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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go there throwing in Joe spect

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Speaker 1: We're sitting up to catch touch till we see most

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Speaker 1: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 4: ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: You want to back, and we are underway. Welcome to

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast, presented by Fan Duel. Today's episode

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Speaker 3: week five NFL recap and our Monday Night football preview

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Speaker 3: Raiders cheaps to wrap up week five, we will get

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Speaker 3: to that as well as the hot read maybe one,

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Speaker 3: maybe two hot reads for week six. Just after midnight

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Speaker 3: here on the East Coast, Sunday Night football has wrapped

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Speaker 3: between the Ravens and the so full fourteen games to

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Speaker 3: get to. I'm your host, Brendan glass Sheen with Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson and Joe Gallant. We are all of Action Network

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Speaker 3: really appreciate all of you tuning in. As a reminder

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Speaker 3: before we get into the picks, folks, you can follow

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Speaker 3: along on the Action app. Are two accounts that we

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Speaker 3: do our Best Bets episodes every Thursday. They get pushed

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Speaker 3: out on Friday. We do those records on Thursday, but

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Speaker 3: you can follow our two accounts, Sunday six Pack and

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Speaker 3: Action Network NFL Picks, so be sure to check those out.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the recap of Sunday. We'll start Sunday

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Speaker 3: Night Football overall, Folks, like these games are like, eh,

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Speaker 3: there's some good stuff and there was like nothing like

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Speaker 3: that really jumped off the page though, nothing that came

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Speaker 3: out of the oven feeling really spicy and delicious. But hey,

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Speaker 3: justin Tucker game winning field goal at the end, what

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Speaker 3: else is new with the Ravens. They get a bounce

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Speaker 3: back win after blowing it to Buffalo. We'll start with

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Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson here. So nineteen seventeen Bengals do cover, getting

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Speaker 3: the three points, So the Bengals cover. They're five and

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Speaker 3: oh to the under the Bengals, so they play in

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Speaker 3: these low scoring rock fights. Brandon Anderson like their defense.

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Speaker 3: It didn't look promising early the way Lamar was finding

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Speaker 3: Mark Andrews, but ultimately the Bengals delivering. John Harbaugh kicked

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Speaker 3: a field goal for crying out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So last week to recap, John Harbaugh goes forward on

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Speaker 5: fourth down, doesn't get it, and they lose the game,

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Speaker 5: right decision, wrong outcome. This week he kicks it on

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Speaker 5: fourth down and it looked like it was going to

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Speaker 5: cost them the game, but then it ended up leaving

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Speaker 5: enough time that Tucker got the field goal. So to recap,

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Speaker 5: wrong fourth down serion, right fourth down decision last week,

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Speaker 5: wrong result, wrong decision this week, right result. So set

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Speaker 5: and analytics back for years. This is you know, Harbaugh

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Speaker 5: knows what he knows. The fourth down two is complicated

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Speaker 5: that earlier. I think first drive of the second half,

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Speaker 5: the Ravens line up on fourth down, get the quick snap,

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Speaker 5: and you think you're just going to try to get

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Speaker 5: a quick one, and we got Wallace streaking down the

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Speaker 5: sideline and Lamar Jackson has the easiest touchdown.

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Speaker 4: Throw of his entire career and just overthrows it.

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Speaker 5: I think next gen stats had sixty five percent likely

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Speaker 5: completion rate, which you know on a bomb, we're talking

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Speaker 5: like normally twenty five thirty percent sort of thing. So

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Speaker 5: that was a layup and would obviously have totally changed

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Speaker 5: the game. You wonder if they're starting to second guests

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Speaker 5: themselves on these fourth downs. You know, you went for

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Speaker 5: the one last game, you didn't get it. You went

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Speaker 5: for that long one you have the play, you didn't

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Speaker 5: get it, So we'll see what that looks like going forward.

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Speaker 5: Ravens nearly blew their third ten point home lead of

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Speaker 5: the season. Three home games, three ten point leads, nearly

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Speaker 5: three losses, So we'll see, we'll see. I'm not sure

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Speaker 5: that you know, Baltimore got the win, but I'm not

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Speaker 5: sure they're feeling really great about the process right now.

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Speaker 3: Chill. What are the things you brought up in one

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Speaker 3: of our recent recap episodes, is you know, Baltimore, should

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Speaker 3: we really consider this team to be a top favorite

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Speaker 3: to come out of the AFC? And you saw some

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Speaker 3: signs of that again in the second half. You're like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I see the flash, but the finishing capability is shaky,

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Speaker 3: isn't it?

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Speaker 2: Absolutely?

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Speaker 1: And you're seeing right now at Vanduel their Super Bowl odds,

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Speaker 1: it was about twelve to one before the game bounced

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Speaker 1: up to about fourteen to one. I think that's still

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Speaker 1: a fair price. But I am a little bit worried

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Speaker 1: about that, especially the decision making of Harbaugh, because I mean,

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Speaker 1: when you have Justin Tucker, that is the insurance policy

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Speaker 1: of where instead of banning kickers, you have the kicker

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Speaker 1: like he is the Golden Boots, So you should try

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Speaker 1: to take advantage of that as much as you can,

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Speaker 1: because that's more efficient than a lot of these fourth

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Speaker 1: down plays that they're going with. And I think the

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Speaker 1: Bengals I think they just really missed t Higgins today.

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Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd can not get any separation. Jamar Chase had

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Speaker 1: I believe, eight targets today, but really they had to

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Speaker 1: rely a lot on Hayden Hurst.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Higgins.

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Speaker 2: He killed them last year. Guys, like nineteen catches in

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Speaker 2: both games. He caught two touchdowns the last time they

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Speaker 2: played each other. But there is a positive thing to

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Speaker 2: take away from this, guys. Burrow through an interception that

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Speaker 2: was one of my bets for this game. That's an

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Speaker 2: interception now in each of his career games in Baltimore,

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Speaker 2: three straight, and a nice little trend that I'm kind

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Speaker 2: of still playing. I'm going to be playing it as

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Speaker 2: well for tomorrow with Derek Carr. Is Road quarterbacks have

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Speaker 2: now thrown an interception in twelve of fifteen primetime games.

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Speaker 2: And I'm seeing Derek carr at minus one oh five.

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Speaker 2: It's looking pretty juicy. I'll talk a little bit more

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Speaker 2: about that a little bit later.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully Joe Burrow catches up with Matt Stafford, because if

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Speaker 3: I recall, that was one of the early takeaways for

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Speaker 3: the season, Like, okay, Joe, like you got to catch

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Speaker 3: up with Matt here based on the preseason reporting on

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow in the injury that kind of set him

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Speaker 3: back a bit. But yes, the Ravens deliver on Sunday Night.

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Speaker 3: Some other games from the day. How about the Bears

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Speaker 3: covering by the hook seven and a half? If he

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Speaker 3: got it, they cover, but the Vikings to win twenty

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Speaker 3: nine twenty two, So have you got the seven and

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Speaker 3: a half Bears deliver? Kirk Cousins Daylight just a different

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Speaker 3: human being, but somehow just likes to make it difficult.

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Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson, Yeah, that was gonna be interesting.

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Speaker 5: This is now five of six Bears Vikings games that

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Speaker 5: have come down to one score.

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Speaker 4: And it shouldn't have. It really shouldn't.

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Speaker 5: Have the Vikings go up twenty one to three, Kirk,

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Speaker 5: I think is seventeen of seventeen to start the game.

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Speaker 4: And really, if you look at the stats at the game, record.

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Speaker 3: A Vikings record seventeenth straight completely.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, do you like that.

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Speaker 3: Proud of him for doing that.

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Speaker 4: You have to be excited about it.

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Speaker 5: You look at the stats here, seventy four or forty

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Speaker 5: seven plays for the Vikings. They practically doubled them in

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Speaker 5: yardage over four hundred to under three hundred. Vikings were

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Speaker 5: twelve of fifteen on third down. They're absolutely unstoppable on

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Speaker 5: third down four or four in the red zone. All

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Speaker 5: that is great, All that is domination, All that is

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Speaker 5: Wait a minute.

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Speaker 4: The Bears led in the fourth. I wonder what happened.

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Speaker 5: So I felt all right about that. I had Bear's

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Speaker 5: side on this one. On that post London trend. It

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Speaker 5: didn't really play out with the way the Vikings dominated,

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Speaker 5: but the Bears did hit their team total over as

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Speaker 5: the London trend had predicted. And again, every team that

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Speaker 5: has come off that London game without a bye week

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Speaker 5: has now been tied or trailing at some point in

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Speaker 5: the fourth quarter. That happened on both games today. So

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Speaker 5: em here Smith Marsett, Bear's receiver. He was on the

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Speaker 5: Vikings a month ago, and he had a block in

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Speaker 5: the back on a long Justin Fields touchdown that got

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Speaker 5: that called back, and then he got stripped and gave

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Speaker 5: the ball to Minnesota to secure the win.

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Speaker 4: So I don't know.

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Speaker 5: My guy might be pulling off his jersey revealing the

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Speaker 5: Vikings jersey underneath.

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Speaker 4: I think he got that win for us today.

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Speaker 3: Jill Galant, how about damn Cowboys? They do it again.

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Speaker 3: They do it again, twenty two to ten. They beat

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Speaker 3: the Rams and Brandon Anderson you can chime in after this,

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Speaker 3: but there was some plus money out, there's some value

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Speaker 3: play money. Rams to miss the playoffs, and look that

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Speaker 3: we're a long ways from that. But the Rams. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 3: I know Cooper Rush has held this thing together here,

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Speaker 3: but I can't help but take away from this game.

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Speaker 3: What's up with the Rams? Dallas wins twenty two to ten.

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Speaker 3: They cover whatever number you got, four and a half, five,

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Speaker 3: five and a half, they deliver. They win the game

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Speaker 3: outright by twelve.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean both Brandon and I had the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys to miss the playoffs before the season started a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Mine was maybe a more emotional hedge, whereas

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Speaker 1: I think Brandon was playing the numbers here. But I

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Speaker 1: think we just have to give it up again for

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Speaker 1: our Lord and savior, Cooper Rush. And again, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to really start getting into some of the content

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Speaker 1: that I've watched this week, just betting content of people

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Speaker 1: just saying that, you know, the Cowboys are fluky and

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Speaker 1: you know, just trashing them. A guy that I respect dearly,

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Speaker 1: doctor Nick Gifford. His luck rankings that he published at

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot Com had the Cowboys as the sixth overall

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Speaker 1: team in his luck rating, as in that they should

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Speaker 1: not be where they are. And we beat both teams

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Speaker 1: that were in the Super Bowl last year.

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Speaker 2: They beat the.

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Speaker 1: Rams, they beat the Bengals, and they beat a Giants

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Speaker 1: team that beat the Packers today as well.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about that in a little bit. But I

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Speaker 2: think it's just the defense.

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Speaker 1: I'm not used to seeing this as a Cowboys fan again,

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Speaker 1: twenty points allowed or they haven't allowed a team to

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Speaker 1: get up to over twenty points season high as by

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Speaker 1: the Bucks. Really, I just can't wait for next week

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Speaker 1: to watch this Cowboys Eagles game. I think that's gonna

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Speaker 1: be the game of the week for sure.

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Speaker 3: Brian Quick thought there on the Rams just in the playoffs.

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Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, chime in on both sides. I'm gonna speak

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Speaker 5: on Nick Giffin's behalf. I think the Cowboys go up

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Speaker 5: in the luck rankings this week. Dallas opened the game

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Speaker 5: with a fumble six on the third play of the

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Speaker 5: game and then a block punt. They basically got gifted

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Speaker 5: a nine to nothing lead. I literally have in my

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Speaker 5: notes fluky Dallas win. So it's not just out there

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Speaker 5: on the interwebs and deep Dallas Cowboys Reddit.

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Speaker 4: This was a fluke.

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Speaker 5: The Cowboys had two hundred and thirty nine yards. Our boy,

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Speaker 5: Cooper Rush got out produced by Cooper Cupp. Battle of

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Speaker 5: Cooper is the wrong Cooper won this one. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: Rams two and three. Now, look at the schedule coming up.

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Speaker 5: This is not a team that looks like the playoffs

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Speaker 5: right now. They go too on the road, Tampa, New Orleans,

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Speaker 5: Kansas City, Green Bay, the Chargers. Those are all road games.

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Speaker 5: They still play the Niners, they play the Raiders and

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Speaker 5: the Broncos.

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Speaker 4: Tough games. Still.

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Speaker 5: They got twice against Seattle. Those look tough. Now next

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Speaker 5: week they play the Panthers. That's a little breath of air.

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Speaker 5: It's the last breath of air this team is going

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Speaker 5: to get. I think they're in real danger of missing

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Speaker 5: the playoffs. They don't have an offense right now. They

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Speaker 5: have a Cooper Cup that's it.

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Speaker 4: So yeah.

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Speaker 5: I wrote about this in Friday Futures this week the

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Speaker 5: Rams where I believe plus one eighty two to miss

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Speaker 5: the playoffs, I have to believe that number is going

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Speaker 5: to be a little shorter after the loss like this one,

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Speaker 5: and a loss to a team that the tipebreak might

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Speaker 5: matter here when it comes down to a playoff spot

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Speaker 5: later on in the year two. So a Super Bowl champs,

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Speaker 5: they might be in a little bit of trouble here.

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Speaker 3: So a barn burner in New Orleans between the Saints

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Speaker 3: and the Seahawks. This was a This was a wild

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Speaker 3: game that in the fourth quarter, back and forth long

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Speaker 3: touchdowns between Taysom Hill as a breakaway run. Gino Smith

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Speaker 3: continues to look sharp but Brandon Anderson. The London angle

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Speaker 3: goes to Luke Swayn this week. You came up just short,

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Speaker 3: but look, Seattle hung around in this ballgame. Saints do

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Speaker 3: win though thirty nine to thirty two. A two point

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Speaker 3: conversion crucial to all of this for that cover five

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Speaker 3: and a half Saints cover win.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that two point conversion basically decided who ended up covering.

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Speaker 5: This was back and forth, and you mentioned the London angle.

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Speaker 5: We keep bringing up because actually the takeaway, the main

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Speaker 5: takeaway from the research I did was whoever played in

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Speaker 5: London the week after that, you want the other team's

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Speaker 5: team total over. The Seahawks hit their team total over.

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Speaker 5: That was the best trend. I just pushed that trend

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Speaker 5: a little further and took Seattle and sale money line.

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Speaker 5: We didn't quite get there, but Seattle also let in

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Speaker 5: the fourth quarter thirty two to thirty one. So again,

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Speaker 5: we keep bringing this up because that's seven for seven now.

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Speaker 5: And don't forget the Packers and the Giants just played

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Speaker 5: this morning as we were recording this, so they play

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Speaker 5: again next week. That's why you need to hear these trends,

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Speaker 5: because these trends are up again for both of those

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Speaker 5: teams next week. This was a fun one back and forth.

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Speaker 5: Taysom Hill, like Sean Payton, is just in a fever

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Speaker 5: dream out there somewhere. Taysom Hill has three rushing touchdowns,

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Speaker 5: a passing touchdown, dude, recovery is a fumble on special

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Speaker 5: teams like this is like nine man football North Dakota.

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Speaker 5: You're playing every position, every play. Taysom Hill game of

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Speaker 5: his life. I think the Seahawks are pretty good though.

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Speaker 5: Gino Smith was pretty good over ten yards per attempt.

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Speaker 5: Locket in dk Metcalf at almost two hundred yards and

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Speaker 5: three touchdowns. The Seahawks average eight yards of play against

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Speaker 5: the defense. We think it's pretty good. They just weren't

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Speaker 5: good in the red zone and the especially were not

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Speaker 5: going to third down one of nine on third down

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Speaker 5: like Seattle.

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Speaker 4: Here, I still feel pretty good.

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Speaker 5: The defense is rough, so I think we're looking for

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Speaker 5: Seattle overs, but Seahix did pretty well. This was a

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Speaker 5: really fun game to watch, and I think the Seattle

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Speaker 5: team is legit.

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Speaker 3: Jill watching Chargers Browns, I kept thinking who will outslop

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Speaker 3: the other at the end because these two franchises just

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Speaker 3: run into themselves so often when it comes to just

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Speaker 3: dumb crap that happens at the end of these games.

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Speaker 3: And the Chargers prevail thirty twenty eight missed field goal

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Speaker 3: Cleveland at the end to win the ballgame. But this

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Speaker 3: one too, there's bugs all over the field. There's just weird.

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Speaker 3: It just fit the It fit everything that these two

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Speaker 3: teams are about. The Chargers do cover one and a half.

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Speaker 3: That's what it closed out on the action app. That's

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Speaker 3: what I'm seeing here there are a lot of varying

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Speaker 3: numbers on this game. What was your takeaway here on

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Speaker 3: Chargers Browns?

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Speaker 1: But the Chargers were basically trying to charger again and

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Speaker 1: again and again, like Brandon Staley like actually had his

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Speaker 1: luck go this way. Usually it was the opposite way

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Speaker 1: when they shoot themselves on the foot like that going

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Speaker 1: forward on fourth down, like when you go for it

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Speaker 1: on your forty eight the one yard line. Austin Eckler

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Speaker 1: is averaging like over ten yards per Carrie. Why are

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Speaker 1: you throwing it to Mike Williams.

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying that.

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Speaker 1: Mike Williams isn't capable, but just you've been getting ten

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Speaker 1: yards per Carrie in this game and you need one

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Speaker 1: yard and you pretty much sealed the game. But they

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Speaker 1: turned the ball over and then Cade York missus the

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Speaker 1: fifty four yard But pretty much this is kind of

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Speaker 1: the game that we saw last season. That's why on

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Speaker 1: the Best Bets Pod on Friday, I did take the

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Speaker 1: over forty seven and a half. You know, they combined

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Speaker 1: for eighty nine points last year, but it was pretty

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Speaker 1: much a score best like teams, they were just both

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Speaker 1: scoring pretty much at their own base and depending on

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Speaker 1: your POV like, you know, either they couldn't stop the

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Speaker 1: run or they were both running effectively. I don't know

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Speaker 1: which way you want to lean there. You know, either

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Speaker 1: the defense was just Swiss cheese or they were just

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Speaker 1: blocking so well that they could get whatever they wanted. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: I think one of the most impressive things. And we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about this maybe a little bit more when the

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Speaker 1: Titans game comes up. But on the Touchdown Show, I

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Speaker 1: don't generally endorse parlay, but we had a super deluxe

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Speaker 1: touchdown boost for the Touchdown Show for Nick Chubb and

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Speaker 1: Derek Henry to score a touchdown Parlay at plus three

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Speaker 1: hundred boosted a plus three hundred rather and that came

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Speaker 1: in in the first half, so you could see it

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Speaker 1: right away that basically the Browns offense from a running standpoint,

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Speaker 1: they could do whatever they wanted, and it was evident today.

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Speaker 1: It's just too bad that they couldn't get that field

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Speaker 1: goal to win the game.

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Speaker 3: And Mike Williams goes bananas ten for one thirty four

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Speaker 3: without Keenan, Allen Chargers have enough offense to prevail in

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Speaker 3: this ballgame. So we're gonna get to frozen pizza games soon.

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Speaker 3: But if you're a Steelers fan, you want to throw

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Speaker 3: this pizza away fast. But Buffalo, Buffalo rolls thirty eight

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Speaker 3: to three. They covered the two touchdowns spread, our biggest

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Speaker 3: point spread of the year for any matchup. But Brandon

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Speaker 3: this was never really close and gave Davis Goes bananas too.

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Speaker 3: In this ballgame, it looks early Pittsburgh putting some pressure

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Speaker 3: on it. It reminded me. This reminded me a little bit

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Speaker 3: of Pittsburgh Kansas City in the playoffs last year. Oh,

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Speaker 3: defensive touchdown, Pittsburgh's gonna hangaround. No they're not. They're not

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Speaker 3: gonna hang around. Buffalo blew them out.

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Speaker 4: Third down.

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Speaker 3: But a third and ten running into the win way.

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Speaker 1: Down the field, Oh my goodness, this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: ninety eight.

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Speaker 3: Yards to Gabe Davis. The ninety eight yard.

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Speaker 5: Explosion Josh Allen. First half, just the first half, four touchdowns,

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Speaker 5: three hundred and forty eight yards. That was a Buffalo

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Speaker 5: record and a half. Our guy, Gabe Davis has the

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Speaker 5: ninety eight yard touchdown and then an even better touchdown

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Speaker 5: catch later in the game. Three catches one hundred and

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Speaker 5: seventy one yards. The Bills are over ten yards per

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Speaker 5: play for the entire game. Even though they basically didn't

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Speaker 5: try in the second half, they had eight separate twenty

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Speaker 5: plus yard plays.

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Speaker 4: They scored thirty eight.

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Speaker 5: With an interception in the end zone and a fumble

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Speaker 5: at the one at a missfield goal, they still scored

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Speaker 5: thirty eight. Josh Allen MVP sort of game. I know

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Speaker 5: it's just Pittsburgh, but he's averaging target over thirteen yards

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Speaker 5: and he was nearly one whole epa per play, finished

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Speaker 5: with twenty eight EPA. So just mons monster game. Allen

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Speaker 5: has to be the MVP favorite. This is why the

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Speaker 5: Bills are the super Bowl favorite still. So Pittsburgh, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: you want to throw this one away. We're Steelers loss

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Speaker 5: since nineteen eighty nine. That was fifty one nothing to

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Speaker 5: the Browns. If that helps you understand how long ago

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Speaker 5: was the Browns beat someone fifty one to nothing. So

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Speaker 5: Pittsburgh's pass defense in trouble. Tomlin, I think we're probably

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Speaker 5: going to get that first losing season finally. But Pittsburgh fans,

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Speaker 5: I thought Kenny Pick it was pretty solid, to be honest,

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Speaker 5: playing on his back foot basically the whole game. He

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Speaker 5: took a few sacks, but three hundred and twenty seven yards.

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Speaker 5: The one interception was right before halftime. It's kind of

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Speaker 5: a long one trying to keep it going. But Steelers

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Speaker 5: had six drives of eight or more plays. They were

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Speaker 5: moving the ball against a good defense. I think, honestly,

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Speaker 5: if you're a Steelers fan like this sounds crazy. We

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Speaker 5: know you're not supposed to win anyways, I think you

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Speaker 5: have to feel a little bit encouraged. The whole season

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Speaker 5: right now is what's Kenny Pickett. And I think you

378
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 5: feel pretty decent about Kenny Pickett. Feel better if your

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Speaker 5: Bills man Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: In the wheelhouse to be in contention for the number

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Speaker 3: one pick. With Carolina, Detroit, and Washington all at one

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Speaker 3: in four, those four teams are in the lead for

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Speaker 3: potential number one pick possibilities next year. Moving on this

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Speaker 3: to me, this could have cracked the deep dish category

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Speaker 3: if you're in for a main course meal. It was

386
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Speaker 3: in London early this morning, Green Bay, New York Giants

387
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 3: day Ball going nuts after the game. He's fired up with.

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Speaker 1: All the.

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Speaker 3: London folks. The Giants. They not only cover the eight

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Speaker 3: and a half points spread, but they win out right

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Speaker 3: twenty seven to twenty two. Saquon Barkley goes off down

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Speaker 3: the stretch, speaks very highly of his quarterback, Daniel Jones. Jill,

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Speaker 3: this NFC East has blown me away. I can't get

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Speaker 3: over how good these three teams the commit and you

395
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Speaker 3: get out of my face. But the Eagles, We'll get

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Speaker 3: to the Eagles later on. But Dallas and the Giants,

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Speaker 3: they were the next of four and one. But this

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Speaker 3: is a good win for the Giants.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, And I generally don't like to give really any

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Speaker 1: of any NFC's team credits, but the way that it

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00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: goes both ways.

402
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 2: They took advantage of these opportunities.

403
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,639
Speaker 1: In the second half, and the Packers kind of blew it,

404
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 1: and because they had first and ten at the.

405
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Speaker 2: Giants fifteen at the two minute warning.

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Speaker 1: And they give two carries to Jones and then two

407
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 1: passes that got tipped like right off a guy's helmet basically,

408
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 1: but they had four drives Packers that had in the

409
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Speaker 1: second half. That's a punt turnover on downs the way

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Speaker 1: that just happened. And then the hail Mary that happened

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Speaker 1: at the end that wasn't going to go anyway, and then.

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Speaker 2: It was game over.

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Speaker 1: And they would have been shut out in the second

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Speaker 1: half if it wasn't for the intentional safety. And it's

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Speaker 1: been kind of a trend right now for the Packers

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Speaker 1: in the second half. I think four of the five

417
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Speaker 1: games when I just went to look through it before

418
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Speaker 1: we recorded here, they haven't scored more than seven points

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Speaker 1: in the second half and four of the five games,

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Speaker 1: so it's only the Patriots game that they were able

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Speaker 1: to get more than a touchdown in the second half.

422
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Speaker 2: So their offense is really stalling.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, I think the biggest takeaway for me Gary Brightwell

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Speaker 1: running back three with the New York Giants. We have

425
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Speaker 1: a new profits leader for the anytime touchdown leader. He

426
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 1: hit today, guys at plus forty five hundred for any

427
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Speaker 1: time touchdown.

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Speaker 2: But right now I'm seeing the Packers at thirteen to

429
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Speaker 2: one right now at vandal to win the Super Bowl.

430
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Speaker 2: What have we seen.

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Speaker 1: That it would show that this is a Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: winning team? Like I would rather set my.

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Speaker 2: Money on fire than bet that right now at that.

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Speaker 3: Price, folks, I let these two normally give the analysis.

435
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,959
Speaker 3: Here's all you have to know. The corpse of Randall

436
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 3: Cobb had thirteen fing targets in this game. Randall Cobb

437
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 3: is the go to guy right now in Green Bay.

438
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 3: The absence of Adams has mattered to the Packers and

439
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 3: something's going to change there. Okay, one of our favorite

440
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 3: parts of the podcast, the recap show, we get to

441
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 3: the frozen pizzas, because some of these games just flat

442
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 3: out sucked, and quite quite a bit of the fourteen

443
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 3: a lot of them kind of stunk today. So let's

444
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 3: whip right through these, Brandon, We'll start freaking Dolphins. We

445
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 3: took a minus three. You were in on the minus three.

446
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,959
Speaker 3: But Teddy Bridgewater gets hurt in the first quarter. That sucks.

447
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 3: Michael Carter had two touchdowns, but maybe the Jets are like, legit,

448
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 3: I don't know, forty seventeen the Jets they clearly cover.

449
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, Teddy gets hurt on the first play, literally the

450
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 5: first plalay. So we bring in third string Skyler Thompson.

451
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 5: Not exactly Bailey Zappy out here. Did not get the

452
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 5: job done. But look, the Jets fans, let me say

453
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 5: some nice things for you. Breese Hall, the rookie running

454
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 5: back one hundred yards receiving, almost one hundred yards rushing

455
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 5: and two touchdowns, five rushing touchdowns for this team. Zach

456
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 5: Wilson has been good both of these games. Zach Wilson

457
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 5: has been good two games in a row. I'm not

458
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,680
Speaker 5: sure he had two good games all of last year.

459
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 5: But Scaler Thompson wasn't good and it still was nineteen

460
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 5: seventeen into the fourth quarter before some turnovers and turnovers

461
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 5: on downs gave short fields and let the game get away.

462
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 5: Let's temper expectations a little bit here. The Jets beat

463
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 5: Mitchell Trubisky and can you Pickett and now Scaler Thompson.

464
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 5: You're three and two in New York. Enjoy the win.

465
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 5: Let's not get a little too high on ourselves. It's

466
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 5: still long road ahead, I think for the Jets. So

467
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 5: looking maybe to see if the line moves a bit

468
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 5: too much on this team. I was dead wrong on

469
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 5: this one. The Jets are looking better than we thought,

470
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 5: but let's not go too crazy, Jill.

471
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 3: There is one team in the NFL that remains unbeaten

472
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:28,160
Speaker 3: against the spread, the Atlanta Falcons. They do lose twenty

473
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 3: one to sixteen to Tampa Bucks don't score at all

474
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, and Atlanta makes this interesting. The

475
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 3: Falcons are a covering machine. That's about all I got

476
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 3: for you.

477
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 2: And Tom Brady still gets.

478
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 3: Tom Brady calls, oh my god, that's true.

479
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: Was rough in the passer penalty basically sealed the game,

480
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: and it was just ridiculous that that was called. I'm

481
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 1: not going to say that the Falcons should have won

482
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: that game, but it just I felt like they got

483
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: hosed there. Marcus Mariota just again slowly decaying in front

484
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: of our eyes as a quarterback. But yeah, just Tom

485
00:22:58,600 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: Brady still gets.

486
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 3: Tom Brady calls, Well, you know, some are readings well over.

487
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 3: But we're into the fall and there's another chapter in

488
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz. Carson Wentzing Brandon Anderson. At the end of

489
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,239
Speaker 3: this game between the Titans and the Commanders, Titans win

490
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: twenty one seventeen, they cover and it comes down to

491
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz and he just, uh yeah, he throws a

492
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 3: pick in the end zone. What just about the end zone?

493
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 4: Now he does last play of the game.

494
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 5: They're trying to push, trying to get into the end

495
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 5: zone and it's another interception. Should have there an interception

496
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 5: the previous play. For being honest, he connected on some

497
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 5: deep balls in this one. The overall numbers look good.

498
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 5: But Carson, my guy, you can't give him the ball away.

499
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 5: This was a Thursday night game if we ever saw

500
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 5: one like I mean, we got Derrick Henry and Carson

501
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 5: Wentz and the Titans and Commanders.

502
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 4: Who cares? Who cares about.

503
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 5: These teams except the Titans we have to care about

504
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 5: because they're three and two division leaders now. But for me,

505
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 5: this is their third straight win all garbage wins. The

506
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 5: Titans had two hundred and forty one yards in this game.

507
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 5: They average under four yards of play against the Commanders,

508
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 5: who are not a good defense. So I don't think

509
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 5: you feel good about either one of these teams. Here's

510
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 5: your feel good. Ryan Robinson, our guy got shot a

511
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 5: month ago and is back, not only on the field

512
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 5: after practicing this week, he let the team win carries.

513
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 5: He had nine of their twelve running back carries. So

514
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 5: Ryan Robinson might be the guy going forward for this team. Sorry,

515
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 5: Antonio Gibson, they really don't like you in Washington.

516
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: Those rookie of the year looks that I think one

517
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 3: of you had earlier in the year. That's looking promising.

518
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 3: But of course we're happy for his health and he

519
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 3: We're happy he's out there let's go to Eagles Cardinals.

520
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 3: Eagles win, They win again. They hang on credit to

521
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 3: Fox the footage they got of the kicker Ammondola missing

522
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 3: kicks pre game. That was freaking hysterical. That producer deserves

523
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 3: a raise because he shows three misses pregame and then

524
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 3: what does he do. He misses the kick at the

525
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 3: end to extend the game. Kyler Murray thought he had

526
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: a first down, but he slid too early. He thought

527
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 3: he had the first down that it turns out it's

528
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 3: fourth and one. What the hell? Like, just classic Cardinals crap.

529
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: They went down fourteen to nothing in this game. Joe Gallant,

530
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 3: Cardinals do cover the spread.

531
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,239
Speaker 1: Though it was a pretty gross bet to make, and

532
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 1: I felt gross winning it, But it's right.

533
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 4: You wanted that wins a.

534
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 2: Win at plus five and a half.

535
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: But I mean, the swing's on this game in the

536
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: last two minutes is why I got really sweaty, because

537
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 1: the Eagles, they could have scored another touchdown there. They

538
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: were basically at first in goal and they had to

539
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: settle for a field goal there to go up twenty

540
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: to seventeen. Then Kyler starts driving down the field, he

541
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 1: does that slide and then they missed the forty four

542
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: to three year field goal to tie the game, and

543
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 1: again the Kingsbury trend comes through again underdog. When he's

544
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 1: an underdog versus coaches with no Super Bowl wins, he

545
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: is now thirteen to zero to one against the spread. Unfortunately,

546
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: this trend will not apply next week as he's going

547
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 1: to Seattle playing a Super Bowl winning quarterback or coach

548
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: rather and is minus two and a half point road

549
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: favorites against Seattle. And again, I don't know if I

550
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: agree with that line. I'm kind of wondering if maybe

551
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: that should be flipped.

552
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 4: We will come back to that one. I'll tell you that.

553
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 3: Let's whip through these last couple. I got really nothing

554
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: for you. On Houston Jacksonville. Does Trevor Lawrence stay Brandon?

555
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 3: I don't know. Thirteen to six Houston, they cover plus seven.

556
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 5: It wasn't great. Jacksonville's defense continues to be great. I'm

557
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 5: still in on Jacksonville. But the Jaguars were owing three

558
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 5: on fourth down, owing three in the red zone, two

559
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 5: turnovers that they can't keep making the mistakes that they're making.

560
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 5: The defense is great, held Houston to two hundred and

561
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 5: forty eight yards, basically almost nothing until that game winning drive.

562
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 5: Houston's actually won nine in a row against Jacksonville, So

563
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 5: there's there's some weird voodoo thing about Colts. Go to Jacksonville,

564
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 5: they lose. Jacksonville plays the Texans, they lose. The weird

565
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 5: stuff happening. I'm still in Jacksonville. I'm gonna buy low again.

566
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 5: I'm gonna keep playing this team. I still like them

567
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 5: in the division.

568
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 3: We fade Kingsbury on the show. We also fade Matt Ruhl,

569
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 3: who is again reminder folks, he's not a favorite. It

570
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 3: won't happen anytime soon. As Brandon Anderson warned all of

571
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 3: you a couple weeks ago. And thirty seven fifteen, the

572
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 3: Niners throttle the Carolina Panthers. They covered the six and

573
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: a half points spread quite easily. Jill, Jimmy Garoppolo just

574
00:26:58,000 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: keeps winning games here. But this Niners defense is p

575
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 3: daan legit and Baker Mayfield smells yeah.

576
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: And I think from a Matt rules standpoint, he might

577
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: be a nice guy, but he might want to start

578
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 1: packing his bags because they're one in twenty seven now

579
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: one in twenty seven. When an opponents scores seventeen points

580
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: or more and five and twenty three against the spread.

581
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: Right now in the NFL, there are only three teams

582
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: in the NFL that averaged less than seventeen points, so

583
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: that means for twenty nine other teams, it's an automatic

584
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: win when they play Carolina. And to call the Panthers.

585
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 2: The twenty ninth best team in the NFL seems about right.

586
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 3: Let me grab my thermometer, Brandon, let me pitch your head.

587
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 3: He's got Zappi fever, Baby Bailey Zappi. He's got Zappi fever.

588
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 3: Patriots win twenty nine nothing. They cover the three point spread.

589
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: Pat shut out the Detroit Lions. It wasn't all about Zappi.

590
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 3: It wasn't. The Pats had a good running attack today.

591
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 3: Dan Campbell did get Dan Campbell's stuff, and the Lions

592
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 3: they lose to ain over for the first time the season.

593
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: The Lions did not the Lions, they didn't score any points.

594
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 4: It was it was.

595
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 3: Freaking comical some of the stuff that happened today. But

596
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 3: the Patriots they get a bounce back. They get a

597
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 3: bounce back win after a tough loss to Green Bay.

598
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 5: Hard to go over when your team scores no points.

599
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 5: So we were just like a couple weeks ago where

600
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 5: the Lions were on this ridiculous streak of like sixteen

601
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 5: straight quarters with the touchdown, and now we went four

602
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 5: straight quarters with no points. So Lions are the first

603
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 5: team in NFL history to go all of six on

604
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 5: fourth down. They moved the ball pretty well, they just

605
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 5: kept stalling out. Lions going to the bye week, their

606
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 5: offense all banged up. They need this, they need this

607
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 5: early buy. And I don't know, Dan Campbell one and four.

608
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 5: We like the vibes, but at some point you got

609
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 5: to produce here. So I feel like I wouldn't be

610
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 5: shocked to see something coming out of the bye week.

611
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 5: Maybe Aaron Glenn, the decordinator, I don't know, something might

612
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 5: have to shift coming out of the bye because hard

613
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 5: knocks vibes are not enough anymore.

614
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: So after all that fourteen games that we just recapped,

615
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 3: eight and six record against the spread, four underdogs, they

616
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 3: once again climb ahead above five hundred. They are continuing

617
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 3: to do well. They are up fifteen games over five

618
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 3: hundred and forty five thirty and two. A couple of

619
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: pushes in there against the number this season. Friday best

620
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: Bets Episode four and four. We got Joe Gallant's first

621
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 3: half bet on the Chiefs, which will help transition. Now

622
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: he likes the Chiefs minus four first half full game

623
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 3: line at seven and a half Raiders Chiefs Monday Night Football. Joe,

624
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 3: we'll start with you. It's a seven and a half

625
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 3: point sparat as I said, full game fifty one and

626
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: a half of the over under. How are you feeling

627
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 3: about the minus four pick. It's at four and a

628
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 3: half now, first half between the Chiefs and the Raiders,

629
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: and also so many time touchdown possibilities.

630
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'd still play it at the four

631
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: and a half.

632
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: But obviously I think it's obviously better at minus four

633
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: because of the key number. But I still think just

634
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: the way that their offense has come out in these

635
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: first halves, I think they'll still blitz them and be

636
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: up by at least a touchdown at halftime. And speaking

637
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: of touchdowns, the guys that I like, I like mac

638
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: Hollins to be able to get another touchdown at plus

639
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: two seventy five.

640
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: Hunter Renfro will be back.

641
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: But even when Renfro was playing, mac Hollins was still

642
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: playing over eighty percent of the snaps, he is being

643
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: a little bit more of a deep route guy for

644
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: Derek Carr on the KSE side, kind of like in

645
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: the rookie Isaiah Pacheco, maybe getting a little ten Tyreek

646
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: Hill vibes.

647
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 2: He looked great versus the Bucks. Eleven carries six and

648
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,719
Speaker 2: a half yards per carry, much stronger run defense than

649
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: what the Raiders will present. And then, of course, as

650
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: I was alluding to when we were talking about the

651
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: Burrow situation there, Derek Carr to throw an interception right

652
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 2: now is minus one zh five at FanDuel and I

653
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: think right now people should be getting on that beat asap,

654
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: because he has an interception in six of his last

655
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: seven games against Kansas City, four straight games at Arrowhead,

656
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: and both of his road games this year, and you

657
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 2: know that he's going to try to force them all

658
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 2: to Devonte Adams at least ten times tomorrow. I would

659
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: be betting the house on Derek Carr small or miniature

660
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: house for ants, but not to actual host.

661
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 3: Well, and of course, like from a game script standpoint,

662
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 3: if you like first half, look at the spread in

663
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 3: of itself, it's seven and a half. It's a trailing

664
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 3: game script for the Raiders playing catch up or just

665
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: keeping as any team does, even if it's zero zero

666
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 3: or a tie game. You always have to think we

667
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 3: got to get sixes and sevens when we play this

668
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 3: team to keep pace. Brandon. When you look at the

669
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 3: total to spread, what to you is the play for

670
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: Raiders Chiefs.

671
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's annoying that we're on the wrong end of

672
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 5: the hook here at minus seven and a half, because

673
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 5: I feel pretty good about the Chiefs, but boy, I

674
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 5: wish it was the six and a half instead of

675
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:37,719
Speaker 5: the seven and a half. So I might be looking

676
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 5: to kind of wait it out and play live see

677
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 5: if I can get the Chiefs under seven instead. Here's

678
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 5: the numbers looking back in the rivalry. Chiefs have won

679
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 5: thirteen of the last fifteen games against the Raiders. They

680
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 5: have scored twenty eight or more points in eight straight

681
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 5: games against the Raiders, so I look for the team total. However,

682
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 5: we're at thirty and a half right now, so again,

683
00:31:58,240 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 5: I might wait a little bit so you might get

684
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 5: something under a twenty eight, maybe just like an opening

685
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 5: long Raiders drive or something like that. During those eight

686
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 5: games where they scored twenty eight or more, they're averaging

687
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 5: thirty seven point four points a game, so maybe we

688
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 5: don't need to worry about just get the team total

689
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 5: in Now, Mahomes is six to oh against the Raiders

690
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 5: is four and two against the spread in those games,

691
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 5: covering by ten points a game, so we like them here.

692
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 5: You figure Mahome's going to throw all over on this defense.

693
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 5: I think the question is just do the Raiders move

694
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 5: the ball? Do the Raiders score? And they have been

695
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 5: moving the ball, They're just not getting it in in

696
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 5: the red zone. But that's the sort of thing that

697
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 5: can swing. So if you like the Raiders here, let

698
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 5: me give you a couple numbers that support you. We

699
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 5: talked on Friday about divisional underdogs. These first five weeks,

700
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 5: divisional underdogs of six and a half or more points

701
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 5: are sixty percent against the spread. Today they were three

702
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 5: and oh. All three teams covered, and the Bears almost

703
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 5: one and the Falcons almost won, and the Texans did win.

704
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 5: So if you like the Raiders, that's a good spot

705
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 5: for you. And only three of the last twenty such

706
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 5: underdogs had a one before today. The Texans won, but

707
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 5: two of those teams that lost were the Chiefs in

708
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 5: a division spot. So if you like the Raiders here,

709
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 5: I think your play is the money line.

710
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 4: Home Monday Night Football.

711
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 5: Division favorites of more than seven points are only three

712
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 5: and eleven over the last decade, and six of them

713
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 5: have lost outright. So I think you either wait for

714
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 5: your spot on Kansas City take the team total, or

715
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 5: Chiefs something under seven. If you like the Raiders, I

716
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 5: think you just got to go all in and try

717
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 5: to go for the kill.

718
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 3: Okay, very good, So you go. There's your Monday Night

719
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: Football preview between the Raiders and the Chiefs. Before we

720
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 3: wrap up the episode, let's take a quick look at

721
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 3: week six lines. This is the hot Read.

722
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 4: Hot Wrap.

723
00:33:55,400 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 3: Nineteen nineteen hoil. So what the guys do and folks

724
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: that are just tuning in, maybe for the first time,

725
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 3: they're gonna just target a line they like in advance

726
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 3: before stuff starts to move as the week goes on.

727
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 3: So it's not as much about analysis of a matchup,

728
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 3: but it's anticipating a shift in the line before kickoff

729
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 3: to get the best number. So you're gonna go back

730
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 3: to the well on Thursday Night football, Brandon.

731
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 5: I am we said before Carson Wentz and the Titans

732
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 5: fell like a Thursday Night game. Well maybe it's a

733
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 5: preview because we get Carson Wentz on Thursday Night. Commanders

734
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 5: and Bears, Carson Wentz and Justin Fields make alternate plans.

735
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 5: But let's be real, you're gonna be watching anyways. We

736
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 5: all watch our football. We're gonna settle in, get your

737
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 5: frozen pizza out ahead of time for Thursday Night, and

738
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 5: take the under. We're getting to grouse. I'll take the

739
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 5: under thirty nine and a half. That number is only

740
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 5: going one direction. We all know we want to fade

741
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 5: both of these teams doing anything competent. So here's the numbers.

742
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 5: Primetime unders eleven and four so far to the under

743
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 5: this season, Thursday Night unders forty or below twenty seven

744
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 5: and two to the under seventy four percent by eight

745
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 5: points per game. Thursday under is in this range thirty

746
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 5: seven to forty eighteen four and one eighty two percent

747
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 5: by almost ten points. Now we will point out one

748
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 5: of those four was our stupid Brown Steelers game from

749
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 5: a couple weeks ago that we had we had at

750
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 5: our number on our hot red till the last play

751
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 5: of the game. But I like our chances here. Take

752
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 5: the forty if you can find at thirty nine and

753
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 5: a half. Washington's under forty three games in a row.

754
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,240
Speaker 5: The Bears are under forty three times already this season.

755
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 5: The only thing Chicago does well is run the ball.

756
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 5: That's the only thing Washington stops well is running the ball.

757
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 5: I don't see good things happening for this game. You're

758
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 5: gonna watch anyway, we as well make some money together.

759
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, this was our Week five recap episode. In

760
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 3: our Week five Monday Night football preview between the Raiders

761
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 3: and the Chiefs. Heads up to all of our listeners

762
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 3: out there, the MLB Playoffs there underway. That means starting tomorrow,

763
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 3: Action Networks baseball betting podcast Payoff Pitch will have new

764
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 3: episodes every weekday throughout the World Series. So if you

765
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: want to bet some playoff baseball, check out the Payoff

766
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 3: Pitch podcast wherever you like to listen to your podcast

767
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: for Joe Gallant, Brandon Anderson, Brendan lash Gen, thank you

768
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 3: all so much for tuning in. You all have a

769
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 3: great week, Best of luck tomorrow, and we'll catch you

770
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 3: all again for our Best Bets episode on Friday. See

771
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:30,399
Speaker 3: you later,