WEBVTT - 2026 Predictions

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<v Speaker 1>Also media.

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<v Speaker 2>So I have pulled up poly Market and Kyle she

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna go through each of the trending predictions right

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<v Speaker 2>now and then decide where we're gonna be putting our

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<v Speaker 2>last year's profit from cool zone coin. We're gonna be

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<v Speaker 2>transferring that on the blockchain to poly market, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think we can come out of this year with a

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<v Speaker 2>big profit.

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<v Speaker 3>This is how we're relying on funding our operations.

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<v Speaker 4>Jesus, that's going forward. Can you check partly market real quick? Say?

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<v Speaker 4>If Morris he's still alive, Jesus, it's been three years

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<v Speaker 4>in a row.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is our twenty twenty six predictions episode. Like usual,

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<v Speaker 2>I think we should start by reflecting us move our

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<v Speaker 2>predictions from last year to see how right and wrong

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<v Speaker 2>we were. The big one big prediction that we discussed

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<v Speaker 2>the most as a team is when is Elon Musk

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<v Speaker 2>gonna distance himself from Trump? Or when are they gonna

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<v Speaker 2>break up? What do they have their you know, separation?

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<v Speaker 2>And each in every one of the extended cool Zone

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<v Speaker 2>media team members who works on it could happen here

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<v Speaker 2>put in a date and the most accurate guess was

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<v Speaker 2>from it could happen Here's main editor Adam, who said

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<v Speaker 2>May which was really spot on. So congrats to Adam

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<v Speaker 2>and to all of us stumble through our episodes and

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<v Speaker 2>have to edit them.

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<v Speaker 3>All cutting all the burps out.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah actually actually, uh, you know, maybe to really give

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<v Speaker 2>credit back to us, maybe influenced your your wisdom.

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<v Speaker 4>God, let me reflect on his gloria myself.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, we really made him wiser, and thus we're all

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<v Speaker 3>wrong ourselves.

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<v Speaker 4>And taking most psychological da It's a good you know.

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<v Speaker 2>It means that we're smarter as a group entity, as

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<v Speaker 2>a hive mind. We're all smarter than our own individual intelligence,

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<v Speaker 2>which Adam has the most access to.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, just like ants.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but yeah, no, Adam did pretty good on that

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<v Speaker 2>May thirtieth guess, so there you go. Sophie also close

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<v Speaker 2>at May sixth, and then Molly congered June tenth, also

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<v Speaker 2>kind of in that zone. But Adam definitely hit it

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<v Speaker 2>spot on. We had a few other predictions. Some of

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<v Speaker 2>them were predictions. Some of them, I guess we're kind

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<v Speaker 2>of more hopes and dreams, which sadly did not come

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<v Speaker 2>to pass. The meon mar Junta was predicted by me

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<v Speaker 2>and James to Junta was predicted by me and James

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<v Speaker 2>to Making Out twenty twenty five. They've kind of stuck

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<v Speaker 2>on to power.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, if they've rallied pretty substantially Italy.

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<v Speaker 2>It's unfortunate Yaho's still as Prime Minister. I did predict

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<v Speaker 2>that Assad would become a Russia Today host. I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's a good prediction, but did not happen.

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<v Speaker 3>That could still happen.

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<v Speaker 2>It still happen in the future.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm waiting for them to hire him for a fucking podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think I predicted this, but I'm not surprised.

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<v Speaker 3>He's just playing video games.

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<v Speaker 2>No, he's just pulled up in a hotel playing video games.

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<v Speaker 4>Now. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>During There's Our Death segment, I laid out a new

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<v Speaker 2>theory of death based on Spotify Rapped, which the previous

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<v Speaker 2>two years had some important deaths associated with Spotify rap Day.

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<v Speaker 2>No big Spotify Rapped deaths this year, unfortunately, though. I

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<v Speaker 2>did make a death prediction last episode which did not

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<v Speaker 2>fully become true, but slightly became true right after we

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<v Speaker 2>record that episode. Last year, before the episode even aired,

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<v Speaker 2>I predicted that someone would try to assassinate Nick Fuent

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Nick was live streaming, perhaps a deranged fanboy.

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<v Speaker 2>Days later, Just days later, someone showed up outside of

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<v Speaker 2>Nick's house as he was live streaming with a weapon,

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<v Speaker 2>allegedly trying to kill him. This person died later that night,

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<v Speaker 2>and in like exchange with police, it became this whole thing.

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<v Speaker 2>But that happened just a few days after I made

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<v Speaker 2>that prediction, so technically didn't even happen in twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 2>Happened still in twenty twenty four before we aired that

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<v Speaker 2>last episode, But it was close, was close to some

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<v Speaker 2>kind of zeitgeist on that. It's unclear that guy was

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<v Speaker 2>a fanboy. We really don't know much about him. What's

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<v Speaker 2>a few other predictions that have like kind of kind

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<v Speaker 2>of come true, But like it's more in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>like which degree I guess.

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<v Speaker 3>I think my weird terrorism prediction has been pretty Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>area own the money. Yeah, that's that's continued to be

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<v Speaker 3>a driver of the discourse.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll return to that in a sec. Sophie talked about,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Trump moving some like White House operations to

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<v Speaker 2>mar A Lago, which has partially happened. There's been a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of like a like a holiday events done at

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<v Speaker 2>mar A Lago. Sometimes he's working out.

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<v Speaker 5>Of there very odd things.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, But on the other hand, he's also just mar

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<v Speaker 2>a lago of fying the White House itself, which with

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<v Speaker 2>like the ballroom, So it's kind of going in both directions.

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<v Speaker 2>Mia did did put a very firm prediction on like

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<v Speaker 2>an economic collapse in twenty twenty five, like in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States. Again, it's it's it's it's like a slow

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of like one of the key ideas for

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<v Speaker 2>our show is like crumbles versus collapse. It certainly continued

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<v Speaker 2>to crumble, but I think the actual full collapse point

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<v Speaker 2>is still upcoming.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well, we'll get into this more later. I will

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<v Speaker 6>say it is kind of baffling to have my prediction

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<v Speaker 6>completely derailed literally just solely by AI data center spending.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, which I did not predict.

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<v Speaker 6>That any entire American growth rate would be and I

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<v Speaker 6>did set growth.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I didn't get that. No, the actual like like

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<v Speaker 2>job market and economy has become so separate from like

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<v Speaker 2>corporate spending and stock market stuff. And like Robert did,

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<v Speaker 2>actually I think hit this little bit on the head.

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<v Speaker 2>He talked about how the economy will basically remain identical

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<v Speaker 2>to Biden's economy in terms of inflation, but the stock

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<v Speaker 2>market will continue to go up and housing will keep

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<v Speaker 2>getting more expensive, and the left will start to be

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<v Speaker 2>able to hit conservatives on inflation. And yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 2>that is pretty much what happened. E Condomy's in a

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<v Speaker 2>relatively similar place as it was last year. But you know,

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<v Speaker 2>inflation is still ticking. There's some like artificial attempts to

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<v Speaker 2>bring it down by Trump, but it's not really working

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of prices.

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<v Speaker 3>No, the only thing cropping it up in a numbers

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<v Speaker 3>term is fucking Nvidia. Well, in Vidia less so now,

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<v Speaker 3>but just irrational exuberance over AI in general. Yeah, but

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<v Speaker 3>people are complaining about all the same things they were

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<v Speaker 3>under Biden, just more so.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Yeah, I guess I have three other points here.

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<v Speaker 2>I talked about a blue governor deployed national Guard troops

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<v Speaker 2>against Trump federal troops. Instead you got Trump deployed national

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<v Speaker 2>Guard troops against individual cities with like police kind of

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<v Speaker 2>caught in between. We still have yet to see the

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<v Speaker 2>the cool and based moment where like a blue governor

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<v Speaker 2>deploys national Guard against against dhlven.

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<v Speaker 4>Youse deployed his Twitter account today.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>No, Still, Sophie talked about there'd be still no clear

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<v Speaker 2>left wing Joe Rogan, but so many have tried, a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of people try.

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<v Speaker 3>I still feel like I could be it.

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<v Speaker 2>You're gonna have to be a lot more on camera,

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<v Speaker 2>I think. Yeahah, well, they'll have to have a lot

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<v Speaker 2>a lot more on camera stuff for that.

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<v Speaker 4>More camera less hair, larger gut can't be explained.

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<v Speaker 3>Steroids, different drugs.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean Adam Freeland is certainly positioning in that direction. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I agree here. I agree here.

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<v Speaker 5>Also, I predicted that something would happen to the Paul Brothers,

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<v Speaker 5>and unfortunately the only thing that happened is that their

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<v Speaker 5>HBO show did not get renewed.

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<v Speaker 4>When was that boxed?

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<v Speaker 1>Bad?

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<v Speaker 3>That was year prior and it wasn't good.

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<v Speaker 5>No, they had a TV show called Paul American.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, are you serious? I didn't even hear about this.

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<v Speaker 5>It was on HBO, but it got canceled.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess I've just had other stuff going on.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm kind of glad that I've lived a life

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<v Speaker 4>where I didn't know that. I have no shame about that.

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<v Speaker 2>Finally, both myself and like a few of us kind

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<v Speaker 2>of talked about is that there would be this movement

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<v Speaker 2>away from big mobilizations. Some big mobilizations happened in short

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<v Speaker 2>periods of time, right, like especially good point like la

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's probably the most significant, but in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of like like actual like countrywide mass mobilizations, right, there's

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<v Speaker 2>a movement away from this and moving towards lone wolf attacks,

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<v Speaker 2>which did happen, and specifically I predicted there would be

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<v Speaker 2>like a very a very sloppy Luigi copycat in the

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<v Speaker 2>next four months, And oh boy, did this happen multiple

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<v Speaker 2>in reoccurring times. And this kind of played into this

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<v Speaker 2>larger model I was creating, which kind of starts around

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<v Speaker 2>the assassination of shinzo Abe, creating this escalating series of

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<v Speaker 2>assassinations happening faster and faster, because like after shinzo Abe,

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<v Speaker 2>there was you know, two years later, Thomas Crooks trying

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<v Speaker 2>to assassinate Onald Trump and bout the Pennsylvania six months later,

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<v Speaker 2>the United Healthcare CEO. Three months after that, someone tried

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<v Speaker 2>to burn down the home of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

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<v Speaker 2>in the middle of the night. One and a half

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<v Speaker 2>months after that, there was the assassination of two Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>embassy staffers in Washington, d c Two weeks after that,

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<v Speaker 2>a Christian missionary named Vance Belter killed in Minnesota House

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<v Speaker 2>speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and shot Senator John Hoffman.

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<v Speaker 2>Next month was the Prairie Land assault on an ice

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<v Speaker 2>facility in July, the exact details of which are still

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<v Speaker 2>getting figured out in court. But after this things kind

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<v Speaker 2>of tapered down for a bit until September with the

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<v Speaker 2>Charlie Kirk assassination and the attack on the ice facility

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<v Speaker 2>in Texas which kills two immigrant detainees. So yeah, in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of like you know, lone wolf style, pre planned

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<v Speaker 2>assassination style attacks, sloppy copycats, write people writing messages on

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<v Speaker 2>bullet casings, emulating the United Healthcare CEO assassination, this was

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<v Speaker 2>like a super super dominant part of twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the same pattern. I talked about this at the

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<v Speaker 3>end of my episode on and Manchione after like that

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<v Speaker 3>came out right that like there's copycats after every shooting.

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<v Speaker 3>This is basically following the same kind of thing we

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<v Speaker 3>saw in twenty nineteen with the eight Chan shootings right

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<v Speaker 3>where you like this. This has been going on for

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<v Speaker 3>much longer than that, but it's a very predictable once

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<v Speaker 3>you start to expect it. It's a very predictable thing,

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<v Speaker 3>which is, someone carries out a shooting that actually manages

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<v Speaker 3>to break through our levels of apathy about violence in

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<v Speaker 3>this society and keeps everyone's attention, and then throughout the

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<v Speaker 3>year a bunch of different people try iterations based on

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<v Speaker 3>that because it's the only way to get attention, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's what all these people are craving, right, That's the

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<v Speaker 3>only real currency that still has value.

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<v Speaker 6>I will say, I think it says something positive about

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<v Speaker 6>the turnoway for mass mobilizations that the lone Wolf stuff

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<v Speaker 6>wasn't the only stuff that happened. There was also the

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<v Speaker 6>turn towards the thing we talked about in our Q

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<v Speaker 6>and a episode about the Ice wrapped response stuff, which is,

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<v Speaker 6>you know, there were a few big mobilizations, but then

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<v Speaker 6>ICE was forced to change their tactics by the fact

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<v Speaker 6>that giant mobilizations by ICE, we're going badly for them.

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<v Speaker 6>And this did create a whole bunch of sort of

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<v Speaker 6>decentralized rapid response networks and a whole bunch of actions

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<v Speaker 6>that were sort of based on this very very decentralized

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<v Speaker 6>very we show up and we do this thing at

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<v Speaker 6>this place, what's happening. It has stopped some of the

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<v Speaker 6>things that is happening. It has not stopped all of

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<v Speaker 6>the horrors that have been happening. But I think it

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<v Speaker 6>is a positive trend in terms of the way that

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<v Speaker 6>ICE has been forced to adjust their tactics to do

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<v Speaker 6>things that are harder and get less people at a time.

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<v Speaker 6>So I think that's worth as a positive thing worth

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<v Speaker 6>sharing of. How yeah, yeah, that the tactical innovations that

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<v Speaker 6>activists have been deploying have been forcing ICE to do

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<v Speaker 6>less devastating raids.

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<v Speaker 4>We saw various attempts at mass mobilization, most successful with

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<v Speaker 4>the No Kings marches, which were vast, but we also

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<v Speaker 4>saw those fifty to fifty one things which kind of

0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:52.719
<v Speaker 4>were not as successful in turning out a lot of

0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.600
<v Speaker 4>umbers of people. But like me, it said, like in Ventura, right,

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.719
<v Speaker 4>Like we saw huge numbers of people show up when

0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:00.199
<v Speaker 4>ICE tried to rate a couple of agricultural facility. He's

0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 4>up there, and yeah, well like I was up in La.

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.760
<v Speaker 4>We've spoken about that extensively. But like Garrison said, that

0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.960
<v Speaker 4>was probably the biggest mobilization against ICE at one time.

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:11.360
<v Speaker 4>In one place that we saw.

0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:13.520
<v Speaker 2>It's a probably do ad break and then move into

0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 2>predictions for this upcoming year twenty twenty six. Yep, the

0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:32.679
<v Speaker 2>stock market is still trying to keep going, although in

0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 2>some parts is like, if not going down, flatlining like

0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 2>a bitcoined did not increase this past year. There's been

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:45.040
<v Speaker 2>a few popular like rising stocks like Netflix, which are

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:48.440
<v Speaker 2>pretty much at the same spot they were at the

0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.760
<v Speaker 2>start of twenty twenty five, still going up and down.

0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:51.240
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 3>Games Workshop is up forty eight percent.

0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:59.400
<v Speaker 2>Baby ye, war Hammer, the assassin Oran kingmaker, it's great.

0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.720
<v Speaker 3>Sixty seven most valuable company in the entire UK, larger

0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 3>than there a whole fishing industry. Baby really Yeah, that's

0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 3>Warhammer is load bearing to the British economy. It's the

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.520
<v Speaker 3>only thing Noddingham really has left.

0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:17.240
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so they got rid of the sheriff. It already

0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:21.280
<v Speaker 4>went downhill for them. Hey that in Robinhood. Tourism is yeah,

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.440
<v Speaker 4>anything you can do in Notingham. Now, Okay, I have

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:26.960
<v Speaker 4>I have a big one about this. And it's not

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 4>that the tech bubble is going to collapse. I do

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:30.439
<v Speaker 4>think the tech bubble is going to pop this year.

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.600
<v Speaker 3>At about this year, but within the next twelve months.

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 3>I think you're saying, because we've got like three weeks

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 3>left in.

0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 2>This year, Well, you know, in twenty twenty six. Yeah,

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 2>these are these are predictions for twenty twenty six. Yeah,

0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.200
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty six, the tech bubble is going to pop. Yeah,

0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:44.200
<v Speaker 2>that's not the prediction.

0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 6>The prediction is that, in an attempt to recoup the

0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 6>value from all of the completely useless data centers that

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 6>they will have built that can only run LMS and

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:58.200
<v Speaker 6>can do nothing else, someone is going to invent a

0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:01.800
<v Speaker 6>cryptocurrency that can only be mined by large language models.

0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 6>And this is going to be one of the big

0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:08.760
<v Speaker 6>attempts to recoup the hideous, hideous amounts of capital they've

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 6>been dumped into all these data centers. Is that they're

0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 6>going to have someone's going to find a way to

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.040
<v Speaker 6>make a kind of token that can only be generated

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 6>by large language models, and they're gonna they're gonna try it.

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 6>Is it gonna work? I don't think so, But they

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.360
<v Speaker 6>are going to try it. It's going to be a

0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 6>big thing. They're gonna push it. It's gonna suck.

0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.720
<v Speaker 3>There's gonna be a bunch of desperate attempts to like

0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 3>once the money starts falling out and like, which is

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 3>not to say that I think that AI is going

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 3>to even the AI that annoys me is going to

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:40.360
<v Speaker 3>go away, But a lot of the irrational exuberance is

0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 3>going to end, and a lot of the startups that

0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.280
<v Speaker 3>are just burning money are going to fail or get acquired,

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:49.200
<v Speaker 3>and you're going to see tremendous desperation for people to

0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 3>be like, this is the next thing, This is the

0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 3>next thing. Throw a bunch of money into this, Like, Yeah,

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:55.840
<v Speaker 3>that's that's gonna be annoying.

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:57.960
<v Speaker 2>No, I mean, I feel like people have been talking

0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 2>about the a bubble popping for a while. I have

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:05.800
<v Speaker 2>been hearing things from people who think and track this

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 2>more than I do that if it is going to happen,

0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 2>there's indicators that it's more likely to happen in twenty

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:16.280
<v Speaker 2>six than it was in twenty five. I'm not going

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 2>to put money on that on the Calshi betting markets,

0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 2>but god, it does seem to be more of a possibility.

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 2>And you can see this the way people are handling

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 2>Navidia stock right now and being advised not to buy

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:30.880
<v Speaker 2>more stock but still hold what you have.

0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and just where Nvidio stock has moved over the

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 3>last month or so.

0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so if you look at what's happening with Navidio,

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:39.280
<v Speaker 2>we might have reached the peak and oh yeah, and

0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 2>it might be so jover for some of these guys.

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 1>Wow.

0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. I think the big open question is how bad

0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 3>it's going to be. There's going to be at least

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.320
<v Speaker 3>one of these big AI companies open aire, anthropic, or

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:56.840
<v Speaker 3>somebody that either goes bust entirely or has to get acquired.

0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.760
<v Speaker 3>But again, if you're looking at this rationally and wish casting,

0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:04.800
<v Speaker 3>both Apple, Google, and Microsoft are all perfectly capable of

0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 3>sustaining their rates of burn.

0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 2>Microsoft is still going up.

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Facebook is as well. And I think what you're

0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.400
<v Speaker 3>likelier to see is contraction and consolidation, which is not

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:17.080
<v Speaker 3>to say that it's not going to be disastrous for

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 3>some group. I think there's a good chance that we

0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 3>do see some banks fail because there's there's some bad

0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:23.560
<v Speaker 3>investments out there.

0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.880
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, they have been doing collateralized loan obligations. Yeah, where

0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.480
<v Speaker 6>the underlying asset is compute time.

0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 2>This is more deranged than two thousand and eight.

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 6>I cannot emphasize this enough. This is the most deranged

0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.200
<v Speaker 6>thing I have seen since the Tulip crisis, Like I

0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:44.080
<v Speaker 6>cannot explain just good God, So.

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:46.160
<v Speaker 3>No, I mean the upside that we have over two

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 3>thousand and eight is that the thing that all of

0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:52.240
<v Speaker 3>these bad bets are on isn't people's houses, right, Yes, yeah,

0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 3>And so that does there is a potential that some

0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:56.720
<v Speaker 3>good comes out of it in terms of like universities

0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:58.920
<v Speaker 3>getting access to a lot more compute that they can

0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.000
<v Speaker 3>actually use valuable things.

0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:05.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and people are already suffering under recession conditions. If

0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:08.000
<v Speaker 2>you're like a working class person, like you are already dealing

0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.399
<v Speaker 2>with the followed effects of this. Just the stock market

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 2>itself has been insulated from the rest of the economy

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 2>which is in a state of recession. And also it

0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.360
<v Speaker 2>can get worse, which so a lot of people who

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.000
<v Speaker 2>aren't like super wealthy are like pro this bubble popping

0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.399
<v Speaker 2>and pro this because then if other people, people in

0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:29.399
<v Speaker 2>power finally realize how bad it is, they're hopeful that

0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 2>then something might be done to like fix some of

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.919
<v Speaker 2>the material conditions, which I can understand people's like, like

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 2>you know point of view there.

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.560
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I am not as worried about this being as

0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:43.600
<v Speaker 3>bad for the average person as two thousand and eight was.

0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.399
<v Speaker 3>I don't think it's going to be as satisfying as

0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:48.280
<v Speaker 3>people are hoping it was. It's not going to wipe

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:50.600
<v Speaker 3>out or put an end to the annoyance of AI

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.639
<v Speaker 3>in our lives, although it should make it easier to

0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:56.800
<v Speaker 3>rationalize some of the shit people have been saying, like

0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.560
<v Speaker 3>it should make the craziest of the AI boosters being

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:01.760
<v Speaker 3>like this is to replace everything. The whole economy will

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:03.359
<v Speaker 3>be in two years, no one will have a job.

0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:05.920
<v Speaker 3>That's going to be a lot harder for anybody who's

0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:08.919
<v Speaker 3>not not seem like a crazy person while advocating. But

0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:12.560
<v Speaker 3>the Internet's gonna stay annoying, like unfortunate.

0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:14.160
<v Speaker 4>I think it's fucked for a little while.

0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.960
<v Speaker 5>I think my girly pop economy prediction is that we're

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 5>going to continue to see influencer shopping. What I mean

0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.639
<v Speaker 5>by that is like influencers have been pushing products like

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 5>no other and marketing budgets have been going to influencer

0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 5>marketing at a rapid pace. And I think we're gonna

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:36.359
<v Speaker 5>see the implementation of AI into that more. And I

0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:40.159
<v Speaker 5>think that that is primarily going to be one of

0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:42.640
<v Speaker 5>the ways, like we might see less or we'll still

0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.560
<v Speaker 5>see as much, but targeted ads, and we're going to

0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:48.760
<v Speaker 5>see an addition to that, we'll also see like targeted

0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:53.359
<v Speaker 5>influencer marketing for products, and like it's already pretty gnarly

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.080
<v Speaker 5>on like TikTok and Instagram, but I think we're only

0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:57.879
<v Speaker 5>going to see more of that, and it's just gonna,

0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:00.440
<v Speaker 5>you know, going to be peak capital them care.

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:05.200
<v Speaker 2>Something that could be really fun is that if it pops,

0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:09.719
<v Speaker 2>it's going to line up almost perfectly with two thousand

0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.439
<v Speaker 2>and eight nostalgia. So we'll have recession nostalgia, which is

0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:16.439
<v Speaker 2>already starting to happen in the same time as a

0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.919
<v Speaker 2>whole economic recession. So we'll have the recessions line up

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.960
<v Speaker 2>in time with their nostalgia cycle, and then you know,

0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:24.919
<v Speaker 2>it's only a matter of months before you have you know,

0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.800
<v Speaker 2>like twenty tens like hipster stuff coming coming back in

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:32.120
<v Speaker 2>great So you know, it's right there, We're so close.

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.280
<v Speaker 2>We're already at that like like you know, two thousand

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:37.399
<v Speaker 2>and eight level of two thousands of nostalgia. But if

0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:39.879
<v Speaker 2>it lines up with the recession, then that could that

0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:40.880
<v Speaker 2>could be really exciting.

0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:43.879
<v Speaker 3>Now I'm also kind of curious as to whether or

0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 3>not we're going to start seeing you know, a lot

0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:48.840
<v Speaker 3>of the earliest adopters of AI on a regular basis.

0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 3>We're very young people using it to cheat at school, yes,

0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:57.159
<v Speaker 3>and just kind of trawling different teachers, subreddits and online communities.

0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:00.720
<v Speaker 3>I'm seeing teachers talk about like younger kids now they're

0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:04.320
<v Speaker 3>being a backlash among very young people against the use

0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:07.639
<v Speaker 3>of AI and the way it makes people talk. This

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:09.800
<v Speaker 3>is kind of coming alongside as you're starting to see

0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:14.359
<v Speaker 3>a recovery in levels of literacy as schools depart from

0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:16.960
<v Speaker 3>the bad way of teaching kids to read that fuck

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:20.200
<v Speaker 3>everyone up. I don't have any kind of longitudinal statistical

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.879
<v Speaker 3>data on this. This is all very much anecdotal, so

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:25.840
<v Speaker 3>I'm still waiting to see is this a broader trend

0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 3>or did I just come across some people saying this

0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:30.439
<v Speaker 3>is a thing that they're seeing in their area. But

0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:34.080
<v Speaker 3>I'm kind of interested. And there's a degree to which

0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 3>I think some sort of backlash against AI is inevitable

0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:40.280
<v Speaker 3>just because of how everyone running society is trying to

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:43.679
<v Speaker 3>push people to replace everything with it like that just

0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:46.960
<v Speaker 3>inevitably is going to irritate the kids because the adults

0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:49.280
<v Speaker 3>are all doing it right, We'll see.

0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 4>I think people are increasingly better at spotting AI, like

0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:58.400
<v Speaker 4>intuitively and very quickly. It's something I've seen, like not

0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.240
<v Speaker 4>in high school, but like teaching at a university level.

0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:04.920
<v Speaker 4>People just being like, this is an IR response, and

0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:07.720
<v Speaker 4>it's fucking cringe like because the AI always writes in

0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:11.119
<v Speaker 4>a particularly cringe way, right, that is very obvious, and

0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 4>I've seen that. But I genuinely hope more people stop

0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.840
<v Speaker 4>using AI because it is making education a pretty fucking

0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:21.120
<v Speaker 4>miserable place to be right now, which is Tomama, because

0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:21.720
<v Speaker 4>I like teaching.

0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:25.520
<v Speaker 2>Let's go on another at break and then return for

0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:40.560
<v Speaker 2>some mid term predictions. Hey, is it everyone excited? It's

0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:41.360
<v Speaker 2>another election?

0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:44.280
<v Speaker 4>You're already people are saying the most important one of

0:21:44.320 --> 0:21:45.480
<v Speaker 4>our lives, Garrison.

0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:47.680
<v Speaker 2>I think, so just what I was starting to miss it.

0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'm voting Kamala for every single camera.

0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:58.320
<v Speaker 2>Single state level position. Yeah, sure, she will be the comptroller.

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:00.840
<v Speaker 5>You're killing me.

0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:02.240
<v Speaker 2>Who do we think is gonna run?

0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 5>Gavin Newsome?

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:07.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:11.720
<v Speaker 4>Midterms? Yeah, Unfortunately, Sophie, we have another reporter like talking

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:12.879
<v Speaker 4>about twenty twenty eight.

0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:14.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we don't have to do that until next year's

0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:16.159
<v Speaker 3>I skipped.

0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:18.600
<v Speaker 5>I've skipped the midterms, and I was already going to

0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.159
<v Speaker 5>the next level of hell, no, no, no, Who's going

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:23.520
<v Speaker 5>to be governor of California?

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:27.200
<v Speaker 4>James God knows. The Dems have not really been putting

0:22:27.200 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 4>their strongest foot forward. Katie Porter had these like really

0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:34.840
<v Speaker 4>pretty nasty videos come out of the way she was

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 4>just talking to people who work for her. I don't

0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:40.280
<v Speaker 4>think that that is a good leadership great, and I

0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:42.640
<v Speaker 4>don't think that that it's a person we should choose.

0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:45.560
<v Speaker 4>I don't know. I'm so resigned to being it being

0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:48.960
<v Speaker 4>someone's shit, you know that, Like I honestly try not

0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:51.120
<v Speaker 4>to put too much of my time and effort into it.

0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:53.840
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, I know, maybe I'll be fucking Katy Perry.

0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:59.280
<v Speaker 4>Maybe Trudeau will pass on his electoral magic. She's got

0:22:59.320 --> 0:23:02.159
<v Speaker 4>some good songs. She could use them with actually, with

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:06.160
<v Speaker 4>the intellectual property licensing, which Trump doesn't do, she could

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.840
<v Speaker 4>get that shock. Maybe the shock could be vice governor.

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:12.680
<v Speaker 4>You know, that's the potential there. We have worried about

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:13.240
<v Speaker 4>the shock.

0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:18.280
<v Speaker 2>So obviously the Democrats are protected to do well in

0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:21.000
<v Speaker 2>this in this midterm election based on like like like

0:23:21.119 --> 0:23:24.640
<v Speaker 2>anti Trump sentiment and like the regular swing away from

0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:28.119
<v Speaker 2>the like whoever is in the executive branch in mid terms,

0:23:28.720 --> 0:23:30.960
<v Speaker 2>And yeah, I think the Democrats will do well, especially

0:23:30.960 --> 0:23:32.200
<v Speaker 2>if you look at the last like a month or

0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:37.440
<v Speaker 2>so of election results. I think it's possible they take

0:23:37.520 --> 0:23:41.000
<v Speaker 2>both chambers. I think they will absolutely take one. I'm

0:23:41.000 --> 0:23:44.240
<v Speaker 2>going split, it's possible they take both chambers. I don't

0:23:44.280 --> 0:23:47.119
<v Speaker 2>think it's going to be a landslide. It's not going

0:23:47.200 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 2>to be a blue tsunami blue nay. I think it

0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:52.959
<v Speaker 2>may be a blue wave. I think I think a

0:23:53.040 --> 0:23:56.240
<v Speaker 2>wave or a small wave is likely. I do not

0:23:56.280 --> 0:23:59.040
<v Speaker 2>think it's going to be a complete blowout. But there's

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:02.000
<v Speaker 2>been like especially in the Tennessee's special election, a thirteen

0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 2>point shift towards Democrats. We've seen other double digit shifts

0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:09.679
<v Speaker 2>across the country in the in the past in the

0:24:09.720 --> 0:24:12.920
<v Speaker 2>past month. I don't know how much they'll be able

0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 2>to continue that sort of sentiment in you know, nine

0:24:17.040 --> 0:24:21.280
<v Speaker 2>months time, ten months, eleven months time leading into November.

0:24:21.920 --> 0:24:24.760
<v Speaker 2>So I think some of that enthusiasm will maybe taper

0:24:24.800 --> 0:24:27.399
<v Speaker 2>off a little bit as Trump becomes kind of like

0:24:27.440 --> 0:24:29.040
<v Speaker 2>a lame duck presidency.

0:24:29.560 --> 0:24:32.480
<v Speaker 6>But I still think they'll do like Okay. In terms

0:24:32.520 --> 0:24:35.960
<v Speaker 6>of like the Democrats, I very much disapear. I think

0:24:35.960 --> 0:24:38.200
<v Speaker 6>this is going to be like a generic DE plus fourteen.

0:24:38.400 --> 0:24:41.159
<v Speaker 6>This is going to be a fucking massacre. What signs

0:24:41.160 --> 0:24:44.320
<v Speaker 6>are pointing towards that? I mean, they just won the

0:24:44.960 --> 0:24:46.680
<v Speaker 6>mayorship of Miami.

0:24:47.160 --> 0:24:49.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, Well so you're saying it's going to be

0:24:49.320 --> 0:24:50.960
<v Speaker 2>good for the Democrats de plus fourteen.

0:24:51.280 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, like Democrats plus fourteen. Like I'm talking like an

0:24:54.600 --> 0:24:58.919
<v Speaker 6>as a tsunami. Okay, got My prediction is that all

0:24:59.000 --> 0:25:01.479
<v Speaker 6>of the polling people are fucking cowards. What's happening right

0:25:01.520 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 6>now at the polling is that they are using the

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:07.000
<v Speaker 6>twenty twenty four electorate. This is not the twenty twenty

0:25:07.040 --> 0:25:09.680
<v Speaker 6>four electorate. They have not figured this out yet. They

0:25:09.720 --> 0:25:13.200
<v Speaker 6>are still underestimating the exact scale of which everyone fucking

0:25:13.240 --> 0:25:13.840
<v Speaker 6>hates them, Like.

0:25:13.920 --> 0:25:18.720
<v Speaker 3>I'ld be surprised if both houses flip. But yeah, here's

0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:19.040
<v Speaker 3>the thing.

0:25:19.200 --> 0:25:22.760
<v Speaker 6>The Cuban parts of Miami, Yeah went left by like

0:25:22.840 --> 0:25:25.120
<v Speaker 6>fifteen points touch something we talked about in the show.

0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:27.200
<v Speaker 6>They are going through and systematically pissing off every single

0:25:27.200 --> 0:25:29.199
<v Speaker 6>part of their base, right, Like one of the things

0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 6>one of the stories I've been tracking is about the

0:25:31.840 --> 0:25:34.640
<v Speaker 6>ways in which they've been spystematically pissing off a whole

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:37.680
<v Speaker 6>bunch of farmers who are a very very consistent right

0:25:37.720 --> 0:25:40.000
<v Speaker 6>wing voting base, and they're pissing them off a trade

0:25:40.000 --> 0:25:42.840
<v Speaker 6>war bullshit because China's not buying swoydeans, right. This is

0:25:42.880 --> 0:25:45.399
<v Speaker 6>how they're losing elections in Western Iowa. I think the

0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:47.239
<v Speaker 6>other part of this too is and this is how

0:25:47.240 --> 0:25:48.720
<v Speaker 6>I think the momentum is going to be sustained, is

0:25:48.720 --> 0:25:51.320
<v Speaker 6>that things haven't even gotten as bad as they're going

0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:53.720
<v Speaker 6>to get yet. The actual standard of living in this

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:56.480
<v Speaker 6>country right now, it is going to get so much

0:25:56.520 --> 0:25:59.440
<v Speaker 6>worse as as all of the inflation stuff sort of

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:02.480
<v Speaker 6>racks up, et cetera, et cetera. Like, the country is

0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 6>going to be worse. Everyone's going to be more pissed off.

0:26:04.560 --> 0:26:08.320
<v Speaker 6>Trump is going to have bombed like four more countries.

0:26:08.680 --> 0:26:11.000
<v Speaker 6>We're gonna have like cent troops into Mexico or some shit.

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:13.679
<v Speaker 6>He's going to be so unpopular it's going to be

0:26:13.720 --> 0:26:16.720
<v Speaker 6>like it's gonna be the fucking flood out there that's possible.

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:20.639
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think the incompacy advantage becomes less and less

0:26:20.720 --> 0:26:23.440
<v Speaker 4>relevant the worse the economy gets and like that was

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:26.119
<v Speaker 4>something Biden got hit with, right, that Trump is is

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:28.760
<v Speaker 4>going to have to wear especially to get further and

0:26:28.800 --> 0:26:31.280
<v Speaker 4>further into his term. Right, it's a Trump economy.

0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:35.640
<v Speaker 2>I guess this just requires that the current momentum Democrats

0:26:35.720 --> 0:26:38.240
<v Speaker 2>have to be maintained for a while, which is something

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:40.600
<v Speaker 2>that historically Democrats haven't been great at.

0:26:40.760 --> 0:26:42.160
<v Speaker 4>Yes, yeah, they have shift at it.

0:26:42.200 --> 0:26:45.040
<v Speaker 2>So this will require effort for you know, people like

0:26:45.160 --> 0:26:48.680
<v Speaker 2>organizing with the Democrats and social media messaging, like actual

0:26:48.720 --> 0:26:52.239
<v Speaker 2>in person like like electoral organizing to really keep this

0:26:52.320 --> 0:26:56.600
<v Speaker 2>momentum pressure going for the next eleven months, which which

0:26:56.760 --> 0:26:58.800
<v Speaker 2>is you know, they've they've done a good job at

0:26:58.800 --> 0:27:01.199
<v Speaker 2>this the past like six months, but can they like

0:27:01.240 --> 0:27:03.440
<v Speaker 2>maintain this to the mid terms. That's the only point

0:27:03.440 --> 0:27:05.760
<v Speaker 2>where I start to hesitate in terms of like the

0:27:05.800 --> 0:27:08.199
<v Speaker 2>scale of like a blue wave. But I think it's

0:27:08.240 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 2>it's certainly possible that that they end up doing it

0:27:10.160 --> 0:27:12.159
<v Speaker 2>quite well, but it's going to be reliant on like

0:27:12.240 --> 0:27:14.080
<v Speaker 2>maintaining this this pressure.

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:19.040
<v Speaker 3>No, there's still some structural difficulties that make flipping Congress

0:27:19.200 --> 0:27:21.000
<v Speaker 3>entirely very.

0:27:20.840 --> 0:27:24.280
<v Speaker 2>Difficult, especially with the redistricting stuff happening. Yeah, yeah, so

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:26.720
<v Speaker 2>like could they take the Senate quite easily. Yeah, the

0:27:26.800 --> 0:27:29.240
<v Speaker 2>House still up in the air. For me, I think

0:27:29.400 --> 0:27:32.679
<v Speaker 2>lean the Democrat at this point, certainly leaning Democrat, but

0:27:32.760 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 2>still not confident.

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:36.640
<v Speaker 3>That'd be great. I just I don't want to get irrationally,

0:27:37.080 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 3>you know, ahead of our skeazier.

0:27:39.760 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 6>I have watched very very dysfunctional state Democratic parties win

0:27:43.119 --> 0:27:45.399
<v Speaker 6>elections and districts that were R plus twenty two.

0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:48.160
<v Speaker 2>Anything can happen at this point.

0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 4>Like, yeah, no, Yeah, it's not coming from a national strategy.

0:27:51.720 --> 0:27:54.879
<v Speaker 4>It's coming from like local candidates doing well on local

0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:57.960
<v Speaker 4>issues and people fucking hating Trump. Yeah, it is not

0:27:58.040 --> 0:28:03.520
<v Speaker 4>the DNC who is putting Higgins or Mam Damie in office. Well, yeah,

0:28:03.640 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 4>that is, uh, I guess a good thing because the

0:28:06.280 --> 0:28:08.520
<v Speaker 4>DNT fucking sucks. It has always fucking sucked, and it

0:28:08.560 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 4>has really reinforced how much it sucks in the last

0:28:10.840 --> 0:28:11.359
<v Speaker 4>eight years.

0:28:11.560 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:13.680
<v Speaker 2>And being able to hit Trump and Republicans on the

0:28:13.720 --> 0:28:17.240
<v Speaker 2>economy with tariffs, this, like all the garky stuff, has

0:28:17.280 --> 0:28:19.640
<v Speaker 2>proven to be pretty successful so far, and I think

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:22.919
<v Speaker 2>being able to continue that messaging as the economy trends

0:28:22.960 --> 0:28:26.199
<v Speaker 2>in its current direction. Being able to continue that messaging

0:28:26.280 --> 0:28:30.480
<v Speaker 2>I think will help the Democrats. Interestingly, a Platner in

0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:34.320
<v Speaker 2>Maine still seems to be the front runner for that race,

0:28:35.119 --> 0:28:37.479
<v Speaker 2>so I think there's a decent chance we get our

0:28:37.760 --> 0:28:39.560
<v Speaker 2>first total cob in the Senate.

0:28:39.680 --> 0:28:44.280
<v Speaker 4>Well, he didn't absolutely dog shit cover up. I'm sorry

0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 4>if you are listening and you did that yet to you,

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:49.240
<v Speaker 4>but it's probably not your best work. Like he's got

0:28:49.240 --> 0:28:50.120
<v Speaker 4>a blob now.

0:28:50.480 --> 0:28:53.120
<v Speaker 2>That stuff just did not prove to be super impactful

0:28:53.160 --> 0:28:55.680
<v Speaker 2>to the actual voters in Maine, it seems, and the

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:59.640
<v Speaker 2>actual like focus on his talking points have maintained his lead.

0:28:59.800 --> 0:29:02.560
<v Speaker 2>So I think that's something that Democrats can also look

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:04.720
<v Speaker 2>look to. Yeah, in terms of like how much of

0:29:04.760 --> 0:29:07.840
<v Speaker 2>these like you know, like tertiary like personal attacks or

0:29:07.880 --> 0:29:12.840
<v Speaker 2>like you know, genuine yeah, genuinely valid valid complaints or

0:29:12.880 --> 0:29:16.719
<v Speaker 2>issues are are not very dominant based on how much

0:29:16.720 --> 0:29:19.040
<v Speaker 2>emphsis is actually getting put on. This is sort of

0:29:19.080 --> 0:29:21.000
<v Speaker 2>like affordability messaging.

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:23.600
<v Speaker 5>To wrap up this Predictions episode, should we do a

0:29:23.680 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 5>quick death pick?

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:26.720
<v Speaker 2>No one's gonna die.

0:29:27.000 --> 0:29:28.360
<v Speaker 3>I thought you're gonna ask it. Do you think we're

0:29:28.400 --> 0:29:30.400
<v Speaker 3>going to invade Venezuela?

0:29:30.640 --> 0:29:32.040
<v Speaker 2>No? See, this is what I'm interested in I'm more

0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:34.520
<v Speaker 2>interested in are we going to start any wars? Yes?

0:29:34.640 --> 0:29:34.800
<v Speaker 4>Yes?

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:36.560
<v Speaker 2>And is his cabinet going to stay the same?

0:29:36.720 --> 0:29:38.840
<v Speaker 3>Kindness already have started.

0:29:39.120 --> 0:29:41.720
<v Speaker 2>To answer your first question, yes, yeh.

0:29:42.040 --> 0:29:43.600
<v Speaker 5>Is the cabit gonna stay the same?

0:29:45.360 --> 0:29:48.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm surprised it's weird, right Trump first term there was

0:29:48.600 --> 0:29:51.680
<v Speaker 2>a lot of cabinet turnover in the first year. Sure, Scaramouchi,

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:54.200
<v Speaker 2>this is this is not happening this year. This year

0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:58.560
<v Speaker 2>they stayed pretty tight knit, despite a lot of terminils

0:29:58.720 --> 0:30:02.320
<v Speaker 2>or like you know, issues around like Cash Battel, Pam Bondi,

0:30:02.800 --> 0:30:06.480
<v Speaker 2>RFK Junior, Pete Haig Seth with the double tap war crime.

0:30:06.240 --> 0:30:08.040
<v Speaker 4>Strikes No as well.

0:30:08.200 --> 0:30:11.880
<v Speaker 2>They're pretty tight knit, it seems, so. I don't know

0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:15.280
<v Speaker 2>if it's gonna be cabinet turnover. I think Cash Battel

0:30:15.320 --> 0:30:16.320
<v Speaker 2>will be out next year.

0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:19.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think Cash might have Yeah, might be on

0:30:19.760 --> 0:30:20.280
<v Speaker 3>the edge of this.

0:30:20.440 --> 0:30:22.880
<v Speaker 4>Lost the podcast price he just found the ja Sics

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:23.360
<v Speaker 4>pipe Bomber.

0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:25.200
<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's gonna happen. I think the cabinet's

0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 2>gonna stay the same, which I predicted against last year.

0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:33.200
<v Speaker 2>But I think based on how they've weathered certain controversies,

0:30:33.800 --> 0:30:37.880
<v Speaker 2>I do not know if Trump cares enough to do

0:30:38.040 --> 0:30:39.440
<v Speaker 2>cabinet turnover.

0:30:39.320 --> 0:30:41.640
<v Speaker 4>Yeah who I was talking to him about these things.

0:30:41.920 --> 0:30:43.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, well see, I don't there's no one that I

0:30:43.800 --> 0:30:46.880
<v Speaker 3>think is an obvious choice. I think the likeliest turnover

0:30:47.000 --> 0:30:47.880
<v Speaker 3>is Paatel.

0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:49.040
<v Speaker 5>Then maybe hag Seth.

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:51.520
<v Speaker 3>I don't think he's gonna go. I think heg Seth

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:55.360
<v Speaker 3>is too loyal, He's a he's a team player, sure,

0:30:55.680 --> 0:30:58.280
<v Speaker 3>and he has absolutely no chance of going into business

0:30:58.280 --> 0:30:59.240
<v Speaker 3>for himself. Right.

0:30:59.400 --> 0:31:01.800
<v Speaker 2>This is the big thing is that it's not a

0:31:01.920 --> 0:31:05.880
<v Speaker 2>skill or competency that got these people their jobs, which

0:31:05.920 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's kind of kind of was a factor

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:10.360
<v Speaker 2>in Trump one point zero, in Trump two point zero.

0:31:10.400 --> 0:31:11.960
<v Speaker 2>It is just pure loyalty.

0:31:12.240 --> 0:31:13.520
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, yeah.

0:31:13.520 --> 0:31:15.280
<v Speaker 2>And if they're able to prove that, especially around like

0:31:15.280 --> 0:31:21.160
<v Speaker 2>you know, the Epstein stuff really really tested those those loyalties. Yes,

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:23.320
<v Speaker 2>And if they're able to get out of the Epstein

0:31:23.360 --> 0:31:26.440
<v Speaker 2>controversy it's like kind of intact, then I think all

0:31:26.480 --> 0:31:28.600
<v Speaker 2>these guys will be set for like the next next

0:31:28.600 --> 0:31:31.440
<v Speaker 2>little bed. I guess do we think Vance is ever

0:31:31.480 --> 0:31:34.080
<v Speaker 2>going to become a president during the next like year

0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:34.400
<v Speaker 2>or two.

0:31:35.480 --> 0:31:37.800
<v Speaker 3>Trump is like eighties, So I'm not going to say

0:31:37.800 --> 0:31:40.880
<v Speaker 3>there's not a twenty or thirty percent chance that just

0:31:40.920 --> 0:31:43.840
<v Speaker 3>like if Donald Trump dies, Vance becomes the president, right sure,

0:31:43.880 --> 0:31:45.720
<v Speaker 3>and like he's at the age where he could just

0:31:45.800 --> 0:31:49.440
<v Speaker 3>drop dead right outside of that, No, I don't think

0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:50.680
<v Speaker 3>he's likely to become president.

0:31:50.760 --> 0:31:54.800
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I do think in the next twelve months, the

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:59.040
<v Speaker 4>US will begin a UAV campaign in the sahell quite

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 4>possibly in Nigeria. Like I think, yeah, that's possible in

0:32:01.760 --> 0:32:04.680
<v Speaker 4>the next twelve weeks, just looking at flights that they've

0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:05.600
<v Speaker 4>had very recently.

0:32:05.920 --> 0:32:08.520
<v Speaker 3>There's a decent chance too that they start expanding the

0:32:08.560 --> 0:32:12.040
<v Speaker 3>use of special forces and maybe even keep fobs open

0:32:12.120 --> 0:32:15.400
<v Speaker 3>without the willingness of the Nigerian government. But that's a

0:32:15.440 --> 0:32:16.080
<v Speaker 3>longer shot.

0:32:16.160 --> 0:32:20.040
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and the Nigerian government's pretty pretty into it right now. Yeah.

0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:21.760
<v Speaker 2>Do you think they're going to put troops in the

0:32:21.800 --> 0:32:24.280
<v Speaker 2>ground at either Mexico or Venezuela.

0:32:24.320 --> 0:32:28.040
<v Speaker 3>I think there's a good chance that we utilize special

0:32:28.120 --> 0:32:31.320
<v Speaker 3>forces on the ground in parts of Mexico for brief

0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:32.200
<v Speaker 3>periods of time.

0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:33.960
<v Speaker 4>That's a good chance that we already have.

0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:37.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean we almost certainly already have. I think

0:32:37.360 --> 0:32:39.720
<v Speaker 3>there's a chance that we wind up having people on

0:32:39.760 --> 0:32:42.520
<v Speaker 3>the ground in Venezuela after a fuck up, right, Like,

0:32:42.560 --> 0:32:45.320
<v Speaker 3>but I think that at present their plan is airstrikes

0:32:45.360 --> 0:32:47.880
<v Speaker 3>and drone strikes. I think if we were to wind

0:32:47.960 --> 0:32:50.240
<v Speaker 3>up having anything on the ground in Venezuela, it would

0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:52.680
<v Speaker 3>be as a result of like a strike with a

0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:56.320
<v Speaker 3>manned craft going badly and someone going down over Venezuela.

0:32:56.840 --> 0:32:59.680
<v Speaker 3>That's not a zero percent chance if they keep fucking around.

0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:02.440
<v Speaker 3>But I really don't think they want to have troops

0:33:02.480 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 3>on the ground in Venezuela. I think they want to

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:06.280
<v Speaker 3>be striking targets in Venezuela.

0:33:06.400 --> 0:33:08.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's not a place where they want. You want

0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:11.840
<v Speaker 4>largs them by the troops to be to be engaging

0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:14.440
<v Speaker 4>like that wouldn't go well. Trump does not want to

0:33:14.600 --> 0:33:17.920
<v Speaker 4>wear that, right, Like if we saw in Syria, like

0:33:18.120 --> 0:33:20.920
<v Speaker 4>he wasn't willing to deploy large now about the troops.

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:24.840
<v Speaker 4>He was willing to use a lot of drone and

0:33:24.920 --> 0:33:28.080
<v Speaker 4>air strikes even when the civilian cost was very high.

0:33:28.120 --> 0:33:30.400
<v Speaker 4>And I think that is the model, Like that that

0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 4>strike cell model that we saw, like like the strike

0:33:33.600 --> 0:33:35.320
<v Speaker 4>in Bagus at the end of the Islamic State is

0:33:35.320 --> 0:33:38.280
<v Speaker 4>probably a good example of the sort of yeah, quote

0:33:38.360 --> 0:33:41.360
<v Speaker 4>unquote collateral damage right killing civilians that we can expect

0:33:41.440 --> 0:33:42.760
<v Speaker 4>them to see as acceptable.

0:33:43.080 --> 0:33:44.760
<v Speaker 6>I think the final point on this is that the

0:33:44.760 --> 0:33:48.800
<v Speaker 6>Trump administration genuinely believes that they can top of visions

0:33:48.840 --> 0:33:50.320
<v Speaker 6>with their strikes. They thought they thought this with the

0:33:50.360 --> 0:33:52.520
<v Speaker 6>hoo Us and they think there's a buff venezuela. They

0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:55.160
<v Speaker 6>actually think you can do this despite all evidence of

0:33:55.160 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 6>the contrary. So I think it's going to inform a

0:33:57.880 --> 0:33:58.800
<v Speaker 6>lot of their decisions.

0:33:59.000 --> 0:34:02.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and I think like kind of not not Syria

0:34:02.080 --> 0:34:04.160
<v Speaker 4>with a SAD but Syria with the Islamic State. We're

0:34:04.520 --> 0:34:07.480
<v Speaker 4>reinforced that for them, but like obviously overlooking like that

0:34:07.520 --> 0:34:09.360
<v Speaker 4>they have an incredible partner for us, so they don't

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:10.600
<v Speaker 4>have in these places.

0:34:12.120 --> 0:34:14.719
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think that's our predictions. First time we're not

0:34:14.800 --> 0:34:16.960
<v Speaker 2>doing a desk segment, and you know what, I feel fine,

0:34:17.120 --> 0:34:21.480
<v Speaker 2>other Yep, no one's gonna die twenty twenty seven Mars.

0:34:21.600 --> 0:34:21.799
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Still, I'm not going to say it this time because

0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:27.160
<v Speaker 4>I've been inadvertually blessing him with long life.

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<v Speaker 1>It could happen. Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

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<v Speaker 1>For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

0:34:34.640 --> 0:34:37.200
<v Speaker 1>cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:41.160
<v Speaker 1>iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

0:34:41.600 --> 0:34:43.520
<v Speaker 1>You can now find sources for it could happen here

0:34:43.560 --> 0:34:46.520
<v Speaker 1>listened directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.