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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go there throwing in so spec

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Speaker 3: I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash stop. We see most gambles when they

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Speaker 1: go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

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Speaker 3: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 2: director of Media and Research here at the Action Network,

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Speaker 2: and as always I am joined by the one and

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Speaker 2: only Brandon Anderson. Brandon, what's going on? How's it going?

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Speaker 3: No, it was a slog a day of football, but

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Speaker 3: we had a one and a fun comeback. So it

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Speaker 3: feels nice to settle in and you know, ready to

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Speaker 3: talk football for better and for worse.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, geez. So let's start with this Sunday night football game.

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Speaker 2: So Detroit gets the win twenty six to twenty three.

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Speaker 2: They actually the interesting market point of view here was

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Speaker 2: it was three and a half for Detroit at about

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Speaker 2: seven o'clock Eastern, so about an hour before kickoff on

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Speaker 2: our consensus line, and that last hour got bet up

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Speaker 2: to four and a half. So if you didn't watch

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Speaker 2: the game. There was a lot of interceptions, about seven

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Speaker 2: in the entire game. Goff had five himself, and they

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Speaker 2: came back from sixteen points down. And Houston really started

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Speaker 2: the game fantastic. I mean, first four drives it was touchdown,

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Speaker 2: field goal, field goal, field goal. Then they happened to punt,

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Speaker 2: and then they got another touchdown again. I mean they

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Speaker 2: were up twenty three to seven. GoF was throwing interceptions

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Speaker 2: left and right. He had three in the first half,

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Speaker 2: and Houston had ten points off of those two turnovers.

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Speaker 2: So they were doing their job themselves, especially after not

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Speaker 2: looking so good and having some time to prep before

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Speaker 2: this one. So listen, Detroit went into the half down sixteen.

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Speaker 2: It was their biggest deficit in almost a year, and

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Speaker 2: they ended up coming back their biggest comeback since twenty

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Speaker 2: fourteen as a franchise, so a long time than they

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Speaker 2: even had to do this. And now they're eight and one.

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Speaker 2: And the funniest thing about this game, and I actually

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Speaker 2: haven't looked right now, and I can in a second

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Speaker 2: when you take over, but Goff went from seven to

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Speaker 2: one to win MVP. From what I saw at some

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Speaker 2: of these sportsbooks that were twinting to forty to one

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Speaker 2: to an MVP when he threw the five interceptions, and

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Speaker 2: so I'm just curious, like the market going back and

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Speaker 2: forth got to be insane. We had seven interceptions in

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Speaker 2: the first thirty seven minutes of game time in this one.

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Speaker 2: It was just absolute chaos. And you could tell when

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Speaker 2: Houston couldn't put more points on the board after they

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Speaker 2: got to twenty three and Detroit started to chip away,

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Speaker 2: that we might have a problem here. The thing that

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Speaker 2: I really took a look at when you looked at

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Speaker 2: the comeback was Detroit second half on the ground. Believe

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Speaker 2: you had about one point eight yards per carry in

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Speaker 2: the first half and between five and six depending on

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Speaker 2: where they finished in the second half. I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of us question the decision on kicking the field

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Speaker 2: goal from fifty eight for Houston, maybe go for it,

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Speaker 2: maybe punt put them in a better position versus kind

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Speaker 2: of setting Detroit up to win the game. And then

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Speaker 2: a few stats before I hand it back to you,

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Speaker 2: So game actually officially goes under the forty nine and

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Speaker 2: a half, finishing it on forty nine. So Sunday Night

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Speaker 2: Football under is now eight and two this year thirty

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Speaker 2: nine and seventeen last three years, and the theory going

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Speaker 2: around that is the time that Al Michaels stepped away

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Speaker 2: from Sunday Night football. You've been thirty nine and seventeen

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Speaker 2: to the under So pretty crazy there, and I think

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Speaker 2: the underlying storyline for Houston. They are now in one

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Speaker 2: and nine against the second half spread this year, worst

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Speaker 2: mark in the NFL. Stroud's been terrible in a lot

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Speaker 2: of these second halfs. They got outscored nineteen nothing tonight,

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Speaker 2: but just quickly before we moved to the next game.

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Speaker 2: Brandon anything on Sunday Night.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna note the second half Texans thing

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Speaker 3: as well. They just have not been shown up in

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Speaker 3: these second halves. Bobby Slowek, you know it got a

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Speaker 3: lot of praise last year offensive cornerator for the Texans.

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Speaker 3: He was the big name, like he got he almost

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Speaker 3: they were thought we were lucky to keep him because

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Speaker 3: he was supposed to take a head coaching job, and

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Speaker 3: now fans, Houston fans are calling for his head. If

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Speaker 3: you look at the numbers game after game, Houston in

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Speaker 3: their like first three drives, come out and march down

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Speaker 3: the field, get some points and then nothing after that,

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Speaker 3: and like we kept seeing this game. I tweeted out,

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Speaker 3: how many times can you run into the in the

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Speaker 3: middle of the line on first down play after play

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Speaker 3: when you're getting like a yard of kirie basically from mixing.

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Speaker 3: So it's just not creative enough. It's it's way too much,

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Speaker 3: all right, second and long, third down? CJ. Stroud, can

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Speaker 3: you bail us out again? Look? C Stroud's great. CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud is bailing them out again most of the time.

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Speaker 3: But this was a spot where Houston had you know,

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Speaker 3: they haven't played a Monday night game in year, so

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Speaker 3: this is Monday night football for them. This was the

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Speaker 3: big one. They're missing Will Anderson on defense, their best

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Speaker 3: player defensively, They're missing Nico Collins, who they've been terrible

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Speaker 3: offensively without. They're up on the Lions, the best team

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Speaker 3: in the NFC, clearly the best team in the NFC,

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Speaker 3: with a chance for this marquee huge win to shut

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Speaker 3: up all the naysayers and finally and say okay, look

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Speaker 3: here's who we are. And they gave it away and

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Speaker 3: it was it was right there for them. You basically

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Speaker 3: clinched the division. You're set up to, you know, possibly

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Speaker 3: be the two seed and the AFC and you just

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Speaker 3: give one away here, and it's a tough spot in

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Speaker 3: a game where in that first half, just both sides

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Speaker 3: of the ball, just watching the line, they were flying

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Speaker 3: off the ball. They were looking so good and they

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Speaker 3: just kind of fell apart late and you felt it

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Speaker 3: coming because you knew that Texan second half stat that

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Speaker 3: they were not going to hold up. And it's just

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Speaker 3: it's become a troubling trend this season, something to keep

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Speaker 3: an eye on, because the Texans aren't going anywhere. Their

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Speaker 3: division is so bad that they're still going to be

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Speaker 3: in this all the way. They're going to be in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs very likely, but they're right there. We saw

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Speaker 3: how good they can be. The Lions are the most

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Speaker 3: likely to the super Bowl, you know, representative, they were

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Speaker 3: dominating that team. This is a super Bowl possible team,

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Speaker 3: but it's also the other team that we saw in

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Speaker 3: the second half. Jared Goff, I think this is why

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Speaker 3: we still can't really buy him as an MPP favorite.

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Speaker 3: He still is thirty nine to one, so no bounce

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Speaker 3: back even despite the comeback there, And I think this

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Speaker 3: is why people are going to struggle seeing Detroit as

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Speaker 3: a super Bowl favorite type team because it's still Jared Goff. Right,

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Speaker 3: it's still Goff, and they're as good as he's been

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Speaker 3: the last few weeks. We know we've seen this before

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Speaker 3: other times. Doesn't mean he can't, but he might just

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Speaker 3: have to actually do it for us to believe it.

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Speaker 3: And doing it is not week seven, eight nine. It's

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Speaker 3: in this spot, which he did to be fair, but

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Speaker 3: the Lions dead, but it's doing it in January. It's

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Speaker 3: doing an outdoors in his case. So yeah, fun game.

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Speaker 3: We deemed an otherwise not great day of football, and

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Speaker 3: it looked like it was going to be not great

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Speaker 3: Sunday night either, but then we got the thing half comeback,

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Speaker 3: so finished with the bang.

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Speaker 2: So you're saying next week against Jacksonville's not gonna do

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Speaker 2: it for you either. If Goff takes over there, I

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Speaker 2: get it. But that spread is ten up to twelve

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Speaker 2: and a half. We don't know if it's Mac Jones

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence, so we'll see going forward. All right, let's

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Speaker 2: go to the next game here. It's Pittsburgh and Washington.

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Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh wins twenty eight to twenty seven as one

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Speaker 2: and a half point underdogs. The total sales over forty

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Speaker 2: five and a half. This trend here really is Tomlin

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Speaker 2: and the Steelers now three and oh straight up and

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Speaker 2: against the spread is underdogs this year and Tomlin best

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Speaker 2: coach of one hundred and fifty six coaches in our

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Speaker 2: bet Lab database. As an underdog does his job. What

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Speaker 2: else do you got for us, Brandon?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this was good to raw Raw Tomlin spot and

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Speaker 3: a little spoiler. We'll be getting back to raw Rod

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Speaker 3: Tomlin in the hot read later on. This was really

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Speaker 3: the big game of the day. Who would expected Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: Washington was the big game of the Sunday afternoon slate.

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Speaker 3: This is a good game twenty eight twenty seven, kind

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Speaker 3: of back and forth. It ended like half an hour

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Speaker 3: later than the entire early slate. I'm not too sure

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Speaker 3: how kind of felt like, you know, the late slate

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Speaker 3: they start the one good game later on so that

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Speaker 3: you kind of get to watch at the end. I

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Speaker 3: don't know how we did that, but we kind of

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Speaker 3: did that. Here. Commander's got all sorts of break. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: goes for a fake punt, I think, like a hot

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Speaker 3: red fake punt in their own red zone, wide open.

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Speaker 3: It just drop it. They just didn't complete the pass,

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Speaker 3: so they get a Washington easy touchdown that Washington then

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Speaker 3: gives it back later on with a short touchdown off

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Speaker 3: of their punt mistake to the Steelers. Pittsburgh gets to

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Speaker 3: the one late down. Six fumbles at the one seem

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Speaker 3: like Washington was gonna yet again and catch these breaks.

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Speaker 3: But Pittsburgh Russell Wilson only fourteen of twenty eight in

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Speaker 3: this game. He's been making a living since coming in

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Speaker 3: on these moonballs, right, and it wasn't happening until it

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Speaker 3: was at the end. Mike Williams only his ninth snap

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Speaker 3: as a Steeler, just bear leaving on the field after

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Speaker 3: the trade deadline acquisition. He gets a touchdown at the end.

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Speaker 3: The numbers weren't great for Wilson today, but he got

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Speaker 3: the one yolo Ballwight got over the line. To me,

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Speaker 3: not really huge takeaways from the game. I think these

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Speaker 3: teams are relatively even. I think they played pretty even football.

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Speaker 3: More interesting to me is how do we think of

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Speaker 3: these teams going forward? And I actually think this might

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Speaker 3: give us a chance to buy Lo Sell high a

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Speaker 3: little bit. Here. Washington falls to seven and three. They

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Speaker 3: play again in four days. They play Thursday night, in

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Speaker 3: Philadelphia seven and two Eagles. That's a big, big spot

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Speaker 3: for them. Obviously, I've been looking to fade Washington back

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Speaker 3: half of the season because they had a really tough schedule. However,

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Speaker 3: that really tough schedule now includes two Cowboys game that

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Speaker 3: are not looking so really tough anymore, a Saints game

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Speaker 3: that's not looking like what it was supposed to be

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Speaker 3: early in the season, and these two Eagles games. If

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Speaker 3: they can go to Philadelphia and win this game, they

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Speaker 3: are looking really good, not just in the division, but

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Speaker 3: even for like the two seed in the UNFC. Atlanta

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Speaker 3: loses today, the NFC West is still kind of up

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Speaker 3: for grabs. I think Washington now the way their defense

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Speaker 3: has improved, the way Jane Daniels continues to play well,

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Speaker 3: not great in this game, but tough defense, and he

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Speaker 3: did all right, like he didn't make any huge big mistakes.

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Speaker 3: I like the over ten and a half that was

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Speaker 3: supposed to be four today that might even drop or

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Speaker 3: get better juice now because they lost here. I think

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Speaker 3: the division odds if you like them, Thursday is a

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Speaker 3: good way to play them against the Eagles. I think

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Speaker 3: there might be something to this Washington team on the

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Speaker 3: flip side Pittsburgh seven and two now, and I think

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Speaker 3: right now is what everyone's gonna get comfortable and the

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Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin. Here we are again and over five hundred.

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Speaker 3: We're doing it again. Pittsburgh's remaining schedule all six division

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Speaker 3: games still and the other two are the Chiefs and

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Speaker 3: the Eagles. It is a brutal schedule coming up. They

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Speaker 3: were heading into the day plus three point forty to

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Speaker 3: miss the playoffs. I think we're probably gonna get like

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Speaker 3: a plus five hundred now. I don't know if you

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Speaker 3: missed the playoffs in the AFC, like Cincinnati lost, the

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Speaker 3: Jets lost, the Colts lost, the Broncos lost. Somebody has

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Speaker 3: to make the playoffs. I don't know necessarily how you

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Speaker 3: fade Pittsburgh, And again I will be directly not fading

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh next week when we get back to the hot read.

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Speaker 3: But I don't necessarily know that the five hundred streak

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Speaker 3: for Tomlin is on lock just yet. And I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think Pittsburgh is fine, but I don't think that

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Speaker 3: they're seven and two fine. So I think we should

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Speaker 3: be cautious about getting a little too ahead of our

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Speaker 3: skis on them as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Pittsburgh looks like they've got about the eighth easiest schedule,

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Speaker 2: while Washington is all, yeah, down in that list. So

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Speaker 2: we'll see how that goes. All right, let me move

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Speaker 2: on to the next game here, we're gonna go with

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Speaker 2: the morning slate, the Germany game, Giants at Carolina. Carolina upsets,

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Speaker 2: the Giants wins twenty seventeen in overtime at six and

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Speaker 2: a half point underdogs, still goes under thirty seven even

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Speaker 2: though the game goes to overtime, a very Giants in

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Speaker 2: Carolina thing to do. And I looked it up, about

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Speaker 2: sixty four to sixty five percent of games ten go

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Speaker 2: over when it goes to overtime, but obviously not this one.

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Speaker 2: So the storyline going in was the fact that Carolina

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Speaker 2: has been an underdog in like thirty straight games. The

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Speaker 2: Giants were an underdog in twenty four straight. They met

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Speaker 2: and the Giants streak ended here. Giants hadn't been favored

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Speaker 2: till Week two last season against Arizona, so it'd been

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Speaker 2: a little bit. You look at the box score, you

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Speaker 2: see three hundred and sixteen passing yards, You say, that's

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Speaker 2: a good day, and then I tell you, well, that's

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Speaker 2: actually Daniel Jones and Bryce Young combined. They both had

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Speaker 2: five yards per attempt DJ through two interceptions directly, neither

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Speaker 2: directly turned into points, so it wasn't that bad of

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Speaker 2: a situation. It was just a really sloppy game. Both

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Speaker 2: Carolina touchdowns came on eighty plus yard drives and the

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Speaker 2: turnovers did them in, especially the one by Tracy in overtime,

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Speaker 2: which was unfortunate because he was one of their best players.

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Speaker 2: He had over one hundred yards. He looked great. Giants

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Speaker 2: obviously the entire time don't really deserve to cover the

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Speaker 2: game under fifty percent according to Action Hour cover percentages

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Speaker 2: for about three and a half quarters, so Carolina should

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Speaker 2: have covered the game, and they ended up beating them

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Speaker 2: in the end. The reason was the ground game. Carolina

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Speaker 2: absolutely killed them thirty two of one to eighty eight,

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Speaker 2: almost six yards on the ground. The problem with the

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Speaker 2: Giants rush day. They've now allowed six straight games of

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Speaker 2: one hundred plus yards for New York one eight, one

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Speaker 2: sixty seven and two sixty nine in their last four games,

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Speaker 2: which is not good with a defense that you know,

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Speaker 2: holds the field, goals good at sacks, but not lately.

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Speaker 2: Only sacked Bryce once and have two sacks in the

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Speaker 2: last two games versus him and Jade and Daniels, and

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Speaker 2: the trend to kind of end here. Bryce Young wins

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Speaker 2: his first career NFL game away from home. He was

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Speaker 2: zero to ten straight up entering today, and this ends

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Speaker 2: up being the second biggest money line underdog to ever

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Speaker 2: cash in an international game. Plus two forty five on

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Speaker 2: the money line for Carolina, and not much to say

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Speaker 2: going forward because both these teams kind of stink. But

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Speaker 2: Carolina has won two in a row, so that's kind

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Speaker 2: of fun.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we get Carolina Island back. We're only two games back,

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Speaker 3: three games back in the division now. Now, yeah, look,

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Speaker 3: we gave Germany Chiefs Dolphins last year, so I think

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Speaker 3: this was the makeup game, you know, Giants Panthers. On

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Speaker 3: the other end, we're done with international football. No more

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Speaker 3: Sunday mornings.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I was told we got like eight games next year,

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Speaker 2: so this is just going to be the beginning. Both

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Speaker 2: these teams on a bye this week, so that's good

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Speaker 2: for them. Get a little rest after the trip, all right, Denver,

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Speaker 2: Kansas City? Whoof what a wild one this one? So

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Speaker 2: Casey wins sixteen to fourteen. They don't cover the seven

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Speaker 2: and a half point spread at home, shocker. With Mahomes

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Speaker 2: as a big favorite, total goes under forty two and

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Speaker 2: a half. So the nine and oh Chiefs have now

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Speaker 2: won nine straight games in which they trailed in the

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Speaker 2: second half, which is a record, and Mahomes himself nineteen

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Speaker 2: and fourteen straight up in his career after being down

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Speaker 2: ten plus points at any point. Just stupid numbers. What

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Speaker 2: else you got, Brandon?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this was the script for Denver, right,

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Speaker 3: this is exactly what you want the game to be.

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Speaker 3: Denver goes up fourteen to three. Denver gets the ball

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Speaker 3: back twelve plays forty three yards in the last six minutes.

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Speaker 3: They burned through all three Chiefs timeouts, bow knicks kind

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Speaker 3: of making some plays. They get up for a thirty

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Speaker 3: five yard field goal, which is an absolute chip shot

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Speaker 3: in today's day, and age zero is on the clock.

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Speaker 3: Blockfield goal. Chief stay unbeaten. Poor seventy two dolphins out

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Speaker 3: there right to pop the Champagne're gonna have to wait

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Speaker 3: another week, maybe just one though, because the Chiefs play

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Speaker 3: in the Buffalo next Sunday afternoon. Certainly the biggest chance

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Speaker 3: that they have to lose a game at this point.

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Speaker 3: They're underdogs in that one, as I think that they

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Speaker 3: should be. Patrick Mahomes has been a god on a

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Speaker 3: third down this season. He's only seven of sixteen today,

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Speaker 3: and we saw he didn't quite move that well right

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Speaker 3: We saw the ankle kind of get rolled up each

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Speaker 3: of the last couple of games. I think we saw

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Speaker 3: the effects of that a little bit. Still, just not

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Speaker 3: a team that overwhelms you right now. Danner Hopkins at

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Speaker 3: four catches for fifty six yards. He's the only receiver

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Speaker 3: on the Chiefs that even had more than one catch today,

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Speaker 3: and Chiefs one of four in the red zone, not

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Speaker 3: able to kind of finish drives off and left this

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Speaker 3: game there for the taking. They're nine to oh, now

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Speaker 3: seven and oh in one score games. We know historically

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Speaker 3: that is a number that tends to be fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 3: Of course, you have Patrick Mahomes, then maybe that doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: But is there any chance, you know, last year around

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Speaker 3: this time, we had a team in the NFC that

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Speaker 3: was winning, winning, winning all these one score games. I

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Speaker 3: think they were like eight and one the Philadelphia Eagles,

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Speaker 3: and then things went very sideways down the stretch. For

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Speaker 3: that team, and it turns out even the really good teams,

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Speaker 3: even though well coached teams, can't win one score games forever.

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Speaker 3: Is this that I don't know that that team did

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Speaker 3: not have Patrick Mahomes, but in Buffalo next Sunday, that

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Speaker 3: certainly is the game that we will be talking about

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Speaker 3: high up in our list next week. Chiefs have not

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Speaker 3: won any game by more than thirteen points yet this season,

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Speaker 3: but they are nine to zero. They are plus four

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Speaker 3: fifty to go undefeated. That's where we're at. Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 3: is inevitable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and an underdog again next weekend, as you mentioned.

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Speaker 2: So that's all you're gonna hear all week is that stats.

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Speaker 2: So can't wait. Hopefully Buffalo ends that. Let's talk about

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Speaker 2: our big stat of the week before we move on

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Speaker 2: to the best of the rest. Honestly, it's underdogs. So

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Speaker 2: this week dogs goes ten to three against the spread

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Speaker 2: and during Monday night football. Best week of the year

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Speaker 2: so far for underdogs. And this was a fun one

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Speaker 2: I just pulled together as I was looking through some

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Speaker 2: numbers from the NFL this week. So teams who have

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Speaker 2: won the turnover margin this year are covering just seventy

359
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Speaker 2: two point four percent of games. That would actually be

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Speaker 2: the lowest mark. ATS percentage in the wildcard era for

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Speaker 2: a full season last year was three percent higher, and

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Speaker 2: that was still the second lowest mark since two thousand.

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Speaker 2: So turnover margin lately just hasn't been equaling ATS success,

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Speaker 2: which is just an interesting trend that I've been kind

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Speaker 2: of tracking and looking over all. Right, let's keep moving

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Speaker 2: on here. Let's talk about the best of the rest.

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Speaker 2: So San Francisco in Tampa Bay. San Francisco wins. The

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Speaker 2: game was I wrote down twenty three twenty three, which

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Speaker 2: obviously can't be right. It was twenty three to twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty on the road in Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: as a six and a half point favorite. Total goes

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Speaker 2: under fifty and a half. Honestly, the story here is

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Speaker 2: probably Jake Moody going three for six on field goals.

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Speaker 2: That's the difference in the spread. But what else do

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Speaker 2: you have here, Brandon, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Jake Moody hates the hot read. That's the story for me.

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Speaker 3: We had the Niners minus five and a half, third

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Speaker 3: round pick. Jake Moody can't make a field goal? Crazy

379
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Speaker 3: miss a forty nine miss a fifty, missed a forty four,

380
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Speaker 3: but you know what, get the forty four yard walk

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Speaker 3: off winner. All is forgiven in San Francisco. At least

382
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Speaker 3: McCaffrey is back finally, first game of the season. Thirteen carries,

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Speaker 3: thirty nine yards rushing. That's not that exciting. He did

384
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Speaker 3: have six catches for sixty eight yards. Had a nice,

385
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Speaker 3: really pretty thirty yard I kind of over the shoulder

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Speaker 3: adjustment catch. Didn't show a out of burst just yet,

387
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Speaker 3: So keep an eye on that. We'll see as that

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Speaker 3: just kind of rust after. You know, this is a

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Speaker 3: preseason game for him effectively, or is he just not

390
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Speaker 3: all the way back yet. I'm gonna keep an eye

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Speaker 3: on there. Rock purty Man three hundred and fifty three yards,

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Speaker 3: two scores to zero point four nine EPA per place,

393
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Speaker 3: almost half a point per play. He looks great, man like.

394
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Speaker 3: He is playing like I think a borderline top ten quarterback.

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Speaker 3: And it's not a guy I would have said that

396
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Speaker 3: about before. He does not look like a Shanahan system guy.

397
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Speaker 3: He's moving around, he's chucking it downfield, he's making plays.

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Speaker 3: I had never really thought about this, but Baker Mayfield

399
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Speaker 3: on their late drive is kind of making some wild plays,

400
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,199
Speaker 3: stiff arms Nick Bosa and throws us crazy for you know,

401
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 3: fourth down completion kind of a little rock purty ish,

402
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Speaker 3: right like our Brock party and Baker Mayfield like the

403
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Speaker 3: Spider Man meme. I don't really hate that, a little wild,

404
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,959
Speaker 3: a little more than you'd like it to be, but

405
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Speaker 3: they kind of make things happen. U. Look, the Bucks

406
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Speaker 3: had no business covering here. San fran is six point

407
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Speaker 3: eight yards of play to three point seven for Tampa.

408
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 3: They almost doubled them up in yardage. Tampa Bay only

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Speaker 3: had three drives all game over twenty seven yards. Just

410
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Speaker 3: really to me the story, even though it's about Niners

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Speaker 3: offense and those missfield goals, and then Niners might quietly

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Speaker 3: have a Super Bowl defense, what if the offense gets

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Speaker 3: healthy and figures this thing out. I looked up Nick

414
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Speaker 3: Bosa odds. He was good again. He's got five and

415
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Speaker 3: a half sacks now for defensive player of the year.

416
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Speaker 3: He was twenty to one heading into this game. San

417
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Speaker 3: fran was thirteen to one to win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: This week, They're still fifth in odds. I think a

419
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Speaker 3: little bit shorter now, but this team is kind of

420
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Speaker 3: just hanging around a little bit, and the defense is

421
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Speaker 3: looking pretty good. Look, Ayuk's not coming back, he's out

422
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Speaker 3: for the year, but Juwan Jennings looks good. The rookie

423
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Speaker 3: Ricky Piersoll that literally took a bullet in preseason catches

424
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Speaker 3: his first touchdown today. George Kittle had a late touchdown,

425
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Speaker 3: pretty catch. It's a lot of weapons, a lot of

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Speaker 3: good stuff there. Niners, I think are still in this thing.

427
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Speaker 2: Yeah, next week's important too, at home against Seattle Divisions.

428
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Speaker 2: Really tight, got to take care of business and kind

429
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Speaker 2: of like under the radar Blackbardy might have had one

430
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Speaker 2: of the best days today with two touchdowns, no interceptions,

431
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Speaker 2: three hundred and fifty plus yards. Look good against Tampa defense.

432
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here. Philly at Dallas has

433
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 2: had to go somewhere in the rundown. Philly wins thirty

434
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 2: four to six as a seven point road favorite in Dallas.

435
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 2: Total goes under forty five. Just another blowout from the

436
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 2: afternoon slate, which you know you could have literally taken

437
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 2: a nap, which I would have advised many of you did.

438
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 2: I think overall, this was the worst points per game

439
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 2: differential at home since the merger for any team. Dallas

440
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 2: is minus twenty three point five through four home games.

441
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: It's even higher than the two thousand and eight Lions,

442
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 2: which was at twenty two. Dallas's last five home games

443
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 2: at the half trailing fourteen six, twenty seven to six,

444
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: twenty one, six, thirty five, sixteen, and twenty seven to seven.

445
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 2: It is just bad after bad after bad. I do

446
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 2: have to say this since we were talking about Cooper

447
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 2: Rush earlier in the week, and you know, he had

448
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 2: been good in his previous six starts. He was five

449
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 2: and one against the spread. Dallas was scoring, you know,

450
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 2: over seventeen and twenty points in a lot of those games.

451
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 2: Today he had forty five passing yards on twenty three attempts.

452
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 2: He was a first quarterback since Anthony Wright in two

453
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 2: thousand and one with forty five yards or less on

454
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: twenty three plus attempts. It just doesn't happen. And those

455
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 2: are one of the worst numbers I've seen. I think

456
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 2: the simple formula here two point six yards per play

457
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: for Dallas, five point four for Philly. They were just

458
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: playing a completely different game. Dallas had five turnovers and

459
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: then from Philly's point of view, hurts played fantastic again.

460
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 2: I mean his sixteen total touchdowns and one pick in

461
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,719
Speaker 2: his last five games. Phillies five to zero in those games.

462
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 2: And then I think the important part, which you've seen

463
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 2: this year, if you've watched Philly play, the Eagles have

464
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 2: played nine games. When aj Brown plays, they're six to oh,

465
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 2: averaging about a little over thirty points per game. When

466
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: he doesn't, they're one and two, averaging about seventeen points

467
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: per game. And then I think the last thing. These

468
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 2: teams have big games next week. Now. I think Dallas

469
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 2: is going a different direction. But at football against Houston

470
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: coming off this you know, tragic loss tonight, I think

471
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: is an interesting game. Nonetheless, will it be Trey Lance?

472
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: Will it be Cooper Rush? But the other game you

473
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: mentioned before Washington and Philly is fantastic, So can't wait

474
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 2: for that? All right? Give anything there you have me

475
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 2: to move on?

476
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, just wrapping the Trey Lance jersey. You only get

477
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 3: to wear that so many times these days. I hope

478
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 3: we get to see him Monday night. Let's let's go

479
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 3: Falcon Saints here.

480
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: I honestly think I was gonna say, I honestly think

481
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 2: we should see Trey Lance at this point, I think

482
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 2: I think you got what you saw at a Cooper rush.

483
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 2: I don't think he's the future. You might as well

484
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 2: go through both of them, assume probably DA's done and

485
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 2: find out you know what you have so you can

486
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 2: figure out a decision next.

487
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 3: But nothing to lose. If Trey's bad, that's great. You

488
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 3: get a better draft pick out of it. Your seasons

489
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 3: shot anyway, but you may as well find out if

490
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 3: there's something there and maybe get some trade bait out

491
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 3: of it.

492
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 2: Hey, Trey Lance beats the Texans next week, we have

493
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 2: a whole different conversation, all right, Atlanta, New Orleans. New Orleans.

494
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 2: New Orleans wins twenty seventeen as a three and a

495
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 2: half point home dog against the Falcons those under forty

496
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: six and a half. The trend here is just the

497
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: fact that you have the dead cat bounce with New Orleans.

498
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 2: So now forty teams have fired their coach in season

499
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 2: regular seasons since two thousand and three. Those teams are

500
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 2: eighteen and twenty two straight up, twenty three and seventeen

501
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 2: against the spread in their first game follow the following

502
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 2: the firing, So a nice win for New Orleans. They

503
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 2: look good at times here, Atlanta always as always has

504
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: trouble stringing together wins. So what do you got here, Brandon?

505
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, Alanta dominated the game outside of Marcus Valdez Scantling,

506
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 3: who I don't see many people even knew was on

507
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 3: the Saints. They picked him up a few weeks ago.

508
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 3: No Orleans just picks up any receiver they feel like,

509
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: and they're like, hey, you're our deep threat. Now you're

510
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 3: gonna catch a couple forty yard passes a game. So

511
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: what's he do? Three catches, one hundred nine yards and

512
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: two scores. I think probably the top Fantasy receiver of

513
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 3: the day. And look, as a Vikings fan, I've seen

514
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: this game before. Kirk Cousins has his team missed three

515
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 3: field goals, another one of those, and then the last

516
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 3: two drives, still in chance to win the game, Kirk

517
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 3: Cousins intercepted at the Saints thirty two, and then on

518
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: the last play of the game, fourth down clock running,

519
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 3: Kirk throws at short of the stakes clock runs out

520
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 3: the end the game. Vikings Fantasy in that movie before

521
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 3: this is the Kirk Cousins film, and we're on like

522
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,880
Speaker 3: the twentieth sequel at this point, Atlanta can't give away

523
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,719
Speaker 3: games like this, like they are in such easy, good positioning,

524
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: and you know, want to know for New Saints coach

525
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 3: Rizzy the rat from the Muppets by Tennis Allen, I.

526
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 2: Mean, preseason, this was the game you would assume Atlanta

527
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 2: would win this year if you were betting on them,

528
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,959
Speaker 2: especially with the lack of offensive production. Let's call it from

529
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 2: New Orleans' point of view, Kamara dropped a long touchdown

530
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 2: like there was opportunities for Atlantas to win the Atlanta

531
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 2: to win this game and they didn't. All right, let's

532
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: go quick through the rest of them since it's a

533
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: you know, bottom of the slate. Minnesota Jacksonville. Minnesota wins

534
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: the game twelve to seven in Jacksonville as a seven

535
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,719
Speaker 2: point road favorite. Total goes under forty two and a half.

536
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: You had no passing touchdowns and five intercept Please tell

537
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: me more what happened here.

538
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: If you were a fan of bad AFC East quarterbacks

539
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: the last few years, boy, you were in for a

540
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 3: treat in this game. Sam Darnold three interceptions after Jacksonville

541
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 3: only had two all year, Mac Jones three turnovers. If

542
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 3: you bet Vikings Mice three half on the look ahead.

543
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: Last week, we got the cover if you wait and

544
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 3: chase the steam light. Jaguars in up around plus seven,

545
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 3: so they got the cover late depending on when you

546
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 3: grab this one. Minnesota way way better here four hundred

547
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 3: yards to under, one hundred and fifty for Jacksonville on

548
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 3: to five in the red zone. That's how you get

549
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 3: this score. But Minnesota, the much better team, didn't get

550
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: the cover anyway.

551
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, not at all. Very weird game going back and forth.

552
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 2: Of course, Mac Jones gets the cover as an underdog,

553
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 2: all right. Tennessee at the Chargers, Chargers win twenty seven

554
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: to seventeen as a nine point favorite. On the clothes

555
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 2: at home total goes over thirty nine and a half. Well,

556
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: we finally got an over in a Chargers game, but

557
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 2: it took a Will Levis tug down in the final

558
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty ten seconds. At the end of the game,

559
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: they're kind of ruining it all. But overall now Herbert

560
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: now seventeen and three to the under in his last

561
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 2: twenty games. The total is about forty five. Next week

562
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 2: and a really really good one Cincinnati at the Chargers

563
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 2: on Sunday Night football, which has some AFC complications there,

564
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 2: which should be fun in itself. But I think we

565
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: should talk about the Chargers just for a second. So

566
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 2: six and three Herbert is eleven touchdowns in one interception.

567
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 2: Chargers are plus nine in turnover margin this year. They

568
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 2: were even last year. Chargers defense allowing thirteen point one

569
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: points per game, and their first half defense just doing

570
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 2: an incredible job and allowing them to build the lead.

571
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: Here's the points allowed in the first half seven three

572
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: five seven zero seven seven zero seven to six. That's

573
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 2: going back to last year, seven or less than ten

574
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 2: straight first halfs for their defense, just allowing them to

575
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: do exactly what they want and control the clock. So

576
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 2: that's from the Chargers point of view. Tennessee one in

577
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: eight against the spread this year, their only cover against

578
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 2: Tyler Huntley. They are nine twenty two and two in

579
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: their last thirty three games for an ATS run. They've

580
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: just been terrible. Rudolph is pretty much the same as Levis.

581
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 2: I don't see much of a difference. Maybe I prefer

582
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 2: Levis in terms of the way he pushes it downfield

583
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: a little bit, you know, not as many turnovers, less sacks,

584
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 2: and the stat with Levis, which is just getting crazy

585
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: as they were plus three and a half second half

586
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: and lost by four. Is he is now two and

587
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 2: thirteen against a second half spread in his pro career

588
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 2: as a starter Owen thirteen when the game isn't played

589
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 2: on Monday Night football. So just absolutely crazy numbers altogether.

590
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 2: But that Cincinnati Chargers game big next week for AFC

591
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 2: complications you want to move on to.

592
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 3: We'll be back to that Chargers game in the hot

593
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 3: reach shortly as well.

594
00:29:55,360 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 2: Nice, got it all right? Tennessee Chicago, New England upsets

595
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: the Bears as a six and a half point dog

596
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: on the road. Total goes under thirty seven and a half.

597
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams now sacked thirty eight times this year, nine

598
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: times today tied for the biggest upset of the week.

599
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 2: So what you got here with New England Chicago?

600
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, New England had not top three sacks all season.

601
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 3: They get him nine times now. Look their offensive line

602
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 3: in Chicago is missing a lot of dudes today. Sacks

603
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 3: are quarterback stack. Caleb Williams cannot be nine sacks in

604
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 3: a game. I don't know how you've been leaving them

605
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 3: out here at that point, Like, I don't know what

606
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: Chicago is trying to accomplish one of fourteen on a

607
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: third down under two and a half yards of play.

608
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,479
Speaker 3: This is a team that three weeks ago was a

609
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 3: knockdown on a Hail Mary away from a four game

610
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: winning streak and five and two start the dream season

611
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: with Caleb Williams. Instead, they're on a three game losing streak.

612
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 3: They have not scored a touchdown in twenty one drives

613
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 3: at this point. And I can tell you as somebody

614
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: that in Chicagoland there's gonna be a lot of talk

615
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: about Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron, and I gotta tell you,

616
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if it's gonna be about whether they

617
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 3: will get fired. I think that they should not sleep

618
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 3: well tonight. I don't know if this could even happen

619
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 3: as early as tomorrow. Chicago is not over yet, but

620
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 3: they're four and five. They have all six division games

621
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 3: left against potential playoff teams, plus the Niners and the Seahawks.

622
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 3: It got dark real fast for Chicago. I don't know

623
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 3: how you protect Caleb Williams at this point. They certainly

624
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 3: don't know the answer. The Patriots were one in five

625
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 3: in the red zone or else. This is way uglier

626
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 3: than nineteen to three. It's bad.

627
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, their opponent win percentage going forward seventy percent with Lions, Vikings, Packers, Niners,

628
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 2: just absolutely brutal, all right, Jets at the Cardinals. Cardinals

629
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 2: win thirty one to six, which was a common score

630
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: in that afternoon window as two point home dogs total

631
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: under forty six. Again, I just it's unbelievable that the

632
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: Jets were favored again, So back to back games with

633
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 2: a thirty five percent win percentage or less versus teams

634
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: above five hundred favored both times. So that hasn't happened

635
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 2: in five years for any team on any level. So

636
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: the expectations here just again didn't really meet what we

637
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 2: saw in the field. Even after beating Houston, they played

638
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 2: great in that game. This was the opposite after extended

639
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 2: time to prepare to prepare here and their defense was

640
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 2: so bad in this game. Arizona had seven total drives

641
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: in this game, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, punt

642
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: game over. I mean, I just unbelievable. And I know

643
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 2: you tweeted this out, so I am going to give

644
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: you credit because this probably encapsulates it best. But a

645
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: series is a new set of downs. The Cardinals was

646
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: successful on twenty eight of twenty nine series. Today against

647
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: the Jets, I mean it just, truthfully, they didn't stop

648
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: anyone at any point. And I think it's worth talking

649
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 2: about how bad Rogers has been. So since week four,

650
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: the Jets are one and six straight up and against

651
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 2: the spread. Rogers is thirtieth of thirty six qbs in

652
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: success rate, thirty third in completion percentage over expected, and

653
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 2: twenty eighth in average depth of target. I mean, he

654
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 2: just even though he's putting up say seventeen to twenty

655
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: every game consistently, when he's not putting up say a

656
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 2: six or seven spot, it's just really bad and putting

657
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 2: a lot of pressure on the defense. Arizona, as we

658
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 2: talked about before, first in the NFC West at six

659
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: and four, but their losses to Buffalo, Detroit, Washington, and

660
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 2: Green Bay and Buffalo was by six, Detroit was by seven.

661
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 2: Cardinals haven't allowed haven't allowed a touchdown at home in

662
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 2: three straight games. They look really dangerous. And you know,

663
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 2: as long as Connor and Harrison are helping out Kyler

664
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: and he's not turning over the ball.

665
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 3: To dangerous team overall, Yeah, they look good. I think

666
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 3: to me, what's interesting going forward is is this about

667
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 3: the Jets more or is this about the Cardinals? And

668
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 3: I think that that score was so decisive, it's got

669
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 3: to be a little bit of both. But there's certainly

670
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 3: plenty about the Jets at this point.

671
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, seriously, all right, keep going here. Buffalo, Indy. Buffalo

672
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 2: beats the Colts thirty twenty in Indy as a four

673
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. Total goes over forty six

674
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,720
Speaker 2: and a half only stat I have here since twenty twenty.

675
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 2: Josh Allen is now twenty eight and four straight up

676
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 2: versus teams under five hundred, winning by thirteen points per game.

677
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 2: Just complete domination and showed it here.

678
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of sharps. I think we're fading the

679
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 3: Bills all week long, and it made sense got the

680
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 3: big KC game next week. But this ended up being

681
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 3: the only favorite in the early slate to cover. You

682
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 3: mentioned day of the underdogs, Buffalo is the only only

683
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 3: ones to cover, and then one by ten really by

684
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 3: seventeen there was a late garbage touchdown. They were very

685
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 3: comfortable here. Joe Flacco intercepted on the first two drives

686
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: of the game for Indy finishes with four turnovers, four sacks.

687
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 3: You know, I just thank god we're not letting Anthony

688
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 3: Richardson out there make mistakes. We got Joe Flacco to

689
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 3: drag the Colts of the playoffs. Oh wait, we're doing

690
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 3: this apparently, if he's gonna get four sacks and four turnovers,

691
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 3: I don't know what the point is. I don't know

692
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 3: why I'm not playing Richardson at this point.

693
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: Then, Yeah, he's looked so bad since being inserted back

694
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 2: into the lineup. Maybe there was something about being the

695
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 2: backup and I don't know, But I also just think

696
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 2: we probably got what the real Joe Flacco is at

697
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: this point in his career, which is a formidable one game,

698
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: two game guy. But you really should just give the

699
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 2: ball to Richardson and see what you got. So I

700
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 2: completely agree there all right, time for Monday night football.

701
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: It is the Dolphins at the Rams. Right now, the

702
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,080
Speaker 2: Rams are about two and a half point five. Ever,

703
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 2: it's total is at forty nine. The fun note entering

704
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 2: the weekend, which is telling you to maybe bet the

705
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 2: Rams would be All of Florida's teams have struggled so

706
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 2: far this weekend. So FBS, FCS, NFL all Florida teams

707
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: are oho and eleven. So far Florida, Florida State, Jacksonville

708
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 2: crossed the board, been terrible. Dolphins now up next. And

709
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 2: Tua himself has struggled over all in the night games.

710
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,439
Speaker 2: He's in three and nine ats in his career. He's

711
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 2: lost five consecutive starts ATS and night games, going oh

712
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: and five straight up in one and four as an underdog. U. So,

713
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 2: the two props I'm gonna look at before I toss

714
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 2: it to you is Stafford under thirty seven and a

715
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: half longest completion he's on under forty and five straight in.

716
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 2: Miami's pass defense is pretty good tenth in yards per attempt.

717
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: And I kind of like, I'm gonna pull in my

718
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: odds maker right now and say I like Jalen Ramsey

719
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: under four and a half tackle and assists five or

720
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 2: less in twenty two trade games. So we will see

721
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,439
Speaker 2: how that works out there. What do you like here?

722
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, no sider total for me on this one. It's

723
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 3: kind of tough read. I think it could be hopefully

724
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 3: will be a really fun game. We seem like we

725
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 3: finally are back to a pretty healthy version of both offenses.

726
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 3: The Rams are getting a couple offensive lineman back there,

727
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 3: They've getting healthy throughout the receivers there. The Dolphins finally

728
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 3: have Tua back, They're getting a little healthier. We might

729
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 3: get some fireworks. This is a pretty high total, but

730
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 3: I was kind of looking at the over anyway. Instead,

731
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 3: I'm gonna just go with a prop here, And it

732
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: is not a surprising prop. It's one we keep talking about.

733
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 3: Just give me, Devin h On, give me the receiving

734
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: overs with Tua. That's what we've been doing. We had

735
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: the Big Escalator a week ago. Here's his games with

736
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 3: Tua so far this season. Seven catches for seventy six yards,

737
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 3: seven for sixty nine, six for fifty and eight for

738
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: fifty eight. He's basically their slot receiver. He is playing.

739
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 3: He's above Jaalen Wattle really by receiving yards. And if

740
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 3: you play fantasy and you have Wattle, trust me, you

741
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 3: know that already. Now, look against Buffalo and we hit

742
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 3: the Big Escalator. They were allowing the number one most

743
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: receiving receptions and receiving yards to running backs. This is

744
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 3: not the same. The Rams have only allowed thirty catches

745
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 3: to running backs two hundred seventy seventy yards, so kind

746
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 3: of the opposite. They've been much worse against deep receivers.

747
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 3: But the Rams have surprised me a little bit. I

748
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 3: was dumping on them all early season. Their defense has

749
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 3: been a little bit unexpected, especially their defensive line. Miami's

750
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 3: offensive line has been not great. So I think we

751
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 3: get a lot of pressure, we get some easy dump

752
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 3: offs that feels like a chan plays. Just get the

753
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 3: ball out to our speedy running back, let him do

754
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 3: some stuff. So I'm going to give you some escalator

755
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 3: options here and keep an eye on the app if

756
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 3: you want to tail any of these. My favorite is

757
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: just the receiving yards because even if we don't get

758
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 3: enough catches, he can just bust like a thirty yarder

759
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 3: and gives over the yards anyway, So notes over forty

760
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 3: one and a half. I think it may have moved

761
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 3: up a yard or two since I added that a

762
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 3: couple of days ago, but just the basic receiving yards

763
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 3: over if it's moving and check your book, fifty plus

764
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 3: yards around plus one thirty four. It's a good line.

765
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 3: The receptions escalator. They killed that one off a little bit.

766
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: The line went from three and a half a week

767
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 3: ago to five and a half now. But I don't

768
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 3: mind seven plus receptions at plus one seventy five. And

769
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: then if you want to kind of combine some stuff,

770
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 3: in those two games, he's had at least six catches,

771
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 3: at least fifty yards receiving, and he's found the end

772
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 3: zone all three games. So if you put that together,

773
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 3: we love our same game. Parlays six catches, fifty yards

774
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 3: and an anytime touchdowns about three to one. He's four to

775
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 3: four with two out there, so I think that's a

776
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: good way to play this one. Have a little fun.

777
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 3: I definitely want overs in this game because I think

778
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: there's gonna be some fireworks here. You're smart betting on

779
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 3: the unders. Unders are the way they bet, but I

780
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: have more fun betting over. So here we are with

781
00:39:58,320 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 3: eight chant let's have a little fun with that.

782
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: I like that one. The other one I was looking

783
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 2: at depending I know we're we're assuming Tyreek Hill is

784
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 2: going to play here, but I was looking at Wattle

785
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 2: under nineteen and a half longest reception. He's actually twenty

786
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 2: one or under and seven straight. So I think a

787
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 2: lot depends on, you know, the health on the other

788
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: side and how many looks he gets. But I like that.

789
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling here. We've got the hot Red.

790
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: You've been teasing it on all show in different parts.

791
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: So you've got two picks. Where are you going? Hot

792
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 2: wrap bo seven day.

793
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:33,320
Speaker 1: On ice rights, ice cream, hooil trade.

794
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's start with one of the games we just

795
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 3: talked recently about. Sunday Night football. Give me the Bengals

796
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 3: plus two and a half in the Los Angeles to

797
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 3: face the Chargers. So look, we played the Bengals hot

798
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 3: read last week. We got that win against the Ravens

799
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 3: Thursday night. I can't quite get the money line win,

800
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 3: but got the cover obviously. There the Chargers. I thought

801
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 3: we're relatively even stats against the Titans. They did not

802
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 3: necessarily super impressed me with that game. Today, despite the

803
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 3: final score, I think Bengals were much more impressive. They

804
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 3: looked a lot better against the Ravens with their game.

805
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 3: Since Say's defense still not great, I don't really know

806
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 3: that the Chargers offense is a team that's built to

807
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 3: punish them. The Bengals are going to score points. So

808
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 3: the Bengals are good offense, and I think actually we

809
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 3: hear a lot about the Chargers defense. This defense is

810
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,439
Speaker 3: only faced two opponents so far this season that entered

811
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 3: this weekend top nineteen in offense by DVA. That was

812
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the Cardinals, and they lost both of

813
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 3: those games at home. The Chargers did. They've not faced

814
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 3: a top ten passing offense yet. The Bengals are top

815
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 3: five passing offense and probably get T Higgins back and

816
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 3: are playing an extra rest because they had that Thursday

817
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 3: night game. So I love the spot for Cincinnati. They're

818
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 3: four and six facing a six and three wild card opponent. Basically,

819
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 3: this is a huge chance for them to flip a

820
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 3: game and flip the tie break over a team that

821
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 3: they might be competing with for a playoff spot. Chargers

822
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:07,399
Speaker 3: up next. They're six and three. They got Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs.

823
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: They look good right now, but that is a really

824
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 3: easy path to six and seven has to start with

825
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 3: the Bengals win. Here, Zach Taylor sixty percent ats against

826
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 3: opponents better than five hundred, Joe Burrow after Week five

827
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 3: facing a non division opponents seventy five percent ats, and

828
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 3: then the one you know we love Joe Burrow's an

829
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 3: underdog two and a half point underdog or more. Burrow

830
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 3: is nineteen and five ats including the postseason for his

831
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 3: career seventy nine percent. He's won ten of the last

832
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 3: sixteen outright. So now I'll tell you this, I'm gonna

833
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 3: take just the Bengals plus two and a half. I

834
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: don't need to lose put my bet in the money

835
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 3: line this week. The Bengals have lost twice by a point,

836
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: and they've lost an overtime by three. I'm just gonna

837
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 3: take the plus two and a half just in case

838
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 3: we get another one of those close losses. Taylor's shown

839
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 3: he's gonna be one to go for that two point

840
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 3: conversion or get the win if they need to. I

841
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised here, So just give me the Bengals

842
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 3: plus two and a half. Should be a good Sunday

843
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 3: night game next week.

844
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the rest. I was going to talk

845
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 2: about t Higgins, which you brought up as well. One question, though,

846
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 2: do you think you should at the moment I see

847
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 2: two and a half, It was about one and a

848
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 2: half a little while ago up to two. Should you

849
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 2: wait on the three? Do you think it's going to

850
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 2: come back what's your thought there?

851
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I noticed that one book has one and a half,

852
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 3: another has two and a half. It's tricky on both

853
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 3: of these bets here. I normally am betting on hot

854
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 3: read and look ahead on favorites because typically money comes

855
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: on the favorite and the line goes further that way.

856
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 3: I'm on two underdogs today, and those are tricky because

857
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 3: same thing with the next one. Will it go up

858
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,439
Speaker 3: a little bit? And it's at a key number here

859
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,439
Speaker 3: to me, especially considering the Bengals have lost by one,

860
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 3: lost by one, again, lost or by three in overtime.

861
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 3: Two is not a key number. Three is the key number,

862
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: but the Bengals that's been close that way. I don't

863
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 3: mind waiting a little bit. I don't think you lose

864
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 3: so much by losing the two, and you gain more

865
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 3: if you get the three. But I feel pretty good

866
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 3: about the Bengals winning the game, so I don't mind

867
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,280
Speaker 3: grabbing the plus two and a half. It's also minus

868
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 3: one oh five, so a little bit lighter on the

869
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,439
Speaker 3: juice there as well, So I'll play it right now.

870
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: I understand if you want to wait on it, but

871
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Bengals take some

872
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 3: money here also and end up even like favored by

873
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 3: the time this kicks off. I'm not sure that they will.

874
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 3: It's always hard to know on these close lines. But

875
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: I just think since Sandy's the better team and the

876
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 3: Chargers haven't faced an offense quite like this.

877
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 2: Yeah cool, I agree. I like that Cincinnati line. All right,

878
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 2: we got one more? You were saying, dog, what do

879
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: you got one more?

880
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:36,959
Speaker 1: Dog?

881
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 3: It's raw Rah time ra ra Mike Tomlin and the

882
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:44,439
Speaker 3: Steelers plus three and a half home against the Ravens. Now. Look,

883
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 3: I said earlier, I'm kind of looking for ways to

884
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 3: fade Pittsburgh going forward. Baltimore just played the Bengals. They're

885
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 3: off of extra rest, so the Ravens are on extra arrest.

886
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 3: I want to fade the Steelers. Doesn't matter. I'm playing

887
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 3: this line in this matchup every single time a couple

888
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 3: matchup analysis things. The Ravens obviously number one offense right

889
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 3: now in the NFL, but Pittsburgh's defense, they know what

890
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 3: they're doing. They just played Washington. I'm not saying jayde

891
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 3: Daniel is Lamar Jackson, but is a similar style quarterback

892
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 3: and play two weeks in a row prepared against that

893
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 3: is helpful. The weakest unit in this game is not

894
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 3: a Pittsburgh unit. It is the Baltimore passing defense. And

895
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 3: though I don't trust Pittsburgh's offense, what's the way that

896
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:31,439
Speaker 3: you move the ball on Baltimore long explosive plays. The

897
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: one thing that I do trust Pittsburgh to do. I

898
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 3: think Russ can hit some of those moonballs, hit some explosives.

899
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 3: Here's a couple of crazy stats for you. Lamar Jackson

900
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:45,879
Speaker 3: in his career has four touchdowns against the Steelers in

901
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 3: his career six seasons against the division rival that's rushing

902
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 3: and passing combined. Four touchdowns is only win against Pittsburgh.

903
00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:00,360
Speaker 3: Came back in twenty nineteen. Lamar Jackson as a favorite

904
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 3: of between three and ten points fifteen twenty nine and

905
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: one against the spread thirty four percent. But this is

906
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 3: not about any of those things. This is about raw

907
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,879
Speaker 3: raw Mike Tomlin. Tomlin against teams better than five hundred

908
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 3: and fifty eight percent. John Harbaugh's division favorite forty two percent.

909
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 3: But the raw ra Tomlin underdog spy are gonna hear

910
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 3: about it. This is a great spot for it. They

911
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 3: just cash today in a good spot, this one is

912
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 3: even better. From week five forward forty eight twenty and

913
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 3: one against the spread for Mike Tomlin seventy one percent.

914
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 3: That goes up to eighty one percent if they're home,

915
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:36,840
Speaker 3: it goes up to eighty one percent if they're facing

916
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 3: a division opponent here, And what about if they come

917
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,879
Speaker 3: off of a loss Normally that's better. You like them

918
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 3: coming off a big loss. It's a motivational spot. But

919
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 3: if they cover in a raw ra spot and then

920
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: are anything worse than three point favorites the next week,

921
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 3: you're twenty seven and two against the spread seventy four percent.

922
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 3: So just all around, all the numbers line up, and

923
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 3: then a stat I promise you're gonna hear a lot

924
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 3: of places this week you always take the underdog and

925
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 3: Tomlin versus Harbaugh twenty three, six and three ats seventy

926
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 3: nine percent on not a small sample. We got a

927
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 3: lot of Tomlin Harbaugh games. That includes when there is

928
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 3: an underdog of three or more points, eighteen two and

929
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 3: three against the spread for the underdog ninety percent cover rate.

930
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 3: So I don't know why the Steelers are gonna cover here.

931
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,839
Speaker 3: I don't think these teams are even at all it

932
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 3: doesn't have to make sense. You just take the points

933
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 3: and Ravens Steelers Steelers plus three and a half again

934
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 3: similar to the last one. Do you wait, do you

935
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 3: see even get to the four? I would guess money

936
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 3: comes in on the Ravens here, but I don't want

937
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 3: to lose and get down to the three. The line

938
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 3: has been so important here at that three point underdog

939
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 3: stat and again plus three and a half. There's a

940
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 3: plus one hundred juice out there as well, So I'm

941
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 3: just gonna play it right now, Steelers plus three and

942
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 3: a half, close my eye and just let the trends

943
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 3: do the work for him.

944
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: Man, I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at

945
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: that all the time, like that's what the hell we

946
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 1: pay to do.

947
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, the three and a half's the right number, so

948
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 2: I agree with that. I mean, even coming down to

949
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 2: three at some spots, So grab the three and a

950
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: half while you can. These matchups are always close. The

951
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: Steelers voodoo will come out like it always does. All Right,

952
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 2: We've got a pair of AFC North underdogs for our

953
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 2: hot read. That is fun and good. Before we wrap up,

954
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: let's hear from Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders, and how

955
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 2: things looked in Las Vegas.

956
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: Thanks lot Evan. Always good to be back on the

957
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. We're recapping NFL Week ten and look

958
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 1: four of the last five weeks, and last week might

959
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,240
Speaker 1: have been the best man at worst the second best

960
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 1: for the public betting masses. Really good week for the

961
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: public betters over the last month plus or so. This

962
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: week the sportsbooks finally got some back and the main

963
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 1: reason was that a lot of under dogs covered the spread.

964
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 1: A lot of favorites did not cover. The Bengals covered

965
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 1: against the Ravens even though they lost. In the early

966
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 1: window on Sunday, favorites only covered in one. The favorite

967
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: only covered in one of those eight games, and that

968
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: was the Bills covering against the Colts. So a one

969
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 1: in seven ats record for the favorites in the early

970
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 1: window on Sunday, and say alluded to Thursday night. The

971
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 1: Ravens don't cover on Sunday night. The Detroit Lions spread

972
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:35,280
Speaker 1: covering machine of this decade, certainly with the past three seasons,

973
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 1: does not cover. Manages to rally comeback win twenty six

974
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 1: to twenty three, but does not cover as a four

975
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 1: point road favorite against the Houston Texans. So that was

976
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: all pretty good for the sports books. Multiple operators bet MGM,

977
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 1: super Book, South Point more locally here in Las Vegas,

978
00:49:56,520 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: among others, got to win this week, for sure, but

979
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 1: they were really close to this being an absolute wipeout

980
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 1: of the public betting masses. How close well the block

981
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 1: Denver Bronc was field goal was massive. If Denver had

982
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,879
Speaker 1: made that field goal, a whole bunch of not only

983
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:19,800
Speaker 1: moneyline parlays but teasers get blown up with the Chiefs

984
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 1: losing and not getting there on teasers, either losing outright

985
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 1: and not getting there on teasers at all. Instead, the

986
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 1: Chiefs win, which helps keep money line parlays alive, kept

987
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:30,720
Speaker 1: quite a lot of teasers alive.

988
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 3: And that was the thing.

989
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: While a lot of favorites did not cover a lot

990
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: of favorites, still one outright, And as Jeff Sherman at

991
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 1: the super Book pointed out, it was also the right favorites,

992
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: the popular favorites, the Chiefs, the Niners, the Bills, the Eagles,

993
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: the Lions. Now, the Bills and Eagles didn't really have

994
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: too much trouble, but the Chiefs, Niners, and Lions certainly did,

995
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,319
Speaker 1: and so too did Minnesota and they all get there,

996
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 1: So a lot of moneyline parlays still ended up ashing.

997
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:03,399
Speaker 1: And Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point here

998
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 1: here in Las Vegas, a very respected sportsbook, said there

999
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 1: was just a ton of money line play today and

1000
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,239
Speaker 1: on Sunday, I should say, and a lot of it

1001
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,959
Speaker 1: was on parlays, a ton of money line parlay play

1002
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: on the favorites, I should say. And so those all

1003
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 1: kept rolling, and a lot of them ended up cashing

1004
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 1: for anybody who had it finished with Detroit on Sunday night,

1005
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,359
Speaker 1: and a lot of it, a lot of those will

1006
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 1: roll anything that hasn't finished up yet will roll into

1007
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 1: the Monday night game. So kind of a give and take.

1008
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:40,400
Speaker 1: But generally speaking, the sportsbooks had a pretty good a

1009
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:43,720
Speaker 1: pretty good Sunday, I would say, certainly against the spread,

1010
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 1: but could.

1011
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:45,879
Speaker 3: Have been a whole lot better.

1012
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 1: The public betting masses on our side of the counter,

1013
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:50,279
Speaker 1: we obviously want them to do well, and they have

1014
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 1: over the last several weeks. But they did do alright

1015
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: with their money line parlays with all the right favorites

1016
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 1: seeming to find a way to win in the and

1017
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,439
Speaker 1: now looking ahead to Monday night, we were talking about

1018
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 1: how some of these are going to roll to Monday Night.

1019
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 1: They're probably going to roll to the Rams on Monday Night.

1020
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 1: Rams short home favorites looking better over these last couple

1021
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 1: of weeks as they've started to get healthy. I can

1022
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:16,839
Speaker 1: tell you that heading into Monday now, look a lot

1023
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 1: of money and tickets will come in on the Monday

1024
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 1: night game on Monday, That's when the bulk of the

1025
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 1: activity comes in. But Monday line parlays and so forth

1026
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 1: are already in motion, and probably a lot of them

1027
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 1: are going to run to the Rams, the short home

1028
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 1: favorite against the Dolphins heading into Monday on straight bets. However,

1029
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 1: at bet MGM, you were looking at more than eighty

1030
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 1: percent of point spread tickets and point spread money going

1031
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 1: to La the money line in a very short spread,

1032
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: much closer, pretty good two way action on the Monday

1033
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 1: line at bet MGM. But again they were looking at

1034
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: they were looking at the Rams pretty good, liking the

1035
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 1: Rams as a short home favorite to cover the number.

1036
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 1: So there we have it. Not a kind of a

1037
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: rebound week for the sports books. Most of them get,

1038
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: most of them get at least a small win. A

1039
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:06,439
Speaker 1: good win is how they termed it, but they wish,

1040
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 1: they wish they could have gotten a little bit more,

1041
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 1: and certainly would have if not for my Denver Bronc

1042
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 1: who's getting that field goal blocked, or perhaps Tampa Bay

1043
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,319
Speaker 1: finding a way to beat the forty nine ers. We'll

1044
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 1: talk to you more next week to recap NFL Week eleven.

1045
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for everyone for listening. This has

1046
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 2: been the Action Network Recap podcast. I am Evan Abrams,

1047
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 2: director of Research and Media here at the Action Network.

1048
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,399
Speaker 2: That was Brandon Anderson. We will be back next week,

1049
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 2: same time, same place, same network. Thanks for tuning in

1050
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 2: and enjoy your week.

1051
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1052
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help us.

1053
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 1: Available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler