WEBVTT - It's Coming Down To Trench Warfare: Mike Lyons Talks To Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>Mike clients military analysts. Mike served with various military organizations

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<v Speaker 1>both domestically and throughout the world throughout his career, served

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<v Speaker 1>with the great distinction there's a respected military analysts. Mike.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you, sir, guy. It's great to be back

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<v Speaker 1>with you today. Thanks. You know, there are some developments

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<v Speaker 1>in the last couple of days we can talk about,

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<v Speaker 1>but let's go big picture. Six months in where are we? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>big picture? Uh. You know, it's kind of like going

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<v Speaker 1>to boil the ocean down here quickly for it. Because

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at domains you look at from a

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<v Speaker 1>military perspective, land, air, see, uh, cyber and let's stay communication, propaganda.

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<v Speaker 1>Not a single one of those domains does Russia control.

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<v Speaker 1>We thought six months ago this was going to be over,

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<v Speaker 1>this illusion of a short war, short battle that has

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<v Speaker 1>taken place throughout history. Uh. Six months now into this,

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<v Speaker 1>Russia has not any control over any of those domains. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, it's stillmated in each and every one of them.

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<v Speaker 1>And uh and now we perceived to both sides, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>really digging in the winter is going to start. And

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<v Speaker 1>now you're seeing things of expansion with regard to what's

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<v Speaker 1>what's Europe going to do. I saw reports about the

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<v Speaker 1>European countries possibly poll and properly Ukraine helping them destroy

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<v Speaker 1>the Norrange stream pipelines. We're getting into economic, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of state craft with regard to sanctions that that

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<v Speaker 1>are going to just on Russia, but to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>again boil it down. Russia did not expect to be

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<v Speaker 1>where it is right now. Six months on Ukraine Independence Day.

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<v Speaker 1>They thought they have full control of Ukraine well by

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<v Speaker 1>this point, and I've heard reports that we the West,

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<v Speaker 1>they tell whomever, we're furnishing the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated

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<v Speaker 1>weapons systems, accurate artillery to fifty miles, what should we

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<v Speaker 1>know about that? We are? And all that is good,

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<v Speaker 1>But what's happened Russia has learned and finally and they're

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<v Speaker 1>starting to dig in. This is now taking the shape

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<v Speaker 1>of again what we've seen wars in the past, of

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<v Speaker 1>trench warfare, and they've been able to protect themselves from

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<v Speaker 1>from these weapons systems. It gives the Ukraine military at

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<v Speaker 1>least an advantage that they don't have in numbers, but

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<v Speaker 1>they'll never have in numbers. And this is why from

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<v Speaker 1>a war of attrition perspective, Russia could just grind us away,

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<v Speaker 1>They could just grind us down and just keep this

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<v Speaker 1>going until both sides are exhausted. Look how long World

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<v Speaker 1>War One last A four years of basically this kind

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<v Speaker 1>of thing. Um, you don't I don't see Russia stopping

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<v Speaker 1>right now. If they wanted to, they should stop, build

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<v Speaker 1>a border, try to keep the land that they've they've taken,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why Ukraine would have to say that they've

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<v Speaker 1>they've been at a loss. But but again from on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground, from a conventional perspective, Russia thought this was

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<v Speaker 1>going to go a lot, a lot better than it has.

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<v Speaker 1>They still own a nap about once set of that

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<v Speaker 1>land mass. But and some highly really areas of industrial

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<v Speaker 1>strength that that will help Russia if they can keep

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<v Speaker 1>it and maintain it. Yes, so President Zelinski said, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it was yesterday very forcefullly, that we will take

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<v Speaker 1>back all that land, including Crimea, and we will not

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<v Speaker 1>stop until we've accomplished that. Um, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>of the of that. That's a pretty powerful statement, it is,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's going to only take place with a regular

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<v Speaker 1>warfare because they just don't have the conventional forces to

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<v Speaker 1>run kilometer Front, which is really what what exists right

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<v Speaker 1>now Russia does. They've got some capacity and now they're

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<v Speaker 1>even on the defense in some areas there. So, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that they're bombing into Crimea ammo dumps. We

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<v Speaker 1>saw Russia now starting to store some ammunition at Depa Faiza.

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<v Speaker 1>That's that nuclear power plant. They're going to use that

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<v Speaker 1>as a way to try to protect some of the

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<v Speaker 1>military assets. But that's just the thing. Russia is not

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<v Speaker 1>going to stop Ukraine's not going to stop. The winner's coming.

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<v Speaker 1>And um, you know, we have to see what actually

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<v Speaker 1>Western Europe does. If they're gonna cave get weak at

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<v Speaker 1>the knees when it comes to buying Russia oil and gas,

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<v Speaker 1>if they keep making dumb decisions about the outsourcing their energy,

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<v Speaker 1>then they have everything you know coming to them. Military analysts,

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<v Speaker 1>my clients on the line, Mike, the point you made

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<v Speaker 1>about a war of attrition and Russia's advan there is undeniable.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, uh, they they have already

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<v Speaker 1>proven their lack of adequacy as a fighting force, the

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<v Speaker 1>lack of discipline and training and equipment among their people. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what's Russia's next step if indeed this war grinds on

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<v Speaker 1>for another god knows how long. Right, they've proven real

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<v Speaker 1>incompetence on the grounds their inability to take care and

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<v Speaker 1>manage their their troop levels and their soldiers. The leadership

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<v Speaker 1>is awful. Uh, they can't keep morale in the units.

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<v Speaker 1>But what they have is artillery, and artillery is called

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<v Speaker 1>king of battle for a reason, and that artillery is

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<v Speaker 1>going to hold off any Ukrainian attempts to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>claw back any of some of this land there because

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<v Speaker 1>they outgun them likely tend to one. Now, well, we've

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<v Speaker 1>given them missile systems and things that are highly accurate. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a principle of war called mass that's still Russia

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<v Speaker 1>still owns in this case because of the size of

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<v Speaker 1>its country. So um, they're they're they're going to use

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<v Speaker 1>that to their advantage. They're not going to run out

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<v Speaker 1>of ammunition anytime soon. Uh, they'll likely start conscripting more

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<v Speaker 1>troops to be thrown into the fodder. Uh we saw

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<v Speaker 1>from from barge sticks conscripted sums would likely see them

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<v Speaker 1>start to come in the next couple of months as

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<v Speaker 1>at both sides just really really dig in. At this point,

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be I think you're gonna seem more like

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<v Speaker 1>a World War One trench warfare. Yeah, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>look at these daily battle reports and they literally moved

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<v Speaker 1>feet and yards at a time. They're not taking any

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<v Speaker 1>large cities. There's no major offensive operations taking place. It's

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<v Speaker 1>it's now coming down of trench warfare. Man. That's uh,

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<v Speaker 1>that sounds ugly. What's your this is opinion stuff. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your opinion on? Are we giving Ukraine enough stuff fast enough?

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<v Speaker 1>I think so? Um And the more, you know, billions

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<v Speaker 1>of dollars on the way there, I think we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>all we can, but we can't give them what they

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<v Speaker 1>really need, and that's an army. You can't give them

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<v Speaker 1>the man of material and and that that goes with it. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I know folks that are flying over there helping them

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<v Speaker 1>with training, virtual reality training, every single every single let's

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<v Speaker 1>let's called battlefield exceler rent is being put there. But

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<v Speaker 1>the quote, you know, the old Roman legions, Until you're

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<v Speaker 1>willing to put your your people in the mud, nothing's

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<v Speaker 1>really going to happen. So what they need is an army.

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<v Speaker 1>They need two or fifty troops, they need that level

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<v Speaker 1>of manpower. We can throw all the technology after them

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<v Speaker 1>that is a combat multiplier, but from their perspective that

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<v Speaker 1>they're just short on people and that's really where this

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<v Speaker 1>Russia does have the advantage, and that's where this war

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<v Speaker 1>patrician will just potentially grind them out. Still. The final

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<v Speaker 1>question for me, Mike, and it's kind of a personal request.

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<v Speaker 1>Amidst my life of the endless consumption of dreary, endless

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<v Speaker 1>depressing news articles, I've rededicated myself to reading books. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you have a favorite book about a particular military conflict

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<v Speaker 1>or war or military conflict in general that you think

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<v Speaker 1>the folks would find enjoyable or edifying. Boy, great question,

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<v Speaker 1>I've got a lot of them. One right away, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>i am. I'm after listening to one right now called,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the Battle of War and uh. One that

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<v Speaker 1>comes to mind that to me is that it's called

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<v Speaker 1>The Heights of Courage. It's by a guy named Avador Kahalani,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's about the Israeli conflicts in the seventies and

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<v Speaker 1>what took place in the Israeli army and what they

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<v Speaker 1>did to from from their technology perspective, to overcome the

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<v Speaker 1>numerical superior our force they were fighting. Um, all of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that go into small unit tactics. I I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a small unit tactive guy. I commanded on the ground

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<v Speaker 1>at the lowest level. And well, I have lots of

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<v Speaker 1>general officer friends that you know that kind of sat

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<v Speaker 1>in the talk and kind of watched them going. I

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<v Speaker 1>was in the execution phase of the army when I

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<v Speaker 1>was doing it, and so when I when I read

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<v Speaker 1>that book, I just you know, got you. It gets

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<v Speaker 1>you inside the tank, It gets you inside those firing

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<v Speaker 1>mechanisms and the decisions that had to be making split seconds,

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<v Speaker 1>and the amount of courage it took from the Israeli

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<v Speaker 1>Army to defend, especially on the Gold Heights there. So

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<v Speaker 1>that that's one of my favorite the Heights of Courage.

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<v Speaker 1>It's an old book, but it's really it's really worth history.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think so many things today actually go back.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think the Ukraine is very similar to those

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<v Speaker 1>Abzraelist wars in the seven and he's based on the

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<v Speaker 1>surprise attack aspect of it, based on being outnumbered by

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<v Speaker 1>Numerican spirit force, but using technology in order to try

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<v Speaker 1>to overcome that disadvantage. Terrific, great stuff. Mike Clients, Military

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<v Speaker 1>analyst Mike We appreciate it so much. Thanks. Yeah, that's

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<v Speaker 1>good stuff. I hadn't heard anybody say that, but it

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<v Speaker 1>makes a lot of sense if you're gonna, if you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna try to draw comparisons, you know, stay away from

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<v Speaker 1>World War one or two or various places and go

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<v Speaker 1>with the Arab Israeli conflict. Massively out numbered, surrounded, surrounded. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>arm and