1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts. 2 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 2: Radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and this is Here's Why, 3 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 2: where we take one new story and explain it in 4 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 2: just a few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg. 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 3: My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. 6 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 4: That's what I want to be. A peacemaker and a unifier. 7 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 2: That was Donald Trump's inauguration speech earlier this year, pledging 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 2: to keep the United States out of foreign conflicts. But 9 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 2: since then things have changed. 10 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 4: A short time ago, the US military carried out massive 11 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 4: precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the 12 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 4: Iranian regime. 13 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 5: We've recently begun using the supreme power of the United 14 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 5: States military to destroy Venezuela terrists and trafficking networks led 15 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 5: by Nicholas. 16 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 3: Mad We made a deal with Hamas that you know, 17 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 3: they're going to be very good. They're going to behave 18 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:06,479 Speaker 3: they're going to be nice, and if they're not, we're 19 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 3: going to go and eradicate them if we have to. 20 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 3: We're going to do things to Nigeria that Nigeria is 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,199 Speaker 3: not going to be happy about, and may very well 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: go into that now disgrace country. Guns are blazing to 23 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 3: completely wipe out the Islamic terrorists who are committing these horrible, 24 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 3: horrible atrocities. 25 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 2: Since returning to the White House, Trump has threatened military 26 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: intervention in countries from the Middle East to Latin America. 27 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: It's a marked shift in US foreign policy, which now 28 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 2: involves a combination of military power and economic pressure. But 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: it's also a shift in the President's own rhetoric. So 30 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 2: here's why Trump's tone on military intervention is shifting. Our 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: head of Economics and government coverage across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, 32 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 2: and Latin America, Flavia Chris Jackson joins me now for more. Flavia, 33 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 2: with your vast portfolio, you are the perfect person to 34 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 2: talk to about this story. First of all, how big 35 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 2: a shift in position has this been from Donald Trump? 36 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: I would suggest it isn't a big shift because I 37 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: think under the ogre of America, first, you can just 38 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: about get away with anything. As we know, Donald Trump 39 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 1: is a proverbial weaver at large, and I think it's 40 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: useful to sort of go back very much to what 41 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: he is about. 42 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 5: Right. 43 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: This is no longer the Republican Party of Kissinger, who 44 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: passed away in twenty twenty three, the real politic master 45 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: who really kind of coined the sort of pragmatic ambiguity. 46 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: It is no longer, of course, the party of Dick Cheney, 47 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,679 Speaker 1: who just passed away the neo khon who would justify 48 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: military intervention under the augre of, you know, bringing democracy. 49 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: Trump is very transactional. He doesn't even pretend that he's 50 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: trying to sort of get rid of bad guys or 51 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: bring in the good guys. He's very much about dominating 52 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: natural resources. He's all about rare earths. And I think 53 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: when you're thinking specifically a venezuela, where there really is 54 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: this drum roll of like, okay, is is there going 55 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: to be a millionaire intervention? And how do you square 56 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 1: the circle between all the rhetoric of like, well, we 57 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: don't meddle in other people's affairs, but here we are 58 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: possibly meddling very much in what used to be known 59 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: as America's backyard, which was what Latin America was known 60 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 1: in the eighties and seventies. It's really very much about 61 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: him defining his sphere of influence. So Trump is about 62 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: essentially reappropriating the Western hemisphere as he sees it. So 63 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: under that banner. You can make sense of his comments 64 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: about Greenland right. Oh, you know, he is a massive island. 65 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: It feels very much close to us. I'll take that, 66 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Canada as the fifty first state, 67 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: all very much in his sphere of influence, and Latin 68 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: America of course as well. Venezuela is very close, and 69 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: I think he's thinking, well, Venezuela sitting on a lot 70 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: of oil, I would quite like to sort of secure 71 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: my own supply and be less dependent on others. And 72 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: so it falls very squarely and firmly in America. First. 73 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: I want this. I will have it without sort of 74 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: getting too embroiled in you know, is my daughter a 75 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: good guy or a bad guy? I think the administration 76 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: would not really be pushing back about what the real 77 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: reasons and what they're thinking is behind this. 78 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 2: So is it then best understood as something that's more 79 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 2: opportunistic than ideological, that Trump is shifting towards threats at 80 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 2: least and in some cases actual military intervention. 81 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, I would very much see it in terms 82 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: of opportunism and also keeping people on their toes, and 83 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: also very much learning a little bit from what we've 84 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 1: seen in the past year, right, I mean, if you 85 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: just sort of pan out and look at some of 86 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: the unprecedented events in the Middle East. We had for 87 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: the very first time Israel and Iran exchange direct fire, 88 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: and then we had the US under Midnight Hammer intervened 89 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: directly on a strike to nuclear capabilities in Iran. The 90 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: world did not end, and the battle lines were essentially redrawn. 91 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: There was a new normal of what was acceptable. 92 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 4: Now. 93 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: If we're looking at some of the saber rattling on Venezuela, 94 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: there hasn't been an outsized market reaction to it. Well, 95 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: prices haven't particularly responded, and everyone seems to be taking 96 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: it very much in their stride. If you are a Chevron, 97 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: for example, are probably thinking this is great news, sort 98 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: of securing oil supplies, getting American businesses going in again. 99 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: So there is certainly a whole series of observers who 100 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 1: are tracking GERARDA Ford a carrier sort of coming in 101 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: at some speed, at some knots and sort of taking 102 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: stock of, you know, whether something could happen by the 103 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: end of the month, and it would certainly be very 104 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: much in line for Trump, for example, who is not 105 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: sending anyone at cop thirty and has certainly made his 106 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 1: thoughts and sentiments about the environment very clear to do 107 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: something a pustionistic like that. 108 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 2: So how seriously then, should countries lie Venezuela or in 109 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: Nigeria be taking these threats of military intervention. 110 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: I would keep those two things very separate. I mean, 111 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: I would say the fact that you know Lula himself 112 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: has taken time out of his schedule to engage in 113 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: this debate is interesting and telling. I think just paying 114 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: attention to Trump's own language, that's kept all the options open. 115 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: I think it's pretty clear that US officials have been 116 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: briefing select members of the media, including the New York Times, 117 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: about the options being open. We know that Marco Rubio, 118 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: who takes a very keen interest in Latin America, certainly 119 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 1: falls into camp of well, this might be quite a 120 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: good idea, But I think Venezuela is a very, very 121 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: different proposition to Nigeria. Venezuela falls directly in the argument 122 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: I was making about your portunism. The transactionality of Trump's 123 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: foreign policy Nigeria is quite different. It's hard to say 124 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 1: don't take it seriously, But what I would say is 125 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: what you're seeing also in the sort of redefining of 126 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: the Republic Party in what MAGA is and isn't in 127 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: all the various factions foreign policy factions under that umbrella 128 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: does this sort of new Christian old Right represented by 129 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: the likes of Ted Cruz. Of course, you also have JD. Vans, 130 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: who's going to be going and representing the US at 131 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: the G twenty in South Africa, who is a Catholic convert, 132 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: and so they have been sort of driving some of this. 133 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: We would call it perhaps activism of like, oh, let's 134 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: look at these Christian minorities. So I would interpret Trump's 135 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: comments very much as the last person who might have 136 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: been in his ear. Specifically, for example, yesterday he seemed 137 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: to have brought up Nigeria again, but it also if 138 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: you sort of look at the context of it, he 139 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: seemed to have been talking about South America, but then 140 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: kind of mixed it up with South Africa, and then 141 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: it all became a big old jumble where he decided, well, 142 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: I don't like South Africa at all, it shouldn't be 143 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: part of the G twenty. And then you sort of 144 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: see himself essentially trying to convince himself of what he's 145 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: saying so on Venezuela. I think it has been a 146 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: very steady drum roll in that direction, whilst the comments 147 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: on Nigeria seem a little bit sort of random and 148 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: off the cuff. 149 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 2: How then, should we understand the balance between the threats 150 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 2: that Trump is making militarily and the economic pressure that 151 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 2: he's also using to put pressure on countries that fall 152 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: fiut of his views. 153 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: Trump uses various instruments rather bluntly. Tariffs is one and 154 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: true social is another. So his two levers are economic. 155 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: I don't like what you're doing and what you're saying. 156 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: I will threaten you with tariffs. I don't like what 157 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: you're doing or saying. I can threaten you with either 158 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: cutting off military support, or I can threaten you with 159 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: you know, potential military intervention. He won't always follow through, 160 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: but I think is very much worth bearing in mind 161 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: when he does and how he does it. Again, going 162 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: back to the spheres of influence, because I think that's 163 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: very very important. Let's not forget that he's also gone 164 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: back and forth a fair bit on Ukraine. Right at 165 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: some point it felt like he was going in, then 166 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: he was going out, then he's going back in again. 167 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: And I think you can probably look at why he 168 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: fundamentally hasn't done anything there to do with his rather 169 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: complicated relationship with Putin, and very much how he has 170 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: essentially washed his hands of Europe, sees Ukraine as Europe's problem, 171 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: and sees Russia very much as an empire that's probably 172 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 1: more powerful than even Putin might think think it is. 173 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: But he takes he sees Russia very much in empirical 174 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: terms and so has probably not very much issue with 175 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 1: Russian expansionism in Europe, whilst he's very much about setting 176 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: up his stall in the Western Hemisphere, cutting Europe off 177 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: and getting ready for the war that he's engaged with. 178 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: In China, there's of course redefining its own sphere of influence. 179 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 2: Okay, Flavia christ Jackson running our economics and government coverage 180 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 2: across Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Thank 181 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 2: you very much. For more explanation like this from our 182 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 2: team of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world, 183 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 2: go to Bloomberg dot com slash explainers. I'm Stephen Carroll. 184 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 2: This is here's why. I'll be back next week with more. 185 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.