Speaker 1: Mike clients military analysts. Mike served with various military organizations
Speaker 1: both domestically and throughout the world throughout his career, served
Speaker 1: with the great distinction there's a respected military analysts. Mike.
Speaker 1: How are you, sir, guy. It's great to be back
Speaker 1: with you today. Thanks. You know, there are some developments
Speaker 1: in the last couple of days we can talk about,
Speaker 1: but let's go big picture. Six months in where are we? Yeah,
Speaker 1: big picture? Uh. You know, it's kind of like going
Speaker 1: to boil the ocean down here quickly for it. Because
Speaker 1: if you look at domains you look at from a
Speaker 1: military perspective, land, air, see, uh, cyber and let's stay communication, propaganda.
Speaker 1: Not a single one of those domains does Russia control.
Speaker 1: We thought six months ago this was going to be over,
Speaker 1: this illusion of a short war, short battle that has
Speaker 1: taken place throughout history. Uh. Six months now into this,
Speaker 1: Russia has not any control over any of those domains. Uh.
Speaker 1: In fact, it's stillmated in each and every one of them.
Speaker 1: And uh and now we perceived to both sides, you know,
Speaker 1: really digging in the winter is going to start. And
Speaker 1: now you're seeing things of expansion with regard to what's
Speaker 1: what's Europe going to do. I saw reports about the
Speaker 1: European countries possibly poll and properly Ukraine helping them destroy
Speaker 1: the Norrange stream pipelines. We're getting into economic, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of state craft with regard to sanctions that that
Speaker 1: are going to just on Russia, but to kind of
Speaker 1: again boil it down. Russia did not expect to be
Speaker 1: where it is right now. Six months on Ukraine Independence Day.
Speaker 1: They thought they have full control of Ukraine well by
Speaker 1: this point, and I've heard reports that we the West,
Speaker 1: they tell whomever, we're furnishing the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated
Speaker 1: weapons systems, accurate artillery to fifty miles, what should we
Speaker 1: know about that? We are? And all that is good,
Speaker 1: But what's happened Russia has learned and finally and they're
Speaker 1: starting to dig in. This is now taking the shape
Speaker 1: of again what we've seen wars in the past, of
Speaker 1: trench warfare, and they've been able to protect themselves from
Speaker 1: from these weapons systems. It gives the Ukraine military at
Speaker 1: least an advantage that they don't have in numbers, but
Speaker 1: they'll never have in numbers. And this is why from
Speaker 1: a war of attrition perspective, Russia could just grind us away,
Speaker 1: They could just grind us down and just keep this
Speaker 1: going until both sides are exhausted. Look how long World
Speaker 1: War One last A four years of basically this kind
Speaker 1: of thing. Um, you don't I don't see Russia stopping
Speaker 1: right now. If they wanted to, they should stop, build
Speaker 1: a border, try to keep the land that they've they've taken,
Speaker 1: which is why Ukraine would have to say that they've
Speaker 1: they've been at a loss. But but again from on
Speaker 1: the ground, from a conventional perspective, Russia thought this was
Speaker 1: going to go a lot, a lot better than it has.
Speaker 1: They still own a nap about once set of that
Speaker 1: land mass. But and some highly really areas of industrial
Speaker 1: strength that that will help Russia if they can keep
Speaker 1: it and maintain it. Yes, so President Zelinski said, I
Speaker 1: think it was yesterday very forcefullly, that we will take
Speaker 1: back all that land, including Crimea, and we will not
Speaker 1: stop until we've accomplished that. Um, what do you think
Speaker 1: of the of that. That's a pretty powerful statement, it is,
Speaker 1: and it's going to only take place with a regular
Speaker 1: warfare because they just don't have the conventional forces to
Speaker 1: run kilometer Front, which is really what what exists right
Speaker 1: now Russia does. They've got some capacity and now they're
Speaker 1: even on the defense in some areas there. So, Um,
Speaker 1: the fact that they're bombing into Crimea ammo dumps. We
Speaker 1: saw Russia now starting to store some ammunition at Depa Faiza.
Speaker 1: That's that nuclear power plant. They're going to use that
Speaker 1: as a way to try to protect some of the
Speaker 1: military assets. But that's just the thing. Russia is not
Speaker 1: going to stop Ukraine's not going to stop. The winner's coming.
Speaker 1: And um, you know, we have to see what actually
Speaker 1: Western Europe does. If they're gonna cave get weak at
Speaker 1: the knees when it comes to buying Russia oil and gas,
Speaker 1: if they keep making dumb decisions about the outsourcing their energy,
Speaker 1: then they have everything you know coming to them. Military analysts,
Speaker 1: my clients on the line, Mike, the point you made
Speaker 1: about a war of attrition and Russia's advan there is undeniable.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, uh, they they have already
Speaker 1: proven their lack of adequacy as a fighting force, the
Speaker 1: lack of discipline and training and equipment among their people. Um,
Speaker 1: what's Russia's next step if indeed this war grinds on
Speaker 1: for another god knows how long. Right, they've proven real
Speaker 1: incompetence on the grounds their inability to take care and
Speaker 1: manage their their troop levels and their soldiers. The leadership
Speaker 1: is awful. Uh, they can't keep morale in the units.
Speaker 1: But what they have is artillery, and artillery is called
Speaker 1: king of battle for a reason, and that artillery is
Speaker 1: going to hold off any Ukrainian attempts to kind of
Speaker 1: claw back any of some of this land there because
Speaker 1: they outgun them likely tend to one. Now, well, we've
Speaker 1: given them missile systems and things that are highly accurate. Um,
Speaker 1: there's a principle of war called mass that's still Russia
Speaker 1: still owns in this case because of the size of
Speaker 1: its country. So um, they're they're they're going to use
Speaker 1: that to their advantage. They're not going to run out
Speaker 1: of ammunition anytime soon. Uh, they'll likely start conscripting more
Speaker 1: troops to be thrown into the fodder. Uh we saw
Speaker 1: from from barge sticks conscripted sums would likely see them
Speaker 1: start to come in the next couple of months as
Speaker 1: at both sides just really really dig in. At this point,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be I think you're gonna seem more like
Speaker 1: a World War One trench warfare. Yeah, you know, I
Speaker 1: look at these daily battle reports and they literally moved
Speaker 1: feet and yards at a time. They're not taking any
Speaker 1: large cities. There's no major offensive operations taking place. It's
Speaker 1: it's now coming down of trench warfare. Man. That's uh,
Speaker 1: that sounds ugly. What's your this is opinion stuff. What's
Speaker 1: your opinion on? Are we giving Ukraine enough stuff fast enough?
Speaker 1: I think so? Um And the more, you know, billions
Speaker 1: of dollars on the way there, I think we're doing
Speaker 1: all we can, but we can't give them what they
Speaker 1: really need, and that's an army. You can't give them
Speaker 1: the man of material and and that that goes with it. Um.
Speaker 1: I know folks that are flying over there helping them
Speaker 1: with training, virtual reality training, every single every single let's
Speaker 1: let's called battlefield exceler rent is being put there. But
Speaker 1: the quote, you know, the old Roman legions, Until you're
Speaker 1: willing to put your your people in the mud, nothing's
Speaker 1: really going to happen. So what they need is an army.
Speaker 1: They need two or fifty troops, they need that level
Speaker 1: of manpower. We can throw all the technology after them
Speaker 1: that is a combat multiplier, but from their perspective that
Speaker 1: they're just short on people and that's really where this
Speaker 1: Russia does have the advantage, and that's where this war
Speaker 1: patrician will just potentially grind them out. Still. The final
Speaker 1: question for me, Mike, and it's kind of a personal request.
Speaker 1: Amidst my life of the endless consumption of dreary, endless
Speaker 1: depressing news articles, I've rededicated myself to reading books. Do
Speaker 1: you have a favorite book about a particular military conflict
Speaker 1: or war or military conflict in general that you think
Speaker 1: the folks would find enjoyable or edifying. Boy, great question,
Speaker 1: I've got a lot of them. One right away, Yeah,
Speaker 1: i am. I'm after listening to one right now called,
Speaker 1: you know, the Battle of War and uh. One that
Speaker 1: comes to mind that to me is that it's called
Speaker 1: The Heights of Courage. It's by a guy named Avador Kahalani,
Speaker 1: and it's about the Israeli conflicts in the seventies and
Speaker 1: what took place in the Israeli army and what they
Speaker 1: did to from from their technology perspective, to overcome the
Speaker 1: numerical superior our force they were fighting. Um, all of
Speaker 1: the things that go into small unit tactics. I I'm
Speaker 1: a small unit tactive guy. I commanded on the ground
Speaker 1: at the lowest level. And well, I have lots of
Speaker 1: general officer friends that you know that kind of sat
Speaker 1: in the talk and kind of watched them going. I
Speaker 1: was in the execution phase of the army when I
Speaker 1: was doing it, and so when I when I read
Speaker 1: that book, I just you know, got you. It gets
Speaker 1: you inside the tank, It gets you inside those firing
Speaker 1: mechanisms and the decisions that had to be making split seconds,
Speaker 1: and the amount of courage it took from the Israeli
Speaker 1: Army to defend, especially on the Gold Heights there. So
Speaker 1: that that's one of my favorite the Heights of Courage.
Speaker 1: It's an old book, but it's really it's really worth history.
Speaker 1: And I think so many things today actually go back.
Speaker 1: But I think the Ukraine is very similar to those
Speaker 1: Abzraelist wars in the seven and he's based on the
Speaker 1: surprise attack aspect of it, based on being outnumbered by
Speaker 1: Numerican spirit force, but using technology in order to try
Speaker 1: to overcome that disadvantage. Terrific, great stuff. Mike Clients, Military
Speaker 1: analyst Mike We appreciate it so much. Thanks. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: good stuff. I hadn't heard anybody say that, but it
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense if you're gonna, if you're
Speaker 1: gonna try to draw comparisons, you know, stay away from
Speaker 1: World War one or two or various places and go
Speaker 1: with the Arab Israeli conflict. Massively out numbered, surrounded, surrounded. Yeah,
Speaker 1: arm and