these

762
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 2: two things. I bet Seattle plus one in that game.

763
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 2: They closed minus one one and a half. They were

764
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 2: the dead wrong side. I got extremely lucky. In that game.

765
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,760
Speaker 2: There was one of the flukiest two point convergent Oversee,

766
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 2: the Rams were up in that game by sixteen. In

767
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, Darnold threw a back breaking pick that

768
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: really should have ended the game, and then everything just

769
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 2: broke their way, and then they went on a two

770
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:15,399
Speaker 2: point conversion in overtime. In that game, in which they

771
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: were outgained five hundred and eighty one to four twenty.

772
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 2: The Rams did not have DeVante Adams, and they did

773
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 2: not have Kevin Dotson, who, by the way, last week

774
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 2: came back it was rated by PFF the highest offensive

775
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: lineman of the entire weekend. And they didn't have Quintin

776
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: Lake on defense. The Seahawks were pretty much fully healthy

777
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 2: for that game outside of their left tackle, who might

778
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 2: miss again this week. So that line like that. One

779
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 2: of the reasons I played that Seahawks is because the

780
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 2: Rams weren't fully healthy, and I played it a plus

781
00:41:55,160 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 2: one so and then since that, since then, yes, the

782
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 2: Seahawks have looked dominant, but they played the Panthers and

783
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers practice squad twice. That's it. Now

784
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 2: the schedule sets up for Seattle here right, they were

785
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 2: the one seed because of that two point conversion they

786
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 2: had a buy. This will be the third straight road

787
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 2: game for the Rams. They went from Carolina to Chicago

788
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 2: to Seattle. Obviously not ideal. So but go back to that.

789
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 2: From week sixteen, it was clear the Rams are the

790
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: best team in the NFL. It was clear the Rams

791
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: dominated Seattle, and everyone said the Rams are going to

792
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl. And now like we're getting to

793
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 2: Seattle length three at home in a divisional game where

794
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 2: home field generally isn't that doesn't mean as much. So yeah,

795
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 2: I got to take even an expensive three then get

796
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 2: a three minus one twenty right now, That's probably what

797
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 2: I end up playing, just waiting to see where this goes.

798
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 2: I just think that this is this is too many points.

799
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 2: I think this is basically a coin flip game. What

800
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 2: this game will come down to, Like we're I think

801
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,800
Speaker 2: we're just everyone has seen the Rams. They haven't covered

802
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 2: two straight. The Seahawks have blown teams out by the

803
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 2: way teams off of thirty five plus point win I

804
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 2: always love faded in the next week. Only one other

805
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 2: team has won in the playoffs by thirty five or

806
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 2: more since two thousand and three is the Patriots in

807
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 2: twenty eleven against the Broncos. They won forty five to ten.

808
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 2: They played the Ravens the next week. They were favored

809
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 2: by seven, They won by three. Should have lost the

810
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: most depressing game of my life. Lee Evans drops a

811
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 2: touchdown at the end. Billy Undiff missus.

812
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, remember that.

813
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 2: But teams off of thirty five plus point win over

814
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 2: the past twenty five years are fifty five seventy four

815
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 2: in five against the spread. But if you just look

816
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 2: at teams that won by twenty plus in the playoffs

817
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 2: the week before, they're one in five against the spread

818
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: the following week. Teams playing their third straight road game

819
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 2: doesn't happen often, but since two thousand and three they're

820
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 2: They're five and eight against the spread on Championship Sunday,

821
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 2: one and three against the spread versus the one seed,

822
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 2: zero and two in Seattle, for what it's worth. But

823
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks that didn't cover Hall of Fame quarterbacks, which

824
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 2: Stafford's going to be, are four and oh in this spot,

825
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 2: plus Jimmy g those are the five wins. The quarterbacks

826
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 2: who have lost are you know, Jayden Daniels, Tannehill, the Loam,

827
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 2: Mark Sanchez, Colin Kaepernick, McNabb lost one two, So I mean,

828
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 2: third straight road game, no buying regular season thirty seven

829
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 2: forty and one against the spread. Mcvay's done at once.

830
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 2: In twenty eighteen, they rolled San Francisco, although that's kind

831
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: of a neutral site. Mcvay's also seven and two against

832
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 2: the spread in Seattle. But like, here's the thing, I

833
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 2: just what this game is going to come down to

834
00:44:56,000 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 2: is whom it Like this it's football between McVeigh and

835
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 2: McDonald and you're it's very difficult. Like I was trying

836
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 2: to think of some like looking at some props for

837
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 2: the Rams, and I just I don't know what McVeigh

838
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 2: is going to do here. He usually throws curveballs. I mean,

839
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 2: last week's curveball made no sense to me. But maybe

840
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: that was in anticipation of this game. Was he's setting

841
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: something up because if you look in the first meeting,

842
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 2: they were sixty four percent eleven personnel. In the second meeting,

843
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,919
Speaker 2: they were sixty three percent thirteen personnel. In the second meeting.

844
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 2: They also ran right at Nick even wore with a

845
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 2: ton of success, and that set up a lot of

846
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 2: the explosive plays that they were able to hit, and

847
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 2: they were able to do so without DeVante Adams, what

848
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 2: are they going to do here? Because the Seahawks defense

849
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 2: has no there's no weaknesses. It is like the perfect defense.

850
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 2: There's no way they can get pressure without blitzing. And

851
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 2: when they do blitz they no one gets pressure at

852
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: a higher rate because of the Even more, they're able

853
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: to just have this package on the that can defend

854
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 2: heavy or you know, eleven personnel and you know, because

855
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: they can get pressure without blitzing, it gives McDonald as

856
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: one of the best play callers in the NFL ultimate flexibility.

857
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 2: And then their secondary is so well schooled. There's you know,

858
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 2: he's addressed the linebacker position with Ernest Jones. There's really

859
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: no weaknesses on this defense. But a really well oiled

860
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 2: in rhythm offense. Elite elite will always trump an elite

861
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 2: elite defense in my opinion, and that's what we saw

862
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: in Week sixteen. Now it was a short week. McDonald

863
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 2: said he tried to like install some new looks and

864
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 2: he probably shouldn't have and he got too advanced. So

865
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 2: we'll see, but you know, he's gonna have some adjustments.

866
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: Mcveigh's gonna have some adjustments, which one of those guys

867
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,919
Speaker 2: has like the more effective game plan and then makes

868
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 2: the more effective in game adjustments. I think that's what

869
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 2: decides his game. So we could talk all we want

870
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:00,280
Speaker 2: I think these are the two best teams in the NFL. Well,

871
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 2: we could talk all we want about, like looking at

872
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 2: the numbers, looking at Okay, this is what Seattle did

873
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 2: against this personnel. We could throw all that out because

874
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be some curveballs here from both

875
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 2: And at the end of the day, I have the

876
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 2: better quarterback and the better offensive line with and the

877
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: healthier offensive line, and he has much more playoff experience.

878
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:22,919
Speaker 2: I mean Donald got his first playoff win last week.

879
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 2: Stafford is seven with five coming away from home. And

880
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:33,720
Speaker 2: you could argue that there's a ten to fifteen percent

881
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 2: chance that Donald gets injured here, like injured, like his

882
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 2: his oblique flares up takes usually takes a couple of

883
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 2: weeks to heal mild versions. You could see on a

884
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 2: couple of his deep throws last week that and that's

885
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 2: where it's really going to be impacted. Also, like his mobility,

886
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 2: his scramble ability and the rams can get pressure, and

887
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: that's where Donald struggles. We've seen it against the Rams

888
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 2: all year. The first meeting, he threw all those picks.

889
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 2: The second meeting, I mean, their offense was doing nothing

890
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 2: for the first three quarters and he threw another backbreaking pick.

891
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 2: We saw it in the playoffs last year. So I

892
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 2: mean this Rams defense has had Donald's number, and one

893
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 2: of the reasons is they can get pressure without blitzing.

894
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 2: And this Seahawks offense has been kind of figured out.

895
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 2: Like last week, what did Darnald do? I mean, he

896
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 2: threw for one hundred and fifteen yards. He didn't have

897
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 2: to do much. That's not going to be the case

898
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 2: this week against this Rams offense. But if you go back,

899
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 2: I mean since week week thirteen, if you remove garbage time,

900
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: Seattle twenty seventh EPA per play on offense fifteenth and

901
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 2: success rate and they played the Panthers and forty nine

902
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 2: ers twice over the past three games. It's not like

903
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 2: they've been facing nothing but elite defenses. Now, their run

904
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 2: game has gotten a lot better and it's been more effective.

905
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 2: It was horrible earlier in the year, and they were

906
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 2: just using that to setup play action, but teams are

907
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 2: now using lighter boxes, bracketing JSN, taking away the explosive

908
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 2: pass play and they're able to run it a bit more,

909
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 2: but it's really kind of stunted the passing offense. So

910
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 2: I mean their run game over what the first nine

911
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 2: weeks was twenty seventh in EPA, since then eleventh, but

912
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 2: Donald the first nine weeks he was third in EPA

913
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 2: per play, first in yards per attempt. Since week ten,

914
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 2: twenty seventh in EPA per play, twelfth in yards per attempt.

915
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 2: So I just think this is a coin flip game.

916
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 2: You add in the potent, I know the scheduling spot

917
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 2: favors Seattle, but you add in the left potential left

918
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 2: tackle injuries. You add in Donald's oblique, which that just

919
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:50,919
Speaker 2: that can flare up at any time, especially with more

920
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 2: pass attempts, and it will have more of an impact

921
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 2: on your deeper passes. That's where you're generating your torque

922
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 2: and your power through your legs through your oblique, Like

923
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:03,839
Speaker 2: that could flare up at any time when I hit

924
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 2: two and he's gonna be under pressure. Now. In fairness,

925
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 2: the Rams haven't looked great, like something's just been off

926
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 2: over the past couple of weeks, Like whether it's their

927
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:16,360
Speaker 2: defense or one some weeks it's their offense. But I

928
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 2: just go back to that Week sixteen game like that

929
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 2: is the I mean, since Week sixteen, the Seahawks have

930
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 2: played the Panthers and the forty nine ers twice that

931
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:29,320
Speaker 2: they match up so well with. But after sixteen full weeks,

932
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 2: we clear the Rams were the clear I watched that

933
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 2: game with a bet on Seattle and said, I got

934
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,399
Speaker 2: lucky even though the Rams weren't healthy, and the Rams

935
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 2: are clearly head and shoulders above the Seahawks. Now, since then,

936
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 2: I've upgraded Seattle some downgraded the Rams a little bit,

937
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,239
Speaker 2: but I still think this is basically a coin flip game.

938
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I make it Seattle minus one,

939
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 2: adjusting for some things. But you throw in the Darnald

940
00:50:55,840 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 2: injury situation, I think is more like a coin flip.

941
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 2: So I just give me an expensive three. But for

942
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 2: the contest, will take two and a half and McDonald

943
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: versus McVeigh, you go back. It's really funny that you

944
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 2: had this year when McDonald got the better of him

945
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 2: in the first matchup, but the Rams won. McVeagh got

946
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:21,360
Speaker 2: the better of him in the second matchup, but the

947
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 2: Seahawks won. McVeigh got the better of him in Baltimore

948
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 2: when he had the number one defense, you know, in

949
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: the rain traveling across the country. The Rams dominated the

950
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 2: Ravens defense that day. So this battle is super fun.

951
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 2: But I think we're at the peak of the market

952
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 2: on the Seahawks after some blowout wins. I'll take Stafford

953
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 2: and the points and trust McVeigh to come up with

954
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:50,919
Speaker 2: a much better game plan than last week. Do worry

955
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 2: about the special teams advantage for Seattle that could end

956
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 2: up flipping this game, but I do think the ability

957
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: to generate pressure aarn Donald is going to be huge

958
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 2: here for multiple reasons. So give me the Rams.

959
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 3: That might not have been eighteen minutes, but that was

960
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 3: like a me Buffalo Vee Jacksonville Buffalo level breakdown right there.

961
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:11,880
Speaker 4: That was. That was some good stuff.

962
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 3: Man. Yeah. So I'm gonna get to my bet and

963
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 3: then I'll just talk about the game as a whole.

964
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 3: So for my third pick and the sixth overall of

965
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 3: the Conference Championship six pack, I'm gonna go with Sam

966
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:32,240
Speaker 3: Donald longest rush under six and a half yards. Now,

967
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,920
Speaker 3: he's done this only four times. He's gone over this

968
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 3: four times all year in eighteen starts, last five games,

969
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 3: he's been under.

970
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 4: He's dealing with the OBIK, so there is a chance

971
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 4: for the endgame injury.

972
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 3: Also Zach Scharbonay ACL injury, Kenneth Walker fourteen to fourteen

973
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 3: backfield carries once Scharbonay went down before garbage time, and

974
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 3: then Bayless Jones got the last six.

975
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 4: I believe it was.

976
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 3: So I don't think you're gonna want Donald to run

977
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 3: at all. You're probably gonna also encourage him just not

978
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 3: to scramble, and he might just do that anyway because

979
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 3: of the other week.

980
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:07,440
Speaker 4: But I just it would probably take a scramble to

981
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 4: get this.

982
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 3: I don't think he's gonna scramble as much, and you're

983
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:12,839
Speaker 3: not gonna call any designed runs for him.

984
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 4: You use the tight end barner in short yardage.

985
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 3: So really, I don't think there's many avenues for him

986
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 3: to get this unless there's just like a wide open Wayne,

987
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 3: and even then you know sometimes you don't know he's

988
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 3: needs six yards for the first sky down. So I

989
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 3: think a lot of ways for this to go under

990
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 3: for Donald here, who's again done this only four times

991
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 3: in eighteen starts. As far as the game before, you share.

992
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:43,320
Speaker 2: Your thoughts in the game, I ask your trivia question. Okay, out.

993
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 2: The Rams have played nine teen games this year, yeap,

994
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 2: how many times have they lost by more than three?

995
00:53:57,360 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 3: Uh?

996
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:00,760
Speaker 4: Off top of head, but now without looking I would

997
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 4: say none.

998
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: One on a walk on a walk off blocked field

999
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 2: goal for no reason.

1000
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I was not that that I blocked that out.

1001
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 3: That was you had.

1002
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 4: That out and that's it.

1003
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 2: So like again they should have won. There was a

1004
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 2: meaningless return blocked field goal. There are other losses this

1005
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 2: year by three and overtime, by three, by one and

1006
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 2: overtime and by three. So you want to talk about

1007
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 2: a team that's ah going to be in every game,

1008
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 2: it's the Rams.

1009
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:42,799
Speaker 3: Yeah. And that's why I think Darnold's long run is

1010
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,759
Speaker 3: just high because you are expecting more dropbacks, which again

1011
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 3: it's going to take a scramble I think to get

1012
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:50,799
Speaker 3: this because they don't call design runs for them, and

1013
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:51,799
Speaker 3: especially with the old week.

1014
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 4: But as far as the game, I'm kind of tour because.

1015
00:54:57,920 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 3: I think I agree.

1016
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:01,720
Speaker 4: I think the the Seahawks.

1017
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 3: Are the wrong side in that week sixteen games. It's

1018
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:06,399
Speaker 3: one of those things where it's really hard to kind

1019
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 3: of balance like recency versus year long and then like

1020
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 3: factor everything in because I do think you did see

1021
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 3: some weirdness on Thursday, you know, divisional opponents, second matchup.

1022
00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 3: I mean, all he'll just broke foos. I mean like

1023
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 3: it's just a thirty eight thirty seven game. You probably

1024
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 3: have to throw that out. Like you said, now, what

1025
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 3: worries me about the Rams? Since you gave the case

1026
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 3: for the Rams, I'll just kind of give the case

1027
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:37,280
Speaker 3: for the Seahawks.

1028
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 4: I don't think I'm going to be on the Seahawks.

1029
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 3: I'm leaning that way in all in all, in full disclosure,

1030
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 3: well at two and a half that is, I make

1031
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 3: it about I make it about three. But the Rams

1032
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 3: have I think the travel might be that thing that

1033
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 3: looks off with the Rams. And the reason I say

1034
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 3: that is because it's like, Okay, we know that Stafford.

1035
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 3: It's not just the code like Stafford. They've won games

1036
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 3: with Stafford in the code. Now they've done it. I mean,

1037
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 3: he looked even in the game they watch last year

1038
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 3: in Philly, looked really good. It's not that. But let's

1039
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 3: go back and look at the Rams, like last eight games,

1040
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 3: even it was a road game at Carolina they lost,

1041
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 3: that game was it was a much tougher game than

1042
00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:28,360
Speaker 3: I think they anticipated. Then they go to Arizona, which fine,

1043
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 3: but and then they played Detroit at home. Now Detroit

1044
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:33,840
Speaker 3: notoriously one of the most physical teams, one of the

1045
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,480
Speaker 3: toughest teams, you know, one of the toughest teams to

1046
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 3: like play and then go, you know, play again the

1047
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 3: next week and whatnot.

1048
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:41,359
Speaker 2: So they so.

1049
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 3: That was their home game. Their only other home game

1050
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 3: was against Arizona. So they've had six. This will be

1051
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:50,240
Speaker 3: their sixth road game, seventh road game in nine games.

1052
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 3: They didn't get to buy. They tried to get to buy,

1053
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: they didn't get to buy in the game against Arizona

1054
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 3: and gay team. They were at home. It was the

1055
00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 3: most recent home game, only only home game in their

1056
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:04,760
Speaker 3: last full of five. They were down twenty to sixteen

1057
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 3: in the second half against Arizona in Week eighteen. So

1058
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 3: this team might just really actually be tired. I know

1059
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 3: it's a very simple thing, but they might be tired.

1060
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 3: This is an indoor team. The next team known for

1061
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 3: not being great in cold weather.

1062
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 4: I don't know if it's the cold weather, it's just

1063
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 4: more and this is another outdoor game, third third in

1064
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 4: the row.

1065
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 3: But it just might be taking its toll because yeah,

1066
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 3: Adams is back, he doesn't quite look like himself. Blake

1067
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 3: is back, doesn't quite look like himself. Now that could

1068
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 3: change this week Dotson did Dotso was Yeah, No, Dotson

1069
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:49,200
Speaker 3: did look like himself, no questions about that. But there's

1070
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 3: still some key players now on top of that the fatigue, Like,

1071
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 3: is the fatigue or is it just like the busyness

1072
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 3: of it all catching up to the coaching staff, because

1073
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 3: I don't know what the hell that was with McVeigh

1074
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:04,720
Speaker 3: last week, and I'm kind of getting a little At

1075
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 3: one point, I thought I was kind of with you.

1076
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 3: I thought McVay maybe just had this master plan and

1077
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 3: he was setting things up. But I don't know if

1078
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 3: there was anything to that mid season swoon in one

1079
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 3: to three personnel. Now if he was just like I

1080
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 3: don't know, if it was just like an experiment that

1081
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 3: he thought was gonna work and he was just kind

1082
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 3: of searching for answers.

1083
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 4: Because like the one thing about the Rams is they.

1084
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 3: Have like this really big drop off where it's like

1085
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 3: you have Adams and you have in Nakula and then

1086
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 3: you have like nobody at receiver that they trust anyway,

1087
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 3: Like they like whatever, Whittington, Smith, Mumfield, They've all, you know,

1088
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 3: I guess shown up at different times, but the Bay

1089
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 3: could just trust any No.

1090
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 4: Last week, Tyer Higby only played.

1091
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 3: In the red zone. That's the only time he ran

1092
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 3: routes in the red zone. Davis Allen ran one route.

1093
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 3: Those guys have been like big parts of the offense

1094
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 3: at different times. Ferguson is like the third down guy.

1095
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:56,120
Speaker 3: He sees like the target like five targets, catches one

1096
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:57,919
Speaker 3: of them, like for like the eighth time this year.

1097
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 3: I'm just wondering if it is just like still searching

1098
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 3: for answers in the second half of the divisional round,

1099
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 3: and so like, there are these things that for me

1100
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 3: with the Rams that it's like I do agree with you,

1101
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 3: like on principle about everything that's happened, but in terms

1102
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 3: of projecting forward, I I'm not as confident that the

1103
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 3: Rams get it done here because something is clearly affecting though.

1104
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 4: And then on top of that, like they have that

1105
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 4: that that young pass.

1106
00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 3: Game coordinator who's getting like interviews, Shoe who's getting interviewed,

1107
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,040
Speaker 3: So like, is it just like the busyness come on

1108
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 3: with the fatigue, Like it's just they just doing too much.

1109
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 3: They were they were one three personnel offense for like

1110
00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 3: a mid part of the year. The minute the playoffs hit,

1111
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 3: they go back to being heavy, uh, one to one personnel.

1112
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,720
Speaker 3: They were one three for for like the past six

1113
00:59:43,760 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 3: weeks really heavy, and really the past since the buy,

1114
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 3: you know, they were they were leaning into the tight end.

1115
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 3: So it's like there hasn't been much consistency. The preparation

1116
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 3: has been questionable. And this is like in the most

1117
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:58,480
Speaker 3: important game of the year, the preparation was questionable, and Stafford,

1118
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 3: the guy who beats the blitz with his eyes closed,

1119
01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 3: was just like flumixed by the blitz and having and

1120
01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 3: like his calls that the line were slow, it was loud.

1121
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 3: It's gonna be like this is the twelfth Man, it's

1122
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 3: your third straight road game, it's your seventh and nine games,

1123
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 3: one of your home games against Detroit in which you

1124
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 3: had to win a forty one thirty four shootout followed

1125
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:20,600
Speaker 3: three days later by like a thirty eight to thirty

1126
01:00:20,640 --> 01:00:21,920
Speaker 3: seven shootout loss.

1127
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:24,320
Speaker 4: So I just I think the.

1128
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 3: Rams may actually be out of gas here again. This

1129
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:29,960
Speaker 3: is it's not this is not like you can't it's

1130
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 3: hard to like put that in quantify that, like, I

1131
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,440
Speaker 3: think you give Seattle a little extra boost. You know,

1132
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:37,200
Speaker 3: it's like tens of a point for for the rest advantage.

1133
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:39,440
Speaker 3: But I do think getting the buy was big for Seattle.

1134
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:41,920
Speaker 3: And I do think that part of what the offense.

1135
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 3: The offense has gone into a show. It hasn't been

1136
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 3: as good we talked about this first half. They disappear

1137
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 3: at times. But I do think that there was more

1138
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 3: of a method to the madness with Seattle then there

1139
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 3: may be with McVeigh. Which is what the words, because

1140
01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 3: with Seattle, I think they have gotten more conservative. I

1141
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 3: think they've with their defense completely healthy, because remember they

1142
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 3: were missing a mount of worry to start the year.

1143
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 4: They were missing love for most of the year, they

1144
01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 4: were missing who am.

1145
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 3: I missing it? Like uh Witherspoon for most of the

1146
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 3: first half of the year. Secondary is healthy. Once that

1147
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 3: secondary got healthy, they became dominant. Their lights out against

1148
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:20,080
Speaker 3: the run. No one could throw on them. Receivers can't

1149
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:24,440
Speaker 3: do jack squad against them. So who goes like the exception,

1150
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 3: which is a promising thing for the Rams, But I

1151
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:28,760
Speaker 3: don't I don't know how much stocks to put in

1152
01:01:28,760 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 3: that game.

1153
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:32,800
Speaker 2: Now with Donald, I mean were fully healthy that game

1154
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 2: and the I know, I know.

1155
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 3: I know. I'm just saying like it was a it

1156
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 3: was a four day rest like I do kind of,

1157
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 3: But there.

1158
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:41,640
Speaker 2: Was also ramscs too on the road after playing like

1159
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 2: you said the Lions, but.

1160
01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 3: Like okay, but since then, the Rams have just traveled,

1161
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 3: Like I know, you keep the track of these miles. Uh,

1162
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 3: Like the miles the Rams traveled has been absurd. It's

1163
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 3: like at Atlanta, back home to Carolina, to Chicago, all

1164
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 3: these games, like it's just a lot compared to the

1165
01:01:58,000 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 3: Seahawks who got to play the same team to I

1166
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:03,320
Speaker 3: rested in between. So like you talk about game planning,

1167
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 3: the Seahawks have probably been game planning for the Rams

1168
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 3: for weeks now too, so like like, yes, I've put

1169
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 3: stock into that game, but like confidence wise, I lean Seahawks.

1170
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:17,080
Speaker 3: That's that's just my my look at it. I just

1171
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 3: I do think the Rams can very well win this game.

1172
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,320
Speaker 3: I have a Super Bowl last my last remaining Super

1173
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 3: Bowl ticket is on the Rams, so obviously have confidence

1174
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:24,959
Speaker 3: in them.

1175
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 4: Stafford can always do it.

1176
01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 3: But there are just certain things I'm seeing, like even

1177
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 3: even a play calling at the end of the game

1178
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 3: last week where it was just like a sideline ball

1179
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 3: to Parkinson filed by a sideline ball to Terren Ferguson.

1180
01:02:38,840 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 3: It's like something is just telling me that McVeigh doesn't

1181
01:02:42,160 --> 01:02:45,080
Speaker 3: fully he's still searching for ances, and I just think

1182
01:02:45,640 --> 01:02:48,320
Speaker 3: you're going up against his defense that has been it

1183
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 3: has been arrested. You know that it's been kind of

1184
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 3: just sitting pretty here waiting for this third matchup, like

1185
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 3: God's been the only guy, the only coach really that

1186
01:02:57,120 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 3: you could say has truly because Shanahan conquered Fangio, mcdonnald's

1187
01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 3: the only coach that really has had Shanahan's number. Now.

1188
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 3: McVeigh has really been the only coach that has really

1189
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 3: gotten off on this defense this year, especially the healthy

1190
01:03:11,320 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 3: version of it.

1191
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 4: But does that happen a second time?

1192
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 3: I kind of lean the opposite way, And if the

1193
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 3: Rams have a normal offensive game, like a normal seventeen

1194
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 3: to twenty three, twenty twenty twenty three, I think the Seahawks.

1195
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:32,760
Speaker 3: I think the Rams defense is the week is unit

1196
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 3: on this field, not the Seahawks offense. Even with the

1197
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 3: Sharburn injury, even if the left tackle missus, I still

1198
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 3: think the Rams defense is the weakest unit on the field.

1199
01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:45,640
Speaker 3: So that's why I just lean Seattle. I get it

1200
01:03:46,040 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 3: with the Rams. I get what happened in weeks have seen,

1201
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:52,880
Speaker 3: but something's off and like it's just kind of been

1202
01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:56,520
Speaker 3: in these playoffs. It's kind of just been going according

1203
01:03:56,520 --> 01:04:00,040
Speaker 3: to these like narratives, and like it just is it

1204
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:01,680
Speaker 3: hard for me to ignore at this point, I don't

1205
01:04:01,720 --> 01:04:03,280
Speaker 3: know what it is. I could just I could it

1206
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 3: could just be I could just be dead wrong and

1207
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 3: and the Rams just show up and do what they

1208
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 3: normally do. But something is not right with the Ram

1209
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:12,000
Speaker 3: and it hasn't been for a while, and I just

1210
01:04:12,040 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 3: I just think, I just think they would have gassed.

1211
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 3: And the Seahawks going to the twelfth Man is just

1212
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 3: not where I want want them to be. So I

1213
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 3: do lean, I do lean Seahawks in this one.

1214
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:25,760
Speaker 2: I will say, I mean, yeah, all those are valid points,

1215
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 2: and that the spot is definitely concerned now if they

1216
01:04:28,520 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 2: don't go thirteen personnality, that thought that doesn't really matter,

1217
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 2: like it your thirteen personnel advantage.

1218
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 3: Like like the continuity just like it because it doesn't.

1219
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 3: It just seem a little like the play like the

1220
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 3: play calling being what it was and just like the

1221
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 3: underperformance early in games to the way they're forced to

1222
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 3: win on like these weight drives, Like you don't think

1223
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 3: some of that kind of goes hand in hand with

1224
01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:49,919
Speaker 3: just like the everyone different guys are playing every week,

1225
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 3: Like it's just just just big Stafford being unprepared. Like

1226
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:54,360
Speaker 3: I feel like it's it's kind of feeds into each

1227
01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:54,920
Speaker 3: other a little.

1228
01:04:55,560 --> 01:05:01,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's possible that. I mean they I mean still

1229
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:04,000
Speaker 2: since I mean they scored forty five to forty one,

1230
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:10,280
Speaker 2: thirty seven. Yeah, twenty four to thirty seven, thirty four

1231
01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 2: on the road in the playoffs and then twenty so

1232
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:14,120
Speaker 2: I mean it's not like they're often it's been bad

1233
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:17,680
Speaker 2: and now they're finally healthy. And the Seattle like I

1234
01:05:17,720 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 2: just think because of all of this, like we're the

1235
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:22,240
Speaker 2: Seattle defense I think is at the very peak. And

1236
01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:23,760
Speaker 2: like at the end of the day, it's like Stafford

1237
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:29,040
Speaker 2: is going up against Donald. One is a healthy offensive line,

1238
01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 2: the other does and it's Donald under pressure with an

1239
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 2: oblique injury. The other thing is the Seattle defense. I

1240
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:35,840
Speaker 2: think we're at the very peak. I think that the

1241
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:39,800
Speaker 2: best unit in the NFL them are the Texans, but

1242
01:05:39,920 --> 01:05:43,960
Speaker 2: like they got shredded by the Rams. Around that game,

1243
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 2: they played, you know, the forty nine ers with injuries twice,

1244
01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 2: the Panthers, they played Max Brosmer, Philip Rivers after a

1245
01:05:55,600 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 2: five year hiatus, Kirk Cousins without Drake London, the Titan,

1246
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 2: that's who they've played since week eleven, And like, who

1247
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:11,560
Speaker 2: in that realm scares you found to be fair.

1248
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:14,600
Speaker 3: We're coming off like even with the injuries like they

1249
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 3: like you said, you're because you had the under in

1250
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 3: that game, which is a great call, but like they

1251
01:06:17,720 --> 01:06:20,240
Speaker 3: were coming off a string of just like thirty forty

1252
01:06:20,280 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 3: forty thirty like they they were like they were, and

1253
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 3: it's not like they just it's not like they just

1254
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 3: you know, held them down like they held the Nyers

1255
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 3: at three and six points, like they held the bro

1256
01:06:29,480 --> 01:06:32,680
Speaker 3: They shut out Rosmer, they held Cousins under ten without one.

1257
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:36,439
Speaker 3: So it's like they're still flying up to expectations here,

1258
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:39,120
Speaker 3: like to at least make me nervous with like Stafford

1259
01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:42,520
Speaker 3: outdoors third straight road games, seven and nine games play calling,

1260
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:44,800
Speaker 3: because like if the Rams play calling isn't firing on

1261
01:06:45,080 --> 01:06:49,480
Speaker 3: all cylinders, like what do you like that? And and

1262
01:06:49,480 --> 01:06:49,840
Speaker 3: and then the.

1263
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 2: Big thing, Donald could also just be a disaster.

1264
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:54,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, no, that that that's that's very true. And

1265
01:06:54,960 --> 01:07:00,960
Speaker 3: that's I mean, that's why I says.

1266
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,959
Speaker 2: Pressure like Donald, what is he done all.

1267
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:01,720
Speaker 3: Year six.

1268
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:03,840
Speaker 2: Over?

1269
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 3: Yeah? But and that's it kind of goes both ways

1270
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:09,479
Speaker 3: because that one. On one hand, I'm like, yeah, that's

1271
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:11,919
Speaker 3: really I mean that is the Rams I think best

1272
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 3: like way to victory to like.

1273
01:07:13,760 --> 01:07:15,520
Speaker 4: Not even have to ask their offense to do too much.

1274
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:20,240
Speaker 3: But it's like in this matchup this year even it's

1275
01:07:20,280 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 3: essentially been even you know Rams. Uh, but Darnold threw

1276
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 3: six pincks. Yeah, Like that's that's concerning for the Rams.

1277
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:34,120
Speaker 3: If you ask me, like, is he gonna throw that

1278
01:07:34,160 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 3: many picks? Like, it's just like all likelihood, no, just

1279
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 3: based on raw statistics. So I just think there are

1280
01:07:41,840 --> 01:07:44,920
Speaker 3: more concerning like elements for me in like I agree

1281
01:07:45,160 --> 01:07:46,919
Speaker 3: it starts out as kind of this coin flip game.

1282
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:48,000
Speaker 3: It's just I see there.

1283
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 2: We gotta remember there were Rams are healthier now than

1284
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. Like the Rams that their healthy offensive line,

1285
01:07:54,560 --> 01:07:56,720
Speaker 2: Adam's back. The Seahawks have a quarterback with an a

1286
01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 2: blaque injury, which I'll give it a ten to fifteen

1287
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:02,240
Speaker 2: percent to flares up and he like this last week

1288
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:04,920
Speaker 2: he was grimacing and his deep balls were affected and

1289
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 2: he was getting to ball.

1290
01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1291
01:08:06,760 --> 01:08:08,960
Speaker 2: Ye, heat on the sidelines, and then you might have

1292
01:08:09,000 --> 01:08:12,880
Speaker 2: a third string left tackle against Jared Verse Like that's

1293
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 2: not ideal. Agast quarterback cannot handle pressure. So we'll see

1294
01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:19,720
Speaker 2: all fair points. I can't wait. I think it's just

1295
01:08:19,720 --> 01:08:21,559
Speaker 2: going to come down to coaching. I think these teams

1296
01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:24,520
Speaker 2: are really evenly matched. All right, let's get to the touchdowns.

1297
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:29,040
Speaker 3: All right. Let me just recap stick back so stuck.

1298
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:32,680
Speaker 3: You have the Broncos first quarter plus a half. You

1299
01:08:32,840 --> 01:08:36,280
Speaker 3: have kaishon Booty underto and a half receptions, and you

1300
01:08:36,320 --> 01:08:38,960
Speaker 3: have the Rams plus two and a half. But you're

1301
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 3: waiting for a three to play it if people don't

1302
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:45,160
Speaker 3: see it come across track in the app, I have

1303
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:48,160
Speaker 3: the Broncos full game plus five and a half. They

1304
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,000
Speaker 3: end up joining you on the first quarter as well.

1305
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 3: I'm going stitt him over thirty one and a half

1306
01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:54,120
Speaker 3: pass a tense I having a thirty four and a half.

1307
01:08:54,120 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 3: So it's pretty big doubta there, even if the line

1308
01:08:57,640 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 3: ticks up. And my third bet is Darnold under six

1309
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:04,599
Speaker 3: and a half long rush, which I love, just hasn't

1310
01:09:04,600 --> 01:09:07,320
Speaker 3: done it much and like you said, could be some

1311
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:11,280
Speaker 3: injury issues there as well. All right, now it's time

1312
01:09:11,600 --> 01:09:18,679
Speaker 3: for any Time Touchdown Parway presented by DraftKings. We got

1313
01:09:18,720 --> 01:09:20,880
Speaker 3: we got an interesting one for this week. You want

1314
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:23,000
Speaker 3: to start it off since you've got the shorter odds.

1315
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 3: I know you like a long shot, so you can

1316
01:09:24,479 --> 01:09:28,360
Speaker 3: give your I mean, talk about your long shot and

1317
01:09:28,400 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 3: then then give to give me one you're actually going first,

1318
01:09:30,840 --> 01:09:32,759
Speaker 3: and then get to the long shots and then I'll follow.

1319
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:35,920
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go with Davante Adams. Uh No one

1320
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:39,920
Speaker 2: can run on Seattle's defense, So I think in the

1321
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 2: red zone Adams is going to get plenty of looks.

1322
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,920
Speaker 2: So I think there's a really good chance he gets

1323
01:09:45,920 --> 01:09:47,960
Speaker 2: in the end zone here little concerning only had one

1324
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,040
Speaker 2: catch on eight targets in the first meeting, didn't play

1325
01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:52,880
Speaker 2: in the second meeting. But I think he's gonna get

1326
01:09:52,880 --> 01:09:54,840
Speaker 2: a lot of looks. They have some cheat code plays

1327
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:57,920
Speaker 2: for him down near the goal line. So let's let's

1328
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:01,439
Speaker 2: go with Adams get in because you have a long

1329
01:10:01,439 --> 01:10:04,320
Speaker 2: shot that would be it wouldn't be great to combine

1330
01:10:04,320 --> 01:10:07,160
Speaker 2: with my long shot that I also played separately Nate Atkins.

1331
01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:12,240
Speaker 2: He went on he bet seventeen plays last week, seventeen

1332
01:10:12,240 --> 01:10:16,280
Speaker 2: pass who plays fifteen routes? And I think he has

1333
01:10:16,320 --> 01:10:19,400
Speaker 2: twenty catches in his career, four or five touchdowns over

1334
01:10:19,439 --> 01:10:23,000
Speaker 2: the past two years. He had a touchdown against the Jets.

1335
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,840
Speaker 2: I think that Peyton has to get creative here. Backup

1336
01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:29,160
Speaker 2: quarterbacks like to rely on, you know o their tight

1337
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:32,120
Speaker 2: ends and h backs. I think there's you're gonna have

1338
01:10:32,160 --> 01:10:37,280
Speaker 2: some heavier personnel. I can see, like and mentioned the

1339
01:10:37,320 --> 01:10:39,720
Speaker 2: bad red zone Patriots defense, that's where Atkins is gonna

1340
01:10:39,720 --> 01:10:42,360
Speaker 2: have to score from. You're like, I could see, you're

1341
01:10:42,400 --> 01:10:44,280
Speaker 2: gonna get like a Stidham roll out to the right,

1342
01:10:44,600 --> 01:10:48,720
Speaker 2: Atkins slips out to the left or vice versa, and

1343
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:51,799
Speaker 2: his wide open. And that's the Patriots rundy is legit

1344
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 2: now that it's fully healthy. I don't think the Bronx

1345
01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:56,000
Speaker 2: is gonna have a ton of success running in the

1346
01:10:56,040 --> 01:11:00,400
Speaker 2: red zone. You can attack these linebackers through the air.

1347
01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:03,439
Speaker 2: So I think Nate Atkins has a shot here. So yeah,

1348
01:11:03,439 --> 01:11:05,240
Speaker 2: I played some thirty five to one, thirty to one.

1349
01:11:05,320 --> 01:11:07,240
Speaker 2: I think right now at drackings it's twenty five to one,

1350
01:11:07,320 --> 01:11:08,920
Speaker 2: So I took a shot there, but the first piece

1351
01:11:09,320 --> 01:11:10,839
Speaker 2: of this will go with Devonte Adams.

1352
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:15,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I like the Atkins and along those same lines,

1353
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:18,519
Speaker 3: I'm actually gonna go with Adam Trautman here. And it's

1354
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:20,639
Speaker 3: funny that you said h back because I was just joking.

1355
01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:22,880
Speaker 3: We just did the Touchdown Show and I was just

1356
01:11:22,960 --> 01:11:26,080
Speaker 3: joking with on the draftings segment. I believe I was

1357
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:29,080
Speaker 3: joking about how like Sean Payton is one of the

1358
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:31,120
Speaker 3: only coaches that probably actually has an h back like

1359
01:11:31,200 --> 01:11:33,640
Speaker 3: listed on the play sheet, like in his formation. He

1360
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:38,200
Speaker 3: just loves these like heavy personnel, you know, formations and whatnot.

1361
01:11:38,240 --> 01:11:40,000
Speaker 3: So I love the acts call. I'm going Troutman and

1362
01:11:40,520 --> 01:11:44,040
Speaker 3: for some similar reasons, he essentially has been People might

1363
01:11:44,080 --> 01:11:44,920
Speaker 3: not have noticed, but.

1364
01:11:45,280 --> 01:11:47,040
Speaker 4: He's essentially with the Broncos starting tight end.

1365
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:49,560
Speaker 3: Like Evan Ingram has seen his role kind of reduced

1366
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:54,040
Speaker 3: as the seasons progressed. Last week, Troutman and Ingram played

1367
01:11:54,040 --> 01:11:55,840
Speaker 3: the same amount of pas NEPs. The only difference was

1368
01:11:56,040 --> 01:11:58,160
Speaker 3: Troutman did pass block a lot more, but he also

1369
01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 3: passed block a lot more than he used he does

1370
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:03,720
Speaker 3: on the season. Like he passed, he passed blocked on

1371
01:12:04,120 --> 01:12:06,920
Speaker 3: about forty percent of his path of the plays that

1372
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 3: he was on the field for pass wise, and for

1373
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:13,080
Speaker 3: the season, that's's it's gonna be more around a third,

1374
01:12:13,080 --> 01:12:16,240
Speaker 3: about thirty percent or so. So he in this game,

1375
01:12:16,400 --> 01:12:18,600
Speaker 3: I expect him to run a few more routes on

1376
01:12:18,600 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 3: the plays he's on the field. And if you look

1377
01:12:20,200 --> 01:12:24,320
Speaker 3: in the red zone, he had six snaps, Evan Ingram

1378
01:12:24,320 --> 01:12:24,760
Speaker 3: had three.

1379
01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:27,120
Speaker 4: He ran three routes. Evan Ingram ran one.

1380
01:12:27,560 --> 01:12:31,000
Speaker 3: So uh like Evan Ingram ran the same amount of

1381
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:35,800
Speaker 3: red zone routes as from the sixth lineman. So Evan

1382
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:38,519
Speaker 3: Ingram just never been a touchdown guy. Troutman plays in

1383
01:12:38,520 --> 01:12:40,840
Speaker 3: the red zone just like Atkins. He's one of those

1384
01:12:40,840 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 3: guys that the other team, you know, if he blocks,

1385
01:12:44,720 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 3: he starts to play blocking, he can easily slip out,

1386
01:12:47,200 --> 01:12:50,519
Speaker 3: just like the lineman did last week. So, like you said,

1387
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:53,040
Speaker 3: Stidham has worked with both of these guys, a ton

1388
01:12:53,160 --> 01:12:55,719
Speaker 3: Atkins Troutman because they have been on the second team

1389
01:12:56,080 --> 01:13:01,439
Speaker 3: together for most of the year. Still, so like Troutman again,

1390
01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:05,479
Speaker 3: I think he's undervalued as essentially the Broncos starting tight end.

1391
01:13:06,080 --> 01:13:08,559
Speaker 3: And I like your Atkins play as well. But yeah,

1392
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:10,800
Speaker 3: probably not the best idea to parlay them. One or

1393
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:14,280
Speaker 3: the other probably hits. But Troutman is eleven to one

1394
01:13:14,280 --> 01:13:16,760
Speaker 3: at draftings, Atkins is twenty five to one.

1395
01:13:16,880 --> 01:13:18,679
Speaker 4: I think the market's undervaluing both.

1396
01:13:18,800 --> 01:13:24,040
Speaker 3: But our partway here Troutman Adams is twenty six to one.

1397
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:27,280
Speaker 3: So like those odds as well, especially you know, for

1398
01:13:27,439 --> 01:13:29,800
Speaker 3: such a proven guy in Adams to still get to

1399
01:13:29,840 --> 01:13:32,599
Speaker 3: twenty six to one with another starter on the other side,

1400
01:13:32,760 --> 01:13:35,680
Speaker 3: I think it's a great value. So that will be

1401
01:13:35,880 --> 01:13:38,839
Speaker 3: our anytime touchdown paraway presented by draft A little.

1402
01:13:38,760 --> 01:13:42,919
Speaker 2: Small, tiny chance that Atkins gets like a rush attempt

1403
01:13:42,920 --> 01:13:52,440
Speaker 2: at THEO, like like a shovel or something sneaky. Yeah,

1404
01:13:52,479 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 2: he's never having rush.

1405
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:57,479
Speaker 3: It's very if you play Adams, and if I play

1406
01:13:57,560 --> 01:14:00,599
Speaker 3: Atkins in Troutman, I'm almost certainly gonna have to hedge

1407
01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:03,680
Speaker 3: with h Prentice or I just I did be so

1408
01:14:03,760 --> 01:14:06,400
Speaker 3: mad at myself if it was Prentice that ended up

1409
01:14:06,439 --> 01:14:09,800
Speaker 3: scoring the touchdown, because like he's he's the fullback, he's

1410
01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:12,840
Speaker 3: kind of like another guy, and then that could But yeah,

1411
01:14:12,880 --> 01:14:15,400
Speaker 3: I agree, I think I think there's you're gonna get creative.

1412
01:14:15,400 --> 01:14:18,360
Speaker 3: You can't run on the Patriots traditionally and show Peyton

1413
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:19,040
Speaker 3: just hasn't done that.

1414
01:14:19,080 --> 01:14:21,679
Speaker 4: Oh, y're like talk about our touchdown partly.

1415
01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:25,000
Speaker 2: Our producer just said Atkins, Trauman and Adams.

1416
01:14:27,200 --> 01:14:30,080
Speaker 3: Deca, okay, let's do Hey, you might have to just

1417
01:14:30,120 --> 01:14:33,400
Speaker 3: do go that with the official part way. But I

1418
01:14:33,560 --> 01:14:36,360
Speaker 3: thought to say, like, we've had some crazy bad luck.

1419
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:38,800
Speaker 3: You had to keep getting one.

1420
01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:41,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you had the JAYMN more in that time.

1421
01:14:41,320 --> 01:14:43,360
Speaker 3: And I think game will ended up scoring like tour

1422
01:14:43,400 --> 01:14:46,360
Speaker 3: I I forget, but last week, who's supposed to be

1423
01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:47,960
Speaker 3: catching that Kable Williams touchdown?

1424
01:14:48,479 --> 01:14:50,160
Speaker 4: It's supposed to be coach Torwood.

1425
01:14:50,640 --> 01:14:55,599
Speaker 3: But yeah, I was just ah man, but hey, we've

1426
01:14:55,640 --> 01:14:57,920
Speaker 3: been we've been clokes. We've been hitting a good amount

1427
01:14:57,960 --> 01:15:00,800
Speaker 3: of these, uh and same and had you killed it

1428
01:15:00,800 --> 01:15:02,720
Speaker 3: this year on the on the Monday mynight dogs as well.

1429
01:15:02,760 --> 01:15:04,719
Speaker 3: So I think we're in a good spot here. And yeah,

1430
01:15:04,720 --> 01:15:07,320
Speaker 3: maybe sprinkle on that eight hundred to one add Adkins

1431
01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:11,120
Speaker 3: to Troutman and Adams and I mean, hey, we do

1432
01:15:11,240 --> 01:15:13,720
Speaker 3: like the Broncos. Not inconceivable they score two big band

1433
01:15:13,800 --> 01:15:17,519
Speaker 3: touchdowns and you know, like twenty to seventeen win or

1434
01:15:17,560 --> 01:15:20,599
Speaker 3: something like that. All right, that's gonna wrap it up.

1435
01:15:21,040 --> 01:15:23,120
Speaker 3: Shot to our sponsor DraftKings. If you want to tell

1436
01:15:23,479 --> 01:15:25,639
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01:15:28,400 --> 01:15:31,160
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1443
01:15:43,720 --> 01:15:45,600
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1445
01:15:50,040 --> 01:15:52,960
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1446
01:15:53,000 --> 01:15:59,720
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1447
01:16:11,400 --> 01:16:15,960
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