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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, we got

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Speaker 1: some p p I data tomorrow. That's the producer prices

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Speaker 1: in next, and then cp I Thursday. Wow, this is

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Speaker 1: disturbing image. Matt Miller just walked in with a huge

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Speaker 1: thing of peanut butter. Yes, well, I'll tell you what.

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Speaker 1: We have these machines upstairs and they grind the peanuts.

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Speaker 1: They make it fresh for you, so it doesn't take

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Speaker 1: anything like peanut butter, the worst thing in the word.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you. It is so good and it's much

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Speaker 1: better for you than Jiff, which is my previous fat

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Speaker 1: Matt loved eating Jeff peanut butter or skippy, but skinny

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Speaker 1: Matt likes fresh ground peanuts. It's so much healthier. Alright, folks.

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Speaker 1: For those of that don't know, Matt's been on a

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Speaker 1: diet for the last couple of months and has lost

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Speaker 1: a meaningful amount thirty three pound the end of July.

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Speaker 1: So there you go. Good for him. Ira save us

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Speaker 1: here Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 1: I've got inflation data over the next couple of days.

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Speaker 1: People like you tell me I need to pay attention.

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Speaker 1: What's the FED looking for when I get some of

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Speaker 1: these data points over the next couple of days. Well,

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Speaker 1: they're really hoping for them to be lower. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: of course, Bloomberg Economics actually has a relatively high print

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Speaker 1: for or or things that it will be relatively high

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Speaker 1: print month on month. But if if the expectation is

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Speaker 1: met here on CPI, particularly core CPI being up only

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Speaker 1: zero point four uh instead of the zero point six

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Speaker 1: it was up last month, I think the FED will

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Speaker 1: kind of applaud that a little bit. And you know,

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Speaker 1: don't look at the headline number being up or down

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Speaker 1: a little bit, because there's you know, it's probably gonna

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Speaker 1: be up a little because gas prices are up a

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Speaker 1: little bit. But it's really the core inflation number that

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Speaker 1: is going to be the focus. I think that the

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Speaker 1: next month or two for for the FED and certainly

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Speaker 1: for market participants. What about retail sales. I've heard a

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Speaker 1: couple of people say that, you know, retail sales is

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Speaker 1: going to be a big number to pay attention to

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Speaker 1: this week. Yeah, so retail sales is always is always

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Speaker 1: a big number. In fact, I would say in this world,

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Speaker 1: it's really um the top three, you know, it kind

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Speaker 1: of has been eclipsed a little bit by CPI recently

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Speaker 1: in terms of market reaction and market function. But retail sales,

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Speaker 1: if it continues to slip, you know, X automobiles for example,

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Speaker 1: like it did last month, UM, then that certainly is

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Speaker 1: a sign that these higher prices are leading to demand destruction.

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Speaker 1: And I think that that's the real um, you know,

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Speaker 1: real concern for UM for the economy in general and

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Speaker 1: things like corporate earnings. Will those keep up because if

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Speaker 1: obviously its top line revenues start to fall significantly, it's

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Speaker 1: not going to be good for risk assets. UM. You know.

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Speaker 1: But but then again, like one of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: falling headline CPI is important and certainly headline UM core

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Speaker 1: inflation is that that real wage is might wind up

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Speaker 1: being higher. Right, the wage numbers that we got last

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Speaker 1: week weren't that bad, you know, so so bad in

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Speaker 1: what sense bad for the FED or bad for the economy. Well,

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Speaker 1: I when I say weren't that bad, I mean that

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Speaker 1: they were high enough that it looks like real growth

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Speaker 1: is still going to be positive. And that's where, um,

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Speaker 1: I think the the issue is right, nominal nominal growth

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Speaker 1: rates have just skyrocketed in part because of prices, but

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Speaker 1: but demand has kept up right, So so that's why

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Speaker 1: those retail sales numbers that we're going to get on

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Speaker 1: Friday are going to be, you know, pretty important facts.

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Speaker 1: So I just saw pretty good walking by the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Interactive Broker studio and I brought her in here, um

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Speaker 1: put her in front of a mike because Cretty, you're

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Speaker 1: the one from whom I heard this. I think you

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Speaker 1: were talking yesterday with Carol masser Um on Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 1: Week and saying that maybe the retail sales number is

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Speaker 1: as important or more important than, um the CPI number. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the logic there was that, uh, if the CPI number

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Speaker 1: and the PPN number, basically it's becoming a question of

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Speaker 1: the margin of of deceleration when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: inflation figures. But the retail number is different because it's

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Speaker 1: speaking more to the demand side rather than the supply side,

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Speaker 1: whereas the CP and PPI is more supply side driven.

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Speaker 1: The retail numbers that we're going to say, are people

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Speaker 1: still spending and it's coming out of time when a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are kind of expecting inventory levels that

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Speaker 1: are extremely high and therefore these massive sales and discounted

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Speaker 1: prices for the retail sector. So the question here is

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Speaker 1: if net net the GDP is going to kind of

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Speaker 1: um or I should say that the net sales are

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Speaker 1: going to drop in the fourth quarter going into holiday season.

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Speaker 1: What you want to make up for the lower prices

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Speaker 1: or the lower sales is higher demand UM And that's

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Speaker 1: why the retail sales number could couldn't make or break

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Speaker 1: that theory that people are still spending into the holiday

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Speaker 1: season rather than cutting back because of UM inflation or

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Speaker 1: higher prices or disposal when you do your Christmas shopping.

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Speaker 1: And Matt I don't completely disagree with that. So so

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Speaker 1: the number within the retail sales number on Friday you

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Speaker 1: really want to be focused on is that retail sales

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Speaker 1: control group because it that is all the what inputs

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Speaker 1: into GDP that looks at at overall prices. Remember this

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Speaker 1: is a September number, so obviously going into like like

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Speaker 1: you know, it's it's accurate to say, hey, are we

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Speaker 1: going to have a decent holiday sales numbers? Um, and

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Speaker 1: September is a little bit early for that. But but

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Speaker 1: still if we have a zero point three as the

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Speaker 1: consensus is expecting for that control group, that will be

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Speaker 1: a pretty decent number. And actually that would mean that

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Speaker 1: real control group sales was basically flat. And and you know,

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Speaker 1: if demand continues to keep up with these price increases

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Speaker 1: and things are good. And by the way, Matt, I

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Speaker 1: just looked while we were talking, um, good things to

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Speaker 1: go to that that fresh peanut butter, because peanut butter

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Speaker 1: in the CPI report is up you know so far

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Speaker 1: this year. So you are free in the Bloomberg pantry.

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Speaker 1: But is a poultry and like eggs like up or something.

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Speaker 1: Some some sectors in the food are are are quite

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Speaker 1: significantly um. But keep in mind like like things like

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Speaker 1: like the the actual commodities that are in CPI, UM,

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Speaker 1: you know that that's for the consumer, so so a

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Speaker 1: lot of that is still shipping costs. So things like

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Speaker 1: gasoline prices being much higher means that it's, you know,

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Speaker 1: just cost more to get the good stores. All right,

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Speaker 1: Skippy superchunk is the way to go. And I would

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Speaker 1: die on that hill. Iro Jersey, chief US interest rate

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Speaker 1: strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, Thank you so much. We didn't

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Speaker 1: even get to talk soccer. That's a wasted opportunity. Tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: all right, we'll do it tomorrow. Let's bring our next

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Speaker 1: guest professional big time. Cole Speed, President portfolio manager of

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Speaker 1: Smeet Capital Managements. Some really really good performance there. Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at this market. It's just been a blood

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Speaker 1: bath all year. I mean, I've got cash in my pocket.

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Speaker 1: Should I just leave it there? What should I be doing? Well?

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Speaker 1: To your point, what we're witnessing this year is what

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Speaker 1: we call stock market failure, okay, and this is the

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Speaker 1: seeds of this were sowned by the spectator of euphoria

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Speaker 1: that we saw um in twenty one, whether it be

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Speaker 1: Spacts or the Robin Hood Yolo traders, as Spencer Jacob

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Speaker 1: from the Wall Street Journalist book lays out um. And

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Speaker 1: so we're just we're bearing what we have to do

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Speaker 1: with based on this, and by the way, we might

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Speaker 1: not be done with this bear market until Matt has

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Speaker 1: his next neat whiskey just okay. So so I just

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Speaker 1: say that because to your point, I think the topest

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Speaker 1: thing for investors right now is some investors want to

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Speaker 1: go right back to what was just popular okay. In

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Speaker 1: other words, there is a large population of the professional

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Speaker 1: stock pickers out there that are hiding out in big

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Speaker 1: cap tech because they think they'll pass through price pricing

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Speaker 1: better than anyone else. The question is will the valuation

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Speaker 1: protect them even if they can pass on pricing On

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Speaker 1: the flip side, where you'd have to go, in our

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Speaker 1: opinion to make you know, wonderful money looking forward is

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Speaker 1: you need to go into economically sensitive places that have

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Speaker 1: been bombed out based on the circumstances, based on the

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Speaker 1: fear of macroeconomics, based on the FED I think to break, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: And that's where it looks like the best prospects are

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Speaker 1: for making money in stocks. You know, I uh, there

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Speaker 1: were a lot of hot stocks meme stocks during the

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Speaker 1: pandemic that I've gotten crushed and most of them didn't

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Speaker 1: make any money. But I, in in my health pivot,

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Speaker 1: have founded another way of taking the edge off. When

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Speaker 1: I get home, it doesn't involve alcohol, and I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: if you have taken a look at weed stocks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: talk about cheap valuations. Some of these stocks are trading

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Speaker 1: at two times earnings and they're trading at three times sorry,

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Speaker 1: two times sales and three times earnings. I mean they're

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Speaker 1: they're trading for very low valuations and they make money,

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Speaker 1: and the outlook has to be right, right. Uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: I just don't know how society is better off if

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Speaker 1: we're all high to be. But you should be worried

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Speaker 1: about making money. You're not making value judgments, you're not

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Speaker 1: making ethical calls, right You you want to make money,

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Speaker 1: you want to maximize profitability, and you want to buy

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Speaker 1: stuff that's cheap. I can take all the ethical questions

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Speaker 1: and the ideological questions on by owning energy stocks and

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Speaker 1: get way wealth here. Okay, that's the difference in orders.

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Speaker 1: There's an ideology going on out there about how bad

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Speaker 1: that industry is. And by the way, it's effectively portfolio

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Speaker 1: managers being shamed so that they don't touch it. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I mean when we can look across the value por

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Speaker 1: folios and find no energy holdings, Um, you know that

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Speaker 1: the shaming has been tough because even the value people

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Speaker 1: have given up on this, So we don't have to

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Speaker 1: make that judgment call. We don't have to wonder how

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Speaker 1: big they'll be, we don't have to wonder how profitable

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Speaker 1: they could be. We can buy all those economics right

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Speaker 1: now in the energy business and use it. People ask

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Speaker 1: us often, you know, what does day to day trading

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Speaker 1: look like to you? I mean, Friday was a big

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Speaker 1: up day in the oil and the stocks rolled down.

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Speaker 1: Today's a down day and oil and the stocks are down.

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Speaker 1: So what goes on day to day in these stocks,

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Speaker 1: whether you know, tied to the oil price, it really

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Speaker 1: hasn't correlated much. Any day over ninety is a drain.

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Speaker 1: We're just getting fat and happy and everyone else is frustrating.

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Speaker 1: So well on that, What is your kind of your

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Speaker 1: central energy call here? Is it tied to the price

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Speaker 1: of oil per se or is it something else? Macro? Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean the lack of supply. It's massive. And when

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Speaker 1: I say massive, you know, let's just say in the interim,

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Speaker 1: you know, parts of say Western Europe have slowed down

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Speaker 1: because their energy crisis. That's that's probably likely, right, which

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Speaker 1: means there's just subtle demand that's taken off, but again,

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Speaker 1: supply can't grow. UM supply is continued to disappear when

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Speaker 1: the Saudis are out there making the case that we

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Speaker 1: cannot sustain at these levels. You know, there's real problems

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Speaker 1: that The big myth to so we're all aware, is

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Speaker 1: that out of nowhere OPEC can snap their finger, ten

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Speaker 1: million barrels can just show up. And that's false, right

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Speaker 1: that that's western myth is what it is. And the

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Speaker 1: reality is if we're going to be we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: producing a lot more oil the United States and can it.

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Speaker 1: I've got to be a primary driver that. Just so

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Speaker 1: we're all aware, all right, good stuff, Cold, really love

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Speaker 1: getting your perspective there, coll Smeat President folio manager Smeat

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Speaker 1: Capitol UH Management with a you know, a bullish call,

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Speaker 1: which it's really been surprising how well, well, I guess

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Speaker 1: it's not surprising, but it's just interesting to see how

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Speaker 1: well UH Energy has done over the last several years.

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Speaker 1: It was so out of favor for so long, Peak

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Speaker 1: oil and all that, but boys and how and how

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Speaker 1: well they've done Bill and it's I mean, they they

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Speaker 1: have UM produced incredible performance at a time when other

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Speaker 1: funds just long stocks. Are getting crushed. Absolutely good stuff.

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Speaker 1: G l c O the Global Commodity Price Dashboard on

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, that's where you find all the commodity stuff,

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Speaker 1: energy metals, aggs, all that kind of good stuff. And

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Speaker 1: that's typically where you're find you know, people like Mike mcglowan,

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Speaker 1: Senior Commodity Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence. But nope, he's not

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Speaker 1: on the farm checking out the corn, you know, or

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Speaker 1: the cotton and soybeans or any of that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 1: He's in Vegas and he's at something called the web

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Speaker 1: Crypto Conference. Mike, what are you doing in Vegas? And

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Speaker 1: what is the Web three Crypto Conference? Hey boy, I

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Speaker 1: was invited to attend by a group called the Wolf

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Speaker 1: of All Streets and I've been presenting on the macro

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Speaker 1: and um talking to you, um and but yeah, I

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Speaker 1: was out in the cornbell a couple about of months ago,

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Speaker 1: bus the family and it was shocking how good the

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Speaker 1: corn crop was this year and the parts I went

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Speaker 1: to Illinois. UM. But in terms of the rest of

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Speaker 1: the space that you know, I look at, commodities is

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Speaker 1: kind of like a futruty nail as the global macroeconomic

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Speaker 1: tide recedes and that's what you're seen in in crude

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Speaker 1: oil and things like that. It had its bounced, but

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Speaker 1: I think it's just resuming and during bear market as

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Speaker 1: we see stocks headlower. Two So what is where are

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Speaker 1: the opportunities in the global commodity space? And and and folks,

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Speaker 1: Mike mcgloan has been covered doing this for four decades.

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Speaker 1: He covers everything in the commodities, which is now included

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Speaker 1: over the last decade U cryptocurrencies as as well, and

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Speaker 1: he understands that as well, are better than anybody on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street. So, Mike, when you talk to your institutional

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Speaker 1: investor clients out there in the commodity space, where are

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Speaker 1: they putting their money? Where they spending their time? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's the key thing. Everybody's looking for a place to hide.

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Speaker 1: And I the sense I get here and keep I

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Speaker 1: keep saying. And when I'm getting since I'm getting for

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Speaker 1: a lot of the money managers I speak to is

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Speaker 1: their selling equities on rallies and they're buying two you

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Speaker 1: notes on dips and are buying on dips. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's going to continue. At some point They're gonna

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Speaker 1: make some good money. Even so from Jamie Timing yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Now cryptos and that space, I'm sensing a decent amount

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Speaker 1: of institutions are coming into the bigcoin space and looking

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Speaker 1: to buying the bitcoin space. And that's really showed because

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Speaker 1: it's been the same price since June. But again, it's

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Speaker 1: it's also been the fastest horse in the race, and

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Speaker 1: it's going down. But that's my sense, and the key

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Speaker 1: question is where it stops. The key thing I like

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Speaker 1: to point out is there's been a lot of people

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Speaker 1: calling for very bullish calls and crude all this year,

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Speaker 1: and I think they're missing the macroeconomics and being tied.

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Speaker 1: And now I'm afraid that this is just going to

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Speaker 1: excel rate, and particularly because we have the sledge hammer

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Speaker 1: from the FED out there, and sledge hammer is just

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Speaker 1: pounding harder and harder every day. When when do we

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Speaker 1: see bitcoin move out of this range? I mean, it

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Speaker 1: hasn't really since June. Um. Okay, it's been up a

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Speaker 1: little to like twenty four thousand in August, and it's

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Speaker 1: been down a bit too, you know, eighteen, occasionally dipping

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Speaker 1: under that, but really it's been hovering around nineteen or

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Speaker 1: twenty thousand for months now. Why yeah, exactly, well and

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Speaker 1: more Sollars just like in obvious what my sensence, what's

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Speaker 1: happening with bitcoin. It's in that transition to becoming global

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Speaker 1: digital collateral and trading more like gold and long bonds,

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Speaker 1: and they're both down to so far this year. But

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Speaker 1: it's showing that stabilization. The key thing I've been really

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Speaker 1: watching as you saw what happened in theerium. It bought

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Speaker 1: him at a thousand, it had the merge and went

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Speaker 1: to two thousand. Now it's back towards and I think

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Speaker 1: that those are two things where we see what's looked

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Speaker 1: five ten years for that's the rapidly advancing technology. It's

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Speaker 1: much likely to more likely to appreciate, and I think

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Speaker 1: people get that. And then you see the old like

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Speaker 1: you like proof of steak, Well, I like it, Matt,

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Speaker 1: But it has the income. Now you can get involved.

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Speaker 1: Institutions are getting involved, and they can measure discounted cash

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Speaker 1: flows and that's what's a really unique space for its

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Speaker 1: hearing though that didn't exist before. So it's getting the attention.

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Speaker 1: But right now we are in a macroeconomic beer market.

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Speaker 1: Cryptos are part of it. And this is the fact

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Speaker 1: that bitcoin has been able to stabilize as we see

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Speaker 1: a new low in the NASA today is showing that

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Speaker 1: it's moving forward, looking to a better future. It's just

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Speaker 1: right now, it's October. We all know the Feds tightening

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Speaker 1: and markets haven't gone down enough yet. Unfortunately, by the way,

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Speaker 1: in crypto circles, Paul, this month is typically referred to

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Speaker 1: as October October yeah, because average average returns to two

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Speaker 1: thousand twenty one for bitcoin has been I'm sorry, two

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Speaker 1: thousand fourteen has been about usually it's a game. Usually

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Speaker 1: it's a game, all right. My important question where you're

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Speaker 1: staying in Vegas at the win this is a resource. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's it's rough, Diggs here, Yeah, you've got to play

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Speaker 1: to go. Is the wind the place to get the place?

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Speaker 1: Now I'm a Blagio guy, but the wind is the

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Speaker 1: setting the bar like like he always does. I mean

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Speaker 1: you guys, I mean Mr Wynn is just the just

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Speaker 1: the visionary in which is crazy term use since he's

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Speaker 1: partially blind. But I thought that was secret or you're

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Speaker 1: not supposed to admit or tell him that he's blinds

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, it's no big Oh. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was a thing that he didn't like I've I've

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Speaker 1: always I've always talked him about it. But anyway, Uh so, Mike,

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Speaker 1: you're at this crypto conference in in the midst of

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Speaker 1: a bare global bear market. What is the conversation from

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Speaker 1: crypto folks in Vegas this week? They're One key person

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Speaker 1: I spoke to yesterday was a minor and adventure capital

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Speaker 1: investor and he've got much more capitalist to the point,

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Speaker 1: and his quote was, I really prefer bearer markets because

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Speaker 1: you get rid of the silly speculation. And he's just

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Speaker 1: looking at to play more capital. Um so there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of positive there from people like him. Partney says, Hey,

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Speaker 1: I've got good investor returns and I've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of good discounts here. But that's the main sense. It

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Speaker 1: was the first day in a semi Holley associate. What

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Speaker 1: really kicks it today? But it's an investor conference. It's

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Speaker 1: certainly be enthusiasm from a few months ago was gone,

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Speaker 1: which most people here for the institutions think, thank you.

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Speaker 1: It's good to get rid of that. Oh I haven't

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Speaker 1: been there in years. You gotta go. I mean, so, Mike,

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Speaker 1: how is Vegas? Is it? Is it hopping? Is it

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Speaker 1: kind of like the old days. What's going on? Give

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Speaker 1: us a read? It's my first time here, is really what?

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Speaker 1: It's your first time ever in Las Vegas. I have

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Speaker 1: to admit that, yes, my wife and I walked on

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Speaker 1: the strip yesterday and we found a nice place to eat.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not much of a gamble. I can lose

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Speaker 1: a lot enough, a lot of much money in markets,

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Speaker 1: even with an edge. So but it's it seems to

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Speaker 1: be hopping. It's happening. But the key thing is there's

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Speaker 1: so much construction and building and so much going on here.

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Speaker 1: It's just quite an amazing place. So it's cool, cool

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Speaker 1: to be here for the first time from and the

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Speaker 1: key thing there for you know, people who invest in,

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Speaker 1: you know, these gaming companies, is the conference business. That

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Speaker 1: is the kind of Yeah, I thought that that's what

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Speaker 1: we're talking about, and I've I haven't been there in years,

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Speaker 1: but it's great to go for that purpose. You know,

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Speaker 1: I don't gamble much either because I just end up

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Speaker 1: losing money, but I do like to go to conferences

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Speaker 1: or um, you know, I've been down there to a

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Speaker 1: few track schools. Lamborghini has tracks schools down there, super fun,

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Speaker 1: good stuff all right, Mike, Well, we'll let you get

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Speaker 1: back to it. Let you get back to the tables.

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Speaker 1: Mike McLoone senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligent out of

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Speaker 1: Vegas at Crypto conference. But again, you think about they

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Speaker 1: have so much conference space out there. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: Consumer Electronics Show in January, it's just a monster. You know,

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Speaker 1: a couple hundred thousand people descend on the city. Win

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Speaker 1: looks like the biggest. I mean I'm looking at the

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Speaker 1: RV function, which shows you relative value of one company

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Speaker 1: to others. So I put up Win Resorts um it's

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Speaker 1: the biggest by market cap six and six point six

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Speaker 1: billion of any of the American ones. Of course, they

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Speaker 1: have Win Macau, which is another three point three billion.

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Speaker 1: And now that I hear, it's the place to say

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Speaker 1: they're setting the bar. I want to go down there

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Speaker 1: and get a get a suite, go out there. Yes,

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Speaker 1: go out there, out to Vegas. But when you talk

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Speaker 1: about the gaming companies, it's all about Asia Macau. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's McCaw's such. It dwarfs the strip on Vegas. So

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Speaker 1: you think about what moves the needle for these gaming companies,

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Speaker 1: it's for the majority of them, Las Vegas Sands wins

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Speaker 1: those big ones. It's been Macau because that is a

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Speaker 1: huge gaming market for these companies and they put monstrous

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Speaker 1: investments in there. So it's kind of fun to get

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Speaker 1: some feedback from Mike mcgloan in Vegas. We have to

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Speaker 1: get to Allison Williams. We've got Allison coming up and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk to We always talked. We talked to pretty

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Speaker 1: a lot on linked to talk to her, but we'll

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Speaker 1: get more coming up. But I need to talk to

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Speaker 1: Alice Williams because starting Friday, we'll get the big banks

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Speaker 1: reporting numbers. And that's big for a lot of reasons.

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Speaker 1: A for the for the banks themselves and for their sheralders,

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Speaker 1: but also for their their read on the overall economy.

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Speaker 1: Alison Williams joints the senior Global Banks and Asset Manager

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Speaker 1: analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Alison, I wanted to start

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Speaker 1: first with Credit Swiss that I guess the latest twist

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Speaker 1: in this story is if they want to survive, if

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Speaker 1: they want to implement their restructuring, they may need more capital.

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Speaker 1: Is that kind of the read? That is the read?

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Speaker 1: And that's actually you know that is been the concern

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Speaker 1: with the stock. I think every other day we get

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Speaker 1: a we get another number that's being thrown out there. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think there was numbers to the multi billions.

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Speaker 1: But but but the bottom line is that the amount

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Speaker 1: of capital they need depends on you know, a what business,

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Speaker 1: what businesses in their portfolio are they going to keep

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Speaker 1: um and seek to fund um If they're selling businesses,

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Speaker 1: obviously that they can get capital without raising stock. They

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Speaker 1: can get it from from other investors um. But then

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Speaker 1: you know, what are the steps ahead and you know

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Speaker 1: what money do they need to pay for those taps

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Speaker 1: steps in terms of restructuring. And so that's why when

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Speaker 1: you see sort of various numbers out there, any of

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Speaker 1: these numbers could be correct. It really just depends on

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Speaker 1: what we're going to hear from them on the So, Alison,

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Speaker 1: is are the so over? Like when I was a

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Speaker 1: Credit Swiss we felt we could pitch any deal anywhere

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Speaker 1: around the world and be really competitive. Are those days

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Speaker 1: kind of over for this new Credit Swiss? So? I think,

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Speaker 1: And that's not really where the challenge lies. I think

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Speaker 1: in general, um, you know, across the firm they have

427
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:24,479
Speaker 1: to be feeling Um, you know some pressure as you know,

428
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 1: clients as well as investors are looking at them with

429
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 1: some uncertainty, but they really do you know, they have

430
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 1: a good m and a franchise. UM, equity underwriting and

431
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 1: leverage lending. These are all areas that the bank is

432
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 1: wrong on. But as we know that there's not that

433
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: none of those deals are being done right now, aren't

434
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 1: being done. Leverage lending is a book where we're is

435
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: a business where we're seeing write downs. Um, just given

436
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: the markets this year, so there's structural issues with credit

437
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 1: Swiss and then the cyclical pressures I think are just

438
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: you know, really um bringing those issues to bear. So

439
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: we're going to hear from the big banks JP Morgan

440
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 1: on the fourteenth. What day is today? Today is the

441
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 1: eleventh Friday? Okay, so we're gonna hear from JP Morgan

442
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 1: on Friday, Wells Fargo as well, City Group as well,

443
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: and then the following week Bank America, UM State some

444
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 1: other states treat as some mother's truest you always think

445
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 1: is not a great name. Um, what do we expect

446
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 1: to hear? Yeah? And so yeah, so Friday, as you said,

447
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 1: we'll get JP Morgan, City Wells and Morgan Stanley. UM,

448
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: you know, the big thing that we're watching is what

449
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: happens with UM credit provisions. We think that credit is

450
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: good right now, but the question is how are banks

451
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 1: looking out into the future and factoring that into UM

452
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: their lost provision. So it's more a view towards what

453
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: the risks are head We saw UM headlines yesterday UM

454
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 1: from JP Morgan's comments talking about our recession next year.

455
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 1: When the banks set these reserves, they look over the

456
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: loan life so if they see increasing odds of a recession,

457
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 1: if they see a recession looking tougher, we'll see it

458
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: in those reserves, and so we're watching that number more

459
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: for three risk UM. From a revenue perspective, the negative

460
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,959
Speaker 1: is investment banking fees, as we talked about wealth inesset

461
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 1: management fees, mortgage fees, lots of fees going down. Fixed

462
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: income trading will be the highlight in the investment bank.

463
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 1: But the revenue story is really not interest income that's

464
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: going to come in very strong for the banks UM.

465
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 1: There's potential upside relating to rates UM, but the question

466
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: for the outlook what is how our loans growing. Again,

467
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: that comes back to the economic risks and then what's

468
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 1: happening with their cost of deposits? And on the cost side, Allison,

469
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: when we talk costs, we usually talk people, Uh, you

470
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: know better than anybody. Are we going to get some

471
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: big announcements from some of these banks. Is this an

472
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: opportunity for them to really pair back their head count?

473
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: I think that I think what we're going to see

474
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: in the quarter is more on the compensation side of things. So, UM,

475
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 1: when we look across banks, are our expectation is that

476
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 1: they'll bring down comp um at a similar amount to

477
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: the related revenue. So keep in mind that many of

478
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: these banks are diversified UM. Morgan Stanley and Golbin Sachs

479
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: are are sort of more focused on the capital market.

480
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 1: So we'll see it. UM. They're the most revenue down

481
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,199
Speaker 1: CALMP down UM. The issue is that some of the

482
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: non compense station costs are going up. We have inflation broadly, UM.

483
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: We have wages and businesses that are not related to

484
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: capital markets that are impacted by inflation. UM. So net

485
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 1: net investors are not going to like, uh some of

486
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: the negative operating leverage that we're going to see at

487
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 1: the banks. UM. So we think that there will be

488
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 1: pressing questions in terms of what's coming in the final quarter.

489
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: Will compensation appruals be depressed further to help UM offset

490
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: some of the lower revenues that we've just discussed, And

491
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: how are they looking at investments and discretionaries spending? Will

492
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: there be some pullback there as well? So, I mean

493
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: in the in the deals, in the fees space, I

494
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: can't remember the last time we had a juicy m

495
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: N a trade other than Elon and Twitter. I can't

496
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: remember the last time we had a really big juicy

497
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: at all, the opposite of juicy, ye, So I mean, no,

498
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: it's definitely gone from feast to famine. Keeping keep in

499
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: mind that, you know, to your point, you can't remember

500
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: when we've seen some interesting transactions, you know, I p

501
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 1: O s are are very scarce. Last year was a

502
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: phenomenal year, record m and a record equity fees, and

503
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 1: we came into the year UM. You know, sort of

504
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: we were talking about compensation when we came into this year.

505
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,239
Speaker 1: UM the pressure was extreme because not just it's not

506
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,479
Speaker 1: just investment banks right like hedge funds, other people are

507
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 1: looking to hire UM the staff, so and the competition

508
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 1: from technology also raising UM sort of the cost to compete.

509
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: Now we've had the markets are sort of uh pulled back,

510
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: So that's going to pull back some of the pay pressure.

511
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 1: Also on the tech side of things, UM, as their

512
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: cost of capital goes up with these tupper markets, they

513
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 1: have less access to capital. That also UM has a

514
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: little bit of a relief aspect to their cost base.

515
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff, Allison, thank you so much as

516
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: always for joining us. We know you're gonna have a busy,

517
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 1: busy Friday coming up, Alison Williams. She covers all the

518
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: banks on a global basis for Bloomberg Intelligence. Alright. One

519
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 1: of the many many tickers Met Miller has taught me

520
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 1: over the years is one is m O V movers.

521
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 1: It gives you the big movers. You type in SMP

522
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: next and it gives you, you know, what are the

523
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: big gainers? What are the big losers of today? The

524
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 1: losers today number one, number two casino stocks win Las

525
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: Vegas stands. What's going on? And we just talked to

526
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 1: Mike mc loan. He's at Vegas. He said this strip

527
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: was hopping. Conferences are back, So we said, let's get

528
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: Brian egger On here. He does all this kind of

529
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: stuff ran Nigger, senior gaming and lodging analyst. Also the

530
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 1: cruise lines and all the fun stuff. Guy hasn't worked

531
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 1: a day in his life. Let me tell you he's

532
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg intelligence Brian, what's going on with the casino sucks?

533
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: I thought like China's letting people go gamble away their livelihoods.

534
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: Vegas has hopping. What's going on? Yeah, you're right, Paul,

535
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: I mean China really is the issue now. On the

536
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: one hand, to your point, we do have some good

537
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: news on the travel from We've gotten resumption of China

538
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: tour groups coming up, as well as the issuance of

539
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 1: online or e visas, which had helped travel volumes going

540
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 1: to next year. But at least a totally the feedback

541
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: is the Golden Week holiday was weaker than expected from

542
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: a gaming volume perspective, So we've still got a MACCAU

543
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: market with a lot of pressures after v I P

544
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: Junk of credit was basically banned West December. I think

545
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: those travel openings which I mentioned are good news going forward,

546
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: but you know, I sim it's going to take time

547
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 1: for those to pan out. The market is still quite

548
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: weak compared to pre pandemic levels. Who do you want

549
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: to own? I mean I was looking at when before

550
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: just because um, we were talking about how great it

551
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: would be to stay at one of their suites, and

552
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: then I ran the RV function relative value to see

553
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: who's bigger. Um, I look at competition like Las Vegas,

554
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 1: Sands like Boyd, like Pen like Caesar's, which is the

555
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 1: most desirable of the group. So the way I think

556
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: about this is if you if you want to avoid

557
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 1: fundamental exposure to Macao because you know that market likely

558
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: to be down at least this year versus pre pandemic levels,

559
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: then you know, really of the companies in North America, UM,

560
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,239
Speaker 1: you know, Sands and Win arguably the most exposed. You know,

561
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: falled by MGM. Um. You know right now it is

562
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: true that domestic but doesn't Win have their Macau business

563
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: broken out to Win Macau. It's still part of the

564
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: consolidated company, right, So you know when as a when

565
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: resorts as a company still has through its Macau subsidiaries,

566
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: substantial exposure to Macau, and now it's Sands out of Vegas,

567
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 1: it's really all the cow in Singapore. So if you

568
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: want it to be more domestically exposed among the bigger destinations.

569
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: You know, companies like MGM and Caesar's don't have that

570
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: McCaw exposure. And then of course all the regional companies

571
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: right now in North American gaming at least compared to

572
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: pre prodemic levels is by most standards back, which is

573
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: good news. But MACAU has the lingering effects of not

574
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: only the pandemic, but you know, clamp down on junk

575
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: at credit and other pressures. Yeah. If I look at

576
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: I always look at the comp screen, as you know, right,

577
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,719
Speaker 1: and um total return over the last five years for

578
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: Las Vegas sands down thirty for when down fifty five.

579
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: But if you look at you know, BOYD is up

580
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: eighty seven, Caesar's up thirty five, Pen up four mg

581
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: of five, so everybody else is killing it. Ye. Hey, Brian,

582
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: you know the only time I've I've been to Vegas

583
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: a lot. I love Vegas, but basically every time I

584
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: go to Vegas it's because of a conference, you know,

585
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: the c E S conference, the n a B, the

586
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: National Association Broadcasters, or any other conference I can glom

587
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: onto for for that matter, what is the concert business

588
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 1: in Vegas? Now? It was such a driver is such

589
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: a driver is it back the pre pandemic. It's un

590
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: back to where it was, which would be total room

591
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 1: nights for a company like MGM, but it's it's coming back,

592
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: and the bookings have been there. Of course, the question

593
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: is if you have meeting planners and trade associations and

594
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 1: businesses begin to experience some waiting confidence because of a

595
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: shaker economy, that could certainly effect the tone of bookings.

596
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: But based on the lag to seat back we have

597
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: and we're due for an update discerning season, the bookings

598
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: are winding up fairly well. I mean, ce yes, they're

599
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: gonna have a couple hundred thousand people there in January,

600
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: so I don't know. But all right, let's switch over

601
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 1: to cruises because I think Matt's thinking about his next

602
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: vacation and I think he should do a cruise. Take

603
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: the whole family, go down to you know, the Caribbean,

604
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: and you know, see see that part of the world.

605
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: How's the cruise business, Brian? So the Chris business from

606
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: the perspective of bookings, I mean, the good news is

607
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: the fleets are back in operation, um after that long

608
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 1: pandemic pause, and uh, you know right now they're not

609
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: only the fleets back, but after a lot of the

610
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: pandemic protocols are lifted, bookings have improved. The question of

611
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: course is whether or not profitability returns at a fast

612
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: enough pace. So the company is to continue to manage

613
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: liquidity and to manage their debt obligations, which which they have.

614
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: You know, we we were just at an investor media

615
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: a couple of days ago for Norwegian cruise Lines and

616
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: they expect to see record revenue yields and ibadad next year.

617
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: You know, so there's some good news in the out there.

618
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: You know, the recent feedback from Carnival was a little

619
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: bit more mixed, I thought in terms of the booking space,

620
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: but you know, there's you know, there's obviously concern what

621
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: happens in a slowing on To me, I think the

622
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: good news at least is that the chips are back

623
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: in operation and is pandemic protocols get lifted, bookings have revived,

624
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: so discretion or income, which is kind of how your

625
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: companies make their bread and butter bride, whether it's a

626
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: casino or a cruise line or a hotel. In a recession,

627
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: how sticky is that spending or is that one of

628
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 1: the first things that go I pull back on my vacations.

629
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 1: My cruise is my vagus, you know kind of trip. So,

630
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: I mean, historically, the cruise industry across the multiple decades

631
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 1: has performed well in economic downturns. This one is more

632
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: complex because you've got potentially rising inflation, You've got the

633
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: lingering effects of how consumers behave after the pandemic. But

634
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: you know, it depends, I think really on the severity

635
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,719
Speaker 1: in the hell effects overall consumer discretionary income, I mean gaming.

636
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: I think it really depends on the part of gaming

637
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 1: that we're talking about. Those regional markets have to date

638
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: held up really well despite higher gas prices and inflation,

639
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: so you know, it's some of the businesses are more

640
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: cyclical than others, the hotels, but I think a lot

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00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: of it depends on whether or not the consumer holds

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00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: up as well as it has so far. And you're

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00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 1: also just on the cruise ships. They stopped by the

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00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: gas tank there. It's a lot to fill up a

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00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: cruise ship, isn't it getting less and less? Right? Yeah,

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00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: I guess he would have beens been to help, and

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00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 1: obviously any any back off in bunker fuel prices would

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00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: be bunker helpful as much as they help the bunker

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00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 1: fuel so as much as they do hedge. You know,

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00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 1: it's a it's another cost pressure that has certainly you know,

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00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: weight on the companies. Can't put bunker fuel on my truck, No,

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00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 1: I don't think so it's got to be at least

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00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: octane doesn't Okay, which is the best. It's running about

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00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: four dollars and fifty cents. That's the credit price near me.

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00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: Just wait, but you gotta go electric. Maybe we'll get

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00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: electric cruise ships at some point. Brian Edgar, Senior Gaming

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00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: and Lodging ANALYSTEE covers the you know the cruises. I

658
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: mean again, the guy has not worked a day in

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00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: his life. You should see the trips he goes on.

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00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: Supposedly for research intelligence reasons, but it's a scam. But

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00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: he does that. He's been doing it for decades on

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00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: Wall Street. One of the time I know he's he's

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00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: gamed it. He's not a dumb guy. He went to

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00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: Wharton undergrad. You never Chicago for an NBA, so he

665
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 1: knows what he's up. And he's been doing this on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street four decades at DLJ Credit, Swiss, all great

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00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: shops before from him to Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks for listening

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00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen

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00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

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00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.

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00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,240
Speaker 1: Pet On Ball Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

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00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

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00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio