WEBVTT - An Experiment in Universal Basic Income

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show

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<v Speaker 1>where we explored the stories behind the stories in the news.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Noah Feldman. Last February, thirty five year old Thomas

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<v Speaker 1>Vargas received an envelope in the mail. It held a

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<v Speaker 1>debit card with five hundred dollars loaded onto it. I

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<v Speaker 1>was shocked, kind of like thought it was not true

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<v Speaker 1>or it was fake, but the money was real. Vargas

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<v Speaker 1>had been randomly selected to take part in an eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>month universal basic income pilot program being run by the

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<v Speaker 1>City of Stockton, California. Every month until July twenty twenty,

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<v Speaker 1>he'll get another five hundred dollars and be able to

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<v Speaker 1>spend that money on anything he wants. It's in fact

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<v Speaker 1>of my life greatly. I've been able to better, Like

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<v Speaker 1>I guess the goals that I wanted to do. I

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<v Speaker 1>will able to go and sign it back up for school.

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<v Speaker 1>My kids are also able to get more schooling or

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<v Speaker 1>more tutoring if they say ahead of their education. My

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<v Speaker 1>health and my stress level is better. I find that

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<v Speaker 1>I'm more energized, more happier than what I was before.

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<v Speaker 1>Vargas is hoping that the program will eventually expand to

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<v Speaker 1>help more people on a national level. Yeah, I can

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<v Speaker 1>see helping a lot of people out in a major way.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, a lot of people struggle or whatever, and

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<v Speaker 1>if they have the opportunity to receive something like this,

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<v Speaker 1>they could sit there and get theirselves out of the situation,

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<v Speaker 1>or sit there and help to make it better in

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<v Speaker 1>some way somehow. It's a long shot, but maybe it

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<v Speaker 1>could happen. In part thanks to Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang,

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<v Speaker 1>who's made it a central part of his platform, universal

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<v Speaker 1>basic income has actually gotten some buzz around it. What

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<v Speaker 1>would it actually be like, though, if every American received

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of set basic income from the government on

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<v Speaker 1>a monthly basis. To get a sense of the way

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<v Speaker 1>this could look, I spoke with Stockton's Mayor Michael Tubbs

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<v Speaker 1>and with Suki Samra, who's been tasked with overseeing Stockton's

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<v Speaker 1>universal basic income pilot project. Mayor Michael Tubbs, I want

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<v Speaker 1>to start by asking you how you ended up involved

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<v Speaker 1>in this project. I mean, here you are, six years

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<v Speaker 1>out of college, a whole six years out of college,

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<v Speaker 1>and the first African American mayor of your city, the

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<v Speaker 1>youngest mayor in the history of your city. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>the most obvious thing to take on as a high

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<v Speaker 1>profile signature project. So how did it come about? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>before being mayors, on city council for four years and

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<v Speaker 1>as a city council member representing the South part of

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<v Speaker 1>the city, poverty was just frequently on my desk as

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<v Speaker 1>an issue we never talked about, but we were solving

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<v Speaker 1>for with all these other means. So we would have

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<v Speaker 1>conversations about employed things like education and healthcare, access to

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<v Speaker 1>healthy foods, and safety, and the crux of all those issues,

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<v Speaker 1>in my opinion, was just to persistent rate of poverty

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<v Speaker 1>and how people just were in areas of lack. So

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<v Speaker 1>then when I became mayor, I challenged my team to

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<v Speaker 1>really think through sort of what can a city do

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<v Speaker 1>to really address issues of poverty. And I told my team,

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<v Speaker 1>I said I don't want anything I've heard before. I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to be bold and a little bit crazy. And

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<v Speaker 1>then they came back with this idea of a basic income.

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<v Speaker 1>I say, well, you know about you guys, it's one

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<v Speaker 1>year in office. I would love to be re elected,

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<v Speaker 1>so maybe we'll wait to our second term to even

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<v Speaker 1>begin this conversation because it seems like, particularly in a

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<v Speaker 1>city that was just struggling from bankruptcy, was a non starter.

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<v Speaker 1>Fast forward to a week after my team came back

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<v Speaker 1>with the idea of basic income, I was at a

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<v Speaker 1>conference on the Future of Work in San Francisco where

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<v Speaker 1>I connected with Natalie Foster, when the co chairs of

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<v Speaker 1>the Economic Security Project, and she said that she was

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<v Speaker 1>looking for a city to pile the basic income in

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<v Speaker 1>Philipdropic we funded, and I said, well, I have a

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<v Speaker 1>task for us to investigate this issue. So then we

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<v Speaker 1>spent six months kind of going back and forth talking

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<v Speaker 1>about what it would look like, sort of some of

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<v Speaker 1>the values we shared, and I finally agreed to do

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<v Speaker 1>it because I realized that too often the conversations about

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<v Speaker 1>poverty or the working poor, even the economic structure of

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<v Speaker 1>our countries, positions people, particularly people of color, particularly women,

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<v Speaker 1>as passive victims or as people who are lazy and

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<v Speaker 1>make bad decisions and need a bunch of coaching and

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<v Speaker 1>financial literacy to defeat poverty. And I thought that Stockton,

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<v Speaker 1>given us diversity, given where we had started from, and

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<v Speaker 1>just given the people I know as mayor, that it

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<v Speaker 1>would be beautiful to a position the people of Stockton, immigrants,

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<v Speaker 1>people of color, women, young people, people who are working

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly hard. As a center of a conversation around what

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<v Speaker 1>does a guarantee income look like in this country? But

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<v Speaker 1>more importantly, what does do you mean? And what type

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<v Speaker 1>of society do we want to live in? So I

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<v Speaker 1>decided to go ahead and launch the pilot. Suki Samurai,

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<v Speaker 1>you're running the program, and I want to learn more

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<v Speaker 1>about the details of how you're going about doing it.

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<v Speaker 1>Usually universal basic income goes to everybody, but this is

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<v Speaker 1>a pilot project, so the money's not going to everybody.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'd like to know how many people are getting

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<v Speaker 1>the money, and perhaps most significantly, how you chose them.

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<v Speaker 1>So the question of who was going to be selected

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<v Speaker 1>was determined after a pretty deep community engagement process. So

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<v Speaker 1>we announced the plan back in October of twenty seventeen,

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<v Speaker 1>and after that we launched into a design phase where

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<v Speaker 1>we asked the community, including elected officials, residents, leaders of nonprofits,

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<v Speaker 1>who they thought should benefit from the program. There were

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<v Speaker 1>three common design ideals that were echoed over and over

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<v Speaker 1>again and that ultimately helped us determine what our selection

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<v Speaker 1>criteria would be. And those three design ideals was that

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<v Speaker 1>the selection process be fair so everyone at about a

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<v Speaker 1>roughly equal chance of being selected. That it be diverse

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<v Speaker 1>and representative of Stockton. So recognizing that diversity is one

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<v Speaker 1>of our greatest assets, making sure that the folks were

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately selected to receive the guaranteed income, we're representative of

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<v Speaker 1>our diversity as well, and that we maximize our ability

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<v Speaker 1>to learn. So Stocktonians recognized the unique opportunity that we

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<v Speaker 1>had to really influence the national conversation around not just

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<v Speaker 1>a guaranteed income, but around an economy that's falling short

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<v Speaker 1>for far too many Americans. So with those three design ideals,

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<v Speaker 1>the selection criteria that we lended on were actually pretty simple.

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<v Speaker 1>One was that folks had to be at least eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>years of age or older, that they lived in Stockton,

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<v Speaker 1>and that they lived in a neighborhood where the area

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<v Speaker 1>meeting income was at forty six thousand dollars or below.

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<v Speaker 1>And that number we settled on because that's Stockton's citywide

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<v Speaker 1>meeting income as well. That was a selection criteria. From there,

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<v Speaker 1>we actually did a randomized selection, so we worked with

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<v Speaker 1>our research team to identify the qualifying neighborhoods where the

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<v Speaker 1>meeting income was again at or below forty six thousand dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>We randomly selected forty two hundred households and sent them

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<v Speaker 1>a letter inviting them to participate. That letter detailed the

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<v Speaker 1>opportunities they had to participate, either as part of our

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<v Speaker 1>treatment group or the folks who are receiving the five dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>or as part of our control group. Of the people

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<v Speaker 1>that responded to that letter and responding entailed going online,

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<v Speaker 1>filling out a consent form one hundred and twenty five,

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<v Speaker 1>or randomly selected to be in our treatment group or

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<v Speaker 1>to receive the five hundred dollars a month. So basically,

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<v Speaker 1>what you're describing is a pretty rigorous design of an

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<v Speaker 1>experiment in a randomized model, which the social scientists like

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<v Speaker 1>to say is the gold standard of the best way

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<v Speaker 1>you can figure out whether something is working. It's too soon,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess, to say whether it's working or not, and

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<v Speaker 1>you don't want to break the structure of the experiment

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<v Speaker 1>by theorizing too soon. But I guess the first question

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<v Speaker 1>that that makes me ask is, let's say it's great.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's say you find after you look through all the

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<v Speaker 1>data after July twenty twenty that there were substantially better

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<v Speaker 1>life outcomes for people who received this five hundred dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a month payment over an eighteen month period. What happens then,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, your city is a city, mister Mayor, of

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<v Speaker 1>just over three hundred thousand people, if I'm not mistaken,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's a pretty far cry from one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five people. Is there a plausible way to take

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<v Speaker 1>this forward, assuming that it works well? No? No, absolutely.

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<v Speaker 1>I think for me, I've used cities as laboratories of democracy,

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<v Speaker 1>meaning that for any intervention, Being a nerd, I like

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<v Speaker 1>to test it and kind of see what works and

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<v Speaker 1>kind of see impacts before making the case for a scale,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why I think pilots and philanthropy could be

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<v Speaker 1>helpful in that regard. But to answer your question, I

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<v Speaker 1>think for any program my fists to take off at scale,

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<v Speaker 1>it couldn't be city led. I don't know if any

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<v Speaker 1>sea that has the resources to provide one hundred dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a month to every resident of as five hundred thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>But what we've seen from design to implementation is bold

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<v Speaker 1>policy proposals and ways to get us closer to there.

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<v Speaker 1>I think of in California, I'm governor in Newsom has

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<v Speaker 1>doubled their earning income tax credit, which is a form

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<v Speaker 1>of giving folks cash and money. Um, there are a

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<v Speaker 1>tax credit. We see folks like send Or Harris with

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<v Speaker 1>her Lift America Act, who is calling for five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a month every month to families in this country

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<v Speaker 1>and make a hundred care or less through the tax code.

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<v Speaker 1>But I also want to take a step back because

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<v Speaker 1>I think if data actually drove decision making, the world

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<v Speaker 1>in general and the society we live in will look

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<v Speaker 1>radically different. So I think the results from the study

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<v Speaker 1>are important. In the data is important, but it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be most important as the stories that we're able

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<v Speaker 1>to tell about people, people who are just like everyone else,

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<v Speaker 1>that the rest of the body politic can see itself

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<v Speaker 1>reflected in who are doing good things with money and

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<v Speaker 1>who are actually contributing. Can I ask a question about

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<v Speaker 1>that though, I mean, so there's two you said two

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<v Speaker 1>different things there, mister Mary, both of which are really interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think there might be a teeny bit of

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<v Speaker 1>difference between them. So one is that data should drive

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<v Speaker 1>more policymaking, and I'm very sympathetic to that view, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's very impressive that you guys are doing

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<v Speaker 1>a proper randomized controlled experiment so that there will be data.

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<v Speaker 1>But then if that's the case, you have to be

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<v Speaker 1>open to the possibility that the data will reveal that

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<v Speaker 1>the program didn't work, didn't achieve any significant effects on

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<v Speaker 1>the group of people who've been who've been getting the money.

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<v Speaker 1>The other angle is the stories angle, that we want

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<v Speaker 1>to get great stories out of a trial like this,

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<v Speaker 1>and for that, I'm like one hundred percent sure that

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<v Speaker 1>with one hundred and twenty five people you'll be able

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<v Speaker 1>to tell some great stories. There will be some stories

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<v Speaker 1>that people who did amazing things and improve their lives

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<v Speaker 1>with a sextra amount of money. But that's not really

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing as the data, right. I mean, from

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<v Speaker 1>the standpoint of an economist who looks at the randomized

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<v Speaker 1>controlled experiment, their whole idea is to stay away from

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<v Speaker 1>the stories, which are the kind of things that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with respect, that's what politicians like. They like anecdotes, they

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<v Speaker 1>like stories to inspire people. So which is it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>is this a case where the stories will help drive

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<v Speaker 1>policy going forward, or is this a case where you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to rely on the hard data as a takeaway. Yeah, well,

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<v Speaker 1>well I think we have. There's a bunch of different

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<v Speaker 1>audiences and constituencies we're speaking to. So I think for

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<v Speaker 1>the economists and for those who actually use data and

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<v Speaker 1>look at data, the data is important, and for me

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<v Speaker 1>it is as well. But being a pragmatist and understanding

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<v Speaker 1>just how not just politics but policy and just how

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<v Speaker 1>things happen in this country, narrative is an important part

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<v Speaker 1>of that. And I think particularly when we're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>basic income, we're also talking about issues of race. We're

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<v Speaker 1>also talking about issues of who's deserving. We're also talking

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<v Speaker 1>about issues attached to work and dignity and purpose and contribution.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about issues of misogyny and sexism. We're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about all these very thorny issues that no amount of

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<v Speaker 1>data has been able to really move our country as

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<v Speaker 1>quickly as I would like us see us move on

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<v Speaker 1>these issues. But I do think kind of humanizing and

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<v Speaker 1>putting stories and faces behind not just the data but

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<v Speaker 1>the idea policy will lead to some forward step. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think I tell people all the time the data,

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<v Speaker 1>the research that's all independent of me. I have no

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<v Speaker 1>interaction with the researchers, I I don't know who was

0:12:22.596 --> 0:12:26.756
<v Speaker 1>selected that that's going to be independent, but regardless of

0:12:26.756 --> 0:12:29.876
<v Speaker 1>what the data shows, I think it's also an opportunity

0:12:29.956 --> 0:12:33.436
<v Speaker 1>to show just how hard people are working. I think

0:12:33.796 --> 0:12:37.156
<v Speaker 1>the stories, if nothing else, will help illustrate that poor

0:12:37.196 --> 0:12:40.836
<v Speaker 1>people aren't lazy, that people who struggle aren't less deserving,

0:12:41.516 --> 0:12:44.116
<v Speaker 1>and that people have dignity that's inherent to their humanity,

0:12:44.236 --> 0:12:45.996
<v Speaker 1>is not attached to what they're able to produce for

0:12:46.036 --> 0:12:49.236
<v Speaker 1>somebody in terms of work. So that's a really interesting

0:12:49.276 --> 0:12:51.076
<v Speaker 1>point that you raise that Suki. I actually wanted to

0:12:51.116 --> 0:12:53.876
<v Speaker 1>ask you about this, and in your talks with people

0:12:53.956 --> 0:12:56.996
<v Speaker 1>in the community and thinking about the design and implementing it,

0:12:57.516 --> 0:13:01.476
<v Speaker 1>have you encountered anybody who has said to you, look,

0:13:01.516 --> 0:13:04.476
<v Speaker 1>I actually don't want this. My own sense of dignity

0:13:04.556 --> 0:13:06.956
<v Speaker 1>is defined as dignity by work. I want to be

0:13:06.956 --> 0:13:09.916
<v Speaker 1>able to show that I've worked for what I've received,

0:13:10.396 --> 0:13:12.356
<v Speaker 1>and I don't want any part of it for that reason.

0:13:12.396 --> 0:13:16.076
<v Speaker 1>Have you encountered people in Stockton who said, I don't

0:13:16.116 --> 0:13:18.676
<v Speaker 1>want to be part of this program because I don't

0:13:18.716 --> 0:13:23.276
<v Speaker 1>like the idea of a handout. We've definitely heard people

0:13:23.356 --> 0:13:26.876
<v Speaker 1>say that they don't want the five hund dollars a month.

0:13:26.916 --> 0:13:29.516
<v Speaker 1>But I think that comes from the point that Mayor

0:13:29.556 --> 0:13:32.396
<v Speaker 1>raised earlier, from more of the racialized and gendered stereotypes

0:13:32.436 --> 0:13:35.996
<v Speaker 1>that exist around the public welfare system at large. A

0:13:36.036 --> 0:13:39.156
<v Speaker 1>lot of folks, definitely when the guaranteed income first started,

0:13:39.196 --> 0:13:40.756
<v Speaker 1>felt like there was going to be a catch, that

0:13:40.836 --> 0:13:42.516
<v Speaker 1>there was no way that they could just get the

0:13:42.556 --> 0:13:45.196
<v Speaker 1>five hundred dollars a month and there wouldn't be strings attached,

0:13:46.076 --> 0:13:48.756
<v Speaker 1>and it's taken at least I mean, it took until

0:13:48.756 --> 0:13:51.196
<v Speaker 1>at least a six seven month mark where people finally

0:13:51.196 --> 0:13:55.036
<v Speaker 1>started believing that a government or an elected official really

0:13:55.076 --> 0:13:57.116
<v Speaker 1>could believe in them enough and trust them enough to

0:13:57.156 --> 0:13:59.636
<v Speaker 1>give them five hundred dollars a month without there being

0:13:59.716 --> 0:14:02.436
<v Speaker 1>anything attached, without it needing to be attached to work.

0:14:02.956 --> 0:14:04.796
<v Speaker 1>And what we see is that the five dollars a

0:14:04.796 --> 0:14:07.076
<v Speaker 1>month is really just an income floor. The five dollars

0:14:07.116 --> 0:14:09.716
<v Speaker 1>a month is not stopping folks from working. If anything,

0:14:09.796 --> 0:14:12.556
<v Speaker 1>it's allowing people to find better jobs. So I think

0:14:13.636 --> 0:14:16.956
<v Speaker 1>to answer your question, there's definitely our country has a

0:14:16.956 --> 0:14:20.996
<v Speaker 1>long history of attaching values to the money and to

0:14:22.036 --> 0:14:24.076
<v Speaker 1>quote unquote handouts that we give to our folks and

0:14:24.116 --> 0:14:26.636
<v Speaker 1>it's taken for our recipients a couple of months to

0:14:26.676 --> 0:14:29.556
<v Speaker 1>really break that down and realize that an elected official

0:14:29.636 --> 0:14:32.076
<v Speaker 1>and really is here to see them thrive regardless of

0:14:32.116 --> 0:14:35.876
<v Speaker 1>what they do with the cash. So you're recently graduated

0:14:35.916 --> 0:14:39.916
<v Speaker 1>from Stanford and that's in the heart of Silicon Valley,

0:14:40.116 --> 0:14:44.876
<v Speaker 1>and the Economic Security Project also comes out of Silicon Valley. Recently,

0:14:45.356 --> 0:14:48.996
<v Speaker 1>Andrew Yang, who's a former tech entrepreneur, has put the

0:14:49.036 --> 0:14:51.916
<v Speaker 1>topic of universal basic income on the national agenda in

0:14:52.036 --> 0:14:56.716
<v Speaker 1>his presidential run. What is it about Silicon Valley and

0:14:56.836 --> 0:15:00.676
<v Speaker 1>universal basic income? Why is there some kind of a match?

0:15:00.876 --> 0:15:04.396
<v Speaker 1>It seems even Elon musk as As embraced the idea.

0:15:04.516 --> 0:15:08.876
<v Speaker 1>Why is there this kind of association between the valley

0:15:08.916 --> 0:15:12.836
<v Speaker 1>and tech and on the one hand, and the idea

0:15:12.876 --> 0:15:15.956
<v Speaker 1>of a universal basic income on the other. I think

0:15:15.956 --> 0:15:20.436
<v Speaker 1>if the close association between tech and universal basic income

0:15:20.516 --> 0:15:22.756
<v Speaker 1>is probably rooted in the fact that the folks who

0:15:22.796 --> 0:15:25.596
<v Speaker 1>are in Silicon Valley are most are the closest to

0:15:26.556 --> 0:15:30.036
<v Speaker 1>automation and artificial intelligence, and so when they're thinking about

0:15:30.116 --> 0:15:32.956
<v Speaker 1>the economy, they're looking at it from generally from a

0:15:32.956 --> 0:15:35.476
<v Speaker 1>more future oriented lens in which they see that you know,

0:15:35.476 --> 0:15:38.916
<v Speaker 1>the robots are coming, which will lead to displacement a

0:15:38.916 --> 0:15:42.476
<v Speaker 1>lot of workers, and that will in turn disproportionately impact

0:15:42.596 --> 0:15:45.916
<v Speaker 1>quote unquote originally thought of as low skilled workers who

0:15:45.996 --> 0:15:48.916
<v Speaker 1>tend to be people of color, and a universal basic

0:15:48.956 --> 0:15:51.956
<v Speaker 1>income is positive as a one solution that could mitigate

0:15:51.996 --> 0:15:54.516
<v Speaker 1>the effects of automation. I think for folks who are

0:15:54.556 --> 0:15:57.236
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more removed from the Silicon Valley, it's

0:15:57.316 --> 0:15:59.356
<v Speaker 1>a guaranteed income as posed a solution to an economy

0:15:59.396 --> 0:16:01.996
<v Speaker 1>that's falling short for far too many Americans today. So

0:16:01.996 --> 0:16:04.996
<v Speaker 1>I'll be recognized that the robots are indeed coming. It's

0:16:04.996 --> 0:16:08.076
<v Speaker 1>also a matter of today one in for Stocktonians lives

0:16:08.076 --> 0:16:10.156
<v Speaker 1>in poverty and today away teens in the nation for

0:16:10.236 --> 0:16:12.636
<v Speaker 1>talent poverty. So how can we use a guaranteed income

0:16:12.636 --> 0:16:16.356
<v Speaker 1>to address and make the economy better in this moment?

0:16:17.636 --> 0:16:20.916
<v Speaker 1>Mayor Tubbs, can I ask you if I were designing

0:16:20.916 --> 0:16:23.796
<v Speaker 1>a universal a basic income program, I wouldn't want it

0:16:23.796 --> 0:16:25.276
<v Speaker 1>to be universal. I mean, one of the things that

0:16:25.316 --> 0:16:27.836
<v Speaker 1>I thought was impressive about your program is that you

0:16:27.996 --> 0:16:31.316
<v Speaker 1>targeted it to some degree at people of lower income,

0:16:31.396 --> 0:16:34.436
<v Speaker 1>just by choosing neighborhoods that were at or below the

0:16:34.476 --> 0:16:37.996
<v Speaker 1>city's median income line. I mean, that's not targeting narrow poverty,

0:16:38.076 --> 0:16:40.556
<v Speaker 1>but it's at least trying to avoid giving away too

0:16:40.636 --> 0:16:42.756
<v Speaker 1>much of this money to people who genuinely don't need it.

0:16:43.436 --> 0:16:45.916
<v Speaker 1>And I'm wondering, how do you feel about the universal

0:16:45.956 --> 0:16:48.636
<v Speaker 1>part of universal basic income? I mean, my instinct, again

0:16:48.676 --> 0:16:51.996
<v Speaker 1>this is just speaking for myself, is that there's something

0:16:52.036 --> 0:16:56.476
<v Speaker 1>crazy about giving people who don't need large amounts of

0:16:56.476 --> 0:16:59.236
<v Speaker 1>money this kind of money. And I understand that the

0:16:59.276 --> 0:17:01.756
<v Speaker 1>logic behind it is it gives greater dignity if it's

0:17:01.756 --> 0:17:04.596
<v Speaker 1>available universally to everybody. But there you're just trading off

0:17:04.636 --> 0:17:09.756
<v Speaker 1>dignity against significant redistribution of income in a situation where

0:17:10.076 --> 0:17:13.476
<v Speaker 1>programs are extremely costly. So do you how do you

0:17:13.476 --> 0:17:17.236
<v Speaker 1>feel about the universal part of universal income? I'm not

0:17:17.276 --> 0:17:22.356
<v Speaker 1>gonna lie that I actually struggle. I struggle with that. Yeah,

0:17:22.436 --> 0:17:26.796
<v Speaker 1>And speaking candidly, I think if it was to go

0:17:26.876 --> 0:17:30.716
<v Speaker 1>at scale, it probably couldn't start us universal anyway. I mean,

0:17:30.836 --> 0:17:33.676
<v Speaker 1>Chris Hughes talks about doing some sort of financial tax

0:17:34.036 --> 0:17:36.836
<v Speaker 1>which would help folks making fifty k below with the

0:17:36.876 --> 0:17:40.076
<v Speaker 1>income floor Sendor Harris with her and hundred k below

0:17:40.116 --> 0:17:42.716
<v Speaker 1>for families I think we have to start there and iterate,

0:17:43.236 --> 0:17:47.076
<v Speaker 1>but I would say I've actually have begin to understand

0:17:47.276 --> 0:17:51.036
<v Speaker 1>why universality makes sense, and I think it goes to

0:17:51.076 --> 0:17:54.556
<v Speaker 1>your point around kind of dignity, but also re establishing

0:17:54.836 --> 0:17:59.196
<v Speaker 1>this idea of the commons in terms of and extending

0:17:59.196 --> 0:18:02.276
<v Speaker 1>the social contract. So when I think of a lot

0:18:02.316 --> 0:18:06.956
<v Speaker 1>of sort of public goods, whether it's public schools, even

0:18:06.996 --> 0:18:10.036
<v Speaker 1>extremely wealthy people have access to those things, although they

0:18:10.076 --> 0:18:12.636
<v Speaker 1>may not need them, UM, I think that it does

0:18:12.836 --> 0:18:15.956
<v Speaker 1>build sort of the body politics, if you will. That

0:18:16.236 --> 0:18:19.756
<v Speaker 1>and this idea of dignity has kept resurfacing in terms

0:18:19.756 --> 0:18:24.436
<v Speaker 1>of people don't want to feel like they're they're needy,

0:18:24.556 --> 0:18:27.916
<v Speaker 1>or they're less than UM. They want to feel like, oh,

0:18:27.956 --> 0:18:30.596
<v Speaker 1>this is something that we're all getting UM. And I

0:18:30.596 --> 0:18:33.556
<v Speaker 1>do think there's some there's some value to that UM.

0:18:33.596 --> 0:18:35.516
<v Speaker 1>But I even when we were designing the program, I

0:18:35.556 --> 0:18:39.196
<v Speaker 1>really struggled with the UM at or below the median

0:18:39.236 --> 0:18:41.996
<v Speaker 1>income line, or or the fact that there's some people

0:18:42.036 --> 0:18:44.716
<v Speaker 1>receiving the money who make more than me, who make

0:18:44.756 --> 0:18:48.156
<v Speaker 1>eight hundred K. But then well, I've also learned it's

0:18:48.156 --> 0:18:51.396
<v Speaker 1>that even people who make eighty ninety one fifty two

0:18:51.476 --> 0:18:55.316
<v Speaker 1>hundred k, particularly in areas that are more a lot

0:18:55.396 --> 0:18:58.396
<v Speaker 1>less affordable than Stockton, are still struggling. UM and I

0:18:58.476 --> 0:19:01.396
<v Speaker 1>still have high rates to student debt, UM still may

0:19:01.436 --> 0:19:04.836
<v Speaker 1>not have the best healthcare, and still could use a

0:19:04.876 --> 0:19:08.316
<v Speaker 1>little income ushion as well. So i've i've I've relented

0:19:08.396 --> 0:19:11.196
<v Speaker 1>that fact, and I think that whatever is And also

0:19:11.356 --> 0:19:13.236
<v Speaker 1>last thing, obviously, I also think in terms of what's

0:19:13.276 --> 0:19:17.796
<v Speaker 1>politically possible, given the history of this country and the

0:19:17.836 --> 0:19:22.036
<v Speaker 1>way we other folks, the only way something like this

0:19:22.116 --> 0:19:25.076
<v Speaker 1>we would happen is if the majority of a lot

0:19:25.076 --> 0:19:27.996
<v Speaker 1>of people, particularly people who vote, which are particularly middle

0:19:27.996 --> 0:19:31.916
<v Speaker 1>class people, can see themselves reflecting actually benefiting tagibly from

0:19:31.916 --> 0:19:34.356
<v Speaker 1>said program. So for those reasons, I think it has

0:19:34.356 --> 0:19:37.756
<v Speaker 1>to be, if not universal, as close universal as possible.

0:19:38.756 --> 0:19:40.396
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you ended up that answer in a little

0:19:40.396 --> 0:19:42.796
<v Speaker 1>bit different than the place that you started. I mean

0:19:42.876 --> 0:19:46.156
<v Speaker 1>I when it comes to public schools, I see the

0:19:46.236 --> 0:19:48.356
<v Speaker 1>argument very much that we actually have an incentive as

0:19:48.356 --> 0:19:51.036
<v Speaker 1>a society to try to get the people who have

0:19:51.076 --> 0:19:54.396
<v Speaker 1>the greatest resources to stay in the public schools, precisely

0:19:54.436 --> 0:19:56.276
<v Speaker 1>so we will have a common sense of community and

0:19:56.276 --> 0:19:59.036
<v Speaker 1>so that people with resources will invest to the extent

0:19:59.076 --> 0:20:03.596
<v Speaker 1>possible in those public institutions, rather than diverting their resources

0:20:03.636 --> 0:20:07.316
<v Speaker 1>and their efforts to private institutions. Here where you're talking

0:20:07.316 --> 0:20:12.076
<v Speaker 1>about essentially check, you know, without a social service support

0:20:12.156 --> 0:20:15.796
<v Speaker 1>network associated with it, it does seem to me that

0:20:15.916 --> 0:20:18.956
<v Speaker 1>there's it's harder to make the case that making it

0:20:19.036 --> 0:20:21.716
<v Speaker 1>universal will give everybody a sense of buying. I do

0:20:21.836 --> 0:20:25.156
<v Speaker 1>understand that it might reduce the sense of indignity that

0:20:25.236 --> 0:20:27.436
<v Speaker 1>some people might might suffer, and then we're just trading

0:20:27.436 --> 0:20:30.876
<v Speaker 1>off in a very hard, tragic choice people's feelings of

0:20:30.916 --> 0:20:33.356
<v Speaker 1>dignity against the question of how much money will have

0:20:33.436 --> 0:20:38.236
<v Speaker 1>to will actually have to hand out. Suki, I wonder

0:20:38.476 --> 0:20:41.396
<v Speaker 1>what are the biggest challenges that you've been facing in implementation?

0:20:42.036 --> 0:20:45.436
<v Speaker 1>What are the problems that you've faced so far. I

0:20:45.476 --> 0:20:47.756
<v Speaker 1>think one of the biggest challenges that we've faced has

0:20:47.796 --> 0:20:50.396
<v Speaker 1>been Sama Tubs says this all the time, that change

0:20:50.396 --> 0:20:52.396
<v Speaker 1>moves out the speed of trust. The same is definitely

0:20:52.436 --> 0:20:57.356
<v Speaker 1>true for program implementation. So we've seen since we launched

0:20:57.356 --> 0:20:59.436
<v Speaker 1>in the very beginning of fun the ways in which

0:20:59.476 --> 0:21:02.196
<v Speaker 1>a lack of trust in our institutions has impacted our

0:21:02.196 --> 0:21:05.196
<v Speaker 1>ability to implement. So I'll give a couple of examples.

0:21:05.596 --> 0:21:08.436
<v Speaker 1>The first is that when we sent out our letters,

0:21:09.316 --> 0:21:12.716
<v Speaker 1>as I mentioned earlier, our recruitment, we did address based recruitment,

0:21:13.036 --> 0:21:15.956
<v Speaker 1>and we sent letters out to randomly selected addresses inviting

0:21:15.996 --> 0:21:18.636
<v Speaker 1>them to participate. So when we sent the letters out,

0:21:18.676 --> 0:21:21.716
<v Speaker 1>we originally only sent a thousand letters because we didn't

0:21:21.716 --> 0:21:24.276
<v Speaker 1>want to fabricate false hope in a city where there's

0:21:24.316 --> 0:21:26.036
<v Speaker 1>a lot of need and a lot of folks who

0:21:26.236 --> 0:21:28.636
<v Speaker 1>need an extra five hundred dollars a month. But when

0:21:28.636 --> 0:21:31.396
<v Speaker 1>we sent those those thousand letters out and we started

0:21:31.396 --> 0:21:34.116
<v Speaker 1>monitoring the response rates, we realized that though we had

0:21:34.276 --> 0:21:37.076
<v Speaker 1>enough responses to fill the treatment group, we didn't necessarily

0:21:37.116 --> 0:21:40.076
<v Speaker 1>have a representative sample of Stockton, and not as many

0:21:40.116 --> 0:21:42.396
<v Speaker 1>folks responded as we hoped. And so then we sent

0:21:42.476 --> 0:21:44.516
<v Speaker 1>out and you thought that their responses might actually have

0:21:44.556 --> 0:21:48.836
<v Speaker 1>been skewed by education or governmental trust or some other thing.

0:21:48.876 --> 0:21:50.156
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I certainly have to say that if I

0:21:50.196 --> 0:21:53.236
<v Speaker 1>got a letter in the mail saying, you know, hey,

0:21:53.236 --> 0:21:56.436
<v Speaker 1>would you like to join a survey, just a pilot program,

0:21:56.436 --> 0:21:57.876
<v Speaker 1>and we're going to pay you an extra five hundred

0:21:57.876 --> 0:21:59.836
<v Speaker 1>dollars a month for nothing, I think I would be

0:21:59.876 --> 0:22:02.476
<v Speaker 1>highly skeptical of that. I think I would be very

0:22:02.516 --> 0:22:05.956
<v Speaker 1>doubtful exactly, and we heard and it's something that's been

0:22:06.036 --> 0:22:08.836
<v Speaker 1>echoed and what we've heard from our recipients over and

0:22:08.916 --> 0:22:12.156
<v Speaker 1>over again. So when the recipients were notified that they

0:22:12.156 --> 0:22:14.716
<v Speaker 1>had been selected to participate in SEED, they were brought

0:22:14.756 --> 0:22:17.436
<v Speaker 1>in for an onboarding session, which is still one on

0:22:17.436 --> 0:22:20.836
<v Speaker 1>one orientation with a member of the SEED staff. And

0:22:20.876 --> 0:22:24.076
<v Speaker 1>even in that orientation session, folks were expressing their disbelief

0:22:24.316 --> 0:22:26.996
<v Speaker 1>and their distrust that in a time when the federal

0:22:26.996 --> 0:22:30.796
<v Speaker 1>government was shut down, in a time when the ice

0:22:30.956 --> 0:22:34.156
<v Speaker 1>raids were increasing and more and more folks of Hispanic

0:22:34.276 --> 0:22:38.756
<v Speaker 1>Latin ex origin we're actually just hiding themselves in their homes,

0:22:38.796 --> 0:22:41.396
<v Speaker 1>that an elected official could actually want to give something

0:22:41.396 --> 0:22:46.436
<v Speaker 1>for nothing. So that that lack of trust and you know,

0:22:46.836 --> 0:22:48.716
<v Speaker 1>thinking that we were scamed, that we just wanted to

0:22:48.756 --> 0:22:52.196
<v Speaker 1>collect information for other purposes. That was a common thread

0:22:52.236 --> 0:22:54.076
<v Speaker 1>that really impact our ability to implement when we were

0:22:54.196 --> 0:22:57.116
<v Speaker 1>just getting started. Mayor Tubs, do you think that you know,

0:22:57.596 --> 0:23:01.516
<v Speaker 1>all politics is local and the retail politics of a

0:23:01.556 --> 0:23:04.356
<v Speaker 1>city of three hundred thousand plus is very very local.

0:23:04.436 --> 0:23:06.356
<v Speaker 1>So I'm sure you know all your neighborhoods and I'm

0:23:06.356 --> 0:23:07.996
<v Speaker 1>sure on a lot of blocks. You know a lot

0:23:07.996 --> 0:23:09.516
<v Speaker 1>of your constituents and if you if you get re

0:23:09.516 --> 0:23:11.916
<v Speaker 1>elected every year, you've got to be out there, you know,

0:23:11.996 --> 0:23:16.516
<v Speaker 1>hearing and talking to people. Are you worried about jealousy

0:23:16.676 --> 0:23:20.516
<v Speaker 1>from neighbors who say so and so got lucky. You know,

0:23:20.596 --> 0:23:23.156
<v Speaker 1>Thomas got lucky, and you know the city gave him

0:23:23.196 --> 0:23:26.116
<v Speaker 1>nine thousand dollars. Not so much me and my neighbor

0:23:26.156 --> 0:23:27.836
<v Speaker 1>and my other neighbor. I mean one hundred and twenty

0:23:27.836 --> 0:23:31.116
<v Speaker 1>five families or people. Is it's enough people to be

0:23:31.196 --> 0:23:34.356
<v Speaker 1>known about, but it's also a small enough people that

0:23:34.436 --> 0:23:37.116
<v Speaker 1>a significant number of people might be kind of jealous.

0:23:37.436 --> 0:23:40.436
<v Speaker 1>Have you encountered that yet? Are you imagining that that

0:23:40.476 --> 0:23:42.756
<v Speaker 1>could happen? Or do you think everyone in Stockton is

0:23:42.796 --> 0:23:45.716
<v Speaker 1>such a giving, big person that they wouldn't mind that

0:23:45.756 --> 0:23:48.236
<v Speaker 1>their neighbor makes nine thousand dollars And they don't. So

0:23:48.316 --> 0:23:50.276
<v Speaker 1>what was the fascinating is that we also had this

0:23:50.396 --> 0:23:55.636
<v Speaker 1>conversation during the design phase, and what we've found since

0:23:55.756 --> 0:23:59.156
<v Speaker 1>disbursements is that most folks are comfortable in that I

0:23:59.236 --> 0:24:03.556
<v Speaker 1>didn't pick it was random. They believe that people believe

0:24:03.596 --> 0:24:05.236
<v Speaker 1>in the randomness. They think it really was random. A

0:24:05.236 --> 0:24:06.956
<v Speaker 1>lot of people believe in ranmothers because it's people who

0:24:06.956 --> 0:24:09.636
<v Speaker 1>hate me who got envelopes who said, there's no way

0:24:10.116 --> 0:24:11.836
<v Speaker 1>if he saw how I talked about him on Facebook

0:24:11.876 --> 0:24:13.596
<v Speaker 1>or they got this envelope right. So I think the

0:24:14.796 --> 0:24:19.156
<v Speaker 1>random lottery really kind of innocuate that. As from all that,

0:24:19.436 --> 0:24:21.716
<v Speaker 1>I think part of it is I've been very clear

0:24:22.316 --> 0:24:26.716
<v Speaker 1>with the community in that there's all types of benefits programs,

0:24:26.796 --> 0:24:30.396
<v Speaker 1>nonprofit services in this city that do good work that

0:24:30.436 --> 0:24:33.316
<v Speaker 1>doesn't serve everybody, and it doesn't make them less good.

0:24:34.436 --> 0:24:38.196
<v Speaker 1>And this is not a departure, very good argument, exact

0:24:38.236 --> 0:24:41.036
<v Speaker 1>departure from the status quo. That's just it's another program

0:24:41.076 --> 0:24:43.636
<v Speaker 1>that everyone has a chance to qualify for if you

0:24:43.716 --> 0:24:46.476
<v Speaker 1>beat these requirements, but everybody won't qualify for. And I

0:24:46.556 --> 0:24:49.636
<v Speaker 1>think for the most part people I have been accepting

0:24:49.676 --> 0:24:52.436
<v Speaker 1>of that. And then I also think that most of

0:24:52.436 --> 0:24:57.076
<v Speaker 1>the recipients are not telling people that they received it,

0:24:57.196 --> 0:25:00.796
<v Speaker 1>which is their choice. That's probably clever, yeah, probably smart,

0:25:01.316 --> 0:25:04.156
<v Speaker 1>But when we were first designing it, that was actually

0:25:04.196 --> 0:25:06.276
<v Speaker 1>a big issue because people were saying, you're just gonna

0:25:06.276 --> 0:25:08.756
<v Speaker 1>pick your friends, You're going to pick this certain neighborhood,

0:25:09.236 --> 0:25:12.236
<v Speaker 1>where you're from. A subtext was as only going to

0:25:12.276 --> 0:25:17.116
<v Speaker 1>pick black people. So the random interesting, Yeah, very interesting,

0:25:17.876 --> 0:25:20.116
<v Speaker 1>But the random will actually helped to octuvate us from

0:25:20.116 --> 0:25:21.916
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that moving forward, which bodes well for

0:25:21.916 --> 0:25:24.356
<v Speaker 1>all of us. I want to ask both of you

0:25:24.436 --> 0:25:28.116
<v Speaker 1>about what I see is sort of the big national

0:25:28.196 --> 0:25:31.796
<v Speaker 1>debate downside of the universal basic income question, and it's this.

0:25:32.516 --> 0:25:35.036
<v Speaker 1>It seems to be that some of the supporters of

0:25:35.156 --> 0:25:39.276
<v Speaker 1>universal basic income sort of see it as a substitute

0:25:39.796 --> 0:25:44.956
<v Speaker 1>for all other forms of social service programs, for unemployment benefits,

0:25:45.156 --> 0:25:48.876
<v Speaker 1>for welfare, because I think in the minds of some people,

0:25:48.876 --> 0:25:54.076
<v Speaker 1>and especially some kind of libertarian leaning tech types, the ideas,

0:25:54.076 --> 0:25:56.476
<v Speaker 1>you know, government programs don't work very well, so let's

0:25:56.476 --> 0:25:59.756
<v Speaker 1>simplify by eliminating those government programs and then using the

0:25:59.796 --> 0:26:02.636
<v Speaker 1>money we save it from those government programs to provide

0:26:02.676 --> 0:26:07.116
<v Speaker 1>universal basic income. If your program ends up working well,

0:26:07.476 --> 0:26:10.556
<v Speaker 1>are you concerned that it might provide data that actually

0:26:10.636 --> 0:26:13.716
<v Speaker 1>is then used to support the position that says this

0:26:13.796 --> 0:26:17.996
<v Speaker 1>is our solution to our social ills, going alongside the

0:26:18.036 --> 0:26:21.836
<v Speaker 1>elimination of some traditional healthic assistance programs. So he maybe

0:26:21.876 --> 0:26:24.596
<v Speaker 1>let's start with you. Sure, So the good thing is

0:26:24.676 --> 0:26:27.636
<v Speaker 1>that are for us, guaranteed income is really meant to

0:26:27.636 --> 0:26:30.316
<v Speaker 1>be supplemental to existing benefits, So a lot of our

0:26:30.356 --> 0:26:34.036
<v Speaker 1>folks are actually receiving other public benefits. So just strictly

0:26:34.116 --> 0:26:37.316
<v Speaker 1>technically speaking, the data won't be able to really isolate

0:26:37.356 --> 0:26:40.596
<v Speaker 1>the effects of a guaranteed income from good good technical answer.

0:26:40.676 --> 0:26:42.956
<v Speaker 1>I like that, and I'll tell you let Mary take

0:26:42.956 --> 0:26:47.036
<v Speaker 1>the visionary answer. Well, Noah, think for me, I've been

0:26:47.236 --> 0:26:53.476
<v Speaker 1>very very very clear that a basic income, for me,

0:26:53.516 --> 0:26:56.396
<v Speaker 1>it's not progress to replace what we've built to build

0:26:56.436 --> 0:27:00.996
<v Speaker 1>something else. And I come from basic income not from

0:27:00.996 --> 0:27:04.276
<v Speaker 1>a libertarian tradition, but from a civil rights tradition, from

0:27:04.356 --> 0:27:06.956
<v Speaker 1>the work of doctor King and the Black Panthers and others,

0:27:07.756 --> 0:27:11.916
<v Speaker 1>in that we need those other things as well. The

0:27:11.956 --> 0:27:14.956
<v Speaker 1>more we extend the social safety net, the better are

0:27:15.036 --> 0:27:19.156
<v Speaker 1>we are. So I definitely think that what's interesting about

0:27:19.196 --> 0:27:23.916
<v Speaker 1>this conversation is that there's so many different, usually competing

0:27:23.996 --> 0:27:29.116
<v Speaker 1>interest around this solution. But I think for me, my

0:27:29.436 --> 0:27:32.796
<v Speaker 1>stake in the ground and my clarity is that no,

0:27:32.916 --> 0:27:35.676
<v Speaker 1>this is meant to be additive, to be an extension

0:27:36.076 --> 0:27:39.116
<v Speaker 1>of our social safety and extension of the social contract

0:27:39.236 --> 0:27:41.476
<v Speaker 1>is to build on what we already have because everything

0:27:41.476 --> 0:27:44.716
<v Speaker 1>we have isn't broken, but there's a realization to everything

0:27:44.716 --> 0:27:46.916
<v Speaker 1>we have also is imperfect, and people are still struggling.

0:27:47.476 --> 0:27:51.116
<v Speaker 1>I think the idea of this experiment is terrific, and

0:27:51.596 --> 0:27:55.076
<v Speaker 1>here's hoping that the data support you and that it

0:27:55.116 --> 0:27:58.396
<v Speaker 1>makes a real contribution to the ongoing question of what

0:27:58.436 --> 0:28:00.316
<v Speaker 1>we can do to make our country a fairer and

0:28:00.316 --> 0:28:02.916
<v Speaker 1>a more just place going forward. And I'm really grateful

0:28:02.916 --> 0:28:04.716
<v Speaker 1>to both of you for joining me. Thank you, Thank

0:28:04.756 --> 0:28:13.756
<v Speaker 1>you so much for having us. Thank you. Universal basic

0:28:13.796 --> 0:28:18.996
<v Speaker 1>income is a genuinely fascinating experiment. And if we think

0:28:19.276 --> 0:28:22.516
<v Speaker 1>that in the foreseeable future, some huge number of Americans

0:28:22.516 --> 0:28:25.316
<v Speaker 1>are actually going to lose their jobs as a result

0:28:25.396 --> 0:28:30.316
<v Speaker 1>of increasing automation and machine learning tools, then we kind

0:28:30.316 --> 0:28:32.956
<v Speaker 1>of have to try. That is to say, we need

0:28:32.996 --> 0:28:36.436
<v Speaker 1>to look for every option that we might have to

0:28:36.556 --> 0:28:39.636
<v Speaker 1>enable people to keep some stream of income in the

0:28:39.636 --> 0:28:44.236
<v Speaker 1>face of what could be devastating unemployment. Stockton, California is

0:28:44.236 --> 0:28:47.636
<v Speaker 1>a pretty small sized experiment, but it may produce data

0:28:47.796 --> 0:28:50.756
<v Speaker 1>they will enable us to make wiser judgments about whether

0:28:50.876 --> 0:28:53.756
<v Speaker 1>universal basic income should be part of how we go

0:28:53.836 --> 0:28:57.476
<v Speaker 1>about solving the problem of unemployment in the future. In

0:28:57.516 --> 0:29:00.996
<v Speaker 1>any case, it's a fascinating story from an unusual place,

0:29:01.276 --> 0:29:02.716
<v Speaker 1>and we're going to learn a lot about it in

0:29:02.716 --> 0:29:06.676
<v Speaker 1>the future. And now the sound of the week, I'm

0:29:06.716 --> 0:29:13.196
<v Speaker 1>gathered here with dozens of my congressional colleagues underground in

0:29:13.236 --> 0:29:16.876
<v Speaker 1>the basement of the Capitol because if behind those doors

0:29:16.916 --> 0:29:21.556
<v Speaker 1>they intend to overturn the results of an American presidential election,

0:29:22.036 --> 0:29:25.316
<v Speaker 1>we want to know what's going on. That's Congressman Matt

0:29:25.356 --> 0:29:29.356
<v Speaker 1>Gates from Florida this Wednesday, when a group of Republicans

0:29:29.556 --> 0:29:33.636
<v Speaker 1>tried to barge into closed door impeachment hearings being led

0:29:33.676 --> 0:29:37.356
<v Speaker 1>by the House Intelligence Committee. A lot has happened in

0:29:37.356 --> 0:29:40.876
<v Speaker 1>the impeachment inquiry this week, and what's remarkable is that

0:29:41.356 --> 0:29:46.836
<v Speaker 1>until now almost everything significant has happened behind closed doors.

0:29:47.996 --> 0:29:51.036
<v Speaker 1>Democrats who are controlling the impeachment inquiry have a couple

0:29:51.076 --> 0:29:54.836
<v Speaker 1>of justifications for the secrecy. The first thing they say

0:29:54.956 --> 0:29:57.876
<v Speaker 1>is that matters of national security could potentially be involved.

0:29:58.156 --> 0:30:00.836
<v Speaker 1>And in fact, the House Intelligence Committee is accustomed to

0:30:00.836 --> 0:30:03.676
<v Speaker 1>doing all kinds of secret hearings, which it does in

0:30:03.676 --> 0:30:06.916
<v Speaker 1>a special facility called a skiff, which is exactly the

0:30:06.956 --> 0:30:09.876
<v Speaker 1>facility that the other Republicans wanted to get into this week.

0:30:10.636 --> 0:30:13.996
<v Speaker 1>Another explanation the Democrats provide is to say that at

0:30:13.996 --> 0:30:18.476
<v Speaker 1>an early stage in any criminal investigation, you don't talk

0:30:18.516 --> 0:30:21.996
<v Speaker 1>to the witnesses in public. You talk to them in private.

0:30:22.836 --> 0:30:25.236
<v Speaker 1>Yet a third thing Democrats have been saying is that

0:30:25.316 --> 0:30:29.236
<v Speaker 1>these aren't hearings at all, their depositions in which sworn

0:30:29.316 --> 0:30:34.236
<v Speaker 1>statements are taken from witnesses. Now, all of these justifications

0:30:34.276 --> 0:30:37.156
<v Speaker 1>have some truth to them, and it's also true that

0:30:37.236 --> 0:30:41.716
<v Speaker 1>historically in investigators in earlier impeachment inquiries have done lots

0:30:41.716 --> 0:30:45.596
<v Speaker 1>of their questioning of witnesses in private before reaching the

0:30:45.636 --> 0:30:51.196
<v Speaker 1>point of public hearings. But these arguments also have distinct limitations.

0:30:51.876 --> 0:30:55.316
<v Speaker 1>The main limitation is that an impeachment process is ultimately

0:30:55.316 --> 0:30:59.276
<v Speaker 1>a political process. It's political in the sense that impeachment

0:30:59.356 --> 0:31:02.036
<v Speaker 1>is conducted by the House of Representatives, which is an

0:31:02.076 --> 0:31:05.476
<v Speaker 1>elected body, and subsequent trial takes place in front of

0:31:05.516 --> 0:31:08.756
<v Speaker 1>the Senate, which is also an elected body. That means

0:31:08.796 --> 0:31:11.716
<v Speaker 1>that when people's representatives are going to be directly involved

0:31:11.756 --> 0:31:15.436
<v Speaker 1>in doing the investigation, in mounting the charges, and ultimately

0:31:15.476 --> 0:31:18.396
<v Speaker 1>in deciding whether they're true or not, the public is

0:31:18.476 --> 0:31:20.836
<v Speaker 1>always going to want to have a say, and for

0:31:20.876 --> 0:31:23.236
<v Speaker 1>the public to have a say, the public has to

0:31:23.276 --> 0:31:26.756
<v Speaker 1>have information, and so, at least in my view, the

0:31:26.796 --> 0:31:29.516
<v Speaker 1>Democrats are reaching the point where they're running out of

0:31:29.596 --> 0:31:33.556
<v Speaker 1>room to continue the private, secret side of the inquiry.

0:31:33.596 --> 0:31:35.836
<v Speaker 1>They're going to have to pretty soon do what they've

0:31:35.836 --> 0:31:39.796
<v Speaker 1>been promising for a while now, shift to public hearings

0:31:39.836 --> 0:31:43.356
<v Speaker 1>in which the entire world and the TV cameras will

0:31:43.396 --> 0:31:46.036
<v Speaker 1>be able to see what the witnesses have to say.

0:31:46.836 --> 0:31:49.276
<v Speaker 1>Now that might seem simple or easy, but from the

0:31:49.276 --> 0:31:52.636
<v Speaker 1>standpoint of the Democrats it's not going to be. The

0:31:52.716 --> 0:31:56.436
<v Speaker 1>big challenges that the Democrats face are really two. First,

0:31:56.876 --> 0:32:00.076
<v Speaker 1>we're already starting to know the story. We more or

0:32:00.156 --> 0:32:03.316
<v Speaker 1>less know what the allegations against Donald Trump are, and

0:32:03.476 --> 0:32:06.556
<v Speaker 1>we more or less know that they're true. The President

0:32:06.876 --> 0:32:10.596
<v Speaker 1>has already more or less acknowledged that he pressured Ukraine

0:32:10.796 --> 0:32:15.476
<v Speaker 1>to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. As a consequence, when

0:32:15.476 --> 0:32:18.796
<v Speaker 1>the witnesses appear and testify, the news media may be

0:32:18.916 --> 0:32:22.396
<v Speaker 1>a little bit less interested in the details of exactly

0:32:22.436 --> 0:32:25.436
<v Speaker 1>who did what and when. Then they've been until now,

0:32:25.636 --> 0:32:29.516
<v Speaker 1>when we've gotten a steady diet of leaked secret information.

0:32:29.916 --> 0:32:32.556
<v Speaker 1>After all, it's pretty exciting to have leaked secret information

0:32:32.596 --> 0:32:34.996
<v Speaker 1>on the front page. It's a lot less exciting to

0:32:35.036 --> 0:32:37.716
<v Speaker 1>have a public hearing where the witness repeats what he

0:32:37.836 --> 0:32:40.236
<v Speaker 1>or she has already said secretly and which has already

0:32:40.276 --> 0:32:42.796
<v Speaker 1>been leaked on the front page of the newspaper. The

0:32:42.836 --> 0:32:45.396
<v Speaker 1>other big challenge the Democrats are going to face is

0:32:45.436 --> 0:32:49.956
<v Speaker 1>that in public house Republicans are sure to emphasize in

0:32:49.996 --> 0:32:53.756
<v Speaker 1>their questions to witnesses the allegation with which Donald Trump

0:32:53.756 --> 0:32:57.316
<v Speaker 1>began this entire process, namely, the allegation that Joe and

0:32:57.396 --> 0:33:02.196
<v Speaker 1>Hunter Biden were both participants in an illicit scheme to

0:33:02.276 --> 0:33:07.316
<v Speaker 1>influence the Ukrainian prosecutor to drop prosecution against the company

0:33:07.476 --> 0:33:12.196
<v Speaker 1>for which Hunter Biden was working. Now, Biden has said

0:33:12.396 --> 0:33:14.476
<v Speaker 1>that neither he nor his son did anything wrong, and

0:33:14.556 --> 0:33:17.596
<v Speaker 1>almost all Democrats have continued to insist on exactly that.

0:33:18.276 --> 0:33:21.676
<v Speaker 1>The reality is, however, that when the Bidens come to

0:33:21.676 --> 0:33:25.076
<v Speaker 1>be attacked day by day by day, hour by hour

0:33:25.196 --> 0:33:28.676
<v Speaker 1>by hour on national television, that is going to have

0:33:28.756 --> 0:33:32.556
<v Speaker 1>some distracting effect on the Democrat's effort to keep things

0:33:32.556 --> 0:33:36.516
<v Speaker 1>focused laser like on Donald Trump's wrongdoing. In fact, it

0:33:36.516 --> 0:33:39.876
<v Speaker 1>could pose a very significant danger to the Bidens and

0:33:40.156 --> 0:33:43.076
<v Speaker 1>an even more significant challenge to the momentum that the

0:33:43.116 --> 0:33:46.356
<v Speaker 1>Democrats have managed to produce in the context of their

0:33:46.436 --> 0:33:51.236
<v Speaker 1>impeachment inquiry. All of those things may happen, and indeed

0:33:51.276 --> 0:33:54.676
<v Speaker 1>I think they're going to happen, but there's no avoiding

0:33:54.676 --> 0:33:58.556
<v Speaker 1>them in the long run. An impeachment inquiry has to

0:33:58.596 --> 0:34:02.396
<v Speaker 1>take place in front of the American public. The Democrats

0:34:02.396 --> 0:34:05.796
<v Speaker 1>have gone just about as far as they can in private,

0:34:06.036 --> 0:34:14.316
<v Speaker 1>and the Republican protest dramatized that. This week, Deep Background

0:34:14.356 --> 0:34:16.996
<v Speaker 1>is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our producer is

0:34:17.036 --> 0:34:20.956
<v Speaker 1>Lydia Gancott, with engineering by Jason Gambrel and Jason Roskowski.

0:34:21.236 --> 0:34:24.356
<v Speaker 1>Our showrunner is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme music is composed

0:34:24.356 --> 0:34:28.236
<v Speaker 1>by Luis GERA special thanks to the Pushkin Brass, Malcolm Gladwell,

0:34:28.356 --> 0:34:31.556
<v Speaker 1>Jacob Weisberg, and Mia Lobel. I'm Noah Feldman. You can

0:34:31.556 --> 0:34:34.716
<v Speaker 1>follow me on Twitter at Noah R. Feldman. This is

0:34:34.756 --> 0:34:35.516
<v Speaker 1>Deep Background.