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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: They're running again, so smooth, so sweet, stipid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 1: your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The one is left to of the wide eyed, drilled

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Speaker 1: fibus how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello ey one, and welcome back to Wondergol of the

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Speaker 2: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to you

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Speaker 2: by BET three six five. My name is Michael eebuff

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Speaker 2: enjoyed me for this. Our Copa America semi final review

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Speaker 2: is BJ, Cunningham and BJ. We've got four teams left.

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Speaker 2: I think three of them you would consider to be

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Speaker 2: let's say, not too surprising. I guess you could say

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Speaker 2: Uruguay getting there over Brazil. But and then Canada is

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Speaker 2: of course the outlier. They were ninety to one outsiders

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Speaker 2: to start the tournament. I said that I like that

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Speaker 2: bet as a long shot you like them in their

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Speaker 2: stage of elimination at eleven to one. So now we're

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Speaker 2: sitting pretty with the Maple Leaves. The only problem is

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Speaker 2: they've got to take on Argentina on Tuesday night. The

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Speaker 2: Wednesday night semi final is Uruguay and Columbia, and that's

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Speaker 2: a pickham. Obviously, the odds for Argentina and Canada are

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Speaker 2: pretty wide. Argentina sitting minus six hundred to advance to

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Speaker 2: the final. Canada is four to one. The three way

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Speaker 2: line has Argentinas a minus two to seventy five favorite.

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Speaker 2: Canada has a plus eight fifty underdog to draw is

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Speaker 2: plus three seventy five. Are reminder, there's no extra time

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Speaker 2: at Copen Marier. If it is a draw, it goes

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Speaker 2: right to penalties, as we saw with Argentina Ecuador.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean this Argentina Canada matchup I think is pretty fascinating.

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Speaker 2: The Jesse March experiment in Canada's going really well. They're

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Speaker 2: very you know, they play with some bravery, some Leeds

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Speaker 2: United Red Bull influence to their game. That was to

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Speaker 2: be expected, but they also have the talent to pull

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Speaker 2: it off against Moost teams. You'd expect that Argentina would

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Speaker 2: be a bridge too far these but they do have

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Speaker 2: the advantage of having already played Argentina in this tournament.

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Speaker 2: I think that's helpful for a team when you're a

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Speaker 2: big underdog. But I do think that if you're going

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Speaker 2: to bet Canada, I would just bet them at plus

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Speaker 2: eight fifty to win inside ninety or if you want

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Speaker 2: to get on board and bet them to win the tournament,

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Speaker 2: go right ahead too, Like I mean, that's that's yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's it. I I don't know if there's all that

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Speaker 2: much value on them against this Argentina team. That yeah,

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Speaker 2: they did have their first nerview moment of the tournament,

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Speaker 2: but as you said all along, like this is a

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Speaker 2: team that they just control the game from the second

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Speaker 2: it starts to the second it ends, and that is

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Speaker 2: very contrary to what Canada wants.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think, so let's talk. Let's get the

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Speaker 1: futures stuff out of the way first. Somehow I would

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Speaker 1: play it. If you have a stage of elimination bed

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Speaker 1: at eleven to one, I have hedged that you can

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Speaker 1: find a plus four to twenty five on Canada to advance,

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Speaker 1: so there andfore you can get yourself you know, about

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Speaker 1: a eight and a half guaranteed or so unit profit.

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Speaker 1: I have taken that because I do think that there

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Speaker 1: is a real possibility that Canada gets by Argentina here.

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Speaker 1: I do not think it's a sure thing, as at

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Speaker 1: least the first match showed. I went back and wrote

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Speaker 1: rewatched the first matchcause I thought it was kind of

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Speaker 1: important to maybe understand, you know, how everything played out,

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Speaker 1: because Argentina created three expected goals, right well, a lot

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Speaker 1: of those chances, at least a couple of their biggest

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Speaker 1: chances when they won the ball off a corner and

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Speaker 1: just got a like a one on one break with

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Speaker 1: a keeper. Outside of that, there really wasn't a lot

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Speaker 1: of like really high high quality chances. There was a

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Speaker 1: lot of shots that were you know, the next year

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Speaker 1: rating around point one, you know. In the end, I mean,

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Speaker 1: Argentina and ended up with twenty plus shots in the match.

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Speaker 1: But I was really impressed with what Canada was able

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Speaker 1: to do out of possession because a lot of times

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Speaker 1: what teams do with Argentina, it's why they control matches

84
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Speaker 1: so well. His teams just kind of sit back in

85
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Speaker 1: a passive block and they say, oh gosh, like we

86
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Speaker 1: cannot allow Argentina to play through the middle, like we

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Speaker 1: can't allow them to beat us over the top. Canada

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Speaker 1: really wasn't afraid of that. They played very, very compact,

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Speaker 1: Like basically from the jump, I know that Jesse Marsh

90
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Speaker 1: was just like, they can't play through the middle. So

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Speaker 1: they were playing a super compact four two four four

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Speaker 1: four two type of you know, modified type of defensive structure.

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Speaker 1: And they did a really good job at denying space

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Speaker 1: to the middle for Argentina and basically just a lot

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Speaker 1: having them forced the ball out wide or take chances.

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Speaker 1: The one thing I'll say about Argentina, they are a

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Speaker 1: team that, like I've said, controls matches them start to finish.

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Speaker 1: They're not in the same aspect of like England or France.

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Speaker 1: Like if they even sniffed like a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a hole or passes there, they're gonna take it. And

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Speaker 1: it happens. Oh, it happened over and over again against Canada,

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Speaker 1: and they open them up that way. So I think

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Speaker 1: Canada will be a little bit more passive city or

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Speaker 1: excuse a little bit more compact, making sure that Argentina

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Speaker 1: doesn't even play through the middle. But what was even

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Speaker 1: more impressive about Canada though, is their ability to break

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Speaker 1: in transition, because again, the only team that has beat

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Speaker 1: has beaten Argentina since the twenty twenty two World Cup.

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Speaker 1: And what does have They got paced going forward and

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Speaker 1: then an attack and Canada did create over one expected

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Speaker 1: goal against Argentina, and they had a point plank header

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Speaker 1: in the first half that could have put them ahead.

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Speaker 1: So you know, they created one point one expected goals.

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Speaker 1: That's only the first time, uh since the start of

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Speaker 1: the twenty two World Cup. France is the only other

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Speaker 1: team to do that to Argentina, so getting over one

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Speaker 1: expected goal against them is actually a pretty impressive feat.

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Speaker 1: So for me, you know, I if you like, let's

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Speaker 1: say you're somebody who just bet Argentina like to win

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Speaker 1: this tournament plus one seventy five before the tournament, I

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Speaker 1: would bet Canada twenty six to one right now to

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Speaker 1: win the tournament if you have that as a hedge,

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Speaker 1: because I think that with the fact that this match

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Speaker 1: doesn't go to extra time and it goes straight to penalties,

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Speaker 1: I know, I mean, Martinez is like the best, you know,

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Speaker 1: penalty goalkeeper of all time. But you know, variance has

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Speaker 1: a way of working it self out sometimes and Canada

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Speaker 1: definitely could get through on penalties. So even if it's

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Speaker 1: not a coin flip and it's fifty five forty five, like,

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Speaker 1: that's still a way better chance on you know, plus

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Speaker 1: for twenty five to advance or even twenty six to

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Speaker 1: one to win the tournament. So in any case, you know,

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Speaker 1: from hedging in future perspective, I would play Canada specifically

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Speaker 1: for this match, I kind of do like over two

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Speaker 1: and a half goals and even money. I played the

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Speaker 1: under in the first match and got lucky, and I

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Speaker 1: think that Census is a knockout match and not a

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Speaker 1: group stage match. If Argentina goes ahead, you'll see Canada

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Speaker 1: be more and more and more aggressive because throughout this

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Speaker 1: entire tournament they really haven't been playing from behind, right,

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Speaker 1: they've been They've been playing from an even or a

142
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Speaker 1: positive game state. So they've tended to not sit off

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Speaker 1: a little bit more, but not be as aggressive with

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Speaker 1: their pressing out of the mid block. And I'll say

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Speaker 1: it again, they have unbelievable pacy transition attackers that can

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Speaker 1: give Argentina a lot of problems. So but if Argentina

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Speaker 1: goes ahead, that's gonna leave Canada kind of open, which

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Speaker 1: Argentina could punish them over and over again and again.

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Speaker 1: They will take opportunities if think you can give them

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Speaker 1: to them. So for this match, over two and a

151
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Speaker 1: half at even money is my favorite bet, And if

152
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Speaker 1: you're playing it from a future's perspective, I think there's

153
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Speaker 1: a decent chance that Canada gets through. So I would

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Speaker 1: hedge in any type of aspect.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty six to one, I think on Canada to

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Speaker 2: win is still fine.

157
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Speaker 1: I mean you got I mean it's one match, right match,

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Speaker 1: and you get a twenty six to one hatch in

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Speaker 1: the final with no extra time, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean it's crazy. Yeah, So I'm with you. I think

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Speaker 2: that it's it's in whatever way you want to bick

162
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Speaker 2: Canada here is probably the best way to do it.

163
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Speaker 2: The other match, So that's Tuesday night, nine pm Eastern time.

164
00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:05,800
Speaker 2: The other semi final is perfectly poised. It's a true

165
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,000
Speaker 2: pickum in terms of the two advanced between Uruguay and

166
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Speaker 2: Colombia minus one ten on both sides at bet three

167
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Speaker 2: six five and then the three way line, you could

168
00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 2: say that Columbia is the slightest of favorites at plus

169
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Speaker 2: one eighty Uruguay's plus twenty eighty seven the draws plus

170
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:26,239
Speaker 2: one ninety. I think that this match ends inside ninety.

171
00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,880
Speaker 2: I think these two teams are both very can play

172
00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:32,920
Speaker 2: very physical, like we got bielsa ball going. Colombia isn't

173
00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,520
Speaker 2: afraid to play on the front foot either. I think

174
00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,600
Speaker 2: this thing should be a lot of fun to watch.

175
00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,600
Speaker 2: So whether it's like you can definitely talk yourself into

176
00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:48,160
Speaker 2: live betting a team that goes down. I think both

177
00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 2: teams to receive a red card at thirty three to

178
00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,080
Speaker 2: one is also really interesting at bet three six five.

179
00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,680
Speaker 2: Because here's here's why I think that's interesting, right, Like,

180
00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 2: this match is is gonna it's gonna be all passion off,

181
00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,840
Speaker 2: it's gonna be frenzied. It's you know what bi also

182
00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:05,959
Speaker 2: wants to do with his teams. Colombia has been playing

183
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,640
Speaker 2: some really fun stuff too. But they're both so physical

184
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 2: and unrelenting that let's say one team goes up, you know,

185
00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,320
Speaker 2: to nothing, and it's late in the game, I could

186
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,520
Speaker 2: see something stupid happening where, you know, maybe red cards

187
00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,320
Speaker 2: just get ditched out as a in in like a

188
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,360
Speaker 2: little bit of a Donnybrooks sort of situation in hockey.

189
00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:26,839
Speaker 2: When the rep says like I got to take one

190
00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:28,600
Speaker 2: from each side basically and put them in the penalty

191
00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:30,319
Speaker 2: box like something like that. I just think there's a

192
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,560
Speaker 2: lot of ways to get to to one red card

193
00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,680
Speaker 2: for both sides here. So that's that's one fun prop

194
00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 2: at thirty three to one, I like in this match

195
00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,400
Speaker 2: because I do think it's gonna be quite fun and crazy.

196
00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:43,319
Speaker 2: If I had to pick a side, I think I

197
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:47,360
Speaker 2: would lean towards Uruguay, but I would play the three

198
00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,360
Speaker 2: way line rather than the minus one ten I think

199
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,599
Speaker 2: plus one eighty seven, because there's just a lot of

200
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,559
Speaker 2: variance in this matchup, Like there's it's very hard to

201
00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:00,439
Speaker 2: see this thing being tight one to one nil. Neither

202
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,839
Speaker 2: team wanting to be on the front foot, They're both

203
00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,200
Speaker 2: gonna want to go for it. So yeah, I like

204
00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,240
Speaker 2: I would lean towards Uruguay. I know you like goals

205
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 2: in this one too. I think you can play like

206
00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,240
Speaker 2: some same game parlays too, like Uruguay and an over

207
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,600
Speaker 2: or if you like Columbia, Columbia in the over, maybe

208
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:18,360
Speaker 2: the team to win from behind, however you want to

209
00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,160
Speaker 2: do it, because this thing should be chaos to BJ.

210
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've placed the biggest bed in an individual Copa

211
00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,200
Speaker 1: America match yet on this match, and it's both teams

212
00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:31,840
Speaker 1: to score at plus one twelve. So these two play

213
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:36,559
Speaker 1: very very similar styles. It's pressed from the front, play

214
00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,480
Speaker 1: in transition, and play chaos ball for lack of a

215
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,800
Speaker 1: black of a better term. They played in World Cup

216
00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,679
Speaker 1: qualifying in October of twenty twenty three, Michael, there was

217
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,400
Speaker 1: red card in that match. It was the good and

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you why it happened. It's because both of

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Speaker 1: these teams, especially excuse me, especially Colombia, because they like

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Speaker 1: to press from the front. They play an incredibly high

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Speaker 1: line and nobody so far in Cope America has been

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Speaker 1: able to punish them for it. You know, even against Brazil,

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Speaker 1: Brazil was just like throwing outlet balls out to Venetius

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Speaker 1: Junior and Rodrigo and Rafina and just like kind of

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Speaker 1: hoping for the best. Nobody was playing a ball in

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Speaker 1: over the top. Well that's exactly what Uruguay does with

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Speaker 1: Darowa Nunez over and over and over again, and they

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Speaker 1: got they got one of their attackers in behind and

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Speaker 1: they you know, the goalkeeper took out the striker. It

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Speaker 1: was a red card and boom penalty and it ended

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Speaker 1: up tying the match to too. The match that into

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Speaker 1: two two, there were four point one expected goals and

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Speaker 1: Colombia excuse me, four point one expected goals and about

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Speaker 1: thirty five shots in the match. It was just complete

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Speaker 1: chaos and it was just very back and forth with

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Speaker 1: both teams just wanting to play in transition. Columbia scored early,

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Speaker 1: which forced Uruguay out of their mid block and into

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Speaker 1: a higher pressing type situation with left which obviously left

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Speaker 1: a lot of space in behind. Uruguay is going to

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Speaker 1: be without Roy Hill for this match, who's their best,

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Speaker 1: which is a huge loss for them. So that's going

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Speaker 1: to give Columbia even more room to operate, especially in

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Speaker 1: those transition moments. So both teams should have their opportunities

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Speaker 1: going back and forth. And although Columbia's press has been

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Speaker 1: really good during this tournament, I mean they've against Brazil

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Speaker 1: they had a pass per defensive action of seven point

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Speaker 1: two and even in their last meeting against Colombia against Uruguay,

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Speaker 1: they forced fifteen high recoveries. They are very vulnerable in behind,

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Speaker 1: and nobody in this tournament has really been able to

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Speaker 1: punish them for that. Well, now they have a team

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Speaker 1: in Uraguay who absolutely can do that. So the second

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Speaker 1: that one team goes ahead in this match, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be devolved into complete chaos, which is why I

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Speaker 1: like both teams to score. Again, the previous meeting between

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Speaker 1: these two had four point one expected goals. I know

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Speaker 1: South American matches and typically matches throughout this tournament have

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Speaker 1: been very, very low scoring, but these two teams are

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Speaker 1: complete outliers in that aspect. So if one of them

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Speaker 1: is playing a team like Brazil, for example, who really

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Speaker 1: can't create anything right now and is just trying to

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Speaker 1: build out of the back, then yes, the matches tend

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Speaker 1: to be a little bit more low scoring. But now

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Speaker 1: you have two teams that are playing the exact same

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Speaker 1: style who want to make it chaotic, and two teams

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Speaker 1: honestly that I think believe that they are the better

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Speaker 1: transition teams. So I think you're going to see more

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Speaker 1: of the same from these two, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to lead to a very chaotic match. So I

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Speaker 1: don't think that both teams to score should be sitting

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Speaker 1: at plus money.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so I'm assuming that would be your favorite bet

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Speaker 2: of the bunch here. Yep, my favorite bet. You know what,

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Speaker 2: I'll say My best bet for Copa semi Finals is

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Speaker 2: both teams to get a red card thirty three to

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Speaker 2: one Yer Aguay and Colombia. I just think there's a

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Speaker 2: much higher chance of that happening than thirty three to

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Speaker 2: one UTS. All right, that'll do it for the Copa

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Speaker 2: America semi finals. We also recorded our Euro semi Finals

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Speaker 2: just before with Sam Ingram, so be sure to check

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Speaker 2: that one out if you haven't already. We'll be back

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Speaker 2: for the final as well. On the other side of

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Speaker 2: these matches, thank you for listening. Thank you to our

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Speaker 2: sponsors Bet three six five and to our producer Nowa

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Speaker 2: for all the hard work. Action Network reminds you please

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