Speaker 1: Movie.
Speaker 2: But let's break down this AI chip outlook situation for
Speaker 2: all the Micron and send this holders out there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's very important to look at the
Speaker 3: market in this totality.
Speaker 1: Right, if you look at it from the beginning.
Speaker 3: Of this year to now, the story is very clear,
Speaker 3: like the demand hasn't changed. And how do we know,
Speaker 3: Well we started the month when we looked at TSM
Speaker 3: and they're reporting, and we said that that was going
Speaker 3: to be important, right, we need to see from the
Speaker 3: manufacturer and packaging side, has.
Speaker 1: This story slowed down? Has momentum slowed down?
Speaker 3: And unequippedly, it was no, it hasn't slowed down from
Speaker 3: the manufacturer and packaging side, and somebody would be in
Speaker 3: that category. I know they reported back to back. All right,
Speaker 3: well we passed the first hurdle. Now did the market
Speaker 3: responding in the manner that we thought? No, But that's okay,
Speaker 3: we're not thinking from a short term perspective. Then the
Speaker 3: hyper scalers came into focus the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 3: and now that was an important moment, right. We needed
Speaker 3: to see if the hyperscalers were going to tell us
Speaker 3: a different story where they painting a new scenario, and
Speaker 3: we saw Meta and we saw Microsoft, and there was
Speaker 3: two different tales of what happened last Tuesday, but one
Speaker 3: thing remained the same and that Capex was still at
Speaker 3: the forefront and it hadn't slowed down. Right Like Letta
Speaker 3: decided that they were going to spend more. Microsoft said
Speaker 3: they were going to spend more, but they leaned more
Speaker 3: toward the lower end of their expectation. And something very
Speaker 3: key happened the first time all year. Microsoft decided, Hey,
Speaker 3: not only are we spending more, but we're actually starting
Speaker 3: to see revenue come back from this CAPPEC spend, which
Speaker 3: is very important. So when you look at the Azure growth,
Speaker 3: and that was the key number I was looking at,
Speaker 3: have they grown in cloud? And once I saw that
Speaker 3: the Cloud number grew, I knew that this was going
Speaker 3: to be a story. And we've been talking about it
Speaker 3: since we were in DC in February about where Microsoft
Speaker 3: was going to be headed.
Speaker 1: That was positive.
Speaker 3: Meta, there's something very different, you know, they talked about
Speaker 3: how well, you know, it's still gonna take some time
Speaker 3: and it's still going to need a little bit more
Speaker 3: proving to do. And then we saw Apple and we
Speaker 3: saw Amazon report and I'm like, okay, perfect demand is
Speaker 3: still there. Cappax is actually going up, Amazons a number
Speaker 3: one spender. And why is a cap back spend important
Speaker 3: Because it tells me money is still out there, they're
Speaker 3: still spending it and now becomes where so now the
Speaker 3: infrastructure piece comes back into play. So if they're spending it,
Speaker 3: they're saying, look, we have revenue, we're getting it from
Speaker 3: our cloud service. That tells me that the infrastructure story
Speaker 3: is still very much in play. And that speaks directly
Speaker 3: into the AI chip space. And so if we're talking
Speaker 3: about compute, then we're gonna need GPUs, We're gonna need CPUs,
Speaker 3: we're gonna need memory, all of the companies we've been
Speaker 3: talking about all year. This was now a validation. Okay,
Speaker 3: capbacks is still intact. Memory is still going to be
Speaker 3: a part of this fold. Semis is still going to
Speaker 3: be part of the fold. Infrastruture going to be part
Speaker 3: of the fold. I know we saw arm report and they
Speaker 3: have some really good earnings. The story still remains now
Speaker 3: the market respond in a positive way in July, No
Speaker 3: it didn't. That's part of the next story, right, and
Speaker 3: that kind of paints another picture for us in terms
Speaker 3: of being a very intelligent person versus being a very
Speaker 3: intelligent investor. So the AI story is here. I know
Speaker 3: we got AMD reporting tomorrow. We'll talk about that. I'm
Speaker 3: super excited. I'll be telling you the exact things we
Speaker 3: need to be looking for if we're going to be
Speaker 3: investing in that. The video will be reporting at the
Speaker 3: end of the month, so we got some time into that,
Speaker 3: and then obviously we just saw my Micron report at
Speaker 3: the end of June, so everything is right in the
Speaker 3: realm of what we thought it would be. Sands is
Speaker 3: going to be reporting Wednesday, which is going to be
Speaker 3: a big number my estimation, as well as Western Digital.
Speaker 3: So you got the semi conductors reporting, you had to
Speaker 3: capex spend from the hyperscalers reporting. All signs point to yes,
Speaker 3: this story is going to continue definitely to the end
Speaker 3: of this year. And we're talking about maybe sold out
Speaker 3: into Tony twenty seven when we're talking about the memory space.
Speaker 3: So I'm still bullish and that shouldn't surprise anybody. But
Speaker 3: based on what we saw from the earnings thus far,
Speaker 3: all positive, I'm i side.
Speaker 2: So what's your outlook for Mike Cron Sanders ASML.
Speaker 4: Numbers TSM, Yeah, what is the outlet? And then video?
Speaker 1: I'm super bullsh on video.
Speaker 3: We actually are in a chat where I'm saying right now,
Speaker 3: if you look at from a technical standpoint, from one
Speaker 3: hundred day moving average, from a seventy two day moving
Speaker 3: average two hundred, the video has actually crossed all those
Speaker 3: in the past couple of days. If anybody's been watching
Speaker 3: right like it, I think that four today it got
Speaker 3: to two o seven, which was it was a key
Speaker 3: number to get over.
Speaker 1: I think that that was It's a.
Speaker 3: Twenty day after it crosses that hurdle, right, the next
Speaker 3: stop is now going to retest this all time highs
Speaker 3: up at two thirty six, which is a nice runway. Right,
Speaker 3: We got three or four weeks before they report, you know,
Speaker 3: their their quarter's earnings. And the reason why we love
Speaker 3: in video is because we can see what has happened
Speaker 3: prior to it, and they get to set the tone
Speaker 3: and say, all right, look the man hasn't changed. Look
Speaker 3: we're still selling out. Here's our future guidance. Here's what
Speaker 3: we're doing in terms of avera rubin right, here's our
Speaker 3: next generation of GPU, here's our next partner. Here's who
Speaker 3: we're also invested in. They're going to have all that
Speaker 3: at the end of the month. I love it right now,
Speaker 3: right like I've been trying to just stack calls on it.
Speaker 3: I see in video crossing the two fifty to two
Speaker 3: sixty monk by the end of the year, and that's
Speaker 3: my outlook for it, and that's conservatively. Would it surprised
Speaker 3: me if it gets to two seventy to eighty, it wouldn't.
Speaker 3: But conservatively I see it finishing the year two fifty
Speaker 3: and so if that pulls, that means Compute pulls. That
Speaker 3: means Micron will pull as well. So I raced that
Speaker 3: last week. Micron is one of my stories of the year.
Speaker 3: We touched twelve hundred, thirteen hundred. I think fourteen hundred
Speaker 3: is not a space that was surprised me. By the
Speaker 3: end of the year of it be for it, I
Speaker 3: think Sandis will be in that two thousand, two hundred range.
Speaker 3: Those all time highs that we touched. I think we'll
Speaker 3: we'll revisit those probably before the end of the year,
Speaker 3: and in some of these cases will pass it. Same
Speaker 3: thing with Western Digital. I know seven eighty or seven ninety,
Speaker 3: what was this all the time? Is sitting now down
Speaker 3: in the five eighties. So this retracement that we saw
Speaker 3: in July, a lot of people like, when should I invest?
Speaker 3: When is it going to be a good time. We
Speaker 3: saw some of these companies pull back thirty forty fifty percent.
Speaker 1: What did we do?
Speaker 3: That'll be the key teller of how we end our
Speaker 3: year when we saw the market reset, especially in some
Speaker 3: of these subsectors that we're in. And I say subsector
Speaker 3: because obviously all semis are not created the same, all
Speaker 3: memories not create the same, and I think that's a
Speaker 3: very good indication to make. We watched Sandis move, We
Speaker 3: watched Micron kind of struggle today right until it kind
Speaker 3: of closed above. Well, they're really having a fight with
Speaker 3: is high bandwidth memory going to be curtailed by what
Speaker 3: China's doing? Well, high bandwidth memori is different from then memory,
Speaker 3: which is different from SSD memory. Right, these companies are
Speaker 3: all created equals, so we have to be mindful of
Speaker 3: that as well. But those stories are still going to
Speaker 3: plane out. I love TSM. I'm gonna go out on
Speaker 3: limb here. I think TSMS crosses four hundred this year
Speaker 3: just from what I've seen from the demand from all
Speaker 3: these hype of scalers and what I've seen from all
Speaker 3: the semis.
Speaker 1: The role that TSM plays.
Speaker 4: You said, crosses five hundred, four hundred TSM.
Speaker 1: Yeah, four oh, I say so four point fifty is
Speaker 1: the number. Then four to fifty.
Speaker 3: I thought we were sitting still in at three or
Speaker 3: not like we was last week, So four to fifty
Speaker 3: will be my number for TSM.
Speaker 1: Who else you at ASML?
Speaker 3: I got away on ASML only because the news out
Speaker 3: of China and we highlighted.
Speaker 1: It last week.
Speaker 3: It's concerning from a long term perspective, but I want
Speaker 3: to see how fast they can get these machines up
Speaker 3: and running. And the news from TSM in regards to ASML,
Speaker 3: we brought about this a few months ago. It's also
Speaker 3: something that raises concerned for me where TSM is saying, hey,
Speaker 3: we're going to slow down on order machines. We're going
Speaker 3: to try to figure out how to scale and build
Speaker 3: something compatible so we can have more efficiency from the
Speaker 3: ones that we have.
Speaker 1: That slows down demand.
Speaker 3: That's that's their biggest customer is Samsung number two, So
Speaker 3: we just gotta be mindful of ASML definitely still still
Speaker 3: believe in it, but I'm a little more watching that
Speaker 3: a little bit more carefully.
Speaker 4: Microsoft only out of this slumber. Yeah, Yeah, they.
Speaker 2: Had a big, big, big, big day, and that was
Speaker 2: something that we talked about for all long time. Microsoft
Speaker 2: been sleeping for almost two years now, so a lot
Speaker 2: of people holding Microsoft to Tech two index, So that
Speaker 2: was that was a big day for Microsoft.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Again, shout out to everybody that's been on this long
Speaker 3: journey with Microsoft. I remember being in DC and saying like,
Speaker 3: we're going to do this four hundred call out to
Speaker 3: August fifteenth, and just month after month, we were just
Speaker 3: getting beat up in that call. Actually extended that call
Speaker 3: out to December of twenty twenty eight, just because the
Speaker 3: the story of Microsoft is very clear. You're talking about
Speaker 3: a leader in terms of market cap, you're talking about
Speaker 3: a leader in terms of AI.
Speaker 1: We already know it's positioned with OPENINGI and is twenty
Speaker 1: percent ownership.
Speaker 3: But I think one of the things that I kind
Speaker 3: of highlighted then was we have to really look in
Speaker 3: depth of what's happening inside the company. Right Like when
Speaker 3: it got beat up for the last quarter, it was
Speaker 3: because they saw a pullback in the growth of their
Speaker 3: cloud service, Azore. And the reason was because they said,
Speaker 3: you know what, if we're going to spend, we need
Speaker 3: to spend internally and we need to build it out
Speaker 3: even further. So we're gonna spend more money to make
Speaker 3: more money for the long run. And once you understand
Speaker 3: that picture, then you can kind of figure out, all, right,
Speaker 3: cappeck spend is not just something that they're throwing up
Speaker 3: money away at.
Speaker 1: They're actually reinvesting it.
Speaker 3: What happened obviously again is they finally were able to
Speaker 3: turn profit. And that's important, right because not only did
Speaker 3: that benefit them in as a company, right, it was
Speaker 3: at four hundred dollars now where we train that today
Speaker 3: forced four seventy somewhere up there. The reality is that
Speaker 3: Microsoft year to date is up one percent forty seven
Speaker 3: forty and it's up one percent year to date, so
Speaker 3: a lot of people are saying, did we miss it?
Speaker 3: Did we miss it? It's been an incredible run over
Speaker 3: the past week since earnings. It's moved one percent this year,
Speaker 3: so there's so much more room for growth when you're
Speaker 3: talking about AWS, when you're talking.
Speaker 2: About also, it went up one hundred dollars I mean,
Speaker 2: just this is important. And last month it was three hundred, No,
Speaker 2: last week it was three hundred and eighty one dollars,
Speaker 2: and now it was four hundred and eighty seven dollars.
Speaker 2: So it Microsoft has jumped up one hundred, one hundred
Speaker 2: dollars in one in one week, which is actually historic
Speaker 2: for his stock.
Speaker 4: It had it had went up twelve percent, it had thirsty.
Speaker 3: They had as greatest day of any in any megacap
Speaker 3: company ever, one day ever ever. Right, So I'm saying like,
Speaker 3: if people are thinking they missed the story, if they
Speaker 3: thought they missed the boat, yeah, you might not have
Speaker 3: been in those four hundred calls that we did in
Speaker 3: f where you might not have been in the one
Speaker 3: we did in June. This story is far from over right,
Speaker 3: Like they're not saying that we're going to slow down spending. No,
Speaker 3: we actually are starting to see return on our spend.
Speaker 3: So we're going to figure out how we expedite that
Speaker 3: even more so. And so this story that that Microsoft
Speaker 3: is paid in the copilot piece. We obviously know with
Speaker 3: open Ai, their partnership with Anthropic, they're very much at
Speaker 3: the forefront. I think the next piece that we need
Speaker 3: to watch is the enterprise agent, and that's been like
Speaker 3: part of the language over the past few.
Speaker 1: Weeks is how do we scale this?
Speaker 3: Well, we can talk about software, And then Microsoft got
Speaker 3: caught in that downward spyware. All software gets beat up.
Speaker 3: You're talking about palent here, you're talking about service. Now,
Speaker 3: you're talking about work day, and we'll talk about palatin
Speaker 3: here later on. Microsoft gets thrown in that because when
Speaker 3: you think copilot, you think software. But there's so many
Speaker 3: different verticals inside of the business that can generate revenue
Speaker 3: that it makes it even more attractive. So that augentic
Speaker 3: enterprise software, that ingetic agent, that's going to be leading
Speaker 3: the charge. That