WEBVTT - Here’s Why Russia Is Escalating Its Shadow War

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Stephen Carroll and this is Here's Why, where we

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<v Speaker 2>take one new story and explain it in just a

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<v Speaker 2>few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>A European intelligence official is telling Bloomberg Russia may ramp

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<v Speaker 1>up hybrid attacks against the Baltic States and Poland. There

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<v Speaker 1>have been a number of such incidents.

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<v Speaker 2>There was one in Latvia last week.

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<v Speaker 1>There have been others in Bulgaria and Romania, and astray

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<v Speaker 1>missile indeed in Poland. Things like cybersecurity or malign influence, coercion,

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<v Speaker 1>cutting under sea cables, airspace violations, democrats.

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<v Speaker 3>Our country and our democracy are threatened to an extent

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<v Speaker 3>we could not have imagined until recently. Germany is now

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<v Speaker 3>constantly the target of hybrid attacks by foreign powers, and

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<v Speaker 3>this is a real and very acute danger.

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<v Speaker 2>The incidents are multiplying and the warnings are getting louder.

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<v Speaker 2>Four years into Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, there's

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<v Speaker 2>been an increase in drone activity in NATO airspace, as

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<v Speaker 2>well as arson attacks and an assassination attempt that have

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<v Speaker 2>raised red flags with authorities around Europe. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 2>intelligence officials are worried about Russia adopting new tactics against

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<v Speaker 2>countries supporting Kiev. Here's why Russia is escalating it's shadow

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<v Speaker 2>war with Europe. Are Europe Executive editor Chad Thomas joins

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<v Speaker 2>me now for more. Chad, first of all, what exactly

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<v Speaker 2>do we mean when we talk about shadow warfare or

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<v Speaker 2>hybrid tactics.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Stephen, what we're really talking about here is that

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<v Speaker 1>Russia is waging two different wars. There's the war that's

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine. That's the visible war. That's the war that

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<v Speaker 1>we think of as conventional warfare where there's an actual battlefield.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, there's also the shadow warfare going on there

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<v Speaker 1>as well. But then in Europe you have hybrid attacks,

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<v Speaker 1>you have cyber attacks, you have the drone warfare where

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<v Speaker 1>oftentimes these things are linked by security officials, Western security

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<v Speaker 1>officials to Russia, but there's no Russian claim ever that

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<v Speaker 1>they were the ones behind it. And that's really the

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<v Speaker 1>shadow warfare where there's efforts to undermine Western democracies. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>when you think about the politics the elections in the

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<v Speaker 1>countries from Russia, but where Russia isn't actively saying they're

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<v Speaker 1>the ones doing it.

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<v Speaker 2>What are the sort of recent incidents that have ray

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<v Speaker 2>suspension of Russian involvements, even if, as you say, there

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<v Speaker 2>haven't been official claims of responsibility.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, of course, one of the main things is all

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<v Speaker 1>of the drone warfare that we've seen. And I of

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<v Speaker 1>course normally am in Berlin in Germany, and there was

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<v Speaker 1>one incident just last week where there was a discussion

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<v Speaker 1>a drone that was hovering over an airport in eastern

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<v Speaker 1>Germany where a lot of goods are flown into Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>from that airport, and a drone was found there and

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<v Speaker 1>people were questioning where did this drone come from? And

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people, of course were pointing the finger

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<v Speaker 1>back to Russia, or Russia didn't claim that it was

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<v Speaker 1>from them. But it's these sorts of incidents that we've

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<v Speaker 1>been seen along the whole. If we think about the

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<v Speaker 1>eastern border of the EU, the eastern border of NATO,

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<v Speaker 1>all sorts of drones that have in the last months

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<v Speaker 1>have ended up in a lot of countries where people

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<v Speaker 1>are wondering where did they come from?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, logically enough, we have so many of those items

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<v Speaker 2>causing alarm in places like in Poland and in Romania

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Lat Viga's president has been quite upfront about this.

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<v Speaker 2>He says Russia's already waging hybrid war in Europe. We've

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<v Speaker 2>been reporting, though, on the concern among intelligence officials about this.

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<v Speaker 2>What exactly have we learned about what they're saying.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, what Latvia is saying in intelligence officials in particular,

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<v Speaker 1>what they're concerned about is whether Russia would plant a

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<v Speaker 1>false flag, so they do something where they try to

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<v Speaker 1>make it appear that Ukraine is the one behind an

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<v Speaker 1>attack or some sort of an incident in another country,

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<v Speaker 1>or or a false flag even within Russia. They use

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<v Speaker 1>that as an argument for why they launched some sort

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<v Speaker 1>of counter offensive, whether it's into a Baltic state. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't have evidence that they're going to do that, but

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<v Speaker 1>this is something that intelligence officials are talking about or

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<v Speaker 1>as reasoning to take even further measures when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the invasion of Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>What do we know about why Russia is adopting this

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<v Speaker 2>strategy and just what its aims are.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of it, I think is to undermine simply the

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<v Speaker 1>support in Western societies for Ukraine. If you sow a

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<v Speaker 1>political confusion or if you're able to influence who gets

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<v Speaker 1>selected in a particular society. If we think about what

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<v Speaker 1>happened with Romania, where Russia was behind someone who was

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<v Speaker 1>a far right candidate for the Romanian presidency and ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>that person had advanced to the second round of the

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<v Speaker 1>presidential election, that of course, as you know, was stopped

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<v Speaker 1>by the Romanian Constitutional Court. But those sorts of efforts

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<v Speaker 1>that you could actually change then the direction of a country.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the very least you sew confusion, disillusionment within

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<v Speaker 1>society of further support for Ukraine. And what we definitely

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<v Speaker 1>see is that those countries that are openly vocally supportive

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine, that is where you see more of this

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<v Speaker 1>hybrid warfare and sort of these social and media attacks

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<v Speaker 1>and so on.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and indeed, and of course when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>approving things like sanctions at a European level, you need

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<v Speaker 2>to have all EU member states on board, so a

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<v Speaker 2>question of destabilizing one having a wider effect as well.

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<v Speaker 2>What about the response, How are European countries and NATO

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<v Speaker 2>responding to this threat?

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<v Speaker 1>That I think is the real challenge that we face

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<v Speaker 1>because NATO is set up for conventional warfare, and when

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<v Speaker 1>we think about what has happened with all of the

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<v Speaker 1>drone incursions. Often there's a drone that flies into Romanian

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<v Speaker 1>airspace or flies into Polish air space. It's a very

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<v Speaker 1>small piece of equipment, also not a very costly piece

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<v Speaker 1>of equipment. And what is the NATO response to that?

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<v Speaker 1>They scramble fighter jets to try and shoot down these drones.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also very hard using fighter jets to shoot down

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<v Speaker 1>a drone. When they scramble the jets of the drone

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<v Speaker 1>actually flies lower to the ground. So NATO has talked

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<v Speaker 1>a lot and the EUS talked a lot about the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that they have to build a drone wall to

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<v Speaker 1>stop these drones. But at this point that really hasn't materialized.

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<v Speaker 1>They're still often using these conventional forces to fight a

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<v Speaker 1>war that has changed very significantly in the types of

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<v Speaker 1>mnutions you're seeing being used.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course this is the question. There's active conflicts

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<v Speaker 2>like what's happening in Ukraine or indeed what's happening in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East as well, put strain on the supply

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<v Speaker 2>for those measures that you can use to counter drones

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<v Speaker 2>as well. And that's another part of this puzzle. When

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<v Speaker 2>we're looking at the level of incidents that are happening

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment that are being either linked to Russia

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<v Speaker 2>or suspected of being connected to Russia as well. Are

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<v Speaker 2>there signals that these are increasing? Is it moving towards

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<v Speaker 2>a more serious conflict with Russia? I mean, does this

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<v Speaker 2>point us in the direction of an escalation?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, certainly some of the countries on the eastern border

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<v Speaker 1>of NATO would say that the incidents have been increasing,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're concerned about the fact that there's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be more hybrid warfare. They're concerned about this potential false

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<v Speaker 1>flag and what that could bring about. And I was

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<v Speaker 1>looking before our conversation, there have been forty drone incursions

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<v Speaker 1>or more than forty drone incursions in Romania alone in

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<v Speaker 1>the last months, where the government is suspecting that those

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<v Speaker 1>drones are coming from Russia. On top of this, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>you have all of the jamming of drones, both on

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian side and the Ukrainian side, which means that

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<v Speaker 1>there's concern that there could be truly an accident where

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<v Speaker 1>there's some sort of incident with the drone that one

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<v Speaker 1>of the two countries is trying to fly into the

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<v Speaker 1>other and it ultimately ends up in Poland or in

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<v Speaker 1>the Baltic States.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, of course, at the risk of what an instant

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<v Speaker 2>like that would provoke in terms of a response, very

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<v Speaker 2>much in focus for authorities as well. Chad, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>very much for joining us. Our executive editor for Europe,

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<v Speaker 2>Chad Thomas. For more explanations like this from our team

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<v Speaker 2>of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world, go

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<v Speaker 2>to Bloomberg dot com slash explainers. I'm Stephen Carroll. This

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<v Speaker 2>is here's why. I'll be back next week with more.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening.