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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 2: It's time for history.

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Speaker 3: They're all in line, We're ready for the start. They're

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Speaker 3: off in the Kentucky Derby rank. Another two legs more

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Speaker 3: back to win. Wind on the turn to get in

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Speaker 3: the pickup drive near the back of the pack.

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Speaker 2: As the field turns for.

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Speaker 3: Home, heady first do and opening on the outside. It's

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Speaker 3: trying first drive. As they come to the final prolong kick,

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Speaker 3: medling on.

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Speaker 4: What drove on to the line.

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Speaker 1: What a possible result here? Welsh Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: Ready, Hi, Welcome to the Action Network podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 2: Shan Zailo and this is the twenty twenty one in

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Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Gambling Review. I'm ready for

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Speaker 2: the one hundred and forty seven run for the room is.

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Speaker 2: We've got a great podcast for you today, a great show.

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Speaker 2: By the end of this, I hope that you will

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Speaker 2: be able to take away some bets and some wagers

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Speaker 2: and cash some tickets at the window. Now what we've

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Speaker 2: got planned for you today. I've got three guests who

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Speaker 2: are going to help you handicap the race from a

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Speaker 2: general perspective, power, rank the horses in the field, help

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Speaker 2: you build some tickets, and then finally we're going to

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Speaker 2: wrap this thing up with some consensus picks and tickets

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Speaker 2: provided by our experts. Now, why should you stick around?

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Speaker 2: If you haven't bet horse racing before, you might not

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Speaker 2: be that interested, but you have found yourself to this podcast.

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Speaker 2: So there's some things that you should know. Number One,

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Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby extremely profitable to bet on if you go

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Speaker 2: about it in a smart way. Why is that every

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Speaker 2: single year there should be about five or six horses

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Speaker 2: that are listed around ninety nine to one to win

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Speaker 2: the Derby? No chance of winning. Speed scores aren't high enough,

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Speaker 2: form isn't good enough. Unless everybody falls off the board

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Speaker 2: or just gets out of their way, they're not going

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Speaker 2: to win the race. And yet we haven't had a

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Speaker 2: horse go off at ninety nine to one in two

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Speaker 2: twenty five years. Why is that people like to bet

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Speaker 2: on numbers, people like to bet on fund names. There's

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Speaker 2: a variety of reasons why anybody would bet on a horse,

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Speaker 2: but when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of people who are just willing to plunk down

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Speaker 2: money on something that interests them, which is all well

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Speaker 2: and good. But if you go about this in a

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Speaker 2: smarter way, you can certainly find expected value betting on

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Speaker 2: the Derby and betting on some of the races leading

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Speaker 2: into it. How do I know this? The payouts on

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Speaker 2: Derby Day has been absolutely bananas? How bananas? Over the

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Speaker 2: past five years, here's the payouts on some of the

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Speaker 2: bets that we're going to be talking about today. A

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Speaker 2: two dollars Oaks and Derby double wager has paid out

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Speaker 2: at an average of three hundred and eighty one dollars,

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Speaker 2: with the past five years high of twelve hundred and

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Speaker 2: ninety dollars. Again, that's for a two dollar bet, and

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Speaker 2: there's not a chance that you're going to be spending

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Speaker 2: more than fifty dollars on that ticket because you're unlikely

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Speaker 2: to be pairing too many horses together between those two races.

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Speaker 2: If you want to find value, a fifty cent tri

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Speaker 2: effect in the Derby over the past five years has

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Speaker 2: paid out at two and eighty two dollars, A ten

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Speaker 2: cent superfecta three one hundred eight dollars, and the coupde gras,

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Speaker 2: the fifty cent pick five, which starts with the four

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Speaker 2: races leading into the derby and finishes of the derby itself.

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Speaker 2: Over the past five years, that fifty cent wager has

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Speaker 2: paid out at five hundred twenty four thousand, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety nine dollars. Two years ago it paid out

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Speaker 2: at two point four to eight million because we had

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Speaker 2: a few long shots come through during the sequence, but

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Speaker 2: the fact remains. Over the past two years it's paid

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Speaker 2: out at seventy thousand dollars each and if you're willing

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Speaker 2: to go about this in a smart way, you could

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Speaker 2: probably find some value and get a huge return on

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Speaker 2: investment for very low risk second raising. This is a

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Speaker 2: really good learning opportunity if you've never bet on horse

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Speaker 2: racing before. There's a lot of similarities between horse racing

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Speaker 2: and DFS. There's a lot of similarities between building a

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Speaker 2: horse racing ticket and building DFS lineups. Basically, you're trying

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Speaker 2: to build tickets that are going to return something on

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Speaker 2: your investment, but in a way that is contrary to

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Speaker 2: what other people playing. So you're not necessarily going to

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Speaker 2: target all the horses that you think are the most

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Speaker 2: likely to win the race, but you can target the

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Speaker 2: horses that you think are most likely to provide value

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Speaker 2: relative to what other people are picking if they do win.

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Speaker 2: Some of the ways to go about this the same

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Speaker 2: way that you would go about finding a DFS lineup.

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Speaker 2: Take a look at betting odds for horse racing particular.

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Speaker 2: There's some books that offer fixed future odds where you

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Speaker 2: can get money you're down right now on a horse

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Speaker 2: at a fixed price instead of betting their morning line odds,

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Speaker 2: which might move before race time. Not only is that

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Speaker 2: a really good way to analyze which horses you should

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Speaker 2: be using in multi race wagers, it's a really good

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Speaker 2: way to evaluate which horses you might want to consider

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Speaker 2: using in advance of the race in single race exotics,

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Speaker 2: like exactly as trifecta is SuperFect is if you see

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Speaker 2: a horse that's fifty to one on the morning line,

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Speaker 2: but you go right now and look at their fixed

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Speaker 2: odds and they're closer to twenty one, there's a good

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Speaker 2: chance that that horse is not only receiving a lot

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Speaker 2: of attention now, but we also on race day as well.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of informational advantages that you can use,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of things that you've probably done in

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Speaker 2: the past where even if you have on bet on

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Speaker 2: horse racing before, you could probably gain an advantage going

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Speaker 2: into Saturday and going into this race weekend. Be mindful, learn,

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Speaker 2: have fun, and try to make a lot of money

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Speaker 2: for a very minimal investment. Going to bring on Brian

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Speaker 2: Patten here in a second, but before we do, I

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Speaker 2: just want to recap everything that we're going to talk

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Speaker 2: about with our next few guests and give you some

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Speaker 2: picks that I've kind of compiled from the information that

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Speaker 2: they gave me in addition to my own handicapping over

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Speaker 2: the course of this week. So here's a few bets

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Speaker 2: that if you just want to go ahead and get

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Speaker 2: out a piece of paper or bring out your phone

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Speaker 2: and drop these down, I would highly recommend it. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to give you the names and the numbers of

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Speaker 2: the horses. Mike Contie likes to bet Friday Race five

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Speaker 2: twelve forty three pm post time, the number one Temple

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Speaker 2: he likes as a win bet, and he likes that

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Speaker 2: down to two to one or better. Five to two

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Speaker 2: is also preferred. Friday Race eleven, which is the Kentucky

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Speaker 2: Oaks five point fifty one pm. We're going to do

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Speaker 2: the Peoples Daily Double the Oaks Dirty Double. This is

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Speaker 2: a two dollars ticket should cost you twenty four dollars.

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Speaker 2: How we're playing it from the Oaks, we're going to

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Speaker 2: use the number four Crazy Beautiful, number ten Malahat and

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Speaker 2: the number twelve search Results. And then the Derby we're

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Speaker 2: going to use the number seven Mandaloon, the number fourteen

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Speaker 2: Essential Quality, the number fifteen Rocker World and the number

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Speaker 2: sixteen King Fury. Again, a two dollars ticket should cost

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Speaker 2: you twenty four dollars to play those combinations. Starting on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: Race six the Distaff Turf Mile, we're going to play

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Speaker 2: a daily double here. This is recommended by Brian Patten.

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Speaker 2: The number four zo fell, the number six blowout and

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Speaker 2: the number eight got stormy in the first leg. And

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Speaker 2: then the second leg RaSE seven, we're going to use

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Speaker 2: the number four Gamin as a single, and then RaSE

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Speaker 2: seven the Derby City Distaff. We're also going to play

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Speaker 2: a cold Exacta with the number four Gamin on top

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Speaker 2: of the number three bells. The one. Race seven also

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Speaker 2: starts the twenty cent pick six sequence, and again you're

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Speaker 2: gonna use the number four Gamin as a single to

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Speaker 2: start that sequence. From there you can tack on what

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Speaker 2: I'm about to talk about, which is the pick five.

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Speaker 2: So the pick five, this is the people's pick five.

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Speaker 2: Now not fully finalized. I'm gonna end up putting tickets

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Speaker 2: on Twitter. But here's what we're gonna go with. This

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Speaker 2: is a fifty cent ticket, should cost you ninety six dollars.

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Speaker 2: Race number eight, we're gonna go at the number eight

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Speaker 2: Dream Shake and the number eleven Novo Reflection. That's two options.

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Speaker 2: Race nine, Leg two, we're gonna go with the number

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Speaker 2: one excellent timing, the number two win from within, the

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Speaker 2: number four annex, and the number thirteen Scarlet Skuy. Leg three.

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Speaker 2: Race ten, we're gonna go with the number four flag Staff,

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Speaker 2: the number five tap it to win, and the number

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Speaker 2: nine wit More. Leg four. Race eleven, we're gonna go

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Speaker 2: with the number two count again and the number three

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Speaker 2: Colonel Liam. And then the final leg at the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 2: Race twelve, we're going with the number seven Mandaloon, the

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Speaker 2: number fourteenth Centric Quality, the number fifteen Rocket World, and

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Speaker 2: the number sixteen King Fury. Now I recommend for Trifecta's

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Speaker 2: somewhat like a four to eight to one or a

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Speaker 2: four to one to eight format, where that one horse

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Speaker 2: who you're singling on one line is your favorite long shots.

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Speaker 2: So in this case for me, it would either be

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Speaker 2: King Fury the number sixteen or Mandaluin is seven. Put

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Speaker 2: your top four wing contenders on the first line, Mandalun

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Speaker 2: or King Fury in second, those same top four wing

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Speaker 2: contenders and four other horses you like to finish in

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Speaker 2: third on the third line, and then you can flip

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Speaker 2: your second and third lines. So those tickets should each

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Speaker 2: cost you nine dollars. And you can do the same

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Speaker 2: thing with your super effectas four in first place, one

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Speaker 2: in second place, eight in third place, eight and fourth place.

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Speaker 2: That'll cost you nine dollars. You flip second, in third place,

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Speaker 2: you flip second in fourth place. You've got three different

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Speaker 2: super effectas that are going to cost you in total

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Speaker 2: twenty seven dollars. And there's a good chance if your

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Speaker 2: horse hits the board that you're going to hit all

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Speaker 2: the other parts of that wager. So that's how I'm

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Speaker 2: playing Kentucky Oaks Day and Kentucky Derby Saturday for now. Now,

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Speaker 2: stay tuned to Twitter, stay tuned to aactionetwork dot com

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Speaker 2: for finalized tickets, But I hope that gets you set

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Speaker 2: off in the right direction. Now let's talk to Brian Patton.

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Speaker 3: They're wrong in Entucky Derby.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now first on the Action Network. Kentucky Derby

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Speaker 2: Betting Preview. One of our fantastic engineers here at the

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Speaker 2: Action Network horse Racing Experts, somebody who's opinion I greatly respect,

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Speaker 2: and a co owner, part owner of twenty twenty Kentucky

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Speaker 2: Derby Winter twenty twenty Breeders Cup Classic winner, Brian Patten,

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the show. What is it like to be

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Speaker 2: a co owner of horse that won two American classics?

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Speaker 4: Furse, Thanks for having me. It is great to be

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Speaker 4: part of history. The downside to that was the timing

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Speaker 4: of it was couldn't be more disappointing because no one

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Speaker 4: got to attend the Kentucky Derby or the Breeders' Cup.

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Speaker 4: But I'm really looking forward to this year's edition and

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Speaker 4: I think we've got some really good horses. We got

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Speaker 4: people back in the stands, and that'll be super exciting

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Speaker 4: for everyone to watch and to participate in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, really interesting betting race this year. We will get

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Speaker 2: to that in a moment and help you handicap or

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Speaker 2: help you can help us handicap the race. So we're

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Speaker 2: going to start things off. We want to cover all

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Speaker 2: the stakes races on Saturday leading into the Derby, and

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk to you about two of the races,

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Speaker 2: starting with race six, the Distaff Turf Mile, going a

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Speaker 2: mile on the turf for four year olds and up

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Speaker 2: one fourteen pm. Now, this race isn't tied to a

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Speaker 2: lot of other horizontal wagers going forward from here. It

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Speaker 2: might end some early pick five's, early pick fours, but really,

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Speaker 2: if you're looking to bet this race at first and

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Speaker 2: then going after it, you can only essentially bet a

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Speaker 2: daily double or a pick three. Now, there is a

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Speaker 2: good race after this, which we'll also talk about in

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Speaker 2: a moment to build the daily double around. But Brian,

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Speaker 2: what are you seeing in this race? There's a key

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Speaker 2: race from February involving three of these horses, the number

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Speaker 2: eight got Stormy who's the morning line favorite, the number

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Speaker 2: four Zo fell, and the number one Jakarta where Jakarta

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Speaker 2: had the lead Zofell and got Stormy pastor close to

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Speaker 2: the wire. How do you see this reshaping up relative

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Speaker 2: to that prior indicator race? And then who else do

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Speaker 2: you think is a shot to take this one down.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I see it being very similar. I think it's

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Speaker 4: three horse race. I really do it. Got Stormy number

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Speaker 4: five and number four is a fl are going to

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Speaker 4: end up basically passing Zatkarda once again, JACRBA, excuse me

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Speaker 4: once again. The rematch should be should be really good.

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Speaker 4: I think last time it was less than a length

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Speaker 4: down a gall Stream Park. If I very twenty seventh.

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Speaker 4: As you mentioned that day, Got Stormy was ever so

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Speaker 4: slightly favored and held on for the win. With tire

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Speaker 4: Gafflee on the board, he'll be back on her again.

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Speaker 4: She's an eight to five favorite, tends to stalk the

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Speaker 4: pace and again she should get the pace to run

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Speaker 4: at and used a turn to foot to finish the deal.

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Speaker 4: She should get first jump. I believe on ZFL. The

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Speaker 4: one thing to watch for her for me is going

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Speaker 4: to be the weather. It looks like we may gets

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Speaker 4: rain up there, so if we get a little bit

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Speaker 4: softer turf course, I think ZFL may move up in

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Speaker 4: my rankings just a little bit. But I do think

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Speaker 4: it is it is probably a two horse race at

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Speaker 4: the wire. Got stormysfl rematch act like it was, but

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Speaker 4: twenty seven I still think God Stormy gets the jump.

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Speaker 2: But we will see so two Chad Brown horses in

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Speaker 2: here as well. And you always have to fight me

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Speaker 2: tooth and nail to keep Chad Brown horses. I'm turf

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Speaker 2: off of my tickets. The number six blowout for second

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Speaker 2: fourth Street second place finishes. Now, when a horse keeps

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Speaker 2: running in second place race after race, do you put

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Speaker 2: any stock into that or is that just sort of

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Speaker 2: variance relative to how they're performing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it depends on the horse. There are

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Speaker 4: these horses that we would deem hangers for the ones

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Speaker 4: that tend to get into the lead and just kind

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Speaker 4: of don't want to pass anybody, don't want to take

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Speaker 4: the lead. The one thing you can say, if we're

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Speaker 4: sure that is working this horse's favor is he has

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Speaker 4: or she has one of the best trainers in Chad

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Speaker 4: Brown and one of the best jockeys in Flavor and prod.

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Speaker 4: If anyone's going to get that this horse across the

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Speaker 4: line first, it would be those two. So I do

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Speaker 4: give this horse an absolute chance, But I think this

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Speaker 4: horse will be slightly outclassed today with with the Fella

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Speaker 4: and got.

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Speaker 2: Stormy Chad All says, the number two, she's got you

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Speaker 2: who should be closing and running into a potentially hot pace.

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Speaker 2: Brown twenty three percent winner right on turf rases nineteen

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Speaker 2: percent grade stakes that somebody you always have to watch

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Speaker 2: out for. But Brian is going against him in this one.

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Speaker 2: All right, we're gonna move on to race seven, the

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Speaker 2: Derby City Distaff, seven furlongs on the dirt, one fifty

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Speaker 2: six pm Eastern time. This starts the twenty cent Derby

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Speaker 2: City Pick six, which is a mandatory payout ending with

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Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby. So certainly a horizontal wager you're gonna

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Speaker 2: want to put time and effort into. And we're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about the pick five in a minute with our

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Speaker 2: next guest. But based on how we talk about this one,

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Speaker 2: you really only have to tack one horse onto your tickets.

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Speaker 2: Probably Brian the number four Gamin never lost around one turn. People,

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Speaker 2: if you're listening, if you're even a casual fan and

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Speaker 2: you watch Belmont Stakes Day last year, you probably remember

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Speaker 2: Gamen romping by eighteen links in the acorn. Is there

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Speaker 2: really anybody in this field that could beat her? Her

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Speaker 2: speed scores are kind of off the charts relative to

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Speaker 2: the rest of the field.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is a one horse race. You're

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Speaker 4: asking me if anybody can be here. I think if

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Speaker 4: anyone can, it would be number three Bells, the one

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Speaker 4: who has four starts at Churchill with two wins and

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Speaker 4: two second places. The second places if you're not familiar

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Speaker 4: with that, I think Goaman is going to be an

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Speaker 4: incredibly short price, maybe even one to nine by the

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Speaker 4: time they go off. So if you're looking for some

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Speaker 4: value bells, the one is probably where I would go.

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Speaker 4: But that said, Gmin only has one flaw in a record,

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Speaker 4: and that was I don't know what to make in it.

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Speaker 4: It was just not a great race. Gamin and Swiss

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Speaker 4: Guide ever went at it at tooth and Nail. She

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Speaker 4: dares a devil picked it up. We'll see she dares

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Speaker 4: a devil on the Friday car to believe. That'll be

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Speaker 4: a good indicator maybe how strong Gman is going to be.

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Speaker 4: But I would take this as a free square in

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Speaker 4: the pick six and just just one. With that, I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't overthink this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the number three Bells, the one fire a pair

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Speaker 2: of bullets on her last two workouts, So looking pretty

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Speaker 2: strong coming into the race. So here's the question I

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Speaker 2: have for you. When you have a one to nine favorite,

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Speaker 2: is there any value embedding with the top two choices

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Speaker 2: the Cold Exact, So in this case, it would be

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Speaker 2: the four to three Cold Exact. And then if you

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Speaker 2: were to play a daily double with the race before

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Speaker 2: this where we talked about two likely winners, are you

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Speaker 2: going to get any value or are you even going

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Speaker 2: to turn a profit playing two horses with the second

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Speaker 2: spot in the second race being a one to nine favorite.

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Speaker 4: The answer, generally speaking is going to be no. But

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Speaker 4: on Derby Day and Derby Weekend, I think the answer

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Speaker 4: is yes. I think you got enough money in there

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Speaker 4: to these pools that are going to be trying to

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Speaker 4: beat the favorite. Casual betters or just the average better

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Speaker 4: may look for an alternative where they can get some

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Speaker 4: money or just simply looking for the big payoff. So

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Speaker 4: I think the answer is yes. I would play probably

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Speaker 4: both the exact of the four or three exact of

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Speaker 4: Ice Cold, and that would probably also play the daily

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Speaker 4: double with the two horses that I mentioned. The number

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Speaker 4: five got Stormy and number four is ofl Over Goaman.

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Speaker 4: And if you wanted to add a little bit more

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Speaker 4: value in there. I don't think there's anything wrong with

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Speaker 4: adding the Chad Brown horse and their number six blowout.

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Speaker 2: I love it. Yeah, that's you know. I try not

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Speaker 2: to overthink it on Derby Day, like you said, because

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Speaker 2: there's so much money in these pools that is just

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Speaker 2: kind of ripe for the taking if you go about

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Speaker 2: finding the most likely winners. It's the one day where

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Speaker 2: targeting winners isn't necessarily a poor strategy in terms of

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Speaker 2: extracting values. So let's move on to the Derby. Interesting

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Speaker 2: addition of the Kentucky Derby. Really good betting race, actually,

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Speaker 2: in my opinion not always the case with the Derby.

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Speaker 2: Pretty short favorite here. Now, the thing I want to

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Speaker 2: talk about you most, or talk with you about most,

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Speaker 2: is the pay situation. Catter River, who was expected to

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Speaker 2: be the pace center, got scratched from the race. Do

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Speaker 2: you see the number fifteen end up being on the

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Speaker 2: lead or is there another horse that you're targeting as

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Speaker 2: the likely early pace center.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a tough one. I don't think rockyr World

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Speaker 4: is going to be out on the lead. I don't

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Speaker 4: know necessarily who it's going to be. This is one

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Speaker 4: of those when I was trying to handicap this. I

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Speaker 4: think Medina Spirit hot Rod Charlie probably end up taking

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Speaker 4: the lead early. Medina Spirit has really good early speed,

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Speaker 4: good cruising speed as well, so you can probab probably hold it.

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Speaker 4: The one wild card for me that I haven't been

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00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,040
Speaker 4: able to piece together yet is Mike Smith, one of

364
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Speaker 4: the best jockeys of all time, especially when it comes

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Speaker 4: to big steaks lands on Midnight Bourbon for Steve ASMI said,

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Speaker 4: I believe they've only been together just a few times.

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Speaker 4: It's a very intriguing angle, and you wonder Midnight Bourbon

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00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,159
Speaker 4: has shown the ability to get out front, but when

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Speaker 4: he does, he generally fades quickly. So I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Even though Mike is really good at setting the pace,

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Speaker 4: I don't know that they end up sending him. I

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Speaker 4: think they're going to sit back and try to make

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Speaker 4: one run with that horse and see if he's good enough.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I think the pay scenario we just walk

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Speaker 4: kind of through it. I think that what we're going

376
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Speaker 4: to see is with the Kentucky Derby, you're always going

377
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Speaker 4: to have one or two or three strong favorites. They're

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Speaker 4: going to be up in the mix and you're always

379
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Speaker 4: going to have one or two deep closers in to

380
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Speaker 4: come and kind of wind up in the superfecto. So

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Speaker 4: if that's what we're looking to play, or looking to

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Speaker 4: steer people towards, which is I believe, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 4: a huge payout possibility, that's kind of where you want

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Speaker 4: to look. As for those eighteen to thirty to one horses,

385
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Speaker 4: they're gonna come charging down the stretch that look prime

386
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Speaker 4: for this race, may not be good enough to win it,

387
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Speaker 4: but they're gonna pick up the pieces. With the horses

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00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 4: that are trying to win it that just simply hit

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Speaker 4: a wall because they're going further than they've ever gone before.

390
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 4: So with that in mind, I think what we're gonna

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Speaker 4: see is the number one horse, know an agenda generally speaking,

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Speaker 4: you see the number one horses inside draw, we'll try

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Speaker 4: to get the lead. This horse, I don't think is

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Speaker 4: gonna do that. I think he's going to drop back

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Speaker 4: and then look to make a big run at the end.

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Speaker 4: So what we'll see, I believe, like I said, is

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Speaker 4: hot Rod, Charlie and Medina's Spirit trying to get on

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Speaker 4: the lead. I think we're gonna have a wall of

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Speaker 4: horses chasing him. That will probably include Essential Quality. It

400
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 4: will probably include number fifteen Rocky World. As you mentioned,

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00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,639
Speaker 4: I believe that number seventeen, Highly Motivator, will probably also

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00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 4: be there as well, along with some of the other

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Speaker 4: horses that are kind of midpack that I just don't

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Speaker 4: think are going to be good enough to carry the speed.

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Speaker 4: So with that idea in mind, my expectation is up front,

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Speaker 4: it is going to be extremely tiring. It's gonna be

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Speaker 4: a lot of bumping and jostling. The horses that are

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Speaker 4: in that second flight that are kind of dropped back

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Speaker 4: maybe one pacer or one length or so behind, are

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Speaker 4: the ones that are going to have the advantage. I

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Speaker 4: expect everybody to be targeting it's number fourteenth, Central Quality.

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Speaker 4: I mean, he is the prohibitive favorite. He is the

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Speaker 4: Breeders Cup champion, like it's probably he's probably the best

414
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Speaker 4: horse in the field. So if you're gonna as a jockey,

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Speaker 4: if you're going to game plan and you're gonna strategize

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Speaker 4: how you're going to beat this horse, I think you

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Speaker 4: shadow him and you try to get a jump on him,

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Speaker 4: and you try to box him inside. We've seen this

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Speaker 4: historically with the derby, you'll you'll have these these positioning battles.

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Speaker 4: So I think what you're going to see is number

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Speaker 4: eighteen Superstock and number fifteen Rocky World. We'll sit outside

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Speaker 4: of Central Quality and try to pin him down in

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Speaker 4: traffic as they come through that wall of horses. I

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Speaker 4: don't know how that's going to work out. My expectation

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Speaker 4: is that Rocky World and Superstock are the most likely

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Speaker 4: non favorites to get there, so that's who I'm going

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Speaker 4: to be chasing it backing. But I do think that

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Speaker 4: es Central Quality is likely to get a good drip.

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00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,159
Speaker 4: It's probably the best horse. It's just a matter of

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Speaker 4: can he make the distance? Can you get through that

431
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 4: wall of forces that I expect him to hit around

432
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 4: basically the right before the second turn.

433
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the derby anyway, with twenty horses in the field,

434
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 2: you're always going to have traffic issues. That's why a

435
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 2: lot of people want to see the field dial back

436
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: to fourteen horses. And then on top of that, I

437
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 2: think this is like you mentioned, this is a field

438
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 2: where we have a ton of horses who are going

439
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 2: to try to be tactical or be midpack. Early don't

440
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 2: really know the actual pacesetter is going to be and

441
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: be because of that, it's really going to turn into

442
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,919
Speaker 2: traffic issues on the backstretch and who's able to actually

443
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 2: get out in a clear path coming off the turn? So,

444
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 2: so why it makes it such an interesting Betty Grace,

445
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 2: I think there's probably eight or nine horses realistically that

446
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: have a chance to win, which I don't think is

447
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 2: always the case. It's usually closer to three to five.

448
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of horses in that fifteen

449
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 2: to twenty one arrange to have a chance to really

450
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 2: run well. So, last question I have for you in

451
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: terms of handicapping, because this has been a weird year,

452
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 2: haven't had as many horses normally run as many races

453
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 2: as they normally would. Are you putting more stock into

454
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 2: workouts than you normally would? Are you putting more stock

455
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 2: into specific trainers than you normally would? Or is it

456
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,879
Speaker 2: still just kind of a balance of speed scores and

457
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 2: physical characteristics that you've seen on the track to date.

458
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, as usual, I'll try to overanalyze and

459
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 4: I will take all those into account, which is not

460
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,239
Speaker 4: always the best. The mess the method. I think that

461
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:22,959
Speaker 4: what we're going to see this year, though, is the

462
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 4: horses that are training well on this track, that come

463
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: in on a I would call a good form cycle,

464
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 4: are the ones that I'm going to be looking to target.

465
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 4: I don't love what I'm seeing from Bedeina Spirit, for example.

466
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 4: I think it's a really he's a really good horse

467
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 4: and was proven to be really good at two years old,

468
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,959
Speaker 4: has kind of just kind of mettled around everyone else

469
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 4: has gotten better. I think he's falling back. So like

470
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 4: those kind of horses, I'm going to avoid. But the

471
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 4: ones that are winning, the ones that are training well,

472
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,360
Speaker 4: the ones that look to be gliding over the surface,

473
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 4: are the ones that I'm going to be targeting. So

474
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: I do think it's it's worth paying attention to. You know,

475
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 4: if you're a cant better and you're watching this, maybe

476
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 4: for the first time or the third or fourth time,

477
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 4: watch them warm up, Watch what horse you know, look

478
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 4: for the horses that are on their toes. Look for

479
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 4: the horses that seem to be moving over the surface easily.

480
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 4: Like I said, we may get a muddy track. If

481
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 4: it's a muddy track, you know, there's various handicapping angles,

482
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 4: whether it be you know, looking at the progeny of

483
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 4: the sires that they can run in the mud. Those

484
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 4: it can't. Maybe maybe their sires are able to run

485
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 4: the mud. Look at those those those statistics or those

486
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 4: data points and try to figure out which ones are

487
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 4: most likely to succeed. If they've got a track history,

488
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 4: that's great, But most of these are very lightly raised,

489
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 4: probably haven't run maybe more than once in the mud,

490
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 4: so you're kind of kind of gambling on whether or

491
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 4: not they're gonna be able to handle that. The closers

492
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 4: tend to get a little bit more penalized, with the

493
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 4: exception of a orb I guess I would say in

494
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: the mud, whether or not because of the kickback that

495
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 4: they freak out. They don't like it. It's the first

496
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 4: time they've experienced this many horses in one race. So

497
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 4: there's a lot of first for all of these horses.

498
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 4: So the ones that can narrow, they can eliminate a

499
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 4: lot of them. Doesn't handle them the best and be

500
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 4: better prepared are the ones again you want to target.

501
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 4: And that it leads itself to the jockeys and the

502
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 4: trainers where they give you a little bit of an

503
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 4: edge versus just this The statistical analysis saying this horse

504
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 4: ran the fastest, therefore he should win.

505
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 2: Awesome stuff, Brian, thank you. So before we get you

506
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: out of here, what are your picks for the Oaks?

507
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: Who are you going to be using in doubles with

508
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: the Derby? And then what are your best bets for

509
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: Derby Day itself?

510
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 4: Yeah? So the Oaks I think is a three horse race.

511
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 4: Another one I'm going to be using Search Results. I

512
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 4: think that she's probably the class of the field. Travel

513
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 4: call them and Malthought are both excellent horses. I just

514
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 4: I think search Result is again once again prepared and

515
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 4: ready to run proberhaps the biggest race of her life

516
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 4: in this Oak. So that's going to be the one

517
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,640
Speaker 4: that I will target. Will be Search Results with Daily

518
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 4: Double with quite a few horses probably on the back side.

519
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 4: For the Kentucky Derby, I think rock your world again

520
00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 4: in superstock are one in one A for me, quality

521
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 4: will be you know, number number two in my rankings.

522
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 4: My betting strategy for the Derby will simply be a

523
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,719
Speaker 4: central quality, exact a box with a central quality by

524
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 4: himself and then the one, the nine, the ten, the fifteen,

525
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 4: and the eighteen all box together make it fairly simple.

526
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 4: And then a secondary bet that I would include for

527
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 4: most people would be a trifecta box with the Central

528
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 4: Quality and Rocket World as the two that you key

529
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 4: off of, and they also include the one, the nine,

530
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 4: the ten, and the eighteen.

531
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 2: Brian, awesome stuff man. You can follow Brian on Twitter

532
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: at b patent double zero P A T T O

533
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 2: N zero zero. This is this was just great handicapping information,

534
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 2: great stuff for non horse players and horse players alike. Brian,

535
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 2: happy to have you on again in the future when

536
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 2: we when we convince Chad Millman and Matt Mitchel to

537
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: let us do another Worst Racing podcast.

538
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 4: Thank you, I appreciate it, enjoy the Derby, and enjoy

539
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 4: your mit jallibs.

540
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 5: This is Action Network podcast producer Matt Mitchell here to

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569
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 5: Now back to the show.

570
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: We now bring on one of our horse racing contributors.

571
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 2: Guy provides awesome content. You can find his cards for Friday,

572
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 2: Oaks Day and Saturday Derby Day on Actionnetwork dot com.

573
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 2: Mike Conti is here. Mike, I apologize in advance for

574
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 2: giving you the two hardest races of the stake sequence

575
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 2: to handicap races eight and nine. As I was going

576
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 2: through them myself, these were absolute head scratchers. Did you

577
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 2: find them to be the same way for yourself? Well,

578
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: I what Sean?

579
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 6: And I got the email. I have got to be honest.

580
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,640
Speaker 6: I'm sitting here saying, you give me the Pat Day Mile.

581
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 6: It was the one race of the weekend I had

582
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 6: zero opinion on and I said, okay, well we're going

583
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 6: back to the drawing board. And I went back, and

584
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 6: I think I watched eighty percent of all of the

585
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 6: race replays of all of these horses last night to

586
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 6: try to come up with something for you. So a

587
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 6: little funny story about the Pat Day Mile. I think

588
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 6: it was two or three years ago now Funny Duck.

589
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 6: It was in the slop and Funny Duck won the

590
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 6: Pat Day Mile and Funny Duck, I believe, was thirty

591
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 6: nine to one, huge bomb. The horse had no business

592
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 6: winning a race. And I think ever since then, I've

593
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 6: been scarred on the Pat Day Mile saying I want

594
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 6: nothing to do with this race ever again, like no,

595
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 6: thank you. I do think it's one of the most

596
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 6: difficult races on the card this year. Here's here's the real,

597
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 6: you know. I think the big question in the Pat

598
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 6: Day Mile is Jackie's Warrior number three. So Jackie's Warrior.

599
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 6: He was arguably right last year as a two year old,

600
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,239
Speaker 6: one of the most spectacular two year olds that we

601
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 6: saw last year, and he didn't run well in the Breeders'

602
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 6: Cup Juvenile back in November at Keenland and ran a

603
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 6: disappointing third, albeit in the slop at Oaklawn in the Southwest. Now,

604
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 6: cutting back the sixteenth of a mile, does that help him?

605
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 6: I mean, listen, if he runs back to his two

606
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 6: year old form, he wins this race. I think it's

607
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 6: as easy as that. The question becomes can he run

608
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 6: back to that two year old form, and I'm not sure. Frankly,

609
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 6: at three to one, I don't love that price. I

610
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 6: just I don't know if I can trust him. So

611
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 6: I look elsewhere when I looked at this race, you know,

612
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 6: to me, I ended up on dream Shake. And again

613
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 6: I'm going to say, I think a really difficult you know,

614
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 6: dream Shake. When you go back and you watch the

615
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 6: maiden race back in February where he broke his maiden

616
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 6: that was if you remember the day, that was the

617
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 6: day that he ran against Bezos. This was Bezos's first start.

618
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 6: This was back in February. At the time, Bezos hadn't

619
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 6: run a race yet, hadn't qualified for the Derby, but

620
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 6: yet was in the Derby Future pools. He was supposed

621
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 6: to be, you know, the next I mean people were

622
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 6: talking like, oh, he's gonna be the next American Pharaoh,

623
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 6: the next Justified and a horse who hadn't ever run

624
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 6: and was in the Derby future pools, and Dreamshake just

625
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 6: blew Bezos out of the water. He won the race

626
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 6: by four and three quarter lengths. You know, he stepped

627
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 6: up to face grat at Stakes Company. The next two

628
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 6: times out at Santa Anita didn't run particularly well, but also,

629
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 6: you know, really going a mile and an eighth in

630
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 6: in the Santa Anita Derby is a distance I don't

631
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 6: think Dreamshake wants to go. So the cutback to the

632
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 6: mile I think could set up very nicely for him,

633
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 6: and I think a very fair price at seven to two.

634
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 6: You know, when I look elsewhere in this race overall,

635
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 6: I think there's a price in here that we could get.

636
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 6: And the price that I like in here is number eleven.

637
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 6: Noble Reflection, Noble reflection. On the morning line, it's fifteen

638
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 6: to one. Trained by Richard baltis ridden by Hall of

639
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 6: Famer Johnny Alaskas. And you know, this is a horse

640
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 6: who broke his ran once as a two year old

641
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 6: back at del mar ran A. I guess you could

642
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 6: say a respectable third. Has always shown early speed, then

643
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 6: went to the sidelines. We saw him come back as

644
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 6: a three year old, and this is one of the

645
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 6: angles that I love. His two year old buyer speed

646
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 6: figure was a sixty eight. He pops in his first

647
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,479
Speaker 6: race as a three year old up to a ninety

648
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 6: one to break his maiden at Oaklawn, and I love

649
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 6: that angle. He then ran in the Lexington, I mean

650
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 6: ran in the slop, which it doesn't look like we're

651
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 6: gonna have on Saturday, and you know, ran his eyeballs out,

652
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 6: frankly in terms of the pace that he set in

653
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 6: the Lexington. Now he faded again. My own is sixteenth.

654
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 6: He cuts back, We're not going to have a sloppy

655
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 6: track on paper. To me, it looks like he's the

656
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 6: fastest horse in the race. Now, you know, could others

657
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 6: go with him? Could pace pressure become an issue? Absolutely

658
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 6: at fifteen to one, I think in both vertical and

659
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 6: horizontal wagers, so either in multi race wagers or same

660
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 6: race exotics, He's one that I'm absolutely going to use.

661
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 6: At the price.

662
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: Of that, I'm gonna have to add them on to

663
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 2: my list. Jackies were completely agree key to the race.

664
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: Your opinion of that horse kind of determines how you

665
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: need to play it. Number four to fund it is

666
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: a Bob Bafford horse expecting to take money. Also getting

667
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 2: Irad Ortis on board certainly a lot of respect for

668
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: both of those connections. Three for four when him and

669
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: Irad hookup and Dreamshak was also on my list, as

670
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: you mentioned, Trent by Peter rten third in sant Anina

671
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: derby cutting back in distance. Here, what if you're not

672
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: a horse player, what you might not realize with the

673
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: mile races. It's a bit of a middle distance. And

674
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: it's odd because you get a lot of sprinters who

675
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: are stretching out or route horses who are cutting back.

676
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 2: And in this case, you have a lot of horses

677
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 2: who are fast and show early speed, but who are

678
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: also cutting back in distance. So it's a question of

679
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 2: whether they're able to maintain that run all the way

680
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: through the mile. Anything else on this race for you

681
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 2: CONTI the only other thing I'll say, Sean, you bring

682
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: up a really good point about the makeup right of

683
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 2: the different tracks. One thing to note, Churchill down the

684
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 2: one mile race is a single turn race. A lot

685
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: of these horses we're talking about cutting back from a

686
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 2: mile and sixteenth to a mile and at a lot

687
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 2: of these tracks that we're talking about, a mile and

688
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 2: a sixteenth.

689
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 6: Is a two turn race. The reason why that becomes

690
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 6: so important is now all of a sudden, you're talking

691
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 6: about having to switch leads multiple times in a two

692
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 6: turn race. Leads meaning which horse which hoof of the

693
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 6: horses in front right. Are they going with their left

694
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 6: first or their right first, depending upon where you are

695
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 6: in the race, depends upon which lead the horse should

696
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 6: be on. Because this is a one turn race, it's

697
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 6: also something to keep in mind whereas these cutbacks from

698
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 6: a mile and to sixteenth doesn't seem like a lot,

699
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 6: but it's the difference of two turns to one turn.

700
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 6: It's the only other thing I'd call out with the race.

701
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, tough race to handicap. That is the Pat Day

702
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: Mile and that is at two forty eight pm. It's

703
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: race eight. We're going to move on to race nine,

704
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 2: the American Turf going a mile and sixteenth on the

705
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: turf for three year olds. This is race nine at

706
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 2: three forty pm. A lot of top trainers in this race. Baffer,

707
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 2: Chad Brown, Bill Mock, Sug McGahee, Todd Pletcher, Michael Maker,

708
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 2: Brad Cox, keep this, Armo, Leslie Wore, I mean, you

709
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: name it. There's trainers in this race.

710
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 4: Addex.

711
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 2: The number four is the seventy two favorite for Bill

712
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 2: Mott picked up Irad Ortiz Junior on them ount there

713
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 2: favored looks like because of his connections because he's three

714
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 2: and ozero, but doesn't necessarily have the speed scores that

715
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 2: have a significant edge over this field. I also like

716
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 2: the number one excellent timing. You rarely get ten to

717
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 2: one on Chad Brown in a turf race first start

718
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: for this horse on grass, but when Chad Brown puts

719
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 2: his horses on grass for the first time over from dirt,

720
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 2: went it a twenty one percent rate. Conzi, another really

721
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 2: really difficult race to handicap. What do you see in

722
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 2: the American turf.

723
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, I totally agree, Sean, another really difficult race. A

724
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 6: couple of things. I think you pointed out it's a

725
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 6: who's who in terms of the trainers in this race.

726
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know as though that there's a

727
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 6: horse in the race that's, you know, not trained by

728
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 6: one of these big trainers that you mentioned that you

729
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 6: can just automatically toss. So I think that obviously makes

730
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 6: it difficult, you know, annex I think to your point,

731
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 6: as the favorite, how can you argue Irad? I think

732
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 6: he's probably the best rider in the country right now,

733
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 6: right and potentially the best rider in the world, and amazing,

734
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 6: amazing turf rider wins it twenty eight percent on the turf.

735
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 6: Horse is stepping up in class. Going a little bit longer,

736
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 6: I don't think that that'll be an issue for the horse.

737
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 6: At seven to two Billmont and an Irad, the horse

738
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 6: could get bet down, you know, if you get anything

739
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 6: below three to one. I don't know how much value

740
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 6: there is on annex. I actually went further to the

741
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 6: outside to number thirteen Scarlet Sky as my top pick

742
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 6: in here. Trained by Shug McGahee, ridden by Joel Rosario.

743
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 6: Joel coming off an excellent meat at Keeenland. Just you know,

744
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 6: I think Joel is one of those riders that just

745
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 6: knows where the wire is at all times and knows

746
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 6: how to time his run. And I think this is

747
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 6: going to be a case where we're going to see

748
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 6: that come into play. Right starting from this outside post,

749
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 6: He's going to have to work out a little bit

750
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 6: of a trip going into that first turn. I do

751
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 6: think that this horse has some of the best, if

752
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 6: not the best late pace figures and late kick in

753
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 6: this field, so he would be my top choice in here.

754
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 6: I also did like the number one that you mentioned

755
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 6: excellent timing not only Chad Brown and some of the

756
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 6: stats that you mentioned. Also when I looked at the

757
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 6: pedigree of this horse, so the sire the father and

758
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 6: the damn the mother of this horse, and looking at

759
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 6: what some of their turf statistics are. The sire not

760
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 6: this time, with his first time turf starters, wins it

761
00:36:56,360 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 6: a twenty four percent clip, and the damn sire, Pioneer

762
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 6: of the Nile, wins it a fifteen percent clip first

763
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 6: time on the turf. So the horse's bred up and

764
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 6: down for the turf, and he gets one of my

765
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 6: favorite jockeys right now, Umberto Resent believe, who is a

766
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 6: West Coast rider. He came over from the European circuit,

767
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 6: I think two years ago. Now. This guy just always

768
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 6: seems to know how to how to put his horses

769
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 6: in the right places. And one of the things if

770
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 6: you listen to some of these analysts and the Gary

771
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 6: Stevens of the world and some of these former jockeys

772
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 6: talk about Humberto and what and why he's so good.

773
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 6: He gets his horses to just relax early in the race,

774
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 6: and his hands are just so soft to allow them

775
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 6: to do what they want to do, and then knows

776
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 6: when to ask them so at ten to one, to

777
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 6: your point, Sean, you know, excellent price love Humberto getting

778
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 6: a board. The other horse that I looked at in

779
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 6: here is number two win from within Luis Sia's todd pletch.

780
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 6: This horse is two for two over the turf course,

781
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 6: is going to be not the speed but probably one

782
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 6: of the speed horses in this race. And Luis Sias

783
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 6: always dangerous on the front end, and if he can

784
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 6: get a loose lead, I don't think he will, but

785
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 6: if he gets a loose lead, we could see a

786
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 6: kay to wire winner here at eight to one. You know,

787
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 6: those were the three horses that I liked most, you know,

788
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 6: and I do like annex, don't get me wrong, but

789
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 6: I just I don't think that we're going to get

790
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 6: a price that's worth betting on in this race. And

791
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 6: you brought up the speed figures aren't all that impressive.

792
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna wait and see approach on this horse.

793
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 6: Not a win bet contender for me, but definitely we'll

794
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 6: use in again vertical and horizontal exotics.

795
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 2: Talk about the Kentucky Derby for a few minutes. Race twelve,

796
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 2: six fifty seven pm post on Saturday. I'm gonna give

797
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 2: you a list of horses that I'm looking at tossing out,

798
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 2: and you tell me if you would keep any of

799
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 2: these in or pull them off of my toss list

800
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 2: Number two like the King, number three, Brooklyn Strong number four,

801
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 2: keep me in mind, number five, Seenhood, number twelve, Helium,

802
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: number thirteen, Hidden Stash, and number twenty verbonic. I want

803
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: to toss all those. Would you keep any of that list?

804
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 6: Are you tossing them as wind bets for multi race

805
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 6: wagers or are you saying for exotics as well?

806
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 2: Exotics as well for that list?

807
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 4: Yeah?

808
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 6: Completely, I think you can toss all of them for

809
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 6: win bets. Absolutely. I don't know. I went back and

810
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 6: watched the stakes race at Turfway that Sainthood qualified for

811
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 6: the Derbian, the Jeff Ruby Steaks. I don't know if

812
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 6: he's a toss underneath at a price I would include underneath,

813
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 6: you know, supers. I don't know if he's a try horse,

814
00:39:56,760 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 6: but superfecta so top four and the other And I

815
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 6: liked this horse early on. I like this horse in

816
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 6: the Sam F. Davis. I like this horse in the

817
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 6: Tampa Bay Derby Hidden Stash. You know, he's one of

818
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 6: these horses that is at a huge price, could be

819
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 6: picking up pieces late and could get a piece of

820
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 6: the pie again. Maybe not hitting the board pie, but

821
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 6: a fourth place finish at a huge price that could

822
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 6: be a life changing superscore super score. So I would

823
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 6: not throw him out of the exotics.

824
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 2: Love that. Yeah, those were honestly, those were the two

825
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 2: that not only have I seen other kappers recommend them underneath,

826
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 2: but the two that I was most tepid about leaving

827
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: completely off of tickets. So I'll have to reconsider those. Okay,

828
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 2: let's talk about not your top selection quite yet, but

829
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: the long shots or the horses, and let's say the

830
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 2: fifteen to one, twenty to one, thirty to one at

831
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: above range, not only do you think they have a

832
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 2: chance of winning the race, but you think they have

833
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: a good chance of getting into exotics.

834
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 6: Question. So, based on morning line, I think is going

835
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 6: to be different than what we see if they did.

836
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 6: I think the first horse we have to talk about,

837
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 6: because of all the buzz around this horse working out

838
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,879
Speaker 6: and everything else, is Mandaloon, right. I think wise Guy

839
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 6: Horse probably would be fair to say everybody seems high

840
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 6: on Mandaloon. This also could be one of those cases, Sean,

841
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 6: where there are times when you have these big trainers,

842
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 6: the plecchers, the Bafferts, the Chad Browns, the brad Cox

843
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 6: is now where sometimes it's you take the other horse right.

844
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 6: And what I mean by that is brad Cox obviously

845
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 6: has essential quality. I'm sure we'll talk about in a minute.

846
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 6: But Mandaloon is one of the other brad Cox horses.

847
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 6: And if you throw out that Louisiana Derby race, everything

848
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 6: else looks really good and he fits in here. So

849
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 6: at fifteen to one, yes, absolutely, I don't know, and

850
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 6: I don't think we're getting fifteen to one on Derby day.

851
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 6: The other horse I would speak to Medina Spear at

852
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 6: fifteen to one, I personally don't really like this horse,

853
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 6: but how can you leave Bafferd out of a Kentucky Derby.

854
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 6: He just seems to be a staple year in and

855
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 6: year out. And the other horse at a price that

856
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 6: I actually think has a big chance is King Fury.

857
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 6: If you go back, and first of all, one of

858
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 6: the angles we talked about earlier, the two year old

859
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 6: to three year old jump in buyer speed figures. Last

860
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 6: race as a two year old was the Kentucky Jockey

861
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 6: Club Grade two right here at Churchill Downs ran As

862
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 6: I guess you would say disappointing fifth seventy one was

863
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 6: the buyer speed figure number that day. Came back and

864
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 6: ran into Lexington a couple of weeks back now and

865
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 6: popped to a ninety six. And when you watch that race,

866
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 6: King Fury has that push button speed. I mean, Brian Hernandez,

867
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 6: the jockey didn't even look like he asked King Fury

868
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 6: to make the move on the turn. When he did

869
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 6: makes the move on the turn splits horses. The question

870
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 6: becomes did the horse just love the slop? I mean

871
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 6: he's out of Curlan, so Curlin's tend to love the slop.

872
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,720
Speaker 6: That's the question. At twenty to one. Definitely a horse

873
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 6: that I think is a wind contender and somebody that

874
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 6: you absolutely have to use as a longer price horse

875
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 6: without a doubt.

876
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't agree with you more on Mandaloon. I

877
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: think some people are pronouncing it Mandalowan. I'm gonna have

878
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 2: to get the correct pronunciation on that. But he has

879
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 2: been the buzz horse all week in workouts. So, as

880
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 2: you mentioned, taking the other one from these top trainers,

881
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 2: Todd Pletcher, I believes four horses in this field. I've

882
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 2: been told the dynamic one has been out working non

883
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 2: agenda and with Brad Cox all week. I've been told

884
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 2: that Mandalouan has been outworking a central quality and I

885
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 2: think those are probably two of my favorite ones in

886
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 2: that same range. In addition to King Fury, who you

887
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 2: also mentioned, I think that horse is getting a lot

888
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 2: of buzz too. All right, time for top selections in

889
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 2: the Derby. Who are you picking to win the race?

890
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 2: Give me any bets that you might be making, and

891
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 2: then your picks for the oaks as well.

892
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I'll start by saying this, and I hate

893
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 6: to say this, but prior to the draw for the post,

894
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 6: I was I thought I was onnown agenda. Now, something

895
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,959
Speaker 6: key that I think listeners need to understand. The one

896
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 6: hole this year is not as bad as what it

897
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 6: was in previous years. They changed the starting gate so

898
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 6: it's one continuous gate. In previous years we had an

899
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 6: auxiliary gate that went from I think it was like

900
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 6: fifteen to twenty. I think it fit one to fourteen,

901
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 6: and then fifteen to twenty was the auxiliary gate, and

902
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 6: so they kind of smushed it all together, if you will,

903
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 6: and it's all one gate, and the gates are actually

904
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 6: a little bit more narrow so that one horse isn't

905
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 6: basically behind the rail for where they start, so it's

906
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 6: not as big of a deal as it once was.

907
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 6: I still like known agenda, but my top pick in

908
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 6: the race is number fifteen. Rock Your World.

909
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 2: Now.

910
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 6: I love this horse in the Santa Needa Derby, and

911
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,280
Speaker 6: he went off at five to one, and I hope

912
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 6: that we get five to one again on him. I listen.

913
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 6: I don't think that he needs the lead. He could

914
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 6: obviously go gate to wire again. He could sit a

915
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 6: stocking trip. Absolutely. I think his post position for his

916
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 6: running style is fantastic. Also, based on some of the

917
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 6: horses around him, I think it'll play very well for him.

918
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 6: Interesting stat that I heard, and this was one of

919
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 6: the reasons I loved him in the Santa Anita Derby.

920
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 6: Candy Ride, the sire the father of Rock Your World

921
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 6: wins at a twenty one percent clip with his starters

922
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 6: in Grade one races. That's unheard of twenty one percent

923
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 6: Grade one winners for Candy Rode, and you know I

924
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 6: John Sadler, the trainer, said that this was always the plan,

925
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 6: was to start this horse on the turf and go

926
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 6: to the dirt. Sometimes the turf is more forgiving. It

927
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 6: doesn't beat the horses up as much. And we saw,

928
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 6: you know, a couple of years ago with Justify, you

929
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 6: don't have to run as a two year old to

930
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 6: win the Kentucky Derby, and so Rock Your World is

931
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 6: my top pick here. I also we talked about King

932
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 6: Fury already was in essential quality, hasn't done anything wrong

933
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:33,439
Speaker 6: per se and obviously, I mean he's undefeated. How much

934
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 6: did you really have against the horse? But I at

935
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 6: two to one, I'll look elsewhere. You absolutely have to

936
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 6: include him in all of your bets. You have to,

937
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 6: but I don't think he's a win bet contender at

938
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 6: the price, and I would look to actually key him,

939
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 6: you know, in other spots, potentially with Rock Your World.

940
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 6: The other horse that I really like in here is

941
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:03,839
Speaker 6: Highly Motivated, who gave Essential Quality all that he could

942
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 6: handle in that Bluegrass back at the beginning of April

943
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 6: at Keenland. Frankly to the point where I actually thought

944
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 6: Highly Motivated was going to win the race deep stretch

945
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 6: at ten to one. You know another horse who I

946
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 6: think could be sitting on on a big one, you

947
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 6: know underneath in terms of who else I'll be using

948
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 6: I do think that Superstock has a real chance to

949
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 6: get a part and get a piece of it. So

950
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 6: I really liked him underneath. You know, we talked about

951
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,879
Speaker 6: hidden stash already. You mentioned Dynamic one. I don't think

952
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 6: he's a wind contender for me, but I do like

953
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:46,399
Speaker 6: him underneath number nine hot Rod. Charlie, here's another wind

954
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 6: contender for me, Doug O'Neill Trainey. Doug O'Neil's won this

955
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 6: race a number of times, and this horse won the

956
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:58,760
Speaker 6: Louisiana Derby and and frankly dug in into Louisiana Derby.

957
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 6: I thought that this horse was not going to win

958
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 6: the Louisiana Derby when you know Midnight Bourbon and some

959
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 6: of these others took the turn. He took the turn

960
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:12,479
Speaker 6: in front, but he didn't look great. The other horse

961
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 6: at a price that I'm gonna use underneath in my

962
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 6: exact as or in my exotics, I should say, is

963
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 6: o Bezos also ran in that Louisiana Derby race. If

964
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 6: you go back and watch that race, watch the rail

965
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:30,439
Speaker 6: move that this horse makes. And Frankly, the extra sixteenth

966
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 6: of a mile here might be the difference for this horse.

967
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,399
Speaker 6: Because this horse won the gallop out and so at

968
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 6: twenty to one, I think that he's a horse that

969
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 6: is absolutely worth a shot. He's another one who his

970
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 6: buyer speed figures have progressed throughout his entire career. We

971
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 6: didn't see a huge pop from two to three. His

972
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 6: trainer Greg fully not as well known. But you know

973
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 6: what a horse at twenty to one that I'm definitely

974
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 6: using underneath.

975
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 2: Really good stuff. Kanti. Before we let you go, I

976
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 2: know that you have a pick for Oaks Day, in

977
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 2: case people were able to listen to the pod in time.

978
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 2: Race five twelve forty three pm, post one in one

979
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 2: eighth miles on the turf. Who are you picking in

980
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 2: this race?

981
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 6: I love number one Temple horses five to one on

982
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 6: the morning line. Frankly, I don't think we're going to

983
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 6: get five to one. Anything above you know, two to one,

984
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 6: five to two I think is absolutely a wind. Bet

985
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:29,479
Speaker 6: Maker always has his horses ready for these longer route

986
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 6: races on the turf. A couple of races back, this

987
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 6: horse ran second to another mic Maker horse at Gulf

988
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 6: Stream in a mile and a half race tie to

989
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 6: the sea, and I think it's Temple's time. He gets

990
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 6: Joelle aboard. Joelle, like we mentioned this earlier, he's going

991
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 6: to be able to work out a trip. You know,

992
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 6: Joel is winning at twenty one percent over the turf,

993
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 6: and so, like I said, anything above two to one,

994
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 6: I really really like this horse. He's getting a ton

995
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,320
Speaker 6: of class relief. And what I mean by class relief

996
00:49:57,560 --> 00:49:59,800
Speaker 6: is the horse had been running in graded Steaks races,

997
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 6: which is the cream of the crop, the best of

998
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 6: the best. He's now coming down to allowance optional claiming

999
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 6: condition and that's, you know, a decent class relief for

1000
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 6: Temple in this spot. So I think a class relief

1001
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 6: with getting Joelle aboard is going to really play into

1002
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 6: Temple's hands here. And so at five to one, holy cow,

1003
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 6: love this horse. I don't think we're getting five to one,

1004
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:26,359
Speaker 6: but again, anything above two to one absolutely a win

1005
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 6: bet contender.

1006
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 2: Excellent stuff. Mike Conti. Again. You can find his Oaks

1007
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 2: Day and Derby Day cards on actionetwork dot com and

1008
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 2: in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter at

1009
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 2: mcanti ten twenty three, mc o n t I one

1010
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 2: zero two three. Mike Conti, thanks so much.

1011
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 6: To Sean, Thanks so much for having me.

1012
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 2: Before we move on we wanted to show some love

1013
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,839
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1014
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1017
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1024
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1025
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 2: your gambling edge. We're now joined by Action Network editor

1026
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 2: Jeremy Pond covers horse racing and soccer for us. Does

1027
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 2: a great job with everything he handles. Jeremy's coming to

1028
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 2: us from North of the border. Jeremy, Welcome to the podcast.

1029
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 2: Do they care about the Kentucky Derby up in Canada?

1030
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 1: Actually they do.

1031
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 7: There are some Ontario breads that are down there. This

1032
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 7: weekend and obviously woodbuind huge track up here. Not an

1033
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 7: action was supposed to come back, but because of the

1034
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 7: pandemic and because we're in a state of emergency from

1035
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 7: the Toronto GTA, they're not running. So there's plenty of

1036
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 7: peel of the Derby in the big weekend ahead.

1037
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 2: So let's talk about a couple of races leading into

1038
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 2: the derby. This closes out the pick five sequence with

1039
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: race ten and eleven leading into the Derby. It's the

1040
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 2: middle of the pick five sequence and the Derby closes

1041
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 2: it out starting with race ten, the Churchill Downstakes. It's

1042
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:18,800
Speaker 2: a seven furlong sprint on the dirt for four year olds.

1043
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 2: Four thirty one pm post time. Not a ton of

1044
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 2: speed in here. Looks like a pretty evenly matched group.

1045
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 2: Now race is eight to nine. We talked about being

1046
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:30,399
Speaker 2: very difficult races to handicap with Mike Conti. This looks

1047
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 2: like a tough one as well. Number nine went more

1048
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,360
Speaker 2: one of the brueders comes spring last year coming in

1049
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 2: here isn't even the morning line favorite. Jeremy, what do

1050
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:39,879
Speaker 2: you make of this race?

1051
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's it's wide open. I think on

1052
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 7: the undercard you have a lot of balance there. There

1053
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 7: isn't really even in you know, looking at the Marquee Race,

1054
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 7: the Derby, there isn't anybody. Obviously you have essential quality,

1055
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 7: but outside of that, you've got a lot of the

1056
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 7: same type of horses and the same thing here with

1057
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 7: with the Churchill Down Stakes. Obviously Whitmore big fan favorite,

1058
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 7: you know, but I'm I'm I'm leaning more toward his rival.

1059
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 7: I'm leaning more toward flag Staff. You know, he was

1060
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 7: third and the third in the Hot Springs recently, and

1061
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 7: he won the Grade three Commonwealth. So I'm thinking there's

1062
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 7: a time that it's gonna happen where Whitmore is just

1063
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,359
Speaker 7: not gonna show. He's fires pretty much every time out.

1064
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 7: So I'm I'm leaning more toward flag Staff in this uh,

1065
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 7: in this scenario.

1066
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 2: So a couple of the worses I had in my eye,

1067
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 2: the number five Tap It to Win by Mark Cassie,

1068
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 2: dangerous around one turn with really sharp in his four

1069
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: year old debut. Also the number two mind Control multiple

1070
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:41,280
Speaker 2: grade and one stakes winner, ideal distance for him, working

1071
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 2: really well coming to the race, Jeremy, Between those two,

1072
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 2: either of them interest you.

1073
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:48,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say tap It to win.

1074
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:53,919
Speaker 7: Mind control, if I remember correctly, he just uh trying

1075
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 7: to think. I mean, he's won a bunch of steaks,

1076
00:53:56,400 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 7: five year old, you know, sun State thirsty. But I'm

1077
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 7: leaning more toward tap it to win. To get through there.

1078
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 7: I kind of like the post position. He's right off

1079
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 7: a flag staff. Flag staffs canna be in the number

1080
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,919
Speaker 7: four post tap to wins the number five. I feel

1081
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 7: like they're gonna be in that scene. They're gonna be together,

1082
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 7: you know, kind of feeling each other out. And you know,

1083
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 7: I I initially had mind control on there, and I

1084
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 7: believe I read or tease it's gonna be riding, so

1085
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,359
Speaker 7: you can't go wrong, you know, with the three time,

1086
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,479
Speaker 7: I think he's won three in a row. I clip

1087
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:35,239
Speaker 7: the word riding champions championships, you know, finished second in

1088
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 7: the Grade three carter back in April, third a Grade

1089
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:43,240
Speaker 7: one carter back in April, third of Aqueduct mind control

1090
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 7: did so. I'm not sure if he obviously probably needed

1091
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 7: a race, But if you asked me to pick one

1092
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 7: of the two to go along with flag Staff, I

1093
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 7: would go with tap it two win.

1094
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 2: Let's move on a race eleven, the Turf Classic on

1095
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:02,880
Speaker 2: the Turf four year Olds five twenty seven pm Eastern Time.

1096
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:06,240
Speaker 2: It's the race that leads directly into the Kentucky Derby.

1097
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 2: Usually you catch it at the start of the Derby

1098
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 2: broadcast at NBC. A couple interesting courses in here. The

1099
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 2: number two Digital Age won this race last fall, potentially

1100
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,720
Speaker 2: a horse for the course two for two at Churchill Downs,

1101
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 2: top Fuyer figure one oh five in this field bit

1102
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: which you ran on this race the last fall number

1103
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 2: three Colonel Liam, the morning line favorite one point two

1104
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 2: million dollar purchase, Todd Pletcherbarn winner three straight looks like

1105
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:34,799
Speaker 2: an absolute physical specimen. Number four number seven ivar and

1106
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 2: smooth like straight could also get loose on pretty much

1107
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 2: a paceless lead here. Jeremy, how do you see the

1108
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 2: Turf Classic playing out?

1109
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 7: Well, I'm fading Digital Age. He didn't even make my

1110
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 7: top four, the reason being, you know, he's one of

1111
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 7: my COM's from Lemon Drop Kid, one of my favorite

1112
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 7: horses in the history racing. But he won the Turf

1113
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 7: Classic last year, but then five that when eleventh place

1114
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 7: effort in the Reader's Cup Turf Mile, and we haven't

1115
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 7: seen him since, so didn't didn't work?

1116
00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 1: Didn't you know?

1117
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 7: Working put in a put in a prep race prior

1118
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 7: to this, coming off a bad loss, you know, five

1119
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 7: years old. Maybe it's again we're all going to hit

1120
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 7: the decline somewhere. Maybe this is the spot where he's declining.

1121
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 7: I actually picked out a long I've got I've got

1122
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:26,400
Speaker 7: some value on this race. I'm I'm looking at the

1123
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 7: number two count again at ten to one, came in,

1124
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:39,439
Speaker 7: was fantastic in the Frank Kilt. It's the Killmore mile

1125
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 7: at sant Anita. That hit the road one came from

1126
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:45,399
Speaker 7: flying off the pace with Louis Say as a board.

1127
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 7: And if you watch that race back, and I've watched

1128
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 7: it numerous times because I was trying to find somebody

1129
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 7: to come out of that race specifically, and you know,

1130
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 7: he was second to last at that coming around the

1131
00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:59,240
Speaker 7: at the turn, it hit the top of the stretch

1132
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 7: and he just tipped out wide and probably with seven

1133
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 7: or eight horses wide and and wound up driving hard

1134
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 7: to the finish line and got up for third. But

1135
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:12,000
Speaker 7: it was only about a half length behind the two.

1136
00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:15,279
Speaker 7: The to the force to finish one too, So you're

1137
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:18,439
Speaker 7: gonna get another little extra distance here mile and eighth,

1138
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 7: You're get another eighth of a mile. I think he

1139
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 7: wins that race at Santa Anita if he had another

1140
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 7: eighth of the mile. So that's where I'm going with

1141
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 7: with with that race, I feel like again another race

1142
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 7: that's wide up, and I think he can play. It's

1143
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 7: all gonna be you know, who comes how. This thing

1144
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 7: just dictates itself right after the bat These are good

1145
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:40,880
Speaker 7: sized fields too, They're all good horses, So I I

1146
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 7: I'm trying to find some value here. I don't like

1147
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 7: to eat a lot of truck, you know, eat a

1148
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 7: lot of chalk in the in these kind of races,

1149
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 7: these older, older stakes winners. So I'm gona I'm gonna

1150
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 7: go with Sias. I like Saias on the turf.

1151
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 1: I like this. I like this horse again. I'm gonna

1152
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 1: guess his.

1153
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:59,000
Speaker 7: Eyes go off probably around the similar number. He's gonna

1154
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 7: be able to work on trip, he's to be able

1155
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 7: to lay back. He's it coming out of the number

1156
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 7: two slot, number two posts. So we'll see what happens.

1157
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 7: And if you're gonna throw on other people undernath there,

1158
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 7: it's I think Colonel Colonel Liam definitely. And then the

1159
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 7: horse that finished second in that kill Moore mile to

1160
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 7: hit the road was smooth like straight, the number seven,

1161
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 7: and he should go off probably second.

1162
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:22,560
Speaker 1: Or third choice.

1163
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 7: I think he's morning line four to one, and I

1164
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 7: think Colonel Liam will probably go off as the favorite.

1165
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 7: But I think the Count again will get overlooked a

1166
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 7: little bit. But he shouldn't because that was a monster

1167
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 7: effort he threw that last time out at Santina on

1168
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 7: the turf, and I don't see him not improving off that,

1169
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 7: especially getting the extra distance.

1170
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: I love it going with the number two count again

1171
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 2: in the Turf Classic. All right, let's talk about the

1172
00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:48,520
Speaker 2: Derby a little bit now. We already covered the Derby

1173
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 2: sum with Brian Patt and Mike Conti, both of whom

1174
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 2: did an excellent job talking about the pay scenario, talked

1175
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 2: about some live long shots. Mike was pretty high on

1176
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 2: King Fury, the number sixteen. He also had some interest

1177
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:08,600
Speaker 2: in the number seven mandaloon now very divisive Derby field.

1178
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:10,880
Speaker 2: I think the horse that is the key to the

1179
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 2: race and how we break it down is the number fifteen.

1180
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 2: Rock Your World. Cadder River was expected to be the

1181
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 2: pace horse in this race, ended up dropping off. Brian

1182
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,480
Speaker 2: Patten actually disagreed that Rock Your World would be out

1183
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 2: on the lead in this race. He thought there were

1184
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 2: other potential possibilities of horses who could take the front early.

1185
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 2: Who do you see getting to the front and who

1186
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 2: do you like as your top pick in the Kaducka Derby.

1187
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 7: Well, I think in the past, you know, looking at

1188
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 7: the past races of you know, last five six years,

1189
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 7: front front running speed, you want to be near the

1190
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 7: front in this race. You're gonna get out of You're

1191
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:49,000
Speaker 7: gonna get out of trouble. Obviously, the new gate kind

1192
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 7: of has it takes away a lot of the problems,

1193
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 7: not as there's still problems on the rail, but you know,

1194
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 7: if you were inside the one, two, three, four post positions,

1195
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 7: you had to go from the beginning and hold. Whether

1196
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:03,000
Speaker 7: you're a front runner, a stalk or a closer, you

1197
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:04,560
Speaker 7: had to get out of there because if not, you're

1198
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 7: going to get swarmed and you're done. But I think

1199
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 7: this new gate kind of opens up, opens things up

1200
01:00:09,720 --> 01:00:11,440
Speaker 7: a little bit where that's not as much of a problem.

1201
01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 7: So I don't know if Soup and Sandwich goes to

1202
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 7: the front did in the Florida Derby. You know, I

1203
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 7: feel like Essential Quality will try to be up there

1204
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 7: I feel like something will be similar to like authentic.

1205
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:29,280
Speaker 1: Last year he got ahead on the Derby. 'tis a law.

1206
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 7: I think he both broke from the seventeen post. Just

1207
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 7: couldn't get him. He couldn't work out. I mean, just

1208
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 7: your you're seventeen seventeen horses out. You know, the quickest

1209
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 7: way around the track is long as is the closest

1210
01:00:41,200 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 7: to the rail. So I feel like the better horses

1211
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 7: are going to be grouped up there now. If they

1212
01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 7: run and go out there and they blow twenty two

1213
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 7: second quarters and forty five half miles that it could

1214
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 7: potentially just blow the race up, and then you've got problems.

1215
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 7: Then then you've got a situation where it can be

1216
01:00:57,280 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 7: somebody from you know, a mind that bird type of

1217
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 7: horse coming from out of nowhere, you know, a deep closer,

1218
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 7: which there aren't too many of them, but there are

1219
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:07,959
Speaker 7: a few which could really blow up the toe board.

1220
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 7: But I see it probably will hold true to formersts.

1221
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 7: That group of four or five horses running in that pack,

1222
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 7: maybe a couple sitting off, But I don't see anything

1223
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 7: outland ish happening. You know, like that mind that bird

1224
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 7: type of winner, jockamo type of you know fifty to

1225
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 7: one shot coming.

1226
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 1: Through in this.

1227
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 7: So I've been going back and forth on my pick

1228
01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 7: and I've been stuck on the same one since I

1229
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 7: watched it, since I watched him win as Derby Prep.

1230
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:38,720
Speaker 1: And that was rock Your World. That was the horse.

1231
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 1: I had a lot of elm and similar to Barbara.

1232
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 7: I love that horse, former Kentucky Diriment winner obviously who

1233
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:51,400
Speaker 7: broke down in the Preakness, but very similar in the

1234
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:54,040
Speaker 7: approach that Barbara started off as a turf horse and

1235
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 7: not a lot of people know that. And he was

1236
01:01:55,840 --> 01:01:58,120
Speaker 7: successful on turf and they said let's switch him because

1237
01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 7: they had the pedigree to run both pish him over

1238
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 7: to dirt and obviously the rest was history. Same thing

1239
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,400
Speaker 7: with the Rocky World. First two starts with his career

1240
01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 7: on grass, wins both comes back on dirt, goes up

1241
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 7: in the front blistering fractions, you know, a half mile

1242
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:17,760
Speaker 7: and uh, I think it's a quarter and a half mile,

1243
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 7: and I thought he was going to get caught.

1244
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 1: He did not get caught.

1245
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 7: He extraly excelled and Bob Baffert had the Dinah spear

1246
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:24,160
Speaker 7: in that race.

1247
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 1: Who was the favorite?

1248
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 7: I think it was four to five he never got

1249
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:30,320
Speaker 7: near him, and he just drew off. So I don't

1250
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 7: know if a horse like that is going to continue

1251
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 7: to improve. I think that he will. Maybe he bounces

1252
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 7: off that that effort, but he didn't. He wasn't pressured

1253
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 7: in that. I mean, that's the difference between watching the

1254
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 7: Central Quality and the Bluegrass.

1255
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:42,480
Speaker 1: He had to win.

1256
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:45,560
Speaker 7: He had earned that one against highly motivated. Highly motivated

1257
01:02:45,640 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 7: had him at the eighth pole, and Central Quality just

1258
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 7: found another gear and just got him, you know, by

1259
01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 7: a head at the at the wire. Who had to

1260
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 7: work more. I like to look at that so es

1261
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:59,160
Speaker 7: Central Quality had to work to get there. The Rocky World.

1262
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:01,040
Speaker 1: Didn't he was.

1263
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:04,000
Speaker 7: He just seems like a horse that is just eerily

1264
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,280
Speaker 7: similar to Barbara and I I was that horse is

1265
01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:09,040
Speaker 7: one of my favorites of all time as well. I

1266
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 7: will say if I'm gonna if I'm going to look

1267
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 7: at another horse there and people are gonna fade this

1268
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:16,919
Speaker 7: horse because of the post position, but it's number one

1269
01:03:17,040 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 7: known agenda.

1270
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:19,600
Speaker 1: Six to one Morning Line odds.

1271
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:23,880
Speaker 7: I probably he'll probably go off around there. But again, yeah,

1272
01:03:24,320 --> 01:03:28,720
Speaker 7: I rid arties on the horse. The new gate system,

1273
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 7: he's gonna be able to push come off a little bit.

1274
01:03:31,840 --> 01:03:33,680
Speaker 7: He can, he doesn't have to go to the lead,

1275
01:03:35,000 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 7: you know, and he got better on the floor of Derby.

1276
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 7: Another horse that really just stalked the pace, stayed behind

1277
01:03:39,920 --> 01:03:42,400
Speaker 7: the stayed behind the speed and turned it from home,

1278
01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:45,280
Speaker 7: you know. He tipped outside, was clear and drove off.

1279
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 7: Probably will wind up with Rocket World. But those are

1280
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:48,400
Speaker 7: the two I'm really looking at, and those are the

1281
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:50,960
Speaker 7: two all key on top of my EXACTA. I will

1282
01:03:51,040 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 7: I will not be using a central quality on top.

1283
01:03:53,280 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 7: Only two juvenile champions have won the Derby U and

1284
01:03:56,680 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 7: that was a belief street Sense in two thousand and six,

1285
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 7: who had the benefit of racing that Breeder's Cup at

1286
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:05,200
Speaker 7: Churchill Downs so we knew the track, and then in

1287
01:04:05,240 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 7: twenty sixteen I believe it was niquist. I will use

1288
01:04:08,280 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 7: the central quality in the in the exotics, but not

1289
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 7: on top.

1290
01:04:11,480 --> 01:04:13,960
Speaker 2: If you're so you mentioned you'd use two horses on

1291
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 2: top and an exact is if you're going deeper, if

1292
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 2: you're looking at trifectas superfectas in terms of structure, how

1293
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 2: many horses are you willing to use on top? How

1294
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 2: many horses are you willing to use underneath? And do

1295
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 2: you look to build any of those around a key

1296
01:04:29,200 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 2: horse will use so a lot of the times when

1297
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 2: I'm building a trifector a superfecta, for example, I'll use

1298
01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 2: like a four to one eight method or a four

1299
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 2: one eight eight method where I'm trying to get a

1300
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 2: favorite long shot into the top three, and I'll use

1301
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:44,560
Speaker 2: him in second and third by himself and then kind

1302
01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 2: of use four horses on either side around him. What's

1303
01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 2: kind of the what's kind of a limit you set

1304
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 2: yourself in terms of what you'll pay for a minimum

1305
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 2: price ticket, like a fifty cent trifecta ticket, or how

1306
01:04:56,280 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 2: many horses are you willing to use in each slot?

1307
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think with a derby, it's a legit drinkers

1308
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:01,720
Speaker 7: like you know, you tend to bet a little bit

1309
01:05:01,760 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 7: more on the derby this once a year, get a

1310
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 7: little more action involved. Things can happen where you can

1311
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:08,760
Speaker 7: get some massive payoffs you as you've seen in the past.

1312
01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:13,760
Speaker 7: But this race, I'll probably box up in a triple.

1313
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:17,800
Speaker 7: I'll probably box up five horses as one play five

1314
01:05:17,840 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 7: horses for a dollar I think sixty dollars. You know,

1315
01:05:21,200 --> 01:05:22,600
Speaker 7: I'll probably do something like that, but then I'll cut

1316
01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 7: back into a fifty cent where I'll then I'll spread

1317
01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 7: it out a little bit. Same thing with the super

1318
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 7: I'll do. I'll wind up messing around with with a

1319
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 7: fifty cent superfecta. Depending where you're at and wagering and

1320
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:34,600
Speaker 7: betting in North America, ten cents superfectas are out there,

1321
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 7: you know.

1322
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:37,480
Speaker 1: So that's that's.

1323
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:39,520
Speaker 7: Kind of the way I will go about it with

1324
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 7: the exact as with this race, I'm gonna key and

1325
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 7: the other ones we just spoke about, I'm gonna box,

1326
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,440
Speaker 7: but this one, I'm just gonna key on top, you know,

1327
01:05:48,440 --> 01:05:50,600
Speaker 7: non Agenda and Rocket World. Then underneath, I'm gonna wind

1328
01:05:50,640 --> 01:05:54,200
Speaker 7: up using number seven Mandaloon who was fifteen to one,

1329
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 7: Number nine Hot Ride, Charlie Louisiana Derby winner nine to

1330
01:05:57,880 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 7: two Dynamic one, number eleven who is twenty to one

1331
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:04,320
Speaker 7: Morning Line, and then I'll have the Central Quality.

1332
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 1: Who's your two to one, two to one favorite.

1333
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:07,600
Speaker 7: We'll probably go off at two to one as well

1334
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 7: as number seven highly Motivated, the second the runner up

1335
01:06:11,120 --> 01:06:13,200
Speaker 7: in the Bluegrass to the Central Quality, because I feel

1336
01:06:13,200 --> 01:06:14,840
Speaker 7: like those two horses, along with the rock Your World,

1337
01:06:14,880 --> 01:06:17,360
Speaker 7: non Agenda, there are your main four. I know, the

1338
01:06:17,400 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 7: wise guys are going to be on the hot ride Charlie's,

1339
01:06:20,880 --> 01:06:24,200
Speaker 7: you know, horses like that Mandaloon, perhaps because that's Brad

1340
01:06:24,280 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 7: Cox who trains Essential Quality.

1341
01:06:25,960 --> 01:06:26,880
Speaker 1: That's his second horse.

1342
01:06:27,520 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 7: So your stablemate sometimes outdoes your you know, the main

1343
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 7: horse of the group. But yeah, it all varies. It

1344
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 7: depends on what my feeling is. But I feel like

1345
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 7: no An Agenda and Rock your World are going to

1346
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 7: give me the most value and if the central quality

1347
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 7: beats me, he beats me. I mean it's I just

1348
01:06:45,360 --> 01:06:46,840
Speaker 7: don't want to take two. I can't take two to

1349
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:48,160
Speaker 7: one on a favor. I don't think I've taken two

1350
01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:51,200
Speaker 7: to one on a favorite at the Derby ever. I

1351
01:06:51,200 --> 01:06:52,560
Speaker 7: mean I think tis the Law might have gone for

1352
01:06:52,560 --> 01:06:54,600
Speaker 7: five to two last year and that was probably the

1353
01:06:54,640 --> 01:06:56,680
Speaker 7: probably the lowest I've ever gone.

1354
01:06:56,880 --> 01:06:58,800
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Jeremy Pond. You can follow on

1355
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:01,440
Speaker 2: Twitter Jeremy Pond A E R E M Y P

1356
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 2: O N D one word. Check out all this content

1357
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,760
Speaker 2: at actionnetwork dot Com. Should have a few pieces coming

1358
01:07:06,760 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 2: out over the next couple of days as we get

1359
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:12,400
Speaker 2: through Kentucky Oaks Day and in kent Kentucky Derby Saturday.

1360
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 2: Jeremy thank you so much for joining us.

1361
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 1: Thanks Sean, see you soon.

1362
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:18,440
Speaker 2: That's the show for today. Thanks so much to our

1363
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 2: guests Brian Patton, Mike Conti, and Jeremy Pond. Make sure

1364
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:26,000
Speaker 2: to rate, review, and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts,

1365
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 2: download the show and listen on Spotify. Best of luck

1366
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:32,080
Speaker 2: this weekend, and of course it may the horse gods

1367
01:07:32,160 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 2: be with you.

1368
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:45,040
Speaker 4: We're finished talking.