Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: Global News. Well, Kayleie, we've got a lot of headlines
Speaker 1: right when it comes to the virus. Today, the ECB
Speaker 1: coming out and they kind of indicated Christine Lagarde that
Speaker 1: there could be some more stimulus coming because of rising
Speaker 1: infections and more lockdowns. We did have the U S
Speaker 1: economy bounce back, but as we heard from Elena, you know,
Speaker 1: everybody's kind of cautioning that, you know, we're still amid
Speaker 1: the virus and still kind of waiting on some more stimulus.
Speaker 1: I want to throw out one number, the Institute for
Speaker 1: Health Metrics and Evaluation. It's a pretty influential modeling group.
Speaker 1: They projected a higher US death toll about four hundred
Speaker 1: five thousand COVID nineteen foot palities and that is by
Speaker 1: February first, So uh yeah, we feel like we definitely
Speaker 1: feel like a second wave here. Dr Cyber Klein is
Speaker 1: Professor of molecular microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins
Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health. Her research really focuses on
Speaker 1: how males and females differ in their immune responses to
Speaker 1: viral infection and vaccination. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Speaker 1: Public Health, of course supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder
Speaker 1: Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Klein on the phone
Speaker 1: in Baltimore. Dr Klein, great to have you here with
Speaker 1: Kelly and myself. So you see these virus heads that
Speaker 1: are coming out. Is it a second wave? Is it
Speaker 1: a third wave? What are your expectations for the coming
Speaker 1: months around the globe and here specifically in the United States? Well,
Speaker 1: thank you. Um, I think we are in the midst
Speaker 1: of seeing the second wave hit, and it's it's likely
Speaker 1: going to be a tough time that we're going to
Speaker 1: experience as we all move indoors. Um and and I
Speaker 1: think the combination of moving indoors where air circulation is
Speaker 1: obviously not as good as when we can all be outdoors,
Speaker 1: combined with pandemic fatigue which has been setting in and
Speaker 1: especially as we enter into the holidays and people want
Speaker 1: to be with families UM, and we're going to see
Speaker 1: more movement of people, UM, which will contribute to increasing
Speaker 1: the likelihood of exposures right well, and sober I just
Speaker 1: look at Europe countries like Germany and France going back
Speaker 1: to these restrictive measures because cases are so high, and
Speaker 1: I think back to the first wave of the virus
Speaker 1: in the spring, Europe was ahead of us here in
Speaker 1: the US, and then it hit us about six to
Speaker 1: eight weeks later. I mean, is that what we're heading for?
Speaker 1: I think that's what um, That's exactly what we're predicting. Yes,
Speaker 1: that we should be looking to Europe and the experiences
Speaker 1: that they are having to give us an indication of
Speaker 1: where we are headed. So is it increases in cases,
Speaker 1: increases in hospitalizations, but the death the death count or
Speaker 1: the rise in deaths isn't as bad because we have
Speaker 1: figured out treatments, UH, in terms of dealing with some
Speaker 1: of the most severe cases so that it doesn't lead
Speaker 1: to a fatality. Absolutely, So I think your interpretation is
Speaker 1: absolutely correct. We are seeing more cases, we're seeing more hospitalization.
Speaker 1: I think people are more well educated, and they're seeking
Speaker 1: um to be tested and or treated, probably earlier than
Speaker 1: what we were seeing in the first wave. I think
Speaker 1: our our biggest concern is that as cases rise and
Speaker 1: as hospitalizations rise UM. While we do have a better
Speaker 1: sense going into the second wave of how to treat
Speaker 1: patients and the diversities of how we can treat patients,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's much better than it was when we
Speaker 1: when we had to go through the shutdown in the spring.
Speaker 1: But I think the big concern is if we exhaust
Speaker 1: hospitals and we exceed the limits of our health care system,
Speaker 1: we will start to see the increases occur in satalities
Speaker 1: because we just may not have the beds and the
Speaker 1: facilities to treat people. That's just infrastructure, right, That's infrastructure.
Speaker 1: That's exactly well. So you're a professor of immunology, so
Speaker 1: let's talk about the vaccine. We heard Dr Anthony Fauci
Speaker 1: say yesterday that we could have one by January at
Speaker 1: the earliest. Does that timeline scene realistic to you. I
Speaker 1: think that timeline is absolutely realistic. I think what is
Speaker 1: going to be UM challenging for the public to UM
Speaker 1: appreciate is that while a vaccine maybe available as early
Speaker 1: as January, the rollout is going to probably take a
Speaker 1: longer duration of time, and so who has access to
Speaker 1: the vaccine as it initially has rolled out, It's obviously
Speaker 1: going to be limited. With a lot of recommendations from
Speaker 1: many organizations who've been thinking long and hard about this,
Speaker 1: that it would be health care workers, people UM at
Speaker 1: our front lines from there moving to people who are
Speaker 1: at greatest risk UM, and then slowly but surely making
Speaker 1: its way out to the rest of us UM. So,
Speaker 1: you know, I think I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: challenging for our communities as we hear a vaccine has
Speaker 1: been developed and as being rolled out, and when people
Speaker 1: don't see that coming to their neighborhood drug store or
Speaker 1: to their primary care physician pediatrician right away, I think
Speaker 1: there's just going to probably be a little frustration, but
Speaker 1: it's going to take some time. When we talk about
Speaker 1: millions and millions of doses, and if you know, these
Speaker 1: vaccines require UM special handle in conditions being kept at
Speaker 1: older temperature. Things that are just going to require ensuring
Speaker 1: that again that infrastructure that you mentioned is in place. Sobber,
Speaker 1: I want to get to the difference between women and men,
Speaker 1: but I want to ask you first more broadly about
Speaker 1: the vaccine. Once we get one, what would you need
Speaker 1: to hear, given you study this to be confident in
Speaker 1: taking it. So I'm already confident enough in taking it
Speaker 1: that I was able to get my husband enrolled in
Speaker 1: one of the trials, which trial, which trials, the Fiser trial. Okay, okay,
Speaker 1: So that's how confident. And he was, you know, patient
Speaker 1: eighties seven, so he was a part of that number.
Speaker 1: Should tell you that when you're talking about tens of thousands,
Speaker 1: he was in a very early phase two trial doing great.
Speaker 1: So what so give us some guidance though for those
Speaker 1: of us who are normal Joe's engines and you know,
Speaker 1: are just seeing a ton of vaccines being developed for
Speaker 1: hearing the conflicting things we're seeing the polls, you know,
Speaker 1: what would be your guiding words to everyone? So my
Speaker 1: guiding words, I think what's really tough is the public
Speaker 1: is having to watch science um at work and in
Speaker 1: real time and sometimes you know, it's not all perfect,
Speaker 1: and we're going to have we do have setbacks, and
Speaker 1: that is a part of the scientific process at work. UM.
Speaker 1: I think that that's a good thing. But I think
Speaker 1: it also for the public creates concern, wariness, UM questions
Speaker 1: about things like safety as well as even how effective
Speaker 1: UM these vaccines will be. Nothing is going to be
Speaker 1: put out there until it is completely determined independent, but
Speaker 1: you know by the FDA in the United States and
Speaker 1: by other groups around the world to be safe as
Speaker 1: well as effective. It's so true. Think about you take
Speaker 1: a medication. You don't think twice about it. Your doctor prescribed,
Speaker 1: but you don't go and look at like, well, what
Speaker 1: kind of trials were done and what were they you
Speaker 1: know exactly, you didn't see that at play And at
Speaker 1: times it probably wasn't pretty and at times they may
Speaker 1: have had to stop trials to manage an unusual occurrence.
Speaker 1: These are not unusual. What's unusual is we are having
Speaker 1: to do our work and have you and the rest
Speaker 1: of the public see us do our work in real time.
Speaker 1: And you know, and and and so I want to
Speaker 1: jump in, want we want to jump in because we
Speaker 1: are interested. We've been teasing that you have been studying
Speaker 1: the differences between men and women and their immune responses.
Speaker 1: What are we seeing maybe when it is when it
Speaker 1: comes to COVID. Yes, so when it comes to COVID,
Speaker 1: just as as as you announced, Um, women are doing better,
Speaker 1: and this is true across diverse adult ages. We're seeing this,
Speaker 1: um in people who are getting sick as young as
Speaker 1: twenty and as old in their hundreds. Um. While for
Speaker 1: both men and women, we do see an increase in
Speaker 1: severity of COVID nineteen with age, So that is not
Speaker 1: to say that women are completely in the clear. There
Speaker 1: is an increase in the likelihood of hospitalization, intensive care
Speaker 1: unit admission, as well as even death for both men
Speaker 1: and women, but in all adult ages it's consistently about
Speaker 1: two times higher for men. Yeah, I mean, and it's
Speaker 1: around the world. I think that's another important point. So
Speaker 1: it cuts across maybe some of the diversity that we
Speaker 1: might have and some of the social and cultural norms
Speaker 1: in just in our behaviors, in our lifestyles. Yeah, it's fascinating,
Speaker 1: and that we just keep learning more and more about
Speaker 1: this virus and the differences and then maybe similarities. UM.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Dr Sabercline. She's Professor of Molecular
Speaker 1: microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Speaker 1: Public Health. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,
Speaker 1: of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder up, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: GAUP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. On the phone in Baltimore. I
Speaker 1: just love when we keep kind of just learning more
Speaker 1: and more, right, Yeah, exactly. This is Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. And we know we
Speaker 1: heard from Dr Anthony Fauci yesterday he said vaccines at
Speaker 1: least in the US won't be available until January the earliest.
Speaker 1: We just talked about that with our last guest. Well,
Speaker 1: this week's cover story is all about the race for
Speaker 1: a vaccine here in the U s. It's of course,
Speaker 1: called Operation Warp Speed. It's the federal government's mission to
Speaker 1: accelerate development of a COVID nineteen vaccine. This story written
Speaker 1: by Bloomberg News Financial Investigation Senior writer Stephanie Baker and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News is US healthcare reporter Cynthia Kuh and Stephanie
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from London. And Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week editor Jel Webber is on the phone in Brooklyn. Joel,
Speaker 1: it's it's all about Operation Warp Speed. It's also around
Speaker 1: about a very specific company that's been involved in all
Speaker 1: of this. Yeah, that's so that, you know, we talked
Speaker 1: about vaccines a lot um in this program, and obviously
Speaker 1: I think it's one of the things that everybody is,
Speaker 1: you know, watching in addition to this, you know, election
Speaker 1: next week. But the you know, obviously the big thing
Speaker 1: here with the vaccine is, you know, how do we
Speaker 1: get to a viable vaccine and then how do you
Speaker 1: distribute it? And one of the big unknowns sort of
Speaker 1: in our coverage has been what role Operation Warp Speed
Speaker 1: actually plays in this And that was sort of the
Speaker 1: mission that we put Um, Stephanie and Cynthia on with
Speaker 1: this story. And what we what we learned in the
Speaker 1: process is Um is really told and they told the
Speaker 1: story through a company called uh Emergent, which is in Baltimore.
Speaker 1: That's a company I've never heard of, and yet they're
Speaker 1: one of the many players that are sort of in
Speaker 1: the Operation Warp Speed ecosystem. So so, Stephanie, what what
Speaker 1: is that company? Emergent tell us about Operation Warps feeds
Speaker 1: approach in the vaccine development. Yes, well, you know, Operation
Speaker 1: Warp Speed turned to Emergent when they were looking for
Speaker 1: surge capacity to make vaccines. Emergent had been a supplier
Speaker 1: to the US government for years, uh making vaccines against
Speaker 1: anthrax and smallpox, and so they were in a prime
Speaker 1: position to be able to sort of set that aside
Speaker 1: and start making COVID nineteen vaccines and had this sort
Speaker 1: of the manufacturing suites and the technology, and it turned
Speaker 1: up that there now they had worked with three of
Speaker 1: the six vaccine developers that Operation Warp Speed had has
Speaker 1: publicly backed um and you know, really turned themselves into
Speaker 1: a sort of key node of production for COVID vaccines
Speaker 1: and are gearing up in the process of making what
Speaker 1: will eventually be you know, hundreds of millions of doses
Speaker 1: of vaccines of various candidates. Now, obviously there are two
Speaker 1: things here. There's one is which vaccines will get approved,
Speaker 1: and then there's manufacturing them and making sure there's enough
Speaker 1: supply when that approval does come. And I think that's
Speaker 1: what Operation Warps who's really focused on, is making sure
Speaker 1: that the supply chain is there, that the all the
Speaker 1: manufacturers have what they need and can use, for instance,
Speaker 1: the Defense Production Act to gain priority in in in
Speaker 1: the supply chain to make sure that those doses are
Speaker 1: available if and when an approval does come right. Something
Speaker 1: that surprised me. I don't know whether it should have,
Speaker 1: considering they are intending to have this process happen at
Speaker 1: warp speed, but they say their goal is to start
Speaker 1: delivering a vaccine within twenty four hours of its approval.
Speaker 1: That's a really quick turnaround. Have they succeeded in kind
Speaker 1: of doing having that infrastructure set up for when a
Speaker 1: vaccine is ultimately approved. Well, they are trying to prepare
Speaker 1: the groundwork by doing things like building an integrated computer
Speaker 1: system to track where every dose goes. UM they've outsourced
Speaker 1: distribution to a company UM that has historically worked with
Speaker 1: the Centers for Disease Control on vaccine distribution. But of
Speaker 1: course this all depends on which vaccine gets approved and when,
Speaker 1: and there's just so many uncertainties around that. And you know,
Speaker 1: one of the front runners fiser Um, which is developing
Speaker 1: a vaccine together with Germany's BioNTech UM. You know, it
Speaker 1: has very challenging UH storage requirements. It needs to be
Speaker 1: kept at minus seventy five degrees celsius, which is I
Speaker 1: think as a hundred and twelve degrees fahrenheit. And you
Speaker 1: know that just creates huge challenges in terms of trying
Speaker 1: to farm those doses out across the country. And so
Speaker 1: I think you know they're they're working with individual states
Speaker 1: to try to come up with a plan. I think
Speaker 1: some of the states have pushed back saying, you know,
Speaker 1: you guys, you haven't provided enough detail on things like
Speaker 1: storage or funding. I think there are a lot of
Speaker 1: unanswered questions. So you get some bullish predictions from the
Speaker 1: people working within Operation Warp Speed UM, and it's it's
Speaker 1: unclear until the time comes come January you know whether
Speaker 1: or not they will be able to effectively farm this out. Um.
Speaker 1: It is a massive challenge, Stephanie. One of the big
Speaker 1: numbers in the story is eight ten billion, which is
Speaker 1: basically the figure that Operation work Speed has at its
Speaker 1: disposal to invest in incentivize the private sector and the
Speaker 1: farmer companies to help basically get a vaccino. UM. I'm
Speaker 1: wondering when you think about how big that number is
Speaker 1: in the logistical olenge that Operation Warp Speed is ultimately
Speaker 1: facing here is there is there like almost an optimistic
Speaker 1: take on this. I mean here we are like, regardless
Speaker 1: of when the vaccine comes, whether it's three months, six months,
Speaker 1: a year from now, like, we've never seen anything in
Speaker 1: the in this country operate at this velocity. What's your
Speaker 1: take on that? Yeah, you know, when I started this story,
Speaker 1: I thought there you know, there was a lot of
Speaker 1: questions about lack of transparency in whether or not you know,
Speaker 1: this was um wasted taxpayer money. But when you when
Speaker 1: you think about it, the scale of the economic fallout
Speaker 1: is so enormous. Trillions of dollars in a way, billion
Speaker 1: is very little um, and that they ought to be
Speaker 1: throwing more money at it, and we'll probably have to
Speaker 1: throw more money at it in reality when it gets
Speaker 1: down to the distribution. Um, you know, the States are
Speaker 1: demanding you know, more money. Um. You know Trump has
Speaker 1: promised to provide the vaccine for free, so has Joe Biden. Um.
Speaker 1: Joe Biden has announced that he would spend billion on
Speaker 1: on distribution. Uh, you know, additional on on the vaccine effort,
Speaker 1: including distribution. UM. So you know, I actually think that
Speaker 1: it's it is a bargain in a way, if it
Speaker 1: comes up with an effective vaccine, even if it's only one,
Speaker 1: if they're able to produce three million doses, which is
Speaker 1: the target. He's definitely just really quick thirty seconds from
Speaker 1: your reporting and what you found out about Operation Works.
Speaker 1: Do you feel like it's sometimes I think we questioned
Speaker 1: some of the efficiencies in government or lack thereof. Do
Speaker 1: you feel like it's an efficient process? Just quickly yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean we got from the companies that we spoke
Speaker 1: to they felt like they were getting the support um
Speaker 1: that they needed and that they it was surprisingly efficient. Um.
Speaker 1: And I think, you know, it's obviously a mixed picture
Speaker 1: depending on you know, what company you're talking about, but
Speaker 1: in terms of working out supply chain glitches, I think
Speaker 1: it actually has been quite effective. Pretty cool story, Um,
Speaker 1: great stuff. It's the cover story in the magazine. Stephanie Baker,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Financial Investigation, senior writer at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News joining us from London. Jill Weber, thank you as well,
Speaker 1: editor at Bloomberg Business Week. You can find that story
Speaker 1: the magazine, hitting news stands, online and on the Bloomberg Carol.
Speaker 1: It is five days to go into actually the official
Speaker 1: voting club because then we're at election day if we're
Speaker 1: playing that game, though the election has already started being
Speaker 1: fair enough. More than half of the people that voted
Speaker 1: in TWENTI have already voted early. So there you go.
Speaker 1: It's pretty wild, right, It's like the numbers that we're seeing.
Speaker 1: I think it's over seventy five million, at least at
Speaker 1: one check um that I looked at. I always look
Speaker 1: forward to talking with our next guest. Bloomberg News political
Speaker 1: contributor I own a college professor of political science, Jeanie
Speaker 1: Zeno is back with us on the phone from New Rochelle,
Speaker 1: New York up in Westchester. Genny, great to have you
Speaker 1: here with Kaylee and myself. I'm not quite sure where
Speaker 1: to start, Like, so you make up in the morning.
Speaker 1: What is it that you want to know when it
Speaker 1: comes to the campaign trial. So good to talk to
Speaker 1: both of you. It's time to believe, as you're just
Speaker 1: saying that, let's get crazy. But um, you know I
Speaker 1: I I do. As a poster, I have to confess
Speaker 1: that I do always look at the polls. We're just
Speaker 1: having this discussion in class, trying to keep in mind
Speaker 1: that these are, you know, based on probabilities. And they're
Speaker 1: fraught with you know, uncertainty at this point. But I
Speaker 1: do look at the polls. I do look at my
Speaker 1: favorite forecasters. I have to admit everybody from five thirty
Speaker 1: eight to Larry Sabato who comes on Bloomberg of course,
Speaker 1: and it's wonderful, and you know, so many of the yes,
Speaker 1: U v A. And Crystal Ball is great and of
Speaker 1: course uh Cook political reports. So there's a lot of
Speaker 1: the forecasters I look at. But I get it right
Speaker 1: last time. Um, you know, they did not necessarily get
Speaker 1: it right overall, but that but but the some of
Speaker 1: them did, but the but you know, the the was
Speaker 1: more of I think a flaw of some of the
Speaker 1: state polls. But again, you know, when you have states
Speaker 1: like Michigan, Wisconsin, UM in Pennsylvania where the president one
Speaker 1: by less than one percent, you know, those are really
Speaker 1: hard to call. So I look at that. But of course,
Speaker 1: like I always pay attention to what's going on in
Speaker 1: the news and of course the economy, like all of
Speaker 1: these things that could sort of change something as well.
Speaker 1: It's late for there to be sort of a big
Speaker 1: changing news event, but I do think it can have
Speaker 1: an impact. And one thing I'm curious about now is
Speaker 1: you know, as the prospect of the Democrats taking the
Speaker 1: Senate seems to increase, does that make people at least
Speaker 1: in the middle unwilling to sort of give all of
Speaker 1: Washington to Democrats. I think that's a big question. Well, gee,
Speaker 1: you brought up the Senate, so I want to ask you.
Speaker 1: I was looking at real clear politics right now. They
Speaker 1: see forty five seats going to Democrats Republicans. Nine are
Speaker 1: toss ups. That feels like it really could go either way,
Speaker 1: it really does, you know. I think at this point
Speaker 1: we are thinking that it looks, you know, that the
Speaker 1: Democrats can take this, but we are not sure where
Speaker 1: some of these states are going to come down. And so,
Speaker 1: you know, I think those are going to be some
Speaker 1: of the most interesting races to watch are going to
Speaker 1: be in the Senate this year. And so, you know,
Speaker 1: some of them have been fascinating just listening to the president,
Speaker 1: you know, quickly call up Martha McSally to you know,
Speaker 1: to speak yesterday and just as quickly dismissed her. And
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the state in the race
Speaker 1: like Arizona, certainly, what's going to happen in the state
Speaker 1: like Colorado, in a state like Michigan. So there are
Speaker 1: so many North Carolina. There's so many fascinating races going
Speaker 1: on around the country that could change this thing either
Speaker 1: way at this point for sure, and with the Senate
Speaker 1: and with the presidential race, I want to ask you
Speaker 1: how stimulus or the lack of getting a stimulus deal
Speaker 1: factors into this. Who does it help, who does it hurt?
Speaker 1: Does it really make a difference. I think it does
Speaker 1: make a difference. I think it is um, you know,
Speaker 1: something that I think it's something that we heard the
Speaker 1: president you know, wanted to do um and they could
Speaker 1: not get it done with the Democrats. Um, I think democrats.
Speaker 1: I think it hurts the Republicans more because I think
Speaker 1: there's a tendency for the American public to blame the
Speaker 1: people who control the White House or what doesn't does
Speaker 1: not come out whether I don't think that's even quite fair,
Speaker 1: but I think we all have a tendency to say
Speaker 1: the president could have made this happen if he or
Speaker 1: she wanted to. So I do think there's a tendency
Speaker 1: for this to hurt the Republicans because they do have
Speaker 1: the Senate and the White House. Um. But but you know,
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of blame to go around too.
Speaker 1: I think that you know, Democrats could have done more
Speaker 1: to come to an agreement. They did not do that.
Speaker 1: So I do think the stimulus plays a role. And
Speaker 1: I think as people think about, you know, the stock
Speaker 1: market and other things, the stimulus is you know, top
Speaker 1: on their mind in terms of how we go forward.
Speaker 1: And we're hearing Sauci say yesterday that we could be
Speaker 1: in the midst of this pandemic not just through but
Speaker 1: twenty two before life returns to North and so we
Speaker 1: are going to need a stimulus agreement out of Washington
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later. At a conversation with the CEO
Speaker 1: and they earlier today and saying that Cove is going
Speaker 1: to be with us for a few years. Like cases
Speaker 1: will pop up and we just have to kind of
Speaker 1: get used to it and figure out how to kind
Speaker 1: of live with it and stay safe generally. I do
Speaker 1: wonder on the early voting trends, um, is something happening
Speaker 1: in terms of a transformation of politics more than we
Speaker 1: kind of realize right now in the moment, this early
Speaker 1: voting process, Is this going to be the norm going forward?
Speaker 1: That is something I am so curious about. I do
Speaker 1: think that one of the quote unquote silver linings, if
Speaker 1: you will, of the pandemic is that it has pushed
Speaker 1: many states to adjust. Um they're the way that they
Speaker 1: allow their their their voters to vote. And I do
Speaker 1: think it once you get people in the habit of
Speaker 1: allowing them to vote by mail and vote early. Now,
Speaker 1: obviously one election is not a habit, but once you
Speaker 1: give people that option, I think it's tougher to pull
Speaker 1: that back. So I do think we are going to
Speaker 1: see a movement in this direction. It's been coming for
Speaker 1: some time. People out in the West know this. You know,
Speaker 1: states like Washington, Oregon, they've been great with voting by
Speaker 1: mail and it's increased their turnout tremendously. And so I
Speaker 1: think we start to see more of this as we
Speaker 1: go forward, and you know, consideration of other things like
Speaker 1: should we have weekend voting, um, you know, should we
Speaker 1: make voting in other words easier and more accessible than
Speaker 1: we do. And the problem in the US is always
Speaker 1: because we are a federal system that's sort of a
Speaker 1: state by state decision, So it takes some time to
Speaker 1: wave if you will, across the nation, but I think
Speaker 1: the pandemic is pushing it a bit. Jenny. What do
Speaker 1: you make of kind of the financial fortunes or lack thereof,
Speaker 1: or diminishing fortunes of the Trump campaign versus the Biden campaign. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean it's been a fascinating story. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: he has uh Biden has out raised and they can
Speaker 1: now outspend the Trump campaign. Um. And that is obviously,
Speaker 1: always in our system, a huge benefit. I would just
Speaker 1: caution it's not determinative, of course, because Hillary Clinton spend
Speaker 1: more than Donald Trump did in twenty sixteen, and so
Speaker 1: I think what the Trump campaign, you know, more often
Speaker 1: than not, money is going to translate into votes, um,
Speaker 1: but but it not always. And I think what the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign is hoping is that with these rallies and
Speaker 1: sort of the statements by the President and his surrogates,
Speaker 1: they are able to generate free media, if you will,
Speaker 1: in these battleground states and get attention that way and
Speaker 1: not have to spend I mean, this has been Donald
Speaker 1: Trump's bread and butter. As we know, he says, you know,
Speaker 1: semi controversial, outrageous things or things that get attention and
Speaker 1: he can then not spend as much as his opponents.
Speaker 1: So I don't think this is there, this was necessarily
Speaker 1: a plan. I don't think they wanted to be out,
Speaker 1: you know, be out fundraised um, but this is the
Speaker 1: position there in it is does vote very well for Biden,
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's determinative. But with those rallies
Speaker 1: you mentioned, Jennie, I have to wonder how much that
Speaker 1: really helps him reach beyond his base, because isn't he
Speaker 1: just kind of preach into the choir. Yeah, I agree
Speaker 1: with you. You know, they worked in sixteen, But I
Speaker 1: think the problem has been he's running this campaign as
Speaker 1: if it's sixteen and he's not. For one thing, we're
Speaker 1: in the midst of a pandemic, and so there's a
Speaker 1: school of thought that those rallies actually work against him
Speaker 1: when people turn on the TV, seniors for instance, who
Speaker 1: he needs to vote for him. They turn on TV
Speaker 1: and see all these people close together, unmasked, as if
Speaker 1: the pandemic isn't happening right now. So, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: not certain it works for him to that extent. And then,
Speaker 1: of course, to your point, he is, you know, the
Speaker 1: income and president as opposed to the challenger. This isn't
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, and he's got to reach independence and moderates,
Speaker 1: and I'm not so sure those rallies are going to
Speaker 1: be able to do that, but they do show that
Speaker 1: he's got energy on the ground, and there is something
Speaker 1: to say for that, you know, But I do wonder too.
Speaker 1: We have a story Jennie a Ryan te Becker back
Speaker 1: with reporting how President Trump isn't heating his aids. Advice
Speaker 1: to focus on the economy like this, You know, if
Speaker 1: there's an election playbook, it's about the economy. And if
Speaker 1: you can point to are you doing better than you were?
Speaker 1: Or have you done well under my administration? You know,
Speaker 1: that will often get people to pull the lever for
Speaker 1: you when they go into the voting booth. Why is
Speaker 1: the president maybe not running on that? These to me
Speaker 1: are this is the most confounding aspect of this campaign
Speaker 1: is that he wins when it comes to the economy.
Speaker 1: People Most people think that they are better off than
Speaker 1: they were before despite the pandemic, which is quite remarkable
Speaker 1: and to his credit, and he can point to the
Speaker 1: economy before the pandemic and say he was the leader
Speaker 1: of a really strong economy. But he hasn't been able
Speaker 1: to sustain making that case. In any time this thing
Speaker 1: refocuses on the pandemic, which is easy to do, it
Speaker 1: turns against him. And so that to me is really
Speaker 1: confounding that he hasn't focused on that. And also I
Speaker 1: think that he hasn't focused on the fact that when
Speaker 1: it comes to economic issues like regulation, taxes, the deficit,
Speaker 1: the debt, trade, all these things that we care about jobs,
Speaker 1: that a democratic, all democratic Washington is not what some
Speaker 1: Americans are going to want when they wake up in January.
Speaker 1: And he you know, if he was to make that
Speaker 1: case and say you may or not like me, but
Speaker 1: I will hold the line as I have before, that
Speaker 1: would be a winning case for many people. He hasn't,
Speaker 1: you know, found the will or the ability or the
Speaker 1: willingness to make it for some reason. Jennie, We're in
Speaker 1: the home stretch for five days or four days, Carol
Speaker 1: out from the election. What can happen? Can anything happen
Speaker 1: in the next four days that is actually going to
Speaker 1: fundamentally change the trajectory of this race? Or have already
Speaker 1: people already made up their minds already people have voted. Therefore,
Speaker 1: you know it's locked in at this point, you know,
Speaker 1: I would. I would normally say, yeah, this is pretty
Speaker 1: much in the back. You know, so much seems to
Speaker 1: happen despite what we say. But you know, the county,
Speaker 1: after all, it's twenty twenty, right, it's crazy, but you know,
Speaker 1: the calendar is getting very narrow for a big shake
Speaker 1: up at this point. They you know, some of this
Speaker 1: was tried with the Hunter Biden release doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: have had much impact, so you know, it's becoming harder.
Speaker 1: I think, sure something could happen, it would have to
Speaker 1: be pretty major, you know, something to come out about
Speaker 1: one of the candidates that was just you know, turns
Speaker 1: people who supported them against them. But even so, as
Speaker 1: you said, we've had so many people vote already they
Speaker 1: can't take back their votes. So those kinds of things
Speaker 1: make it increasingly tough to turn this ship around, if
Speaker 1: you will. At this point, does that early voting, you know,
Speaker 1: I think it tends to lean towards Democrats, but I
Speaker 1: don't know if that's true. We just got thirty seconds
Speaker 1: left here. Can you make any assumptions or maybe not.
Speaker 1: It's hard to know because just because you're registered Democrat
Speaker 1: mean you vote Democratic. So that's something to keep in mind.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff as always, Genie, Genie, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. As we always say, I want to be
Speaker 1: in her policy class. I just do. I just do.
Speaker 1: Genie's political contributor. I hear at Bloomberg News professor, a
Speaker 1: political science at Iona College. Really a great go to
Speaker 1: when it comes to this campaign and the election. On
Speaker 1: the phone from New Rochelle, New York, I'm roc journal. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no home, honey, please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the ding Drivelt me. I want to drive,
Speaker 1: just drive, baby, the question try this is the drive
Speaker 1: to the globe. Commun Thanks, We'll drying us down on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. All right, Carol, we are just about eleven
Speaker 1: minutes to the closing alone. Of course, we've got a
Speaker 1: lot of big tech names, important results in just about
Speaker 1: ten twelve minutes time. Yeah, they we're gonna be crossing
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal fast and furiously. Let's get to the
Speaker 1: drive to the close because with us, as Larry Pittkowski,
Speaker 1: he's managing partner and portfolio manager good Haven Capital Management.
Speaker 1: He's back with us. He's based in Milbourne, New Jersey,
Speaker 1: and that's where we find him on the phone. This Thursday, Larry,
Speaker 1: good to have you here with us, a very different
Speaker 1: tone from what we got from yesterday. And we saw
Speaker 1: UH stocks kind of picking up some momentum in the
Speaker 1: last hour, so so we're kind of bouncing around our
Speaker 1: highs of the day. I don't know what do you
Speaker 1: focus on right now in our world? There's so many
Speaker 1: macro stories out there right now, the big ones, the election,
Speaker 1: the virus, the lack of stimulus, waiting for stimulus. UM,
Speaker 1: what's the most important to you, the most important to us, Carol,
Speaker 1: Or what do we think about our companies and what
Speaker 1: are the few journeyings going to be? And what do
Speaker 1: we think about the future values and what price are
Speaker 1: we paying for them? And that's the most critical thing,
Speaker 1: you know, in investing UH, you have to decide if
Speaker 1: a piece of information is important and is it knowable.
Speaker 1: There's all kinds of things that are important, but they're
Speaker 1: really not knowable. And I think most of the macro
Speaker 1: stuff is not knowable. And I think it's the who's
Speaker 1: an investor of any sort to just try and focus
Speaker 1: on the businesses that you own and what you think
Speaker 1: about their future earnings capabilities are future drivers of value?
Speaker 1: And then try and pay an attractive price. And for
Speaker 1: us at good Haven, we did a little buying yesterday
Speaker 1: and we haven't done any buying today. And I think
Speaker 1: that is consistent with the opportunistic way that I try
Speaker 1: and invest money. It's so funny because everything that was
Speaker 1: true yesterday is true again today. The virus is still spreading,
Speaker 1: there's still no stimulus, there's still a lot of uncertainty
Speaker 1: that's hanging in the air when it comes to the election.
Speaker 1: Um so do you expect this kind of volatility, the
Speaker 1: daily ups and downs to continue. I think that one should.
Speaker 1: I I've written for some time that I think the
Speaker 1: nature of markets, you know, the percentage of market activity
Speaker 1: that's electronic driven, either high frequency trading, quads, passive money
Speaker 1: is a very high percentage. And a lot of those
Speaker 1: strategies to some extent or on autopilot, and a lot
Speaker 1: of it is sell weakness by strength, and so I
Speaker 1: think one should expect more volatility. The key as an
Speaker 1: investor is how do you attempt to take advantage of that?
Speaker 1: You know, for yourself or for your clients of any sort.
Speaker 1: And I think you have to be prepared. I think
Speaker 1: it helps to not be leveraged, and I think you
Speaker 1: need to have some liquidity, and then I think you
Speaker 1: have to have your shopping list and have done your homeworker.
Speaker 1: I don't think the volatility is going away. You know,
Speaker 1: put twenty people in a room, investment guys, gals, you
Speaker 1: name it, and you know, put out a Macro issue
Speaker 1: and you get ten to say one thing and ten
Speaker 1: to say the other. I mean, I feel that way
Speaker 1: about Macro, like you can go kind of a lot
Speaker 1: of different directions. That it is about knowing your companies,
Speaker 1: knowing your investments, knowing the fundamentals, and when to kind
Speaker 1: of pull the lever. So, Larry, let's drill down. You know,
Speaker 1: what are some of the names that are coming up
Speaker 1: on your radar? Where would you commit new money to
Speaker 1: right now? Well, you know, it's it's an interesting question.
Speaker 1: You know. Back ind a younger Larry Pittkowski found himself
Speaker 1: managing money during a period where there were excesses in
Speaker 1: certain areas and there were other sectors that had been
Speaker 1: kind of left behind. And at that during that period,
Speaker 1: I happen to have found a bunch of opportunities in
Speaker 1: and around the property and casualty insurance area, which for
Speaker 1: the next eight years or so, uh, you know, proved
Speaker 1: to be a very good place to have investments, while
Speaker 1: other sectors of the market went through a very difficult period.
Speaker 1: So ironically, here is we sit in. I think there
Speaker 1: are a bunch of the sector of things in and
Speaker 1: around the property and casualty insurance area. I think is
Speaker 1: an interesting place to look. And I mentioned that because
Speaker 1: I'm going to read you a a quote from I'm
Speaker 1: not going to tell you the company from an earnings
Speaker 1: report from the other day. A company put out a
Speaker 1: release and they said, by the way, the average price
Speaker 1: increased for our you know, some of our main products,
Speaker 1: and I'm paraphrasing, was fourteen and a half percent, and
Speaker 1: the top line grew eight percent in some areas. So
Speaker 1: that's not a cloud based company. That happens to be
Speaker 1: w war Berkeley, which is a property and casualty insurance
Speaker 1: company that we don't own. But it's a endemic of
Speaker 1: I think some of the positive tail winds happening in
Speaker 1: that industry. Now the sector will have some very material catastrophes.
Speaker 1: For Q three, you've got hurricanes, you've got you've had
Speaker 1: terrible fires, and you still have some COVID claims, but
Speaker 1: I think a good haven. The question that I asked myself,
Speaker 1: and you know i'm assisted here in the portfolio by
Speaker 1: Artie Kak, is where are their sectors that the market
Speaker 1: has potentially not recognized where there might still be bargains.
Speaker 1: Because there's all kinds of interesting sectors that the market
Speaker 1: has recognized them, and you know we own some of those,
Speaker 1: which is fine, But where might there be opportunities? I
Speaker 1: think here are potential opportunities. Well, you say you're looking
Speaker 1: for a bargain. Can I assume that means you're staying
Speaker 1: away from large cap tech? Well, we all we you know,
Speaker 1: we have a material exposure to Alphabet, which we've owned
Speaker 1: for a long time, and we've made an enormous amount
Speaker 1: of money on I and so. And I don't think
Speaker 1: it's priced at a ridiculous level. I think it's you know,
Speaker 1: probably like a mid twenty uh mid twenties pe xtra
Speaker 1: cash to earnings, which you know, for a company of
Speaker 1: that quality, where I think the growth will get back
Speaker 1: to some normal level and it so dominates its world.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a ridiculous level. There are all
Speaker 1: kinds of other sectors in and around tech where there
Speaker 1: seemed to be some material access is. I don't think,
Speaker 1: you know, Alphabet's one of them, and that's not a
Speaker 1: prediction about what earnings are going to in you know,
Speaker 1: twenty minutes. But there are plenty of obvious areas of
Speaker 1: material access is. But the nice thing about investing, if
Speaker 1: you're managing a portfolio that you know somewhat concentrated and
Speaker 1: you have a lot of flexibilities, you don't have to
Speaker 1: go to where their excesses. You can go instead to
Speaker 1: where you think there are opportunities. What do you say,
Speaker 1: And just got about forty seconds here. I think among
Speaker 1: your top holdings is Berkshire and then you've got Alphabet,
Speaker 1: Like it's an interesting kind of very different companies. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and berke Shure. I feel like it's going through some adjustments, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of some of its holdings and investments,
Speaker 1: but nonetheless two very different companies. What does that say
Speaker 1: about kind of your thinking? And just got about forty
Speaker 1: seconds here. Very quickly, I think what it says about
Speaker 1: my thinking, good haven thinking is we have an eclectic
Speaker 1: approach to where we may find opportunities. I think it's
Speaker 1: a mistake to just pigeonhole one self and to say
Speaker 1: it has to have a certain metric of some sort.
Speaker 1: We think Berkshire's is now our biggest holding, is very attractive.
Speaker 1: It has material holdings in and aground property and casualty
Speaker 1: insurance and reinsurance which look to have a tail wind.
Speaker 1: And I like the evolution of the uh Rod and
Speaker 1: Ted and the investment portfolio. I think it's a healthy
Speaker 1: thing for the future of the business. All right, Larry,
Speaker 1: take care good to get some thoughts from you. Larry Pitkowsky,
Speaker 1: Imaging Partner, Portfolio managing, good Haven Capital Management, on the
Speaker 1: phone in Milinburgh, New Jersey. Thanks so much for listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud
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