Speaker 1: Also media.
Speaker 2: So I have pulled up poly Market and Kyle she
Speaker 2: We're gonna go through each of the trending predictions right
Speaker 2: now and then decide where we're gonna be putting our
Speaker 2: last year's profit from cool zone coin. We're gonna be
Speaker 2: transferring that on the blockchain to poly market, and I
Speaker 2: think we can come out of this year with a
Speaker 2: big profit.
Speaker 3: This is how we're relying on funding our operations.
Speaker 4: Jesus, that's going forward. Can you check partly market real quick? Say?
Speaker 4: If Morris he's still alive, Jesus, it's been three years
Speaker 4: in a row.
Speaker 2: So this is our twenty twenty six predictions episode. Like usual,
Speaker 2: I think we should start by reflecting us move our
Speaker 2: predictions from last year to see how right and wrong
Speaker 2: we were. The big one big prediction that we discussed
Speaker 2: the most as a team is when is Elon Musk
Speaker 2: gonna distance himself from Trump? Or when are they gonna
Speaker 2: break up? What do they have their you know, separation?
Speaker 2: And each in every one of the extended cool Zone
Speaker 2: media team members who works on it could happen here
Speaker 2: put in a date and the most accurate guess was
Speaker 2: from it could happen Here's main editor Adam, who said
Speaker 2: May which was really spot on. So congrats to Adam
Speaker 2: and to all of us stumble through our episodes and
Speaker 2: have to edit them.
Speaker 3: All cutting all the burps out.
Speaker 2: Yeah actually actually, uh, you know, maybe to really give
Speaker 2: credit back to us, maybe influenced your your wisdom.
Speaker 4: God, let me reflect on his gloria myself.
Speaker 3: Yes, we really made him wiser, and thus we're all
Speaker 3: wrong ourselves.
Speaker 4: And taking most psychological da It's a good you know.
Speaker 2: It means that we're smarter as a group entity, as
Speaker 2: a hive mind. We're all smarter than our own individual intelligence,
Speaker 2: which Adam has the most access to.
Speaker 3: Yes, just like ants.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but yeah, no, Adam did pretty good on that
Speaker 2: May thirtieth guess, so there you go. Sophie also close
Speaker 2: at May sixth, and then Molly congered June tenth, also
Speaker 2: kind of in that zone. But Adam definitely hit it
Speaker 2: spot on. We had a few other predictions. Some of
Speaker 2: them were predictions. Some of them, I guess we're kind
Speaker 2: of more hopes and dreams, which sadly did not come
Speaker 2: to pass. The meon mar Junta was predicted by me
Speaker 2: and James to Junta was predicted by me and James
Speaker 2: to Making Out twenty twenty five. They've kind of stuck
Speaker 2: on to power.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if they've rallied pretty substantially Italy.
Speaker 2: It's unfortunate Yaho's still as Prime Minister. I did predict
Speaker 2: that Assad would become a Russia Today host. I think
Speaker 2: it's a good prediction, but did not happen.
Speaker 3: That could still happen.
Speaker 2: It still happen in the future.
Speaker 4: I'm waiting for them to hire him for a fucking podcast.
Speaker 3: I don't think I predicted this, but I'm not surprised.
Speaker 3: He's just playing video games.
Speaker 2: No, he's just pulled up in a hotel playing video games.
Speaker 4: Now. Yeah.
Speaker 2: During There's Our Death segment, I laid out a new
Speaker 2: theory of death based on Spotify Rapped, which the previous
Speaker 2: two years had some important deaths associated with Spotify rap Day.
Speaker 2: No big Spotify Rapped deaths this year, unfortunately, though. I
Speaker 2: did make a death prediction last episode which did not
Speaker 2: fully become true, but slightly became true right after we
Speaker 2: record that episode. Last year, before the episode even aired,
Speaker 2: I predicted that someone would try to assassinate Nick Fuent
Speaker 2: as well. Nick was live streaming, perhaps a deranged fanboy.
Speaker 2: Days later, Just days later, someone showed up outside of
Speaker 2: Nick's house as he was live streaming with a weapon,
Speaker 2: allegedly trying to kill him. This person died later that night,
Speaker 2: and in like exchange with police, it became this whole thing.
Speaker 2: But that happened just a few days after I made
Speaker 2: that prediction, so technically didn't even happen in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Happened still in twenty twenty four before we aired that
Speaker 2: last episode, But it was close, was close to some
Speaker 2: kind of zeitgeist on that. It's unclear that guy was
Speaker 2: a fanboy. We really don't know much about him. What's
Speaker 2: a few other predictions that have like kind of kind
Speaker 2: of come true, But like it's more in terms of
Speaker 2: like which degree I guess.
Speaker 3: I think my weird terrorism prediction has been pretty Yeah,
Speaker 3: area own the money. Yeah, that's that's continued to be
Speaker 3: a driver of the discourse.
Speaker 2: We'll return to that in a sec. Sophie talked about,
Speaker 2: you know, Trump moving some like White House operations to
Speaker 2: mar A Lago, which has partially happened. There's been a
Speaker 2: lot of like a like a holiday events done at
Speaker 2: mar A Lago. Sometimes he's working out.
Speaker 5: Of there very odd things.
Speaker 2: Yeah, But on the other hand, he's also just mar
Speaker 2: a lago of fying the White House itself, which with
Speaker 2: like the ballroom, So it's kind of going in both directions.
Speaker 2: Mia did did put a very firm prediction on like
Speaker 2: an economic collapse in twenty twenty five, like in the
Speaker 2: United States. Again, it's it's it's it's like a slow
Speaker 2: in terms of like one of the key ideas for
Speaker 2: our show is like crumbles versus collapse. It certainly continued
Speaker 2: to crumble, but I think the actual full collapse point
Speaker 2: is still upcoming.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, we'll get into this more later. I will
Speaker 6: say it is kind of baffling to have my prediction
Speaker 6: completely derailed literally just solely by AI data center spending.
Speaker 2: Yes, which I did not predict.
Speaker 6: That any entire American growth rate would be and I
Speaker 6: did set growth.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I didn't get that. No, the actual like like
Speaker 2: job market and economy has become so separate from like
Speaker 2: corporate spending and stock market stuff. And like Robert did,
Speaker 2: actually I think hit this little bit on the head.
Speaker 2: He talked about how the economy will basically remain identical
Speaker 2: to Biden's economy in terms of inflation, but the stock
Speaker 2: market will continue to go up and housing will keep
Speaker 2: getting more expensive, and the left will start to be
Speaker 2: able to hit conservatives on inflation. And yeah, I think
Speaker 2: that is pretty much what happened. E Condomy's in a
Speaker 2: relatively similar place as it was last year. But you know,
Speaker 2: inflation is still ticking. There's some like artificial attempts to
Speaker 2: bring it down by Trump, but it's not really working
Speaker 2: in terms of prices.
Speaker 3: No, the only thing cropping it up in a numbers
Speaker 3: term is fucking Nvidia. Well, in Vidia less so now,
Speaker 3: but just irrational exuberance over AI in general. Yeah, but
Speaker 3: people are complaining about all the same things they were
Speaker 3: under Biden, just more so.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I guess I have three other points here.
Speaker 2: I talked about a blue governor deployed national Guard troops
Speaker 2: against Trump federal troops. Instead you got Trump deployed national
Speaker 2: Guard troops against individual cities with like police kind of
Speaker 2: caught in between. We still have yet to see the
Speaker 2: the cool and based moment where like a blue governor
Speaker 2: deploys national Guard against against dhlven.
Speaker 4: Youse deployed his Twitter account today.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: No, Still, Sophie talked about there'd be still no clear
Speaker 2: left wing Joe Rogan, but so many have tried, a
Speaker 2: lot of people try.
Speaker 3: I still feel like I could be it.
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to be a lot more on camera,
Speaker 2: I think. Yeahah, well, they'll have to have a lot
Speaker 2: a lot more on camera stuff for that.
Speaker 4: More camera less hair, larger gut can't be explained.
Speaker 3: Steroids, different drugs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Adam Freeland is certainly positioning in that direction. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I agree here. I agree here.
Speaker 5: Also, I predicted that something would happen to the Paul Brothers,
Speaker 5: and unfortunately the only thing that happened is that their
Speaker 5: HBO show did not get renewed.
Speaker 4: When was that boxed?
Speaker 1: Bad?
Speaker 3: That was year prior and it wasn't good.
Speaker 5: No, they had a TV show called Paul American.
Speaker 2: Yeah, are you serious? I didn't even hear about this.
Speaker 5: It was on HBO, but it got canceled.
Speaker 2: I guess I've just had other stuff going on.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm kind of glad that I've lived a life
Speaker 4: where I didn't know that. I have no shame about that.
Speaker 2: Finally, both myself and like a few of us kind
Speaker 2: of talked about is that there would be this movement
Speaker 2: away from big mobilizations. Some big mobilizations happened in short
Speaker 2: periods of time, right, like especially good point like la
Speaker 2: I think it's probably the most significant, but in terms
Speaker 2: of like like actual like countrywide mass mobilizations, right, there's
Speaker 2: a movement away from this and moving towards lone wolf attacks,
Speaker 2: which did happen, and specifically I predicted there would be
Speaker 2: like a very a very sloppy Luigi copycat in the
Speaker 2: next four months, And oh boy, did this happen multiple
Speaker 2: in reoccurring times. And this kind of played into this
Speaker 2: larger model I was creating, which kind of starts around
Speaker 2: the assassination of shinzo Abe, creating this escalating series of
Speaker 2: assassinations happening faster and faster, because like after shinzo Abe,
Speaker 2: there was you know, two years later, Thomas Crooks trying
Speaker 2: to assassinate Onald Trump and bout the Pennsylvania six months later,
Speaker 2: the United Healthcare CEO. Three months after that, someone tried
Speaker 2: to burn down the home of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
Speaker 2: in the middle of the night. One and a half
Speaker 2: months after that, there was the assassination of two Israeli
Speaker 2: embassy staffers in Washington, d c Two weeks after that,
Speaker 2: a Christian missionary named Vance Belter killed in Minnesota House
Speaker 2: speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and shot Senator John Hoffman.
Speaker 2: Next month was the Prairie Land assault on an ice
Speaker 2: facility in July, the exact details of which are still
Speaker 2: getting figured out in court. But after this things kind
Speaker 2: of tapered down for a bit until September with the
Speaker 2: Charlie Kirk assassination and the attack on the ice facility
Speaker 2: in Texas which kills two immigrant detainees. So yeah, in
Speaker 2: terms of like you know, lone wolf style, pre planned
Speaker 2: assassination style attacks, sloppy copycats, write people writing messages on
Speaker 2: bullet casings, emulating the United Healthcare CEO assassination, this was
Speaker 2: like a super super dominant part of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: It's the same pattern. I talked about this at the
Speaker 3: end of my episode on and Manchione after like that
Speaker 3: came out right that like there's copycats after every shooting.
Speaker 3: This is basically following the same kind of thing we
Speaker 3: saw in twenty nineteen with the eight Chan shootings right
Speaker 3: where you like this. This has been going on for
Speaker 3: much longer than that, but it's a very predictable once
Speaker 3: you start to expect it. It's a very predictable thing,
Speaker 3: which is, someone carries out a shooting that actually manages
Speaker 3: to break through our levels of apathy about violence in
Speaker 3: this society and keeps everyone's attention, and then throughout the
Speaker 3: year a bunch of different people try iterations based on
Speaker 3: that because it's the only way to get attention, and
Speaker 3: that's what all these people are craving, right, That's the
Speaker 3: only real currency that still has value.
Speaker 6: I will say, I think it says something positive about
Speaker 6: the turnoway for mass mobilizations that the lone Wolf stuff
Speaker 6: wasn't the only stuff that happened. There was also the
Speaker 6: turn towards the thing we talked about in our Q
Speaker 6: and a episode about the Ice wrapped response stuff, which is,
Speaker 6: you know, there were a few big mobilizations, but then
Speaker 6: ICE was forced to change their tactics by the fact
Speaker 6: that giant mobilizations by ICE, we're going badly for them.
Speaker 6: And this did create a whole bunch of sort of
Speaker 6: decentralized rapid response networks and a whole bunch of actions
Speaker 6: that were sort of based on this very very decentralized
Speaker 6: very we show up and we do this thing at
Speaker 6: this place, what's happening. It has stopped some of the
Speaker 6: things that is happening. It has not stopped all of
Speaker 6: the horrors that have been happening. But I think it
Speaker 6: is a positive trend in terms of the way that
Speaker 6: ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics to do
Speaker 6: things that are harder and get less people at a time.
Speaker 6: So I think that's worth as a positive thing worth
Speaker 6: sharing of. How yeah, yeah, that the tactical innovations that
Speaker 6: activists have been deploying have been forcing ICE to do
Speaker 6: less devastating raids.
Speaker 4: We saw various attempts at mass mobilization, most successful with
Speaker 4: the No Kings marches, which were vast, but we also
Speaker 4: saw those fifty to fifty one things which kind of
Speaker 4: were not as successful in turning out a lot of
Speaker 4: umbers of people. But like me, it said, like in Ventura, right,
Speaker 4: Like we saw huge numbers of people show up when
Speaker 4: ICE tried to rate a couple of agricultural facility. He's
Speaker 4: up there, and yeah, well like I was up in La.
Speaker 4: We've spoken about that extensively. But like Garrison said, that
Speaker 4: was probably the biggest mobilization against ICE at one time.
Speaker 4: In one place that we saw.
Speaker 2: It's a probably do ad break and then move into
Speaker 2: predictions for this upcoming year twenty twenty six. Yep, the
Speaker 2: stock market is still trying to keep going, although in
Speaker 2: some parts is like, if not going down, flatlining like
Speaker 2: a bitcoined did not increase this past year. There's been
Speaker 2: a few popular like rising stocks like Netflix, which are
Speaker 2: pretty much at the same spot they were at the
Speaker 2: start of twenty twenty five, still going up and down.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Games Workshop is up forty eight percent.
Speaker 2: Baby ye, war Hammer, the assassin Oran kingmaker, it's great.
Speaker 3: Sixty seven most valuable company in the entire UK, larger
Speaker 3: than there a whole fishing industry. Baby really Yeah, that's
Speaker 3: Warhammer is load bearing to the British economy. It's the
Speaker 3: only thing Noddingham really has left.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so they got rid of the sheriff. It already
Speaker 4: went downhill for them. Hey that in Robinhood. Tourism is yeah,
Speaker 4: anything you can do in Notingham. Now, Okay, I have
Speaker 4: I have a big one about this. And it's not
Speaker 4: that the tech bubble is going to collapse. I do
Speaker 4: think the tech bubble is going to pop this year.
Speaker 3: At about this year, but within the next twelve months.
Speaker 3: I think you're saying, because we've got like three weeks
Speaker 3: left in.
Speaker 2: This year, Well, you know, in twenty twenty six. Yeah,
Speaker 2: these are these are predictions for twenty twenty six. Yeah,
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six, the tech bubble is going to pop. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's not the prediction.
Speaker 6: The prediction is that, in an attempt to recoup the
Speaker 6: value from all of the completely useless data centers that
Speaker 6: they will have built that can only run LMS and
Speaker 6: can do nothing else, someone is going to invent a
Speaker 6: cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models.
Speaker 6: And this is going to be one of the big
Speaker 6: attempts to recoup the hideous, hideous amounts of capital they've
Speaker 6: been dumped into all these data centers. Is that they're
Speaker 6: going to have someone's going to find a way to
Speaker 6: make a kind of token that can only be generated
Speaker 6: by large language models, and they're gonna they're gonna try it.
Speaker 6: Is it gonna work? I don't think so, But they
Speaker 6: are going to try it. It's going to be a
Speaker 6: big thing. They're gonna push it. It's gonna suck.
Speaker 3: There's gonna be a bunch of desperate attempts to like
Speaker 3: once the money starts falling out and like, which is
Speaker 3: not to say that I think that AI is going
Speaker 3: to even the AI that annoys me is going to
Speaker 3: go away, But a lot of the irrational exuberance is
Speaker 3: going to end, and a lot of the startups that
Speaker 3: are just burning money are going to fail or get acquired,
Speaker 3: and you're going to see tremendous desperation for people to
Speaker 3: be like, this is the next thing, This is the
Speaker 3: next thing. Throw a bunch of money into this, Like, Yeah,
Speaker 3: that's that's gonna be annoying.
Speaker 2: No, I mean, I feel like people have been talking
Speaker 2: about the a bubble popping for a while. I have
Speaker 2: been hearing things from people who think and track this
Speaker 2: more than I do that if it is going to happen,
Speaker 2: there's indicators that it's more likely to happen in twenty
Speaker 2: six than it was in twenty five. I'm not going
Speaker 2: to put money on that on the Calshi betting markets,
Speaker 2: but god, it does seem to be more of a possibility.
Speaker 2: And you can see this the way people are handling
Speaker 2: Navidia stock right now and being advised not to buy
Speaker 2: more stock but still hold what you have.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just where Nvidio stock has moved over the
Speaker 3: last month or so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so if you look at what's happening with Navidio,
Speaker 2: we might have reached the peak and oh yeah, and
Speaker 2: it might be so jover for some of these guys.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the big open question is how bad
Speaker 3: it's going to be. There's going to be at least
Speaker 3: one of these big AI companies open aire, anthropic, or
Speaker 3: somebody that either goes bust entirely or has to get acquired.
Speaker 3: But again, if you're looking at this rationally and wish casting,
Speaker 3: both Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all perfectly capable of
Speaker 3: sustaining their rates of burn.
Speaker 2: Microsoft is still going up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Facebook is as well. And I think what you're
Speaker 3: likelier to see is contraction and consolidation, which is not
Speaker 3: to say that it's not going to be disastrous for
Speaker 3: some group. I think there's a good chance that we
Speaker 3: do see some banks fail because there's there's some bad
Speaker 3: investments out there.
Speaker 6: Yeah, they have been doing collateralized loan obligations. Yeah, where
Speaker 6: the underlying asset is compute time.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: This is more deranged than two thousand and eight.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I cannot emphasize this enough. This is the most deranged
Speaker 6: thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis, Like I
Speaker 6: cannot explain just good God, So.
Speaker 3: No, I mean the upside that we have over two
Speaker 3: thousand and eight is that the thing that all of
Speaker 3: these bad bets are on isn't people's houses, right, Yes, yeah,
Speaker 3: And so that does there is a potential that some
Speaker 3: good comes out of it in terms of like universities
Speaker 3: getting access to a lot more compute that they can
Speaker 3: actually use valuable things.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and people are already suffering under recession conditions. If
Speaker 2: you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing
Speaker 2: with the followed effects of this. Just the stock market
Speaker 2: itself has been insulated from the rest of the economy
Speaker 2: which is in a state of recession. And also it
Speaker 2: can get worse, which so a lot of people who
Speaker 2: aren't like super wealthy are like pro this bubble popping
Speaker 2: and pro this because then if other people, people in
Speaker 2: power finally realize how bad it is, they're hopeful that
Speaker 2: then something might be done to like fix some of
Speaker 2: the material conditions, which I can understand people's like, like
Speaker 2: you know point of view there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am not as worried about this being as
Speaker 3: bad for the average person as two thousand and eight was.
Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be as satisfying as
Speaker 3: people are hoping it was. It's not going to wipe
Speaker 3: out or put an end to the annoyance of AI
Speaker 3: in our lives, although it should make it easier to
Speaker 3: rationalize some of the shit people have been saying, like
Speaker 3: it should make the craziest of the AI boosters being
Speaker 3: like this is to replace everything. The whole economy will
Speaker 3: be in two years, no one will have a job.
Speaker 3: That's going to be a lot harder for anybody who's
Speaker 3: not not seem like a crazy person while advocating. But
Speaker 3: the Internet's gonna stay annoying, like unfortunate.
Speaker 4: I think it's fucked for a little while.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I think my girly pop economy prediction is that we're
Speaker 5: going to continue to see influencer shopping. What I mean
Speaker 5: by that is like influencers have been pushing products like
Speaker 5: no other and marketing budgets have been going to influencer
Speaker 5: marketing at a rapid pace. And I think we're gonna
Speaker 5: see the implementation of AI into that more. And I
Speaker 5: think that that is primarily going to be one of
Speaker 5: the ways, like we might see less or we'll still
Speaker 5: see as much, but targeted ads, and we're going to
Speaker 5: see an addition to that, we'll also see like targeted
Speaker 5: influencer marketing for products, and like it's already pretty gnarly
Speaker 5: on like TikTok and Instagram, but I think we're only
Speaker 5: going to see more of that, and it's just gonna,
Speaker 5: you know, going to be peak capital them care.
Speaker 2: Something that could be really fun is that if it pops,
Speaker 2: it's going to line up almost perfectly with two thousand
Speaker 2: and eight nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is
Speaker 2: already starting to happen in the same time as a
Speaker 2: whole economic recession. So we'll have the recessions line up
Speaker 2: in time with their nostalgia cycle, and then you know,
Speaker 2: it's only a matter of months before you have you know,
Speaker 2: like twenty tens like hipster stuff coming coming back in
Speaker 2: great So you know, it's right there, We're so close.
Speaker 2: We're already at that like like you know, two thousand
Speaker 2: and eight level of two thousands of nostalgia. But if
Speaker 2: it lines up with the recession, then that could that
Speaker 2: could be really exciting.
Speaker 3: Now I'm also kind of curious as to whether or
Speaker 3: not we're going to start seeing you know, a lot
Speaker 3: of the earliest adopters of AI on a regular basis.
Speaker 3: We're very young people using it to cheat at school, yes,
Speaker 3: and just kind of trawling different teachers, subreddits and online communities.
Speaker 3: I'm seeing teachers talk about like younger kids now they're
Speaker 3: being a backlash among very young people against the use
Speaker 3: of AI and the way it makes people talk. This
Speaker 3: is kind of coming alongside as you're starting to see
Speaker 3: a recovery in levels of literacy as schools depart from
Speaker 3: the bad way of teaching kids to read that fuck
Speaker 3: everyone up. I don't have any kind of longitudinal statistical
Speaker 3: data on this. This is all very much anecdotal, so
Speaker 3: I'm still waiting to see is this a broader trend
Speaker 3: or did I just come across some people saying this
Speaker 3: is a thing that they're seeing in their area. But
Speaker 3: I'm kind of interested. And there's a degree to which
Speaker 3: I think some sort of backlash against AI is inevitable
Speaker 3: just because of how everyone running society is trying to
Speaker 3: push people to replace everything with it like that just
Speaker 3: inevitably is going to irritate the kids because the adults
Speaker 3: are all doing it right, We'll see.
Speaker 4: I think people are increasingly better at spotting AI, like
Speaker 4: intuitively and very quickly. It's something I've seen, like not
Speaker 4: in high school, but like teaching at a university level.
Speaker 4: People just being like, this is an IR response, and
Speaker 4: it's fucking cringe like because the AI always writes in
Speaker 4: a particularly cringe way, right, that is very obvious, and
Speaker 4: I've seen that. But I genuinely hope more people stop
Speaker 4: using AI because it is making education a pretty fucking
Speaker 4: miserable place to be right now, which is Tomama, because
Speaker 4: I like teaching.
Speaker 2: Let's go on another at break and then return for
Speaker 2: some mid term predictions. Hey, is it everyone excited? It's
Speaker 2: another election?
Speaker 4: You're already people are saying the most important one of
Speaker 4: our lives, Garrison.
Speaker 2: I think, so just what I was starting to miss it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm voting Kamala for every single camera.
Speaker 2: Single state level position. Yeah, sure, she will be the comptroller.
Speaker 5: You're killing me.
Speaker 2: Who do we think is gonna run?
Speaker 5: Gavin Newsome?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Midterms? Yeah, Unfortunately, Sophie, we have another reporter like talking
Speaker 4: about twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't have to do that until next year's
Speaker 3: I skipped.
Speaker 5: I've skipped the midterms, and I was already going to
Speaker 5: the next level of hell, no, no, no, Who's going
Speaker 5: to be governor of California?
Speaker 4: James God knows. The Dems have not really been putting
Speaker 4: their strongest foot forward. Katie Porter had these like really
Speaker 4: pretty nasty videos come out of the way she was
Speaker 4: just talking to people who work for her. I don't
Speaker 4: think that that is a good leadership great, and I
Speaker 4: don't think that that it's a person we should choose.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I'm so resigned to being it being
Speaker 4: someone's shit, you know that, Like I honestly try not
Speaker 4: to put too much of my time and effort into it.
Speaker 4: But yeah, I know, maybe I'll be fucking Katy Perry.
Speaker 4: Maybe Trudeau will pass on his electoral magic. She's got
Speaker 4: some good songs. She could use them with actually, with
Speaker 4: the intellectual property licensing, which Trump doesn't do, she could
Speaker 4: get that shock. Maybe the shock could be vice governor.
Speaker 4: You know, that's the potential there. We have worried about
Speaker 4: the shock.
Speaker 2: So obviously the Democrats are protected to do well in
Speaker 2: this in this midterm election based on like like like
Speaker 2: anti Trump sentiment and like the regular swing away from
Speaker 2: the like whoever is in the executive branch in mid terms,
Speaker 2: And yeah, I think the Democrats will do well, especially
Speaker 2: if you look at the last like a month or
Speaker 2: so of election results. I think it's possible they take
Speaker 2: both chambers. I think they will absolutely take one. I'm
Speaker 2: going split, it's possible they take both chambers. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going
Speaker 2: to be a blue tsunami blue nay. I think it
Speaker 2: may be a blue wave. I think I think a
Speaker 2: wave or a small wave is likely. I do not
Speaker 2: think it's going to be a complete blowout. But there's
Speaker 2: been like especially in the Tennessee's special election, a thirteen
Speaker 2: point shift towards Democrats. We've seen other double digit shifts
Speaker 2: across the country in the in the past in the
Speaker 2: past month. I don't know how much they'll be able
Speaker 2: to continue that sort of sentiment in you know, nine
Speaker 2: months time, ten months, eleven months time leading into November.
Speaker 2: So I think some of that enthusiasm will maybe taper
Speaker 2: off a little bit as Trump becomes kind of like
Speaker 2: a lame duck presidency.
Speaker 6: But I still think they'll do like Okay. In terms
Speaker 6: of like the Democrats, I very much disapear. I think
Speaker 6: this is going to be like a generic DE plus fourteen.
Speaker 6: This is going to be a fucking massacre. What signs
Speaker 6: are pointing towards that? I mean, they just won the
Speaker 6: mayorship of Miami.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Well so you're saying it's going to be
Speaker 2: good for the Democrats de plus fourteen.
Speaker 6: Yeah, like Democrats plus fourteen. Like I'm talking like an
Speaker 6: as a tsunami. Okay, got My prediction is that all
Speaker 6: of the polling people are fucking cowards. What's happening right
Speaker 6: now at the polling is that they are using the
Speaker 6: twenty twenty four electorate. This is not the twenty twenty
Speaker 6: four electorate. They have not figured this out yet. They
Speaker 6: are still underestimating the exact scale of which everyone fucking
Speaker 6: hates them, Like.
Speaker 3: I'ld be surprised if both houses flip. But yeah, here's
Speaker 3: the thing.
Speaker 6: The Cuban parts of Miami, Yeah went left by like
Speaker 6: fifteen points touch something we talked about in the show.
Speaker 6: They are going through and systematically pissing off every single
Speaker 6: part of their base, right, Like one of the things
Speaker 6: one of the stories I've been tracking is about the
Speaker 6: ways in which they've been spystematically pissing off a whole
Speaker 6: bunch of farmers who are a very very consistent right
Speaker 6: wing voting base, and they're pissing them off a trade
Speaker 6: war bullshit because China's not buying swoydeans, right. This is
Speaker 6: how they're losing elections in Western Iowa. I think the
Speaker 6: other part of this too is and this is how
Speaker 6: I think the momentum is going to be sustained, is
Speaker 6: that things haven't even gotten as bad as they're going
Speaker 6: to get yet. The actual standard of living in this
Speaker 6: country right now, it is going to get so much
Speaker 6: worse as as all of the inflation stuff sort of
Speaker 6: racks up, et cetera, et cetera. Like, the country is
Speaker 6: going to be worse. Everyone's going to be more pissed off.
Speaker 6: Trump is going to have bombed like four more countries.
Speaker 6: We're gonna have like cent troops into Mexico or some shit.
Speaker 6: He's going to be so unpopular it's going to be
Speaker 6: like it's gonna be the fucking flood out there that's possible.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the incompacy advantage becomes less and less
Speaker 4: relevant the worse the economy gets and like that was
Speaker 4: something Biden got hit with, right, that Trump is is
Speaker 4: going to have to wear especially to get further and
Speaker 4: further into his term. Right, it's a Trump economy.
Speaker 2: I guess this just requires that the current momentum Democrats
Speaker 2: have to be maintained for a while, which is something
Speaker 2: that historically Democrats haven't been great at.
Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, they have shift at it.
Speaker 2: So this will require effort for you know, people like
Speaker 2: organizing with the Democrats and social media messaging, like actual
Speaker 2: in person like like electoral organizing to really keep this
Speaker 2: momentum pressure going for the next eleven months, which which
Speaker 2: is you know, they've they've done a good job at
Speaker 2: this the past like six months, but can they like
Speaker 2: maintain this to the mid terms. That's the only point
Speaker 2: where I start to hesitate in terms of like the
Speaker 2: scale of like a blue wave. But I think it's
Speaker 2: it's certainly possible that that they end up doing it
Speaker 2: quite well, but it's going to be reliant on like
Speaker 2: maintaining this this pressure.
Speaker 3: No, there's still some structural difficulties that make flipping Congress
Speaker 3: entirely very.
Speaker 2: Difficult, especially with the redistricting stuff happening. Yeah, yeah, so
Speaker 2: like could they take the Senate quite easily. Yeah, the
Speaker 2: House still up in the air. For me, I think
Speaker 2: lean the Democrat at this point, certainly leaning Democrat, but
Speaker 2: still not confident.
Speaker 3: That'd be great. I just I don't want to get irrationally,
Speaker 3: you know, ahead of our skeazier.
Speaker 6: I have watched very very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win
Speaker 6: elections and districts that were R plus twenty two.
Speaker 2: Anything can happen at this point.
Speaker 4: Like, yeah, no, Yeah, it's not coming from a national strategy.
Speaker 4: It's coming from like local candidates doing well on local
Speaker 4: issues and people fucking hating Trump. Yeah, it is not
Speaker 4: the DNC who is putting Higgins or Mam Damie in office. Well, yeah,
Speaker 4: that is, uh, I guess a good thing because the
Speaker 4: DNT fucking sucks. It has always fucking sucked, and it
Speaker 4: has really reinforced how much it sucks in the last
Speaker 4: eight years.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And being able to hit Trump and Republicans on the
Speaker 2: economy with tariffs, this, like all the garky stuff, has
Speaker 2: proven to be pretty successful so far, and I think
Speaker 2: being able to continue that messaging as the economy trends
Speaker 2: in its current direction. Being able to continue that messaging
Speaker 2: I think will help the Democrats. Interestingly, a Platner in
Speaker 2: Maine still seems to be the front runner for that race,
Speaker 2: so I think there's a decent chance we get our
Speaker 2: first total cob in the Senate.
Speaker 4: Well, he didn't absolutely dog shit cover up. I'm sorry
Speaker 4: if you are listening and you did that yet to you,
Speaker 4: but it's probably not your best work. Like he's got
Speaker 4: a blob now.
Speaker 2: That stuff just did not prove to be super impactful
Speaker 2: to the actual voters in Maine, it seems, and the
Speaker 2: actual like focus on his talking points have maintained his lead.
Speaker 2: So I think that's something that Democrats can also look
Speaker 2: look to. Yeah, in terms of like how much of
Speaker 2: these like you know, like tertiary like personal attacks or
Speaker 2: like you know, genuine yeah, genuinely valid valid complaints or
Speaker 2: issues are are not very dominant based on how much
Speaker 2: emphsis is actually getting put on. This is sort of
Speaker 2: like affordability messaging.
Speaker 5: To wrap up this Predictions episode, should we do a
Speaker 5: quick death pick?
Speaker 2: No one's gonna die.
Speaker 3: I thought you're gonna ask it. Do you think we're
Speaker 3: going to invade Venezuela?
Speaker 2: No? See, this is what I'm interested in I'm more
Speaker 2: interested in are we going to start any wars? Yes?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 2: And is his cabinet going to stay the same?
Speaker 3: Kindness already have started.
Speaker 2: To answer your first question, yes, yeh.
Speaker 5: Is the cabit gonna stay the same?
Speaker 2: I'm surprised it's weird, right Trump first term there was
Speaker 2: a lot of cabinet turnover in the first year. Sure, Scaramouchi,
Speaker 2: this is this is not happening this year. This year
Speaker 2: they stayed pretty tight knit, despite a lot of terminils
Speaker 2: or like you know, issues around like Cash Battel, Pam Bondi,
Speaker 2: RFK Junior, Pete Haig Seth with the double tap war crime.
Speaker 4: Strikes No as well.
Speaker 2: They're pretty tight knit, it seems, so. I don't know
Speaker 2: if it's gonna be cabinet turnover. I think Cash Battel
Speaker 2: will be out next year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Cash might have Yeah, might be on
Speaker 3: the edge of this.
Speaker 4: Lost the podcast price he just found the ja Sics
Speaker 4: pipe Bomber.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna happen. I think the cabinet's
Speaker 2: gonna stay the same, which I predicted against last year.
Speaker 2: But I think based on how they've weathered certain controversies,
Speaker 2: I do not know if Trump cares enough to do
Speaker 2: cabinet turnover.
Speaker 4: Yeah who I was talking to him about these things.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well see, I don't there's no one that I
Speaker 3: think is an obvious choice. I think the likeliest turnover
Speaker 3: is Paatel.
Speaker 5: Then maybe hag Seth.
Speaker 3: I don't think he's gonna go. I think heg Seth
Speaker 3: is too loyal, He's a he's a team player, sure,
Speaker 3: and he has absolutely no chance of going into business
Speaker 3: for himself. Right.
Speaker 2: This is the big thing is that it's not a
Speaker 2: skill or competency that got these people their jobs, which
Speaker 2: you know, it's kind of kind of was a factor
Speaker 2: in Trump one point zero, in Trump two point zero.
Speaker 2: It is just pure loyalty.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: And if they're able to prove that, especially around like
Speaker 2: you know, the Epstein stuff really really tested those those loyalties. Yes,
Speaker 2: And if they're able to get out of the Epstein
Speaker 2: controversy it's like kind of intact, then I think all
Speaker 2: these guys will be set for like the next next
Speaker 2: little bed. I guess do we think Vance is ever
Speaker 2: going to become a president during the next like year
Speaker 2: or two.
Speaker 3: Trump is like eighties, So I'm not going to say
Speaker 3: there's not a twenty or thirty percent chance that just
Speaker 3: like if Donald Trump dies, Vance becomes the president, right sure,
Speaker 3: and like he's at the age where he could just
Speaker 3: drop dead right outside of that, No, I don't think
Speaker 3: he's likely to become president.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think in the next twelve months, the
Speaker 4: US will begin a UAV campaign in the sahell quite
Speaker 4: possibly in Nigeria. Like I think, yeah, that's possible in
Speaker 4: the next twelve weeks, just looking at flights that they've
Speaker 4: had very recently.
Speaker 3: There's a decent chance too that they start expanding the
Speaker 3: use of special forces and maybe even keep fobs open
Speaker 3: without the willingness of the Nigerian government. But that's a
Speaker 3: longer shot.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the Nigerian government's pretty pretty into it right now. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Do you think they're going to put troops in the
Speaker 2: ground at either Mexico or Venezuela.
Speaker 3: I think there's a good chance that we utilize special
Speaker 3: forces on the ground in parts of Mexico for brief
Speaker 3: periods of time.
Speaker 4: That's a good chance that we already have.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we almost certainly already have. I think
Speaker 3: there's a chance that we wind up having people on
Speaker 3: the ground in Venezuela after a fuck up, right, Like,
Speaker 3: but I think that at present their plan is airstrikes
Speaker 3: and drone strikes. I think if we were to wind
Speaker 3: up having anything on the ground in Venezuela, it would
Speaker 3: be as a result of like a strike with a
Speaker 3: manned craft going badly and someone going down over Venezuela.
Speaker 3: That's not a zero percent chance if they keep fucking around.
Speaker 3: But I really don't think they want to have troops
Speaker 3: on the ground in Venezuela. I think they want to
Speaker 3: be striking targets in Venezuela.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not a place where they want. You want
Speaker 4: largs them by the troops to be to be engaging
Speaker 4: like that wouldn't go well. Trump does not want to
Speaker 4: wear that, right, Like if we saw in Syria, like
Speaker 4: he wasn't willing to deploy large now about the troops.
Speaker 4: He was willing to use a lot of drone and
Speaker 4: air strikes even when the civilian cost was very high.
Speaker 4: And I think that is the model, Like that that
Speaker 4: strike cell model that we saw, like like the strike
Speaker 4: in Bagus at the end of the Islamic State is
Speaker 4: probably a good example of the sort of yeah, quote
Speaker 4: unquote collateral damage right killing civilians that we can expect
Speaker 4: them to see as acceptable.
Speaker 6: I think the final point on this is that the
Speaker 6: Trump administration genuinely believes that they can top of visions
Speaker 6: with their strikes. They thought they thought this with the
Speaker 6: hoo Us and they think there's a buff venezuela. They
Speaker 6: actually think you can do this despite all evidence of
Speaker 6: the contrary. So I think it's going to inform a
Speaker 6: lot of their decisions.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think like kind of not not Syria
Speaker 4: with a SAD but Syria with the Islamic State. We're
Speaker 4: reinforced that for them, but like obviously overlooking like that
Speaker 4: they have an incredible partner for us, so they don't
Speaker 4: have in these places.
Speaker 2: Well, I think that's our predictions. First time we're not
Speaker 2: doing a desk segment, and you know what, I feel fine,
Speaker 2: other Yep, no one's gonna die twenty twenty seven Mars.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Still, I'm not going to say it this time because
Speaker 4: I've been inadvertually blessing him with long life.
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