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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read.

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Speaker 1: Enough there for running a game.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, slidard sixting, just glorious ex procution, guys,

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Speaker 3: all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 2: Of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shot with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and that's.

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Speaker 4: Why you see yours beautiful tiers. Look at his movements

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Speaker 4: the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying the love it's left to of

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Speaker 3: the wide eyed, drilled pibus. How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving to our American listeners, and welcome to Wondergo,

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Speaker 1: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name

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Speaker 1: is Michael Eba, and joining me in just a second

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Speaker 1: are my Action colleagues Brej Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo, and

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Speaker 1: together the three of us will take you through the

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Speaker 1: entire Premier League slate for this upcoming weekend, and we'll

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Speaker 1: also shed some light on our favorite bets in La

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Speaker 1: Liga Syria Bundesliga League and then talk about our favorite

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Speaker 1: underdogs in the Premier League this weekend, plus our favorite

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Speaker 1: bets in England's top flight as well, but there's only

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Speaker 1: one place to start. That's at Stanford Bridge a Sunday

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Speaker 1: eleven thirty am kickoff. Chelsea minus one to eighty five

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Speaker 1: favorites against Manchester United, who are five to one the

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Speaker 1: draw US plus three thirty. We do need to say

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Speaker 1: right off the jump we are recording this before the

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Speaker 1: Champions League matches because of the holiday coming, so please

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Speaker 1: keep that in mind, but we will do our best

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Speaker 1: to break down every match as best we can. This

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Speaker 1: is going to be quite an interesting spectacle. Obviously, ole

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Speaker 1: a gunner Solshar is out of Manchester United. Michael Carrick

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Speaker 1: is in as the caretaker manager. This is his first

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Speaker 1: Premier League match. I don't think there's too much will

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Speaker 1: be able with glean from what man United does against

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Speaker 1: via Reale and Tuesday's match in the Champions League. Donnie

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Speaker 1: van de Bak is starting, Jaydon Sancho is starting, so

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Speaker 1: perhaps Karrock will start to work those guys into the

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Speaker 1: rotation a lot more than Solihard did. But other than that,

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Speaker 1: I don't really think you can be betting Manchester United

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Speaker 1: just because they have a good performance against a team

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Speaker 1: that is a lot worse than Chelsea. So no matter

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Speaker 1: what happens in Spain on Tuesday, let's pump the brakes

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Speaker 1: on United, Anthony, do you think there's any betting value

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Speaker 1: on either of these three outcomes? And over and under?

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Speaker 1: How are you playing the Sunday headliner? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: It feels like I've been sitting out a lot of

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Speaker 4: the headliners, which is kind of lame. But in this

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Speaker 4: case I'm passing here as well. You know, if Villa Reale,

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Speaker 4: you know, has a bad performance and United looks really

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Speaker 4: impressive under Michael Carrick, hopefully the line moves accordingly and

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Speaker 4: I can get in on some Chelsea here because I

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Speaker 4: agree United's problems are much deeper than Ola. They're going

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Speaker 4: to need a you know, a real time class manager

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Speaker 4: to come in and sort out kind of the personnel

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Speaker 4: misfits that they have. There's various issues which we've discussed

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Speaker 4: at length on this podcast. Seems like every week we

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Speaker 4: do like a mea culpa on Manchester United, at least

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Speaker 4: I do, and their issues aren't going to get solved.

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Speaker 4: And if you're playing a team like Chelsea who is

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Speaker 4: poised to you know, rip you apart. You know they've

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Speaker 4: been playing much better the last month, which will you know,

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Speaker 4: which was featured in the CBS Sports article. They had

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Speaker 4: an exclusive with Tukele and they said, you know, after

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Speaker 4: the loss to Juventus, when they lost the city, they

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Speaker 4: realized their actually numbers were worse. They realized certain things

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Speaker 4: and their build up were bad. They wanted to address them.

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Speaker 4: They said, you know, Toule attributed some of it to

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Speaker 4: hangover from the Euros, various things that led to Chelsea

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Speaker 4: kind of having a little bit of a scuffle, and

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Speaker 4: you know, we tried to fade them following that scuffle

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Speaker 4: and they started playing way better. Granted the competition wasn't great,

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Speaker 4: but overall here the number looks about right to me.

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Speaker 4: I show a tiny bit of value on Chelsea, but

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Speaker 4: not enough to lay the goal here. I think everybody

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Speaker 4: will be piling on United and that's fine, but I

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Speaker 4: will be passing here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm waiting to see where this market moves.

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Speaker 1: I like Chelsea minus one at even money or better.

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Speaker 1: This United defense is still you can't trust them. Raphael

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Speaker 1: Veron has been hurt, Harry Maguire is terrible right now,

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Speaker 1: You're not going to trust the rest of those guys.

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Speaker 1: So the question to me is how many goals can

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Speaker 1: Manchester United score against this defense. It's probably not many.

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Speaker 1: That's at least what the numbers suggest. So I think Chelsea,

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Speaker 1: if they can get two or three, you're looking at

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Speaker 1: a pretty good chance to catch this bet. And I

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Speaker 1: think that there's a pretty good chance that they do.

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Speaker 1: Just that they should dominate this game, I think from

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Speaker 1: start to finish. So if there is a bet to

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Speaker 1: me made, I like Chelsea minus one or even you know,

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Speaker 1: minus one and a half. If you want to have

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Speaker 1: a little bit more fun, BJ what about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm agree with you, Anthony. This is kind of

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Speaker 2: a pass for me. I have Chelsea projected at minus

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Speaker 2: one sixty four, and like we've talked about a link,

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Speaker 2: it seems like every single episode about Chelsea negative aggression,

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Speaker 2: both offensively and defensively, you know, plus twenty six actual

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Speaker 2: goal differential versus twelve point nine to four expected goal differential.

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Speaker 2: But with that being said, a lot of what Chelsea's

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Speaker 2: overforming and x G problem is really come out of

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Speaker 2: different formations. When they're playing out of Tutel's traditional three

105
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Speaker 2: four to two to one, they're averaging two point three

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Speaker 2: four expected goals per ninety minutes and only allowing zero

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Speaker 2: point seven to eight expected goals per ninety minutes. The

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Speaker 2: Tuchel has missed around with a three to five to

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Speaker 2: two in a five to three two, and it really

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Speaker 2: just hasn't worked, as Chelsea has is only averaging a

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Speaker 2: little over one expected goal when playing out of those formations.

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Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, I mean, even though Olgunni Solihar has gone,

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Speaker 2: their problems are not gone at all. They're going to

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Speaker 2: be without Verana Pogba, Cavannie Greenwood McGuire and potentially Luke

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Speaker 2: Shaw as question blow well as well, So very thin

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Speaker 2: at the back, playing against one of the best offensive

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Speaker 2: teams in England right now, and they're playing out of

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Speaker 2: a fourth two three to one today against the Arel.

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Speaker 2: If they play out of that again, that means it's

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Speaker 2: going to be probably Bruno Fernandez, maybe Jaden Sancho, whoever.

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Speaker 2: But they're providing nothing defensively in terms of help, so

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Speaker 2: basically just leave Scott mctomanay and fred on Islands and

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Speaker 2: then with Harry maguire also being out and no Vane,

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Speaker 2: it's a really bad defense. So I just don't really

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Speaker 2: know how Manchester United's going to cope in this match.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you, Michael. If there is something I'm

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Speaker 2: going to play in this one, I'm going to chase

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Speaker 2: a Chelsea ault line, something like a minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half or maybe a minus two to get some

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Speaker 2: juicy odds, because I could see this match going similarly

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Speaker 2: to how Many United's matches against Manchester City and Liverpool

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Speaker 2: went earlier this season. So other than those alt lines

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Speaker 2: to pass.

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Speaker 4: For me, there's been a bit of a paradigm shift

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Speaker 4: with Chelsea recently, and that's kind of attributed to what

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Speaker 4: BJ was mentioning with the formations and how they've been

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Speaker 4: doing much better. That actually coincided with the Doukaku injury,

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Speaker 4: so they've been playing kind of haverts in a solo

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Speaker 4: nine role and Tuco mentioned this in the interview. He said, look,

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Speaker 4: we don't want to win games one nil, two nil anymore.

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Speaker 4: We think we can score more than we did last season.

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Speaker 4: And what happened with Chelsea down the stretch, they had

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Speaker 4: a couple of zero zeros, a couple of one ones,

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Speaker 4: and what we've seen is if you want to win

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Speaker 4: a Premier League title, you need to be able to

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Speaker 4: put up two to three plus goals against the bad

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Speaker 4: teams because you don't want to risk a fluke draw

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Speaker 4: like what happened against Burnley. And we've seen Chelsea has

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Speaker 4: been much more aggressive with leaves this year than they

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Speaker 4: were last year. I think that paradigm shift makes them

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Speaker 4: a better favorite and probably less of Stone under team,

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Speaker 4: which they were last year. But in this case, again,

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Speaker 4: United seems about right in terms of the price.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on Saturday seven thirty am kickoff.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal minus two thirty favorites against Newcastle, who are plus

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Speaker 1: five point fifty on the money line the draws plus

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Speaker 1: four to twenty five. The Gunners are coming off a

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Speaker 1: terrible loss to Liverpool last weekend where they gave up

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Speaker 1: almost four expected goals. It was a gut punch for

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Speaker 1: this team, right. They were looking really good, they were

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Speaker 1: kind of trending up and then they ran into a

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Speaker 1: team that's just much better than them. So I was

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Speaker 1: hoping that as that game was going on, I was like,

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Speaker 1: all right, maybe I'll be able to buy low again

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Speaker 1: on Arsenal, which isn't something that you can do that

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Speaker 1: often just because of their stature. But then I saw

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Speaker 1: who they were playing, and it's Newcastle, and it's really

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Speaker 1: tough to do that against to be competent in this

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Speaker 1: Newcastle team. We've said it once, but at bears repeating.

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Speaker 1: This is a club full of players, coaches, backroom staff.

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Speaker 1: Everybody well, I guess the coaching staff is now knows

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Speaker 1: they're there right like with Eddie Howe, But the players

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Speaker 1: certainly don't. Why would you go all out for this

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Speaker 1: club when you are likely to be shipped out pretty soon.

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Speaker 1: There's just too much tumult to get involved. Newcastle's now

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Speaker 1: minus won fifty to be relegated. They're three to one

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Speaker 1: to finish dead less in the Premier League. I think

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Speaker 1: the only way to bet this is taking an Arsenal blowout.

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Speaker 1: Other than that, I'll stay away. BJ. How are you

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Speaker 1: playing this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? That was the most predictable Arsenal performance of all time.

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Speaker 2: This is anybody who's a fan of Arsenal and knows

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Speaker 2: this is exactly exactly what they do. They get your

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Speaker 2: hopes up over a stretch of a couple of weeks

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Speaker 2: and then they just curb stomp all your hopes with

186
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Speaker 2: performance against a good team. But with that being said,

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Speaker 2: as far as Newcastle is concerned, we were wondering what

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Speaker 2: they were going to do with Eddie Howe in charge,

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Speaker 2: We're wondering if they were going to stay more defensive

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Speaker 2: like they have been under Steve Bruce and the caretaker manager,

191
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Speaker 2: or if they were going to play open like Eddie

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Speaker 2: Howe's FORMA teams have played in the past. And the

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Speaker 2: answer was, they're going to play a three four three

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Speaker 2: and they're going to play open. But they were actually

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Speaker 2: pretty good against Brentford. They were definitely the better team

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Speaker 2: in that match. They won the expected goals battle two

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Speaker 2: point one eight to one point two to three, thirty

198
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Speaker 2: five touches in Brentford's penalty area, thirty six shot creating actions,

199
00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,360
Speaker 2: so those are really good offensive performance. And you know,

200
00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,160
Speaker 2: the stylistic change is pretty big, you know, switching from

201
00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 2: a five to three to two to a three four three.

202
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Speaker 2: But the big thing about it is is Brentford was

203
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Speaker 2: very clinical with a few big chances they had and

204
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Speaker 2: that was typically how Brentford plays. And for a Newcastle

205
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Speaker 2: defense that's you know, pretty much close to dead last

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Speaker 2: and every single defensive category, their defensive woes aren't going

207
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Speaker 2: to get much better going forward. So now you're playing

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Speaker 2: an arsenal team that's more clinical in the final third,

209
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Speaker 2: has better attacking players than Brentford does and is averaging

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Speaker 2: one point nine to two. Expect the goals per match

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Speaker 2: at home this season. I'm going to chase an all

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Speaker 2: over here. I'm going to go over three and a

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Speaker 2: half goals at plus one fifty because another big thing

214
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Speaker 2: is that, you know, Newcastle is really bad versus pressure,

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Speaker 2: but like we I mentioned the last episode, Arsenal hardly

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Speaker 2: ever pressures and they're not very good when they actually

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Speaker 2: do because they're dead last and passes per defensive action.

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Speaker 2: So Newcastle's issues won't be exploited going forward. So over

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Speaker 2: three and a half goals at plus one fifty is

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Speaker 2: to play for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that one thing we've learning about this

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Speaker 1: Arsenal team too is that they are like, this is

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Speaker 1: a young team for the most part, right, they have

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Speaker 1: a couple of older strikers, but the engine room, right,

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Speaker 1: this is a team that is going to go through

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Speaker 1: some growing paints here and there, and they're likely to

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Speaker 1: come against the much better competition, and I think that

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Speaker 1: they are going to be able to pumble other teams

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Speaker 1: like Newcastle because a talent cap will be wide enough.

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Speaker 1: So Anthony, I know you're going to try to make

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Speaker 1: a case for the Magpies here. I do think that

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Speaker 1: that's a little insane, but this is betting, right.

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Speaker 4: I am a little insane. But what's insane is that

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Speaker 4: I had friends texting me last week that Arsenal was

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Speaker 4: a legitimate Top four contender heading into that Liverpool match,

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Speaker 4: and I kind of laughed. I laughed at the message

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Speaker 4: and then kind of gave out a little theory on

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Speaker 4: why that's not really a case. And I'll have an

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Speaker 4: article up on the Action Network kind of my weekend

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Speaker 4: recap on why I don't think they're even close to

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Speaker 4: that level. And reality is they should pummel teams like Newcastle.

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Speaker 4: A top four team who is a legitimate contender for

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Speaker 4: a Champions League place would pummel a team like Newcastle

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Speaker 4: or Watford. But Arsenal hasn't done that. They've scored at

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Speaker 4: least or posted at least one point five non penalty

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Speaker 4: expected goals three times this season. It was against Crystal Palace,

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Speaker 4: Aston Villa and against Norwich City. They have been very

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Speaker 4: mid table esque in their performances when they've played teams

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Speaker 4: like Burnley, teams like Watford where they're grinding out results,

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Speaker 4: and you'd expect a team that was young and improving

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Speaker 4: for their young players to continue to get better and

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Speaker 4: post better numbers, but Oda guard hasn't really improved. Socca's

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00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 4: numbers are very similar to last year. Ema'spit throw has

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Speaker 4: taken a step forward, but at the same time, Obama,

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Speaker 4: Yang and Lacazette's numbers are down. And so when you

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Speaker 4: look at overall, this Arsenal attack does not have enough shots,

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Speaker 4: does not have enough high quality chances for me to

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Speaker 4: back them to lay one and a half spread against

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Speaker 4: a Newcastle team who we don't know if Eddie Haw

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Speaker 4: will be on the sideline for this match at this

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Speaker 4: current moment we're recording on Tuesday, but if he is,

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Speaker 4: there's got to be some kind of boosts there. And

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Speaker 4: I think Newcastle, if we're going to get any kind

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Speaker 4: of performance out of them, and they're going to show

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Speaker 4: any kind of life, it's going to be in the

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Speaker 4: next few weeks. Early in the Eddie Howe era and

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Speaker 4: I like bj mentioned, Arsenal doesn't press particularly well. There's

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Speaker 4: still vulnerable on the counter. They're due for some defensive

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Speaker 4: regression based on their numbers. Ramsdale has been the best

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Speaker 4: keeper in the prem besides Mendy, I'm not buying that

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Speaker 4: to continue. I want a better number here right now.

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Speaker 4: Newcastle plus one and a half is minus one forty.

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Speaker 4: If I get one twenty, I'll be firing. So hopefully

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Speaker 4: we get some Arsenal steam and I can get on

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Speaker 4: a Newcastle because I don't trust Arsenal to get margin.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I had Aaron Ramsdale man. Everybody owns that guy in

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Speaker 1: apology all right? Another myself included, Yeah, everybody, like everybody

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Speaker 1: who's talked about him prior to that transfer. What's wrong?

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to another London team. This

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Speaker 1: is South London's team, Crystal Palace. There plus one twenty

282
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Speaker 1: home favorites against Steven Gerard's Aston Villa, who are plus

283
00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:49,319
Speaker 1: two forty. The draw also plus two forty. This is

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Speaker 1: ten am on Saturday. It became pretty obvious, I think,

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Speaker 1: pretty quickly to people who are really smart and intelligent

286
00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 1: like myself, that this Crystal Palace team was a lot

287
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,160
Speaker 1: better than the get realized early in the season, and

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Speaker 1: I kept betting into them, they kept drawing, and now

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Speaker 1: I'm starting to bear fruits of that labor. As one

290
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Speaker 1: of my old school teachers used to say you mustn't

291
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:12,920
Speaker 1: always reaped, sometimes you must sew. And I was sewing

292
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,280
Speaker 1: a lot with this Crystal Palace team, and now I

293
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Speaker 1: am reaping a lot, and I'm going to continue to reap.

294
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Speaker 1: They're plus one twenty. I think that's a pretty good

295
00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,520
Speaker 1: number at home third best expectacles against the fifth best

296
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:27,959
Speaker 1: expectacle differential per ninety in the Premier League. Plus you're

297
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,319
Speaker 1: getting a nice cell high spot on Aston Villa, who

298
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,520
Speaker 1: have been pedestrian at best for most of the season. Yes,

299
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Speaker 1: new managers in and they did look pretty good in

300
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Speaker 1: a very low event win over Brighton this past weekend.

301
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Speaker 1: But I think a lot of people will be betting

302
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Speaker 1: into that narrative, so you might even get a better

303
00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,800
Speaker 1: number on Palace. I love Palace at this number. Any

304
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,480
Speaker 1: number like plus money or better is worth a bet

305
00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,679
Speaker 1: to me. Give me the Eagles, give me Patrick Fierra's revolution,

306
00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,360
Speaker 1: gimme Connor Gallagher's flowing blonde hair in the midfield and

307
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Speaker 1: let's go Eagles Up the Eagles, Crystal Palace. Don't look now,

308
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:01,880
Speaker 1: but this team a gate crash like top eight, top

309
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,280
Speaker 1: six when all said and done, BJ, are you joining

310
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:06,360
Speaker 1: me on the Palace party.

311
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,079
Speaker 2: No, I'm passing on this one, and I'm kind of

312
00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,840
Speaker 2: monitoring the aston Villa line. If Krystal Palace gets steamed,

313
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,920
Speaker 2: I might play aston Villa plus half a goal if

314
00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:16,240
Speaker 2: I can get a decent number on that. I mean,

315
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,439
Speaker 2: the reality is the aston Villa really didn't do much

316
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,240
Speaker 2: offensively and Steven Gerrards, you know, first match against Brighton

317
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,360
Speaker 2: only zero point eighty three expected goals. Obviously they scored twice,

318
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,080
Speaker 2: but this is a you know, a defense that has

319
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,200
Speaker 2: been really regressing, has not been playing well. They obviously

320
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,360
Speaker 2: played well against Brighton, who you know is a bottom

321
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 2: five offensive team so far in the Premier League. But

322
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:38,080
Speaker 2: Christal Palace offense like they still have some issues, like

323
00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,320
Speaker 2: Christian bentech A, you know, he's not finishing at a

324
00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:42,880
Speaker 2: very high rates, like they're still near the bottom and

325
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Speaker 2: expected goals four. Obviously their defense is very good. But

326
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Speaker 2: if I can get a good price on asen Villa

327
00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:49,400
Speaker 2: in this one with the new manager Bounds, I think

328
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Speaker 2: I have to do it. Other than that it's passed

329
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Speaker 2: for me.

330
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,840
Speaker 1: Well, that is your loss, because Palace is going to

331
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,080
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun to watch again as they

332
00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,640
Speaker 1: always are. Another team that's been fun to watch unless

333
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,720
Speaker 1: you are me and hate them. Liverpool minus three ninety

334
00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 1: favorites against Southampton. This game is at Anfield, who are

335
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 1: Southampton's plus nine to fifty on the money line. The

336
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 1: draws plus five to fifty tenday am kickoff on Saturday.

337
00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 1: Southampton is due for some offensive regression. We beat that

338
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,160
Speaker 1: point home a lot on this podcast. There underperforming there

339
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 1: expected goes forward by almost six goals. I don't know

340
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 1: if that regression is going to come against Liverpool because well,

341
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 1: Liverpool's probably going to score a ton here because Southampton

342
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:29,760
Speaker 1: is a team that loves suppress and I feel like

343
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,600
Speaker 1: that will play right into Jurgen klops Men's hands. However,

344
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 1: I will take a shot because I do think the

345
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 1: Southampton team is a lot better than I thought they

346
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,400
Speaker 1: were going to be and start of the season my

347
00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,320
Speaker 1: Southampton to be less at Christmas doesn't look like it's

348
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,920
Speaker 1: going to cash. But I'm willing to change my tune

349
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 1: on teams and I like the Saints. Here A very

350
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,960
Speaker 1: small for fun bet on the money line for me.

351
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:52,760
Speaker 1: Anthony up the Saints.

352
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Speaker 4: Yeah. I love betting Southampton against Liverpool. I think I've

353
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 4: done it every time these two teams have played for

354
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,480
Speaker 4: the last three years. I'm doing it again. It's all

355
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:03,520
Speaker 4: about Southampton's ability to play a high tempo, high intensity

356
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 4: game with Liverpool and how that benefits them in this matchup.

357
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,480
Speaker 4: A lot of teams get overwhelmed by the pressure, get

358
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,680
Speaker 4: overwhelmed by the pressing machine that is Liverpool Football Club.

359
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 4: Southampton will be very comfortable playing that up tempo kind

360
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 4: of style. Defensively, when Southampton had played against some of

361
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 4: the bigger sides in the league this year, they've been

362
00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 4: pretty solid. They've been improved at the defensive end. We

363
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,600
Speaker 4: mentioned McCarthy regression on the last episode when we bet

364
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 4: the over in that game and he had two hollers,

365
00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 4: which is kind of funny. But Southampton is still a

366
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 4: team who is solidly mid table. But Liverpool is very

367
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,240
Speaker 4: over inflated in my numbers based on last performance. So

368
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:45,960
Speaker 4: you can find a plus one and a half at

369
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 4: plus one fifteen, plus one twenty out there. That's where

370
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 4: I'm going on this one. I think, like I mentioned,

371
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,160
Speaker 4: Liverpool probably wins this game. I just don't think they'll

372
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 4: get margin. I do think Southampton will score here and

373
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 4: Liverpool has some injury concerns up front. Roberto for me

374
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 4: is out, Diego Jota is questionable, Jergan said yesterday unclear

375
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,560
Speaker 4: if he's gonna play. He's definitely not gonna play against Porto.

376
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,600
Speaker 4: Looks like on Wednesday recording this before the Champions League,

377
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,719
Speaker 4: so not really clear who the goal guy is going

378
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 4: to be. A Rigi's out as well, So if it's

379
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 4: just Solid and Mane, that definitely hurts the attack, even

380
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 4: though they're both incredible, and even though Fabinho and thiagor back.

381
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,400
Speaker 4: I think it's a good look here to sell high

382
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 4: on Liverpool off of a huge, huge win against Arsenal

383
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,760
Speaker 4: last week, whereas I think Arsenal was not stylistically ready

384
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 4: for that matchup. Southampton has a better edge here and

385
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:35,680
Speaker 4: an ability to compete defensively.

386
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,919
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think we always mentioned about Liverpool like their

387
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 1: price is always going to be inflated, but they also

388
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 1: win a lot. So it's a frustrating team to bet against,

389
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 1: the team that I bet against a lot because of

390
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,160
Speaker 1: that conundrum, what are you gonna do? But yet Saints

391
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: or nothing for me? Don't look now. Norwich City winners

392
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,920
Speaker 1: of two in a row plus two fifty home underdogs

393
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 1: against our Wolves ooh plus one twenty road favorites the

394
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,920
Speaker 1: draw plus two thirty five another ten am kickoff on Saturday.

395
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 1: Wolves are seventh and expected points at six overall, so

396
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: this team is legitimately good. Bruno Lage. David Moyes is

397
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 1: getting a ton of accolades for being one of the

398
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 1: better managers in the Premier League season. Thomas Tookel Bruno

399
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 1: o lagh should be in this conversation too, with the

400
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 1: job he's done. Obviously, Patrick fihere as well. I love

401
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,920
Speaker 1: Wolves on this number. I think it's crazy to be

402
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 1: able to say this, but I think this is a

403
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:25,159
Speaker 1: cell high spot on Norich City. So how about that

404
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 1: Dean Smith's Norwich City. They were a little lucky in

405
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,840
Speaker 1: their win last weekend and this is a good chance

406
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 1: to bet against a team that is a team that

407
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 1: I wish I could bet against all the time. But

408
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 1: because their numbers just are was outrageous, I very rarely

409
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 1: can so gimme Wolves plus one twenty bj Are you

410
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 1: joining the pack?

411
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 2: Yeah? This line doesn't really make a whole lot of

412
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,639
Speaker 2: sense to me. I mean, are we really going to

413
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,400
Speaker 2: give Norwich credit after you know, two wins against Brentford

414
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,399
Speaker 2: and Southampton, where they lost the expected goals battle combined

415
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,440
Speaker 2: three point four to one point nine. I mean, it's

416
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,399
Speaker 2: there's still one of the worst defensive teams in the

417
00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 2: Premier League. They' bottom three and shots for ninety allowed,

418
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed, box centuries allowed and non penalty

419
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 2: expected goals where they're allowing one point seven to eight

420
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,199
Speaker 2: per match. So I really don't know how they're going

421
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 2: to stop Wolves in transition, like the Wolves is incredibly deadly,

422
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 2: like Wolves is incredible versus pressure as well, and they're

423
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 2: really good at creating big scoring chances because they've already

424
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 2: created nineteen so far this season. You know, Dean Smith obviously,

425
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 2: you know, in the past he was able to turn

426
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: around aston Villa's defense, which is one of the worst

427
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 2: in the Premier League, you know, before the pandemic and

428
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 2: then afterwards you know they turned to in a pretty

429
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,119
Speaker 2: good defensive outfit, but there were still problems you know,

430
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 2: this year, and if he's going to turn around you know,

431
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 2: Norwich's defense into somewhat respectable, it's going to take some time.

432
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 2: Like it's not just going to happen overnight. So I

433
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 2: really don't know how Norwich is gonna hang in this match.

434
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 2: They're still dead last offensively in non penalty expected goal

435
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 2: shots per ninety in box centuries. But what's maybe the

436
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 2: most shocking stat I found with Norwich. They've created three

437
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 2: big scoring chances all season long. Three We're at twelve

438
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 2: matches now and Wolves is second best in the Premier

439
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,879
Speaker 2: League in big scoring chances allowed and than shots for ninety.

440
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 2: So I think this line is an overreaction to Norwich

441
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: winning two matches in a row, which I think is

442
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,159
Speaker 2: kind of crazy. I have Wolves projected at minus one

443
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,679
Speaker 2: on nine, so I agree with you. I love them

444
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 2: at plus one fifteen.

445
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,919
Speaker 1: I mean, and I don't really know where this line's

446
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,239
Speaker 1: going to go. I'm assuming it'll move towards Wolves at

447
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 1: some point, so you might want to bet this one

448
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: a little earlier. But you know these we do see

449
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: recency bias as a thing in betting, and maybe it

450
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: does kind of stay around this range. Anthony, are you

451
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 1: going to make a three for three on Wolverhampton? Yeah?

452
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 4: I am minus. Want to wait for me even game states.

453
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 4: Wolve's been the fifth best team in the league this year.

454
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 4: They've also been the seventh best team in the league

455
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 4: at all game states. When it's eleven on eleven, Norwich

456
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 4: dead last in both I understand the new manager bounds.

457
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 4: We cash bets on Norwich each of the last two weeks,

458
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 4: I think in various ways, but again, scoring some fluky

459
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,719
Speaker 4: goals off of goalkeeper airs and a penalty against two

460
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 4: teams that were due for some defensive regression not that impressive.

461
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 4: If they put together a great performance against Wolves, I'll

462
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 4: be the first two min I was wrong. I'm glad

463
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 4: we don't have to do the Derby County thing anymore

464
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 4: because they were never that bad. But they are still

465
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 4: very bad. And I think their possession type play, I

466
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 4: don't know if it'll be different than Dean Smith, but

467
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 4: they're still going to be some Nigel Daniel Farka in

468
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 4: the in the system here. But that being said, Wolves's

469
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 4: ability to counter them when Norwich loses the ball high

470
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 4: on the pitch, wolves ability to press high will disrupt

471
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 4: the Norwich patterns of possession. And at one point in

472
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 4: the game last week Norwich ect me Southampton had thirteen shots.

473
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 4: Norwich had won, so this game was not very even

474
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 4: in the box score. It was kind of a fluke

475
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 4: final and I agree. We can sell high On Norwich

476
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 4: here and take it and make it three for three

477
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 4: on Wolves ooh ooh Brighton or plus.

478
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 1: One ten home favorites against Leeds plus two seventy that

479
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 1: draw us plus two fifty twelve thirty kickoff on Saturday.

480
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 1: Leads coming up a loss in which they blew a

481
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 1: one mill lead to Spurs Brighton, where the team that

482
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: suffered the two nil defeat to Aston Villa. The Leads

483
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: offense is starting to come to life a little bit.

484
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 1: They've created at least one and a half expected goals

485
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 1: in three of their last four matches Brighton. They have

486
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: a negative expected goal differential on the season. Is that

487
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: still enough to believe that this Leads team can pull

488
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: one over on Brighton? BJ?

489
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, because this is a fantastic match for Brighton,

490
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 2: who are fantastic against pressure and that's the biggest thing.

491
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 2: How they've you know, beaten the Leads in the past.

492
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 2: They you know, won both meetings against them last year.

493
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 2: Brighton third in the Premier League in pressure success, very

494
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 2: allowed and passes per defensive action. You know, it's obviously

495
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: no surprise that Marcello Bielz's side, is you know first

496
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 2: and passes per defensive action and pressure success rate, but

497
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: you know that's a lot of that is comes against

498
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 2: teams that just you know, lower sides that aren't very

499
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 2: good against pressure. Now the Brighton offense is nowhere near,

500
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: you know, playing at the level it was last season.

501
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,439
Speaker 2: They're only averaging point nine to four non penalty expected

502
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: goles per match. But you know they're facing the Leads

503
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: defense that allowed two point twenty four expected goals to

504
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 2: Tottenham and overall for the season are allowing one point

505
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 2: six to two expected goals, so I think Brighton will

506
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 2: be afford a lot of open space behind the defense. Also,

507
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 2: Patrick Bamford aling Coke are out for this one. Also

508
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 2: Rodriguro is questionable, so Leads getting a little thin all

509
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: around there starting eleven. But Brighton's defense is still playing

510
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 2: at an elite level. Their seventh and non penalty expectacles

511
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 2: allowed sixth and shots per ninety loud third and big

512
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 2: scoring chances allowed, which is huge because Leeds is nineteenth

513
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 2: and big scoring chances created. So I think this is

514
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: a fantastic match for Brighton and how good they are

515
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: versus the press. And also, you know, Brighton is you

516
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 2: know a top four team in terms of pressing where

517
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 2: it leads is seventeenth against pressure. So i've bright And

518
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 2: projected at minus one oh four. So if you can

519
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: find them at plus one ten or better at home,

520
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 2: I think there's some value on them to get all

521
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: three points.

522
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: There are some lineup concerns for this one, and Anthony,

523
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: you are waiting for those to come through before you

524
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: make your play, right, Yeah.

525
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 4: That's right. You know Leeds. Rafina looks like he may

526
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 4: be back, which helps their attack, but it looks like

527
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 4: Luke Ailing, Robin Cock and Patrick Bamford are all going

528
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 4: to be out for this one. Again, Leeds looked very

529
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 4: toothless in attack against Tottenham, especially after halftime when Spurs

530
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 4: made some adjustments. Tottenham pretty much shut them out in

531
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 4: the second half. There was very little going on there

532
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 4: going forward, so I have questions about Leeds ability to

533
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 4: score on it's one of the best defenses in the

534
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 4: Premier League in Brighton and then going forward, I mean

535
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 4: Brighton don't have enough shots and Potter's receiving a lot

536
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 4: of criticism, a lot of stick in the media for

537
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: not starting Neil Malpey. He may make a return. I

538
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 4: just don't really trust Brighton scoring goals right now the

539
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 4: way that they have almost nobody to get shots. I mean,

540
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 4: Trossard is not a true striker, good enough striker, and

541
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 4: they don't have enough around him to kind of make

542
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 4: up for that loss of shots. And what happened in

543
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 4: the Villa game is pretty much what I expected, which

544
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 4: was a lot of possession in dangerous areas that led

545
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 4: to not very many shots at both ends of the

546
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 4: pitch until Ollie Watkins had one great moment and one

547
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 4: great goal. So I'm passing here for now, but I'm

548
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 4: leaning towards the under two and a half. We're gonna

549
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,479
Speaker 4: wait to see what we get on lineups and then

550
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 4: potentially make a move on the under.

551
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: It's a fun schedule in the Premier League this weekend.

552
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: A host of Sunday games, including four at nine am,

553
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 1: which is a rarity. One of them Manchester City minus

554
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 1: three twenty against west Ham, who are eight to one

555
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: the draws plus five point fifty. These is two of

556
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: top five defenses in the Premier League. City the best

557
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: team in the league, maybe the best team in the world.

558
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: West Ham one of the better teams in the Premier

559
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: League this season. But they are coming off a loss

560
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 1: two Wolves. I think there is some value on the

561
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: draw here. Plus five point fifty is a big number

562
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: for draw betting. Draw with an over under that's set

563
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: pretty high as this one is is not great betting hygiene,

564
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: but I still think there will be some outliers and

565
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: I do think that this situation it calls for it.

566
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 1: Like I mean, I don't City is a pretty slow

567
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 1: moving beast and west Ham will try to come into

568
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: this game and David Moyes as a manager who has

569
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: no problems trying to set his team up to get

570
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: the best possible result out of the matchup that they

571
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 1: are facing. So I don't know if west Ham will

572
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 1: play as open. They have been a pretty high event

573
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 1: team this season, but I don't think that that style

574
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 1: is going to be what we'll see on Sunday. They

575
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 1: also will be missing Agbana, one of their center backs,

576
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 1: so they could even set up more defensively to protect

577
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 1: that whole as well. So I like to draw here

578
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: plus five point fifty BJ. You think this could be

579
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 1: a pretty slow moving, low event match as well, right.

580
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I honestly I was really looking forward

581
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 2: to this match when I saw it on the schedule

582
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: and now that o'bonna's out, it kind of puts a

583
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: huge blow in it for me because you know, he

584
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 2: is the one that sets up all of their build

585
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 2: up play. He has the most touches of any defender

586
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: for west Ham this season. So it's a big loss,

587
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 2: and especially going against the offense like Manchester City. It's

588
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 2: not necessarily good for west Ham since they had to

589
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 2: play Craig Dawson alongside Kurtzuma. But you know the match

590
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 2: against Liverpool, west Ham only held thirty two percent possession,

591
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 2: was able to hit Liverpool on the counter a few

592
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 2: times and you know I had a goal off obviously

593
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: off a corner, so you know you could see something

594
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 2: similar to that. You know, it looks like there'll be

595
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: no Jack Realish or Kevin de Bruyne this season this

596
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: weekend as well, which is helps obviously for west Ham. Obviously,

597
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 2: Manchester City has you know, a lot of depth in

598
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,959
Speaker 2: their attacking midfielder ranks, but you know those are Manchester

599
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: City's best too. I'll be honest, it's really hard to

600
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 2: poke holes in Manchester City now. It's very, very difficult

601
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: to find a lot of negatives with this team. The

602
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 2: only thing I can say is, you know they are

603
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 2: somewhat struggling from years past without a true striker up top.

604
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 2: They've obviously played very well and they've dominated a lot

605
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 2: of teams. But west Ham is a very good defensive team.

606
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 2: You know their top six and non penalty expected goals,

607
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 2: and this is going to be a better defense than

608
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 2: they saw last weekend against Everton, who had to play

609
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 2: Michael Keene alongside Ben Godfried. So I only have two

610
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 2: point six to eight goals projected for this one. I'm

611
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 2: going to be monitoring this over under. I'll honestly probably

612
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 2: end up be playing three goals under three goals at

613
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 2: plus money, but I want to see if maybe I

614
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 2: can get a good price on under three and a

615
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 2: half goals.

616
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 1: Leicester City minus won sixty five home favors against Watford

617
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: plus four to twenty five the draw of plus three

618
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: thirty another nine am kickoff on Sunday. Claudio Ranieri comes

619
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: back to the King Power Stadium where they should just

620
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 1: when he shows up with Watford, when he shows up

621
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 1: on the touch line, that stadium should have a standing

622
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 1: ovation for like forty five minutes, just because I still

623
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 1: think we underestimate just what happened when less They're won

624
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 1: the title five or so years ago with Venieri in charge.

625
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: Watford cash plus five fifty for me against Manchester United

626
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: last weekend. This number should probably be a little bit

627
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: higher on them, but a result like that will skew it.

628
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: And I don't really think I'm in the business of

629
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: laying this kind of juice with Lester either. This is

630
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,199
Speaker 1: a team that it just drives me nuts because every

631
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 1: time it looks like they're trending towards putting everything together,

632
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: a part of their game kind of falls off the wagon.

633
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna sit this one out. Anthony, Are you

634
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: going back to the Hornets?

635
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely lean that way. I mean, they've played better

636
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 4: the last few weeks since Ryanieri has come in. I know,

637
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 4: of course, they had the huge win that ended the

638
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 4: ole era and you know, and that was awesome. We

639
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 4: don't know the status of a smile a sar. He

640
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 4: has to play for me to like Watford in this game.

641
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 4: He's their best attacking player. He is excellent on the

642
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 4: counter attack, and I really think that Lester is vulnerable

643
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: to these kind of teams. We saw what Crystal Palace

644
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 4: is able to do to them, to score multiple goals

645
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 4: here and kind of win the ball in the midfield

646
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 4: and immediately break similar to how Lester has you know,

647
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: lined up against the big teams and had success over

648
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 4: the last few years. I think Watford can kind of,

649
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 4: you know, do that to them. I lean towards Watford

650
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 4: plus one, but I'm going to be waiting on injury

651
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 4: news again on Sarrow, because without him their attack loses

652
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 4: quite a bit of its luster. And defensively, like I

653
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 4: mentioned with Leicester City, fifth fewest big scoring chances allowed,

654
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 4: sounds like a great number, and it is a great number,

655
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 4: but when you look at all their other defensive numbers,

656
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 4: I mean they're eighteenth in shots allowed, thirteenth and non

657
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 4: penalty XG allowed, thirteenth in box entries, fourteenth and crosses allowed.

658
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 4: That they're not their nineteenth ball recoveries. That they're not

659
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 4: a good defense by almost any metric, and it almost

660
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 4: feels like they might be even worse if they start

661
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 4: conceding high quality chances, which Watford generally is good at

662
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 4: getting with their ability to go on the counter. And

663
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 4: so that's where I think this is a vulnerable, lesser

664
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 4: team here. But again. I hate the idea of selling

665
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 4: low on Leicester after four to three goal thrashing and

666
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 4: buying high on Watford after they just smashed Man United.

667
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 4: So I'm probably gonnaend up passing here, but I leaned

668
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 4: George watch.

669
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: For busbe Burnley plus two to seventy home underdogs against

670
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: Antonio Conte's Tottenham Hotspur plus one hundred on the money line.

671
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: That draws plus two sixty five another nine am kickoff

672
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: on Sunday. Conte got his first Premier League victory with

673
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: Tottenham last weekend in a two to one win over Leeds.

674
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: I don't really think they were particularly impressive, and that's

675
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 1: Leeds is a team that will give up goals for fun. Burnley,

676
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: by the way, also this season is giving up goals

677
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: for fun. That's usually not the case. I think if

678
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: I had to bet this match, i'd lean towards Burnley.

679
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna wait to see if this number it

680
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 1: ticks up a little bit more. I think three to

681
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: one would probably be where I got in BJ. You

682
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: believe in Sean Ditsch and the Clarits this weekend, don't you?

683
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: I do, because I like I agree with you. I

684
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 2: don't think Tottam was impressive at all against Lee's last Sunday. Yeah,

685
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 2: they got a deserving two one win by expected goals,

686
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 2: but Leeds held fifty seven percent possession. They outshot Tottenham

687
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 2: seventeen to thirteen, had twenty seven shot grating actions compared

688
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: only nineteen for top them, and had more box entry,

689
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 2: So it wasn't just this resounding dominant performance from Tottenham.

690
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 2: And I still think that, you know, they're trying to

691
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: learn to play under Antonio Conte system and this is

692
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: honestly not a great spot for him. Because on Thursday

693
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 2: they have traveled to Slovenia to play Murra in the

694
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 2: Europa Conference League, and since they've been so bad this season,

695
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 2: they actually have to take that match seriously and play

696
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 2: all their starters because they're in danger of not even

697
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 2: making it to the round of sixteen. So, you know,

698
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 2: Burnley hasn't been able to do anything from open play

699
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: offensively this season. They're still but they're seventh in big

700
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 2: scoring chances and first and crosses completed into the eighteen

701
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 2: yard box. They've obviously, you know, created a ton of

702
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: chances off of corners and set pieces. Tottenham, you know,

703
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: has been decent against set pieces this season. You know

704
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: zo point one x cheaper set piece, but they have

705
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 2: allowed three goals off of corners. Burnley is top three

706
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 2: in aerial duels one while Tottam's bottom half of the

707
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 2: table in that same category. Like you mentioned, Burnley's defense,

708
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 2: it's been terrible. There's no denying that they looked horrible

709
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 2: against Crystal Palace on the weekend. But Tottenham's offense, even

710
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: though they have one of the best strikers in the league,

711
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: there's still sixteenth in non penalty expected goals per match

712
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: nineteenth and shots for ninety fifteenth in box entries. Harry

713
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: Kane once again didn't score on Sunday. Now that's one

714
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: goal in eleven appearances in a point twenty seven xtgal

715
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 2: per ninety minute scoring rate toat them. Also twelfth in

716
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 2: ball recoveries and Burnley's ball recovers allowed and Burnley's fourth

717
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: in ball recoveries. So I think the Clarits will be

718
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: able to win the ball in the air, win the

719
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 2: ball in the midfield a little bit here. Toddam's just

720
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 2: overpriced and they're going to be overpriced with content and

721
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: charge for a while until they start playing his system.

722
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: Very well and he gets the players that he wants in. Also,

723
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 2: Christian Romero looks like he's going to be out for

724
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: this one. That's another Spurs defender that is big, especially

725
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 2: in a matchup like this against a physical team like Burnley.

726
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: I only have Tottenham projected at plus one forty, so

727
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: I love Burnley plus half a goal at minus one

728
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 2: o five.

729
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: The final Premier League match on the docket for US Brentford.

730
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: The beats plus one thirty five home favorites against Everton

731
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: plus two to twenty five. The draw is plus two

732
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: to thirty five. It's been a really depressing couple of

733
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: weeks to be an Everdon fan if they haven't won

734
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: a match in a very long time, and I don't

735
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: really think it's going to happen against Brentford on the road,

736
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: a team that is all energy and Everarden is the

737
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: exact opposite of that. So I like Brentford here plus

738
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: one thirty five betting against my tofees, But I mean

739
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: this is I think this is a pretty good number

740
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: to go against a team that is just kind of

741
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: circling the dream with a ton of injury issues. Tomari

742
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: Gray is probably out now too. You're going to be

743
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: seeing perhaps Solomon Rondon back atop to lead the line

744
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: because Dominic cover Lewin's still out. Jerremina has not played

745
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: since their draw against Manchester United, which was a high

746
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: point for this everdence season, and we probably overestimated that

747
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: given what United's done since. So buzz time for the Bees, Anthony,

748
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: What about you?

749
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 4: I circled the spot on the calendar a few weeks

750
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 4: back during the international break when I was kind of

751
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 4: looking through some situational spots and things. I was going

752
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 4: to be looking to absolutely hammer and look Brentford at home.

753
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 4: Here a team like you mentioned, who is number one

754
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 4: in the league in ball recoveries against an attack in

755
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 4: Everton and a team in Everton, and who has been

756
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 4: very vulnerable on the ball who has succumbed to a

757
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 4: lot of ball pressure throughout this season. Who is down

758
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 4: Rs Charleston, Mason, Holgate, Decore Calvert, Lewin, Mina, Tom Davies,

759
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 4: Andre Gomez and Jamari Grant all out. They are absolutely

760
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 4: decimated with injuries and they do not have the squad depth.

761
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 4: They're going to be starting a lot of B level players,

762
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 4: a lot of guys who are not Premier League caliber

763
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 4: players on Sunday morning, and look, Brentford's at home and

764
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 4: we've touted this defensive aggression and how it was coming,

765
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 4: and it has come. But they're still underrated generally as

766
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 4: a team. As a whole. They're in the top six

767
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 4: and expected goal difference, and they've played enough games now

768
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 4: where you can't just excuse certain things about what they're doing.

769
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 4: You have to credit Thomas Frank for the job he's done,

770
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 4: and you have to credit Brentford, who at home here

771
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 4: has some injury concerns. I'm a little worried they may

772
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 4: concede here, but I think they're going to absolutely roll.

773
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be an inspired first half

774
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 4: and I think they're going to get a comfortable lead

775
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 4: and cruise to victory. It is my favorite player of

776
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 4: the weekend plus one thirty on the money line.

777
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: BJ, you're also playing this one, but in a different way.

778
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like over two and a half goals of

779
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: plus one twenty. Anthony obviously mentioned all of the injuries.

780
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 2: There's obviously a lot of injuries in the attack for Everton,

781
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 2: but the I think the injuries in the defense are

782
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 2: a lot worse off for a team that is eleventh

783
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 2: and non penalty expected goals allowed in nineteenth in big

784
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 2: scoring chances allowed, and we've talked about it a lot.

785
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: Brentford's offense is basically built on creating those big scoring chances.

786
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 2: They already have seventeen so far of this season, which

787
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 2: is sixth in the Premier League. You know, Everton's offense,

788
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: obviously they're gonna be without Charliston, but you know, without

789
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: Dominique Calvert Lewin, they're still averaging you know, one point

790
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 2: three five expected goals per match, they're still third and

791
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 2: crosses completed in the eighteen yard box and Brentford's defense

792
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 2: is dead last and crosses allowed into their owly teen

793
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 2: yard box. So I do think Everton, you know, similar

794
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 2: to the performance they had against Wolves on that Monday

795
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 2: night where they were kind of decimated upfront with injuries,

796
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 2: but Wolves went up early, so then you know Everton

797
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 2: had to come out of their four to four to

798
00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 2: two and actually play an open game. I think we'll

799
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: see something similar to that if Brentford goes up early.

800
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 2: I have two point five to five goals projected for

801
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: this one, so at over two and a half goals

802
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty I do like that price, and.

803
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: That wraps up the Premier League portion of our program.

804
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Germany the Bundesliga. We'll go each

805
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 1: give out our favorite bet in the German top flight.

806
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 1: I like Mines plus one forty against Stuttgart. This is

807
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: a Friday two thirty pm kickoff, a team that we

808
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 1: bet on quite a bit on the show. Mines a

809
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 1: great great defense, especially in a league where defense is optional.

810
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 1: Stute Gart, on the other hand, not a great defense,

811
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: and I think Mines' offense we'll be able to score

812
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: and hopefully hold a lead on the road as a

813
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: plus one forty favorite BJ. What is your favorite bet

814
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,240
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga this weekend.

815
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 2: I'm going Bocum Freiburg over two and a half goals. Bocum,

816
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 2: newly promoted team, has not been good defensively this season,

817
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 2: the alowing one point nine to two expect goals for match.

818
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 2: They're eleventh and shots per ninety fifteenth in big score

819
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 2: and chances allowed in fifteenth in box entries allowed. Freiberg,

820
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 2: on the other hand, has had a resurgence season. They're

821
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: currently sitting in third place. I know they just lost

822
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 2: to nothing to Frankfurt this past weekend, but they're still

823
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 2: averaging one point five to five expected goals per match,

824
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 2: which is improvement from last season when they averaged one

825
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 2: point three to two. The thing about Freiberg is they've

826
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 2: had the same manager for over a decade, which is

827
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 2: really rare, especially for a mid table side in one

828
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 2: of these top five leagues. They have a three fourth

829
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: three system that they've played forever, with a front three

830
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 2: that's been there for a long time, but when they

831
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 2: play at a three four three this season it's been

832
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: really high events. They're averaging one point five to seven

833
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety minutes and allowing one point sixty

834
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: nine XG per ninety minutes, So you know, I think

835
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 2: this is going to be a situation where they're going

836
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 2: to be able to get at Bochum's defense, but it

837
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 2: is going to be pretty open. You know, Bochum hasn't

838
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 2: been very good offensively their thirteenth and non penalty expected goals,

839
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 2: but Freiberg is twelfth in shots allowed per ninety they're

840
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:48,919
Speaker 2: fourteenth in box entries allowed, and they're allowing one point

841
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: sixty six expected goals per match away from home this season,

842
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 2: So I have won two point nine to four goals

843
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: projected for this one, so I like over two and

844
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 2: a half goals at minus one ten.

845
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: Anthony your favorite bet in the.

846
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 4: Bundest Russia Moching Gladbach on the money line plus one

847
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 4: thirty five. It's time to back the back, ladies and gentlemen.

848
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 4: We had a terrible start. Full disclosure, I have a

849
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 4: Glodbock fund. We had a terrible start to the campaign

850
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 4: under Addie Hooter. We were really struggling early, got pummeled

851
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 4: by Leverkusen, got beat by Union Berlin. It was a

852
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 4: very sluggish start. They were in the bottom half of

853
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 4: the table early on, but they've made some changes, notably

854
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 4: Cardio Kone has been a revelation in the middle of

855
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 4: the park. He's been excellent winning the ball, passing forward.

856
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 4: Florian Neuhaus is back in the side. Dennis Zakaria is

857
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 4: healthy and looking like Dennis Zacharia, who had attention from

858
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 4: a lot of the biggest clubs in Europe prior to

859
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 4: his ACL injury that left him out for a year.

860
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: And the return of braille Enblow has livened up the

861
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 4: attack as well as Jonas Hoffman. God Back had a

862
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 4: lot of guys, a lot of guys playing the Euros,

863
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 4: be it for Austria or Switzerland, had a couple of

864
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 4: guys in the Germany team. All those teams made the

865
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 4: knockout stage and had at least one knockout game, so

866
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 4: they were they were running deep into July playing games,

867
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 4: and so they had a slow start to the season,

868
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:04,879
Speaker 4: similar to a bunch of teams who have had guys

869
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 4: who played in the Euros. But they are looking like

870
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,319
Speaker 4: one of the four best teams in Germany right now

871
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 4: attack wise second in shots for ninety third and xtre

872
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 4: per ninety third in box entries going forward, and the

873
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 4: defense has been the biggest improvement the second half of

874
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 4: the season so far, fourth best in XG per ninety allowed,

875
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 4: fewest crosses allowed into the penalty area, which is huge

876
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 4: against Kohn, who may not have Anthony Madest and is

877
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 4: very reliant on crosses into midest to create a lot

878
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 4: of chances. Glodbox also plus five fifty to finish in

879
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 4: the top four. That's a crazy number right now based

880
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 4: on where they're in the standings, only three points out

881
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 4: of fourth and better than Leverkusen, playing better than Freiberg

882
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 4: playing better than Hoffenheim. They have the second best XG

883
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 4: difference in the Bundesliga. With Holland out, there's gonna be

884
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 4: a chance to make up some ground on the top

885
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 4: four and get in there. I think it's wide open

886
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 4: and plus five fifty is also worth a play. I

887
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 4: fired on it yesterday.

888
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: Moving on to Italy Syria, BJ.

889
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I likeden Essa minus one fifteen at home against

890
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: General Denesse is underperforming their actual results, which is the

891
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 2: same thing that happened last season. They're currently sitting in

892
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: fifteenth place with a negative point one non penalty expected

893
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 2: gol differential, which is actually tenth in Syria, and they've

894
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: had to play a gauntlet of a schedule so far

895
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 2: this season that has included Juventus, Roma, Napoli, Inter and Atalanta.

896
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 2: Even through all of that twelve matches, for them to

897
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: be sitting basically at an even non penalty expected gold

898
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 2: eventual is quite impressive. In their five matches against teams

899
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 2: in the bottom half of the table, Udinesse is three

900
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 2: one one, averaging one point nine three expected goals per

901
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 2: match and only allowing one point one seven. They're facing

902
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,479
Speaker 2: a Genowa side that's currently sitting in the relegation zone.

903
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 2: Relegation zone, and they deserve to be there with how

904
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 2: bad their offense has been this season. They're only averaging

905
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 2: point nine to three non penalty expectacles per match, which

906
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 2: is ranked eighteenth in big scoring chances fifteenth shots ninety

907
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: in eighteenth in box centuries also Genowa nineteenth and pressure

908
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 2: success rate allowed and Udinesse pressures at the fourth highest

909
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 2: rate in Syria. And Genoa has a new manager. Do

910
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 2: you guys know who it is? Noep if we saw

911
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 2: him at the Euros. It's Andrea chef Chenko Chenko, Yeah,

912
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: is managing Geno on now. But you know, so you

913
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: make it a little bit of a new manager re bounce.

914
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: But it also looks like jeno Os could be without

915
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 2: their star striker Lettea Destro. I have Unnesse projected at

916
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five, so I think there's some value

917
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 2: on them at minus one fifteen at home we grab

918
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 2: all three points.

919
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 1: Anthony, Yeah, this is.

920
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 4: The pain train under in Syria. Two teams who are

921
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 4: underperforming and playing just wide open games with a ton

922
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 4: of chances being created at both ends, but still both

923
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 4: have regression coming at both ends. We look at sam

924
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 4: Doria for example, that this season sam Doria pretty mediocre

925
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 4: defensively eighteenth in XG allowed, sixteenth and big scoring chances allowed.

926
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 4: But that being said, they've created thirteen expected goals and

927
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 4: allowed twenty. They've actually Conte's about thirty three ish goals expected.

928
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 4: They've actually had in their games this year forty two goals.

929
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 4: And when we look at Verona, same thing. Verona's offense

930
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 4: has been carried by the sun of Diego Simione, who

931
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 4: has been on an unreal finishing run that will not

932
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 4: be sustained or continued. Verona's a bit of a luck

933
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 4: box going forward. They stole another win this week on Monday.

934
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 4: They're on the road now. Verona this season seventeen expected goals,

935
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 4: twenty seven goals and then defensively eighteen expected allowed and

936
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 4: I had twenty two allowed. So they're running coal at

937
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 4: both ends of the pitch here. Neither offense is particularly

938
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 4: good to exploit the weaknesses that the opposing defenses have.

939
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 4: I think there's going to be a sleepy game. Under

940
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 4: two and a half is even money. That's where I'm

941
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 4: going here, my projection two point three six, and.

942
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 1: Now we will travel to Spain. Our favorite bets in

943
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: La Liga. I like Savilla. In the game of the weekend,

944
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 1: they're taking on Real Madrid top of the table clash here.

945
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 1: I like to be on the money line plus three sixty.

946
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 1: This is Sunday three pm kickoff. Obviously, want to keep

947
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: an eye on the Champions League matches, just to make

948
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: sure that the lineups don't get decimated. But this is

949
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 1: an elite defensive side. First, Savilla. Real Madrid's defense is mediocre.

950
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously we know what they can do going forward,

951
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 1: but I think Sevilla can handle this offense, and with

952
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: this number, I think it's pretty hard to look away.

953
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: So give me Sevilla and BJ you're joining me.

954
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: Right, yep? This is a key Yeah, I love Sevia

955
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 2: plus half of all. This is the key point about

956
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 2: this one is Real Madrid price points. They're currently at

957
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 2: minus one forty five, and I do think they're overvalued

958
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 2: against a Sevilla team that honestly played them very well

959
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 2: last year. They lost the home leg one zero, but

960
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 2: drew Real Madrid to two in the other leg, and

961
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,720
Speaker 2: the expected goals battle was pretty even over those two legs. Savia,

962
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 2: like you mentioned elite defensive team through thirteen matches, only

963
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: allowing point seven to three non penalty expected goals for match.

964
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 2: They're second and shots per ninety allowed and second in

965
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed. Real Madrid obviously they're due for

966
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 2: some offensive regression. They're still the number one, you know,

967
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 2: offensive team in Spain by pretty much every single metric

968
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: that we look at, but this is not a great

969
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 2: spot for them, especially given the fact, like you mentioned,

970
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 2: they haven't been good defensively, allowing one point one to

971
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 2: six expected goals match, which is fourteenth in a low

972
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 2: scoring league like La Liga. They're also twelfth in shots

973
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 2: of Berneti loud and twelfth in big scoring chances allowed.

974
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: Real Madrid has to travel to Tirspol on Wednesday to

975
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 2: play a Champions League against FC Sheriff. Sevilla gets to

976
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 2: play on Tuesday at home, so it's a lot of

977
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 2: travel for Real Madrid, having traveled to Moldova and back.

978
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,720
Speaker 2: I only have Real Madrid projected at plus one eleven,

979
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: so I agree with you, Michael. I do think there's

980
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 2: some value on Sevia at plus half a goal at

981
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 2: plus one twenty Anthony, yeah, I have to.

982
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 4: Give credit to case van Hemmon on Twitter, a great

983
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 4: football analytics guy. He tweeted out a chart today the

984
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 4: two biggest x G overperformers in all of Europe Venetius

985
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 4: Junior Karen Benzema and look, they're both good players, but

986
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 4: they're not going to sustain in the current finishing level

987
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 4: they have been at recently. I will also be on Sevia,

988
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 4: but my player of the weekend Javi's Barcelona draw no

989
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 4: bet minus one ten at villar Real. Just an absurd

990
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 4: overreaction to recent form because of Barcelona's dip and how

991
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 4: they've been very unimpressive. My number minus one twenty two

992
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 4: finally built out some La Liga projections. BJ You'll be

993
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,879
Speaker 4: very proud of me, but minus one twenty two there,

994
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 4: Barca's a much better team when you look at XG difference.

995
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 4: I know they have problems out of possession, but they're

996
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 4: going to dominate the possession here. They're going to be

997
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 4: able to pen Villa Reale in and as good as

998
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 4: dan Zuma has been going forward for the O Submarine,

999
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 4: they have a difficult Champions League GA which is going

1000
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 4: on right now. Whereas I think Barcelona is going to

1001
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 4: be able to coast here against Benfica, and so I

1002
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 4: think it's a good time to buy low on Barcelona.

1003
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 4: Finally think they break out here and get a big

1004
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 4: win on the road, the first significant win of the

1005
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 4: Chobby Era league.

1006
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 1: BJ's favorite time of the show. He usually gives us

1007
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 1: his favorite play in the French top flight. This week though,

1008
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: Anthony is joining the party, so we'll let Anthony start

1009
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 1: us off.

1010
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, sant Etien plus one and a half goals at

1011
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,800
Speaker 4: the bottom. They're near the bottom in a relegation battle,

1012
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 4: but they're not really the talent or the expected numbers

1013
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 4: of a team you'd expect to be in the relegation battle.

1014
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 4: They can cause defensive issues for PSG, disrupting their patterns

1015
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 4: of play and look, PSG is a terrible, terrible and

1016
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 4: build up when you watch their games, as I watched

1017
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 4: the Nats game they played last weekend, you know the

1018
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 4: players getting way too far apart. They rely on individuals

1019
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 4: beating other individuals. There's no coherent system and Potino might

1020
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 4: be out the door. There's rumors that he's the top man,

1021
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 4: the top target for Manchester United. The dressing room has

1022
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 4: had issues for a while now. A lot of drama

1023
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 4: going on at PSG. I do not want to be

1024
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 4: a part of them, and I understand. I think they're

1025
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 4: going to get their breaks beaten off by City on Wednesday.

1026
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 4: You'd say, oh, it's a bounce back spot. But if

1027
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 4: with all the turmoil going on with Pochacino's job in doubt,

1028
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 4: his future in doubt, him looking to get out of

1029
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 4: the club, I'm not sure there's going to be a

1030
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 4: response for PSG at the weekend, and so I think

1031
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:58,720
Speaker 4: sit into the end plus one and a half goals,

1032
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 4: I think they'll be able to keep this close, maybe

1033
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 4: steal a result, if not lose by one. But I

1034
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 4: think PSG overvalued yet again.

1035
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:05,959
Speaker 1: BJ.

1036
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, PSG is eleven point lead in league GUNS, so

1037
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 2: you wouldn't be surprised if they just don't take that

1038
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: match seriously at all. But I love one of my

1039
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 2: favorite teams in Europe Lens minus one fifteen against Angers,

1040
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 2: lens their wagon. Like I know, they just lost four

1041
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:23,879
Speaker 2: nothing to Saude Bresois on the weekend, but that's maybe

1042
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 2: one of the funniest box scores you'll ever look at.

1043
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,399
Speaker 2: Staud de Bressois had four goals off of point four

1044
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 2: to seven expected goals and lost the XG battle point

1045
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 2: nine to six. To one point seven to two, so

1046
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 2: completely fluky loss for Lens. This season, they have the

1047
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 2: second best non penalty expected goal to deferential in France

1048
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: at eleven point two to three, behind only PSG, and

1049
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: that's because they're playing at an elite level at both

1050
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 2: ends of the pitch. Their third and non penalty expected

1051
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 2: goals four, averaging one point nine one per match. They

1052
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: ranked second in shots per ninety and second in big

1053
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 2: scoring chances. Now, this Angers team, if they're playing, is

1054
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 2: very good defensively. Their fifth in non penalty expected goles allowed,

1055
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 2: second in shots per ninety and second in big scoring chances,

1056
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 2: but they've provided nothing going forward, especially an open play.

1057
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: Only eleven point five to seven expect a goal from

1058
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 2: open play in fourteen matches. They're also nineteenth and shots

1059
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 2: for ninety, seventeenth in box entries and seventeenth in crosses

1060
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 2: completed in the eighteen yard box, while Lens is fourth

1061
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 2: in non penalty expectable is allowed, first in big scoring

1062
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: chances loud, third in box entry is loud, and first

1063
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 2: in crosses completed into their own eighteen yard box. So

1064
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 2: I really don't know how Angers is going to create

1065
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 2: anything of substance offensively. I have Lens projected at minus

1066
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: one thirty eight, so I think there's some value on

1067
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 2: them at minus one fifteen at home.

1068
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 1: All right, we'll move on to our favorite part of

1069
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 1: the program. This is where I warn you these bets

1070
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: are not for the faint of heart. Our three leg

1071
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay from across all of Europe's top divisions.

1072
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 1: I like Sevilla plus three sixty taking on Real Madrid

1073
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 1: on Sunday at three pm. The Sevilla team is really,

1074
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 1: really good. Their defense is terrific, so I do think

1075
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 1: that they will be able to handle Madrid's star studded offense.

1076
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 1: So give me some Vie plus three sixty to kick

1077
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:05,399
Speaker 1: this parlay off. Anthony, where are you taking us? Yeah?

1078
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 4: My projections make this game damn near A pick empley

1079
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 4: at home against Fiorentina plus two ten. Let me read

1080
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 4: off Fiorantina's away matches this season. I know BJ's shit

1081
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 4: is nodding his head in agreement because he's been following

1082
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 4: Fiorentina around the country.

1083
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 2: Well.

1084
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 4: Fredrenzi three to one loss to Roma dominated on XG

1085
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 4: two to one win against Atalanta. Both goals were penalties

1086
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 4: two to one win against Genoa with a penalty included

1087
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 4: when the game was even on expected goals. They had

1088
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 4: a one nil win against Udinessei, which was quite lucky.

1089
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:37,479
Speaker 4: They lost away at Vanezia one nil. They lost away

1090
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 4: at Lazio one nil. They lost away at Events one nil.

1091
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 4: Did not play well in any of those matches, failed

1092
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 4: to create over zero point six expected goals in any

1093
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 4: of those matches. Fiorentina's attack should be better than it is,

1094
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 4: so I think they might be improving eventually. The underlying

1095
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 4: numbers are not that bad, but overall they're not creating

1096
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:56,760
Speaker 4: a lot of chances, not getting a lot of shots.

1097
00:49:57,040 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 4: Dusan Vlohovich apparently once out, I want no part of

1098
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 4: Fjortina and so Emplely at home good cell high spot.

1099
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 4: Fiorantina had a big win against Milan at home, again

1100
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,320
Speaker 4: over performing their expected goals. So I'm going to be

1101
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 4: on Emply plus two ten Bjay bring it home.

1102
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, employee is just music to my ears, but I'll

1103
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 2: go Burnley plus two seventy at home against Tottenham. Not

1104
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 2: a great spot for Tottenham coming off of a Europa

1105
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 2: Conference League match that they have to take seriously in

1106
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 2: Slovenia on Thursday. Their two to one win over Leads

1107
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 2: was not impressive this past weekend. You know, Leeds pretty

1108
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 2: much won the box score and that one. Burnley offensively

1109
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 2: hasn't really been creating much from open play, but they're

1110
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 2: very good off of corners, They're very good office set pieces.

1111
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,360
Speaker 2: They're still ninth or seventh in the Premier League and

1112
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 2: big scoring chances. Tottenham pretty average against set pieces. Burnley

1113
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 2: top three obviously again in aerial duels, while Tottenham is

1114
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 2: bottom half of the table in that. Tottenham offensively, you

1115
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,760
Speaker 2: know they are going to improve, but as the stands today,

1116
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 2: they're still not a very good offensive team. Sixteenth to

1117
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,280
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals for match nineteenth and shots per ninety.

1118
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 2: Harry Kane still only has one goal and eleven appearances,

1119
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 2: and Tottenham is twelve in ball recovers a loud and

1120
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 2: while Burnley is sports so I do think Burnley will

1121
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 2: be able to win the ball in the air and

1122
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 2: win the ball in the middle of the pitch and

1123
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:14,800
Speaker 2: pull off an upset at turf More to potentially hopefully

1124
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 2: save Sean Ditsche for another season at plus two seventy

1125
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:19,959
Speaker 2: if you wrap all.

1126
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 1: Three of those teams together, Burnley, Empoli and Sevilla. You're

1127
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 1: looking at a fifty two to one ticket. Maybe it'll win,

1128
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 1: maybe it won't, likely won't. All right, let's wrap this

1129
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 1: show up with our favorite Premier League bets for the

1130
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving weekend. I will start and I will go back

1131
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 1: to the well Crystal Palace plus one twenty, tacking on

1132
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 1: Stephen Girard's Aston Villa. I think that this number could

1133
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 1: tick up because people will want to bet aston Villa

1134
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 1: after Gerard got the win over Brighton in his debut

1135
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: with the club. So you might see a narrative boost

1136
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 1: on the price for Crystal Palace as we get closer

1137
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 1: to kickoff this weekend. This Palace team third best expectacles

1138
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 1: against the Premier League, fifth best expected goal differential per ninety.

1139
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 1: They are playing like a top six club and I

1140
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: don't think they're priced like a top six club at home.

1141
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 1: So give me Crystal Palace plus one twenty. Beja, what's

1142
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: your favorite EPO bet this weekend?

1143
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 2: Yeah? I love Wolves plus one point fifteen on the

1144
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: road at Norwich. It's crazy that we're saying it, but

1145
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 2: this is a cell high spot for Norwich. You have

1146
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: won two in a row, but have lost the expected

1147
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 2: goals battle of combined three point four to one point

1148
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 2: nine against Southampton and Brentford. This is still one of

1149
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 2: the worst defensive teams in the Premier League. They're bottom

1150
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 2: three and pretty much every single defensive metric that we

1151
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: look at, they're allowing one point seven to eight expected

1152
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 2: goals per match. And this is a Wolves team that

1153
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 2: can just shred you in transition that is also really

1154
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 2: good versus pressure Norwich Offensively, they're dead last in non

1155
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:48,240
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals, four shots per ninety, big scoring chances

1156
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 2: and a lot of other metrics. Dean Smith, obviously, you know,

1157
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 2: is the new manager. There's a little bit of a

1158
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,399
Speaker 2: new manager bump. But this Wolves defense, you know, they're

1159
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 2: built on not allowing any big scoring chances. They're second

1160
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 2: in the Premier League in that category, they're still top

1161
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,360
Speaker 2: ten and non penalty expected goals. I have Wolves protected

1162
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 2: at minus one o nine. I think this price is

1163
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: a little crazy. I think Wolves should definitely not be

1164
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 2: plus money on the road against one of the worst

1165
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 2: teams in the Premier League. So give me Bruno Laje's

1166
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 2: men at plus one fifteen to grab all three points at.

1167
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 1: Antity wrap up this show, please yeah.

1168
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 4: Brentford at home plus one thirty against Everton. I already

1169
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 4: read off the Everton injury list, but I'm going to

1170
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 4: do it again. Calvert Lewin is out, Holgate, decore R, Charleston, Mina, Davies,

1171
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 4: Gomez Gray, almost half of their typical starting eleven and

1172
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 4: some of the reserves who would typically back up some

1173
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 4: of those starting guys are out. Brentford number one in

1174
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 4: the Premier League in ball recoveries against an Everton team

1175
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 4: that has struggled against teams that apply pressure against them.

1176
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 4: We saw that a couple of weeks ago against Wolves

1177
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 4: when Wolves kind of played them off the park the

1178
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 4: first forty five minutes. I'm expecting Brentford to come out

1179
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 4: with an inspired effort here at home after a couple

1180
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:56,759
Speaker 4: of disappointing performances in a row. The defensive regression still

1181
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,919
Speaker 4: concerns me for Brentford, but I think attacking wise, Tony

1182
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 4: and Blame, we're going to have their way with this

1183
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 4: backup Everagon defense and they're going to roll here, score

1184
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 4: multiple goals and cruise to victory at home, and that.

1185
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,759
Speaker 1: Will do it for this week's episode of Wonder Goal

1186
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 1: for Anthony Dbundo and vij Countingham. I'm Michael Leebop. We

1187
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 1: will see you next week as we start to see

1188
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: some midweek Premier League matches. Boy is that exciting and

1189
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: then we get into the festive pixtures once again. Please review,

1190
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 1: rate and subscribe. But if you do leave us a

1191
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,760
Speaker 1: rating on Apple Podcasts, you put in your Twitter handle

1192
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 1: and you automatically bantered into a contest to win a

1193
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 1: soccer jersey of your choice. That contest will wrap up

1194
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 1: at the end of the month, so be sure to

1195
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 1: do it before it's too late. Good luck on your best,

1196
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen.