WEBVTT - Yields, Web3, Credit Suisse, Retail, And Cruises (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.520 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.000 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, we got 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:24.800 some p p I data tomorrow. That's the producer prices 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:29.200 in next, and then cp I Thursday. Wow, this is 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:31.840 disturbing image. Matt Miller just walked in with a huge 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:34.599 thing of peanut butter. Yes, well, I'll tell you what. 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:38.640 We have these machines upstairs and they grind the peanuts. 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:40.800 They make it fresh for you, so it doesn't take 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:43.040 anything like peanut butter, the worst thing in the word. 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:45.720 I'm telling you. It is so good and it's much 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.240 better for you than Jiff, which is my previous fat 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:52.720 Matt loved eating Jeff peanut butter or skippy, but skinny 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:56.720 Matt likes fresh ground peanuts. It's so much healthier. Alright, folks. 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:58.720 For those of that don't know, Matt's been on a 0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:01.640 diet for the last couple of months and has lost 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:05.520 a meaningful amount thirty three pound the end of July. 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:08.560 So there you go. Good for him. Ira save us 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.920 here Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.560 I've got inflation data over the next couple of days. 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:16.840 People like you tell me I need to pay attention. 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:19.720 What's the FED looking for when I get some of 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:22.119 these data points over the next couple of days. Well, 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:24.880 they're really hoping for them to be lower. Um. You know, 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:29.440 of course, Bloomberg Economics actually has a relatively high print 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:31.720 for or or things that it will be relatively high 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:34.760 print month on month. But if if the expectation is 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:38.200 met here on CPI, particularly core CPI being up only 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:42.080 zero point four uh instead of the zero point six 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:44.520 it was up last month, I think the FED will 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:46.520 kind of applaud that a little bit. And you know, 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:48.760 don't look at the headline number being up or down 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.360 a little bit, because there's you know, it's probably gonna 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:53.120 be up a little because gas prices are up a 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.280 little bit. But it's really the core inflation number that 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:58.560 is going to be the focus. I think that the 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.240 next month or two for for the FED and certainly 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:04.240 for market participants. What about retail sales. I've heard a 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:07.080 couple of people say that, you know, retail sales is 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.200 going to be a big number to pay attention to 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:13.360 this week. Yeah, so retail sales is always is always 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.519 a big number. In fact, I would say in this world, 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:18.520 it's really um the top three, you know, it kind 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:21.280 of has been eclipsed a little bit by CPI recently 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:25.200 in terms of market reaction and market function. But retail sales, 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:28.600 if it continues to slip, you know, X automobiles for example, 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.440 like it did last month, UM, then that certainly is 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:34.679 a sign that these higher prices are leading to demand destruction. 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.120 And I think that that's the real um, you know, 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:41.000 real concern for UM for the economy in general and 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.600 things like corporate earnings. Will those keep up because if 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:46.839 obviously its top line revenues start to fall significantly, it's 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.400 not going to be good for risk assets. UM. You know. 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:51.400 But but then again, like one of the reasons why 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:57.639 falling headline CPI is important and certainly headline UM core 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:00.920 inflation is that that real wage is might wind up 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:03.040 being higher. Right, the wage numbers that we got last 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:05.639 week weren't that bad, you know, so so bad in 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.200 what sense bad for the FED or bad for the economy. Well, 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:10.800 I when I say weren't that bad, I mean that 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.600 they were high enough that it looks like real growth 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:16.359 is still going to be positive. And that's where, um, 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.440 I think the the issue is right, nominal nominal growth 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:23.160 rates have just skyrocketed in part because of prices, but 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.880 but demand has kept up right, So so that's why 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.080 those retail sales numbers that we're going to get on 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:31.200 Friday are going to be, you know, pretty important facts. 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:33.800 So I just saw pretty good walking by the Bloomberg 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:36.800 Interactive Broker studio and I brought her in here, um 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:38.760 put her in front of a mike because Cretty, you're 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:41.160 the one from whom I heard this. I think you 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:44.760 were talking yesterday with Carol masser Um on Bloomberg Business 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:48.400 Week and saying that maybe the retail sales number is 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:53.000 as important or more important than, um the CPI number. Yeah, 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:56.880 the logic there was that, uh, if the CPI number 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:58.960 and the PPN number, basically it's becoming a question of 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.280 the margin of of deceleration when it comes to the 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:05.000 inflation figures. But the retail number is different because it's 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:09.080 speaking more to the demand side rather than the supply side, 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.480 whereas the CP and PPI is more supply side driven. 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.080 The retail numbers that we're going to say, are people 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:16.279 still spending and it's coming out of time when a 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:19.160 lot of people are kind of expecting inventory levels that 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:22.440 are extremely high and therefore these massive sales and discounted 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:24.919 prices for the retail sector. So the question here is 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:27.719 if net net the GDP is going to kind of 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:29.640 um or I should say that the net sales are 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:32.120 going to drop in the fourth quarter going into holiday season. 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:34.640 What you want to make up for the lower prices 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.839 or the lower sales is higher demand UM And that's 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.000 why the retail sales number could couldn't make or break 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:42.400 that theory that people are still spending into the holiday 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:45.560 season rather than cutting back because of UM inflation or 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.640 higher prices or disposal when you do your Christmas shopping. 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:52.200 And Matt I don't completely disagree with that. So so 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:55.159 the number within the retail sales number on Friday you 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:57.640 really want to be focused on is that retail sales 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:02.120 control group because it that is all the what inputs 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.520 into GDP that looks at at overall prices. Remember this 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.960 is a September number, so obviously going into like like 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.599 you know, it's it's accurate to say, hey, are we 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:14.919 going to have a decent holiday sales numbers? Um, and 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:16.919 September is a little bit early for that. But but 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:19.680 still if we have a zero point three as the 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:22.359 consensus is expecting for that control group, that will be 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.200 a pretty decent number. And actually that would mean that 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:29.160 real control group sales was basically flat. And and you know, 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:32.200 if demand continues to keep up with these price increases 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:33.680 and things are good. And by the way, Matt, I 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:36.600 just looked while we were talking, um, good things to 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.080 go to that that fresh peanut butter, because peanut butter 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.800 in the CPI report is up you know so far 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.120 this year. So you are free in the Bloomberg pantry. 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:50.400 But is a poultry and like eggs like up or something. 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:54.480 Some some sectors in the food are are are quite 0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:58.040 significantly um. But keep in mind like like things like 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:02.520 like the the actual commodities that are in CPI, UM, 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.839 you know that that's for the consumer, so so a 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:06.600 lot of that is still shipping costs. So things like 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:09.720 gasoline prices being much higher means that it's, you know, 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:13.080 just cost more to get the good stores. All right, 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:15.640 Skippy superchunk is the way to go. And I would 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:17.880 die on that hill. Iro Jersey, chief US interest rate 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.640 strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, Thank you so much. We didn't 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:23.239 even get to talk soccer. That's a wasted opportunity. Tomorrow, 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:29.640 all right, we'll do it tomorrow. Let's bring our next 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:34.279 guest professional big time. Cole Speed, President portfolio manager of 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:38.760 Smeet Capital Managements. Some really really good performance there. Well, 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:41.400 I'm looking at this market. It's just been a blood 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:44.919 bath all year. I mean, I've got cash in my pocket. 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:49.000 Should I just leave it there? What should I be doing? Well? 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.000 To your point, what we're witnessing this year is what 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:54.240 we call stock market failure, okay, and this is the 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:56.880 seeds of this were sowned by the spectator of euphoria 0:06:56.920 --> 0:07:00.599 that we saw um in twenty one, whether it be 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:05.240 Spacts or the Robin Hood Yolo traders, as Spencer Jacob 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:08.559 from the Wall Street Journalist book lays out um. And 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:11.560 so we're just we're bearing what we have to do 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:13.920 with based on this, and by the way, we might 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:16.240 not be done with this bear market until Matt has 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:21.280 his next neat whiskey just okay. So so I just 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.720 say that because to your point, I think the topest 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:27.840 thing for investors right now is some investors want to 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.280 go right back to what was just popular okay. In 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:34.560 other words, there is a large population of the professional 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:37.080 stock pickers out there that are hiding out in big 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.920 cap tech because they think they'll pass through price pricing 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:43.440 better than anyone else. The question is will the valuation 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:46.520 protect them even if they can pass on pricing On 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:48.760 the flip side, where you'd have to go, in our 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.960 opinion to make you know, wonderful money looking forward is 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:54.320 you need to go into economically sensitive places that have 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:57.280 been bombed out based on the circumstances, based on the 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:01.720 fear of macroeconomics, based on the FED I think to break, etcetera. 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:04.680 And that's where it looks like the best prospects are 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:09.080 for making money in stocks. You know, I uh, there 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:13.480 were a lot of hot stocks meme stocks during the 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.600 pandemic that I've gotten crushed and most of them didn't 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:20.320 make any money. But I, in in my health pivot, 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.080 have founded another way of taking the edge off. When 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:26.000 I get home, it doesn't involve alcohol, and I'm wondering 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:28.640 if you have taken a look at weed stocks. I mean, 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:32.439 talk about cheap valuations. Some of these stocks are trading 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:37.800 at two times earnings and they're trading at three times sorry, 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:40.160 two times sales and three times earnings. I mean they're 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.720 they're trading for very low valuations and they make money, 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:50.040 and the outlook has to be right, right. Uh yeah, 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:51.760 I just don't know how society is better off if 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.640 we're all high to be. But you should be worried 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:57.400 about making money. You're not making value judgments, you're not 0:08:57.400 --> 0:09:00.000 making ethical calls, right You you want to make money, 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.080 you want to maximize profitability, and you want to buy 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:06.120 stuff that's cheap. I can take all the ethical questions 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:09.320 and the ideological questions on by owning energy stocks and 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:12.040 get way wealth here. Okay, that's the difference in orders. 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:14.920 There's an ideology going on out there about how bad 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:18.000 that industry is. And by the way, it's effectively portfolio 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:20.920 managers being shamed so that they don't touch it. Okay. 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:22.640 I mean when we can look across the value por 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:25.560 folios and find no energy holdings, Um, you know that 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:27.800 the shaming has been tough because even the value people 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:30.200 have given up on this, So we don't have to 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.160 make that judgment call. We don't have to wonder how 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:34.120 big they'll be, we don't have to wonder how profitable 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:36.480 they could be. We can buy all those economics right 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:39.800 now in the energy business and use it. People ask 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:41.360 us often, you know, what does day to day trading 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:42.920 look like to you? I mean, Friday was a big 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.200 up day in the oil and the stocks rolled down. 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:47.560 Today's a down day and oil and the stocks are down. 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:49.760 So what goes on day to day in these stocks, 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:51.760 whether you know, tied to the oil price, it really 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:55.400 hasn't correlated much. Any day over ninety is a drain. 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:58.359 We're just getting fat and happy and everyone else is frustrating. 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:01.959 So well on that, What is your kind of your 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.439 central energy call here? Is it tied to the price 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:09.400 of oil per se or is it something else? Macro? Well, 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:13.959 I mean the lack of supply. It's massive. And when 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.880 I say massive, you know, let's just say in the interim, 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:19.800 you know, parts of say Western Europe have slowed down 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:23.920 because their energy crisis. That's that's probably likely, right, which 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:26.680 means there's just subtle demand that's taken off, but again, 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:31.560 supply can't grow. UM supply is continued to disappear when 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:34.160 the Saudis are out there making the case that we 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:37.840 cannot sustain at these levels. You know, there's real problems 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:39.920 that The big myth to so we're all aware, is 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:42.560 that out of nowhere OPEC can snap their finger, ten 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.559 million barrels can just show up. And that's false, right 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.520 that that's western myth is what it is. And the 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.280 reality is if we're going to be we're gonna be 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.240 producing a lot more oil the United States and can it. 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:54.839 I've got to be a primary driver that. Just so 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.679 we're all aware, all right, good stuff, Cold, really love 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:01.040 getting your perspective there, coll Smeat President folio manager Smeat 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:04.120 Capitol UH Management with a you know, a bullish call, 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.839 which it's really been surprising how well, well, I guess 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:08.760 it's not surprising, but it's just interesting to see how 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.839 well UH Energy has done over the last several years. 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:14.800 It was so out of favor for so long, Peak 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:17.080 oil and all that, but boys and how and how 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:20.720 well they've done Bill and it's I mean, they they 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:24.760 have UM produced incredible performance at a time when other 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:28.319 funds just long stocks. Are getting crushed. Absolutely good stuff. 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:36.000 G l c O the Global Commodity Price Dashboard on 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:39.080 the Bloomberg Terminal, that's where you find all the commodity stuff, 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:43.560 energy metals, aggs, all that kind of good stuff. And 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.320 that's typically where you're find you know, people like Mike mcglowan, 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.960 Senior Commodity Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence. But nope, he's not 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.679 on the farm checking out the corn, you know, or 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.280 the cotton and soybeans or any of that kind of stuff. 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:59.760 He's in Vegas and he's at something called the web 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:04.040 Crypto Conference. Mike, what are you doing in Vegas? And 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:07.560 what is the Web three Crypto Conference? Hey boy, I 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.360 was invited to attend by a group called the Wolf 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.160 of All Streets and I've been presenting on the macro 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:17.280 and um talking to you, um and but yeah, I 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:19.480 was out in the cornbell a couple about of months ago, 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:22.079 bus the family and it was shocking how good the 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:23.880 corn crop was this year and the parts I went 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.680 to Illinois. UM. But in terms of the rest of 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.959 the space that you know, I look at, commodities is 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:33.960 kind of like a futruty nail as the global macroeconomic 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.000 tide recedes and that's what you're seen in in crude 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:38.920 oil and things like that. It had its bounced, but 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.959 I think it's just resuming and during bear market as 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:46.480 we see stocks headlower. Two So what is where are 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.720 the opportunities in the global commodity space? And and and folks, 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.000 Mike mcgloan has been covered doing this for four decades. 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:55.240 He covers everything in the commodities, which is now included 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:59.320 over the last decade U cryptocurrencies as as well, and 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:01.760 he understands that as well, are better than anybody on 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.439 Wall Street. So, Mike, when you talk to your institutional 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.440 investor clients out there in the commodity space, where are 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.520 they putting their money? Where they spending their time? Yeah, 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.560 that's the key thing. Everybody's looking for a place to hide. 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.560 And I the sense I get here and keep I 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.719 keep saying. And when I'm getting since I'm getting for 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.319 a lot of the money managers I speak to is 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.720 their selling equities on rallies and they're buying two you 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.640 notes on dips and are buying on dips. And I 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:26.360 think that's going to continue. At some point They're gonna 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.560 make some good money. Even so from Jamie Timing yesterday. 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.560 Now cryptos and that space, I'm sensing a decent amount 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.559 of institutions are coming into the bigcoin space and looking 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.760 to buying the bitcoin space. And that's really showed because 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.439 it's been the same price since June. But again, it's 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.360 it's also been the fastest horse in the race, and 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.199 it's going down. But that's my sense, and the key 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:45.760 question is where it stops. The key thing I like 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:47.559 to point out is there's been a lot of people 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:49.800 calling for very bullish calls and crude all this year, 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.640 and I think they're missing the macroeconomics and being tied. 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:54.480 And now I'm afraid that this is just going to 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.840 excel rate, and particularly because we have the sledge hammer 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:58.960 from the FED out there, and sledge hammer is just 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.200 pounding harder and harder every day. When when do we 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.160 see bitcoin move out of this range? I mean, it 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:10.360 hasn't really since June. Um. Okay, it's been up a 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:14.480 little to like twenty four thousand in August, and it's 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:19.160 been down a bit too, you know, eighteen, occasionally dipping 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.680 under that, but really it's been hovering around nineteen or 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:27.880 twenty thousand for months now. Why yeah, exactly, well and 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:30.720 more Sollars just like in obvious what my sensence, what's 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:34.200 happening with bitcoin. It's in that transition to becoming global 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.280 digital collateral and trading more like gold and long bonds, 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:39.640 and they're both down to so far this year. But 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.320 it's showing that stabilization. The key thing I've been really 0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:44.480 watching as you saw what happened in theerium. It bought 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:46.360 him at a thousand, it had the merge and went 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.680 to two thousand. Now it's back towards and I think 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.240 that those are two things where we see what's looked 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:55.640 five ten years for that's the rapidly advancing technology. It's 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:57.800 much likely to more likely to appreciate, and I think 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.160 people get that. And then you see the old like 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:05.040 you like proof of steak, Well, I like it, Matt, 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.240 But it has the income. Now you can get involved. 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:11.720 Institutions are getting involved, and they can measure discounted cash 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.280 flows and that's what's a really unique space for its 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.040 hearing though that didn't exist before. So it's getting the attention. 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.440 But right now we are in a macroeconomic beer market. 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.440 Cryptos are part of it. And this is the fact 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:23.360 that bitcoin has been able to stabilize as we see 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.160 a new low in the NASA today is showing that 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.240 it's moving forward, looking to a better future. It's just 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.600 right now, it's October. We all know the Feds tightening 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.320 and markets haven't gone down enough yet. Unfortunately, by the way, 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.560 in crypto circles, Paul, this month is typically referred to 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:42.640 as October October yeah, because average average returns to two 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:44.920 thousand twenty one for bitcoin has been I'm sorry, two 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:50.480 thousand fourteen has been about usually it's a game. Usually 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:52.720 it's a game, all right. My important question where you're 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:57.920 staying in Vegas at the win this is a resource. Yeah, 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.000 it's it's rough, Diggs here, Yeah, you've got to play 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:01.760 to go. Is the wind the place to get the place? 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.480 Now I'm a Blagio guy, but the wind is the 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.280 setting the bar like like he always does. I mean 0:16:07.320 --> 0:16:09.880 you guys, I mean Mr Wynn is just the just 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:12.440 the visionary in which is crazy term use since he's 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.240 partially blind. But I thought that was secret or you're 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:17.400 not supposed to admit or tell him that he's blinds 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.120 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, it's no big Oh. I thought 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.120 it was a thing that he didn't like I've I've 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:26.080 always I've always talked him about it. But anyway, Uh so, Mike, 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.840 you're at this crypto conference in in the midst of 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:33.560 a bare global bear market. What is the conversation from 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:37.760 crypto folks in Vegas this week? They're One key person 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.880 I spoke to yesterday was a minor and adventure capital 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.600 investor and he've got much more capitalist to the point, 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.240 and his quote was, I really prefer bearer markets because 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.640 you get rid of the silly speculation. And he's just 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.040 looking at to play more capital. Um so there's a 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.240 lot of positive there from people like him. Partney says, Hey, 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.960 I've got good investor returns and I've got a lot 0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.080 of good discounts here. But that's the main sense. It 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:02.560 was the first day in a semi Holley associate. What 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.840 really kicks it today? But it's an investor conference. It's 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:07.320 certainly be enthusiasm from a few months ago was gone, 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.040 which most people here for the institutions think, thank you. 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.920 It's good to get rid of that. Oh I haven't 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:17.880 been there in years. You gotta go. I mean, so, Mike, 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:19.679 how is Vegas? Is it? Is it hopping? Is it 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:21.359 kind of like the old days. What's going on? Give 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.880 us a read? It's my first time here, is really what? 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.320 It's your first time ever in Las Vegas. I have 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:30.159 to admit that, yes, my wife and I walked on 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.840 the strip yesterday and we found a nice place to eat. 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:34.280 But I'm not much of a gamble. I can lose 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.199 a lot enough, a lot of much money in markets, 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:38.879 even with an edge. So but it's it seems to 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:40.760 be hopping. It's happening. But the key thing is there's 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.000 so much construction and building and so much going on here. 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.560 It's just quite an amazing place. So it's cool, cool 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:47.840 to be here for the first time from and the 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:50.919 key thing there for you know, people who invest in, 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:54.439 you know, these gaming companies, is the conference business. That 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:57.440 is the kind of Yeah, I thought that that's what 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:01.080 we're talking about, and I've I haven't been there in years, 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.199 but it's great to go for that purpose. You know, 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.560 I don't gamble much either because I just end up 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.119 losing money, but I do like to go to conferences 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:11.960 or um, you know, I've been down there to a 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:16.080 few track schools. Lamborghini has tracks schools down there, super fun, 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.199 good stuff all right, Mike, Well, we'll let you get 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:19.719 back to it. Let you get back to the tables. 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:23.680 Mike McLoone senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligent out of 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:26.640 Vegas at Crypto conference. But again, you think about they 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:28.760 have so much conference space out there. I mean, the 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.920 Consumer Electronics Show in January, it's just a monster. You know, 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.760 a couple hundred thousand people descend on the city. Win 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:36.520 looks like the biggest. I mean I'm looking at the 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:40.040 RV function, which shows you relative value of one company 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:43.200 to others. So I put up Win Resorts um it's 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:46.480 the biggest by market cap six and six point six 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.479 billion of any of the American ones. Of course, they 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:52.080 have Win Macau, which is another three point three billion. 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:54.920 And now that I hear, it's the place to say 0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:56.879 they're setting the bar. I want to go down there 0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:59.120 and get a get a suite, go out there. Yes, 0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:01.479 go out there, out to Vegas. But when you talk 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.880 about the gaming companies, it's all about Asia Macau. I mean, 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.760 that's McCaw's such. It dwarfs the strip on Vegas. So 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:11.360 you think about what moves the needle for these gaming companies, 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.679 it's for the majority of them, Las Vegas Sands wins 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:17.520 those big ones. It's been Macau because that is a 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:20.600 huge gaming market for these companies and they put monstrous 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:22.640 investments in there. So it's kind of fun to get 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:29.280 some feedback from Mike mcgloan in Vegas. We have to 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:31.639 get to Allison Williams. We've got Allison coming up and 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.000 we'll talk to We always talked. We talked to pretty 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:35.320 a lot on linked to talk to her, but we'll 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:37.679 get more coming up. But I need to talk to 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.800 Alice Williams because starting Friday, we'll get the big banks 0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:43.320 reporting numbers. And that's big for a lot of reasons. 0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:45.800 A for the for the banks themselves and for their sheralders, 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:48.000 but also for their their read on the overall economy. 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:50.919 Alison Williams joints the senior Global Banks and Asset Manager 0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:54.720 analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Alison, I wanted to start 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:58.119