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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Or radio show by the Fantasy.

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Speaker 1: Sports and Gaming Association and the number.

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Speaker 2: One show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 1: All Right, here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 1: thirty five, forty forty five fifty A kickoff block Look

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Speaker 1: college football world.

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Speaker 2: Stander, Oh my goodness it.

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Speaker 1: Stumble the lateral t a counter on the inside, Get

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Speaker 1: you the lad.

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Speaker 3: Table off the.

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Speaker 1: Field to night.

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Speaker 4: It's not the sage of the game anything, It's the.

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Speaker 1: Sage of the fight. What's up the general nation? Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Act Network Podcast. This is the College Football

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Speaker 1: SEC Betting Preview. I'm stucky and with me as always

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Speaker 1: is Colin Wilson. It feels good to be back.

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Speaker 5: This is my most favorite thing to do in the

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Speaker 5: whole world. I've been thinking about it, like how excited

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Speaker 5: I am to talk about real, actual football that's gonna

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Speaker 5: be played this weekend. And you know, we had some

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Speaker 5: bumps in the road, we had some highs and lows.

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Speaker 5: We're gonna play, We're not gonna play. Who knows if

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Speaker 5: we're gonna finish the college football Playoff. Thanks, we're gonna finish.

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Speaker 5: But I mean, this is the greatest feeling in the

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Speaker 5: world to be recording and soon to be interacting with

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Speaker 5: everybody and bitching about the governors and the Purple Bears.

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Speaker 1: It says an odd year and like we're way behind

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Speaker 1: the time because we didn't I didn't think there was

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Speaker 1: gonna be confident there was gonna be something, and not

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Speaker 1: at anything. Now confident we're gonna start. It's just a

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Speaker 1: matter of if we're gonna finish. That's the biggest question

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Speaker 1: for me. But now we feel confident that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get games starting on Saturday night nine o'clock. I think

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Speaker 1: it's on ESPN between Austin p and in Central Arkansas,

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Speaker 1: Central Arkansas. We talked about we'll play anybody they played

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Speaker 1: in North Dakota State. North Coast State's playing one game

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Speaker 1: this year for Trey Lance, our quarterback is gonna get

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Speaker 1: drafted as like a showcase game. We'll get to that game.

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Speaker 1: Colin had a right up on the action app for it.

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Speaker 2: College football is getting weird.

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Speaker 1: So we have some FCS or no, there's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a lot of FBSFCS games early on that we'll talk about.

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Speaker 1: So for u FCS fans, that's good news for you.

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Speaker 1: This is the SEC betting preview, so we're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about all fourteen SEC teams. We're gonna talk with friend

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Speaker 1: of the pod, Brody Miller about LSU specifically. We had

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Speaker 1: him on all throughout last year and they won the

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Speaker 1: national championship. Felt natural to just have him on for

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Speaker 1: this first preview pod. Next week we'll have an ACC

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Speaker 1: Big twelve preview in a combined episode. We'll also then

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Speaker 1: have a Week one preview like normal, come out on Friday.

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Speaker 1: We'll go through the Week one games now the Week

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Speaker 1: one games. It's a very bear bear bear slate. I

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Speaker 1: think there's like eight games between Saturday and we did Monday.

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Speaker 1: We have much the night football between BUYU and Navy,

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Speaker 1: which I'm excited for, so we'll cover those games. We'll

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Speaker 1: also just mix in a few nuggets on the other conferences,

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Speaker 1: the non power fliers that haven't canceled, so everyone but

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Speaker 1: the MAC in Mountain West. But today we're gonna talk SEC.

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Speaker 1: We figured we should start here. The SEC has won

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Speaker 1: what ten of the last fourteen national championships, including last

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Speaker 1: year with LSU. Before this, before team started canceling, you

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Speaker 1: could make a case, you could make a case that

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Speaker 1: I would say maybe six SEC teams were in the

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Speaker 1: top fifteen nationally. And this is before we've had you know,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State is not going to play and so that's

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Speaker 1: even bigger. So it's very It's a loaded conference as always,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get to every team. We're gonna get to

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Speaker 1: Collins Arkansas where they lost nineteen straight conference games. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna see if Colin thinks that'll be extended to nineteen

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Speaker 1: by the end of this year, and we'll get to

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Speaker 1: all the teams. But first, let's start off with LSU.

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Speaker 4: Just go beyond.

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Speaker 1: There's no question about it. We're now bringing in front

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Speaker 1: of the pod national champion of athletic right now. He

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Speaker 1: has all the bragging rights. You know him, I know him.

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Speaker 1: You could follow him on Twitter at Brody A. Miller.

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Speaker 1: He covers all things LSU college basketball, a lot of

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Speaker 1: news there as well, and college football. So first off, congrats,

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Speaker 1: where did you watch the game and how did you

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Speaker 1: how'd you enjoy it?

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Speaker 4: Well, I was in the Superdome, Yes, I was there

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Speaker 4: covering the game and whatnot. Yeah, I'm not actually an

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Speaker 4: LSU fan. I mean I'm twenty five years old and

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Speaker 4: I covered probably the most interesting season I'll ever cover.

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Speaker 4: So I might have peaked in that sense, but you

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Speaker 4: had to be rooting for them, right, I think I

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Speaker 4: was rooting for them to have a good year. But

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Speaker 4: then once it gets to that point, Hey, whatever happens to.

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Speaker 2: Happen, Brody roots for Indiana is free time.

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Speaker 5: And truth be known, this was a heavy play on

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Speaker 5: Indiana season coming up, so.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna have Hey, you had to just bring that up.

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Speaker 1: It was nine.

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Speaker 4: Indiana was going to finally happened. It was going to

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Speaker 4: be the best AUE football season and who knows how

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Speaker 4: long and now we'll never know, We'll never know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Bertie, let me start with the reason why

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Speaker 1: Indiana isn't playing unfortunately, and that is because of obviously

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Speaker 1: the pandemic and COVID, and with most conversations in college

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Speaker 1: football this year, we're it's logical to start there. So

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Speaker 1: there's there was news out of LSU today of an

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Speaker 1: outbreak with the football team. So do you want to

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Speaker 1: give us an update on what is going on if

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Speaker 1: you expect to happen in all that jazz.

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Speaker 4: In the last few days, LSU basically their entire offensive

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Speaker 4: line has been you know, depleted, though I guess that's

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Speaker 4: the word depleted by you know, I mean basically at

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Speaker 4: all but four offensive linements have either offensive linement have

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Speaker 4: either tested positive or are being isolated. You know, did

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Speaker 4: you to exposure? So LSU is basically for about two

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Speaker 4: weeks practicing without an offensive line in all honesty, So yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's going to be a I mean, in all indications

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Speaker 4: are no known major symptoms or anyone you know, actually

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Speaker 4: being in major trouble yet, so everyone should in theory

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Speaker 4: recover in a few weeks. But I mean, first off,

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Speaker 4: you don't never know, we're still figuring out the side

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Speaker 4: effects are start there. But two obviously that you know,

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Speaker 4: in the mediate terms, the practicing is going to be

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Speaker 4: pretty weird. They're basically doing seven on seven practice and

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Speaker 4: can't really spend any time practicing the offensive line, which

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Speaker 4: matters this year because it's pretty much an entirely new

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Speaker 4: offensive line and they definitely need that time to jail.

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Speaker 4: So not good news for all as.

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Speaker 5: You for sure, Yeah, it could be a scramble drill

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Speaker 5: for Miles Brnnan. I've said this about week one. When

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Speaker 5: we come up on September twenty six, when the SEC

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Speaker 5: starts of course others will have games already, but the

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Speaker 5: first game for everybody, I think is just going to

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Speaker 5: be extremely poor tackling, bad technique by offensive linemen because

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Speaker 5: you can't simulate game speed. And now LSU is going

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Speaker 5: to be without their offensive line at least they're going

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Speaker 5: to be, you know, out of commission for ten to

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Speaker 5: fourteen days and the rest of the team is going

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Speaker 5: to be used to play in seven on seven. So

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Speaker 5: that leads me into my first question, which has got

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Speaker 5: to be everybody's number one question, which is Miles Brennan

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Speaker 5: and how is he adjusting to the offense and now

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Speaker 5: Scott lind Han is the new passing game coordinator over

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Speaker 5: Joe Brady, And how has Miles Brennan accepted the role

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Speaker 5: like put it on his back, and what do we

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Speaker 5: think he's going to be for LSU this year?

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Speaker 4: I have to start with you know the thing I

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Speaker 4: always feel like I need to say, not that you

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Speaker 4: guys don't know this, but just like for everyone you

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Speaker 4: know listening, and that Miles Brennan is in the most

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Speaker 4: unfortunate in some ways, he's in a fortunate offituation because

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Speaker 4: he's inheriting an offense that finally figured it out. But

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Speaker 4: it's very unfortunate because LSU quarterbacks, as you guys know,

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Speaker 4: I mean, historically, it's it's kind of mind boggling that

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Speaker 4: for a program so big, they have pretty much historically

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Speaker 4: never been able to develop quarterbacks and really genuinely produced

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Speaker 4: in college. So Miles Brennan, I mean, if he has

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Speaker 4: the year that I expect him to have in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 4: it would be by far the best season in LSU history.

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Speaker 4: I mean, if he threw for thirty touchdowns and thirty

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Speaker 4: five hundred yards or something, that's the best season in

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Speaker 4: LSU history. But he's following Joe Burrow who just shattered

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Speaker 4: every passing round for whatever and threw for sixty touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: And now it's kind of funny how this is all

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Speaker 4: gonna work out where the expectations are almost now e skewed,

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Speaker 4: even though this team is so used to not having

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Speaker 4: good quarterback play. So I say all that to say,

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Speaker 4: I think Miles Brennan's going to be a pretty solid

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Speaker 4: SEC quarterback, you know. I mean, I'll admit Eigh as

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Speaker 4: much as anybody, just from covering this beat for a

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Speaker 4: few years, kind of always had this idea of him

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Speaker 4: as this rich kid, you know, switched hair, you know,

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Speaker 4: doesn't really put that much work in, kind of guy

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Speaker 4: who just had a really big arm. And I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, while reporting a feature on is gonna run

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Speaker 4: next week and just you know, talking to people around

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Speaker 4: the program, I think I was kind of wrong. I

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Speaker 4: think he he's actually a country boy from Mississippi who

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Speaker 4: wants to hunt and fish all the time. He does

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Speaker 4: have a huge arm. I do he put on about

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Speaker 4: forty pounds of muscle, mainly since he got to LSU,

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Speaker 4: because that was his other big knockers that he was

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Speaker 4: too slim and all that, and he admits that he

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Speaker 4: couldn't have taken that SEC hit two years ago, but

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Speaker 4: you know, he gained that weight learned from Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 4: I think he puts the time in more now than

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Speaker 4: he ever did before. From what I gathered, the guys

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Speaker 4: generally follow him. Yeah, sure, not to be except they

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Speaker 4: followed Joe Burrow. But there they are behind him, So

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Speaker 4: I think they have a pretty good system for him.

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Speaker 4: He's inheriting that system. And you have maybe, if not

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Speaker 4: the best, what top two or three you know overall

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Speaker 4: receiving core and tight end core in the country, so

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Speaker 4: he's in position to succeed. So if Miles Brennan's even

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Speaker 4: a B B plus, then he probably puts up, like

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Speaker 4: I said, thirty five hundreds of thirty touchdowns. You know,

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Speaker 4: well that's in the twelve game season. Sorry forgive me,

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Speaker 4: but you know what I mean. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 4: Miles Brennan's going to be a perfectly solid quarterback with

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Speaker 4: the weapons he has. The question really for me is

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Speaker 4: just is this offensive scheme going to keep rolling even

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Speaker 4: without Joe Brady and all those pieces.

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Speaker 1: Let me move to the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 1: because I do think that's it's really going to come

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Speaker 1: down to Brennan cannot obviously duplicate the historic season Barrow had,

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Speaker 1: but you know, his production and what that offense can

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Speaker 1: do is going to come down to him. I want

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Speaker 1: to turn to the defensive side of the ball, you know,

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Speaker 1: and Dallas, you what is going through. Obviously a lot

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Speaker 1: of a lot of change with the fifteen players get drafted,

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Speaker 1: new coordinators and new schemes, and I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about the defensive side of the ball. You have Polini

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Speaker 1: coming in, Who's I think gonna run more four man fronts,

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Speaker 1: which I actually that's like what LSU is to me,

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Speaker 1: and I actually think it might be a better fit

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Speaker 1: for this defense. In particular, I'd like to see them

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Speaker 1: be more aggressive on defense, which I think Polini will do.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think about the front seven and

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Speaker 1: the scheme change and how that will play out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you asked, because you know, you said

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Speaker 4: you want to see them be more aggressive, and that's

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Speaker 4: actually exactly what ed Ozeron wants. And it's been a

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Speaker 4: really fascinating thing to learn over the past few months that,

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Speaker 4: I mean, no one's gonna argue Dave Rand is one

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Speaker 4: of the smartest football minds like you will ever meet.

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Speaker 4: I mean, he's clearly one of the most respected coordinators

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Speaker 4: in football for the last five years. But EDS inherited

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Speaker 4: him obviously, you know, was happy to get the job

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Speaker 4: and he wasn't going to replace this really stud offensive

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Speaker 4: defensive coordinator. But they didn't actually necessarily, I'm not saying

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Speaker 4: it was hostile, but they didn't have the same philosophies

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Speaker 4: on defense. Dave Rand he liked one high safety and

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Speaker 4: he like moving guys around. He liked a three to

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Speaker 4: four scheme and whatnot. He's you know, his scheme was complicated,

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Speaker 4: but he didn't do too much, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 4: And at Ojeron he wants you know, he's from Miami

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Speaker 4: in the late eighties, he's from usc in the two thousands.

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Speaker 4: He wants that four to three scheme, attacking defensive line

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Speaker 4: and getting upfield, blitzing and whatnot, and that is what

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Speaker 4: bo Plani wants to bring too. So I mean, first off,

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Speaker 4: from a personnel perspective, before three, I think, like you said,

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Speaker 4: I think he just fits all.

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Speaker 1: As you better.

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Speaker 4: But two, I do think bo Plani and at Ojon

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Speaker 4: might be a little more aligned and they might be

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Speaker 4: able to get some more out of some of their

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Speaker 4: biggest strengths, which is grant defensive line. In my opinions,

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Speaker 4: I would say defensive lines and strength of the defense. Granted,

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Speaker 4: you just lost Neil Ferrell, who I mean, even though

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Speaker 4: he's technically a backup, was actually their most productive defensive

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Speaker 4: lineman last year and I thought it was gonna have

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Speaker 4: a huge year. He opted out this season, but still

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Speaker 4: that's their number three defensive tackles. So I mean that

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Speaker 4: tells you something. Tyler Shelvin is a chance of being

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Speaker 4: a first round pick if he's in shape. I mean,

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Speaker 4: when he's in shape, he is probably the best interior

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Speaker 4: defensive line I'm in the SEC. Then Glenn Logan's a

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Speaker 4: three year starter who didn't put up a lot of

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Speaker 4: numbers of the three four, and I don't know what

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Speaker 4: his healing is, but I do expect to see a little.

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Speaker 4: I think he actually could be a really good matchup

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Speaker 4: as a three tech team a defensive tackle. And then

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Speaker 4: you have off who like who they think is going

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Speaker 4: to be an All SEC guy eventually on the defensive line.

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Speaker 4: The question's defensive end because you have so little known there.

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Speaker 4: You know, they have two veteran guys, andre Anstey and

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Speaker 4: Trevez Moore, who are really really good pass rushers and

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Speaker 4: but you know, weren't necessarily good at the other things.

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Speaker 4: Maybe they'll they'll thrive in a four to three, but

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Speaker 4: you know, it's hard to really bet on that. Or

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Speaker 4: bj Jalari is a name you definitely should kind of

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Speaker 4: write down because he's a true freshman who I mean,

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Speaker 4: they hit four and a half four or five sacks

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Speaker 4: in practice Monday, and they think he's going to be

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Speaker 4: an All American in LSU. But you know, you never

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Speaker 4: want to put money on a true freshman defensive end either,

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Speaker 4: so defensive ends the question mark and sorry for the

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Speaker 4: long wins answer, But my overall thoughts are I think

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Speaker 4: ls who's really talented in the front seven. Linebacker death

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Speaker 4: is a little tricky. If one guy goes down, you're

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Speaker 4: actually kind of in trouble. But Jimoon Clark and Jabril

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Speaker 4: Cox two of them, since they're obviously going to play

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Speaker 4: nickel most of the time, it's really going to be

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Speaker 4: a four, two, five a lot. Those two are two

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Speaker 4: of you know, starting linebackers that I think you'll find

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Speaker 4: ja Bill Talks would have been a third round pick

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Speaker 4: if you and.

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Speaker 1: Pro this year.

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Speaker 4: Front seven is pretty darn talented, and I think both

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Speaker 4: plane will actually get more out of it than David

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Speaker 4: Rander do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you and Tabrill Cox. For those

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Speaker 1: now familiar as the North Dakota State transfer, secondary is

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Speaker 1: always an interesting topic at LSU Colin you want to attack.

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Speaker 5: There, Yeah, I mean it's really an interesting topic because

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Speaker 5: if you look at the new schedule for the SEC,

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Speaker 5: LSU draws Mississippi State in the air raid week one,

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Speaker 5: and you know, and so you know, Christian Fulton has

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Speaker 5: moved on to the Titans. Uh, you know Stingley is

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Speaker 5: still going to cover one of those sides as a corner,

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Speaker 5: but you know, Kerry Vincent opted out for the season,

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Speaker 5: and Jacoby Stevens is kind of doing a position change

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Speaker 5: because he was a hybrid linebacker.

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Speaker 2: Looks like he's going to go be a two high safety.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if you know, Delpit had played so

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Speaker 5: many different positions and you put him a lot of

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Speaker 5: places on the field. I don't know if that's what

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Speaker 5: they're returning to get out of Stevens. But outside of Stingley,

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Speaker 5: are there any concerns and the depth and experience in

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Speaker 5: the secondary, especially with Vincent opting out, and is there

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Speaker 5: maybe a breakout star because lsu Is famously populates the

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Speaker 5: NFL with defensive backs, is there a breakout star or

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Speaker 5: should we be worried about the new look air raid

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Speaker 5: out of the City State week one?

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Speaker 4: So my overall reaction is you kind of nailed a

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Speaker 4: lot of it, and that my overall feeling on the

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Speaker 4: secondary is there's a ton of really exciting talent there well,

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Speaker 4: with Terry Vincent opting out and Marcel Brooks. Granted, Marcel

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Speaker 4: Brooks is going to play linebacker, but he transferred and

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Speaker 4: he was a safety. You know, you're not loving your

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Speaker 4: depth there in the secondary. But what at least the

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Speaker 4: corner I should say, Well, that first group or those

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Speaker 4: you know, if it took up the whole second year,

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Speaker 4: that top like six guys are really really talented. So

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Speaker 4: I mean, obviously Derek Single is probably the best cornerback

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Speaker 4: in all football. Cordell Flott is a guy who you know,

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Speaker 4: rotated in pretty consistently as a true freshman last year

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Speaker 4: as an under recruited guy. He's pretty much guaranteed to

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Speaker 4: take either the outside the corner spot or the nickel spot,

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Speaker 4: and they really like him as a true covered kind

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Speaker 4: of corner. And Elias Rix is a five star top

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Speaker 4: twenty player in the country who, again, you know, you

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Speaker 4: always have to keep drye open on how freshman's gonna do,

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Speaker 4: but he seems pretty guaranteed to take one of those

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Speaker 4: spots as well. So you know, those three they really like,

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Speaker 4: but then don't necessarily like the depth. And then at safety,

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Speaker 4: like you said, Ja Kobe Stevens, I still think both

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Speaker 4: Lean's gonna move him around a lot, like David rand did.

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Speaker 4: I do think that's gonna happen. Yes, I think they're

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Speaker 4: going to play too high safety, but I bet we

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Speaker 4: see three safety looks where Kobe Stevens is moving around

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Speaker 4: toward the box, because I think everyone understands if you

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Speaker 4: want to get the most at Kobe Stevens, you need

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Speaker 4: him near the box. But still you have him. You

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Speaker 4: have Todd Harris coming back, who Tod Harris was basically

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Speaker 4: their you know, their third starting safety last season, but

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Speaker 4: then went down Week three with the twenty A cl

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Speaker 4: He's back. He's a veteran piece, you know. And then

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Speaker 4: Moehampton's the guy who if you remember when Grant Helpic

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Speaker 4: finally rested against the against Arkansas, Moehampton is a true

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Speaker 4: freshman who came in and started for him and actually

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Speaker 4: impressed enough to kind of basically kind of earn some

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Speaker 4: rotation time throughout the college football playoff in the postseason.

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Speaker 4: He's a guy he was a top I think one

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Speaker 4: hundred or at least one fifty recruit coming out of

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Speaker 4: high school. And he's somebody who can also play corner

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Speaker 4: and safety, which is to get to I can't help

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Speaker 4: but wonder with those depth issues, if you almost have

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Speaker 4: to explore maybe trying him out of that nickel spot

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Speaker 4: and kind of let him be versatile because he can

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Speaker 4: play both. The other name I'll really throw out there

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Speaker 4: that probably you should know is Jordan Tolds, who's a

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Speaker 4: true freshman who is absolutely going to see the field

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Speaker 4: this year. I'm not sure if he's going to start,

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Speaker 4: but he will play. I mean's like one of those

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Speaker 4: two hundred I think sixteen or eighteen pounds safeties. You

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Speaker 4: can fly around the field top one hundred recruit and

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Speaker 4: you know, everything I've heard is actually he would have

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Speaker 4: been a way bigger recruit, but because he was a

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Speaker 4: two score guy who played basketball too and might play basketball. Also,

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Speaker 4: he didn't really do the circuit, so he wasn't as

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Speaker 4: big of a recruit. He's a guy that definitely watched there.

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Speaker 4: So you know, I like your depth at safety. I

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Speaker 4: just don't like the depth of corner. But I wonder

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Speaker 4: if they're going to move guys around to try to

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Speaker 4: balance them.

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Speaker 1: That's an extremely in depth answer, which is why we

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Speaker 1: are no. No, that's that's a compliment. We go so

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Speaker 1: in depth on these things too, and that's why we

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Speaker 1: love having you on. There's no fluff answers. Uh, and

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Speaker 1: these are the things the insights that we're looking for.

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Speaker 1: ME know our listeners are looking for. Uh. If we

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Speaker 1: get through the season, we know we're going to have

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Speaker 1: you back. But I do have two other questions before

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Speaker 1: I let you go. One, I have to get this in.

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Speaker 1: You have to be excited for the LSU special teams right,

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Speaker 1: and then because I am. And also just this is

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Speaker 1: a betting podcast. So if you had to just sum

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Speaker 1: up how you see the season playing out, and if

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Speaker 1: you think the win total I think which is at

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Speaker 1: seven over seven minus one forty. If you think that's

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Speaker 1: about right, I think it's too low, too high. So

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Speaker 1: special teams and just overall thoughts, and then we'll get

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Speaker 1: you out. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well yeah, special teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you.

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Speaker 4: I do think those who should have one of the

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Speaker 4: better special teams units in college football. One Greg McMahon,

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Speaker 4: you know, former longtime Saints special teams coordinator and benillas Hooper.

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Speaker 4: I think this is year three. I think he's earned

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Speaker 4: the right to kind of be a guy who I

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Speaker 4: think you should just expect. Eli's pretty sady that you're in,

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Speaker 4: you're out. I think they've been top twenty or top

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Speaker 4: twenty five and sp plus you know for special teams,

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Speaker 4: I think every year. But also yeah, you have Kave

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Speaker 4: York going to a sophomore year. Obviously a kicker, and

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Speaker 4: obviously he had some highs and lows last year, but

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Speaker 4: he ended up season pretty strong. He's a really talented kicker.

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Speaker 4: I expect him to be pretty consistent this year. Dachson

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Speaker 4: Rosenberg is literally going to be a thirty year old,

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Speaker 4: fifty year senior punter, former minor league baseball player, and

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Speaker 4: he's obviously pretty consistently been a top you know, I

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Speaker 4: don't know thirty punter in the country, so he's definitely

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Speaker 4: another guy you can trust. And Derek Stingly, while he

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Speaker 4: ended up having pretty disappointing results last year overall at

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Speaker 4: punt returner, I mean they still like they really believe.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we've also don't play deepense that he should

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Speaker 4: be like one of those all time special punt return guys.

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Speaker 4: So I'm not sure if it's going to come together

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Speaker 4: this year, but you do with the factor, and he

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Speaker 4: really might do that. So yeah, I expect, and I

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Speaker 4: think kick returning note, I think actually might be a

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Speaker 4: little better with you know, someone like John Emery maybe

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Speaker 4: back there, the former five star running back. So I'm

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Speaker 4: interested to see that. But when you talk about the bet, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean because I think as of a week o

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Speaker 4: six and a half, I saw a lot of places

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Speaker 4: which listen, you know me, guys, I'm not afraid to

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Speaker 4: be like, hey, ils has problems, like they're offensive line

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Speaker 4: has problems, I think, the secondary of death issues. But

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Speaker 4: when you look at the schedule they were handed, they

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Speaker 4: were saying, by a wide margin, the most beneficial schedule

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Speaker 4: you are going to find in this all conference because

432
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 4: they do not have a single back. Okay, so else

433
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 4: he was basically what four marquee games, right, you got Alabama,

434
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 4: A and M Auburn and Florida. The rest are you

435
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,360
Speaker 4: would assume wins. Maybe you lose one, but they really

436
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,679
Speaker 4: should win those other six. Well, of those four marquee games,

437
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 4: none of them ran back to back weeks. And you

438
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 4: look at any other SEC team, almost every other SEC

439
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 4: team has like a three game gomplet right, like everyone

440
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 4: else is like one of those three weeks straight stretches

441
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 4: where you're playing tough games. LSU doesn't even have a

442
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 4: two week gump. They pretty much always have big games.

443
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 4: Then a you know, a tune up game, and it's

444
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,719
Speaker 4: kind of really fortunate that way. I mean, I had

445
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 4: an LSU administrator tell me he's like, hey, it was

446
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 4: like they were in my head when they were making

447
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 4: the schedule. So you factor that in, and you factor

448
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 4: and they start the season with Mississippi State, Missouri, and

449
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 4: Vanderbilt before they play Florida. So you have a brand

450
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 4: new quarterback, a new offensive line on all these things,

451
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,919
Speaker 4: and you basically have a three week three season. I mean,

452
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,959
Speaker 4: if we're being honest, so I think this schedule couldn't

453
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 4: be more beneficial to LSU. So I mean, if you're

454
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 4: taking an under seven, I mean you're basically saying you

455
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 4: think it was all four Marquee games, which I mean

456
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 4: one in three I could see happening, but losing all

457
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 4: four doesn't seem likely. So I think I take the

458
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 4: over on that's seven any day.

459
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 5: I'll completely agree if you if you own the Action app.

460
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 5: But I believe the same time Brody was talking about

461
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 5: that on his Twitter, I was trying to push some

462
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,159
Speaker 5: money around and get that number move, So I.

463
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:24,199
Speaker 4: Know I think we were dming when I got an

464
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,679
Speaker 4: alert on Action Direct that you submitted that beat, and I'm.

465
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 5: Like, all right, Colin, yeah, yeah, you gotta have your

466
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 5: notifications turned on because it's gambling season of football. But yeah,

467
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 5: that LSU number I thought was a little outrageous. I

468
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 5: thought it was about one too shy. It should have

469
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 5: been more like seven and a half. So I'm glad

470
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 5: I get some agreement here for Brody.

471
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,879
Speaker 1: All right, mister Millers, we appreciate your time as always,

472
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: and hopefully we get a full uninterrupted season and everyone

473
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 1: stays healthy and safe. So enjoy the college football whatever

474
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,160
Speaker 1: we get, and we'll talk you throughout the season. Thanks again,

475
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 1: thanks for having me on, guys.

476
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:56,200
Speaker 4: Really always a pleasure.

477
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,919
Speaker 1: That is Brody Miller of the Athletic And just as

478
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 1: a quick reminder, make sure you subscribe on scrib Just

479
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: take a second you're listening to this. You enjoy the

480
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 1: comfortable podcast. It really helps us rate review, Tell a friend,

481
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: tell an enemy. Make sure you also check out the

482
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 1: action app. All right, so let's run through the rest

483
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 1: of the conference. So basically the way, yes, he's going

484
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 1: to start on No, it's to ten conference games, so

485
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: all every team just has a conference schedule. Ten conference

486
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: games starts on September twenty six, so we're not starting

487
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: for a little bit here, and then every team is

488
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: one by week build in. And then also December twelfth

489
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: is an open date, so if you need to move

490
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: a game, you can play that weekend, and then we'll

491
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 1: have the conference championship. The divisions are staying the same,

492
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 1: just like before. So let's run through all these teams.

493
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: We did LSU, so I guess let's stay in the

494
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 1: SCC West. We'll take just a couple of minutes. If

495
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: you do love a wind total, I think I'm staying

496
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: away from all windowtals, so I don't either. There's just

497
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: too much uncertainty with this season. So colin time in

498
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 1: if you like a wind total. I did play one

499
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,479
Speaker 1: future in the SEC that I will get to when

500
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 1: we get to that team. But basically the objective of

501
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 1: this podcast, you know, we have a month until seas

502
00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: to get the juices flow and get you familiar with

503
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: some of the strengths and weaknesses just overall feel for

504
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: some of these teams. So we'll cover the rest of

505
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 1: the thirteen teams pretty quickly. Now let me caution you

506
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 1: this is only an exhibition. This is not a competition.

507
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 1: As always, please no Waydering at Alabama clearly the favorite look.

508
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 1: It's really amazing. I was ten players in the first

509
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: three rounds of the NFL Draft, two wide receivers in

510
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 1: the top fifteen, Yet their wide receiving corps might be

511
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: just as loaded with Wattle and Smith, and this team

512
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: might be better than last year if the quarterback position

513
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: works out with either Mac Jones or the super talented

514
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: dual threat freshman Bryce Young. You know, half those thirty

515
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: was so young and so hurt last year, but one

516
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: time there was half the starters were true freshmen. You

517
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 1: get Dylan Moses back, there's coordinator continuity for the first

518
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: time in a while, which I think will pay off.

519
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: And this is the season you want, Nick Saban, It's

520
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 1: like revenge season. They didn't make the playoffs for the

521
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 1: first time in six years. Last year they won LSU

522
00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 1: bad and during all this chaos, that structure that's even

523
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 1: demands this is that's what you want in this chaotic

524
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: season made. The secondary probably is the biggest question mark

525
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: outside of certain but this team looks loaded. I think

526
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 1: they're getting to the SEC title game and they're winning

527
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 1: the West. What's say you with just high level Boubata

528
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 1: high level.

529
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 5: I mean I have them projected at seven point eight

530
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 5: nine wins. You know, they had the fourth best offensive

531
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 5: success rate. They returned fifty five percent from that group.

532
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 5: And the knock on mac Jones, at least from a

533
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 5: PFF standpoint, was that he doesn't have the ability to

534
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 5: throw from a clean pocket. I see that completely differently.

535
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 5: I checked his numbers. Efficiency moves from fifty three percent

536
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 5: to forty nine percent when he's blitzed. His completion moves

537
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 5: from seventy one percent to sixty five percent when he

538
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 5: has pressure. So I don't really see a huge drop

539
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 5: off like we'll talk about like with Bo Nicks, that's

540
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 5: a major drop off when he has hands in his face.

541
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 4: Bow nixt season then full effect, mac.

542
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 5: Jones had a nine to one TD to I in

543
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 5: t ratio with with only five drops in twenty nineteen,

544
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 5: after being thrust into the toughest portion of Alabama's schedule.

545
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 5: It's he came in and played little Sisters of the Poor.

546
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 5: I mean, he came in at the toughest part of

547
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 5: the year, you know, And I will say this, if

548
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 5: there were Heisman Ons out there this year, I probably

549
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 5: would have stepped out of the quarterback footprint. You know

550
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 5: what you're supposed to do to bet a Heisman, And

551
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 5: I probably would have put money down on Jalen Waddle

552
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 5: because not only what Waddle did on the field offensively,

553
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 5: but what he does in special teams is he's a

554
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 5: complete game changer. That's all he was as a game changer.

555
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 5: And he you know, he's just one of the many

556
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,719
Speaker 5: talented skill positions that they have there. But Wattle had

557
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 5: fifteen play action targets last year. He should get the

558
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,160
Speaker 5: lion's share of Judy's sixty. Watle had twelve screen pass

559
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 5: targets last year. He's just short of Judy's twenty. I

560
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 5: expect him to get all of Judy's play action and

561
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 5: screen pass targets. I really like Alabama, but the problem

562
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 5: is the numbers. At eight and a half, I think

563
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 5: the under is heavily juiced. I make it seven point

564
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 5: eight nine, So I agree with that, But I mean,

565
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 5: this is Alabama. If there's a college football playoff and

566
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 5: everybody's gonna have one loss right because of the season,

567
00:24:58,359 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 5: I don't know. I don't know what number is going

568
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 5: to have to be out there before I buy on

569
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 5: Alabama because you're right. They finally have stable names at

570
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 5: the coordinator positions and the collection of skill positions is

571
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 5: out of control.

572
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 2: They have that new.

573
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: Sports science facility, which is their hope is that that's

574
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 1: going to help with the injury concerns. So don't forget

575
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 1: about Naugie Harris at running back and then a four

576
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 1: or five offensive linement back led by Leatherwood who's an

577
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 1: absolute stud at tackle. So this team is obviously loaded.

578
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 1: And look, we're not gonna go extremely in depth every

579
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 1: team because look we still a month, there could be injuries,

580
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: and there's a limited slate each week, so we're gonna

581
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: have tot more time each week to go into these

582
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: teams once we talk about the actual matchups that week.

583
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: So the one thing that the SEC did do with

584
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: their schedules they maintain their rivalry. So, oh, you know,

585
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 1: the Iron Ball the Egg Bowl will still be on

586
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 1: the same weekend that we're used to on that Thanksgiving weekend.

587
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: So speaking of the Iron Bowl, let's move on to

588
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 1: Auburn bow nick season and full effect.

589
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,719
Speaker 4: Bow nixt season. Then full Effect.

590
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people out there are excited

591
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: to hear that clip many times throughout the year. So

592
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: bow Knix comes back to quarterback. Your boy Chad Morris

593
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: is gonna be calling plays. I'll be interested to see

594
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: that dynamic and how the offense works. The school position

595
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 1: players are loaded. Bo Nick should better, I mean Schwartz

596
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 1: and Williams and so they all come back. The biggest

597
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: question the d lost a ton of the NFL. Biggest

598
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: questions to me their secondary would they lose I think

599
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: four starters from the secondary, and their offensive line. They

600
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: lost all five primary starters from the offensive line. I

601
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: think bow Knicks is gonna be better. We could have

602
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: bow Knicks. He's an in full effect if that offensive

603
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: line comes together. The defense side of the ball lost

604
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 1: a lot in the front seven too. They still a

605
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: big cat Bryant, but they lost a lot to you know,

606
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 1: Brown and Davison to the NFL. And then that secondary

607
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: lost a ton. So they have work to do in Auburn.

608
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: And obviously you're never gonna have an easy schedule. Quick

609
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: thoughts on Auburn.

610
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you named all the losses they have,

611
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 5: and I completely agree. You've had your trenches completely cleared out.

612
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,360
Speaker 5: There's questions around bow Knicks here that I'll get into.

613
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 5: But you know, when you have the schedule that they

614
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 5: have in these even numbered years, it's impossible for them

615
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 5: to win the SEC. The time to play Auburn is

616
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 5: always in the odd number of years when they have

617
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 5: Georgia and Alabama coming into Jordan Harris. So definitely it's

618
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 5: a pass on me. And my projection is six point

619
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 5: three wins. They're at six point five, so it's just

620
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 5: a pass. But you know, tag on a little bit

621
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 5: more about bo Nicks. Not only is gonna be playing

622
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 5: behind an entire new offensive line. I did a little

623
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 5: like deep dive after he was ranked ninety fifth as

624
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 5: the ninety fifth rate college quarterback and that PFF article

625
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 5: and they cited the downfield throwing. So if you go

626
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 5: a little bit deeper into Nick's numbers, his efficiency moves

627
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 5: from fifty one percent to twenty five percent when he

628
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 5: has pressure. He took seventeen sacks on eighty four pass

629
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 5: attempts with pressure. You think that would, you know, get

630
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 5: better as he goes from a freshman to be in

631
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 5: a sophomore no and win to get rid of the ball,

632
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 5: I'm not taking so many sacks. And thirty four percent

633
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 5: of his passes went past the ten yard line and

634
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 5: those passes only had a completion rate of thirty six percent.

635
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 5: So you know, Auburn to me is the team to

636
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 5: buy in twenty twenty one when bow Nicks is a junior,

637
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 5: when they reload in those trenches. But as for this year,

638
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 5: it's a no play in a pass And I still

639
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 5: think we're gonna have some struggling for bo.

640
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: Nicks bo nixt season.

641
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 4: Then full effect bo.

642
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 1: Nixt season might not be in full effect, is what

643
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: you're saying. Do you have any idea?

644
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 2: How disrespectful that is?

645
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 1: What is your win? What did you make the win title?

646
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 5: I made it six point three and it's as six

647
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 5: and a half. And don't think that the addition of

648
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 5: Chad Morris is gonna do that. Guy called himself Gus

649
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,360
Speaker 5: Light for years because he took he took the Wildcat

650
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 5: in the mid two thousands, ranso running back version of

651
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 5: it in Texas high schools. And now all of a

652
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 5: sudden he works for Gust'll be thinking that it's going

653
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 5: to be the smash mouth offense. He's just a puppet

654
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:44,959
Speaker 5: for whatever Gus wants to run. It's just that if

655
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 5: Auburn's bad, he can blame it on Chad Morris. That's

656
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 5: what he's there for. So you know, Chad Morris being

657
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 5: there is actually I probably should dock a point off

658
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 5: of Auburn for that.

659
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: Blame it on the Chad as always, all right, So

660
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: let's move on to much more on Auburn in Alabama.

661
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: By the way, Alabama, Florida Old that's the only three

662
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: teams in the SEC with out back to back road

663
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: games in the schedule. Let's move on to Texas A

664
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: and M. Really intriguing team. The first thing that jumps

665
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: to mind to me when you say Texas A and

666
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: M this year experienced lots of experience for eight team

667
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: returning starters. It's year three of Fisher and his recruits.

668
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: So there's no more excuses here. I mean, obviously their schedules,

669
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: but just brutal what they faced three number one teams

670
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: last year. But you have Mond and Spiller headline the offense.

671
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: There's some talent on the outside at a tight end.

672
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: They do return four or five on the offensive line,

673
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: but it was an O line that was outside the

674
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: top one hundred and sacks. It wasn't great. Do you

675
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: get some progression there to be determined? You know, Elko

676
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: and his four two five defense. He's got two great

677
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: linebackers there. They got to replacement of Bouquet up front

678
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: who was drafted. The secondary is experienced, but they just

679
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: they just need to create more havoc, which is we

680
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: talked about that a lot last year. So this team

681
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,479
Speaker 1: is really experienced. It's an interesting team. What are your

682
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 1: thoughts on the acts.

683
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 5: And people know, Mike Elk at least those of us

684
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 5: that follow havoc and tackles for loss if you don't

685
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 5: know what havoc is if you're due to the pod.

686
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 5: Havoc is a combination of force fumbles, pass breakups get

687
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 5: same as interceptions, and tackles for loss. And we you know,

688
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 5: like to bet on defensive coordinators that are really high

689
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 5: on havoc, which is like a problem that Georgia has

690
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 5: had for years is that they're a great defense and

691
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 5: they can, you know, stop the chains, but they can't

692
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 5: take the ball away from you. And Texas A and

693
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,239
Speaker 5: M actually ranked twenty third in our HAVOC rankings last year,

694
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 5: but it was all tackles for loss PBUs. It had

695
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 5: nothing to do with taking the ball away. So that's

696
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 5: something that Elco is going to have to have to

697
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 5: kind of get back from some of his former defenses

698
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 5: that he's coached before. You would think in the third

699
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 5: year of Jimbo, because he runs that pro style offense,

700
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 5: and there's just complaints that it's you know, too hard

701
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 5: to run her Mond can't grasp it, and that Mond

702
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 5: is good outside the pocket and he's good when he's

703
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 5: on the run, which is true. That's when he's done

704
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 5: his best work and has his most highlight reels. But

705
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 5: I mean, this team returns everybody. There's no excuses for

706
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,959
Speaker 5: not knowing this offense. You return eighty percent of your

707
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 5: offense and seventy four percent of your defense. You rank

708
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 5: seventeenth in success rate on offense last year. You ranked

709
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 5: thirty three in success rate on defense last year. You

710
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 5: have everybody coming back that knows the system, so there's

711
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 5: really no excuses. And you know, I this was a

712
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 5: team that I was betting on back in January because

713
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 5: of the Cupcake schedule. The September and October was a

714
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 5: joke the Alabama and LSU was coming in later in

715
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 5: the year. They potentially we're going to go ten and

716
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 5: oh going into those games. But now you know, put

717
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 5: Florida on there, and it's going to be a battle.

718
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 5: And again, if you want to be at top of

719
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 5: the SEC West, you're going to have to beat Alabama.

720
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 5: It's what LSU's had to do in the past, It's

721
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 5: what Auburn's had to do in the past. And now

722
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 5: it's Texas A, M's and M's turn. If they want

723
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 5: to take another step up, they've got to beat Alabama.

724
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 5: So I think one thing that needs to be mentioned

725
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 5: about them. My projection is a seven point four eight,

726
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 5: So yes, I would say over seven. It's juiced a

727
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 5: little bit, but you know, it's not a huge play.

728
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 5: I think one thing that I don't like is that

729
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 5: at the Action Network we have our own home field advantages.

730
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 5: Most people just apply to and a half points. But

731
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 5: what I do is I look at the last ten

732
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 5: years of what you've done against the spread at home,

733
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 5: and if you were consistently beating book makers and odds makers,

734
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 5: then obviously your home field advantage may not be valuated correctly.

735
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 5: Texas A and M is one of those teams. I

736
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 5: had their home field advantage higher than the standard two

737
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 5: point five and I think with COVID and limited number

738
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 5: of seats, I think they really lose a big advantage

739
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 5: at home with the thirteenth man not being a full

740
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 5: thirteenth man.

741
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:23,479
Speaker 1: I totally agree there. And let's round out the SEC

742
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: West with there's a lot of change in the SEC

743
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: this year, and this is not the summer that you

744
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: want to be dealing with a lot of change. There's

745
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: a lot of new quarterbacks, there's transfer quarterbacks, there's a

746
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 1: lot of new coordinators. The three teams that we haven't

747
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: covered yet in the SEC West, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Mississippi State.

748
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: There are three of the four teams in the SEC

749
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: that have a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator.

750
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: Vandy does as well, which we'll we'll get you later,

751
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: but let's start with miss State. It's the Leach air right,

752
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 1: and you know they're gonna have the air ray. They

753
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: bring in kJ Costello, who you assume is gonna I

754
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: love kJ Costello at Stanford. Do you assume is gonna

755
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: thrive eventually in this offense at some point? Although you

756
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: know it's it's really odd. This team average one hundred

757
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: and eighty yards passing last year. They have leading returning

758
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: rusher in Hill, really unproven wide receivers. They didn't really

759
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: throw it much last year, so it's like, how is

760
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: this going to fit in? The offensive line has learned

761
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: new techniques. They didn't have a spring, and when Leech

762
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: first went to Washington State, his team sucked all year

763
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: and they pulled off a couple upsets at the end

764
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: of the year. There's a book, The System to College Football.

765
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: It's awesome read. There's a chapter in it about Leach.

766
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: The couple chapters actually, So he wants to go in

767
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 1: and establish his scheme and his system and his guys,

768
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: like he might kick off some people off the team,

769
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: so this could be a big work in product. I

770
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: want no part of this state. Early on in the year.

771
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: There's more talent than Leeches used to on the defense.

772
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: Earl Thompson comes back at middle linebacker. You have some

773
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: talent on the d line with Spencer and Pickering, but

774
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: I just think it's going to be a struggle early on.

775
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: Thoughts on miss State, Yeah, well.

776
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: I can tell you this.

777
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 5: When Reming Murphy, friend of the Pod, was able to

778
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 5: tweet out our projected lines, there was so much Mississi

779
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 5: State action going on in my timeline. I mean for

780
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 5: three days worth of Mississippi State. People are in love

781
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 5: with the Mississippi State team, the idea of the araid

782
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 5: coming to the SEC and kJ Costello running it. But

783
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 5: this is not the formula of somebody that you want

784
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,479
Speaker 5: to take right out of the gate. This is something

785
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 5: you want to you know, let Leech get his system

786
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 5: in place, let the players become accustomed to it. And

787
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 5: you couldn't have picked another program with such a stark contrast.

788
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 5: So here's the reason I'm down on Mississippi State. They

789
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 5: have fifty four percent returning production or less, and it's

790
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 5: a complete entire scheme change. Mississippi State was fifty two

791
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 5: percent run and the eleven formation fifty two percent of

792
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 5: the time they were running the ball. That is a

793
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 5: very high you know, you were running in passing downs

794
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 5: in Mississippi State and they were doing that all out

795
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:46,240
Speaker 5: of the eleven formation. Wazoo runs only the ten formation

796
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 5: empty set, and they only ran the ball eighteen percent

797
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 5: of the time, which is probably when it was you know,

798
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 5: third and eighteen or they had to do a draw

799
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 5: and just get the hell out of there. But it's

800
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 5: a huge scheme change. The run pass ratio is going

801
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 5: to go through a huge change. The eleven four formation

802
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 5: that they've always run in Missisippi State, that's gone. It's

803
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 5: going to be mostly ten. And you know, if you

804
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 5: don't fit in, like Leach a system, he'll find somebody

805
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 5: that will. It's not like he's gonna bend to match

806
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 5: with the players that are already in house. So major

807
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 5: returning production, you know, changeover and the fact that this

808
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 5: scheme is just completely different and the run pass ratio

809
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 5: is completely different. I want nothing to do with Mississippi

810
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 5: State this year.

811
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe or later on in the air if you

812
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: start to see some signs they might be a really

813
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: live underdog, especially if they struggle, you might get some

814
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: value later on the air. You also defense move into

815
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: a three three five. Not the year to be doing this,

816
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: but long term it may benefit Mississippi State. Yeah.

817
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 5: So I have Mississippi State at projected at two point

818
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 5: three five, well below the four. And if you look

819
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 5: at this schedule and who they have to face, find

820
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,760
Speaker 5: five wins for me? So I mean on Missipi State's

821
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 5: best day, you're pushing four. But to me, you know,

822
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 5: I projected two point three five and that's going to

823
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 5: be Arkansas. There's not many wins on this schedule.

824
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: All right, So let's move on to ole Miss two. Yea. Again,

825
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: a lot of changes here. It's the lane train is

826
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 1: coming in. It is worth noting that they were all

827
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: in five in one possession games last year, so you

828
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 1: would think that that's, you know, a team that's gonna

829
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: get a positive regression bump, it would be all missed.

830
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 1: But they've changed everything. You have a new offensive coordinator

831
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 1: coming in, and you know, obviously this is a really

832
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 1: run heavy team last year, Kiffen wants to be more balanced,

833
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 1: throw it more. You have Plumbley who's just a superstar

834
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: runner at quarterback. Does he really fit with that offense?

835
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: I don't know. Are you gonna see corral eventually? So

836
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:39,280
Speaker 1: there's questions there as well. You also have new defensive

837
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 1: coordinator code against coordinators coming in that DJ Jerkin actually

838
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 1: is one of them. They're gonna be moving to a

839
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: four man front. I believe the secondar needs to just

840
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,240
Speaker 1: get a lot better. They have a lot of new pieces.

841
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 1: The price transfer hurts at cornerback. So again, a lot

842
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: of transition and change, and I'm not sure that the

843
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: roster fits the steam change right away. Just like Mississippi State,

844
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 1: So I see a lot of parallels between these two teams.

845
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: Thoughts on ale Miss, we.

846
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 5: Could sit here and site what the roster looks like

847
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 5: right now, but daily it's changing, like there's people coming

848
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 5: in and out of this program. Still Lanes making changes

849
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:10,760
Speaker 5: as much as he can. And is John Reice Plumbley

850
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 5: the guy? I mean, I've seen Kiffin work with some

851
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 5: dual threat quarterbacks at Bama and FAU, and he had

852
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 5: some success there, but I mean, really, the throwing from

853
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 5: plumb Lee is pre sparse, So that's something that you know,

854
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 5: Kiffin will have to work around until he finds somebody

855
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 5: to run quarterback for him. You know, my projection on

856
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 5: ole Miss was five point one two and I got

857
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 5: torn up you know about that. It's like, why are

858
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 5: you so high on ole Miss? And you already stated

859
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 5: what it is because their second order win total gave

860
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,240
Speaker 5: them such a huge pr bump because they were unlucky

861
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 5: in so many games last year that if you know,

862
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 5: if you have regression to the mean, they're gonna win

863
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 5: one of those five games that they lost last.

864
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 2: Year and maybe more.

865
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 4: Uh.

866
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 5: You know, the one thing about them is, you know,

867
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 5: the defense has to get better. They're tackling the Their

868
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 5: tackling was poor. They have so many mistackles, one of

869
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 5: the worst in the SEC. And they don't disguise their blitzes.

870
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 5: They ran the three four last year and every time

871
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 5: they ran a blitz it got picked up. So you know,

872
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 5: maybe coach can help out with that. But this was

873
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 5: just not a very well coached team. For having three

874
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 5: head coaches on the staff, it just wasn't a very

875
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 5: well head coached team. And the middle portion of the

876
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 5: schedule is winnable. And if you're going to go over four,

877
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 5: which I would because I project them at five, there's

878
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 5: Vandy Arkansas after after just a crazy start to the

879
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 5: season with the toughest teams in the SEC, you get

880
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 5: Vandy Arkansas South Carolina. Right in the middle of the schedule,

881
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 5: you get Mississippi State at home and the Egg Bowl

882
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 5: at the end of the year.

883
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 2: That probably could get you to five, you know, and worse,

884
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 2: push it to four.

885
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 3: I hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I

886
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 3: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

887
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 3: podcast network. Locked On as a daily podcast on your

888
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 3: favorite team.

889
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

890
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 2: On of the Dallas MATTERCKE.

891
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 1: Welcome everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast Let's Go.

892
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

893
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

894
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,760
Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

895
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team, subscribe to your locked on podcast.

896
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: There you have it, and then again, much more on

897
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: all these teams as we get closer to September twenty six.

898
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 1: But we just really wanted to We wanted to talk

899
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 1: about it personally all these teams and then also wet

900
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 1: your appetite and just get your your juices going and

901
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: your brain moving. For all these teams in the SEC.

902
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: The last team in the SEC last end certainly least,

903
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: should I say, is Arkansas, who has lost nineteen consecutive

904
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 1: conference losses. New OSC new DC transfer quarterback in so

905
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: a lot of changes. I'm not even gonna. I don't

906
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 1: really even cap Arkansas because I just I don't like

907
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 1: what I'm doing sc previous I'm like, all right, I

908
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: don't even have to do anything for you because I

909
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: just rely on you and just go on with you.

910
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: Say so, take it away.

911
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 2: Woo pig suy absolute.

912
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 1: Dumpster fined dumps for fine. I don't know how we

913
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: win a game the rest of the year.

914
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 2: Just blow a program up, give us.

915
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: A death sentence.

916
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 5: Collins talking Razorback football. Well, I thought the project I

917
00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 5: had the projection at like point ninety eight, right, I

918
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 5: thought the they could maybe squeak out a game. The

919
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 5: numbers mathematically put him at point ninet eight, but it

920
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 5: came out at two. The chance of Arkansas, who has

921
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 5: won one conference game since twenty sixteen, just one.

922
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: Oh wow, you got to be shitting me. The chances of.

923
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 5: Them winning three conference games this year is impossible, and

924
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 5: it went total of two. It was an easy play

925
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 5: taking under two and one and a half. I still

926
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 5: think it's a play, just not as high a volume. Obviously,

927
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 5: if I make the projection just lower than one, then

928
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 5: you should take under one and a half. I love

929
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 5: the direction of the Razorbacks. I think Sam Pittman is

930
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 5: playing that CEO role perfectly. He's going to be, you know,

931
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 5: somebody that's there for all the players. And he's a

932
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 5: massive recruiter. The recruiting is really ramptive over the next

933
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 5: two years. Here, getting Barry Otam as our defensive coordinator

934
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 5: was the steal of this century. Missouri should not have

935
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 5: let him go. He had some bad luck and he

936
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 5: lost the team. Last year excellent defensive coordinator. Missouri's defense

937
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 5: was fantastic. Last year, Arkansas got a steal and getting

938
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 5: Burry Otam. We'll see how he stays. And Kendle Brow's

939
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 5: our offensive coordinator. Who knows how long he's gonna stay.

940
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 5: He seemed to can't stay in one position, you know,

941
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 5: year after year. But you know, Flipe Franks under center.

942
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 5: I just think he's there to take hits until this

943
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 5: offensive line matures a little bit more, until kJ Jefferson

944
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 5: grasped the brills off the Kendall Brows offense. And I

945
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 5: think we'll look at Arkansas next year. Under one and

946
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 5: a half is the play. It's juiced in some places,

947
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 5: so shop around Arkansas. Under one and a half is

948
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 5: the play. Vanderbilt's not on the schedule. That's the only

949
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 5: team you could be, so under one half should be

950
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 5: pretty easy.

951
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they have some talented pieces on that offensive.

952
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: Frank's coming in. He got boyd at running back, deep

953
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 1: wide receivers. But the old line is just undersized. They

954
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: lost their bet their three best defenders, relying on a

955
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:43,760
Speaker 1: lot of transfers and again no spring, all these changes,

956
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: it's just not ideal. But I'm glad to hear that

957
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: you're optimistic about the future. All right, So let's move

958
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: on to the SEC East and in the SECS, George

959
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: is going for its fourth straight division titles, so we'll

960
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 1: start there. They had the number one recruiting class in

961
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 1: the nation, which is worth noting. They reloaded. Obviously it's

962
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 1: your pick your splitting hairs here between Georgia and Clemson

963
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 1: in Alabama, but Georgia actually graded out number one. Some

964
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 1: changes here, So this is the new offensive coordinator. You

965
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 1: have a new quarterback, so Todd Mounkin, who wants to

966
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: run a more spread out deep passing with more deep

967
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 1: shots and uh, you know, spread option attack, and which

968
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 1: is different than George like very conservative Georgia. How is

969
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: Kirby smart? Is gonna let him go? With the offense?

970
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 1: You have Jamie Newman, the Waight transfer is going to

971
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 1: be quarterback you would think would fit in that system.

972
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 1: But what's that going to look like? That transition and

973
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: how's that going to mess with Kirby? The you know,

974
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: the the defense is loaded. It's one of the best

975
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: defenses in the the nation last year, and they bring

976
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,919
Speaker 1: almost everyone back, and they rotate a ton of guys

977
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: and they just bring back so much. The defense is

978
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: going to be really good again. The question for me

979
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: with Georgia all comes down to what does this offense

980
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: look like, how long does it take for it to

981
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 1: fin its identity and execution and how early can they

982
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 1: do that? Because the defense is going to be great.

983
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: Thoughts on Georgia.

984
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 2: George is projected at eight point twenty nine wins.

985
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 5: Their win total is set at eight and a half

986
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 5: under his juice to minus one twenty five and I

987
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 5: think that's all appropriate. Now let's talk about you know,

988
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 5: Georgia is returning eighty percent of a defense that was

989
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 5: fifteenth in success rate. And you know, there's two things

990
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 5: that this team lacks to win a national championship over

991
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 5: the last three years. And we will see with a

992
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 5: new offensive coordinator and you know, Constant Kirby tweaking on

993
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 5: the defense if we get up this but on the

994
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 5: offensive side of the ball, it's scoring points in the

995
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 5: red zone. It's a reason Jim Chaney was let go

996
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 5: and off Tennessee it's a reason we've had a change

997
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 5: from last year from Cooley. We have to score points

998
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 5: in the red zone. Defensive side of the ball, yes,

999
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 5: we have to score touchdowns, not field goals. And Georgia's defense,

1000
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:51,919
Speaker 5: it's the same thing every year. It's the HAVOC rating.

1001
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,879
Speaker 5: The havoc fell really off a cliff two years ago.

1002
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 5: They couldn't force a fumble for their life. Last year,

1003
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 5: their overall HAVEOC rating got up to forty first, but

1004
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 5: that was because of tackles for loss and mostly pass breakups.

1005
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 5: Had nothing to do with forced fumbles, which I think

1006
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 5: was in the single digits last year. So it's again

1007
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 5: same thing. You see a Georgia defense creating havoc. You

1008
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 5: see a Georgia offense scoring in the red zone, then

1009
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 5: you have a national championship team. But we haven't seen

1010
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 5: that yet. So Jamie Newman, I think is going to

1011
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 5: be a home run. You know, some of the stats

1012
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 5: are coming out on him. He was second in the

1013
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 5: nation and tight window passing right behind Joe Burrow, and

1014
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 5: then there was just falling off a cliff of all

1015
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,479
Speaker 5: the other quarterbacks in college football. I think Jamie Newman

1016
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,239
Speaker 5: is going to be just fine. It's a matter of

1017
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 5: scoring points in the red zone.

1018
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1019
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: I do love this defense. I mean the counts one

1020
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: of the best safeties in all of college football. They've

1021
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 1: experienced corners, and then you got Monty Rice at linebacker.

1022
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 1: Jordan Davis is the stet up front, so the dan's

1023
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: going to be there. It comes down to offense and

1024
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: how that all works out. So I completely agree with you.

1025
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 1: By the way, Rodrigo, our boy Rodrigo has gone the kicker.

1026
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 1: But they have this kid who I'm excited to watch.

1027
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 1: Apparently I have to double check to see if he's

1028
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: going to be the starter. But they have this freshman

1029
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: who apparently kicked the fifty nine yard field goal over

1030
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: the upright in high school. So maybe we have our

1031
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 1: next star kicker at Georgia. Had to give my special

1032
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 1: teams nugget in there, all right, So let's move on

1033
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: to Florida. I loved Florida before the schedule changes and

1034
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: then they were maybe gonna get Alabama. Then they didn't,

1035
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: so but they have to go to Texas A and

1036
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 1: m not as bad as getting Bama. Then there was

1037
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: the rumors that their star wide receivers were all gonna

1038
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: sit out well, apparently they're all gonna play, you know,

1039
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 1: Tony and company. They all came out and said they

1040
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 1: are going to play Kyle Trask. Arguably they're the best

1041
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 1: SEC Day one quarterback, which I think helps this is

1042
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 1: you know, Dan Mullen, this is his time and grant them.

1043
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 1: They have the continuity on the staff, they have the

1044
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: quarterback returning. These are all the things that I love

1045
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 1: about Florida this year. They do have to replace some pieces,

1046
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 1: some NFL pieces, their corner, their two best defensive line

1047
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: and all three defensive linemen. Actually, but you know three

1048
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 1: NFL draft picks that were really productive. They have to

1049
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 1: replace them. There's still questions about the offensive line. But

1050
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 1: I think this maybe this is the year Florida can

1051
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 1: get Georgia. And if they can, and if you believe that,

1052
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: then I think that there's some value on taking Florida

1053
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: to win the SEC. I saw some twelve to one,

1054
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 1: which is what they were to win the national title

1055
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,720
Speaker 1: like before all of this, So I have some Florida

1056
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: twelve to one to win the SEC Ogatis. What are

1057
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 1: your thoughts on Florida.

1058
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean really Trask has to have his best

1059
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 5: day of the year against Georgia if they're going to

1060
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,360
Speaker 5: beat Georgia. And that's the problem with Trask is that

1061
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 5: he had nine big time throws last year and he

1062
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 5: had twenty two turnover worthy plays. Now, maybe with a

1063
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 5: little bit of seasoning, in a little bit more snaps,

1064
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 5: maybe that that will correct itself. But his efficiency downfield

1065
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 5: was not good last year whatsoever. It fell off a cliff.

1066
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 5: If you look at any passes that were completed over

1067
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 5: ten yards, trast efficiency was one of the worst of

1068
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 5: the nation. You know, like I agree with you, the

1069
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 5: game against Georgia is really what you decide the East.

1070
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 5: I know there's props out there for the SEC for

1071
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 5: the national championship, but really what I think a gambler

1072
00:46:57,920 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 5: should be looking for is in that head to head

1073
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 5: against or if you can find a Florida plus one fifty,

1074
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 5: that's worth a play because that would be the number

1075
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 5: that I would buy for Georgia to win the SEC East.

1076
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 5: And in my opinion, these are the only two that

1077
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,359
Speaker 5: can win the SEC East. So if you could see

1078
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 5: a game of the year spot, I know they're up

1079
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 5: at DraftKings and they're up at some other places. You

1080
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 5: see plus one fifty against Georgia and a look aheadline

1081
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 5: on the money line. That's the number that I would

1082
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,280
Speaker 5: take instead of buying an SEC East or an SEC Crown,

1083
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 5: I would do that number. But I'm a little nervous

1084
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 5: about backing Trash here. You know that he puts himself

1085
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 5: in a really bad position. I thought mac Jones was

1086
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 5: a little bit of flavor of Trass, but it's actually

1087
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 5: not true. I mean, mac Jones is a much more

1088
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 5: efficient passer, and he's much more even when he has

1089
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 5: pressure in his face. There's not that big of a

1090
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,400
Speaker 5: drop off. It's completely different with Kyle Trass. So you know,

1091
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 5: we'll see what happens here with the quarterback position. But

1092
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 5: you know, Florida plus one fifty on the money line

1093
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 5: against Georgia is where I would start to bet them.

1094
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 5: Their win total is absolutely correct.

1095
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the team in my backyard, Kentucky.

1096
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,400
Speaker 1: Really interesting team. There's no more Lin Boden. How important

1097
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 1: was he to the offense. He was like the leading

1098
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 1: pass of the leading receiver, the leading rusher. You have

1099
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 1: Joey Gatewood, the Auburn transfer, his waiver still up in

1100
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 1: the air. You know, you have Terry Wilson who might

1101
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 1: not be fully healthy yet. Then if not, if you

1102
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 1: don't get any you know, Gatewood or Wilson healthy, you

1103
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 1: have Sawyer Smith back again, remember him, So it's like,

1104
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: what is this What is the passing attack going to?

1105
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,399
Speaker 1: Look like? They can't duplicate what Boden did last year.

1106
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: For the offense, the rushing attack is really good, right,

1107
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 1: you have Smoke and Rose back at running back, so

1108
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 1: really good deep running back court. In their offensive line

1109
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: is one of the best in the country. I mean

1110
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: they could have two or three potential first team All

1111
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 1: s CC offensive lineman starting with their center Drake Jackson

1112
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 1: was one of the best in the country. They have

1113
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 1: a really experienced d They did lose two of their

1114
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: starting linebackers and Daniel and Oates, so it's to a

1115
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 1: medical concern, which was a big loss. But Bohannon's a

1116
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: start up front. Boogie Watson's awesome at linebacker their past

1117
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,320
Speaker 1: he was actually second in the nation last year, and

1118
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: it was like an inexperienced group coming into the year.

1119
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 1: But I think it was a little misleading. They benefited

1120
00:49:01,960 --> 00:49:03,959
Speaker 1: from a lot of weather like they were playing games

1121
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 1: in like monsoons all year long. I think it was

1122
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: a little misleading, but the d should be solid the

1123
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: offensive line. What does the offense look like? Thoughts of Kentucky.

1124
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 5: Well, I love the defense there. You know, they were

1125
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:16,479
Speaker 5: amazing two years ago and we might get that again.

1126
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 5: And they returned seventy eight percent of a group that

1127
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 5: ranked forty sixth in success rate.

1128
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 2: That's fantastic. That's sec defense.

1129
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 5: You can hang with the big boys playing that kind

1130
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 5: of defense. And the question marks really come on the

1131
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 5: offensive side of the ball. And you named off all

1132
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 5: the quarterbacks. I mean, fourteen months ago, I was in

1133
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 5: love with Joey Gatewood at Auburn. I thought he was

1134
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 5: going to be the next Cam Newton. I thought he

1135
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 5: was going to be able to be a dual threat.

1136
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 5: Monster didn't work out. BONNICKX ended his Auburn career and

1137
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 5: now he's up here competing for the job. Terry Wilson

1138
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,800
Speaker 5: has had flashes for US two years ago. Knee injury,

1139
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:49,360
Speaker 5: what in game two last year? And you know Sawyer

1140
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 5: Smith had a shoulder and wrist issues nagging him all

1141
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 5: last year. So it's just like a it's like a

1142
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 5: mash unit. And then there's Gatewood, who never really got

1143
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 5: his window but I mean a year ago, at this time,

1144
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 5: nobody was saying Lynn Boden, nobody was even talking about him,

1145
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 5: and Kentucky found a way to utilize him and making

1146
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 5: the most dynamic player in college football.

1147
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 2: So I love the defense here.

1148
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,799
Speaker 5: I think it's going to support the offense until they

1149
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,560
Speaker 5: find until they find the rhythm.

1150
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 2: And let's not forget they have the ray guy punter

1151
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 2: Max Duffy returns to this team.

1152
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 1: Oh look at you special teams doggets.

1153
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 5: I didn't hear you say it, So I had to

1154
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 5: jump on the special teams. There's not many chances I

1155
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 5: get to do that. But you know, for me, the

1156
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 5: number I have is four point seventy three. I see

1157
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 5: Kentucky listening at under five plus win fifteen. That juice

1158
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 5: does not match what it should be. According to my projection,

1159
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 5: under five should be more like minus one twenty five

1160
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 5: minus one thirty. So I do like the Kentucky under five.

1161
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,399
Speaker 5: And the one place that I'm really looking to buy

1162
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 5: into Kentucky is in Alabama's flattest spot of the year.

1163
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:48,800
Speaker 5: In between Alabama playing LSU, their biggest rivalry, and then Auburn,

1164
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:52,800
Speaker 5: their other biggest rivalry, They're hosting Kentucky a huge sleepy spot.

1165
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 5: All you can do is giving me the eleven AM

1166
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,240
Speaker 5: Jefferson pilot slot, and that'll be perfect for a Kentucky upset.

1167
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 5: But you know, Kentucky going down to Tuscaloosa, that to

1168
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 5: me is the spot of the year. You can take

1169
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 5: a game of the year on it now, or you

1170
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 5: can wait until Kentucky potentially, you know, struggles offensively out

1171
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 5: of the gate against Auburn, So you know that's the

1172
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 5: spot of the year.

1173
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna buy on Kentucky and which your win when

1174
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 1: you make the win total.

1175
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:16,399
Speaker 5: I make the win total for Kentucky at four point

1176
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 5: seventy three, so the juice isn't correct on them whatsoever.

1177
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 5: It should be under five minus one twenty, but at

1178
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 5: plus one fifteen I would buy it all the way

1179
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 5: to minus one twenty.

1180
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here. Well, let's get through

1181
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 1: the last four teams in just you know, a few minutes. Here.

1182
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 1: I don't think in either of these teams has a

1183
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 1: shot to win. The one that you some well you

1184
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 1: know their fans at least would argue, hey, we have

1185
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 1: a shot at Tennessee. So we'll start there. A lot

1186
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 1: of improvement at the end of last year. Their last

1187
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:42,879
Speaker 1: six games, I don't think, especially on the defensive side

1188
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 1: of the ball. You know, nobody, nobody scored I think

1189
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 1: more than twenty two points. Their offensive line could have

1190
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 1: like four or five stars starting. They're waiting on the

1191
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: waiver of cade Mad's I don't that's it was denied

1192
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:57,359
Speaker 1: and then appealed. But their offensive line could be really good.

1193
00:51:57,440 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 1: It's gonna come out of the quarterback quick thoughts on

1194
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 1: the balls, Well.

1195
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 5: Jared on Tono loses his top receivers, there's you know,

1196
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 5: he really didn't have a huge drop off an efficiency

1197
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 5: between when he was blitzed when he wasn't blitzed, So

1198
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 5: that's the good news. But he's just serviceable as a quarterback.

1199
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 5: So I expect South Carolina and Missoo to load the

1200
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 5: box and force passing on these new targets early in

1201
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 5: the season who they start off with, to force Garantano

1202
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 5: to find his rhythm with these new wide receiver looks,

1203
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 5: you know, and the offense looks to improve. I mean,

1204
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 5: they ranked eighty fourth and success rate last year, and

1205
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 5: they returned plenty of experience on the offensive line, Like

1206
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 5: you mentioned, Tennessee is listed at you know, under five

1207
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,399
Speaker 5: minus one fifteen. My projection is four point sixty seven,

1208
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 5: So if you had to play it, I would take

1209
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 5: the under. But you know, Tennessee's not a team I'm

1210
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 5: going to be playing on this year. It would just

1211
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 5: need I would love to have some of Kentucky's defense

1212
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 5: and some of Kentucky's skill positions what they've done at Tennessee,

1213
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 5: and you have a.

1214
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 2: Team that could really contend.

1215
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 1: Who do you make the win total?

1216
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 5: Win total on Tennessee is projected at four point sixty

1217
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:55,959
Speaker 5: seven and the over under is under five at minus

1218
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 5: one fifteen.

1219
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:58,959
Speaker 1: I'll let you take this one. Just what's your number?

1220
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:00,760
Speaker 1: And any quick thoughts on South Carolina?

1221
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 5: Meg it four point h nine, which is higher than

1222
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,239
Speaker 5: the three point five. It's a juice three point five

1223
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,080
Speaker 5: right now to take the over. I like the addition

1224
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 5: of Mike Bobo as the new offensive coordinator, but I

1225
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 5: don't like Ryan Hilensky being his quarterback because Alenski's average

1226
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 5: depth of a pass with seven yards the kid is

1227
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 5: captain checked down right. He will not throw it past

1228
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 5: ten yards down the field. He wasn't protected very much either,

1229
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:23,880
Speaker 5: But you know, Bobo's the new occene. If you know

1230
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 5: anything from watching Colorado State football. Under Bobo, we're going deep,

1231
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:28,320
Speaker 5: We're going straight.

1232
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:29,439
Speaker 2: Down the field. We're throwing it deep.

1233
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 5: Helenski, you know, his efficiency dropped from forty eight percent

1234
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 5: down to twenty six percent when he had pressure. That's

1235
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 5: something he's going to have to change. He's going to

1236
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 5: have to throw it farther down the field. And the

1237
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,839
Speaker 5: defense returns seventy two percent of a group that ranked

1238
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 5: fifty seventh in success. Right, Listen, mus Champs ass is

1239
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 5: on the line.

1240
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 4: Right.

1241
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 5: If he doesn't make a bowl header, he doesn't make

1242
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 5: this is it. He's done and he will never coach

1243
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:50,359
Speaker 5: in the SEC as a head coach again. So mus

1244
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:52,879
Speaker 5: Champs under a lot of pressure here. You know, for him,

1245
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 5: it's just his his mode of style. The defense is

1246
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 5: more worried about creating havoc than they are tackling. They

1247
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,279
Speaker 5: have tons of mistackles, but they're also always trying to,

1248
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 5: you know, punch the ball out, high risk, high reward

1249
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 5: type of defense. And it's just not working out. So

1250
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 5: we'll see how they go. I don't like him from

1251
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 5: an offensive standpoint at all.

1252
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: Moving on to Missouri, the Bowl. Bad has lifted, which

1253
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 1: is a good thing. Drinkwitzer starts, you're gonna have a

1254
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 1: new offense running, but a no huddle spread is what

1255
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,280
Speaker 1: they want to The interesting thing with Missouri their offense

1256
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: was so bad last year they had three offensive linemen

1257
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:23,839
Speaker 1: end up on NFL rosters. You don't really consider their

1258
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 1: offensive line last year any good. Their defense was really good.

1259
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 1: It didn't really get much pressure, but that four two

1260
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 1: five was really effective. Drink What's kept their defensive coordinator,

1261
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 1: so the defense should look a pretty similar Nick boltens

1262
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 1: to study at linebacker. It's a three safety base d Yeah,

1263
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: quarterback is a question after they lost ac which was

1264
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 1: an unfortunate loss, but they've returned thirteen in their top

1265
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 1: sixteen tackle should still be a decent defense. And I

1266
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 1: believe Sean Robinson, the TCU treacher, was probably gonna be

1267
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 1: starting quarterback. Any thoughts on Missouri and your number there?

1268
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 5: Listen Drinkwitz's he ends every practice by commenting how inconsistent

1269
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 5: the offense is. He's blaming the scheme and the playbook.

1270
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 5: And it's called a pro tempo scheme that he brought

1271
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:05,279
Speaker 5: in from app State. This he was using the same

1272
00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:08,360
Speaker 5: excuse during spring practice when they got a couple practices in, like,

1273
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:10,640
Speaker 5: we're just not able to grab this off this offense.

1274
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 5: I think he's already making excuses. That doesn't bode well.

1275
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:15,719
Speaker 5: They're at two and a half. My projection for them

1276
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 5: is two point seventy five, So there's not really an

1277
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:20,360
Speaker 5: actionable item here. From a gambling standpoint, it's just a

1278
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 5: team that I don't want to I don't want to back.

1279
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 5: I mean, they're claiming they're gonna they're going to hold

1280
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,400
Speaker 5: their starting quarterback until kickoff against Alabama. Well, Alabama's going

1281
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 5: to route you so bad you're gonna end up playing

1282
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 5: every quarterback in there. So it doesn't matter really who

1283
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 5: starts the game. You know, Ryan Walter stays back as

1284
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 5: the DC with Barry Otam moving on to Arkansas being fired.

1285
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 5: Moving on to Arkansas sixty four percent returning production on defense,

1286
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 5: but we'll see how much of that defense was actually

1287
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 5: coming out of Barry odoms leadership or how much of

1288
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 5: it was Ryan Walter. So it's certainly his time to

1289
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 5: shine easily. If you look at this schedule, this is

1290
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 5: a one and four record through the first start of

1291
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 5: the season. The two remaining winnable games is Mississippi State

1292
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 5: and South Carolina. Both of those games are on the road,

1293
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 5: so you know, Missouri getting the three wins I think

1294
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 5: would be you know, an over achievement for them.

1295
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:03,600
Speaker 1: And lastly, we obviously have to keep Vandy for last.

1296
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,080
Speaker 1: The least experienced quarterback groom I've ever seen in my life.

1297
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 1: I think they won a true freshman gentually start new

1298
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 1: OFFENSI the quarteror new defensive cordator Ted Roof comes in

1299
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 1: going to change the D as well. It's a really

1300
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 1: experienced D. But they sucked last year. And it's funny

1301
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 1: they lost you know, they have true freshman quarterback. They

1302
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 1: lost you know, Keishon Vaughan, who was like they're everything

1303
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:23,840
Speaker 1: on offense. They lost Lipscomb, who was their best receiver.

1304
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 1: I don't know what this team is awful. You don't

1305
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 1: think they won a game, right, I.

1306
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 5: Mean it was one of the first win totals. I

1307
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 5: bet it was under one and a half. It's down

1308
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 5: to one now. My projection for them is point three

1309
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 5: to three. Vandy announced suspension of practice due to COVID breakout,

1310
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 5: so I mean they've been sidelined a little bit because

1311
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 5: of that, and their offensive returning production is at thirty

1312
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 5: five percent, and there's just a question market every single position.

1313
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 5: It's not even quarterback, it's everywhere. Defense a little bit different.

1314
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 5: They returned ninety three percent, but they ranked one hundred

1315
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 5: and eleventh and success rate. That doesn't put confidence in

1316
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 5: me that this group is going to be able to

1317
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 5: change much. They've got to play more efficient football. No

1318
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:58,880
Speaker 5: Arkansas on the schedule, so I don't know where the

1319
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 5: win is going to come Fromsissippi State is on the road.

1320
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:04,440
Speaker 5: That's your most winnable game if you have a secondary,

1321
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 5: But I mean your most winnable game is on the road,

1322
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 5: and Arkansas is not here. So I don't know how

1323
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 5: you get to two wins. I know it's juiced, but

1324
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 5: under one is still a huge play because these guys

1325
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 5: getting the two wins would be would make Derek Mason

1326
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:15,279
Speaker 5: coach of the year.

1327
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 1: Wow. All right, no love for Vanny from you, and

1328
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 1: you're not gonna find any from me. All right, So

1329
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:24,919
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1330
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1331
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 1: All right. So first down and we'll stay the reasoning

1332
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 1: for later. Just get the people out there that are looking.

1333
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 1: You know, they don't want to bet too much money,

1334
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty, so they had that one sec

1335
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: win total.

1336
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 5: I'm gonna Mississippi State under four. I don't see five

1337
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 5: wins on the schedule, the scheme change. This team is

1338
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 5: in way too much transition with a coach that is

1339
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 5: not willing to work. He wants his style implemented. He's

1340
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 5: not going to cater to you, and that's going to

1341
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 5: equal a lot of losses in your ones. So give

1342
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 5: me Missippi State under.

1343
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: All right, moving on to second down, Let's play a

1344
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 1: game here. Take SEC team that we think will have

1345
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 1: to finish with the best against the spread record at

1346
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 1: the end of the year. If either of us win,

1347
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 1: will put a couple hundred bucks out, the other person

1348
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 1: has to pay that person. All the other teams are

1349
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 1: available for you, guys to pick. All you do is

1350
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 1: go leave a five star review about the pot and

1351
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: then end with one of the teams that we didn't pick.

1352
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 1: If you win, you get the money. So cold, I'll

1353
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 1: let you pick first. So you're going with I'm.

1354
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 2: Going with Arkansas. I think that they're wow.

1355
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 5: I think odds makers are going to think this is

1356
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 5: last year's team, I think this is going to be

1357
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 5: They think that this is the team from last year

1358
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 5: that is not motivated, not focused, the team that hasn't

1359
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 5: won a conference game since twenty sixteen. But I'm telling you,

1360
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 5: the Razorbacks are under new management. They're listening to Sam Pittman.

1361
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:44,320
Speaker 5: They love Sam Pittman, they love their coordinators. They're all

1362
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 5: feel like they're there for each other. As a complete

1363
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 5: contrast about what was going on at the end of

1364
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 5: Chad Morris's days with Nick Starkle wearing biaber shirts with

1365
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 5: Club Dub and the dance and losing to San Jose

1366
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 5: State by one hundred.

1367
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:56,439
Speaker 2: That shit's all out the door.

1368
00:58:56,840 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 5: Arkansas will be under They're not going to win, but

1369
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 5: they will be underrated and how much fight they're gonna

1370
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 5: have and it may take oddsmakers a while to adjust

1371
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 5: that number on them.

1372
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 1: All Right, Arkansas has taken I'm taking Florida. Everything that

1373
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 1: I'm focused on this year is that continuity. It's a

1374
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: staff I love, you know, it's maybe the best quarterback

1375
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 1: in the conference. I'm Beth when the SEC so I'll

1376
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: roll with Florida. All the other teams are available, So

1377
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: go leave a review for the Action Network podcast. All right,

1378
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 1: moving on to third down. Before we get out of here,

1379
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 1: let's get a little fcs or no.

1380
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 2: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's time

1381
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:41,800
Speaker 2: to play FC yes or no.

1382
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 1: Look, I didn't dive into this game yet. I'm going

1383
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 1: to let you do so. So Austin P against Central

1384
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 1: Arkansas on Saturday night.

1385
00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 5: As we're here, Austin P plus three. Now, there's some

1386
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:02,959
Speaker 5: other shops out there that have a little bit higher number.

1387
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:07,240
Speaker 5: To me, that number is crazy. So we're recording this

1388
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 5: on a Wednesday. So as I talk, you know, there

1389
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 5: could be COVID outbreaks, which there already has been at

1390
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 5: Austin P. Excuse me, the Hurricane Laura could take a

1391
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 5: turn and really goes straight for Montgomery right now, Montgomery's

1392
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 5: really kind of on the outside skirts after it hits land.

1393
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of moving pieces to this puzzle here.

1394
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 5: But I think the point spread is getting pushed because

1395
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:28,440
Speaker 5: Austin Peace head coach Mark Hutsmith decided to resign in

1396
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 5: the middle of July. That was after they had eleven

1397
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 5: COVID test positive and then immediately a guy that wins

1398
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:36,640
Speaker 5: eleven games for Austin P last year and takes him

1399
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 5: to the FCS quarterfinals. He decides that he's going to

1400
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 5: dismiss himself as head coach and saying that he needs

1401
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:43,400
Speaker 5: to spend more time with family. So there's really a

1402
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 5: lot going on there. The person that took over as

1403
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 5: Marquise Lovings, he's a defensive coordinator, he's the interim head coach. Now,

1404
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 5: the full entire coaching staff is still intact. So as

1405
01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 5: I see this number, and let's talk about power ratings

1406
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 5: real quick, Sagarin if we would have base this game

1407
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 5: off of Sagaran last year, this should be Austin P

1408
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 5: nine at minus nine.

1409
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 4: And a half.

1410
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:04,200
Speaker 5: Now, if you go through all the things that I

1411
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 5: go through in the offseason where it comes to second

1412
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 5: order win total in returning production, I made this game

1413
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 5: Austin P minus three and a half. And I think

1414
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 5: there's two things that are really plugging the steam on

1415
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:16,360
Speaker 5: this from a public perception about this game. Because Central

1416
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:18,560
Speaker 5: Arkansas is a good team and they want to play

1417
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 5: everybody and they want to be known. But they're not

1418
01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 5: Austin P. They're not a quarter final FCS team. They're

1419
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 5: not I mean, Austin P has been fantastic for years,

1420
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,360
Speaker 5: and so I think what's going on is is everybody's

1421
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 5: looking at the Hudspeth departure, the COVID outbreaks that happened

1422
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 5: in the beginning of July, and they're just betting on

1423
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:37,800
Speaker 5: Central Arkansas. We'll see how that goes. I think the

1424
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 5: number is completely outrageous and deserves it. But let's talk

1425
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 5: about you know, the Marquise Lovings is the interim head coach.

1426
01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 5: Now he was the defensive coordinator. The offensive coordinator stays

1427
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 5: in place, and we have to talk. You and I

1428
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 5: used to talk about this before. What was Urban meyerworth

1429
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 5: to the point spread for Ohio State when he got

1430
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 5: suspended for three games? How much was his impact? And

1431
01:01:57,880 --> 01:01:59,880
Speaker 5: I think you and I decided that it was really

1432
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 5: two points against the spread. So why is you know,

1433
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 5: Hudspeth's departure moving this thing like six seven points? That's

1434
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 5: absolutely ridiculous. So, you know, from a ex's and O standpoint,

1435
01:02:10,600 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 5: Central Arkansas has eighteen returning starters. Austin p has sixteen

1436
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 5: returning starters. So there's a lot of familiar faces from

1437
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 5: on both sides of the ball for this game. And

1438
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 5: they played last year a game that Central Arkansas was

1439
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 5: trailing the entire time, even though Austin P quarterback Jemiah

1440
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 5: Oateswell got hurt like in the second series of the game,

1441
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:29,840
Speaker 5: and Austin P had a problem putting any points up

1442
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:32,360
Speaker 5: because he was hurt and taken out, and Central Arkansas

1443
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:34,840
Speaker 5: I had problems putting points up of their own until

1444
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 5: a forty three yard explosive pass from Braylan Smith, you know,

1445
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:40,440
Speaker 5: gave them the one point lead, and then Austin P

1446
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 5: tried to go forward on their own twenty they spotted,

1447
01:02:42,840 --> 01:02:44,440
Speaker 5: you know, Central Arkansas. So you're gonna look at the

1448
01:02:44,440 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 5: score and you're gonna say, well, Central Arkansas handed it

1449
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 5: to him.

1450
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:48,640
Speaker 2: They didn't. They didn't have the lead until middle of

1451
01:02:48,680 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter.

1452
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 5: And you know, it was kind of a flute game

1453
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:53,240
Speaker 5: when you look at turnovers and you look at you know,

1454
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 5: yards per play and yards gained. That was Austin PA's

1455
01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 5: game the entire time. And the thing about Braylan Smith

1456
01:02:59,120 --> 01:03:00,760
Speaker 5: is is he's a pocket past. He doesn't get out

1457
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 5: and run the ball anywhere, and he took sacks on

1458
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 5: about nine percent of his attempts. And he's made comments

1459
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,240
Speaker 5: this offseason like I've got to get better getting rid

1460
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 5: of the ball. I'm taking too many sacks. Ten percent

1461
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 5: taking sacks. That's a lot. And that is the strength

1462
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:14,960
Speaker 5: of the Austin Pee defense as their front seven is

1463
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 5: loaded All American candidate Joseph Smith, who's a tackle for

1464
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:22,120
Speaker 5: Lost Machine. They have a transfer coming in from Penn State.

1465
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:25,160
Speaker 5: This is Austin PE's game, so you know, get over

1466
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 5: the power rating, get over the Hudspeth portion of it,

1467
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 5: and get over what people are thinking from last year's score.

1468
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:33,320
Speaker 5: There's a hurricane on the way. Hurricane Laura is making

1469
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 5: landfall here on Thursday. It's going to whip around and

1470
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:37,960
Speaker 5: by the time it's going to be in the Tennessee,

1471
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:41,560
Speaker 5: Alabama region, this is going to be an extremely wet ballgame.

1472
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:44,360
Speaker 5: The total came out today around forty three and a half.

1473
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 5: The first half total is at twenty two. If you

1474
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 5: listen to the Central Arkansas coach Nathan Brown, he came

1475
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:53,520
Speaker 5: out after their last scrimmage and he said the defense

1476
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 5: dominated the offense, which is crazy because the offense is

1477
01:03:57,080 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 5: the strength of the Central Arkansas team. You know, Central

1478
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 5: Arkansas offense can't get anything going in their first game

1479
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:05,439
Speaker 5: of the season, and Austin p's strength is the front seven,

1480
01:04:05,520 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 5: and they have problems offensively, you throw a hurricane on

1481
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 5: top of it. I like a first half under in

1482
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 5: this game. I like an under overall and Awesome P.

1483
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:15,680
Speaker 5: This is just way too much movement on this point spread.

1484
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:17,760
Speaker 5: So that's where I'm going, awesome P in the under here.

1485
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,480
Speaker 1: Well, it's nice to take the week off and in

1486
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:23,520
Speaker 1: the SECS breakdown because that was a beautiful breakdown. Plus,

1487
01:04:23,560 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 1: it's an Arkansas it's an Arkansas college, so I figured

1488
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 1: I'd let you take in death taxes and colin fading

1489
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:30,960
Speaker 1: college football teams within the state of Arkansas. Although he's

1490
01:04:31,000 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 1: higher on starting to get high, there's optimism in arts

1491
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 1: and he took them as the team to finish with

1492
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 1: the best against spread RECORDGAINST maybe so maybe, yeah, I'm

1493
01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 1: saying that's all that we care about. So maybe there's

1494
01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:43,640
Speaker 1: some more Arkansas plays. Get ready to come through on

1495
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Speaker 1: the app and make sure you check out the right

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01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 1: up on Action App and Action Ofwork dot com as well. Subscribe.

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01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:50,880
Speaker 1: Like I said before, subscribe, rate review, leave your team

1498
01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 1: first one to leave the team we didn't say in

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01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:55,680
Speaker 1: the SEC could be eligible for that prize in the

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Speaker 1: contest We're excited to be back. We're excited to just

1501
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 1: talk college football. I'll live the awesome winds, sweat, bitch

1502
01:05:03,880 --> 01:05:07,560
Speaker 1: about the bad losses, just have it all. Voicemails will

1503
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:09,720
Speaker 1: be back, all of it. Thank you guys so much

1504
01:05:09,760 --> 01:05:13,080
Speaker 1: for listening. We truly appreciate it. We'll catch you all

1505
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:15,720
Speaker 1: next week for the ACC and Big twelve previews and

1506
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 1: the Week one betting preview. We'll catch you all later. Cheers,

1507
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 1: peace out, We're finished talking