WEBVTT - Do NOT Panic Sell Your AI Stocks Until You Watch This

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<v Speaker 1>Movie.

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<v Speaker 2>But let's break down this AI chip outlook situation for

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<v Speaker 2>all the Micron and send this holders out there.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think it's very important to look at the

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<v Speaker 3>market in this totality.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, if you look at it from the beginning.

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<v Speaker 3>Of this year to now, the story is very clear,

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<v Speaker 3>like the demand hasn't changed. And how do we know,

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<v Speaker 3>Well we started the month when we looked at TSM

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<v Speaker 3>and they're reporting, and we said that that was going

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<v Speaker 3>to be important, right, we need to see from the

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<v Speaker 3>manufacturer and packaging side, has.

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<v Speaker 1>This story slowed down? Has momentum slowed down?

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<v Speaker 3>And unequippedly, it was no, it hasn't slowed down from

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<v Speaker 3>the manufacturer and packaging side, and somebody would be in

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<v Speaker 3>that category. I know they reported back to back. All right,

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<v Speaker 3>well we passed the first hurdle. Now did the market

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<v Speaker 3>responding in the manner that we thought? No, But that's okay,

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<v Speaker 3>we're not thinking from a short term perspective. Then the

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<v Speaker 3>hyper scalers came into focus the last couple of weeks,

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<v Speaker 3>and now that was an important moment, right. We needed

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<v Speaker 3>to see if the hyperscalers were going to tell us

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<v Speaker 3>a different story where they painting a new scenario, and

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<v Speaker 3>we saw Meta and we saw Microsoft, and there was

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<v Speaker 3>two different tales of what happened last Tuesday, but one

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<v Speaker 3>thing remained the same and that Capex was still at

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<v Speaker 3>the forefront and it hadn't slowed down. Right Like Letta

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<v Speaker 3>decided that they were going to spend more. Microsoft said

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<v Speaker 3>they were going to spend more, but they leaned more

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<v Speaker 3>toward the lower end of their expectation. And something very

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<v Speaker 3>key happened the first time all year. Microsoft decided, Hey,

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<v Speaker 3>not only are we spending more, but we're actually starting

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<v Speaker 3>to see revenue come back from this CAPPEC spend, which

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<v Speaker 3>is very important. So when you look at the Azure growth,

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<v Speaker 3>and that was the key number I was looking at,

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<v Speaker 3>have they grown in cloud? And once I saw that

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<v Speaker 3>the Cloud number grew, I knew that this was going

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<v Speaker 3>to be a story. And we've been talking about it

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<v Speaker 3>since we were in DC in February about where Microsoft

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<v Speaker 3>was going to be headed.

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<v Speaker 1>That was positive.

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<v Speaker 3>Meta, there's something very different, you know, they talked about

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<v Speaker 3>how well, you know, it's still gonna take some time

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<v Speaker 3>and it's still going to need a little bit more

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<v Speaker 3>proving to do. And then we saw Apple and we

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<v Speaker 3>saw Amazon report and I'm like, okay, perfect demand is

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<v Speaker 3>still there. Cappax is actually going up, Amazons a number

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<v Speaker 3>one spender. And why is a cap back spend important

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<v Speaker 3>Because it tells me money is still out there, they're

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<v Speaker 3>still spending it and now becomes where so now the

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<v Speaker 3>infrastructure piece comes back into play. So if they're spending it,

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<v Speaker 3>they're saying, look, we have revenue, we're getting it from

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<v Speaker 3>our cloud service. That tells me that the infrastructure story

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<v Speaker 3>is still very much in play. And that speaks directly

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<v Speaker 3>into the AI chip space. And so if we're talking

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<v Speaker 3>about compute, then we're gonna need GPUs, We're gonna need CPUs,

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<v Speaker 3>we're gonna need memory, all of the companies we've been

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<v Speaker 3>talking about all year. This was now a validation. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>capbacks is still intact. Memory is still going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a part of this fold. Semis is still going to

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<v Speaker 3>be part of the fold. Infrastruture going to be part

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<v Speaker 3>of the fold. I know we saw arm report and they

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<v Speaker 3>have some really good earnings. The story still remains now

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<v Speaker 3>the market respond in a positive way in July, No

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<v Speaker 3>it didn't. That's part of the next story, right, and

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<v Speaker 3>that kind of paints another picture for us in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of being a very intelligent person versus being a very

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<v Speaker 3>intelligent investor. So the AI story is here. I know

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<v Speaker 3>we got AMD reporting tomorrow. We'll talk about that. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>super excited. I'll be telling you the exact things we

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<v Speaker 3>need to be looking for if we're going to be

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<v Speaker 3>investing in that. The video will be reporting at the

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<v Speaker 3>end of the month, so we got some time into that,

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<v Speaker 3>and then obviously we just saw my Micron report at

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<v Speaker 3>the end of June, so everything is right in the

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<v Speaker 3>realm of what we thought it would be. Sands is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be reporting Wednesday, which is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a big number my estimation, as well as Western Digital.

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<v Speaker 3>So you got the semi conductors reporting, you had to

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<v Speaker 3>capex spend from the hyperscalers reporting. All signs point to yes,

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<v Speaker 3>this story is going to continue definitely to the end

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<v Speaker 3>of this year. And we're talking about maybe sold out

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<v Speaker 3>into Tony twenty seven when we're talking about the memory space.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'm still bullish and that shouldn't surprise anybody. But

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<v Speaker 3>based on what we saw from the earnings thus far,

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<v Speaker 3>all positive, I'm i side.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's your outlook for Mike Cron Sanders ASML.

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<v Speaker 4>Numbers TSM, Yeah, what is the outlet? And then video?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm super bullsh on video.

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<v Speaker 3>We actually are in a chat where I'm saying right now,

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<v Speaker 3>if you look at from a technical standpoint, from one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred day moving average, from a seventy two day moving

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<v Speaker 3>average two hundred, the video has actually crossed all those

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<v Speaker 3>in the past couple of days. If anybody's been watching

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<v Speaker 3>right like it, I think that four today it got

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<v Speaker 3>to two o seven, which was it was a key

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<v Speaker 3>number to get over.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that that was It's a.

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<v Speaker 3>Twenty day after it crosses that hurdle, right, the next

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<v Speaker 3>stop is now going to retest this all time highs

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<v Speaker 3>up at two thirty six, which is a nice runway. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>We got three or four weeks before they report, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>their their quarter's earnings. And the reason why we love

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<v Speaker 3>in video is because we can see what has happened

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<v Speaker 3>prior to it, and they get to set the tone

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<v Speaker 3>and say, all right, look the man hasn't changed. Look

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<v Speaker 3>we're still selling out. Here's our future guidance. Here's what

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<v Speaker 3>we're doing in terms of avera rubin right, here's our

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<v Speaker 3>next generation of GPU, here's our next partner. Here's who

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<v Speaker 3>we're also invested in. They're going to have all that

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<v Speaker 3>at the end of the month. I love it right now,

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<v Speaker 3>right like I've been trying to just stack calls on it.

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<v Speaker 3>I see in video crossing the two fifty to two

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<v Speaker 3>sixty monk by the end of the year, and that's

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<v Speaker 3>my outlook for it, and that's conservatively. Would it surprised

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<v Speaker 3>me if it gets to two seventy to eighty, it wouldn't.

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<v Speaker 3>But conservatively I see it finishing the year two fifty

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<v Speaker 3>and so if that pulls, that means Compute pulls. That

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<v Speaker 3>means Micron will pull as well. So I raced that

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<v Speaker 3>last week. Micron is one of my stories of the year.

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<v Speaker 3>We touched twelve hundred, thirteen hundred. I think fourteen hundred

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<v Speaker 3>is not a space that was surprised me. By the

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<v Speaker 3>end of the year of it be for it, I

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<v Speaker 3>think Sandis will be in that two thousand, two hundred range.

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<v Speaker 3>Those all time highs that we touched. I think we'll

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<v Speaker 3>we'll revisit those probably before the end of the year,

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<v Speaker 3>and in some of these cases will pass it. Same

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<v Speaker 3>thing with Western Digital. I know seven eighty or seven ninety,

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<v Speaker 3>what was this all the time? Is sitting now down

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<v Speaker 3>in the five eighties. So this retracement that we saw

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<v Speaker 3>in July, a lot of people like, when should I invest?

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<v Speaker 3>When is it going to be a good time. We

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<v Speaker 3>saw some of these companies pull back thirty forty fifty percent.

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<v Speaker 1>What did we do?

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<v Speaker 3>That'll be the key teller of how we end our

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<v Speaker 3>year when we saw the market reset, especially in some

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<v Speaker 3>of these subsectors that we're in. And I say subsector

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<v Speaker 3>because obviously all semis are not created the same, all

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<v Speaker 3>memories not create the same, and I think that's a

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<v Speaker 3>very good indication to make. We watched Sandis move, We

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<v Speaker 3>watched Micron kind of struggle today right until it kind

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<v Speaker 3>of closed above. Well, they're really having a fight with

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<v Speaker 3>is high bandwidth memory going to be curtailed by what

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<v Speaker 3>China's doing? Well, high bandwidth memori is different from then memory,

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<v Speaker 3>which is different from SSD memory. Right, these companies are

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<v Speaker 3>all created equals, so we have to be mindful of

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<v Speaker 3>that as well. But those stories are still going to

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<v Speaker 3>plane out. I love TSM. I'm gonna go out on

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<v Speaker 3>limb here. I think TSMS crosses four hundred this year

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<v Speaker 3>just from what I've seen from the demand from all

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<v Speaker 3>these hype of scalers and what I've seen from all

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<v Speaker 3>the semis.

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<v Speaker 1>The role that TSM plays.

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<v Speaker 4>You said, crosses five hundred, four hundred TSM.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, four oh, I say so four point fifty is

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<v Speaker 1>the number. Then four to fifty.

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<v Speaker 3>I thought we were sitting still in at three or

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<v Speaker 3>not like we was last week, So four to fifty

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<v Speaker 3>will be my number for TSM.

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<v Speaker 1>Who else you at ASML?

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<v Speaker 3>I got away on ASML only because the news out

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<v Speaker 3>of China and we highlighted.

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<v Speaker 1>It last week.

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<v Speaker 3>It's concerning from a long term perspective, but I want

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<v Speaker 3>to see how fast they can get these machines up

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<v Speaker 3>and running. And the news from TSM in regards to ASML,

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<v Speaker 3>we brought about this a few months ago. It's also

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<v Speaker 3>something that raises concerned for me where TSM is saying, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to slow down on order machines. We're going

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<v Speaker 3>to try to figure out how to scale and build

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<v Speaker 3>something compatible so we can have more efficiency from the

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<v Speaker 3>ones that we have.

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<v Speaker 1>That slows down demand.

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<v Speaker 3>That's that's their biggest customer is Samsung number two, So

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<v Speaker 3>we just gotta be mindful of ASML definitely still still

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<v Speaker 3>believe in it, but I'm a little more watching that

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit more carefully.

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<v Speaker 4>Microsoft only out of this slumber. Yeah, Yeah, they.

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<v Speaker 2>Had a big, big, big, big day, and that was

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<v Speaker 2>something that we talked about for all long time. Microsoft

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<v Speaker 2>been sleeping for almost two years now, so a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people holding Microsoft to Tech two index, So that

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<v Speaker 2>was that was a big day for Microsoft.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Again, shout out to everybody that's been on this long

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<v Speaker 3>journey with Microsoft. I remember being in DC and saying like,

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to do this four hundred call out to

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<v Speaker 3>August fifteenth, and just month after month, we were just

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<v Speaker 3>getting beat up in that call. Actually extended that call

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<v Speaker 3>out to December of twenty twenty eight, just because the

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<v Speaker 3>the story of Microsoft is very clear. You're talking about

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<v Speaker 3>a leader in terms of market cap, you're talking about

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<v Speaker 3>a leader in terms of AI.

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<v Speaker 1>We already know it's positioned with OPENINGI and is twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent ownership.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think one of the things that I kind

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<v Speaker 3>of highlighted then was we have to really look in

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<v Speaker 3>depth of what's happening inside the company. Right Like when

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<v Speaker 3>it got beat up for the last quarter, it was

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<v Speaker 3>because they saw a pullback in the growth of their

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<v Speaker 3>cloud service, Azore. And the reason was because they said,

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<v Speaker 3>you know what, if we're going to spend, we need

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<v Speaker 3>to spend internally and we need to build it out

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<v Speaker 3>even further. So we're gonna spend more money to make

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<v Speaker 3>more money for the long run. And once you understand

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<v Speaker 3>that picture, then you can kind of figure out, all, right,

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<v Speaker 3>cappeck spend is not just something that they're throwing up

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<v Speaker 3>money away at.

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<v Speaker 1>They're actually reinvesting it.

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<v Speaker 3>What happened obviously again is they finally were able to

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<v Speaker 3>turn profit. And that's important, right because not only did

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<v Speaker 3>that benefit them in as a company, right, it was

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<v Speaker 3>at four hundred dollars now where we train that today

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<v Speaker 3>forced four seventy somewhere up there. The reality is that

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<v Speaker 3>Microsoft year to date is up one percent forty seven

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<v Speaker 3>forty and it's up one percent year to date, so

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of people are saying, did we miss it?

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<v Speaker 3>Did we miss it? It's been an incredible run over

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<v Speaker 3>the past week since earnings. It's moved one percent this year,

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<v Speaker 3>so there's so much more room for growth when you're

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<v Speaker 3>talking about AWS, when you're talking.

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<v Speaker 2>About also, it went up one hundred dollars I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>just this is important. And last month it was three hundred, No,

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<v Speaker 2>last week it was three hundred and eighty one dollars,

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<v Speaker 2>and now it was four hundred and eighty seven dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>So it Microsoft has jumped up one hundred, one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>dollars in one in one week, which is actually historic

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<v Speaker 2>for his stock.

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<v Speaker 4>It had it had went up twelve percent, it had thirsty.

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<v Speaker 3>They had as greatest day of any in any megacap

0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:53.360
<v Speaker 3>company ever, one day ever ever. Right, So I'm saying like,

0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:55.640
<v Speaker 3>if people are thinking they missed the story, if they

0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:57.920
<v Speaker 3>thought they missed the boat, yeah, you might not have

0:10:57.920 --> 0:10:59.720
<v Speaker 3>been in those four hundred calls that we did in

0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:01.199
<v Speaker 3>f where you might not have been in the one

0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:05.480
<v Speaker 3>we did in June. This story is far from over right,

0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:07.800
<v Speaker 3>Like they're not saying that we're going to slow down spending. No,

0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:10.120
<v Speaker 3>we actually are starting to see return on our spend.

0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.440
<v Speaker 3>So we're going to figure out how we expedite that

0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:16.200
<v Speaker 3>even more so. And so this story that that Microsoft

0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:18.840
<v Speaker 3>is paid in the copilot piece. We obviously know with

0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.800
<v Speaker 3>open Ai, their partnership with Anthropic, they're very much at

0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.240
<v Speaker 3>the forefront. I think the next piece that we need

0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:29.040
<v Speaker 3>to watch is the enterprise agent, and that's been like

0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.280
<v Speaker 3>part of the language over the past few.

0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Weeks is how do we scale this?

0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:36.360
<v Speaker 3>Well, we can talk about software, And then Microsoft got

0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.240
<v Speaker 3>caught in that downward spyware. All software gets beat up.

0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:41.720
<v Speaker 3>You're talking about palent here, you're talking about service. Now,

0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:43.400
<v Speaker 3>you're talking about work day, and we'll talk about palatin

0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:46.560
<v Speaker 3>here later on. Microsoft gets thrown in that because when

0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:48.880
<v Speaker 3>you think copilot, you think software. But there's so many

0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.880
<v Speaker 3>different verticals inside of the business that can generate revenue

0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:57.400
<v Speaker 3>that it makes it even more attractive. So that augentic

0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:01.200
<v Speaker 3>enterprise software, that ingetic agent, that's going to be leading

0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:01.800
<v Speaker 3>the charge. That