1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

2
00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

3
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

4
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 2: the future of this show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,239
Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,680
Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,

11
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:36,320
Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an

15
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,400
Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal,

16
00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:39,760
Speaker 3: indeed we do.

17
00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,440
Speaker 2: Trump really scrambling making a ton of comments yesterday evening.

18
00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,960
Speaker 2: He's begging other countries to help secure the street up

19
00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,040
Speaker 2: four moves. He's saying, maybe we shouldn't even be in

20
00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:49,879
Speaker 2: or on. Perhaps that's something he should have thought of

21
00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,599
Speaker 2: before he launched this illegal war of choice.

22
00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:53,760
Speaker 4: It's a lot to get to there.

23
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,279
Speaker 2: We're also keeping the eye on the markets as they

24
00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,400
Speaker 2: open this morning. Oil prices obviously have been spiking, hovering

25
00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,400
Speaker 2: right now around one hundred dollars a barrel and huge

26
00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:07,280
Speaker 2: potential economic of fallout looming. Israel is reportedly running low

27
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,880
Speaker 2: on interceptors. Martaza Hussein is going to join us to

28
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,880
Speaker 2: break down the damage to that country. Trump and his

29
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,640
Speaker 2: FCC are threatening broadcasters who tell the truth about his

30
00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,880
Speaker 2: war there, demanding patriotic news coverage.

31
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:21,119
Speaker 4: Very dystopian thing there.

32
00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,400
Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson is claiming he's being spied on and may

33
00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:28,479
Speaker 2: be charged by the Trump administration, and Trump official David

34
00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,319
Speaker 2: Sachs says that he fears Israel may actually use a nuke,

35
00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,040
Speaker 2: which is the first time the US administration has actually

36
00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,679
Speaker 2: acknowledged that Israel is a nuclear power, and obviously the

37
00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:41,280
Speaker 2: dire warning ceas sounding is pretty remarkable coming from someone

38
00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 2: who is inside of this administration.

39
00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Tom, for the first US official ever,

40
00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 3: I think, to acknowledge Israel's nuclear program. So we do

41
00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 3: want to thank you David Sachs for finally acknowledging it

42
00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 3: out in the public. Thank you to everybody who's been

43
00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,440
Speaker 3: supporting the show. Breakingpoints dot com. You can shine up

44
00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,440
Speaker 3: and become a premium subscriber if you can't ford it,

45
00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 3: no worries, Please just go ahead and hit subscribe to

46
00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,840
Speaker 3: our YouTube channel. Christal, we never actually thought we would

47
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 3: hit two million. I mean theoretically, I knew it would come,

48
00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:09,560
Speaker 3: but I actually did not.

49
00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:11,079
Speaker 1: Ever think it would come this quickly.

50
00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,120
Speaker 3: So we're at one point nine million, So let's get

51
00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:14,920
Speaker 3: that extra one hundred k, all right, and then we

52
00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,200
Speaker 3: can just worry about it. We can sail off into

53
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,359
Speaker 3: the sunset. So one point nine million, get us to

54
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,720
Speaker 3: two million. Hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. And if

55
00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,520
Speaker 3: you're listening to this as a podcast, please share an

56
00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,480
Speaker 3: episode with a friend. We really appreciate it helps other

57
00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 3: people find the show. Also bear with us. Crystal is home.

58
00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,680
Speaker 3: We have an insane tornado warning here, so who the

59
00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,760
Speaker 3: hell knows what's going to happen here in the DMV area.

60
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 3: If anything happens tomorrow, there you go. That's the reason why.

61
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:39,480
Speaker 3: But yeah, why don't we go ahead and start with

62
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,320
Speaker 3: the straits of horror moves and the crisis there?

63
00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Trump making all kinds of wild comments posting

64
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,240
Speaker 2: on truth social clearly scrambling, and increasingly one of the

65
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,480
Speaker 2: goals of the war is clearly to reopen the straight

66
00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,080
Speaker 2: of horror moves, which of course was open before we

67
00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,400
Speaker 2: started this war, so really sort of backsliding here. In

68
00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,160
Speaker 2: any case, have some remarkable comments from Trump on Air

69
00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,400
Speaker 2: Force One yesterday evening, where he is not only begging

70
00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,840
Speaker 2: other countries to help us out, threatening them on saying,

71
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,760
Speaker 2: you know, maybe he'll blow up NATO effectively if they

72
00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,840
Speaker 2: don't join in, and helping to solve the problem that

73
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 2: he himself created, but also saying I don't I'm not

74
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,679
Speaker 2: sure we should be there in the first place, which

75
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,160
Speaker 2: is just like, oh my god, like what is going

76
00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:22,920
Speaker 2: on here. Let's take a listen to what he had

77
00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 2: to say.

78
00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,480
Speaker 5: Some of the countries would be it will help. Remember,

79
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,240
Speaker 5: it only takes a couple of people to screw up

80
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:31,520
Speaker 5: the straight a couple of turkeys.

81
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:32,040
Speaker 6: You don't need.

82
00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,800
Speaker 5: Their military is compete it. What all you need is

83
00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 5: a few people dropping minds here and there, and you

84
00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,000
Speaker 5: know he allows.

85
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:44,080
Speaker 7: It up, so we need I were really I'm.

86
00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,160
Speaker 5: Demanding that these countries come in and protect their own

87
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:51,480
Speaker 5: territory because it is their territory. It's the place from

88
00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,800
Speaker 5: which they get their energy, and they should come and

89
00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,320
Speaker 5: they should help us protecting. You could make the case

90
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,320
Speaker 5: that maybe we shouldn't even be there at all because

91
00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:03,840
Speaker 5: we don't need it. We have a lot of oil

92
00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,760
Speaker 5: being with the number one producer anywhere in the world

93
00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 5: times soon my double at least, So now.

94
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:11,120
Speaker 8: I think it's much higher than that.

95
00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,800
Speaker 5: But we do it. It's almost like we do it

96
00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,760
Speaker 5: for having but we also do it for some very

97
00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:18,560
Speaker 5: good allies that.

98
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:19,840
Speaker 9: We have in the Middle East.

99
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,640
Speaker 2: So Sagar, we broke it, and now he wants the

100
00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:25,719
Speaker 2: rest of the world to come in and fix it

101
00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,239
Speaker 2: and say, and maybe we shouldn't even be there at all. Yeah,

102
00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,480
Speaker 2: you think, you think maybe, so, maybe we should have

103
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,720
Speaker 2: thought of that before you launched this war on palth

104
00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:35,280
Speaker 2: of Israel.

105
00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,240
Speaker 3: This is just the clearest evidence that we have that

106
00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:40,760
Speaker 3: not only was there no plan, but they really just

107
00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,359
Speaker 3: didn't believe that the streets of Hormuz would be closed.

108
00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,040
Speaker 1: And I've seen a lot of talk about this.

109
00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,000
Speaker 3: Of course they knew it was probable or possible, but

110
00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,560
Speaker 3: the point is that they didn't think it was probable.

111
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,160
Speaker 3: Remember that during the Gulf War, President hw Bush, on

112
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,280
Speaker 3: the very first day of the Golf War announced the

113
00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,800
Speaker 3: Strategic Petroleum Reserve release that was to calm the markets

114
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,320
Speaker 3: and to make sure that any sort of just option

115
00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,359
Speaker 3: would have flow as the war continued. They didn't do

116
00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,480
Speaker 3: it until about ten days or so. And remember many

117
00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 3: much of that oil is still yet to come online.

118
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 3: It's going to take months for actually to dribble out Japan,

119
00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,200
Speaker 3: many others are actually doing releases outside of the United States.

120
00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,440
Speaker 3: The entire global economy is scrambling, and nothing says I

121
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,839
Speaker 3: had a plan that having to beg other countries to

122
00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,599
Speaker 3: have to come in and to bolster the US Navy.

123
00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:26,880
Speaker 3: I also think that what that does highlight is a

124
00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,599
Speaker 3: massive humiliation for the United States at a big global

125
00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:31,480
Speaker 3: strategic level.

126
00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,800
Speaker 1: This is the United States Navy, Bluewater Navy.

127
00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,120
Speaker 3: Entire purpose of a navy is to ensure commerce and

128
00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,919
Speaker 3: trade on the high seas, and this is effectively a

129
00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,719
Speaker 3: declaration we are not able to accomplish this mission without

130
00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:48,120
Speaker 3: multiple other countries. It also is straining US allies to

131
00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,960
Speaker 3: the point where we're having to pit against each other

132
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,040
Speaker 3: in a way where the top allies of the United

133
00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,920
Speaker 3: States in a matter of what twenty four hours are

134
00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:58,560
Speaker 3: all coming out and be like, yeah, I think you're

135
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 3: on your own man. And what this demonstrates is the

136
00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,800
Speaker 3: chaotic nature not only have Trump and so called like

137
00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 3: management of alliances, but it actually really calls into question

138
00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,080
Speaker 3: the entire point of the global Empire. And you know,

139
00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,280
Speaker 3: you really don't want to use these things until not

140
00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,480
Speaker 3: only can they do it, but then if you're going

141
00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 3: to use it, it better damn work. And so for Iran,

142
00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,800
Speaker 3: this tiny country which they claim not tiny but you know,

143
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,160
Speaker 3: in terms of their military force compared to the United States,

144
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,599
Speaker 3: to be able to have this threat, which just so

145
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,840
Speaker 3: emasculates the global empire, what does that tell you about

146
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,000
Speaker 3: the emperor and about the empire itself.

147
00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,839
Speaker 1: It's an absolute humiliation on the world stage.

148
00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,560
Speaker 2: And that's before you even have the Hoofies joining in.

149
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,839
Speaker 2: And I mean that's what's crazy to me too, is

150
00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,560
Speaker 2: like we had a trial run of all this stuff

151
00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,039
Speaker 2: with the Red Sea and the hoo Thies. Ultimately, you know,

152
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,040
Speaker 2: Biden infamously said, well, we're going to continue striking them.

153
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:51,640
Speaker 2: Do I think it's going to work. No, but we're

154
00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,480
Speaker 2: going to continue doing it. Trump actually, you know, did

155
00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,240
Speaker 2: the same thing for a while. Blue a bunch of

156
00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,200
Speaker 2: people up realized it wasn't going to work and just

157
00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,720
Speaker 2: sort of quietly walked away. So he should have known

158
00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:03,600
Speaker 2: because we had a trial run of this, I mean

159
00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,320
Speaker 2: same thing with the idea of regime change just coming

160
00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,279
Speaker 2: from strategic bombing. We had a trial run of that

161
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,720
Speaker 2: in Gaza where we in Israel committed to genocide, blew

162
00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,720
Speaker 2: the whole area to Smitherians and guess what Hamas didn't fall,

163
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,880
Speaker 2: which was a much weaker and less well entrenched organization

164
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,200
Speaker 2: than ultimately the Iranian regime is But I think what

165
00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,560
Speaker 2: happened here is Trump really convinced himself and probably had

166
00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 2: people like natmia Ow and Lindsay Graham whoever in his ear,

167
00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,240
Speaker 2: that this was going to be quick and glorious, that

168
00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:33,680
Speaker 2: they could take out the Ayahtola, they had this opportunity

169
00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,080
Speaker 2: to do it, that the whole thing. He was reportedly

170
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,000
Speaker 2: Cornelius Trat a Parsi telling Gulf Arab allies the whole

171
00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,440
Speaker 2: thing would be over in four days and they would

172
00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:45,840
Speaker 2: completely capitulate. So even though obviously military planners knew that

173
00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,120
Speaker 2: there was a possibility that the straight offormance would be

174
00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,640
Speaker 2: impacted because the Iranian's been threatening this for years and

175
00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,400
Speaker 2: years and years, he never thought it would get to

176
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 2: that point.

177
00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,160
Speaker 4: And now that we are at that point.

178
00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,640
Speaker 2: The realization has set in that actually, I mean I can't.

179
00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,920
Speaker 2: I won't say we can't reopen it ourselves, but it

180
00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:07,680
Speaker 2: would require a ground invasion, seizing the shoreline, right, you

181
00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,360
Speaker 2: would have you know, the mountainous terrain there makes it

182
00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,240
Speaker 2: very easy for Iranian forces to come in, you know,

183
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,680
Speaker 2: guerrilla warfare style, kill a bunch of our troops, take

184
00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:18,840
Speaker 2: down a bunch of our equipment, and then you know,

185
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:20,880
Speaker 2: and then retreat and hide and come back and do

186
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,440
Speaker 2: the same thing over and over again. If we and

187
00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,240
Speaker 2: our allies do start escorting ships through the straight off

188
00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,320
Speaker 2: woe moves, it makes everybody involved, including these you know

189
00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,360
Speaker 2: cargo ships, that these are just civilian you know, sailors

190
00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,440
Speaker 2: trying to earn a living that have nothing to do

191
00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,520
Speaker 2: with this conflict, makes them sitting ducks.

192
00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,280
Speaker 4: So it really is an impossible situation.

193
00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,280
Speaker 2: The only way to solve this is through some sort

194
00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 2: of negotiated end to this conflict. And you know, at

195
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,160
Speaker 2: this point, Iran is not going to just back away

196
00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 2: without getting something in return to ensure that they're not

197
00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,040
Speaker 2: going to end up in this place again. So here's

198
00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,160
Speaker 2: the latest Trump move. You know, the Wall Street Journal reporting,

199
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,839
Speaker 2: and this is incredible the Trump administration as soon as

200
00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:03,160
Speaker 2: this week plans to announce that multiple countries have agreed

201
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 2: to form a coalition might call it a coalition of

202
00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,439
Speaker 2: the willing, that will escort ships through this qurridor, which

203
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,360
Speaker 2: runs along the Iranian coast. US officials said, listen to

204
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:15,360
Speaker 2: this last sentence. So they're still discussing whether those operations

205
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:19,280
Speaker 2: will begin before or after hostilities. Ent kind of a

206
00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,800
Speaker 2: key point there, and to your point, you know, we've

207
00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:26,080
Speaker 2: got Germany already taken a pass. Next element they're saying, yeah,

208
00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 2: we're good here.

209
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 4: Oh thanks.

210
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,200
Speaker 2: We have the French similarly saying no thanks, we're going

211
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,200
Speaker 2: to pass. We have the Canadians saying we're good here.

212
00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,320
Speaker 2: We had Japan come out and say no, we're not

213
00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,839
Speaker 2: getting involved. So I don't know at this point there

214
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,840
Speaker 2: is no country that has raised their hand and said, yes,

215
00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,600
Speaker 2: please allow our ships to also be sitting ducks in

216
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 2: this preposterous quagmire disaster that you've created for yourselves and

217
00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:51,880
Speaker 2: ultimately for the world.

218
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,760
Speaker 1: Yes, especially the Anglo sphere.

219
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,080
Speaker 3: So you know, there's NATO countries, but then there's who

220
00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:57,440
Speaker 3: are the top US allies.

221
00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 1: It's going to be Australia, It's gonna be the UK.

222
00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:00,439
Speaker 1: It's going to be can Well.

223
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,640
Speaker 3: Canada come out and said no UK Keir Starmer, the

224
00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,040
Speaker 3: Prime Minister, just this morning, no, we will not be

225
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,800
Speaker 3: joining into a war with Iran and Australia also coming out.

226
00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,880
Speaker 3: I mean, these are beyond even our closest allies, so

227
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,600
Speaker 3: called part of the Five Eyes and etc. But what

228
00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,199
Speaker 3: that tells you is that when even those people are

229
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 3: saying no, we're not going to be joining you, it

230
00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,920
Speaker 3: leaves you completely out on a limb and makes it

231
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,560
Speaker 3: so they only have two options, some sort of escalation,

232
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,240
Speaker 3: a ground troop option. Currently, the internal reporting is they

233
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,400
Speaker 3: believe they want to try and cripple the regime by

234
00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,160
Speaker 3: taking over carg Island, which is a possibility. Some ninety

235
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 3: percent of Iranian oil is exported via carg Island. The other,

236
00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,480
Speaker 3: of course, is a negotiated settlement. But to have a

237
00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,960
Speaker 3: negotiated settlement would be of course a humiliation also on

238
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,360
Speaker 3: the world stage, which is why, asked Professor Robert Pape

239
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:51,599
Speaker 3: always says the natural way that this goes about is escalations.

240
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:55,640
Speaker 3: Why Trump is already inside of the escalation trap. Why

241
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,440
Speaker 3: don't we play a three then of Trump now threatening

242
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,480
Speaker 3: NATO countries. If they do don't join in this mission,

243
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 3: let's take a lesson.

244
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 9: I want to negotiate badly, as they should, but I

245
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,480
Speaker 9: don't think they're ready to do what they have to do.

246
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,880
Speaker 9: But I think they will be ready at some point.

247
00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:17,200
Speaker 9: But we're doing very well respect to that whole situation

248
00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:17,760
Speaker 9: in Iran.

249
00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,120
Speaker 5: We are talking to other countries about working with us

250
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:26,719
Speaker 5: or the policing of being straight, and I think we

251
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,080
Speaker 5: get a good response and we do. That's great, and

252
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:33,280
Speaker 5: we don't that's right too. But remember as an example

253
00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 5: in many cases that NATO countries, we're always there for NATO.

254
00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:42,000
Speaker 5: We're helping them with Ukraine and many it's got a

255
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 5: notion in between us doesn't affect us, but we've helped them,

256
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,240
Speaker 5: and be interesting to see what country wouldn't help us

257
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,000
Speaker 5: with a very small endeavor, which is just keeping the

258
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:58,160
Speaker 5: straight open that my comparison is. It's small because Iran

259
00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:58,880
Speaker 5: has very.

260
00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:03,080
Speaker 3: Little firepower left, very small endeavor, very little firepower, so

261
00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,599
Speaker 3: little firepower in fact, that the US Navy needs to

262
00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,560
Speaker 3: beg NATO and all the other world powers to come

263
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:10,679
Speaker 3: in and to join us. I have been thinking though,

264
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,000
Speaker 3: if this war is the downfall of NATO, maybe it'd

265
00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:14,880
Speaker 3: be all be worth it, But that's like a big,

266
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,000
Speaker 3: a bigger picture thing.

267
00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:19,160
Speaker 1: It is just insane and ironic.

268
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,120
Speaker 3: Also, it demonstrates how unilateral action it will always come

269
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 3: back to bite you because when you get into that

270
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,240
Speaker 3: escalation and now you don't have other countries who are

271
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 3: bought into the message. It's not just our popular If

272
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,679
Speaker 3: you think America's population, which is ten times more brainwashed

273
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,040
Speaker 3: and more raw, raw and jingoistic for pro war propaganda,

274
00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,320
Speaker 3: isn't on board with this war according to every poll

275
00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:42,320
Speaker 3: that we have out there, what do you think that

276
00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:46,000
Speaker 3: the European population is going to be thinking about this?

277
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,679
Speaker 3: And don't forget is that while our gas prices are

278
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 3: already high. I think it's like three seventy or something

279
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,640
Speaker 3: right now per gallon. Go take a look at European

280
00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,840
Speaker 3: and natural gas and petrol prices out on the continent.

281
00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:57,600
Speaker 1: It's not great.

282
00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,880
Speaker 3: There are also many of the European countries, Crystal, especially

283
00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,959
Speaker 3: in NATO, are furious because the United States is currently

284
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,040
Speaker 3: issuing sanctioned waivers to Indian to any other country that

285
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,400
Speaker 3: wants to purchase Russian oil which is already at sea.

286
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,800
Speaker 3: So they are massively enriching the Kremlin at this very time.

287
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,920
Speaker 3: The rest of NATO only really cares about Russia and Ukraine. Okay, well,

288
00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,640
Speaker 3: guess what this is enriching that country to a huge degree.

289
00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,480
Speaker 3: I mean, we are pumping money into the Russian war machine.

290
00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 3: Oil is currently trading around ninety eight ninety seven dollars

291
00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,199
Speaker 3: a barrel, the highest level in years.

292
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,239
Speaker 1: The Kremlin is doing backflips.

293
00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,439
Speaker 3: They want the price to go to some one hundred

294
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,439
Speaker 3: and forty one sixty per barrel, which would be around

295
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,240
Speaker 3: five something dollars a gallon here in the United States.

296
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 3: That is the best case scenario for them, which is

297
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:46,880
Speaker 3: why they're also giving all this intelligence to the Iranians,

298
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:48,480
Speaker 3: which we're going to spend a lot of time here

299
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:50,560
Speaker 3: talking about some of the strikes and some of the

300
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,720
Speaker 3: pinpoint Mortaza is going to break some of that down.

301
00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 3: There is absolutely no way that's just Iran on its own.

302
00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:58,840
Speaker 3: And how can you even be mad at Russia? As

303
00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,080
Speaker 3: Trump even said, He's like, well, it is hard to

304
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:02,920
Speaker 3: be upset because it's not like we don't give all

305
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:04,920
Speaker 3: this money to Ukraine. The one thing you say about

306
00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:06,960
Speaker 3: Trump is at least he does occasionally tell the truth.

307
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean Trump is right that the Europeans

308
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 2: are more screwed out of this than we are. Because

309
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,880
Speaker 2: we are a net energy exporterer. We have more tools

310
00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,080
Speaker 2: at our disposal. You know, if he wanted to, he

311
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 2: could say, Okay, we're not exporting any more of our oil,

312
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 2: we're keeping it here domestically. That would cause an entire

313
00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 2: global shit show. I mean, if you think about it.

314
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:30,200
Speaker 2: For the Europeans, they were very reliant on Russian gas.

315
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,840
Speaker 2: Obviously they've largely cut that off. Now you've got the

316
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,920
Speaker 2: other primary source of their energy, which obviously the Middle

317
00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:41,280
Speaker 2: East now is imperiled at best. So they are kind

318
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,000
Speaker 2: of screwed. And you know, I did see a report

319
00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,400
Speaker 2: this morning Scott Bessett, Treasury Secretary, saying like, well, actually

320
00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:52,080
Speaker 2: we're letting Iranian oil tankers, We're letting them, okay, transit

321
00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 2: the Straight of Hord moves to continue to supply the

322
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,240
Speaker 2: global oil markets, and that seems to have led to

323
00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 2: somewhat of a tick down in terms of the oil futures.

324
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,280
Speaker 2: And I'm talking take down to ninety six instead of

325
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:07,480
Speaker 2: ninety eight, you know, effectively. But Trump and his regime

326
00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 2: are thinking that they can effectively bully our allies in

327
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 2: the Europeans in particular into taking on this task after

328
00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,000
Speaker 2: we created this whole entire mess. And they may be right,

329
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:22,280
Speaker 2: because the Europeans are sort of embarrassingly, you know, embarrassing

330
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 2: at this point and weak, and they're kind of screwed,

331
00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:25,160
Speaker 2: et cetera.

332
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,280
Speaker 4: But thus far.

333
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,440
Speaker 2: They don't seem too willing to want to join in

334
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,880
Speaker 2: this one. You've got you and Ambassador Mike Waltz, who

335
00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 2: was saying that not only do we request that our

336
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 2: allies get involved here, we demand it.

337
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.

338
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 7: Is he hoping that those countries are going to send

339
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 7: ships or have they committed to sending ships?

340
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,440
Speaker 1: And how soon will those naval escorts be ready?

341
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,640
Speaker 10: Well, I'll leave those, you know, those conversations to him.

342
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,360
Speaker 10: The conversations are ongoing. I think there's an important point

343
00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,080
Speaker 10: that's getting you know, kind of missed in the conversation,

344
00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,200
Speaker 10: and that eighty percent of the oil coming out of

345
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:04,560
Speaker 10: the golf heads to Asia, only about seven to eight

346
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:08,200
Speaker 10: percent heads to the Western Hemisphere. And to your point

347
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 10: on escorts, look back in the eighties under the tanker wars.

348
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 10: Then the last time Iran tried to constrain global energy supplies.

349
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:23,760
Speaker 10: You had French, United Kingdom, even Soviet Union forces in

350
00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 10: their escorting their tankers out that were heading to their markets.

351
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,080
Speaker 10: And I think that's what President Trump is calling upon

352
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 10: the world, saying, the entire world is affected. Iran can't

353
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 10: hold your economy's hostage. And we certainly welcome, encourage and

354
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 10: even demand their participation.

355
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 4: Welcome and courage and even demand.

356
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 2: And you know, when you put out some rhetoric like

357
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,880
Speaker 2: that to your point about the weakness, and then after

358
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 2: those comments are made, the UK comes out and says, sorry,

359
00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 2: you're on your own for this one.

360
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:56,880
Speaker 4: Again the level of weakness.

361
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 2: And this is really everything for a global empire, you know,

362
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 2: dec finding global empire like the US, everything is about

363
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 2: maintaining the facade. Everything is about saving face. And once

364
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,560
Speaker 2: that image is punctured, and once you're proven to be

365
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 2: a paper tiger, and once the rest of the world says,

366
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 2: you know, we've got our own ideas about things, that

367
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 2: is the beginning of the end.

368
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:18,080
Speaker 8: Yeah.

369
00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,040
Speaker 3: I think it's really I mean, yeah, I didn't want

370
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,159
Speaker 3: to see it. Unfortunately, it's highly predictable. This is like

371
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,400
Speaker 3: classic empire behavior. Let's put the German one up there

372
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:30,959
Speaker 3: on the screen. For example, here was Chancellor merce reacting

373
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:37,000
Speaker 3: skeptical about expanding any EU operation in the Straits of Hormuz.

374
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,879
Speaker 3: What they talked about specifically, sorry, this was the Foreign minister.

375
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,720
Speaker 3: He said he was skeptical about potential widening of the

376
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,160
Speaker 3: mission in the Straits of Hormuz.

377
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:45,080
Speaker 1: We should be clear.

378
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 3: I mean, they might make some token sort of announcement

379
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 3: that they will help ensure navigation in the Strait of

380
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 3: Hormuz after a cessation of hostilities, or Trump might take

381
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,640
Speaker 3: it as a victory that they'll say that they'll put

382
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 3: their ships. You know, some were near the Straits of Hormuz.

383
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,760
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, if they're not

384
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 3: sailing through, if they're not joining some sort of military

385
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,480
Speaker 3: action that's happening in the Straits of Hormoves in the

386
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,159
Speaker 3: way the United States Navy is currently being floated, that

387
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 3: is a real screw you. And remember, as Crystal said,

388
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 3: I mean these countries are massively they have massive more

389
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 3: at stake here than just the United States. Yes, in

390
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 3: a drastic situation, we could just do an export ban.

391
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 1: Ninety percent of.

392
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,640
Speaker 3: Japan's oil comes from the Straits of hormoves comes or sorry,

393
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 3: it comes from the Middle East. Forty percent of China's

394
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 3: oil comes from the Middle East. The Europeans, it's not

395
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 3: just an oil problem they have. It's really natural gas.

396
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,480
Speaker 3: Because of Katar So Katar's natural gas. Their LNG has

397
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,680
Speaker 3: been massively important to their ability to try and wean

398
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 3: somewhat off of Russian gas since the twenty twenty two

399
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,959
Speaker 3: Russian invasion of Ukraine. But you put all this together

400
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,679
Speaker 3: and the bottleneck of everything that's currently happening, and you

401
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 3: are already seeing. Remember it's not just oil, it's not

402
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 3: even just gas. We're also talking about helium. We're talking

403
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 3: about fertile we're talking about uia. We talked a little

404
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,439
Speaker 3: bit about that earlier. I was just looking this morning.

405
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 3: China has already released a strategic fertilizer reserve. I didn't

406
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 3: even know they had such a thing. Smart behavior, by

407
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 3: the way, real country behavior. Guess which country major economy

408
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 3: doesn't have a strategic fertilizer reserve or any reserve of

409
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 3: any kind. The United States, which means our farmers are

410
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: going to be massively massively at stake of the global market.

411
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 3: And also China and the US have an upcoming Trump

412
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 3: and China have an upcoming summit which is supposed to

413
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 3: take place at the end of the month, and the

414
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 3: President is even saying that he may delay to any

415
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,360
Speaker 3: sort of that summit or demand Chinese participation in some

416
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 3: sort of horror moves clearing operation if that summit were

417
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 3: to continue to go forward.

418
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: They don't care at all.

419
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,479
Speaker 3: This is good for them, you know, there's nothing that

420
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 3: they would love more than to have the United States

421
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 3: embroiled in a week's or a year's long war in Iran,

422
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 3: which is they get all their interceptor they can.

423
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 1: They're watched in those satellites.

424
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,679
Speaker 3: I saw pictures come out of the PLA, the People's

425
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 3: Little Army headquarters where they're just monitoring the situation with

426
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 3: these giant monitors and maps. And they're just sitting there

427
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 3: watching these missiles go up, calculating trajectories, looking at what's working,

428
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: what's not working. Who, by the way, controls the global

429
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 3: drone supply parts? Where do you think it all comes from?

430
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,119
Speaker 3: Comes from China? All of these electronics. They're just sitting

431
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 3: there quietly and preparing. Meanwhile, there's increased military activity in

432
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 3: the Taiwan Strait just to show you that. You know,

433
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,159
Speaker 3: they're pushing their proxies as well. Their main proxy is

434
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 3: North Korea. North Korea just launched a blistic missile two

435
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 3: days ago over Japan. They're freaking out in East Asia.

436
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 3: South Korean press is all over this. President Trump apparently

437
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,199
Speaker 3: had to hold some therapy session phone call with the

438
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 3: President of South Korea, who is furious obviously about the

439
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 3: removal of that batteries. Like, the global order itself is

440
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 3: very very shaky already as a result of this war.

441
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 1: Should we get to Kevin hassit or do it?

442
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 4: Yea, So let's go, No, let's go.

443
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: Well, just one quick thing on that, you know, to

444
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 2: your point about sort of like the global order is

445
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 2: shake and in a lot of ways, the global order

446
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 2: is being determined as we speak, you know, depending on

447
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 2: how this war shakes out, how long it goes, how

448
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 2: damaging it is to the US, how damaging is to

449
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,959
Speaker 2: the world, how damaging it is to the Empire, what

450
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 2: the golf countries do after this, And in that way,

451
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 2: it truly is a world war.

452
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 8: You know.

453
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 2: World war is not necessarily about like the number of

454
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 2: people killed or exactly the number of countries that are

455
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 2: involved in hot military action right now, if you look

456
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 2: around the world, you have a whole lot of countries

457
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: in these interrelated hot war conflicts. But in any case,

458
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: what a world war really is about is about what

459
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 2: the world order is going to look like coming out

460
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 2: of that. And I think from that definition we are

461
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: already in one. Let's go ahead and take a listen

462
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 2: to Kevin Hassett here. Very noteworthy someone else made this

463
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: point on Twitter that the administry, you know, this wasn't

464
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 2: Marco Rubio coming out. You didn't have the you know,

465
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: the military brass. It was largely like the economic guys

466
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 2: who were sent down on the Sunday shows to make

467
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 2: the case, which tells you a few things. I mean,

468
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 2: it tells you maybe the number one thing that they're

469
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: concerned about is really the markets, and that is an

470
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: intentional Iranian plan. This is as much about the Iranians

471
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 2: waging economic warfare as it is about the military conflict.

472
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 2: They see that dimension as being the most crucial because

473
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: they need to exact that pain on America to force

474
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 2: them to accept their terms and make sure that they

475
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: don't end up in this situation again. So Kevin Hassett,

476
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 2: who's the chief Economic advisor for Trump gets asked about so, hey,

477
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 2: if this goes on for months, like, what is this

478
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,719
Speaker 2: going to mean for the economy? Let's go and take

479
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 2: a listen to how he responds.

480
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 3: If this disruption lasts for months, can the US economy

481
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 3: absorb the shock without a recession?

482
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 11: First of all, it's not going to last for months.

483
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 11: President Trump's team has brief dou that it's going to

484
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 11: be four to six weeks beginning two weeks ago, and

485
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 11: that we're ahead of schedule.

486
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 8: And so second, if it did.

487
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 11: Last for a long time, it wouldn't really do a

488
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 11: lot of harm to the USA economy. Now, certainly there'd

489
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 11: be pocket book issues that we'd have to address, but

490
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 11: the bottom line is that the US produces so much

491
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 11: oil that you can't really get GDP to go negative

492
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 11: with an oil shock the way you could in the seventies.

493
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 11: So we're in a very strong position. But it's really

494
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,199
Speaker 11: heightened the strength by the fact that we've got a

495
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:22,479
Speaker 11: productivity boom from artificial intelligence, we've got a capital spending

496
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 11: boom because of the Big Beautiful Bill, and we've got

497
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 11: incomes growing the fastest we've seen since back around twenty

498
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 11: eighteen and so all the fundamentals of our economy are

499
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 11: really really strong. If a rand thinks that they're going

500
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 11: to get President Trump to back down because they're going

501
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 11: to make our economy week, then they just don't understand economics.

502
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: So Zary basically just dodges there like, well, it's not

503
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 2: going to last that long.

504
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 4: They promise this is not going to last. Oh really,

505
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:46,719
Speaker 4: so how's it going to end?

506
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: Because that it's worth even grappling with what he said.

507
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: He said our GDP won't be affected, and he's not wrong. Yes,

508
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 3: Exxon is going to do great. Okay of Midland, my

509
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: home state of Texas, Houston, it's going to be a

510
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 3: fun time, all right to be a club owner in

511
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 3: the city of Houston. It's going to be super fun

512
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 3: to own a Ford dealer out in West Texas or

513
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 3: in the Panhandle or in Tech you know, in Lubbock

514
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 3: or any of these places. That doesn't mean that it's

515
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 3: going to be good for the rest of us. Already,

516
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 3: gas is three seventy about a gallon nationally. Let's think

517
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 3: about the scenarios where it's like four fifty five dollars

518
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 3: a gallon. Let's say even average, that's I would say,

519
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 3: one of the worst case scenarios is around five dollars

520
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: a gallon average, that would be probably six fifty seven

521
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 3: dollars a gallon in California. That is a disaster. I

522
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 3: think for the more normal American pocketbooks. That also translates

523
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 3: into demand destruction. That's what our friend Rory has talked about,

524
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 3: where when gas starts to tick up that high, people

525
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: are like, all right, I'm just not going anywhere, you know,

526
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 3: I'm not driving to my uncle's house or something like that.

527
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 1: Don't forget we.

528
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 3: Got the July fourth holiday in a few months. Are

529
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 3: people going to be driving?

530
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: Right?

531
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 3: So these are times usually when people are always traveling

532
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 3: who are either driving. Not to mention jet fuel, jet

533
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 3: fuel prices in Asia, I think in Singapore jet fuel

534
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 3: going for two hundred dollars per barrel right now, because

535
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 3: it's something about the specific refine. I'm not an expert,

536
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 3: but the experts that I have been reading, I've been

537
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 3: warning that this is going to directly translate into air traffic. Also,

538
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 3: there's been just the war, the actual disruption. So while

539
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: we were all sleeping last night, a bunch of flights

540
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 3: which were on route to Dubai had to turn around

541
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 3: in the middle of the air and actually go back

542
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 3: to where they came from because of a huge fire

543
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 3: that broke out.

544
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 1: Remember, Dubai is one of.

545
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 3: The busiest airport, maybe the busiest airport in the entire world.

546
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 3: They handled tens of thousands of passengers per day even

547
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: on a limited schedule, so already they had to cancel

548
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 3: flights for a prolonged period. They're warning people do not

549
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 3: come to the airport. They have immense censorship in the UAE,

550
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 3: so I haven't even seen any real videos that have

551
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 3: been coming out as a result. But just think about,

552
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 3: you know, the danger to air traffic and one of

553
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: the more busiest parts of the entire region, guitar airways.

554
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: Many of these play these.

555
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 3: Are gateways to Asia, so this will have demand destruction

556
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 3: at every level from the war and to oil. So

557
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 3: I think last thing, sorry, go ahead, I.

558
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 2: Was just going to standing that airport is also just

559
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 2: like very crucial to the economy of the UAE. You know,

560
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 2: it's billions of dollars every day in revenue that comes

561
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 2: through there. And I did see images that purported to

562
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 2: be of fuel depot near the airport on fire. After

563
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: you know, presumably in Irani and drone strike. So yeah,

564
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 2: their economies are still you know, being messed with in

565
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: a way that is probably going to be very difficult

566
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 2: for them to recover because their brand is being destroyed.

567
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 2: The Iranian Foreign Minister went into a couple of interviews

568
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 2: yesterday as well, and he said, hey, the straight ofform moves, it's.

569
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 4: Open for anyone.

570
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 2: We want it to be open for It's not open

571
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 2: for the US and their allies, but you know for

572
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 2: other countries. Sure, straightform moves is open. So let's take

573
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: a listen to that.

574
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 5: Well.

575
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 12: As a matter of fact, this straight up hormones is open.

576
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 12: It is only closed to the tankers and ships belong

577
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 12: to the to our enemies, to those who are attacking

578
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 12: US and their allies. Others are free to pass. Of course,

579
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 12: many of them prefer not because of their security concerns.

580
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 8: This this has nothing to do with us.

581
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 12: And at the same time, there are many tankers and

582
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 12: ships who are passing through the state of homost and

583
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 12: I can say that the strait is not closed, but

584
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 12: it is only closed to American is really you know,

585
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 12: ships and tankers and not to others.

586
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we do know though that Obviously, traffic through

587
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 2: the Straight of Homos is greatly, greatly, greatly diminished because

588
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: you know, even if you are not US is really

589
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: a flag tanker owned tanker, You're probably not feeling real

590
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: safe going through there at this point. And the insurance

591
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: rates have just astronomically skyrocketed. I mean, a bunch of

592
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 2: insurers are just like, yeah, we're not we're not ensuring

593
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: Actually your voyage through this area.

594
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: Now turn just to oil.

595
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 3: A lot of discussion around what the price of gas

596
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 3: is going to look like. Whose fault it is? The

597
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 3: Vice President has an idea, it's Joe Biden. Let's take

598
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 3: a listen.

599
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 7: All this conversation happens where Joe Biden left us in

600
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 7: a terrible situation. And the reason why gas prices are

601
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 7: where they are today is because of Donald Trump's work

602
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 7: to get them lower, because then the Biden administration they

603
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 7: were crazy high.

604
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 8: The gas prices.

605
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 7: We're seeing today are nothing like what we saw at

606
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 7: the peak of the Biden administration because the President has

607
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 7: set us up for energy dominance. And one of the

608
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 7: lessons we all have to take away, frankly, every time

609
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 7: we get involved in anything overseas, whether it's in the

610
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 7: Middle East or anywhere else. The thing we got to

611
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 7: take away from it is energy dominance and energy independence.

612
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 7: Rely on our own people, rely on our own energy.

613
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 3: Biden's price hike, remember Putin's pice price hike. Let's go

614
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: with Biden god hike. I forgot about that.

615
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's that's buried in the PTSD files. Let's

616
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: see how that works out.

617
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 3: I think for the administration, they're going to blame Joe

618
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 3: Biden after a war that they literally chose to enter.

619
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: Should definitely work.

620
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 3: But if you want to know the real disaster scenario,

621
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 3: it's this interview with Secretary of Energy Christopher Wright where

622
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: he was on television yesterday and they said, should Americans

623
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: prepare for two hundred dollars per barrel, which would be

624
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: around seven dollars a gallon at gas.

625
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say.

626
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: The price of a barrel of oil closed above.

627
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 13: One hundred and three dollars on Friday, and the Iranians

628
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 13: are warning of prices hitting two one hundred dollars a barrel.

629
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 13: Mister Secretary, should Americans be bracing for should they be

630
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 13: worried that this war will actually drive the price of

631
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 13: oil above two hundred dollars a barrel.

632
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 14: So Iran for forty seven years has called the United

633
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 14: States the Great Satan. So because they call us the

634
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 14: Great Satan, I don't think we are the Great Satan.

635
00:29:58,160 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 8: In fact, clearly we're not.

636
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 14: I don't listen much to Iranian projections of what's going

637
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 14: to happen, but there is disruptions of very important waterway.

638
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 14: It's I would pay no attention to what Iran says,

639
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 14: but there is a lot of energy that flows through

640
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 14: the straits of poor Moves, and depending upon the timing

641
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 14: and the manner in which this conflict comes to an end,

642
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 14: we're going to see some elevated pricing until we get

643
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 14: there where it's going to go. We have done many,

644
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 14: many actions to mitigate that price rise.

645
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,239
Speaker 3: YEP. So the energy sector is not runing out two

646
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: hundred dollars a barrel, which, as I just said, roughly

647
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 3: around like six something maybe seven dollars per gallon. I

648
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 3: don't even know what they'd be paying in California already.

649
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: California this morning is at five point fifty eight gallons.

650
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: So I mean, if the national average it's three seventy,

651
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: it's five to fifty out in California. If the national

652
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 3: average is like six to fifty, I don't even know

653
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: what that would mean. That would be completely insane for

654
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 3: the entire country. Let's go and put b three up

655
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The current price of oil. This

656
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 3: is right when we are filming the show. It's right

657
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 3: around the ninety seven dollars a barrel. Things are moving

658
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: a little bit as of this morning, just making sure

659
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 3: to make it totally up to date. A few drops,

660
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 3: maybe ninety five, but roughly in that range. I think

661
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 3: Brent remains around two one hundred dollars per barrel. Some

662
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 3: of this is movement on the statements that were made

663
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 3: by the Energy Secretary, or sorry by the Treasury Secretary Crystal,

664
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 3: as you said, who this morning was saying that they

665
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 3: would allow the transit of Iranian oil to continue through

666
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 3: the Straits of horm moves. But it just demonstrates how

667
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 3: they're really caught in a complete bind. If they want

668
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 3: to choke the enemy off completely with Iran, they could

669
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 3: invade carg Island, they could take over their oil refineries,

670
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 3: they could block all Iranian oil shipments.

671
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: But what would that do.

672
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,719
Speaker 3: It would dramatically continue to restrict the amount of supply

673
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: that is happening. And at the same time, the Iranians,

674
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 3: while yes, they had their carg Island facility hit, they

675
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 3: then are reaching out and hitting UAA facilities, UAE facilities

676
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 3: for their ways that they try to export oil that's

677
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 3: outside of the straits of horror moves. So everybody is

678
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 3: locked in a place where the US and the global

679
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 3: the allies, coalition of the willing you might even call it,

680
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 3: or maybe the non willing in this case, the coalition

681
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 3: of the non willing.

682
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: Well, they don't want the price of oil to continue

683
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: to go up.

684
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 3: The Iranians do so they'll take the money that the

685
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: US will allow them to have, but at the same

686
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 3: time they want the price to continue to spiral. So

687
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 3: we are in very very opposed interest in both of

688
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: these respects. And it's also demonstrating every time the US

689
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 3: basically allows Iranian oil to go through or is panicking

690
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 3: about the price of oil, it actually illustrates that the

691
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 3: Iranian strategy of weaponizing oil price is working. And of

692
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 3: course it has to work because the global population is

693
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 3: not built into this, it is not bought into this,

694
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 3: while the Iranian population, at least from what we've seen

695
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: so far, they're not rising up.

696
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: They're fine with the war.

697
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 3: In fact, they probably support it, or at least some

698
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 3: of them do in the streets of Tehran and others

699
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 3: not ai as the President said, which we'll get to

700
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 3: in a little bit. And that's the problem that we

701
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 3: have right now. It's why they're in a better strategic

702
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 3: position even though they have taken such a beating so far.

703
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love how Treasury Secretary's got vestent frames. It

704
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: is like we're allowing the Iranian tankers to go through.

705
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: It's like they're calling the shots here, buddy. Now, of

706
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: course we could blow them up if we wanted to,

707
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: but yeah, that would just harm us and our allies

708
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: even more so. The you know, these strategic thinking are

709
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 2: around the straight of hoom moves is sort of based

710
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 2: on this outdated idea that Iran, if it was going

711
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 2: to close it down, would have to close it down

712
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: for everyone, and that that would harm Iran as well.

713
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: You know, as long as their tankers are going and

714
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 2: largely by the way to China, they're still able to

715
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: earn the revenue that they need to you know, continue

716
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: to produce drones and do what they need to do,

717
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 2: and things could get much worse. I mean, they could

718
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 2: escalate the two more attacks on oil infrastructure. They could

719
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 2: escalate to more attacks on desalination plants. This is a

720
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: region that is not self sufficient and self sustaining in

721
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 2: any way. I mean, they require those desalination plants, They

722
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: require mass imports of food. They are not self sustaining

723
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 2: in terms of their you know, agriculture. So there are

724
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: a lot of vulnerable, vulnerable choke points here. And this

725
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: is how bad things are. Even the oil executives are like, yo,

726
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 2: this is not this is not going to be a

727
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 2: good thing. Put this Wall Street Journal report up on

728
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 2: the screen. Oil industry warns Trump administration that fuel crunch

729
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 2: will likely worsen. American oil executives delivered a bleak message

730
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: to Trump officials in recent days. The energy crisis the

731
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,320
Speaker 2: IRN war has leashed, unleashed, is likely to get worse.

732
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 2: In a series of White House meetings Wednesday and recent

733
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 2: conversations with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Bergram,

734
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 2: the CEOs of Exonmobile, Chevron and Conco Phillips warned that

735
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 2: the disruption of energy flows out of the vital straight

736
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: ofform miswaterway would continue to create volatility in global energy markets,

737
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 2: according to people familiar with the matter. In response to

738
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 2: questions from the officials, they said oil prices could rise

739
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 2: past current elevated levels if speculators unexpectedly build bid up prices,

740
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 2: and that markets could see a supply crunch of refined products.

741
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: Chevron CEO Mike Worth and Konico Philips CEO Ryan Lance

742
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 2: also conveyed their concerns about the scale of the disruption

743
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 2: because here's the thing. Well, yes, it's great for the

744
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 2: prices go up, blah blah blah. Then they get worried

745
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 2: about well, wait a second, what if people start buying evs.

746
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,720
Speaker 2: What if people start changing their habits and it lessens

747
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: the global demand for fossil fuel products like permanently, then

748
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: that creates a problem for them. So that's why they

749
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 2: get uncomfortable even when the price of oil goes too high,

750
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 2: because then you can get these permanent ships and consumer behavior.

751
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: And as a side note, you know outside of the

752
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: US where we're effectively banned from being able to buy

753
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 2: Chinese EV's, which are superior in every way to the

754
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: domestic evs that are produced here, which I think we

755
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: can both attest to being happy EV owners, but the

756
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,840
Speaker 2: rest of the world they're going to buy Chinese evs.

757
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 2: So this idea that oh, this is brilliant forty chess,

758
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 2: and what this Iran war is really aiming at is

759
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: hobbling China, perhaps hobbling China and Russia. Nothing could be

760
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 2: further from the truth, because these countries, first of all,

761
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,800
Speaker 2: have been thinking more long term and strategically, China in particular,

762
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 2: you know, for Russia, obviously, we talked about how the

763
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 2: waivers are now being granted for Russia to solve their

764
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 2: oil to India and other places at an elevated premium price.

765
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 2: Not to mention, guess what, We're not going to be

766
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: able to send much of to Ukraine, much of anything,

767
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 2: because our munitions and our intercept all that stuff is

768
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 2: being shipped over to the Middle East, and our stockpiles

769
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 2: are running low. So we're not going to have much

770
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 2: to be able to contribute to the Ukraine war. And China,

771
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 2: of course, they love to see us just you know,

772
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,879
Speaker 2: bogged down, and they're able to see all of our

773
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 2: weak points and where the vulnerabilities are, and they can

774
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 2: provide their intel or whatever resources they're providing to run

775
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: and just sit back and watch this all play out.

776
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 3: This is why the five D chest narrative around China

777
00:36:56,680 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 3: is preposterous. They are doing very well already outside of

778
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 3: this crisis. They get to learn and so first they

779
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 3: got to study all of our financial sanctions against Russia,

780
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 3: which of course they were a huge beneficiary of. Now

781
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 3: they get to study militarily, how the United States is

782
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 3: even capable in the year twenty twenty six. Look at

783
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 3: all the interceptors, look at the radars, look at the

784
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 3: drone techs. See exactly where it's all vulnerable, how exactly

785
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 3: they would want to pilot it.

786
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:22,959
Speaker 1: And of course they have what two.

787
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 3: Hundred and fifty three one hundred times the production base

788
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 3: and military capacity of the country of Iran. And so

789
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: they're just sitting there biding their time this entire time. Now,

790
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 3: let's go to B five please and put this up

791
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 3: here on the screen. This was a recent interview that

792
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 3: Trump gave to NBC News. He says that the US

793
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 3: may hit Iran's carg Island again just for fun. Trump

794
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 3: told the NBC News broadcaster on Saturday, US strikes totally

795
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: demolished much of the oil export hub not true, and

796
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,399
Speaker 3: warned of more attacks on the island. What they did

797
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 3: demolish were Iranian military sites on card Island. He says,

798
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,879
Speaker 3: we may hit it a few more times just for fun.

799
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 3: The remarks with American escalation for Trump, who previously said

800
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,959
Speaker 3: they are targeting only military sites on Carg Island, as

801
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:06,959
Speaker 3: they say now.

802
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 1: The way that I had.

803
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 3: This explains to men, was on the phone with somebody

804
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,879
Speaker 3: recently who has a little bit of an idea about

805
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 3: what's going on. And this falls exactly into Robert Pape's

806
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 3: entire escalation trap theory. What they need to do is

807
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 3: to change the status quo. Right, the status quo was bad,

808
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 3: So how do you change the status quo? You only

809
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,840
Speaker 3: have two options. One is to have a negotiated solution.

810
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 3: The other is to come up with all sorts of

811
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 3: kakamami schemes about how maybe this one, the big one,

812
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 3: will change the calculus of the enemy. So that's why

813
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 3: they hit the military sites on Carg Island. They were like, Hey,

814
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 3: we're going to hit this so that we can come

815
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 3: in and we can get it if we want to.

816
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 3: They say, okay, well, if you do, come and get it.

817
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 3: We're going to turn it into a death trap for

818
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 3: all of the people who are there. So, yeah, we're

819
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,399
Speaker 3: going to pay. Our economy will seriously pay, but you're

820
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 3: going to pay.

821
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 8: Two.

822
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 3: Now, which one of us do you think is going

823
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 3: to hold out longer? Because they're already going to be

824
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 3: transforming their entire nation into a total war economy, one

825
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,320
Speaker 3: where everything go down, things get nationalized, sees, you knows,

826
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 3: the concept of even like money becomes basically, you know, irrelevant.

827
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 3: In his total war scenario, they're just going to go

828
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: and seize whatever they want. Obviously they would still just

829
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 3: have to outlast the United States. But the problem is

830
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 3: this magical thinking scenario is that the military is currently

831
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: selling to Donald Trump. That's where the carg Island stuff

832
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 3: comes from. They're like, oh, well, we hit all their

833
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 3: missile sites, but now we have to go and hit

834
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: this particular one, and then what's next. Oh, well, we

835
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 3: need to go in. We need to seize the island.

836
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: Because if we seize the island, it'll cut them off,

837
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: but of course they'll be able to respond to us.

838
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,280
Speaker 3: It's the same thing with the nuclear sites. The nuclear

839
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 3: sites I actually think are the real problem in this

840
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 3: entire in this entire war, because the easiest way for

841
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 3: Trump to say, to declare victory would just be to

842
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 3: have some crazy raid that goes in and sees it.

843
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 3: He can just pull out and say, Okay, we're done,

844
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 3: We've neutralized them forever. The issue is is that because

845
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 3: we bomb those nuclear sites and it's under several hundred

846
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 3: feet of rubble and it's in a tunnel, is to

847
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 3: go and get it. They know exactly where you're coming.

848
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 3: You can't just se small team in the dead of

849
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 3: night because they know you're gonna be there, and they're

850
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: going to arm the entire area. So then you have

851
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 3: to send in a bunch of people to secure the area.

852
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 3: It might even take weeks or months to excavate the rubble,

853
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: which means an occupation. Of course, they're gonna be sitting

854
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 3: ducks for anybody who wants to attack them, which means

855
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 3: you've got to have a big perimeter. And so there's

856
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 3: all these magical thinking scenarios. Each one of them means

857
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 3: that each one of them is about changing the status quo.

858
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 3: But we've already shown our hand, right, We've bombed, we

859
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 3: killed the Ayatola, We've bombed all these missile sites, they

860
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 3: still are able to launch drones, and so the you know,

861
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 3: the final option is just continue to keep doing what

862
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 3: we're doing. But that's a nightmare for all of us

863
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 3: at one hundred dollars a barrow for oil and high

864
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 3: gas prices and economic contraction, maybe even a global depression,

865
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 3: and of course the destruction of US credibility. So we

866
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 3: only have bad options that are in front of us

867
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 3: right now. And Trump his information environment, I mean, we'll

868
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 3: talk about this later.

869
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: He's like praising Mark Levin.

870
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 3: It's not good, right, and all he wants to hear

871
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 3: are all these magical thinking scenarios where this time we

872
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: can do it right. Just if we bomb this, it'll

873
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 3: change things on the ground. That's exactly what happened in Vietnam.

874
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 3: That's the problem.

875
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:03,479
Speaker 4: Yeah.

876
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 2: Well, the Carck Island thing you Atrita is that's something

877
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 2: really interesting to me. When I talked to him on Saturday,

878
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 2: A great interview, you guys should I'll go and check

879
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 2: that out if you haven't already. He was like, what

880
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 2: the Iranians are going to take note of is that

881
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 2: Trump did not bomb the oil infrastructure on carg Island.

882
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: He made a lot of noise and a lot of

883
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 2: bluster about, you know, how hard he was going to

884
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 2: hit the island, and then he just targets the military installations.

885
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 2: They will read weakness into that because it shows that

886
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: he is unwilling to damage the oil infrastructure that's going

887
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: to cause more economic problems for him, and that is

888
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 2: the area of the war that they are laser focused on,

889
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 2: how do we cause economic problems? So it showed to

890
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 2: them that the strategy was effectively working that Trump was

891
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 2: unwilling to go that far and damage those oil facilities

892
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 2: because of what the reverberations would be. He is afraid

893
00:41:57,880 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 2: of that market turmoil.

894
00:41:58,920 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 4: Again.

895
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 2: That's why all of the economic advisors were sent out

896
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 2: to the Sunday shows. That's why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen

897
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 2: is out trying to say whatever he's saying this morning.

898
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 2: That's why they announced their coalition of the unwilling to

899
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 2: open the Street of the Horror moves at some point,

900
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 2: potentially theoretically in the future, because he hates to see

901
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 2: the market chaos and he knows that it will be

902
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 2: devastating to his presidency, especially given the fact that the

903
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 2: American people are buy and large not on board with

904
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 2: this conflict, we're not bought into it already. We can

905
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 2: put the gas prices up on the screen. They've gone

906
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 2: up significantly. Now the national average is actually looking at

907
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 2: it live this morning, it's three dollars and seventy two cents,

908
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: So it's ticked up even a little bit from when

909
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 2: we made this graphic yesterday evening. There is no state

910
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 2: in the country where gas remains under two dollars. I

911
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 2: can tell you, you know, two weeks ago when I went

912
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 2: to my local gas station, it was under two dollars

913
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 2: in state of Virginia. And Virginia's kind of like the

914
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 2: midpoint of where all of these you know, all of

915
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 2: these states are and what they're experiencing. You look out

916
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 2: on the West coast, those red states read in terms

917
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 2: of the color on this picture, not in terms of

918
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 2: their political leanings. California five dollars and fifty three cents,

919
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,959
Speaker 2: Oregon four dollars and forty nine cents. You know, all

920
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 2: of these are basically over four dollars, with the exception

921
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 2: of New Mexico and Colorado. So already you know there's

922
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 2: a real toll being taken at the gas pump that

923
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 2: you know filters through all kinds of economic choices that

924
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: people make, and that is felt immediately by the American people.

925
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, five fifty eight.

926
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,959
Speaker 3: Gallon is so crazy. I mean, it's always so high

927
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 3: in California. I don't know what you people are doing

928
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 3: out there. I know the weather's nice, but at a

929
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 3: certain point, I just don't get it unless you're filthy rich,

930
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 3: which I know most of the Walmark I've seen the

931
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 3: average income of statements whenever it comes to California. On

932
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 3: top of all the tacks. Wow, anyway, let's go to

933
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 3: B seven. Let's put this one up here on the screen.

934
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: You flag this one. The hoop Thies are now threatening

935
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 3: to actually enter the war, they say, regarding the decision

936
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 3: to stand alongside EA. This decision has been made. We

937
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 3: are monitoring the situation with our finger on the trigger. Therefore,

938
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 3: Yemen's participation is a matter of time. I think what

939
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 3: this demonstrates because remember what they would be able to

940
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,839
Speaker 3: try and shut down as the Red Sea. And if

941
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 3: you take a look at a map right now with

942
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 3: disclosure of the straits of our moves, there's the Saudi

943
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 3: Arabian Pipeline, the East West Pipeline, which is trying to

944
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 3: export about seventy percent of their current oil capacity from

945
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 3: the pipeline around the Straits of Hormoves.

946
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: Now.

947
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 3: The issue though, is that if the who these were

948
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 3: to enter, I think that would be like a dead

949
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 3: man switch on the entire region. You close the Straits

950
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,439
Speaker 3: of Hormus and you close the Red Sea. What that

951
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 3: means in both the scenarios is that you actually shut

952
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 3: down oil export completely in the region. I think maybe

953
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 3: others can agree, is that this is something being held

954
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 3: in reserve for future escalation, even though it does feel

955
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 3: like it's been forever. It's only the third week of

956
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 3: the war, right, and they have to last potentially for

957
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 3: a long time in this confrontation with the US and

958
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 3: with Israel. And I actually think if you look at

959
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,919
Speaker 3: the current Iranian strategy, what they want is to wide

960
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 3: in the war, to spread both of these nations thin,

961
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 3: and to punish them as much as they can. So

962
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 3: with Israel, we're going to talk about that here in

963
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 3: a second. Already they're invading Lebanon. They have called up

964
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,879
Speaker 3: several hundred thousand reservists, or at least they're ready to go.

965
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 3: If they need to, they might have to do a

966
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 3: literal ground invasion, an occupation of southern Lebanon with Hasbulah,

967
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 3: they could get into some sort of ground war there.

968
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 3: We know that they're running low on interceptors, so they're

969
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 3: trying to bleed them through Hasbulah. At the same time,

970
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 3: with the United States, they have the current economic conflict

971
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,760
Speaker 3: that's happening. They're just you know, shooting all these places

972
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 3: in the Gulf. But what they could do is if

973
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 3: things ratchet up, let's say, with an occupation of carg

974
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 3: Island and we cut off total Iranian output, they'll get okay,

975
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 3: We're going to cut off all oil export in the

976
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 3: entire region and just ramp up all strikes on critical

977
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 3: oil infrastructure. So that's where I would kind of see

978
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:53,720
Speaker 3: the who these as of right now. And then finally

979
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 3: we wanted to put this video B eight please just

980
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 3: to show everybody this happened a couple of days ago,

981
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 3: actually just happened again this morning. Is these Fujaira oil

982
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 3: terminals in the UAE, which is a huge export hub,

983
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 3: were actually struck by Iranian drones now multiple times. In

984
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 3: addition to Dubai International Airport. This is just in the

985
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 3: last forty eight seventy two hours. So to show you

986
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 3: that after those strikes on carg Island, this is immediately

987
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 3: what the Iranians decided to do, and they remain able

988
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 3: to escalate in that way because of their drone technology.

989
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 3: And I think you know, just when you put it

990
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 3: all together, you are watching the golf economies truly on

991
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 3: the brink B ten if we can, just to show

992
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: all of you, Bloomberg News writing this up, that the

993
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 3: golf economies are currently at risk of the worst slump

994
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 3: since the nineteen nineties on the Iran War, there has

995
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 3: been a massive contraction. Let's say in Dubai real estate,

996
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 3: let's put B eleven up there on the screen. This

997
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 3: is currently like a third of its value in just

998
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 3: nine days if you look at the publicly traded real

999
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 3: estate companies of the developers and the landlords in the area.

1000
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 3: So the entire architecture of Dubai, which is basically banking

1001
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 3: for the global super elite. No matter who you are,

1002
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:12,319
Speaker 3: we welcome you into Dubai, all these influencers and all

1003
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: these other people, it really is going to challenge their standing.

1004
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 3: And while that's really painful for them, remember they have billions,

1005
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,399
Speaker 3: hundreds of billions of dollars invested in our companies too,

1006
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 3: And if they're upset, they can pull a lot of

1007
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 3: that investment and they can go looking elsewhere.

1008
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 1: Because they have no morals and no scruples, they'll go.

1009
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 3: To anybody who is going to protect them and or

1010
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 3: backstop their economy. So it's already, like you said, it's

1011
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 3: a world war. We are in a world war. It

1012
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 3: doesn't have to look like the old world wars. That's

1013
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 3: one of the common fallacies that people always think is

1014
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 3: that they're like, oh, the new war is going to

1015
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 3: look exactly like the old one, and then within about

1016
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 3: a month people are like, oh, this one's actually totally different.

1017
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 1: And here we are.

1018
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Epstein class fleeing Dubai is the TLDR there.

1019
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 2: And last note that I'll put out here. I'm just

1020
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,479
Speaker 2: seeing this online Axios reporting that Trump is considering putting

1021
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 2: boots on then to seize Iran's carg Island. Appears to

1022
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 2: be contingent on if tankers remain bottled up in the

1023
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 2: Persian Gulf. And you know that would be no small

1024
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: task because again, you're on this island. Sure could you

1025
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 2: take it? Can you bomb the hell out of it.

1026
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,319
Speaker 2: Can you, you know, land your marines there or whatever

1027
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 2: you're going to do. I'm sure you can. Then you're

1028
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 2: on this island very close to Iran, where you know

1029
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 2: they're going to be in position to cause some problems

1030
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 2: for you and create a lot more casualties than we've

1031
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 2: already had. And so it's you know, it's that would

1032
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 2: be boots on the ground would be a dramatic escalation.

1033
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:37,280
Speaker 2: I think it's something Frankly, the Iranians are waiting for.

1034
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 2: I mean that's what they've said publicly, and I don't

1035
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 2: think it's just a bluff because they know that they

1036
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 2: have a lot of strategic advantages if you actually have

1037
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 2: boots on the ground in the country. And the other

1038
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 2: thing I'll say about it is, you know, carg Island

1039
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 2: obviously very important. As you said, ninety percent of their

1040
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 2: oil exports flow through carg Island. They do have other options,

1041
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 2: there are other contingencies, so it's not like they would

1042
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 2: be totally completely screwed in towards in terms of oil

1043
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 2: exports if we were to Seizekarg Island. I believe it

1044
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 2: was attacked in the Irana Rock War and they were

1045
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 2: able to to go in other directions, and so they

1046
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 2: do have some backup facilities and mechanisms, but you know,

1047
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 2: we'll have to keep an eye on that. Thing is

1048
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 2: just continues going up the escalation chain, as you said,

1049
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 2: just like Robert Pape predicts.

1050
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, we have about two thousand, five hundred marines that

1051
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 3: are on their way to the Persian Gulf.

1052
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 1: They were diverted from.

1053
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 3: An exercise in the Indo Pacific Marine Expeditionary Force. There

1054
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 3: are already about fifty thousand marines that are in the region.

1055
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:40,319
Speaker 3: So it is a big question why do you need

1056
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 3: this Marine Expeditionary Force. I did speak with an expert.

1057
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 3: He said that they may be able to bolster, let's say,

1058
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 3: some of the security if there is some sort of deployment.

1059
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 3: But I mean, anytime you're calling in more troops, it's

1060
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,239
Speaker 3: not good. It's usually not good. All right, let's get

1061
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 3: to Mortaza Husseani standing by joining us now is Mortaza

1062
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:01,799
Speaker 3: Hussein of drop Side News. Great friend of the show.

1063
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 3: It's good to see you man, Thanks for joining us,

1064
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. All right, so let's break down

1065
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 3: some of the military interceptor problem that we're already beginning

1066
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 3: to see in Israel. First, we're going to start with

1067
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 3: C one. We have a video here from NBC News

1068
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 3: been verified, but we're all going to watch. I mean,

1069
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: this is the problem in a nutshell. You are watching

1070
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 3: two Israeli interceptors try to shoot down this incoming Iranian missile.

1071
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 3: They both miss, and you watch as it strikes deep

1072
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 3: in the heart of Tel Aviv, in the middle of

1073
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 3: a city. This comes on the heel mas of this

1074
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 3: new report from my friend Shelby Talcott over at Semaphore.

1075
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 3: Let's put that one up there on the news. Israel

1076
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:46,959
Speaker 3: is running critically low on interceptors. Reportedly enter the current

1077
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,759
Speaker 3: We're already low and have now informed the United States,

1078
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 3: so they need to be topped up. Obviously, we have

1079
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 3: ourselves a very finite supply. So what do you make

1080
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 3: of the ongoing munitions and interceptor problem after only two

1081
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 3: weeks of war.

1082
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 6: Well, you know, the crazy thing is that before the

1083
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 6: war started, this was seen as maybe the pre eminent

1084
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,359
Speaker 6: reason not to have the war. But there are many

1085
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 6: other reasons we're seeing now with the straight up four

1086
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 6: moves and so forth, very die reasons, but arguably the

1087
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 6: number one reason was the lack of the interceptors. These

1088
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 6: interceptors are trimly expensive. They're very time consuming to produce.

1089
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 6: I believe in the previous years US sometimes going to

1090
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 6: produce a dozen in a year or something like that.

1091
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 6: They're very, very finite, both for the US and US allies,

1092
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 6: and as you showed that video, oftentimes you have to

1093
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 6: fire several interceptors to try to defeat a single Iranian missile,

1094
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 6: and maybe it won't even be successful. So the math

1095
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 6: kind of favors the Iranians here. Really, the US Israeli

1096
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 6: goal would have to be to suppress Iranian fire before

1097
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 6: the interceptors run out. There's no indication that Iranian missiles

1098
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 6: have run out right now. They're inspiring at a slower pace,

1099
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 6: but they've also said that they're planning for a war

1100
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 6: which can go on for months or even years potentially,

1101
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 6: so it could be the tempo of their operations. We

1102
00:51:57,520 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 6: don't really know a lot of this stuff is classified,

1103
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 6: but we do on now that the interceptor fears that

1104
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 6: were racing before the war and now being leaked out,

1105
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 6: And if we're in a situation where the Iranians is

1106
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 6: so firing and the interceptors are out, that's very disastrous

1107
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 6: for the Israelis sided in this case. And one last thing,

1108
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 6: these interceptors aren't tended to defend the whole world, so

1109
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 6: they're tend to defend the US positions in Asia. They're

1110
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 6: needed in Ukraine as well too, So if you're draining

1111
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 6: down the global supply in one theater, there's going to be.

1112
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 8: Tremendous knock on effects.

1113
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 6: And you can actually incentifize escalation in Asia because you're

1114
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 6: making it easy for the Chinese North Koreans because they

1115
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 6: don't have the same defense munitions to face that they

1116
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:37,760
Speaker 6: are which tribute used now in Iran.

1117
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and what about I feel like we're being gas

1118
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 2: lit about the amount of Iranian capacity that has been

1119
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 2: taken out by the Israelis and the Americans. You know,

1120
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 2: the sort of race is between the US and Israel

1121
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 2: trying to destroy not just the missiles but the missile launchers,

1122
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 2: and you know, their stockpiles of interceptors running out as

1123
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 2: Irn continues to be able to fire missiles and then

1124
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 2: also use drones to menace the region. So what do

1125
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:05,399
Speaker 2: we know about how much the Iranian capacity to fire

1126
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 2: missiles has been degraded and what their stockpile of these

1127
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:10,800
Speaker 2: shot head drones is as well.

1128
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 8: Well.

1129
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 6: You know, almost from the beginning of the war, the

1130
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 6: US and Israel said that they've eliminated Iran's ability more

1131
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 6: or less to fire missiles, using figures like sixty ninety

1132
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 6: percent in terms of destruction of launchers and so forth.

1133
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 8: There's missed some contributing evidence about that.

1134
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,319
Speaker 6: It's hard to say exactly what we can say for

1135
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 6: sure that the Irans are so firing more than two

1136
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 6: weeks into the war, which is something I don't than

1137
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 6: people expected. Secondly, pre war, they had very significant capacity

1138
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 6: for manufacturing missiles, but also these shot head drones. You

1139
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 6: mentioned the drones. Some estimates say they can cost less

1140
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 6: than ten thousand dollars each. Iran entered serial production of

1141
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 6: the drones many years ago, so they were mass producing

1142
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 6: them for a very long period. And it's sort of

1143
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 6: a variable that surprisingly the US and Israel didn't account

1144
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 6: for before, which is that these cheap drones give Iran

1145
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 6: precision strike capacity far beyond at a greater scale than

1146
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 6: people would have undersaid before. I think it'd be very

1147
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 6: hard to shut down the straight up form moose, for instance,

1148
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:09,280
Speaker 6: before without these drones.

1149
00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 8: You need to have actual ships go out there. You

1150
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 8: need to mine it.

1151
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 6: I need maybe artillery launchers at the shore and so forth.

1152
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 6: But now that these drills are very accurate, you can

1153
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 6: fly them into ships and some that's gonna say the

1154
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 6: minds of tens of thousands. It could be fighting them

1155
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 6: for you know, many many years.

1156
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 8: Even then.

1157
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 6: They're still producing them now, even perhaps in facilities embedded

1158
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 6: in the mountains underground, the Elbowars mountains. So I think

1159
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 6: that the whole mythos that Iran had no production capacity,

1160
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 6: had no ability to resist, but sort of giving the Trump,

1161
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,800
Speaker 6: probably with the israelis more to make it seem like

1162
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 6: a cake walk to get in this situation which he

1163
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 6: has now.

1164
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,479
Speaker 3: Mind, one of the things, Miles, that we've been looking

1165
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 3: at in particular, are some of these new cluster minitions.

1166
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 3: Let's put see four up there on the screen, just

1167
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 3: to give everybody an example. This is from CNN, but

1168
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 3: there are multiple other reports out here how the use

1169
00:54:56,520 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 3: of cluster munitions is actually challenging is really air defense.

1170
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 3: See there is actually say an unnerving spectacle that has

1171
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:05,799
Speaker 3: become a feature of the war in Israel, outfitting some

1172
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 3: of the ballistic missiles with cluster munitions that pierce through

1173
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:12,720
Speaker 3: Israel's sophisticated air defense systems carry up to eleven pounds

1174
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 3: of explosives. They cluster and explode over so that way

1175
00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 3: they can't be intercepted and that they can hit over

1176
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 3: a multiple mile radius.

1177
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 1: So the fact that they are still able.

1178
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 3: To launch ballistic missiles and even drones, I think does

1179
00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 3: fundamentally challenge the US narrative. The US narrative is, what

1180
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 3: is it ninety five percent of production, and then they'll

1181
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 3: say that launches are down. What I've noticed, though, is

1182
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 3: that our strikes are also down. So in terms of

1183
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 3: the number of initial strikes that happened in the first

1184
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 3: couple days of the war, our strikes seem to be

1185
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 3: also significantly down, so called precision strikes, not counting the Israelis,

1186
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 3: of course, who are just bombing whatever they desire. But

1187
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 3: what we continue to see is that after a couple

1188
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:54,959
Speaker 3: of weeks, they're still able to launch missiles, They're still

1189
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,279
Speaker 3: able to hit drone not launch drones. They're able to

1190
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 3: launch and hit critical infrastructure. And even if we do

1191
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 3: hit all the production facilities that we know about, there

1192
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 3: could be many others that we don't know about. So

1193
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 3: this seems to spell a country able to resist for

1194
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 3: the medium to long term or do you see it differently?

1195
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 6: No, I totally agree with you. And you know, one

1196
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 6: thing is very important in the war. As much as

1197
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 6: devastations happened in Iran so far, it's mostly been in

1198
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 6: the western and central parts of the country. There's a

1199
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 6: huge eastern part of the country which is kind of

1200
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:25,400
Speaker 6: out of the range of these air strikes, and it

1201
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 6: has not really been affected. It wasn't affected in the

1202
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 6: last war either, just because it's much more difficult to strike.

1203
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 6: So you know, they've been preparing for this conflict for

1204
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:36,959
Speaker 6: literally generations. They've dispersed the product facilities around the country,

1205
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 6: underground and so forth, so it's very, very difficult to

1206
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 6: completely destroy it. Although they arguing gremendous damage to Iran's

1207
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 6: industrial base. I think that you know, you know, if

1208
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 6: you look at the Iranian statements and take them for

1209
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 6: what they will, but they claim that they haven't even

1210
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 6: fired the missiles that produce in the last decade. They

1211
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 6: say they fire the older missiles and they're saving them

1212
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:56,719
Speaker 6: more advanced ones for later in the conflict when they

1213
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 6: expect that the Israeli defenses will be down further. These

1214
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 6: acts that have been taking place on the missile defenses Israel,

1215
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 6: for instance, they're all basically down payments on future attacks

1216
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:10,400
Speaker 6: because if you can use your less advanced missiles upfront,

1217
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 6: you drain down the defense batteries on those, and they

1218
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:16,040
Speaker 6: can use the more advanced once later on for more

1219
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 6: and more devastating attacks. And that seems that what they're

1220
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 6: doing here specifically, and you know, to your other point,

1221
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 6: the way that these air campaigns operate is that they're

1222
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 6: more intense at the beginning. You have all your assets

1223
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 6: and there the shot can happens upfront. And the US

1224
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 6: strategy was that in the SHOTG and NAW should collapse

1225
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 6: the Iranian government, they shouldn't be in the position to

1226
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 6: continue firing because, as you said, the patent intensity, if

1227
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 6: the US operations decreases over time for logistical reasons, and

1228
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 6: even Israeli operations will decrease over time.

1229
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 8: So I think that now the great situation where the US.

1230
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 6: Ability to course by the air is actually decreasing, because

1231
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 6: the sortie rate is decreasing, logistics are becoming a factor.

1232
00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 6: I Meanwhile, the Iranian fire rate is staying relatively stable now,

1233
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 6: and that's not an advantageous position. Iranians designed this war

1234
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 6: to be a marathon, whereas the Israeli US preference as

1235
00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 6: a sprint, and now it seems like we're entering the marathon.

1236
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, very interesting.

1237
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 2: You know, what do we know about the actual damage

1238
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 2: inside of Israel and the GCC member states. These are

1239
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 2: all authoritarian countries. We've been talking here about the level

1240
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 2: of censorship, the threats against anyone posting any of the

1241
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 2: images of destruction. We also have these private satellite companies

1242
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 2: that have decided to do the bidding of the US

1243
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 2: and Israel and take down their satellite images so that

1244
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 2: they are no longer accessible, so we can't see the

1245
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 2: extent of the damage here.

1246
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:35,200
Speaker 8: Well, you know, it was very notable.

1247
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 6: Up to about March seventh, we were seeing satellite images

1248
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 6: of very serious destruction at the US military bases in

1249
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 6: the region. Advanced radars, including for the SAD radar system,

1250
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 6: one of which are being moved from South Korea now

1251
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:50,440
Speaker 6: to replenation in the Middle East. So the Iranians had

1252
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 6: pretty accurate precision strike capacities against US military assets throughout

1253
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 6: the Gulf and also targets in the Gulf and we've

1254
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 6: seen the non reports of people being arrested in very

1255
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 6: large numbers in the UI and elsewhere for taking photos

1256
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 6: of the aftermath of these strikes.

1257
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 8: Israeliz similar censorship in place.

1258
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 6: I'm not sure the level of extent of total damage

1259
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 6: per se at the moment, because I don't think the

1260
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:17,880
Speaker 6: Iranians are actually trying to inflict physical damage or even

1261
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 6: kill people specifically that then be a byproduct of the operations.

1262
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 6: But the one thing that aiming to do is to

1263
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 6: increase economic pain globally. Say that if you're taking us

1264
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 6: down and take everyone down with you, specifically in the

1265
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 6: Gulf States, and also to unnerve the Israelis and keep

1266
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 6: them in a position of long term war that can

1267
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:38,680
Speaker 6: also manifest and greater distraction down the road if the

1268
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 6: interceptors run out. So right now, the Iranian position is

1269
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 6: not actually to create mass havoc. They're trying more to

1270
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 6: keep the temperature at a level that they can maintain

1271
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:50,080
Speaker 6: and that they prefer.

1272
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 8: So I think the question now is what would your

1273
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:53,440
Speaker 8: response be?

1274
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:55,919
Speaker 6: And you know, like I said, and Sager who says,

1275
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 6: what to these strike rates are going down?

1276
00:59:57,920 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 8: So can the US escalate? Blue?

1277
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 6: The US has to in they eight parts of Iran

1278
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 6: or launching ground operation. It's actually headed in that direction,

1279
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 6: either as a capitulation or escalation, and neither is a

1280
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 6: very enviable prospect. And I will say one thing I

1281
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 6: think this morning, I was actually looking at Iranian news.

1282
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 6: There was a airstrike against a very strange target. It

1283
01:00:17,880 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 6: was the civilian headquarters for an electricity company, and many

1284
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 6: several engineers and employees were killed at the company. I

1285
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 6: don't think they're expecting to be struck. It wasn't the

1286
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 6: military target. So I think what the is really a

1287
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 6: US strategy now, and this is probably is really strike,

1288
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 6: to be honest, is more to if you can't course

1289
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 6: them militarily, see if you can inflict so much civilian

1290
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 6: pain to the infrastructure and so forth. Did they just

1291
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 6: capitulate for that reason, Yeah, but I think that that

1292
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 6: also will not be the case.

1293
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:45,600
Speaker 8: I don't think they're capitulate now. Everything it's that happened

1294
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 8: at this point.

1295
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 1: Oh of course.

1296
01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, even trying to do that with

1297
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:50,600
Speaker 3: ground troops is itself a nightmare.

1298
01:00:50,640 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just let's kill all the electricians.

1299
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 3: It'll surely work out, just like it did in Iraq, right,

1300
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 3: you know, take out the civil servants, make sure that

1301
01:00:57,440 --> 01:00:59,919
Speaker 3: you collapse the country into civil war, and of course

1302
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 3: nothing will blow back on all of us. We did

1303
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 3: want to get your reaction. Could put C five up

1304
01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The Iranians are warning. The Iranian

1305
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 3: Secretary of the Supreme National Council is warning that remaining

1306
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 3: members of Epstein's network have devised a conspiracy for false

1307
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:17,560
Speaker 3: flag attacks similar to nine to eleven that will be

1308
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 3: blamed on Iran. Let's put all of his you know,

1309
01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 3: propaganda and rhetoric and all that aside, even though some

1310
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 3: of it might even be true. What should we make

1311
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 3: then of this warning? Obviously the Trump allies are going

1312
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 3: to say, well, that means he's planning something. And then

1313
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:35,680
Speaker 3: of course others, many of us were very skeptical about

1314
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 3: any potential major terrorist attack here on US soil, or

1315
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 3: some sort of precipitating event which would a Gulf of Tonkin,

1316
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 3: let's say something like that, for example, which would require

1317
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 3: you know, some sort of escalation.

1318
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:49,000
Speaker 1: It is clear are they trying to you?

1319
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 3: What do you make of their statement then, of why

1320
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 3: they're putting it out?

1321
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 8: Well, I think the number of things.

1322
01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 6: First of all, the invocation of Epstein is quite common

1323
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:00,920
Speaker 6: in the Iranian communications about the war, partly because they

1324
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 6: want to highlight the corruption of the ruling class of

1325
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 6: the US, that this situation going on literally right before

1326
01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:11,280
Speaker 6: the war, So that's something that become a common part

1327
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 6: of their public communications. Secondly, I do think they're trying

1328
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:16,640
Speaker 6: to emphasize and they don't have a conflict with the

1329
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 6: American public. It's a kind of a very consistent messaging

1330
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:23,000
Speaker 6: in the Iranian politics. Even during Ali comedy, you have

1331
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:25,680
Speaker 6: this notorious and denunciations of the US, but he would

1332
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 6: often differentiate that from the American people and say it's

1333
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 6: a conflict with the American ruling class. So this is

1334
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 6: kind of consistent with that. And finally, you know, I

1335
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 6: do think that there is a possibility that the US

1336
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:40,240
Speaker 6: government or is Israeli government especially could engineer a circumstance

1337
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:43,640
Speaker 6: that creates a casses belly for escalation or try to

1338
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 6: create greater public support for escalation, because right now this

1339
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:49,120
Speaker 6: war is very unpopular with the US, especially the most

1340
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:53,400
Speaker 6: unpopular war perhaps started by polls at as outset we've

1341
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 6: ever seen, at least in our lifetimes certainly, and as

1342
01:02:56,840 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 6: time goes on. Wars don't become more popular, it become

1343
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:03,120
Speaker 6: less popular, especially when casualties start mounting. And we're going

1344
01:03:03,200 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 6: to see very soon when inflation starts going crazy in

1345
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:08,520
Speaker 6: the United States because of oil prices and woop prices,

1346
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 6: and then many many things that are going to be

1347
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 6: affected by the blocking and the straight ed form moves.

1348
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:14,120
Speaker 8: People are gonna be very upset working at them.

1349
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 6: Back on board is some sort of incidents that causes

1350
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 6: you know, alarm or fear and results in people's rallying

1351
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:24,840
Speaker 6: to the war itself. That could be an attack like

1352
01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:27,080
Speaker 6: the was alluded to that statement. But I also think

1353
01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:31,680
Speaker 6: that these push to seize Carved Island in Iran by

1354
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:34,320
Speaker 6: Lindsay Graham and others, that is something which is almost

1355
01:03:34,360 --> 01:03:37,280
Speaker 6: certainly going to generate US casualties. It could generate catastrophic

1356
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 6: US casualties if you look at the actual geography of

1357
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 6: the island and what.

1358
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 8: Could that Michigan could entail.

1359
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:44,360
Speaker 6: So I think it's actually a trap to try to

1360
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:47,600
Speaker 6: get more Americans killed in some way in order to

1361
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 6: make the war popular, which is not popular when started.

1362
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, wow, can we put C six up on the scrays?

1363
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 2: You know, I'm sure Ma's there are all kinds of

1364
01:03:56,240 --> 01:04:01,160
Speaker 2: rumors online that Netnahu has been killed by the Iranians.

1365
01:04:01,640 --> 01:04:03,240
Speaker 2: He waited a few days and then he put out

1366
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 2: this video of him in a coffee shop. Now the

1367
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 2: sluicer saying this one may be Ai too, in an

1368
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 2: attempt to turn this into an intelligent question. I was

1369
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 2: taking a look at some of the new polling that

1370
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:19,959
Speaker 2: has come out about Americans views of Israel, and I mean,

1371
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 2: compared to where the country has been historically. The negativity

1372
01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 2: that Americans feel towards this country is truly shocking, and

1373
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 2: I think is evidenced by the amount of excitement over

1374
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,520
Speaker 2: the idea that met Yau may have been killed. Here

1375
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:37,640
Speaker 2: You've got overall, only thirty two percent of Americans, according

1376
01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 2: to this NBC News poll, who have a positive view

1377
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:44,720
Speaker 2: of Israel, thirty nine percent having negative view. If you

1378
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:47,960
Speaker 2: look at the Independent and the Democratic numbers in particular,

1379
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:53,160
Speaker 2: I mean, it is stunning. Only thirteen percent of Democrats

1380
01:04:53,200 --> 01:04:56,160
Speaker 2: have a positive view of Israel. I think most of

1381
01:04:56,200 --> 01:04:59,240
Speaker 2: them are in DC or like Joshapiro, planning on running

1382
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 2: for president. So how much of Israel's calculation is the

1383
01:05:04,400 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 2: fact that they know the political landscape in the US

1384
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 2: is changing incredibly rapidly. They know that this current president,

1385
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:14,320
Speaker 2: who they can, you know, apparently get whatever they want from,

1386
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 2: and who you know, they funded his campaign overwhelmingly, that

1387
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:20,760
Speaker 2: he is, his party is very unpopular.

1388
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:21,800
Speaker 4: He's very unpopular.

1389
01:05:21,880 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 2: Democrats are very likely to retake the White House, and

1390
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:27,920
Speaker 2: then they have a very different situation potentially all on

1391
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:31,760
Speaker 2: their hands with regard to support from the American superpower.

1392
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 2: So how much of that logic plays into, you know,

1393
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 2: their sense like it's now or never. We got to

1394
01:05:37,600 --> 01:05:39,280
Speaker 2: do this thing, we got to do it all the way,

1395
01:05:39,880 --> 01:05:40,600
Speaker 2: come what may.

1396
01:05:41,440 --> 01:05:42,840
Speaker 6: Well, you know it's funny too we you look at

1397
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,840
Speaker 6: those stats, they're very stark. As he pointed out, I

1398
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:47,920
Speaker 6: think that even more starck. We segment them out for

1399
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:50,840
Speaker 6: age too, because even on the Republican size, more the

1400
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 6: Mark Levin generation, which is a very dug go about Israel,

1401
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 6: even younger conservatives are much more divided at least about

1402
01:05:57,920 --> 01:05:59,959
Speaker 6: the subject. So I do think that in a sense

1403
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 6: in public support, the clock is ticking. But you know,

1404
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:04,640
Speaker 6: despite that, it's kind of in cities. I think that

1405
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 6: they're still planning to hold on to American support, even

1406
01:06:06,920 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 6: if there's very low popular support for Israel because if

1407
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:12,480
Speaker 6: you look at the moves that the Israeli government's making

1408
01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:15,680
Speaker 6: with this administration, they're trying to embed many more years

1409
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:19,880
Speaker 6: of cooperation and you know, US support security wise and

1410
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:22,919
Speaker 6: others for a very very long time for Israel, making

1411
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 6: these memorandums of understanding for maybe ten fifteen years to

1412
01:06:25,840 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 6: continue not funding Israel quote unquote, but basically you know,

1413
01:06:30,560 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 6: doing defense cooperation, which winds up being the same thing.

1414
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:37,320
Speaker 6: And likewise, they're built the maintaining ties with the American elites,

1415
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:39,440
Speaker 6: so they would like to have a situation where they

1416
01:06:39,440 --> 01:06:41,480
Speaker 6: have very good relationship with American elites. They can sort

1417
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:44,200
Speaker 6: of change the legal landscape even in the United States

1418
01:06:44,800 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 6: to insulate themselves from criticism as much as possible from

1419
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 6: the public. It's sort of exploit the corruption of the

1420
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:53,000
Speaker 6: American political system to keep getting what they want.

1421
01:06:53,240 --> 01:06:55,680
Speaker 8: And I think that they actually aren't committed to giving

1422
01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 8: this up.

1423
01:06:56,040 --> 01:06:57,840
Speaker 6: Maybe I'll have to tone it down a little bit

1424
01:06:57,920 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 6: or be a little bit more behind the scenes, but

1425
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:03,640
Speaker 6: I think they would like to maintain a relationship with

1426
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:07,760
Speaker 6: American elites that survives American public hostility and that we

1427
01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 6: have presence for that the US cooperates very close to

1428
01:07:10,880 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 6: Satura Arabia for a very long time. Sarriga's not very

1429
01:07:13,080 --> 01:07:14,760
Speaker 6: popular in United States, but they still get quite a

1430
01:07:14,800 --> 01:07:17,080
Speaker 6: bit out of the American elites, and I think he

1431
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 6: Israelis like to move towards that. But two point, Crystal,

1432
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:22,160
Speaker 6: I do think that Netna, who right now is trying

1433
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:24,600
Speaker 6: to do a bank run on the United States, get

1434
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 6: as much out of it as he can at the moment,

1435
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:28,800
Speaker 6: because he mentioned he does have a very plied US president.

1436
01:07:28,920 --> 01:07:31,400
Speaker 6: But also he's thinking of his own end of his

1437
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 6: life and his legacy.

1438
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 8: He wants to be known as the.

1439
01:07:33,520 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 6: Guy who destroyed Iran, who you know, destroyed Gaza, did

1440
01:07:38,320 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 6: all these different things, and he knows that he has

1441
01:07:42,080 --> 01:07:44,240
Speaker 6: a great opportunity to do that right now. So I

1442
01:07:44,240 --> 01:07:47,080
Speaker 6: think that it's a confluence of the trends you pointed out,

1443
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:49,200
Speaker 6: but also Netnaho's own political calculations.

1444
01:07:49,280 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 8: Yeah.

1445
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 3: Literally, while you and I are talking, just came across

1446
01:07:52,200 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 3: hundreds of the thousands of Lebanese civilians being told they

1447
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 3: will not return to their homes. Israel completely invading southern Lebanon.

1448
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:01,880
Speaker 3: In a different world, that's a huge headline. What isn't

1449
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:04,040
Speaker 3: this the first invasion since two thousand and six, which

1450
01:08:04,040 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 3: at the time was a huge war.

1451
01:08:05,880 --> 01:08:06,760
Speaker 1: Everybody covered it.

1452
01:08:06,800 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 3: Now I mean effectively being told you can never come

1453
01:08:09,360 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 3: back until quote the safety is of Israelis living near

1454
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:14,920
Speaker 3: the border has ensured. Who wants to guess that it

1455
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 3: will never be insured the safety of Israelis and that

1456
01:08:17,800 --> 01:08:20,240
Speaker 3: we just saw another expansion of the Israeli state with

1457
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:21,120
Speaker 3: its borders.

1458
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 6: Absolutely, this is the many precedence for the past, and

1459
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:28,080
Speaker 6: according to the Israeli state ideology, the more hardcore versions

1460
01:08:28,080 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 6: of it, south of Lebanhar is part of Israelis. They

1461
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 6: have been the territorially irridentist due towards this, regardless of

1462
01:08:34,240 --> 01:08:36,799
Speaker 6: any security concern they wanted for other reasons.

1463
01:08:37,000 --> 01:08:38,559
Speaker 8: So I think this is this is just one of

1464
01:08:38,600 --> 01:08:39,280
Speaker 8: like seven wars.

1465
01:08:39,320 --> 01:08:41,320
Speaker 6: It's really a fighting at the moment, and it's very

1466
01:08:41,400 --> 01:08:43,600
Speaker 6: uncommon in history for a country to be like that.

1467
01:08:44,040 --> 01:08:47,120
Speaker 6: And the level of death has happened in Lebanon basically

1468
01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:49,120
Speaker 6: not reported so much because of all the other wars.

1469
01:08:49,160 --> 01:08:51,160
Speaker 6: Maybe eight hundred people who have been killed in just

1470
01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:54,639
Speaker 6: the four or five days, rapidly expanding every single day.

1471
01:08:54,720 --> 01:08:57,320
Speaker 6: The displacing that you mentioned. This is really a situation

1472
01:08:57,479 --> 01:08:59,600
Speaker 6: I don't think we've seen since like Imperial Japan, the

1473
01:08:59,600 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 6: country which is so brutal and so un multidirectionally violent

1474
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:08,560
Speaker 6: that it's almost become part of the national character. And

1475
01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:10,120
Speaker 6: there's also a lot of violence happening in the West

1476
01:09:10,200 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 6: End as well too at the moment, very escalated violence cleansing.

1477
01:09:13,680 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 6: So you know, that's not very popular most people in

1478
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:18,599
Speaker 6: the world, and people are just recoil against that, even

1479
01:09:18,600 --> 01:09:21,000
Speaker 6: countries in Europe which officially.

1480
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:22,080
Speaker 8: Support is real very strong.

1481
01:09:22,120 --> 01:09:24,959
Speaker 6: In Germany, if you look at public opinions, it's soured

1482
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:26,879
Speaker 6: quite a bit and very rapidly.

1483
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:28,479
Speaker 8: So you know, one.

1484
01:09:28,360 --> 01:09:31,599
Speaker 6: Wonder is if a country can survive a situation where

1485
01:09:31,840 --> 01:09:34,439
Speaker 6: it's unpopularity is growing so much more.

1486
01:09:34,960 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 8: I do think that they're planning for that, but you know,

1487
01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:39,479
Speaker 8: you know, there's no endgame.

1488
01:09:39,560 --> 01:09:39,800
Speaker 5: Really.

1489
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:42,000
Speaker 6: It seems like they would have wars that are going

1490
01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:44,400
Speaker 6: to be going on for many, many years, and I

1491
01:09:44,439 --> 01:09:46,080
Speaker 6: do think at some point there are questions that have

1492
01:09:46,160 --> 01:09:50,360
Speaker 6: that can be sustained absence you know, ongoing high levels

1493
01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 6: of political support abroad.

1494
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 1: Wow, thank you so much for go ahead.

1495
01:09:54,680 --> 01:09:57,360
Speaker 2: One last worry list of seven up on the screen

1496
01:09:57,720 --> 01:10:01,040
Speaker 2: I mean, this footage is just unbelievable of a drone

1497
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:03,360
Speaker 2: that has a pierced to a US base and you

1498
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:06,559
Speaker 2: can see it, you know, just flying around, will going

1499
01:10:06,560 --> 01:10:09,879
Speaker 2: wherever it wants to go, and ultimately we can continue

1500
01:10:10,000 --> 01:10:12,280
Speaker 2: keeping this up on the screen. Ultimately it hones in

1501
01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:15,080
Speaker 2: on a target and goes in here and causes some

1502
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 2: level of damage. And we know that US bases around

1503
01:10:17,600 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 2: the region have been damage. I mean, there's a good

1504
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:26,120
Speaker 2: chance that this effectively ends the US as the global superpower,

1505
01:10:26,160 --> 01:10:32,519
Speaker 2: as the you know, invincible hedgemon of the world. How

1506
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:35,640
Speaker 2: does Israel view that possibility? You know, is that a

1507
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 2: problem for them because US is such a benefactor for them?

1508
01:10:38,320 --> 01:10:40,599
Speaker 2: Is that a plus for them because WE are one

1509
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:43,880
Speaker 2: of their rivals for influence throughout the region. How do

1510
01:10:43,960 --> 01:10:47,960
Speaker 2: you think that they view that possibility?

1511
01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:49,479
Speaker 6: You know, I'll say two things, and I want to

1512
01:10:49,479 --> 01:10:51,400
Speaker 6: comment very quickly in that video too. I was very

1513
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:53,759
Speaker 6: frightened when I saw that video because that video reminded

1514
01:10:53,800 --> 01:10:55,639
Speaker 6: me of many many videos that seen like this from

1515
01:10:55,760 --> 01:10:56,760
Speaker 6: you put in Russia War.

1516
01:10:57,240 --> 01:10:59,400
Speaker 8: That's a fiber optic.

1517
01:10:59,200 --> 01:11:01,600
Speaker 6: Drone, so drone that it's very difficult to jam and

1518
01:11:01,640 --> 01:11:04,360
Speaker 6: so forth, and you know, we've seen so many videos

1519
01:11:04,360 --> 01:11:07,840
Speaker 6: of Russian soldiers running for their lives and being killed

1520
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:09,639
Speaker 6: by these drones the last moments of their life.

1521
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:12,280
Speaker 8: And now the drones are disseminating around the world, and the.

1522
01:11:12,320 --> 01:11:15,120
Speaker 6: US is in this war now in Iraq and Iran,

1523
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:17,840
Speaker 6: all these places because of the attack on Iran that

1524
01:11:18,160 --> 01:11:20,040
Speaker 6: you know, I don't want to see images of American

1525
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:21,240
Speaker 6: soldiers running from these drones.

1526
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 8: It's horrifying. Those those videos are very, very devastating.

1527
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:26,400
Speaker 6: So I think that that expanded that what I showed

1528
01:11:26,400 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 6: that video is a very very chilling sort of escalation

1529
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:31,639
Speaker 6: of the conflict in terms of the way the technology

1530
01:11:31,640 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 6: is diffusing the second wing.

1531
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:34,360
Speaker 8: You it's your point there, Crystal.

1532
01:11:35,120 --> 01:11:40,280
Speaker 6: What's happening right now is completely anatoma to conventional views

1533
01:11:40,360 --> 01:11:43,840
Speaker 6: of maintaining American interests abroad. That there's a theory in

1534
01:11:43,960 --> 01:11:47,760
Speaker 6: foreign relations that the ideal view for America abroad is

1535
01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:51,080
Speaker 6: to engage in the strategy of offshore balancing, and offshore

1536
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 6: balancing means that you know, you don't let any other

1537
01:11:53,400 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 6: country become the hedge of mind in its region. You

1538
01:11:56,080 --> 01:11:58,400
Speaker 6: keep a balance between them, because if they're a hedgemond,

1539
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 6: then they could start undermining our entry. What we're doing

1540
01:12:00,880 --> 01:12:03,439
Speaker 6: in Israel is something totally different from that. We're creating

1541
01:12:03,479 --> 01:12:07,559
Speaker 6: an Israeli hegemon. We are destroying all their enemies over years,

1542
01:12:07,560 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 6: and if you look at the last several decades, pretty

1543
01:12:10,439 --> 01:12:12,240
Speaker 6: much all of them have even been heavily suppressed or

1544
01:12:12,280 --> 01:12:15,599
Speaker 6: totally destroyed, and Roan is really the last one. So

1545
01:12:15,960 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 6: if you destroy Iran, you've created it is really superpower. Basically,

1546
01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:22,479
Speaker 6: Israel is the military superpowered the Region's a tremendous shift

1547
01:12:22,520 --> 01:12:25,040
Speaker 6: in what was maybe when they started as a very small,

1548
01:12:25,160 --> 01:12:28,400
Speaker 6: kind nacent country with US support, to become a superpower.

1549
01:12:28,600 --> 01:12:31,639
Speaker 6: So you've created a potential competitory to America in the future.

1550
01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:35,360
Speaker 6: Someone could stop American interests, someone who a country which

1551
01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:37,560
Speaker 6: is not very popular with Americans as well too that

1552
01:12:38,000 --> 01:12:40,920
Speaker 6: you're creating a potential enemy, someone's also embedded in your

1553
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:43,320
Speaker 6: own systems and surveillance in a very strong way.

1554
01:12:43,920 --> 01:12:45,759
Speaker 8: This is completely against American interests.

1555
01:12:45,800 --> 01:12:48,599
Speaker 6: Leave aside all the moral judgments and so forth about it.

1556
01:12:49,200 --> 01:12:53,439
Speaker 6: Creating another rival or potential rival, superpower or regional power

1557
01:12:53,600 --> 01:12:56,160
Speaker 6: has never been an American policy before the right thing

1558
01:12:56,240 --> 01:12:58,000
Speaker 6: to do is the balance is reel against his other

1559
01:12:58,280 --> 01:13:00,800
Speaker 6: neighbors and create a sort of astasis that Americans can

1560
01:13:00,840 --> 01:13:03,760
Speaker 6: be at top of and be the interlockerator for and

1561
01:13:03,800 --> 01:13:07,559
Speaker 6: so forth. Toping right now is very injurious. And if

1562
01:13:07,560 --> 01:13:09,840
Speaker 6: you have a situation maybe twenty years down the road,

1563
01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:12,400
Speaker 6: thirty years down the road, where American views in Israel

1564
01:13:12,560 --> 01:13:15,519
Speaker 6: have soured a lot. But because all Israel's enemies have

1565
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:19,080
Speaker 6: been destroyed by America's extremely powerful they can do that

1566
01:13:19,120 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 6: to stop our own interests in the region and abroad.

1567
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 6: They can use it to threaten people in America. It's

1568
01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:26,360
Speaker 6: not an Outlanta scenario. And Israel, despite everything, is not

1569
01:13:26,400 --> 01:13:28,599
Speaker 6: a treaty ally of the United States. And the reason

1570
01:13:28,640 --> 01:13:30,280
Speaker 6: you're not a treaty allies, if they're an ally, they'd

1571
01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:32,080
Speaker 6: have to support us if we had a problem. They

1572
01:13:32,080 --> 01:13:34,920
Speaker 6: didn't want to have them reciprocal relationship. It's a very

1573
01:13:35,000 --> 01:13:37,920
Speaker 6: one way sponsorship relationship. So I think that you know,

1574
01:13:37,960 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 6: this destruction of Iran, potentially the degradation of Iran and

1575
01:13:41,360 --> 01:13:44,200
Speaker 6: everything that may happen going forward, this is something which

1576
01:13:44,240 --> 01:13:48,599
Speaker 6: is tremendously injurious to American interests, and you know, it's

1577
01:13:48,640 --> 01:13:51,320
Speaker 6: against the basic philosophy of American form policy.

1578
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:52,679
Speaker 8: Has been constructed for a century.

1579
01:13:52,840 --> 01:13:54,559
Speaker 4: Yes, you're right, very interesting.

1580
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:57,400
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, sir, appreciate you guys.

1581
01:14:01,479 --> 01:14:03,160
Speaker 8: Att