1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 2: Do us prout read a lot? 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: They're running a gay so smoothe so sweet, splendid sisting 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: just glorious text procution. Guys, all I'm looking for is 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How 6 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 1: shot with that shop of mind? Good buddy, and that's 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: why you see your beautiful tiers. 8 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet. 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:38,639 Speaker 1: Nobody piction them. Shut up, I'm trying. 10 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: The one. 11 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: It's left to the wide eyed, drilled pibus. How old 12 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 1: earth pick that happens? Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergo, 13 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name 14 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: is Michael Lee Buff and joining me today is my 15 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: colleague and good friend Anthonydbundo. BJ Cunningham is off. The 16 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: birth of his first child is imminent, so very exciting 17 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: news for the Cunninghams over in Iowa. It is a 18 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 1: little unfortunate that BJ won't be here for this episode though, 19 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: because we are starting with the headliner in the Premier 20 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: League midweek slate that's North London Derby Tottenham hosting. They're 21 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: plus one fifteen at home Arsenals plus two thirty. The 22 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: draw here is plus two fifty. Let's just set up 23 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: the race for the top four real quick, so you 24 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: know the stakes Chelsea. I mean you can't count them 25 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: out right now. They're sixty seven points Arsenal sixty six, 26 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: Spurs sixty two. They do have the plus six goal 27 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: differential over Arsenal, so this is a must win game 28 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: for Spurs and I must not lose game for Arsenal. 29 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: I think you should be bringing that into your handicap 30 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: a little bit because Arsenal can afford to be a 31 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: little bit more conservative, sort of maybe what Spurs tried 32 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: to do against Liverpool over the weekend. But I do 33 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: think the number looks about right on both teams. I 34 00:01:58,080 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: think that just because of the way that this game 35 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: will be played and the fact that both defenses are 36 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: in pretty good form Spurs eight point twenty nine expected 37 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: goals over their last ten games, Arsenal ten point twenty 38 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: five over the last eleven. The draw is definitely going 39 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 1: to be in play here because I mean, Arsenal is 40 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: not going to want to get let it get out 41 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: of hand Spurs. If they do get a lead, I 42 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: don't think they'll open up, so I just don't think 43 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,239 Speaker 1: the draw plus two fifty is ever going to be 44 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: out of question here. So that's where I'm going. So 45 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: I'm giddy. 46 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 2: I mean, Saturday was awesome, one of the better performances 47 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 2: I've seen from Toddenham all year. And Jurgen Klopp can 48 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: spin his little web post match and say, you know 49 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 2: they that's not how I would play, and you know 50 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: they have these world class players, but they play so defensive. Look, 51 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 2: Spurs went to anfield. They held Liverpool to one point 52 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 2: two expected goals according to Kayley's model, one point three 53 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 2: according to f b ref. I mean it was an 54 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 2: impressive defensive performance. They only conceded one big scoring chance 55 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 2: and it was the Van Dyke header and the goal 56 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: was pretty fortunate for Liverpool and it wasn't like they 57 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: were getting broken open. So I was impressed by spurs 58 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 2: ability to defend without the ball. And the question mark 59 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 2: comes for this match who actually has the ball? Because 60 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 2: Spurs are at home, so you'd expect them to be 61 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: more on the front foot. But from a tactical point 62 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 2: of view, the way these two teams like to play, 63 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,679 Speaker 2: you think Arsenal would if you look at the shot 64 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 2: profile It's kind of interesting, right. Arsenal is third in 65 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: shots per ninety, they're only eighth and big scoring chances. 66 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: They have a lot of possession, they take a lot 67 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: of shots. They don't get as many big scoring chances. 68 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 2: I know Ketty has been great lately, but generally speaking, 69 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 2: they rely more on quantity, whereas Spurs are ninth in shots, 70 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 2: third and big scoring chances. They're all about quality. They 71 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 2: get the best shots. They might not get as many 72 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 2: as Arsenal, but they're gonna get those big scoring chances 73 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 2: from those counter attacks, from those transition opportunities. Son Kane 74 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 2: Glsewski in behind. So it's a really interesting contrast of styles. 75 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 2: I don't really know who's gonna have more of the 76 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 2: ball here, and I think that really makes for an 77 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: interesting kind of handicapped trying to forecast, you know, where 78 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 2: this may go from a number point of view. I 79 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 2: showed value on Spurs before it moved, Now I don't. 80 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: So I've got Spurs plus one fifteen, a little bit 81 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: short than BJ He's got Spurs plus one twenty two. 82 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 2: It was plus one thirty one thirty five. That was 83 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 2: before both teams played this weekend. Now it's come down 84 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 2: guessing off Spurs. You know, good performance against Liverpool and 85 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: so unfortunately I think I'm going to be passing. That's 86 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: so lame. But if I had to take a side 87 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,559 Speaker 2: to be Tottenham, I think generally better team at home 88 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 2: plus money would be the look there. But you know, 89 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 2: Spurs defensively with their recent improvements, are what make me 90 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 2: feel better about this match, Whereas you know, a month 91 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 2: ago when they were struggling with crosses and not defending well, 92 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 2: that would have been more concerned. But I think they've 93 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 2: improved considerably defensively and Arsenal, I mean they're running so well. 94 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 2: The goals today, the first goal, Melia just hands it 95 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: to them and then they give away a dumb red card. 96 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 2: I mean it was very frustrating. 97 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, that was an interesting game too because Leeds was 98 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: not far from earning a draw there. On the last 99 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: gas there he. 100 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 2: Had a header to time. 101 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: Yeahpo right, with a point blank header. I mean it 102 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: wasn't a sitter by any means, but I think I 103 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: think you're talking like thirty percent that goes in, you know, 104 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 1: three out of ten. I think it's fair to expect. 105 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 2: All right, they did only have one shot in like 106 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 2: the first seventy minutes, so like you can't be like, oh, 107 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 2: they should have got a result, but. 108 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think, I mean, I think it's too. 109 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 2: Arsenal were not dominant after they went up. They were 110 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 2: not nearly as dominant as if they should have been, 111 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 2: and they kind of let leads hang around. And you know, 112 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 2: the first goal in this match is really important because 113 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 2: if Spurs score first, they get to sit off let 114 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 2: Arsenal have the ball, and then it almost is better 115 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 2: for Spurs. Obviously they'd be up a goal, but like 116 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 2: the game state I think favors Spurs, whereas if Arsenal 117 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 2: goes ahead, I still feel like thought them kind of 118 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 2: just has more attacking talent and firepower, and I think 119 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 2: that really is why I would tilt towards Spurs here. 120 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 2: And of course I'm biased, but like I'm pretty good 121 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: at separating that, and and you know, like going to 122 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 2: the last Darby, I was not feeling good about Spurs 123 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 2: and now I kind of do. So we'll see how 124 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 2: it goes. I will be on the edge of my seat. 125 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: Yep. Bj He actually sent us a voice note from 126 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: his abode and said that he's right on the number 127 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: he doesn't see much betting value, but it's confident that Arsenal, 128 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: even if they lose, will get the top four. And 129 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: I think that's kind of what. 130 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 2: He's over confident. I watched the video he's sent us. 131 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 2: He's over confident. 132 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 3: I'll say it, but I think what the I think 133 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 3: what he's feeling is kind of how Arsenal will gain 134 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 3: plan this, which is we will do everything we can 135 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 3: not to lose this match, and I think that's probably. 136 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: The right path for them. All right, let's move on 137 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 1: now to Aston Villa and Liverpool. Like I said, this 138 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: is a midweek slate of the Premier League that North 139 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: London Darby is actually on Thursday. We just wanted to 140 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: start with it. There are games scattered throughout the week, 141 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: including this one. This is a Tuesday at three pm, 142 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: the only game on Tuesday, and it's a big one 143 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: for the title defense. It's also an awkward one when 144 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: you look at who the manager for acid Villa is 145 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 1: that Stephen Gerrard, the Liverpool legend. He just had a 146 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: big say in helping Everton in there. You know, Liverpool's 147 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: main rival in their fight for relegation. By defeating Burnley 148 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: on the road. Villa returned home for this one. There's 149 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: six to one on the money line at Villa Park 150 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: Liverpool minus two fifteen. The draw here is plus three sixty. 151 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: Villa is on paper they're this kind of defensive defense 152 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: first team that that kind of lumbers forward. But Danny 153 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: Ings and Olie Watkins had had a really good game 154 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: against Burnley. Obviously different situation here going up against Liverpool, 155 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: but you know there are once again we're catching Liverpool 156 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: in a weird spot. Twelveth match in thirty eight days, 157 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:53,119 Speaker 1: fifth and thirteen days. The Jurgen klop was was very bitter. 158 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: He was whining, I guess is probably the fairest way 159 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: to put it about the Tottenham tactics against Liverpool on 160 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: the road. And he's also you know, kind of complaining 161 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: about their running, which is you know, whenever these coaches 162 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: were managers in European competitions, complain about the amount of 163 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,679 Speaker 1: fixtures they have to play. They just don't qualify for Europe. 164 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what else to tell you, Like, 165 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: it's part of the it's kind of part of the deal. 166 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: So that said, it's it's it's a tough number for 167 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 1: a Villa if I was hoping it was going to 168 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: be higher, because I would have loved to bet aston 169 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: Villa in this one because I think that it's just 170 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: a funny, funny situation. But I don't have anything in 171 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: terms of betting on this game. But I do think 172 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: that this isn't as straightforward as it will look, just 173 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: because of the way Villa can defend. 174 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 2: I just think they're underrated. I mean, we talked. I 175 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 2: talked about this last week when I kind of leaned 176 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 2: Villa and I was like, like, they're due for some 177 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 2: positive results here. They've been playing much better than their 178 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: cable position indicates and their results in recent matches have indicated, 179 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: and they were better than Burnley. They got a few 180 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 2: bounces to go their way. It's just kind of how 181 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 2: the sport works in the long run. It always tends 182 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 2: to even out. And they're still kind of do for 183 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 2: more results. I mean, again, they're eighth in the league 184 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 2: and XG difference since Gerard took over in terms of 185 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 2: expected points and in terms of XG difference. So they've 186 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 2: played well, and they defend set pieces really well, their 187 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 2: fifth best set piece defense, and they're very good on 188 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 2: direct counter attacks. They're the number one team when it 189 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 2: comes to direct attack speed. But the one thing that 190 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 2: concerns me with Villa they're not efficient at turning box 191 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 2: entries and chances into actual shots and XG and goals. 192 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: They're one of the least efficient teams in the entire league. 193 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 2: And I think that's a scary thought when you're playing 194 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: Liverpool because you're just not going to get those kind 195 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 2: of opportunities and you need to hate to work clinical, 196 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 2: but you need to be clinical, not in finishing because 197 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 2: that's mostly variance, but like in terms of getting those 198 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: direct attacking chances and turning them into actual shots and 199 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 2: end product. Their ball progression numbers are much better than 200 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 2: their actual end product numbers, and I think that's a 201 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 2: little bit of a concern in this matchup. And we 202 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 2: saw that when they played the first time. It was 203 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 2: beginning of the Jerrard era. Villa had almost nothing on 204 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 2: the counter. They defended for their lives, got held into 205 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 2: a one nil, but Liverpool had over two expected goals. 206 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 2: But Villa just didn't create enough, and I think that's 207 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 2: gonna be the biggest question mark in this match. I 208 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 2: leaned toward Villa two. I wish I could have gotten 209 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 2: one and a half one and a quarter one and 210 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 2: a half. I'm playing it, but it's just gonna be 211 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 2: a lean for me to Villa. I just think Liverpool 212 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 2: also has the Cup on Saturday, like, they have a 213 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 2: trophy on the line Saturday, and at what point does 214 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 2: klop start to prioritize that. And I know they have 215 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 2: enough depth that it doesn't totally matter, but their midfield does. 216 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 2: And they played their full main midfield on Saturday. They're 217 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 2: gonna want Thiago Foraminho and Henderson ready for Saturday. Again, 218 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 2: that's a bigger match. Do they rotate their midfield That 219 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 2: could make them control this game less. So I think 220 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 2: I would lean to Villa and then you know, we'll 221 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: see what the lineup looks like. 222 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I think I think all your 223 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 1: sentiments there. And in a similar spot, we'll talk about 224 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: Chelsea and leads. That leads plus four to fifty at home, 225 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: Chelsea minus one to fifty five to draw here is 226 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 1: supposed to ninety. Chelsea has the same as Liverpool. They 227 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: play Liverpool over the weekend on May fourteenth in the 228 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: f A Cup Final at Wembley. And let me tell you, man, 229 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: the I had that Chelsea. We had said in the 230 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: last episode that Chelsea we like Chelsea money line or 231 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 1: Chelsea however in a as like a parlay piece, a 232 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: money line parlat piece. I had him in a round 233 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,719 Speaker 1: robin that was very close and they were probably the 234 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: nail in the coffin from that turning that from making 235 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: just a little bit of money could have could have 236 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: been a lot more, and Chelsea got across the line. 237 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 1: I just don't know what's really gotten into them. It's 238 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: it's just very strange. They they seem to kind of 239 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: just now be sleepwalking and don't want to when the 240 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: going gets tough kind of matches, they're kind of shying away. 241 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: Saw that a little bit against Everton and then they 242 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: falter against Wolves, go up to nil, give up a 243 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: ninety seventh minute equalizer. I mean Leeds are a mess too, 244 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 1: but right now, I mean Jesse Marsh has his hands full. 245 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 1: Luke Alings now out with a red card, Liam Cooper, 246 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Bamford. I mean, it's just it's really hitting rock 247 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: bottom once again for Leeds, and it does they don't 248 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 1: seem to be backing the manager like they did with Bielsa, 249 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 1: and it's it's tough to lay with considering their form, 250 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: but the spot is just really tough for Chelsea and 251 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: makes me think, you know, leads at a decent number 252 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: here at home, the crowd will be behind them. It'll 253 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: be similar to that Everden match where Leeds is just 254 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: going to be going and going and going, and whether 255 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: or not Chelsea wants any piece of that is maybe 256 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: what's going to decide how this game plays out. And 257 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: that's really hard to handicap, but you got to consider 258 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 1: it at this point of the year. 259 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, this was the first time I was troubled, not 260 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 2: the first time, but the first time in the last 261 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,559 Speaker 2: couple of matches that I was troubled with Chelsea. I 262 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,199 Speaker 2: thought they were bad and I understand they kind of 263 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 2: collapsed late. It's funny you mentioned year round, Robin. I 264 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 2: had tried to bet a live bet. It was a 265 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: Chelsea money line with City money line. They got done 266 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 2: in like minus one seventy and as I was going 267 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 2: to submit it like the it locked me out because 268 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 2: they had been given the penalty and I was watching 269 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 2: on Peacocks. I was behind and I was like, oh, 270 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 2: here comes the penalty, and then I was like, oh, 271 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 2: you know, damn I missed out on that chance. And 272 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 2: then by the end of the game, I was like, 273 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 2: well they got I missed out. But anyway, I think 274 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 2: Chelsea should have probably not gotten a result anyway. I mean, 275 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 2: they Wolves had a lot of good counterattacking chances in 276 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 2: that match. And I'm not down. I'm not as down 277 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 2: on leads as everybody else. And I said this last week, 278 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 2: but I think I'm just going to keep betting them 279 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 2: because I think the market's wrong. I think the markets 280 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 2: is underrating them, and I'm either going to be broken. 281 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: They're gonna get relegated, or they're gonna stay up or 282 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 2: somewhere in between, you know, because like they could lose 283 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,319 Speaker 2: this game, you know, or get a draw and still 284 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 2: get relegated. But anyway, I thought they defended well against Arsenal. 285 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 2: I talked about that when we talked about Arsenal Tottenham. 286 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: I thought, you know, after the dumb mistake from Melia 287 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 2: playing off his line, they were pretty good in that match. 288 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 2: And I understand they didn't create a ton, but they 289 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 2: were down a man and managed to hang around and 290 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 2: almost stuff the result. 291 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: Late. 292 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 2: I thought they did about as well as you could 293 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 2: and even against Man City. I know the final score 294 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 2: was not good, but there were large periods of that 295 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,319 Speaker 2: match but they were really problems for City. They were 296 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 2: one ball away from getting those chances and they still 297 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 2: racked up over an expected goal in that match, and 298 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 2: it wasn't until the last ten fifteen minutes that they 299 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 2: really got undone. Chelsea not great on set pieces attack wise, 300 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 2: and that's a major weakness of leads. So I think 301 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 2: this is just a bad spot for Chelsea. FA Cup Saturday, 302 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: and leads have been better at home the one point 303 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 2: three expected goals per match at home this season, yet 304 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 2: they've only scored point eight from those chances, so there 305 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 2: is some positive regression coming for them. And we've talked 306 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 2: about Chelsea's defense at nauseum. I wonder if some of 307 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 2: it has to do with Rutiger leaving, Christiansen leaving. There's 308 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 2: a lot of and I hate these narratives, but because 309 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 2: they were due for this kind of regression, like the 310 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 2: level they played at was not sustainable. But some of 311 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 2: their guys just might have a foot out the door 312 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: here and they're still pretty safe for top four because 313 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 2: Arsenal Andantspirs play each other. So I'm gonna be looking 314 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 2: to leads here and I'm gonna play them plus one. 315 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: I only make Chelsea minus one to forty on the road, 316 00:14:57,920 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 2: So I think I'm just a little too high on 317 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 2: leads maybe, but overall, I'm back in the Peacocks. 318 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: We all love leads, I think. 319 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 3: No. 320 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 1: I think you you bring up a good point too, 321 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: like and I just said it kind of before about 322 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: you can't. It's really hard to handicap these things, and 323 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: then that's why we hate hate it. But there just 324 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: are going to be situations where you've got to consider it. 325 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: And I think we're seeing some with with what's going 326 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: on in the relegation battle. I think we're seeing it 327 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: with this Chelsea team too. They've they've just had a 328 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 1: very strange winter that they did not see coming. Like 329 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: none of these players knew what was going to happen 330 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: in January, that this was all going to become a 331 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: really strange situation. With Roman and Bramovich, I know that 332 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: they just got sold and that you get through. But now, 333 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,359 Speaker 1: like you said, like Rudiger is out the door, Christiansen's 334 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: probably gone. I think Marcos Alonso is also on his 335 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: way out. So it's like at some point this, this 336 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: team is going to just become a It's going to 337 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: become a weird blob almost just like players, and it's 338 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: I guess it's already there in terms of you know, Saturday, 339 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: there's something to play for, there's a trophy on the 340 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: line and a great way to yeah right, like a 341 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: great way to go out on a high note is 342 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: you know, win the FA Cup. Kind of cap off 343 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: your era as with Chelsea with a Champions League trophy 344 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: and an FA Cup trophy. So, like you said, weird spot, 345 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: I don't really hate betting leads to get a result, 346 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: and the money line, especially if it goes up, is 347 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: very interesting. Let's quickly talk about Leicester and Norwich. We 348 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: don't have anything on this either. One of us. Lester's 349 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: minus two thirty probably a little inflated, even with Norwich 350 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: being Norwich and out completely relegated. Just Lester is not 351 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: that good, right. This is the twentieth best team in 352 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: the Premier League Norwich versus maybe the fourteenth or fifteenth 353 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: best team in the Premier League this season in Leicester. 354 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: So the gap isn't going to be that crazy. If 355 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 1: les does Lester want a part of it, they Brendan 356 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: Rodgers made a lot of changes to his side for 357 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 1: the Everde match after playing and like it not that 358 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 1: Lester played bad and they thought they played hard, But 359 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: now you get to play another game three days later. 360 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: So you're talking about three in a week, three and 361 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: less than a week for Lester, all of which or 362 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: two of the three were meaningless and the other one 363 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 1: was a loss in a European semi final. So it's 364 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: Norwich or nothing here for me, but pretty easy pass. 365 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got Lester twelve. 366 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: I just looked that up. 367 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 2: They're not good and they're the biggest downgrade I've had 368 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 2: of any team this year. I don't know how they're 369 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 2: laying a goal on a quarter. I mean I do right, 370 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 2: like Norwich has quit and like if you didn't watch 371 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 2: Sunday against west Ham, like I was catching glimpses and 372 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 2: the effort was just not there. I mean, of course 373 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,479 Speaker 2: they're bad, and like they've always been bad, but this 374 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 2: is the second time now that Norwich they've not only 375 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 2: just gotten relegated, but they've gone out with a whimper. 376 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 2: I mean they lost ten in a row, heard a 377 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 2: project restart, they came back, they didn't win a single match. 378 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 2: They lost all nine league matches and their FA Cup match, 379 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 2: and they had lost the match prior to the lockdown 380 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 2: as well. So they ended the season in twenty twenty 381 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 2: when they got relegated with ten consecutive losses. What's to 382 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 2: stop them from doing that here? And that's the scary thought. 383 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 2: I mean, they got west Ham at home in a 384 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,159 Speaker 2: great spot. Hammer's season is over. They had just played 385 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 2: a Thursday road match in Frankfurt where they had to 386 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 2: defend without a man for an extra hour and a 387 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 2: half or me an extra hour, and they were off dreadful, 388 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 2: and so I just don't want to bet Norwich anymore. 389 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 2: And so this is just the easiest, the easiest pass 390 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 2: on the board of the whole card because again, like 391 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 2: we saw the lesser today, they're just not good. I mean, 392 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 2: set piece defense is still a major concern. They keep 393 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 2: leaking goals. They never figured out how to fix that, 394 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 2: and that's really been their downfall. I mean, their attack's 395 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 2: been worse, but it hasn't been terrible. It's really just 396 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 2: been the defense. And they never sorted out the set 397 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 2: piece of ssues. We said it could have been injuries, 398 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: but it wasn't we were just wrong. They never got better, 399 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 2: all right? 400 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,880 Speaker 1: Now move on to a huge one on Wednesday, Watford 401 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 1: hosting Everton. Watford plus three ten at home Everden. It's 402 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: on minus one ten the draws plus two seventy. Here 403 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,400 Speaker 1: is the relegation battle. I'm gonna throw south Ant in there, 404 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: because why not. They're at forty points at fifteenth. Everden's 405 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: thirty five points in sixteenth with a game in hand 406 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: on Burnley. This will be that game in hand in 407 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: a game in hand on Leeds. Obviously that will be 408 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: caught up later in the season because Leeds is also 409 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: playing this week during the midweek. There's a couple of 410 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: things here, like it's very obvious if you saw this 411 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: line three weeks ago before, you know, right, maybe right 412 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: after Everyton played Liverpool and someone said, hey, they're going 413 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 1: to be minus one ten on the road at Watford, 414 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: you would say that's the ludicrous price, right, and it is. 415 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: It's well earned. Like they've been playing better, they're playing harder. 416 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: They're relying on Jordan Pickford a little bit too much. 417 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 1: Of course, he's been superb and was the reason that 418 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: I mean, without him, they don't They probably get maybe 419 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: two points from Chelsea and Leicester and not six, So 420 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 1: you know, thank you Jordan for the way you're going. 421 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 1: That said, eleven home losses in a row for Watford, 422 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 1: they've been officially relegated. Roy Hodgson is obviously not going 423 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: to be the manager in the Championship. I don't think 424 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 1: he's going to take the side there. So it's just 425 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: a really strange situation and one that I don't want 426 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: to get involved with by betting Watford. The Everdent defense 427 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: is still a little concerning, but I do like what 428 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 1: they're showing going forward. Additionally, the Watford defense, even under Roy, 429 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: which which did improve for a little bit, has started 430 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: to really leak chances. Nine point sixty six total expected 431 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,679 Speaker 1: goals in less four matches. One of them is a 432 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 1: City match. Any even if you take that one out, 433 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: it's their averaging two expected goals against per match. And 434 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: because they've already been relegated, it's they're not going to 435 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 1: just sit back right. This is going to be a 436 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: much more open affair, and I think that kind of 437 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: puts some value here on backing an evident team. Total 438 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: over two and a half is plus three ten and 439 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:41,919 Speaker 1: I don't hate that at all. I think that they 440 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: can get three here against the Watford team that has 441 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: nothing to play for and is starting to struggle defensively, 442 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: and this Everden team is going forward well, whether they 443 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: can do it and get three goals remains to be seen. 444 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: It's been a while for them to hit that mark. 445 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 1: But this is more of a play of I want 446 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: to bet against this Watford defense, but I also don't 447 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: want to have the Everton defense come into place. So 448 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: that's why I'm just going to target the Everdon team total. 449 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 2: You know, I said last week that, like I thought 450 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 2: Everton was going to go on a little run and 451 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 2: then continue this, and then I kind of missed the schedule. 452 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 2: This is a and this number is just crazy. I mean, 453 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 2: I am nowhere near Everton minus one ten and I 454 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 2: thought I've been pretty high on Everton and I bet 455 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 2: them a couple of weeks ago. But how are they 456 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 2: minus one ten here? I've got them as a toss up, 457 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 2: I've got them as a small favorite. I checked BJ's numbers. 458 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 2: He's got Watford as a favorite. I understand the motivation 459 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 2: line right Everton is fighting relegation. Watford is already relegated, 460 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 2: but Everton's still been terrible on the road and I 461 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 2: think we need to not forget that here. And since 462 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 2: January first, Everton is minus point five XG difference per 463 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 2: ninety Watford is minus point sixty six. So Everton's been better, 464 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 2: and you know, I have them raided as a better team, 465 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 2: but not enough to be laying minus one ten on 466 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 2: the road. Five point thirty eight has Everton is a 467 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 2: small favorite as well, So I'm just dubious of this line, 468 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 2: and so I'm gonna take Watford. I understand nobody wants 469 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,719 Speaker 2: to bet them. They were pretty flat against Palace, but 470 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 2: then the penalty, they didn't concede a ton to Palace. 471 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 2: I thought overall, Palace had more of the ball, more 472 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,479 Speaker 2: of the possession. They were at home, they were up 473 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 2: a man for most of the second half, but they 474 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 2: didn't create a ton. And so I think I'm still 475 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 2: backing Watford to get a result here, even though they've 476 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 2: already been relegated, and I'm going to take them plus 477 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 2: a half. I'm going to sell Everton. I just have 478 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 2: to at this number. So sorry, Michael, but no, it 479 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 2: all would not be a bad result for Everton here. 480 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: No, I don't think so at all. And I think 481 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: that you know there's a middle one three to three 482 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,719 Speaker 1: for us, yeah, right, And I think that there's an 483 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: interesting situation brewing with everything. Like Miklanko, who's been really good, 484 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: he didn't finish the game. He was injured with their 485 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 1: hoping was cramps. Jerry Mina lasted like fifteen minutes, so 486 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 1: he's doing his r amina thing where he shows up 487 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 1: for two games is incredible and then gets hurt. But 488 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: Michael Keene look good, uh in that back five with 489 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: with a woebee Uh, and uh Miklenko has wing backs 490 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: and shames Coleman as a third center back. But uh, 491 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: it's a it's a weird situation because Everyden is really 492 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: preferred to sit back like they they look better when 493 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: they're seeding possession to teams like Chelsea, Liverpool, uh, Leicester 494 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: and then striking on the counter. Uh letting a woe 495 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: be to Mary Gray, Anthony Gordon and uh where Charleston 496 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 1: beat a couple of people on these counters and with 497 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: with dribbling or passing or whatever. And that's not just 498 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 1: gonna happen. I guess Watford this is gonna be a 499 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,159 Speaker 1: much more different style than Everyden has been playing against 500 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: and that uh kind of underdog us versus the world mentality. 501 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: Can't take that with you when you're playing against a 502 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: team that's lost eleven in a row at home. So 503 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 1: it's just a completely different situation than than what Everton's 504 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 1: been in. And like you said, it's it's a draw 505 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: wouldn't be a terrible result, but if they lose, it's 506 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: it's it's a problem. Considering what they have left. Their 507 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: last three games are I would say two coin flips 508 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: against Brentford and Palace and then a tough one on 509 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 1: the road at Arsenal to close it out, and you 510 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 1: just can't have the season go down to that last one. 511 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: So Everton need I think we'll target this as the 512 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: the three points, the easiest three points on the schedule 513 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 1: left for them, so that could go into play with 514 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: with how they set up. But it would be really 515 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: interesting to see who what the lineup looks like, because 516 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: like like I said, Mina and Miklanko are doubtful, then 517 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: you have Fabian Delf They've been really careful with his minutes, 518 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 1: so this I don't think this line's gonna stay here 519 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: either because of kind of stuff like that too. I 520 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 1: think the lineups and stuff. I mean, I would not 521 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: think Everden's going to take any more money because, like you. 522 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 2: Never known, and the Bundesliga got crazy this weekend. I mean, 523 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 2: you know, we talked on the pod. We liked plus 524 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 2: a half minus one ten because the line was too steep, right, 525 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 2: and then and then it was Friedburg as well, actually 526 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 2: not Freberg. Wolfsburg was plus one at Colne and the 527 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,479 Speaker 2: line like I bet them had that you on them, 528 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 2: and the line just kept going. So I'm gonna wait 529 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 2: here on Watford. I want to see where this gets 530 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 2: because it just kept going. I mean, con closed minus 531 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 2: one point twenty five and then Freyburg closed minus one 532 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,159 Speaker 2: thirty minus one forty. So these motivation things are just 533 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 2: keep getting hit. 534 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 1: But but remember, like you. 535 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 2: Said it, Everton is now a road favorite. Yeah, like 536 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 2: they are odds on in this match. It's very different 537 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 2: from being like a pick them right or being uh, 538 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 2: you know, an underdog at home. Now you're a road favorite, 539 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 2: and it's just such a huge difference. We're dealing with 540 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 2: bad teams here, don't forget that. Like, I know Everton's 541 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 2: playing well, but they're still bad. 542 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: Thinking about it this way too. Right, when Everyton was 543 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 1: on the road at Burnley, I think they closed around 544 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 1: plus than the three way money line, like plus one. 545 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 2: Eighty, yeah, and like minus one ten at Watford. How 546 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 2: much better are they? 547 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: Right? No, I know, I'm agreeing with you, Like the 548 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 1: line is inflated. That's why I don't think that this 549 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 1: line's gonna stay here. I think this is a okay, Like, 550 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: let's see if we can get more people on uh, 551 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: more people on everything before we move this thing in 552 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 1: the sharp money starts coming in on Watford because like, 553 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: the people's numbers are just gonna be so out of whack. 554 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 1: You're you know, you be Jay already you talked about 555 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: where you guys have this game modeled. There's gonna be 556 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 1: a lot more people out there who have it similarly priced. 557 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 1: So we'll see the power of the narrative. Yeah, I mean, 558 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 1: it's it's true, and it it's it's true. It's a truth. 559 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 2: There is a like, like the evidence shows like teams 560 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 2: occasionally will just not show up, and like Watford might 561 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,120 Speaker 2: not show up and they could lose, but more often 562 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 2: than not, they're a professional soccer team. They're gonna show up. 563 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 2: At home for one of their last home matches of 564 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 2: the season in the Premier League. 565 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,479 Speaker 1: Yeah, and and like like you said, like Everton are 566 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 1: the worst road team in the Premiery LEA. They've They've 567 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: won twice on the road, including this last one was 568 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 1: their first they went on Sunday. Their last win before 569 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: Sunday on the road was in August, so out of 570 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: whack the line is. But like I said, I can't. 571 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: I don't want to trust for Wafford and spots. That's 572 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 1: why I'm just gonna play the evident team total because 573 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 1: I do think that they if they do win, and 574 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 1: the markets selling us they're likely to do it. I'll 575 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 1: back them to do it by scoring a few goals here. Similarly, 576 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 1: I like the City team total. In the next game 577 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,119 Speaker 1: we're going to talk about, they're playing Wolves on the 578 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: road at the MALNU Wolverhampton plus twelve hundred, City minus 579 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: three sixty draw plus four seventy five. I like City 580 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,159 Speaker 1: over two and a half plus one twenty five. In 581 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: the last four matches in the Premier League, City scored 582 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 1: seventeen goals and they're creating three point oh seven expected 583 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 1: goals per match. And now they're facing a Wolverhampton team 584 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: that's allowed fifty point four expected goals on the season, 585 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: but they've only allowed thirty four. A lot of it 586 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 1: is goalkeeping from Jose Sa but against Man City that 587 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: is a recipe for disaster, especially as we saw today, 588 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:45,679 Speaker 1: City is highly incentivized to run up the score. They 589 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 1: passed Liverpool in gold diffrontial, they're now four goals ahead 590 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 1: of them. So I just think that this is really 591 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: sets up for a City for one win something like that. 592 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: So I think there's you know, fifty to fifty that 593 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 1: City scores three goals, so plus one twenty five is 594 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: a great number. That's where I'm going. 595 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, I certainly lean that way. I don't know how 596 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 2: I'm gonna play this yet. I've kind of gone back 597 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 2: and forth. I may even end up passing. But it 598 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 2: should be noted Rubin Diaz, Kyle Walker, John Stones all 599 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 2: out for the season and City only has the league 600 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 2: now to worry about Samy Trophy they're going to get 601 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,679 Speaker 2: and the only thing they're focused on. But what are 602 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 2: we getting from A Cancello's in Chanko Laporte ake defensive line. 603 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 2: I mean, we've talked about this. It's when City have 604 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 2: had to rotate out their main defensive players. That the 605 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 2: structure is still there, but they're just not quite as dominant. 606 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 2: And I was impressed by Wolves today over to expected 607 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 2: goals against Chelsea. They showed some legitimate counter attacking punch 608 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 2: and the defense for City hasn't been as dominant lately anyway. 609 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 2: Newcastle had about an expected goal today one point two 610 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: to leads last match point eight to Palace a few 611 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 2: weeks ago, bts is plus one twenty mand up there, 612 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 2: man up going just straight over on the off chance. 613 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 2: Like you said, City are going to look to run 614 00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 2: up the score. It's still hard to do on Wolves 615 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 2: because they're so conservative out of possession and they just 616 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 2: don't take chances. But you know, Wolves are trying of 617 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 2: just going for it here. They kind of need a 618 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 2: result that they still have an outside chance at the 619 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 2: Europa Conference League. So I'm leaning towards the both teams 620 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 2: to score in the over here, but I'm not quite 621 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 2: sure I'm gonna get the We're gonna see where the 622 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,080 Speaker 2: market settles come Wednesday, and then I want to look 623 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 2: at the lineup. I'm really interested to see what Wolves 624 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 2: end up doing because Jimenez has been terrible, but you know, 625 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 2: Trinko has provided some spark. Pedro netto finally back and 626 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 2: healthy from injury has been impressive. So we're gonna have 627 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,959 Speaker 2: to see where the lineups end up with this one. 628 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 2: But I may end up playing a both teams to 629 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 2: score or and over in this match. I think I 630 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 2: agree with you. And seeing City run it up today 631 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 2: was with something special. Jack Realish was incredible in the 632 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 2: last five minutes of the match. 633 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 1: It's a great reminder we've been talking about like narratives 634 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 1: and stuff, and I think a lot of people, including myself, 635 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 1: we're a little concerned for City against Ducastle coming off 636 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: of that lost. Let's not forget they stink. But also 637 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: like I'm just glad we don't have how how often 638 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: you know, did you hear when you were heard or 639 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 1: read or whatever previews for Newcastle City or the title 640 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: race and everyone saying, ooh, Madrid probably just did a 641 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: huge favor for for Liverpool with that game because they. 642 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 2: Can say they made them not have to play City. 643 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 1: I know, but like still, but I'm saying, like how yes, 644 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: but you know what I'm saying, like they were saying, 645 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 1: how could they ever recover? From this, and like you said, 646 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: these are elite, the best soccer players in the world, 647 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 1: and and. 648 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 2: Argue with the best soccer team in the world playing 649 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 2: at home. 650 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 1: So I'm just glad we don't have to do this. 651 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 2: Newcastle is really good talk. Like I was hoping, we'll 652 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 2: see if they buy in the summer. But if they 653 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,719 Speaker 2: had like a top half finish and then didn't make 654 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 2: that many Marque signings or made like some overrated signings, 655 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:45,680 Speaker 2: I was going to look to fade them. But I 656 00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 2: think the market is kind of realizing that they're just 657 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 2: not really that good and they had a good run, 658 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 2: but their underlying numbers were never that impressive. We'll see them, 659 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 2: I mean they do have they do still have what 660 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 2: Liverpool and Arsenal, Right, I know they played Liverpool. They 661 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 2: still have Arsenal in the schedule, so that'll be interesting in. 662 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 1: Our right at least, I know, I know they definitely 663 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 1: close with Burnley. Let's move on from the Premier League 664 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,240 Speaker 1: real quick. We'll go to the Copa Italia Inter in Juventus. 665 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 1: What do you have here? 666 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I'm taking Inter. I know they're in 667 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 2: the heart of the Scudeto race and they're probably more 668 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 2: focused on that, but this is still a cup final 669 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 2: and they're just a much much better team than Juventus, 670 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 2: much more than the market is pricing them at right now. 671 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 2: I mean, we have our little Premier League matrix or 672 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 2: our you know, European matrix that we use, and it's 673 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 2: actually kind of stunning to look at it, just how 674 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 2: far Juventus has fallen. I mean, they are fourth in 675 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 2: non penalty expected gold defense. Okay, that's not terrible, but 676 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 2: they're ninth in defensive box entries ninth and cross is 677 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 2: allowed twelfth and progressive passes allowed eighth in shots allowed. 678 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 2: I mean that is we're talking about Juventus and their 679 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 2: defense is this leaky and they don't stop the ball. 680 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 2: And then even going forward they're ninth in box centuries 681 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 2: going into the opponent they're ninth, and progressive passes they're 682 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 2: ninth in non penalty expected goals. And remember they have 683 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 2: Duzon Vlokhovitch, who's the greatest striker in the history of 684 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 2: the world. So it's pretty remarkable. No, in all seriousness, 685 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 2: I love inter here. Their attack is dominant, number one 686 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 2: in every statistical category in Italy. They should have won 687 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 2: the first meeting between these two teams and they did 688 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 2: win the second. I do think inter roles, I'm happy 689 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 2: to take the plus one twenty five. I make them 690 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 2: plus one. 691 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 1: Hundred Aliga also in action. Do you have a bet 692 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: here before we get onto our favorite bets for the 693 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 1: Premier League mid week slate. 694 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a classic motivation line. Again, I'm taking Valencia 695 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 2: a plus a half on Tuesday at home against Reale. 696 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 2: Bettis Bettiste very unfortunate to lose to Barcelona at home 697 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 2: on Saturday. They conceded in stoppage time, incredible wonder goal 698 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 2: and a great winner for Barsa. But again, you know, 699 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,560 Speaker 2: Bettist is chasing Europe and they've already been a team 700 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 2: that I've been looking to play against for most of 701 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 2: the second half of the season. Now they're laying a 702 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 2: half goal on the road, you know, minus one ton 703 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 2: on the money line Valencia over the whole course of 704 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 2: the season, and there's been about a half goal wors 705 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 2: per match factor in some home field. I understand Valencia 706 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,959 Speaker 2: has overperformed a little bit, but I just can't get 707 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 2: there on the number, and so I'm going to take Valencia. 708 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 2: Not a great La Lega slate, but I do like 709 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 2: valenci at home. 710 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 1: All right, let's wrap up this short podcast for a 711 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 1: short midweek slate with our favorite bets. I'll go first. 712 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 1: I like Manchester City team total over two and a 713 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: half plus one twenty five, and their last four matches 714 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 1: City have scored seventeen goals and are averaging three point 715 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 1: oh seven expected goals per match. And not only is 716 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 1: their offense humming, but they're facing a defense that is 717 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 1: due for some regression. Wolverhampton has allowed fifty point four 718 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: expected goals on the season, but they've only given up 719 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:43,720 Speaker 1: thirty four actual goals. Like I said, a lot of 720 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 1: that is great goalkeeping from Jose Sa. However, City is 721 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 1: highly incentivized to run up the score here, so they're 722 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 1: not going to stop pressing for goals. No matter what 723 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 1: the score is. They keep scoring more than three goals, 724 00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 1: so I think it's better than a fifty percent chance 725 00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: that they do it again here. So plus one twenty 726 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: five on over two and a half team total as 727 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: well worth a play. 728 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm going against Michael's Toffees. I'm taking Watford 729 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 2: plus a half minus one ten at home on Wednesday. 730 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 2: I understand Everton is playing for everything and Watford is 731 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,960 Speaker 2: playing for nothing. But we see this all the time. 732 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 2: The market juices up the favorite and as much as 733 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 2: Everton has played better over the last few weeks, they've 734 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 2: relied a lot on great goalkeeping, which is not a 735 00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 2: great sign for your defense. They have a ton of 736 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 2: defensive injuries that have now made their way into this lineup, 737 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,759 Speaker 2: and over the last three months they've only been a 738 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,640 Speaker 2: smidge better than Watford. So I understand they've been profitable 739 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 2: to back as an underdog or in pickum situations, but 740 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 2: now they're a road favorite. Watford defensively has been quite 741 00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 2: unlucky when you compare their expected goals to their actual goals. 742 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 2: I'm taking the Hornets at home to give one last 743 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,799 Speaker 2: great effort as in front of their home fans before 744 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,440 Speaker 2: they head back to the Championship. I think they get 745 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 2: at least a point, and they might even pull off 746 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 2: an upset. Remember we're still dealing with relegation teams. Everton 747 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 2: not good enough to be laying minus one ten in 748 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 2: this match. 749 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 1: And on that note, we will wrap up another episode 750 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 1: of Wonder Goal. We will be back on Thursday morning 751 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,440 Speaker 1: to preview the Premier League slate plus the f A 752 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 1: Cup Final and Until then, we wish you the best 753 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 1: of luck with all your soccer bets.